HVAC

Next-Sentence-8426

Poor poor don't have an HVAC guy

Deep_Calls_007

My AC is not working. So, the HVAC guy came in and placed a portable AC in my house until it gets fixed, which is also not working. >!👍!<

Worldly-Glass1856

I mean it's a classic Musk move, sell the sci-fi dream first and hope engineering catches up later. You're spot on about the thermal issue, vacuum is a fantastic insulator which is the last thing you want when dumping heat from a server farm. The radiator arrays needed would be comical, like city-sized panels that'd make the ISS look like a popsicle stick. That IPO deck had to be pure hopium for anyone who's ever built a PC, let alone dealt with a datacenter's HVAC load.

PringlesDuckFace

I work in FAANG+ (if you extend the acronym a few more letters I'm in there somewhere) and know lots of FAANG people. I wouldn't be surprised if you met some real morons, or people who let greed cloud their judgement. We're not all some sect of super geniuses despite what Elon Musk wants to make people think. We're just normal people that just happened to develop a set of skills where demand was higher than supply, and that demand is also luckily by companies with huge amounts of cash. If Air Conditioning was a 10 Trillion dollar industry instead of tech, would be be idolizing HVAC engineers? Just like any group of people most of us are dumber than average, and there are of course some actual super geniuses at the high end. But generally we're just people who got the right degree, interview well, and are lucky enough to live or be able to relocate to the Bay Area or other FAANG hubs.

ra__account

Bro, I assure you that I'm far from broke. I bought 12 years ago for $200K. The property is now worth ~$400K and I owe less than $50K on the mortgage. Renting an equivalent house would be 250-300% of what I'm paying for the mortgage/taxes/insurance. I've replaced the roof, water heater, and HVAC plus some groundskeeping for a total cost of less than $30K. But please do continue to tell me how paying 2.5-3x to rent is to my benefit.

Emergency_Cicada3119

Two things. Rent represents the highest I will pay in living expenses for a given month. A mortgage represents the lowest. My HVAC could go out 2 months into buying a house and I am liable. I understand what you are saying about comparing comparable dwellings. But it’s nuanced. Look of if I could find a 1 or 2 bedroom house that’s 1000+ sq feet and renovated I would. But that’s not realistic. So I agree it is a little difficult to compare a traditional 3 bed home with a 1/2 bedroom townhome or apartment.

SilentJerrySpringer

We could design some really neat DCs of we didnt have to factor in human health/comfort. With most cutting edge systems going liquid cooled, you only need a small amount of HVAC for the residual heat.

Beneficial_Past_1957

It's actually kind of funny that house construction costs would be very similar for that size and one that's larger because the majority of costs are fixed prices that don't change based on the size, like HVAC, electrical, appliances, plumbing, etc. 

Sufficient_Habit5091

NYC just had it's hottest morning ever. *LaGuardia was 94°... at midnight.* Meanwhile AI bros keep endlessly pressuring Fed to print more and more fake money. All while even coders are sounding the alarm on how wasteful frontier models like Claude are. Buy HVAC stocks, international, gold and start planning your exit out of US assets. Country is cooked.

teslaTools

Fair point but trades are also right there. Welding, electrician, HVAC apprenticeship pays you to learn. 18 with $1600/mo and no debt is a solid spot to pick

Salt_Contract342

HVAC?

Samsonlp

HVAC work is awesome. Also so working in a kitchen and get demo jobs or HVAC jobs. Demolishing buildings teaches you how things are built

HoneyBadger552

no. i will be happy with ELFY or XLU or AIPO. these places and new/existing homes need electrical upgrades. Europe is roasting w little HVAC penetration. electrical infrastructure upgrades are coming

ExoticEditor9592

their main thing is relays and smart plugs and sensors you stick in the wall, not full HVAC units. you could use their stuff to control an AC unit though, like a smart plug that turns a window unit on and off based on temp or schedule they lean more toward the guts of a building than the appliances themselves. works over wifi and doesn't need some central hub which is kinda the appeal

dwoj206

we buying HVAC companies now? not sure the AI trade has extended that far. What's your blackhole app say about $WEN?

