FSD

WhatTheHeckCPP

What I sincerely think: 1. No. 2. Possible (if FSD hits)

WhatTheHeckCPP

No FSD or Optimus bot, but Tesla is the only one who does EVs profitably in the US, that and TSLA’s energy business is starting to grow rapidly now.

bkbikeberd

Here goes someone else trying to explain $TSLA stock price using math and logic. All you need to know is the keywords words "AI" "Robotaxi" "FSD". Musk is the best hypeman since Diddy (no diddy!). Musk can sell Ice to an Inuit and talk the patines off of his execs (ask Shivon Zilis). Elon musk has plans to repopulate all of japan by himself. Don't use no motherfreaking math to figure out the value of Tesla.

yung_tini

TSLA has businesses and revenue outside of solely producing and selling vehicles. They should not be compared with GM or any other company that solely manufactures and sell vehicles. Their energy storage business did $3B in revenue this past quarter for 100% yoy rev growth. You are comparing apples to oranges. They also have other “call options” in FSD, humanoid robot, dojo etc that if they hit on any of these become mega businesses. Not sure why people still complain or misunderstand why they trade at a premium.

NadenOfficial

Search up any video of FSD 12.5 that got out yesterday, it's basically solved at this point. Those that have followed closely knows.

BidensBottomBitch

It's FSD. Autopilot is Tesla's cruise control which is best in class unless you compare it to the ppl who cheat the system by scanning the entire highway. Not your fault that you don't know that. Teslas marketing is purposely misleading. Most people talk about tech/cars have no idea what they're talking about. Everyone Tesla owner I know uses and loves autopilot. The responsible ones like myself would never use FSD in any condition because it does exactly what you said.

Cheesy_Discharge

"The value of Tesla overwhelmingly is autonomy," Musk said, "These other things are in the noise relative to autonomy." Maybe Elon shouldn't have nixed radar and lidar over the objections of his engineers. Tesla's FSD may be a dead end. It is certainly falling behind the competition.

MyAccount2024

I owned a Tesla from 2013 until this year. I bought an ICE car which I like well enough. But watching the videos of FSD 12.5 it is mind blowing how close they are to cracking this. Even at this current version my next car will definitely be a Tesla. No one is going to buy a non FSD car every again ... and this is going to happen very soon.

Th3Zed

Which is exactly why I said “theoretically”, that word you conveniently removed. That said, if there is empirical evidence that FSD is substantially safer than an average human driver and is thoroughly vetted by trusted authorities, local governments not allowing FSD would be irresponsible at best and blatantly endangering their constituents at worst

r2002

> Tesla could “turn on” 5 million robotaxis in a single day once approved for level 5 FSD This is assuming individual local governments doesn't have separate rules for autonomous driving.

Evening_Adorable

No i do and i think no company will achieve it period. My point is people act like FSD needs to be perfect level 5 and do everything for you when really its not going to happen. Too many variables. It needs to be marketed as just a tool to help you similar to cruise control, but on steroids. The Barry Bonds of cruise control if you will.

Evening_Adorable

Its all use cases. You still cant use cruise control in adverse weather conditions and its been around my entire life. You wont be using self driving in adverse conditions ever. Youll just drive the car. But long boring drives on straight highways with good weather conditions? Yup put it in FSD and relax.

brucebrowde

Ooohhh! > [–]sonobono11 1 point 4 hours ago datetime=2024-07-25T10:57:11+00:00 > > What do you think this tech will look like in another 3 months? Then 6 months? How about multiple years? Extrapolate the progress into the future. FSD will be solved and unsupervised eventually. My guess is under 6 months. Lovely, prediction at last! OK then - as I said elsewhere, I predict Tesla won't have anything close to the real FSD or robotaxies in 5 years. Luckily, /r/stocks allows comments past 6 months. So let's do 1 year for now to give you 2x the benefit of a doubt :) !remindMe 1 year

THICC_DICC_PRICC

I have checked them out, I like waymo actually. They operate in a nearby neighborhood and I love seeing them drive around though it’s an uncommon sight. They seems to be struggling with scale as they need to pre scan the streets and have heavy operational burdens. I just want to see that solved, by somebody, Tesla, waymo, doesn’t matter. FSD is not vaporware. It has literally taken me to work every day for a month. Why are you so hellbent on insisting FSD is vaporware? Because you hate musk?

forjeeves

Because stock prices are priced to Future earnings and just like the other hyped that existed before it that's what makes it go up, so all the weird stuff before like 5g, VR, FSD, things

minipanter

It's hard to deny Tesla's progress. I have been trying out fsd every once in a while over the last 2 years. It was pretty bad when I initially used it. Got another free trial last week and I have used it to drive most places with almost 0 take overs (I would take over when pedestrians are present because I don't feel like testing that scenario out). I went from skeptic to believer in the sense that Tesla will be able to accomplish it. One of the roads near me started repair work, and FSD navigated it well before and after the construction started.

