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Looked into two beaten down names over the weekend: AAON and USLM. AAON (down ~40% ytd): Oklahoma based HVAC company. I’m not too familiar with the space outside of FIX, which I already have a position in. Numbers look solid but I think their outlook for this year led to the most recent sell off. Also their CEO left and sold a bunch of his shares, but I’m less concerned on that. USLM (down ~30% ytd): limestone minerals company. I actually haven’t done much research into why it’s down this year, but it’s interesting reading about the use of limestone. Seems like an interesting way to get exposure to construction.
A lot of people mention the nuclear stocks like CEG, GEV, VST. I’m personally in VST and it’s done very well over the last year. Keep in mind- building nuclear plants takes a while and companies need this energy now. Not to say investing in these companies is a bad idea, but as of today, I don’t think that’s the best approach. I really like LB as a way to get exposure to water, energy, and data centers all in one. They’re literally a company that owns land and collects money from surface rights. Very low CAPEX. FIX (comfort systems) is an interesting name in the HVAC space. Increased energy consumption increases the need for cooling right? I also like VG, which is a natural gas play.
House is about 30 mins away but preferably would like to personally be as hands off as possible. Also those expenses are definitely something I'm aware of, or at least the idea of them. Good news is roof was replaced 2 years and HVAC is 4 years old My initial thought was take equity and invest but looking for other opinions outside of my own as it could help diversify my portfolio and not be fully relying on market conditions. Also might be a higher risk higher reward situation. So just gathering other people's inputs. Thanks for reply.
You should a trusted pro to do some financial planning. This doesn’t mean you have to have them manage your money. But let them map things out for you. If you’re maxing 401ks and still are under limit for backdoor, that means you live very frugal. Great. My gut says sell and invest as it is easier, being a landlord sucks. But try for a while. I bet you don’t like it. If there was a good tenant there already, maybe. But as soon as someone doesn’t pay, you’re out the window on cash flow. A roof. An HVAC. But you should have at least one or two financial pros you trust and respect to discuss things with. It’s like having a good attorney or CPA. Even if you don’t hire them, you should know some.
When your racks go above 20 or 30kw the cooling conversation changes. Hyperscalers never discloses what their use case for a data centre is but analysts are determining it these days by looking at what cooling systems are being put in. A full AI centre needs a different HVAC and fitout.
I just did a quick DD, and found it's a Chinese HVAC company. So when they sold shares in 2023, American's supported the start-up of this company, and the real owners thank you dearly for the contributions you made. Since then, they have not reported any Form 8k or Form 10, so unless you get into an early pump and dump, it's in the dump cycle now.
No no no. Your profit is NOT $700/month. Replaced the HVAC board yet? Fixed a broke slab?
Fuck man my AC is not cooling the house. And I got a date with the goth girl in 11 hours. Called the HVAC company that does free servicing for my AC unit and they're not available until Tuesday. So I turned the AC unit fan on, turning on all fans in the house, and lowering the AC from 79 to 70 so it works harder. Fuck........
Saved and will use this with little to no discretion regardless of color or creed or religion or what the fuck ever I want . HVAC guy: oh yehhh
And when everyone and their mom is a plumber, HVAC, and electrician?
302.58 USD is a lot of money per unit when the business model is inherently bound to fail due to: fallacies within franchised scalability (entry level training) and a general lack of fail-safes on relatively new construction HVAC upkeep and internal climate control technology pricing has to take a toll on any Corporate degree of mitigating green-house emissions closing the case
Makes sense. For me, the problem is I see like the same 60 companies every day I screen lol. That's why I call it the base one. I'll make tweaks from time to time just to find new companies to research. Like keep the PEG under 2, but what if I lowered the revenue growth to like 5% and then upped the EPS to like 15%. Now i'm looking at companies that might not be fast growers, but they are probably increasing their margins, which means they are making more FCF off less money. Or they are buying back a bunch of stocks, but it's another way to look for great businesses. Like I found LMB a long time ago, one of the best performing stocks I've ever bought. If you look at their growth numbers, especially per quarter: [https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US](https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US) It's not the great revenue growth story, but look at the EPS growth and their gross margins, both are growing really nicely. This is because LMB shifted their business model like a year or two ago. They do HVAC and in the past they would do one time installs. They switched over to a model where they work with companies to do maintance and then help them lower power bills. That type of business is higher margin. So since they make more money, notice the growth of the ROIC as well. I enjoy researching companies, so that's why I just like to think of the screener as a filter and then do the research from there.
you can do HVAC school or electrical and get into HVAC, but move over to Controls, you won't have to break your back as much once your the logic guy, also opens up opportunities within HVAC for engineering/software/design etc
If AI pushes the only good job market to blue collar, I can’t decide if I’d go to plumbing, electrical, or HVAC school. Commercial would pay the best with all the data centers. What would be the best of the 3.