HoneyBadger552

they are not. Its broiling hot in Europe w AC penetration less than 25%. time to install HVAC

LanceX2

its a 12 month one but its also a sinking fund if I need new HVAC or Roof with plenty left over. not sure why its funny lol

mohelgamal

That is exactly the problem, building data centers on the ground is mind bogglingly expensive, and the operating costs are just bonkers Take for example Microsoft/open Ai build out in west Texas (stargate/ Kilby) For a total of 2.7 gigawatt of compute, They are expecting something like 8-12 billion in building and land costs, 2-4 internal infrastructure for HVAC, another 8-10 billion for gas turbines to provide electricity, and 1-2 billion in additional in power lines, water pipes and whatever else to interconnect with the local grid. Then you would have the running costs of facility management, security, and the gas required that comes at fluctuating costs that depend on which middle eastern despot is misbehaving at the time. But just the starting cost is a minimum of $16-25 before you account for the chips themselves and excluding any cost over runs that tends to plague these projects On the other hand, using the 120kw per 2ton satellite, you would need 450 starship launches to deploy 2700 satellites to match the same capacity. Each launch is predict to cost $10 million on reusable ships so $4.5 billion in launch costs, and if the manufacture the satellites at $500k a pop (excluding chips) then you are around the same cost without having to worry about ongoing NG fuel costs and property taxes and what not

OpeDefinitely

There \*are\* a couple one-man-band type HVAC techs who are bonded & whatnot. Those HVAC guys do not have the licenses to pull permits in my city. Regulatory capture by big HVAC/private equity. Theoretically doesn't matter until/unless the house gets inspected for some other reason (HELOC assessment, sale, whatever.) Or I guess if the city sees the outside condenser with their own eyes. They can't force their way inside though.

DandierChip

There’s gotta be at least one quality HVAC tech in your area no??

OpeDefinitely

I want to add a mini split to my garage & be prepared for when the house's central HVAC - which is geothermal - starts breaking down. I am a (partial) homeowner of the house I live in. But because the house is titled in the name of a trust, I cannot pull permits as a homeowner. For complicated tax reasons, there's no real way to remove the house from the trust. If I took a year of community college classes for HVAC, I still wouldn't be able to pull permits: you need 5 years of HVAC experience to get the license needed to pull permits. And there's no real way to get a licensed HVAC tech to pull the permit and oversee your work unless I switch careers. Retarded situation. Only real options are to go rouge or pay private equity owned HVAC companies that charge $250/hour for pimple faced kids who do sloppy work and make $25/hour.

creepy-farter

Bought a Bank owned foreclosure (Bank REO)slightly over 10 years ago. It had been damaged inside from a storm. But it was a block from the beach and we could see the potential. We negotiated the bank down by a lot as they wanted it gone by year end. The inspection we were allowed was kind of a joke as no power and water was off. Couldn’t test the HVAC. Got lucky, most major systems worked. Replaced doors and fixed the ceiling leaks. Painted redecorated and have been renting it during summers so that it pays for itself. We use it in the off season , and maybe on week in the summer max. In the meantime house prices for beach properties exploded. So it’s tripled from what we paid.

Skilledthunder

Why the fuck am i having to explain what setpoints are to an HVAC technician instead of watching my charts?!

ZYHUA

you don't use HVAC to save a few bucks, just to lose it in the stock market? amazing

RJ5R

you don';t want to invest in a HVAC company?

Crackbot420-69

In case I ever want to look back from the future and remember where I was on IPO day: Today I am balls deep in an HVAC company that has the same letters as SpaceX’s ticker.

tim_hanby

BUY **SPXC** (a North Carolina HVAC company) [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/) People will fat-finger the purchases and miss spacex today.

tim_hanby

BUY **SPXC** (North Carolina HVAC company) [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/)

tim_hanby

Buy **SPXC** shares. Apparently some HVAC company? People will mistype.

tim_hanby

Have you bought **SPXC** ? This is the trillion dollar valuation HVAC company btw [https://spx.com/](https://spx.com/)

That-Account6064

everyone needs HVAC especially with the new codes nowadays.

bobby_stackz

Make sure you guys load up on spxc since people will thinks it's space x when it's just an HVAC company

OShaughnessy

Looking at these schematics is troublesome: https://lt350.com. Closely packing GPUs, BESS, etc. inches under solar panels that get 85° C/170°F without addressing where the HVAC infrastructure fits or the costs coming out should make us pause.

OShaughnessy

> Looking at these schematics is troublesome: https://lt350.com. Closely packing GPUs, BESS, etc. inches under solar panels that get 85° C/170°F without addressing where the HVAC infrastructure fits or the costs of it should make us pause.

