PFIX
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF
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I'd look at: - HFSI 6.2% - PFRL 7.7% Both are pretty stable, diversified, and high yield If you think long term interest rates will rise in the near future, PFIX might be good too.
You have to buy an *inverse* bond fund to move the same direction as changes in yield. An example of this in the extreme would be PFIX or TMV, which basically are shorting bonds, TMV going 3x inverse TLT and PFIX using swaptions on intermediate treasuries.
my whole portfolio is pretty much a hedge at this point (US equities down to 10% and defensive) but specifically PSQ, TAIL, PFIX along with FXF, FXY, FXA
And now Complexify™️ has given us PFIX to do just that (essentially short TLT)
For anyone who wants to inverse this play, TTT or PFIX are options to consider.
Simplify ETF's might have stuff that meets this. Combination of HIGH, BUCK, CDX, PFIX come to mind.
Im catching up on all this, looks like these all did really well in the 3 months since you commented except for PFIX. If you average them for the YTD it looks like 20% ish... I am a weird combo of degen day-trading (believe it or not I am up 50% on the year lol) and then my day job offering me matching incentives to have a 401k. I am interested in somewhere in the middle so im not ape-ing all my money that isn't in 401k or just savings...these ETFs seem decent I guess.
The ETFs I would recommend that I've seen pretty good gains from so far are: XLE BIBL IVW SCHX XLI PFIX SPLG
RISR is the answer you may be looking for. Also, PFIX had hedged my portfolio really well last year.
Rising: TMV 3x short long bonds PFIX has puts on long bonds which will do better in a panic due to the vol component. Short TUA if you want to bet on the short end rising instead of long (hawkish fed). Falling: TUA or any long duration bond fund.
IVOL holds TIPS with a convex 2-10 steepener using swaptions. Today is a good example of the underlying TIPS down but the fund is up due to the steepener. If I recall from their presentation it does better when the 2s side is volatile (more of a bull steepener situation). You could also construct your own trade with long TUA for a levered exposure to the 2s side and short the long end with any long end inverse fund or PFIX interest rate hedge.
IVOL holds TIPS with a convex 2-10 steepener using swaptions. Today is a good example of the underlying TIPS down but the fund is up due to the steepening. If I recall from their presentation it does better when the 2s side is volatile (more of a bull steepener situation). You could also construct your own with long TUA for a levered exposure to the 2s side and short the long end with any long end fund or PFIX interest rate hedge.
Puts on bonds Puts on stocks Calls on vix And getting some $PFIX Barsss
IN these time better to check out the PFIX rather than wasting time somewhere else.
if you think rates are going up, long PFIX.
Mark-to market rule already exist, they used backdoor methods/practices to avoid that scrutiny. Second, they took enormous duration risk and kept at it without any hedges, which is laughable for amount of money they were managing. They could have bought $PFIX or deployed similar hedging techniques, but they didn't.
❤️$PFIX, makin my portfolio moon rn
Currently positive on PFIX should I hold the weekend?
Yeah their are all sorts of options. Interest rate swaps are typically only offered OTC, but there are some etfs that use them. Check out PFIX. Up like 60 percent since last year. It’s an interest rate hedge etf
PFIX has been printing nicely last 2 days
Merrill has very good customer support, tho five minute waits are common I guess. They do not allow some ETFs that are with companies they don't do business with, are new or very volatile. I doubt many people would look at even the best banned ones (PFIX, USO, AAPU) for "long term investment".
I own PFIX. You can research it more if you want, but essentially it benefits from high interest rates and market votality.
