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HITI (NASDAQ): a winning long-term choice, let's analyze it.
HITI (NASDAQ): a winning long-term choice, let's analyze it.
Some thoughts on current and future valuation on HITI NASDAQ
Some thoughts on current and future valuation on HITI NASDAQ
Some thoughts on current and future valuation on HITI NASDAQ
Why I am bullish on HITI NASDAQ at the current valuation
Some thoughts on current and future valuation on HITI NASDAQ
Another record quarter for High Tide inc
HITI ( High Tide) Growth Is Accelerating Again (+30% YoY) While Profitability Hits New Highs
High Tide to Open Two New Canna Cabana Locations in Welland and Calgary
My largest position by far is HITI , one of the most underfollowed names I've ever seen. Here are 6 reasons why you should BUY it and HOLD for the long term
My largest position by far is $HITI , one of the most underfollowed names I've ever seen. Here are 6 reasons why you should BUY it and HOLD for the long term
$HITI Bullish crossover on the 1W HMA
HITI: NASDAQ A Hidden Gem in Its Sector
Forget SNDL: HITI is a Significantly Better Cannabis Stock
HITI: NASDAQ A Hidden Gem in Its Sector
HITI: NASDAQ A Hidden Gem in Its Sector
TRUMP RECLASSIFIES MARIJUANA TO SCHEDULE III TOMORROW (Axios) $LUFFF/ HERB.CN is the VETERANS PLAY here + massive buyout potential also huge buys $HITI $LOVE
HITI: High Tide inc Reports Strong 1st Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Maintains Solid Growth Outlook
HITI: High Tide inc Reports Strong 1st Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Maintains Solid Growth Outlook
$LUFFF/$HERB.CN and $HITI: Riding the German Cannabis Boom Wave & Why These Penny Plays Could Explode!
$HERB and $HITI: Riding the German Cannabis Boom Wave and Why These Penny Plays Could Explode!
High Tide Inc (HITI): Inside the Costco of Cannabis (Micro Cap Club)
Analysis of recent and future developments of High Tide Inc
Schwab Not Allowing Electronic Orders of Some Weedstock
$HITI , a long-term winning choice, called "The Costco of cannabis"
Which companies does everyone think will do best with the up an coming cannabis Export Boom?
TLRY is something to monitor.
Poor person's this week's option trading. RGTI $8..$0 ( -100%), HITI $3...$5(66%),Flux $10...$35(250%), EPM $40...$50(25%), CCL$15...$21(40%). Net gain $43 ( 57 %)
Full Zacks Small-Cap Research Analyst Report on High Tide $HITI
($SNDL owns 5.4% of $HITI Shares).... Record-Breaking Quarter: $HITI Hits $600M Annual Run Rate with 207 Stores and 7.4% Growth
New High Tide inc analyst and report with Buy Rating 6$ US P.T ( NASDAQ: HITI ) In Deep Dive
New High Tide inc analyst and report with Buy Rating 6$ US P.T ( NASDAQ: HITI )
New High Tide inc analyst and report with Buy Rating 6$ US P.T ( NASDAQ: HITI )
New High Tide inc analyst and report with Buy Rating 6$ US P.T ( NASDAQ: HITI )
High Tide Inc. $HITI is taking its cannabis playbook to Germany
High Tide Announces Preliminary Q3 2025 Guidance
$HITI Ventum Update for High Tide after the $30 million Cronos deal. Buy recommendation and $8.50 target price
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( $HITI : Nasdaq)
Research and detailed analysis on High Tide inc ( HITI : Nasdaq)
Ventum Financial Maintained Strong BUY recommendation and $8.50 target price $HITI High Tide inc
Ventum Financial Maintained Strong BUY recommendation and $8.50 target price $HITI High Tide inc
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
In-depth research of High Tide inc (Nasdaq HITI) Strong Buy recommendation
I’ve put all my life savings into HITI
I put all my life savings into High Tide (HITI)
Amazing ER HITI Hightide rips it up again!
$HITI , the most undervalued company in its sector and the best performing
$HITI , the most undervalued company in its sector and the best performing
$HITI , the most undervalued company in its sector and the best performing
$HITI , the most undervalued company in its sector and the best performing
This European Country Is Expected To Have Millions Of Medical Marijuana Patients, Say Experts - High Tide (NASDAQ:HITI)
High Tide Recaps Key Milestones of 2023
High Tide Recaps Key Milestones of 2023
High Tide Recaps Key Milestones of 2023
High Tide HITI looks extremely bullish!