OShaughnessy

Here's my quick mafs on the business, yeah? ### They say: | They Say | Quick Mafs | | -------- | ---------- | | Each canopy = 2,000 sq ft | 4M sq ft ÷ 2,000 sq ft = 2,000 canopies possible | | Each canopy holds 480 GPUs | 2,000 canopies × 480 GPUs = 960,000 GPUs total | | GPU rental = ~$30,488/year | 960,000 × $30,488 = $29B/year (TAM) | ### What's gotta happen: | What They Need | Reality Check | | -------------- | ------------- | | Sign binding REIT contract | Currently has non-binding LOI (could walk away) | | Build 2,000 canopies | 0 canopies built, 0 GPUs deployed, 0 revenue | | Buy 960,000 GPUs | GPUs cost $28-58 BILLION total | | Power all GPUs from solar | 480 GPUs need 80,000+ sq ft solar (canopy only 2,000 sq ft) | | Get paying customers | No contracts, no revenue, unproven business | | Stop burning $5M/year on audio | Current business loses $5M annually | ### Them vs. Laws governing our universe | What They Claim | Physical Reality | | --------------- | ---------------- | | 2,000 sq ft canopy fits 480 GPUs | 480 GPUs need 80,000+ sq ft of solar panels (40x bigger) | | Solar powers 480 GPUs | 480 GPUs need 0.42 MW; canopy produces 0.1 MW (4x too little) | | $29B annualized revenue | $0 revenue, 0 GPUs, 0 canopies, non-binding LOI | | "Zero-water liquid cooling" outdoors | 480 GPUs need industrial HVAC (this adds $millions$ in costs and can't fit in the canopy) | | Cooling costs included in rental | Cooling 480 GPUs = $hundreds of thousands$+/year per canopy (uncalculable?, not in model) | | "Power-sovereign" datacenter | Needs $millions$ in BESS + grid backup for 24/7 operation | | $250M DCF valuation | Current $6.9M cap = betting on all this math turning real | Bottom line: The TAM, as stated now, is physically impossible. Happy to hear a counter / where my calcs are off. Make of this what you will.

ToastSpangler

Zero cool is the wunderchild telling us there will be no cool spots. 1+5 = 6, 0+7 = 7, 6 7, year of the 6 7, 2026 Calls on HVAC and AC

RJ5R

"Just go into the trades" only works if your plan is to start your own trade business. While some mechanics are paid well, most are paid shit wages due to job rates compensation structure. The mechanics who start their own shops, is where it pays off. Most dealerships and even medium size shops, work their mechanics into the ground though and wage theft from them with job rate pay structure. And the mechanic has 0 say in what jobs they get. Ford has a big recall and the repair job pays 2 hrs by FMC but takes actually 4 hrs? Too bad, it means the mechanic will get paid for only 4 hrs of work for a 8 hrs day and there's nothing they can do about it. In some cases, it comes out to less than minimum wage. And on top of that, you are responsible for purchasing and maintaining all of your tools. Becoming a fully licensed electrician that makes "the big bucks", takes the same if not more years than getting a college degree (and most don't make the "big bucks"). Where becoming an electrician pays off, is starting your own independent electrician company and not being a time clock puncher for another company. Residential HVAC and plumbing is basically a gutter and I would avoid. I do recommend commercial HVAC and refrigeration though. I will highly recommend going into the trades only with a caveat - joining a trade union where your labor rights are fully protected. You get a good hourly wage, proper OT, full medical/dental (including in retirement), disability insurance, vacation/sick time, pension/retirement, and many other things. And you get to retire at 55 in the trade unions in this area as long as you have at least 10 yrs in. And yes you can be a mechanic and be in a union. Municipal government and transit authority repair depots mechanics are union. And the post office also has union mechanics for maintaining the postal truck fleets, along with union field workers who do repairs in post offices

oswaldcopperpot

You can roll your own LLM or specific AI using open source tools right now. Or you can use already available general AI's via APIs. Programmers already use text editors with built in access to all the main AI's. Pissed off about literally no one making food at your Popeyes? Well humanoid robots are finally going to replace whatever bullshit employees they usually hire. I rebuilt my HVAC system using nothing but chatgpt and parts off amazon. Saving like 20k. Used it for investments and made 4x my salary in a year. People that thing AI is in a bubble are the types of people that are going to be made irrelevant by AI itself. Which is kinda funny.

NoFutureIn21Century

Your thesis is too complicated. Just buy HVAC and ice cream manufacturers. Hot weather = people want cool stuff

Sendalath

HVAC/ plumbing/hearing company

DavidThi303

I didn't say that. It takes 5 - 7 years to get approval for HVAC lines. To run power to a data center.