I own a lot of PFIX, which is an interest rate hedge. To simplify it, it basically profits from high interest rates and market votality
PFIX interest rate hedge ETF could be a good bet until pivots
TMV: +149% ytd (but not so good now) PFIX: +86% ytd PXE/IEO: +67/+61% ytd IEZ: +26% past month https://etfdb.com/compare/ Best performing ETFs for week, month, 13 weeks, ytd, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years
no, I didn't, luckily my comment is right abocve you, so read it again. hell, I'm feeling generous, just re-read it here: "You are right that i do not know this, I simply think it, but isn't the same true of every market prediction?" want to rephrase your comment? BTW, I am all in on hedges like this: PFIX is actively managed to provide a hedge against a sharp increase in long-term interest rates. The fund holds OTC interest rate options, US Treasurys, and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). and this: RRH is an actively-managed, multi-asset ETF that aims to profit during periods of rising interest rates. up over 40% this year, maybe I will write that book after all.
No, I was focused on bonds. The job report was bad, and initial pump gave way quickly to dumping. The market corrected and tested 370 three times and only recovered on Fed Evans comments which undercut JPows comments from wayyyyy back on… Wednesday. I can’t read much into intraday swings right now, which is why the big picture matters most. I’m positioned to hedge against a short term rally but I also hold a significant position with puts on real estate related etfs. My primary money maker has been calls and shares of TMV and PFIX since early august. October was rough, but yields will soon soar again.
been PFIX and TMV gang since August.
About 40% of my portfolio is in PFIX, which basically makes money when interest rebates go up. I might be seeing some green tomorrow.
PFIX until the Fed pivot, then short PFIX.
Why is PFIX halted today? It’s not from volatility? Anybody? Bueller? Bueller?
PFIX BULL Go get em brothers... PFIX is an inverse that buys puts on bonds, bets against rising rates. . I is run by the guy that invented the MOV which is the bond equivalent of the VIX. World expert on Bonds! They are killing it. I just bought some, but I am still learning about these 'puts' and 'calls' stuff. So I am not doing that yet. But I wondering how to do that. I am sure you guys can make money buying calls on PFIX
There’s already a cost efficient implementation for this - PFIX, essentially puts on long bonds, YTD is basically inverse of TMF. Fwiw I started going long TMF by selling put spreads. Been a long time, friend :)
gonna hang with the complexity maven in $PFIX Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF \+93.96% in 52 weeks.
55 days? PFIX, LMT, SGML, NFE, maybe NOC if it dips.
Ooh PFIX baby what is you doin
Seems you could construct a pure inflation product using PFIX to hedge out the duration component.
What do you all think about **$PFIX** as a hedge right now?
The two best performing ETFs for the past five years, by far, are TAN +250% (solar) and QCLN +206% (clean energy). Next best is ROM at 168%, the 2x version of XLK. With the recent US law, solar and clean energy should even more outperform the market than they have in the past. But... even they aren't currently beating the market. Aside from PFIX ("Simplify Interest Rate Hedge"... meant to go up if interest rates go up) conventional energy ETFs have done the best this year. But... even they aren't currently beating the market. If you want to get into both, I'd reccomend against individual stocks like XOM and instead get ETFs, specifically TAN/QCLN and PXE/IEO. They outperform both their peers and the overall market.
Someone tell me what I’m missing: I’m all in on PFIX. Harry Bassman has been very clear regarding its structure and layout. Its meant as a hedge for fixed income volatility (bonds and interest hikes). It’s a long put on treasury rates, strike at 4-4.25%. It’s all but guaranteed to double in value from $61 today to $100+… It went down today, but I’ve been riding this since early Aug and it is primed. News of 75bps hike is gonna send it past $71
Easy answer: PFIX. Long end rates go up, property values go down. So make money when rates go up, boom hedged.
I bought PFIX as a hedge. What other ETFs are you all looking at for interest hikes? WHich inverse ETFs do well in a 4% interest hike scenario? I'm thinking short real estate ETF like DRV
PFIX should generally move in the opposite direction of 20 year bonds. 20 year bonds were up today so PFIX was down.
I’m so confused. Why is PFIX tanking with the market following Powell’s speech? Shouldn’t it react inversely?
