LNG

nascarhero

Y’all forget when we blew up nordstream and made Europe buy LNG from us?

JeffTheOmega1

PVL Penny Oil/LNG etf pays monthly cash dividends with oil going crazy n going to be high for a while the divys should increase in value Went over $5 during the height of Ukraine war Low unit as well with options

Brokenandburnt

The real demand isn't personal transportation. Trucks, the merchant vessels, air transportation all militaries worldwide burns fuel. Then there's all chemicals besides fuel, lubrication for instance, and also all plastics. And let's not forget that LNG also lost about a 20% chunk of supply.  Gasoline is one thing. One small thing. Every good that we buy, whether it's food, clothing or sex toys, it will **all** go up in price.

jordanwiththefade

Onshore LNG is about to be very valuable. USA can’t extradite itself out of this war. Energy prices haven’t begun to skyrocket.

Mavnas

But you're only allowed to mint it if you can prove the energy you used came from oil or LNG.

reaper527

> Despite what the people who seem to want a green SPY Monday are saying, there is not breaking news regarding a change in Iran's policy. given that a week ago they were attacking indian ships, and yesterday they let multiple indian ships with LNG go through without a problem, that claim is objectively false. there absolutely has been a change.

ModeForJoe

25% worldwide LNG supply... yikes!

TabulatorSpalte

Fertiliser I don’t know, but for LNG it’s also less than 10%. Qatar is the biggest exporter to EU in that region at 3.8% https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from/

SacredUndeadMonkey

They get a lot of LNG, and inorganic fertilizer from the region. I was Already the fertilizer aspect is popping up in UK politician talking points.

BluesFlute

I’m surprised that crude oil is not higher. Are people blind to the problem? Or are there other factors? Energy sec’y D Bergrum said that there had been discussion about US government using influence in the oil futures market. He said it would require a large amt of capital. Maybe that’s not surprising given that the Treasury Secy is a hedge fund guy. Government is not supposed to manipulate futures markets… but I wouldn’t put it past these guys. And if the deal goes bad and billions are lost…oh well…it’s OPM. We will likely know how this turns out in the next 2weeks. Other than a few modest long positions in XLE, LNG, I’m risk off.

PinealTone

Only 1 country will feel the full impact of this blockage - Japan. They get 70% of their oil and LNG from the gulf states. The rest of the world only about 20- 25%.. so while bad, they can live without it. Japan is cooked.

LeeS121

I’m up 89% since Jan 1 2026… “VG” (Venture Global - Nasdaq) with a lot of room to run by Sept when I expect CP2 to begin shipping LNG and it’s a long term hold, they are already shipping from CP and Plaquemines. Will end up being the largest LNG company in the country before next year and the largest in the world in @2-3 years. Heavy debt in build out offset by long term contracts. A couple of arbitration cases has held stock price back, 1 loss, 2 wins and 3 to be decided. Once these cases are all decided, litigation should be apart of the past of a startup company. Middle East conflict has pushed the price up but started the same day as earnings release so unsure which helped it more. Price for LNG in Europe and Asia have jumped significantly and since VG has the largest production available to the open market so spot pricing should help 1st quarter earnings most favorably. May be a small pullback once the conflict ends but I believe tailwinds begin following the 2nd quarter earnings call. Get the litigation behind em’, paying off debt, increase the dividend significantly and they are off to the races! JMO Best of luck to everyone’s investments… I feel very good about mine!

IntergalacticBurn

I took a small bet in VG a while back, and it has surprised me, lol. Although, it's probably because it's an LNG stock, and that's what's in demand right now because of the war.

Crazy_Donkies

America doesn't need the Strait. We get 7% of our oil through it and zero LNG. USO is dumping 20%.

Trader0721

When output is at 100% for LNG exporters…there’s not much new demand for domestic gas…it’s entirely weather driven

DuckTalesOohOoh

LNG comes from the US, for the most part.

Trader0721

LNG…yes…US gas…not so much

ahx3000

Urea fertilizer prices will go through the roof (apparently) as they are mainly manufactured by LNG - Qatars major export 

a1004

Thanks. I was thinking names like LNG, everyone is focused in oil, but is quite normal after USA retires from Iran, the blockade to Qatar (maybe partial, allowing deliveries to China) might continue. If so, it would squeeze the gas markets.

dakdude

Yeah I think there’s less risk of outright manipulation in fertilizer stocks than oil as well but I’m worried there might be gov intervention with the price gouging questions etc that have come up which the market my react to. I picked up CF and MOS on the dip yesterday, hopefully I don’t get cooked. Also in VG for US LNG exposure. Hard for him to TACO out of the current situation overall, but the market tends to overreact to his bluster

