LNG

tachyonvelocity

Cheniere was the leader at the right time, extreme spike in natural gas and LNG prices after a supply shock from Ukraine War. EU LNG prices (TTF) have crashed as EU invested away from natural gas. LNG companies like Cheniere, benefit from the SPREAD between US Henry Hub and global natural gas prices.

Mossad_psyop

I was more referring to the ticker LNG, being Cheniere Energy, but that was a very interesting write up! Relevant to Cheniere regardless as they are a major LNG exporter.

tachyonvelocity

Yes what do you want to know? LNG isn't going away but way way overhyped. Let's ask, what is LNG for? power, chemicals, and heating. The problem is: 1) Cost of non-fossil fuel power gen has crashed, enabled by Chinese economies of scale and innovation. Outside the US, there is no delusional regulatory capture by fossil fuels that prevent renewables buildout, so the economics of power gen matters. The economics is that renewables are extremely competitive. 2) Even in US, US new power capacity is not even building out natural gas power plants much, and solar leads, so even at the ultra cheap US gas, power gen is not competitive. What do you think for an emerging market, will they pay a higher premium US LNG instead of just building renewables? 3) US LNG requires global LNG prices to be higher than domestic gas, at least \~$1.5 per mmbtu higher than Henry Hub. This spread WAS very high, so LNG producers were making tons of money. This spread is getting narrower, so LNG margins have peaked. 4) Geopolitics like China tariffs don't help. China was buying a lot of US LNG. Now that market is basically dead and not growing. This is because geopolitical stress reduce desire for US LNG. So China is now developing local natural gas production. Others like Japan are opening back up nuclear. Europe energy demand isn't increasing. Russian LNG has not left the market, only switched to China and India. 5) US LNG is not the only source of LNG, although it is a cheap source. Qatar LNG, Canada LNG, Aus LNG, are all increasing supply. This reduces US LNG margins and overall margins for the entire sector. Qatar, Can, have not finished building out LNG yet, so more supply coming.

Mossad_psyop

Anyone have thoughts on LNG?

Mossad_psyop

Any thoughts on LNG on this dip?

fledgling66

You have to buy cyclical stocks when they are counter-cyclical. I’m doubling my position in $LNG if it goes below $200.

The-Rock-Report

**$ABXXF is the most asymmetric infrastructure play in the market today. Period.** While everyone chases overvalued AI software, Abaxx has quietly built the **CME for the Energy Transition** in Singapore. Here is the thesis they don't want you to know yet: 1. **The "Holy Grail" of Energy:** They just solved the global gas problem. Their physically-deliverable LNG futures are doing what Henry Hub can't—pricing the Asian market. Volumes are up **83% MoM**. The "Brent of LNG" is here. 2. **The "Nickel Squeeze" Killer:** While the LME failed, Abaxx launched the world's first battery-grade Nickel & Lithium futures that OEMs actually trust. They are becoming the standard for the EV supply chain. 3. **Hidden Tech Monopoly:** They aren't just an exchange; they are a **FinTech Trojan Horse**. Their "Smart Contract" technology (ID++) is turning physical commodities (Gold, Copper) into instant, liquid collateral with global partners like MineHub. This is a multi-trillion dollar unlock of dead capital. 4. **The Team:** Built by the exact same heavyweights who built NYMEX ClearPort (Joe Raia) and Goldmoney (Josh Crumb). They have done this before. 5. **The Gap:** CME Group = $70B. Abaxx = \~$300M. They possess the **same** regulatory licenses (ACH/RMO) and are capturing the markets CME ignored. Institutional money (BlackRock, Wellington) is already loaded. The platform is live. The volumes are vertical. Don't wait for the CNBC headline. Read the filings. Study the moat. **Abaxx is becoming a major part of the plumbing of the global economy.**

Health_Code_T

Allow me to suggest oil and LNG. And solar

ShemusColeman

Revisiting this 4 years later. Any fresh thoughts? What's your outlook now? Charter rates are beginning to spike and US export capacity continues to ramp up and will double by 2029. Seems like the industry consensus is that the global LNG fleet is set to grow most in 2026 and 2027. I just started looking at a few of the names. Golar seems to have pivoted strictly to FLNG. Flex looks like it's cleaning up its balance sheet and is building a robust cash position, and most of their fleet is tied up under firm/fixed hire. I haven't looked at Dynagas or Gaslog as yet.

Health_Code_T

> LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A potent mix of American ingenuity and full-throated political backing has propelled the U.S. to the top of global LNG exporter rankings, and promoted a narrative that shipments of "freedom gas" will continue climbing to all markets for years to come. FREEDOM GAS 💨

No_Aerie_2717

Venture Global 👌 US LNG

Tufannnn

My view on your points 1) They managed to succesfully negociated some financials - not sure how or with what, but they gained some type of trust from the bondholders and debtcollectors. 2) The 15 year deal is sized down to 7 years - which is likely to be approved as they keep extending the LNG contract through it’s subsidiary. 3) New plant, emerging market, not much known about est. revenue from there so we don’t know much other than it’s operational.

TherealCarbunc

The U.S. government did not directly claim New Fortress Energy's (NFE) vessels were unsafe. Instead, **a lawsuit was filed by a group of San Juan Bay marine pilots who alleged that NFE was demanding the use of "lesser capacity" and unsafe tugboats** to cut costs, which created an "imminent risk" in San Juan Harbor.  The key issues raised in the pilots' lawsuit (filed in August 2025) were: * **Tugboat Capacity:** NFE began using much larger LNG vessels (five times the previous size) but allegedly sought to use tugboats with insufficient capacity to safely maneuver them in the confined waters of the San Juan Bay. * **Deviation from Standards:** The pilots claimed NFE's unilateral actions discarded previously agreed-upon safety standards, which had been established after nearly two years of detailed simulations and technical analyses involving the use of larger tugboats. * **Safety Risk:** The pilots argued that performing maneuvers with the smaller tugboats presented a significant risk to life, property, and navigation within the harbor. * **Suppression of Concerns:** The pilots also alleged that the Pilotage Commission of Puerto Rico, the body meant to ensure safety standards, tried to silence them when they attempted to raise the alarm about the unsafe changes.  This dispute led to a U.S. District Judge issuing a temporary order blocking NFE from using the tugboats in question, causing disruptions to the island's energy supply and forcing some power plants to switch to diesel fuel. NFE, for its part, maintained that its vessels and operations were safe and that the order could have "catastrophic consequences" for Puerto Rico's power grid. A temporary agreement was later reached to resolve the immediate issue.

TherealCarbunc

From what I read this is the agreement they came up with after denying the initial. There were still some facts Puerto Rico needed to check. such as the confirming the rate of production what NFE was reporting they could produce. Then this: Current challenges * **Legal challenge:** A US district judge blocked NFE's LNG deliveries after a lawsuit from marine pilots who alleged the company's vessels were unsafe. NFE is appealing this ruling. * **Financial oversight:** The agreement still requires approval from the Financial Oversight and Management Board of Puerto Rico, which previously rejected a larger, 15-year contract proposal. 

