FSD

Hailtothething

Tesla FSD is incredible and can easily be licensed

PensiveOracle

FSD 12.5.x reviews from anyone who’s tried it? 

PensiveOracle

Intriguing! Guess I gotta try the latest before going full bear. Been a tsla bull from the start but always skeptical FSD would live up to the promises.

Syab_of_Caltrops

FSD is the near future. Anyone who thinks oth3wise is ignant AF

L25M

I used to agree with you until I took FSD 12.5.X on a demo drive. Holy. Smokes. I can seriously see the light at the end of the tunnel. The pace of improvement over the last 3 months has been the same level of improvement over the last 2 years. Seriously impressive stuff

gmdtrn

Tesla cars are obviously a real product. But, all day every day Tesla improves it's AI models using data provided by it's Tesla drivers. So, the analogy is perhaps more valid than you intended. However, to date the Robotaxi has never been any more than an off-handed comment by Musk about FSD potential.

Educated_Clownshow

Tesla owners will definitely be receiving their Roadsters, functional FSD, and cars that don’t fall apart at highway speeds Any day now

coinfadays

I grabbed a 2024 performance a few weeks ago , sickest car I’ve ever owned. I also now pop on FSD on the way to work and manage my trades while driving in every day , it’s phenomenal.

PensiveOracle

Yeah pretty much what the Uber CEO said the other day about that. I’m just skeptical FSD is even capable within the next 5 years.

Odd-Gur-9191

Tesla’s FSD is NOWHERE near robotaxi level.

GOTrr

Yeah there are some stocks that I disregard valuation on. I know it’s crazy to say but it’s been good to me. Don’t have regrets though because it was insane investing in it back at that time. Anyone that did it was basically rolling dice. I made a lot of profit and doubted my own thesis. I was surrounded by Tesla haters and kept hearing they will go bankrupt any day. Reading Reddit on Tesla made it worse back in those days too. It’s my fault for doubting myself though. Would have been so much more if I had held on. But at least I have a chunk of it from back then still. I feel the same way about rivian when I read on it now. The same Tesla doubters in my friends and family doubt Rivian but I’ll stick with my hypothesis and keep buying every time they go below 14 a share. I think Tesla has massive avenues to increase profits that nobody else does. Their energy storage business is growing at a great rate, and I do believe they will be closest to solve driving autonomy. I had FSD beta for months and have seen it myself. Nothing will ever be perfect just like human drivers now. But it will be great. Also humanoid robots have a lot of potential. It’s all very ambitious as always with Elon.

notme1234510

Actually own a model 3 with FSD and love it. I’d have more cash to put in Lyft if didn’t pay $30k for that thing. But Tesla will need demand gen and Lyft is an easy acquisition to also soften their brand image

Master-of-possible

Wait til Tesla FSD makes drivers and Uber/Lyft redundant

Ehralur

> You are basically saying that Boeing is in trouble because their planes require expensive airports and jetpacks would be so much cheaper and better. If jetpacks would exist and be able to operate safely on the same distances, then yes. > FSD was involved in 44 fatalities FSD has so far not been involved in any fatalities. You linked to a list of accidents related to Autopilot, which is entirely different software and has nothing to do with FSD. It's essentially a cooler version of cruise control. On a side note, I haven't found a single accident on that list where Autopilot was the cause of the crash. It's all drunk drivers, other involved vehicles at fault or undetermined who was at fault.

WeGoToMars7

You are basically saying that Boeing is in trouble because their planes require expensive airports and jetpacks would be so much cheaper and better. FSD was involved in [44 fatalities](https://www.tesladeaths.com/) compared to Waymo's 0, I wonder what would the consumer choose in a race to the bottom taxi market? The only real benefit to Tesla's idea, the fact that you can turn your car into a robotaxi when you are not using it is a complete lunacy in terms of insurance, liability, and logistics.

Ehralur

Because the end result is not the same. LiDAR is expensive not just to put on cars but also to operate, as it requires pre-scanned environments. That means you're not going to operate outside geofenced areas and your product is gonna be limited to metropolitan areas and highways, even if you don't have any competition. So while Waymo is a great product that could scale massively from where it is today, it won't be competing with Tesla's FSD (if that ever ends up working) outside of metro areas and busy highways. And inside the geofenced areas it would be at a massive cost disadvantage compared to a vision-based approach.

Bic_wat_u_say

Why does the method matter if the end product is the same? LIDAR vs FSD ai software doesn’t matter it’s the collision rates , and KPIs that do

Ehralur

> and other bets such as WAYMO are arguably ahead of TESLA FSD They're not even making competing products. This is like saying Uber is ahead of Doordash.

Bic_wat_u_say

Expect this is all just personal opinion and fundamentally googles doing very well QoQ with search revenue , cloud growth and other bets such as WAYMO are arguably ahead of TESLA FSD

saudiaramcoshill

>This video was faked, he knew it was fake, and boasted about the faked FSD features on twitter. From the article you linked: >“I will be telling the world that this is what the car *will* be able to do,” Musk continued, “not that it can do this upon receipt.” So... >(this is a lie) No, it's not - he's describing what's happening in the video, legally. He's not making claims about what the car can currently do, he's saying what it is doing in the video. >They made the tesla drive "autonomously" on an entirely predetermined route. Which isn't illegal. It's a demo. You seem to have a hard time distinguishing between what he actually says and what you're interpreting him to say - your interpretation fits what you want to believe he's saying, but legally, he has a pretty easy argument for alternatives. >supposed to cost 38k and generate 30k of passive income per year, does that not raise any red flags in that economist’s brain of yours? You didn't link to this, and given your bad record of misinterpreting what he says, I don't really trust anything you say that Musk claimed, at this point.