NegativeEBITD

He can’t add LIDAR. His only advantage is the years of FSD camera data, if he tries to leave the camera ecosystem he’s built and go LIDAR he will be years behind on data with Waymo, Hyundai, etc leapfrogging him. He doesn’t have a choice.

StayPositive001

At the end of the day it's a car with a touchscreen. I installed a full fledged android tablet in my old 2000 civic. I consider myself a tech geek, It was awesome for like a week and then the novelty wore off quick. I bought a V8 RWD manual and I still get excited to drive it everyday, that's because the car itself is different and engaging. I've driven Tesla's and the initial novelty really doesn't last. It doesn't need to, but Tesla has put all it's effort into FSD. The cars are getting stale and are tested like disposable tech items despite the high costs. What's worst is by Elons own words the company is worth nothing and you should sell if you don't believe FSD will work soon. Unfortunately I'm of the strong belief radar is necessary to provide high fidelity data for self driving modeling so my bet has always been on Waymo

Odd-Bike166

I was the ultimate Tesla bull 2019-2021, then sold all of my stock and now I have a small short position. Tesla is not about selling the product, it's about selling the shares. And Musk has gotten incredibly good at storytelling a vision that people want to believe in, then showing a demo and promising (for 8 years with FSD) that the demo is one step away from the real thing. This was multiplied by 100x when they were the first ones to really make a proper mass-market BEV. The story then became how all the other legacy auto can't make EVs profitable, when in fact they just prefer selling as few of them as possible and selling ICE and PHEVs instead. The story about how hard it is to mass-manufacture BEVs has finally been popped by all the Chinese companies that essentially ate Tesla's lunch and are out-competing it in a price war. So people have took that to mean that, because Elon's company was able to make happen something which looks hard (mass-manufacture cool BEVs) they'll be able to accomplish anything. Including things that are truly hard (maybe impossible?) and where there's true competition - autonomous driving. We are at the point where Musk needs to either deliver on some outlandish project or see the vision he propped up be taken down.

rupert1920

>Other companies are just chasing quarterly results - and by necessity are sacrificing long term goals to achieve short term micro-successes. I mean they do the same things to boost quarterly earnings... End of quarter rushes/incentives, strategically realizing regulatory credits or FSD revenue, etc.

sonobono11

What do you think this tech will look like in another 3 months? Then 6 months? How about multiple years? Extrapolate the progress into the future. FSD will be solved and unsupervised eventually. My guess is under 6 months.

YouMissedNVDA

Tesla has over 1.3 Billion FSD miles ( [source](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-users-pass-1-3-billion-cumulative-miles/) ) so not sure how you came up with "all three are way ahead of tesla in actual deployment", lol.

iqisoverrated

>So it boils down to 'Will Tesla nail FSD?' AND  'Can they beat everyone else to it?'. To a degree it also depends on how well they leverage their position in the energy storage market for future growth. Not just in terms of building hoime and grid storage installations and but also as a VPP provider. If you can make a tiny fraction off of every kWh that you supply to the grid simply because it's running on your software that adds up quickly.

Hairy_Base9729

Cruise is not scalable. It is geo locked, costs a fortune with all the sensors, has to follow specific routes, cannot go over a certain speed limit and is restricted certain weather conditions. All of these things Tesla has more of less solved. With the flick of a switch vision base fsd (which is miles ahead of cruise) can enable autonomous driving for every Tesla anywhere in the world. That's where the value lies. Tesla has more data to train their AI than anyone else. No one even comes close. It's just a matter of time (1-3 years if I had to guess before FSD is completely unassisted given how fast its progressing) just my 2cents

According_Scarcity55

1 their fundamentals are weak for a company with 60 P/E ratio. They maybe better the legacy auto but that bar is pretty low. 2 they stop growing and anticipate flat sales in the foreseeable future. 3 stop using interest rate as excuse. Tesla offer ultra low interest loan this quarter yet the sales are still down. And also average income of US rise 0.8 % while Tesla average selling price decrease yoy, which means it more affordable. 4 all of them are pipe dreams just like “FSD in two weeks” from 7 years ago.

