CAC

bnewhard

I've spent a lot of looking into SoFi and actually put together my own short report that I released a few weeks before Muddy Waters. But I'm not famous, so who knows how many people have read it. it. A manageable overview of credibility issues with Sofi is here: [https://bnewhard.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-sofi-management/](https://bnewhard.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-sofi-management/) and the rest of the report is on that same website. I will just focus on the heart of your theory, which is the "flywheel"/ Financial Services Productivity Loop. What you say lines up with the narrative that SoFi management routinely disseminates. But it's at odds with the facts, which SoFi omits, but which are available through alternative data sources. It actually turns out that SoFi's overall overhead and efficiency are industry worst. [Federal Reserve Data](https://bnewhard.com/SoFi_Q3_2025_BHCPR.pdf) (as of Q3 2025) shows that SoFi’s profitability and efficiency ratios and overhead burden are far worse than the [bottom 5% of all banks](https://bnewhard.com/BHCPR_PeerGrp1_Q32025.pdf) with over $10 billion in assets. These are 134 banks, consisting of the bank holding companies in BHCPR Peer Group 1. (SoFi is in Peer Group 9 as an “atypical bank” but you can compare its metrics with the statistics the Federal Reserve publishes for Peer Group 1). This makes SoFi, a $50 billion bank, just about the most bloated, least efficient, and least profitable (on an asset ratio basis) big bank in the country. These numbers reflect that SoFi spends 86 cents to bring in a dollar, when the average is 60 cents, and the 95th worst percentile is 77 cents.  SoFi’s gross overhead expense as a percentage of average assets is 7.37%, three times higher than average, far higher than the worst 5% of peers, and more than double even the worst 10% of peers (peer 95th percentile 4.20%, peer 90th percentile 3.13%, average 2.38%). SoFi’s overhead burden (net overhead/assets) is equally negative. This metric accounts for SoFi’s fee income and after deducting such fees, SoFi’s remaining overhead still amounts to 4.11% of total assets – roughly double the worst 5% of peers (peer 95th percentile 2.20%, average 1.36%). This metric, sometimes called the burden ratio, underscores how much operating expense load SoFi carries relative to its size. This track record extends even to SoFi’s occupancy expenses, where SoFi surprisingly performs poorly. Its occupancy expenses, as a percentage of average assets sits at 0.46%, also far below the median (0.23%) and 95th worst percentile (0.41%). Even without any branch locations to operate, SoFi’s basic occupancy expenses are more burdensome than the legacy banks which are encumbered by physical locations. As a related matter to CAC/overhead, SoFi bank account sizes are tiny compared to peer banks. Data submitted by SoFi to federal banking regulators (FFIEC) show that average non-retirement bank accounts at SoFi are far smaller relative to a number of peer banks, including other newer, digital only banks. As a representative comparison, the average is $3.5k at SoFi vs $17k at Synchrony, $24k at Ally Bank, $38k at Lending Club, and $43k at American Express. As of year end 2025, SoFi had about $39.8 billion in non-retirement deposits spread across 11,137,225 accounts, which results in the $3.5k average. [Data is from Schedule RC-O from SoFi Bank’s Q4 2025 Call Report](https://bnewhard.com/Sofi_Call_Report.PDF). Although I do not have definitive proof, what I believe is happening is that SoFi spends a ton of new account bonuses and referral fees. This effectively generates low value, low balance accounts. SoFi bonuses are promoted heavily as easy money or as a “side hustle” online (even all over Reddit) At the same time, SoFi heavily leans on metrics like “new members” in each earnings report, without getting into granular detail on whether those “new members” are really actively using their accounts. So I think SoFi internally pushes to do everything it can to add as many members as possible. Given the massive number of really small accounts (on average) there’s a good possibility there is a material number of largely dormant/non-bona fide accounts opened up by customers to generate bonuses or referral fees. It is costing SoFi a fortune to keep the new member "train" going, which is why SoFi's overhead and efficiency metrics are so bad. Bottom line, my personal position is against SoFi and I've bought puts. Obviously do your own DD and this is not financial advice.

I_am_Nerman

DAX, FTSE, CAC all still closed Plenty of movement happens during US cash session. Size can only move during market hours. It 100% depends on volume.

DietFoods

DAX, FTSE, CAC 40 are in a correction. Do we really think the S&P won't follow?

EpicOfBrave

Just don’t invest in US. There are another markets - Real Estate, DAX, FTSE, CAC.

EpicOfBrave

There are other markets - DAX, CAC, FTSE, Real Estate. US is not the only option.

L_DUB_U

I copied your comment into chatgpt because I am slightly hungover and not feeling like figuring it all out myself. With currency exchange it's a 2% win for the CAC. However all of those gains are lost after fees and currency conversion. I'm not here to argue I have owned VXUS since 2019. It's an ETF I just let ride because for many years it just remained flat. In 2019 I purchased it for 50.96 a share and in December 2024 it was 59 a share. It wasn't until this past year that there was much growth. The shares I bought in 2019 have a 46% growth where my share of SPY bought in 2019 have132%. Being diverse is important but I don't think I'm going to change how much international stock I buy from what I am doing.

Stockholm-Syndrom

I think a fair comparison would be: if a year ago you had converted your dollars in euros, and invested them in the CAC, would you have made more money than investing in S&P?

L_DUB_U

If I Google those exchanges it says the French CAC 40 is down 5.29% and the S&P500 is up 14.9% over the past year. Am I looking at the wrong thing?

No_Purpose8162

Over that same period, it actually looks quite weak in comparison. Of course, it’s a relatively short timeframe. But for context, the French CAC 40 is up around +5.8%, and the UK FTSE 100 has delivered roughly +20.6% over the same period.

Arsno

The short story is that every asset is up and rising because of rising wealth inequality. The ultrawealthy need to park their increasing wealth in any asset, and that explains why its not JUST the US stock market at all time highs, but also the IBEX, FTSE, CAC, Bovespa, Nikkei, etc. Also real estate, gold, fine art, collectibles, EVERYTHING. Bad news doesn't have the same effect when the ultrawealthy just have to park their cash somewhere.

SpicyLemonZest

You're looking at American stock indexes. From Jan 2000 to Jan 2010, Europe had FTSE 100 down 17%, CAC 40 down 29%, STOXX 600 down 37%. (Direct comparisons can be misleading, because some of the performance gap is explained by the European preference for dividends over stock buybacks, but I've exhausted the amount of effort I'm putting into Reddit comments this morning and eyeballing total-return indexes they don't seem to be all that different.)

greenpride32

>Stocks and investing have been part of American culture for years with a rich history  This isn't really true for your typical "Main Street" retail investor. 401k plans are only about 50 years old. Large corporations adopted it quickly but took some time for smaller companies. Investing in stocks was inaccessible for most retail until mid to late 1990's due to emergence of online/electronic brokerages. Before that, you'd have to phone your broker and fees were quite high, because there weren't any other options. Also, back then you had to buy a full block of (100) shares. There were no odd lots (something less than 100 shares), never mind fractionals. If a broker has a client investing in chucnks of $25k, $50k or $100k or $250k, do you think they will take any calls from people investing $200/500/1000/5000 at a time? Maybe, but you are last in line, assuming that amount can even buy a full lot. You also have to consider inflation. Some share prices might seem low back then, but dollars were not as common. The house I grew up in cost $50k USD in 1980. Today the same house is $900k. You could buy a can of soda at the vending machine for $0.20 or $0.25 in 1980; today maybe $1.50-2.50 depending on location. When all the online brokerages started, they'd all undercut the commissions per trade. It used to be $25, then $20, then $13.... $10, $5... to point they all became free. That's right, I used to pay $8-15 every time I bought or sold a stock. It's less than 10 years since those fees went to zero everywhere. As I live in the US, I am less familar LSE DAX CAC - but they are substantially smaller than the US markets, so probably less push to market services. But here in the US, it's just constant flow of IPO's since mid-late 70's. There is so much money flow and potential to market services.

