LNG

75w90

Im playing with USO, BNO, and etfs like XLE, FENY, and also doing some LNG and plays associated with lng etfs

75w90

Im playing with USO, BNO, and etfs like XLE, FENY, and also doing some LNG and plays associated with lng etfs

caliwillbemine

And all the oil and LNG infrastructure gets magically rebuilt overnight and Iran is a peaceful nation with zero grudges.

wh0wants2kn0w

Can LNG be shipped through a pipeline across a hot desert?

Not_Campo2

Iran has been very consistent in their messaging. Outside of the first few days of the war, when the leadership was wiped out and the generals were retaliating without direction, we have since seen incredibly direct tit for tat strikes. Their LNG facilities were hit, they hit Qatar’s. Their desalination facilities were hit and they struck Kuwait’s. When Israel hit their nuclear power plant, they hit the workers of Israel’s. When the US reduced strikes on energy infrastructure but Israel kept it up, they focused on retaliating specifically in Israeli infrastructure and hit their refinery and chemicals plant. There are dozens of these examples, it can be argued Iran is holding back quite a bit. You can certainly be skeptical of Iran’s words, but they’re playing the diplomacy to a T, unlike Trump who still can’t decide if the US has already won, or if he needs to nuke Iran

Omgbrainerror

17% of total Qatar LNG capacity was destroy, which will take YEARS to build up again. If tomorrow there would be peace deal, the fallout will follow us for years.

THedman07

Even if stopping shipping in the waterway where 20% of the world oil transits was their only weapon,... its a pretty significant weapon. They don't have to destroy oil that's going to the US to do damage to the US politically. If Iran is so overmatched, why isn't the Strait open? 20MBBL of oi per day and a bunch of LNG are still penned in and the supply chain effects that will result from this are getting worse and worse every single day. They got the US to kill sanctions on their oil and the oil of one of their allies. They've effectively gotten the US to acknowledge their control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran very well may end up getting billions of dollars a year in revenue from their tolls with the blessing of the US. They got the US to transition from "regime change and freedom for Iranians" to "no regime change and Iran controls the Strait" as their stated goal.

lostsailorlivefree

The “market” is learning dangerous lessons. Tariffs and huge disruptions to global trade doesn’t matter. Attacking other countries and decapitation strikes don’t matter. Huge disruptions to supply lines with something as vital as oil, LNG and fertilizer DOESN’T MATTER. Private credit on the rocks doesn’t matter. Capricious and illogical leadership and military decisions doesn’t matter. This tells us we have a wired system…

DarkR124

100% agree. War could end tomorrow and there will still be several months of ripple effects (refinery/LNG damage, tens of millions of barrels taken off the market so far, uncertainty around Strait security/operations, and huge disruption in logistics and supply chains). I’m a brokey tho so I threw what little I have liquid right now, $5kish, at puts a month out.

BeginningEar8070

"Fortunately this isn’t happening in the dead of winter," i just read that EU refils LNG for winter april novemeber- the supply will not restart immediately after "peace" if it happened during winter the refills would already be completed?" >storage goes from \~22% now to ideally 90%+ before November 1. March is the **second worst possible timing** for Europe's energy situation — only October would be worse.

narowi

So you're saying my fertilizer and LNG will come back?

tourettes257

Qatar supplies 1/3 of world's helium. Iran has blown up approx 20% of Qatars LNG capacity (LNG = helium effectively, in this case) So, Iran has blown up 6.66% (repeating, of course) of the worlds helium supply. The conflict is still escalating. It will take at least 5 years to repair that infrastructure. Those supply chains are basically changed forever. The U.S. will need a domestic strategic helium supply in the medium to long term.

Soggy_Ad_3662

A week ago they tried to convince Europe to buy LNG from them instead, yeah drop dead

DenRen87

What would happen if the rest of the world took Iran up on trading oil, fertilizer, LNG, etc with the yuan?

Captain_Futile

And helium from the LNG pumping. Needed for semiconductors, so computer components get even more expensive.

Low_Imagination8685

This is precisely to secure the petro dollar. American LNG is doubling over the next few years. They wont have any choice but to settle in dollars. Trump doesn't need to take Iran he simply needs to destabilize it to the point oil coming out of there is a risk. The gulf countries got cute so America used the banks to initiate green energy horseshit crippling Europes self reliance , left Russia with no choice but to invade Ukraine, snatched Venezuela, and destabilized the straight. Its really that simple.

