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My investment thesis from a few years ago was like focusing on companies that will do well with those bills, general trends of electrification, physical data center, HVAC. This was before openAI really took off, so i've done pretty well positioning. Then of recent added stuff around aerospace, defense/navy and modernization of that sector. Been trying to think of some new macro themes, but still working on. I think some interesting things are going to be like a ton of small businesses have boomer owners that are going to retire with no succession plan. Computer vision and warehouse automation. Just some stuff, it's hard to find plays around. Like I'm big on the idea of BESS, which is battery storage with solar, but it's hard to find names that I want to own outside of NXT and SHLS.
They have lots of HVAC units. They stay in the mid 60s
If you're going to use the argument of how fast your car heats up, also factor in how much energy is burned with heat and AC. An EV's battery discharges way faster with the HVAC system powered on, whereas the heat from an ICE is just garnered through the engine and does not consume any extra energy. In the context of saving money, you could have just bought a 10-15 year old reliable, fuel-efficient Toyota for under $10k, and spent way less in total for transportation than your Tesla - especially upfront. EVs don't save you money. That's just what you're led to believe. You're spending a lot of the cost upfront, and in depreciation.
\> How is your thought process when the market goes down? Cool. Cheap equities. \> Do hold onto some cash for these buying opportunities in these moments? No. But, if I do happen to have some cash... cheap stocks! This doesn't happen too often as I usually have most of my money deployed for a specific purpose. \> ...potentially erasing all of your gains over the past few years? Outside of my control. There are things you can do to mitigate such events, but during the accumulation phase of investing it is not much of a concern. Closer to retirement and right after it will be a concern that needs to be mitigated. \> what if you need to withdraw money for an emergency during these conditions? I have an emergency fund for emergencies. And I have savings account(s) for well known future expenses like HVAC or Roof repair/replacement. Or my next vehicle (separate saving account). This is why emergency funds should be in cash or cash equivalents. They won't increase in value like an investment but they won't drop either when you need them. What about credit? Chances are it won't be there if you need it because if you need it you are a credit risk. The lost upside of not investing an emergency fund is the cost of self-insuring against loss of job, etc. Think of the lost "potential" upside as an insurance premium just like what you pay for car insurance.
The HVAC technician can take the next available SpaceX flight to the orbital data center to diagnose the cooling issue. Diagnostic fee: 250,000 Trip charge: 35,000,000 Time from service call to tech on site: 65 days.
Archer, Bloom Energy, communication satellite companies. data center HVAC companies, metals used in data centers.
Doesn't AI shops need a lot of HVAC?
CARR - Carrier Global. Industrial HVAC company. Trading at a 2 year low. Heating and cooling isn’t going away, even in a recession
Yeah, that's kind of the point. The investing sub wants me to manage my own money & investments. The lawn care sub wants me do all my own mowing, landscaping, treatment applications, weeding, etc, etc The family & parenting subs want me to be a "millennial dad" who spends 1000% of my time with my kids. The hone and real estate subs want me to constant update and renovate my property to keep up its value. The DIY sub insists I should do all those things myself because contractors will just rip me off. I want to install mini splits next year, the HVAC sub insists I can do it all myself for less money. LinkedIn and subs related to my job want me to work 16 hour days and then spend the "downtime" that I have left studying new topics and technologies because it's the only want they say I can have a successful career and earn money. I follow subs about various hobbies and people there dedicate ungodly number of hours to becoming the best player to the expense of all other things. All those communities, mock those who don't. Those are just a few examples, it applies to just about everything. Every community will say "Well, this is the one thing you probably *should* invest your time in doing". Like, I get it... I can and I *do* a lot of all those things but at some point you end up just needing to pay some of their time moreso than it is for their expertise because I can't possibly do all of those things all at once. I have to prioritize my time.
Absolutely not lol I got desperate and tried options and very risk trades and now I take more of a traditional trading approach playing the long game and am much more careful with my money. I do HVAC and my focus is on running my own company soon. Easier to be a rain maker then to hold a bucket and pray for rain.
Defense (slow grinder) Robotics Infrastructure for data centers (lighting, HVAC, networking, power) Energy storage Multinomic Sequencing Crypto/Blockchain Integration of AI into the software stack (and some semiconductor manufacturing will bake AI into their chips)
And who do you think is paying for these trades…? Usually middle or upper class white collars are the one paying for trade services. They are the main group that hire people to do their plumbing, electrical work, HVAC, fixing their cars, clean their roofs… White collars pay for trade services. They are the biggest client base. If all these white collars lost their jobs and cut on spending, it will hit people in the trades as well, severely. Maybe instead of spending $700 on fixing their car, the jobless white collars will just deal with driving a shitty car with a broken AC instead and only fix it when they find a job, or maybe never. That’s hundreds of dollars in labor that an auto mechanic lost out because their clients can no longer afford the service. You get the idea. Smaller client base, less jobs to do, while more competition because everyone flocks to trades because “AI can’t replace me” thinking. End results is a race to the bottom. Sure AI might not be able to replace people in the trades but those people would make jackshit if no one is hiring them due to their clients being broke.
