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CLS Holdings USA, Inc. 2023 CEO Address to Shareholders CLSH
CLS Holdings USA, Inc. 2023 CEO Address to Shareholders
Vroom 2.0: The end game and the value this rough market has created.
Patience and temperament beat more math and prediction
Let's Talk About Lemonade: Analysis and Discussion
$ROOT, Win the Marathon not the 100m and Upcoming Catalysts
Please poke as many holes as you possibly can in my thesis
An In Depth Look Into Peloton – Why This Stock Is The Ultimate Long Term Becky Play
I think CMG is overvalued
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
Mentions
$JSDA Jones just hard their earnings call this morning and gave guidance that Q4 revenue will be up 187% YoY and at an 18 year high. Margins and profitability and increasing and SGA is under control.
SGA the free throw merchant.
Here is the link for Costco distribution: [https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-barcode-group\_retailsuccess-falloutvibes-fromvaulttoviral-activity-7391904510757003266-e0MM?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=member\_desktop&rcm=ACoAACFLX9IB0SgabcvwgRIC13kx9nzE8AQ-QOE](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-barcode-group_retailsuccess-falloutvibes-fromvaulttoviral-activity-7391904510757003266-e0MM?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAACFLX9IB0SgabcvwgRIC13kx9nzE8AQ-QOE) To be honest, the previous CEO was a marketing guys who talked a lot about great ideas but wasn't able to execute. The current CEO (who scaled BRCC in its growth phase) is all about execution. He has narrowed company focus and is set on delivering. My optimism is based on results now, not hype. SGA is down; sales are up. Q3 and Q4 may be double what they were last year. I list reasons why in the original post. If you read their announcements and dig deep into LinkedIn posts, you'll see execution is happening. This will all be plainly stated on the next couple earnings calls, but it's stuff that can be found on the interwebs now.
I hear you. They shed the state-by-state cannabis effort due to high legal complexity/cost and lack of scalability (needed an entire supply chain within each state). They kept the Hemp HD9 portion as it is scalable and less complex. This has led to lower SGA costs and ability for the team to focus on scalable products. What gives me confidence right now is numbers. They have gotten POP Jones in 1,500+ doors in the last 2 quarters, they have gotten Fiest Jones in 1,500+ doors over the last two quarters, for Mary Jones (HD9) they have distribution through major alcohol distributors and have 800 custom coolers in place across the country, they're current rolling out national distribution for Spiked Jones, and most important for me is that they are FINALLY focusing on reduction in sugar and meeting modern consumer demands with healthier options. Also, national Costco distribution coming (confirmed through LinkedIn). None of the above has been true in the past but it is true now. Most all of the revenue from the above momentum is about to be unveiled in Q3 earnings next week and more will hit in Q4. It's already happening, the market just hasn't noticed yet. I'm trying to give everyone the info they need to get in early.
Notes on BYND analysis (by CapybaraStocks on YouTube) as of 2 days ago Technicals: • Earlier this month BYND was trading around $3 with 76 million shares outstanding and a debt of over $1billion. This gave company a valuation of $1.5billion • On Monday it was announced bond holders would cancel over $900million debt in exchange for 316 million shares. Removed previously high risk of bankruptcy, • Enterprise value should have gone up, but issuance of shares was misinterpreted (opinion) as a risk the market would be flooded with shares against low demand. • Why was it interpreted this way? - Rumours of bankruptcy had been rising before debt cancellation. Before conversion, bonds were trading at 25 cents on the dollar - volume was low at these levels. • A portion of bond holders purchased the debt at a big discount that when converted to BYND shares, cost basis was around $0.80. Then immediately cashed out - this is why stock opened at this level following the announcement. • Retail traders perceived this as bearish and went short. • Bond holders loaned out existing shares to them for high premiums. • Cost to borrow BYND shares currently 90% interest per year. • In past week 370 million shares sold short • 400 million shares traded on friday alone • Bond holders that wanted out are long gone. Likely that shorts are retail traders overlooking debt cancellation. • Most bond holders maintained shares (opinion) and loaned them out to market makers due to high cost to borrow - currently 100% per year. Believes this is supported by bond holders having a cost basis of $2.5-$3 and be unlikely to take a loss. • Cost to borrow has gone down from 800% per year to 100% per year - someone is loaning shares out and unlikely to be retail. • they will have to buy back in the market to close the shorts. • Newly issued shares to bond holders were not registered with SEC - only trade OTC and accessed through market makers • If shorts are not hedges and are net shorts, means very few shares for sale at least until bond holders are at recovery prices. • Key to understand what cost basis bond holders have - $900 million debt wiped for 316 million shares - $3 per share (do the math to check this) • Also received convertible notes for $200 million. Will convert at just under $1, due in 2030. Means immediate cost basis is $3 and can go down over time to $2.25 • Shares available for sale until $3 very limited, buy pressure to close out shorts is sky high (might not even be satisfied if bond holders decided to sell out at breakeven - unlikely) • Perfect storm where shorts need to buy to close, paying 100% interest per year until they do. Selling pressure at these prices near to zero. • 80% of the shares not SEC registered and not joined the float • between $2.5-$3 will close very quickly • High media interest, social media buzz, 400 millions shares on friday - entering meme stock territory. Could unlock further gains with strong buying pressure. • Must check volume this week to evaluate worthiness of entry price (currently insane volume) Fundamentals: • Pioneer in plant based meats • Well recognised brand • Went public in COVID and valuation skyrocketed (over $11 billion - investors such as Bill Gates) • Sales