NG

cms86

Fuel shortage ---> NG shortage with Helium by product (medical grade) ---> fertilizer(s)-----> Famine!!!!

PositiveEdge4361

Software at a FA[A]NG

Ok-Replacement9595

I doubt many use that type of fertilizer. Most of what farmers are worried about are ammonia based fertilizers made from NG. But I'm not an expert. But most grows I assume are organic and using the compost teas from what I've seen.

Steamcurl

Discounts on a space stocks but they'll likely depress more before earnings. Pipelines are generally good but I'm still on the fence with ASTS after being burned by the NG3 launch

ModeForJoe

In the US? Our liquifying capacity is way less than production so arb opportunities are very minimal, plus a slowing economy reduces demand. NG just hit 18 month low, so probably not going high anytime soon

ChewbaccaIsBear

Better than ready NG it during market hours 

maddead

They can but they never carried that heavy before. That's is why it's risky. What part of risky decisions you don't understand. A safe decision would have let someone's launch a heavy payload with NG first. But asts is desperate. They got no time. Just because they said they can doesn't mean they can. They basically used asts as a dummy sat to test their stage 2. And guess what by the time they launch amazon sat, no problem. They used asts desperation. They failed asts and ASTS still have to go back to them.

flynryan692

Spirit just won the FAA’s Diamond Award of Excellence for aviation maintenance for the eight year in a row. The fleet is well maintained. They also do not have 737NG’s, they have an all Airbus fleet and they’re not even using CFM engines that might be somewhat similar to the 737, so I’m left to think you have no idea what you’re talking about and hate Spirit for the sake of hating Spirit.

the_Q_spice

As someone who works for a non-competing airline (we do cargo only); Spirit treats their fleet like shit. They deserve every bit of this failure, the reason they are bankrupt isn’t economic reasons outside of their control, it’s because they are genuinely a terribly run company and airline that values minimizing expenditure over things like basic safety and maintenance. Unironically, part of Spirit’s issue was they cheaped the F out on their 737NG engines, which have been nothing but massive maintenance PITAs. That aside, Spirit idiotically continues to pay higher landing fees to secure slots at competitive hubs instead of taking the Ryanair (and other budget airlines) approach of going to cheaper subsidiary airports. Spirit is a tiny ass airline trying to compete toe-to-toe with the bigs, with their *only* draw being the lowest bidder. It’s a shitty business plan that ignores the colossal capital costs of maintaining presence at major hubs like ATL, ORD, DTW, FLL, LAS, DFW, etc. They have been continuously fined over their existence for false advertising, mishandling complaints related to treatment of customers with disabilities, and suffer the highest rate of DOT complaints and violations of any airline currently operating in the US. Other airlines have offered to buy them out on *multiple* occasions (Frontier, JetBlue). Spirit *themselves* are the reason both of these fell apart. The stockholders rejected Frontier’s bid and then Spirit actively fought against JetBlue’s offer. The offers were for $33-$33.50/share - hilarious considering the company’s price was $20-22/share at the time, and dropped to $0.44 before being delisted. Their CEO is currently promising a $6.2B revenue growth *this year* - which is an absolutely insane pipe dream of a number for them.

notapersonaltrainer

>Even within google the compensation is quite top-heavy, especially when you factor in stocks. First, by changing the goalpost I take it you concede the main point. Yea, and the invention of Pagerank is also quite top-heavy. These guys went around and offered to sell the entire company for $1m. And not to randos, but actual search experts like Yahoo. They passed, viewing Google as a risky bet with little perceived upside and a high likelihood of failure. When you hold something enormously risky that no one wants and it works out, the payoff is disproportionately large. That's literally how equities work and why America has such an innovative, long tail risk taking engine. Given the state of [Gemini](https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E10AQFbBTVjRRKmpw/image-shrink_800/image-shrink_800/0/1710023941967?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=NG8mS6OHRERs-l_iJvSjAaHKWcpzJIrbcLI8NvEWJZw) during their hiatus they may even be undercompensated. The turnaround has been almost been like Jobs coming back to Apple.

superdeeduperpower

Mod Note - the title is misleading, in that the launch was only partially successful. >*"NG-3 Update: We have confirmed payload separation. AST SpaceMobile has confirmed the satellite has powered on. The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit. We are currently assessing and will update when we have more detailed information."* \~Source: [Blue Origin X Account ](https://x.com/blueorigin/status/2045860091920896043) Approving because it's related to the stock, but be aware that it wasn't a 100% success.

edyang73

The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and NG.