bnewhard

I am putting together a deep dive into SoFi. I should be posting full thing this evening. Interested in any initial feedback. ·       **Fair Value.** SoFi uses models to value its loan inventory. Non-cash adjustments over par go straight to earnings. SoFi used to get a lot of heat for this back in 2022/2023 (since the adjustments were all on paper, and SoFi’s models showed that its loans were far more valuable than peers). Problem has not gone away. Historically and currently SoFi’s loan valuation model treats its unsecured consumer and student loans as less risky than investment grade corporate bonds. SoFi papered over these issues by originating more and more new loans (with artificial model gains) to wash out paper losses being taken on older overvalued loans as they pay off or are sold. There are lots of subtle indications of this: o   Servicing volume/gross income up while net servicing income trends down and turns negative (2025). (Full data only available due to Federal Reserve filings, omitted in SEC filings). Servicing assets are valued at fair value like loans, this data is consistent with a “bleed back” of overvalued assets o   Federal Reserve fillings show $700M ($547M, removing $173M in hedges) in FV adjustments flowing straight to earnings. That’s more than the $482M in net income for 2025. This full data is also omitted in SoFi’s SEC filings o   Based on all the serious FV model issues, there is very good reason to believe that there should be $0  or negative FV adjustments, i.e. wiping out all profit and then some. Same situation for last year. This is extremely dangerous for SoFi’s regulatory capital situation, as these “earnings” flowed through to equity, and loans in inventory make up a huge portion (70%) of SoFi’s asset base. ·       **Sky High Customer Acquisition Costs, Low Return.** SoFi’s central strategy is to be a diverse, one stop shop of consumer finance – banking, investments, loans, financial advice, etc. In fact, SoFi’s business is about 81% loans (interest earned, selling loans, servicing loans). SoFi has paid a very heavy price acquiring marginal customers to grow its “one shop” initiatives and has industry high customer acquisition costs, undermining its “nimble/efficient” depiction of itself. o   SoFi’s high CAC can be seen just by comparing financial data across SEC filings. I did so through Q3 2025, and SoFi’s spend on CAC was higher than peers Upstart, LendingClub, Pagay, Oportun, and Capital One. o   Federal Reserve BHCPR data confirms that SoFi’s basic efficiency metrics sit beyond the 95th percentile of its peer group across multiple measures. Example: total overhead is 7.37% of avg assets vs 4.20% at the 95th percentile peer. That’s 75% ABOVE 95th percentile peer. On an income basis, overhead is 85.98% of adjusted operating income vs 76.61% at the 95th percentile o   FFEIC (bank regulatory data) shows that SoFi’s bank deposit size metrics are comically low compared to peers ($3.5k vs $17k at Synchrony, $24 at Ally Bank, $38k at Lending Club, $43k at American Express, etc. o   ADV forms filed with SEC show that SoFi Wealth’s assets under management metrics show the same pattern: lots of small accounts - average size of $5.2K. More akin to a micro-brokerage like an Acorn ($2.1k) or Stash ($1.8k) than full service brokerages (e.g. Betterment: 47k, Wealthfront $66.8k, Vanguard $429k) **Tech Platform.** SoFi spent $2B+ acquiring tech companies. Tech is only about 9% of the company’s revenue. And the Tech Platform is a money-loser. The Tech Platform’s earnings have become increasingly reliant on increasing “intercompany fees,” which is SoFi’s other segments “paying” the Tech Platform. The fees don’t flow through to consolidated earnings. Without intercompany fees, and without a one time $33M cancellation fee from Chime in Q4, the Tech Platform would have lost money in Q4 2025. Yet SoFi refused to take an impairment.Comically, SoFi’s CEO repeatedly told investors the tech platform was monetizing existing clients with new deals, using identical language, in call after call. The footnotes in SoFi’s filings showed otherwise. https://preview.redd.it/9iqax77tqgmg1.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=349f5834c3b3809e7896650db74b47b4676455d6 I found an interesting quote from an early 2000’s NYT profile on CEO Anthony Noto (in bold) that I kept coming back to as I did my DD. **Some of those mistakes were noticed by Goldman Sachs's own technology bankers, who made tough-minded critiques of Mr. Noto in an evaluation of his work from August 1999 to July 2000, a period that included the early months of the Nasdaq collapse. In the evaluation, a managing director in Goldman's corporate finance division said that "Anthony undermines his credibility by appearing as more of an advocate/defender (or at worst a company spokesman) for his companies' success rather than as an unbiased analyst." Mr. Noto declined to comment on the evaluation.** My position: short via puts. More details to come tonight in a standalone post. PS SoFi options trade weekly. Lots of OI, liquidity out there.

DCHamar

Nikkei green, DAX green, FTSE 100 green, CAC 40 green, American'ts bigly red

AntoniaFauci

I think I’d seen your previous concern about how could a CAC issue cause 30% revenue collapse versus just coming out flat. I believe I saw some information from about a year ago where they talked about around half of customers re-ordering.

Separate_Anxiety3347

Impressive growth and earnings print. For BNPL names, I’d still track 4 risk controls: delinquency trend, funding-cost sensitivity, take-rate stability, and customer-acquisition payback (LTV/CAC). If they can keep subscriber quality high while scaling app engagement, the guidance raise looks more credible than a one-quarter spike.

MrDeath2000

And of course thermie price to book is going down when they are growing so fast. You pay up front for the customer and then it takes a while for it to be earned back. Their LTV/CAC was 3,5:1 so of course they will spend as much as possible. This will turn around fast due to operating leverage and once it does the stock price will be a lot higher.

Icy_Letterhead4893

dude that's already past 12-18 months lol. ex-glp ARPU was like 55 bucks in Q2, gross margin 80%, CAC is 929... that's like 21 months to payback and that's on GROSS PROFIT ONLY. management says "under a year" because they don't count ops and G&A which is just lmao

Otherwise_Wave9374

Zoomd is interesting, a lot of these marketing-adjacent SaaS plays look cheap until you dig into client concentration + retention. When you evaluate these, do you look at net revenue retention or gross retention anywhere (even if its not reported)? For small-cap "SaaS-ish" names, the quality of revenue matters more than the growth rate in my experience. Weve got a few notes on SaaS growth metrics and what to watch (NRR, CAC payback, etc) here if you want a quick read: https://blog.promarkia.com/

EpicOfBrave

**Leave the US market** Many investors are leaving US and allocating huge cash flows in FTSE, CAC, DAX, even Chinese and Indian markets. I don’t see anytime soon returns from the US markets in the same magnitudes as of 2010-2021.