Yourself. Learn a trade. Mechanic, plumbing, HVAC. Etc. even if you don’t want these as careers, they will save you SOOOO much money down the road. Especially as a homeowner. And potentially side jobs. Almost every person that works on something in my house, does not have that as a full time job.
For kicks, I just looked it up. DJT did $3.6M in 2024 revenue, with a net operating income of -$183M. That top line is a moderately successful HVAC contractor. How in the fuck is this even happening?
Planning to continue trading? -Seek help from family or friends who could at least half understand what you doing -look back at your positions and identify your “hits” and be candor when you “missed” - Tradervue or other ? -Cut all losses and sell -Read ‘Quit by Annie Duke’ - you seem to be facing an escalation of commitment and/or Sunk-Cost all together Not necessarily in the same order, I've written as I thought would be most important. Lastly, there's nothing wrong with calling the quits in TRADING (not your life, don't be selfish) and take a different course in your life… cab driver, home maintenance specialit (HVAC) and few others might offer you the freedom you look for with the commitment you need Good luck. We all probably been there, active traders at least Seek for help! Inner or otherwise, but do it
Mind boggling. Though from what I read there's a fair amount of manual tasks that are proving hard to automate. Anything that requires a large amount of customization really. HVAC and plumbing are similar because every house has weird quirks a crannies that have to be worked around. No two are ever alike.
Private equity is on an insane buying spree buying up HVAC contractors in my area.
Hmm, I’ll stick to my boring HVAC company.
I work for a heating and cooling company that is held by one of 3 major investment companies. From what I’ve been told they are also planning similar layoffs. Estimates among management is that amongst the HVAC industry, there will close to 250,000 layoffs by next summer, eliminating our customer service team
Brother, I'm looking at HVAC and sandwich shops. We aren't there yet.
Use case: I know nothing about HVAC. I was able to install a new smart thermostat in about 10 minutes without having to Google instructions
The problem that will ultimately bite them in the ass is a major house maintenance item. Painting, HVAC, Fencing, Plumbing... You can push off things like a remodel, but if your heater takes a dump you need to pay to get it fixed or wear a parka in your house.
Zero water usage doesn’t mean using air-cooled chillers. That’s a different thing. The system still uses water in both the chilled-water and condensing-water loops. The so-called “zero water usage” means the condensing water loop is a closed system. But it does not mean water-cooled chillers aren’t used. You have mixed up two different fundamental HVAC things. The chiller configuration is one of the FAQs in the HVAC PE Exam. You won’t pass the exam if you don’t even know the difference. Anyhow, it is just a technical debate. So no biggie.
Agreed. HVAC equipment manufacturers have a similar play as Eaton here. Johnson Controls/York, Trane, Carrier, Daikin. If you want to go a step further most of these data centers require a specific compressor technology that Danfoss is the leading producer of.
Honeywell spun out their cooling and HVAC division with $SOLS. Could be wrong, but worth looking into.
Interesting name! I am not familiar but looks like forward multiple of 34 and PEG just below 2, so decent valuation. I had liked the automation names ROK, EMR, and JCI but its a valuation issue still, although automation does command a slightly higher multiple I guess? EMR and ROK are more automation plays but PEG are both near like 4 which is high, JCI is more building controls (HVAC, security, etc.)
I bought houses after the recession and did the brrr method. It's a massive pain in the ass, and a ton of hard work. I got tired of replacing floors, and roofs, and sewage lines, and HVAC units and all the other stuff you're aware of. I sold off everything except my main and 1 rental and parked the money in VUG and Sprxx. That being said, since 2021 prices have been flat, but that may change in the next 1-2 years. If rates get lower there could be an uptick in home prices and demand. I think there's two ways to look at your situation. 1. Return on Investment, which you talked about. That number can be accepted as a decent return. In my case it was 10-20% depending on the year. 2. Return on equity. This is the number I looked at and decided I needed to shift out of houses. I had hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity. The return was less than 3% when I evaluated from this metric. I was also tired of having a net worth that was essentially inaccessible, and a low capital to net worth ratio. Having cash feels so much better. The only thing I'm missing without the houses is that asset leveraged at 3-5% interest.
apparently lutnick thinks HVAC jobs are gonna save America because they are super technical and pay great LOL !!!