Old-Glove9438

Ok here is your proof (unless you think those tweets are fake or something) [Tweet from 2016:](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/789019145853513729?lang=en) > Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot https://tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-teslas… (The link to the video is 404 not found) This video was faked, [he knew it was fake](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/elon-musk-directed-tesla-autopilot-video-saying-car-drove-itself-tsla), and boasted about the faked FSD features on twitter. How is this not lying to investors, customers and media ? But this is only scratching the surface (robot taxis announced in 2019, supposed to cost 38k and generate 30k of passive income per year, does that not raise any red flags in that economist’s brain of yours?, fake solar tiles, fake solar city, fake hyperloop, fake robot picking up boxes video, fake Tesla semi claims everything is fucking fake). However I’ll limit it to this because I have other stuff to do.

rcbjfdhjjhfd

Was he drunk or something? Waymo is the leader in FSD so why would he say they’re behind in AI?

Adrestia2790

Boston Dynamics incorporates neural networks / machine learning too. I don't know why you called this AGI. Vision only means that you get ambiguity. Before Radar was removed, the car would double-check with it to make sure it wouldn't collide with anything but that's not the case anymore. As a result, Teslas sometimes ram into things at full speed when there's an ambiguous situation. E.G: Motorcycles are night where narrow low down red tail lights can be confused as car tail lights far away. I think you're pinning all your hopes on FSD working and it's a technology that has failed to delver and faked its performance / demos in the past. I reckon Tesla will be -70% by the next 3 years. And I'm gonna put my money on that.

saudiaramcoshill

> sued Tesla and won because Tesla over exaggerated claims about Autopilot/FSD 1. They didn't *win* this lawsuit. They settled the lawsuit, which is not the same thing. My wife is a lawyer and has personally settled cases that their company expected to win because settling was the cheaper option. 2. The lawsuit had to do with defects with the car, and the central point had little to do with Tesla's or Musk's claims about autonomous driving. >As for Thunderf00t I think just being a YouTuber doesn’t automatically discredit you. It doesn't mean he's *wrong*, it just means that I'm not going to go watch his video on the off-chance he might be right. He doesn't have any credentials to make his videos worth watching to me: why would I consider him trustworthy? >And Thunderf00t happens to be a reputable researcher in chemistry Why do you think that makes him an expert on EVs or Tesla? >Theranos. 11 years 3 months prison for CEO Theranos and Holmes being guilty of fraud doesn't make Tesla/Musk guilty of fraud. In fact, the fact that she was prosecuted for fraud suggests that our legal system does, in fact, chase these allegations. So why did Holmes and Theranos get prosecuted, and Musk doesn't, when Musk is easily more notable and public-facing? >2016 article: Elon Musk says fully self-driving Tesla cars already being built No, that's the clickbait headline. The article actually says that he said: >All new Tesla models are being built with hardware **to enable** them to be fully self-driving, Elon Musk has announced. Having the hardware to be self-driving doesn't mean that the car is currently capable of self-driving. >The German government has called on Elon Musk’s company to stop using the Autopilot branding Ok? That doesn't mean he's committed fraud lol. >As Elon Musk promises ‘full self-driving,’ experts worry Tesla is ‘using consumers as guinea pigs’ Nothing in this article suggests that Musk has made fraudulent claims. >alleging that the Autopilot system in Tesla cars How is this linked to Musk making fraudulent claims? >sued after they were later presented with price hikes and delays How is this criminal fraud? They sued for damages and won them because Tesla didn't live up to its contract, but that's not fraud, and it's especially not fraud from Musk - something his company doesn't deliver on is not personal liability for a criminal offense. >This one is unresolved and I trust musk will be condemned This is maybe the only one that would prove your point... but it's unresolved, and it's odd that you think he's going to lose, given that he's been [sued for false claims in the past](https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/41919956/Young_v_Tesla,_Inc) and the case was dismissed. >And there are so many more including child labor, racism, labor rights….. This sentence represents the issue with your entire comment. It seems that I need to remind you that I'm not making any argument about Musk being a good person. You said: >He should be in prison for financial fraud And now you've simply proceeded to not make any arguments about that, and have moved the goalposts to other topics which I did not make any comment about. Control your thoughts and stay on topic. This is not a place to comment generally on Musk, because I don't give a fuck about Musk. I care about you making claims that he should be in jail for financial fraud without making any solid argument for him having actually committed that act.