DiceKnight

It's just rough napkin math but the point is that the idea doesn't work on multiple angles. You need tons of panels to power the facility, you need tons of space to to install the panels. Nobody was budgeting for that before the war broke out. If they knew ahead of time they wouldn't have bothered to build the facilities in the first place because the cost of the infra is too high. Associated logistical costs also mean delays. It's a dead end conceptually full stop. Could they pay higher prices for LNG or higher prices to purchase power off the grid? Yes of course but at some point people would like a profit and the debts have to be repaid. People talking about installing the panels across the nation to generate the power for one building are acting like this is a 4x game where you can dedicate an entire planets resources to one thing and ignore issues like distances or power transmission infrastructure.

Hairy_Muff305

Bought a load down around $7 when it was really oversold. The discount was because of legal actions that are disappearing progressively. Has been very volatile so lucrative to sell options on, and the damage to Middle Eastern LNG production facilities should make this a strong market for a while.

Pugsly007

There are factories in Vietnam and Thailand shutting down because of no LNG. It will take months to get the supply lines running again much less getting energy to these countries again. That will affect all of us. This is just the beginning.?

Personal_Repair_3579

Checked out VG out of curiosity in a tool - the margins are genuinely strong (66% gross vs \~36% peer median), so the core LNG business isn't the problem. The concern is the balance sheet. $25.7B net debt, and they're returning cash to shareholders faster than they're generating it. For a company still in heavy build-out mode, that's a lot of leverage to be carrying. If the LNG thesis plays out over 3-5 years, the infrastructure should start earning. But right now you're holding a lot of debt and waiting.

creemeeseason

Sold the last of my April Hormuz hedges (BP), getting closer to expiration and downside risk is rising there. Still have May LYB calls, which I think is cheap regardless of the strait status. Might grab June ADM or LNG if they sell off some.

ub3rm3nsch

And that will happen overnight and when Donald Trump wants the Iranians to open it? We are in Day 32 of 10mm BPD disrupted. 320,000,000 that haven't flowed. We are looking at a minimum of 2 weeks more until US withdrawal, and then another 2-4 weeks to open Hormuz. 640,000,000 barrels of oil minimum that didn't hit the market. Not to mention the destroyed infrastructure for not only oil, but LNG. And somehow the market thinks we are going to go back to business as usual?

jrex035

Objectively speaking, the market has not priced in the energy supply shock. 11m bpd of production is shut down right now in the Gulf. An unknown amount of that is damaged/destroyed too. Even if full pre-war traffic returned to the Gulf tomorrow, it would take months to clear out the traffic jam of ships which would need to rush to ports to offload their cargo (which will be its own bottleneck) before rushing back to Gulf ports and loading up oil (another bottleneck) before most of the Gulf States would even be able to restart any perfection. Returning production to pre-war levels won't happen until 2027 at the absolute earliest. We've already lost over 200m barrels of oil that would've been produced if the war never happened, which will jump to over 600m if the Strait remains closed another month. That's the worst oil shock in history, by far, and the price of oil is still well below even recent highs. And again, this is all just oil. The disruptions to LNG, aluminum, fertilizer, suplhur, and helium are their own mini crises that aren't priced in yet either

welpWW3isgonnasuck

Its not just oil. Its bromine, boron, phosphorus, etc on top of LNG thats needed to manufacture the chips that are necessary for AI products.

zachtothafuture

This is comment! 30% of the world's helium comes from the strait of Hormuz. It is needed for silicone cooling when making semiconductor chips. All the hardware chip makers about to take a significant cut. Nobody forecasted making up to 30%+ less chips. Also Taiwan has about a 17 day supply of natural gas which is needed to keep the TMSC plant functioning. Taiwan got about 35% of their LNG from that strait as well. They could run into power rationing on the island as well only cutting production further.

Demiu

Energy is a global market. Enless US stops it's own exports the US LNG buyers need to compete with the world's. And even if US stops exports A) it will still get through and B) US producers will just restrict supply until local US price matches the global one.

beyondplutola

US LNG export capacity is limited. It’s also difficult and increases the price several times at is destination. These constraints mean LNG is essentially priced locally in the US. It’s a very different model than oil.

naturalinfidel

I just read Australia had a cyclone hit LNG export facilities. Supposed to be down for several weeks. Accounts for 2.4% of global trade.