$FIX comfort systems A mega cooperate HVAC company that does heating an cooling for GPUS an data processing Centers for AI
out of all the HVAC stocks i pick ofc CARR would be the worst one
Even free cooling fails all the time HVAC guy here lol
Are you thinking this is another GFC moment? With the cash flows that these hyper scalers are generating and then the distribution of chips that Google is building as well as Amazon is building. I think those two will be fine along with Apple. Yes, I have my concerns about Nvidia. That’s why I’m not invested in it I I’ll take my hit from everybody here for not being investor, but that’s fine. I don’t believe in their long term plan as chips have been commoditized. But don’t give up on the market diversify more, look at data center and derivative place such as HVAC, construction materials, utilities, energy producers I think if you play all of those you will be safe to hide out from the initial high risk of the chips and the cash that’s going go out the door
If they are running a lot hotter, its because they are using more electricity. That kind of electricity isnt installed ahead of time in case, these systems are engineered. In order to renovate this center to use more electricity, it would be known by the facility engineers it would need more cooling. Again, the amount of cooling required is just like the electricity. Its either there or it isnt. Turning a building like this would require millions in updrages and new hardware. The HVAC install would be the least of their expenses, albeit a required one.
I used to work at a similar datacenter to CHI1. Graveyard shift on a holiday night is the absolute worst time to get a on-call HVAC guy. I had a CRAC unit go up in smoke once. It ruined my night of otherwise cranking my shit in the bathroom and watching YouTube videos.
This CME outage might take a few more hours. You know the on-call HVAC guys are all drunk from thanksgiving dinner. So they have to find a sober guy or sober up, fix the chillers, then reestablish normal operating temps. Shits gonna be down all night. Nothing is more panic inducing than walking into a hot, silent datacenter.
Datacenters don’t have windows… it’s a joke. That’s why the chiller breaking is a big deal and you gotta call the emergency HVAC contact who is probably drunk already.
Thanksgiving is literally the worst day to have to call the on-call HVAC guys to fix the chillers.
I had the same issue. Had to bring the whole thing out but after that it was easy enough (ie I didnt cry while doing it, unlike the time I fixed my HVAC system in 100 degree heat 🥲)
Im in HVAC god bless blue collar workers!
do u work in HVAC or something blue collar?
I’m assuming some people may have commented on this, but most of the more modern DCs are using CRACs or liquid cooling, not CRAHs, due to the efficiency of cooling capacity, especially with MAUs handling air with VA’s DEQ requirements in the DMV, which is where you’re located. Idk why you’re fixated on CRAHs being the solution when they’re much less efficient in their tonnage of cooling than CRACs. Being an HVAC tech you’re probably well aware of not needing chillers for the DX systems. Even if geothermal DID work in the regions, they want things that take less upfront cost with the ability to be upgraded and/or replaced. Refrigerant regulations coming out with the new “better for the environment” refrigerant is gonna be a costly compliance update, imagine having installed geothermal pumps that live through multiple generations of updated regulations. Saving millions upfront per center lets them expand out with less initial investment, and the infrastructure requirements to build geothermals for multiple campuses is just infeasible. Saying oracle doesn’t believe in themselves is facetious tbh, they’re weighing investment Va available cash flow, they may not know whether or not the DC will be there in 20 years, but they’re sure as hell planning to have it for at least 10. I think you’re only looking at it from one angle directly related to the most efficient solution in your field alone and not the DC sphere as a whole.
Everything. Target has done almost everything wrong. I still see them as the company that got their entire credit card network fucked by hackers through a shitty HVAC vendor. What the fuck were their POS systems doing being accessible through the same network as the 3rd party HVAC vendor?
Yes, I saw your comment about hiring a property management company. That doesn't mean that you have no financial obligations to the property. As previosuly mentioned if there is a major repair needed your property manager is not paying for it out of their pocket. They are going to take care of everything, they'll find the contractor, they'll coordinate the scheduling with the tenant, I'm sure they'll do a great job. They are still going to send you the bill. If you do think you would return then I would say yes, keep the property. Even if you do have an emergency $10,000 HVAC repair, you'll get to enjoy that new HVAC when you return in 2035.
I have a rental property so I can speak from a bit of experience. Really consider if you want to do this. Think through all of the costs -- mortgage, but also things like pest control or HVAC service or landscaping, you really need to make sure the numbers will work out. How much are you cash flowing each month -- and keep in mind looking at other asking prices does not mean your property will actually rent for that, and even worse if you have to pay realtor commissions. Can you afford empty months? This is especially true if you use professional property management - many have contracted rates where if a tenant calls, they send a pro and bill you. And tenants don't take care of a space like an owner. Which also means if you change your mind in 2 years and want to sell, you probably will have more inspection items or have to spend more to paint or refresh flooring or whatever. It isn't a bad thing to rent, the money can be quite good. But it is "buying a job". Houses aren't liquid, and this can take money pouring into it. That being said, for me, it is good diversification.