I’m working HVAC rn in school for IT. Always wanted to start my own business but moneys tight rn trying to save my way up
Blue collar folk need HVAC, water, and electricity too
I do commercial/ industrial HVACR is 98% or more of my work. Residential HVAC is the other 2% or less. More AI means more servers that need cooling.
1. META: Over 3 billion users, robust AI offering for their ad platform, proven founder CEO 2. GOOGL: Search is potentially slowing but Gemini keeps getting better, YT has more viewers than Netflix, Cloud demand growing and Waymo actually takes rides unlike Tesla 3. ASML: EUV monopoly, huge margins, recurring revenue via maintenance for their machines which only they can service 4. Comfort Systems ($FIX): Strong player in HVAC and data center construction space, with backlog over $8 billion in orders 5. AMD: Growing quickly with strategic partnerships with Google, AWS, Oracle, MI355X AI chips coming out this year should generate strong demand
certainly not a year or two away. it will take longer. you'll still need people like storyboard artists, producers, designers , writers, if you are in show business. personally, I'm in HVAC. but I've seen the work that goes into the big studios.
10 years? I own a company and I can promise you it's only a year or two away. This year alone we have replaced 1 graphic designer, 2 administrative assistants and are on course to eliminate two entire companies that we pay to provide services of a specific nature to us. The moment the USPTO and the US Copyright offices get on the AI bandwagon and clarify their positions on trademarks and copyrights it is fucking over for tens of thousands of illustrators, graphic designers, narrators, film script writers, copywriters, editors, etc. Sorry to tell you all but unless you know a real world skill that the average Joe needs (plumbing, HVAC, automotive, landscaping, etc.) you are absolutely cooked in a couple of years at most.
Listening to the HVAC guys talk about investing in Bitcoin next to me at the local Teriyaki place. One is all in and thinks it's going to a million+ this year. The other thinks it's fake and a Ponzi scheme... Guessing they're both on here. Hey guys 👋
I know tons of companies that contract with Trane for HVAC PMs - haven't checked their financials but they're pretty ubiquitous.
I agree, and the sad part is it feels really busted / inflated. I bought a house for 192K 8 years ago. Its worth about 290K now. I put 20% down, roughly 40K and I have put about 50K into it over those 8 years (deck, HVAC replacement, collapsed sewer main, appliances, etc). If I were to sell it, I'd make 190k (appreciation - amount owed). Ignoring my mortgage (I'd pay about the same in both scenarios) my roi is about 10%. The average return over the last 10 years is roughly 12%.
At a high level, it's all about scale. A tradesman can only fix one HVAC at a time. Or build one house at a time. Or service one car at a time. Or whatever. A Harvard engineer could develop more an efficient home heating solution that saves billions in energy. Or a Harvard graduate that cures a cancer can save hundreds of thousands of people in future generations. So yes, it makes more sense to divert resources to those that have the highest potential impact. This tweet is just red meat for his uneducated base. It's penny wise and dollar foolish.
At a high level, it's all about scale. A tradesman can only fix one HVAC at a time. Or build one house at a time. Or service one car at a time. Or whatever. A Harvard engineer could develop more a efficient home heating solution that saves billions in energy. Or a Harvard graduate that cures a cancer can save hundreds of thousands of people in future generations. So yes, it makes more sense to divert resources to those that have the highest potential impact. This tweet is just red meat for his uneducated base. It's penny wise and dollar foolish.
Had one of these replaced last summer by a company, they charged almost $300. After I looked up the price I was pissed, HVAC is a fuckin scam lol
Right but this doesn't refute my example of a college educated person being gullible in situations dealing with things they aren't educated in. And I dispute your point that college is the only way people gain critical thinking skills. Again, I agree that the acquisition of information leaves one less likely to be fooled, only that specifically a college degree or a lack of one is a blanket indication of one's susceptibility to be manipulated. A CS major is not likely to be able to sus out misinformation about surgery, nor a doctor about computer science. Same applies to plumbing, construction, HVAC etc. When you just say "higher education" when reffering specifically to a degree, you're rolling over the fact that degrees are very targeted. If you actually meant higher education, I completely agree, as I've said, but education isn't limited to the university. That is more true now than ever before
So you’re gambling your very hard earned money here on the internet on WSB and bitching about 2.4% inflation. Yep, got it. Want a hand up? Go become a plumber or electrician or HVAC technician. You will get more hours than you would ever want to work for the next 20 years. You will actually have to work but you sure won’t be poor. My cousin’s kid is 23, computer tech but delivers for door dash at night. Made 45/k as s 2nd job delivering food last year.