New--Intern

NG3 suffered and upper stage anomaly. Initial calculations put the perigee at ~160-170km with a nominal apogee. At that lower altitude the atmosphere is very soupy. Ion thruster dV may not be able to recover. You would likely need to burn for your entire orbit and still may lose altitude. You would also need to do this immediately and there may be many other steps you need to do before starting this. Their ops team is having a busy day right now. I wish them luck.  They may possibly recover, but my water is this satellite de-orbits in a few days. 

kim82352

> Blue Origin NG-3 fail : ... The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit.

gurney__halleck

I mean disrupt the NG global markets through violence so that countries increase their oil imports from you is pretty terroristic 😂

ilove702

You need to isolate that variable to make a profitable bet. More than weather impacts the price of NG you could be right on the temperature prediction and still lose money if other factors overpower the weather input.

Necromancer2k8

They will probably do a 5:1 reverse on boil. That fucker is way to low now. I did my 22 -> 40 first run in the fall and the 16 -> 40 2nd run a few months ago & I ain't touching that shit anymore. We produce so much here that losing 20% of the worlds output in Qatar caused NG prices to fall off a cliff. Hard pass on that commodity manipulation BS from now on

SlartibartfastMcGee

NG is down like 40% in the last 2 months. It’s been a total elevator to hell. Great for swing trading though.

lemurtowne

Oil and natural gas are very different commodities. We've also been in an NG/LNG surplus for a while and a lot of refineries are upping production to offset the middle east disruption.

Poptart_Salad

From what little I know about NG, it's significantly more abundant than CL and hard to transport, so it's more sensitive to local demand/supply fluctuations. And weather. From what I've looked at on the chart it seems like Spring is typically the worst season of the year for it, the strongest being the extreme seasons Summer and Winter. So yeah, I'd just wait for the inevitable weather event pop and try to get out as close to BE as I can. Personally been thinking about getting long BOIL myself but NG is weird and scary to me. But this is getting to be a 2 year low so...starting to look appealing.

DeerCum

Lol they don't call NG the widowmaker for nothing.

slick2hold

Turmps buddies are pumping the market. 20% of LNG production is offline yet NG is at record multi-year lows. How the f*ck is that happening. I'm not complaining but how the f*ck does that happen? 20% is offline and NG keeps falling.

Steamcurl

NG3 currently aiming to launch this Friday 645am EST, should be an interesting time for overnight calls

Steamcurl

Friday 645 am EST NG3 Launch, inshallah.

small_root

My move tomorrow is to uninstall my life and play my existence at NG+

SlartibartfastMcGee

Free money to short oil any time it goes over $100. I was balls deep on a NG play so I missed it this time, but holy shit. Just keep a limit sell open and profit.

JustaBearEnthusiast

I'm not sure I understand. Wouldn't the natural gas being cut off from Russia and now the gulf states drive up demand/price for American natural gas? Or is it some weird thing where they can't use it American products because it LNG vs NG or something?

WickOfDeath

The answer is quite short: The market cycle is broken. When gold falls on geopolitical events then something is completely broken here, that is a clear sign of "something new". I would stick to those things which have a clear demand / supply cycle like US nat gas or ags. We all know when Trump will (again) impose 50% tariff on China China wont buy US soybeans any more... which are BTW overpriced compared with Brasil or Argentinia. The US had a record harvest, the ending stocks are high, but the next season might yield less so you coudl assume $14 a bushel in May till the crop growth is known (the relation between seeded seeds and grown seeds which highly depends on the seed quality and the biological / cheemical agents used ) Or the US Natgas. I ran an analsis on the additional demand from Europe... which seemed to be shockingly low , some 5% more from the whole domestic US production. Most likely the missing supply from Qatar wasnt in the model. Since Qatar doesnt supply and the Senegal LNG facility isnt online yet the US NG prices might be suprisingly low. Or there happens some "silent buying"...

DanqueLeChay

So shit posting aside, wouldn’t it be fun with an actual casino where you play live markets at different tables. There’s drinks, girls & smoking allowed. High roller NG lounge etc.

SlartibartfastMcGee

Can’t wait to short NG after the initial pop at open tonight.

SlickRick941

RTX, NG, LMT calls This isn't hard, guys

SlartibartfastMcGee

Check out NG futures, trades in a range and if you’re not greedy can be a swing trade dream.

SlartibartfastMcGee

NG futures coming in hot to bring me green for the day, fuck yeah. The spread is wide as fuck, but if you can figure out the range, NG is a swing trade dream.

SlartibartfastMcGee

I am going to continue swing trading oil and NG all week and depositing the proceeds into SLS shares. I am currently up 10.04% on the week using this strategy.

