LNG

PooPooPointBoiz

I'm aware, and yet I've seen article after article that say that AI hallucinates, that it makes errors, and that it is not ready to replace people yet. I just don't get why the "ai hype" is peaking now of all times, in the midst of a war where the global economy is getting fucked from lack of oil, fertilizer, and LNG.

RODjij

Yeah, this seems like total hopium from the market cause the fighting has stopped for the last week. 20% of the global oil production is destroyed or shut down along with the worlds largest LNG producer in Qatar shutting down. I think stuff is so bad right now people have no choice to keep their cash in assets to fight off unemployment & inflation, proping the market up. America is still the worlds financial hub and it still has its benefits in uncertain times. Cause right now investors are fighting with unemployment, AI, inflation, gas pricing, energy pricing, housing & vehicle increases, civil unrest. Practically anything that involves spending money is getting out of control.

Sensitive-Radish-292

That's Europe, and most of the blame falls onto idiotic "green" governments that pushed nuclear out with an over-reliance on LNG. That coupled with poor economical planning and inability to project power is the reason why Europe is fucked. It took them several years and many ... many dead protesters (no the 30k that died this year weren't the only dead ones) to finally acknowledge that the IRGC is a terrorist group, that was actively seeking to get nuclear weapons. Their entire research was focused on ballistic missiles (hint: that's not really a defensive weapon). All war game simulations demonstrated that the first thing they'll do is economic terrorism. They saw this first hand before via their proxy group (houthis). All they had to do -- if not fight along with the US -- is to not oppose the US in their fight. This is the only reason why the IRGC regime has been fighting for close to 3 years (starting with October 7). Reality is that they wanted to see the US bleed, just like the US and EU wanted to see Russia bleed. Instead EU will bleed. You reap what you sow. As someone who grew up and lived in Europe for over 30 years - sincerely fuck the EU. End of story.

TheoryInttro

Taiwan only has 11 days of LNG for electricity production left. TSM uses 9-10% of Taiwans electricity. I think you're overestimating the runway left on the fabs in Taiwan.

GideonWainright

Their problem is LNG reliance, as they're bidding against the asians.  Oil less so since they already tax the fuck out of that. I am guessing they either do a deal with Russia or maybe burn coal and restart the german nuclear reactors?

Running_OutOfTime

Nobody tell the markets that 20% of the world's oil and LNG is stuck in the middle east.

Jazari1

LNG rippin

LightOverWater

Oil flows outside the Strait have increased significantly. Once the Strait is open, you have consistent progress every week in more oil flowing. The world will exceed pre-war oil capacity by Q4. Reddit does not understand the extent of the damage and seems to think taking 2 mbpd of capacity offline means the world is going to end. Markets are foreword-looking; all it needs to know is that the situation is improving. Oil being a physical commodity does have its limits, but as long as the Strait opens in April we'll be perfectly fine. You also do NOT need cheap oil for the economy to thrive. The US economy has proven to be very resilient. We don't need $70 oil. The economy can manage $90 oil perfectly fine. There are plays elsewhere, perhaps in LNG or fertilizer, but oil is actually the one that has the best chance of coming back online. Inflation is not eating away at everything. It takes awhile for inflation to creep up. The risk isn't actually inflation itself, but to the fed raising rates as a consequence.

MarsTellus13

I wrote about basically this on Tuesday and got some positive feedback, lot of shit for writing too much. But yeah I think a lot of heads in the sand forgetting that the fed can't print oil, LNG or helium.

TastyToad

Rough is relative. India and SE Asia are rationing nat gas already. Europe is relatively safe for now but the dependency on LNG imports will bite us in the ass once it's time to refill. (Still the lesser evil tnan directly funding our biggest enemy but it won't be smooth sailing for some time).

Fair-Lie8125

Brooooo that looks just like my account when I was 23 and trying to gamble that LNG prices would skyrocket (they didn’t) Welcome friend.

RichIndependence8930

No they aren't, there is no new drilling happening at a large scale. Oil companies don't consider it worth it to expand right now. ME exporters fixing stuff as fast as possible is still subject to timelines on the parts especially distillation towers and other high complexity equipment. Nonetheless, if the war-that is still going on mind you-starts again and more missiles start falling. Or the Houthis block the Red Sea. People here are acting like its over which is very odd to me. Russia will not do anything that lowers the price of oil or LNG. Why would they? they are making a killing right now. Transit and logistic issues can still be severely negatively impactful. Japan and Taiwan and South Korea won't be seeing any tankers that are now in the Gulf of Mexico for another 50 days for anything bigger than Panamax. And we are stuck loading the VLCCs offshore because their draft is too deep. Even with perfect logistics, the USA is only filling in around 25 percent both LNG and crude of what the ME was putting out through the Hormuz before this. And LNG is a way bigger issue for Japan, who in the worst case scenario will dump US treasuries if this keeps up.

Neemzeh

LNG calls in April? lol.