WrexyWrex

I'm going to sum this up for everyone because a lot of the discussion here is missing the bigger picture. First: the logic behind a lot of current policy **does make sense if you assume a zero-sum worldview**. I personally think that worldview is terrible and historically destructive — the idea that the economic pie can't grow is basically brain-dead economics — but that’s the ideological framework driving a lot of decisions right now. Good reading on this concept: [https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-zero-sum-idea-trap.html](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-zero-sum-idea-trap.html) Also relevant: [https://archive.ph/DhazW](https://archive.ph/DhazW) Financial Times summarized 2025 labor data showing **native-born unemployment increased while immigrant unemployment stayed stable**, noting that native and foreign workers tend to be **complements rather than substitutes**. When firms can't hire immigrant labor, they often **scale back operations entirely**, which can actually reduce demand for native workers. But I digress. Also worth separating **Trump from the broader U.S. strategic apparatus**. The U.S. intelligence community has massive resources and long-term strategic planning that spans administrations. This isn’t giving Trump credit — it’s just acknowledging the institutional capability that exists. Okay, here we go. --- ### Quick timeline of the U.S.–China trade conflict **Pre-2018:** U.S.–China trade mostly operated under **WTO rules and MFN tariff rates**. Tariffs existed but were limited and there was **no large-scale tariff war**. **2018 – Trade war begins:** The U.S. imposed **Section 301 tariffs** over Chinese tech transfer and intellectual property practices. China retaliated with tariffs targeting **U.S. agriculture (especially soybeans)** and **automobiles**. **2020 – Phase One deal:** Before the agreement, Chinese tariffs averaged **~21%** and covered **~58% of U.S. exports to China**. The deal cooled tensions somewhat, but **most tariffs remained in place**. **2025 – Major escalation:** During Trump's second term things escalated dramatically. * U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods jumped to **125–145%** * Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods reached **125–147%** China also retaliated with: * bans on some **U.S. agricultural imports** * **10% tariffs on crude oil** * **15% tariffs on LNG and coal** **Non-tariff pressure from China:** Tariffs were only part of the story. China also leveraged structural advantages. * Export controls on **gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and heavy rare earths** * Blacklisting U.S. firms via the **Unreliable Entity List** * Regulatory pressure like **antitrust and anti-dumping investigations** These materials are critical to **semiconductors, electronics, and defense manufacturing**, which gives China leverage far beyond tariffs. **2025–2026 energy conflict:** Energy became another pressure point. * China imposed tariffs on U.S. oil, LNG, and coal. * U.S. crude exports to China **fell about 72% by 2026**. * China also threatened retaliation after U.S. sanctions on smaller Chinese refineries processing sanctioned oil. Late 2025 brought a partial truce: * **U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to ~23–24%** * **Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods dropped to ~10%** But tensions remain high and both sides have continued investigating each other's industrial policies. --- ### The part people are missing The trade war isn't just about tariffs anymore. It's about **energy supply chains** and **who controls them**. China has been able to keep costs down partly because its refiners can buy **discounted crude from sanctioned producers** — mainly **Russia and Iran**. At the same time: * **Ukraine has been hitting Russian oil infrastructure**, disrupting exports. * The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese refineries processing **Iranian crude**. * Pressure is increasing on oil flows connected to **Iran and Venezuela**, which are major sanctioned suppliers feeding the same discounted oil ecosystem. And this matters a lot more than people realize because of China's energy demand. China currently needs roughly **11 million barrels of imported oil per day**. Despite what people often say, China is **still a massive net oil importer**, and it's still in the middle of heavy industrialization. About **50% of those imports move through the Strait of Hormuz**, and a significant share of the rest comes from **Russia**. That means disruptions in: * **Iran** * **Venezuela** * **Russian exports** * or shipping through **Hormuz** all hit China’s energy system directly. So when you fast-forward to today's conflicts around **Iran or Venezuela**, they aren't just isolated geopolitical disputes. They are **choke points in the global oil system that China relies on for discounted supply**. Disrupt those flows and you **raise China's input costs**, weaken its refinery advantage, and apply pressure in the broader economic standoff. Which leads to the real strategic question right now: **Does China step in?** Because the reality is that the current disruptions are **arguably hurting China more than anyone else**, despite a lot of public narratives saying otherwise. In other words: This isn't primarily an **Iran issue**. It's part of a broader **strategic pressure campaign aimed at China's energy access and industrial cost structure**.

FistEnergy

Iran has publicly announced that UAE oil infrastructure will be targeted and destroyed in the next few hours. They are retaliating for Kharg Island. Meanwhile, in Yemen: "Yemen’s Houthis have announced they’ll be joining the war in support of Iran shortly. Analysts expect them to shut down another strait, Bab El-Mandeb, which will close the Suez Canal." the next level of escalation is here. The new floor for oil is $125 and the American financial markets have already emptied their bag of tricks to suppress it. $150 is a real possibility now. Not to mention LNG, helium, fertilizer, etc. Not good!