Zealousideal_Pay_525

>I don't. I literally talked about a company that has robots working right now in warehouses and the frontlines of a war. It's Tesla's Optimus that's miles behind Robots have existed for centuries. Robots, that can learn to do \*any thing\* a human can do, have not. I haven't denied that there are robots being produced today that can do a certain specific thing very well, but that's not the value proposition of Optimus. >Waymo uses sensor fusion of vision, radar and lidar mapped streets so that the autopilot system knows 100% what it's seeing. like I said, Tesla refused to adopt Lidar for this reason and then scrapped radar as well. This has already caused deaths I'm not sure what you're arguing against here. I think Elon's argument towards humans also only possessing visual sensors to interpret road signage and events is quite convincing. Why would an AI not be able to perform similarly well or even better when supplied with the same data? >No, because the internal emails of Tesla in 2016 that were revealed in the recent court case showed that demos have been staged and faked at the behest of Elon before. It's not a conspiracy theory; Elon and Tesla just has no credibility in this regard. If you're living in 2016, your sentiment towards FSD is not a surprise. Tesla has only recently scrapped most of their initial approach to FSD in favour of an end-to-end neural network solution, which is already orders of magnitude more performant than the prior statically programmatic approach both with regards to decision making and driving comfort. I highly encourage you to watch some of the latest videos of FSD 12.5.x in action and form your own opinion. I know people who use FSD privately; this is not staged. >Some of the car companies I mentioned prior also manufacture batteries. Tesla batteries merely change the packaging; not improve the technology. That's of no concern in my opinion. Tesla is renowned for their manufacturing prowess. Besides, they will likely outcompete other producers when it comes to infrastructure contracting simply because they're an American company. The demand will far outmatch the currently available supply, so there's a piece of the pie available for everyone anyways. >Also, the idea of LI-ION buffer storage for renewables is really showcasing you lack a sense of scale of this technology. There's a reason why other companies have avoided this. I do not know what you're referring to here as I lack the necessary technical understanding; however, I'd expect a company which has successfully driven innovation in the past to not make mistakes a random dude on reddit would be able to lecture me about. I'm sure there are valid reasons for their choice of storage technology. I haven't looked into the exact valuation fundamentals. However, I'm not seeing any other company make FSD-capable retail grade cars (a product which will be highly sought after) en masse, which leads me to believe that any valuation really is justified at this point, since they're effectively going to have a monopoly. FSD-capable vehicles are the first mass produced, consumer oriented AI-robotis merger product and they will capture the global market by storm.

Adrestia2790

> I do agree that Optimus and similar AGI bots are likely still a long way out I don't. I literally talked about a company that has robots working right now in warehouses and the frontlines of a war. It's Tesla's Optimus that's miles behind. > Waymo robotaxi operates in restricted areas of urban centers to ensure max reliability in execution. Waymo uses sensor fusion of vision, radar and lidar mapped streets so that the autopilot system knows 100% what it's seeing. like I said, Tesla refused to adopt Lidar for this reason and then scrapped radar as well. This has already caused deaths. > you've watched any of the recent FSD versions perform on US streets, you know that full fledged, vision-only FSD at this point is only a matter of time No, because the internal emails of Tesla in 2016 that were revealed in the recent court case showed that demos have been staged and faked at the behest of Elon before. It's not a conspiracy theory; Elon and Tesla just has no credibility in this regard. > At last there's their venture into the energy storage business, which is going to see rapid growth acceleration in the near future due to the increased demand for energy availability in computation and storage in renewables. Some of the car companies I mentioned prior also manufacture batteries. Tesla batteries merely change the packaging; not improve the technology. Also, the idea of LI-ION buffer storage for renewables is really showcasing you lack a sense of scale of this technology. There's a reason why other companies have avoided this. > they're positioned in multiple high growth sector Their revenue states otherwise. For a car company, it's actually respectable since profit margins are usually low in automotive companies. However, a p/e of 50 means even if all the tech came to fruition; the current price is overpriced. If the technology doesn't pan out or a competitor gets there first (which I have argued is the case) then it's worth considerably less than it is now.

Old-Glove9438

Not only has Tesla been sued but it has lost the law suit [lost the law suit](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/08/tesla-settles-wrongful-death-lawsuit-over-fatal-2018-autopilot-crash.html) And I’ve heard about many other “FSD” related law suits. As for Thunderf00t I think just being a YouTuber doesn’t automatically discredit you. I mean politicians, scientists, artists are all YouTubers nowadays. And Thunderf00t happens to be a reputable researcher in chemistry. Look I don’t want to dig the internet to find the exact source where he says FSD is available now. He said this and so many other incriminating things (yes it is incriminating, just as saying a blood test “works” when it doesn’t. Theranos. 11 years 3 months prison for CEO. Because people’s lives are at stake there). [2016 article: Elon Musk says fully self-driving Tesla cars already being built](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/20/elon-musk-says-fully-self-driving-tesla-cars-already-being-built) From the article: The German government has called on Elon Musk’s company to stop using the Autopilot branding, while the maker of the original version decided to stop selling it to Tesla, accusing the electric car company of “pushing the envelope” on safety by using the system for a purpose for which it was never designed. [article from 2018: As Elon Musk promises ‘full self-driving,’ experts worry Tesla is ‘using consumers as guinea pigs’](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2018/06/11/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-tesla-soon-despite-autopilot-crashes/) From the article: “Tesla has a history of using consumers as guinea pigs,” said David Friedman, the director of cars and product policy at Consumers Union, the advocacy arm of Consumer Reports. Tesla’s “misleading” marketing, he said, has had the dangerous effect of “providing overconfidence and building you up to thinking it’s safer than it actually is.” Wiki list of Tesla lawsuits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lawsuits_involving_Tesla,_Inc. In the list you can find: In August 2022, a consumer class action was filed alleging that the Autopilot system in Tesla cars “contains a hazardous defect which causes the vehicle to suddenly and unintentionally brake”, a phenomenon dubbed phantom braking.[36][37] As of March 2024, the case is unresolved. This one was settled because the solar tiles were fake: In 2021, Tesla Solar Roof customers who had signed contracts with the company sued after they were later presented with price hikes and delays. Following the court’s consolidation of the individual cases, Tesla created a program offering to return the prices to their original amounts to those affected.[177][178] In 2023, Tesla settled the lawsuit for $6 million. This one is unresolved and I trust musk will be condemned: Deceptive Autopilot and Full Self-Driving advertising edit In September 2022, a proposed class action federal lawsuit was filed against Tesla for Elon Musk allegedly misleading customers “who since 2016 bought or leased Tesla vehicles with Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features” with his predictions that Teslas would soon be fully autonomous cars.[43] Over 300,000 vehicles were recalled due to being unsafe around intersections.[44] As of March 2024, the case is unresolved.[45] And there are so many more including child labor, racism, labor rights…..

