LLY

IsaacNewtonArmadillo

$LLY

Regular_Objective914

Damn LLY.

CommunicationFit9367

LLY. I bought it when it tanked but it quickly shot up to 850. Eventually it went down to the low 700s and I decided I didn't want to risk it. Now look...... I'm such an idiot

Apprehensive-Size150

I don't regret any tbh. You cannot time or predict the market. I did recently buy LLY in the $600s and sold it in the $800s. Now it is over $1,000. But I do not regret selling it.

dvdmovie1

Biotech has enormous risks and when those materialize, the stock can often lose 50-60-70%+ in an instant. I've seen so many microcap biotechs talked up on Reddit over the years because they had a positive headline or someone read somewhere that a drug was promising and so many of these names never go anywhere. Not saying that the headline wasn't genuinely positive, but there's a much larger arc - especially for tiny biotechs - and a lot of them don't complete that arc for any number of reasons. A lot of them (especially tiny names) eventually turn out to be less than advertised. Even if someone finds a micro cap biotech they strongly think is long-term compelling, I'd still size the position as if it will be a very bumpy ride along the way and not a given. I enjoy investing in biotech but do limit the allocation to it because of the nature of it and generally don't go for microcaps. In terms of large pharma, there's also a number of examples of what happens to a growth name when the market starts to look forward and doesn't find enough compelling about the pipeline. NVO started to stumble in its race with LLY, didn't deliver on a compelling v2.0 obesity drug and a what started as a stumble has turned into a 65% decline and multiple quarters in a row where guidance was lowered. Years ago GILD was a hot stock because of Hep-C and Sovaldi - the moment that started to slow and there wasn't a next big thing in the pipeline, the stock cratered, wandered for several years and only recently broke above the 2015 high.

PaperHandsTheDip

As an investor - no - it's not printing money. I'm interested in investment returns - which it has not delivered, no. Just like you said - stock price is much more complex. I'm considering that as an investor, yes. The reason it's down and continues its down trend is that the future outlook doesn't look great given the competitive scene. Competitors (such as LLY) are making more effective drugs / solutions. New competitors are entering the race. Why would someone use novo's glp's when they could use lilly's which are more effective? Why does ozempic or wegovy demand such high premiums if competitors have similar products? Current financial numbers look great - but unless they improve their products to justify such high prices - it won't matter.

Wowmuchrya

If you were watching LLY and Merck all shot up while he was lying on TV. Nobody believes him.

Low_Plastic363

Puts on LLY, or assume mango is lying and drug companies will continue to set their own price for things we cannot live without...

Sick0h

B as in BRK E as in Elon A as in Amazon R as in robotics for NVDA S as in MicroSoft R as in robotics for GOOG F as in Facebook U as in United Health but LLY biggest health stock now. K is right next to J as in Steve Jobs for AAPL It’s all spelled out for you.

No-Improvement3164

LLY has to be the most over bought stock at the moment

Heavy-Resolution-284

Yes, I learned that lesson. I sold a third a couple years ago leaving some money on the table. I’ve learned when you have a great company with nothing but an open runway in front of it. There is nothing wrong with letting your winners run. I’m doing that currently with LLY and AVGO both also better than 15x

RonMexico16

I think LLY and NVO (a better value play at the moment) could both 10x in 10 years. There’s a future where 1/3 of the world is on GLP-1’s. These things are the wonder drug people have been hoping for and are just getting started.

No-Improvement3164

I think they are going to keep buying LLY until the RSI and MACD blows into the bottom of my chart with the green candles. WTF

prostatefinancer

Eli Lilli (LLY) Im suprised no one's said this one, because glp 1 agonists (weight lose drugs) i.e. Ozempic and retatrutide are on the rise. I reckon especially with the early human trials of reta only just recently being undertaken with the release of reta theirs going to be massive profits. Especially when u look at the massive amounts of rising obesity pretty much globally, theirs basically a expanding need for them.