JOPAPatch

[Yes they have.](https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/3/4/which-oil-and-gas-facilities-in-the-gulf-have-been-attacked) Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura oil refinery: 2x >First attack was intercepted but debris fell and caused a fire. Second intercepted, no damage. Qatar – Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG facilities: 1x >Intercepted, no damage. Qatar – Mesaieed Industrial City: 1x >Intercepted, no damage. UAE – Fujairah and Mussafah oil terminals: 2x >First attack was successful, caused damage. Second attack was intercepted, debris caused a fire. Oman – ports of Duqm and Salalah: 2x >First attack hit oil terminals at Duqm, caused damage and fires. Second attack, hit fuel transfer infrastructure, caused damage.

yyn1999

no they get all their LNG from Katar etc

iforgotitagin

Yeah lower LNG prices were helpful to non US growth last year. Higher energy prices could actually be a tailwind for the US economy this year. Unlike years past when the US was an energy importer. That being said the S&P 500 is ridiculously valued and I would avoid it like the plague. A lost decade for the S&P from current valuations is a reasonable expectation.

emporium4648

Iran allowed India to pass 2 of its LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the release of 3 Iranian oil tankers that had been seized by India, according to reports. The era of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is over. Iran is collecting debts in exchange for sea passage. If any American vessel wants to pass, we must forst see a threesome between JD, Pete and Karolin. Melanie will be directing the scene!

LingonberryKey2434

Qatar's warning maps to a scenario we've been tracking closely - the "Gulf force majeure cascade." Historical analog: 1973 Arab oil embargo triggered a 400% oil price surge over 6 months. The difference now is LNG is also in the mix, which wasn't a factor in '73. If Qatar's Ras Laffan stays offline and other exporters follow with force majeure declarations, $150/barrel is actually conservative. Asian LNG buyers will be in a bidding war with Europe within weeks. The position: long Brent, long LNG exposure (LNG, FLNG), short airlines and petrochemicals.

ai___________

Why don’t you just buy LNG?

Bigamungus

Hear me out. Long on Teucrium Wheat. Strait of Moose causing a spike in LNG costs will directly impact fertilizer production, primarily nitrogen fertilizers, which will naturally drive up the costs of various cash crops. Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk

throwawaydonaldinho

If you still want an energy play but dont wanna touch oil here; 1 - NVDA makes in Taiwan via TSMC 2- Taiwan imports almost 100% of their energy. 3- 50% of this is LNG from Hormuz 4- Taiwan stores about 2 weeks worth in stocks. 5- TSMC consumes almost 10% of Taiwans energy. Do whatev you want with this.

Altruistic_Way_8238

The right defence stocks will benefit. AD expenditure might show up as a proportionately material revenue stream somewhere. LNG and oil producers will benefit. Thermal coal could, as this drags on, same for uranium. Refiners should benefit from crack spread. You probably don't want to be in rate sensitive stuff, but who knows how long this goes on for. As it stands, I'll probably go long vix every Friday ahead of Trump stewing in his own shit and the potential for huge fuck-ups doubling up over a weekend.

SigX1

Bear on oil. China has an estimated 300 day supply of oil. India and others are going to get oil from Russia as the U.S. lifts penalties. The US has oil but will lift the Jones Act so we can move it around easier. A bigger play may be LNG that comes out of the Middle East. The EU and several critical Asian partners need LNG more than oil. The wildest play may be Helium (yes, the gas). It is critical to semiconductor manufacturing. Approximately 50% of the helium used in semiconductor manufacturing comes from Qatar, straight across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Black Swan play may be drones. It’s estimated that the U.S. is two to three generations behind Russia, China and Ukraine in drone tech. They need to ramp up fast as conventional missile systems are too expensive and slow to manufacture. If Hormuz remains closed for another couple weeks, this could trigger Covid-like global supply chain issues. Oil goes into everything and LNG powers manufacturing. Helium is needed for semiconductors.

otetmarkets

Reports from FT/Reuters say Qatar’s energy minister warned the conflict could force Gulf exporters to halt shipments if it drags on, with big knock-on risks for LNG and oil pricing. Qatar has also declared force majeure after drone attacks on facilities, according to multiple outlets. In practical market terms, the key variable is whether flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay constrained, because that’s the choke point for a huge share of Gulf energy exports.

Crazy_Donkies

Sustained oil prices are actually worse for the EU and east Asia. Given how they source their oil and Asia being manufacturers.  America will be impacted, but we are more of a service and technology nation, get little LNG from anywhere, and a major net exporter of oil.  I'm not saying I'm only investing in America, because of other risks.  I'm just not sure there's a clear "relative safest place."

Crazy_Donkies

To say he has the world economy by the balls is laughable.  It's 20% of oil and LNG. Not 80%. In a long period of time economies will adjust.   Moreover.  It's a gross grand statement made to prop up your desire to see them drag this out.  It's completely how you said it. Here's how I know.   If I say "America has them by the balls" I guarantee you have a visceral reaction to it.  Even though all indications and data are America has the experience, capital, and military to factually have them by the balls.  You would downvote this ststement. The sheer fact you sit here and type "they will crush everyone" is because you can't bring yourself to cheer for America.  Fuck DJT and fuck this war.  But I will never say America is going to lose.   That's just completely quitter mentality and total bullshit.