I'm not thinking there will be a sudden and drastic increase I'm just thinking the feds target on 2% inflation will be a bit before they start to ease monetary policy once again, with higher rates on the horizon for at least a couple years I see a pretty good chance that valuations in Financials and Healthcare will be pretty healthy. I like to hedge my risk against geopolitics with Defense giants who typically do quite well in any market, and precious metals which is just more preferred than holding cash, as I believe that it limits downside risk of a recessionary collapse, causing defaults to Financials. Interest rates suppress tech stocks and high growth stocks because Capex concerns means that companies are forced to either raise prices or take the hit on a strong U.S. dollar conversion rate. All in all I think my portfolio is an extremely defensive one, which will still appreciate if the economy does well and rates stay flat, but will perform even better if markets stagnate or we have a slight recession/geopolitical risk heightening. You can take a look at lots of bubbles in the past and bear markets and many times we've seen bull runs into an even further selloff in bear markets. 1929, 2000, 2008 we're all examples of this, I just don't think the nasdaq is going to reach it's highs again with rates on the rise and it's a risky place to be invested until the Fed signals they're ready to cut rates. It took 15 years for the Nasdaq to break even after 2000. I'll probably rebalance this to reduce exposure to healthcare vs banks, as healthcare is a very strong sector and performs well in recessionary environments. I did look at PFIX but I my outlook tends to be a multi-year one so I don't really like to trade, coming into the September meeting with an expected hike of 50bps or 75 bps I can see this as a useful investment
I don't buy your whole premise about interest rates driving everything else in terms of investments, but you might like PFIX. "PFIX is an ETF actively managed to provide a hedge against a sharp increase in long-term interest rates." It was doing great until the market bottomed in June and has done crap since then, but if you believe higher rates will be defining us for the next couple years, you might like to put some dollars in it.
I'm by no means an expert but I think we are potentially entering a recession and equities may not be the best investment at the moment. I would consider diversifying to commodities and inflation hedges (e.g., TIPS, interest rate options, etc), which is what I'm thinking of doing. Bonds make less sense now as they tend to depreciate when interest rates rise. If you look at commodities consider buying a managed futures fund (mutual fund or ETF), I think those have been performing remarkably well in the recent past but good old gold is probably not a bad idea either. In general, I think you wanna look at equities and commodities as sources of return and TIPS and inflation hedges (e.g., IVOL and PFIX) as downside protection. Be particularly careful with the latter, as they can be sensitive to inflation and interest rates and are intended as a modest allocation for hedging purposes. You can also try to pick a fund that balances all those things for you, the one I have been looking at is RDMIX.
This has been my working list. Some of these work in down markets but be quick to take profits or stop out (like we saw with commodities). * Managed futures * SVOL * Long/short funds * Inflation expectations funds INFL * Defensive low vol high dividend funds SPHD * Energy/commodities * Long/short pair trades (tech/utilities, value/growth, high beta/low beta) * Short equities * Short high yield credit * Swing trade VIX * Long dollar UUP * Rising rate hedge PFIX And don't forget cash is a great position in a bear. CPI is just one type of inflation but every dollar in your account has been appreciating in terms of currency, fixed income, and equity assets.
$PFIX might be close
Plenty of macro trades available. * Managed futures * SVOL * Long/short funds * Inflation expectations funds INFL * Low vol high dividend funds SPHD * Energy (possibly a little toppy right now) * Pair trades (short tech long utilities) * Short high yield credit * Swing trade VIX * Long dollar UUP * Rising rate hedge PFIX
If you ain’t in $PFIX you ain’t black. And you’re a moran.
I wish I had my entire portfolio in $PFIX. It’s my best position. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late now to shift it. 😭
Meanwhile PFIX up 50% the last 3 months,,, FOOMO
PFIX in a big way tomorrow
PFIX is the greatest investment I’ve ever made.
