NG

MarketingOpening3933

diversify. is best advice. i look for places that are good hedge against inflation. ie BA. or NG. but do not get involved in penny shares. unless you are prepared to lose the lot.

bluen

This frog has massive back abs https://www.reddit.com/r/maybemaybemaybe/s/NG41MfgzU3

MNrook

NG!!!

ModeForJoe

NG does not require refining... there are no natural gas refineries.

MNrook

Anyone else watching NG?

thegrudge101

How do? Lockheed and NG have space product lines that are bigger than most space businesses full stop. You can’t dismiss that lol

Sky_Tube

If all you‘re looking at is launch then ok. Talk again when they manage to scale it properly, NG is flying as much as Neutron right now, while Electron literally is getting a fourth Launch pad because of the huge demand (different classes but point about execution still stands) And I am quite comfortable with my 7$ buy in, thank you. Profitability in '27 will taste good, the market will get it sooner or later But keep talking bs about an industry you clearly don‘t understand, basing everything on launch when that only enables the real TAM… but bigger rocket = better, am I right?

GrecianDesertUrn69

mans on NG+

Moist-Guava-732

start buying gold miners GDXU GFI ORLA NG SA KGC

Locke_____Lamora

Cash. Gang. $G4NG

Ok-Entrepreneur-8195

Warsh crashing the market on the shittiest argument i've seen [](https://alb.reddit.com/cr?za=VRwnsuVgYq4F8kGEVGN1nYusm6zOcG51Py-QTClrfdSTnyuvEOjDpSYskCLVAExp-n5xlizObBXLCmaM5Mc9nQSjAxp-bb1GKHsR63pXcmDcJlJvv5CQkunA7ia6I3M7ppk-DGEzuTkFMiNcbVqXskTj6pQiyoHHXtL7WfkZtae2rINtHojX0sibRgUKkmtuWOY62-ze7xFwy0sZGPGB7sLvndhJuUm-x2j1YalpNQQpr01Gq-9HfYmJ3IbkSarJjkOU2R1wwA0ETzX18OBJtXJWFcyhOLrgHVk1wGAgocBjzMBONRI7Nq8UuEZPamDzgXRp3Iesn3T6AJo8T42HfYG4Uah4t7eF9T-CoE5SkAmymVdO61Cfq4pEeyL24y1_7DxNXb0DlyzdNLyHIaWnDC_HA3N5WA6B-4mtk-i-pHTQlu-6mc7l37XH60eLNjVZtRJQBDsLXVDaK1yov_PU3aXp_asFiXa1CkOFvSD8TdiILwUO8OMqm-FhMuM3AC-XtriijmefkO1z3iDTEL9EzfY89VBxfGu73wU4glo6YNL_Y0_wEgD-OvPv2OhMvNe8vxnir_1qItzZD-RnhOBBTpv1SIDuaFg3J2gAwMoo2_RdIWB6GsRLXYQvd33agF2NPJwfUvxZgzhpUNWIQTjDO0bdeXFpz3SV2Mgd90h_GWW2keKq2BiPThBUASYdhe6f1-0UG1sWHTW2ScvmhByMgr5C9-pvClYtJrF2ToDgq1pOQUComeVgj04ubAYsa5nri9KrUH13IYFBCPLxPvf5Wmwy5rq_wpIAx2JBmdYqrcb0nB2KAZJWGQini-Rh8EUGvAzA2_5JRx3AxzUrLCKujN8N94F3bDi32SBmzhXRL0zKeSSKeQNWszPnhScU_Qrfu5H9ynvpQLGfSlA4pcpiQPJDUhlePf4dL0AlCBi6Dmchd-rm1z4e6U-EVSwiVpNgI851Ej7xqibTu2JSrQR_lyVT3j4JhPf5zwB4WSg4OSctOHUFBXOVBK0&zp=Jicb2gbWjcjUdLOTVFv7OZN5-mGniemL4uK2zI_2CBiw36Vs-1k1dbTTqa2qvfx70rPvJsGsRgkvkV586Gm_ulKKZKzSMN_dZuiPU8KiilQHHyFvsv8hIpXcRimezl14buQinvNzPK2ebEbhe6mOmLo6sa-3B9vBbgtdEQ-x0MZ7OCr2O3DbFnTy8td3RKa0CGCzj-iK4_2mljdlxyAgEKQqWvViJM7ZEgcdMXN_AOhKxn6kn9SiR8eV9CAVH0IG3kyQdOqtLDKD2NT65j7I2G8qbo8XsDJLcWFPE-eCkbxbwkDMdhH7wboH2gZ7_-Yg4S_-Mbl7sNrLVrKzIF2nCgplwjmG45NG&a=29893&b=26405&be=26332&c=1607&d=22852&e=21885&ea=21896&eb=21862&f=1220&r=6&g=1&i=1784133631961&t=1784133944640&o=1&q=1&h=204&w=732&sh=1080&sw=1920&va=1&vb=0&vc=0&vd=0&ve=0&vg=0&vh=0&vi=0&vs=0&vt=0&vu=0&vv=0&vx=0&vw=0&vq=0&vr=0&vy=0&xe=0&vz=0&xa=0&xf=0&xb=0&vf=0&xc=0)

