$0.10 (0.18%) Today
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
90 hit needs INTC to execute perfectly, dg2 success, mobileye spinoff worth more than $50b, alder lake success, sapphire rapids success, and hopefully CHIP ACTS will pass for Intel. ALL that being said, I'm not expecting for all that happens. My breakeven for the options play is like $75 by the end of the year. If it does not hit $90+ by the time, I'm satisfied with $75 around
That is a good question. The past year or two the stock has dumped after earnings because INTC keeps losing market share. I think it will still lose some share this ER but think it is stabilizing and INTC is releasing new chips now and they are looking pretty good. Maybe buy a small position before earnings and step in to your full position over time.
I guess I must be financially incompetent. But let me explain why EBIDTA is used because I must be so incompetent. Its simply a proxy for cashflow that is capital structure neutral. If a company is still growing, we use that proxy instead of earnings because by the time earnings matter, its already too late to be invested. You realize stocks with a PE of 10 or less are trash companies that are expected to be disrupted right? Its cheap for a reason. There's no growth or additional streams of revenue that company can get into. You will always miss opportunities if you only focus on earnings, but have a bias towards low P/E "value" companies that are junk. Don't sit high and mighty with a false sense of understanding (or lack of understanding) of when to use EBITDA or earnings as a method of determining a good opportunity. Re: $INTC Ahhhh I understand why you're being so condescending.. bro you're probably bag holding INTC. Got it. lol, we don't need 10 years to see the performance. Give it 36 months, itll be dead money like since 2018. As a financial guru like you believe yourself to be... ask yourself. Do you believe that in the value chain, does "manufacturing" or the "foundry" business strike you as a high moat or high margin segment of the value chain? Do you know why since 2018 the stock price has been flat, even during incredibly high demand for chips through 2020+? INTC is getting its lunch eaten by AMD in the commercial server business and the margins are shrinking. Do you even understand the issues with the business? Or do you just see "cheap" and jump head first without formal analysis of the underlying issues? Let also guess, youre bag $BABA because its also so "cheap". Where as you're shitting on the cloud business that MSFT the 2nd dominate player. growing like wildfire in, with incredibly high stacked margins and its entrenched MOAT position, with diversified revenue streams between consumer + commercial customers. But please tell me why its such a overvalued trash company... Yes, lets print out our comment and revisit in 10 years. 10 years ago at 24, my portfolio was $150k, now.. $1.5M, maybe in 10 years, $10M? hmmm maybe, but I'm financially incompetent. So who knows. But I've had a good run.
> It’s only 26X ebidta EBITDA has a meaning: earnings before interest, depreciation, tax, amortisation. You know, if I look at the typical millenial's salary, and ignore mortgage interest costs, credit card debt costs, student loan interest costs, the costs of replacing the food they eat and the clothes that wear out, the stuff that breaks around the house, paying taxes, and so on, I really don't think millenials have anything to complain about. EBITDA figures are the last refuge of the financially incompetent. And 26x! Good lord. You can buy great stocks today on 10x GAAP earnings, i.e. 'not pretendy earnings'. > MSFT revenue growth going to be 20%+ over the next 5 years If I had a time machine like yours, I sure as fuck wouldn't be wasting my time posting here, I would be busy burying iphones amongst dinosaur bodies and making archeologists incredibly confused and upset. > $INTC. Like that’ll be a decade of bag holding.. It's a totally unrelated company/issue, but fwiw, I think Intel is going to have a great 10 years. There are only 3 companies in the world capable of current-gen semiconductor manufacturing for CPUs. Intel, Samsung, TSMC. As moats go, that's amazing. I want you to print out your comment, stash it in an envelope and look at it in ten years. Nothing in life is certain but I would guess the odds are probably 80-20 that Intel will be around and making excellent money, which is more than you can say for a lot of the companies in the market these days.
I currently hold about 100 positions, outside of about 20 ETFs (foreign and domestic). My big sell in 2021 (Q4) was Netflix. My big buys in 2021 were ATHA (Q3) and DISCK (Q4). My medium buys in 2021 were MU, INTC, BHP, VALE, BRK-B. Cost Basis is my over riding principle and ultimate determining factor. My small buys so far in 2022 are DIDI and HOOD. Also been swing trading Turkey (because of their new fiscal/currency policy) but don’t really enjoy swing trading. My five year goal is to transfer my entire portfolio into a fully automated system that I only tweak annually. As of now, I enjoy keeping my mind entwined with all this stuff; but I have other goals and need to free up more time and mental energy. My big recent loss has been EDF, when I tried to position in Q4 2021 for the upcoming European energy crises, particularly in Germany. The thesis played out but my position was incorrect. Was a small position but still sucks to be so wrong.
That's the nature of a bubble. V and MA are value stocks regularly with a PE of 40 too. However, the big difference is COST, V, and MA have PEs around 40, NVDA is over 80. You can't use trailing PEs and then forward PEs for another and call it a fair comparison. If 40 is the new "value" then maybe 80 is growth for someone else. Now compare that to AMD and INTC with PEs of 42 and 11 respectively and I think that makes more sense in the traditional comparison.
I think INTC is a better value then either MSFT or NVDA right now. There’s no reason to believe any of them will be gone in 40 years. In that time, they will all have good and bad leadership, make good and bad decisions, and go up and down. They are all established companies with good moats, so the odds favor all of them doing well during your lifetime. Buy companies you believe will succeed in the long term but are currently undervalued. The tough part is realizing undervalued companies are unpopular at the moment. So you’ll be going against the crowd.