Otherwise_Wave9374

That divergence is interesting. Feels like infra is getting rewarded for clear demand + usage based expansion, while a lot of SaaS is getting punished for slower seat growth and tougher renewals. From a marketing lens, I wonder how much is just CAC inflation and buyers needing more proof before committing to long contracts. SaaS companies that can tighten positioning and show fast time-to-value will probably be the ones that bounce back first. Ive been reading and saving some SaaS GTM notes here: https://blog.promarkia.com/ if you like that angle.

Nuppys

When you see that the CAC 40, with 0% growth, is outperforming the S&P 500, you know it's time to go to sleep.

PleasantAnomaly

CAC To follow France's CAC40 index

Boodiiii

NIKKEI LONG- seems wise 57445 entry 57755 TP will update when tp hits or stop also posted these earlier today CAC40 short opened 8405.2 entry 8338 tp https://www.reddit.com/r/FuturesTrading/s/szOnh8aqj8 and AUD CHF LONG - Entry 0.54877 TP - 0.54950 https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/s/UNm06N3jEp will post us equities after market open

Boodiiii

also posted this CAC40 short opened 8405.2 entry 8338 tp and AUD CHF LONG - Entry 0.54877 TP - 0.54950 but they both got downvoted in 30 seconds? so just got rid of them so odd

Boodiiii

CAC40 short opened 8405.2 entry 8338 tp

costafilh0

Grok + Twitter = approximately 600 million. But that's okay, let's make you happy. 500 million users, happy? Do you have any idea what the CAC is for 500 million customers? It was CHEAP!

costafilh0

Because it's not just a rocket company anymore, it's also an AI company now. And people who are used to using GROK in their robots, cars, computers, and smartphones and social media will become a huge source of revenue. CAC is a huge problem for most, but not for a company who already have the eyeballs of hundreds of millions of people.

Otherwise_Wave9374

Solid writeup. Curious, do they break out how much of that revenue is recurring SaaS vs more services/implementation? In logistics "AI" plays, the story can look amazing until you realize its mostly one-off deals. Also would love to know CAC/payback if theyre selling into enterprise, that usually makes or breaks it. Not directly about the stock, but if youre thinking about how SaaS narratives get priced (and how to sanity check them), theres a quick framework here: https://blog.promarkia.com/

Otherwise_Wave9374

Cool writeup. The pivot to a recurring SaaS model (Apex) is the part I would watch the closest, recurring revenue quality tends to change how the market values these stories. For anyone doing DD, I would look at: - gross margin trend and services vs software mix - customer concentration and contract length - churn or renewal signals (even if only directional) - CAC payback if they are selling in the US Not my usual niche, but if you are into how SaaS metrics translate to valuation, there are some solid explainers here: https://blog.promarkia.com/

iannoyyou101

FTSE and CAC40 futes inverse ES after Paris open. This is literally EU banks being forced to liquidate their US equities and buy EU indices because of risk management.

sandygws

FTSE & CAC are up so fuck knows who is selling.

sandygws

FTSE & CAC are up, DAX is slightly down.

Otherwise_Wave9374

Not touching the ticker call, but if youre looking at these low-float AI/SaaS names, be careful about separating story from fundamentals. Id look for real revenue trajectory, customer concentration, cash burn/runway, and whether the product actually has repeatable enterprise adoption vs one-off pilots. If youre new to evaluating SaaS metrics, there are a few quick primers (gross margin, retention, CAC/LTV) here: https://blog.promarkia.com/ - might help frame the risk.

macromind

Interesting breakdown. Not really marketing related, but one thing I would watch here is the dilution mechanics and whether the SaaS narrative is actually translating into recurring revenue growth, not just AI buzzwords. Micro caps can be brutal if the business model is not compounding. If you do end up researching their go to market, look for CAC payback, churn, and net retention, those usually tell the real story. Side note, if you are tracking competitor messaging or building a GTM doc for stuff like this, keeping notes and scheduling small research updates helps, we sometimes use https://www.promarkia.com/ to stay consistent across channels.

TonyzTone

It provides context that brings us right into 1980 though. Governments began losing faith in the gold reserves backing the USD, demanded convertibility in gold. This began to spike gold and drop the USD. Nixon closed the gold window, and further eroded confidence in the dollar while investors fled to gold. Basically, by mid-1980, the [flight away from the USD](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=ALL) as a result of the Nixon shock had abated, and cash flows began entering back into the system. This rise in DXY almost exactly mirrors the [rise in interest rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) which peaked in Aug. 1981, though DXY continue rising for a few years longer. Through the 80s, [French markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAC_40#/media/File:CAC40_1980-2021.png) were on a tear all the way up to the adoption of the Euro. As were [Dutch markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AEX_index#/media/File:AEX_index.png). [British markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index#/media/File:FTSE_100_Index_Line_Chart_(1984-2024)_v1.jpg) were rocketing. The [Nikkei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikkei_225#/media/File:Nikkei_225(1970-).svg) was the place to be in the 80s (get out by 1990!). Gold was no longer a safe haven as money rushed towards growth in equities, financial innovation in terms of a fixed income revolution, and safety once against existed in US Treasuries. I'm arguing that simply saying "zoom out" doesn't provide much context. Because if you do zoom out, you see structural changes that could indicate gold is a premier investment for decades. Ups and downs for sure, but largely up and to the right.

vansterdam_city

Disclaimer: I'm long RDDT at \~$60 post IPO. A small position that has 3x'd. The main thing which got me into RDDT is actually the ads. For me they have been increasing in quality and relevance steadily over the last 18 months. I've actually spent money on products they've advertised. Here is my basic thesis: Reddit knows WAY MORE about me and my interests than Meta does. I'm not a big social media guy. But on Reddit I'm anonymous and can talk about whatever random interests I actually have, which I would never talk about on regular socials linked to my identity. This means Reddit will have vastly better targeting towards me, which drives better CPC and CAC metrics for certain niches of advertising. Dawn and Toyota will still do fine on Meta. But for example indie games and financial/trading services are things I'll never get from Meta which I do get from Reddit and have become a customer for. Their current ARPU is far below Meta, there is a parity trade there which gives Reddit a ton of room to grow.

Extension-Temporary4

Hey mate, if you look at my comments you’ll see I’m a seasoned investor who specifically looks for opportunities like this - not your typical Reddit user (I’ll share more via dm as to why I’m even on here but it has to do with my API I built).  Mind sharing the company; Even via DM? In exchange I’ll give you a few others you can look at. I’m a quant with an algo/API that detects micro and small cap opportunities like the one you’ve identified. Happy to share more info in a show of good faith if you’re willing to name the company, I’ll also run a full fundamental analysis and send you my findings. Thanks!  And to answer your initial question — yes. This could potentially be a great opportunity. What’s the enterprise value? look at the debt and debt servicing. Also look at the terms of the credit facility and maturity date (is it coking due soon, is there a balloon, is it interest only, etc.). Look at the cash flows from operations. If the company generates sufficient cash to service the debt, even if it needs to refi a 36 month loan or something, and faces exposure to a higher rate or a non interest only loan, then it could be a grand slam long term buy and hold. I also look at how its financials are trending year to year — e.g, is revenue trending up or down over the last 5 or so years, net income, free cash flow, margins, customer acquisition, CAC, inventory, salaries and payroll, etc.  basically I want to know if the company is growing or not, and if that growth is coming at the expense of margins/profitability, and if management is over compensated, etc. the arbitrage re opportunities a great jump off point tho and a promising sign of a potentially great long term value play.  

