HVAC

Sk6217

Sorry yes, 4 months of expenses. Over the past 2 years I've redone our septic system, roof, HVAC and renovated our bathroom and kitchen so all major expenses should be at a minimum for the near future. *Knock knock*

EscapeTheCubicle

Republicans have implemented HUGE tax cuts meanwhile Democrats have implemented HUGE tax credits. Kamala top two policies were increasing the child tax credit to $6,000 and to add a $25,000 first time home buyer tax credit. If you would rather use actual passed Democrat legislation then look at Joe Biden presidency. More direct stimulus checks in 2021 despite a booming 2021 economy, $6,000 tax credit for electric vehicles, $2,000 for heat pumps, $600 for HVAC systems, 30% rebate for solar panels, billions in student loan forgiveness, etc.

RichSpecific4490

With interest rates this high he is absolutely right. There are benefits to owning a home but if you simply care about returns, a house sure as shit isn’t as good as the market. Make sure to educate yourself on all the costs associated with owning like HOA, taxes, roof replacement, window replacement, HVAC replacement, etc. the shit adds up so fast and eats so much profit.

joebraga2

There is another part of this discussion that makes the whole “Chinese auto industry vs American auto industry” framing much less clean than it sounds. Tesla itself is a good example. Tesla is American, but its battery supply chain has never been purely American. Panasonic was crucial to Tesla’s early scale, and Tesla later diversified its battery sourcing to companies including LG Energy Solution and CATL. So even the most successful American pure-EV manufacturer was built around a global, heavily Asian battery supply chain. Brazil makes this even more interesting because we are watching several versions of this industrial integration happen at the same time. BYD took over Ford’s former industrial complex in Camaçari and is progressively localizing production. GWM took over Mercedes-Benz’s former factory in Iracemápolis. Renault and Geely are expanding their industrial relationship in Brazil. GM itself is now assembling Chinese-developed Chevrolet EVs in Ceará. The Spark EUV and Captiva EV come from GM’s Chinese industrial ecosystem with SAIC and Wuling and are being assembled locally. Toyota and BYD have a 50/50 EV R&D joint venture. Nissan has had a major industrial relationship with Dongfeng in China for decades. At some point, asking whether a technology is simply “Chinese” or “Western” stops having an easy answer. And Brazil gives us another interesting experiment: range. If you look only at Brazilian homologation figures, some EVs can look surprisingly short-legged. Cars with batteries in the 50-60 kWh range can receive official Inmetro/PBEV range figures around 300 km. But the Brazilian number is deliberately conservative. Inmetro does not simply publish the raw laboratory result. Adjustment factors are applied to produce a more conservative real-world reference. The problem is that a lot of automotive discussion here then treats that number almost as the maximum distance the EV can realistically travel. Owner experience often looks very different. We now have EV owners driving these cars across Brazil, including mountainous areas and routes that climb from the coast onto the plateau. There are owners and independent tests substantially exceeding the official Inmetro range, and under favorable conditions some results get much closer to WLTP. Larger-battery EVs can exceed 400 km in real use even when their Brazilian homologated number looks much less impressive. Obviously that does not mean WLTP is guaranteed real-world range. Drive at 120 km/h, climb continuously, add headwind, temperature changes or heavy HVAC use and consumption changes dramatically. But this exposes an interesting asymmetry in how cars are discussed here. When a small 1.0-liter ICE car achieves an exceptionally good km/l result, automotive enthusiasts and media are perfectly happy to show what the car can achieve under favorable real-world conditions. With EVs, I often see the opposite. The conservative Inmetro figure gets repeated as the defining range of the vehicle, while owner consumption and independent road results receive much less attention. A much better way to discuss EV range is to show the homologation numbers and then show actual energy consumption. If an EV does 12, 15, 18 or 22 kWh/100 km, anyone can understand what a 40, 60 or 90 kWh battery means under different conditions. That's much more informative than saying “this is a 300 km car” because one homologation system printed 300 km on the label. And all of this comes back to the original Detroit question. Brazil is becoming a useful real-world laboratory because Chinese manufacturers are no longer simply shipping Chinese-built cars here. They are buying former Western factories, hiring Brazilian workers and progressively localizing production. At the same time, established American, European and Japanese manufacturers are increasingly using Chinese partners, platforms, batteries, engineering or complete vehicles. Europe is moving in a similar direction as Chinese manufacturers localize more production there. That gives us an opportunity to separate two things that are constantly mixed together in this discussion. If Chinese manufacturers lose most of their price advantage when they manufacture in Brazil, Europe or eventually the US with local workers, then Chinese wages, subsidies and domestic production conditions were clearly doing much of the work. But if a substantial advantage survives localization, then wages cannot be the entire explanation. Battery costs, vertical integration, EV-specific platforms, supplier organization, procurement, manufacturing scale, automation, development cycles and margins all have to enter the discussion. That's why I would actually find an American-built Chinese EV much more interesting than another imported Chinese EV. Require American production. American wages. American safety and environmental standards. Apply the same rules to everyone. Then compare the products. If an American-built BYD ends up costing roughly the same as an equivalent American-built GM or Ford, we learn something important about where the original Chinese cost advantage came from. But if it can still compete aggressively on price, equipment and efficiency while paying American production costs, then tariffs didn't answer the underlying competitiveness question. They only delayed the experiment.