ElmoLovesGrover

Agree, would be win for Puerto Rico if can agree to some kind of terms with NFE. There is reason this stock spent most of its existence at from maybe $25 to $50. I didn't start tanking until early august 2024. For like 3 or 4 before that it performed on par with any other oil and gas concern. NFE is the only vertically integrated LNG firm in the world. The NFE CEO correctly predicted the future need for LNG 4-5 years ago when he used a few hundred million of his own money to start the company. Well, lots of people correctly predicted how important LNG would become. Its more that the NFE CEO had enough money and Wall Street connections that he could found a company to capitalize on that need.

ElmoLovesGrover

I posted a long DD in the lounge about NFE yesterday morning. First -NFE Thursday and Friday was not a dump and pump. NFEs rise Thursday was not the "pump" part of pump and dump. NFE rose Thursday because people were placing bets on the earning/update that some expected to be released after close. I posted in the lounge multiple times on Thursday explaining this. Then during after hours between 4 and 5 I posted 3 times that if the expected information (about UK debt restructuring) was included in the update then the stock would likely return gains on Friday. That is exactly what happened. The reason I was able to predict what would happen Thursday and Friday with NFE share price was not because it was a pump and dump, but because there were logical reasons for the price action (see above). I've posted in the lounge many times in the past month about NFE. In more half of these posts I have pointed out the speculative, high risk, high reward nature of the stock. Many time I have stated not to invest any more than you are willing to lose, because regardless of the potential return, you are much more likely to lose all or most of your money, than to make any gain at all. With NFE DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE! While the short data shows that NFE is clearly a squeeze candidate, I agree with Fun Return that its unlikely to reach the volume needed to squeeze. I do add the caveat though: "without a news catalyst, NFE is unlikely to reach the volume needed to squeeze. SGBX had a supposedly "perfect squeeze set-up, so it was able to squeeze on retail hype alone. NFE's set-up is not as good and its financials are so horrible that it will not squeeze on hype alone. It needs a news catalyst. So what are the potential catalysts? Here they are, baby: 1. Up to $659 million FEMA payment from a reparations claim from the 2017 hurricane that hit Puerto Rico. 2. Approval of a contract to supply LNG to Puerto Rico at $440 million/year for 15 years. 3. Brazil starts up a 624 MW gas-fired power plant and begins per contractual obligation buying LNG from NFE. 4. Fed. Gov. investment similar to recent rare earth, chip, and steel deals. This one is more of a crapshoot, btu it is true that LNG has become of strategic geopolitical significance since Russia invaded Ukraine and Trump and NFEs' CEO Wes Edens are friends. In fact, during Trumps NYC real estate days Edens forgave $100 million in debt Trump owed an Eden firm to get trump put of tight predicament. 5. Speaking of Eden and him forgiving a friends/fellow investors debt... it is difficult to overstate just how well-respsected and well established Edens is within the Wall Street and Bond Jockey community. Edens has been around since the 80's, was a Blackrock Founder, has started a few dozen or so hedge funds and equty funds, and has mentored countless people who now run their own funds or are otherwise big shot on Wall Street. Eden has plenty of Wall Street favors he could call in if we wants to, and it is likely Wall Street will honor his requests. 6. There is evidence that Wall Street is already paying back to him Edens decades of karma. Two weeks ago a lender gave a one month forbearance for an interest payment on NFE debt that NFE would not have been able to meet. Even before that some lenders have been coming to arrangements with NFE where NFE is purchasing back NFE debt at 50 or less par value. Then yesterday it was announced that more lenders were delaying interest payments due this calendar year (which NFE would not have been able to meet) until mid-March. 7. The most important potential catalyst - the UK debt restructuring. As an alternative to a US Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, NFE is seeking to restructure their debt through a UK "Scheme of Arrangement". Whereas a Chapter 11 bankruptcy would with 99.9% certainity would 100% wipe out equity, in a Scheme of Arrangement at least some equity would probably be spared. Maybe most equity, maybe less equity... no way to know to what extent equity would be spared. This is huge. As NFE pointed out (again) in yesterdays 10Q, if the UK debt restructuring does not go through then they will very likely have to go through Chapter 11 and equity can be expected to lose essentially everything. There it is. Invest at own risk. NFE is high risk, high reward. Its so high risk it is flat out speculation. The reward could be huge, but you are much more likely to lose most or all rather than profit a single penny. DO NOT PUT IN MORE THAN YOU WANT TO LOSE, BECAUSE YOU MOST LIKELY WILL LOSE IT ALL!!!

TherealCarbunc

this has potential to squeeze imo, but I'm done promoting squeeze plays too many people just take advantage of an initial pump and dip. https://preview.redd.it/g1zihn8dkt2g1.png?width=1165&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef467454985bd3cb25d6de2cc25d2786529cb41 Data shows they're still digging themselves deeper and from what i've seen and what i know of the debt summarized by gemini AI cause im too lazy to type it out: * **Credit Agreement Extension:** On November 14, 2025, NFE secured an amendment with lenders to extend the maturity date of a credit agreement to March 31, 2026. This agreement also removed a minimum liquidity requirement. * **Missed Interest Payment:** The company missed an interest payment due on November 17, 2025, for its $2.7 billion senior secured notes due in 2029. * **Forbearance Agreement:** NFE entered into a forbearance agreement with holders of these 2029 notes, which effectively extended the due date for the missed interest payment to December 15, 2025. * **Restructuring Efforts:** The company is currently in financial distress and exploring options for a broader debt restructuring, potentially through a U.K. court process, to manage its significant debt burden and avoid potential bankruptcy.  More recently, New Fortress Energy has been active in other significant agreements and has faced financial challenges in late 2025:  * **Puerto Rico LNG Supply Deal:** In September 2025, NFE reached an agreement for a seven-year, $4 billion deal to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Puerto Rico, which is expected to provide a stable revenue stream, though it still requires final regulatory approval. There is **no specific date publicly announced** for the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (FOMB) to approve the New Fortress Energy (NFE) long-term LNG supply contract. The contract is currently under review by the FOMB.  The government of Puerto Rico submitted the renegotiated, scaled-down deal (a seven-year, $4 billion contract) to the FOMB for approval in mid-September 2025. The FOMB had previously rejected an initial, larger proposal in July 2025.  The FOMB requires government entities to validate the contract terms, including the projected LNG consumption volumes, before it can make a final decision. In the meantime, the FOMB has approved short-term contract extensions to ensure continuity of LNG supply to existing power plants.  You can monitor FOMB news and meeting announcements on the [FOMB website](https://oversightboard.pr.gov/) for updates on the approval timeline. The extension to March 2026 applies to a specific credit facility, but NFE is still navigating a complex and difficult financial situation involving other debt obligations and has been downgraded to "selective default" by S&P Global Ratings

Natural_West7949

Cheniere Energy( LNG)

Solonas

They do have a lot of debt, but it is backed by tangible assets (ships, LNG hubs, a power plant, etc). There are some hurdles, but if they can execute and postpone debt until the plant in Brazil is online they are going to be in a much stronger position. I would think creditors are more willing to let them get going as once the cash starts flowing it will sustain the whole business and cash flows will service the debt.

