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Calling it now. Within the next 5-7 business days, Elon will do some dumb shit involving BBBY. Probably just a tweet. Bagholders will still HODL on the 50% pump and Elon will bag a solid million. Then reduce his FSD to a single camera.
Yes I agree on what the future will be as far as FSD, Solar roof,Tesla bot energy storage is already a success but needs to scale with more batteries. Charging stations a success and when opened to all cars it will be even better. So say they only hit a success with one other product they already have one with EVs that they will dominate for at least 3 more years. ( I believe longer) and 2 other products that are successful and are about to scale. With 2 or more new products that have AWSOME potential. So is it worth a risk my opinion in Yes big time! I’m already over 6X my original investment in about 3 years. And with no other new products making a contribution I believe in EVs alone it will double again in 2 years. Just with Semi and Pick up coming on line.
That's great and all, but you're discounting the fact that FSD has been promised since like 2015, they face significant regulatory risk in California, other manufacturers are *finally* moving into EVs, their autonomous driving keeps trucking kids in tests, LIDAR could prove more effective, you can buy a robot mower already for 1/10th of the price, etc. As for solar, I'm looking to replace my roof and I would be a prime candidate for Tesla's roofs. But they are just too damned expensive to justify the cost.
Apples to Oranges but Tesla was the buy of the year at $630s. Split adjusted it will be $1,200 or more after 4th quarter numbers. No one will come close for at least 3 years and by then FSD or Tesla bot or solar/ battery storage may be the big money maker. If all 3 come into giga production scale Tesla will be the biggest most valuable company the world has ever seen.
I think there are several reasons to it. 1. Moat. Amazon has a well-established moat in several of its core businesses. Tesla is said by some to have one of the strongest moats ever: data, software and hardware for FSD. This will give them a massive edge in the FSD segment which is huge. Others say they have no moat and their millions of miles of data is rivalled very well by billions of virtually driven miles; their software and NPUs are rivalled by e.g. NVDA's DRIVE suit. For Amazon, there is no real debate on whether they will dominate their given business segments. 2. History. Amazon has arguably a longer history as a company which has gone through several boom-bust cycles, hence they have "proven" they are able to navigate rough waters. History is extremely important in the stock market and a long-lasting company with a stable management is worth a lot. And then you have Elon Musk. 3. China. 1/3 of cars were sold in China (of the last quarter). China is the biggest car market in the world and its plans to include EVs into their everyday life are set in stone (5-year plans). It is, however, a little risky to have such huge business in China nowadays. On the contrary, it is a big benefit to have revenue streams in different currencies and be diversified geographically; not only does it increase the TAM you can capture but it also helps vs currency devaluations. Amazons business is concentrated to US and EU mostly. Highly regulated markets, which is a benefit also. 4. Debt interest. This is related to many other indicators and shows how "trusted" corporations are by big banks. Amazon's effective interest rate (latest twelve months) is \~1.4%, for Tesla it is more than double that with \~3.3%. Hence, Amazon is not only able to refinance debt for lower levels, the market is trusting Amazon more than Tesla if it comes to lending money. If you want to compare two companies, first thing to do is compare the interest they pay on the debt they issue. According to this, the valuation must be higher for Amazon, because they are less likely to default. In other words, Tesla incorporates much higher levels of risk into your portfolio than Amazon, even though you pay roughly the same for their earnings. From a risk-perspective, Tesla is the worse deal here. Ofc there are many reasons besides the metrics you and I discuss here that are important. I should clarify that I own shares of both companies.
Data. Fundamentally Tesla has more data on driving then probably all the competition combined. They can review events from multiple perspectives. Teaching cars how to drive requires all the data to train the machine learning algorithms how to drive. Every error that FSD makes where a human takes over can help train the AI even better. I don't expect the current hardware to become driverless, but they will get there in a few years with better cameras, sensors and computers. My guess is FSD hardware 5 will become driverless.