Independent_theory8

As someone who works in the HVAC field, I can attest that they may have developed agreements but as with any other, it will only be carried out by those that care to. I have witnessed mechanics at car repair shops open bottles of recovered refrigerant to the atmosphere simply because they ran out of recovery bottles. You think countries like China or Mexico are worried about the atmosphere, not hardly.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Disaster Prep if AI wipes out humanity TL;DR: two weeks of supplies & a generator. Do not go further with a doomsday bunker or extreme prep beyond that. Anthropic says 10% chance AI can wipe humanity by the end of the decade. Financial assets, legal contracts, property ownership, and retirement models depend on a functioning, ongoing society. If an extinction event were to occur, everything you own would not hold the same value FIRE assumes that the world continues to exist and that normal life goes on. Preparing for the future financially only makes practical sense if there is a future to live in. To start with, follow the 72 hour to 2 week rule. Having two weeks of non-perishable food, 1 gallon of water per person (and pet) per day, a well-stocked first aid kit, flashlights, batteries, and essential medications. Consider a dual-fuel portable generator or a home battery backup, plus extra fuel storage, handles 95% of real-world emergencies Some cash on hand may be helpful, but could be worthless in this scenario. All of this should be no more than $3,000 with most of it going towards the generator. Taking emergency prep to the extreme such as buying an underground survival shelter, years of freeze-dried food buckets, or remote retreat land doesn't make a lot of sense. First, sinking all of that cash into +$100K bunker drains capital that could be compounding in investments. Underground bunkers require active HVAC, moisture control, air filtration, pump systems, and battery maintenance. Without constant upkeep, they mold, flood, and decay. In a true apocalyptic scenario, you're unlikely to defend your bunker & resources from other people that will try to take your resources. There is no law or property rights to protect you. **Real-world survival throughout history has always depended on local community, social capital, and mobility, not solitary confinement.**

miata_only

Is it true Europeans are selling off their US treasuries to fund purchases of whole house HVAC A/C systems?

ConferenceFull9068

The actionable part for stocks is to favor US companies in general. Cars made in the US, HVAC systems made in the US, appliances made in the US, etc. Could be foreign companies who have moved production to the US. How they intend to ensure it is spent in the US would be the detail to know; what's the enforcement mechanism. The word to focus in on is "dividend." Pres. Trump wants Americans (all Americans, note - not just Republican Americans) to see themselves as shareholders of a successful business called America.

SuperBrazilNuts

EV traction motors, wind turbines, industrial robots, HVAC compressors, appliance motors, consumer electronics, drones and defense all need rare earth magnets today. Worst case is a slow melt-up to the boom, but I don't think it will take that long. Kazatomprom and Paladin sound like interesting jobs :)

Blue-Ring-A-Ding

Initially… to the Canadian government, but… I am a Canadian rep of American manufactured HVAC equipment. I have orders submitted, in hand, and on the road. I will see how much the manufacturer will credit us. They may discount for good will and relationships. They may discount to avoid order cancellation. I will see how much I can pass down to the customer.  The rest, I will have to eat. For future orders I will list the tariffs as a separate line item. If they are still in place, the customer will have to pay.

Blue-Ring-A-Ding

I sell 2.5 million USD a year in American HVAC products in Canada. Now the American HVAC products will not be competitive. This will hurt US manufacturing jobs that rely on exports.

Blue-Ring-A-Ding

I sell about 2.5 million USD a year of American packaged HVAC units in Canada. Today, they have a 25% tariff on them. Some of it is on order, some in transit, some I have a purchase order for going though approvals. Many in my industry are in the same boat.

grandfatherdog

HVAC the next big hype ETF. Industrials are about to turn around and infrastructure and energy for actually getting data centers built is the next bottleneck.