since gone down from peak of $500 million per year to $300 million per year • Many customers already gone through curiosity phase • Still has strong brand and loyal following • Positive gross profit margins and improved health benefits of its product • Gross profits of $40 million per year but have $120 million in SGA expenses • Company has vowed to reduce SGA expenses (no specifics mentioned) • Management has hinted to expanding product line to include healthy food whilst leveraging existing distribution and logistics • Currently has $103 million cash +$50 million raised through ATM and warrants at around $3 per share • $200 million in receivables, inventory and pre-paid manufacturing expenses • 3 manufacturing facilities valued around $500 million • Total assets around $850 million and liabilities around $150 million (vendor payments and leases) • Equity value around $700million on liquidational basis - not accounting for its brand or business • Divided by sharecount, around 1.75 per share on liquidation value, not taking into account brand value, patents and distribution business • $1.75 is the minimum BYND can trade is assigning a value of zero to brand value, patents and distribution Thesis Summary: • Fundamentally misunderstood conversion event • Technical setup leading up to potential short squeeze • Strong balance sheet and book value post conversion Sorry for any formatting issues, I’m on mobile
Using my wife’s account (her boyfriend let me) Notes on BYND analysis (by CapybaraStocks on YouTube) as of 2 days ago Technicals: • Earlier this month BYND was trading around $3 with 76 million shares outstanding and a debt of over $1billion. This gave company a valuation of $1.5billion • On Monday it was announced bond holders would cancel over $900million debt in exchange for 316 million shares. Removed previously high risk of bankruptcy, • Enterprise value should have gone up, but issuance of shares was misinterpreted (opinion) as a risk the market would be flooded with shares against low demand. • Why was it interpreted this way? - Rumours of bankruptcy had been rising before debt cancellation. Before conversion, bonds were trading at 25 cents on the dollar - volume was low at these levels. • A portion of bond holders purchased the debt at a big discount that when converted to BYND shares, cost basis was around $0.80. Then immediately cashed out - this is why stock opened at this level following the announcement. • Retail traders perceived this as bearish and went short. • Bond holders loaned out existing shares to them for high premiums. • Cost to borrow BYND shares currently 90% interest per year. • In past week 370 million shares sold short • 400 million shares traded on friday alone • Bond holders that wanted out are long gone. Likely that shorts are retail traders overlooking debt cancellation. • Most bond holders maintained shares (opinion) and loaned them out to market makers due to high cost to borrow - currently 100% per year. Believes this is supported by bond holders having a cost basis of $2.5-$3 and be unlikely to take a loss. • Cost to borrow has gone down from 800% per year to 100% per year - someone is loaning shares out and unlikely to be retail. • they will have to buy back in the market to close the shorts. • Newly issued shares to bond holders were not registered with SEC - only trade OTC and accessed through market makers • If shorts are not hedges and are net shorts, means very few shares for sale at least until bond holders are at recovery prices. • Key to understand what cost basis bond holders have - $900 million debt wiped for 316 million shares - $3 per share (do the math to check this) • Also received convertible notes for $200 million. Will convert at just under $1, due in 2030. Means immediate cost basis is $3 and can go down over time to $2.25 • Shares available for sale until $3 very limited, buy pressure to close out shorts is sky high (might not even be satisfied if bond holders decided to sell out at breakeven - unlikely) • Perfect storm where shorts need to buy to close, paying 100% interest per year until they do. Selling pressure at these prices near to zero. • 80% of the shares not SEC registered and not joined the float • between $2.5-$3 will close very quickly • High media interest, social media buzz, 400 millions shares on friday - entering meme stock territory. Could unlock further gains with strong buying pressure. • Must check volume this week to evaluate worthiness of entry price (currently insane volume) Fundamentals: • Pioneer in plant based meats • Well recognised brand • Went public in COVID and valuation skyrocketed (over $11 billion - investors such as Bill Gates) • Sales since gone down from peak of $500 million per year to $300 million per year • Many customers already gone through curiosity phase • Still has strong brand and loyal following • Positive gross profit margins and improved health benefits of its product • Gross profits of $40 million per year but have $120 million in SGA expenses • Company has vowed to reduce SGA expenses (no specifics mentioned) • Management has hinted to expanding product line to include healthy food whilst leveraging existing distribution and logistics • Currently has $103 million cash +$50 million raised through ATM and warrants at around $3 per share • $200 million in receivables, inventory and pre-paid manufacturing expenses • 3 manufacturing facilities valued around $500 million • Total assets around $850 million and liabilities around $150 million (vendor payments and leases) • Equity value around $700million on liquidational basis - not accounting for its brand or business • Divided by sharecount, around 1.75 per share on liquidation value, not taking into account brand value, patents and distribution business • $1.75 is the minimum BYND can trade is assigning a value of zero to brand value, patents and distribution Thesis Summary: • Fundamentally misunderstood conversion event • Technical setup leading up to potential short squeeze • Strong balance sheet and book value post conversion Sorry for any typos, I’m on mobile
TTM revenue being $6B means literally nothing when Snap’s operating costs for the year are *over $6B.* Nearly 2/3 of Snap’s entire budget goes towards R&D and SGA (Selling, General, Administrative) duties, every year. Snap has never operated in profit, and has basically operated at a loss since its inception. In fact, they came into the 2nd quarter of 2025 with over $250M in losses.