NazgulSandwich

Even with a deal this doesn't really make sense since infrastructure has been damaged and the oil, fertilizer, and LNG shock as it comes back down will still keep inflation high, cuts further out, and growth low. If missiles start flying again next week are we going to see a circuit breaker if it has fully priced in a deal with full hormuz opening immediately? Who fucking knows.

TastyToad

It's complicated. TL;DR. There's no real time correlation but there's trouble brewing. In my case (Poland) there's a national monopoly that dictates prices of both nat gas and petrol but it's state owned so it cannot do whatever the fuck it wants because the government would bear the blame. So there's some wiggle room. Retail prices are heavily regulated. Industry prices too, to a lesser degree. On top of that there's seasonality. Everyone (except southern Europe maybe) fills up their national storage during summer and empties it up during winter. Then there's climate change. We've had a decade or two of mild winters but this time chicken came home to roost. Polar vortex has broken down and we've had weeks of cold weather not seen since 90s. Nothing is certain in this environment but the risks are pretty obvious: - since cutting off most of the Russian gas supply Europe is heavily dependent on LNG imports - gulf production is disrupted - US is unstable politically, mango could limit the deliveries out of spite - overall macro environment is not good - elevated defense spending could limit the ability of governments to suppress the energy prices

haniyarae

I mean I’m with you, I’m in VG and it’s following LNG pretty closely. I could be very wrong and very dumb but feels like the MMs are trying to offload their AI bags before dumping again. I think LNG’s earnings in the next few weeks will be a reality check. GL!

GailaMonster

when is that "soon"? every country has a different stockpile. China I think has the biggest one. Some countries are already struggling (Ireland was already in a protracted fuel crisis). and this doesn't speak to LNG reserves, which will also need to be full before it gets cold...

DefiantDelta

they have 10 days of LNG reserves left

TastyToad

Don't bother. Bull retards do non-stop victory laps on the upside, disappear if the downside is longer than two days, just to come back and claim they all bought the dip. LNG calls are a solid idea (sadly, for an europoor like myself). I'm at the point of seriously considering adding a heat pump to the mix, might end up cheaper than heating with nat gas only.

Routine-Phrase457

I have that on my watch list because of spot prices in their business model.. but went with LNG because it’s biggest exporter of gas to Europe

ActivatingEMP

Sorry we don't care about the real world here, all that matters is some guy said AI. LNG fueling TSMC? Helium needed for data centers? Global supply chain disruptions as large as COVID? None of that matters hop on

EnglishBrekkie_1604

You clearly aren’t grasping the severity of the situation. Oil isn’t “one thing”, the price of oil is basically the price of energy, and to an economy the price of energy is *everything*. Look at what 10% of oil supply being cut off for half a year did to the global economy in the 70s. This is *at minimum* twice as bad, but it now includes LNG, another vital source of energy, and also impacts fertiliser, which will massively increase the price of food. It is literally the biggest energy shock in human history. You’re also just discarding the possibility that this goes on for months, which isn’t just possible but I’d argue the most likely outcome. The economic consequences of this have the potential to be Great Depression tier. It could get really horrific, it’ll likely cause widespread famine in poorer countries, and it’ll completely ruin both international and US supply chains. It is actually apocalyptic.

jb9310

Loading up on CRK, hopefully people turn towards commodities as general market / tech starts to dump again. 🤞Oil markets are already damaged even if they stop the war today. Natural gas / LNG can be a good replacement in some sectors for months coming.

Jasonrj

Why is the LNG price not set globally like oil?

TheoryInttro

Taiwan has 11 days of LNG left for electricity production, TSM is 9%-10% of Taiwans electricity consumption. I'm not sure you can guide good numbers if the government orders your production shut down to preserve electricity for critical infra. Their non-Taiwan locations will not be affected so production won't go to zero but I have a hard time making a bull case here unless someone can 3D-print some LNG for Taiwan.

PassiveF1st

LNG infrastructure in the middle east set back 3-5 years. BULLISH

duefiori

I mean, the rest of the world will suffer more and it's not even close. It's one of the reasons why I so much despise the way the US conducted itself. Some points: 1. The US is the largest producer of oil in the world. There are some issues with refinement (US refineries are mostly not set for the type of oil extracted in the US), so there will be some economic pain, but it is still a powerful card 2. The US is fully self-sufficient for LNG, and the price is not set globally like oil. Huge benefit 3. Some countries are HEAVILY dependent on gulf oil and LNG. E.g., South Korea imports 70% of its oil from there. 4. Many countries in Asia and Africa are dependent on fertilizers from the gulf. The US might have to rotate crops and take a hit to production, but people are unlikely to starve. The UN estimates that 45M people are going to be at risk of acute hunger because of the war (https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167147), and I guarantee you they are not going to be american 5. Currently the issue is the price of these resources, and when price is the issue rich countries can afford to simply spend more to get them. Poor countries in Asia and Africa are going to get shafted when US and European countries simply buy up the available stock for unaffordable prices. 6. Finally, and this is the biggest point: the issue is currently the price of these resources, but if the war goes long enough (even just a few months), then it turns into a stock issue, i.e. there literally won't be enough resources to satisfy needs. If that happens, the countries listed in the points above are in for an absolute world of pain, not even close to the problems that the US will face.