binzo21

Quite the opposite if they solve FSD/robotaxi and the under 25-30k car is produced in 2025.

Zealousideal_Pay_525

5x would be +400%. Relative valuations don't make sense for a company involved in as many disruptive technologies as Tesla. I do agree that Optimus and similar AGI bots are a likely still long way out, especially when considering the regulatory hurdles a human-like AGI on 2 legs would bring with it. Tgis is why I don't consider Optimus for my investment thesis. Waymo robotaxi operates in restricted areas of urban centers to ensure max reliability in execution. Tesla FSD won't be limited in such a way, since their cars are cheap enough in production to be retail-grade. If you've watched *any* of the recent FSD versions perform on US streets, you know that full fledged, vision-only FSD at this point is only a matter of time, after which Waymo and other Robotaxi businesses will not be competitive anymore because of the exorbitant manufacturing cost of their vehicles. At last there's their venture into the energy storage business, which is going to see rapid growth acceleration in the near future due to the increased demand for energy availability in computation and storage in renewables. Yes, I do believe that Tesla will be one of the biggest companies on Earth, because they're positioned in multiple high growth sectors and they've proven in the past to have vision as well as the competence to implement it.

coinfadays

Get a Tesla with FSD and trade Wilst you drive. I do this shit every day

Adrestia2790

So you expect Tesla to be +500% in the next 5 years when it's currently at a p/e of 50, be worth 7% of the S&P500 and worth almost triple the world's top 10 car manufacturers combined when I already talked about most of those car companies are involved in heavy industrial engineering and logistics. The person at the top of the thread said 100x bagger, obviously that's madness since Tesla would be worth more than the entire S&P500. On the basis of FSD. Waymo, owned by google, has far more impressive tech with safer technology (Lidar) which Elon Musk has turned his back on as well as stripping radar for Vision alone (because it's cheaper). Tesla Optimus demonstrations have been staged and faked for the most part. For example, the folding laundry video: https://youtu.be/pycyMUQwiNs At 11 seconds, you can see the puppeteer just slightly off camera who is controlling the robot. In comparison to Boston Dynamics, which I feel like doesn't need a [link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeeiN9smjjY). Boston Dynamics has a p/e ratio of 5 (Hyndai Motor Company). Waymo, google, has a p/e of 23.

mayorolivia

We are at least 10 years away from adoption of FSD and I think that’s optimistic at this point. No one has figured it out after 20 years of R&D. Even if we nailed it tomorrow we’d have regulatory hurdles in place, followed by consumer adoption hurdles (most would be terrified of the notion). Then the moment we have an accident, you’d have a new round of regulatory and consumer adoption challenges. Humans don’t bat an eye when our errors cause an accident but we’re not ready for technology to be responsible for accidents.

slick2hold

Laughing at any possibility of tesla actually deploying anything resembling real self driving with the current hardware and sensors. Not going to happen or get approval. The cars can even see anything directly in front of them. If Elon finally puts aside his ego and goes back to radar lidar and video then he might have a chance but Tesla doesn't even have cars on the road for testing with controlled variables. The people driving around with current FSD isn't the same.

Me-Myself-I787

They wouldn't want that. Waymo competes with Tesla FSD and Democrats hate Tesla, and Wayno needs Google's R&D money.

GraceBoorFan

Analyst: “Tesla FSD V12 is stunningly amazing” >TSLA stock: -3.50%

Zealousideal_Pay_525

Tesla very much is not a 100x bagger, that's an insane proposition to even consider or look for; it's gambling. However, a decent 5x in the next 3-5 years based on FSD alone is sandbagged.

moderationscarcity

if FSD was going to be available in 2012, why doesn't it work now?

supremestoic

Like the FSD, this might begin some time

UsernameTaken_123

Twitter going the way of FSD Elon is a joke

thejumpingsheep2

So you are saying that self driving is not LLM? The most complex implementation is LLM's and consequently thats where the money is being piled into. The hope there is that they can replace call centers, customer support stuff and other simple human interactions. This is the holy grail for the big companies and what the hype is all about. This is why the NASDAQ is at 39 PE and nearly 50% higher than its 20 year median. Most companies are not even trying anything more complex and the few that are, are not getting anywhere. Tesla is an example of this. How many years of driving data do they have now? They have more than they need and yet their FSD is totally unacceptable. The reason being, all the data in the world doesnt make you intelligent. There is very little 'I' in the way we implement 'AI.' Its not really intelligent. OTOH Amazon seems to have found ways to implement it in logistics and warehousing. Good stuff there. Not that it matters, but dogs are not like 2 year olds intellectually. Physically animals tend to be far more advanced than humans but thats all. Intellectually, a dog on their best day might be like a 9 month old child or perhaps a slow 1 year old (I had two of those and 1 of the former). By 1 year human beings can understand language and they start to speak. Human being also can self learn with intent. For instance, you dont need to teach a person language explicitly. They will learn it just by being around it. Its obviously more efficient to teach them explicitly to which they learn very quickly. You can put a dog in the middle of a 24 hour talk show forever and it will never learn anything unless you train it explicitly. BTW this is also true of our so called 'AI.' Intelligence by balls...