How is that? It's a more vertically integrated car company (by majority of revenue) and all the expansion is in line with that. Current valuation assumes something like 50% of the auto market by 2030 and actual FSD. The valuation seems to elide a ton of small but significant risks. By actuarial tables, Elon has something like a 5% chance of dying before then, for example. We could see factory issues in China and Germany pretty easily this year with more covid, domestic strife, or Russian energy fuckery and yet TSLA, which has missed deliveries and barely made revenue estimates, has outperformed almost everything in QQQ and all the auto companies this year.
Nope. Look at Apple their devices are relatively cheap to make they make a killing on software and services. Cars will head the same way... race to the cheapest way to manufacturing a n d they'll make their money on services. The car just becomes a platform for selling you stuff from FSD to insurance to games etc etc
You'll find reversing the neural net used in FSD a nearly impossible task. Not even the people that designed it fully understands it. It's one of the quiks of modern AI systems. You set up some optimization functions do a bit of linear algebra plus gradient descent and boom you end up with a system that assigned weights to neurons that you have no clue how they "reason". Welcome to the Age of Black Box programming
I mean, they can’t fart like teslas can but different Chinese EVs offer other tech advantages. I suppose it depends what you are looking for, but as a NIO owner and also lots of experience driving tesla, I’d say things like battery swap, transparent chassis, group drive capability, AR Hud are all beyond what tesla does. Of course Tesla has Dog Mode which is great and NIO doesn’t offer. I haven’t tried FSD but regular autopilot on Tesla vs NIO I prefer NIO. It doesn’t ever phantom brake anymore but Tesla still does. If you look into other brands you’ll see that they are also doing some cool things. HiPhi X can project a sidewalk onto the road to indicate it’s safe for pedestrians to walk. I don’t know that that is necessarily “tech” that matters to anyone, but it’s interesting what is out there.
\>TSLA won't run into dummy children, autopilot is off! \>if it does run into dummy children it's intentional because it knows they are dummies!! [this video is crazy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifwbs-pyjcM), it only randomly detects the dummy. the worst part is at 1:32 when he uses FSD, the car tries to avoid the dummy, the car goes straight for his kids standing on the side of the road and he manually disengages
I think you misunderstood. I don't want price targets for your bear/base/bull case. I'd like to hear what kind of numbers do you think TSLA will do. The way I see it, what you have as "base case" is already a ridiculously optimistic, more or less speculative bull case. PEG at the current valuation is nowhere near stellar, and that's even with your 50% growth assumption into 2026. You believe a price of $2,000, which even at your EPS assumption means a P/E of roughly 100, is a reasonable valuation by the end of 2023/2024? Just what kind of numbers do you expect TSLA to do? What's more, that kind of valuation implies your assumed growth not just into 2026 but years and years and years beyond that. Just how big do you think a company like this is gonna get? With those assumptions, you must expect TSLA to turn into a 5T company within the 2020s. To me, that's straight up deluded. Especially as a base case. Even if everything they attempt works out to perfection, that's a harsh expectation. Just how many cars do you expect them to sell by 2026? 15 million a year? 20? You'd probably have to assume FSD working out, ATN working out + their energy and battery solutions working out as well to get there. I appreciate you taking the time to answer. I still fail to see any reasoning, any arguments for believing in these numbers, however. I know you don't like analyst estimates, but in my mind you need to have a very strong case to have this level of confidence that your numbers, which exceed the highest, most optimistic estimate I've found from any analyst so far, are much closer to the truth than theirs.