$HITI High Tide: From Start-up to Empire | Raj Grover | The Dales Report
HITI stock has massive upside, Echelon says
Is it time to unload HITI? Or just the beginning?
i want to get back into trading and im looking at 3 stocks
Winning In Canadian Cannabis: High Tide | Echelon Capital Markets ($HITI is will be the winner in the long run! )
Mississauga considering lifting cannabis store ban. Interview with HITI’s Omar Khan
Good morning, Don't we all love to get a little high?
Canada's Top CEO Raj Grover Talks Cannabis And Future Of Retail: Here's How To Meet Him In Person - High Tide (NASDAQ:HITI)
High Tide CEO: 2023 Expectations, Why US Strategy Does NOT Hinge On Cannabis Legalization - High Tide (NASDAQ:HITI)
Mentions
Give it 10 years. Here's my prediction: Most MSOs fail to compete in a post interstate commerce, post specialization world. They were used to state by state protections which gave them comfortable margins and made them lazy. HITI, already battle tested in Canada has perfected a model which thrives with only 10% EBITDA margins. Nobody can compete with their scale and efficiency as they are laser focussed on retail expansion and offer prices comparable to the black market. Alternatively some states offer cannabis products in convenience stores etc, making specialty cannabis stores obsolete. MSOs are trapped, but HITI has 250+ stores in Canada and an international export business anchoring it's financials. Today's production assets become unfeasible in the US as the global market expands. Product is flooding in from Thailand and South America , and few US growers can compete in their current structure. MSOs are forced to sell off expensive state-by-state production assets for a fraction of what they paid to build. HITI never got involved in production, so they keep chugging along, opening 20-30 stores per year, and running their global import/export business without a hitch.
I bought a thousand shares this morning of HITI @ 2.71 it’s up to 2.78 solid penny stock projection over 7 low end 4
HITI. Price is almost completely based on revenue, just got into the German market and is expanding international, and also holds some of the largest retail shares in Canada owning 12% of the market. If any dispensary is going to make it in Canada, HITI is a massive player and has had great upward momentum. Plus the leadership is constantly thinking about the stock.
Let's go HITI. 3 USD next stop
HITI who focussed internationally and has waited for US clarity to enter are looking pretty smart. The opportunity will be theirs for the taking when the time is right and in the meantime they are outgrowing all MSOs on a % basis, continue gaining share and influence in Europe, and can list on the Nasdaq.
HITI - Looks like a coiled spring.
Sold most of my Auxly today. Taking profits always feels great esp in this sector. Onto my next trade ACB and OGI while HITI continues to cook. Glta
HITI is slowly heading up to form a new base and I am contemplating taking profits or wait for it to peak a bit more. Btw anyone who bought it at it's 52 week lows is up 40% already. Glta
You make a fair point about HITI and VFF. They are both incredibly well-run, and I'd throw OGI into the mix as that same tier of solid Canadian operators. But we are looking at two completely different investment lanes. While those companies are smart plays for domestic Canadian execution, they lack the global infrastructure and massive beverage network that Tilray has built. I can agree on the overpaid assets during the 2018–2021 bubble, but hindsight and all that... everyone overpaid back then. TLRY cleaned up their balance sheet, took the hit, and actually secured their infrastructure for the long term.
Frankly there is no good way to lose $2B. If it's a write down then they overpaid significantly for assets that are also cash flow negative. That's great regarding your theory. I just don't think it will make a dent in TLRYs problems. The bottom line has a lot of catching up to do. You should take that enthusiasm for cannabis stocks and apply it to a better company. HITI is an increasingly interesting global retailer and importer at a very fair valuation. If you prefer cultivators look at VFF. Both have long histories of positive FCF and earnings, along with talented and driven management teams.