Thank you. I invest in real estate ( not funds but actual real estate) As rates on treasuries rise they become an alternative choice to returns on long-term rental properties. Been working on a graph to show the relationship between the two. Rising property taxes, insurance costs, cost or repairs for major items like HVAC etc.. (housing prices are already on the decline based on sold prices so that is another factor)
We take care of the HVAC. A lot of equipment out there.
What I meant but did not convey well by RIGHT NOW! for a leaking roof or dead HVAC is that you need to get the repair scheduled and started ASAP. Yes, there were several days to get the money to a place where I could pay in a way they accept and was best for me. I do not want to pay a 3% surcharge on a $10K job to use a credit card. This has not been a problem. Payments have been due on job completion. I haven't asked how long they would wait. I have the money. I'm not going to drag it out for weeks.
Right? HVAC parts are going to be interesting this summer as a gigantic percentage of parts are made in China. Hope everyone's air conditioning works. I looked into land surveying as a career recently. Amazing how many surveyors are age 60+ and own their own business. There's going to be a lot of opportunity in the trades going forward. If I was 20, I'd be going to work there.
IBP is interesting. Years ago when I was looking for companies with tailwinds from the infrastructure and IRA bills, they always popped up. Them and SSD is another one. No idea. In the interview, Brad basically talks about a lot of these businesses are not investing a ton in modernizing and a lot of them are just disjointed. Like a roll up company in the space makes sense. Acquire them, make it easier to sell. Update POS and websites, etc. There's so many jokes I see now of days around venture capital buying up like tiny HVAC and plumbing companies.
I think the problem you’ve stumbled on is that not every sq ft Carrie’s the same cost in commercial. Do you need a way to equate 1sqft of one type commercial property with another. One way to do this might be to tie it to the cost of something that scales with the type of property. Perhaps the amount of electrical wire or the service amperage of the building or the HVAC BTU. For example, If a building requires 20,000 btu construction will be half the cost of a building that requires 40,000 btu. Then you could compare labor cost to BTU to understand whether your costs are on track or not. Hopefully you’re not trying to price / estimate quotes based on this method, that would be lazy
It's common around here (central Virginia) with reputable, long established service companies - plumbing, HVAC, electrical. I may have overstated that they didn't take credit cards at all. Some would take CC with a 3% surcharge or offer financing.
\>What do people keep an emergency fund around for? A washer and dryer? or being out of work for 6 months? Being also retired I am permanently out of work. My pension and SS are permanent income so I don't need emergency fund for that. When I was working I wasn't investing well and had almost two years in high yield savings. Even if not by design it turned out that was fortunate. I needed \~15 months of that when I got laid off to carry me until the pension and then SS started. As a homeowner I feel the need to be prepared for major home maintenance and repair expenses. Washer, dryer, refrigerator, stove, water heater are no big deal as long as they don't all come at the same time. A leaking roof or HVAC replacement is a different story. When you need those you need them RIGHT NOW! I have had to do both, the roof twice, and the heat pump is of an age that it can die any day. I had them out for a minor repair recently. They said if the evaporator coil leaks I will need a whole new unit. They didn't take credit cards for the $9K roof or $10K heat pump. They wanted a check. Money for that doesn't belong in stocks. I also keep a rising/sinking fund for major car repairs and replacement. That doesn't belong in stocks either.
No company is going to take a hit on margin and eat the tariff. Consumer cost is calculated by cost of goods and overhead to meet an expected gross revenue. If cost of goods goes up this is calculated in the new cost to consumer. I just redid my company price book for the third time this year. It takes about 20 hours and I absolutely hate it. The last two years I redid the Pricebook twice each year due to rising material/equipment costs. Business owners are paying more for materials/goods so Yes, you all are and will pay more. I find it funny with factories being moved back to the U.S. so companies can avoid tariffs. Spend tens, hundreds of millions to build a factory. Cost of labor goes up. And this will make things great again? I doubt prices would go down and highly doubt wages would rise. I work in HVAC. When you purchase a high efficient heating or cooling system your utility company will send you rebate money. They do this because having the consumer purchase more efficient equipment reduces the amount of power they need to produce. If a utility company builds a new power plant there is an average 50 year R.O.I. They would rather pay you to upgrade than build a new plant.
Moodys report hits and 5 minutes later my HVAC goes on the fritz. Gonna be a sweaty weekend
$FIX. Monster in the HVAC space that always crushes earnings and trades at a fwd pe of 24.