Yogurt_Up_My_Nose

we're in HVAC and have been hiring nonstop for 2 years. it's crazy how many more people we need and we can't fill fast enough.

ChronicMasterBlazer

Exactly! And thanks man. Thinking HVAC or electrician

SpiderWil

Stop calling on dipshit stock like CLSK. My relative works for CLSK and he tells me they give him a machete to guard the data center while working as a HVAC/electrical maintenance guy. The company is super sketchy. Why don't u pay them a visit at **10624 S. Eastern Ave., Suite A-638, Henderson, NV 89052** Wait, u can't bc u can't even see the dam place from Google map.

RaccoonLongjumping27

why are people saying to invest in HVAC?

niwmo

You should invest in HVAC first.

Hellmale

Last summer I replaced my HVAC with Trane Variable system only $47k

A_Buttholes_Whisper

Electricity brought everything. HVAC, computers, lighting, etc. Ai brought…

yad76

Before budgeting for a huge out-of-pocket bill for something like an AC unit, be aware that 0% interest loans are very common for many home repairs. For example, my power utility will front a loan for a new HVAC system with 0% interest paid out over 7 years tacked onto your utility bill (with even better terms for low income). A lot of home improvement companies also partner with companies like Affirm on 0% interest loans or deferred payment plans. Obviously there are a lot of nuances involved and individual circumstances, but I'm just calling this out as there are potential alternatives to the typical rationalization of needing a large emergency fund due to the chance of large sudden expenses.

dogs_gt_cats

>HVAC companies send you a bill HVAC companies do not always send you a bill, some want payment immediately, especially if they need to buy expensive parts to repair things. It depends entirely on the business. Many small hvac companies and handimen don't have back offices to handle invoicing. For example the only Trane repair guy in our area that answers his phone is a single person with no office or billing staff. He expects payment same day. > Even if they didn't, you can easily go to the local hardware store and buy either a window AC unit or a radiant space heater depending on why your HVAC breaking That covers two types of issue. That doesn't help you if your air handler springs a leak and does a ton of water damage that requires immediate intervention. Or your furnace dies, taking your hot water heater with it and your whole home has no hot water, and you're risking your pipes freezing. There are myriad ways for things to break. I've been a homeowner for close to 20 years now. Emergencies take many forms, and I've learned not to make assumptions about who will/won't be available to help, and how they will/won't accept payment. In the past 2 months I've had about 12k in emergencies (3 major vehicle repairs one after the other, medical issues with our kid, and an HVAC issue where a water sensor kept triggering and shorting our air handler due to a drain clog). About 1 month before that we had a similar issue to what I described above, where the burner on our furnace wouldn't work, leaving us with no hot water for close to 2 weeks. Generally when emergencies happen, they tend to cluster together for some reason. For both hvac issues, we had to pay cash for parts. Anyways, personally, I keep 1 month of spending in a liquid emergency fund in a HYSA, and then keep 6 months worth of "deep emergency fund" in a position in SGOV. If an immediate emergency requires a cash payment I can borrow from another budget for a few days until a sale from our deep emergency fund can replace it. HYSA yields 3%, SGOV is around 3.7%.

Ethanop1a

HVAC companies send you a bill. They often also offer 0% short term loans for the large replacement services. Even if they didn't, you can easily go to the local hardware store and buy either a window AC unit or a radiant space heater depending on why your HVAC breaking is such an emergency that you can't hire a company that takes card or wait a few days for brokerage money. You'd have to wait for a transfer out of HYSA anyways. Are you keeping your emergency fund in a checking account? Maybe we have different ideas of size of emergency. I can cover several thousand out of pocket. We're talking about that "6 months of spending" emergency fund.

dogs_gt_cats

Several HVAC companies in our area will not accept credit card. Small business handimen who don't have credit card processors. I'm saying this because we have had multiple emergencies where the vendors *do not* take credit, which is specifically why we keep a 1 month buffer of bills on hand specifically to mitigate such issues.

Commercial_Square774

Put it in a high yield saving amount. That’s a fine amount. Some cash is good especially if you have kids or if you own a home. Things like HVAC, your roof, braces can be expensive and having the cash there is good. I’m not sure where the line is, but $40k to $50k is where I’m typically comfortable.