DefiantDelta

“TSMC consumes 9 percent of the island's total electricity. Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy. Taiwan has 11 days of LNG reserves left. In May 2025, Taiwan shut down its last nuclear reactor. It replaced the capacity with natural gas.” wow them and the Germans both fucked up bigly

jr-blackridge

This is the LNG demand destruction argument as well. Countries moving energy away from LNG to renewables as real costs increase.

Babyfat101

Yes! There is a ton of destruction that can’t be fixed quickly. Read up on Qatar and LNG, as just 1 example.

lemurtowne

Oil and natural gas are very different commodities. We've also been in an NG/LNG surplus for a while and a lot of refineries are upping production to offset the middle east disruption.

slick2hold

Turmps buddies are pumping the market. 20% of LNG production is offline yet NG is at record multi-year lows. How the f*ck is that happening. I'm not complaining but how the f*ck does that happen? 20% is offline and NG keeps falling.

West_West_313

I had claude trim the fat from this: This Is Fine: Paper Markets vs. Physical Reality Two terms kept surfacing in my head as a mental health professional when this war began: normalcy bias and habituation. The dog in the burning building saying “this is fine” followed shortly after. Humans facing seismic events tend to follow panic with mean reversion, an assumption that things will probably be OK because they always have been. Algorithms do the same thing, not out of malice but design: trained in normal times, and in normal times mean reversion is usually correct. The problem is that abnormal times don’t announce themselves. Infrastructure damage doesn’t heal with the next soundbite, but the algo reverts after either. The IEA flagged the disconnect directly in its April 14 oil market report: physical crude is trading near $150/bbl while futures markets sit far below that, with the gap becoming “increasingly acute.” CLZ26 is at $77. Parts of Qatar’s Ras Laffan, roughly 17% of total LNG export capacity, are offline for 3 to 5 years minimum, constrained by turbine manufacturers with existing backlogs. Force majeure has been declared on long-term contracts through 2031. Europe enters summer refill season with gas storage at 29%, well short of the 80% required for winter, with no Qatari LNG having transited the Strait of Hormuz since February 28. Natural gas prices still dropped 20% on ceasefire headlines despite none of that changing. The paper markets have decided this is a minor geopolitical disruption. The real world, fuel protests in Ireland, rationing in Italy and Slovenia, emergency planning in Australia and New Zealand, hoarding warnings across Africa, disagrees. Earnings season is where these two realities collide. When companies across virtually every sector report skyrocketing input costs and soft guidance simultaneously, the algos will be responding to numbers, not headlines. I don’t expect the collision to be pleasant.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

TheoryInttro

Next earnings for my oil producer that has 75% of their sales in unhedged Brent and spot LNG should be fun. The earnings for the rest of the industrial portfolio that uses diesel, gasoline and LNG as an input not so much. If I even net zero on the whole trade I'll be stunned.

miata_only

Iran COULD charge up to 1 million per oil tanker Fees COULD generate up to 200 million per day LNG tolls COULD bring in more additional revenue Absolutely useless news coverage, you guys

Perfect_Ganache_1959

Yeah, I guess I am mostly suggesting the discrepancy between cost of ad delivery vs profit margin *probably* is so disconnected from true costs that energy price rise due to oil crisis is inconsequential. Alright, so this is PR from them, but you can see they have aligned a lot of energy usage to renewables. https://sustainability.atmeta.com/data-centers/ Even where it's not that - IE: gas turbines chucked into new data centres - US domestic supply of LNG isn't much affected by lack of oil via Iran. Yes, there are second order effects (who's going to buy the ads if there's no products that can be moved cheaply); but I would argue for the medium term, Meta would just keep on trucking. I mean, they know they are getting 10% of their ad revenue from scams; I'd bet they would happily up that to 20% if slowly trialling it on their users and customers showed they can get away with it: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-07/meta-making-billions-from-scam-ads/105983808 Guessing most of those businesses don't have transport or agriculture intensive concerns that are impacted; except for your Temu-like drops hoppers.

SugarDaddyVA

Bullish for oil and LNG producers.  Calls on XOM, CVC, and LNG.  

niaqr

If you want a really good time check out the difference in spot prices for US contracts on LNG vs Asia and European markets. We're flush with the stuff

filthimartini

How are renewables working out for Germany lol. This is a STOCKS sub, take your political views elsewhere. Stupid take. Be silent. The US will profit from this via oil and LNG. SPX is tech weighted, tech is not affected by whatever nonsense is going on in the ME. But maybe you’re a europoor, so good luck to you 🫡

Time_Assistance1933

lol someone who doesn’t understand what 13 million barrels a day of sweet crude going offline means, not to mention helium, LNG, sulfuric acid, urea or aluminum, enjoy the long tail of repairing the hole in your portfolio, every smart money player who understands macro flows appreciates your “long view” and patience with capital loss

BODYBUTCHER

It’s all imported from Canada, and not as LNG

analogdays

LNG export capacity is limited by infrastructure. With exports maxed out and plenty of domestic production, our domestic prices are disconnected from global prices.