It’s super undervalued now. Like incredibly. WS FY ‘22 EPS estimate is $12.45. This will be beat btw, but let’s roll with it. At a $885 share price (what it is currently) that’s a P/E of 71. At 50% growth (rate I expect from 2022-2026), that’s a PEG of 1.42. Which is super low compared to other mega caps like aapl, amzn, etc. that have PEGs over 2. Once you realize that, Tesla should actually be somewhere in the range of $1,200-1,600 by end of ‘22 to account for a PEG more in line with other mega caps. $2,000 is completely reasonable by end of ‘23 or ‘24 as EPS should eclipse $20 in ‘23. Now, what’s reasonable and what will actually happen is a different story. That’s very macro dependent. It’s hard to make a case beyond 2026 without new factory announcements and stuff. So I’ll leave that be for now. But I’d imagine growth will slow to 30-40% after that. This is my base case. Bull case would be FSD working out. Hard to put a PT on that though. But it would be very high. Bear case would revolve around a bad macro environment and geopolitical issues (particularly in China) causing slowed growth. This is a big one due to Tesla relying on the Shanghai factory a lot. As Berlin and Austin ramp and new factories get created, this becomes less and less of a worry though. It’s the only way I see Tesla being less than $850 in 2 years.
Everything in my response is extremely relevant information about how FSD has advanced this past year. Your objection is that it's "not level 3", but you don't seem to be able to show me a definition of levels 2 and 3. So it sounds like you're the one not making meaningful statements lol. Maybe you posted this just before v10.69 comes out because you were getting nervous.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 it's not about who's "iN tHe LeAd," nor what arbitrary # version they're on, it's about nearly a decade of broken "FSD next year claims" by Musk. I also love how a year ago you were so confident they'd be on level 3, and are now moving the goalposts to say you don't know the distinction between levels when you can easily find definitions of what said levels are, and that Teslas are firmly in the level 2 camp. It's amazing that your head is somehow simultaneously so far up Musk's and your own ass that you're STILL like this over a year later. There was only one meaningful thing you said, "100k beta testers on the road right now." Your post should have started and ended there.
100k beta testers on the road right now. FSD version 10.69 in 8 days. FSD beta program still has zero injuries. The competition has not closed or even shortened Tesla's data lead over them. The FSD beta program has been advancing massively. If your objection is that they're "still level 2" you'll have to define what levels 2 and 3 are first, because I've yet to hear a concise definition.
>If you think I'm wrong, you can set a reminder to see how FSD is doing 1 year from now. - You're welcome to stop by just to say "I told you so". "I told you so" Tesla's perpetually stuck in second gear. Elon's been touting "next year" for how long now? Stop falling for it. Care to set a reminder for another year and see if they even make it to level 3 by then?
Rivian's biggest issue is they've always had such easy access to cash that they're the least lean company in possibly history. Their operating expenses are ~$4B a year, which is the same Tesla did in 2020 when they made 500K cars, while running an entire energy, solar and FSD business. It's also 57% of what Tesla is currently doing while making 1.5M cars a year. Rivian has a cool product and their ramp up is decent, but they've never had to learn how to be financially efficient and it's going to make it very difficult for them to become profitable. And to come back to your comparison with Lucid, they're "only" spending about $1.6B annually at the moment. Comparable to Tesla in 2015 when they were making only 50K cars.
And how many are looking forward? How many are necessary for proper depth perception? Elon isn't perfect. It's ok to acknowledge that he will make mistakes. Relying on vision only is absolutely one of those mistakes that will set FSD back years.
well then i give up on you being full of shit. > So it’s on the SUPPORT page for a website, which we all know everyone looks at, but isn’t on the advertisements. Its also on each model page. Elon tweets about it every week or so. Stop pretending people dont know its not BETA > Yeah there’s waaaaay more than 1 video though of teslas fucking up and hitting random shit when there’s no reason they should. ITS IN BETA and the trackers show its progressively getting better per miles driven. And miles driven with disengagements is better than Waymo or any other produce for FSD out there. > Even The DMV says Tesla is doing misleading advertising for their full self driving and purporting to be something it isn’t. https://archive.ph/BP3Vl 2 problems with that. They arent doing anything about it and they have been saying this for years now. Second problem is, other companies have autopilot that has the same issues as Teslas autopilot so you cant go after just tesla if that the case. So where is the lawsuits or NHTSA making Tesla change your claim of false advertising? Answer: THEY ARENT FALSE ADVERTISING Again you are full of shit and speaking fake news FUD. Start thinking like an investor instead of a conspiracy nutjob.