First, I’d look around and make sure it wasn’t a setup. Then I’d cash it and treat it with the same discipline I’ve used for every dollar I’ve ever invested. Put $30 million into individual value stocks. Real companies, real cash flow, bought at a good price. No hype stocks, no story stocks. Just boring, consistent, profitable businesses I understand. Put $10 million into real estate. Direct ownership of apartments in stable markets like the Midwest. I’ve done this for two decades and still love it. Cash flow, appreciation, and tax advantages. Set aside $5 million for small private businesses. Not venture capital or tech startups. I mean HVAC companies, laundromats, pest control. Boring, simple, and predictable. Keep $2 million in cash and treasuries. That’s my opportunity fund for when markets drop and everyone else is scared. Use $3 million for fun money. Deep value, small caps, maybe a short-term opportunity here or there. Still grounded in fundamentals, not speculation. What I would not do: no crypto, no futures, no margin unless the numbers make perfect sense. No gambling, no chasing, no excitement. Even with $50 million, I’d still max out a Roth IRA using a backdoor, contribute to an HSA, and put money into a solo 401(k) if I had business income. I’d set up 529s if I had kids or wanted to fund education for family. Money is freedom, not just fuel for a lifestyle. You treat it like it’s your last dollar, because if you screw it up, it might be.
I quite enjoy having a landlord, who hasn’t raised my rent in 3 years, but has paid tens of thousands of dollars to water proof the basement, replace a water heater and HVAC system and refrigerator, and mows the lawn every week. All I’m saying is that there should be a minimal amount of scrutiny applied to the axiom that buying a house is always good and renting is bad.
sure is if you like working 60-80hrs/week, with 35%+ of lawyers ending up with severe depression, alcoholism, substance abuse and a higher chance of suicide than the majority of the population. All that for a worst pay than a guy in the trades doing plumbing or putting together electric wiring or HVAC or whatever. But hey you get to 'look cool', in a suit and tie.. at the kid's table while your real boss are the rich clients you work for, who are the actual millionaires and remind you that you exist to serve them as the peasant class that you are. But hey, you got a nice tie, u matter riight? \#FuckLaw #JustSayNo
Does your job offer a 401K match? Is so, I would may out the match before the Roth. Regarding saving for the house, keep in mind you definitely need an emergency fund of 6 months living expenses BEFORE you buy a house. This is in case one of you gets laid off or you have a major house expense (roof replacement, HVAC, foundation emergency, etc.). But to answer, if you don’t have a 401k match, then I would suggest splitting your extra disposable income between the Roth and the savings for a house. So partially fund the Roth and grow your down payment fund at the same time. It will take a little longer, but ensures you don’t have a gap. Finally, that pension sounds amazing, but I wouldn’t bank on it. The likelihood you’ll stay at the same job/company for 30+ years and that the pension will survive that long are very very slim. So make sure you have backups. A Roth is good.
EME is cool. I personally already own FIX and LMB. Plus CARR for my HVAC stuff, so didn't want to get too concentrated. LPLA is another interesting name for financials. Valuation isn't too terrible: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lpla/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lpla/statistics/) Much bigger company. If you don't know them, LPLA is the biggest player in the independent financial advisors space. So when someone has their own office, more than likely, they are using LPLA stuff. They are pretty well known if you work in the industry, but most people never heard of them. Here's the latest investor presentation: [https://investor.lpl.com/static-files/99e9ca06-8828-48a2-a83f-e1a5e987467c](https://investor.lpl.com/static-files/99e9ca06-8828-48a2-a83f-e1a5e987467c)
It depends on your emergency fund. Are we taking loss of income because that needs to be 3-12 months depending on your job. Are we talking major house repairs? That is your insurance deductible or maybe the cost of a new HVAC system. Are we talking medical? That is your full out of pocket max. Are we talking vehicle or veterinary? That’s another 2-5k. The full emergency kit might be 30-50k.
HVAC guys with like 1 year experience get about 70-75k also. couple more years experience they can ask for $90 - 100k pretty much.
ZTEK. Had a decent run and small pull. Could be ready to run. It is boring. ZTEK has a patented HVAC filter coating that kills virus and reduces energy costs. It has hit the market in CDN, deals in the middle east. EPA approval pending. Clean indoor air is a huge market. This technology is ground breaking. This is one of multiple IP technologies that they have.
The simple solution to avoid tariffs is to buy American made products. Importers don't pay tariffs. Consumers pay for tariffs. Just like in my business, when the price of goods goes up, I pass the increase to my customers. Tariffs protect the manufacturers and manufacturing jobs in the countries charging those tariffs. In fact, now that certain HVAC parts prices have increased, local supply houses are beginning to rotate their stock with U.S. made components.