Well things are more eroded than they were before after certain amount of time of "gradually" aren't they? Even if its only a little bit, but judging by the sentiment I have encountered in people around me and on here, it seems to be more than a little bit. I cannot put any metrics to it, surely partly because I am no economist, but also because the metrics being gathered in my opinion (which I gathered from reading a choice number of top level comments on this subreddit and r/askeconomics) the metrics are fully detached from experience of the majority, or being outright manipulated. since I want an answer and to give you an answer, though I hate to use AI, this is what Gemini said after I asked it "why a bubble crash in the current US economic situation for the lower middle/ middle-middle class will result in a worse outcome for them than it did in 2009", and gave it the context of our conversation (and I read it all and I think its on point): Yes, your intuition is grounded in economic reality. While 2008 was a violent, sudden shock, the current setup for the lower-middle and middle-middle class (roughly the 30th to 70th income percentiles) suggests that a crash today could be structurally worse because the "baseline" stability has eroded. In 2009, the crash caused the instability. In 2025, the instability is already there before any crash happens. The following breakdown details why a bubble burst in the current environment would likely result in a more damaging outcome for these groups than the Great Recession. 1. The "Baseline" is Already Broken The most critical difference is the starting position of the average family. In 2007, household finances were stretched, but today they are structurally different. Savings Depletion: Entering 2008, the personal savings rate was low, but today it is even lower for the bottom 50%. Inflation has forced many families to burn through pandemic-era savings just to cover groceries and rent. You are starting a marathon with a sprained ankle. The "Lock-In" Effect: In 2009, if you lost your job, you could potentially move to a cheaper area. Today, housing affordability is at a historic low.1 Families with a 3% mortgage (or cheap rent-controlled unit) literally cannot afford to move for a new job because new rates/rents would double their housing costs. This makes the labor force immobile, deepening unemployment spells. 2. The Labor Market has "Uber-ized" (Loss of Safety Nets) This is the biggest structural shift since 2009. 2009: When people lost jobs, they were mostly W-2 employees eligible for unemployment insurance, COBRA health coverage, and eventually extended federal benefits (up to 99 weeks).2 2025: A massive portion of the lower-middle class now relies on "gig work" or contract labor (1099) for some or all of their income. The Danger: If a recession hits and gig demand dries up (fewer Uber rides, fewer DoorDash orders), gig workers are generally ineligible for unemployment insurance. There is no safety net for a third of the modern workforce. 3. The "Policy Handcuffs" (Why the Gov Can't Save You This Time) In 2008/2009, the government threw the "kitchen sink" at the economy because inflation was near zero and national debt was manageable (~60% of GDP). Sticky Inflation: In 2008, prices fell (deflation), so the Fed could cut interest rates to 0% instantly to stimulate the economy. Today, with inflation still "sticky" (around 2.5-3%), the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates to zero without causing hyperinflation. They will be forced to keep rates higher even as people lose jobs. Debt Load: The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is now ~100% (vs ~60% in 2008). Congress has significantly less political and fiscal "room" to pass massive stimulus checks or bailout packages without risking a sovereign debt crisis.3 4. The Nature of the Next Bubble (Private Credit & Corporate Debt) The 2008 crash was about housing.4 The next potential crash is often predicted to be about corporate debt (Private Credit and Commercial Real Estate).5 Why this hurts the Middle Class: Private equity and private credit firms own a vast number of "boring" medium-sized businesses (HVAC companies, dental chains, mid-tier tech firms, restaurant franchises). The Impact: If these debt bubbles burst, these companies won't just lay people off; they may be liquidated entirely. This targets the exact service-sector and administrative jobs that the lower-middle class relies on. The Bottom Line You are correct. The economic stability of the lower/middle class is more fragile now than in 2007. A crash today would likely result in "stagflationary debt"—where you lose your job (recession), but prices for rent and food keep going up (inflation), and the government is too indebted to bail you out.
Maintenance will eat you alive. 20 mil house is going to be large. You most likely will not be able to maintain it yourself, thus you need hired help. Also you’ll need possibly multiple HVAC units, security, etc. Maybe get a 10 mil house and start with that.
I am an HVAC engineer at a different large company so I know for sure that big companies care more about CAPEX than they do OPEX no matter how sustainable a company they are if they’re a public company because the less they spend, the higher their margins are for that quarter. Depending on the climate, cooling towers are going to be more efficient anyways.
A trillion committed to AI over the next 5 years isn't helping anyone? Really? Who's building data centers, who's building the power infrastructure? who's feeding all those people? who's manufacturing the equipment for those people to use? who's housing those people? who's manufacturing the HVAC going into all of them? who's transporting them? AI spend may be the canary in the coil mine, but the all in position of these tech companies is allowing the broader market to follow, especially with the tax incentives for companies to invest in infrastructure.
How does the title of your post relate to the content? I don’t see the connection. You install a few HVAC systems and assume all the others are the same? Could this be any more anecdotal. My understanding is the concerns about water useage have been exaggerated and the main concern continues to be energy.
HVAC bro here thinks once the data center gets built, they fill it full of chips and flip and switch then the country goes into a blackout. I'm thinking he's probably just the assistants assistant who hangs around and holds the ladder while the adults work.
AI will take your job. AI will not do HVAC.