Necromancer2k8

Because the US is on pace for another record production year. It's warmer then normal in the main buying & usage areas this time of year. The places that do need it are anywhere from 20-60 days by ocean from the gulf export hub so you gotta wait for ships to either come back or the hummus strait to open fully. Plus we got far too much in storage. All just bad news on NG/LNG front.

Taiyoken

ceasefire NG+

tachyonvelocity

I guess some people are still stuck in the 1970s, where oil shocks did have an effect on oil consuming US where there was no shale or SPR or any car efficiency regulation, where oil made up 17% of US energy generation. Today? US global exporter, oil intensity of US GDP is 60-70% lower, meaning the same oil shock is now 70% less relevant even IF the US wasn't an exporter. Oil percentage of energy generation IS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT. US energy generation through NG is literally close to FREE, and you're bearish tech? LMAO Do you know how Saudi stocks are doing? Pretty well even when it's exporting 50% less oil, because SA is making MORE money now than before the war. You think US money is flowing out? LOL, US shale is literally drowning in money, that flows through to all the bank loans.

GuitarCFD

> Down because there wasn’t gas. I work in the industry. We had something like 2 TCF of gas in storage at the end of the season. We had the gas...we didn't have the transport capability to get it where it needed to go. Was Katy empty...yeah probably...I don't have those numbers available, but our NG pipelines aren't segregated like our electrical grid is we just didn't have the transport capacity to get it from where the gas was to where it was needed to generate electricity. >And it’s not because of backup generators either lol. I didn't say it was because of back up generators...I said they worsened the problem. >There isn’t a dedicated industrial supply for generation. At what point did I say anything resembling that? <Pump stations didn’t have power and there wasn’t power because of excessive residential use of gas. Pump stations...you mean compressor stations on the pipelines? Most of those don't pull power from the grid...they have independent power sources...specifically because they need to work when power is down. The catch here is that those independent power sources also failed. >So the ultimate cause was gas availability. Yes I agree, but we disagree on what that word means. Every week the EIA releases storage numbers. The week of Uri saw a 338 bcf draw from storages. Which left us with over 2000 bcf in storage when uri was done. 338 is a huge draw...one of the biggest I've seen in 20 years in the industry...but we did not run out of gas we ran out of the ability to get gas from where it was...to where it needed to be. I've worked in the NG industry for over 20 years. My job is specifically related to gas transport. I was actively working during Uri.

GuitarCFD

> natural gas, while initially cheaper showed itself to be unreliable in terms of availability during major storms like what happened in Texas. I mean that's less a case for the unreliability of natural gas plants and much more a case for how ERCOT failed to enforce practices in those NG plants. The NG plants here were not winterized and shut down because of freezing temps. That's unreliability of the people running them. NG plants run all over the country in freezing temps when the people running them aren't morons.

RhythmQueenTX

What would be a good stock play on NG right now?

Sea-Oven-7560

Tech bros always think that they are the smartest guys in the room and that isn't the case. This isn't China where you can throw up a coal fired power plant in a week, it would take years to get the approval to build onsite power plants. They've already pissed off the locals, unless they plan on putting in massive solar and wind farm (which Trump would oppose) they are going to spend the next decade or two in court trying to get the permits What fuels are they going to use, solar and nuclear are the cheapest but again Trump hates renewables so that won't happen, then it's NG which is fine in the US until consumers start paying an extra 40% to heat their homes, which pretty much leave oil or coal and all the problems associated with that type of power.

Wide_Air_4702

Power plants do not run on oil, and NG prices have been unaffected by the war.

t3ch1t

The short term outlook is good. The next 6-12 months. It’s after the next year or two that I believe it will come back to bite us. The severity depends on how long the conflict lasts and if NG exporters build out more infrastructure to capitalize on the raised prices globally. But no the sky is not falling just yet.

t3ch1t

We are entering the lowest demand part of the year for natural gas and we have a ton of it in reserve. The peak of summer and winter are when the demand for natural gas is highest for cooling and heating. I just checked and our export capacity for gas is at its limit. New infrastructure would have to be built to meet demand and that will take time to build. This will limit the effect on the US price even though the price in the EU is 3 times as high. As for your second question the answer is they will only do that if they absolutely have to. It’s a catch 22. Oil is a backup fuel in the event that gas is unavailable or too expensive. But if both are expensive you either shut the power off or pick the cheaper of the two and electricity gets real fucking expensive. Short term the US price is insulated from the conflict. But the longer the war goes on and global NG prices stay elevated the more likely we build out infrastructure to export more to higher paying markets. Also every AI data center built greatly increases the demand for power. Which means more NG will be needed even in the off-peak seasons. Which will raise the price.

brizzario

Fracking hasn’t stopped. /NG is down a bit but that’s normal for this of year. We’ll never stop fracking.