moejurray

I wouldn't have guessed this as I mostly watch CAC for reasons. But: [FTX vs Euro indices 1yr](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EaH2TrDl_pOdEk8MDjRGYlXz72iVvfgL/view?usp=drivesdk)

TWSTrader

**Institutional background here (14 years).** This is the **"Retaliation Leg"** of the trade war algorithm. To answer your question: The market usually reacts to this type of news in three distinct phases. **Phase 1: The "Headline Algo" Shock (Pre-Market/Open)** * **Reaction:** Algos scan keywords: "Suspend," "Escalation," "Trade War." * **Result:** Futures gap down. The **DAX** (German Index) and **CAC** (French Index) will likely lead the drop, dragging US Futures with them. * **The Trade:** Expect an immediate spike in the **VIX** and a flight to the **Dollar (DXY)**. Paradoxically, bad news for US trade often pushes the Dollar *up* (Safety trade), which hurts US multi-nationals even more (FX headwinds). **Phase 2: The "Priced In" Calculation (Mid-Day)** * Institutional desks will ask: *"Does suspending this deal actually change cash flows Q1?"* * **The Reality:** A "suspended approval" is a political delay, not an economic tariff. It is a "Freeze," not a "Tax." * If the market already dumped \~2% on the Tariff threat (the "Rumor"), the suspension of the deal (the "News") might actually be the **Near-Term Bottom.** The market hates uncertainty. Knowing the deal is dead is "Certainty." **Phase 3: The Sector Rotation** Smart money won't just "sell everything." They will rotate. * **Sell:** US Multi-nationals with high European exposure (McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Apple, Tesla). If the EU retaliates, they target "Swing State" goods (Bourbon, Harleys) and Big Tech. * **Buy:** **Domestic US Small Caps (IWM)**. Why? A company that sells insulation in Ohio doesn't care if the EU suspends a trade deal. They are insulated from the Geopolitics. **My Take:** Watch the **EUR/USD** currency pair. * If the Euro *crashes* on this news, it means the market thinks Europe loses more than the US. * If the Euro *rallies*, it means the market thinks the EU has leverage. Don't panic sell into the headline. This is "Diplomatic Posturing" (The stick), not "Economic Destruction" (The stone). Not yet.

I_am_Nerman

They're going lower. Like CAC40

kaapooj

CAC futes down 2%

tika_dengu

Is there a futures market for DAX, CAC, FTSE, etc.? Curious how they react!

Ancient-Stock-3261

I get the bullish take; strong DD and way better than the usual WSB hype posts. That said, I think most people are focusing on the *story* and not the risk that actually matters: **when growth stops turning into margin expansion**. ARPAM flattening is usually the first crack, not CAC or competition. How I look at names like this: * Separate growth metrics from profit behavior * Watch product attach by income cohort, not averages * Use AI to flag inflection points *before* price reacts I’m not bearish on CHYM; just saying most bags are made by being right, then staying right too long.

Brilliant_Builder697

If I had to pick 10 from your list for a “hold for years” portfolio, I’d bias toward durable cash-flow machines + clear secular tailwinds, and keep the true lottery tickets to a minimum. My 10 would be: Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Oracle, Uber, The Trade Desk, Shift4 Payments, Duolingo, e.l.f. Beauty, and Nebius Group. The “core 4” here are Amazon / Meta / Broadcom / Oracle: they’re not risk-free, but they have real moats (distribution, attention, silicon + infrastructure software, enterprise switching costs) and, crucially, the ability to self-fund AI capex without living or dying by capital markets. That matters a lot in 2026+ where the winners are often the ones who can keep investing through down cycles. Then I’d round out with “picks-and-shovels to digitization”: Uber (local commerce + logistics scale), The Trade Desk (independent ad-buying platform in a world of walled gardens), and Shift4 (payments + software embedded in merchants). These aren’t as “inevitable” as megacap tech, but they’re the kind of businesses where execution + scale can compound for a long time, while still being very exposed to regulation, competition, and margin pressure. For consumer/growth, I’d keep it to names that look like they can compound without constant reinvention: Duolingo (habit + subscription flywheel) and e.l.f. Beauty (brand + distribution momentum). These can work great, just understand they’re more vulnerable to “vibes” risk (taste shifts, CAC creep, copycats) than the infrastructure/platform names. Finally, I’d use Nebius as the single “higher-beta” slot because it’s basically an AI infrastructure bet, high upside, but also higher risk (capex intensity, customer concentration, sentiment whiplash).

AverageUnited3237

Starlink can do text barely, the claim that they have a service that's live right now is a marketing claim. ASTS is launching full 5g from space, true broadband, where by their own admission Starlink is 3 years behind at least. ASTS has Verizon, att, Vodaphone, vi, etc, a 3b user install base is there once their service launches. ASTS and Starlink currently have fundamentally different products and business models. The more you know the more you realize SpaceX and Starlink are not this omnipotent crushing force no one can compete with, and in this case against ASTS it might be the other way around if anything. Starlink currently does fixed broadband direct to dish (buy a Starlink terminal, broadband internet speeds for $120 a month) and a very unreliable texting service that barely works. Sometimes the text goes through, but after minutes of waiting, sometimes not. Their claim to having any type of service if just a marketing stnt and not even the same product or market as what ASTS is going for, which is true 5g broadband direct to device. Starlink is currently incapable of true 5g, it's a physics problem, small satellite and antenna cannot physically transmit broadband at scale to a phone on earth. Starlink tries to compensate for this with a large constellation - they claim they will need 6000-10000 of their NEXT GEN satellites to do true 5g service, which by their own optimistic claims is 3ish years away... and that's an elon timeline. Starlink service now is text only, it's a different product to what ASTS is launching this year and it will be Starlink who is the one that will prove they need to catch up to ASTS after this year. ASTS already has superior spectrum exclusivity via MNOs, superior tech, younger, growing faster, better business model, and further along in r&d. Starlink has 11m subscribers, ASTS can get that in a weekend once the service turns on. It's a global monopoly in this market for the foreseeable future, assuming they launch 45-60 satellites this year. SpaceX is dependent on Starlink v3 for true 5g due to antenna size, ( it's basic physics. You Need a large satellite). V3 is too big to fit in a rocket fare on any current flight, so it's dependent on starship, which has trouble recently. Best case, very generously, starship and by extension v3 won't deploy their satellites until 2027/2028, most likely by 2029/2030 given space timelines. V3 is also more comparable to block 1, ASTS is launching block 2 currently (just did the first with ISRO). By 2029/2030, ASTS will be on block 3 or 4. SpaceX and Starlink are not this insurmountable beast. ASTS will have a massive margin once the constellation is e deployed, their CAC will be near zero, their install base is already there to the tune of billions of devices, and no one is competing with them for the foreseeable future on a tech landscape - let alone on a spectrum acquisition and MNO partnership basis. Anyway, even assuming Starlink can compete, I'll give. Then credit and say they're only 1-2 years behind - the market is HUGE IMO. Analysts have no way to value it so their models are broken, numbers will be concrete this year and the conversation will shift from tech/binary risk to "wow how big will this be"? Buying asts is a bet not on 2026 nevessarily, just continued execution. You're free to make your own your assumptions about adoption, personally I think 1b users by 2029/2030 for atss is realistic if not conservative. Then the question comes down to ARPU, margins, valuation, and non communication (government) revenues - which will be significant.