Ok_Run_101

If your knowledge of BD is that it is preprogrammed, let's not even have this conversation. I'm not trying to be hurtful; Researching about BD has not been your priority in your life and that's perfectly fine. As for Cruise, yes they have been geo fenced, but they have done 1 million miles ACTUALLY being driverless and are being put to ACTUAL commercial use compared to Tesla's FSD which hasn't even been able to get passed human-supervised autonomous driving. (This is the extent of my knowledge so please correct me if I'm wrong; but in that case appreciate it if you can cite non-Elon sources) And Tesla's FSD had enough scandals too so let's just cancel them out.

Ehralur

I can totally understand if people don't want to touch Tesla because they don't believe in their autonomous software and bots, and if you don't believe in those there's little reason to own the stock. The car business will probably justify its current valuation over the next decade, but that's a poor investment. The ROI is in the FSD and Bot. The problem though is that a lot of people who don't believe in those, don't believe in them for the wrong reasons and you appear to be one of them: > Boston Dynamics are miles ahead in terms of robotics that replace labor Tesla is NOT competing with Boston Dynamics, which make pre-programmed robots not autonomous robots. To say BD is "ahead" is extremely silly. It's like saying Usain Bolt is miles ahead of Messi. Sure, he might run faster, but Messi is not trying to just run in a straight line. > Same goes for GM who owns autonomous driving company Cruise, which is already ahead of Tesla in robo taxis. I read this a bit too late. You're clearly not actually trying to understand anything but acting in bad faith. Cruise is not only working on geofenced autonomous cars, not fully autonomous cars, but they've also all but shut down after the recent scandal. To say they're "ahead" of Tesla just shows you're not being genuine.

PM_ME_UR_QUINES

> If you believe Tesla can achieve FSD and Robotaxis AND they will be the first, then the stock is way undervalued. It will be trillions of dollar business. They aren't first, and the entire global taxi market is like $250B.

Th3Zed

The real answer: optionality. Tesla has the moat, money, and talent to pursue some of the largest market opportunities of any publicly traded company. The car business: zero debt, vertically integrated and positioned well in a growing market. You could argue this business is worth 150 billion of MC Super charger network: gas station of the future if you believe in sustainable energy, targeting 15% ebitda margin, conceivably another 30 billion dollar business by 2030 Energy: a clear leader in solar tech and battery storage. If you believe clean energy is the future, Tesla will disproportionately benefit. 100-200 billion in MC Software: FSD in its current state should continue to grow high margin revenue for Tesla as they sell more vehicles. Same playbook as Apple services. 50 billion in MC Everything above is current state, roughly 450B in MC. But investing is about the future and this is where things can get really interesting for Tesla. Robotaxi: a 1 trillion dollar business for Tesla if they pull it off. Theoretically, Tesla could “turn on” 5 million robotaxis in a single day once approved for level 5 FSD Dojo: supercomputer with unmatched dataset from billions of miles of driving. Companies will line up to gain access for simulations. Conservatively, 500 billion dollar business Optimus: Teslas spacial awareness capabilities loaded onto a humanoid robot. Produced at scale, labor is no longer a limiting factor of productivity. The most significant innovation in human history. 7-8 trillion dollar business. Investing in Tesla today predicates a belief that they will succeed in one or multiple big bets, the nearest and most significant being robotaxi, level 5 FSD. It is easy to see how Tesla could grow to 2-3T in MC if they succeed. Say what you will about Elon, it is undeniable he knows how to defy the odds in business and create multiple hundred billion dollar companies and run them simultaneously. I would not bet against him.

parsley_lover

I think Musk was very clear on what's ahead: If you believe Tesla can achieve FSD and Robotaxis AND they will be the first, then the stock is way undervalued. It will be trillions of dollar business. I was a firm believer in FSD from 2016 to 2019. Not anymore. I still think research in the area is valuable but more like driver assistance instead of no driver at all.  If you believe Tesla will be just another car company then it is stupidly overvalued. Car companies have thin margins, and competing with Toyota long-term? Doubtful. So it boils down to 'Will Tesla nail FSD?' AND  'Can they beat everyone else to it?'. Elon has done a lot of "fake it till you make it" and I personally cannot trust his promises. He also doesn't seem to respect the shareholders so yeah.

