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TSLA Semi event tomorrow. They loaded a Semi ABOVE the legal limit for Diesel Semi’s and drove it 500 miles on battery alone. This is a game changer. Even Mercedes said just a few days ago it is “impossible” but they did it. Delivery to Pepsi and press event. Ramp up might be slow but Cybertruck and new Roadster both coming 2023. Inflation reduction act set to benefit Tesla up to 45 billion from Battery cell mfg and new Model 3 refresh in 2023. FSD had a wide (beta) release, now available to ALL TESLA DRIVERS. Videos on YouTube of owners driving 2+ hours through downtown LA traffic with ZERO INTERVENTION. People are sleeping on this due to Twitter but Tesla will have an amazing EOY. ALSO! China deliveries are showing huge demand remains, a record q4 is set for the books. Hot off a record q3. Love him or hate him Elon knows how to run a company.
Thanks for the info, and for the avoidance of doubt as a Tesla fan I'm 100% in favour of computer driving over human at some point. The types of configuration you describe are supported by tesla FSD to some degree (I suspect not quite as much). I would not be surprised if Tesla expands such options.
Every element of a tesla car - airbag, seat belt function, light iperation, pedal sensitivity, cooling system is controlled by software. Thats why it can do so many 'recalls' OTA. Software also drives autopilot and FSD. Messing with literally any of this is nuts. You simply object specifically to software locks and want to get something you didn't pay for.
This mf fleeced rubes into giving him 15K or whatever for FSD that hasn't work even though it was supposed to usher in the age of robotaxis half a decade ago. GTFO elon, you're a con man the likes of which we haven't seen since Donny...
>Right, they change the exterior and aesthetics to make it look like they've actually innovated to any meaningful extent. It is to entice people to buy a new model. Most don't care if the car has a new motor and now does 120 HP instead of 100. So looks are needed. ​ >Dumb phones is analogous to dumb (ICE) cars. As technology improves (including FSD) we're going to transition from a focus on hardware to a focus on software and the added value/ecosystem it provides. EVs are not the leaps and bounds ahead of ICE cars. There is no reason the Software can't work in an ICE car (and advanced cruise control is working very well in ICE cars). > I and many others care far less about aesthetics and far more safety and technology. Show me a new grille and I'll say meh. Show me safety data and I'll be ready to put my kids in it. Most are about price tho. > Just looking at their numbers — demand, vehicle (hardware) margins, FSD (software) being publicly available and understanding economies of scale tells me a story of increasing margins. If you look at the order numbers that are coming out of China and Europe, and the decline in used Tesla prices - then no it doesn't tell that story.
And then there's the fun part that comes next after the regulator is sued: Who gets sued next? The final assembler? The chip maker? The subcontractor that coded the AI? Their subcontractors? I don't see Musk taking any responsibility for products manufactured by a company he's CEO of, so the only one it benefits is the lawyers. FSD is a non starter on the basis of accident liability alone.
And in public beta is where it will remain. No authority is going to sign off on as a replacement for a human driver-in-command it until it is "nigh perfect". That's the standard for a safety regulator. Because it'll be them that gets sued by the family of whoever gets gets killed by an approved AI-in-command FSD car first.
Whatever you say bro, all those battery packs (home and industrial), solar systems, AI/FSD R&D, years and years worth of road data, all that stuff is just made up and doesn't exist, because user Robgeller319 says Tesla is just an EV company ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
>Facelifts etc. There is a reason ctraditional car makers do a facelift. It is to avoid the demand cliffs that were common in the 60s and 70s. > Right, they change the exterior and aesthetics to make it look like they've actually innovated to any meaningful extent. > >A phone is mostly its Software a car is not. Use cases and size demand lots of models. > Definitely agree to disagree on this one. Dumb phones is analogous to dumb (ICE cars). As technology improves (including FSD) we're going to transition from a focus on hardware to a focus on software and the added value/ecosystem it provides. > >They don't, their models look the same as they did on release day. I think that margin compression will arrive in the next 2-3 quarters. > Tesla consistently wins awards as the safest vehicle in it's class. I and many others care far less about aesthetics and far more safety and technology. Show me a new grille and I'll say meh. Show me safety data and I'll be ready to put my kids in it. If there's any margin compression over the next 2-3 quarters it's going to be the result of significant macro headwinds such as a depression. Just looking at their numbers — demand, vehicle (hardware) margins, FSD (software) being publicly available and understanding economies of scale tells me a story of *increasing* margins. I'll set a reminder to check back in a year.