Lol, just turned out that was entirely staged and the Tesla didn't stop because they kept their foot on the accelerator pedal which overrides the FSD. You can tell from the message on the screen, which is probably why the footage is only 540p so you can't read it. It's exactly the right character length though, and the only warning message that's that long.
Some context: The story made headlines today, however, it turns out they didn't even have FSD activated for their test run. I put it together to poke fun at anti-tesla gang. If you follow the text in the video, it is stating that the TSLA AI was so advanced that it detected that it wasn't a real kid, and determined there wasn't going to be any damage to the car, so it didn't bother stopping.
you sign a terms and agreements that spells everything out. its even on the site. absolutely no one that buys FSD doesnt know its in beta. > when the cars still don’t stop for people, kids etc. and now youre spreading fake news. https://electrek.co/2022/08/10/tesla-self-driving-smear-campaign-releases-test-fails-fsd-never-engaged/ https://twitter.com/tesladriver2022/status/1557363740856778755?s=21&t=Gf1LPETx6SgsmIhzo_fn1Q
Yea, I tend agree. I've never tried testing running someone over but based on other experiences I think my M3 would alert at something like this and hit the brakes. I will say the idea that a proper city FSD using just cameras seems a little stupid. I don't have FSD enabled but autopilot seems really bad at estimating distance changes and speed decreases instantly using just the cameras. It the speed/distance changes are slow, no problem. But holy shit without forward radar (which is pretty standard in other cars with lane keeping/avoidance) you can see traffic stopped/slowed ahead and the M3 keeps charging until you're wondering if you want to trust it. It does stop but at it seems to go from "hell yeah, just cruising" to "oh shit hit the brakes" It's why I'm not optimistic that Tesla will be a player in top tier FSD on the timeline they think, especially at night and rain without coupling radar and lidar. Waymo has been doing excellent FSD in my area for many years. If Elon plugged Sergey's chick then Tesla might be boxed out of the tech if Waymo were to start licensing.
For context: There was a news item earlier today stating that Telsa failed the test and hit a child dummy. Turns out, they didn't even have the FSD activated during the test. I put this together when I saw the news in otder to poke fun at anti-tesla people, it's all meant to be in good humour.
Missing my point though... Not denying Tesla is overvalued, and even Elon knows as much. Why is he dumping shares? Because he thinks he is a loose cannon that will destroy the company? Because he thinks FSD is garbage that will kill people? Of course not. It's the irrational hatred for Elon himself that is bleeding into irrational hatred for the business itself.
Real in that it happened, but BS that it was FSD. It was 100% the driver forcing the car to hit it. Mine will beep loudly at me if something is in the road and will automatically apply the brakes to stop me from hitting something if I'm not intervening. The driver intentionally ignored or disabled those warnings and drove into the dummy. This demo is from this asshole, Dan O'Dowd, who is running for Senate and is conveniently also a CEO of a software company that sells self-driving software: Dan O'Dowd is President & CEO of Green Hills Software: https://ghs.com/corporate/management_team.html They are trying to sell self-driving software for cars: https://www.ghs.com/products/auto_solutions.html
Not a genius. Good at recognizing promising developments and buying into paying for them to be developed. But hardly batting above .500 on that. And he had to learn that the hard way. He got muscled out of Paypal and has acted like a goon ever since. And even his successes are cracking. Tesla is being sued by government for overstating the capabilities of FSD, the car designs are getting old and busted and were never great quality, and they are getting waxed by competitors who are good at building better or cheaper stuff. SpaceX has lost all tempo on Starship, which is risking Starlink deployment schedules.