PritchettsClosets

2B revenue, 400M market cap, with quite a few upcoming catalysts and real projects/revenues (PR LNG contract, PR Electric Power contract, Energiza 20 year supply deal, Mexico facilities seem to be positive, selling Jamaican assets for $1B+, Brazil plant coming onboard) Real company. Real debt/issues, hence the price But it's a great risk/reward at this level.

No_Aerie_2717

Yes. US LNG 😉

gamjatang111

so are LNG though. Look at $CAT earnings they are selling many LNG turbines for data centers. Ya Solar stocks are making a comeback due to the energy storage aspect of it.

Whoopziedaisy

I’m literally asking you out of curiosity because I want to learn more. Apparently LNG investors aren’t excited about what they have cooking and are little snowflakes lmao

Intrepid-Distance-54

Been long holding NFE, VG, NEXT and LNG

Affectionate-Idea690

# Trump: US, Saudi Arabia joining LNG infrastructure

fledgling66

Seems like a buying opportunity to pick up Visa at $320 in a bull market. Aside from that, I’m adding to my $LNG at current levels, and always buying $BRK.B

No_Aerie_2717

I strongly believe that this will be multibagger in future. EU banned LNG imports from Russia. [https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/10/20/council-agrees-its-position-on-rules-to-phase-out-russian-gas-imports-under-repowereu/](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/10/20/council-agrees-its-position-on-rules-to-phase-out-russian-gas-imports-under-repowereu/) REPowerEU is increasing LNG terminals and gas network. [https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu\_en](https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en) VG is making deals (long contracts)with EU countries every week/month. Ukraine buy more US LNG through Greece (VG is the supplier). New Japan contract was announced this week. Trump is trying to push LNG exports higher. Trump has praised CEO and Venture Global in live feed. DOE allows expansions. BP loss is just temporary. Business continues. Analysts are still trying to pump the stock over 11-15 USD range knowing BP case.

AardvarkAmortization

Ever seen an oil refinery burn? How about an LNG terminal or ship? Two towns in Romania are evacuated today because an LNG ship was hit by russian missiles. No what happens when you hit a solar field with a missile? Nothing lol.

PalpitationSmooth992

only way to play AI now is to long LNG stocks since energy is the bottleneck and nuclear is years out NEXT VG KMI EQT OKE

Bigcheese665

While they have stumbled recently, they are one of the three largest export of Liquified natural gas, and the current administration is very fossil fuel friendly. In addition to Europe greatly increasing its LNG consumption, AI sucking up massive amounts of energy, the onset of winter, and a few contracts it has lined up. The stock has some major support that could see it rise over the next few years. That being said, this is a long-term multi-year position.

Original-Lawfulness6

Agreed… unless they are delaying because of positive negotiations for debt restructuring and LNG deals. All I can do is hope.

Puzzleheaded-One-607

They’re the largest LNG exporter in the country and I think one of the biggest producers as well. They have 2 massive liquification/export facilities in the South. Take a look. Interesting play and one of my bigger holdings. Was hard for me to find a better pure play on LNG in specific. However, they are tied to the price of gas more than a midstream play like Antero, EPD, etc

Puzzleheaded-One-607

LNG (Cheniere Energy) is a great play as well 

dansdansy

So LNG seems like it could benefit from this demand short term. Nuclear will take a long time to ramp up.

pandershrek

LNG will only come down in value as more municipalities ban it, we improve efficiency of both extraction and refinement. You'll just keep increasing supply while reducing demand, a death knell.

DisastrousPlantain51

Is this tellurian all over again. LNG company merger gets FID.. heard this one before 😬

Intelligent_Onion832

I’m bullish on LNG. The company is vertically integrated in both directions. The companies market cap is less than its cash position. History of billions in annual revenue, opening new plants. Hired a financial advisor to help address debt crises. I think most of the potential bad news is baked in and see 5-10x upside potential. Analysts see significant upside potential as well.

LGDARYInvst

Yes it does, as explained above he fired the puerto rico board and Trump is very bullish on LNG supporting more sales and projects which is good for NFE. Biden was restricting LNG exports and has been a major reason why the company took so much debt and could not grow its EBITDA as fast. Still I see their situation not too bad, the risk/reward ratio is far lower than 1 making it a good turnaround candidate.

Intelligent_Onion832

NFE is my current play. High risk high reward. LNG company. Billions in assets, billions in debt, billions in annual revenue. Trades at market cap less than current cash position. Not finacial advice. Lol

LasyKuuga

Anyone here follow commdities? Tf happened to LNG?

Ameht170

NFE's problems are its own and are so severe that they have completely disconnected its stock from the positive trends in the industry. * **Crushing Debt & Financial Distress:** The company is weighed down by a massive debt burden (exceeding $9 billion). In 2024 and 2025, NFE issued "going concern" warnings, a formal declaration that the company has "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue operating for the next year. * **Exploring Bankruptcy Alternatives:** NFE has been actively exploring complex debt restructuring plans, including a UK-based scheme, as an alternative to a full Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. * **Massive Project Failures:** The company's financial crisis was accelerated by major operational failures. Most notably, a **$20 billion, 15-year contract** to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Puerto Rico—a cornerstone of its future plans—was **rejected by the island's finance regulator** in 2025. * **Operational & Legal Troubles:** On top of the rejected contract, NFE has faced legal and regulatory battles, including a US judge temporarily blocking its shipments to Puerto Rico over safety concerns and disputes over payments. * **"Distress" Sale of Assets:** To raise cash and service its debt, NFE was forced to conduct a "distress sale" of its Jamaican business, a move that signaled deep financial trouble to investors. * **Regulatory Red Flags:** The company also received a delisting warning from Nasdaq for failing to file its required SEC financial reports on time. #

Mad_Mardigan808

The company sells LNG and crude oil. Crude has averaged $65-$66 a barrel over the last quarter which is $5.5 +\- profit from revenue and the natural gas prices are about $.48MMBtu above margin for the last quarter. Furthermore, they recently hired more order analysts and managers while also replacing the CFO. This implies they slimmed their C suite while also brought in more people to deal with increased orders. Lastly, they’ve added 11 new wells which exceeded output expectations.

theSherlockView

its forward looking. Spacex had zero revenue until they could accept payloads for customers or sell internet to customers. Once that switch turned on they were making hundreds of millions. Proof I laid out in my DD. They have the only physically delivered LNG contract for example and volume continues to grow.

theSherlockView

regulated clearinghouse and exchange thats gonna dominate the LNG/Gold/Silver markets and use their new tech for t+0 and finally let commodity producers collateralize their commodities

Fluffy_Apple_6637

vestments in building new LNG infestructure -> nearly complete -> revenue machine Bonus: trump administration • ⁠temporary agreement with PR valued at 1 billion, with an eventual full agreement expected • ⁠institutions keep buying (black rock) • ⁠Wesley Edens knows debt, he will not let go of this after the whole journey he has been through …. These are the first things that come to mind, but there are still pending catalyst. High risk high reward. Squeeze possibility is a bonus, but “the pump and dump” has fundamentals of its own

VanilaaGorila

Correction BRK is ~18-19% oil and LNG. ~10% CVX and ~ 8% OXY. Now I ask you because I think you’re all full of shit. Where are you getting your option from? Reddit? 