As far as I can tell, the derivative liability is a dcf model of the current value of something that will not be paid until some point in the future. with a steep discount rate, a mismatch between trailing ebitda and future ebitda projections can screw with the valuation. Honestly all i get from this is that the derivative does not actually help an investor very much with the valuation of the company. It is a... bad... estimate about how much money HITI will have to pay a year from now in today's HITI purchasing power. I am not sure under what circumstance the derivative liability is actually helpful to company valuation. Its trying to say what Raj has previously stated, that when remexian does well HITI will have to pay more to acquire the company. But volatility in ebitda which remexian certainly has encountered screws with this metric. This number swinging -$8m to $8m does not reflect the projected strength of the remexian business come September 2 2027. Unhelpful to say the least. I guess my conclusion in all this is that an investor is better served ignoring the valuation changes of the derivative liabilities, which means the top line number of 12.7M CAD should be instead $2.2M CAD. still a substantial increase vs. last quarter and last year, but hardly a sustainable number. 2.2M in net earnings with an additional 5m tied up in working capital to expand remexian tonnage is great, a strong improvement from Q3 2025 or even Q2 2026.
I am not sure what the convention is, but in the quarterly report it is in front of net income. The only derivative liabilities im aware of for HITI are the warrants for CRON which will hopefully never be realized; and the Remexian put option which allows the current owners of remexian to sell their side of the business to HITI for \~$50m CAD. That is a big chunk of change. changes in the valuation of the put option can wildly swing this number, and a run-up in stock price/market cap will see some pretty gnarly paper losses. I really wish Raj would just purchase the thing asap at the 4.0 multiple instead of waiting another year for 3.6. Maybe he has a deal with Remexian that he will give them the two years. Ah well. Its still a great purchase for the company and shareholders by ratio. Id just rather pay 50 for something instead of 100.
It’s really not coming anytime soon. Each state will be in control of their program. HITI would also make 15% more in margin ie low 40s vs mid to high 20s with seed to sale. Cdn govt shaves 15%
It has to do with the valuation of the 49% remaining stake of remexian. HITI will be highly incentivized to purchasing it outright in the next 3 months. Basically as Remexian does better, it will get more expensive to acquire the reimaining half of the company for HITI.
Thats a pretty big move up to $2.93 on the numbers coming out. Certainly keep an eye on HITI tomorrow
anyone buying HITI?
I am playing HITI longterm. In Raj we trust.
HITI, slowly but steadily moving upwards
HITI recently gave revenue guidance for Q3 of $195-200m. That's a roughly 10% increase quarter over quarter. It's a good company, it'll be on more people's radar once cannabis stocks recover.
Well there are also names like HITI and certain LPs that have federally legal operations and good businesses.
I've been following hiti since 2021, so thats not new. Their earnings are usually an orchestrated sell off almost everytime (except when they are bad). Do take a look at HITI's 3-year chart and tell me what you see. I'd be happy to hear your views. Glta
HITI accumulation in progress, gearing up for another run with earnings about 3 weeks away. Glta
Over just the last 12 months, CGC and TLRY diluted for 400 million USD. This is AFTER these meme stocks are down -99%. During last 12 months these two stocks had operating cash flow of -125M. This is nearly the entire value of Auxly + HITI COMBINED. These two have operating cash flow of more than 40M. This is why cannabis is a joke meme shithole
Still true Tilray and Canopy are worth $1B. Operating cash flow: -124,4M $ VFF + Auxly + HITI are worth just over $700m. Operating cash flow: 94,4M $ Casual 225 milion profitability delta. Joke ass meme shithole sector
Combined Tilray and Canopy are worth $1B. Operating cash flow: -124,4M $ VFF + Auxly + HITI are worth just over $700m. Operating cash flow: 94,4M $ Casual 200 milion profitability delta. Joke ass meme shithole sector
HITI is always a consistent bet
You have to mention something about HITI before they'd even *think* about replying. Lol.
Yeah I meant relative to their valuation, which is primarily cash. I might be a shareholder one day but I'm not interested in the cultivation business, there's too much room for disruption in Canada and the US from globalization of the supply chain and interstate commerce. However if they found a way to grow the Spinach, Lord Jones brands internationally without cultivating all the product themselves, and acquired high quality US brands like Wyld supplementally .. that would get my attention. At the moment HITI is the only investment I like in the space. I guess CRON agrees because despite passing up so many M&A opportunities they still offered HITI $30m of convertible debt.
I[m not a SNDL shareholder. I'm just someone who can actually read. You do yourself and your investment a disservice when you fight against your own baseless assumptions instead of accepting actual due diligence. In your mind this is some kind of "SNDL vs HITI" conversation but that's all in your mind. I'm looking at this objectively, you're just as biased as the SNDL folks.
