Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR
PBR, VALE, ABEV are great value stocks with good dividends that will outperform if not nationalized. Position size appropriately that if they drop to zero you‘ll be able to stomach the loss. PBR is trading at 2x earnings. I think there’s rules against tickers of sub $1B companies but there’s only two publicly traded firearms companies in the US, they are market cap around 700M. They’ve been hit hard in the last few months. I loaded up on more. WBA Walgreens looks cheap And nice diversifier from my otherwise commodity producers. I’m keeping an eye on Kohls KSS because it looks cheap but has run up a bunch lately so I’d like to be a pull back. It may not happen and I may miss it but I am okay missing stuff. I want to buy $1 for to cents, rather than buy $1 for $2 and hope it goes to $3. From a macro level, shoppers will be forced to downgrade. Target shoppers go to Walmart. And I think Kohls is a lower tier kind of place in the middle class realm. I can see new shoppers downgrading from something better down to kohls. Also there’s the bullwhip effect and I think lots of apparel and home goods places are overstocked. So they might offload stuff to kohls cheaper than usual. I really like gold miners like GDXJ but it’s run up 30% in recent weeks so it’s tough to say it’s as good of a deal as when I got in, but I think 2x or 3x over a year is possible. If the fed pivots, GDXJ could soar. Gold is at 1750 now. It was over $2000 in early 2020 before we got 30% debasement of the dollar supply. It \*should\* be $3,000 an ounce now. Gold miners are a leveraged play in that if gold doubles, then miners might 5x or 10x. But it works both ways if gold goes down. Miners use diesel as input cost so being long oil stocks is a good internal hedge. Speaking of oil. I loaded up on tanker stocks when the pipeline magically exploded and they’re up 40% in a couple months. FRO is my fav but it’s run up a bit so Id wait to see if it drops down back to 10 before entering.
Not too* I am short oil right now.. you are about to get fucked. The time to buy oil was 2020. When it was $0. Now it has peaked and coming down. At a min. Your should hedge.. and PBR out of all oil companies? Many oil stocks have dividends. PBR is sketch. I was working at FMC technologies back in 2013. PBR had $4B in orders in our backlog. Then a scandal emerged. PBR was fucked. I would never touch this.
That’s because of broad-based reopening and the loss of Russian oil. Brazilian president running with the assumption he’ll be strict on oil. It’ll come down to what he does. PBR did just find a real thick vein of oil but we’ll see if big G intervenes
Brasil has some massive assets, but behind those assets are people whose corruption can consume more than the entire pie. PBR was forced into taking loans from China despite tremendous profitability simply because everything from the price they charge to infrastructure firms they had to use was fixed. The problem is the pension system will mathematically bankrupt Brasil and going back to Lula, while appeasing those tired of Bolsonaro's antics, won't fix this problem. This leaves Brasil ultimately uninvestable despite having some great firms. Hence you see really high dividend rates in Brasil. Companies trying to get capital to shareholders before the poliarcos can take it. Feel free to go long with ILF, but don't be restarted buy YOLOing here.
Interesting time to get interested. What's your tack? I've been sticking to a few good call stocks, blue chips, shorting anything has been like 50/50 for going positive and a net fuckery. I like XOM, I like BA, I like MOH. Every once in a while, a gambler's stock. Like PBR. I've got 12c 12/23 and 14c 1/20.
Wanted to dive into that one when the Depp Horizon explosion cratered the stock (I am contrarian). Didn't have the cash at that time. I'm in PBR instead for my oil stock, yeild is around 10% to 11% ish. I have VALE & BHP for my mining stocks, good dividend there too. Everything is on DRIP.