Upswing5849

Great. Now explain to me TSLA's earnings and financials? Where is the revenue? Where is the profitability? Where are all the promises that Elon made? Where is FSD? Where is the $30K Tesla? How come Elon is suddenly pivoting away from cars and towards other vaporware like "optimus" and "AI"? Can you not see that this guy is clearly a fraud?

Upswing5849

Really? Because I was told that Tesla would have FSD... like many years ago. And that we would begin colonizing Mars by 2025... And that the hyperloop was going to change everything and replace rail... Elon Musk is Elizabeth Holmes. Both are liars. Both are woefully inept at science and engineering. Musk will ultimately get his comeuppance, if he doesn't jump off a bridge first.

doublesteakhead

I suppose that was the deal. But it certainly leaves a bad taste that he did it with lying, again and again, and it seems clear eventually the stock price is going to crash once reality sets in. Over a decade of full self driving, now robots, we're an AI company actually, other companies are going to license FSD, Cybertruck can briefly serve as a boat, new roadster will have jet engines...  Lawsuits seem inevitable. 

murray_paul

> FSD has been nothing but a pipedream fed to people/investors in order to fund the development of the technology. Whereas what happens with man-shaped robots will be *completely* different. Fool me once ...

Hofnars

No. If FSD followed the same path autonomous robots will, FSD vehicles would ship being able to drive you around the block, gradually being fed updates through a subscription that would add new routes and destinations. FSD has been nothing but a pipedream fed to people/investors in order to fund the development of the technology. The application of that tech is not going to be FSD.

murray_paul

> The difference is that Optimus, or any such device, doesn't have to be shipped in it's desired or imagined end state. Rather, it would lend itself well to a subscription model where functionality gradually improves and increases over time and at a cost. How is that different? It is exactly what Tesla have done with FSD. Promise a magical product that is always going to be finished next year, and charge you while you wait.

Knerd5

I really don’t think Tesla has matched waymo and the reality is with the hardware that exists on the current cars they never will. Actual self driving can’t happen with just cameras. FSD is capable but I’ve been in some legit asshole clenching situations with it too.

JediRebel79

If you think Tesla is only about cars, you need to do more DD. Does Toyota make battery packs or Robots? As for Chinese companies, I don't know if you heard but Tesla sold more cars in China last quarter than these companies you talk about. Oh yeah and China is loving the FSD which will be licensed to your beloved Toyota one day. So yeah, no comparison 🙅‍♂️

grizzly_teddy

> with Toyota announcing 9 minute charging capability Rofl. You know how many times Toyota has announced new EV tech? Boy that cried wolf at this point. Fucking irrelevant. What matters is if they mass produce it affordably. They don't have any EVs that people want. Toyota is so far behind on EVs it's not even funny. > and the fall out of the robotaxi stuff with Uber Wtf are you talking about? Uber doesn't have shit. FSD improvements in each version are pretty staggering and fast. Their camera only, AI driven solution is working. They will be robotaxi ready in several cities by mid year next year at this rate. Shorting Tesla is dumb. Period.

kookofpain

Funny that you mention FSD Pharma because the stock was rallying yesterday.

GeoLogic23

FSD Pharma was an investor in High Tide when Ripshtein was at Aphria, and then [Aphria also invested in High Tide](https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aphria-anchors-high-tide-10-million-capital-raise/) in early 2019. These alcohol reducing product companies are interesting candidates for CBD in my opinion, as there have been [studies](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/cbd-might-help-you-cut-back-on-drinking-alcohol-and-reduce-its-damaging-effects-study-says/) that have [shown](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4112960/) that CBD may protect against liver damage from alcohol. I'm sure it needs more research. Celly Nutrition is supposed to be releasing their alcohol reducing product soon, and so is a similar company called Safety Shot. I had forgotten about this company until I was looking for reverse split companies and they were brought to my attention. I had forgotten [Safety Shot used to be called Jupiter Wellness](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/09/14/2743678/0/en/Jupiter-Wellness-Changes-its-Name-to-Safety-Shot-and-Ticker-to-SHOT-in-Alignment-with-New-Business-Focus.html). Before changing to Safety Shot and focusing on functional wellness beverages, Jupiter Wellness referred to themselves as [a leading developer of cannabidiol (CBD) based medical therapeutics and wellness products](https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-skin-care-drug-trials-products-and-services-bcb8297474b2480f6866c00e881e05ea).

RandomGenerator_1

Yes Celsius! And no problem. You provide so much, Im glad I can remind you of some. I now view FSD pharma (quantum biopharma fron august 15th) and celly as some sort of experiment. To launch products/concepts and see if they stick.