TurnoverTechnical539

yeah, the debt is high (~$9 B), but that’s by design. NFE builds capital-intensive LNG infrastructure, which naturally requires leverage. The key is that most of this debt is project-backed and cash-flow generating, not just corporate burn. If their new terminals ramp up as planned, that leverage can actually amplify returns rather than kill them.

the_number02

I have been on the HON Capital side for close to 13 years. AM (Solstice) has been the cash cow for HON for the last almost 2 decades. Now we'll be able to focus Capital on our existing assets, with good sales volumes and expand our capacities for sold out units and start looking at major expansions in other lines that have have been on the up and up but restricted. Then when we've settled we can start to look at M&As and other opportunities. Morale is super high across the board, we were one of the last conglomerates and overdue for a change. Darius's and now Vimal's focus on making HON a Software company was really hampering AM. The Solstice AM split and upcoming AERO split is a win, win, win for all 3 companies. HON just acquired LNG, Sundyne, and Johnson Matthey to increase its Process Technology portfolio with full spectrum support in upstream, process, and high value catalysts. Aero is Aero and they have over 100 years of reputable industry experience and one of the largest market shares in that space. All 3 companies are going to be set up to succeed. I'll be making the move to Solstice and putting whatever I can in that stock but still keeping my HON portfolio.

Fluffy_Apple_6637

• ⁠NFE large debt mainly is from extensivr investments in building new LNG infestructure -> nearly complete -> revenue machine Bonus: trump administration • ⁠temporary agreement with PR valued at 1 billion, with an eventual full agreement expected • ⁠institutions keep buying (black rock) • ⁠Wesley Edens knows debt, he will not let go of this after the whole journey he has been through …. These are the first things that come to mind, but there are still pending catalyst. High risk high reward. Squeeze possibility is a bonus, but “the garbage” has fundamentals of its own

Fluffy_Apple_6637

• ⁠NFE large debt mainly is from extensivr investments in building new LNG infestructure -> nearly complete -> revenue machine Bonus: trump administration • ⁠temporary agreement with PR valued at 1 billion, with an eventual full agreement expected • ⁠institutions keep buying (black rock) • ⁠Wesley Edens knows debt, he will not let go of this after the whole journey he has been through …. These are the first things that come to mind, but there are still pending catalyst. High risk high reward. Squeeze possibility is a bonus, but “the garbage” has fundamentals of its own

SosowacGuy

ER won't be positive. The news this is pumping off was the contract they have penciled worth with Puerto Rico (old news) and an attempt to restructure their $9billion in debt. This isn't the next GME squeeze.. it's a LNG company that no one knows about trying to survive.

Vm939r5cMLKG857m

You also have to consider that in the past LNG was more or less a byproduct of oil production. In the future, its increasingly looking like LNG is the main product (or at the very least a product of equal economic importance). This shift in the market is going to make physical LNG markets more important (and valuable) over the coming decade. It will come at the expense of oil markets.

theSherlockView

That is true that getting customers is difficult and they will have teething issues (which has caused delays in getting tradingview access to their futures contract for example which finished last week). But they are working through those and continue to make progress hence the uptick in volumes as customers get more used to it. I believe this month they are doing the delivery process for the first time on Gold and LNG. To counter point you, they have a lot of benefits compared to legacy exchanges that incentivize customer growth. But once they get those customers with their improved tech, it will be hard for legacy exchanges to convince them to come back after having neglected them for so long. Also as it relates to LNG for example, customers may not have a choice but to use Abaxx. As Abaxx LNG volume grows as the only physically delivered contract, customers will be forced to hedge their risk using Abaxx as that is the only real physical contracts. Banks will also start requiring loans for LNG for example to use Abaxx contract as their pricing. As this grows it creates a snowball effect forcing customers to onboard out of necessity but also for the unique benefits such as using LNG shipments as collateral which they cannot easily do now. Once those customers grow, it creates a network effect of connectivity. Who is gonna trade a financially settled futures contract when the physical exists? especially if you are naturally short the physical? When the physical players are only trading on abaxx, what exactly are the traders on the financially settled markets trading if its not the price of LNG? you start to see how its inevitable they move over as well and abaxx corners the LNG market. From their connectivity gains there and from gold, they can start to tackle other markets as well.

DaddyFund

I bought in this morning after doing a little DD myself to confirm what bro said, the main selling point for me is their likely cornering of the LNG futures market due to the unique physically settled nature of the ABAXX contracts. This does indeed appear to be a major shortcoming of the existing Platts JKM benchmark. The stock is a buy at this price even if you assume that all they'll be able to do is capture this one market. The other plays are just lagniappe, as they say in my part of the world. That skews the risk/reward profile heavily in your favor IMO. Still highly risky, though, and I'm only putting a single digit percent of my port in it.

PackHot4617

JKM is based only in Asia, Abaxx has 3 LNG contracts (GOM, NPA, NWE) and is intending to be the global benchmark for all physical LNG trade in a winner-take-most market. In 2024 there was 411 million tons (MT) of LNG traded globally. Based on abaxx contract structure this equates to roughly 6,450 LNG cargos at 350 contract lots per cargo. If we use a conservative churn ratio of 10x for a mature and robust LNG market we get 6,450 x 350 x 10 = 22.575 million contracts traded per annum. Abaxx currently charges $10 in fees per contract ($5 per side) which would generate $226M in revenue. Now slap your 40x P/E and you get a a $9B valuation. Now I don’t think they will capture 100% of the market any probably would use a more conservative P/E but I think $4-5B is very realistic JUST for LNG…and demand is only growing for LNG.

theSherlockView

My understanding is that revenues are much much higher than that for JKM. But also as vast amount of the LNG market use brent crude percentages for their pricing so they trade LNG as 10-16% of the value of brent crude. Traders also trade Platts as well which is pipeline gas in europe as no physically delivered LNG contract existed until Abaxx. Having a liquid physically delivered contract is superior for risk management and would vacuum up the JKM liquidity but also the liquidity from platts and brent crude. Remember utilities companies relying on LNG are effectively short the LNG market. Trading a financially settled contract is unacceptable for this or even some ratio of crude oil. They need LNG, not oil. Which is why Abaxx has already 2 prs which chinese local governments to work together on making Abaxx LNG contracts benchmark. But remember JKM is only Asia, Abaxx also as Gulf of Mexico supply contract offering more capabilities for traders to buy Gulf LNG and sell into Asia or europe. Abaxx has 3 LNG contracts, JKM is just one. At the same time they are working with Minehub to support having those LNG shipments which take a month or more to be used as collateral on their exchange significantly improving clearing efficiencies and lowering cost. LNG is becoming one of the most import energy contracts and soon on pair with brent. Abaxx will have 3.