31andnotdone

We're gonna have 2 dogs, a cat and an HVAC repair truck in the driveway. 🩷

mightyblend

I've been looking at HVAC stuff. What about AAON do you find attractive?

mightyblend

Annoying. I've been looking at HVAC-related services in general lately and I probably would have thrown a little coin at this if I had seen it.

enc-nyc

My great trading career is probably ending soon since I plan to maybe try local HVAC union. Pay is shitty first yer, like 19 and hour but it increases and benefits are great. 5 years commitment. Pros / Cons?

Three_Fifth

I really like FERG. Report tomorrow and the HVAC side of the business is likely a leader. I have 15k dry powder and am thinking of a full port at the open

FeverTreeCloud

They are gonna buy fans bruh. Most houses and apartments are too old to retrofit HVAC without major rework. Europoors can’t afford that and non poors already have AC

MegaWeinerFarts

Bob's Plumbing and HVAC repair, utilizing deep learning AI LLM's in order to pioneer the frontier of home air/water/sewage through tokenization and Retrieval-Augmented Generation optimization blockchain AI Agent Multimodal Prompt Engineering.

ricincali

Half of those Fed governors wanted it raised. Be glad he is vocal about it because consumer credit standards are really, really tight and it is killing people in residential construction, HVAC, home improvement and more. Secondary credit for people below 650 is already almost non-existent and higher rates exacerbate an already difficult situation. Thank God they were afraid enough of him that they didn’t raise….

OhBenjaminFranklin

I should go into the HVAC repair business. The amount they charge these days is insane.

Winterough

HVAC equipment is all coming from China now. 5 years ago you couldn’t buy a Chinese made piece of equipment, but now it’s flooding the market and Lennox/Carrier are losing their grip on the market. When bathtubs and toilet paper start coming from China the cycle will be complete.

BuffaloSabresFan

This is going to happen again in 2038. I remember at my old job talking about it because the HVAC controller was vulnerable to this and the owners reply was not my problem, I'll; be dead by then.

L3g3ndary-08

To think that ram, SSD/HDD and GPUs combined cost more than it does to obtain permitting grade the land, pour foundation, erect the external and internal structures, plus the engineered equipment, such as switch gears, pumps, HVAC units, water treatment equipment, valves, flanges, nuts, bolts, anchors, racks, etc, etc, etc, will farr out way the cost of these "assets" that depreciate and need replacement..the debt is fueling the capex dumbass..... Peak stupidity right here.

bobdevnul

3400-1300-300=1800 of take home left after those expenses. What about other expenses - food, clothing, car gas, car maintenance, insurances, phone bill, vacations, etc.? Do you need a budget to understand how much disposable income you have to save for the down payment? The answer to that is yes. Saving for goals of less than ten years is best done in fixed income investments - HYSA, broker money market fund, short term bond fund. Right now you can expect to earn about a 4% yield on those. Using the 1800 a month disposable income (which is unrealistic) and 4% yield that could grow to $117K in five years. It is highly unlikely that you actually have 1800 a month to invest. To get to $40K in five years with 4% growth you need to save/invest about $625 a month. You actually need somewhat more than that because you will have to pay income tax on the income from the investment. $625 a month saved probably isn't unrealistic if you live frugally, but not miserly, with mindful spending on needs, not wants. $40K is 20% of a $200K home purchase. Are there homes in your area in that price range? There are not in many areas. Look into home prices. Understand what your disposable income is or could be. Use a compound growth calculator to understand how monthly savings will accumulate with growth. [https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator](https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator) Also understand that as a homeowner you will be responsible for all maintenance. The mortgage payment will include property tax and home insurance. Everything else is on you. A roof or HVAC replacement needs to be taken care of right now. Those can easily be $15K each when they happen. You will need to be able to save for home maintenance in addition to the mortgage payment. Good luck

Fatigued-insomniac

Most of their basic needs are met, except maybe having HVAC systems. They can go on vacation and aren't worried about going into debt from a broken bone. just spitballing, but this is my best guess.

Next-Sentence-8426

Poor poor don't have an HVAC guy

Deep_Calls_007

My AC is not working. So, the HVAC guy came in and placed a portable AC in my house until it gets fixed, which is also not working. >!👍!<

Worldly-Glass1856

I mean it's a classic Musk move, sell the sci-fi dream first and hope engineering catches up later. You're spot on about the thermal issue, vacuum is a fantastic insulator which is the last thing you want when dumping heat from a server farm. The radiator arrays needed would be comical, like city-sized panels that'd make the ISS look like a popsicle stick. That IPO deck had to be pure hopium for anyone who's ever built a PC, let alone dealt with a datacenter's HVAC load.