Skittler_On_The_Roof

I feel dumb asking, but given their relatively small size and dependency on selling oil, isn't the economic part of this a little bit like a tricycle playing chicken with a Mack Truck? Fuck our admin and all, but the US sells a ton of oil and LNG.  They're driving up profits for some of our favorite industries ("drill baby drill") while, as far as I can tell, cutting off their lifeline in an economy that makes America's look stable. Correct me if I'm ignorant here.

Shot-Acanthaceae1420

Actually checked out map of Mid East today. We might be winning, and a regime that massacres 36,000 innocent protesters in a week deserves to be ousted, but 20% of global oil and LNG must sail on tankers within 20 miles of a wacko hostile nation‘s shores for a 200-mile stretch and markets are 5% off ATHs? 

Gold_Interaction5333

The real issue isn’t just the gas itself, it’s that helium is tied to LNG production. If gas processing stops, helium supply drops instantly because it’s a byproduct. That’s why the shutdowns in Qatar spooked markets and prices started jumping almost immediately.

tinydisaster

This is apocalypse. 20% or trivially less oil just went woosh. Maybe 5% is squeaking out. Oil goes down with 2m bbl surplus. This is a -15 minimum shortfall. That’s not even including refined products, LNG, fert.. Even if it opened today, Qatar’s LNG takes 30 days to cool back down, assuming it’s not in need of maintenance or hasn’t been damaged in the strikes.

LeatherMine

that's a shipping play: it's 1/3rd the price in US & barely budged much easier to move than LNG https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/sulfur-price-index/

CocaineFarmer1

I don’t think you understand! fertilizer, oil, sulphur, LNG ALL travels through the straights if this keeps going the world will be plunged into recession.

ga643953

Their neighbors. All those countries are exporting oil and LNG through the strait. And other countries around the world, including China need oil coming out of that region. If they are dead set on collapsing the world's economy, it's going to be world war 3, except this time, Iran is the only one standing on the other side of the aisle.

JacpSB

I been looking at Helium plays I like Pulsar Helium (https://pulsarhelium.com/) Pulsar Helium Inc. (OTCQX: PSRHF, TSXV: PLSR, AIM: PLSR) – Nevada-incorporated 2022, HQ Cascais, Portugal. Primary helium explorer (non-hydrocarbon linked) with **flagship Topaz project** (3,132 acres Minnesota, 2nd-highest He grade globally @ 5.1-8.1% He-4, plus rare He-3 for fusion/quantum). Tunu (Greenland) adds dual-project upside. 170M shares, \~$100-205M MC, pre-revenue (-$13.5M losses), cash burn drilling-funded via $10M+ raises. **Drilling Success** **Jetstream #1-7 nailed**: Sustained 7-8% He flows (Jet#1 peak 8.1%), 11.9ppb He-3 confirmed, BHP 1,292psi (Jet#5). #7 hit pressurized gas (737ft, targeting 5k ft) post-41mi seismic. Laterally extensive reservoir de-risked – first-mover in MN helium fairway w/ 65k acres leased + owned surface rights. **Diversification Plays** * **Quantum Hydrogen (80% stake via Oscillate PLC all-share, $400k full buyout option by '27)**: H2 pivot for clean energy revenue. * **Hybrid Hydrogen acquisition**: 5,742 acres Michigan UP (Topaz analog, low-cost helium entry). Breaks pure-play risk.​ **Macro Setup Perfect** Helium 95% natgas byproduct – ME LNG boom (Qatar +128MTPA) strained by Iran war/sanctions. Global prod 160M m³ vs. demand 175M+ (CAGR 3-6% to 230M by 2034). Prices +400%. Pulsar = US supply solution. **Valuation** Morningstar $4.53 (250%+ upside), analysts avg $58.67 (+5k%). RSI 83, vol spiking. Asymmetric: $1.20 entry → $5 NR pop → $20+ production. NFA/DYOR

TheRealWalrus0069

Eonr isn't done yet 2 to 4$. But if your wanting another $WTI - w&t offshore (WTI OIL) $GASS - stealth gas (LNG) both primed, WTI has lots of hype and GASS is debt free and has over 30 tankers in the mediterranean away from the war.

tinydisaster

60% of the proven LNG is in Persian Gulf. What’s your grid gonna run on? Soft French cheese?

big-papito

LNG is used as a fertilizer precursor, like a LOT, so we are doubly screwed.

Candid-Committee1758

$NFE (LNG STOCK) short the squeeze it’s time now!

TracyM45

And halted all 6 new LNG export terminals. Our allies would be immune to energy spikes

hyperoglyphe

Another interesting point to consider - the Strait of Hormuz situation is currently putting severe upward pressure on urea prices. Urea is produced from LNG and is the N in NPK for fertilizer - The US is a net exporter of phosphorus and potassium but an importer of nitrogen though it's my understanding the bulk of N in american fertilizer comes from ammonia and not urea. This will have a pass through effect on cost of feedstock - all livestock is impacted by this but beef and pork are hit considerably harder, I think because of inefficiency from being larger animals and also from their feedstocks being more nitrogen hungry (corn vs soy). This could work counter to your bet as cost of inputs go up but LNG and nitrogen both don't go far because they're a pain in the dick to ship so there are geographical considerations - it could also work for your bet in that eggs are more readily substituted for meat than the other way around. source: saw this in passing on hacker news earlier today, way more insightful discussion than what I can provide in the thread - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47345364

reflectedstars

Does LNG (the ticker) work?