Impressive_Trick_573

Calls on LLY

WickedSensitiveCrew

His top stocks for 2025 he constantly mentions are well known. Though it goes against the Jim Cramer bashing of this thread the are NVIDIA (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD),Eli Lilly (LLY),Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL).

r2002

I've had some decent success with moonshot stocks -- got in on LLY, RDDT, HOOD, SOFI, NVDA, and APLD at very low prices. But I'm getting tired of the energy it takes to find the "next big thing". So I have a big chunk of my money on two solid growth companies, a growth ETF, and BMNR is my moonshot. * Google * Amazon * GRNNY * BMNR

sicklyslick

Mag7 (and other large caps like LLY) have the revenue to back up it's evaluations, albeit high at times. Small/mid caps (like rocket labs) are the real overvalued companies because their current evaluation is purely based on future speculation, rather than current performance.

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

GOOGL, LLY, JNJ all down...but at least NVDA bagholders are going down with me, so I guess it's alright.

Hungry-Brain-3287

Why come LLY down

No-Improvement3164

I could drive a semi truck thru the spread on LLY 12/19 puts. Crooks.

Aggravating_Mix_5737

LLY had enough lol

No-Improvement3164

Anyone looked at the 1yr MACD and RSI on LLY? 😂😂

dotdottydottydot

When LLY puts

dotdottydottydot

All in LLY puts

gopoohgo

NVO.   Pill GLP1, new more effective 2nd gen, Medicare coverage are all tailwinds.    And it's dirt cheap compared to LLY

No-Improvement3164

The only companies at ATH on my watchlist were GOOG LLY and Apple. Everything else sold off considerably while SPY closed in on ATH. I understand the the Cactus in the anoos feeling

BigShmokeBuffer

But if you do gamble, gamble on drugs… LLY 1200c

Lunar_Excursion

OASIS-4 was a 307 patient trial with 79% women and 92% white. the ATTAIN-1 trial was 3127 patients with only 64% women, 57% white, 29% asian. i think you will find in the real world that they are a lot more comparable than you think. look at only the headline 16% number without context and make financial decisions on it. you do you... you can't compare across trials. as you can see by the demographic data and study size of OASIS-4, things need to be seen in context. oral amycretin is by far NVO's most exciting drug in its pipeline but i digress. more data is needed to make any real assertion. if NVO had balls they would place amycretin and tirz in a head to head trial to prove superiority, but i think NVO doesnt have the balls because if it goes against them, their stock will CRATER... there actually IS an "oral retatrutide", they have an oral GGG tri-agonist in phase 1... you think LLY just sitting on their laurels like NVO? they also have naperiglipron another oral small molecule in phase 2 right now...

No-Improvement3164

I think LLY may have topped today

dotdottydottydot

How has LLY not dumped yet

No-Improvement3164

I thought it was impossible for LLY to be red

EffectivePoet4572

once that LLY pill comes out for 150 a month, im gonna have 6 pack abs within 2 months

Dritzz-9966

Not really, LLY has the brand now. Look at their tirzepatide revenue/growth and compare those to semaglutide. It's pretty crazy. LLY is eating NVO's lunch right now. That's why it's priced so much higher than NVO and why NVO is on a free fall. I'm not saying NVO isn't a good buy. If they can do quality M&A (the only option is pretty much VKTX), then they will have both the product and the marketing/supply chain to compete with LLY. This would be extremely bullish for NVO. But they NEED m&a. What they have now is not enough.

Sensitive_Pilot3689

LLY, the cateye Duramax hell yea brother

twostroke1

LLY up to $1110… Prob pumping due to all the food and sugar ingested during Thanksgiving, diabetes and obesity rates will rise like no other. Thanksgiving is psyop by big pharma.

option-trader

Well, LLY is on some run the last 2-3 weeks.

Dritzz-9966

I think the safer stock is LLY. It's a powerhorse. Probably won't see crazy share price movement though. Want to gamble on potential M&A? NVO. But if they fail to get deals done, then I wouldn't like the stock. High risk high reward? VKTX. Disclaimer: I own both VKTX and LLY shares.

witcher252

LLY

sickdawg0311

Why does the big guys like BofA hate OSCR and HIMS so much? The amount of fud they constantly put out on these two is incredible. Every single time they start to break out. Meanwhile they are in bed with LLY. Giant fucking scam.

shivaswrath

Rookie numbers. $162,000 of LLY would've yielded $5mil today.