GeoLogic23

Thanks for reminding me! I will often Google stuff when I'm out walking my dog, and I take screenshots of stuff I need to write down later. I am guessing it was probably related to this, but one of my recent screenshot is actually of Celly Nutrition and FSD and I had completely forgotten to write it down. Celly co-chair was previously the CEO for Celsius Holdings which is one of Kevin Harrington's big successes.

RandomGenerator_1

Got another loose link for ya. Kevin Harrington is supporting Celly Nutrition. They just announced their "unbuzzd" snack. To rapidly counter effects of alcohol and restore mental allertness. https://cellynutrition.com/our-team/ Celly Nutrition also focusses on cannabis solutions. John Duffy from coca cola is also on that team. And FSD Pharma works with Celly, FSD hoped to be the biggest cannabis company back in 2020 but that didn't quite work out. I think there is something there.

someguy_000

The stock will soar when we see it so won’t be the best time to buy. It’s not just Musk running Tesla there are a lot of smart people managing the company. Do you think a robotaxi fleet isn’t possible? We’ve seen the first signs of this from Waymo, it’s clearly a reality even today. The recent FSD update has been validated by users it’s out you can see how it works for yourself and not listen to Musk.

someguy_000

Regulators and the public will understand as more data comes out and these FSD systems continue to drive miles and we receive data. It is already much safer than a human driver, the data will be undeniable. You’re wrong buddy.

someguy_000

They literally announced their robotaxi event for October 10th, what am I missing? The new FSD update by all accounts is incredible, how far off do you think it is?

OrdinaryAttorney7914

If tesla really did solve FSD then why does my wife still have Female Sexual Dysfunction?

Material_Key5935

Unless you believe Musk is telling the truth this time about FSD I’d sell Tesla. I’m also of wary of apples growth prospects given valuation. Would move some of your NVDA to QQQ for diversification. Most people don’t beat the index picking stocks. My 2 cents.

goodbodha

it will eventually prove its worth the money they paid into it or it will run out of buyers at that price and drop back down to a more rational number. Funny thing is I thinks it probably worth closer to that value than the value people place on apple or tesla. apple to me is overvalued and has more limited growth prospects. Its still worth a lot, but I question the potential for growth there. They basically rehash their phones and release a slightly improved version with obsolescence baked into the business model. Eventually people will decide that is just too much and either stretch further between phones or walk away from it. Its probably just me, but did anyone think it would make sense in the early 90s that most people would be walking around with an expensive fragile device on their person everywhere they went? Tesla... well musk can get stuff done its also apparent he decided to prioritize culture wars over running the business. If that man hadn't bought twitter and just stuck to running his business empire I think things would look a lot different for Tesla and for him. The cybertrucks are a disaster. The growth story is in serious trouble. I own a tesla 3 performance. It is a good car. I think more people should own evs and I suspect Tesla will make a lot of them, but car company valuations are a lot less than Tesla. Now if he can get the FSD to work that would have been incredible, but it looks like they moved backwards with the sensor changes. It also looks like the robots have promise, but then again a bunch of other companies have promising robots. Until something other than cars starts putting out some serious revenue numbers I will hesitate about Tesla.

AddressSpiritual9574

Feeling down so I’m about to go drink and drive. Let’s see how good this Tesla FSD works

Bubbly_Ad427

Add to that, that FSD disengages seconds before collision.

raynorelyp

You’ve got eyes man. It took a while for the issues to start materializing, but they’ve started materializing alright. AGI hit a wall. ChatGPT is arguably getting worse instead of better. OpenAI is running out of money unless they get bailed out by Microsoft within a year. Nvidia’s stock dropped 25% from ath with no reason to think their high sales numbers will continue. The movie industry hasn’t replaced writers and is instead crashing from trying. No company has invented a FSD system that works nationally. Healthcare results, costs, and profits haven’t meaningfully changed. Powerful investors on Wall Street are publicly saying they feel misled about how close AI companies were to products and are pulling their funding. I’m not saying AI will died, but it’s more likely than not the 2022 AI Spring is ending and the AI Winter is around the corner

Expensive_Web_8534

OP, this metric just shows that Tesla Autopilot makes driving safer. It doesn't say anything about whether FSD is ready for field test. The metric you should be looking at is "Average Miles driven per disengagement" - This is number of miles the FSD can drive itself, on average, without a human. Waymo (given that it is geofenced) is around 17k miles/disengagement. Tesla FSD, the latest release (not geofenced) is around 1k miles/disengagement (we don't have sufficient data yet....could be anywhere from 500 to 2k). So Waymo is much better than Tesla at the moment in the limited areas it operates in. It is completely unclear which approach will win in the long run. I suspect both - Waymo will likely take over most major cities where taxis are most used while Tesla FSD may become standard in most cars for general driving. You are free to place your own bets but don't try to say that the race is already over.

tke248

I predict 12 months max, once it happens they will roll their own insurance company and drive cost of owner ship even lower. After 5 years I predict it will be mandated by the government to use FSD.

Mr_Kush_Bush

You'd need to make a safe car with the highest rate of accidents among any maker. Even so, FSD in the next year is a pipe dream.

Patient_Stable_5954

FSD is a L2 system

Super-Base-

Mercedes level 3 was approved because Mercedes agreed to take liability for crashes using its system under strict operating conditions (clear weather, highway only, above a certain speed). It does not mean it’s system is more advanced than Tesla FSD, which it isn’t, in fact it’s not even close.