Sufficient_Habit5091

Honestly, buy HVAC services. I think costs are going to skyrocket with inflation even without the earth warming.

DavidThi303

It takes 5 - 7 years to get approval for new HVAC lines. The construction is somewhat fast but the permitting is awful. Same for getting approval for gas turbines in a lot of states. Many states are 100% committed to solar/wind/batteries for more power.

DavidThi303

Yes but... The manufacturers of gas turbines & transformers are not increasing production a lot because they're afraid demand will suddenly drop and they're left holding the bag. But that is the easier part. Getting permitting - that takes time. It generally requires 5 - 7 years to get approval for HVAC lines. As to turbines, good luck getting approval for those in the states dedicated to renewal energy. And people are pushing back that they don't want solar farms, wind farms, or data centers in their back yard. Hundreds of projects have been stopped because of local opposition.

Echo-Possible

1. Natural gas is plentiful and very cheap in the US. 2. They have a much harder problem cooling in space. You need massive expensive radiators to dissipate heat. Also, new AI data centers use very little water for cooling as they are "closed loop" systems. 3. What??? They absolutely need permitting approval for constellation. They are governed and restricted by the FCC's approvals. 4. Yes, but they will have much longer delays waiting for viable satellites to be built and launched. By then, gas turbine generators will be much easier to come by. 5. HVAC is not a problem for data centers lol. 6. No, it doesn't.

DavidThi303

1. They can be powered by solar 24/7/365 2. No need for water for cooling 3. No delays to get permitting approval 4. No delays waiting for gas turbine generators to be built. 5. No need to run HVAC lines. 6. The list goes on...

DavidThi303

Different equipment. No need for gas turbine generators. No need for giant transformers to convert that generated electricity. No need for HVAC lines. No need for natural gas lines run to the turbines.

No-Transportation843

I've lived near vibration and noise pollution before and it was hell. I could feel it in my body at night, 24/7, and was stressed and getting unhealthy. We moved because of it. But we lived across the river from an industrial area and the factories were running some kind of manufacturing. That was our fault for moving there. The factories were off during COVID so we didn't realize what it would be like.  If data centers do the same, I get why people wouldn't want to live near one. But I thought it was pretty easy to run industrial HVAC and data centers shouldn't be in residential areas anyway. The high frequency fans wouldn't create the same low frequency vibration through the ground that i experienced 

Bartybum

And the huge fuckoff noise problem of the HVAC systems going 24/7

hanr86

Here's what I found: Noise & Vibration Pollution: Constant, low-frequency hums and vibrations from thousands of cooling fans and HVAC systems run 24/7. This noise can cause severe sleep disruption, chronic headaches, vertigo, tinnitus, and elevated stress levels. Air Pollution: Many data centers rely on dozens of massive diesel generators for backup or primary power. Exhaust and nitrogen oxide (\(NO_{x}\)) emissions from these generators are linked to respiratory issues, increased asthma rates, and cardiovascular disease. Light Pollution: Massive data centers require bright exterior lighting all night long. This constant illumination can disrupt natural circadian rhythms and suppress melatonin production, making it difficult to maintain a healthy sleep cycle.Increased Utility Costs: Because data centers consume as much electricity as a small city, surrounding energy grids often face massive strain. Communities frequently experience higher utility bills to help pay for grid expansions and localized rate hikes.

WorkingGuy99percent

They also said they expect 2027 CAPEX to be more than 2026’s CAPEX. Let that sink in. Companies that make things (chips, stacks, buildings, HVAC, buildings, things that make buildings, cables, etc) are going to be running up thru next year. These companies that will be selling all that buildout will be printing money 2027 onward as well. Building retiring in 5 years new positions now.

Dihedralman

HVAC retailler before the largest El Nino in ages? 

Lavio00

A HVAC compounder trading at 20x earnings, growing 17% y/y and guiding for 25%+ topline growth… with ttm EPS growth of 15%… net leverage of about 1x…  Yeah, sounds a bit too vanilla for this degen sub. 

tke248

MOD — cooling / thermal management — **A-**. This is probably one of the better adds in the thread. Smaller than VRT, but the $4B Airedale data-center cooling agreement and 158% quarterly data-center growth make it a real AI factory shovel, not just generic HVAC.

tke248

MOD — cooling / thermal management — **A- / B+**. Strong add. Airedale by Modine puts them directly in high-density data-center cooling, and the recent data-center cooling contract makes it much cleaner than generic HVAC.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

everySmell9000

Molybdenum Oxychloride is odorless. However, it can react to humidity and release harsh and irritating hydrogen chloride. These photonic chips are going to make every data center smell like an over chlorinated swimming pool if the humidity isn't kept under control. Calls on HVAC and airconditioning are still the play, IMO.