48,000 shares keep adding 3$ in 3 weeks 🚀 Beyond Meat Is Cooking Again – The Next Impossible Rally 🍔🔥 When the People Move Together, Nothing Can Stop the Grill 🔥🌱 Beyond Meat (BYND) is a well-known company for its production and sale of plant-based meat. Back in COVID times, this got the hot prospect, that pioneered the category, a market cap of over $10 billion amidst one of the fastest stock rises registered during that period. Fast forward 5 years and sales have gone from $500mln to $300mln per year, gross profit shrunk to $35mln per year compared to SGA expenses of $120mln per year. This lack of growth and even a 20% sales decline last year has led to its market cap being absolutely obliterated to just about $200mln last week. This led the stock to being the most shorted stock on the market, with CostToBorrow at 800% per year and a short level of over 50%. The reason? A possible bankruptcy in 2027 due to a $1.2 billion debt repayment on a convertible note issued at its high. On Monday, this all changed. And we’re gonna start accumulating at the bottom! Beyond Meat converted $900mln of its debt to equity at a $3 per share conversion price and issued new convertible notes of $200mln to its creditors with $1 conversion prices. All in, Beyond Meat got rid of its debt for around $2.3 per share. Now, the company has $150mln in cash (about a year’s runway), a clean balance sheet and about $600mln in assets (manufacturing facility, equipment, land) at it’s disposal so about $600mln in shareholder equity. At the current price of $0.8 per share, that gives a market cap of $300mln fully diluted, for a company that just last week traded at $1.4b in enterprise value and has $600m in equity on it’s book even if you value the brand at 0. That might have been enough to take a position. Here’s the kicker. These shares that were issued, are not going to be registered with the SEC until mid-December, given that BYND will need to file an S-1 in mid-November which will take about a month to clear. So that dilution everyone misunderstood to be happening right now, won’t be there to alleviate the massive short pressure on this stock. My price target here is 3$-4$ with 2-3 weeks if all plays out according to known variables. Not financial advice and you should follow and do your own DD at your own risk. 💎🤲 When the People Move Together, Nothing Can Stop the Grill 🔥🌱
They shorted at 0.8$ to recover cash on bonds, likely through market makers and once their shares are transferable, they’ll just close out the new short with them. That having been said the previous short amount remains and they do need to buy back in cash. That gap would have needed to be filled as the amount cash wise was really low to get there. Their SGA is lowering quarter after quarter and their gross profit actually rising, so that will cross over at some point. They diluted shareholders meaningfully only once. The business is generating $40m a year in gross profit before SGA expenses, these will go down and margins will likely expand. Yes the revenue went down, but it was worth 20x what it is today when it was up. Size wise, it’s actually just 1.3% post dilution, but that sounds worse)) Previous investments - RUN, MP, SBET, BDTX
SGA is rapidly going down. This thing is going to reach breakeven
Much of its cost is SGA that’s quickly going down around running the company. Because they are still in a start up mentality.
If that hadn’t happened price would have been completely different. It’s doubtful the category will go away. Keep in mind the current business is generating $40mln per year on an owned facility. The SGA as to how to grow it of $120m per year are kind of killing it, but in an acquisition that goes away
Part of their assets is the manufacturing facility which they own. SGA costs are about $120mln now. Gross profit from operations about $40mln. But these can be cut and if the brand is sold at a 10x multiple of gross profit, that’s a 400mln valuation, 600mln in equipment so about a billion valuation seems reasonable which is what it was last week
^ This! Each line item is a part of the overall story of the company. Revenue up/down Why? SGA up/down Why? Answer enough of the “Why’s” and you begin to learn the story.
If they can sustain their SGA, they may actually be fairly valued.
Don't shoot me. I'm not an ape. I don't own any shares. But game company might actually be undervalued if they can sustain their current SGA levels. They also grew net sales an insane amount. I'm genuinely curious how. With bond income, their current earnings suggest it is worth $10B-$11B now. Which is what it's trading at now. Add in a little premium for the meme status and it might be FV or cheap.
Don't shoot me. I'm not an ape. I don't own any shares. But game company might actually be undervalued if they cannot sustain their current SGA levels.