Redtyde

I think the hypothetical they get broken up is very interesting to explore. You would have: Google Core/Search - The most absurd software business on the planet with 80% operating margins. 15-20 P/E steady cash flow monster like Visa or Mastercard. Youtube - Largest media platform on the planet, growing at a good clip. Growth valuation? Waymo - Current best FSD company on the planet, growth valuation? Android / Mobile (Pixel) Division - Interesting business that could make steps to emulate some of Apple's model without having to serve the greater Google behemoth directly. Deepmind - Absurd potential here, would be incredibly exciting. Google Cloud - Current leader in AI server products, having its own leadership would again be interesting to see how it competes. There aren't any truly independent hyperscalers so its hard to compare it. They also have divisions for healthcare, robotics, private equity, fibre, drones. Who knows what would inherit those or would they be seperate.

NadenOfficial

Compare the current FSD version to how it was at the start of the year it is incredible how consistent and smooth it is. People report driving days without touching the wheel. Still not autonomous but it looks like they might be close after the recent 8x parameter increase for the e2e model. Its now showing signs of predicting traffic event better and even before the human driver notces them. Very bullish.

FreshDiamond

For a company like Tesla there is no amount of cars they can sell to justify the market cap. The energy storage business is exploding but they can’t produce mega packs in great enough numbers yet. It really does appear to be a story of those who believe Tesla will solve FSD and those who don’t. Other EVs company’s though should could benefit. Lucid is pretty shit but they are moving the right direction.

2CommaNoob

I agree; there is a ton of coordinated manipulation. The most obvious is Tesla after that bs earnings. It rockets +60% because Sales are down, decreasing profits, no FSD anytime soon. I get stocks are forward looking but in what world is Tesla +60%.

Party-Score-565

I believe in AI. I can think of so many useful applications not implemented yet that I can only assume are still cooking. No one's gonna pay for a smart chatbot but it's only a matter of time before they integrate those reasoning capabilities with APIs to automate so much stuff. I just realized that with the latest capabilities GPT4o has demonstrated its entirely possible Tesla FSD may become a real thing soon, assuming musky boy doesn't pull a stupid.

sf_warriors

When I tried Super Cruise last year felt it felt confidence inspiring, sometimes less is more, compared to FSD it does little but does it better whatever it does. Super Cruise better than FSD 11 but FSD 12 takes the cake for now, that said GM has a very good foundational platform and let its subsidiary Cruise do the magic. Except Tesla and GM’s Super Cruise rest all are sub standard imo

Cheesy_Discharge

>Their demand for their highest costing model is higher than demand for Ford lightning... think about that.  The Ford Lightning that only accounts for 3% of the sales volume of the standard F150. That's a pretty low bar. >Their wait list is gigantic. For now. Once the novelty wears off, the number of cancellations could be gigantic. Even if production ramps up, profitability is still questionable. At best you're spending time and attention on an extremely low-margin vehicle while your higher-margin models are undergoing price cuts due to outdated designs. >China doing well, but tariffs gonna happen, and BYD makes almost no money on their EVs, and many of their EVs can't possibly considered actual competition to a Model 3. Tariffs won't impact the Chinese market, or the developing world. Tesla will lose market share in China, which represents 22% of their revenue. > Tesla latest versions of FSD clearly prove cameras only will work and scale better than the dumb shit Waymo is doing. Waymo lets you sit in the back with no driver. With Tesla's system you have to hold onto the steering wheel. That proves that Waymo's approach (while incomplete), is *far* ahead of Tesla's. Waymo's tests are expanding, while Tesla FSD has remained vaporware. Remember that Elon promised that a Tesla would be capable of navigating from LA to NYC with no driver by 2020. >In terms of value, the market is effectively giving FSD about a 5% chance of success. That's undervalued if anything. Elon Musk thinks Tesla is nearly "worthless" without FSD. When the market finally realizes that FSD is a dead end, look out. Calling it a undervalued at this point is utter stupidity and wishful thinking for someone with such a clear Musk boner.

grizzly_teddy

> Cybertruck is an embarrassing failure. "Low-cost" crossover model is vaporware Their demand for their highest costing model is higher than demand for Ford lightning... think about that. They extended the amount of time they are exclusively producing high end model because the demand has been high. Their wait list is gigantic. Calling it a failure at this point is utter stupidity and wishful thinking for someone with such a clear hate boner. China doing well, but tariffs gonna happen, and BYD makes almost no money on their EVs, and many of their EVs can't possibly considered actual competition to a Model 3. > EV demand is cooling For shit EVs that cost too much yes. > Tesla Robotaxis will never be a thing, because Musk kneecapped FSD by insisting on vision-only. Meanwhile competitors have actual Robotaxis carrying real passengers in test markets. Yeah, HD maps + LiDar + geofencing is scalable and profitable long term! /s. Those aren't solutions, they will never scale, they don't have the data and # of cars they need. Tesla latest versions of FSD clearly prove cameras only will work and scale better than the dumb shit Waymo is doing. In terms of value, the market is effectively giving FSD about a 5% chance of success. That's undervalued if anything.

hamstercrisis

Tesla FSD is a promise for impossible world-changing tech that keeps getting pushed back every year. This is just a couple extra doodads on the phone.