OptimusTron222

30% of global lng exports are lost due to Hormuz strait being closed. Oil and LNG prices raise together in this situations

InfoLib_

You seem to be more familiar with the technical side than me. I know that the MAG7 is better equipped for this sort of stuff due to them having real business outside of AI. So the way that the hyperscaler companies reach ROI is from selling cloud services (I acknowledged that AWS and Azure had done well doing this) for AI training or hosting or what not. This is still circular AI economics, nothing is being created, just AI paying AI builders. 3rd parties buying AI is different. The bigger concern here is the, as you called it, frontier LLM companies. These companies still generate no profits and are burning cash senselessly, once these flashy new data centers go up, so will the prices (heaven forbid LNG prices stay up and make electricity even worse). MAG7 can stomach the data center stuff blowing up or lagging, the rest of the AI market really can't. They need constant optimism to keep liquidity flowing in and if it stops, the hyperscalers stop profiting off of AI. I really doubt most of these frontier companies will be able to flip LLMs into mass consumer and business products, earnings at most of these firms would have to go up by a factor of 10x or more. Do lenders keep funding unprofitable businesses until infra is ready? Do they keep doing it when the costs of business go up even higher? Again, P/E ratios are extremely high for many of these companies, especially outside of MAG7. Institutions would probably be totally fine running prices down to get in cheaper; there's plenty of time before everything is running and observable profits come in from non-data centers players. For the AI/LLM companies being buoyed by government contracts, they like all other companies in that boat, will be totally fine. I'm very curious to see how these other companies will keep revenue growing into the future.

kenseyx

If you believe the strait will be closed for long, there are still decent value oil&gas stocks out there, even in countries that have nothing to do with all of this, like PBR (Brazil), ARX.TO (Canada), WDS (Australia LNG).

MaleCowShitDetector

Yes and ... it's also the fact that over 40% of nitrogen fertilizers (and others too) flows through that strait, with the other major exporters being Russia primarily. But you also have Canada as a net exporter and... China. Obviously both Canada and Russia are not having the best relations with the US. Same goes for China which actually restricted exports of fertilizer. North and South America are net importers as well as most Asian countries. This planting season you have in mind is until May. It has nothing to do with war creating food scarcity. It is related to LNG, but usually importers of LNG dont produce much fertilizer... Exporters do. However this is one of those things, that fall under a lot of control. EU can easily cap the price and if they do it well, it becomes due to rising energy and shipping costs very expensive to move fertilizer to other countries that might pay more. Russia might be unsactioned, it's one of the reasons why the US was pushing for a peace deal with Ukraine. They knew they'd have to take on Iran. Which would complicate oil, gas and fertilizer prices. But here's the thing: Reddit would make you believe that Iran can fight in the Strait of Hormuz for months. And now CF is priced for about 6 months worth of fighting. But that's not the case. I won't comment how I know, you can either believe me or don't that's up to you. All I'm gonna say is that my source is the fact that I live in Israel.

throwawaydonaldinho

If you still want an energy play but dont wanna touch oil here; 1 - NVDA makes in Taiwan via TSMC 2- Taiwan imports almost 100% of their energy. 3- 50% of this is LNG from Hormuz 4- Taiwan stores about 2 weeks worth in stocks. 5- TSMC consumes almost 10% of Taiwans energy. Do whatevwr you want with this.

Dax420

Just made a quick 20% on PLSR thanks to this sub. With Quatar LNG offline 30% of the world's helium supplies evaporated overnight. US domestic helium mine that has helium 3 in the same quantities as the moon, this thing is going to explode.

Shapen361

I bought Shell. Price shock is worst for natural gas/LNG than oil and Shell is a big player. They are more dependent on Middle East than Chevron and Exxon but still, majority of revenues and supply come from elsewhere.

ihopethisworksfornow

Helium prices soar as Qatar LNG halt exposes fragile supply chain - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/helium-prices-soar-qatar-lng-halt-exposes-fragile-supply-chain-2026-03-12/

OptimusTron222

No, when there is a fuel shortage like this one, cars tend to not sell. It will be a terrible year for both ICE, Hybrid and even EV cars(no LNG means electricity shortage around the world)

throwawaydonaldinho

If you still want an energy play but dont wanna touch oil here; 1- NVDA makes in Taiwan via TSMC 2- Taiwan imports almost 100% of their energy. 3- 50% of this is LNG from Hormuz 4- Taiwan stores about 2 weeks worth in stocks. 5- TSMC consumes almost 10% of Taiwans energy. Do whatevwr you want with this.