Got more HITI today..... GTII closed 4 cents too high for my limit order. 🙃
I'm fully aware of the numbers. It's not a race and that's not Raj's style. HITI takes a disciplined approach to store site selection and funds organic store growth with free cash flow. No need for dilution. When Trulieve deconsolidated their Arizona, PN rec assets, HITI did not announce that they were now the world leader in retail, even though it was technically true. I think ZG is jumping the gun especially because of the AGCO investigation would risk that title, giving it back to HITI. At any moment, Nasdaq could allow trulieve to reconsolidate, giving the title back to them. A major merger could also happen, sending any of these companies far from the #1 spot. Raj mentioned during the AMA that any new M&A in Canadian retail will likely resemble the recent deal, small 4-store acquisition in differentiated markets at around 4.5x EBITDA valuations. These deals are now typically funded via a 33/33/33 split of dilution, FCF, and debt. I'll be tuning into the SNDL earnings call today. Very curious to hear ZG comment on the AGCO investigation for the first time vocally.
Guilty as charged, though let's be fair, when one of your key equity bets is showing record numbers while the rest of the sector is bleeding out, you take your wins where you can get it. HITI's success *was* good for SNDL's balance sheet at the time. No shame in highlighting a win. Let’s not forget that SNDL is structured as an investment company, not just the largest cannabis & liquor retailer in Canada. 🤷🏼
You're also the guy that shared HITIs record financials on r/weedstocks framed as a SNDL win because they own 5% of HITI.
Very likely and am waiting as well. RYM, TSND and CL will be my plays. I've already bought into HITI and OGI the last couple of weeks.
For long term. HITI. It is the most consistent of the bunch.
A mention here and there but HITI
Then how come HITI is going down?
Yeah, I also get that vibe. Sundial drew forst.blood by fucking with HITI's stock.(right?). This may be a bit of regulatory tit for that tat?
imo this is about SNDL and HITI fighting.
HITI is the only weed play. It's consist. Managed well. Is not dependent on rescheduling, but can only benefit from it.
Counterpoint: You are making shit up. The only tantrums around Tilray are from people who do not even invest in the company. Any attempt at discussion is met with derision. This sub has devolved into a Green Thumb, Trulieve and Cresco circlejerk.. with a light glazing of VFF, Auxly and HITI for good measure. Two of those with a higher share dilution than Tilray. But yeah, toooooootal meme stock. Look at that stock price fly! 🤡
Why is this subreddit obsessed with trashing Tilray for dilution? 1: ACB total diluted shares- 7.43 billion (!!!) 2: CGC total diluted shares- 4.14 billion 3: SNDL total diluted shares-2.5 billion 4: HITI total diluted shares-1.32 billion **5: TLRY total diluted shares- 1.05 billion** 6: OGI total diluted shares- 563 million 7: CRON total diluted shares-375 million I am the first one to criticize Tilray, but my god the obsession with that company on this subreddit when the vast majority of cannabis companies are disasters and many are more or just as dilutive is just so obnoxious and stupid. And don't kid yourself, if MSOs had the same access to the larger market they would be digging into equity as well. It's free money as far as these companies are concerned, and when things open up more in the USA like in Canada, the competition will become extremely aggressive and the need for funds to grow and keep up will be vast. There isn't some inherent dilutive gene trait in all of the Canadian companies that US companies don't have.
Well you're wrong but HITI. I'm actually up 40% but I've been holding for 4 years.
Their sentiment shows one of the fundamental problem with this new gen of memstock investors. They don't really understand valuation, just vibes. HITI has some interesting promise, but in the short term the stock isn't going to do much because they have pretty much hit market saturation in Canada retail and the Remexian thing is too new to really know how that will play out long term. And they have lost close to $100 million in the last three fiscal years.
HITI Is interesting but they are a low margin high volume play. If they can figure out how to be a higher margin and high volume play I would be more interested. Definitely on the radar though
Lol. there is a serious problem when HITI kills it. And tank everyday. Wow
Oof. I bought into HITI at like 8 or something. Got out around 4. Put the money in Tilray. Cry every day.