PalantirImperator

Natural Gas is not based on a global market, at least not in the way you are implying it is. The spot price is largely global (although we're seeing decoupling between US and the rest of the world in energy right now), but almost all LNG projects lock in long term supply agreements for 20+ year offtake at a fixed price. Obviously what goes on in Qatar will result in Force Majeure for any of that supply, and they will have issues, but for example if a US company is buying LNG to power their data centers, they aren't going out into the spot market, they're probably getting it from Louisiana and probably on a 20 year agreement, that's unlikely to be meaningfully impacted by strikes on an LNG facility in Qatar.

PalantirImperator

This war isn't going to have the catastrophic impact on LNG prices that a lot of people think it is. Most of my clients are major LNG players and NOCs, and prior to this war it was anticipated that the second half of this decade would lead to a huge glut of LNG due to many investments that have been in development for years coming online. The Iran War has effectively canceled that for the time being, and definitely has turned it into a shortage, but the fact is that the anticipated oversupply everyone was expected means the shortage now won't be as severe if it would've been had the same thing happened even just 2 years ago.

CantaloupeSea48

Sure it is. The Asians pay more we send. How did we all of a sudden send so much energy to Europe when the Ukraine/Russia war broke out, At the time, Asia was receiving Oil/LNG for the Middle east. Asians will make lomg term agreements with our companies. Europe will make green energy bets and lose

wombatterforlove

I am oh so ignorant about the market except to know that when the media tells you to sit tight, its lying to you and using you to keep others afloat (911 comes to mind). I pulled everything I had out of the market on the fifth day of the war and feel lucky. With the news out on LNG challenges and pivot to coal for foreign countries, does anyboy have any recommendations on investments? Seems ripe to get in for a moment.

Equivalent-Quail138

Pretty crazy that as soon as a senile old man chickens out, a foreign nation collecting a $2 million/ship toll is going to give in to the spirit of free commerce, destroyed LNG production is going to come online overnight, petroleum reserves will be refilled, fertilizer and helium will be delivered at bargain prices, everyone will return to their expensive real estate and business commitments in the gulf countries, over a million Lebanese people will return to the homes they were displaced from and we'll all hold hands and hum, laughing about how wacky this little excursion was. Silly bears.

Outside_Ice3252

oil bottomed out in december $55 a barrel. thats not enough profit for US producers. watch oil stay in the preferred region of 80 per barrel after the conflict (70-90). also, USA still increasing liquidified natural gas export capability all along the gulf coast. LNG and oil production in middle east has taken significant degradation and will take years to rebuild. plus nations will want to diversifiy imports going forward. My guess trump got paid to do this. Plus had inside knowlege to make great trades on it. he does not care about his legacy. he cares about his billions.

RocksAndSedum

how is it irrational when they are all dependent on asian manufacturing which is EXTREMELY dependent on Middle East oil, LNG and helium (chips).

wheniaminspaced

A long Iran wars biggest hit is the price of diesel fuel.  You worried about LNG for power generation, but there are lots of alternatives.  There is no alternative for diesel fuel which moves good worldwide and there is no serious amount of electric large trucks on the road anywhere. The US is also in general relatively insulated from LNG price spikes because it is in part based on local capacity to export and the US has lots of gas around but not alot of spare export capacity.

ChaseballBat

If the world had 100 LNG, now it only has 83 LNG, but the same demand as 100 LNG, what happens to the price of LNG on a global market? Why is gasoline prices going up in the US, if US refines enough oil for our own country?

dopef123

You can't lock in energy costs for a year. No one would agree to that unless they have some fixed cost energy. Hydroelectric, nuclear or solar. If it's based on LNG no way.

FFElite93

The US imports LNG?

FFElite93

The US gets LNG from Qatar?

raj6126

They only have about 15 days of LNG on land. Taiwan is an island. They rely on imports. This is shaping up to belie a nightmare. China won’t need to invade. They have resources.

existing-entity

Oil and LNG infrastructure in the Middle East is destroyed by literal rockets what TACO r u talking about

OHSLD

I commented on that post as well but another hole in his link chain is the natural gas impact. Go take a look at forward nat gas prices. This summer is trading at like 3.50 or something. Gas exports are constrained by limited LNG terminals so the U.S. price =\= global price for gas.