KeythKatz

> small and crowded corner A market they invented, lead, and are still the only company to have the appropriate technology and spectrum to take advantage of. They'll be the only player when the constellation builds out sufficiently for public service next year, and for a long time to come. RKLB's non-launch acquisitions are meaningless unless they can get Neutron to stop following the footsteps of BO NG (unlikely given the glacial pace of development), and also get customer orders for constellations after that. Likely at least 3 years out before we see investments start to pay off. I subscribe to the subreddits of both subs. RKLB runs on sentiment, hopium, groupthink, and unrealistic timelines. Half of them don't know anything besides "stock price go up". ASTS discussions are factual, fundamental, and users are more pessimistic on timelines. There isn't the same meme stock vibe. That said, I bought both during the dip, but I'd be much happier with RKLB under $50 while ASTS is a steal anywhere below $100.

karmalizing

Crazy how much easier it is to transfer data compared to NG

wrestlingchampo

Ive been clamoring for more people to take note of this elsewhere and buy CLNE, but whenever I posted this in WSB, it would get pulled because its market cap is too small. Even though its the only NG company (RNG, no less) that isn't Chevron that has a major CNG/LNG distribution network, which is going to get interesting as more and more trucks convert to CNG. Batteries can do short trips, but you need something more substantial if you're transporting cross-country.

mohelgamal

That is exactly the problem, building data centers on the ground is mind bogglingly expensive, and the operating costs are just bonkers Take for example Microsoft/open Ai build out in west Texas (stargate/ Kilby) For a total of 2.7 gigawatt of compute, They are expecting something like 8-12 billion in building and land costs, 2-4 internal infrastructure for HVAC, another 8-10 billion for gas turbines to provide electricity, and 1-2 billion in additional in power lines, water pipes and whatever else to interconnect with the local grid. Then you would have the running costs of facility management, security, and the gas required that comes at fluctuating costs that depend on which middle eastern despot is misbehaving at the time. But just the starting cost is a minimum of $16-25 before you account for the chips themselves and excluding any cost over runs that tends to plague these projects On the other hand, using the 120kw per 2ton satellite, you would need 450 starship launches to deploy 2700 satellites to match the same capacity. Each launch is predict to cost $10 million on reusable ships so $4.5 billion in launch costs, and if the manufacture the satellites at $500k a pop (excluding chips) then you are around the same cost without having to worry about ongoing NG fuel costs and property taxes and what not

No_Aerie_2717

You understand VG benefits from these NG spot spreads? Henry Hub vs TTF and Henry Hub vs JKM

divine-nothingness

I like VG a lot but nervous about it's performance being so closely tied to the European NG price.

FattyLivermore

I did not know that - when you say "energy" I think oil and natural gas, and when I think NG i think of Amaranth Advisors, lol. Pretty interesting. Sorry to lead you off on a tangent, fun topic though.