Primary_Hour_9527

Isn't that like 90% of everything these days? Body Shops, HVAC companies, Storage Units, etc.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Someone posted a DD on an HVAC company yesterday

CryptoRossi

Given all the global warnings for “El Nino” I’m thinking will there be a run on HVAC/Aircon, Water commds, generator/energy sector to power through it? Examples: Trane Technologies Carrier Generac Valmont

solidsneeze

the etf is literally HVAC

Own-Wolverine-5361

What other things do AI data centers need? What about HVAC components?

ashleytalkshomes

I think this is why so many people talk differently about risk in their 20s versus their 30s. It's one thing watching a portfolio drop when your biggest surprise expense is a car repair. It's another when a roof, HVAC system, or insurance renewal can suddenly cost thousands. Owning a house made the idea of an emergency fund feel a lot less theoretical to me.

_hiddenscout

Kind of an interesting name, but ATMU is looking interesting to me here. The company basically sold off since the thing was running hot and in the earnings report, they only said they are planning on hitting guidance, but not raising it. Also some slowness in the heavy trucking segment, which the management said was due to the war. At these levels, valuation is starting look decent. [https://finviz.com/stock?t=ATMU&p=d](https://finviz.com/stock?t=ATMU&p=d) PEG is 1.6, P/FCF is at 23, and Foward PE of 14. Also asset light company so the ROIC/ROE is pretty solid. Description of the business: >Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells filtration products under the Fleetguard brand in the United States and internationally. >It offers fuel filters, lube filters, air filters, crankcase ventilation, hydraulic filters and coolants and other chemicals for on-highway commercial vehicles and off-highway agriculture, construction, mining, and power generation vehicles and equipment. >The company also develops filtration technologies, including filtration media, filter element formation, filtration systems integration; and service-related solutions, such as remote digital diagnostic and prognostic platforms, and analytics. They spun off from cummings and recently bought Koch, which does the HVAC filters for data centers, which should be a good growth component of the company. Also some EPA rule changes around emissions is changing next year, so could see a lot more orders coming in early next year. Earnings Presentation: [https://s201.q4cdn.com/431306011/files/doc\_presentations/2026/May/v2/Atmus-First-Quarter-2026-Earnings-Presentation-vFinal\_1.pdf](https://s201.q4cdn.com/431306011/files/doc_presentations/2026/May/v2/Atmus-First-Quarter-2026-Earnings-Presentation-vFinal_1.pdf)

jurwell

Do we know that? Presumably there’s HVAC, computer systems and all sorts of other gubbins making the ISS inhabitable that require some complex cooling requirements.

OneMoreLastChance

I'm know HVAC has doubled in the last 5 years for traditional units. Mini split units are still reasonable.

Icy-Emotion-5289

I used to think I had a high risk tolerance. Then I got a quote for a new HVAC system.

Real-DrUnKbAsTeRd

Somebody's gotta fix the HVAC on Mars

Amazing-External9546

I did exactly what you are proposing. Take a bit of time with the framing as most carports tend to leave you with uneven overlaps on your sheeting. I ended up having to add an extra stud in a couple of locations so I had an overlap for that sheeting. I also kicked my self a bit when I used 2x4s rather than 2x6 framing. The extra 2 inches of insulation does make difference. Also think about your future electrical and HVAC needs in advance. It's much easier to make adjustments. It took me a while, working on weekends but I know have an office/library/costco storage area. I ended up putting in an extra electrical panel in and had it tied to the existing one. That has proven a god send as my electrical needs expanded. I also managed to learn how to do plaster board and how to hide a multitude of sins created by carpenters that must have thought, "It's just a carport" and left me with uneven rafters to deal with. Also, I got lucky with the local building inspectors, be prepared to deal with them. I ended up getting homeowner's building forgiveness but that doesn't always happen.

Sufficient_Habit5091

Thoughts on FIX? Feels like cost to repair HVAC, electrical, plumbing etc. will go up endlessly.

OhDatsStanky

Congratulations!  Now you have a mortgage-free place to live.  You were diligent enough to build a portfolio before, you will certainly do it again.  First order of business, however , is to get an emergency fund established for normal house things that can occur.  New water heater, roof, HVAC.  It’s all good though. You are doing great and are well ahead of most.  