DaddyFund

How are you coming up with this: "I suspect Abaxx will overtake JKM in 2026 and make it essentially worthless. Abaxx's LNG contracts alone will likely be worth 5-10 billion USD creating a pretty good safety buffer at a 5x from here." I'm napkin mathing that if they take every bit of the existing JKM market, it would only net something in the $15M yearly revenue range. Maybe $50M if they increase the financialization ratio by 4x. If you assume even a large P/E like 40x you're still only at $2B market cap increase.

theSherlockView

CFTC takes longer than expected to grant approval giving more time for competitors to enter the market. But I can't imagine it takes more than a couple more months and competitors would need years to catch up. I suppose the other risk is that the tech doesn't meet others expectations but thats why the exchange is still a nice safety buffer. I think LNG benchmark with gold is a given which provides a 5-10x from here. Another concern is buyout. They have a big vision to change the financial sector, but someone with big money bags could just buy them out. Although I think they would need to offer significant premium. At the stage they are at, i'm more worried about it not going high enough for the risk I took way earlier in the company (was down 50% at one point) than I am that it goes down again.

deadrobertspirate

There’s an oil glut , but there’s increased demand for LNG , if Transocean shifted more towards field development rather than deep water exploration then they would be a buy

jd192739

Thoughts? From ChatGPT: Here are the big issues in that post: 1. Misstated facts: It pins the 2022 nickel trade cancellations on LBMA; that was the LME. 2. Apples-to-oranges volume math: Compares Abaxx physically delivered LNG lots in one month to cash-settled JKM in a different month, then extrapolates market share. 3. Premature U.S. access claims: Treats CFTC FBOT approval as imminent/assumed rather than uncertain. 4. Heroic valuation comps: Benchmarks a pre-scale venue against CME/ICE/LSEG without adjusting for revenue, profitability, network effects, or moat. 5. Outcome-driven targets: “10x in 1–2 yrs, 50x in 5” with no operating model (ADV, fee rate, take rate, margin income, costs) to back it. 6. JKM displacement thesis unproven: Ignores liquidity inertia, bilateral habits, and incumbents’ ability to respond. 7. Gold “liquidity black hole” claim: No hard data on ADV, depth, spreads, deliveries, or vault participation to justify it. 8. Tech/regulatory leapfrogging: “Digital cheques / T+0 / tokenized stocks” glosses over legal opinions, counterparty adoption, and regulator comfort. 9. Collateral-on-water pilot: No evidence it’s in production (haircuts, margining, member usage); presented as a done deal. 10. TAM sleight of hand: “$42T MMF at 5 bps” assumes sweeping adoption and economics Abaxx may not win (custody, distribution, compliance). 11. Selective sources & bias: Heavy reliance on promotional videos/X threads; thin independent validation. 12. Missing risk plumbing: Little on default waterfall size, IM model, backstop capital, dilution risk, or operating burn/runway.

teru91

It’s all lining up..now. The LNG is approved on condition The electrical grid work is nearing approval They finalized a deal for datacenter Debt will be structured and I have a feeling Orange man will step up.

ElmoLovesGrover

NFE debt burden is out of this world. But that is to be expected; LNG is a hugely capital intensive business. Any other company with their financials I'd say they'd have to declare bankruptcy within a year. NFE though... I don't the federal gov. will let them go out of business. There are too few vertically integrated LNG businesses out there and LNG has geopolitical relevance right now. NFE is high risk for sure. If the gov. does step in with a stake or funding they will have to dilute heavily. The payoff could be up to 10x from currently ultra-depressed levels if The Orange Man lends a hand.

theSherlockView

I was buying 4 years ago, so I feel your pain there. It is finally starting to take off with their LNG and gold contracts growing in volume quick. Definitely give it a look again

Aggravating_Lychee99

Good catch, I think this one is for the LNG ports, the deal we want PR's FOMB to approve is for their electric grid.

No_Aerie_2717

Venture Global * LNG imports from Russia to the EU will soon come to a complete stop. Large amounts of LNG have been coming from Russia to Europe. * Possible EU–US "tariff/energy deal" * Ukraine is requesting additional LNG supplies from Venture Global. * The CEO is one of Trump’s “business associates.” * LNG orders from the EU are already increasing. * China "promised" to buy more LNG from this company. * The company is rapidly expanding its LNG production capacity. * Analysts are still trying to push the stock price above USD 15 (currently around USD 8.6). * There have been some issues with fulfilling orders for larger energy companies, which has caused the share price to drop recently (a temporary issue due to limited production capacity). Arbitrage cases few.

ElmoLovesGrover

NFE is a possibility for one of those Trump investments with fed gov. money. Gotta lend gov. support to the LNG industry, baby.

teru91

I am thinking NFE🫠 looks interesting A company on the verge of bankruptcy And LNG gas line docs.oversightboard.pr.gov/n/i... Key points simplified:The Oversight Board conditionally approves the contract, requiring the government to develop a plan ensuring open and reliable access to ports like San Juan Bay to promote competition in fuel and energy supply. The government must update the Board by March 2026.The contract allows Genera to buy fuel from alternative sources up to 25% if they find a lower price or in emergencies.Fuel price per barrel is based on market price plus a fixed surcharge ("adder"), varying by payment terms from $3.60 to $4.75 per barrel; an alternate higher surcharge schedule also exists.The contract has a maximum value of $1 billion and a one-year term, with possible extensions.The contract originated from a competitive bidding process with 25 interested vendors, but only four proposals, one winner.The winner's advantage was owning a private port facility, avoiding logistical issues at San Juan docks, despite higher price bids.The Board expresses concern over limited dock access reducing competition and urges better coordination to improve market conditions.Genera has certified that this contract’s cost is covered by available, unrestricted funds with no budgetary impact.Summary: The Board approves the fuel supply contract with conditions emphasizing port access reforms to boost competition while ensuring fuel supply security for Puerto Rico's power plants. Genera must report progress and maintain transparent future procurement processes to protect consumers And this.. Short squeeze Monday will take it to the roof🤔

Kind-Week6443

Thank you( by the way the value in this company is like a gold covered in dogshit now that trumps back….) LNG VERTICAL, Wes Eden’s and his golf buddies from blackrock are orchestrating another marvelous play