Don't shoot me. I'm not an ape. I don't own any shares. But GME might actually be undervalued if they cannot sustain their current SGA.
retailer.. uncertainty around consumer demand as well as them stating that their SGA increased. I think it’ll rebound (hopefully not as im in puts) but there are issues with it
ROOT did drop like 25 or so points from the year before, so the trend is there. with economy of scale, it would require less SGA per policy. Revenue will grow faster than expenses, and if we assume a long term expense ratio mimicking Geico, then we can see a CR closer to 75%. sure, i might be ambitious, so we can call it 80%, but the thesis is the same. ROOT's ai/automation tech stack removes many of the back-end staff increasing efficiency. Also, i've always noticed that founder led companies are always more efficient on running the company, and thats because they understand their company inside and out. Current Insiders own north of 10% of the company, and these guys are in their 30's. if you want to see efficiency , ROOT will show it. many of these blue chips have been so poorly run that they over-hire staff and have no clue how to be disciplined on expenses, and so you'll see a ton of inefficiencies. ROOT won't have that problem as they are building from the ground up leveraging AI & automation. The end result, you'll ultimately see a tech forward company beating legacy on every metric.
Would really depend where the cuts from. Cogs? Probably bad. But SGA might be super bloated. Despite working in finance, I think its healthy for companies to trim GA HC every few years, bloat just leads to slowef bureaucratic mess.
SGA just signed the biggest contract in NBA history, about $71 million a year
actually there are multiple insurers with a 75% CR. i made a list a while back but KNSL for one has a 75% CR for the long term. you have to understand that ROOT isn't your ordinary insurer. It is doing things that no other insurer has done before, and thats underwriting risk correctly, and getting the best loss ratios from it. Secondly they are bringing down SGA expenses drastically due to their tech stack, ai and automation. No insurer is doing what ROOT is doing in terms of efficiency, and when you get that type of combination, you'll get results like a 75% CR in the long term. ROOT is doing everything better than Geico other than size. i only threw Geico in there to give you an idea, but ROOT will be more efficient than Geico. Geico overhired, and when you build the company from the bottom like ROOT, management can easily maintain efficiencies, without deadweights. When ROOT can cherry pick policies due to risk, thats where ROOT comes in very similar to specialty insurers who are putting forth 75% CRs. its not your typical auto insurer. What ROOT is doing is what TSLA did to the auto industry by removing the middleman and making it more profit efficient. it deserves a valuation multiple, just like how TSLA trades at 30X GM, F but yet has less revenue. No one is comparing TSLA to legacy automakers, when legacy automakers are slowly dying. thats also the exact reason why you shouldn't be comparing ROOT to legacy insurers who are losing customers/growing at single digits. ROOT will be 2-5X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts, and should deserve a valuation multiple due to profit efficiency, growth, and tech. The perfect example is Tsla versus legacy automakers or even HOOD versus legacy brokerages. No insurer is going to do embedded insurance like how ROOT does it. Look at the list of partners that are lining up here. Legacy insurers can't build embedded platforms period. No other insurer is going to be able to cross-sell like how ROOT does it, significantly increasing LTV of customers & margins because of it. as for cross-selling, according to JD Power, if a policy is bundled, the customer will hold the policy for about 30% longer, and it opens the market up by another 37% for customers who only shop for bundled policies. Why that is important? thats because with the 1.4Bish cash that ROOT may receive from CVNA warrants, that could potentially be used to acquire another product front loading growth, and potentially doubling revenue growth. legacy insurers have nothing against ROOT. It will only take a small amount of PIF growth, to bring in strong NI. you're simply not bullish enough.
fun finals watching SGA at the free throw line for 7 games
NBA is just unwatchable man. I thought they stopped James Harden but he has been reincarnated as SGA
SGA decided he wanted to be one of the best players on the planet AFTER he left the college that I root for
These are the kind of moves I like. OKC parlay with SGA over the points. And then ASTS July 3rd Puts.
Need SGA to come through tonight or I’m fucked
fuck SGA. fake mvp free throw merchant mfer
SGA or Tyrese? Who’s coming out on top boys, I need ways to lose money
I see OKC winning here, SGA + Chet/Hartenstein will pop off
Better hope SGA, the flopper, has the refs on his side
BREAKING NEWS PER MULTIPLE SOURCES: Israel launching missiles on Iranian anti-air defenses - possibly to prepare for US bombing. SGA to the free throw line, Haliburton executed as center court.
The Pacers just got hella depth, Siakam, Haliburton, Nembhard, Toppin (all on average solid) OKC got depth too but whenever SGA tanks the team is toast, Jalen can't carry that squad
SGA is a fraud, pacers in 7 is free money
SGA is the MVP of the NBA. OP is just salty bc their contracts are down. Shoulda cashed out when it was at 92%
# I tune in to the NBA finals and it's SGA on the free throw line again
SGA’s boyfriend is actually pretty cute. No cap.