MajesticBread9147

**VICR** Vicor is a company out of Massachusetts that makes very efficient and modular semiconductors used for stepping up and stepping down voltages. It's useful for EVs, HPC particularly GPUs, as well as satellites since it reduces energy loss/heat. Their product is more efficient and reliable than competitors so they can carry a price premium. If you have any wonder what happens when you cheap out on these, Hyundai's ICCUs use Hyundai's own design and they're having lots of problems with them. **TGB**. Canadian mining company that is opening up a mine in Arizona, their new mine uses basically what amounts to fracking but for copper, which uses less water and more importantly significantly less fossil fuels (which are getting expensive if you haven't noticed) than other extraction methods. This mine will have a cost per pound of copper of just over $1USD. Copper is hugely important for the economy as a whole, especially the fastest growing sectors like renewable energy, EVs, HVAC systems, and basically everything that requires electricity. **ERII** Energy Recovery inc is a high margin, high moat company that has a near monopoly on systems that make all kinds of water reclaimation from desalination, industrial and wastewater reclaimation to ferric phosphate extraction from brine for use in LFP batteries. Their motors return energy from the end back to the beginning of reverse osmosis systems and unlike the few competitors in the space are made of aluminum ceramic which do not corrode or need maintenance like stainless steel in the heavily corrosive environments these systems operate in. They are beat down because their business relies on large projects, and the current Iran war is causing issues, but they have a ~90% market share in desalination plants, have expanded into selling to high water use industries like mining and textile work to reclaim water, and are moving into the lithium mining space as well as the industry moves away from evaporation pools. This isn't a speculative company. This is a company that's already been profitable and growing for years with 60% gross margins.

killthecook

Honestly though Aaon RTUs are dogshit We have two at one of my hubs and they are constantly needing repair or hard reset Trane, Liebert, and ICE wall mounts make up the our remaining HVAC units and they run solid

bayruss

I've said to in est in Intel and MU long ago. The next play is MCUs. Microcontroller units. It's not glorious or sexy, but the sheer number need per data center is in the 10,000s to 100,000. They're going to be needed for HVAC in Data centers for the current play and then in 3-4 years when robotics come online a MCU company will be worth 10 trillion+. Robotics need them for motor control meaning at least 1 per joint. With billions of robots needed..... MCUs are the next big play. I already called it. TXN was in Trump's stonk list for a reason. It's just the tinest tip of the iceberg for MCUs.

Pretend-Ad-9504

If you invested $250,000 in a rental and held it for 20 years, the rental would appreciate ~2%-5% annually, if the tenants didn’t destroy the home and if the neighborhood didn’t go to shit. You would most certainly be liable for at least 1 roof ($20,000), 1 HVAC overhaul ($8000), and 1 set of new kitchen appliances ($5000). Odds are, the interior will need to be painted twice, and the floors/carpeting redone at least twice, depending on the floors. This is outside of the unknowns (potential water damage, foundation issues, etc). You will most likely need to find new tenants at least 10 times. You will most likely find yourself in court at least once. After 20 years, you may be able to sell the house for between $500,000 - $750,000. If you invested $250,000 in VTI and held it for 20 years, you would have between $1,100,000 - $1,600,000. And you did literally nothing along the way.

RetroEvolute

Ideally both. However, with current interest rates, assuming you don't already own a rentable 2+ unit property, it's probably better to just throw the money in an index fund. I was lucky enough to get a 2 unit house with a ~3.5% interest loan (and paid 20% down so no PMI) in 2020. One of the units more or less pays the mortgage, and there are of course some random expenses, lawn mowing service for part of the year, etc, but it still brings in profit every month. Less than my VOO typically does, but it's not a 1:1 comparison. 1. Once I own the property fully (loan paid off), I'll have both units worth of income with the same minimal expenses. 2. Rent continues to increase with time, which is a great hedge against inflation. The loan value/rate also doesn't change, so inflation ultimately only makes the payments less imposing. 3. By retirement, I can just upkeep the rental and make enough to live comfortably in my, also paid off by then, house. This makes my other retirement savings more of a safety-net, overflow for spending. Now, of course there are random expenses and difficult tenants, etc. But I live close to my other property, and I vet the tenants myself. So far, I've only had very respectful tenants. I'm patient and I show them a lot of respect so I tend to get it back. The bulk of my hands-on maintenance is stopping by every few months to change HVAC filters. Every now and then I swing by to get a look while I'm running errands, but months can go by without an actual visit. It's really quite easy most of the time.