Thanks for the comment. The issue I'm facing is I'm unsure exactly how to balance my portfolio. Like you mentioned, some of the stocks and sectors I hold will surely continue to do well in a extended bear market. But I also have the stocks and sectors that are down -30-40% (*I didn't buy them at their height*) that will explode upwards when the market sentiment becomes more bullish (*though this may be a while*). So if I were to hold only stocks and sectors that are defensive, then I'd be ignoring the deep value in stocks like MED, WSM, HPQ. But in turn, if I were to focus only on these deep value stocks, then I will likely suffer during an extended bear market. COKE, AGRO, NRG, AMN, CMCSA, ALL; these are my defensive plays. While MED, WSM, HPQ, BPOP, PBR are my offensive plays. So I'm about 53.25% defense. Though MED and WSM have both sometimes done well during bear markets. It's difficult figuring out how to balance the deep value offensive plays with the moderately valued defensive plays. If I go all defensive, then I'd be missing the stocks that I think are great businesses and that are down -30-40% --but these stocks will likely continue to do poorly in a recession --but then again, they may be near their bottom.
>I recommend buying the ASTS $10 call, DKS $80 put, META $120 call, PBR $12 call, and WISH $0.5 put options contracts expiring on November 18th. I also recommend buying the QS $8.5 call option contract expiring on November 25th and the CLOV $1.5 call option contract expiring on December 9th.
Haha remember when Chamath Palyhapitya went viral in 2020 calling out the airlines for their greed and how wallstreet screws the little guy then asks for a bail out? Then he proceeded to pump and dump a ton of shit SPACs on retail and his LPs? PBR remembers 😉
​ |MED|14.75%|discretionary; diet| |:-|:-|:-| |COKE|10.75%|staple; beverage| |AGRO|10.75%|staple; farming| |WSM|9.50%|discretionary; retail| |HPQ|8.25%|tech; computers| |NRG|8.25%|utility; gas| |AMN|8.25%|healthcare; staffing| |BPOP|8.25%|financial; bank| |CMCSA|8.25%|utility; telecom| |ALL|7.00%|financial; insurance| |PBR|3.00%|energy; oil| |*cash*|3.00%|| Made my portfolio more defensive. More consumer staples and utilities. Ready for anything now. (24.25% discretionary; 21.50% staple; 16.50% utility; 15.25% financial; 8.25% tech; 8.25% health; 3.00% energy) (4.69% dividend)
>Being a Brazilian: I wouldn’t touch PBR with a 10 foot pole. Lula and his political party was also responsible for a huge corruption scandal that nearly broke petrobras. Which is why it trades at like 1/4 of other oil majors. >Now he’s talking about interfering with petrobras pricing politics to subsidy internal market and to just go full brrr on the money printer. Be very careful with this one yes
Being a Brazilian: I wouldn’t touch PBR with a 10 foot pole. Lula and his political party was also responsible for a huge corruption scandal that nearly broke petrobras. Now he’s talking about interfering with petrobras pricing politics to subsidy internal market and to just go full brrr on the money printer. Be very careful with this one…
Lol at some delusional Brazilians in national team jerseys literally kneeling down in front of military units, begging them for a terrorist "coup", good thing most generals already told bolso, the thief, and wanna-be "coupster" to fuck off, and he's probably going to jail in a year max. So there's new hope for PBR (which had 30% gains in a matter of days two weeks ago, now erased), BBD, ITUB, BDORY and PETRORIO How fucking delusional is that? https://imgur.com/a/OEqA4xT
Im anticipating a rough 2023 so I'm sticking to my holdings but I'm looking more into foreign companies or at least American companies with a strong international presence. I've been doing well with BRK.B, HCA and CAT. I've started to buy into Rubis,VALE, BHP, PBR,ASAI,HDB, and a few more companies outside the country. I restarted my position in GOOGL at $94. I feel investors should really start looking outside the US. it's just a matter of time before the dollar collapses. Latin America is where I'm setting my eye. Also I'm Keeping an eye on the small cap CSV. It's a funeral service company that's aggressively aquiring all the mom and pop funeral homes. It's been really beat up recently.
$BTU: Coal producer that prints money even if coal gets cut in half from here $PBR: Brazilian Oil Producer that is undervalued historically to itself. 40% dividend yield. Pessimistic market due to Lula being voted president, but congress is divided and during Lula's last precidency PBR 8x. $MOS: Undervalued fertilizer company.