PringlesDuckFace

I work in FAANG+ (if you extend the acronym a few more letters I'm in there somewhere) and know lots of FAANG people. I wouldn't be surprised if you met some real morons, or people who let greed cloud their judgement. We're not all some sect of super geniuses despite what Elon Musk wants to make people think. We're just normal people that just happened to develop a set of skills where demand was higher than supply, and that demand is also luckily by companies with huge amounts of cash. If Air Conditioning was a 10 Trillion dollar industry instead of tech, would be be idolizing HVAC engineers? Just like any group of people most of us are dumber than average, and there are of course some actual super geniuses at the high end. But generally we're just people who got the right degree, interview well, and are lucky enough to live or be able to relocate to the Bay Area or other FAANG hubs.

ra__account

Bro, I assure you that I'm far from broke. I bought 12 years ago for $200K. The property is now worth ~$400K and I owe less than $50K on the mortgage. Renting an equivalent house would be 250-300% of what I'm paying for the mortgage/taxes/insurance. I've replaced the roof, water heater, and HVAC plus some groundskeeping for a total cost of less than $30K. But please do continue to tell me how paying 2.5-3x to rent is to my benefit.

Emergency_Cicada3119

Two things. Rent represents the highest I will pay in living expenses for a given month. A mortgage represents the lowest. My HVAC could go out 2 months into buying a house and I am liable. I understand what you are saying about comparing comparable dwellings. But it’s nuanced. Look of if I could find a 1 or 2 bedroom house that’s 1000+ sq feet and renovated I would. But that’s not realistic. So I agree it is a little difficult to compare a traditional 3 bed home with a 1/2 bedroom townhome or apartment.

SilentJerrySpringer

We could design some really neat DCs of we didnt have to factor in human health/comfort. With most cutting edge systems going liquid cooled, you only need a small amount of HVAC for the residual heat.

Beneficial_Past_1957

It's actually kind of funny that house construction costs would be very similar for that size and one that's larger because the majority of costs are fixed prices that don't change based on the size, like HVAC, electrical, appliances, plumbing, etc. 

Sufficient_Habit5091

NYC just had it's hottest morning ever. *LaGuardia was 94°... at midnight.* Meanwhile AI bros keep endlessly pressuring Fed to print more and more fake money. All while even coders are sounding the alarm on how wasteful frontier models like Claude are. Buy HVAC stocks, international, gold and start planning your exit out of US assets. Country is cooked.

teslaTools

Fair point but trades are also right there. Welding, electrician, HVAC apprenticeship pays you to learn. 18 with $1600/mo and no debt is a solid spot to pick

Salt_Contract342

HVAC?

Samsonlp

HVAC work is awesome. Also so working in a kitchen and get demo jobs or HVAC jobs. Demolishing buildings teaches you how things are built

HoneyBadger552

no. i will be happy with ELFY or XLU or AIPO. these places and new/existing homes need electrical upgrades. Europe is roasting w little HVAC penetration. electrical infrastructure upgrades are coming

ExoticEditor9592

their main thing is relays and smart plugs and sensors you stick in the wall, not full HVAC units. you could use their stuff to control an AC unit though, like a smart plug that turns a window unit on and off based on temp or schedule they lean more toward the guts of a building than the appliances themselves. works over wifi and doesn't need some central hub which is kinda the appeal

dwoj206

we buying HVAC companies now? not sure the AI trade has extended that far. What's your blackhole app say about $WEN?

HoneyBadger552

they are not. Its broiling hot in Europe w AC penetration less than 25%. time to install HVAC

LanceX2

its a 12 month one but its also a sinking fund if I need new HVAC or Roof with plenty left over. not sure why its funny lol

mohelgamal

That is exactly the problem, building data centers on the ground is mind bogglingly expensive, and the operating costs are just bonkers Take for example Microsoft/open Ai build out in west Texas (stargate/ Kilby) For a total of 2.7 gigawatt of compute, They are expecting something like 8-12 billion in building and land costs, 2-4 internal infrastructure for HVAC, another 8-10 billion for gas turbines to provide electricity, and 1-2 billion in additional in power lines, water pipes and whatever else to interconnect with the local grid. Then you would have the running costs of facility management, security, and the gas required that comes at fluctuating costs that depend on which middle eastern despot is misbehaving at the time. But just the starting cost is a minimum of $16-25 before you account for the chips themselves and excluding any cost over runs that tends to plague these projects On the other hand, using the 120kw per 2ton satellite, you would need 450 starship launches to deploy 2700 satellites to match the same capacity. Each launch is predict to cost $10 million on reusable ships so $4.5 billion in launch costs, and if the manufacture the satellites at $500k a pop (excluding chips) then you are around the same cost without having to worry about ongoing NG fuel costs and property taxes and what not