FSD does exist and can make 1000+ mile trips even without interventions in many cases. is it level 5 autonomy yet? No. that will come someday. (If you issue is just with the “name” then that’s your own issue to deal with) Might not even be Tesla to achieve it first. But they have the largest database of miles driven for the edge cases and most likely to achieve first to date. Hyperloop was also NEVER something Tesla or Elon was going to pursue at first. he proposed this idea for other companies to run with, the white paper, space x made the test track for other to play with and held competitions. Creating an environment for innovation Even giving everything out in open source to allow anyone to participate. cyber truck is obviously coming. Giga texas just went online, and with model y being a best selling vehicle it makes complete sense to put supplies towards that first while production of cybertruck is tuned out.
$TSLA catalysts 1/ 3:1 Stock split Aug 2/ S&P upgrades debt Aug 3/ TWTR deal overhang lifts Aug 4/ EV credit Aug 5/ AI Day II Sept 6/ New gigas (UK, East NA) 4Q 7/ FSD beta release 4Q 8/ Semi realese 500m range 9/ Cytruck launch FY’23 10/ M-$30K/Robotaxi FY’24 $1300-1500 eoy
Currently at a 2million+ vehicle run rate, technology that continues to improve margins (eg single castings), technology that further widens the gap from (eg 4680 batteries and FSD), incredible sales pipeline (6-12 months of production), practically no debt, nearly $20billion in cash, debt upgrades, EV credit bill in 2023… the list goes on and on.
I have a feeling that Elon made this sale in response to California DMV opening a case against Tesla for calling their software FSD. They will make Tesla drop the name. The meme-master is already running out of new ideas. Plus looks like Parag is in the mood to sell Twitter and none of Elon's financiers (like Marc Andreesen) are having a good time with their VC funds down big. The only suckers Elon has left are retail buyers and he is doing everything he can to keep the HOPE up. The AI day 2 is just around the corner. I think Elon is going to dress himself up as robot this time and dance. Not to mention, Hyundai and Kia are already killing it with their new cars, at least design wise right now. I hope they figure out battery efficiency so we have more competition in the market. I want an EV but dont want to buy the egg-ish M3 or any of Tesla cars. I still don't get how are people paying $70k for one of the ugliest car ever made - M3. Design is subjective I guess.
TSLA bulls: >Actchyually Elon selling is incredibly bullish because he plans on using the proceeds to open the first supercharger network on Mars that is staffed by humanoid Tesla robots running their own special version 69.420 of FSD superware that uses Spacex satellite flux capacitors to send Tony Stark into orbit while Thor drives a Cybertruck around with his hammer. New price target: $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000 / share
LMAO Muskrat knew the Tesla FSD smashing into children like bowling pins article was coming out because journalists contacted TSLA for comment while working on the story. Dumped billions of dollars in shares on the cultists.
TSLA bulls: >Acktchually Tesla's FSD is so advanced it can be programmed to hunt down and destroy children which is very impressively displayed in that video. This new feature is being developed for the $100b Congolese market and no other legacy automaker is anywhere close to Tesla in terms of child killing capability. This incredible new innovation will easily add between $50b and $100 million gagillion to the market cap. Gawd Elon is such a geenyus.
Trump got raided an hour ago, BBBY up 20% after hours, UPST got halted before earnings, Trump playing oblivious victim after raid, Tesla passed FSD Beta a few minutes ago, futures green as fuck, AMC & GME both got halted this morning, Beyoncé’s album only did 300k first week, Ezra Miller arrested about 4 hours ago (yes again🙄), Ryan Reynolds’s is partnering with FUBO, Olivia Newton John died today, a new season of the bachelorette is airing tonight on ABC, Also SPY 420 LFG!!
For all the autists and retards in here, Tesla’s cash flow is going to be batshit insane VERY soon. This has nothing to do with competition, Biden hating Elon, Twitter, FSD or some other BS bear talking point. Leave your bear argument in your mother’s basement. Just look at numbers and buy the dip.