SlartibartfastMcGee

Closed out 4 NG futures contracts for a nice profit today. I’m looking at the NG chart and I’m looking at the Middle East and a 3 day weekend and I’m really thinking about holding a contract open over the weekend.

SlartibartfastMcGee

I fucking love energy futures. Missed out on the rally the past couple days but more than made up for it by going long oil yesterday and long NG today.

PositiveToe2761

Is natural gas just cooked? Seems like a good time to dip my toes into NG contracts I know nothing about

SlartibartfastMcGee

You fools missed the YTD low on NG futures.

obxtalldude

Yes, "gravity batteries" are used, water is one way. Still, costs are higher than NG for overnight use if you compare systems at the moment.

tankmode

utilties need supply a consistent power rate to maintain a stable grid and avoid blackouts. wind and solar have massive day-to-day variability due to weather.  everywhere that deploys renewables also has to deply back up systems (typically NG turbine power plants) to maintain the baseline power needed on the grid when the renewable systems can’t pruduce it.   this is extremely well documented in utility scale planning/engineering

Possible-Yak-4876

Can you explain more how the backup power of NG is necessary? Where I live, fracking is destroying groundwater and farmlands. The 3x statement id say is too high because the damage of NG fracking is largely untracked

tankmode

renewables sources are 3x more expensive than Natural Gas power plants and then you have to build the NG plant anyway as back up.  Its heavily dependent on government policy.  should they be part of the portfolio where it makes sense ? yes   silver bullet for Iran or whatever  no?

Alicyclobacillus

BREAK8NG NEWS: Trump lied again

Wiseman37367

Except for the fact that Orange Man made a deal, and now we are the leading exporter of NG. That itself drives the NG price up. Why are gas companies going to allow us to have cheap gas when they can export it for triple the price?

Wiseman37367

Crazy how the US has more NG than anywhere in the world and here we are fuckin Round in the Middle East.

sounddude

And that gravy train for the US dollar will last only as long as other countries realize how at risk they are continuing to use oil/NG as energy sources. This war will most certainly bring about a shift away from fossil fuels, and towards renewables, for the countries that realize the savings will outweigh the costs in the medium term. It may be short term painful, but realistically, not when fossil fuel energy costs 3,4, or even 5x more and has become subject to severe transportation and supply constraints. Keep in mind that Iran is now selling oil to China in Yuan to bypass sanctions. That could be the start of no more oil in USD.

chris_ut

Data centers run off natural gas not oil and the price of NG is not tied to oil in any way so your entire thesis is flawed.

p0rt

Not for energy we arent. There are no generators that run off of crude oil. Natural gas. Coal. Nuclear. Wind. Solar. Battery. Hydro. Some NG uses diesel as a backup but like... NG doesnt come from crude oil. Crude oil goes to plastics and machinery fuel. Not generator fuel - way too expensive and impractical even when oil prices were low. Common misconception that oil = grid energy.

randompersonx

Again - I'd say "bad for us, worse for others"... Higher oil prices translates to higher earnings in the energy industry. So, the economy will readjust with some industries doing better, and others doing worse. I'm not saying it won't be painful for people who don't work in energy/energy-related industries ... but compare the effect here to Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Italy, Spain which imports 100% of their oil/natural gas. India imports something like 90% of their crude oil. China imports something like 75% of their crude oil. Consider how much worse it is for them... And then imagine other countries which have essentially no refining capacity of their own and must import refined products like gasoline and diesel and jet fuel, like: Iceland, Australia and New Zealand. (Australia at least has their own NG).

mikedave42

Oil and especially NG crisis affects the world economy more than the US. As does the coming nitrogen fertilizer crisis.

turribledood

Commodities and/or companies that make shit loads of money when their commodity goes up. And fuck your stupid precious metals. I'm talking Oil, NG, Aluminum, Copper, etc. You can also buy volatility. VIX, UVXY, etc. And war stocks. Look up who makes bombs and jets and high tech infrastructure whatnot for the US/NATO. They're about to fire up some fresh orders from force attrition if nothing else, and possibly way more with real, sustained escalation. Finally, short big tech and other high beta recessionary targets. SQQQ calls, puts on the MAG7s, or smaller tech companies that are critically reliant on cheap debt. Inflation = no rate cuts = big sad for unprofitable growth stocks.