OpeDefinitely

There \*are\* a couple one-man-band type HVAC techs who are bonded & whatnot. Those HVAC guys do not have the licenses to pull permits in my city. Regulatory capture by big HVAC/private equity. Theoretically doesn't matter until/unless the house gets inspected for some other reason (HELOC assessment, sale, whatever.) Or I guess if the city sees the outside condenser with their own eyes. They can't force their way inside though.

DandierChip

There’s gotta be at least one quality HVAC tech in your area no??

OpeDefinitely

I want to add a mini split to my garage & be prepared for when the house's central HVAC - which is geothermal - starts breaking down. I am a (partial) homeowner of the house I live in. But because the house is titled in the name of a trust, I cannot pull permits as a homeowner. For complicated tax reasons, there's no real way to remove the house from the trust. If I took a year of community college classes for HVAC, I still wouldn't be able to pull permits: you need 5 years of HVAC experience to get the license needed to pull permits. And there's no real way to get a licensed HVAC tech to pull the permit and oversee your work unless I switch careers. Retarded situation. Only real options are to go rouge or pay private equity owned HVAC companies that charge $250/hour for pimple faced kids who do sloppy work and make $25/hour.

creepy-farter

Bought a Bank owned foreclosure (Bank REO)slightly over 10 years ago. It had been damaged inside from a storm. But it was a block from the beach and we could see the potential. We negotiated the bank down by a lot as they wanted it gone by year end. The inspection we were allowed was kind of a joke as no power and water was off. Couldn’t test the HVAC. Got lucky, most major systems worked. Replaced doors and fixed the ceiling leaks. Painted redecorated and have been renting it during summers so that it pays for itself. We use it in the off season , and maybe on week in the summer max. In the meantime house prices for beach properties exploded. So it’s tripled from what we paid.

Skilledthunder

Why the fuck am i having to explain what setpoints are to an HVAC technician instead of watching my charts?!

ZYHUA

you don't use HVAC to save a few bucks, just to lose it in the stock market? amazing

RJ5R

you don';t want to invest in a HVAC company?

Crackbot420-69

In case I ever want to look back from the future and remember where I was on IPO day: Today I am balls deep in an HVAC company that has the same letters as SpaceX’s ticker.

tim_hanby

BUY **SPXC** (a North Carolina HVAC company) [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/) People will fat-finger the purchases and miss spacex today.

tim_hanby

BUY **SPXC** (North Carolina HVAC company) [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/)

tim_hanby

Buy **SPXC** shares. Apparently some HVAC company? People will mistype.

tim_hanby

Have you bought **SPXC** ? This is the trillion dollar valuation HVAC company btw [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/)

That-Account6064

everyone needs HVAC especially with the new codes nowadays.

bobby_stackz

Make sure you guys load up on spxc since people will thinks it's space x when it's just an HVAC company

OShaughnessy

Looking at these schematics is troublesome: https://lt350.com. Closely packing GPUs, BESS, etc. inches under solar panels that get 85° C/170°F without addressing where the HVAC infrastructure fits or the costs coming out should make us pause.

OShaughnessy

> Looking at these schematics is troublesome: https://lt350.com. Closely packing GPUs, BESS, etc. inches under solar panels that get 85° C/170°F without addressing where the HVAC infrastructure fits or the costs of it should make us pause.