BODYBUTCHER

There is only so many LNG terminals in the USA and their capacity is already practically capped. You would need more American LNG terminals to create more demand for American natural gas

JustaBearEnthusiast

I'm not sure I understand. Wouldn't the natural gas being cut off from Russia and now the gulf states drive up demand/price for American natural gas? Or is it some weird thing where they can't use it American products because it LNG vs NG or something?

filthimartini

US equities do not care about the state of the ME. This is a Europe / ME problem. They will have to ration gas and deal with higher costs moreso than the US. SPX is tech weighted. Tech does not care about the goings on of Iran. US will sell more oil and LNG.

WickOfDeath

The answer is quite short: The market cycle is broken. When gold falls on geopolitical events then something is completely broken here, that is a clear sign of "something new". I would stick to those things which have a clear demand / supply cycle like US nat gas or ags. We all know when Trump will (again) impose 50% tariff on China China wont buy US soybeans any more... which are BTW overpriced compared with Brasil or Argentinia. The US had a record harvest, the ending stocks are high, but the next season might yield less so you coudl assume $14 a bushel in May till the crop growth is known (the relation between seeded seeds and grown seeds which highly depends on the seed quality and the biological / cheemical agents used ) Or the US Natgas. I ran an analsis on the additional demand from Europe... which seemed to be shockingly low , some 5% more from the whole domestic US production. Most likely the missing supply from Qatar wasnt in the model. Since Qatar doesnt supply and the Senegal LNG facility isnt online yet the US NG prices might be suprisingly low. Or there happens some "silent buying"...

Icommandyou

Actually amazing markets aren’t freaking the fuck out considering 20% of all oil and who knows how much helium and LNG has been out of supply since last 42 days

Jatobi1993

They have Australia. Malaysia. Nigeria. Indonesia. Algeria. Trinidad. All LNG sellers.

gkibbe

Na, they can play games all they want. But pretty soon people are gonna need that oil and LNG and it isn't gonna be there. Market will wake up all at once, oil production and sales will be nationalized or heavily regulated, lots of investors will loose their shirts before it all gets reorganized.

SlfImpr

For anyone too lazy to ask ChatGPT, I asked ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini to lay out various scenarios on Middle East conflict. Below is ChatGPT's response (Grok and Gemini weren't as good): \----------- The U.S. blockade looks like a **coercive bargaining move**, not just a shipping-security step. After the April 12 Islamabad talks ended without agreement, Washington appears to be trying to do three things at once: deny Iran the ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, reassert freedom of navigation through a critical global chokepoint, and force Tehran back into talks from a weaker position on nuclear and regional issues. Reuters and AP report the U.S. specifically tied the move to failed talks, Iran’s tolls/mines/threats in the strait, and unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment and proxies. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-talks-pause-now-disagreements-remain-2026-04-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Why this matters: Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. EIA says recent Hormuz disruption has been a major driver of higher oil and gasoline prices, and the strait carries a huge share of global oil and LNG flows. ([U.S. Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # 1) Why the U.S. put the blockade in place **To break Iran’s leverage.** Iran’s ability to threaten or control passage through Hormuz gives it outsized influence over oil markets and global risk sentiment. The blockade is meant to flip that dynamic and make Iran lose, rather than gain, leverage from the strait. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-talks-pause-now-disagreements-remain-2026-04-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **To pressure Iran without immediately expanding to full land war.** A naval blockade is a way to raise pain and show military dominance while stopping short of a much bigger conflict. It is a pressure tactic designed to compel concessions. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/da12451198d54f63926d06983b262f98?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **To protect the principle of open shipping lanes.** The U.S. and Gulf producers do not want a precedent where Iran can charge tolls or decide who gets safe passage through an international chokepoint. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/adnoc-ceo-says-strait-hormuz-not-irans-control-2026-04-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **To create urgency before the ceasefire window expires.** The ceasefire reportedly runs until April 22, but the talks ended without a framework for what comes next. The blockade raises the cost of delay and forces a choice between renewed diplomacy and renewed escalation. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/a8a0d22918fc3fb30bc3abf1cd5c5a13?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # 2) How this could evolve: short to medium term # Scenario 1: Managed standoff The U.S. enforces the blockade selectively, escorts some shipping, clears mines, and Iran responds with threats and limited harassment but avoids direct major war. Tanker traffic remains impaired but not frozen. This is the most plausible near-term path. Reuters already reported some supertankers resuming transit, suggesting partial normalization rather than total shutdown. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-stocks-slide-us-iran-talks-falter-ceasefire-doubts-resurface-2026-04-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Investor impact:** higher oil, elevated volatility, inflation pressure, and some headwind to richly valued tech through rates. # Scenario 2: Return to talks after a show of force The blockade may be intended mainly to improve Washington’s negotiating position. If both sides feel the costs are rising too fast, mediation could restart. That would likely bring a relief move in oil and a risk-on bounce in equities. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/a8a0d22918fc3fb30bc3abf1cd5c5a13?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Investor impact:** best-case outcome for U.S. tech; lower oil, easing inflation fears, and better support for growth multiples. # Scenario 3: Prolonged gray-zone conflict No breakthrough, no full war, but repeated incidents: ship seizures, drones, cyberattacks, proxy strikes, and intermittent attacks around the region. This would keep a lasting geopolitical premium in oil even if the strait is not fully closed. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-stocks-slide-us-iran-talks-falter-ceasefire-doubts-resurface-2026-04-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Investor impact:** persistent macro drag. Big-cap quality tech may hold up better than speculative tech, small caps, or cyclical semis. # Scenario 4: Direct naval clash If Iran attacks U.S. naval assets or commercial shipping in a major way, oil could spike sharply and markets could sell off hard. AP reports analysts already expect an extra $5–$10 per barrel from the blockade announcement alone. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/da12451198d54f63926d06983b262f98?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Investor impact:** bad for high-multiple tech in the short run; favorable for energy, defense, and safe-haven trades. # Scenario 5: Broader regional escalation The worst case is that this expands beyond Hormuz into wider proxy conflict involving Lebanon, Gulf infrastructure, or other regional shipping lanes. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/a8a0d22918fc3fb30bc3abf1cd5c5a13?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Investor impact:** this becomes a broader global risk-off event, not just an oil story. # My base case **Short term:** Scenario 1 or 3. A tense U.S. naval posture, partial enforcement, uneven shipping flows, and headline-driven oil/market volatility. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-stocks-slide-us-iran-talks-falter-ceasefire-doubts-resurface-2026-04-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Medium term:** Scenario 2 or 3. Either the blockade forces renewed talks, or the region settles into a grinding standoff with higher energy prices and recurring volatility. ([AP News](https://apnews.com/article/a8a0d22918fc3fb30bc3abf1cd5c5a13?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # For a U.S. tech investor, the main transmission channel is: **Oil up -> inflation expectations up -> bond yields up -> tech multiples down.** That is the biggest risk. The direct exposure of U.S. tech to the region is limited; the real issue is macro. In a prolonged standoff, mega-cap cash-generative tech should hold up better than speculative growth, smaller software, or semis that are more cyclical.