FSD's in public beta right now, and already safer than human drivers Might be a while until it hits the unreasonable standard people set for it of being "nigh-perfect", but I'd already be willing to try it over a rando if it wasn't gated behind a $100k vehicle lmao
Wow dude lol. >You made that claim. Tesla can make a vehicle with 6 or 700 miles of range. That doesn't matter. Energy density does matter. No they can’t otherwise they would. >"Tesla is quickly being run down by its competitors." >No other EV company is even close in the US market. Tesla had a head start and they’re being caught. >"Which is struggling badly." >This is patently false. Energy growth in Q3 was 62% year on year, in an unusually difficult global environment. It’s not patently false. >"Owning gas stations doesn’t equal being worth more than the top 5 auto manufacturers combined. Especially when your charging isn’t the world wide standard." >That's a logical fallacy. Nobody said that was equal, only that it has value. Don’t say logical fallacy if you don’t know what the term means. You claimed it was a part of why Tesla should be worth the biggest 5 car companies combined. Are you admitting it’s not worth that much? >"It’s been stagnant for years now. His promised FSD has yet to appear and consistently has problems. And once again, they’re not the only competitor in that space." >"It's been stagnant." "FSD isn't complete." "They're not the only competitor." All logical fallacies. You keep using that phrase but clearly you don’t understand it at all. >"Considering other companies have equal range clearly this isn’t true." >Logical fallacy. Tesla can make cars with far more range at the same size and weight with their technology. They can’t. And they don’t. And that’s not a logical fallacy. Google the phrase lmfao >"Not worth more than the other major car companies combined." >Even if their PE dropped to that of other technology companies, take Apple for instance, it would still be worth more than other auto manufacturers. The market dictates the value of a stock, not people on Reddit. No shit lmfao, but Tesla is a car company. The market value was based on them becoming the dominate company in the area. Something that they’re failing to do. Worth more and worth more than all their competitors combined are very different. >"It’s nothing like the iPhone." >Feel however you want. Apple designed an innovative product, became the world leader in it, and hung onto that lead through diversification even though their products aren't innovating much anymore. And Tesla is losing that lead lol. iPhones work because they can get you in their eco system with your friends and it’s hard to leave. There’s no equivalent for Tesla. >"I think it’s overvalued and its blue ocean is rapidly turning red." >Okay Sorry to hurt you by stating that >"Twitter is currently failing and Elon spends every hour on it complaining about it. Tesla is down over 50% and its owner is spending his time antagonizing key customers on Twitter." >You'll survive. So will Twitter. Based on how emotional you got over this I doubt you will. And survive is different from thrive. Sure, they can be the same as Gab lol, that’s a failure though. >"SpaceX has nothing to do with any of this." >If they make cars with rocket boosters, SpaceX has something to do with it. SpaceX is a different company kid. It’s not dependent on advertisers. Go tweet at Elon some more, maybe he’ll acknowledge all the hours you spend online defending his every move
However\* "Having 20 more miles of range isn’t a deal breaker for people anymore than having 5 mpg less has been a deal breaker." You made that claim. Tesla can make a vehicle with 6 or 700 miles of range. That doesn't matter. Energy density does matter. "Tesla is quickly being run down by its competitors." No other EV company is even close in the US market. "Which is struggling badly." This is patently false. Energy growth in Q3 was 62% year on year, in an unusually difficult global environment. "Owning gas stations doesn’t equal being worth more than the top 5 auto manufacturers combined. Especially when your charging isn’t the world wide standard." That's a logical fallacy. Nobody said that was equal, only that it has value. "It’s been stagnant for years now. His promised FSD has yet to appear and consistently has problems. And once again, they’re not the only competitor in that space." "It's been stagnant." "FSD isn't complete." "They're not the only competitor." All logical fallacies. "Considering other companies have equal range clearly this isn’t true." Logical fallacy. Tesla can make cars with far more range at the same size and weight with their technology. "Not worth more than the other major car companies combined." Even if their PE dropped to that of other technology companies, take Apple for instance, it would still be worth more than other auto manufacturers. The market dictates the value of a stock, not people on Reddit. "It’s nothing like the iPhone." Feel however you want. Apple designed an innovative product, became the world leader in it, and hung onto that lead through diversification even though their products aren't innovating much anymore. "I think it’s overvalued and its blue ocean is rapidly turning red." Okay "Twitter is currently failing and Elon spends every hour on it complaining about it. Tesla is down over 50% and its owner is spending his time antagonizing key customers on Twitter." You'll survive. So will Twitter. "SpaceX has nothing to do with any of this." If they make cars with rocket boosters, SpaceX has something to do with it.