jdohyeah

Long Australian LNG producers, their contract prices are locked to the Brent They'd also have 10-20% supply reserved for the spot market and if LNG can't pass through the straight, that's 20% of world supply offline, with no epic strategic reserve like we have with oil. They'll make a killing on the spot market too

HistoryVibesCanJive

This is hella interesting. Gonna go IN. The underlying story here is the shift in how these forecasts are being constructed. When survey respondents say they're factoring in expected leadership transitions at the Fed rather than purely data dependent policy, that's a meaningful change in how the market prices the rate path. The data case for a June cut is thin on its own merits. PCE running at 2.8%, energy costs up 40% with significant supply disruption still unresolved, and nearly 80% of respondents themselves acknowledging the greater risk is rates remaining elevated for longer. The tension between those views and a June cut forecast tells you the models are incorporating assumptions beyond the macroeconomic fundamentals. The concern worth watching is what this means for the long end of the curve. If rate cuts arrive while supply-driven inflation is still working through the system, the bond market will price in higher term premium regardless of what the front end does. That's the scenario where short rates fall but mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs actually rise. The worst of both worlds for consumers and businesses. More broadly, central bank credibility is a form of infrastructure. It takes decades to build and functions invisibly when it's working. The market's ability to trust that rate decisions are data-driven rather than calendar-driven is what keeps long-term borrowing costs anchored. That anchor is worth monitoring closely through the leadership transition, because once it slips, it's exceptionally difficult to restore. The economists in this survey appear to understand that. The careful language throughout suggests they're navigating a moment where the institutional framework they've relied on for decades is entering a period of genuine uncertainty. What I think we should actually do: Accept that $90+ oil is the new baseline for the foreseeable future and treat it as the forcing function for an emergency energy transition rather than a temporary disruption to be papered over with reserve releases. Specifically, a twelve month emergency infrastructure program with three pillars. First, demand reduction. This is the unpopular part. Immediate federal incentives for remote work adoption across every industry where it's feasible. Remote workers don't commute. Commuting accounts for roughly 30% of US gasoline consumption. You don't need to build anything. You don't need new technology. You just need employers to stop requiring people to drive to offices where they sit on Zoom calls. Tax credits for companies that shift to remote or hybrid. Penalty removal for companies that already want to but face lease obligations. This is the fastest demand reduction lever that exists and it costs almost nothing relative to the savings. Second, emergency permitting reform for domestic energy infrastructure. Not just oil and gas but nuclear, solar, wind, grid scale storage, and transmission lines. The bottleneck in American energy has never been technology or capital. It's permitting. Projects that should take two years take eight. An emergency framework that compresses permitting timelines to 12 months for energy projects of national significance, modeled on how the Defense Production Act accelerates military procurement, would unlock hundreds of projects that are currently sitting in regulatory queues. Third, strategic reorientation of the industrial base toward energy inputs that aren't routed through chokepoints controlled by adversaries. The lesson of this crisis isn't that we need more oil. It's that we need energy sources whose supply chains don't run through a 21 mile wide strait that any regional power can mine shut in a weekend. Every dollar spent refilling the SPR at $90+ is a dollar that could instead fund domestic energy infrastructure that permanently reduces our exposure to this exact scenario recurring. The hard truth is that reserve releases and rate cuts are painkillers. They manage symptoms while the underlying condition worsens. The underlying condition is structural energy dependence on a region that has now demonstrated, definitively, that it cannot be relied upon for stable supply regardless of who is in charge in Washington. This would be disruptive in the short term. It would face opposition from commercial real estate interests, from traditional energy incumbents who benefit from the current permitting regime, and from an institutional culture that treats emergencies as temporary rather than structural. But within twelve months it would meaningfully reduce demand side pressure on oil markets, begin delivering new domestic supply, and most importantly send a credible signal to global energy markets that the US is building toward independence rather than simply draining its reserves and hoping for the best. The market doesn't need reassurance right now. It needs a credible plan. And credible plans are the ones that acknowledge the structural problem rather than pretending it's transitory. And here's what changes if we actually do this. Say oil hits $200 anyway because the Strait stays closed longer than anyone expects. If remote work adoption has already cut commuting demand by even 20%, that's tens of millions of Americans who barely feel the gas price because they aren't filling up twice a week anymore. Their household transportation costs dropped by half before the spike ever hit. If emergency permitting has even a dozen major domestic energy projects breaking ground, the market prices in future supply relief even while current prices remain elevated, because forward curves respond to credible capacity additions. If grid scale storage and transmission projects are underway, utilities have a path to reduce natural gas dependency for electricity generation, which insulates household electric bills from the LNG disruption. The American consumer in that scenario is stressed but functional. They adjusted before the worst arrived. They have a remote job or a hybrid schedule that cuts their fuel exposure. Their electricity costs are partially buffered by domestic generation that doesn't route through a war zone. Their grocery costs still rise but less aggressively because the transportation input costs are partially offset by reduced fuel demand across the logistics chain. That's the difference between a recession the country recovers from in 18 months and a structural crisis that reshapes American life for a generation. The tools exist. The question is whether we use them before the arithmetic forces our hand.