WickOfDeath

What about NGM long? Europe will buy more LNG from the USA and apparently nothing from Qatar... should be a safe play this year. The NGK dropped as low as 2.6 which usually triggers some pyhsical buying because of contango to be expected.

theSherlockView

No, stock still trades under price targets that use conservative estimates for just LNG, Gold, and Carbon contracts. Abaxx will get a larger market share of those markets then analysts predict and can add on alot more contracts. Wind for example will likely start trading soon once more onboarding is done and Silver will launch as well along with digital title fees.

Rectal_tension

you don't understand how geopolitical commerce works. This won't be a physical blockade, although it certainly has a chance, this is a insurer blockade. Almost certainly insurers have stopped insuring cargo and ships in the strait. This will stop traffic quicker than military blockade. if you look at marine traffic the lanes that Iran used to transit the strait for their own ships are empty now...If a ship is uninsured they will not move into the area. Almost certainly at this point china has contacted Iran and said, quietly, you need to remove constraints and open the strait, 50% of china energy comes through the strait. Now Iran is meeting internally to discuss this.....they have lost china backing and international protection because china is forced to go somewhere else for their energy....Once ships reroute, which has already been happening, once insurers stop insuring, which likely happened immediately upon blockade announcement, the strait becomes irrelevant to global commerce, not for the long term but for the short term. ships go somewhere else, the US Venezuela...etc, and countries begin to sign long term contracts with other suppliers. Where this is going to hurt the most is LNG not oil...everyone thinks in terms of oil but the LNG is the tipping point and qatar energy has already announce force majeure, slowed production and is awaiting a resolution. at this point it's just a waiting game to see when pressure forces Iran's hand. Not US pressure but China's pressure.... Oil and lng prices go up in the short term. If you want a day trade option.

BluesFlute

This is nuts. How does this work? Supposed a vessel carrying LNG and fertilizer negotiates a fee with Iran and departs via Hormuz for Philippines…is US Navy go then going to seize the ship? Then what? Would naval officers even conduct such a stupid, illegal, immoral act? Yet another example of his cognitive incompetence.

SethBrundlez

Can no one see the bigger picture? The US now controls the global flow of energy. It blew up the Nordstream pipeline to break the flow of gas to Europe. The US took over Venezuela to break the flow of oil to China and also pocket serious cash. It is blowing up oil refineries and LNG ships in Russia via Ukraine. By hitting Iran’s Pars gas field, it triggered Iran to take out Qatar’s LNG. The last move is to blow up the Middle East and blockade the remaining flow of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf. The US will then happily sit on the ashes of the global economy and sell its own oil and LNG to the highest bidders, like the pirate empire it has become.