I have pretty hefty positions in both $GLNG & $FLNG. I have shares & calls on FLNG due to divi. Glng calls and leaps. They are little different: $GLNG is a good play. They build and sell ships, charter them, but the most important thing is they make floating regasification units. I'm sure you saw the boats getting backed up bc they don't have enough regasification terminals or place to store. GLNG takes old tankers and turns them into them. They have already sold 2 to Italy. First one gets delivered q1 2023. They also have a floating storage vessel off Italy coast. The onshore terminals take about 5 years to build out. Where the glng floating terminals can be pumped out in 12-16 months. They have contracts with BP. PBR. SAUM. They are the first company to recycle old vessels & do this successfully. Not onky is shipping a problem and not enough regasification infrastructure (which is why you saw the glut earlier this months and 32 ships sitting in a port). This is the fastest way to get these countries what they need. FlNg has more immediate upside but GLNG is an awesome long as well.
You’re an idiot. Bolsonaro held a huge amount of power, and if anything, the election would have been rigged in his favor. From the beginning, he was mirroring the Trump lie of “if I lose, something’s wrong.” The Brazilian people were sick of him, and they chose Lula. Go watch the Last Week Tonight episode from a few weeks ago that focuses entirely on this election. (I already made money on PBR puts btw.)
Sooo much this. Governments like to act and talk as if they are already balls deep in green energy options affordable to all. They are not. But to look good and make a show of being good for the environment they just throw more taxes on oil which then get passed down to consumers. Many countries want to try nuclear energy but like 10 years worth of time to get anything set up for that and really it's just Russia who has their shit together for uranium. So basically the West is up shit creek. I did a yolo $30k at PBR stock back in September and holy fuck bud am I leaving it there and just wait for dividends to pay for what I bought them for. Brazil is using PBR like a piggy bank to keep rest of their economy afloat, they make mad profits with continuing energy crisis that won't go away for reasons you listed. That beauty yield ain't gonna dim with the way this world is going for how we are with energy and rest of economy.
I am reasonably confident that oil and gas stocks are going to surge because we will simultaneously have: - midterm elections in the rearview mirror - cold winter weather (particularly relevant for natural gas) - strategic petroleum reserve release finally completed (thanks to our favorite senile communist...) - fully effective ban on Russia oil and Putin’s retaliation - OPEC continuing their recent cuts strategy - China sooner or later will release the zero-Covid restrictions and gradually reopen. However, unfortunately PBR doesn’t quite seem to be in the best position to surf this wave, as others have been pointing out. Based on a little proprietary model I built for fun, my top recommendations (in random order) are OXY DVN EOG SM DINO OVV ERF APA. Disclaimer 1: not financial advise Disclaimer 2: I own relevant long position in all the above oil companies
>It is clear that the market for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is highly volatile, with significant price movements in both directions over the past decade. The company's stock has more than tripled in value since 2003, but it has also experienced a number of sharp declines, most notably during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Despite this volatility, PBR remains one of the largest and most important companies in Brazil, and its share price will continue to be closely watched by investors around the world.
Non SPAC for my friends - PBR has a ~10% div coming. $1.3 per share. Ex div Nov 22. Last time they had a $2.2 div it ran up 1-2weeks before. $11 calls close to intrinsic or just ride the shares and get div. Also EC earnings next week and thing is dirt cheap. Could easily announce $1+ div
Until you sleep only a few hours a day for years, subsist on a diet of Top Ramen and PBR, sacrifice human interaction for the sake of your "art," and get treatment-resistant depression from living in a cramped van with people you can't stand (or if you can, replace that with treatment-resistant syphilis)...
**2:30 PM ET:** *Powell stumbles to the mic. Eyes blood red. White residue covers the Harley Davidson cut off tee he has on from the night before....* *Half a 30 rack of PBR and a topless Yellen seen just out of frame... He pulls out his last stoge, and whispers:* "1000 bps. Good luck regards. Jerome out"
Lula was president of brazil from 2003 to the end of 2010 when PBR stock went from a 3 dollar stock to a 30 dollar stock, hitting a high of 70.50 in 2008. You might be a foolish ape indeed to bet against PBR during a Lula presidency. After Lula left office PBR went back down to the 4 to 5 dollar range and is now still only around 13. Good luck shorting PBR when oil companies world-wide are reporting record profits.