Cultural_Thing1712

NGL European indexes are a pretty good buy these days. You don't get nuked by USD conversion rates and they have solid returns. IBEX35 returned 50%, DAX returned 21.5%. Even the CAC40's 16.1% return was better than SPY.

KD_Hub

The CAC payback + long-term operating leverage angle is the key thing most people overlook. One thing that’s helped me with names like HIMS is using AI to run quick bull/base/bear cases on subs, margins, and dilution - it makes it way easier to see where the real risk is vs just headline noise. Definitely adds clarity before sizing a position.

AggieDem

If the CAC 40 dives, does that mean people are left holding the baguette?

graavejrsdag

CAC 40 futures not trading yet?

mammal365

Many companies have already reported a decrease in CAC from AI used in advertising. New college graduate unemployment is nearly 10%, because most of the entry level jobs can be done with a generic LLM nevermind specialized AI tools. Idk what's up with this odd group of people thinking AI is some myth the largest companies on the planet are flushing billions down the toilet for. You're the same type of person in the 90's that said that the Internet is just a fad for nerds. Just because you personally don't understand how AI works and is used doesn't mean it's useless.

cloud_cafe

NIKKE green, DAX green, FTSE green, CAC green Only fatties hate money

tripletc

RKT. **Amazon of Mortgages:** They've built an end-to-end digital ecosystem by integrating origination and servicing. Think searching for a home, financing it, and managing the loan, all in one place. This vertical integration is HUGE. **Rate-Proof Business:** Unlike pure mortgage lenders, RKT's massive, fee-based servicing portfolio acts as a shield when interest rates are high, making the business much more stable. **AI & Efficiency:** They're pouring money into tech, driving down the cost to acquire customers (CAC) and closing loans faster than the competition. **Lower Rates:** When the Fed inevitably cuts rates, RKT's digital scale and huge customer list mean they'll capture a massive surge in refinancing and purchase volume. **Cheap Valuation:** The market is treating RKT like a cyclical lender, but it's really an integrated tech/servicing giant. The stock is seriously undervalued right now.

whomakesthetendies

CAC40 looking attractive. If only I had the 'liquidity' 😮‍💨

GTHero99

Only CAC40 I invest in is the 40cm CAC in mah pants

Fantastic-Aerie1843

CAC40 doesn’t include dividend reinvesting, you need to look at CAC GR to have an equivalent of Nasdaq, SP500 or whatever index

No-Public9273

Because it’s still a high competition market. They fight fiercely with Vivid and other resellers which drives up CAC and reduces profit. There’s limited differentiation across these platforms and it’s challenging to drive customer stickiness so their CAC doesn’t scale down as much as it would for typical large platforms with stickiness. Also, their avg take-rate is actually closer to 20-25% from what I recall. Ive looked into ticketing and I wouldnt invest in the resellers. Majority of tickets are already sold online so they arent benefitting from secular trends to digital that many other digital platforms do. They have benefited from the post-COVID entertainment spend boom and that could pull back significantly if there’s a downturn so there’s significant downside.

NukeGandhi

Customer acquisition cost is a more relevant metric for a product, not a marketplace. Amazon and eBay don’t talking about CAC the way companies like Netflix and Adobe do.

Aegeanm

Beyond user growth look at unit economics like LTV to CAC ratios and net revenue retention. Tools like [Seedscope.ai](http://Seedscope.ai) Pitchbook or even just a solid financial model help assess true value.

Fit_Swordfish558

I have the same line of thinking. Strong brand, sticky product, network effect, increasing paid-subs, AI-loser narrative overhyped, 65%+ of language learning market share, energy system will increase arpu, social media strong, little to no CAC, love the company and also the optionality with new verticals (I saw some people talking about coding and ESL potentially). Also strong financials and 30% FCF margin I believe and trading at multi-year lows for valuation multiples. I'm looking at paid subs, user growth in chess, and management's vision for fy2026 and beyond. I have some models from equity research coverage if you'd like to see...

MagicJuggler

I am still building out my portfolio, so hope to gradually diversify whenever possible. My first winning trade this year was buying shares of the Rheinmetall ADR (RNMBY) back in February, but then I started learning more about portfolio theory, option strategies, etc. I am interested in the DAX, CAC, and others in due time once I have collected sufficient capital to diversify.

Traditional_Panic966

I have seen good write ups on it recently I wish I had saved. Nothing obvious to me looking quickly. The CAC 40 is still up over 10% this year so not as much of a discount as I would be comfortable with.

TheRedditModsSuck

DAX Performance Index, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100, CAC 40, TSX 60, S&P 500 in the 1970s etc.