Kind-Week6443

I’m down big my self but next thing to do is share this and read for 30 senocds pleae I believe that there’s no way that he can fail. I do know that black rock has always used news and media to their advantage, manipulating what the public perceives as a failing company. This guy put so much infrastructure in place and has the projection by 2027 to be pumping out 10,000,000 tonsof LNG a year worth over $5 billion not to mention the guy build plants and I’m sure gets paid for running the plants and I wouldn’t be surprised if he really step it up as Trumps in office, my thesis about why short squeezing NFE is a good idea for retailers is because the value here is not like a meme stock squeeze like shitty companies like beyond or GameStop. This company is growing and once it seats it downhill run with all that momentum…. The value to look at is not in what the earnings have been nor what his debt is, but what is important is who owes him favors (Donald 100 million) and what infrastructure he’s already put in place i’d like to sharewhat tipped my meter, the couple telltales that gave it away to me…. Lead me down the real rabbit holes, this idea that Puerto Rico is not happening… the gave away too much info by saying the shipment for a working plant is late, it’s late because of a hurricane is news? The news is that a plant needs fuel to run and a loaded lng carrier with that much dangerous cargo has a destination and need to debunker all that somewhere, even deeper after i started digging and found that a contract in Pennsylvania is back up and running… tell me, if a company we’re on the verge of bankruptcy. I believe that salvaging the news of one failed contract would be something all over Bloomberg, great value to reassure your investors, on the other hand, what did drop on the same day a few hours later was all this noise about possible bankruptcy and the only thing bankruptcy talk does is it deters investors from wanting to continue their investment and it deters new investors, the truth is this guy is not slowing down he’s getting a seat at the big table. Qatar is getting behind LNG, I reckon it’s just another power source but will now be promoted like every other alternative to see the media…. What happens when he lands the biggest gas reserve in the gulf? Why on earth would America continue to import oil if we have this resource right at our doorsteps, plus it pivots on the green movement. Suck it 💎🥷🚀

Kind-Week6443

Check this out Donald trump golden boy and blackrocks protogé I believe that there’s no way that he can fail. I do know that black rock has always used news and media to their advantage, manipulating what the public perceives as a failing company. This guy put so much infrastructure in place and has the projection by 2027 to be pumping out 10,000,000 tonsof LNG a year worth over $5 billion not to mention the guy build plants and I’m sure gets paid for running the plants and I wouldn’t be surprised if he really step it up as Trumps in office, my thesis about why short squeezing NFE is a good idea for retailers is because the value here is not like a meme stock squeeze like shitty companies like beyond or GameStop. This company is growing and once it seats it downhill run with all that momentum…. The value to look at is not in what the earnings have been nor what his debt is, but what is important is who owes him favors (Donald 100 million) and what infrastructure he’s already put in place i’d like to sharewhat tipped my meter, the couple telltales that gave it away to me…. Lead me down the real rabbit holes, this idea that Puerto Rico is not happening… the gave away too much info by saying the shipment for a working plant is late, it’s late because of a hurricane is news? The news is that a plant needs fuel to run and a loaded lng carrier with that much dangerous cargo has a destination and need to debunker all that somewhere, even deeper after i started digging and found that a contract in Pennsylvania is back up and running… tell me, if a company we’re on the verge of bankruptcy. I believe that salvaging the news of one failed contract would be something all over Bloomberg, great value to reassure your investors, on the other hand, what did drop on the same day a few hours later was all this noise about possible bankruptcy and the only thing bankruptcy talk does is it deters investors from wanting to continue their investment and it deters new investors, the truth is this guy is not slowing down he’s getting a seat at the big table. Qatar is getting behind LNG, I reckon it’s just another power source but will now be promoted like every other alternative to see the media…. What happens when he lands the biggest gas reserve in the gulf? Why on earth would America continue to import oil if we have this resource right at our doorsteps, plus it pivots on the green movement. Suck it 💎🥷🚀

Kind-Week6443

Short squueze NFE I believe that there’s no way that he can fail. I do know that black rock has always used news and media to their advantage, manipulating what the public perceives as a failing company. This guy put so much infrastructure in place and has the projection by 2027 to be pumping out 10,000,000 tonsof LNG a year worth over $5 billion not to mention the guy build plants and I’m sure gets paid for running the plants and I wouldn’t be surprised if he really step it up as Trumps in office, my thesis about why short squeezing NFE is a good idea for retailers is because the value here is not like a meme stock squeeze like shitty companies like beyond or GameStop. This company is growing and once it seats it downhill run with all that momentum…. The value to look at is not in what the earnings have been nor what his debt is, but what is important is who owes him favors (Donald 100 million) and what infrastructure he’s already put in place i’d like to sharewhat tipped my meter, the couple telltales that gave it away to me…. Lead me down the real rabbit holes, this idea that Puerto Rico is not happening… the gave away too much info by saying the shipment for a working plant is late, it’s late because of a hurricane is news? The news is that a plant needs fuel to run and a loaded lng carrier with that much dangerous cargo has a destination and need to debunker all that somewhere, even deeper after i started digging and found that a contract in Pennsylvania is back up and running… tell me, if a company we’re on the verge of bankruptcy. I believe that salvaging the news of one failed contract would be something all over Bloomberg, great value to reassure your investors, on the other hand, what did drop on the same day a few hours later was all this noise about possible bankruptcy and the only thing bankruptcy talk does is it deters investors from wanting to continue their investment and it deters new investors, the truth is this guy is not slowing down he’s getting a seat at the big table. Qatar is getting behind LNG, I reckon it’s just another power source but will now be promoted like every other alternative to see the media…. What happens when he lands the biggest gas reserve in the gulf? Why on earth would America continue to import oil if we have this resource right at our doorsteps, plus it pivots on the green movement. Suck it 💎🥷🚀

Kind-Week6443

I believe that there’s no way that he can fail. I do know that black rock has always used news and media to their advantage, manipulating what the public perceives as a failing company. This guy put so much infrastructure in place and has the projection by 2027 to be pumping out 10,000,000 tonsof LNG a year worth over $5 billion not to mention the guy build plants and I’m sure gets paid for running the plants and I wouldn’t be surprised if he really step it up as Trumps in office, my thesis about why short squeezing NFE is a good idea for retailers is because the value here is not like a meme stock squeeze like shitty companies like beyond or GameStop. This company is growing and once it seats it downhill run with all that momentum…. The value to look at is not in what the earnings have been nor what his debt is, but what is important is who owes him favors (Donald 100 million) and what infrastructure he’s already put in place i’d like to sharewhat tipped my meter, the couple telltales that gave it away to me…. Lead me down the real rabbit holes, this idea that Puerto Rico is not happening… the gave away too much info by saying the shipment for a working plant is late, it’s late because of a hurricane is news? The news is that a plant needs fuel to run and a loaded lng carrier with that much dangerous cargo has a destination and need to debunker all that somewhere, even deeper after i started digging and found that a contract in Pennsylvania is back up and running… tell me, if a company we’re on the verge of bankruptcy. I believe that salvaging the news of one failed contract would be something all over Bloomberg, great value to reassure your investors, on the other hand, what did drop on the same day a few hours later was all this noise about possible bankruptcy and the only thing bankruptcy talk does is it deters investors from wanting to continue their investment and it deters new investors, the truth is this guy is not slowing down he’s getting a seat at the big table. Qatar is getting behind LNG, I reckon it’s just another power source but will now be promoted like every other alternative to see the media…. What happens when he lands the biggest gas reserve in the gulf? Why on earth would America continue to import oil if we have this resource right at our doorsteps, plus it pivots on the green movement. Suck it 💎🥷🚀

No_Aerie_2717

VG 👌🏿 LNG demand will increase more from EU.