Dritzz-9966

NVO is old news. The new thing is dual agent GLP GIP (NVO is single GLP) such as tirzepatide from LLY. Better efficacy, better tolerability, a lot less side effects like nausea/vomiting. LLY is actually not up that much. They have crazy growth with tirzepatide (especially if you compare it to NVO's semaglutide, which is in the low single digits) and are price very, very, very conservatively. Lots of room to grow. NVO is riskier because as I said they don't have a dual GLP GIP and their internal pipeline is not great. Which is why they tried (and failed) to acquire MTSR recently. They will try again with VKTX imo, if they do get it, they may be able to compete with LLY => NVO may grow 500%+ in the next 5 years, easily.

throwingitanyway

the brakes on the LLY train burned up weeks ago

lipmanz

Imagine the seasonality of orforglipron during the holidays $$$ LLY

Lunar_Excursion

peptides are cheap... small molecule is cheaper... and can be done at scale. either way you cut it, LLY holds the pricing power... first of all you can't compare between trials, but anyways... amycretin is a nice drug, but they will have to prove not only weight loss, but lean muscle mass retention. that is the moving target that retatrutide and later bimagrumab are being developed for. LLY is far, far ahead of NVO... while NVO fell on its face with the EVOKE trial results, LLY has an FDA approved Kisunla removing amyloid plaques right now... and a subcutaneous drug, remternetug, in phase 3...

Antiwhippy

GOOG babs talking about parabolic when LLY overlapped them

No-Improvement3164

Everyone talking about GOOG up $160 while LLY is up $500.

29InchWaistOrStarve

LLY up 80% since August in a straight line

LazerBurken

Wtf is going on with LLY?? PE of 54 for a pharmaceutical company when Mango slashed the price on fatty meds by 80 fucking percent. How? The math does not math. Puts should 100% print next earnings report, but it's probably like tesla now only trading on vibes.

lostinspacs

LLY going parabolic

listenheredammit

Ole faithful LLY went over $1100 🥹🥹

banditcleaner2

and to think I was worried about getting assigned LLY at $700, fucking end me

The_real_Covfefe-19

Big LLY is unstoppable.

xXFoxyGrandpaXx

So fortunate to have sold my GOOGL and LLY calls in July. Would have hated to make any money

_thispageexists

Jacked to the tits on LLY

moonlanding12223

At what point does the lion sell his LLY stock

_ZergelGaming_

Why is LLY pumping so hard?

fledgling66

Haha that was me. Currently up 56% on LLY.

SunriseSurprise

I don't know what's worse, the AI bubble or now the LLY bubble.

patelchief90

LLY hasn’t had a red day since earnings holy shit

alien-observer-37491

Market has a good day, LLY goes up Market has a bad day, LLY goes up NVO releases bad trial data, LLY goes up NVO releases good trial data , LLY goes up A day occurs , LLY goes up

twostroke1

LLY on an absolute tear. Up 75% since August…

Swiftnice

Did LLY say A.I. in an earnings report or something? WTF it's like a tech stock now.

Tachiiderp

It's definitely not just sentiment. Eli Lilly has the better weight loss drug and in the pharma space, if you're not #1, then you better have good pricing which novo is way too late to change. That's why only after 60% drop from ATH did the trust finally come in and fired the CEO as well as change several board members. novo looks like a classic Intel back in the days. It was the leader for a long time and lost to a competitor. Only time will tell if it continues to be Intel or become a strong company to become a duopoly with LLY.

deevee12

All in on the Wall-E portfolio: Mag7 + NFLX + LLY The future is humans glued to a screen riding around in autonomous vehicles, popping fat pills as AI takes care of their daily needs

greyenlightenment

LLY is the ultimate obesity drug company. NVO lost the war. the equivalent of Yahoo vs Google.

BigPapaSnickers

I sold LLY at 960. It can always be worse!

BigFuckHead_

honestly bro just go with UNH or LLY, this one might be cooked. I hold though.

The_Cawing_Chemist

Someone does have a market leading Alzheimer’s drug - Novo’s rival LLY

The_Cawing_Chemist

Yeah I’m down to buy a few shares now, at their 52 week low, but I don’t have high hopes. LLY is going to eat their lunch.

Constant-Bridge3690

I'm a long-term investor so not focused on daily news. I look at the 1 year sales forecast as summarized in Yahoo Finance: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/analysis/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/analysis/) Right now, the forecast is 19% sales growth for 2026. Any clinical trial news will get filtered through this number. Then I update the Value Score. Above 2.0 is a buy; below 1.0 is a sell. LLY's score today is 2.07, so still a buy.