FastFwdFrank

Stole this from someone on X. Not exactly what you’re looking for but it is extremely thorough: “You are an equity research analyst. Produce a rigorous, source-backed investment memo on {Company} [{Ticker}] with a clear Buy, Hold, or Sell call. Rules for research and writing 1) Use only verifiable, recent sources. Prioritize official filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, regulatory documents, reputable industry data, and high quality media. Cite every non-obvious fact with a link and date. 2) Separate facts from interpretation. Tag each paragraph as Fact, Analysis, or Inference. 3) Use precise dates. Avoid vague time references. 4) Quantify claims. Show math for derived metrics. Use tables where helpful. 5) Note uncertainty. Call out missing data and state assumptions. Deliverables A) Executive summary (8 to 12 bullets): snapshot, thesis, rating, price targets and time frames, key drivers, key risks, near-term catalysts, and what would change the call. B) Full memo with sections 1 through 15 below. C) Appendix: source list with links and dates, data tables, and a simple operating model. 1) Thesis framing (purpose: define what must be true to create value) - State the core investment question in one sentence. - List 3 to 5 thesis pillars that would make the stock attractive. - List disconfirming evidence to test that could break the thesis. 2) Market structure and size (purpose: size the prize and trajectory) - Quantify TAM, SAM, SOM. Segment by product line, customer size, industry, and geography. - Identify growth drivers: regulation, replacement cycles, macro activity, technology adoption. - Estimate current penetration and runway. Compare against peer adoption curves. 3) Customer segments and jobs to be done (purpose: map who buys and why) - Describe mix by size band and industry. Identify buyer roles and budget owners. - Detail core workflows and pain points. Explain mission criticality. - Assess switching costs and vendor lock-in by segment. 4) Product and roadmap (purpose: evaluate product-market fit and durability) - Summarize core modules and adjacent products. Call out differentiators. - Compare depth vs breadth versus best point solutions. - Explain implementation time, integrations, configurability, and typical time to value. - Provide quality and reliability signals: uptime, incident history, mobile performance. - Roadmap credibility: stated milestones versus delivery track record. 5) Competitive landscape (purpose: position the company) - Identify direct and indirect competitors by segment and size. - Compare pricing, packaging, and feature gaps. Include switching friction and contract terms. - Summarize win or loss reasons from reviews, case studies, and disclosed data. 6) Go-to-market and distribution (purpose: test scalability of new-logo engine) - Break down demand sources: inbound, outbound, partner referrals, marketplaces. - Sales productivity: ramp, quota attainment, conversion rates where disclosed or inferred. - Role of channels and partnerships: integrations, OEMs, platforms. - Services and customer success model. Training and community as moat. 7) Retention and expansion (purpose: quantify durability of revenue) - Report gross and net dollar retention by cohort and segment if disclosed or estimable. - Explain logo churn drivers and timing. Provide a churn curve if possible. - Identify expansion vectors: seat growth, module attach, usage-based add-ons. - Discuss contract length, renewal mechanics, and price increase policies. - Include reference-call insights or credible review synthesis. 8) Monetization and embedded finance if applicable (purpose: understand usage economics) - Revenue streams and pricing model. For payments or fintech: share of customers active, GTV penetration, take rate by tender type, blended margin, cost stack, fraud exposure, and who holds credit risk. - Revenue recognition: gross vs net. Seasonality and cyclicality. - ARPU uplift from usage products. Payback on onboarding. 9) Unit economics and efficiency (purpose: test scalability with profitable growth) - CAC, payback period, magic number, LTV to CAC by segment if available or estimable. - Contribution margin by line: software vs usage vs services. - Cohort profitability and cash contribution over time. - Implementation and support cost over customer lifetime. 10) Financial profile (purpose: link operations to financial outcomes) - Revenue mix and growth by component. Gross margin by line. Operating leverage path. - Rule of 40 and efficiency trends. GAAP to cash flow bridge. - Leading indicators: billings, RPO, backlog. - SBC, dilution, and share count trajectory. - Liquidity, working capital needs, and path to FCF breakeven and target margin. 11) Moat and data advantage (purpose: assess defensibility) - Workflow depth and data lock-in. Network or ecosystem effects if present. - AI or analytics differentiation with measurable outcomes. - Integration footprint and practical switching costs. 12) Execution quality and organization (purpose: evaluate management and operating cadence) - Leadership track record and stability. Org design and succession. - Engineering velocity: release cadence, defect and incident rates where available. - Customer sentiment: CSAT, NPS, peer review sites, and community signals. 13) Risk inventory and mitigants (purpose: make downside explicit) - Macro, regulatory, competitive, operational, and concentration risks. - Payments, credit, or compliance risks if relevant. - Implementation complexity and time-to-value risks. - For each risk, propose leading indicators and mitigations. 14) Valuation framework (purpose: value with cross-checks) - Public comps table: growth, gross margin, operating margin, Rule of 40, EV to revenue, EV to gross profit. Normalize for any usage or payments reporting differences. - DCF with explicit drivers and sensitivity bands. - Cross-checks: cohort NPV math, S-curve adoption, unit economics to enterprise value sanity checks. 15) Scenarios, catalysts, and monitoring plan (purpose: set expectations and triggers) - 12 to 24 month bear, base, bull cases. Specify NRR, new logos, pricing or take rate, margins, SBC, and share count. Assign probabilities that sum to 100 percent. - Near-term catalysts: product launches, pricing changes, partnerships, market entries, M&A, regulatory outcomes. - Early warning indicators: churn spikes in small cohorts, backlog slippage, uptime incidents, pricing pushback. - What would change my mind: three positive and three negative triggers. Output format - Executive summary - Rating with price targets and time frames - Investment thesis and variant perception - Detailed sections 1 through 15 - Tables and charts embedded - Source list with links and dates - Appendix with model assumptions and calculations Quality bar - No generic claims. Back important statements with numbers and citations. - Label any speculation as Inference. - Be concise and structured. Prefer bullets and tables.

Real_Jism

company's investing in growth + acquisition, significant reduction in churn rate and a improved LTV/CAC ratio, overall positive

elsebe777

Nuvini Group (NASDAQ:NVNI), Latin America's leading B2B SaaS company acquirer, reported strong first half 2025 results with notable operational improvements. The company achieved 6.5% revenue growth to R$98.2 million, while operational free cash flow increased 16.3% to R$16.8 million. Key highlights include a significant reduction in churn to 2.4% from 14.3% year-over-year, improved LTV/CAC ratio to 8x from 6x, and recurring revenue reaching 92.2% of total revenue. However, the company reported an operating loss of R$31.9 million compared to a profit of R$14.2 million in 1H24. The company has completed one of its targeted four acquisitions for 2025 with Munddi Soluções and launched several AI initiatives, including NuviniAI Day, NuviniAI Prize, NuviniAI Lab, and NuviniAI Index, reporting a 40% increase in development team productivity through AI-driven platforms. Positive Operational free cash flow grew 16.3% to R$16.8 million Significant churn reduction to 2.4% from 14.3% year-over-year Recurring revenue increased to 92.2% of total revenue LTV/CAC ratio improved to 8x from 6x 40% productivity increase through AI-driven development platforms Net revenue grew 6.5% to R$98.2 million Gross margin improved to 63% from 61% Negative Operating loss of R$31.9 million versus R$14.2 million profit in 1H24 Adjusted EBITDA declined to R$21.1 million from R$26.5 million Only completed one of four targeted acquisitions for 2025 Low cash position of R$3.0 million as of June 30, 2025 Insights

Key-Boat-7519

Short version: they’re an operator-style holdco that buys sticky niche SaaS, keeps the teams, plugs them into shared playbooks, and funds targeted growth. What that looks like: centralize back office and analytics, standard KPIs (MRR/NDR/churn/CAC payback), tighten pricing and billing, add integrations that reduce churn, and provide GTM help (sales ops, partner channels, lightweight brand/website cleanup). Infra is rarely the bottleneck-cloud scales-so they invest where it moves the needle (reliability, security, data pipelines) rather than just piling on servers. On expansion, expect tuck-ins in the same vertical or adjacent geos, often kept as separate brands to avoid disruption, plus cross-sell across the portfolio. It’s a permanent-hold compounding model, not buy-optimize-flip. For context, I’ve used HubSpot for lead routing and Datadog for uptime, and Pulse for Reddit to spot customer pain points and market chatter when prioritizing roadmap or pricing tests. Bottom line: the value comes from hands-on operating playbooks and disciplined tuck-ins, not passive ownership.

wolf_of_rapestreet

CAC hehe

sadandconfused32

2nd scoop today: China tells tech giants to stop buying all of Nvidia’s AI chips - CAC summoned tech firms this week to ban RTX Pro 6000D - Several cos who earlier put in orders told suppliers to terminate - NV China rev will go to ~0 if no new update

sadandconfused32

$NVIDA NEWS FROM IMAKEBADINVESTMENTS 2nd scoop today: China tells tech giants to stop buying all of Nvidia’s AI chips - CAC summoned tech firms this week to ban RTX Pro 6000D - Several cos who earlier put in orders told suppliers to terminate - NV China rev will go to ~0 if no new update

Boston-Bets

Dude. Do you realize what BS your "cost of acquisitions" for RKT buying RDFN and COOP is? RDFN lowers their CAC tremendously, and gives them mongo cross selling opportunities. Buy with Redfin, and finance with RKT, get $6000 towards closing costs etc. COOP was soo undervalued, they are going \*add\* 40%+ to EPS for only 25% dilution in shares. It's literally free EPS for RKT holders. Right now RKT is valued at combined EPS, with no rate cut bump in volume. LDI first needs to get \*profitable\*, and then it can be compared Apples to Apples with RKT. Right now, LDI is trading on "hopes" of profitability in '26 and beyond.

Constant_Story8217

Cuz u can't spell CAC40 without CACA - that's the fair value of that stock exchange

FawningDeer37

Real question: Why do we mention the DAX on here a good bit but rarely if ever the CAC40?