MeowTheMixer

NG is easier to deploy, but is constrained. Maybe small turbines are easier to get? But the top suppliers of turbines are sold out for several years.

mjmdiver

My great grandfather and grandfather were coal miners south of Pittsburgh and my father a mining engineer (the first in the family to go to college)… the lived in a company town down there. Coal jobs in the US have been declining since about 1920. There is no such thing as “recovery” for the industry because it is barely going to offer any jobs even if they suddenly increase consumption, which isn’t going to happen anyway, since NG is far easier to deploy for small power needs.

illiterateninja

How are they going to provide "clean" power? They're currently running large amounts of NG generators.

Equivalent-Rip-1478

https://youtu.be/6WEnn81NG-Y?si=PAywjw5LNySwX8eN

spicykimchi_inmybutt

Blue Origin NG was the main workhorse for delivering the target Sats this year. NASA just released a statement that they may not be ready to launch again until 2028. Yes, AST BBs are launcher agnostic and they’ve signed multiple partnerships, but that doesn’t really help if launches are all booked until mid next year. They released a statement saying that the next few launches aren’t impacted since they’re not with BO, but most folks already knew that, the problem is the last few bulk launches that needed to go with NG is no longer an option

BigMisterLawyerDude

This actually makes a lot of sense. Do you have any positions in NG yet?

Tricky-Ad-6225

Medium lift will definitely not be saturated. Even if Neutron, F9, NG, and Eclipse are launching, there are plenty of business to go around. Everyone and their mother is launching shit into space.

Prestigious_Sell9516

Crowdstrike don't make enterprise firewalls they make EPP and related software - PA is one of the trusted names but who doesn't have a NG FW now ? More novel zero trust and agent based proxy tools (particularly for cloud first environments plus the decent firewall services on azure and AWS) not sure the future is that bright for PA. Nothing else they do is that useful (their VPN tool keeps getting hit by vulns see Fortinet who had a terrible time with incessant vulns appearing PAs global protect seems to be going the same way).

Thevsamovies

Fly is less than 10% of RKLB's market cap. They are smaller, and their launch is way less proven, but the market is pricing both things. If fly executes well, this company runs up hard. They've already demonstrated the ability to land on the moon, and the ability to launch a rocket in 24 hours. They are no joke. I have a hard time believing a company with massive, highly credible partnerships including NG is gonna fail.

3boobsarenice

here is a before > [https://assets.science.nasa.gov/dynamicimage/assets/science/missions/escapade/ESCAPADE-NG2-On-Pad-5.jpg?w=2500&h=1667&fit=clip&crop=faces%2Cfocalpoint](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/dynamicimage/assets/science/missions/escapade/ESCAPADE-NG2-On-Pad-5.jpg?w=2500&h=1667&fit=clip&crop=faces%2Cfocalpoint)

Elbeske

The BO explosion is massive for ASTS. And I say that as a long shareholder. The NG LV was key to the launch strategy and BO has demonstrated they cannot be trusted as a launch provider. Sold 400 shares in overnight trading after hearing the news

Marko-2091

I would say the space industry (ASTS, RKLB, etc). Many are shitting on SpaceX but after NG's failure, their MOAT is untouchable. 3T MCap

KeythKatz

The fuckers static fired NG-3 WITH BB-7 onboard. Remembering AMOS-6, it was only a matter of time before this happened. I'm more surprised they didn't blow up a few sats with this failure.

BiggieMoe01

Pretty sure the payload is set ahead of the static fire - it was the case with AST’s BB7 satellite on NG3. NG4’s payload is gone.

Whooshless

> Blue Origin had successfully completed its third New Glenn mission (NG-3) in mid-April, launching an AST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellite The absolute gall to frame that mission as a success. A booster failed and they couldn't compensate with the others, so they put the satellite into a uselessly low orbit and called it a day.

Grymninja

"Blue Origin's massive New Glenn rocket suffered an explosion at Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. The incident occurred during an engine "hotfire test" for an upcoming mission carrying 48 Amazon Leo broadband satellites. No target launch date for the next mission (NG-4) had been publicly announced prior to the incident.Prior to this incident, Blue Origin had successfully completed its third New Glenn mission (NG-3) in mid-April, launching an AST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellite." ASTS already switched to spaceX guys. This shouldn't affect their stock price.

