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VOO is flat YTD - I am up 9-10% - its not hard to use a little Gemini - ask the right questions, and invest in momentum stocks. Set stop limits once you're up. I'm in precious metals. Defense stocks. A little silver. A little gold. Sprinkle in some FCFS and some micron and you too would be up 9-10% YTD. Or just do VOO and chill. I don't care. I got stop limits protecting my gains. See you tomorrow afternoon when I sell RTX and Lockheed for 6-7% gains and lock that in. If they go up more? That's ok.
I was thinking $FCFS with the consumer debt default ath in the last decade. Im going to do a little bit more looking thought
Not listed here but I'm playing FCFS. Giant pawn shop operator with large exposure to silver and gold (collateral jewelery used for loans) and they have a fairly good margin (below melt price) on jewelry that is sold or defaulted via pawns. Stock has good momentum but doesn't appear to reflect the staunch rise in metal prices in the last 3 months. I suspect decent earnings tomorrow morning and some strong guidance for Q1. Report tomorrow AM before market open. Position Feb 20 175c. Meant to post a full DD but been busy (lazy)
> What other countries? Companies/stocks based in Australia, Canada, Mexico and a bit of Latin America (I should probably be looking further at Latin America.) There is a point - and I'm about there - where I will probably stop with further allocation to real assets unless things go further South. I think that there's a lot of validity to owning real assets in the years ahead but I don't want to go full "the dollar will collapse!"-style putting everything into that because I don't see that as likely (I do see the world as likely in the midst of potentially lasting negative change but I see it as negative, not apocalyptic), nor do I want to be entirely reliant upon one playbook. AI is still absolutely a theme of interest (not only in terms of technology, but ai-adjacent themes like power) but to me it's still very much about where companies are spending rather than about who is doing the spending. The where has changed and evolved a little over the last couple of years but that's still what's doing best. Meanwhile, if you look at MSFT (down 7% this morning), it's been outperformed over the last 5 years by a lot of boring things. Maybe it's just me but if something is a growth tech play and things like Walmart and the parent company of Chili's have outperformed it over the last 5 years, that's...not great. Maybe all this spending eventually results in a giant payoff for things like MSFT and we get a flip back to investing in the spenders instead of where they're spending, but 2-3 years of so-so returns is a lot of opportunity cost while other things (semis, even boring contractors like FIX - the latter has outperformed even NVDA over the last 5 years) have largely flown higher. "Would like to hear about others that don't fit into the baskets" There's less than there used to be. Couple of examples: I have done well with generic drug co Sandoz - boring name but has worked and generic GLP-1s start next year in some countries. I bought SATS last Fall shortly after the deal that involved SpaceX stock because I thought there would be demand for something that was heavily a SpaceX tracking stock. As there's been more discussion of a SpaceX IPO in the last month or two, it's taken off more. If we really go towards a scenario where the dollar continues lower and investing in resources becomes clearly a multi-year thing, I can imagine investing more in various resource country economies (airports and other infrastructure, perhaps staples, etc.) Some of that stuff has already done well in recent years but if resources turn into a multi-year theme I could see further tailwind. Sometimes with themes, I have a primary focus but then that primary focus becomes too much and it spills over into complentary subcategories. Really, when I talk about themes/baskets, it really is sort of an ETF of my own creation within a broader portfolio. It's not just owning metals and miners, it becomes owning something like Sprott or metals recycling companies and I owned FCFS (largest pawn shop owner) for a little while on the idea of how much prec metals are being transacted there. Something like data center power is never just one thing but a basket of complimentary/varied things. Lastly, I have no problem removing/reducing large chunks of my portfolio if a theme turns or new information/events happen that are negative in a lasting way or some other theme becomes more compelling. I am ab-so-lutely not always right by any means but I am not someone who sits with something that isn't working and goes, "the market just doesn't get it." Sometimes that's right sometimes that's wrong but for me everything is potentially some sort of learning experience. The market post covid imo moves a lot faster. I am relatively happy YTD because of positioning I started putting into place months ago, but at the same time I'm now sitting here thinking about what does 6 months from now look like and does that require positioning changes? "Thanks for your ideas! Your posts make a lot of sense to me." Thanks! I really appreciate that.