ChornWork2

yes, companies pay to acquire new customers. sometimes pay advertisers, sometimes pay channel partners, sometimes pay sales teams and sometimes provide incentives to existing base. question is how does the CAC compare to the lifetime value, and what happens to each when you scale.

ganbaro

My 3x CAC40 is up today 😎

IAmOneGuessFromRich

Perhaps you remember that during COVID, supply chain issues were insane. I needed to buy a car during that insanity and paid out the ass premium prices because cars were sitting in warehouses, completely finished, except for the chips. The Ford Bronco is a great example. They had tens of thousands of Broncos ready to ship, but were waiting on chips to be manufactured. For as much as they already develop here, our infrastructure in chip manufacturing is not developed enough domestically to support demand. And as mentioned above, our dependence on foreign countries for chips creates a security risk. I always found it interesting in the Navy that our CAC card readers were manufactured in China. That seemed like a really odd security risk the Navy would take. Look I agree that it always seems like the big corporations get these massive handouts. In this case specifically, in order for them to receive the money, the chips act had laid out certain benchmarks they had to hit to get the money, unlike the PPP loans which were grossly abused or like many government subsidies to the fossil fuel industry or even a better example, the bank and auto bailouts. The purpose of the CHIPs act was to invest in an increase in chip manufacturing domestically to prevent issues like what we experienced during COVID. Or god forbid if Taiwan is ever taken over by China. It wasn’t just intel that was slated to receive funds. Micron, GFS, Texas Instruments, TSMC, and Samsung. Equipment suppliers like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA indirectly would be positively impacted by this growth. Fabless designers (NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple) weren’t direct recipients but they benefit from closer, more secure supply chains in the U.S.

OkMortgage580

Insuretechs with this digital first approach are writing the most competitive, thin margin business in the world. They do not have better underwriting than the legacy writers of wheels business and their CAC is extremely high. I don’t think it’s priced low enough with macro headwinds they will face soon.

Plaesmodia

S&P is tech-heavy and BTC is correlated with the US tech sector. If you think you are diversified with this portfolio, you are going into a wall. CAC40, FTSE100 and Stoxx600 would give you international exposure without doubling down on US tech and is a solid choice if you believe that the US is going to enter a recession.

Creative-Cranberry47

the thing is, each pet/renter policy is like a couple of hundreds of dollars, and each auto policy is thousands of dollars, so at a 330 CAC, ROOT actually has better CAC than LMND ROOT utilizes AI as well for underwriting. thats why they have superior pricing and loss ratios.

Agafina

Something is wrong with this data. It uses the S&P 500 as the benchmark index for the US (which is fair) but then doesn't use other benchmark indices for the other countries (like Dax for Germany, CAC40 for France or FTSE 100 for the UK). I can confidently say that the French stock market hasn't grown by 22% this year. In fact, it has actually underperformed the S&P500.

rasputin777

It's been a dead end for a quarter century. So has plenty of Europe. Look at CAC40. It's not brexit let's pretend. It's high rates of tax and regulations. No one wants to start a business there or hire there. I sure as hell wouldn't. The only reason anyone hires in Ireland is because you can pay people peanuts. Same in Canada.

bullbearnme

– **Analyst Optimism**: Targets of $5–$7.14 suggest massive upside, driven by NVNI’s role as a B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America, a growing market. Acquisitions like Munddi and AI initiatives (e.g., AIMÊ with 1400% ROI) signal growth potential. – **Short Squeeze Potential**: With a 40% borrow fee, zero shares available to borrow, and a moderate 72M float, NVNI could see sharp spikes if short sellers cover or retail buying surges (e.g., July 28’s 63.72% gain on 154M volume). X posts highlight squeeze buzz, with technical signals like bullish RSI divergence **Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

– **Analyst Optimism**: Targets of $5–$7.14 suggest massive upside, driven by NVNI’s role as a B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America, a growing market. Acquisitions like Munddi and AI initiatives (e.g., AIMÊ with 1400% ROI) signal growth potential. – **Short Squeeze Potential**: With a 40% borrow fee, zero shares available to borrow, and a moderate 72M float, NVNI could see sharp spikes if short sellers cover or retail buying surges (e.g., July 28’s 63.72% gain on 154M volume). X posts highlight squeeze buzz, with technical signals like bullish RSI divergence **Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

– **Analyst Optimism**: Targets of $5–$7.14 suggest massive upside, driven by NVNI’s role as a B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America, a growing market. Acquisitions like Munddi and AI initiatives (e.g., AIMÊ with 1400% ROI) signal growth potential. – **Short Squeeze Potential**: With a 40% borrow fee, zero shares available to borrow, and a moderate 72M float, NVNI could see sharp spikes if short sellers cover or retail buying surges (e.g., July 28’s 63.72% gain on 154M volume). X posts highlight squeeze buzz, with technical signals like bullish RSI divergence **Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

NVNI 0.6731+0.1811(+36.8089%) As of 12:08:30 PM EDT. Market Open. **Analyst Optimism**: Targets of $5–$7.14 suggest massive upside, driven by NVNI’s role as a B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America, a growing market. Acquisitions like Munddi and AI initiatives (e.g., AIMÊ with 1400% ROI) signal growth potential. * **Short Squeeze Potential**: With a 40% borrow fee, zero shares available to borrow, and a moderate 72M float, NVNI could see sharp spikes if short sellers cover or retail buying surges (e.g., July 28’s 63.72% gain on 154M volume). X posts highlight squeeze buzz, with technical signals like bullish RSI divergence and a $0.73 target. **Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

NVNI - UP 27.20% **Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention.**NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

**Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

**Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio.**Strong Financial** **Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

bullbearnme

**Strategic Acquisitions and Growth Plans**: NVNI completed the acquisition of Munddi, a São Paulo-based B2B SaaS platform, in May 2025, marking the first of four planned acquisitions for the year. This move is expected to enhance synergies with NVNI’s existing portfolio (e.g., Onclick, Leadlovers, Mercos) and strengthen its position as a leading B2B SaaS consolidator in Latin America. The company aims to close three more acquisitions by year-end, targeting high-growth SaaS businesses with gross margins above 65% and strong customer retention. **NuviniAI Initiative Success**: On July 17, 2025, NVNI hosted its inaugural NuviniAI Day at Oracle’s São Paulo facility, showcasing three finalist AI projects from its NuviniAI program launched in June 2025. These projects—AIMÊ by Effecti (1400% ROI for public tender analysis), Business Scout by Datahub (M&A opportunity identification), and LeadIA by Leadlovers (AI marketing assistant for 10,000+ accounts)—demonstrated an average ROI of 523% and a 4.2-month payback period. This initiative underscores NVNI’s focus on integrating AI to boost productivity and reduce costs across its portfolio. **Strong Financial Performance in FY2024**: NVNI reported record revenue of R$193.3 million (\~$34 million USD) for FY2024, a 14.4% increase from 2023, and achieved its first operating profit of R$16.5 million, a significant improvement from a R$189.2 million loss in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to R$57.4 million, with a gross margin of 63.4%, churn reduced to 2.9%, and an LTV/CAC ratio of 6x. The company also strengthened its cash position to R$18.0 million by year-end.

meNriveBabylon

Going all in on France's CAC 40 index. France has the biggest investment houses in Europe. They're probably making bank by knowing about these deals ahead of time.