Lots of cars now have advanced lane keeping and laser cruise control with stop/start which are essentially what people use for commuting. The actual FSD on Tesla still is problematic in most residential and neighborhood driving, and likely will be for some time. (See the recent report that it repeatedly fails to identify child-sized mannequins in the street and will hit them.) I bought FSD when I got my Tesla in 2014. It was the best semi-autonomous option at the time, but their progress has slowed dramatically and the rest of the industry has caught up.
I mean, Musk himself has said he doesn't spend barely any time on Boring. In addition, Musk has constantly overpromised things like FSD for what, a decade now? Teslas also have tons of manufacturing issues and from reports, do not do well at safety tests. He's got a lot of momentum, but SpaceX is probably the only endeavor with staying power. Tesla isn't going to be able to reasonably compete with big automaker EVs pretty soon. Remember - the only reason Tesla is still around is that they could sell Carbon Credits. TL;DR - Musk is a good marketer and his only successful businesses exist because of government contracts/subsidies.
Feel how ever you want. When you look up the top rated EVs there are many non Tesla vehicles, several which are rated above Tesla. Having 20 more miles of range isn’t a deal breaker for people anymore than having 5 mpg less has been a deal breaker. Tesla is quickly being run down by its competitors. >They're making home energy systems Which is struggling badly. >EV charging infrastructure Owning gas stations doesn’t equal being worth more than the top 5 auto manufacturers combined. >they're making significant progress in full self driving It’s been stagnant for years now. His promised FSD has yet to appear and consistently has problems. And once again, they’re not the only competitor in that space. >their battery technology and manufacturing capabilities are cutting edge Considering other companies have equal range clearly this isn’t true. > Even if Tesla crashed, these innovations are each worth something to the market Not worth more than the other major car companies combined. >It's like buying an iPhone. It’s nothing like the iPhone. >You might not like the company selling it, but you're probably going to buy it anyway, and if you don't, someone else will. I think it’s overvalued and its blue ocean is rapidly turning red. >People may want with all their might for Tesla/SpaceX/Twitter to fail, but that is a far cry from reality. Twitter is currently failing and Elon spends every hour on it complaining about it. Tesla is down over 50% and its owner is spending his time antagonizing key customers on Twitter. SpaceX has nothing to do with any of this.
So you're saying that Tesla blatantly lies, and gets cease and desist letters about them lying, and that's a good thing to you. They get caught lying about their range, is that also a good thing to you? How about the FSD tests that show them ramming pedestrians, strollers, veering into semi trucks and guard rails? I'm sure that's bullish news to you
Imagine betting against the most innovative car company in the world, while their stock is at the 2nd lowest p/e it has ever been in its history, as it continues to grow 50% YOY with many exciting products in the lineup for 2023, and with FSD beta having just release to the wider public (available to all Tesla owners now), with the Semi launch date in a few days, and Cybertruck waiting in the wings. Additionally, a new gigafactory being approved in South Korea. From the ONLY car company with a vertically integrated stack from batteries to software, all being made on the recently developed gigapress, which gives Tesla margins of up to 30% (Hyundai Ioniq 5, in comparison, has margins of 5%. Typical of the car industry) Just imagine doing that. We have a word for that. Retarbed.