ThePapaSauce

A couple of other things - MSFT cloud is Azure, which makes its mine from all kinds of cloud compute, not just AI. And most of the helium, LNG, and Ammonia (precursor for nitric acid) needed for the production of semiconductors in Taiwan is being severely disrupted, meaning all the chips needed for the hyper-scalers will at best become a lot more expensive, and at worst be supply-choked.

ChaseballBat

.... Man wait till this guy finds out about Qatars LNG plant.

Commercial_Rule_7823

Also, energy infrastructure doesnt just reatart overnight. Some serious LNG terminals were destroyed. Were going to feel this at least the rest of 2026 and will see this hit consumer goods by summer. Travel already inflated.. I waited to buy airline tickets... guess were staying local this year kids.

MadHat0815

Okay so the last Tankers which left before the war started are arriving at ports just about now. Hormuz is roughly 20% of global oil supply, and bit more for LNG and 33% of Helium. The oil still has to be refined and trasported, so that gives us lets say 2-3 more weeks. Then we will see a real shortage/horrendous prices depending on where you live (Asia is cooked and Europe isn´t looking good either), unless strategic reseveres are taped way more. RIP gas guzzling pickup trucks, you wont be missed.

version-two

Yeah that’s my thesis. The one piece I don’t know how to factor in is, if we drawdown further market-wide, will feet and oil do so too. And how much: That goes for things like OXY, LNG, XLE, XLU, ET, etc.. not sure if I should expect them To get smacked this week or if they’ll trade sideways a bit and then rip harder.

recurrenTopology

While this will certainly make energy more expensive globally, that *may* not be the case in the US. Less then 1% of energy on the US power grid is from oil, so that rising will not have a huge impact on energy costs domestically (unlike transportation). Natural gas, on the other hand, is a huge component of the US energy mix: >40% of utility-scale power generation. The war in Iran is impacting the global supply of natural gas, however, the situation in the US is more nuanced. Exports are limited by LNG terminal and shipping capacity, and while there is an effort to bring more capacity on line, it is still very limited fraction of the total US natural gas production (<2%). At the same time, increased oil prices will also likely lead to an increase in natural gas production. Much of the potential oil shale production requires decently high oil prices to be profitable. If the high oil prices persist, it is likely that a number of wells currently sitting idle will start producing again and new wells will be drilled. Natural gas is a common byproduct of shale oil extraction, which is why natural gas has been so cheap in the US. The value of natural gas is so low relative to the oil, that there are wells were the cost of capturing and transporting the natural gas doesn't pen out, and they just burn it off. So it's entirely possible that the additional production spurred by high oil prices will end up decreasing the cost of natural gas in the US, and with it energy costs. That said, we are all just regards groping in the dark.

CarRamRob

Margins don’t tighten at $200/bbl is the problem. They evaporate. You are treating this like the $100/bbl price we see will be the worst of it. Most energy industry followers are incredulous that the 12 mmbbl/d that is currently offline isn’t having a larger impact. Most energy boom and busts in oil prices the last 50 years have been caused by 1-3 mmbbl/d oversupply or under supply issues. This has literally never happened before to have over 10% of the supply offline. Even 1973 wasn’t this bad, and it seems many investors only know tech and don’t understand what this means for such an in elastic commodity. And that’s forgetting the LNG, Aluminium, Fertilizer etc impacts as well. The fact oil isn’t $200/bbl already suggests massive market manipulation or something they all suspect that Iran is really close to making a deal. If we take Iran’s word for it though, and this lasts for months or years the economy will literally stop moving, not just have compressed margins.