HITI is a victim of its own success but I am sure it'll fly one of these days soon. Looking at the charts looks we are in the process of breaking away from channel and that'll see us achieve 5 cad (if we follow the same path as the last run up). Glta
this garbage sector is dragging down my precious $HITI
HITI's price manipulation on ER days is unbelievable and plays out like clockwork everytime. Looking at the charts it's right in the channel and setup for another leg up (like Aug-Sep) last year.
HITI started premarket up 40% this morning. Too bad it didn't hold but at least it's a solid entry for anyone new. Between aftermarket and today's premarket, 8m+ shares have traded. That's over 20x the daily average.
Where are my HITI brothers and sisters at, been waiting on this moment for time 🙏
I am not selling my HITI shares until they are worth 10.
I mean those are some pretty solid numbers. Watch HITI open at -10% tomorrow lol.
Assuming HITI earnings were good given the AH pump. Really should stop putting things on my watchlist and then watching them pump
HITI secured their $40m credit facility with BMO this morning and acquired 4 new stores. PRs available on r/HighTideInc
I'm talking about HITI earnings. You responded to my comment about HITI.
Interesting, HITI also reporting after market.
To be clear, HITI has 92 stores in Alberta, most of which are in the greater Calgary area. This is just the latest one.
For what they promised to be 10 years ago, you're right that's a massive let down. However its not surprising because being a mid-cost LP is pretty much the worst game in town right now. MSOs will also have their lunch eaten but in time. Right now they are protected by state licensed programs, so they don't have to play in a free market like Aurora. Instead focus on companies with differentiated models that can survive commoditization and a free market. Only HITI comes to mind as being a pure play retailer means their (lower) margins are protected. They manage their expectations because margins were never 50%+ like with MSOS during the current Golden age. They learn how to survive now and thrive later. HITI also has a European import subsidiary. Global logistics will always be important regardless of pricing. Again, margins are protected.
Since Trulieve deconsolidated 34 rec stores to list on the NYSE, they have dropped from 240 stores to 206. This means HITI is officially the largest cannabis retail worldwide at 224 stores.
Why don't you scroll through Trulieve or Green Thumb's press release history? They always announce new store openings and nobody complains. People only complain when it's HITI.
Been buying this in my RRSP the past couple weeks. Got a good feeling long term about HITI.
I mean HITI has been on the NASDAQ for 5 years and never has volume.
Day traders will day trade. Nothing new in cannaland. Long GTI, HITI, MSOS, TLRY, and recently on the lows VFF (from bigger to smaller position)
Dunno why I bought some HITI going into earnings. That stock never moves.
Yeah I agree with this, except that idea that US companies will take over the global markets once they mature. In my opinion, everyone will have a fair shot. The US doesn't bring anything special to the table in terms of the global marketplace. If there is consolidation it's more likely to come from global alcohol or tobacco conglomerates than an MSO. Differentiated companies like HITI will probably be acquired and grow ops will shift to places like south America. If you aren't a pure play retailer, global logistics specialist, or CPG company there probably isn't much room for you in the future of the industry. Arguably retail will matter the least since that is also quite susceptible to change and policy variation on a state to state and country to country level.
Anyways, I really don't care for companies with grow ops which is 99% of the industry. That's the part which will suffer long term. That's why I only invest in HITI, and would eventually invest in brand/CPG exclusive focussed companies who source their product from partner growers.
Tbf HITI wasn’t nasdaq listed until 2021ish
That headline lol... As if LPs and HITI have not been NYSE and NASDAQ listed for the better part of 10 years.
People were all over the place with opinions. I definitely didn't expect it this fast, but I always maintained that it was ultimately the decision of NYSE/Nasdaq. Raj from HITI mentioned that Nasdaq permission was the only thing they were missing from opening doors in the US.
Thanks Mate, that's gotta be the most exciting news. Plus the reverse splits, in anticipation of uplist. Man is it tempting to buy in 100% right now. I loaded like 35% long this week with my capital, wish I took it to 50% yesterday. Was buying PLNH, VFF, and trying to wait for MRMD under .08. This morning, my fomo chase entries are HITI, CRON, CGC, and ACB. Saving cash for the OTC American names I need to square up positions on.
Dump weed and tlry and add to your HITI position.
Just surprised to see HITI, CGC and Tlry all in the same portfolio.