PFIX is very close to inverse TMF. 5% TMF & 5% PFIX would almost be like holding 10% cash.
any thoughts on including an interest rate hedge like PFIX?
DIVERSIFY KID Sumbols: IAU WBIY NUV - fed tax-free muni basket VTWO XLF PFIX AND keep researching strong stonks balance sheets with outstanding mgmt with great quarterly track records
How do you short the entire bond market? Did you just buy into PFIX?
PFIX seems to be doing well because inflation and interest rates and long-term treasury yields are rising.
Fuck it. All in PFIX, wake me up in a year
My GUNR, SPLV, INFL, and BRK have been killing it. Stablecoin lending yields dropped a bit but still a solid 6% yield. I've been researching managed futures funds as another option. PFIX if you think rates have higher to go. Although TLT is so beat up it might be a buy soon. I unfortunately bought some too early. I'd average into Bitcoin in the 30k's.
holding ARCH, X, ACI, XOM, ACI, EURN, CRK, PFIX, CDV, BTU thinking of reducing CDV and rolling into CRK
You can go triple leveraged ETFs like TQQQ, UPRO or SOXL as others said. But they have been getting killed this year. Down \~35% and will continue to fall. Same with leveraged Long Term Treasury bonds. Down \~40% YTD In this current economic climate I would go with Oil, and rising interest rate hedge OILU - Up 168% YTD NRGU - up 158% YTD ERX - up 91% YTD PFIX - Up 46% YTD or DIG - Up 87% YTD
Really wish PFIX had an option chain
i'm playing the opposite side of this on PFIX
Adding to PFIX position - order for 50 @ $56.5 , averaging in with avg px target of $58.5 [https://www.simplify.us/sites/default/files/etfs/factsheet/2022-04/PFIX-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-fs-022022.pdf](https://www.simplify.us/sites/default/files/etfs/factsheet/2022-04/PFIX-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-fs-022022.pdf) Essentially a levered short bond play, 5y payer swaptions avg 4-4.25% vs 3M Libor facing BAML, Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley Position Allocation T 0 3/4 04/30/26 Govt 55.83% SWAPTION 05/11/2028 P4.25/3ML BOAML 1.85% SWAPTION 05/12/2028 P4.25/3ML GSX 1.17% SWAPTION 05/11/2028 P4.25/3ML MSX 0.22% SWAPTION 05/11/2028 P4.00/SOFR BOA 0.07% SWAPTION 05/11/2028 P4.00/SOFR GSX -0.01% Cash 40.87%
In I’m it as well, that and PFIX. See what happens.
Look at ETFs like PFIX. That fund is holding long dated put options on treasuries. Meaning it starts going parabolic as rates move higher. https://www.simplify.us/etfs/pfix-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-etf
PFIX has something to do with interest rate hikes
PFIX good interest rate inflation hedge
High inflation is followed by rate hikes, more persistent high inflation requires greater extent/more rate hikes. There are etf that hedge against rising rates, e.g. PFIX, or etf that short treasury bonds like TYO. Retail/consumer banking get benefited during rate hikes too (if short-term and long-term rates widen, i.e. yield curve steepened. Consider XLF, VFH, stocks like BAC JPM and WFC. Last but not least, so your due diligence.
I’m not smart enough to completely understand this, but from my understanding PFIX was created to make money if “transitory” was all BS and they have to raise rates rapidly, Any thoughts?
Interest rate low, PFIX 📉… interest rate goes 🚀🚀🚀🌘, PFIX goes with it. PFIX is like 7 year leaps OTM put on TLT. Hope I got this right…
> PFIX I didnt understand it. :(
Buy $PFIX. I should start buying more, it's a trade setup by Harley Bassman, aka convexity maven, he used his ISDA to set up the trade. Complex trade but he made it available to retail.
From what I can tell PFIX only hedges against rises in interest rates. Is there a version that hedged against rises in inflation.