NoEffective4393

It's access. Which AST does not own. By definition it's not a commodity. "The market treats all instances of a commodity as essentially identical, regardless of which company or individual produced them" Are F9/NG/VC identical? 1 is grounded while the other one trashed your satellite. 

Fabulous_Pangolin751

Respect. That is some actual boomer tier WSB wealth right there, not the usual “I turned 5k into 800 bucks” posts we get 😂 Missing the AI giga pump hurts but with 3.5m you’ve already won the game, now you’re just playing NG+ difficulty. MRLN and IMSR are some spicy tickets for a dude already that stacked, love the 10x or 0 mentality when your floor is “still retired by 55.”

Sick0h

They’re transitioning quickly for sure, but they still use primarily coal/oil/NG.

Parking_Reputation17

Carney is a liberal but he's also a pragmatist. Given the price of oil and NG right now, Canada is in a great position to take advantage of that. Canada has the world's 3rd largest petroleum reserves.

wrestlingchampo

Biggest issue has been a low adoption of NG engines for trucks, which I think a lot of trucking companies are reconsidering as diesel remains elevated

Parking_Reputation17

Agreed. Energy demand is roughly growing at 1% per year and has been growing at that rate for a while. People will scream "but muh AI data centers!" and won't realize that those are constrained not by energy but by chips. Permian drillers still have to *pay* to get NG taken off their hands.

Lone_Logan

I know there is some trauma and haste towards the company, but I think a pivot is something that should be impressive more than concerning. Many companies don’t have the self awareness to know a path isn’t sustainable. And I honestly think the retrofit hybrid axel still has a place in the market, but the reality is we became the number one oil producer while also having dramatic political shifts as a nation. Even the natural gas truck could provide a different energy mix to trucking which is wonderful for diversifying energy dependence, which would be great for the US as a top NG producer, but other nations especially who are more sensitive to energy disruption. They saw the writing on the wall and put that on the back burner even though it’s a great concept. They can always go back to one or both. The market now is looking for energy mix at the grid level. Some companies are booming with concepts of micro nuclear reactors, but that is a long ways out with demand being more immediate. This is something that can serve as a transition, and also fill a slot for companies who aren’t going to expend capital for a small nuclear plant.

CHL9

Any insight into whether any of these are european? CL GC SI NG ZB ZN 6J 6E? Or the specifics of which ES NQ RTY expiries are NOT european?

CHL9

Thank you very much for your reply, appreciate it. Do you perhaps have a specific URL or other way (I'm on ToS) to check the CME spec per contract? I have only find general information on their site. I'm trying to ascertain if ALL of the CL, GC, SI, NG, ZN/B/F, 6J \*options\* are American-style, or if there are some expirations which are in fact European-style. The only ones I've been able to ascertain with certainty are ES and NQ, which are only European on the quarterlies, and I read RTY is only European. It's counterintuitive that this is not easily found published information on CME or the brokerage or anywhere.

CHL9

Thank you very much for your reply, appreciate it. Do you perhaps have a specific URL or other way (I'm on ToS) to check the CME spec per contract? I have only find general information on their site. I'm trying to ascertain if ALL of the CL, GC, SI, NG, ZN/B/F, 6J \*options\* are American-style, or if there are some expirations which are in fact European-style. The only ones I've been able to ascertain with certainty are ES and NQ, which are only European on the quarterlies, and I read RTY is only European. It's counterintuitive that this is not easily found published information on CME or the brokerage or anywhere.

CHL9

Thank you very much for your reply, appreciate it. Do you perhaps have a specific URL or other way (I'm on ToS) to check the CME spec per contract? I have only find general information on their site. I'm trying to ascertain if ALL of the CL, GC, SI, NG, ZN/B/F, 6J \*options\* are American-style, or if there are some expirations which are in fact European-style. The only ones I've been able to ascertain with certainty are ES and NQ, which are only European on the quarterlies, and I read RTY is only European.