Hates_commies

Their newest ships run on LNG. Not sure about the whole fleet. 

Haunting-Window-5125

10%? Oil has gone up like 50% in a month lmao. Also theres a lot more tha. That being effected, LNG, Aluminum, fertilizer, etc.

OrdinaryWeekly7468

Oil doesn't need to go to $150 for it to be a disaster. I don't know if it goes there. I doubt it gets to $200. But even oil at $100 to $120 for months on end itself is going to cause a global spiral, because it's not just oil that is the issue. It's fertilizer shortages, it's knock on effects from everything that uses oil (plastics, consumer goods, etc.) lol, that's what the issue is. Oil is a huge part of this, paired with gas prices that are definitely not going to be coming down anytime soon (especially with the summer premium imminent.) It's also all of the goods and ag products that come through that strait. Not to mention the LNG for other countries. Japan is facing an actual collapse of their energy grid because of this, because the vast majority of their LNG comes from the strait. this is not something that can be contained by a TACO and oil doesn't need to hit $150 for all of this to happen. Iran just needs to keep the strait closed and they laid out their conditions for reopening and stopping retaliation.

confused_teabagger

Weed or weed vape pens? Which uses propylene glycol for thick clouds, but propylene glycol is made from propylene oxide which is made from propylene which is made from steam-cracking propane which is a byproduct of LNG ... which means inflation for vape pens! Calls on LNG btw.

calm_discussion_3500

Yea I'm not saying there aren't shortages for a while in LNG or fertilizer. I just don't think it's going to cause some catastrophic crash. More importantly, Fed will see these price spikes as transitory and continue to print, perhaps even accelerate balance sheet expansion.

creemeeseason

Natural gas on its own is a bit different than LNG. We can pump tons of gas, but there is a limited amount of infrastructure to turn it into LNG and a limited amount of ships to transport it. A huge percentage of that infrastructure is in the Persian Gulf. Cheniere, a US company, is booked out for years and is trying to expand. Urea, the key ingredient for a lot of fertilizer is a byproduct of natural gas. Again, limited infrastructure is available to make it, it's coming into peak season, and huge chunks are in the Persian Gulf. Neither LNG or urea have stockpiles and so their shortages can't be combated. Oil gets the headlines (not wrongfully), but I'd argue that there are much more acute indicators of supply chin stress out there.

calm_discussion_3500

I think it's still the best measure. LNG shortages always get overblown and historically I always find they resolve way faster than people claim. Suddenly when there's huge massive money to made humans figure out a way to capitalize on it and new supply rapidly emerges that was said to not exist. If you look at nat gas although different, it's way down from november peaks.

creemeeseason

I don't think crude is the best indicator to watch, though it gets the biggest headlines. The crude market is being pressured through SPR releases and other means. Look at the names that get impacted quickly and have no marginal supply. CF is a great indicator and is up strongly today. Fertilizer is extremely tight, bordering on shortages. NTR and MOS also doing well. LYB makes chemicals, and they're looking at shortages. Also up. Cheniere energy (LNG) is another great bell weather of LNG availability, and that stock is still strong.

Chraunik

Actually that’s incorrect, 1/3d of the world’s aluminum, a quarter of its LNG, a lot of petroleum derived products such as fertilizer and plastic products. From a humanitarian standpoint I am very concerned about the fertilizer and the impact it may have in impoverished parts of Africa/Asia. Famines could get way worse.

2020isgreat

Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production has taken about a third of global helium production offline, affecting chipmakers who rely on helium for semiconductor manufacturing. gg

Austin_Destroyer

Nah. I'm an LNG and nuke boi

atticaf

LNG is a big problem for Europe any way you slice it. due to the issues with Russia. These things are commodities, price goes up for everyone when flow is restricted. I don’t really see how China ends up significantly worse off for this or Venezuela. They have done a good job of diversifying their inputs over the last 15 years, especially with renewables, which currently supply more than 50% of their power. They still need oil and gas but their output is not as Petro intensive as the US.

Tyras2000

14% from.Qatar 45% from USA 14% from Algeria ( LNG and pipeline gas) 

foulflaneur

Yeah, I feel like people are purposefully ignoring this fact. So many posts about how the west won't have access to LNG or oil and that Iran is "embargoing" the west. Fantasy land shit. The real loser will be China and it has been the target the entire time with current American foreign strategy. Venezuala just happened out of nowhere? Lol.

foulflaneur

Oil goes stratospheric and the US sells at bunch at that level. I mean. Makes sense. Why is everyone glossing over the amount of money being printed by US LNG right now?

Jdm783R29U3Cwp3d76R9

But we import a lot of LNG gas from Qatar...

torokunai

the tankers should just pick up the oil and LNG somewhere else.

UpstairsCheetah235

Europe as well. LNG is gonna be a problem. At least it’s spring. 