similar_espionage

been following your DDs since the first one and this is wild to see playing out in real time 🔥 the volume explosion is exactly what you called and those shorts are absolutely fucked at this point what caught my attention is how they're basically building the infrastructure that should have existed years ago. shipping gold from NY to Switzerland to London to Asia is genuinely retarded when you think about it in 2024. Singapore makes way more sense as the hub for Asian demand the LNG stuff is probably flying under most people's radar but that's potentially huge. JKM has been the benchmark forever and if Abaxx can actually provide physical delivery that's a massive competitive advantage. oil companies have been using oil contracts for LNG hedging because there wasn't a proper alternative - this could shift serious volume only concern i have is execution risk at this scale. exponential growth is great until it isn't and they need to keep onboarding clients fast enough to maintain momentum. but with Trayport integration done and FBOT approval coming, seems like the infrastructure is there those analyst price targets still seem conservative if they're really going to challenge COMEX market share. 500 mil in revenue at stake just on gold futures alone 💀 position is way smaller than yours but been adding on any dips

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: ABXX (or ABXX.TO) Direction: Up 🚀 Prognosis: Buy Shares (Options do not exist yet, so you'll have to use actual equity like a boomer) Short Sellers: Deeply trapped and sweating bullets Catalysts: Exponential volume growth, dethroning COMEX/ICE, and big insider buying. **Summary:** Abaxx Technologies is rapidly building the next global commodities exchange, launching physically-delivered futures for Gold, LNG, and Lithium that are already beating legacy giants like ICE and COMEX in daily volume. Revenue and trading volumes are growing exponentially, and Wall Street hasn't fully priced it in yet. Meanwhile, massive short positions are stuck in a low-liquidity trap while insiders (like commodity legend Jeff Currie) are dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy up shares.

Jatobi1993

Let’s not assume people will go straight to America for LNG. Given America is the one who threw the monkey wrench into the gears of the world economy, likely people will find other alternatives before going to pay the “firefighter” who was also the arsonist. And some countries might use this as a reason to get off natural gas and oil, or restart their own productions for domestic use to move off them. Granted it’s a stretch but I wouldn’t assume America is going to see many buyers suddenly. The wound is a bit fresh.

Aromatic-Teacher-717

I can guarantee that cruelty isn't staying Trump's hand. This war is existential for Iran, and they've demonstrated by their attack on LNG in Qatar they'll take the region down with them. 

Sweaty_Platypus69

The have LNG though. They will need to source crude oil from other countries - maybe Canada and USA.

staythewaters

"Why would so many of you think this?" I'm going to take this to mean that you don't understand the wider implications of the strait being effectively closed for at least the next month, and then a slow trickle until -- at the most hopeful -- the end of May, when "normal traffic" resumes. Buddy. Pal. Friendo. You can't maintain the current global supply chain without fertilizer. You can't maintain an economy where basic things like LNG are too expensive to afford. Most importantly, oil prices effect every single commodity on the world market you can think of. This is beyond what stock pick you like or not. There is a wider consequence to what is going on right now. Your "buying opportunities" aren't going to mean shit in a wider economic meltdown.

mrsweettreats

Just sit back, relax, and watch the global markets slowly crumble due to extraordinary fuel, plastic, fertilizer, LNG, Helium, Xenon costs

Dangerous_Junket_773

Blew up my LNG tanker 2/5

Leukie0

You are right about spot prices, but they are still very far from 1973's 300% uprise. When speaking about ATH, don't make the mistake to compare 1973's dollars with 2026's or to discard oil supply back then, oil became less abundant with time. Feels wiser to mind about price augmentation for that reason. Indeed the damage dealt to Gulf's oil and LNG output won't be fixed tomorrow, but OPEC countries can export a lot more. Russia and Iran for instance would gladly do so. Main question would be how much oil will be needed in the next 3 to 5 years, which depends on world's GDP growth and a little bit on lesser dependency to fossil energies. Perhaps we won't need as much as we do right now, I don't know about that. I think too that it is the calm before the storm, but can't say it for sure and even if there is a storm, I think governments will shower the economy with cash as they did during previous crises, which would soften the blow a lot.

EnglishBrekkie_1604

The prices you see of Oil are futures, which right now is an absolutely deluded market built on the speculative hopes and dreams of short sellers and inside traders. If you look at the *spot* price, the amount you *actually* pay for oil, it’s over $140, which is nearly an all time high. Even if the war stopped now and the straight opened up (and it absolutely won’t stop by the way, and will not stop for a while because Israel wants this to keep going), the long term damage to the region is really severe (nearly 20% of Qatar’s LNG output is offline for a few years), and there’s an entire months worth of oil missing from the market, so it’ll be a repeat of COVID era supply shocks but even worse and for literally everything. Right now this is basically the early months of the COVID pandemic, the calm before the storm.

Puzzled-Intern-7897

While I agree, it would be short sighted not to try and trade. I am simply looking out for myself and right now I believe a longer conflict is reasonably likely, and more importantly that even if it "stops" Iran will not just toll the strait, but also control it, meaning that the volumes of oil on the market will be smaller than before. If they really did mine the strait, a demining effort could take months by some estimates. Not to talk of rebuilding the infrastructure, which at least for LNG is estimated by QatarEnergy to take 3-5 years

pandadrizzle

Don’t sleep on $VG. LNG exports are booming!

chairman-me0w

Or the catalyst for this rally was freed He, LNG supply for east Asia manufacturers

Accomplished-Web4073

I'm mostly in cash right now, except for my long-term portfolio where my unit price is very low (and I have no interest on trading there). I'll probably DCA in stockpicks on red days. Meanwhile, I try to learn about industries I don't know, like LNG and helium.