Perfect-Loquat-7791

Not quite true, most CME futures *options* on CL, GC, SI, NG are actually American-style (early exercise possible), while “European-style” is more common in index options like SPX/SPXW. Always check the CME spec per contract. Confusion is normal here.

Accurate_Shift_3118

In all honesty, CME documentation related to exercise style tends to be oddly inconsistent. I had to check this for myself when running derivatives workflows on Runable because certain brokers’/documentation sites’ terminology differs. As far as I recall, the majority of conventional commodity-based futures options (CL/GC/SI/NG) are American-style, whereas the exercise style of index products depends on their expiry terms.

SargeMaximus

I’m just saying it often gets a slam and 90-70 is a good range for when and if that happens. I’m holding my remains NG shares 👍

VotedOut

Basically, whenever a sell-side analyst or fund manager makes a BUY or SELL recommendation publicly on any media platform, they're recommending BUY. About 90% of them give BUY recommendation about 90% of the time. They do this especially for anything that went up a lot, no matter how absurd the valuation has gotten. Jim Cramer, Dan Ives, [most of the brokerages](https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/international/202605120853RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN3NG1FA-OUSBS_1).

pixi88

[trump is talking right now, you are welcome](https://www.youtube.com/live/IByVie2qY30?si=H-Vk9UbdthwmR3NG) $cthulhupixi

pixi88

https://www.youtube.com/live/IByVie2qY30?si=H-Vk9UbdthwmR3NG

Entity17

Aw fuck, i can't believe i'm down 5% on my 300% 1 YR gain. 

1098duc_w_the_termi

Does anybody want to start an energy trading firm? I figure we can start as a NG pipeline operator and then slowly start trading the energy between the grids and data center on prem production. We can use SPEs to finance the growth off the balance sheet too. Lmk.

AntiqueProfessor5134

Are you asking about the expense of transporting tiny \~1 inch wafers that cost hundreds of dollars apiece? Transport costs are going to be essentially 0 for that.... The electricity costs in Taiwan are a good point. TSMC still report record earnings though, so doesn't seem like it's affecting them that much, but reasonable concern. I believe natural gas costs in the US are actually at record lows... overseas may be an issue, but in the US the price is actually dropping, since NG is produced as a byproduct of making more oil.

cms86

Fuel shortage ---> NG shortage with Helium by product (medical grade) ---> fertilizer(s)-----> Famine!!!!

PositiveEdge4361

Software at a FA[A]NG

Ok-Replacement9595

I doubt many use that type of fertilizer. Most of what farmers are worried about are ammonia based fertilizers made from NG. But I'm not an expert. But most grows I assume are organic and using the compost teas from what I've seen.

Steamcurl

Discounts on a space stocks but they'll likely depress more before earnings. Pipelines are generally good but I'm still on the fence with ASTS after being burned by the NG3 launch

ModeForJoe

In the US? Our liquifying capacity is way less than production so arb opportunities are very minimal, plus a slowing economy reduces demand. NG just hit 18 month low, so probably not going high anytime soon

ChewbaccaIsBear

Better than ready NG it during market hours 

maddead

They can but they never carried that heavy before. That's is why it's risky. What part of risky decisions you don't understand. A safe decision would have let someone's launch a heavy payload with NG first. But asts is desperate. They got no time. Just because they said they can doesn't mean they can. They basically used asts as a dummy sat to test their stage 2. And guess what by the time they launch amazon sat, no problem. They used asts desperation. They failed asts and ASTS still have to go back to them.

flynryan692

Spirit just won the FAA’s Diamond Award of Excellence for aviation maintenance for the eight year in a row. The fleet is well maintained. They also do not have 737NG’s, they have an all Airbus fleet and they’re not even using CFM engines that might be somewhat similar to the 737, so I’m left to think you have no idea what you’re talking about and hate Spirit for the sake of hating Spirit.