I just bought a fancy new HVAC with the UV light with my earnings. Thank you for being my exit liquidity 💋
Sleepy Joe admin forced every HVAC manufacturer to switch refrigerants to 454B or R32. Put the buggy in front of the horse because there isn’t enough jugs made to hold 454B and there’s a crazy shortage right now on the jugs, not the refrigerant. R32 hasn’t had the issue. Daiken uses R32. There’s absolutely a play to be made if you connect some dots. Shortage won’t last though so could go either way
Ima be honest, I'm an HVAC contractor. During Trump's first term somewhere along the line they wrote a bill to change refrigerant in A/C systems and force some other changes that benefit the environment in the long run. This isn't the first time they have done this, the current refrigerant does not deplete the ozone but it does have a high GWP. The old refrigerant was like a fuckin ozone wrecking ball so that's good. Well this was supposed to be rolled out slowly, and the Biden administration pushed it through right at the end of his term with a hard start of 2025. Kinda rushed it a little, people weren't ready. Guess what equipment wasn't being made yet? Guess what new refrigerant is unavailable? Guess what equipment had production stopped and is now low on stock and significantly more expensive? Now Trump is the fucking tariff sheriff and a lot of this stuff is made overseas or has important parts sourced overseas. My life has gotten so much more difficult for A/C season and it hasn't even started yet. On top of that, this whole situation has a change that people ACTUALLY need to be worried about, which is a requirement for commercial refrigeration to be updated and have automated leak detection. This is an EXTREMELY expensive upgrade, initially to install and to maintain over the years. Commercial refrigeration includes grocery stores, and a lot of grocery stores that aren't Wal-Mart do not have the kind of cash to shell out for that new system and also do not have the ability to run with entire refrigeration sections down for extended periods of time. A smarter person than me could probably look into the impacts this will have on publicly traded grocery stores and make a stock play based off of it but all I know is that I wish I had the manpower to start bidding some of those commercial jobs that are gonna be popping up really soon
Measles. We have measles instead. And we won't be able to afford HVAC anymore.
It’s wild we live in a full on dystopia but because we have HVAC and chemo therapy and shit losers will tell you everything amazing and since we don’t shit in a hole in the ground while having small pox anymore we can’t be bummed out.
I use a couple of companies with phone apps that you probably already have. Cash App and Robinhood. They both have custom buy and sell limit orders. I prefer Robinhood because they allow after hours and overnight trading. Although Cash App is great for beginners. Remember that buying and selling for gains is the goal. Don't go for dollars. Go for percentage points. On most days, 5% is a good day. Imagine buying $1000 worth of XYZ, and it jumps 5%. You sell for $1050. Now the same stock falls 8%, and you buy $1050 worth. You set a new sell order for an auto sell on a 5% gain. It sells on the next rise for $1102.50. You just made 10.25% of your original amount in 2 trades. When I started doing this with Cash App, I had forgotten about a customer paying me $340 for an HVAC repair a couple of years earlier. I was checking out the spp when I noticed the stock trading feature. I started picking my favorites and trading, watching indicators, and reading about the companies I chose to follow. Within a year, I turned that $340 into more than $3000. The next year, it increased to more than $8000. I started putting more money in, and it just blew up from there. Good luck.
Yeah, it’s going to be a rough summer when all of the HVAC parts are made in China. smh
So hear me out on this. When I hear the Port of Los Angeles saying next month there will a 35% slow down in cargo containers, and I hear about how companies like Lowes and Home Depot will have empty shelves, my mind goes to washers, dryers, refrigerators, dishwashers, screws, nuts, bolts, wood, HVAC systems, Hot Water Heaters, Furnaces etc... In opposition, we have the President of the united states, this grown ass man, who we all know was good buddies with Epstein, this grown ass man, his mind instantly goes to little girls and dolls. And he's a developer, he owns golf resorts, he owns buildings, those places require maintenance and repair, they have appliances that break that need parts and need to be replaced, and yet his mind goes to little girls and dolls. I mean what the fuck, how is this guy a sitting president. What rebuke did the reporter make, did anyone call him out on this insanity of his?
MAGA Early 2025: Tariffs are good and manufacturing needs to be done in AMERICA! MAGA Late 2025: Where are all the toys for Christmas? Why do my shoes and clothes cost so much? How come car prices have gone up? Why can't my HVAC repairman get parts?