No_Aerie_2717

Regarding energy : LNG (Venture Global)

No_Aerie_2717

Venture Global guys! This will benefit from EU-Russia LNG ban. Ukraine needs more LNG.

No_Aerie_2717

Venture Global guys! EU-Russia LNG sanctions will benefit this company.

FunnyFlight5030

I just had a really wet fart. CALLs on LNG.

AJLResearch

Tough to say. I think in the bullish scenarios you could x4 or x5 your money by early 2030s and x10 it by the mid 2030s. There is a lot of upside convexity to this stock. That said, there is a good degree of risk both with the company and the business model of these LNG export companies.

BL00211

It’s not oil that they had a monopoly on - it’s natural gas and specifically natural gas delivered to Europe. Cutting off gas supply was a massive threat to Europe at the start of the war - at that point almost 70% of Germanys natural gas was from Russia. Natural gas is not easy to transport without pipelines and LNG facilities can take years to build. However, when the war started the US, Middle East and Europe were able to come up with multiple solutions to reduce the need of Russian gas. I’d suggest you go back and look at the outlook from 2021/2022 on the risk of losing Russian gas - the narrative is almost exactly the same on losing Chinese rare earth minerals.

wickedR0b0t

The trump angle was covered in link 11, that's why I said to make sure to read the very end of the article. Edens is also tight with democrats as well, he has considerable pull across the Isle. Which only makes me wonder how come NFE struggles so much with the Puerto Rico deal. But if Egypt really wants to expand its LNG operations I really wouldn't be surprised if they just expanded their business with companies they already work with. And with EU banning Russian LNG, Egypt is in excellent position, being just across the Mediterranean. And as I said, they were instrumental in the recent Gaza peace deal and I really don't think they will risk angering the US at this point by working with the companies under sanctions. But ok, let's wait and see. As you said, black rock usually doesn't back companies about to go under.

BenjaminDanklin1776

Energy, Critical Minerals, and Space. Some of mine are MP, LAC, Lynas, LNG,Bloom,FCX, UAMY, LUNR, and RKLB. Currently sitting at 101% returns.

wickedR0b0t

They do have some financial issues, tbh. That multibillion deal with Puerto Rico that keeps being stalled really kicked them in the teeth. If they manage to close it they should be in a rather good shape. Or if Egyptian LNG angle expands in scope, as I'm speculating here.

bs_123

Love to see this. One time I wrote a whole 3 page reason on Wallstreetbets and when I went to post it was immediately rejected by admins. Not sure why. NEXT happens to be in a space im very familiar with. Ive been working on oil and gas projects for years as an engineer, and most recently LNG projects. I watched workers get paid out huge sums of money at Cheniere as their first trains came online. I was actually recently offered an on staff engineering job at Nextdecade, but i couldn't get my family to agree to move to Brownsville unfortunately. Next is being built by Bechtel, a very solid EPC with discipline in controlling costs and project delivery. They have a reputation of being very capable and solid in the industry. They maybe getting stretched a little thin with the 2 major LNG projects they're building but they're the largest American EPC and dominating right now. I know the Nextdecade commissioning manager and operations staff. They've got a really solid good team of people unlike other projects ive seen that suffer from bad leadership. The opportunity to invest in Cheniere was a 5 year 2x if you invested around the time NEXT is currently at in their development (a year or 2 away from a cargo). But it was already at a market cap of 20 billion. NEXT is less than 2 billion with an easy doubling from here as soon as a drop of LNG comes out of that plant in 2026/2027, and the potential to go up to half of Chenieres pre LNG valuation at the least of 10 billion. I know of no other stock where that's a mid to high likelihood. Ive invested quite a bit and will continue to accumulate.

jhamlin0801

$TGLO is currently a shell company which is majority owned by Delfin Midstream. Delfin Midstream is a developer of Floating Liquified Natural Gas, which will export LNG to other countries. Delfin's management team are mostly former Golar executives. They know what they're doing.

creemeeseason

>The only inexpensive parts of the market are energy, which has no growth, and healthcare, There are segments of energy with plenty of growth in the future. Offshore drillers, for example, are dirt cheap if you look at any projection. Natural gas demand is skyrocketing too between LNG export terminals and power generation. There's a lot of sectors that are cheap right now. Restaurants are in the dumps. Ditto trucking (with improving fundamentals) and logistics. There are insurance names trading cheap (though we might be entering a softer market) and quality regional banks trading at/near TBV. Or finding overlooked individual names.....NATL is trading at 7x forward earnings while hoovering up stock and growing their ATM business. CCSI is another cheap name. Biotech has been gutted. Emerging markets are still relatively cheap with names like MELI and CAAP trading at depressed multiples. I have the problem of more ideas than money.

burgerbread

Turbines now have extremely long lead times, which is restricting the growth of gas consumption. Domestic and international markets are both competing for turbines, and I expect the domestic market (datacenters) to be able to pay more, which means more gas consumption domestically vs internationally. Solar + battery is on parity / cheaper than natural gas, with much shorter lead times, and getting cheaper every year. For example, Pakistan has seen a huge growth in residential solar, reducing their forecast gas consumption by a large amount and diversion of LNG cargos. Expecting that same story to play out in the developing world. This is also helped by the US is restricting Chinese solar/battery imports, which will then be redirected to what were forecast to be market LNG markets. Interest rates are going down, capital is looking to diversify internationally. High financing costs for projects in developing countries has always hurt solar given the large up-front investment, so this will be a huge driver.

Dealer_Chemical

Forget Soybeans and LNG. Trump should make china by BYND.

Brave-Bit-252

May I ask why? I see energy demand increasing exponantially over the next decades (😌). Besides AI and robotics, there are huge parts of the world that have lots of room to grow in terms of general tech and industrialisation. And those are exactly the countries that are going to need LNG. Another factor, even tho more of a personal vision of mine, is the space sector that does not only use LNG as part of rocket fuel, in a growing space economy, like manufactoring in space and what not (Bezos was talking data centers in space), LNG would be the perfect Energy spüle to be transported via rockets. Obviously solar works very well in space, but I’m sure it’s not applicable for every situation. Next Decade is a long term hold. Tbh it doesn’t really belong in this sub.

