Reddit Posts
Carvana($CVNA) - At what price point do you become bullish?
Happy News, Today Got My 2nd 50 Bagger Ever, and How Buying the Most Undervalued or Best Risk/Reward Stocks Can Give You a Big Edge
Meredith Corporation (MDP) Selling Local Media Group to Gray Television (GTN) for $2,7B
Extensive research into Gray Television ($GTN) (Full research in comments)
Gray Television plans to buy Doraville's Assembly, create film and entertainment hub
Mentions
To say insurer doesn't set price is beyond ignorant in this space. Insurance companies do not in fact pay $300k/year for Onureg. Let's talk Onureg. In 2023 they had 34 mil in sales, at roughly 220k customers (max based on avg domestic market). That's $154k/customer annually. According to 2023 SEC filing, rebates/discounts/medicaid/etc (GTN) represented 36% of total drug portfolio. That's actually low. Typical rebate, as I mentioned in my other post for onco is higher, but let's play 36%. That's total revenue of $100k/year/patient. I'm showing you this to demonstrate, that your logic of manufacturer driving end price is flawed. Now, we are adding a new drug into existing market. Think basic, like GLP1, when it entered market, where every list price was over $1k and now avg cost is 83-144. You need to understand, that "payer" will only carry what they can, until it's no longer financially feasible. Once multiple products on a market exist, median survival is less important than negotiated cost that will drive risk for insurance. And no, 200k+ patients aren't buying this at even a $100k/year out of pocket.
Trump shat on the sector today with his tweet about 39% ownership which is contradicting his administration saying they would deregulate and allow more consolidation, then mid day SBGI made an official offer to SSP and popped the sector. It’s a strange one, GTN has 500m mkt cap approximately at almost 6.5b enterprise value. Like I said, trash sector but I’m in it for M&A and worst case the next spectrum auction where they can sell assets for billions again like last time.
GTN, EVC and SBGI. Huge dividends, garbage sector but Congress is in in the works of giving the FCC back their rights to auction spectrum. SSP already looks like SBGI taking over. Once FCC regains control of spectrum auctions, their assets will be worth billions on the books again as with last spectrum auction. Their spectrum will be repackaged and used as 5G. In the meantime, I’m locked into 7-12% dividends for the next couple of years. Stress free investing
# Introducing the "Someone knows something" a.k.a. the "SEC Whistleblower" list Finally, my scanner for massive accumulation is complete and ready to use. The SEC has been known to monitor unusual trades and fine people who might have traded on non-public information. This is a scanner that does that based on scientific research. During testing, this scanner identified RGLS and WRD as accumulated on no news, and both stocks exploded in price after significant news announcements. WRD has some more upside even after the major move, so it remains interesting because it has been beaten down a lot recently. Yesterday, the following stocks fit the criteria: 1. GNL - earnings today 2. SEZL - too late now, conference call today, potential for a continuation trade 3. EOLS - earnings today 4. GLPG - SpinCo Separation by Mid-2025 5. TREE - no near term events, recent drop 6. ARWR - no near term events 7. GTN - earnings on May 8 I will be making trades in some of these stocks with small amounts, so stay tuned for the trade details and mechanics. Good luck to all, cheers!
Looks like this thread was deleted? Can’t find it in my saved list anymore. I added some cheap lottos for GTN and GNL, but apparently should have gone all in on EOLS. The $12.5 call for 5/16 exploded in value after this post. Hopefully the others have some good activity post-earnings.
the entire sector is moving . GTN is up nice . SSP has one analyst price tgt of 7 so hoping we get a stronger move yet
valid concern for sure .I did a little research on that very topic amd they are leveraging streaming options now. for that matter, so are GTN ,,PARA and WBD etc. NFLX showed them how to make money, and now all are rushing to copy Netflix
CPS is +31% ytd BABA is +56% ytd GTN is +40%
Put it all on black! Those kind of gains are extremely hard to predict. I’m calling gray media (GTN) going up 5% today tho.