Hey Larry/Jensen/Satya, the HVAC guy would like a word with the CFO…Says the building will be worthless in a few years? -sounds pretty serious. I’m officially calling the bubble, bubble right now.
Hmmm maybe now is the time to get HVAC installed in my old ass house? Estimates were comically high the past couple of years
Woah woah, I’m an HVAC tech and I took AP calculus in high school.
The people doing plumbing, HVAC, and electrical are the kids who couldn't pass pre algebra let alone intro to chemistry in high school. Surely you're not that regarded. Try YouTube.
And qubts "foundry" didn't have industrial HVAC, lifted ceilings, a loading dock or even a garage door. Along with having sold like only a dozen units (most likely to themselves) seems it was all just fraud.
You're thinking correctly. AI infrastructure (datacenters, power, cooling) is the right play vs chasing model companies. **Your thesis is solid:** \- Datacenter compute demand = 10-20 year tailwind \- Cooling is critical (40MW racks generate insane heat) \- Every watt matters (power costs are 40%+ of datacenter opex) **Specific stocks in your focus areas (under $200):** **Datacenter Power & Services:** \- **VST** (Vistra, \~$120) - Power generation for datacenters \- **NEE** (NextEra, \~$70) - Renewable energy + datacenter power **Cooling:** \- **VRT** (Vertiv, \~$130) - 60% market share in high-density cooling \- **CARR** (Carrier, \~$80) - Datacenter HVAC systems **Compute Infrastructure:** \- **SMCI** (Super Micro, \~$45) - Server infrastructure (volatile but pure play) **One layer you're missing: Networking** \- **AVGO** (Broadcom, \~$170) - Custom AI networking chips \- AI clusters need 800Gbps interconnects. AVGO dominates this. **Space datacenters:** Too early (10+ years out). Stick to terrestrial infrastructure for now. **My take:** You're early and right. Elite funds are loading power/cooling plays while retail chases NVDA. Check recent 13F filings—CEG, VRT, VST all showing up. Focus on infrastructure. Let others fight over who builds the best AI model. Not financial advice. Just confirming you're on the right track.
We could always take power from public infrastructure. Maybe people shouldn't really be trying to bend the climate to their unnecessary comfort of their own homes? How about we just make a law that says public school infrastructure can have HVAC and the public can sit in the gyms if they don't want to be in their natural climate homes? Now we have the energy infrastructure we need for data centers.
This will probably get lost here, but seems like a lot of people have forgotten the energy SAVINGS we have created over the past 20 years. \- 100 watt lightbulbs now use only 16 or so watts. \- Refrigerators, dryers, dishwashers are all much more efficient \- 14 SEER HVAC is much more efficient than what we had 20 years ago, 30 years ago. I know we have a lot more smart devices but seems like we have saved a lot of energy in a lot of areas that we didn't used to care about. And I'm not an electrician, but when is the life expectancy of electrical wire, seems like it chould be much more than 50 years?
Read all of this and all of the links and become an informed investor: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1l6j6tj/new\_to\_rbogleheads\_read\_this\_first/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1l6j6tj/new_to_rbogleheads_read_this_first/) This will take some time. It's your money and your future. It's worth spending some time. There may be some good advice on Youtube channels. It is also hugely outweighed by a lot of really bad advice. I wouldn't bother with Youtube. Watching videos is not a good way to learn. There are some good books that won't take long to read. I like the Bogle ones for a simple, but effective approach to investing. My library had one of them. I've been investing for 50 years so I don't bother continuing reading books. My parents didn't know anything about investing to teach it to me. All of their investing was in bank CDs. They did highly emphasize saving. I had to learn investing on my own and made many mistakes along the way. I wish I had that read-this-first or the Bogle books at 25. My net worth would probably be double what it is. I still did pretty well fumbling my way through it. Construction and other skilled trades are a good way to make a living and make more money than a lot of college graduate jobs. The downside generally is it is hard on your body and may be tough to do until an age 65 retirement. I am always grateful when I can get skilled trades home work done - HVAC, electrical, plumbing, honey dipper. That is stuff I can't do myself.
I’m in the upper Midwest. As for what is considered a skilled trade, this sums it up pretty well. From Google: “Skilled trade jobs are hands-on professions that require specialized training, often through apprenticeships, but not a four-year college degree. Examples include electricians, plumbers, carpenters, and HVAC technicians, as well as careers in manufacturing and transportation like welders or automotive service technicians. These jobs involve building, repairing, or maintaining various systems and structures. Common skilled trade jobs • Construction: Electrician, plumber, carpenter, welder, painter, and pipefitter • Manufacturing and Industrial: Machinist, metal fabricator, tool and die maker, and industrial mechanic • Transportation: Automotive service technician, heavy-duty equipment technician, and commercial driver • Maintenance and Repair: HVAC technician, maintenance worker, and electrician's or plumber's apprentice. • Other: Sterilization professional, locksmith technician, and stationary engineer.”
I'm an HVAC technician. The worst people to deal with are engineers for the reasons you mention and landlords.