Livueta_Zakalwe

There’s fear in the air. But still WAY too many buy the dip posts. The 10% drop was just a necessary froth removal, a nothing burger in normal times. These are not normal times - we’re about to see an historic oil shock - a 20% shortfall in oil and NG, which we haven’t even felt yet because the tankers are at sea and still landing. In one month, there will be hardly any. Even if the Strait opened tomorrow (spoiler: it won’t), something like 30-40% of energy infrastructure in the Gulf has been destroyed, and will take years to replace. So we’re pretty much guaranteed oil around $100 for a few years. That’s if the situation doesn’t get much worse (eg, the Strait is closed indefinitely). We’re going much lower IMHO - at least another 10% is baked in, we’ll probably revisit the April lows, if not the 2022 lows. Lots of people haven’t ever experienced a real bear market, that gives up years of gains and takes years to recover. They’re a normal part of the process and look like blips on a long-term chart. They’re a gift if you’re young (and manage to keep your job). If you’re retired or close to it, a potential disaster.

FlipZip69

EU is going to have a real bad time. They introduced Windfall Taxes in 2022/2023 with a minimum rate of 33% on "excess profits" (those 20% above the 2018–2021 average). This resulted in a capital flight of 60-70 billion dollars from nearly every major gas producer. The statement by Shell (CEO Wael Sawan) "When you have such volatility [in tax policy], it fundamentally saps your conviction around your ability to see the returns... therefore you move your capital to the areas where you see healthy returns at lower risk.". Pretty much every major producer said the exact same thing and pulled out investment and moved it to other countries. That short term gain has resulted in the EU being are far higher exposure to rising NG prices and no longer having the local production to help it out.

MixtureSpecial8951

Problem is that the oil disruptions affect everything everywhere. It isn’t just gasoline or diesel. It isn’t just NG. It isn’t electricity or jet fuel costs. It is *everything* else. Oil is refined into plastic, resins, innumerable chemicals, photoresists, fertilizer, lubricants, waxes, synthetic fibers, rubber you name it. It is helium. It is the clothes we wear, the shoes on our feet, the crops in the field. It is the phones we are tapping away in, the chips deep inside. The IV delivering lifesaving medicine. Toothbrushes. Shampoo. Pens. *everything.* Much of the alternative “green” energy market depends on petroleum derived products (carbon fiber for example). Oil is *everything everywhere all at once.* Idiots and fools bitch and complain “no blood for oil” without realizing that *oil* is what makes our entire modern life possible. It is near as critical as the water we drink, the air we breathe. And right now 20% of the global oil market is bottled up. And a further 5% has been burned to the ground, kinetically decommissioned, vaporized, and otherwise destroyed in Russia by Ukraine as a direct consequence of the former’s brutal and genocidal invasion of the latter. And Ukraine is warming up. Russian oil tankers are increasingly at risk everywhere in the high seas. Releasing oil from reserves will only last a little bit. The US petroleum reserve (~415 million barrels at the moment) withdrawal capacity is limited. At full tilt, ~4.4m bpd, it will be gone in ~90 days. Trump has announced the release of 172 million barrels. The IEA has agreed to release 400 million barrels (of which the US is contributing 172m). China has an estimated ~1.2 billion barrels in reserve. That’s about 100-140 days of net imports. Also, their reserve is about the same size as the entirety of the strategic reserves held by the IEA members.

Fenc58531

NA NG exports aren’t limited by production volumes but rather by LNG facility throughput volumes. Can’t export more than you can physically liquify. As of now US exports are essentially maxed. TTF price movements will have a very marginal effect on HH price movements. NG doesn’t have a “global” benchmark like Brent or Gold

WafflesPayTheBills

I think there's a few factors playing against puts right now. ASTS although no official statements is likely to launch BB7 on NG3 early April. The FCC SCS approval is a looming. Artemis launch hype still circulating as well as the SpaceX IPO is all drumming favor for space stocks. I mean the war is definitely dragging everything down but there are definitely catalysts keeping it up. It's hard to imagine there being a deeper floor then say maybe 79 with this stock but I could be wrong. Good luck on your puts the next few weeks will be interesting!

shugo7

The longer the time the nore dangerous. All Blue Origin has to do is a static fire and you're more than fucked. Any tweet about their new batch sent to spaceX and the next NG. Time is literally not on your side since April is a more realistic launch month than March. If you buy puts on ASTS it has to be quick or you're playing Russian roulette

RelationshipShort460

agree. I just want oil production exposure that strongly benefits if long term price upside emerges (a central element to the thesis of these purchases). EQT, the same, except long term NG price increase.