Brave-Bit-252

Hippies can cope as much as they want, in the end LNG is the most efficient way to Transport Energy reliably. Also part of NEXTs business model is focusing on CO2 neutral LNG, i think by carbon capture, this might give them an edge when it comes to the european customers. Energy demand is going to increase drastically, I don’t think europe will ever be 100% renewables.

LiyangHuang

I agree management matters a lot, but i feel like the news of the completion of train 1 will be a huge catalyst even before we see how operationally competent NEXT’s management is. Also from what I’ve seen NEXT’s management seems pretty level headed and decent. can’t really say for certain of course, but the recent two FIDs in two months give me confidence. they also plan to pay down debt during phase 1 ramp up while trains 4 and 5 are being built. it doesnt seem like they’re in for a quick payday and get out, it seems like they actually want to run the company. VG arguably fucked themselves by fucking over their customers. also their trains were built in a way that allowed that, since they went with the smaller factory built train model so they could actually produce before it was actually “complete”. that’s not even an option for NEXT so there should be minimal risk for NEXT to be tangled in similar arbitrations. yeah the market risk is large, but i guess that just comes down to if you’re bullish or bearish on LNG demand. there’s a ton of hype around nuclear, renewables, etc, but LNG should always have a place given it’s the cleanest of the fossil fuels, and nuclear plants cant ramp up and down easily like gas can, renewables all have issues, solar needs daytime or massive batteries which might not be commercially viable for a while. wind needs wind. hydro needs very specific conditions. So even in a world with increasing solar, wind, nuclear buildout, gas should be the last fossil fuel to go. And LNG offers flexibility that pipeline gas doesnt, so i feel like there will always be a market, although it may not be a great market. And the contracted volumes for phase 1 is like 90%, so phase 1 risk is much smaller. I like the vision, i think there’s great potential. imagine their vision is realized. the spreads stay consistent or dont drop too much. construction completes on time. management is decent at running things. trains 6-8 finish development and commercialization. What kind of valuation are we at then? if 3x what they are worth now then that situation only needs to happen 33% of the time for it to be a good bet. not taking into account opportunity cost, but you get what im saying.

LiyangHuang

yeah that’s true, and the major risk. But I think LNG will have increasing demand. I mean EU is switching to cleaner energy, asia is too and LNG offers flexibility. the ceo said recently also that he believes the stock is undervalued even given the worst estimations of coming market conditions. nothing is certain but that’s why there’s potential for this to be a multi bagger. i think also 85% is contracted across all 5 trains. that’s a lot. although im guessing NEXT’s exposure in phase 1 to bad market conditions may be higher given that they only get their share of the cash assuming debtors and other joint partners get their share.

Elons-Musky-Balls

Yea that’s the move honestly. I been adding to ET which is a LNG pipeline play that pays a stupid high divi and will be a huge part of the power for data center build out no one noticed yet and I been watching oil if it goes any lower I’ll probably buy some

HunterAffectionate96

Bechtel is the best out there - no doubt on that when it comes to construction. Execution not only applies to Bechtel but how capable is the management is the real question. Everyone can agree Cheniere management is exceptional - when it comes to operations. An example of this is VG - not very good guys. Sometimes people need to learn not to believe everything that the management says. VG mgmt told investors arbitration should be favorable - but then recently got smashed when they lost to BP (albeit won against SHEL). How about the next 5 arbitrations? NEXT mgmt says macro outlook is good - yes but not in the near term (of course I might be wrong) but seems the risk / reward is a bit skewed imo. Russian Arctic 2 is a big risk (and Sakhalin and Yamal will continue to run) not to mention Qatar NFE. Recently Pouyanne (TTE CEO) and SHEL and other major IOCs saying LNG oversupply is a key risk in the near term. These guys know what they are doing - have robust trading / marketing businesses and are the major LNG offtakers. Of course I might be wrong but there are other good and less risky investments out there that NEXT.

Reasonable_Roger

Chilly af out there. Also the europoors are sucking up all our LNG.

burgerbread

Exactly. Huge flood of LNG supply coming online in the Gulf Coast Increased gas demand in the US (datacenters, restrictions on renewables) China flooding the world with cheap solar & batteries NG turbines supply limited Possible economic turbulence, lower displacement of legacy coal plants. How can anyone think that the current HH/TTF/JKM spreads are sustainable.

burgerbread

You're right that contracted volumes are protected due to the HH basis; those are low-risk tolling fees. However, when international LNG demand is less than forecast (either due to lower HH-TTF/JKM spreads, lower cost renewables displacing gas consumption), non-contracted volumes will go to 0. The capacity covered under SPAs are causing significant downside risk to volumes not covered under SPAs. With more and more FIDs occurring with a smaller share of capacity under contract, it seems like everyone is just hoping there's endless demand internationally for LNG. In reality, i don't see spreads going up, and much more likely to go down.

HunterAffectionate96

Don’t think so - Cheniere has shown a track record of execution and the scale is much different than newer developers. Also favorable SPA contracts signed at 3-3.5 per mmbtu across Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. 95% contracted and has small amount left exposed to ttf/jkm. Lots of bearishness in the LNG market and Qatari LNG will flood the market - oversupply in 2027-2030 will likely tighten TTF and Henry Hub spread. You said NEXT has 75% contracted - meaning 25% will need to be on spot at contracted spreads… not good. Arbs will not be good, and basis spread opps limited for NEXT. EV/EBITDA 2 yr fwrd is ~10x for Cheniere. Need to layer in some discount for NEXT. Also NEXT is greenfield - capex per ton of ~1.2k? Vs Cheniere is 5-600 per ton. Newer brownfields around 800. If you look at that capex per ton, IRR is much compressed probs in the mid single to high single digits? Is it attractive? Don’t think so. Longer term post 2030 maybe

burgerbread

The demand is from foreign countries for US LNG; data center demand is for US gas in pipelines. This is actually bad for these LNG companies. Supply side, US gas prices could be going up. Demand side, LNG has to compete with cheaper and cheaper renewables.

LiyangHuang

i think though pipeline gas and LNG also have different uses, pipeline gas requires a ton of infrastructure, and sure it’s cheaper after but LNG can be shipped anywhere without the need for that expensive and time intensive infrastructure

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** NEXT **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy stock and 2027+ LEAPs. Company is building LNG facilities with pre-sold capacity and fixed construction costs, creating a highly predictable path to massive cash flow starting in 2027. Could be a 23-bagger if they execute their full vision over the next decade. **Timeline:** Very, very long. See you in the next decade. **Risk:** Execution fails, LNG demand craters, or Russia decides to play nice and flood Europe with cheap gas again.