AI can’t fix your HVAC or plumbing or anything
You seem to be missing the fact that they are actually building datacenters with the money being passed around. No new wealth being created? Lots of the infrastructure buildout is creating jobs and revenue for everybody in the supply chain. You can already see different companies in different sectors (semis, energy, memory, storage, HVAC, etc.) all get a boost in their revenues. The mega-caps with the big wallets are financing the smaller players who don't have cash to fund the infrastructure buildout needed. This is the classic case of a smaller business needing cash to expand their operations. The one thing you have to remember is that the mega-caps aren't the ones going into heavy debt to fund this whole endeavor. They are using a portion of their free cash flow. Rather than do stock buybacks, they decided to invest in their R&D in order to stay ahead of everyone else. If you are a mega-cap with a huge cash $ and you find a nascent new technology that is extremely promising but also extremely expensive initially to invest in, what do you do to stay ahead of the competition? You outspend them. Once this techology comes down in cost (and it will, all hardware gets more affordable over time), more players will be able to enter the space and the advantage these mega-caps have will be reduced. They literally are spending to stay ahead of everyone out there because if they don't, someone else will and they are dead.
Easy. Say they're AI HVAC and you're selling them to the govt.
$PLTR "investors" are absolutely COOKed ☠️ I don't think many understand how absurd this 137x p/s figure is on $PLTR... Let's say you own a business, call it an HVAC business. You do $1,000,000 in sales a year and someone comes and says they are willing to pay $137,000,000 for your company. What's your next move!
Just the HVAC and cooling systems are a fortune
It's a jobs program for HVAC technicians
Put the mentions on a watch list. Look into those companies and see what they do. Weed out the shit ones that have 8 employees in an office beside an HVAC company like BURU and then watch for volume. If a stock is trading 50 times its regular volume its gonna either skyrocket or sink like the titanic. Set a stop loss and say 3 hail marys.
Totally. Done really well with like IESC, FIX and LMB, which are more of the wiring aspect and upgrading things like HVAC. It's the same thing with solar + battery storage. I follow a lot of energy people and what not on Twitter. I find it interesting. Like it's insane how much that space is growing, but just never find companies outside of like a few that I want to invest in. I know I interact with you time to time. Probably read this from me, post it every so often, but one my things with investing is really caring about valuation, because I think overpaying for something can really kill your overall returns. Like I'm a GARPy person, I don't mind paying a little bit of a premium for a great company. I always try to buy things with PEGs under 2. BMI just never gets there.
Sorry to come in hot but I don't want to see people left behind. AI is going to change things. I was on the fence for awhile but it's just the reality now. I'm seeing it heavily used and companies stalling on hiring until they have a good handle on what the labor market is going to look like with AI. The economy is going to diverge into AI software companies (google, microsoft), traditional companies that embraced AI early and did it better than their competitors (walmart, amazon etc..), companies that support AI (infrastructure, critical materials, data centers and electrical/grids) and skilled labor (healthcare, dentistry, HVAC, plumbing, blue collar etc...). This is a disruptor just like the internet. This isn't an ideology like bitcoin or crypto - it has substantiated returns. Check out NVDA'S PE ratio for example
They are objectively bad as daily drivers for on-road use, but are priced at luxury car prices. They're very robust and overbuilt as per the design intent, but have teething pains (leaks, infotainment issues, HVAC problems, etc), and the overbuilt frame and axles don't mean anything to most drivers. They lack interior storage and are very noisy vehicles to drive on the road. The dealership network is also tiny, and you can't even reset the oil change warning as an end user (been promised for years at this point). They only recently fixed the ADAS warning. This is a very flawed vehicle which is good at a thing most people don't actually need (off-road durability). Gen 2 whenever it comes should be interesting. They'll either add in some creature comforts or off-road capability (articulation on them is pretty awful, they need disconnecting sway bars). The problem is very few people want a 90k noisy off-road vehicle just because it looks cool and is built out of parts that would survive tractor duty. There's a reason they are sitting on lots even with the recent price cut.
we're all going to be cops, HVAC guys, or unemployed day traders gambling on the robot wealth of 10 trillionaires. end stage capitalism for ya
It's going to be wild in a few years when we're mostly an economy of cops, HVAC guys, and unemployed day traders speculating on the robot wealth of about 10 trillionaires
Every month. Play Store, YouTube premium Lite, YouTubeTV, Pixel phones on Google Fi network, Google One for data storage and access to larger limits in Notebook/Gemini, Fitbit premium (though this is a free trial and I'm allowing it to expire lol).... Google Fiber is coming to our area soon, and when my HVAC inevitably needs to be replaced in the next year or two I'll put a Nest thermostat on the new unit. I wish Waymo were available in my city, my wife and I could sell a vehicle and be a one car household
Tech gunna continue beating and raising. I was just looking at HVAC companies and they’re beating expectations by nearly 20%, saying they can’t keep up with the demand due to data center expansion. Don’t think this is slowing down anytime soon, and probably another .25 bps cut by December
Not so sure. Bunch of my tech plays blew it out of the water for Q3 (Ai data centers), there’s a massive amount of money being thrown around, and over the last couple weeks a lot of tech plays bled away 20-30% from ATH. There’s room here. Im even seeing HVAC contractors are beating expected earnings by 20%+. What do you think will fill these giant new data centers?