the_Q_spice

As someone who works for a non-competing airline (we do cargo only); Spirit treats their fleet like shit. They deserve every bit of this failure, the reason they are bankrupt isn’t economic reasons outside of their control, it’s because they are genuinely a terribly run company and airline that values minimizing expenditure over things like basic safety and maintenance. Unironically, part of Spirit’s issue was they cheaped the F out on their 737NG engines, which have been nothing but massive maintenance PITAs. That aside, Spirit idiotically continues to pay higher landing fees to secure slots at competitive hubs instead of taking the Ryanair (and other budget airlines) approach of going to cheaper subsidiary airports. Spirit is a tiny ass airline trying to compete toe-to-toe with the bigs, with their *only* draw being the lowest bidder. It’s a shitty business plan that ignores the colossal capital costs of maintaining presence at major hubs like ATL, ORD, DTW, FLL, LAS, DFW, etc. They have been continuously fined over their existence for false advertising, mishandling complaints related to treatment of customers with disabilities, and suffer the highest rate of DOT complaints and violations of any airline currently operating in the US. Other airlines have offered to buy them out on *multiple* occasions (Frontier, JetBlue). Spirit *themselves* are the reason both of these fell apart. The stockholders rejected Frontier’s bid and then Spirit actively fought against JetBlue’s offer. The offers were for $33-$33.50/share - hilarious considering the company’s price was $20-22/share at the time, and dropped to $0.44 before being delisted. Their CEO is currently promising a $6.2B revenue growth *this year* - which is an absolutely insane pipe dream of a number for them.

notapersonaltrainer

>Even within google the compensation is quite top-heavy, especially when you factor in stocks. First, by changing the goalpost I take it you concede the main point. Yea, and the invention of Pagerank is also quite top-heavy. These guys went around and offered to sell the entire company for $1m. And not to randos, but actual search experts like Yahoo. They passed, viewing Google as a risky bet with little perceived upside and a high likelihood of failure. When you hold something enormously risky that no one wants and it works out, the payoff is disproportionately large. That's literally how equities work and why America has such an innovative, long tail risk taking engine. Given the state of [Gemini](https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E10AQFbBTVjRRKmpw/image-shrink_800/image-shrink_800/0/1710023941967?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=NG8mS6OHRERs-l_iJvSjAaHKWcpzJIrbcLI8NvEWJZw) during their hiatus they may even be undercompensated. The turnaround has been almost been like Jobs coming back to Apple.

superdeeduperpower

Mod Note - the title is misleading, in that the launch was only partially successful. >*"NG-3 Update: We have confirmed payload separation. AST SpaceMobile has confirmed the satellite has powered on. The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit. We are currently assessing and will update when we have more detailed information."* \~Source: [Blue Origin X Account ](https://x.com/blueorigin/status/2045860091920896043) Approving because it's related to the stock, but be aware that it wasn't a 100% success.

edyang73

The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and NG.

New--Intern

NG3 suffered and upper stage anomaly. Initial calculations put the perigee at ~160-170km with a nominal apogee. At that lower altitude the atmosphere is very soupy. Ion thruster dV may not be able to recover. You would likely need to burn for your entire orbit and still may lose altitude. You would also need to do this immediately and there may be many other steps you need to do before starting this. Their ops team is having a busy day right now. I wish them luck.  They may possibly recover, but my water is this satellite de-orbits in a few days. 

kim82352

> Blue Origin NG-3 fail : ... The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit.

gurney__halleck

I mean disrupt the NG global markets through violence so that countries increase their oil imports from you is pretty terroristic 😂

ilove702

You need to isolate that variable to make a profitable bet. More than weather impacts the price of NG you could be right on the temperature prediction and still lose money if other factors overpower the weather input.

Necromancer2k8

They will probably do a 5:1 reverse on boil. That fucker is way to low now. I did my 22 -> 40 first run in the fall and the 16 -> 40 2nd run a few months ago & I ain't touching that shit anymore. We produce so much here that losing 20% of the worlds output in Qatar caused NG prices to fall off a cliff. Hard pass on that commodity manipulation BS from now on

SlartibartfastMcGee

NG is down like 40% in the last 2 months. It’s been a total elevator to hell. Great for swing trading though.

lemurtowne

Oil and natural gas are very different commodities. We've also been in an NG/LNG surplus for a while and a lot of refineries are upping production to offset the middle east disruption.