Well, the return on investment is pocketing the insurance company's money after you've earned your original investment back over time and the interest you earn along the way (if you're using a GLWB, not annuitization). I've personally earned over 23% return on my FIA in a given year, and I locked that interest in. If you spread your investment among several insurance carriers, you spread the risk with the SGA. There have been more banks and credit unions that have closed than insurance companies. Major insurance companies (not small mom and pop companies) becoming insolvent is very rare. Just reminding you of 2008. Most insurance companies flourished while banks and credit unions almost collapsed. So, it's not a stretch. Any person who says there's a downside in general is wrong for saying that because you lose a good chunk of the upside potential, and that is a downside, BUT, you are protected from a stock market crash. Hell, you're not even in the market at all. The insurance companies use the indexes as a "measuring stick" to determine how much or how little interest you earn. You are correct, Most consumers are intelligent, and you have to tell them the entire story. My advisors know and communicate to their clients more about the cons than the pros, so whenever someone decides to buy an annuity, they know all the cons, and frankly, less about the pros. And let me be clear, annuities aren't for everyone, but the misinformation or opinions here seem to stem from misinformation or taking advice from bad apples.
NBA going to have lowest views in history when SGA is the biggest superstar
SGA cannot possibly be someone’s MVP
SGA probably gasps and whimpers when he cums on his own chest
SGA over 27.5 pts is a lock
Turner 10+ pts, SGA under double double, Chet 10+ pts
SPY flopping harder than SGA here
SGA deserves a statue if they win the series
Going to be game 7, buzzer beater by SGA win.
mango needs to deport SGA
SGA, PGA, GPA, GTA, pacers in 6
I want them to, but the league loves SGA and hes no slouch either. Good luck my dude
Thunder in 6. Thunders length and physicality will bother Haliburton too much. Pacers guards won't get the easy runs to the bucket they got against the Knicks and their fast paced offense won't bother OKC. That said, the Pacers will be sending different looks at SGA to try to slow him down and he'll be forced to play defense at a faster pace so we'll see how he holds up. Pacers take game 1 and 5
"As long as revenue increase faster than cost the company eventually turns profitable" yeah that's the thing. I'm not sure that's even the case here. Their financials are all fubar so it shard to tell, but the "cost" of running their servers is built into "Operating Expense" not "Cost of Revenue". Their SGA line is very small already. As their revenue has incrased over time, their Normalized Income has gotten more and more red. I would say there's no path to profitability for this company, but digital ocean is profitable, so what gives?? I think they are a loss leader in a field that will never have sticky customers. They're selling shovels in a gold rush at a loss to gain market share.
Bollinger Bands on SGA flops. Conclusion: he's due for a good game next time.
SGA eating himself some Denver Nuggiez
k I'm ngl guys I'm down bad for this SGA Lucy girl
Most of their product sourcing is from India, Vietnam and Latin America which is a 10% tarriff or a 3% net impact on costs of goods sold. The China products is the shoes and accessories part of the business and that is not their core business revenue source. As for SEO you are right it is not the way to win back marketshare but if that improves along with the stores being fixed up then you have a consumer that is willing to spend a bit more than they currently have. Even if it is 10 more people a month per month per store that is a 10\*12\*495\*30 is a few million in revenue growth just by optimizing a local seo page which costs a few thousan dollars. As for cost cutting the SGA as a % of revenues is the lowest it has been in 15 years and it will continue to drop as a % of revenues or stay the same but with higher revenues (more profit). An example of this is how they spend $9 million in warehouse space rent when they could expand their Distribution center and not have to pay rent. So it will cost 20mm to expand and in 3 years pay it off which is savings right back to shareholders.
Put a 104% tariff on SGA free throws in the playoffs
I want Jokic but SGA prob win it since Joker already got a ring and 3 mvps
Good bet once that Canadian immigrant SGA is deported
Nobody is shutting down SGA with modern nba rules you’re delusional as fuck. Dudes going to shoot more free throws than Dwayne wade in the 2006 nba finals
Jimmy Butler & Draymond can shut down anybody & SGA's 'wins above expected' (or whatever) for the Thunder is 20! 20 fucking games! OKC is a middling 50-win western conference playoff team without SGA & Butler is one of those dudes who can just take him away.
Yeah this is complete fantasy. Dort can lock up Jimmy no problem. Curry will get his, but he won't be able to outgun SGA and Chet. Draymond is a literal non factor in playoff ball.
okay but why do I feel like dad dick Curry & Butler are going to ramp it up in the playoffs and find a way to take out OKC in round 2? If Curry & Butler are healthy, it's literally not fair. Both guys take just take a series over. Butler & Draymond will find a way to keep SGA in jail while elite PnR just destroys them on the other side of the ball. These guys got that old man 2nd wind energy.
SGA 40+ pts & KD 36.5+ ASTS/REB/PTS
No magic, simple businesss logic - decrease headcount and SGA expenses, purchase hardware to replace inefficient humans with assets that depreciate (tax write-off).
SGA mvp this season ngl he’s goated 
Apparently SGA was insanely profitable, according to Joe Flannigan.