> Tesla has basically no QoQ growth since 3 quarters. Lol wut...? Tesla Q1 2022 was was higher than Q4 2021, despite almost 10 days of shutdown in Q1 in China and Q4 having more days. Q4 2021 was WAY higher than Q3 2021. Q2 2022 would've been WAY higher than Q1 2022 if not for the lockdown in China. All of this becomes even more obvious when you exclude one-time occurrences and just look at monthly/weekly/daily production numbers. Weekly production in Shanghai in Q3 2021 was 10K. Right now it's around 20K. That's 100% growth YoY in just one of their factories. On top of that they've got two factories coming online that are each larger than their two current factories combined... > Their sales are declining in Europe in July. Why would you cherry pick like this...? :') Almost all sales in Europe are still coming from Shanghai, and the last month of a quarter is where they focus on local deliveries instead of exports. So of course that number is going to be lower. It has been for years. > Additionally their cars are very expensive. Not everyone is able to buy one. Even if they grow in 2023, they won't in 2024 unless they introduce a much cheaper modell. There's no way you can know this. Last 18 months their cars increased in price by ~20% and the demand went up. Demand scales exponentially with lower supply and to a lesser degree with waiting times, so if they decrease prices and/or waiting times come down, demand will increase by a huge amount. It'll be years before they can meet the Model 3/Y demand. > Furthermore the competition is finally here after 5 years. Hahahaha, let's agree to disagree on this one... :') > Good that you pay attention to the company. Yes lots of companies get probed, but funnily enough Tesla seems to not try to quickly resolve them (as many of the investigations are still going on). > https://www.motortrend.com/news/nhtsa-tesla-autopilot-investigation-shutoff-crash/https://electrek.co/2022/03/16/tesla-employee-fired-sharing-video-crash-full-self-driving-beta/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html None of these have anything to do with FSD Beta, and the speed is largely dependant on NHTSA, not Tesla. > Apple's functionally is provided by the app store. A pickup truck will not appeal to a french driver in Paris and neither will the hatchback appeal to a US construction worker. The construction of the car provides the functionality. Fewer models means fewer appeal to a broader market. Well no, but the cybertruck will appeal to the construction worker and the hatchback will appeal to the French driver in Paris. You just need one superior product in each mainstream category, which is what Tesla is working towards... > Now you are just messing with me. If Tesla put the factory development cost into R&D instead of capex like every other company, you should instantly run as there are probably endless other accounting shenanigans running on. New products and improving them = R&D. New factories = capex. If you have a new research lab you can capitalize it into R&D - but new factories are capex. But why let accounting come into the way of a good story? Ehm no, their new factories are full of new machines and technologies that need to be tested and approved. There's nothing strange about putting that under R&D when they're not selling products from those facilities yet, lots of people do it. > Tesla has reduced R&D. Why don't you just open their earnings report then? Instead of casually stating things that aren't true... > If they sell 10m cars in 2027, they won't grow anymore. Where is that written? > $108B in net income. Using the NPV, with 3.23% risk free rate would be worth $92b today. At a PE of 10, the company thus would be valued fairly today. So in the biggest bull case ever, you basically get no return for 5 years. If their margins would compress, or their growth slows. That valuation explodes. Well no, you would still get that 3.23% return. Other then that yes, you're right if they'd stop growing at that point you'd be right. But that's not gonna happen. > Companies adjust much faster now. Others like FTX already have much lower fees and looking at the latest quarterly earnings - Coinbase is already losing transaction volume and users. I disagree companies adjust faster, especially for large and traditional companies like financial institutions. And no, Coinbase is not losing users. It's not increasing as fast as it was during the explosive crypto bull market, but it's still growing. > With both Tesla and Palantir the risk that it will go down a lot is still there. If Tesla's growth stalls they could easily see their valuation cut by 80% and still have a higher value than most of their competitors. Yeah, I'm not even gonna get into these reasonings by analogy anymore. If you don't want to drop that kind of thinking, there's no point discussing these nonsensical arguments. > Please prove with numbers, reasonable assessments with competitors and the ongoing share dilution how Palantir's valuation is justified. This is a fair question (although asking about the competitors when there is no other company in a position like PLTR is again asking for reasoning by analogy that will not prove anything), but it will take a bit more time to get back on this. I know their annual dilution is currently about 10% and dropping by about 2% (absolute) per year. As for the valuation, I would have to find out if I could separate the revenue/operating income from Gotham from Foundry, and value them as two separate companies. If there's any way to figure that out, that's actually a really great exercise to do that I haven't done yet. I'll get back to you on that. > You seem to only concentrate on the story, not on facts that are here. In fact you seem to ignore them. Funny, that's exactly how I feel about you. I keep bringing data and facts, and you brush them aside or use reasoning by analogy, cherry picked data or anecdotal evidence to counter it.