That-Fun-7760

**[DD] $NVNI (Nuvini Group Ltd) — 2025 Comprehensive Deep Dive (Smallcap, SaaS Acquirer, Brazil, High Risk/Reward)** **TL;DR:** NVNI is a Brazil-focused “mini-Constellation” serial SaaS acquirer that’s just turned its first annual operating profit, but continues to post net losses and faces considerable dilution, compliance risk, and high volatility. Under-discussed, massively insider-controlled, thin on institutional backing, heavy on retail risk/reward. **1. What is NVNI?** - Brazilian holding group modeled after Constellation/VersaPay, focused on acquiring B2B niche-leading SaaS (software-as-a-service) companies across Latin America. - Led by CEO Pierre Schurmann (direct + indirect: ~15.5% economic, but voting supermajority). **2. Key Financials (2024–2025):** - 2024 Revenue: R$193.3M (+14.4% YoY) - 2024 Op. Profit: R$16.5M (first profitable year, vs. R$189M op. loss in 2023) - 2024 Net Loss: (R$78.2M) – improvement, but still negative net - Adj. EBITDA: R$57.4M (+30% YoY) - Churn: Down from 3.3% to 2.9% - LTV/CAC: 6x (was 4x in 2023) - Market Cap: $38.8M (Price ~$0.42) - Shares: 92.3M (post-June 2025 dilution) **3. Valuation & Risk Metrics:** - TTM P/S: ~1.1x - P/B: Negative (accum losses, equity deficit) - Piotroski F: 3 (weak) - Altman Z: −1.83 (distress) **4. Balance Sheet & Dilution:** - YE 2024 Working Cap: −R$348M - Equity Deficit: −R$120.5M - Heavy share issuance in 2025 (advisory fees/equity comp, M&A funding). - Auditor gives “going concern” warning. **5. Business Model/M&A:** - “SaaS acquirer play” – buys, integrates, scales B2B SaaS in LatAm. - Closed Munddi (retail/brand sourcing SaaS) in May 2025; pipeline full for rest of year. - Internal “NuviniAI” aimed at reducing G&A by 8% and launching more AI-driven platforms. **6. Insider & Institutional Ownership:** - CEO/insiders: Absolute voting control due to supervoting structure. - Latest: CEO got 1.47M shares in lieu of $630k comp; ~6% more dilution for advisory/services in June 2025. - Institutions: Sub-1% (Anson Funds noted; minimal activity). **7. Market & Sector:** - LatAm SaaS: Fastest-growing EM vertical, low penetration, high fragmentation. - NVNI: Early-mover, but execution risk high. **8. Analyst Ratings & Sentiment:** - Coverage: Sparse; one outlier target ($40, ignore), generally “Hold”/Neutral with caveats. - TipRanks SmartScore: 6/10 (Neutral to slightly positive, but not robust). - Hedge funds net reduced by 300k shares last Q; little institutional conviction. **9. Retail Trading, Sentiment & Community:** - Stocktwits: Retail swings w/ compliance and dilution headlines; sentiment flashes hot/bearish then cools. - Reddit: Not a meme stock, not trending, small posts only. - Price History: 52w range $0.14–$12 (yes, −95% from post-SPAC highs); up 158% last 3 months, but down 74% YoY. **10. Compliance & Structural Risks:** - NASDAQ compliance warning (April 2025). Needs to re-attain $1 min bid by Oct 13, 2025. Reverse split authorized if not. - Ongoing, heavy dilution a near-certainty. - “Going concern” warnings in multiple 2025 filings. **11. Summary Table** | Metric | Value | |---------------------|---------| | Price (7/25/2025) | $0.42 | | Market Cap | $38.8M | | 2024 Revenue | R$193M | | Op. Profit (2024) | R$16.5M | | Net Loss (2024) | (R$78M) | | Institutions | ~0.5% | | Insider Control | 15.5% econ., 314M votes | | Piotroski F | 3/9 | | Altman Z | −1.8 | | M&A Activity | High | | NASDAQ Compliance | At Risk | | Meme Stock? | No | **12. Final Thoughts** This is NOT for widows and orphans. NVNI is a high-leverage, “smallcap SaaS rollup” story with: - Some operational improvement and first real op. profit on the books - Huge retail risk, thin liquidity, and substantial dilution risk - Near-zero institutional support - Complete insider voting control Upside = execution of Constellation-style playbook in LatAm SaaS, with AI and acquisition flywheel; downside = further dilution, potential delisting, and high bankruptcy risk if the wheel breaks. Would only consider this with *speculative* capital and strict risk controls. DYOR. *Sources: SEC filings (2024-2025), company reports, Stocktwits/Reddit sentiment, TipRanks, MarketScreener, and relevant broker data as of July 2025.*

ConsultorShelby

VISA It's the NETFLIX 2.0 💣 HIDDEN CAC PAYBACK = red flag🚩🚩🚩 Buy on rumors and sell on news

chopsui101

I don't own them but I just glanced at their financials I wouldn't sell if I did. They have a profit margin of 48.51%. They have a high PE but they always had a high PE. I do love brokerage companies as investments as imo they are very sticky businesses that its rather difficult for a customer to switch at least there is a cost to switch. The only risk that I see is that their revenue 50% is from PFOF and trading fee if retail traders get smacked with a declining economy that might take a hit. Their CAC is $15 which is below the $26 industry average. Personally I like brokerage companies and I like financial companies that provide services so I'd hold.

SidonyD

this is different : German : DAX European : Stoxx You've CAC40 for France if you want.

blunt-e

Yeah they're still pre-revenue, they're in process on rolling out their satellites and locking in deals w/ MNOs. Other folks have commented this as well, but one thing I want to point out about ASTS is their CAC. Unlike many other businesses or even their (sort of) competition like Starlink, the way ASTS is structuring their service they will have to spend essentially ZERO dollars on customer aquisition. You, me, your grandmother in rural bulgaria...you know, the people that would be using their service? We're not signing up with ASTS. We're choosing that on our cell service plan. Basically the same time the dude at the ATT or Verizon kiosk is asking what data plan you want is going to ask if you want to pay an extra $5/$10 a year to have satellite internet connectivity with essentially no roaming or deadzones. Full bars in the mountains or gulleys. ASTS takes a cut of potentially every customer served by most every MNO. All they have to do is keep their waffles in the sky and cash checks. Plus, the defense contracts and rural first responder contracts they're stacking up are going to be extremely profitable as well.

Defiant_Carob_5846

Ok, S&P ✅ CAC ❌ But why not DAX? German companies have good growth potential, don’t they? (I sqw the charts of the last 5 years and they look pretty good) And what’s your take on Nasdaq, MSCI, FTSE ? (no need for drama, I have no intention of schooling anybody, I appreciate any help I could get on reddit, I’m not looking for drama)

thighmaster69

> looks at SPX ytd > looks at DAX ytd > looks at CAC ytd > looks at FTSE ytd What was that you were saying about actual gains?

Defiant_Carob_5846

who said I won’t buy ETFs? I have Nasdaq, S&P, DAX, MSCE, CAC 40 on my radar, but I also want to look at single stocks

GhostsinGlass

On futes that are open after tariff delay announcement. Futes Green: * DAX * CAC * FTSE * Euro Stoxx * ASX * MSCI Futes Fuk: * US * Nikkei The money is leaving Mango, what are you doing you big orange oompa loompa.

GhostsinGlass

DAX, CAC, FTSE, NIKKEI, ASX are all green. US futes are blood red, DXY getting slammed again. Mango you absolute fucking moron.