GTN got a lot of room to grow
Ok, I'm applying some Warren Buffett style balance sheet analysis to all of these. I looked at the 2023 numbers and put in the work so that you don't have to: Cash vs. Debt: OABI, SUP, [GFP.TO](http://GFP.TO), DATA.L, MEIP, and III all have more cash or cash equivalents than debt. Debt to Equity ratio: OABI, [GFP.TO](http://GFP.TO) were the only two to pass this with less debt than equity. In fairness, many large companies (KO comes to mind) also fail this metric. DATA.L kind of epically failed this metric, though - 7.517 - yikes! Preferred stock: OABI, PNG.V, [GFP.TO](http://GFP.TO), DATA.L, MEIP, III, and GCI all passed this benchmark by having 0 preferred stock. Retained Earning Growth (I looked at the last two years. Any negative values in the current year resulted in a negative number regardless of negative status of previous year to stay consistent with Buffett's rule of never considering a company with negative RE): DATA.L was the only company with positive RE. Treasury stock: GTN, DATA.L, III, and GCI all had positive treasury stock (a good proxy for buybacks). Conclusion: None of the recommendations have balance sheets that point to growth *and* company health at a fair P/E. DATA.L gets the closest, but with a pretty dismal debt-to-equity ratio (very high P/E), maybe slightly offset by a comfortable cash-to-debt ratio.
I’m swinging SOFI, BYND, GTN and MGNI. All pinned down small caps whose charts look like they are coiled and ready to pop to the upside. Praying that the rotation to small caps is real. 🛐
Short GTN - high debt, and the presumptive Republican nominee may need to divert money normally spent on political ads to legal fees
• GTN -19% • SKYW +167% • KD +141% • CNDT +7% • GCI +64% • CVNA +1000% Every single stock in the market is a buy at the right price. Especially the companies performing poorly.
Gonna add some GTN and TGNA leaps since my shitty 20$ TGNA call might not come through. Gotta double down on that degen shit
I will tell you because i do not care one bit. I am an open book. But know this. You either follow the crowd or think for yourself. Following the crowd is going to destroy you. Investing is hard work. If you arent willing to do the work i suggest getting out. I am long MAMA LAD LMB OPRT INMD GTN ACI MPVD PSCV LIFD
KD, GTN, CPS, and OSTK all beat and rallied for me. Not growth picks tho.
CPS WBD TUP and GTN all had solid weeks for me
Im almost done exclusively in small/mid cap deep value cigar butts. I usually have 1-2 of my holdings go bankrupt every year or so. Most recently, $PRTY. $TUP is a position I opened in March 2023 that could absolutely go bankrupt. Holding a number of very distressed companies right now but had some really big winners recently too. To name a few CVNA(position closed), CPS, KD, GTN, GRPN, TUP, BODY, QRTEA, TCS.
I made 35$ On GTN 10 calls to expire in February.
Watching $CD, $EC, $GTN, $MOMO, and $SUZ
I think $GTN and $JXN are two of the better priced companies available right now. GTN is one of Klarman’s deep value picks. JXN is one of Bill Miller’s value picks. Klarman and Miller don’t get everything right, but the risk/reward premium on these two is juicy.
Here’s a couple deeeeeeep value plays for you to check out. All are 1-4 year plays. - GTN - SKYW - KD - CNDT - GCI
Invest in GTN instead. It's such an undervalued perfect stock.
GTN - local news station lots of exposure to politely advertising
Happy news. And news that shows what can happen when you value invest or go for high risk/reward situations. I bot more Petrus (Canada nanocap oil company) when it crashed to almost nothing. Today alone it 4 bagged on my low buys at .05. The stock low was .04, today it is 2.65. That is a 66 bagger from low and a 52 bagger on my low buy. Only 2nd time in my life have got a 50 bagger and it only took 2 years :-) My 60 bagger on GTN took 4 years. When I look at my accounts after having sold most of it for huge profits, so have negative real cost, it amazes me that my $5-7K cost to buy what I have left is today worth $200,000. Seat cushion change to real money. And I think it can make $9 which would be 180 bagger for me and over 200 bagger from its bottom 2 years ago. AND today it is under 2 PE, its profit yield is over 50% per dollar you invest, it is dirt cheap today after 2 year 66 bagger! Others here likely have happy stories about oil/gas stocks in last 2 years too. Cheers
Hi ProBag, I have not experienced that in over 20 years of investing. Even on some stocks that do not trade for an hour sometimes. The term penny stocks often means less than $1. I have bot stocks for under $.01. What really counts is the market cap, how much is the entire company worth because that is what you are buying, a part of a company. I have got my best gains on stocks under $100 million mkt cap. GTN bot at $14 mill mkt cap at .17, sold it for over $12 for a 60 bagger a few years later it was heading for a billion mkt cap and made it, doing a 100 bagger before it stopped.
You’re in some random af stuff for the size here. GTN? Cut the odds ones that aren’t staples and get an index fun or two. You have a few to hold.
"Old" media (NXST, GTN) trading around 6 times 2022 earnings, making money hand over fist by means of political ads and licensing. Regional and community banks. Many trading cheaply. If interest rates continue to rise profits will rise. Having had a big run does not make something expensive. Having had a big drop does not make something cheap.