>It's difficult to keep reading on after this nonsense. Tesla has been growing faster than any company this size ever in history, how can you say they're having trouble ramping up? The only trouble they've had was the Chinese government shutting down their factory, which they could do nothing about. And since reopening it, they've increased their installed capacity to be at 1.2M cars a year. Just from their 2nd smallest factory they could produce more cars in a year than they did from all their factories in 2021. How can you say you'd be amazed if they'd grow in 2023? Even if they stopped ramping their factories right now, they'd grow in 2023 compared to 2022. Realistically, they'll be delivering between 2 and 3 million cars in 2023. A 2-3x over two years... Tesla has basically no QoQ growth since 3 quarters. Their sales are declining in Europe in July. They shut down Berlin for "optimizing it" (since when do you do that for a new factory). Additionally their cars are very expensive. Not everyone is able to buy one. Even if they grow in 2023, they won't in 2024 unless they introduce a much cheaper modell. Furthermore the competition is finally here after 5 years. > As for deactivating FSD before accidents, that's some conspiracy level shit. Also being probed for something doesn't mean you've done it. Car companies get probed lots of stuff that didn't actually happen. That's why it's called a probe. Good that you pay attention to the company. Yes lots of companies get probed, but funnily enough Tesla seems to not try to quickly resolve them (as many of the investigations are still going on). https://www.motortrend.com/news/nhtsa-tesla-autopilot-investigation-shutoff-crash/ https://electrek.co/2022/03/16/tesla-employee-fired-sharing-video-crash-full-self-driving-beta/ [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html) ​ >Nonsense. Apple has very few and incredibly expensive phones and they appeal to the broader market Apple's functionally is provided by the app store. A pickup truck will not appeal to a french driver in Paris and neither will the hatchback appeal to a US construction worker. The construction of the car provides the functionality. Fewer models means fewer appeal to a broader market. ​ >I think you misread their quarterly reports. Tesla is increasing R&D. The only reason it seemed to lower from Q1 to Q2 is because they started production in Giga Berlin and Texas, so some of their factory development costs moved from R&D to operational expenses. Now you are just messing with me. Tesla has reduced R&D. If Tesla put the factory development cost into R&D instead of capex like every other company, you should instantly run as there are probably endless other accounting shenanigans running on. New products and improving them = R&D. New factories = capex. If you have a new research lab you can capitalize it into R&D - but new factories are capex. But why let accounting come into the way of a good story? ​ >Doing the math, that adds up to $108B in net income. So even if their growth would drop to 10% by 2027, with those ASPs, margins and sales volumes, they'd be at a higher valuation than today with a fair PEG ratio of 1. If they sell 10m cars in 2027, they won't grow anymore. They took a huge chunk of market share away from VW, Toyota an other car makers. $108B in net income. Using the NPV, with 3.23% risk free rate would be worth $92b today. At a PE of 10, the company thus would be valued fairly today. So in the biggest bull case ever, you basically get no return for 5 years. If their margins would compress, or their growth slows. That valuation explodes. ​ >Perhaps in 100 years crypto brokers will also only have \~0.25% AUM (if it isn't completely decentralised by then), but it will take a while to get there. Companies adjust much faster now. Others like FTX already have much lower fees and looking at the latest quarterly earnings - Coinbase is already losing transaction volume and users. ​ >I think we can agree that when someone is talking about a "risky stock", they are generally talking about the risk it will go down significantly, not the risk that it might not return much. With both Tesla and Palantir the risk that it will go down a lot is still there. If Tesla's growth stalls they could easily see their valuation cut by 80% and still have a higher value than most of their competitors. ​ >Again, really strange reasoning by analogy. You simply can't compare two companies that couldn't be any more different and make conclusions based on one or two metrics. It makes no sense. Please prove with numbers, reasonable assessments with competitors and the ongoing share dilution how Palantir's valuation is justified. You seem to only concentrate on the story, not on facts that are here. In fact you seem to ignore them.