Kruxx85

I find it truly phenomenal that humans have been ok with Tesla charging people to beta test FSD on public roads. No training, no oversight, just go for it. The way Waymo has handled their progress in this space seems normal to me. What Tesla has done seems obscene. My 2c

Medical_FriedChicken

Right, people drive into trains also but even if his statement was true it doesn’t matter. FSD deaths are preventable unlike driving human mistakes and that makes any risk in their FSD unacceptable.

sonobono11

lol. Look up FSD 12.5 on YouTube

sonobono11

Look up FSD 12.5

hofmann419

The problem with Tesla is that its market cap is insane for being just a car company. Comparable automakers are somewhere in the $50-150B range. So yes, in terms of fundamentals, it's a bad investment. That is probably why Elon came up with the robot. Promising FSD "next year" just wasn't cutting it anymore, so he came up with a new fantastical product that may or may not come to market in the next decades.

hofmann419

Some experts say that FSD is basically impossible without LiDAR. Vision sometimes fails to proerly recognize the exact placement of objects and other cars, especially at night or in the rain. In those cases, you need LiDAR to give you accurate depth information. And what's funny is that they have not only ditched LiDAR, but also proximity sensors - which have been standard on pretty much every car for like two decades. Coincidentally, accidents shot up significantly after doing that. He might say that all of those sensors are useless and only overcomplicate stuff. But the reality is that he just wanted to cut costs. Same thing with getting rid of physical buttons and steering wheel stalks. Tesla's really are an exercise in providing only the absolute bare minimum.

CraftyHalfling

If you consider driving into a train safer than a human, sure. There are no real statistics from Tesla as they don’t share anything that doesn’t put them in a good light. If FSD was allowed, it would rapidly build up a body count.

Medical_FriedChicken

I have to ask. If this was a true statement then why are they only at a tier 2 FSD? How do they plan to make that huge jump to tier 5 within a year? Mercedes is the only company with tier 4 and that was recent and on a limited high end model with lidar. I don’t want to be rude but your anecdotal experience means nothing. And a tier 5 car has to be perfect 99.99% or more of the time. It’s an unrealistic goal to make the jump he is claiming.

ToothGold1666

That whole rally was based on a bunch of obvious bullshit vaporware about robotaxi FSD and humanoid robots. Tesla is fucked their core customers are never coming back until Elon is gone and Elons ability to bullshit is minimum 75% of the stocks value.

brucebrowde

FSD sucks. It's so far from being to able to drive itself on a scale they are talking about it's not even funny. I'd like to be proven wrong, but I'm not even sure they will have a robotaxi, let alone soon.

carsonthecarsinogen

Toyota entering the EV market in a meaningful way is starting to sound more like a broken record than Elon yelling FSD.. Regardless, the world won’t allow China to dominate they’ve already proven that with tariffs. They can’t afford it, and you don’t want China to dominate either. It would not be a fun world. Tesla will most likely continue to be a top player among EVs for a while, theyll probably become a top player within energy storage as well although you could argue they already are. Time will tell. But if you zoom out the trend is definitely favouring Tesla.

AntiqueWay7550

Saying Robotaxi has no competitors is like saying Apple has no competitors because no other company is selling Phones with iOS. Blaming human error for the entirety accidents is just a non-logical claim as FSD is promoted as full self driving but many accidents have occurred but liability is placed on the customer not the software.

BrendanAriki

No, but Blackberrys sales were going in what direction after the iphone's release? Tesla's sales are going in what direction? Which company is more structurally unstable Tesla or Ford? Which company is massively overvalued due to nothing more than the CEO's continuous lies? Tesla isn't a car company remember. It's and Ai and Autonomous Robot company that produces no Ai or Autonomous Robots.... Tesla = Structurally unstable with dodgy accounting practices, childish and toxic CEO who can't keep his mouth shut, old product lines in an increasingly saturated market, other product lines that are massively delayed and not what was promised, mythical product lines in industries it is way behind in, a valuation based on continuous lies, FSD coast to coast in 2017 remember. Yeah, sounds like a great investment in a solid company....

Krish_1234

Fuck him and his cars. Friend’s car got totaled with uncontrolled acceleration. Tesla logs claim they initiated FSD and 20 milliseconds later they hit acceleration to 100% in a their garage. They had no FSD subscription and yet they blame the user.