Probably in this order without dates... could all take a decade or more, bumpy road ahead... \- Tesla price will crash \- Powers that be will use EVERY dirty trick in the book to attack Elon, possibly up to and including physical violence. Certainly lots of legal nonsense. \- Twitter will be considered worthless as a company. \- Elon will meme hard about losing 44Billion \- The Current Thing crowd will rejoice as Apple will win ROUND ONE. \- Twitter hard to reach on non Tor browsers. \- Elon will make a smart phone. (it will be pre-ordered in the 100s of Millions. It will be 3 years late. It will be sold out for the first 9 months after shipping begins. \- Elon will withhold Starlink from companies which do not have free speech commitments. \- Elon will withhold FSD from companies which ho not have free speech commitments. \- Apple's self driving car will have no software to run. Tim Cook will retire. Someone (One of Steve's kids?) will take over. If Elon is still moving freely they will shake hands. \- Elon will take ROUND TWO. \- ROUND THREE is fought in orbit and with autonomous weapon systems. \- Elonites move to Mars and the Kuiper Belt.
50% yoy groth at a forward P/E of 33 (same as mcdonalds). For the most innovative comapny in the world? Too low. FSD wide release is out and looking amazing. 2 hours drive through downtown LA with no interventions. Inflation reduction act will give them billions for battery cell production. Margins 30% plus on each car. $200 subscription per month to FSD. Semi launch dec 1, cybertruck set to begin production 2023, preorders are insane, q3 record and q4 will break those records. Demand still insane.
>level 3 self-driving car for European roads You are probably being downvoted because the Mercedes self driving works on **one** highway in Germany, at 37mph. To say this is "leading in autonomy" is debatable. Sounds like you like to read headlines and jump to incorrect conclusions. FSD can operate on any road in America and it goes up to the speed limit.
>Traditional auto manufacturers just can't do this stuff with the same success. As a shareholder (100+ shares, down over $15k from the highest my shares were valued, but still net positive by about $15k), it unfortunately does look like other companies may catch up in certain aspects. Other manufacturers are putting A LOT of their capital into developing EVs and have just as much if not higher production capabilities than Tesla. I can't imagine Tesla would sell their battery technology to other companies, but it's only a matter of time before they catch up on that too. Plus, their FSD AI really is struggling it seems. Eventually people will give up on the promise they keep failing to deliver. They've been saying 'coming soon' for a long time now, and it's still a decent way from being called FSD. Also, companies like Rivian have followed other avenues that Tesla missed out on. Amazon placed an order for 100,000 delivery vans from them. They are a decent competitor, but on the other hand they are way behind on the self driving aspect, if they even did choose to go that route at all. The one thing Tesla has an advantage in over all others is FSD, but like I said above that's still a while out. It could be too little, too late. Honestly, at this point, I'd be happy if the board decided to remove Elon. His antics have really cast doubt on the future of Tesla's value as a stock.
Remote connectivity is the one service that makes sense as it's an on going upkeep to have signals reach the car from anywhere. Stuff like Mercedes doing the full power modes, or BMW with their heated seats is bullshit though, or Tesla having their FSD behind a paywall when all drivers provide input for the AI and every car already has the sensors and computing power built in.
Yeah it sounds cool as fuck, and I’m really excited about the safety and general possibilities with FSD, but realistically for my personal use case, especially since Tesla, in its usual fashion, has been price gouging the absolute ever loving fuck out of FSD options on their vehicles, I don’t think it’s that important. When I first was thinking about getting a Tesla, I think when the model threes first came out, the option was something like 3000 or $3500. Last time I checked it was up over $10,000 for the same thing
Yeah I agree. That’s why I said at least not yet in regards to the ford. Initially the Tesla FSD was basically just what you said. Software that kept you in the lines for the most part, but with this last update that just came out it will legit actually drive you to your destination and does it very well. It blew my mind the first time I tried it and I was giggling like a school girl because a) I couldn’t believe it was possible and b) it was just so damn cool to watch the car switch lanes and make turns at stop lights/signs etc all by itself. Not sure how often I’ll actually use it tho because I’m older and do enjoy the driving experience.