Comfort Systems USA soared Friday after the HVAC and electrical contracting company breezed past earnings expectations amid "unprecedented demand" for its services.
HVAC is tough I hope he does well and I'm sure he will! Keep him away from this sub lol
HVAC is similiar, my 16 year old son just finished an HVAC program through the high school, local company hired him from noon till 4 every day while he finishes he 11th and 12 grades, their paying him 22$ an hour with a contracted bump to 30$ once he finishes school. Crazyness.
While this is truly the golden age for franchise HVAC companies, I believe there might be a end to this boom coming soon. There was a ton of private equity money coming into the sector but now it seems like it is slowing down. Majority of activity in the field now is acquisition or mergers from what I can see.
CARR produces HVAC units, but FIX does the actual labor for all work related to mechanical, electrical and plumbing. They’re quite different businesses. I haven’t really been following CARR as closely as I probably should. My guess is that CARR doesn’t have the AI exposure that FIX does. I think they just develop mostly residential HVAC units, FIX performs commercially which has far more data center exposure.
They had good earnings today. A long time ago I worked in datacenters and telecom. I know MLI's products first-hand; especially some of their valves and HVAC stuff. This is an AI datacenter play. While they might get hurt by the poor consumer housing market and poor business construction, they may be able to lean into datacenter construction.
buy your neighborhood HVAC business from a retiring boomer (after you win a bidding war with Apollo)
There are already a ton of companies that have been doing well. Not to be rude, but you are about 2-3 years too late to the party for this. Look at companies like $FIX and $IESC have been killing it. Same with $EME. They deal with helping doing rewiring for factories and data centers. It's gotten a bit more expensive, but $NXT has been great. They deal with tracking and utility solar. A lot of investors lump utility with residential for solar. Utility has been killing it. $SHLS has been on a great run. There are also the companies that deal with the upgrades like $AGX, $PWR, $PRIM. Some HVAC have been doing well like $LMB.
I ended up having to move for work. Many projects ended up getting put on hold, one mill shut down due to falling demand for their paper product. I've since moved to Atl working in commercial HVAC. Copper has went through the roof and quite volatile, thankfully my job is connected to data centers that have no choice but to be built.
Hopefully learning a lot about plumbing, HVAC, and electrical, etc. So they that we all can take care of our homes and have those trades to make life easier. They will get rich by doing this.
Just look at NUAI and OPEN's chart same exact pattern. Then look what happened after receiving Nasdaq compliance letter. DFLI patterned with PACCAR (multibillion dollar company behind Peterbilt and Kenworth) to incorporate effective way of using HVAC and electronics while idling. Saves environment, and less stress on the engine. This will be above $7 by end of year.
DFLI buy and hold. Been telling you this since September. DFLI compliance letter will be released Thursday. Earnings call is scheduled on November 14th, 2025. preliminary results are in and YoY revenue in sales is up 26% and losses has narrowed roughly 18%. Once the confirmations are out we can see a beautiful spike. Also I've just read on Electrik that instead of going fully electric with trucks, truckers are starting to use lithium batteries to power their HVAC, fridges, and electronics while parked. Cuts idling, saves fuel, and reduces wear on the diesel engine. Realistic step toward cleaner trucking without waiting for full EV semis. Low and behold, the key player behind this story is Dragonfly and their partner PACCER (company behind Kenworth and Peterbilt) In short Dragonfly will be providing PACCER with batteries to make their diesel trucks more efficient. DFLI is going to be the next OPEN. Should be around $7 by EOY. This is a marathon not a race.
The companies I’d be more worried about are the ones who shifted from bitcoin mining into AI. That sounds like an opportunistic rebranding vs. a company like FIX who services HVAC and captured the contracts to service the HVAC in data centers. But FIX is up 100% since last April, and if you zoom out to a larger timeframe it is up a lot more than that. Data centers aren’t going anywhere, but the speed we’re building them at will slow down. I like the rare earth, nuclear, HVAC and the AI ETF you have. Just don’t be surprised if companies lose 50% or more of their value when the bubble pops. And you don’t need to sell everything, but every once in a while I would take a little profits here and there, because after all this is a bubble.