Cheesy_Discharge

I see Elon as slightly net negative for Tesla at this point. * Musk nixed radar and lidar sensors on Teslas, arguably dooming (and definitely delaying) Tesla's FSD efforts * Tesla Semi, Roadster, Cybertruck, and Optiumus robot are all looking like embarrassing failures * Tesla still makes 80% of its revenue from cars, yet their most popular models haven't been updated in years * Robotaxis won't happen until FSD is fixed, and that won't happen with visual-only autonomy, meanwhile competitors are carrying paying customers in test cities * Non-retail investors no longer believe Musk when he hypes things like Robotaxis and FSD, even the affordable EV is looking like vaporware now. Anyone who believes Optimus will be working in Tesla's factories next year has a closed head injury * Tesla's China market share looks set to be destroyed by cheaper, surprisingly high-quality Chinese EVs. They may even have an impact in US and Europe, despite steep tariffs. * Musk is taking political stances that alienate his target demographic in the US market * Elon's other companies are impressive in their own right, but they, along with incessant tweeting, demand too much of his time and attention

Need-Some-Help-Ppl

LOL Elon's vision has always been as good as FSD vision only 😂🤣😆 His best days are about a decade in the past. Right now, he has let go of anyone in the company that might have had a chance to save him... you are watching a slow motion train wreck happen in real time

Bic_wat_u_say

Waymo is currently destroying Tesla FSD . I expect the full beta launch with LYFT to be announced over the next couple years

Jarsyl-WTFtookmyname

And the new roadster will fly, and the telsas were all FSD years ago, and after he launches the first manned mars mission in 2024 it will only be a few short years to full colonization. Saying we can definitely send a manned mission to mars simply because spacex strapped more engines to a spaceship is just as absurd as the other claims. Right now it would take 6+ months to reach mars, if they could get there at all. The "90 days" some people claim is based on the assumption they can completely refuel the entire system after it leaves orbit, something they currently have no actionable plans for how they will accomplish. Based on best estimates, an actual manned mission to mars would result in an exposure to ionization radiation of around 0.88 Sieverts. You start getting Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) at around 1 Sievert (although it needs to be over a shorter time, not 6 months)...and despite how the name sounds ARS isn't the light/non serious symptoms. At 1 Sievert you also have a flat \~5% chance of dying from cancer.

bpm6666

Tesla is still priced as a tech company and not a car company. And tech companies need to tell the story of growth and high margins. And that's what the part time CEO of Tesla is trying to sell here. "FSD and Robotaxis just with software and cheap cameras around the corner. And when this happen we will even license this to other car companies, so we will have margins like a software company" But he needs to proof, that their technology is superior compared to rest with Lidar. And if he doesn't deliver that proof and also gets their technology approved by the regulators, then the Tesla stock is in trouble. Maybe he is "investing" in DJT to get that approval.

slagmatic

Waymo: takes full liability for FSD Tesla: rejects all liability for FSD That's all that matters to me. Let me know when they put their money where their mouth is.

Super-Base-

Version 12 of FSD is at 450 miles per critical disengagement. Like I said it’s not 2016.

Mvewtcc

i think for robotaxi to work you need rediculously high disengagement rate.  waymo is at like 17,000 miles per disengagement.  Tesla is like at 30 miles per disengagement.  if you have critical engagement at once per 100 miles, it means if you have 100 robotaxi out every 1 minutes one of your tesla robotaxi is crashing.  Elon says unsupervised FSD isnt ready now and he think it'll be ready sometime next year.  he's been saying that for the past 7 years.

Recyclenothrowaway9

Will TSLA bulls ever realize they don't actually own any piece of SpaceX, neuralink, Xitter or Starlink. Do they realize Robotaxi,FSD and that regarded robot are never coming?

pumpkin_seed_oil

And FSD is definitely coming next year

Josepth_Blowsepth

I have found that I dislike Elon more than 🥭. Never thought that would be possible but I would love to see a Cybertruck FSD into him.

Super-Base-

FSD only started using end to end AI with version 12 and it has improved significantly as a result. The guy you’re replying to is speaking his experience with FSD (versus I suspect your none) and you idiots are still dismissing it. You don’t need bulky LIDAR and version 12 of FSD live and in practice is a testament to that.

Super-Base-

Maybe take a ride in a Tesla with the latest version of FSD as well, so many of you seem to think this is still 2019.

jzammit159

Level 3 approval is level 3 approval, if Tesla could announce a level 3 approval capped at 40mph they would have simply to try and pump their stock. Taxis with far less problems than Tesla's FSD? think for a second FSD was on their level they wouldn't have launched already? There is a reason they can't get approved and/or haven't launched yet. They are a company that over promises and under delivers, if they were even close they would have launched in select areas as another beta. Tesla has been using owners to beta test the existing software since it came out. Some would say it's the gimmick. Do u think it's a fluke that Tesla skyrocketed and bounced between number 1 and 2 as involved in the most car accidents? Thanks for the fun. It's always entertaining to hear a Tesla cult member cope.