lolthenoob

Your optimism is structurally anchored in where you sit. As a US citizen in a net energy exporter where only 2% of oil transits Hormuz, your worst-case scenario is painful petrol prices. For Japan (95% Hormuz-dependent) and South Korea (70%), and downstream countries like Australia and NZ, the ceiling is existential once reserves run out. That imbalance is the thing your analysis quietly sidesteps. Let me model this as a steady-state problem, because we have zero certainty on when or whether the Strait reopens. Hormuz carries roughly 20 mb/d — ~15 mb/d crude, ~5 mb/d refined products. Refined products are functionally equivalent to crude for global demand, so the full 20 mb/d counts. And tanker traffic has collapsed. Out of 100+ ships that normally transit daily, roughly 11 China-linked vessels made it through in a two-week window, and even those were catching shrapnel. If China and India - the most neutral, highest-leverage buyers, nominally permitted by Iran to pass — have stopped booking and are sitting anchored in the Gulf of Oman, there is no market-based circuit breaker operating right now. First, set aside the Iranian and Russian shadow fleet oil. Those barrels were already priced into the pre-crisis equilibrium. Unsanctioning doesn't create new supply — it merely formalises what was already flowing. It doesn't “conjure” new barrels. On bypass infrastructure: the Petroline pipeline can move 7 mb/d on paper, but the port at Yanbu is the actual constraint. Per Argus Media, the two terminals have a nominal combined loading capacity of ~4.5 mb/d. Vortexa puts the operationally tested wartime figure closer to 3 mb/d. Aramco also ships ~2 mb/d to its own Red Sea refineries before export crude leaves Yanbu, which eats into that headroom further. Add Fujairah (0.5–1.5 mb/d, port-constrained), and the realistic bypass ceiling is around 4 mb/d. Pipeline capacity from here: https://www.enr.com/articles/62677-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure-was-sized-for-a-short-disruption-this-is-not-that And that assumes Iran is static. Iran has the ability to attack alternative ports with drones. Fujairah was struck on 3 March. Yanbu is clearly within range of Iranian drone and missiles. These bypass routes were sized for a short disruption. So don't count on these ports being active for long term if there is escalation. Iran CAN and WILL destroy these if Trump escalates. Add the IEA's 400 mb release over ~120 days: that's roughly 3.3 mb/d. Net deficit after all of the above: ~12.7 mb/d. Approx 12% of global supply. Not something “trivial” as you say. Shale isn't a silver bullet here. I will first state that I am not acquainted well with shale. But I know it well enough to know it is not a silver bullet. Greenfield breakeven is around $65/barrel, which is fine, but the constraint under wartime uncertainty isn't price. Instead it is certainty. Operators need certainty to decide to commit capital to multi-year wells, but nobody knows if Hormuz opens next month or next decade. Subsidies could move that needle, but subsidies make ANYTHING work. And even at full throttle, incremental shale volumes address maybe 1–2 mb/d on a 12+ mb/d gap. The Dangote refinery adds maybe 650,000 b/d. roughly 5% of the deficit. The most important. A "20% global supply cut" is an abstraction that hides the real damage. Japan isn't facing a 20% cut. Japan is facing something closer to an 80–95% cut on its Hormuz-dependent flows. Korea and Singapore is 70%. Though they are “technically” part of the IEA 400 mil barrel release, these countries are already ring-fencing reserves: Japan has officially limited its IEA release to domestic use only. South Korea is operating an unofficial domestic-only policy. No fresh clean petroleum product exports have been observed from North Asian refineries via tender. Meanwhile, the US releases 172 million barrels (42% of the coordinated total) from a position of near-zero Hormuz exposure, structured as crude loans with an 18–22% repayment premium due by 2028. Generosity? my ass lol. They are making money from a war they started. And we all know this is domestically motivated to keep domestic petrol prices low for your president mid-terms. Oil is inelastic, and in a supply disruption, exposed countries prioritise their own supply. The free market rebalancing mechanism that works in normal times breaks down under hoarding conditions and supply uncertainty. The countries with the most exposure get no relief from the 80% of global flows that don't touch Hormuz. Natural gas is an underdiscussed point. Hormuz carried ~20% of global LNG. Saudi Arabia converted its NG pipeline infrastructure to carry crude for the bypass, so that gas supply is simply gone. Natural gas is the feedstock for the Haber process, which produces ammonia, which is the basis of synthetic fertiliser. Green hydrogen via electrolysis exists, but it's nowhere near industrial scale. A prolonged Hormuz closure means a fertiliser crunch, which means a food supply crunch. That's a slower-burning crisis than oil, but potentially more devastating. The energy component from gas is thankfully more replaceable. Domestic heating can be replaced by heat pumps. But industrial heating….is a tad more difficult. Biomass exists but it has quite a bit of issues. We don’t even have to touch electrification for process heat, because its non-sensical at the moment. Demand destruction? But it has a floor. The easy 20–30% cuts — work-from-home, odd/even plate systems, discretionary travel — are achievable. After that, you're cutting industrial load: aluminium smelting, cement, chemical production, fertiliser. Past ~50%, you're looking at food supply chain breakdown and medical logistics disruption. The world cannot ration its way out of a 12+ mb/d structural deficit. Especially the Asian countries and the pacific, whose a majority of energy come from Hormuz. Let’s think about it. If Japan gets zero oil from Hormuz, and its reserves are dry? Can it cut 80- 95% of crude and derived usage? Obviously not unless they go back to...maybe the industrial age? or stone age? Once the 90-day reserves run out in the most exposed nations, the situation stops being an economic problem and starts being a humanitarian one. Short-run price elasticity of demand for oil sits between -0.05 and -0.10. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/oil-price-elasticities-and-oil-price-fluctuations.htm Using the midpoint of -0.07: a 1% supply reduction requires a 14.3% price increase to clear the market. Run that math on a 20% supply shock — 20 ÷ 0.07 — and you get a 285% price increase. On an $80 baseline, that's ~$308/barrel. And $308 is likely an underestimate. Linear elasticity assumes a straight-line demand curve. The real curve is convex — at extreme shocks, each additional unit of supply removed requires a larger-than-proportional price increase to suppress demand, because you've already exhausted the discretionary consumption. The free market is fundamentally a rationing tool. It works by raising prices until marginal consumers drop out, clearing supply against demand. That mechanism has a hard operating condition: there must be marginal consumers left to price out. At say... $250/barrel, you have already cleared the entire discretionary demand curve. Everyone left buying is a hospital, a food logistics operator, or a military. These buyers share one characteristic: their alternative to paying is not "consume less," it is "people die." No price signal reaches them, because there is no price at which they stop. The mechanism has run out of margin to work with. At that point the market doesn't clear, it either produces prices that are societally impossible to enforce, or it triggers government override through rationing, requisitioning, and price controls, which is exactly what Japan and Korea are already doing. Both outcomes mean the free market has stopped functioning as designed. Invoking supply and demand as the circuit breaker for this crisis assumes the tool is still operating within its own preconditions. Past a certain supply threshold, it isn't.