HITI will probably be fine if you don’t need the money. The other two keep reverse splitting so I am not confident
I'm confident you'll be fine on HITI, but I wouldn't say the same about the others.
ok, I'm following you - I bought 4 contracts, only becuase I'm limited in available capital - here's what I see, my position, and my exit strat # THE PLAY AT A GLANCE [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#the-play-at-a-glance) ||| |:-|:-| |**Ticker**|HITI| |**Option**|$2.50C Jul17 (call, strike $2.50, expires July 17, 2026)| |**Cost per contract**|$0.25 (bid $0.20 / ask $0.25, verified live June 1)| |**Contracts**|4| |**Total at risk**|$100.16 (including $0.04 regulatory fee)| |**Break-even**|$2.75 (requires +13.2% from $2.43)| |**Expected value**|\+EV -- see model below| |**Probability of profit**|\~42% (model base case)| |**Catalyst date**|June 15, 2026 -- Q2 FY2026 earnings| |**Conviction**|3.5/5| |**Verdict**|ENTERING -- limit order placed after-hours June 1, fills at open June 2| # THE NUMBERS [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#the-numbers) Note: Revenue and income figures are in Canadian dollars (CAD). Divide by \~1.37 for approximate USD. |Metric|Value| |:-|:-| |Current price|$2.43 USD| |52-week range|$2.10 -- $4.055| |Position in range|20% -- near lows| |Market cap|$216.79M USD| |Revenue TTM|$629.85M CAD (+17.4% YoY)| |Operating income TTM|\+$17.33M CAD (positive)| |Free cash flow TTM|\+$18.28M CAD (positive)| |EBITDA TTM|\+$43.82M CAD (6.96% margin)| |Net income TTM|\-$34.45M CAD (non-cash driven)| |Forward PE|41.04 (implies \~$0.06 EPS inflection)| |Beta|1.07| |Shares outstanding|87.9M (+7.4% YoY -- slow dilution)| |Analyst rating|Strong Buy| |Analyst coverage|6 analysts| |Analyst consensus target|$5.67 (+131% from $2.43)| |Earnings date|June 15, 2026 (Q2 FY2026)| |Fiscal year end|October 31| Why the GAAP losses are misleading: The company is a roll-up -- they have grown by acquiring cannabis retail licenses, e-commerce brands, and distribution platforms. Each acquisition creates amortizable intangible assets (brand value, customer lists, licenses). That amortization hits the income statement as a non-cash expense each year. The cash the business actually generates -- as measured by FCF -- has been positive for three consecutive years. # THE CHAIN [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#the-chain) Three strikes available on Robinhood: |Strike|Ask|Bid|Spread|At Risk (1 contract)|Break-even|Needs| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |$7.50C|$0.05|\~$0|Dead|$5|$7.55|\+211%| |$5.00C|$0.10|\~$0|Dead|$10|$5.10|\+110%| |$2.50C|$0.25|$0.20|$0.05 (20%)|$25|$2.75|\+13.2%| The $5C and $7.50C have no real market -- ask prices of $0.05-$0.10 with zero bid. Not usable. The $2.50C is the only viable instrument. The 20% spread ($0.05) is wide but acceptable at this price level -- maximum friction of $5/contract on entry vs. exit. **Position: 4 contracts at $0.25 = $100.16 at risk.** # UPSIDE SCENARIOS [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#upside-scenarios) 4 contracts at $0.25 = $100 total at risk. |HITI price at Jul 17|Option value per contract|4-contract return|Return %| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |$2.75 (break-even)|$0.25|$0|0%| |$3.50|$1.00|\+$300|\+300%| |$4.00|$1.50|\+$500|\+500%| |$5.00|$2.50|\+$900|\+900%| |$5.67 (consensus)|$3.17|\+$1,168|\+1,168%| Expected value model: |Scenario|Prob|HITI price|Option value|EV contribution (4 contracts)| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Strong Q2 beat, FCF acceleration|15%|$4.50-5.67|$2.00-3.17 avg|\+$3.15| |Solid beat, guidance maintained|25%|$3.00-4.50|$0.50-2.00 avg|\+$1.25| |In-line quarter, no catalyst|30%|$2.43-3.00|$0-0.50 avg|\-$0.75| |Miss or guidance cut|20%|$2.10-2.43|$0|\-$1.00| |Significant deterioration|10%|Below $2.10|$0|\-$1.00| EV per contract = +$0.47 on $0.25 invested = approximately +188% expected return Note: This EV model assumes the thesis is correct that GAAP losses are non-cash and the business is genuinely improving. If operating leverage does not show on June 15, the in-line and miss scenarios become more likely. # BEAR CASE [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#bear-case) What kills this trade: 1. Revenue growth decelerates. The 17% TTM growth slows materially -- new store openings flatten, same-store sales disappoint. Cannabis retail is still commoditizing in Canada. 2. FCF turns negative. If operating expenses increase faster than gross profit, the cash story that justifies the position breaks. 3. Sector news. Any negative regulatory development in Canadian cannabis -- pricing pressure, taxation changes, license freezes -- would hit the whole sector including HITI. 4. No catalyst. Management reports an in-line quarter with no evidence of the earnings inflection analysts are projecting. Stock stays flat or dips. Option expires worthless. If things go wrong: stock falls toward $2.10. Option expires worthless. # EXIT RULES [](https://github.com/padraik/island-fund/blob/main/week-02/research/research_HITI.md#exit-rules) * If HITI stock hits $4.50 before June 15: Sell 3 contracts (recover \~$600+), let 1 ride through earnings as a free carry. * On June 15 earnings (before open June 16): Sell all remaining contracts at open June 16 regardless of outcome.