OShaughnessy

Here's my quick mafs on the business, yeah? ### They say: | They Say | Quick Mafs | | -------- | ---------- | | Each canopy = 2,000 sq ft | 4M sq ft ÷ 2,000 sq ft = 2,000 canopies possible | | Each canopy holds 480 GPUs | 2,000 canopies × 480 GPUs = 960,000 GPUs total | | GPU rental = ~$30,488/year | 960,000 × $30,488 = $29B/year (TAM) | ### What's gotta happen: | What They Need | Reality Check | | -------------- | ------------- | | Sign binding REIT contract | Currently has non-binding LOI (could walk away) | | Build 2,000 canopies | 0 canopies built, 0 GPUs deployed, 0 revenue | | Buy 960,000 GPUs | GPUs cost $28-58 BILLION total | | Power all GPUs from solar | 480 GPUs need 80,000+ sq ft solar (canopy only 2,000 sq ft) | | Get paying customers | No contracts, no revenue, unproven business | | Stop burning $5M/year on audio | Current business loses $5M annually | ### Them vs. Laws governing our universe | What They Claim | Physical Reality | | --------------- | ---------------- | | 2,000 sq ft canopy fits 480 GPUs | 480 GPUs need 80,000+ sq ft of solar panels (40x bigger) | | Solar powers 480 GPUs | 480 GPUs need 0.42 MW; canopy produces 0.1 MW (4x too little) | | $29B annualized revenue | $0 revenue, 0 GPUs, 0 canopies, non-binding LOI | | "Zero-water liquid cooling" outdoors | 480 GPUs need industrial HVAC (this adds $millions$ in costs and can't fit in the canopy) | | Cooling costs included in rental | Cooling 480 GPUs = $hundreds of thousands$+/year per canopy (uncalculable?, not in model) | | "Power-sovereign" datacenter | Needs $millions$ in BESS + grid backup for 24/7 operation | | $250M DCF valuation | Current $6.9M cap = betting on all this math turning real | Bottom line: The TAM, as stated now, is physically impossible. Happy to hear a counter / where my calcs are off. Make of this what you will.

ToastSpangler

Zero cool is the wunderchild telling us there will be no cool spots. 1+5 = 6, 0+7 = 7, 6 7, year of the 6 7, 2026 Calls on HVAC and AC

RJ5R

"Just go into the trades" only works if your plan is to start your own trade business. While some mechanics are paid well, most are paid shit wages due to job rates compensation structure. The mechanics who start their own shops, is where it pays off. Most dealerships and even medium size shops, work their mechanics into the ground though and wage theft from them with job rate pay structure. And the mechanic has 0 say in what jobs they get. Ford has a big recall and the repair job pays 2 hrs by FMC but takes actually 4 hrs? Too bad, it means the mechanic will get paid for only 4 hrs of work for a 8 hrs day and there's nothing they can do about it. In some cases, it comes out to less than minimum wage. And on top of that, you are responsible for purchasing and maintaining all of your tools. Becoming a fully licensed electrician that makes "the big bucks", takes the same if not more years than getting a college degree (and most don't make the "big bucks"). Where becoming an electrician pays off, is starting your own independent electrician company and not being a time clock puncher for another company. Residential HVAC and plumbing is basically a gutter and I would avoid. I do recommend commercial HVAC and refrigeration though. I will highly recommend going into the trades only with a caveat - joining a trade union where your labor rights are fully protected. You get a good hourly wage, proper OT, full medical/dental (including in retirement), disability insurance, vacation/sick time, pension/retirement, and many other things. And you get to retire at 55 in the trade unions in this area as long as you have at least 10 yrs in. And yes you can be a mechanic and be in a union. Municipal government and transit authority repair depots mechanics are union. And the post office also has union mechanics for maintaining the postal truck fleets, along with union field workers who do repairs in post offices

oswaldcopperpot

You can roll your own LLM or specific AI using open source tools right now. Or you can use already available general AI's via APIs. Programmers already use text editors with built in access to all the main AI's. Pissed off about literally no one making food at your Popeyes? Well humanoid robots are finally going to replace whatever bullshit employees they usually hire. I rebuilt my HVAC system using nothing but chatgpt and parts off amazon. Saving like 20k. Used it for investments and made 4x my salary in a year. People that thing AI is in a bubble are the types of people that are going to be made irrelevant by AI itself. Which is kinda funny.

NoFutureIn21Century

Your thesis is too complicated. Just buy HVAC and ice cream manufacturers. Hot weather = people want cool stuff

Sendalath

HVAC/ plumbing/hearing company

DavidThi303

I didn't say that. It takes 5 - 7 years to get approval for HVAC lines. To run power to a data center.

Sufficient_Habit5091

Honestly, buy HVAC services. I think costs are going to skyrocket with inflation even without the earth warming.

DavidThi303

It takes 5 - 7 years to get approval for new HVAC lines. The construction is somewhat fast but the permitting is awful. Same for getting approval for gas turbines in a lot of states. Many states are 100% committed to solar/wind/batteries for more power.