Would all of this affect news media as well? I have noticed relative strength from some "old" media names including NXST FOXA GTN
Gray Television. My logic has been that with the shitshow of 2016 and 2020 elections, 2024 is going to be massive. Local news is going to be more important than ever as online outlets are perceived as less trustworthy. I'm sticking with GTN until 2024.
Hey thanks for this, I always appreciate it when someone goes through my work thoroughly. I agree, the company is in a good position, but the industry isn't. This isn't my most in depth analysis, but I did go over their last 10k revently in detail. They don't have any public plans for the future that make me think they are planning to transition into a new industry, but financially they have the ability to diversify their business and really add some shareholder value. My risk tolerance dictates that I have to be sure there is some potential for future success, and I cannot conclude that with $GTN. ​ That being said, most companies that are extremely successful go through similar situations and then branch out to capitalize on new industry or restructure operations. $GTN could be one of these but I have no way of knowing.
Wow, great write-up. I totally see what you mean with not really too much potential for future growth. Though, I do believe they are undervalued. With that being said, I think $GTN is a good 1-2 year hold. They will continue to grow with the contracts they have in place now, they are a healthy company just in a dying market. Who knows, they could continue to have great success over the next 5-10 years. I truly think the issue here is the industry they are in and not the company itself. Who knows, this industry could progress with the internet over the next decade and plant a new seed in a developing industry.
GTN - Great financials with stations mainly in republican areas. Political ad spending will only continue to rise as America heads toward the 2nd Civil War.
Just did this. Gray Television GTN. Looks strong but it went up a lot today so I'm nervous.
No idea what's going on with GTN, but I did see the rumored 'g*mma sq**ze on UMWC - whenever a spooky super special date for activity is forecast, just buy a month later - good god people
My biggest positions are HMC, ASX, TROX, APAM and GTN
Holy fuck what happened with GTN
GTN blasting off and still so much room to go
This stock only made money the last 4 years because people were glued to their TVs watching the shitshow that was American politics. Take a look at earnings and revenues, and valuations of pretty much every single broadcasting firm there is (VIAC, GTN, SGBI, NXST, FOX, etc.) why do you think all of their valuations are sitting at <10 PE? Probably because the general market doesn’t expect the ridiculously high earnings that they’ve all made the last 4 years to continue. As a non-American, I could care less anymore about American politics because it’s become a ginormous bore.
Recently put GTN on my radar as well. Good market share in rural America where I think Netflix, Hulu etc. can’t penetrate easily. So I expect local business advertising revenue to come in. Gray being market leader there should have considerable pricing power. Fairly okay long term debt which I think can be paid off as the Advt revenues pick up. What’s your thesis?
I sold almost all of my "growth" stocks today (ie: speculative plays with yet unprofitable balance sheets). Now I'm just holding onto some oil plays, GTN, and a couple penny plays with rising revenues that I have stubbornly held onto for too long because I believe they are on the road to profitability, dilution non-withstanding. So we're probably getting close to capitulation then...
My pops is an old school investor and we sometimes trade stock suggestions. We want to know what anyone thinks of these semiconductor related stocks AMKR, GTN, CNQ, FRTA, RBBN, QRHC If this is against WSB rules sorry, I don't know what the fuck im doing I Hodl 10 GME and other small amounts of shit. I ape bigtime
GRAY is the ticker? Or GTN (Gray Television)? Cause one looks way better than the other
What's the story with GTN? I like Casper's ads.
I don't expect the sell off to end soon, but I am going to keep buying and holding stocks that produce decent revenues with decent P/E ratios. Yesterday I started positions in TROX and GTN. I also like what I see so far looking at CSPR (Casper). They have been edging toward profitability and their mattresses are highly rated. I'm about to order one myself.
Media is a pretty appealing play. VIAC is my biggest stock by equity and it’s been red hot after the 2020 drop off. Lions gate is a media/film company I’ve had my eyes on recently as well. Haven’t really heard much of GTN, though. The two grocer stocks do seem pretty ripe also. I’ve considered Kroger in the past but never pulled the trigger. Haven’t considered ingles. Might track it and see if a decent pull back happens
Media broadcasting is spitting off cash flow right now and the sector has been too cheap for years. My largest position is $GTN at a little over half my portfolio. Banks. They'll stay cheap for a long time. $BAC is my play. Grocers. Extra stimulus money won't go to grocery stores. They'll go to spending it on other people cooking for them. They're consistent with gross margins and have reliable demand. $IMKTA is my newest position personally but $KR is also cheap too.