GringottsWizardBank

Even something like LLY is an unsuccessful drug trial or two away from a serious multiple contraction

Both-Major-3991

All you had to do was to invest in LLY

31andnotdone

the truth is that you can buy peptides of the same drugs for cheaper than the reduced cost anyway It's really a nothing burger outside of being a loss for LLY long term.

Antiwhippy

>LLY shares feel because NVO was bad The fuck. 

greenmoustache

The GLP1 is obviously a huge driver here but LLY also has some awesome stuff in the pipeline like their breast cancer and Alzheimer’s drugs. When it tanked after the $150 statement from the White House it was an absolute bargain going into earnings.

Just-Veterinarian859

Yes. Many times . I have club subscription and watch cnbc among others . He made buy calls on LLY at $300, NVDA at $4 (split adjusted), aapl at $ 3 (split adjusted ), Elf at $8, AMD at $8, OKLO at $15 then sell at $160 in two months, CEG at $64, GE at $39 before split (now GEV is $550 and Ge is $300) and so many more. 10 year portfolio performance 29%.

freeze_god69

Gonna be the magnificent 8 soon thanks to LLY 🤫

OpeDefinitely

When my grandma was baking, she would always sing a song whose chorus was: "I don't want her, you can have her, she's too fat for meeee." One time in particular, when I was maybe 10 or 11, my grandma and I were baking and I started singing the song, as we always did. But this time, my fat aunt was on the way from one state over to visit. My grandma said "make sure you don't sing that when your aunt gets here", then chuckled & started singing with me. After baking that day, I started thinking about my aunt's fatness & came to the conclusion that she probably couldn't ride a bike. The second my aunt arrived, I bet her $20 that she couldn't ride a bike. I was careful not to tell her why I thought she couldn't ride a bike. My aunt took me up on the bet & rode my grandma's bike around the neighborhood. I lost $20, and afterwards, my aunt yelled "OpeDefinitely thought I was too fat to ride a bike but I just earned $20." Good times. It's too bad that $LLY solved obesity because no kids will have childhood experiences like that anymore. Anyway, I just Googled the lyrics and it turns out that the song about fat women that my grandma & I sang while baking is a real produced song from the 1940s. I wasn't expecting that... The full thing is fucking hilarious. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dbmY58K6Xg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dbmY58K6Xg)

SkierBuck

I haven’t dug into the three stocks you mentioned very deeply, but when I look at Yahoo Finance I’m seeing Roche with around 15% profit margin and LLY just over 30%. That’s showing that the total profit is closer than I thought (LLY’s about 10% higher). If you’re looking at different numbers, I’m open to hearing that. Combine the better margins with significantly better sales growth and it seems perfectly natural to think LLY should get a markedly better multiple. Does that mean it should be a P/E over 50? Probably not. But it shouldn’t be valued like a plodding drug company when it has a very different growth story currently.

random_ass_eater

same, I only loaded up on it after seeing how effective Mounjaro is on many of my (formerly) fat friends, even my gymrat friends are taking them to control their weight now. aside from drug efficacy, LLY wins over NVO because NVO fucked up their supply chain and have incompetent execs. LLY also has a range of other products, not just weight loss drugs. Yes the stock price is high but you get what you pay for, always. NVO holders are cooked for the near future.

Plus_Seesaw2023

The gross profit margin is exactly the same for LLY Roche and Novartis. Around 75%-80%. Except that LLY's PE ratio is 34, while NVS and Roche are at 14. Then, as I said, large US funds and friends of the Orange Man are buying up US stocks much more out of patriotism. Eli Lilly’s net margin looks high today because of one thing: obesity drugs. Roche, on the other hand: Has higher absolute earnings (profit dollars), Roche, total revenues at 80B, LLY at 59B. Roche Generates more revenue, Has multiple diversified blockbuster franchises, Has lower valuation risk, and Trades at a fraction of LLY’s valuation... **if LLY were valued the same way as European pharma, it would be worth half what it is today.**