Yeah they’re ramping up service, the first few years of tesla was a fucking trainwreck for service too. Well it still is actually. Luckily they don’t light on fire as often now. FSD I’m 50/50 on. I like the idea in their. Not sure how much it really matters to me cuz I didn’t go to far very often anyway and I do enjoy driving a fun car. Every single major car manufacturer has some technology that keeps you in the lines on the highway and that’s all I really need tbh. You may be right, personally i think other car manufacturers are going to have their own FSD software. Google has software that we don’t know about because they don’t make cars, and I’m willing to bet Apple has similar data.
The problem tho with ford is the EVs are so new the dealer support doesn’t really matter when they don’t really know how to fix them yet. Now that will get better as time goes on but as of now a lot/most service centers don’t really know. Also, if FSD is a thing you’re interested in, and I know not everyone is, Tesla has that market cornered. I’m gonna bet in the future you’ll see other manufactures licensing out teslas FSD software. But again, I’m a Tesla fan. So much so I just bought my 16 year old a long range 3 for his first car.
The range is [really not](https://electrek.co/2021/02/10/tesla-range-estimates-put-into-question-independent-tests/) all that close in any third party tests. Especially when other companies actually match or exceed what they state. Again I’d rather give my money to a company that isn’t lying to me. When ford says the Mach e can go 240 miles, i can trust that it can go at least 240 miles. When Tesla says it can go “350” miles, i can’t trust that for shit cuz real world tests show closer to 290. I’m pumped for more autonomous driving capacities, but musk has been promising FSD for literally over 3 years now. And much bigger companies with much bigger pocketbooks haven’t been sitting on their asses. Musk over promises and under delivers on every single thing he touches.
The range is pretty close. If you go off the miles til empty in can vary depending on outside temp, accessories like heater etc you’re using. That being said if you use the calculations in the nav to your destination I find it to be tits on accurate. Also, do address your comment on the FSD. It used ti suck but with the new update that just came out last week it’s freaking amazing. I went home sick from the office the other day and my Tesla drove me all the way home flawlessly while I focused on trying not to blow chunks all over my interior 🤣
>I'm wondering why you think that not collecting LIDAR will help develop autonomous vision systems, Because it's not a good solution. Yes, it *is possible* to reach fully autonomous vehicles through lidar, but as I explained above, it is not cost-efficient and is extremely time-consuming. >Google Streetview and Apple Maps cars have been using LIDAR for a while, too. They need to map out signs, buildings, and, well, roadways. If this was good data, then why would Waymo need to geofence NYC? Why would they only be available in select cities? It's because it's not good data. >How does choosing to collect less data get someone like Tesla there faster This is not accurate, Tesla has [billions in FSD miles driven](https://lexfridman.com/tesla-autopilot-miles-and-vehicles/). Waymo, who I believe is the next biggest competitor only has millions.
Maybe go watch the Lex Friedman podcast with Andrej Karpathy. Geofenced areas are geofenced because they are making millimeter accurate maps of these areas which need to be maintained in order for the robo-taxis to function. No only is this labor/data intensive but it requires a whole suite of sensors that are very costly. How can a company scale robo-taxis that cost $300k each? There are only a couple million Lidar units produced each year and how many companies trying to use them? Can these companies swap out any lidar or other sensors for just any other versions of will that require a whole new round of data training? FSD is the leader and if you cannot see that, then I'm sorry you're blind. You can drop a FSD Tesla basically anywhere and it can drive by "looking around" at its surroundings (just like any person would) and figure out what to do, no mapping required. The fact that they just opened the beta for wide release is a hugely positive indicator that they are ready for a TON more data to train their system on. Tesla built their own Supercomputer for training this and its going to improve so much faster than anyone expects.