Gonna full port FCFS and WRLD lol
Buy a nice mix of Adobe and CMC and FCFS and MPWR (THANK ME IN DECEMBER)
I'm still buying fractional shares of OGI, MSOS, and recently ACB every day. I jump into OTC to buy individual MSOs when we get some substantial dips. That's not changing until sentiment brings these prices in line with the coming improvement in fundamentals. If we have a long bear market, it gives me time to accumulate slowly or change course. Outside of weedstocks I'm looking at: Pawn shops - FCFS, EZPW Tobacco leaf merchants - UVV Precious metals/rare earths - MP, REMX "Old economy" exposure - BRK.B, VPU
Whether successful or not who knows, but I think there will be some attempt to keep the market going into midterms. Maybe you get a dip earlier in the year and then the pump after that. After midterms and into 2027 wouldn't surprise me if you had the mild bear market. "Most of the AI announcements are already in place." I think there can always be more of this kind of thing that one can imagine, but the thing that I think threw a lot of people this week was the hints at wanting government backstops. That was somewhat walked back, but the moment the OpenAI CFO talked about wanting the government to step in, I think a lot of people who were questioning the sustainability of the theme felt that offered confirmation of their skepticism. The consumer is increasingly concerning but still kind of a mixed bag. There are things that are looking awful - restaurants, CPG. Elf has a terrible quarter and goes down 35% in a day, then goes down another 5%. Celsius got obliterated. Chipotle is down just shy of 50% for the year. The biggest pawn shop co (FCFS) is having record quarters. And yet, travel - which is generally the first thing to go when the consumer cools - seems to be doing okay. Expedia was up 17% yesterday. HLT/MAR aren't having a great year, but they're still green for the year.
I think there's some issues with Chipotle that are unique to Chipotle, but when you look across the restaurant group, it's not exactly encouraging for spending. I don't know if you get some majorly negative read this quarter from Uber, but if Uber said they're *starting* to see some people pulling back from spending on taxis for their tacos, wouldn't be surprising. "and that traffic is collapsing according to CMG's latest report." I don't think that's the case at all. Traffic from younger people may have been weakening yes, but it wasn't so much that CMG didn't still have positive (albeit slightly at +0.3%) comps. Somewhat related, higher priced grocery store (SFM) in the last 6 months looks like a healthcare company with a failed phase 3 trial and FCFS (largest pawn shop) had a record quarter the other day. So do I think Uber will crater? I don't think it's going to report some major negative quarter, but wouldn't surprise me if it's a decent/good quarter and had some forward-looking commentary that's less than fantastic.
> Everyone is talking about recession. IMO, you have a market of sector haves and have nots and an economy that is K-shaped. It's been a good earnings season so far overall imo, but there are sectors of the market that are doing mediocre/horrible. The consumer is concerning - most of consumer staples has had a terrible last few years and that seems to be continuing. Look at a basket of staples (see: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4mVDCFXgAASA9U?format=png&name=large, or https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4mVDCFXgAASA9U?format=png&name=large) and most of them have had a mediocre/terrible year or in a fair amount of cases, last 5 years. A lot of restaurant stocks have had a lousy year, some have had a lousy last 5. Target continues to be an example of people trading down. The largest pawn shop co (FCFS) had a record quarter the other day. The 6 mo chart of SFM looks like a biotech that had a failed trial. Not every consumer name has done badly of course, especially those catering to wealthy consumers - LVMH has rebounded off the summer lows, for example. However, look at some of those staples names in the links above and there's been some real obliteration. So much price was pushed by a lot of these companies in recent years and a lot of consumers have lessened their purchases or walked away entirely. Tech is doing well, a fair amount of industrials are doing well, healthcare seems to be doing okay and banks don't seem bad. Anyone benefitting from continued massive data center spending doing well. WDC gets a boost from STX earnings and one would think that when WDC has earnings a couple of days later, the STX-earnings boost would have priced good earnings in. Nope, WDC goes up another 10%. So, is everything broadly looking like it's starting to erode? No. Some companies are doing very well and some in particular might continue to if this level/pace of data center spend is maintained in the coming years. That said, the picture of the consumer is looking more concerning. Recession imminent? I don't think that's the case. Is everything doing well across the board? No and it becomes continuing to watch whether that stabilizes/improves or continues to erode. If the data center spending stopped tomorrow, that would be a *significant* impact, not only to tech but a fair amount of names in industrials, utilities and energy. If anything, the data center spending only seems to be increasing but if for some reason it stopped or even slowed, would be ugly.