Not going to identify what company I am with but I can tell you with 100% confidence that AAPL AMD AMZN INTC MSFT NVDA do not operate this way across the majority of each company. I have a deep network of college friends that span these companies. Sure there's woke bullshit subcultures in some parts but it is not normal. WFH burnout among single people is real though. Many of us want to get back in there because it is a large part of our social lives. New people in my part of the tech stack are mostly doing fine work, even college grads that need mentorship. I do feel that the hardware side validation is slipping and there might be a major GUH ship to the public in the next few years. Hardware products designed entirely post-Covid will begin shipping this year. But also, I could be as full of shit as the twitter person. Don't trust anything you read on the internet.
It’s only 26X ebidta for an incredibly resilient company. Boom or work from home, whatever, they’ll keep on ticking. The market values that business highly. Azure cloud is in fact growing and yes, it’s being rewarded a rich multiple. Not everything is rewarded a static P/S. MSFT revenue growth going to be 20%+ over the next 5 years, this isn’t the Balmer years. Keep in mind, companies that are considered “cheap” are cheap for a reason. $INTC. Like that’ll be a decade of bag holding..
It’s super cheap, look at the P/E compared to other tech. Intel is opening up massive fabs in US and Europe, and is going to be opening them up to outside production just like TSM does. They get shit on for their mistakes in recent years, rightfully so, but they are an absolute sleeping giant. I’m long INTC , already made good gains but I see it 2-4x in the next couple years.
A lot of high growth stocks in the dot com bubble sank 70%+. That includes now major companies like Amazon (sank 95%, took 10+ years to recover), AAPL (sank 80%+, took about 5 years to recover), MSFT (sank 70%+, took 14 years to recover), INTC (sank 85%+, took 15 years to recover). The 2000s were referred to as the lost decade for stocks, two major collapses (2000 & 2008). I'm not saying that'll happen, because no one knows...but if you think any stock is incapable of experiencing an almost total loss, you'd be mistaken. Intel and Microsoft were highly regarded in 2000 (not so much amazon or apple, but we see what they've become) and still suffered major losses. I've got to say though, it feels like the bubble is definitely deflating at this point.
Imagine having Citigroup 2023 LEAPS that give you a cost basis of like $63 a share and then selling 2/18 $62.50 covered calls for $1.70. Also sold INTC $55 covered calls against my Intel LEAPS. The one time I’m actually right about a stock, I sell CCs against the long, essentially limiting my gains to a few percent. Fuck Theta Gang.
INTC won't be. I think people who say this don't really understand how far behind INTC is or understand the semi space at all. Simply being a "semi" company isn't sufficient in comparing them, and labeling INTC as a play because they are american and somehow have engrained domestic preference (false) is the wrong way to think about it. Intel already has to outsource their 7nm chip production to TSMC.
I can't think of many, tbh. Perhaps there may be some transportation benefits as well for domestic firms (closer proximity, customs, etc.) from buying INTC semis. That being said, the main advantage I see from INTC's domestic position is they are likely to get a bigger chunk of the pie of any federal subsidies for semis. This ultimately benefits shareholders by lowering the net capex needed for additional capacity.
Hey, thanks! Ya, I think on first read I took the statement as INTC will exclusively enjoy incentives from the US and therefore is a better play than TSM. Whereas maybe the point was more Intel could eventually come to corner the defense market and therefore is also valuable..
Good news for everyone. Higher capex good for equipment stocks ASML, AMAT, LRCX and KLAC and customers by increasing supply. Higher sales and growth forecasts mean their customers - NVDA, AMD, AAPL, INTC, QCOM etc. are healthy.
Let’s go $AAPL, $AAL, and $INTC. Long on $AAPL and $AAL with shares and LEAPS. Sold a naked put FD on $INTC today to be on track with my gain schedule on it. Besides all of that, discovered the Wingman meta in Apex. Hard to use but broke a guy’s LV 3 shield in a single shot so I love the bugger now.
Here are mega tech that are at least 15% below 52-week high: ADBE, ASML, CRM, INTC, NVDA, ORCL [https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap\_mega,sec\_technology,ta\_highlow52w\_b15h&ft=3](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_mega,sec_technology,ta_highlow52w_b15h&ft=3)
Are you kidding? One of the knocks on INTC is their debt already. But there are several reasons why equity makes sense for the *people* involved as well. Board members and other large stake holders probably get a chance to buy the shares at a discount before they're offered to the public, which means they'll get quick cash infusions as well as INTC the company. They'll be able to offer shares of equity to the leadership of the mobileye team and their engineers, which gives everyone a nice carrot to chase in pursuit of their goals. Why are you so convinced raising capital via equity offerings mean they're not sure of their tech? Didn't FB go public? Didn't GOOGL go public? You're acting like INTC is selling here because they know it's a loser. That's not generally how markets work. Fuck, I mean, Pfizer spun off fucking Viagra! But you can bet all the people involved have a nice chunk of shares. It's not like Viagra is a loser.
Depends on how you view the bond market. It isn't really going to matter though if something like 2018 or worse than that happens. -20% in the Nasdaq and everything is going to go...it'll just be a matter of what does the "least bad", like NVDA dropped 50% in 2018 while Alphabet dropped about 21% (this is just in what I can grab). Heck, INTC dropped over 20% too.
I'm not buying back in for now, monopoly or not they live and die based on capex ordering by the foundries and they're priced for continued blockbuster years like 2021. While I don't think it's a boom bust cycle, 2021 was a huge year and since the ordering has already been put in for the most recent foundry expansions by TSM, INTC, and Samsung- in relative terms I think the ordering will decline for the time being and the stock will retract a bit more even without accounting for the impact of the fire. There will still be foundry upgrades, but not the same huge expansion by the foundries like this round of construction for at least a couple years when they need to retool for the next step up. That is, unless the trade restrictions are dropped to allow selling to China. But I don't see that ever happening.