OHSLD

This makes little sense. The US is a massive producer of natural gas. Far more importantly, we are both a major exporter of gas and constrained in how much we can export. This is because natural gas must be liquefied before it can be placed on a ship. LNG terminals are complex and expensive, and they take several years to build. Export capacity is something like 20 bcf per day; production is well over 100, and could plausibly increase if gas prices were slightly higher for a sustained period. The key part here is that there’s already arbitrage between gas prices in the U.S. and Europe, which means the export capacity is essentially always maxed out. Gas could go to 50 in Europe and the U.S. would still only be able to export 20bcf a day. Then there’s the part about AI paying the higher prices. I am a congestion trader in PJM and I can tell you with certainty these data centers are the least price elastic demand out there. It’s actually a problem; many factories are willing to enter into what’s called demand response, where they stop using power when prices are high and are paid as if they’re supplying power. Data centers aren’t because they’re just willing to pay 2000 a mw if that’s what it takes. They are both willing and able to pay more than essentially anyone else. There are various other reasons your post doesn’t make sense. For example, even if it were correct that higher power prices would be damning for data centers/ai, they could hedge their exposure in a number of different ways. AI is the whole fucking stock market. Tech bros spend half their day talking about how there’s not enough transmission or gen for demand 5 years from now. You think they haven’t thought about this?

Critical_Concert_689

Trump moved $1B from virgin wind farm to chad LNG power plant. Puts on EV and virgin green energy scrubs!

15X2030

I’ve been having the thought lately, how many millions of people everywhere are being affected by this war. People in iran are dying, global markets affected, LPG/LNG shortages, electronic crises in some poorer countries

Darth_Ra

Ending the war right now leaves Iran completely in charge of the Strait of Hormuz. That means: 1. **Tolls**, which means Iran is a major economic power moving forward, one that sanctions no longer work on. 2. **Control of *who* passes through the Strait**, meaning that they can now sanction the Saudi countries (or force them not to trade with another country) and/or 20% of the world's oil/LNG supply. In short, they can pick favorites, and Iran *already has* favorites.

x7_omega

Is everyone having a good time? Did you say thank you? :) https://preview.redd.it/io8zrti6f8sg1.png?width=1087&format=png&auto=webp&s=8148907bcdefb06171236cf483391c1460dfd412 As for taking Taiwan, one has to be blind to the fact that the only thing necessary for that is LNG and other cargoes not coming there any time soon.

Substantial-Use-2867

Data centers aren't run off crude oil. Most are either natural gas/going to be nuclear and renewable mixes. US import almost nothing from the middle east compared to the LNG we extract ourselves. Your entire argument is based off forcing random facts together that don't fit.

oopsallhuckleberries

The Straight of Hormuz is the choke point where 20% of the world's oil AND LNG (liquified natural gas) goes through. Half of that LNG production has been damaged/destroyed, and the most optimistic estimates doesn't have that product back to prewar levels for 5 years AFTER the war ends. Along with that, 30%-35% of the world's helium supply moves through the straight and helium is a key component in the production of semi conductors. So AI is getting hit not just from the cost of energy going up, but the cost of the production to all of the chips it needs to run.

Shady_Merchant1

I wonder where we get a lot of LNG

Tirikemen

Not really. Now that Iran knows it can effectively close the strait, it will continue to "exercise sovereignty" over it (read: extort ships for safe passage) given the chance. Beyond that, the amount of damage done to energy infrastructure will take at least months to repair and get back online. Qatar's damaged LNG trains at Ras Lafaan three to five years. Aluminum and fertilizer is also fucked.

CarRamRob

OP is asking the wrong question. Many times markets can ignore a war after it stabilizes. What OP should be asking is if the stock market can ignore 12mmbbl/d oil and 20% of LNG (among other critical fertilizers, aluminium, helium, etc) being offline as well as I’m sure their AI prompt will struggle with that since it’s never occurred before.

PsychologicalWin5775

I definitely sound like a broken record on this thread, but Russia is a big producer for oil, fertilizer, aluminum, petrochemicals, and LNG. The Iran-Russia alliance is paying dividends for them.

FemboyProfessional

“Yes, history shows that financial markets can, and often do, stop "caring" about an ongoing war, particularly if the conflict remains geographically contained and does not severely disrupt global energy supplies or corporate earnings.” Pretty sure this has destroyed global supply chains in a major way. Oil, LNG fertiliser and helium for example. Not only are these things not able to be shipped, but production has been destroyed to an extent that cannot be repaired for multiple years.

Waiting4Reccession

>Qatar-Exxon LNG Plant Marks First Production From Texas Facility So we have a foreign nation involved with and profiting from our LNG export which was already bad for Americans since it will lead to higher energy prices here. Anyway my spx condor is back to the safe zone, might close it out today though.