KrustyLemon

He also didn't want to add LIDAR due to it adding costs & looking 'clunky' If you can, take a ride in a WAYMO. They're #1 in FSD currently.

sonobono11

I use FSD everyday, Elon’s robotaxi claims will come true, and the profitability will be immense. This thread is letting their anti-Elon bias blind them from the technological-feat of FSD

Reasonable-Mine-2912

No they can’t. I doubt Waymo would ever be profitable. Claiming to be $180000 a piece which I am sure the CEO was being optimistic. The real cost has to be north of $200k. A taxi wear out in 5 years. With maintenance, fuel, insurance cost the annual cost of a Waymo is approaching $60k. If you add billions of development cost a Waymo is more likely cost $100k a year. There is just no chance Waymo can be profitable, let alone beat Uber or Lyft. I think FSD, after its mass testing in China, will definitely best Waymo. Just ask your self, will you put your hard earned money to invest in Waymo? “Waymo, valued at $175 billion by Morgan Stanley in 2018, saw its valuation slashed to $30 billion by early 2020. This decline raises questions about the challenges Waymo faces in the autonomous vehicle industry.” This round of funding has no valuation figure!!!! No auto company participated in this round of new funding. I don’t have figures. My bet is that the total investment by google is more than $30 billion. In another word it was a failed investment.

youzongliu

Mercedes level 3 is a gimmick. Needs perfect road conditions, only available on certain highways, only under 40 mils per hour, it's nowhere near Tesla's FSD. And most autonomous taxi's have loads of problems, including not even able to pick people up properly.

SocialSuicideSquad

Cars - Suck Truck - Sucks more Semi - Not even road legal outside of prototype allowances (Aka it can't actually be sold) FSD - uninsurable AI - It's as smart as Elon Robit - might manage menial pick and place tasks by 2030

THICC_DICC_PRICC

I’ve been carpooling to work with a friend’s Tesla with FSD daily for a month now it works fine and no interventions needed. The parts that need work are the beginning and end, that is getting out of a parking lot and parking the car. Once you’re on the road, it’s good at going from one curbside to another. This robotaxi thing will be interesting to see play out operationally speaking. There needs to be a crew to manually pull it out of weird situations or just people fucking with the car on purpose(like putting a traffic cone on the hood). They might do something like the bird scooters where there’s “juicers” who get paid to maintain the fleet, but in this case to help a car in need. Maybe they’ll have their own employees. We’ll see how it goes, but can’t lie, it’s very interesting living through these times. I’m seeing food delivery bots driving around sidewalks and they seem to work fine.

FastSky7459

Musk also said FSD EOY in 2018.

blandmath

And FSD is right around the corner. And so are the robots. And the semis. And the roadster.

CertainAssociate9772

You can tell your FSD where to go using Neurolink.

thememanss

Well, in that case I have an AI driven, FSD enabled, robot bridge to sell you.  Each one will cost $5,000, and I will sell a trillion every year.  

thememanss

Here's my problem with Robotaxis taking over Uber (well, among many), and essentially turning your Tesla into a ride sharing service: 1.  Regulations are going to be tight, and it's likely Tesla will be required to geofence. Eliminating their advantage. 2.  Insurance premiums through the god damn roof, if they allow it at all. I can't reasonably see any car insurance company offering any reasonable auto insurance for your car turning into a self driving car. 3.  FSD is still a long ways away from being good enough for this. Years away, at best.

pinghing

Yeah they're done for they only did 84.29B revenue and adding 5B more to waymo the real Tesla FSD

ChainBuzz

Because most people can feel that tech is extremely overvalued. AI isn't revolutionizing anything but pictures to trick boomers on Facebook, Teslas will never FSD, and one security company busted billions of dollars of profit for such a wide range of companies that it is disconcerting. Value stocks have been left in the dust but there is a better than zero chance of a flip, especially with lower interest rates potentially on the horizon. For real this time. Maybe.

FullCopy

Rickshaws don’t need FSD.

BS2626

FSD works (almost) in dry good weather conditions. How will it work in snowy conditions.

banditcleaner2

I tend to agree with this. In theory, they could still make robotaxi work if FSD worked flawlessly. They would have some experimenting to figure out the best pricing and insurance, but they could make it work where insurance was free. They need to put cameras out the wazoo inside the car tho.

Mavnas

> telepathic car control So he's backing out of FSD?