> Of course it means something. If you are valued as tho you would have twice the ASP, twice the margins and twice the valuation of Toyota and selling 10m cars, you need to deliver. Tesla is cutting R&D spending and have trouble ramping up. their new factory. I would be amazed if they can actually grow in 2023. It's difficult to keep reading on after this nonsense. Tesla has been growing faster than any company this size ever in history, how can you say they're having trouble ramping up? The only trouble they've had was the Chinese government shutting down their factory, which they could do nothing about. And since reopening it, they've increased their installed capacity to be at 1.2M cars a year. Just from their 2nd smallest factory they could produce more cars in a year than they did from all their factories in 2021. How can you say you'd be amazed if they'd grow in 2023? Even if they stopped ramping their factories right now, they'd grow in 2023 compared to 2022. Realistically, they'll be delivering between 2 and 3 million cars in 2023. A 2-3x over two years... > There are quite a few accidents and they are probed for deactivated FSD just before accidents on purpose. Tesla does not disclose their FSD data in contrast to other companies. The fact that they don't do this, should be telling enough. There have been no accidents with FSD Beta as far as I'm aware. Please show me the evidence that there has been. And note that FSD =/= FSD Beta. As for deactivating FSD before accidents, that's some conspiracy level shit. Also being probed for something doesn't mean you've done it. Car companies get probed lots of stuff that didn't actually happen. That's why it's called a probe. > First if it increased 50% every 10 years, US GDP would be at 34.5T with 23T today, not 40-50T. Additionally Apples market cap is pretty much 11% of GDP. So yes, if you had a 10T company with 34.5T GDP you would need hyperinflation. You're right, I meant 30-40T. Apple's market cap might be 11% today, but it has been around 14% in the past. And no, just because something is unprecedented doesn't mean you need hyperinflation to cause it. You could've made the same argument to "prove" Apple could never be 3T in 2020 a decade ago, yet here we are. Again, reasoning by analogy doesn't get you anywhere except to incorrect conclusions. > No it is not. Tesla's margin are mainly for having fewer models (less appeal to broader market) Nonsense. Apple has very few and incredibly expensive phones and they appeal to the broader market > And cutting R&D. I think you misread their quarterly reports. Tesla is increasing R&D. The only reason it seemed to lower from Q1 to Q2 is because they started production in Giga Berlin and Texas, so some of their factory development costs moved from R&D to operational expenses. > As I said calculate the market cap using 10m cars and twice the ASP of Toyota (27k), twice the margin and twice the valuation if Tesla would sell those in 2027. Doing the math, that adds up to $108B in net income. So even if their growth would drop to 10% by 2027, with those ASPs, margins and sales volumes, they'd be at a higher valuation than today with a fair PEG ratio of 1. > Right, but even Charles Schwab has 0.25% on AUM with all their services as revenues. So unless Crypto more than 100x (keep in mind that coinbase is mostly US), there is no way that they get to that AUM. This seems to be a recurring theme, but again this is very odd reasoning by analogy. The regular financial markets have been around for hundreds of years. Perhaps in 100 years crypto brokers will also o