The problem is Tesla's still are decent ish cars. The asshole drivers of the world need a badge to flash, and it's TSLA or BMW at this point. Overpriced as hell, FSD is a literal scam, but the cars themselves are ok (except fit and finish) I don't think TSLA should go bankrupt I think Space Karen should though
> With FSD, a car can go anywhere new without the need for Waymo/Cruise/etc. to have built out the infrastructure first. I guess I'm asking whether that will ever actually need to happen. There aren't a lot of roads that aren't already being mapped by these mostly autonomous fleets. Google and Apple, for example, are already doing this for their GPS/navigation/mapping software for humans. And with big data and machine learning, I don't see why the company with the more robust data set about roads and what they look like over time wouldn't be at a huge advantage at making the jump to automatic self-updating on the autonomous car itself, compared to a company that is refusing to collect the data in the first place.
Every time Waymo/Cruise/etc. want to enter a new market, they need to geofence the entire area first. This is wildly expensive and time-consuming. They need to go send a new fleet of cars to geofence the entire area and [correct/update the machine learning software for new instances/edge cases which is currently done manually](https://blog.waymo.com/2019/09/building-maps-for-self-driving-car.html) by their mapping team. With FSD, a car can go anywhere new without the need for Waymo/Cruise/etc. to have built out the infrastructure first.
Nothing is competing with Teslas vertical integration and high margins. Not to mention, FSD gets closer to being complete with every update. I drive for a living. Everybody wants to and does drive distracted. Once there is a car that will legit take you point A to B without needing to pay attention, that's the car that will sell. All these other EVs aren't even equipped with the necessary hardware to license Teslas FSD once it's complete. As car prices are coming back down, Tesla still has room in the margin to lower prices and keep demand up. I wouldn't say Tesla is overpriced. Especially if you look forward to after this slump were in. When they stop raising rates or even reverse, you won't see a buying opportunity like this again. Meanwhile, all the other EVs are made at a loss and don't have any high margin software to go with them.
GM promised the Badger this year and it's never happening. They promised the EV1, gave up on it and crushed them all. >How's that full self driving going, eh? beta version 11 has released. 100,000 Teslas are using FSD. Meanwhile, [Ford takes $2.7 billion hit](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/tech/ford-self-driving-argo-shutdown/index.html) as it drops efforts to develop full self-driving cars.
Your joking right? GM and Ford both have excellent slates of EVs coming out. The hummer is a test bed and is a crazy small number of production cards. They are working the kinks out but overall? Gm actually delivered on a super truck while Elon keeps selling us in FSD cyber trucks that don’t exist.
FSD is false advertising. It is nowhere near Fully Self Driving. It requires constant driver input and monitoring. It will run red lights, miss turns and veer into traffic. It will knock over prams, and slam on the brakes because a pedestrian is walking by the side of the road. Telsa is currently facing class action lawsuits from customers who have been caught in these types of accidents because they believed Tesla's claims that "FSD" was fully autonomous.
Yeah just because you can't grasp the important distinction there doesn't mean it isn't significant. Tesla has not in any way followed ISO 26262, so any release they make for an L3+ system (What they've promised with FSD) would require them to fulfill liability in all circumstances. Companies that read the fucking room and played by the standardized rules don't have to worry about "All circumstances" so long as they follow best engineering practices. The important part here is that Mercedes did follow it, and can officially release an L3 system that is qualified and insurers will cover. FSD can't get underwriters cause it's a mess of ML code, unauditable, and didn't follow best engineering practices.
Just ignoring the historically moving schedule then? On announcement in 2015 FSD was going to be ready in 2018. Then in 2018 it was going to be ready in 2019. In 2019 and in 2020 it was going to be done “by the end of the year”. All those customers that paid for an FSD upgrade, drove it for years, and never even got to beta it before they sold it really must love musk rn. Copium must be flavored for you to enjoy it this much.
You’re ignoring the fact that FSD is nearing public release. It has already fully released beta to the public. That happened this week. It’s working very very well. This is a huge milestone for humanity. I will never give a shit that it came delayed.