MonitorMost5550

LNG is still trading at 12 p/e? I know i’m stupid but what’s the best case here?

trzepet

Oil and LNG go up you need $$$ to buy those - usd up up up

randompersonx

We have limited export capacity. Natural gas exports have basically been at 100% of our capacity for a long time as we haven’t built any new LNG facilities. Oil exports can increase a bit, but it’s a drop in an ocean for us. Prices will do whatever prices will do - but other than California, there’s no risk of shortages in the continental USA. California is more complicated because they don’t have enough refining capacity and import 20% of their refined products like gasoline and diesel from Asia.

Potential_Vehicle535

This is why I like $RBNE. They have 2 first class LNG tankers and India is desperate for LNG at any cost since their ENTIRE domestic economy of a Billion+ folks runs on distributed LNG cylinders. Holding RBNE until the Iranian regime falls!

Potential_Vehicle535

$RBNE. I like them because have 2 first class LNG tankers and India is desperate for LNG at any cost since their ENTIRE domestic economy of a Billion+ folks runs on distributed LNG cylinders. Holding RBNE until the Iranian regime falls!

Blacksin01

Absolutely. Most of it is buried under ground but they can hit the pumping stations or the loading docks. Also doesn’t help the LNG shortage.

Potential_Vehicle535

That's why I like $RBNE. They have 2 first class LNG tankers and India is desperate for LNG at any cost since their ENTIRE domestic economy of a Billion+ folks runs on distributed LNG cylinders. Holding RBNE until the Iranian regime falls!

Acrophobic_Pilot

Oil staying high but LNG mysteriously dumping

New_Bad_8760

worlds biggest economy, largest LNG exporter, self-sustaining supply of oil. the rest of the world might want to reconsider sitting out Irans Hormuz blockage. just a thought

ga643953

On good days, they were priced as an energy company. But the next day, the market would completely rerate them as a bank if they just tore down their newly built oil rig. Only a day later, they'd get rerated once more like they've built more LNG infrastructure to profit from the current energy crisis. The market is never wrong, so it must be Sofi's doing. Why can't Anthony Noto make up his mind about their business model?

Important-Agent2584

Yea, a lot were LNG and fertilizer, which are bottle-necked even worse.

Hamzehaq7

bro, I feel you. been holding some of those too and it's like watching paint dry at times lol. the war and all the supply chain chaos really hit hard, especially with oil and LNG. DUKH is not really moving like we hoped, but I still believe in the fundamentals. gotta hold on tight and hope for a bounce back, right? what's your plan if they keep dragging?

freshsourdougheh

Don’t forget about price ⬆️ for helium, fertilizer, LNG, and obvs petroleum and it’s by products. Poor countries r going to get obliterated in a food crisis due to all the fertilizer being held up in Hormuz rn, got about a month to go before they miss planting season & rich countries will corner the market

JohnSpartan2025

I think simply risk analysis. Oil should be 150-200 right now, but there's a a probably 30% chance this resolves in the current state without major infrastructural damage. Oil / LNG and fertilizer supply chains are all about to start running out as the war possibly turns into a more suicidal oil infrastructural destruction phase. Shit might get real real, real quick.

dustsmoke

It's not about oil... It's about LNG. South Paars and North Dome. The largest natural gas field in the world by far. Iran and Russia want to ship it to western Europe via Iran up to Ukraine and via Eurostream. NATO wants so send it via Saudi Arabian through Syria up to Turkey. The development of this field has been planned and happening since the 1990s. You may have noticed some county names in there...

13jfncjai31

Yeah I got in on ANNA at like 3.80 so I’m letting it ride its house money for me. Wish I put more in I think it’s quite strong, Europe needs LNG and that’s just a fact. As this goes on (it will) and things get more desperate i think it’ll become less about what sort of debt baggage or prospects a company has and more about whether they are producing right now and if not how soon. ANNA is a short term play, I ain’t betting the house but I think it’s got strong fundamentals, I wouldn’t buy in at today’s price point though

Torgud_

No, it will take a minimum of a year. It takes 4-6 weeks just to spin up rigs that are idled to reach full capacity. Infrastructure that was destroyed takes much longer to fix. For example the Qatar LNG facility that was hit, the quotes on that are 20 billion in damages and 4-5 years to fix.