Thank you for posting your work here. It does a great job illustrating just how bad off some of these companies actually are. Jesse Redmond of Water Tower Research recently posted a couple graphs showing SGA and interest expense as a percentage of total revenue for the larger MSOs and it’s kind of astonishing. Some of these companies have hundreds of millions of debt on the balance sheet and can’t turn an operating profit to save their lives.
Honestly - I don't want to think about what the bottom is with AYR but I am guessing lower. They are extremely debt burdened, SGA expenses are extremely high and they are still searching for a CEO. The previous CEO's response to their debt was something along the lines of "if/when A3 passes we will be able to grow into our balance sheet". Well.... A3 whiffed.... and.......Back to that balance sheet? (Nice card in the picture by the way! I own one myself!)
Oh, so was their revenue higher than their cost of revenue? Oh, it wasn’t? Be real. Their operations are insanely unprofitable before accounting for depreciation and SGA
I asked the same to the other OP that posted about RCAT. But I have a question, so I can be confident on your DD. Where is RCAT manufacturing their drones and where are they getting their supplies from? I’d be worried that being a startup and having COGS being ~80% of revenue they can’t take the higher costs implied by Trump’s tariffs. Additionally having SGA being ~90% of sales worries me as well. As I mentioned on my previous post I already bought some shares to take advantage of the dip that happened on the after hours yesterday. Just want to be convinced on the long term potential of this stock
OP one question, so I can be confident on your DD. Where is RCAT manufacturing their drones and where are they getting their supplies from? I’d be worried that being a startup and having COGS being ~80% of revenue they can’t take the higher costs implied by Trump’s tariffs. Additionally having SGA being ~90% of sales worries me as well. As I mentioned on my previous post I already bought some shares to take advantage of the dip that happened on the after hours yesterday. Just want to be convinced on the long term potential of this stock
The optics look horrible but Macys SG&A expenses the last 3 years totaled $24.8 billion dollars. So $154 million is barely over 1/2 of 1 % of total SGA. But what else did KPMG miss or overlook? Will I be buying M anytime soon? Not a chance.
Not that I can see, margins have fallen a bit, SGA is up. They are only going to have a better performance in Q4 because they paid a debt early and have an extra week in the fiscal year.
Counterpoint. They closed Dec '21 with \~ $3.8 in Cash/ST Investments. They presumably raised much of that when their stock was inexplicably trading in that $50-$70 range. Their last report shows $64M in cash. So they blew through about $3.75B in cash in three years. Their TTM revenue was $670M and their resulting gross profit was an impressively bad -$546M. Throw in the all the other expenses of running a business (SGA, R&D, etc...) and they managed to lose $1.5B. Their cash from operations (not capex or anything else) was -$900M. If they try to raise $1B now with their stock around $2, shareholders are gonna get proper f'd. and probably the next year, and the next. Or I guess they could load up on long term debt at these interest rates. How exactly can they continue to fund this shitshow of an operation with out bottoming out shareholders?
Taxable income is the end balance after deducting expenses. It’s “below” costs like R and D etc. +Gross revenue -COGS =Gross profit -Expenses (incl SGA) = Net Income before tax - Tax = net income after tax or just net income This obviously varies by jurisdiction and type of company but it’s the gist of it, sort of like order of operations. You can have subtotals in there too like operating income but that’s usually the same as net income before tax, it just doesn’t include things like interest expense. If an entity has pass through tax then there just isn’t any tax on the financials. Taxable income is not on the financials usually. It’s on the tax return. It’s usually close to net income but can be different. On the tax return you usually start with net income and then add or deduct various adjustments to convert the financial statement (IFRS / US GAAP) net income to USA taxable income. For example maybe some marketing expenses are included in the financials but not tax deductible so that would be added back. Your overall thesis could be right. I just wanted to correct that one part in case it has flow through consequences for your analysis.
Important question: are we going with disappointed grandma army (DGA) or Sad grandma army? (SGA)?
One thing to note for tesla: Pre-tax income = 8.7b Net income = 13.6b So, about 5b of their TTM income is from tax credits. On the other hand, Volkswagen paid 5b in taxes Another thing is that car companies require a ton of reinvesting into r&d. Operating income to r&d: Tesla: 58% of operating income spent on r&d Volkswagen: 73% of operating income spent on r&d I think one of the biggest factors is scale, though. Volkswagen is a much bigger company. SGA to operating income Tesla: 68% Volkswagen: 132% https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vwagy/financials/ https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/financials/
If you don’t know what SGA is then you shouldn’t be investing in stocks lmao
Why are u so confident in new leadership? I just took a look at their 1Q and your right if they manage to lower SGA by just 40m a quarter they would be good. But that’s only if leadership can do it, so why this leadership?
I don’t like the guy but it has an insane GP. R&D and SGA is what’s killing its bottom line.
Good comment. This stock is diluting shareholders like hell, the debt is high and they are making losses. One positive, their debt is fixed and it will mature in 2026. Can they turn to profit? Why is their expense in SGA so high?
Half of Reddit's SGA is R&D. They could "make money" any time they want to.