I need a new HVAC unit. Someone give me a good play 
Have a few friends who own their own businesses and were planning expansions. (not manufacturing, just service and repair businesses). All of them have ceased expansion plans and are hunkering down which means no hiring either. Their material/parts costs are already soaring. Water heaters were announced to be going up 14% already, along with all HVAC systems. Seeing high single to double digit increases on plumbing parts as well. Furnace filters have gone up 8%. Customers are pulling back with replacements, and want repairs only.....after all, it's cheaper to pay a 14% increase on a $450 part + labor than it is to pay a 14% increase on a $8,000 system We have also seen flooring go up in price, we just renovated one of our rental units and between material and labor it was 12% more to put down LVP. And were told material is going up again next month I don't care what your political persuasion is....but this is nothing less than a complete and utter economic shtshow.....and the worst hasn't even arrived. This is like Interstellar where you see the tsunami wave moving away from you thinking you're in the clear b/c the S&P and rebounded.....until you look in front of you and see the one headed straight for you
A few things. First you are right about the revenue, but look at their EPS growth for LMB. [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-LMB/forecast/](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-LMB/forecast/) EPS went from .74, to 1.76 and last year was 3.60. Basically they used to do more one time jobs but have shifted their company model to being more of a repair/serving model as well as working with companies to help lower their power bills and upgrade their HVAC. FIX is just a beast of a company, but LMB isn't a AI play, it's a general play on HVAC and the need of companies to repair and upgrade their systems. Also the share dilution isn't that big of a concern imo. Yes, they increased their share count by 1.82% las year, but there is literally like 10M shares available on the float. There is also 10% insider ownership.
^^^ people underestimate the electronics aspect. China is the dominant player in HVAC equipment manufacturing. I’m stocking up significantly on AC equipment right now.
Just wait until the peak of North American summer and Americans realize the POTUS has doubled priced of replacement AC units and the coolant to go in them... if tariffs remain, you may have nursing homes and hospitals unable to afford to maintenance their HVAC equipment and keep people alive...
lol - tell me what maintenance solar panels need. I’ve had them on our primary home for 5 years, have yet to pay any “maintenance”. Yes, other things will break. HVAC will break. Well pump or septic might go out. Can’t plan for those things. But for the months they don’t, we are literally <$1,000 a month for a 2,900sqft home on 4 acres.
you can spread out from that though. entry level electrician and get into HVAC or some similar field you can hit $100k pretty fast.
>Trades are wonderful professions, and I have never seen an out of work plumber or welder who wanted to work. Apparently you live under a rock. I spent the vast majority of my life in the trades. Under Reagan, you couldn't buy a job. Unemployment was 10.8% in November 1982 and things didn't pick up again until the late 80's. Many trades workers, me included, were forced to leave construction to find other work...any work...to keep food on the table and a roof over their head. Everyone in the trades know that work is cyclical and that downturns can be devastating. There was another downturn in the mid 90's and of course 2007-2010 when the housing bubble burst. Luckily, neither of those two affected me personally, but my phone was ringing off the hook daily with former co-workers, carpenters and laborers, begging me for a job. I couldn't help any of them as the company I was working for had a hiring freeze. I was building Microsoft when the bubble burst and went directly to a new university library and was hearing the same unemployment horror stories from all the trades. Plumbers, fitters, ironworkers, electricians, HVAC workers...the entire industry was down. Point being...saying you've never seen a trades person out of work, you either haven't paid attention or you're disingenuous as fuck.
You are so much smarter and motivated than I was at your age. Stay healthy, pick a good career and you will be successful. Spend some time here, looking at job growth prospects, salaries abs education and training needed. Right now the best investment you can make is in yourself and you are blue chip! https://www.bls.gov/ooh/ Advice for 5-10 years from now: If you do go into real estate/sweat equity remember location, location, location. Look for an area just beginning to improve; make sure to have lots of inspections done - by specialists in roofing, plumbing, HVAC, electrical, even structural if there are concerns, well and septic if that’s a thing. All purpose inspectors miss a lot. Get very familiar with home owners and flood requirements and shop around not just for rates but advice — you want a broker who can tell you what issues might be concerns for underwriting.
Umm... 1. Automotive parts and assembly, electronics (Apple is shifting production there) 2. IT services 3. Chemicals 4. Consumer Durables (refrigerators, HVAC, TV, etc) 5. Food processing 6. Renewable energy equipment 7. Aerospace and defense 8. Gems and Jewelry 9. Logistics and e-commerce Say what you want about the poos, they can do business.
Tesla is like the only thing keeping this thing afloat today. Gonna be bad when the HVAC business owners are done maxing their CCs to buy this thing
>The general trends of electrification and HVAC seem still pretty strong for a long time. Its coming but it will be a much longer timeframe than most people might think. Natural gas hydronic boilers for example are more cost efficient and green than electric atm, plus the industry is dominated by boomers and is very slow to adopt
I’d imagine a lot of parts as well come from China. My brother works in the hobby industry and everyone orders parts from China. That’s why I love LMB. They changed their business model the last few years to move from one time bids and now work with companies on being their servicer for their systems. They also come in and help with updating systems to help lower costs. The general trends of electrification and HVAC seem still pretty strong for a long time.