> He has admitted he was wrong about that, and that it has been much more complicated than initially thought. They have had to rebuild it ground up. > Sometimes doing something never before achieved by humanity is difficult You clearly dont work on the industry if you believe this. Weird that such a "genius" belived that you can make a car drive itself without human intervention is something you can develop in a year, multiple times... > Getting a timeline wrong isn’t a “lie”. Lol. Agree. Getting A timeline wrong could be a mistake but doing it dozens of time in all the projects he worked on means that there is clear pattern going on... > And FSD right now look amazing. Look it up on YouTube FSD? There is not FSD yet, thats the whole point... and sure autopilot seems to work well on edited videos in LS where Tesla runs lidar mules but except that is closer to lane assist than to real FSD
6 weeks ago I saw a couple around $40k with FSD. Think now the floor is $45k to get that free add on. I’m curious if pricing changes 1/1/2023 with any of the rebates etc. I think new purchases now have to be delivered by years end. Have hard time thinking they’ll raise prices to capture the EV credit with rates as high as they are.
Yeah, prices still seem high (especially considering they aren't including FSD on a lot of these). For CPO cars Tesla usually lists them and then decreases the price periodically until it sells. Hard to tell if they just happened to get a bunch of off-lease cars in big batch, or if they're actually selling slower. Also, supply of off-lease cars *should* be going up, since Model 3 production ramped quite a bit around 3 years ago. I feel like Tesla's pricing strategy on used cars varies rather erratically (perhaps they're intentionally experimenting). Sometimes they've put FSD on all of them (or presumably all of them with HW3); now quite a few really cheap ones have basic AP only.
TSLA is not OVER valued! If anything it is UNDER valued! 4 M production run rate by end of 2023. 4 M at average selling price of let’s say ~ 60k is 240 B revenue a year. At about 35% margin it’s 84 B a year to the bottom line. Don’t forget that FSD is coming online start of 2023 as beta is becoming public. Whoever chooses FSD it’s 15 k to the top line and majority of that goes to the bottom line. Let’s say half of Tesla owners uses FSD by 2024 that would be 2 M x 15 k (eventually FSD will be about 100% margin due to scale of economics) so that’s another 30 B to the bottom line. So by 2024 we can expect over 100 B to the bottom line! That’s 25 B a quarter! Definitely under valued at today ~ 550ish market cap! You could of make an argument it was over valued at 1.2 T as it would take a year for business to fit that valuation but at 550 B valuation? Comeeee on man Now Tesla is also pedal to the metal with humanoid robots. We don’t know the business potential of this just yet but after 2025 we can add it to our earnings forecast. And this whole time I still left out Tesla Energy, solar, and insurance! Tesla has all the tools in spot to keep growing at 50% + year over year until 2030!!
FSD, SEMI, cyber Truck, DoJo, Mega Pack. Profit per vehicle 6X Toyota, vehicle build time 1/3 of VW. 50% growth annually. 4680 production, giga casting. Fastest growth of any major manufacturing plants in history. This is like getting to invest in ford, Amazon, google, Apple in their first 10 years of operation. There were people who invested and there were people who wished they had!
Weird I remember seeing full plans and predictions from major manufacturers that pinned 2023 as the first S-curve inflection point for last fifteen years now and things are... Exactly on schedule. And if SBF is any indication, you can be rich, powerful, and an idiot. So you're also incorrect there. Tesla ran on subsidies and basically can only survive is FSD pans out, which it won't because Elon decided to throw good engineering practices out the window and ignore conventional logic because he thinks he's smarter than everyone. He's not, it's all bullshit, Tesla has already lost. Doesn't mean the stock price won't be high for a while, but reality will set in eventually.
If you want to throw that argument on the table it’ll fall on very, very deaf ears considering since TSLA’s valuation has never made “sense” in traditional terms since it’s inception. The multiple represents the growth that’s most likely going to continue taking place since they still don’t have any legitimate competitors. I don’t even like the way Tesla’s look, they all look like a Prius and a Minivan had a bunch of kids out of wedlock… but a Model S will be my next car because when I’m working 5 days a week I fucking hate driving. And for the FSD… yea I’d still buy a minivan to have a vehicle that’ll make my life a million times more enjoyable and efficient The other auto mfgs can continue jerking each other off while TSLA digs their graves… FSD is the future, and they’re the only ones who did it
Because is critical software that needs to be maintained even after the sell. Bullshit like warm seats or speed limits I agree you shouldn’t but FSD will probably need to be paid extra to keep incentives for updates to stay at updated on the latest industry standards. You are like buying a driver.