Reducing SGA expenses won't do much to be honest, their COGS have been increasing quarter over quarter. Starting from march 2022 until December 2023, here's their COGS as a % of revenue QoQ: 70.89% 75.00% 74.91% 76.24% 80.66% 81.81% 82.11% 82.37% Their SGA kept around 5% the whole period. The source is seeking alpha.
Highly unlikely that no-one at rivian understand they need to be profitable, and that's what the Normal retooling should hopefully achieve by end of year. But that won't save them as even a healthy margin won't cover SGA / overhead. Need to get the R2/R3 to be profitable at volume for long term success. I'm very bullish long term on Rivian - and they've done a great job at establishing their brand rather quickly. But they don't have a lot of room for mistakes or missteps - good news is it should hopefully all come together in the next few year.
Bad investment in my opinion. The company is trading at over twice its revenue and isn't even profitable. The SGA expenses are going to be sky high for the near future and it's in a sector with little moat. If they can continue to grow (frankly, the 9-ish percent they are growing per year is pretty unimpressive given the other valuation metrics and the kind of growth that would need to take place to justify the price) AND can have margins north of 25% they might be a good buy. But those are 2 big "if's" and I think there are MUCH better opportunities out there.
So remove the hyperbole and my thesis simply is: current society has changed mostly for good, but definitely has caused consequences. Obesity, lower T levels, and lower birth rates, etc.. $HIMS has a unique discretionary and easy to use platform - that is its value proposition. Its gross margins are huge and SGA expense is scalable marketing. It continues to grow revenue at a consistent rate of roughly 80% per year. Also have my first double up on it. Results don’t lie. Also, why so uptight when “alphamaledom” is used in jest? Why can’t I look like a bodybuilder, respect my wife, go to the theater, drink beer/eat wings with the boys, enjoy philosophical contemplation, and understand the perspectives of all people? For instance I get why my hyperbole is off putting, but do you see the comedy in it? Much love fellow human.
Posted over summer, still not wrong $HIMS DD I posted this 6 months ago in more serious circles on Reddit and it was not well received since my hyperbole, but I still haven’t heard a counter to it: “ $HIMS - Hims and Hers Technology - look at revenue growth and profit margins. Consistent 20% revenue growth per quarter. Gross margins huge. Not profitable (yet) since most all gross margin is sent back into SGA. Primarily marketing, hence the growth. Once they turn that spend off or down - wow! If you don’t know about the company it is a subscription model for bedroom related products for men/women. They are like teledoc but with the goal of being discrete. Need viagra but don’t want to see your family doc. $HIMS. Have low T and need boosters. $HIMS. Have premature ejac. $HIMS. All on a subscription prescription model. Next step they’re getting into the weight loss drugs that are coming available. Thesis: Our grandfathers/great grandfathers stormed the beaches of Normandy at 16,17,18-30. They fought in Europe, Africa, the pacific, after growing up in the Great Depression. Their future wives walked to work in the sun saving gas for the war effort. They used hand tools to build our modern infrastructure from 20’s-60’s. They had many kids. Look at a picture of these people, 1945 troops returning home. Lean men, women were skinny, happy, tan, alpha male, and goddess women. Now 18 boys don’t know if they can even call themselves a man - might be too offensive. Internet has made men unable to talk to women. Lack of physical outdoor work, soy influence in packaged food, a general lack of activity (Netflix vs. street ball) has physically made our men have less testosterone. The alphas we have work in offices 80 hours a week and need products to keep their hormones since they are not outdoors doing much physical labor. Where does $HiMS come in? Bottom line: TL;DR All these soyboy, betacüç( k), safe space, gender confused, soft, girly man, “men” will meet a woman and nature takes over. Their soft errections will emasculate them and they’ll turn to the quick fix ($HIMS) instead of lifestyle change. The women will be using the HERS products such as anti-depressants because they are sad their men are such soft p’s. Or their birth control because they don’t want to reproduce with a man that can’t change a flat tire or replace a hot water tank. A bit extreme, lots of hyperbole - but prove me wrong. And oh yea…. Superior fundamentals. I see 25x growth as TAM. Thank you for coming to my Ted talk. “ Posted ~240 days ago.
The gross margins have been significantly better and trending up. SGA had been falling significantly. Gaming sales for q4 were up ~10% industry wide. RC investment gains could range from 20M if he just invested in bonds to infinity of he yolo'd calls into NVDA. None of those things are factored into the expected earnings of .29, I could always be wrong but with the information we have available there's no way to arrive at that number
It's so obvious they are going to beat analyst expectations on Tuesday. The margins we have seen this past year and the decrease in SGA costs would easily be enough to push us to .40-.50 EPS. Add to that RC is investing our cash, even if it's just in Treasury bonds and it's going to crush. It wouldn't surprise me if they beat by 100+%
>Luxury makes money though. Look at Toyota stock vs Ferrari stock. Not all luxury stocks are created equal however. Despite a shrinking outstanding share count, GOOS EPS is less than half of what it was 4 years ago. I dont care enough to look through their annual reports to understand why, but over that 4 year time frame their revs have increased about 40% while their SGA has increased about 100%. Ferrari is making more money than they were 4 years ago, GOOS is making a lot less. Until they reverse that trend, the stock is going nowhere.