ChampagneWastedPanda

It’s a coking fire. Not oil or LNG

Tirikemen

It likely will be until next year at least. Maybe not $100, but \~$90s easily, and definitely not as low as it had been the last year. The damage to global inventory levels has already been done. Even if the strait fully opens tomorrow, it will take weeks for what's already loaded on tankers to reach its destination. It will take weeks or months (years for some LNG) to repair all the damaged infrastructure and get production back to pre-war levels. So inventory levels will be low, and they will stay low for the foreseeable future. And that will keep oil higher th

ForCrying0utLoud

I agree that supply chains issues will continue to persist in the short term and we probably haven't even seen the worse of it yet actually - fertilizer, food, and LNG costs. But in the long term, oil demand is more elastic. Assuming we settle somewhere around 80 I think we'll start to see consumers switch to alternatives in which case there will be a new level of equilibrium set by the adjusted demand for oil. I'm leaning bearish but who knows, the market doesn't seem to care (atm).

MegalodonBite

The market DOESNT know this or they would be long LNG/OIL/Fertilizer. The market assumption is that this will be a blip like Venezuela or Cuba.

MegalodonBite

Connecting the dots - CVX (Chevron) needed higher gas prices to improve liquidity per your post. They now have higher gas prices for the next 1-2yrs based on the damage caused already in the middle east. Thus - OIL / LNG looks like a strong bet for the next 1-5yrs.

Necromancer2k8

Because the US is on pace for another record production year. It's warmer then normal in the main buying & usage areas this time of year. The places that do need it are anywhere from 20-60 days by ocean from the gulf export hub so you gotta wait for ships to either come back or the hummus strait to open fully. Plus we got far too much in storage. All just bad news on NG/LNG front.

loxatar

We massively overproduce in the US and end up flaring a large amount domestic natural gas production. LNG has been climbing precipitously though in Europe and Asia.

snower88

over 30,000 vessels under typical conditions, with most being cargo ships and tankers carrying oil and LNG, pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually $2m per ship means profit of $60 trillion per annum.

Kabrosif

Bols still don’t know 95% of all Helium comes from LNG production as it is a by-product from natural gas being cooled to -193 degrees Celsius. Helium cannot be replaced in Microchip Manufacturing and as long as the straits closed their Tech Calls and Stocks are fuk. This has been a 🌈ber report. 🫡

BaggyLarjjj

I said the same thing. One time I went to Costco and wound up taking out a LNG facility in Qatar. Totally one off. Trump is still a genius who in no way completely fucked the world with his taxpayer funded makeup studio demanding alcoholic SecDef and his complete lack of strategy and shit his pants into the biggest foreign policy blunder ever after being warned by any analyst even remotely competent.

SouthernDrag8

An important one to have here is Avanti Helium (AVN.V or ARGYF). They stand out among the pack because they are on track to bring production online this summer which will bring it significant renevues (relative to current market cap) and will benefit from the supply crunch effect on helium prices. There's been a pullback recently from the "ceasefire" but the helium supply has been semi permanently disrupted due to the damage caused to the Qatar LNG facilities, so it's a good time to jump in.

staythewaters

This isn't just some choppiness. This entire thing has been a disaster. Israel haven't actually stopped bombing Iran, the Pakistan PM explicitly said Lebanon is covered in the ceasefire, meanwhile the US and Israel say something different about the *terms they agreed to*. Israel just murdered 300 people in Beirut. There's not any alternative to boats being stranded behind the strait. And there's no alternative to the gas fields being bombed already that supplied the world with 20% of our LNG. You can't send tankers up the goddamned Shatt Al Arab. There is no other waterway out of the Gulf that can take that traffic. Iran can absolutely keep the Strait closed for as long as they want, because the only thing that matters to them is the oil they sell to keep coming off of Kharg Island. Oil prices bring high benefits them. Moreso now that Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline was hit. Y'all don't understand what this is. It's not merely a logistics issue.

visageplayer

You have fallen for fake news my friends sorry. Its only 2% of LNG offline. Journalists can't do math never listen to journalists. >QatarEnergy told Reuters that Iranian attacks damaged 2 of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, knocking out 12.8 million tonnes per year for 3–5 years, equal to 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. Against the IGU’s latest global liquefaction capacity figure of 494.4 MTPA, that is only about 2.6% of global liquefaction capacity, not 25%.

MountainTwo3845

a quarter of the world's LNG went offline. it's not inconsequential.

OddBaker

What are people’s thoughts on LNG stocks such as Cheniere and ARC? They fell alongside oil but isn’t there some value there? Oil currently is almost entirely impacted by the status of Hormouz, whereas with LNG you have major Qatari infrastructure that’s destroyed and it’s estimated it’ll take at least 3 years to repair.