Reasonable-Mine-2912

I don’t think it’s a good investment. FSD is only cost $8000. Granted the FSD still needs improvement, so is Waymo. Waymo automatically driving package costs over $100k per vehicle based Waymo CEO’s comparison of Mercedes S class. Even if Waymo is successful the market is very small. Only super rich which hires chauffeur to drive would be able to afford Waymo packages. I think FSD’s price range is a good one. Most, if not all, can afford it.

DevinOlsen

Alright I watched your video and honestly it’s disappointing how ignorant you are when discussing self driving. This video just shows BMWs highway driver assist, which is a massive difference from teslas FSD. Also around the 20 minute mark it almost ran itself off the highway without any warning. They even admit how much better Tesla is during this part. Teslas FSD works on ANY road, not just highway. That’s a massive difference from what you linked me. Find me a driver assist that rivals teslas FSD, until then the reality is Tesla is without a doubt the best at consumer level self driving.

DevinOlsen

Well for what it’s worth I use FSD daily and probably have 10,000km driven with it. My main reason for arguing on the side of FSD is safety. I spend a lot of time driving and I see how terrible people are at driving. Distracted, speeding, etc. FSD is incredibly capable and I would argue that it’s safer than your average driver on the road. If you check the Tesla subreddit you’ll see a lot of people use FSD, and the technology changes rapidly. As for Waymo yeah there’s no denying that what they’ve done is impressive. I’d love to go for a ride in one someday, but in my opinion you’ll never see Waymo everywhere in North America.

robbko

I hear the scalability argument often but the fact is Waymo is out there on the roads with customers using it as a taxi. No Tesla owner I personally know uses FSD, and those who paid for it years ago are tired of waiting and regret their purchase.

DevinOlsen

I daily drive with FSD 12.4.3 and basically everything you said is incorrect. It has zero issues in the sun, no idea what you’re saying there. I use it at night all the time, again no issues. You’re the one getting more upset than needed, I am just trying to have a conversation. I can link you more videos of FSD performing drives with zero interventions, hell I will go record my own video for you right now showing how good FSD is.

DevinOlsen

12.5 is rolled out to hundreds/thousands of people and it works on literally any road in North America. I’ll watch your video a a few minutes once I am home, but I can tell you now that there’s almost no way a 2 year old video will have software better than FSD today.

SocialSuicideSquad

Cars suck, cyber truck sucks more, the semi is illegal vapor ware they can't fix because tractor weight is way over the legal limit, FSD will never exist because insurance underwriters, and the robots will be shitty at best

DevinOlsen

Yeah Waymo is more capable on their pre-mapped roads. But their solution isn’t scalable. Mapping the entire world and relying on that for navigation isn’t a real solution. It also isn’t perfect; Waymo still makes plenty of mistakes. But that is why I said teslas FSD is the best consumer self driving technology. No end user is gojng to buy a Waymo, but anyone can buy a Tesla and get FSD.

DevinOlsen

Let’s just get factual here. Show me another car that can do level 2 driving as good as teslas FSD currently can. Video links would be preferred - hard to refute video footage.

DevinOlsen

This sentence alone tells me you know nothing about the state of autonomous driving in vehicles. Teslas FSD is hands down the best consumer self driving technology that exists. It’s not even close.

CouncilmanRickPrime

Then using a compliment by John Nvidia to hype up FSD

DevinOlsen

The market is fascinated with Tesla failing, which I honestly don’t understand. They’re creating all sort of incredibly impressive future technologies - nobody else is doing that. There’s nothing close to FSD being offered by anyone else, so why are people excited wanting it to fail? Human drivers are horrible. In the time it took me to type this, some distracted driver probably got into an accident. This happens all day everyday. Seems like a pretty useful thing to solve, no?

Cant_Turn_Right

It's OK boys, that 11% drop on TSLA's nothing that FSD and Robotaxi can't fix.

SpaceToaster

Is anyone foolish enough to believe that TSLA can pull off a headless taxi when they have not been able to nail FSD mode yet with a constantly vigilant human driver?

SpaceToaster

Turns out it’s probably going to be FSD mode but no steering wheel to take control, only screams 😅