Indeed. My company is 100% private so it isnt listed, but generally HVAC is recession resistant since these large scale projects are bid 1-2 years out in advance so by the time we start to feel it, we are already recovering from the worst of the downturn. Plus its a critical industry to keep the building going. This time might be different since our costs are going up at the source while customers are cutting back, which didn't happen in previous recessions
It’s also really interesting to know how many mom and pop HVAC companies there are. Such a bummer. Funny enough some of my favorite names are HVAC related lol. LMB is one of them. Actually looked into some lighting stocks in the past, AYI and LYTS.
Industrial HVAC and lighting. Yeah its ridiculous how much its starting to sting, and we're medium sized.
Actual report from the 60s that reinforces that fact: https://youtu.be/aXSKeBhvuao?si=OxXPuEoIsH4ECy0e Factory or manufacturing work is not nearly as rewarding as other blue collar work like HVAC, plumbing, electrical which requires more creative thought to figure out solutions.
There’s a ton of great companies that never get reported on. EME is up there. LMB is one my favorite names in the HVAC space. I’d say like 99% of the market has no idea about these companies.
There’s so many solid HVAC and electrical names out there. As a long term holder of this, I’m just blown away with how impressive they’ve been growing the past few years.
$FIX Q1 EPS $4.75, consensus $3.71 Reports Q1 revenue $1.83B, consensus $1.77B. Brian Lane, Comfort Systems USA's President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Our amazing teams across the United States continue to achieve world class performance. We are reporting earnings per share that exceed every past quarter, a remarkable accomplishment given that the first quarter is historically our seasonally weakest period. These results reflect a promising start to 2025. Per share earnings in the first quarter of 2025 was $4.75, more than 75% higher than the spectacular results we achieved in the first quarter of 2024. During the first quarter, we also made substantial payments to a key customer resulting in a long-expected normalization of our working capital." Honestly, HVAC is one of the strongest themes I've invested in of the past few years lol.
What are everyone's thoughts on potential interstate commerce and how it affects each company? For indoor growing, it takes a huge amount of energy and HVAC to grow quality product. You know what makes those operating expenses grow? Trying to grow weed in fucking Florida (looking at you Trulieve). It's a lot easier to control your grow variables, and maintain your mechanical equipment, when outside RH isn't 90+. Also have to think about energy and labor costs being wayyy cheaper in bumfuck nowhere in the middle of midwest states.
Lol, why do you think private equity is buying up every industry they can? Doctor's offices, dental practices, HVAC businesses, Plumbing companies... They buy it then we rent it back forever.
The problems of a Fortune 500 would be amplified - but I had a HVAC tech, bottom of the totem pole, for a local small business talking about how the tariffs were going to price them out of existence. Like dude is 2 years into his career in the bluest of blue collar work and he was giving me the full breakdown. It’s going to be bad.
What’s HBCU is that a new HVAC
you don't have to. sorry, you're gonna have to be an HVAC guy to build robot factories.
I work in HVAC manufacturing in the USA. It’s been… tricky. .
ANYONE ELSE HERE IN HVAC SALES ILL SUCKER PUNCH MY NEXT MALE CUSTOMER WHO SAYS, “I need to talk to my wife about it” Bitch give me a proper objection so we can find common ground 👺
Yeah I work on the estimating side for a large contracting firm that does the HVAC and plumbing for larger facilities schools hospitals industrial etc and it's creating absolute chaos for us.
I suspect first in line for upside down business model will be empty 2nd tier commercial office property in urban cores standing on long dated energy performance contracts funded thru junk bands but dependent on future energy bills for "realized savings" while long vacant FED US GSA office buildings (since 2020) are continuing to have high cost for HVAC and lighting, just using less water, as these empty surplus government facilities are turned over to the private sector to unwind. I watch for and count cars in parking lots. What do others watch as tells of future events?
He's right, ETFs are new relative to the creation of mutual funds, and HVAC.
Tyranny of the majority may sound fun if you long for that..... but the taxes and inflation are gonna hit everything. Talked to an angry HVAC guy who had to cancel work that requires parts. American retailers are raising prices too if you didn't notice. Hope your AC/Heater doesn't break down! Hope you don't have a small business that relies on parts.
You’re forgetting about all of the sub components that are added to various final products here; almost 100% of those tiny parts that you never see in your favorite goods are made in China. Paint chips (chemical synthesis) are made in China and mixed in the USA for example. Nobody has made springs, gaskets, heating coils, water pumps, condensers for 40+ years in mass in the US. All of your packaging and plastics - China. You take a coffee machine and it’s got 50 components in it - none manufactured here. When your HVAC, Lawn Mower, Roof or Alternator fails we will all be up shit creek without a paddle.
Tried to. Trump (probably) started a war with HVAC companies.