Wasn't this sub just praising Reaves for his "godly" defensive performance the other night against SGA?
Posted over summer, still not wrong $HIMS DD I posted this 6 months ago in more serious circles on Reddit and it was not well received since my hyperbole, but I still haven’t heard a counter to it: “ $HIMS - Hims and Hers Technology - look at revenue growth and profit margins. Consistent 20% revenue growth per quarter. Gross margins huge. Not profitable (yet) since most all gross margin is sent back into SGA. Primarily marketing, hence the growth. Once they turn that spend off or down - wow! If you don’t know about the company it is a subscription model for bedroom related products for men/women. They are like teledoc but with the goal of being discrete. Need viagra but don’t want to see your family doc. $HIMS. Have low T and need boosters. $HIMS. Have premature ejac. $HIMS. All on a subscription prescription model. Next step they’re getting into the weight loss drugs that are coming available. Thesis: Our grandfathers/great grandfathers stormed the beaches of Normandy at 16,17,18-30. They fought in Europe, Africa, the pacific, after growing up in the Great Depression. Their future wives walked to work in the sun saving gas for the war effort. They used hand tools to build our modern infrastructure from 20’s-60’s. They had many kids. Look at a picture of these people, 1945 troops returning home. Lean men, women were skinny, happy, tan, alpha male, and goddess women. Now 18 boys don’t know if they can even call themselves a man - might be too offensive. Internet has made men unable to talk to women. Lack of physical outdoor work, soy influence in packaged food, a general lack of activity (Netflix vs. street ball) has physically made our men have less testosterone. The alphas we have work in offices 80 hours a week and need products to keep their hormones since they are not outdoors doing much physical labor. Where does $HiMS come in? Bottom line: TL;DR All these soyboy, betacüç( k), safe space, gender confused, soft, girly man, “men” will meet a woman and nature takes over. Their soft errections will emasculate them and they’ll turn to the quick fix ($HIMS) instead of lifestyle change. The women will be using the HERS products such as anti-depressants because they are sad their men are such soft p’s. Or their birth control because they don’t want to reproduce with a man that can’t change a flat tire or replace a hot water tank. A bit extreme, lots of hyperbole - but prove me wrong. And oh yea…. Superior fundamentals. I see 25x growth as TAM. Thank you for coming to my Ted talk. “ Posted ~210 days ago.
Posted over summer, still not wrong $HIMS DD I posted this 6 months ago in more serious circles on Reddit and it was not well received since my hyperbole, but I still haven’t heard a counter to it: “ $HIMS - Hims and Hers Technology - look at revenue growth and profit margins. Consistent 20% revenue growth per quarter. Gross margins huge. Not profitable (yet) since most all gross margin is sent back into SGA. Primarily marketing, hence the growth. Once they turn that spend off or down - wow! If you don’t know about the company it is a subscription model for bedroom related products for men/women. They are like teledoc but with the goal of being discrete. Need viagra but don’t want to see your family doc. $HIMS. Have low T and need boosters. $HIMS. Have premature ejac. $HIMS. All on a subscription prescription model. Next step they’re getting into the weight loss drugs that are coming available. Thesis: Our grandfathers/great grandfathers stormed the beaches of Normandy at 16,17,18-30. They fought in Europe, Africa, the pacific, after growing up in the Great Depression. Their future wives walked to work in the sun saving gas for the war effort. They used hand tools to build our modern infrastructure from 20’s-60’s. They had many kids. Look at a picture of these people, 1945 troops returning home. Lean men, women were skinny, happy, tan, alpha male, and goddess women. Now 18 boys don’t know if they can even call themselves a man - might be too offensive. Internet has made men unable to talk to women. Lack of physical outdoor work, soy influence in packaged food, a general lack of activity (Netflix vs. street ball) has physically made our men have less testosterone. The alphas we have work in offices 80 hours a week and need products to keep their hormones since they are not outdoors doing much physical labor. Where does $HiMS come in? Bottom line: TL;DR All these soyboy, betacüç( k), safe space, gender confused, soft, girly man, “men” will meet a woman and nature takes over. Their soft errections will emasculate them and they’ll turn to the quick fix ($HIMS) instead of lifestyle change. The women will be using the HERS products such as anti-depressants because they are sad their men are such soft p’s. Or their birth control because they don’t want to reproduce with a man that can’t change a flat tire or replace a hot water tank. A bit extreme, lots of hyperbole - but prove me wrong. And oh yea…. Superior fundamentals. I see 25x growth as TAM. Thank you for coming to my Ted talk. “ Posted ~210 days ago.
Its last quarter their gross profit from services was 9.2M. Their launch gross profit was 5.8M. Their R&D was 27M and their SGA was 27M for total operating expenses of 54M. For them to be profitable on space services alone... that would mean you are saying that 45M out of 55M of their operating expense is because of launch services. Idk... seems a bit of a stretch to assume that.