data center services, power and HVAC you welcome
Recent US Breakthrough: Rare-Earth-Free Magnet with Superior High-Temperature Performance Rare-earth magnets, such as neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) types, have long been the gold standard for strength in permanent magnets, offering magnetic energy products (a key measure of strength) of 30–55 MGOe (mega-gauss-oersteds). These were co-invented in the US in the 1980s by researchers like John Croat at General Motors, revolutionizing applications from electric vehicles (EVs) to wind turbines. However, their reliance on scarce, China-dominated rare-earth elements (like neodymium) has driven efforts to develop alternatives. A major US advancement addressing this came in 2023 from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Ames National Laboratory in Iowa. Scientists there developed a rare-earth-free bonded magnet using a cerium-based alloy (specifically, cerium-cobalt-iron-copper), designed for industrial motors. While its room-temperature strength is comparable to or slightly below standard NdFeB magnets (exact MGOe figures aren’t public yet, but it’s optimized for efficiency rather than raw power), it excels in coercivity—the magnet’s resistance to demagnetization. Crucially, its coercivity nearly doubles when temperatures rise from room temperature to 100°C (212°F), a performance edge over rare-earth magnets, which often lose effectiveness in heat-heavy applications like EV motors or factory pumps. Key Details on the Invention • Inventors and Development: Led by Ames Lab’s Ryan Ott and Iver Anderson, in collaboration with industry partners like John Deere. The project focused on affordable, supply-chain-resilient materials for permanent magnet motors, which are 10–20% more efficient than induction motors but typically rare-earth dependent. • Why “Stronger” Than Rare-Earth? It’s not universally stronger in raw magnetic field (e.g., remanence), but outperforms in high-heat scenarios where rare-earth magnets degrade. Tests in an industrial pump motor showed it exceeding design specs for torque and efficiency, potentially reducing motor size/weight by 10–15% in hot environments. • Advantages: • No rare-earths: Uses abundant cerium (a “light” rare-earth byproduct) and common metals, cutting costs by ~30–50% and avoiding geopolitical risks. • Heat tolerance: Retains magnetism up to 200°C+, vs. NdFeB’s ~80–150°C limit without expensive additives like dysprosium. • Scalability: Already prototyped in bonded form (powder mixed with polymer for flexibility); sintered versions are in testing. • Applications: Ideal for EVs, HVAC systems, and manufacturing—sectors where heat buildup is common. Ames Lab estimates it could replace rare-earths in 20–30% of industrial motors by 2030. Broader US Efforts in Rare-Earth Alternatives This isn’t isolated; US innovation is accelerating due to supply concerns. Other notable developments: • Niron Magnetics (Minneapolis, MN): Since 2014, they’ve commercialized iron-nitride (Fe16N2) magnets. Theoretical strength exceeds NdFeB by 2x (up to 130 MGOe), using only iron and nitrogen. Prototypes match neodymium performance at half the cost; production scaling in 2025. • Tetraenite (Iron-Nickel): University of Minnesota researchers (2022) lab-created this meteorite-like alloy in seconds, rivaling NdFeB in anisotropy (directional strength). Funded by ARPA-E, it’s targeting EV motors with 40–50 MGOe. • Oak Ridge National Lab Projects: Exploring ferrite and manganese-aluminum-carbon magnets, achieving 20–30 MGOe—sufficient for many EVs without rare-earths, though ~30% heavier than NdFeB equivalents. These US inventions stem from federal investments (e.g., Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s $1B+ for critical materials). While not all surpass rare-earths in every metric yet, the Ames magnet’s heat-edge makes it “stronger” for real-world durability. For updates, check Ames Lab’s site or Niron’s roadmap—commercial pilots are underway as of October 2025. If you meant a specific magnet or application, provide more details!
Also, they have robotaxis running right now in multiple cities. Not an upcoming technology I would wanna bet against as it's operations expand nationally and internationally. Also, Trump has an 80% chance of losing his tariff authority appeal to be decided case on Nov. 5 by the Supreme Court. I would recommend QUBT. Their "foundry" is a plain old office building without industrial HVAC equipment, garage doors or elevated ceilings. They don't even have a double wide door to get equipment inside. It's a total Ponzi scheme. And trading near ATH. I really think this one is gonna drop till it's delisted. No idea how long this fuckery will last, so make sure you're buying leaps, as the market could skyrocket if Trump loses his tarrif case and the money collected gets refunded to the companies who paid them.
Well each HVAC tech should gross on average about $350,000 for general residential and light commercial. While industrial and speciality (think life science) will gross ~1M. A mid sized company carries about 100 to 1500 employees. I'd say most HVAC probably lean <200. Of which maybe 20% of staff are general tech and 10% specialized. And rest of staff supports, but all gross is accounted for by tech work. So that's about 25M per year gross as a midpoint. I'd say it tops out at about 60M before they arent mid sized compabies. Residential light commercial exclusive small business tend to cap around 5-6M gross, which would have been more than ASTS did in gross full year 2024. From here you can work out which ones are multi billion dollar companies with revenue below either a mid sized HVAC company or small business HVAC company.
Which multi billion dollar companies are bringing in less revenue than a mid sized HVAC company? Profits id believe but overall revenue is a bigger stretch.