CantaloupeSea48

This. Wait until we send our LNG and excess oil to Asia because they are fair weather friends

Babyfat101

For companies like CF, UAN, farmers recently bought for spring planting, pre war but $ were up. So, Q1 and Q2 will be a little better than last year. Some but not all has been sold for fall planting, so Q3 should be up nicely and Q4 and next year at least, should be VERY nice. It’s too uncertain to speculate how far out this will go, but Qatar has said it’ll take 3-5 years to get their LNG plant back up. ?? Re how long the Middle East plants will be out.

Infamous-Ad-8215

Wow you made 20% on a call in the best macro environment in LNG’s history that will push LNG stocks another 30-40%

jpric155

Look it up. Most of the LNG plays go by the price at Henry Hub (currently $2.50 – $3.50 per MMBtu). Since America is a net exporter of LNG the price here is low and will stay low. Meanwhile VET is able to sell to Europe because it produces LNG there where the price is $12.00 – $18.00 per MMBtu and rising. They're basically making 2-3x more money than they were a few months ago. New PT is in the ~$24 range.

jpric155

VET. Seems like one of the only LNG plays that is not locked to the US market.

jpric155

Damn. Hoping my LNG play doesn't absolutely blast off before I can get in on monday.

_Doomer_Wojack_

Iran just hit a water desalination plant in Kuwait. They went from military targets to oil infrastructure to refineries to LNG to airports to now drinking water in a desert country. But yeah this will be over soon.

AdditionalActuator81

You do know chip making needs helium and LNG right?

filletnignon

The price increase would be significant, but I don't really agree that the damage is. Qatar's LNG has taken about a 15-20% hit in production and that's one of the biggest hits so far. Even if we extrapolate that to all oil moving through the strait and take the higher value, that's still 80% capacity if the strait were to open today.

hsalem050

Not a true Black Swan in the technical sense, and it's worth being precise about the distinction because it actually matters for how you think about portfolio risk. Taleb's definition requires three things: the event is a genuine surprise to nearly all observers, it has extreme impact, and it gets rationalized in hindsight as obvious. Iran clears the second criterion but not really the first. US-Israeli military action against Iran was openly war-gamed and anticipated by analysts, oil traders, and the intelligence community for years. Energy desks at major banks had contingency models built around Strait of Hormuz disruption scenarios. When a risk is that extensively stress-tested in advance, it does not meet the surprise threshold that defines a true Black Swan. A better label is "gray rhino," a term coined by Michele Wucker for large, obvious risks that people acknowledge but hope will stay in their corner. The risk was always visible. What changed was that it stopped being theoretical. Compare that to your 2008 example, which is a much cleaner Black Swan. The systemic fragility baked into mortgage-backed securities, the leverage sitting on bank balance sheets, and the degree to which the entire financial system was interconnected through instruments almost nobody fully understood was genuinely opaque to most sophisticated market participants until the collapse was already underway. Even most of the people building those products did not grasp the full exposure. That is what real systemic surprise looks like. The 1979 energy crisis is actually the closest historical parallel to what is happening now, not 2008. Both involve a major Middle Eastern disruption to oil supply, both feed directly into inflation and central bank dilemmas, and both hit an economy that was already dealing with elevated prices and policy uncertainty. The transmission mechanism is familiar: oil shock leads to higher gas prices, feeds into headline inflation, complicates Fed decisions, and slows consumer spending. That is not a surprise, it is a known playbook running in real time. The Strait of Hormuz is the critical variable to watch. Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG passes through it, and even a partial functional impairment drives outsized price moves because markets price in worst-case scenarios. Brent surged toward $120 a barrel in the early weeks of the conflict. European and Asian natural gas prices jumped over 50% in the first week alone after QatarEnergy declared force majeure. These are large numbers, but they are large in a way that energy analysts had modeled and expected if this scenario materialized. For a newer investor, here is the practical takeaway. Geopolitical events feel catastrophic in the moment but almost never crater long-term equity returns the way the news cycle suggests they will. Markets recovered after 1973, after 1979, after the Gulf War, after 9/11, after every prior Middle East escalation. The question is never really whether markets survive the initial shock, they always do. The question is whether the shock triggers a secondary effect that does lasting damage, specifically a Fed policy error where they overtighten into a slowing economy, a sustained inflationary spiral that erodes consumer spending, or some hidden financial contagion that nobody has mapped yet.