Poptart_Salad

From what little I know about NG, it's significantly more abundant than CL and hard to transport, so it's more sensitive to local demand/supply fluctuations. And weather. From what I've looked at on the chart it seems like Spring is typically the worst season of the year for it, the strongest being the extreme seasons Summer and Winter. So yeah, I'd just wait for the inevitable weather event pop and try to get out as close to BE as I can. Personally been thinking about getting long BOIL myself but NG is weird and scary to me. But this is getting to be a 2 year low so...starting to look appealing.

DeerCum

Lol they don't call NG the widowmaker for nothing.

slick2hold

Turmps buddies are pumping the market. 20% of LNG production is offline yet NG is at record multi-year lows. How the f*ck is that happening. I'm not complaining but how the f*ck does that happen? 20% is offline and NG keeps falling.

Steamcurl

NG3 currently aiming to launch this Friday 645am EST, should be an interesting time for overnight calls

Steamcurl

Friday 645 am EST NG3 Launch, inshallah.

small_root

My move tomorrow is to uninstall my life and play my existence at NG+

SlartibartfastMcGee

Free money to short oil any time it goes over $100. I was balls deep on a NG play so I missed it this time, but holy shit. Just keep a limit sell open and profit.

JustaBearEnthusiast

I'm not sure I understand. Wouldn't the natural gas being cut off from Russia and now the gulf states drive up demand/price for American natural gas? Or is it some weird thing where they can't use it American products because it LNG vs NG or something?

WickOfDeath

The answer is quite short: The market cycle is broken. When gold falls on geopolitical events then something is completely broken here, that is a clear sign of "something new". I would stick to those things which have a clear demand / supply cycle like US nat gas or ags. We all know when Trump will (again) impose 50% tariff on China China wont buy US soybeans any more... which are BTW overpriced compared with Brasil or Argentinia. The US had a record harvest, the ending stocks are high, but the next season might yield less so you coudl assume $14 a bushel in May till the crop growth is known (the relation between seeded seeds and grown seeds which highly depends on the seed quality and the biological / cheemical agents used ) Or the US Natgas. I ran an analsis on the additional demand from Europe... which seemed to be shockingly low , some 5% more from the whole domestic US production. Most likely the missing supply from Qatar wasnt in the model. Since Qatar doesnt supply and the Senegal LNG facility isnt online yet the US NG prices might be suprisingly low. Or there happens some "silent buying"...

DanqueLeChay

So shit posting aside, wouldn’t it be fun with an actual casino where you play live markets at different tables. There’s drinks, girls & smoking allowed. High roller NG lounge etc.

SlartibartfastMcGee

Can’t wait to short NG after the initial pop at open tonight.

SlickRick941

RTX, NG, LMT calls This isn't hard, guys

SlartibartfastMcGee

Check out NG futures, trades in a range and if you’re not greedy can be a swing trade dream.

SlartibartfastMcGee

NG futures coming in hot to bring me green for the day, fuck yeah. The spread is wide as fuck, but if you can figure out the range, NG is a swing trade dream.

SlartibartfastMcGee

I am going to continue swing trading oil and NG all week and depositing the proceeds into SLS shares. I am currently up 10.04% on the week using this strategy.

Necromancer2k8

Because the US is on pace for another record production year. It's warmer then normal in the main buying & usage areas this time of year. The places that do need it are anywhere from 20-60 days by ocean from the gulf export hub so you gotta wait for ships to either come back or the hummus strait to open fully. Plus we got far too much in storage. All just bad news on NG/LNG front.

Taiyoken

ceasefire NG+

tachyonvelocity

I guess some people are still stuck in the 1970s, where oil shocks did have an effect on oil consuming US where there was no shale or SPR or any car efficiency regulation, where oil made up 17% of US energy generation. Today? US global exporter, oil intensity of US GDP is 60-70% lower, meaning the same oil shock is now 70% less relevant even IF the US wasn't an exporter. Oil percentage of energy generation IS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT. US energy generation through NG is literally close to FREE, and you're bearish tech? LMAO Do you know how Saudi stocks are doing? Pretty well even when it's exporting 50% less oil, because SA is making MORE money now than before the war. You think US money is flowing out? LOL, US shale is literally drowning in money, that flows through to all the bank loans.