Cop10-8

Unfortunately that email could easily come with a 30k+ bill (HVAC, roof, foundation, catastrophic plumbing flood, sewer, septic, ect.). Materials and labor are absurdly priced today. I know landlords that had 1-2 years of profit wiped out by bad luck.

SelenaMeyers2024

The nice thing about the ai bubble, is that by directing all the money towards ram chips and HVAC, a ton of cash machines are left for dead. For a while health insurance, Humana and Molina. Then hpq. Those popped and gave me my new unloved misfits, saas fintech cable providers. Pypl adbe chtr are buying back 10 to 20 percent of their float while all printing cash. Intu is free with purchase of a big gulp. I'm not gonna lie, those bets have been sideways for weeks (just got intu). In the mean time I'm happy the companies are killing the floats. I name names bc I welcome the ridicule. In a year I want there to be records of this.

37366034

Most 3-9 months out. The thesis was pretty simple a few months ago. There is like a trillion dollar in CapEx getting this year and next. Bet on absolutely everything that services that build out…HVAC/Cooking, Networking, Optical, and otherwise anything thing remotely related to building a datacenter.

soundsfromoutside

We need to replace our HVAC let’s foooooooo

ihasanemail

Every HVAC dude I know is making bank. Congrats on the career.

Sad-Eagle-634

Man being in HVAC I see rich people houses all the time and you'd be surprised how many of them are just normal looking dudes driving regular cars. The ones flashing money everywhere? Usually the ones who gonna lose it fastest That umbrella insurance tip is solid, had a customer who slipped on ice at his rental property and almost lost everything because he thought regular homeowners was enough. Now he tells everyone about umbrella coverage Only thing I'd add - maybe don't go crazy upgrading your lifestyle right away either. Seen too many lottery winner type stories where people blow through everything in couple years

Sensitive-Radish-292

Brand new HVAC distribution entry via Mingledorff's (completed last week) entering a \*\*$100 billion\*\* market You got it wrong there... the HVAC distribution is the one that focuses on family houses, not the datacenters. Also the entire US HVAC market is roughly **$33.9 billion**. Majority of which are the datacenters, not the family houses. So it's a much smaller market. The only reason why they had a beat was because of M&A which puts them into red flag territory to get their credit rating re-rated. Their sales are declining, while they report that it grew 0.6% or something they also admit that 55bps were because of foreign currency (i.e. it's flat at 0.05%). You're also comparing Japanese real-estate market with the US. There's a big difference between the two, the Japanese don't see real-estate as investment, Americans do. The moment you buy real-estate in Japan it immediately loses value. You're also wrong about the premise that higher mortgage rates will cause a financial crisis... markets are generally fluid, there isn't a supply problem with housing. It's just that high-in-demand areas have a supply issue. But people can still move to the mid-west and live a comfortable life there. Additionally what caused the crisis in the first place was that rates were almost non-existent and everyone got a loan. Suggesting that the US should return to that model is far more dangerous and the FED understands that. This company tanked premarket because their margins keep shrinking and keep shrinking rapidly. The way they battle this is like any other company in the sector... mass layoffs and other cost-cutting measures. I will upvote though, because you've put a lot of effort into this.

TattiFeader

Plumbers, electricians, HVAC techs are the new software engineers. There’s plenty of demand for handy work, people are just brain washed into thinking college degree is the only way to have successful life.

Zealousideal_Owl2388

People will just be doing different stuff. There won't be any more office workers in 20 years, but your plumber and HVAC guy certainly won't be android robots yet, that's probably 50+ years away

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

FIX now boasts a 26.3% gross margin, while MEP/EPC contractors have historically had low and cyclical margins. The market buys the “AI infrastructure” narrative, but the true quality of the earnings is far less clear. The company makes extensive use of cost-to-cost percentage-of-completion accounting. The more complex hyperscale projects become, the more leeway FIX has over estimated project profitability adjustments, variable considerations, and unapproved change orders. In this type of business, profits can appear long before the actual economic completion of projects. Filings regularly mention “favorable developments on projects nearing completion.” Historically, this is exactly the vocabulary used in contracting before margin normalizations. In parallel, FIX has made a series of acquisitions: Feyen Zylstra, Meisner Electric, and Right Way Plumbing & Mechanical. Much of the recent growth looks more like a mix of acquisitions, HVAC inflation, and data center capex than a structural improvement in the business. And most importantly, FIX doesn't sell AI. They install HVAC, cooling, piping and modular power for hyperscalers...