Maybe a little of spce and High tide inc When I share 1W HMA charts, that have bullish crossovers coming up, you better pay attention. $HITI All it takes is one more push towards $2.45 and have support built there. If $HITI manages to do that, the 1W HMA will soon turn green and from there it could produce another September 2025 squeeze. Earnings this month! Also My largest position by far is $HITI , one of the most underfollowed names I've ever seen. Vey undervalued right now based on its current fundamentals
Look $HITI nasdaq. Earnings next month
I'm with you. HITI is a coiled spring getting tighter every quarter. Earnings 6/15. A second consecutive beat to the upside could get this one going.
Big week in UK for cannabis. Could HITI make some acquisition - partnerships announcement for medical cannabis partnerships? I think so.. [https://cannabis-europa.com/events/cannabis-europa-london-2026/](https://cannabis-europa.com/events/cannabis-europa-london-2026/)
One other thing. HITI is developing their own cannabis brands as well like Queen of Bud, by sourcing product from partner growers. By owning 220+ retail stores across Canada they are in a great position to grow and market their own brands. Consider how powerful your local grocery stores are compared. In-house food brands have become the cheapest options available and retailers have massive amounts of data to shape decisions around their products. Think of CostCo and Kirkland. In France we have Carrefour, and 50%+ of the products sold at their stores are Carrefour branded products. Retailers have all the power long term.
You should know by now that foodcooker only engages when you say nice things about VFF, HITI or Auxly. But don't bring up Auxly's \~1.5B share count.
$HITI , no doubt . Earnings next month https://preview.redd.it/yfzpqc1k9a2h1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76b8d5aa51abd4adc0229765db82d0902de3c293
HITI - Canadian canabis retailer is the storefront. Backend is wholesale medical cannabis to Germany (Remexian), and re-rateability comes from US medical cannabis through NuLeaf.
Agreed, however as HITI is not an LP they don't pay excise taxes. The LP and/or end-consumer pays. If things pan out in Germany (and throughout Europe), it will not only be a major growth driver but a solid diversification strategy. Currently one of HITIs biggest risks/threats is if retail opens up to grocery or convenience stores. Unlikely, but still an existential threat that needs to be acknowledged. The medical distribution business abroad gives us a significant safety net to fall back on.
I like that HITI entered Germany. The Canadian excise tax really sucks
Isn't GTBIF profitable? Or HITI? I don't buy the “not profitable” argument. GTBIF has a $300 million cash war chest and very little debt. How did they achieve that if they’re not profitable? There are companies in the market that lose money or generate only a small fraction of that revenue, yet still have insane valuations. GTBIF is trading at only a 1.3x valuation. This isn’t about profitability. This is about OTC, MSOS ETF, short selling, options, and manipulation. I’ll patiently wait for Schedule III and uplisting. After that, we’ll see how it works out. For now, I’m just holding the stocks and obviously not buying options.
HITI not near all time lows, but could be doing better.
Yet, all Canadian companies near at all time lows. HITI, OG, SNDL, ACB, TLRY, CGC.