Most people don’t make anywhere near $800k. The average household income in the US (using 2023 numbers because it’s what I found first) was $114,500. They’re taxed at 22% federally, meaning $25,190 of that goes to the government. They probably have tax credits and write offs to lessen that, but to keep it simple, I’m going to ignore that as well as the state taxes they also may have to pay. Ok, we’re left with $89,310. The average 30-year mortgage that same year was $2,715, so now we’re left with $56,730. This amounts to a monthly budget of $4,727. In 2023, I was paying $3,000 per month just for daycare for my two children, which is actually slightly less than average Care.com’s 2023 Care of Cost report found for my area, but we’ll go with it. A family is now left with $1,727 per month for insurance, car payments, utilities, groceries, phone service, and if there’s anything left at all, savings. The USDA has a grocery budget tool that outlines plans for how much to spend for a family of 4. Their lowest plan, which they use to determine if people receive government assistance, is set at $980.90 per month so now we’re at $746.10. None of this accounts for debt people may have from credit cards, school loans, or healthcare. The average monthly credit card payment is about $110. The average monthly student loan payment is about $500. It took us two years to pay off my first child’s NICU bill and he was only there for a week. Now imagine your roof starts leaking. Your car breaks down. Your HVAC system dies. Any single extra cost can easily send a family into bankruptcy.
We're just gonna bring 90,000 factories back to the US and have people working for minimum wage doing repetitive tasks. That's literally the plan "the armies of millions of people- well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little- little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America. It's going to be automated and great Americans- the tradecraft of America, is going to fix them, is going to work on them. They're going to be mechanics. There's going to be HVAC specialists. There's going to be electricians, the tradecraft of America. Our high school educated Americans- the core to our workforce, is going to have the greatest resurgence of jobs in the history of America to work on these high-tech factories, " -Howard Nuttlick, Commerce Secretary, approx 3 billion USD net worth
HVAC pays damn ass
I know a someone who thought it would be a great idea to buy a Cybertruck and have it wrapped to advertise his HVAC business. Guess that return on investment didn't turn out too well.
Across the last 30 years, haven't the number of college students grown substantially? Is there not a much larger percentage of degree holders compared to non-degree holders now than 30 years ago? I would be willing to bet there are at least double the number of higher education institutions now than 30 years ago. If you are saying that the overall standards for obtaining a degree have been reduced to placate to all of the "well he tried his best" and "everyone gets a trophy" masses out there...**that** I would agree with. 30 years ago not everyone was going to or even expected to go to college. In the 90s my high school and other surrounding high schools could send students to a vocational school to learn auto body work, engine repair, HVAC, and other blue collar trade jobs. I wouldn't necessarily consider that dumbing them down, more of an acknowledgement that college isn't for everyone and/or not everyone can afford to college directly after high school. Student loans started to take off and now everyone could afford to go, but that still didn't mean they all belonged there. If they weren't trying to get good grades in high school when it was free or relatively cheap to attend, a switch isn't just going to flip when they get on a college campus and now become studious. Especially on student loans because that is current free money and future me will be the one to take care of that. And thus the student loan debacle was born.
Honestly most supercomputer manufacturing is HVAC, industrial cooling and electrical infrastructure. Server racks take a lot of infrastructure and supporting industries.
people pour grease down the drain, schedule onsite maintenance for a tripped breaker or GFCI plug, never change HVAC air filters, blast AC with the windows open, and ignore leaks for months - then when the rent goes up they feel victimized. Then the rentiod looks at you like 
>The majority of people dont change their spending habits because of economics factors. You really think majority of middle age couple are gonna stop traveling because the macoreconomics and the economy isnt as stable as it was ? um, yes? they absolutely do. and as a middle income DINK with who is probably better positioned than most, im absolutely cutting back on trips and extraneous purchases. the things im buying are big ticket appliances (HVAC, stove, cedar fence) that were at end of their useful life and will likely increase in cost substantially in the near future so i wanted to get ahead of it. other than that im entirely moving into defensive positions and building up cash so that if i or my partner get laid off we can continue paying our mortgage for 1-2 years. airlines are already cutting outlooks [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/airlines-expected-to-cut-2025-outlooks-as-travel-demand-falters.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/airlines-expected-to-cut-2025-outlooks-as-travel-demand-falters.html) travel to the US is plummeting due to boycotts [https://www.travelweekly.com/North-America-Travel/Air-travel-from-Canada-drops-for-key-summer-season](https://www.travelweekly.com/North-America-Travel/Air-travel-from-Canada-drops-for-key-summer-season) and this is without knowing how tariffs will actually be implemented because the guidance changes day to day or hour to hour. if tariffs stay on EU and China and Canada a severe recession is basically guaranteed, and more and more Americans will cut back spending due to severe cost increases and mounting job losses.