Fair question, one that I’ve been thinking about as well. I believe that EZCORP offers significantly more upside than FirstCash to its lower valuation, stronger recent earnings growth, and higher free cash flow yield, all while operating a purer, lower-risk pawn model. Also with 18% short interest, a growing digital strategy, and over $500M in cash, EZPW is positioned for a potential re-rating or short squeeze, especially as it deploys capital through buybacks. In the last earnings call management seemed to be hinting at this as they look for smart capital deployments through acquisitions and share buy backs. It would be an easy ROIC at current price in the event of re-rating to 21$ . So my take all in all is that FCFS is more stable and dividend-focused while EZCORP presents the smarter asymmetric bet.
That’s fucked i had mine backlocked for way longer than you , how does this lottery system even work if it doesn’t prioritize at least somewhat FCFS
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** $FCFS, $EZPW **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Bullish on pawn shops due to inflation and increased demand for discounted goods. Charts look bullish. **Pawn Stars Approval Rating:** 10/10 (Would recommend) **Disclaimer:** This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing. This is based solely on the user's post.
Pawn shops. In 2011, I helped the new owner of a yacht sail the boat from San Diego to Puerto Vallarta. He owned a bunch of pawn shops in the Denver area and made a fortune as a result of the Great Recession. FCFS and EZPW are two publicly traded companies that own pawn shops. VICEX. ETF that invests in vices (alcohol, tobacco, firearms). Of course, do your own research.
FCFS calls. Pawn shops perform well in economic downturns.
payday lenders better FCFS WRLD ENVA
AMPH - First of all ew gross, pharma. Googling reminded me that they're the ones who lined themselves up for terrible press by doubling the price of an opiod OD drug while the opiod crisis was hot in the news. Not smart. EZPW - Just buy FCFS.
discount stores: DG, DLTR, BIG pawn stores: FCFS debt recovery company: ECPG, PRAA
holding shares of BOOT, ITW, AAPL, and FCFS through earnings tomorrow. probably selling AMD unless it makes a solid move upward. AAPL looks like crap to me. otherwise, wait and see.
FCFS will get you cash for your shit. sorry.
it all makes sense now. FCFS, THO, JPM all up. You're going to have to sell your shit to buy an RV which is financed by the bank.
$EZPW, $OPFI, $WRLD, and $FCFS are payday loan companies that do just that.
fundamentals: CXT FTDR TMUS BRC BKNG FCFS
fundamentals: DFIN ATGE FLT FFIV HRB GPN FCFS AVGO
Thank you; this answers my questions. I’m attempting to calculate future stock prices, but the negative FCFS results in a very low NPV, leading to negative stock price predictions. Therefore, NPV seems an ineffective metric for predicting future stock prices. Do you have any suggestions for alternative metrics, for this situation like P/E and P/S?
fundamentals: MELI META EXPE DFIN FTDR HRB FFIV GOOGL NYT NTAP FCFS V
I had a desk that I could have sold for $100. Didn’t want to deal with people wanting it for $20. I re listed it for free and got lots of “is it still available”. Told the first 10 people it’s FCFS no holds. Everyone wanted holds and some wanted it delivered. At the end no one showed up so I dumped it at goodwill
The retail trade down has gone from Walmart tier to Dollar General tier to pawn shops, FCFS hit a high this week
I'll look into FCFS. Not a horrible idea. I like boring companies that people not think about but are constantly used.
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Pawn Shop ETF's should prosper during the economic downturn necessary to curb inflation. $CSH, $FCFS, EZPW
Behind the dumpster is FCFS
Him & Hers Health (HIMS) - discrete Viagra ordering FirstCash (FCFS) - pawn shops
CSH, EZPW, FCFS not sure why they’re all in Texas
EZPW trades for 1/7 the price that FCFS trades for when it should only be around 1/3
It's complicated but there are rules around it that attempt to make it as fair as possible whilst giving the first person to offer/bid that price an advantage in selling/buying. The following PDF talks about how this works for the NYSE. If we are only talking about a single share then I assume it's FCFS because these rules really only apply when we are talking about larger blocks of shares. [https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse/Parity\_and\_Priority\_Fact\_Sheet.pdf](https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse/Parity_and_Priority_Fact_Sheet.pdf)