OddBaker

In terms of energy wouldn’t LNG stocks such as Cheniere and ARC be a better dip play especially for the longer term upside? Oil currently is almost entirely impacted by the status of Hormouz, whereas with LNG you have major Qatari infrastructure that’s destroyed and it’s estimated it’ll take at least 3 years to repair.

Routine-Phrase457

Dude… I’m still holding my calls on LNG… we’ll see when winter hits

strawberrygirlmusic

If the strait stays closed Oil is more expensive, so the US oil producers get more money. If the data centers get built, most of the infrastructure runs on LNG, so more demand for Oil and the US oil producers get more revenue. Buy the dip.

iapetus_z

8 think you vastly underestimate the amount of time it takes to complete an LNG train. There might be some coming online but those cargos are already probably already sold.

Important-Agent2584

The thing is that it's all been speculation so far. It takes about a month for the tankers to reach Europe and China. China is a bit faster so the last tanker to leave before the closure has already arrived I think, and it's still on it's way for Europe. The same goes for LNG, and fertilizer problems wont be seen till the end of the growing season. Basically, the real world shit is just starting now, and it's going to steadily escalate because even if everything is magically fixed right now, the supply chain will take a long time to get fixed.

Icy_Essay2641

If I was a betting man I’d say nothing going to get resolved in 2 weeks, at least not with the straight. If energy keeps dropping over next few days into next week I may pick up some LNG/oil stocks.

GideonWainright

Folks don't understand we dodged catastrophe, not unfucked oil & LNG. If we hadn't surrendered, the terrorists would have blown up the oil & gas fields.  The hostage lives but now Iran can shakedown shipping, at least until the Gulf countries do a deal or get drone parity and new mercenaries by shipping some cash to the newest arms dealer, UKR.

convergence_trades

Your framing on this as a structural tariff rather than a transient shock is worth taking seriously, and there's a public dataset that gives it some support. STOCK Act filings from members on Armed Services and Energy committees — who receive classified briefings on the actual state of Strait negotiations — haven't shown the E&P rotation you'd expect if informed actors believed the toll regime was genuinely short-term. The 45-day disclosure window means exits would start to appear now if committee members with classified visibility were pricing a clean resolution into their personal portfolios. That rotation hasn't shown up in recent filings. Your Oman point is actually the most important detail in the whole post. Co-participation in toll collection from a country that has historically been a neutral maritime intermediary changes the political economy of reversing this regime entirely. Future administrations face a much harder calculation than "bomb the toll booth." The commodity chain implications you outlined — fertilizer, LNG, helium — are tracking toward a durable structural shift, not a war premium that deflates when the news cycle moves on.

GideonWainright

A lot of shit got blown up and normal shipping might take a while to kick back in. That will keep oil and LNG still high for a while, stoking inflation and no sweet rate cuts. Long term who knows - the Israelis will want us to keep bombing, the isolationists will want T to cut and run.

iapetus_z

I thought I saw somewhere that something like 4% of the global LNG trains had been knocked offline for like the next 3 years.

IvoryTowerResident

love solar here. Cant imagine ppl not accelerating their transition out of oil and LNG for electricity

Effective-Split-1333

He’ll expect them to eat it. Watch Middle East capital it’s going to slowly rotate out of US, not fast enough to trigger government intervention. But they are pissed. Their hit gas plants will take 3-5 years at least to repair. Helium, LNG, petrochemicals for plastics and fertilizer all f’ed bigly. 30% drop in capacity. Market oil prices are not reflective of reality ie sub 100 dollars. Refiners paying 150 dollars a barrel. At some point the two prices will meet.

NedFlanders304

Iran is a little different than Russia. The Strait of Hormuz was closed therefore disrupting the world’s oil supply. And Iran attacked Qatar’s LNG plant and destroyed two trains which disrupted the world’s LNG supply. None of that happened with Russia.

Bumst3r

So seriously, what is the long-term bull case? Iran’s 10 point plan is a non-starter, nobody will insure the ships to pass through the Ayatoll-booth, and tons of gulf oil and LNG infrastructure are destroyed with years to repair.

spsteve

A civilization was never going to be ended. Trump fired off his big yap and then had to feed this narrative to Pakistan (read the story on the initial tweet by the Pakistani PM that was originally titled 'Draft message from Pakistan's PM for X' (yes that line was at the top of the tweet initially! LOL). Trump needed an off-ramp because Centcom leadership told him and Hegseth to get bent when they asked for war crimes. Israel wasn't even consulted on this and just issued new evacuation orders for more of southern Lebanon. Nothing has changed apart from walking back Trump's dumb statement. Oil is just as hard to come by as it was. Helium and LNG still aren't moving. Fertilizer is still stuck. And the entire world have been missing Ukraine absolutely fucking wrecking Russia's oil and gas sector... but sure.. oil should drop 20% and the market moon, even thought literally nothing is better than it was on Saturday.

unpaid-astroturfer

LNG production down Oil production down Fertilizer prices up Yup, its calls