OrlandoEasyDad

It's really in a weird place with owners being highly loyal to it and Musk sending as many signals as he can that he will go out to protect it's price. Tesla's balance sheet looks wobbly after this latest report. If they wanted to release a new model from scratch - a Model 2 or another mainstream model - they'd probably have to go to the market, I would think, to raise capital. Right now I don't think that dilution would do anything too negative to the stock because of owner loyalty. There's lots of Tesla owners who are ripe for a 2nd or 3rd refresh of an earlier model MY or M3, but it's hard to see how that happens without a major refresh of the line. People aren't going to refresh at a big cost for marginal incremental improvements - the difference between an earlier MY and a 2024 or 2025 MY are pretty marginal for the car business that has conditioned owners to expect a model refresh every 4-8 years. There's so much room to run for Tesla from a company perspective, but it's hard to really understand the strategy. The robotaxi business.. who are the customers? Individuals who want to build a robotaxi fleet? Uber/Lyft? Is Tesla going to operate the fleet directly? It's sort of the same story as the CT. There is a product there, but the scale of the market opportunity doesn't seem to justify the vastness of the capital tied to it. If, for example, CT delivers held apace to what was happening at their rollout, they'd be delivering 100,000 units a year. The US light pickup truck market (so like Dodge RAM, Ford F-150, etc) is something like 5M units; and Tesla *could* have been on track to capture a big chunk of that, but it's so hard to imagine the CT, eating, like even 10% of that market which would be a 5X improvement on initial performance. Between price point, features, and the politics of it.. I don't really understand the market strategy. As a work truck, the CT isn't very strong. As an around town truck for light work scenarios (painters, GCs, carpenters, etc), it would do the job by features but it's hard to see a $100K truck making an impact on this market. TLDR, it's really hard to understand what components are building the stock price at Tesla. How much of the stock price is expectations for future growth in the US market, international market, how much is growth for AI applications, how much is growth for robotics? There's no chance for new management to come in based on Musks control of the board, but it's hard not to imagine the company being vastly more profitable under competent re-focused management; a five part re-strategizing would look: 1) Rebuild the moat deeper and wider; more superchargers, more features, more investment here. 2) Commit to a rolling refresh of the MS, MY, M3 and MX so that each model-plate gets a refresh every 4 years. 3) Keep the CT as it is, but release the CTX, which is a conventional looking light truck on the MY chasis, and price it aggressively to take on ICE light trucks and F-150 segment space. 4) Divest robotics, continue investment into FSD, find an institutional partner for the "other bets" in AI. 5) Re-set the scale and operations of the power business, and work hard to cross-sell/up-sell on car buyers. See if you can wrap up packages that include solar (whether tile or conventional), Powerwall, and M3/MY purchases so that you can sell an "energy independence" package at the point of sale for one monthly price tag.

Need-Some-Help-Ppl

OP, be careful! The Elmo mods over at r/TeslaMotors and r/TeslaLounge frown upon anyone talking ill of the Jean Yus even outside of the Tesla sub... to the point that they will ban you for saying things even outside of the sub 😯 Anyways... $100 by Oct 2024 seems a bit harsh, My guess would be by Mid Dec 2024 and thats when the big red Elmo himself will need to hit all the deal levers to bring back FUSC for life, FSD transfer, and 0% int rates to lure suckers to try Tesla. Many will only learn after their first BEV that they made the wrong choice to go BEV before 2030.

bpm6666

At which point do the stock owners lose confidence that Tesla is a tech company and not just a car company. At some point Tesla needs to proof that their multiple is justified and not just FSD in 6 monats for the last 10 years.

BitcoinRefuge

Hear me out Full Self Driving (FSD) where you fully drive yourself, I call it driving

Savings-Act8

No, this clock is so broken the arms fell off. TSLA sub $100 by year end. Wake up to the bullshit people. There’s no taxi. It’s another model 3 with a paint job and same cameras with shit FSD that can’t even reverse yet.

GenTelGuy

Elon talked about a bunch of fictional developments that aren't happening for Tesla FSD is happening, just not by Tesla. Waymo, Zoox, Cruise are mostly there and Tesla isn't there and will always be "a year or two away" like they have been for a decade

FullCopy

Here’s the TSLA breakdown: - FSD: Driver assumes liability - Robotaxi: No driver and TSLA assumes 100% liability. This isn’t about the type of AI, it’s where it is used.

blackbarminnosu

Rightly or wrongly I think we’ll see some level of support until the October robo taxi announcement. If that fails to impress we could see it falling off a cliff. I continue to hold a small position based on the FSD potential and the dramatically increased computing power they have to support it. Time will tell if that investment will pay off.

pareofdocks

Maybe, but many people, including myself, thought that once growth collapsed, margins went down, and competition increased, Tesla would no longer trade at a 100 PE. It seems like every time some of Elons bullshit fails, he comes out with even larger bullshit and enough people believe him to keep the stock high. If FSD fails or is delayed again, he will focus more on the "$30T opportunity in humanoid robots".

Visinvictus

Waymo is already in the real world adoption phase, Tesla hasn't driven a single mile in unsupervised FSD.