Thisispaartaaa

yet NG goes down??? makes total sense

ithoughtofthisname

produce supply will not be as affected as you think globally. Unlike NG and oil, there are at least alternatives that can be used on crops, it just is not as cheap. If you really want to be a savvy trader, buy as much manure as you can, not gold!!!!!!!!

SlartibartfastMcGee

NG futures looking tempting right now…

MoonBase287

Would’ve been perfect to share. I could’ve also explained further about how that’s how the NG industry works. How NG absolutely needs a stream to flow to or it just gets burned. How that was simply that was just what was done with NG for decades after the discovery of petroleum before industry figured out how to purpose it. I really wanted him to try and learn more on his own since it was the economics sub. Also I’m not gonna invest much time in a rando online unless there’s some sort of friendship developed over time.

Prometheus013

I was suicidal in 2020 losing it all on energy options when covid sent oil and NG negative. Was 90k total I blew through. More than I had. I had to accept there was more to life than money, I had a kid to live for. At the time a wife and her supportive girlfriend before they went full waffle munching and I had my second divorce.

Prometheus013

Hit their biggest NG and lng already. It's only further tit for tat now

SlartibartfastMcGee

Lost my ass on shorting the Dow just now, but hey, made $16 on NG futures so I got that going for me.

mtech101

The NG you are watching are US domestic prices. NG is priced domestically, not globally like Oil.

oopsallhuckleberries

Almost like when we learned Israel was going to target Iran's gas field that we should have, I don't know, told them to not do that. But of course the media is all but ignoring it was Israel who escalated this by striking Iran's NG field first. How the hell are we at this point in the war still not taking Iran's threats seriously when they openly tell us what they will do in response to certain actions being carried out by Israel and the US.

Slow-Information-847

y'all, oil is undervalued. After we blow up 30% of NG supply + Iranian NG facility(one of largest too), those power station needs to switch to oil to keep running. We can't just re-start coal plant, It needs somebody to re-open the mine, book cars to transport the coal to the port, and find coal ship and ++

Jagged_Tide

Since I love you regards I’ll tell you what ChatGPT told me: Quatar NG disruption + Hormuz closure are going to create a bottleneck on global NG, US NG markets while insulated will be directly affected. It’s telling me the base case for $UNG open tomorrow is $14.20-$15.20. That’s base. Load up on 3/20 calls, I put my last few dollars into them. Either I go broke or I walk away with a fair chunk of change tomorrow. GPT is usually pretty conservative, so I expect this to open above $14. You can either trust me or not, I’ll update tm either way though

targetedliberal

Almost as bad as NG futures lol

ModeForJoe

Why would President Netanyahu escalate by hitting a NG facility like this!? I know I voted for the Epstein Liberation Front last election, but I didn't vote for this! How could Commander in Chief Bibi do this to us?