Whatever801

The US isn't the concern though. Oil is a global commodity. We are part of the IEA, so this is pumping oil into the global market along with other IEA countries. Another user pointed out that only 20m barrels passes through hormuz every day, which is fair. Issue is the pipelines can only handle like 2.5m barrels/day, so even if the oil is available it can't be moved to where it needs to be fast enough. There is also a supply crunch on LNG, for which there is not equivalent reserve.

strongscience62

LNG power plants are 65% efficient whereas car engines are 20% efficient. So electric cars fuel up 3x more efficiently.

Whatever801

That's fair. I also don't think they can actually distribute 20m barrels/day. The pipelines can only handle so much throughput. Bigger problem might be LNG. No strategic reserve for that.

Maverekt

We are nowhere close to producing real usable oil or LNG in Venezuela though, not enough to make up for 20% of the globe. And also they are still selling oil to China (and so is Iran) so the “benefit” of this war many “geopolitical experts” online are touting is also bullshit.

memeticengineering

Also, there's multiple raw and processed oil products, being a "net oil exporter" doesn't matter if most of what you're exporting is LNG and most of what you're importing is gasoline.

calm_discussion_3500

>Sources told Reuters last week that the force majeure notices sent ⁠to ​clients stated that LNG deliveries for March ​will not be affected, with the impact being felt as of April. Thought this was interesting.

pigeon_shit

LNG is ripping. Long $VG

Crazy_Donkies

MU staying green.  I'm thinking Korean LNG and oil concerns may be leading people to buy MU from Samsung/SK.

lexi_con

* Shell has long partnerships with QatarEnergy * Qatar halted production at 77 mtpa LNG facility LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Shell [(SHEL.L), opens new tab](https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/SHEL.L), the world's largest liquefied natural ‌gas trader, has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Qatar, the world's ​second-largest exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its ​77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared ⁠force majeure on LNG shipments. Shell declined to comment. Other Qatari LNG buyers, ​including TotalEnergies and some Asian companies, have received force majeure notices from ​Qatar and told customers they would not be selling them Qatari LNG as long as the facilities remain shut, two other sources said. A source close to TotalEnergies [(TTEF.PA), opens new tab](https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/TTEF.PA) said ​the French oil and gas major has not declared force majeure, ​a notice used to describe events outside a company's control, such as a natural ‌disaster, ⁠which usually releases it from contractual obligation without penalty. Both Shell and TotalEnergies have long-term partnerships with QatarEnergy and are partners in the company's massive North Field expansion project which aims to boost capacity by 2027. Analysts ​estimate Shell takes ​6.8 mtpa of ⁠Qatari LNG, while TotalEnergies takes 5.2 mtpa. Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times last week that ​it would take "weeks to months" to return to ​normal deliveries, ⁠even if the war ended today. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG shipments on Wednesday. Sources told Reuters last week that the force majeure notices ⁠sent to ​clients stated that LNG deliveries for March ​will not be affected, with the impact being felt as of April.

George__Roid

There are a good amount of stockpiles for oil but almost none for natural gas LNG and a lot of LNG goes through the strait

Crazy_Donkies

Same people loaded up on TP. Idiots. America gets 7% of their oil and zero LNG from Iran.

pigeon_shit

LNG gonna moon

quick20minadventure

LNG issue has shut down restaurants in Mumbai. It's a problem...

Few-Masterpiece3910

but 90 days of supply ignores the supply thats still incoming from other sources and the potential production increase at those. Together with reduced demand (because of high price and substitution) there is a limit on how high it realistic can rise. (I'm not saying it'll get cheaper) LNG is more restricted.

tinydisaster

What we are doing can have an effect on the value of the dollar, like when we invaded Iraq in 2003. There are a lot more variables than just who has oil and is able to pump. This shock is on par with the shock of the 1970s as a volume of oil going offline. That wasn’t a great growth period imho. Also speciality gases critical for AI chip development go through that straight, as well as LNG. The storage is much higher but having the grids fail in east Asia isn’t bullish for anyone.

jonneh

> **Bloomberg** > The world’s biggest liquefied natural gas export plant in Qatar hasn’t exported a shipment for five days — the longest streak in data going back to 2008 — threatening to further boost prices for the fuel. > > A loaded tanker hasn’t left the Ras Laffan facility in five days, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Kpler ship-tracking data. The liquefaction plant supplies nearly 20% of the world’s LNG.

tinydisaster

35 million barrels since January. In contrast 20 million barrels move per day through the strait. This is to say nothing about LNG, where as I recall 60 percent of proven reserves are inside the Persian Gulf.

OtherwiseVersion2316

They are going to have a pure oil play and a pure LNG play. It's also a way for the CEO to earn a commission check for selling a tanker to the spinoff. When RBNE spun off from TORO, it looks like it worked out pretty well for holders.

polB4

ATT buys its gas primarily from Orlen which in turn buys its through LNG port and German pipeline

InfoLib_

Skąd ATT dostaje LNG?