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

All buying Puts on $FIX? FIX now boasts a 26.3% gross margin, while MEP/EPC contractors have historically had low and cyclical margins. The market buys the “AI infrastructure” narrative, but the true quality of the earnings is far less clear. The company makes extensive use of cost-to-cost percentage-of-completion accounting. The more complex hyperscale projects become, the more leeway FIX has over estimated project profitability adjustments, variable considerations, and unapproved change orders. In this type of business, profits can appear long before the actual economic completion of projects. Filings regularly mention “favorable developments on projects nearing completion.” Historically, this is exactly the vocabulary used in contracting before margin normalizations. In parallel, FIX has made a series of acquisitions: Feyen Zylstra, Meisner Electric, and Right Way Plumbing & Mechanical. Much of the recent growth looks more like a mix of acquisitions, HVAC inflation, and data center capex than a structural improvement in the business. And most importantly, FIX doesn't sell AI. They install HVAC, cooling, piping and modular power for hyperscalers.

pink_ego_box

Chips, materials and HVAC are imported to the West on sailboats apparently.

EBITDAD_69

I’ve been holding the same one for a while. They have a few applications for the graphene I’m excited for. Initially got in for the battery angle, now the application and EPA approval for HVAC and heat exchangers for 10-20% efficiency gains has me interested.

rair21

If the centers are never built then nearly every chip, semi, cloud, memory, ai, water, HVAC, equipment, utility, and a few others are about to take a 30-50% dice. almost too big to fail. Many of these centers are already under way. We already have data centers all over the country. But AI requires supercenters and those are being added. We still have an increasing electricity demand without data centers, nat gas is going to fire the plants that make up the additional energy until if/when nuclear plants are built in this country again.

Btwells1

I loaded up when I saw the world ran on semi conductors. Cashed a quarter of it in this year on a new SUV, a New HVAC, and braces for a one of my kids. You know, middled aged shit…..

JellyfishFestival

Even the well above middle class They will whittle this all down to the old people who saved enough, wealthy heirs, cops, and HVAC repairmen.

degausser22

As prez of a company that built HVAC units for battery plants and is now building for data centers - it’s hilarious to see all the work just shift 5 years later. This infrastructure buildout is fucking insane.

RJ5R

Our HVAC distributors pricing went up 14% starting last month (April). The report that came out is lagged. Expect these reports to start deteriorating rapidly going into the summer. A tsunami is coming with no good news on the horizon.

RJ5R

It's bc the real numbers are even worse. Our HVAC distributor's wholesale price on equipment went up 14% in just a single year, starting last month. We have had other suppliers who are reissuing quotes due to the fact that price increases for some raw materials have gone up so much that it wipes out their profit on the contract. All of this gets passed on eventually to the end-consumer I get that these numbers are reflecting everything as a whole, but so many sectors are experiencing double digit wholesale price increases and it's trickling throughout the rest of the economy. We are seeing a lag effect but it's coming. A tsunami is coming

RJ5R

Our HVAC distributor sent out a notice back in April with another 14% increase. Prices are spiraling out of control and what's being done about it? They're painting the reflecting pool blue

Soysauceonrice

The 529 isn't just for a traditional college education, it can be used for trade school expenses. So if accountants and lawyers are extinct in 20 years I'm pretty sure we still need HVAC technicians, electricians and plumbers. I have a 2 year old and another on the way. I'm just opening a 529 for the oldest and right now we're planning on over-funding it. If he can't use it for college we're hoping he can use it for SOME form of education. The 529 is transferable so whatever is left, we'll transfer to his sister. I admit we haven't totally thought this out but we'll work to make sure they both start adulthood off on equal footing so there isn't any resentment.

No_Height2939

Checkout AIRJ for a company i think benefits from the rising cooling and water needs long term not just from the el nino. Provides basically a more efficient dehumidifier to put it simply for industrial, data centers, and even residential areas which can use waste heat from the facility to run more efficiently and reduce cooling costs. This water is then used for liquid cooling, drinking, or whatever else you need. Currently have tests planned in texas, CA, and the middle east. Very Speculative pre revenue could go to 0 just as likely but backed by GE and has a partnership with Carrier an HVAC leader so i like it for this trend.

Gallico_Marina

There just isn't enough people to build things for that much. Unless theyr retrain people at the same speed ICE trained MAGA militia, there is not enough electricians, HVAC techs and people in general construction to spend that much. Or maybe the plan is to buy chips and store them in warehouses like they have been doing since 2 years.