GerryManDarling

The percentage sounds a bit high, but even with a lower number, it's still bad. Oil production can bounce back relatively quickly. Some wells can restart in weeks, others might take months. But refineries are a different story. Those take years to rebuild. LNG facilities are the same, usually four to five years to recover. So even if world peace broke out tomorrow, the damage is already done.

SameCategory546

I can tell you right now that we are more dependent on fertilizers, LNG and helium than ever. Did you know you need extremely pure helium for semiconductors and that it cannot be stored in meaningful quantities? Look at the numbers instead of pulling opinions out. Oil doesn’t even matter half as much in this scenario, though if you look at the spread between Oman and Brent, you can see where things are headed. It just takes time bc there is always floating storage and oil in transit

SameCategory546

how many times have we shut in this much of the world’s production? How dependent were we on LNG and nitrogen fertilizers and helium back then?Asia is already scrambling for supplies. It’s already crisis levels in many places besides the US.

artisanrox

The resources are already not there anymore. Fertilizer, LNG, oil. they're gone. done. So, down, but how much? IMHO it'll crawl down as everyone caaaaarefully figures out how much to dump so 47 doesn't yell at them that the market is going down too fast. Everyone else thinks it's part of the pump n dump, until one day the music just STOPS at the Market frat party, and finds the DJ dead.

jentle-music

Ok…so a cultural moment: Iran has cels here and abroad and strong skills in cyber warfare that can hack anything. They have asymmetric methods that can target our water, hospitals, power grid, and even financial institutions now that we are all globally dependent on internet and computers. The Iranian Resilience Cyber Axis is fully capable of effing us up. Iran also has surrogate and proxies in the US, capable of assassinations, and infrastructure attacks by hand, with individuals. Right now, Iran has control of its own Strait of Hormuz and the US is feeling the shock of extreme gas and LNG prices, that is happening to our economy (and the economies of whatever allies we have left) because it’s a global issue now. In terms of bombing our cities, Iran doesn’t have to create a weapon that flies from Iran…people are already here to do this job. I’m stunned that America don’t have a clue as to how vulnerable we really are. The Iranian regime, along with Houthi and Hezbollah, IRC, IRI, HAN, Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad are capable and primed to target American people here in the US.

RayU_AZ

If a legit peace deal is announced soon, how big do you think the rally would be? **If history is any guide, then,** * 4/9/2025, Trumps Tariffs +9.5% * 3/24/2020 (COVID) +9.4% * 10/28/2008 +10.8% * 10/13/2008 +11.6% * 10/21/87 +9.10 The average big one day SP500 rallys is about 10.1%. The SPY has fallen from $693 on 2/26 to $634 on 3/27, a 1 month drop of 8.5%. If the news is the Hormuz strait is open for oil tankers and Iraq agrees to US terms, **Then I could see a stock market rally get half of the March month drop back in a single day, maybe between 4% to 6% pop. This would be a 2200 points gain on the DOW and 1000 points gain on the Nasdaq.** But if US troops invading Iran territory to open up the Hormuz strait and suffering US troop losses, this could cause a market downturn. The US oil situation is not that bad, as the US is a exporter of oil & LNG ( liquified natural gas). Mostly all of the oil going thru the Hormuz strait goes to China, Korea and India and not the US states. The inflation resulting from the recent oil crisis would need to work its way thru the economy. Inflation concern will most likely prevent the Federal reserve from cutting interest rates to simulate the economy.

MatterFickle3184

Stop loss on oil is irrelevant. Administration can try to manipulate the markets as much as they want especially when they strategically drop news after hours and on weekends. But fact of the matter is oil, LNG and fertilizer will keep on trucking to ATH in couple months. There's not a damned thing that can stop it. Even if Iran agreed to ceasefire and let all ships thru starting today.

oatmealparty

I didn't misunderstand anything, this entire comment chain is only talking about oil, none of the parent comments mentioned LNG.

PleasantAnomaly

You misunderstood what i said. I was never talking about oil. Only LNG. Replying to the comment above that the LNG Infrastructure will take 2-3 years to rebuild. I wasn't being rude. I dislike lazy people who can't look up the source when it's one Google search away.

1M-to-Zero

Note that oil price increases is good for USA. When the world burns, USA is isolated because USA is energy self sufficient (LNG and gas). But this war started by USA/Israel, is not going in a direction that USA is hoping for. Iran (aided by China and Russia) goes after USD supremacy.