Cheesy_Discharge

Energy has decent margins and solid growth, but nothing like a true "tech company". Tesla's stock is priced for much higher growth than the energy division can provide. Tech companies can scale very cheaply, hence the lofty multiples. >auto division is smack in the middle of new models and a growth phase Tesla's US market share has fallen by 33% in the US since 2022, and EV demand is cooling. In China, the situation is even more dire as high-quality low-cost Chinese EVs flood the market. Tesla has been forced to cut prices in the face of increased competition. Cybertruck is an embarrassing failure. "Low-cost" crossover model is vaporware (as is the new Roadster). In the mean time, the best-selling Model Y and Model 3 are becoming more and more outdated. Tesla Robotaxis will never be a thing, because Musk kneecapped FSD by insisting on vision-only. Meanwhile competitors have actual Robotaxis carrying real passengers in test markets. Musk is alienating Tesla's core demographic by choosing sides in the US election, and his constant lying about FSD has prompted a fraud investigation. All of these problems are fixable, and Tesla isn't going anywhere, but they are overvalued at the moment.

GreenBackReaper520

Would you compare this with tesla FSD? Just as shitty?

SpongeSquidward

Supervised FSD!

NotTakenGreatName

FSD 12.9 will let us know for sure

TerraMindFigure

Self-driving AI is decades away, Elon Musk has bet the company's future on many things... FSD, Robotaxis (several years ago), electric semitrucks, personal robots, cyber truck, and now we're *back* to Robotaxis At this point believing in Elon Musk is an IQ test.

According_Freedom_62

and this is from Elon Cuck, Just did a walkthrough of the Tesla supercompute cluster at Giga Texas (aka Cortex). This will be \~100k H100/H200 with massive storage for video training of FSD & Optimus. Great work by the Tesla team!

Motorbarge

August 1st, 86 Million shares were traded on Nasdaq. (The highest daily volume in July was about 3 Million shares and the float appears to be less than 50 Million shares) Looking into that, in the first two minutes, 50 million of those shares were traded. The price opened at 0.12, reached 0.1272 and closed at 0.1122. It looks like a motivated buyer was met by a motivated seller who had access to a lot of shares - maybe more shares than are actually in the float. If you think this indicates naked shorting, you aren't the first to think that about this stock: [FSD Pharma Retains Christian Attar Law and Team of Experts to Lead Preliminary Investigation of Possible Naked Short Selling and Manipulation in its stock](https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2023/07/10/fsd-pharma-retains-christian-attar-law-and-team-of-experts-to-lead-preliminary) My takeaway from this is that, if someone shorted 50 million shares at 10 cents, they are certainly going to put a lot of effort into a) closing that position, b) making a private placement at less than 10 cents to cover the short position, or c) forcing the company into bankruptcy. What the company has, that is worthy of this kind of interest, is >Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Lucid Psycheceuticals Inc. ("**Lucid**"), FSD is focused on the research and development of its lead compound, Lucid-MS (formerly Lucid-21-302) ("**Lucid-MS**"). Lucid-MS is a patented new chemical entity shown to prevent and reverse myelin degradation, the underlying mechanism of multiple sclerosis I'm going to wait for the inevitable reverse split and for a private placement that includes a pile of cheap warrants.

vintage37

Anybody on FSD Pharma HUGE?

Caesars_Palace321

People that actually believe it's FSD should go and look at what the top 3 actual FSD companies are up to right now.

Immediate_Wrap_5715

I think you made a good long-term investment. Intel is one of the leading companies in chips, and when it comes to AI, it has been shown that specific chips surpass GPUs. Just look at Google with its TPUs and Tesla with FSD. I recommend you investigate more since they offer many benefits.

SkinDustMask

You’re not dumb, it’s a good topic. So, I think a massive PR scare would have people reconsidering doing business with Elon, sure. Do I think institutions HF’s and any other SM give a rats wing, I do not. I’ll give you a scenario of two tweets; a) “We have updated the timeline for FSD to TBD and will update in the coming month” and b) “That chick was a man”. Which one makes the people mad which one moves the underlying?

Salt_Recipe_8015

I have one, and I have to bail out of FSD at least once a day.

cpm619

Lots of cognitive dissonance with Tesla FSD. Whether or not you agree on the timeline Elon projects on achieving it fully, does not negate how far ahead they are on the technology against competitors.

parsley_lover

Did Elon just solve FSD?

rlovepalomar

Do you have a Tesla and use FSD everyday? If so then you’d know

sonobono11

Scale, price of car, and cost to manufacture are vastly in teslas favor. I use FSD everyday on a $30K car. You’re letting you politics blind you from reality

Emergency-Ticket5859

Golf carts will be FSD. Bullish

BlazinHotNachoCheese

Apple Intelligence sounds a lot like Tesla FSD 3 years ago.

Key-Ad331

FSD is killing people and musk is a fucking tool

parsley_lover

How can anyone still believe Musk when he promises FSD by October. Something that doesn't exist? After all these empty promises?

Caster0

yep, while Elon is still trying to pushback FSD year after year, companies like google are already implementing robotaxis. It still amazes that the market is willing to give even an ounce of credibility to elon musk after years and years of misleading shareholders with unfulfilled promises and expectations

Snoo23417

Bullish. FSD learns from its mistakes. The more people killed, the better it gets.

d8_thc

> First, Tesla is not closer to FSD than any other company. Utter nonsense