GuitarCFD

> Down because there wasn’t gas. I work in the industry. We had something like 2 TCF of gas in storage at the end of the season. We had the gas...we didn't have the transport capability to get it where it needed to go. Was Katy empty...yeah probably...I don't have those numbers available, but our NG pipelines aren't segregated like our electrical grid is we just didn't have the transport capacity to get it from where the gas was to where it was needed to generate electricity. >And it’s not because of backup generators either lol. I didn't say it was because of back up generators...I said they worsened the problem. >There isn’t a dedicated industrial supply for generation. At what point did I say anything resembling that? <Pump stations didn’t have power and there wasn’t power because of excessive residential use of gas. Pump stations...you mean compressor stations on the pipelines? Most of those don't pull power from the grid...they have independent power sources...specifically because they need to work when power is down. The catch here is that those independent power sources also failed. >So the ultimate cause was gas availability. Yes I agree, but we disagree on what that word means. Every week the EIA releases storage numbers. The week of Uri saw a 338 bcf draw from storages. Which left us with over 2000 bcf in storage when uri was done. 338 is a huge draw...one of the biggest I've seen in 20 years in the industry...but we did not run out of gas we ran out of the ability to get gas from where it was...to where it needed to be. I've worked in the NG industry for over 20 years. My job is specifically related to gas transport. I was actively working during Uri.

GuitarCFD

> natural gas, while initially cheaper showed itself to be unreliable in terms of availability during major storms like what happened in Texas. I mean that's less a case for the unreliability of natural gas plants and much more a case for how ERCOT failed to enforce practices in those NG plants. The NG plants here were not winterized and shut down because of freezing temps. That's unreliability of the people running them. NG plants run all over the country in freezing temps when the people running them aren't morons.

RhythmQueenTX

What would be a good stock play on NG right now?

Sea-Oven-7560

Tech bros always think that they are the smartest guys in the room and that isn't the case. This isn't China where you can throw up a coal fired power plant in a week, it would take years to get the approval to build onsite power plants. They've already pissed off the locals, unless they plan on putting in massive solar and wind farm (which Trump would oppose) they are going to spend the next decade or two in court trying to get the permits What fuels are they going to use, solar and nuclear are the cheapest but again Trump hates renewables so that won't happen, then it's NG which is fine in the US until consumers start paying an extra 40% to heat their homes, which pretty much leave oil or coal and all the problems associated with that type of power.

Wide_Air_4702

Power plants do not run on oil, and NG prices have been unaffected by the war.

t3ch1t

The short term outlook is good. The next 6-12 months. It’s after the next year or two that I believe it will come back to bite us. The severity depends on how long the conflict lasts and if NG exporters build out more infrastructure to capitalize on the raised prices globally. But no the sky is not falling just yet.

t3ch1t

We are entering the lowest demand part of the year for natural gas and we have a ton of it in reserve. The peak of summer and winter are when the demand for natural gas is highest for cooling and heating. I just checked and our export capacity for gas is at its limit. New infrastructure would have to be built to meet demand and that will take time to build. This will limit the effect on the US price even though the price in the EU is 3 times as high. As for your second question the answer is they will only do that if they absolutely have to. It’s a catch 22. Oil is a backup fuel in the event that gas is unavailable or too expensive. But if both are expensive you either shut the power off or pick the cheaper of the two and electricity gets real fucking expensive. Short term the US price is insulated from the conflict. But the longer the war goes on and global NG prices stay elevated the more likely we build out infrastructure to export more to higher paying markets. Also every AI data center built greatly increases the demand for power. Which means more NG will be needed even in the off-peak seasons. Which will raise the price.

brizzario

Fracking hasn’t stopped. /NG is down a bit but that’s normal for this of year. We’ll never stop fracking.

SlartibartfastMcGee

Closed out 4 NG futures contracts for a nice profit today. I’m looking at the NG chart and I’m looking at the Middle East and a 3 day weekend and I’m really thinking about holding a contract open over the weekend.