OMGporsche

That also puts demand on other forms of energy. Coal, NG, etc

Jagged_Tide

UNG moon, Qatari NG field destroyed

SlartibartfastMcGee

I love NG futures because it lets me control 10,000,000,000 of something for like $6,000.

katrav86

volume profiles seem next to useless for trading /NG the gapups and gapdowns are absolutely brutal. but i still can't stay away from this crazy sexy bitch. can't explain that

Torgud_

Since last week 90% of my portfolio has been in US fertilizer stocks, US petrochemical stocks and US oil and NG companies. Oh and gold (a position I picked up a year ago and haven't changed). You could say that I bet that this wasn't going to go well, and that it's not possible to TACO out of war when the other side can still fight back.

LarryStink

Im an equity guy at heart with a sprinkle of bonds and FX, but imo NG is going play catchup up to oil in the coming days. Also soft commodities are going to likely rally Bigly this year. 

VancouverSky

Cleaner. But less powerful than traditional diesel. NG can't match Diesels low RPM torque output. And yes, that's a problem. There is the additional problem of it being a compressed gas in a tank, pretty dangerous thing to have in a car crash.

Rich-Butterscotch173

I have 10% of my total holdings I use for 'fun', or GRQ (get rich quick) trading. Flipping really, gambling actually. Playing tips. Gambling on NG. Flipped lots of stocks for 10-20% to then miss out on 200%+ runs tho. Buy NDVA at $100, sold at $120 years ago, hahaha. Idiot. RCAT at .60 in 2024, sold at .80, now $15.

95Daphne

You see, the thing that is extremely bizarre here is that the Cleveland nowcast shows a DECLINE on headline for March compared to April even with oil being much higher. My only explanation on this is natural gas I guess. It hasn't joined crude's spike and for whatever reason, I don't think NG in January registered as it got cold too late for it to do so with how they calculate inflation.

tandoori_taco_cat

RIP oil and NG bros

Fwhometeam

Domestic fuels baby… RNG/CNG and Biofuels. Lots of class 8 trucks are transitioning to NG engines and it costs way less than diesel… transition was already happening. This just throws fuel on the fire

Carolinaathiest

Coal and NG

Jagged_Tide

NG up I bet

InquisitorCOC

Yes, because: - Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are 90+% dependent on Gulf oil export - 20 million barrels a day pass through SoH - Saudi has a 7 million bypass to Red Sea, UAE has a 1.8 million bypass to Oman - Iraq only has 0.5 million bypass in the north - Kuwait can't export anything and just declared Force Majeure in its energy production - Qatar's LNG is 100% off since March 2 - Taiwan's electricity generation is 48% LNG, of which 31% is from Qatar; Taiwan also **shut most of its nuclear reactors in 2010s** - South Korea's is 25% LNG, of which 15% comes from Qatar - Japan's is 31% LNG, of which 11% comes from Qatar. Japan is in the process of restarting many reactors and building new ones - US total liquids (crude of NGL) production is the same as Russia and Saudi Arabia combined - 85% of Canadian liquids export is pipelined directly into US refineries, **before** some going back to Ontario and Quebec. Canada is the 4th largest liquids producer in the world - US NG production is more than number 2, 3, 4 producers (Russia, Iran, China) combined - US is the largest LNG exporter, but its spare capacity is very thin - US drilling rig count is near the historically low despite record production, which means the potential to increase production is huge - US has further secured cooperation with the very oil rich Venezuela as both countries reestablished diplomatic relationship 3 days ago Even though U.S. stocks declined last week, the magnitude was far less than international stocks -------- China's economy is already heavily electrified. They have enough coal and humongous solar & wind & battery capacities They have also built a very large SPR over the last few years They are the only country in the world who can still talk some sense into the IRGC They will be fine, and they may actually emerge a winner in this war

Slow-Information-847

A lot of countries only has 10 day NG supply. They will have to switch to oil very soon.

Garbage-Disposal-938

but a lot of the oil/NG infrastructure is fucked now. and shipping insurance rates won't come down right away. and shipping will take a while to ramp back up. how can it bounce back so quickly?

splitstar2004

Shorting NG for the spring will pay the bills