stickman07738

Some people will hate my strategy but it works for me as I retired early 12 years ago and been living the good life. One of the most important things in investing (not gambling) is to have both a downside and upside strategy. For my downside strategy, it is simple - if I loses \~15-20% of my original investment dollars, I am out and ask what did I miss or were there any over-riding events (war, terrorism, ..). I will continue to watch but rarely do I average down as I view this as throwing good money after bad. You need to remember if you lose 50%, the stock needs to double just to get to even (that just does not happen often). For the upside (makes sure you have a price target based on your DD and actively monitor), I typically sell 1/3 or 1/4 if it grows 25-50% (no harm in taking profits). If it doubles, I sell half and let the remainder ride as I view these as "free" shares from my original investment dollars. They become part of "hold and forget" portfolio that I only tap if I need the money for a big purchase (car, home remodel, vacation...). Today, my "hold and forget" include HON (\~$30), META ($19), AMD ($2), GE ($6), LLY ($60), BRK.B ($101). HON is my largest individual holding in the high 6-figures today. Slow and steady wins the race. Avoid FOMO and YOLO. Good Luck

No-Fun6980

When I was considering NVO vs LLY I went through all the weight loss subreddits and found out people loved using LLY's drugs way more than NVO's considering side effects. So I bought lily.

Bane68

Some stocks can really take you on a wild ride. Doing okay, doing okay, BOOM! I think they’ll stay on a heater until at least the mid 2030s. And it’s amazing how many years they’ve been in the green. If you’re ever bored and want to post your entire port with share totals and values, I’d be fascinated to see it. Your AAPL and LLY positions alone turned out to be such insane wins.

ThanklessWaterHeater

Honestly LLY has been strange one.  It was kind of a boring blue chip when purchased.  It took more than 20 years to grow from 20k to 200k. Which is not terrible, but if I’m putting two decades into it I like to see a little more than 10 fold.  But then it changed: just since 2009 it’s grown 31 fold, and seems likely to continue, given their pipeline. I don’t know what the lesson is.  Probably isn’t one other than ‘when you have a good one, don’t sell it.’

xploeris

I'm in NVO so I hope you're right - not sure how they'll do against LLY.

phooonix

It's 5% more weight loss, that's 40% better efficacy, with fewer side effects. LLY is objectively better and has another upgrade coming in '26.

ValueOfADollar

I remember staring at my LLY leap buy order when it dropped to 630 post earnings on great numbers and never executing them

Plus_Seesaw2023

like i said... “The algos are buying US stocks in bulk because the money comes from the US. That’s it." Otherwise, Novartis, Roche, or even Novo should be worth twice as much as LLY!

callsonreddit

Yup. LLY got bullish momentum unlike NVO

MisterFox17

can´t wait for the LLY x McD Crossover

Puzzleheaded_War6102

I tried both fat shots. Zep is much more effective with less side effect. There is a reason more drs prescribe it and people willing to pay a premium. Even the fat pills war, LLY is showing better results and has the infrastructure built for mass production.

LazerBurken

Mango lowered the price on GLP1 drugs for obesity by 80% (from just six months ago). LLY Is extremely over valued at PE of 52. Their earnings and margins will take a massive hit and it will show in Q1 or Q2. They will need to 4-5x their sales, in volume, just to cover this gap.

Playbookof3li

I’d take the us stock in the obesity market. LLY also does more than just weight loss and nvo had some recent dysfunction with their board of directors getting fired last month. But yeah you’re not wrong

callsonreddit

LLY was under the radar for me since i avoid pharma stocks due to rug pulls. But i feel this and GOOG are safe stocks

ThanklessWaterHeater

:-) Credit this one to my mother, not me. She invested $20k in LLY back in 1988; it’s now 6,400 shares worth $6.8mm. 

Lunar_Excursion

priority voucher means fda approval in 1 to 2 months... it will not be a significant difference... in fact many conspiracy theorist NVO bagholders are scared the FDA will give approval to LLY first as an american company... long term, short term, every term small molecule will eventually win...

fisrtMonkeyOnTheMoon

Same, waymo has potential upside of trillions. Isomorphic Labs has billions in contracts with LLY.

Exciting-Adeptness11

My issue with NVOs pill versus LLY’s pill is convenience. NVO’s pill must be taken on an empty stomach in the morning and you are not allowed to eat or drink for 30 mins after. LLY’s pill can be taken anytime of day and with or without food. So this option will fit into people’s lifestyle habits better