DavidThi303

Yes but... The manufacturers of gas turbines & transformers are not increasing production a lot because they're afraid demand will suddenly drop and they're left holding the bag. But that is the easier part. Getting permitting - that takes time. It generally requires 5 - 7 years to get approval for HVAC lines. As to turbines, good luck getting approval for those in the states dedicated to renewal energy. And people are pushing back that they don't want solar farms, wind farms, or data centers in their back yard. Hundreds of projects have been stopped because of local opposition.

Echo-Possible

1. Natural gas is plentiful and very cheap in the US. 2. They have a much harder problem cooling in space. You need massive expensive radiators to dissipate heat. Also, new AI data centers use very little water for cooling as they are "closed loop" systems. 3. What??? They absolutely need permitting approval for constellation. They are governed and restricted by the FCC's approvals. 4. Yes, but they will have much longer delays waiting for viable satellites to be built and launched. By then, gas turbine generators will be much easier to come by. 5. HVAC is not a problem for data centers lol. 6. No, it doesn't.

DavidThi303

1. They can be powered by solar 24/7/365 2. No need for water for cooling 3. No delays to get permitting approval 4. No delays waiting for gas turbine generators to be built. 5. No need to run HVAC lines. 6. The list goes on...

DavidThi303

Different equipment. No need for gas turbine generators. No need for giant transformers to convert that generated electricity. No need for HVAC lines. No need for natural gas lines run to the turbines.

No-Transportation843

I've lived near vibration and noise pollution before and it was hell. I could feel it in my body at night, 24/7, and was stressed and getting unhealthy. We moved because of it. But we lived across the river from an industrial area and the factories were running some kind of manufacturing. That was our fault for moving there. The factories were off during COVID so we didn't realize what it would be like.  If data centers do the same, I get why people wouldn't want to live near one. But I thought it was pretty easy to run industrial HVAC and data centers shouldn't be in residential areas anyway. The high frequency fans wouldn't create the same low frequency vibration through the ground that i experienced 

Bartybum

And the huge fuckoff noise problem of the HVAC systems going 24/7

hanr86

Here's what I found: Noise & Vibration Pollution: Constant, low-frequency hums and vibrations from thousands of cooling fans and HVAC systems run 24/7. This noise can cause severe sleep disruption, chronic headaches, vertigo, tinnitus, and elevated stress levels. Air Pollution: Many data centers rely on dozens of massive diesel generators for backup or primary power. Exhaust and nitrogen oxide (\(NO_{x}\)) emissions from these generators are linked to respiratory issues, increased asthma rates, and cardiovascular disease. Light Pollution: Massive data centers require bright exterior lighting all night long. This constant illumination can disrupt natural circadian rhythms and suppress melatonin production, making it difficult to maintain a healthy sleep cycle.Increased Utility Costs: Because data centers consume as much electricity as a small city, surrounding energy grids often face massive strain. Communities frequently experience higher utility bills to help pay for grid expansions and localized rate hikes.

WorkingGuy99percent

They also said they expect 2027 CAPEX to be more than 2026’s CAPEX. Let that sink in. Companies that make things (chips, stacks, buildings, HVAC, buildings, things that make buildings, cables, etc) are going to be running up thru next year. These companies that will be selling all that buildout will be printing money 2027 onward as well. Building retiring in 5 years new positions now.

Dihedralman

HVAC retailler before the largest El Nino in ages? 

Lavio00

A HVAC compounder trading at 20x earnings, growing 17% y/y and guiding for 25%+ topline growth… with ttm EPS growth of 15%… net leverage of about 1x…  Yeah, sounds a bit too vanilla for this degen sub. 

tke248

MOD — cooling / thermal management — **A-**. This is probably one of the better adds in the thread. Smaller than VRT, but the $4B Airedale data-center cooling agreement and 158% quarterly data-center growth make it a real AI factory shovel, not just generic HVAC.

tke248

MOD — cooling / thermal management — **A- / B+**. Strong add. Airedale by Modine puts them directly in high-density data-center cooling, and the recent data-center cooling contract makes it much cleaner than generic HVAC.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

Primary_Hour_9527

Isn't that like 90% of everything these days? Body Shops, HVAC companies, Storage Units, etc.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Someone posted a DD on an HVAC company yesterday

CryptoRossi

Given all the global warnings for “El Nino” I’m thinking will there be a run on HVAC/Aircon, Water commds, generator/energy sector to power through it? Examples: Trane Technologies Carrier Generac Valmont