SPR

TomatoSpecialist6879

Oil comms trader expect alternative sources and supply chain to be found and established by July, hence the nonchalant reaction to the SPR inventory numbers. That's why if it's not achieved by July, the market is going to go on daily circuit breakers panic until QE gets officially announced to calm the markets(even though it's already on and keeping the bond markets intact). Reality is each bearish bet is against a multitrillion dollar system, they'll soon find a way to do more fuckery than to let reality meet the market. That's until the powers at hand are in short positions and puts to benefit from the short term bear crash like what happened during pandemic, and the 2022 energy crisis.

Ukleafowner

I'm not going to say this won't all end badly but isn't this situation the exact point of having the SPR?

Poptart_Salad

We're also releasing 9-10 million barrels of oil a week from the SPR

ActivatingEMP

Oil shortages will happen even before the SPR is depleted, as commercial inventories are drawing 3-4 million barrels a week even with 9 million barrels draws from the SPR. Current projections have tank bottoms in the US by mid July

PipelineBertaCoin69

That’s actually an unbelievably unnerving thing to say, I’ll keep my eye on the SPR levels to get my answer as to whether or not I should worry

ZYHUA

US bombing Iran yesterday, Isreal bombing Beirut right now, SPR Oil hit new low and will hit tank bottom end of June, of course AI is not gonna stop while we are in a recession

borkdpasito

Japan shorts oil US buys yen US sends SPR draws to Japan \^ this is propping up the economy. When this breaks in 4-6 weeks, it’s so fkin Joever

Academic_Rooster_886

yk whats funny? DJT, even though he probably wont get us a better deal / will only land miniscule improvements, will come out with some crazy announcement and a flashy presentation of it this week, and oil will crash 30% --> SPR fills back up

borkdpasito

Yep. Front month is now August, which is after the SPR buffer is projected to be gone. So basically there is no guarantee the US will be as generous in a scenario where oil is still scarce

Icommandyou

Imo oil will continue to go up I will go in USO at open. We will be out of SPR by end of June anyway

_reverse

Yeah - SPR drawdown aside, it simply doesn’t provide enough output so we are going to run out of gasoline and diesel anyway.

_reverse

Still waiting on you to cite your source for 40, 150, or literally anything :) My statement about estimated minimums don’t cite the links because, like I said, the actual minimums are not known. They are estimates because no one has ever drawn this low ever. We are in uncharted territory. But we know a couple of things: 1/ drawdowns damage the caverns, 2/ you can’t draw them to zero (we both agree on that), and the max rate of draw is 4.4mmb/d The funny thing about this argument though is, it doesn’t really matter - the SPR is not enough to fully match the uptick in crude exports and the current consumption levels of diesel and gasoline. Those supplies are dwindling and the data for that is on the EIA website.

_reverse

I did read my own link and yes, it is being drawn to 243 with the most recent release of 172 \[1\]. However, notice that both the statutory minimum is 252 and the release authorized during the largest oil disruption in history is 243? Don't you think they'd go lower if they could. The SPR can physically be drawn into the mid 200Mbbl range and likely somewhat lower, but the limit is that somewhere in the high 200s to low 300Mbbl and its drawdown rate degrades with each rapid draw. The last drawdown cost $280m to repair \[2\] and was previously the largest drawdown in history. "Storage tanks, meanwhile, can never be fully emptied. Partly this is because a certain volume is needed to maintain enough hydrostatic pressure to move oil through the system. More importantly, tank outlets are intentionally positioned above the bottom of the tank in order to prevent sediment and contaminants from entering the stream. The residual volume left behind is known within the industry as the “heel.” Combined with minimum operating requirements, it generally means that no more than roughly 90% of a storage tank’s nominal capacity can actually be accessed" \[3\] Do you have a source for your 150 figure? Also, you've now gone from 40 to 150 - that's a big jump bud (but in the right direction at least). References: 1. [https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve) 2. [https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve) 3. [https://info.gorozen.com/hubfs/Commentaries%20+%20Content%20Offers/2026.Q1%20Commentary/2026.Q1%20Goehring%20%26%20Rozencwajg%20Market%20Commentary.pdf](https://info.gorozen.com/hubfs/Commentaries%20+%20Content%20Offers/2026.Q1%20Commentary/2026.Q1%20Goehring%20%26%20Rozencwajg%20Market%20Commentary.pdf) \- note this is covering slat cavern reserves in general, but it applies to the SPR architecture

Resident-Banana-7883

unless rump is willing to literally collapse the SPR caverns they'll be tapped out in July

zerowaitestate

I hear different figures about the SPR. There is an uncertainty range from mid June to August, but that is just the point at which Trump has to get authority to draw down more. Real issue is when you hit about 150 MB remaining, as that starts to threaten military readiness and salt cavern integrity. That is expected late this year at the current rate. However, we should start seeing a spike earlier than that because other countries SPRs should be running dry. Good luck estimating that. This creates additional transport problems that did not previously exist on top of availability. There are limits to how much production can surge in a short time due to the capacity of loading terminals. Also in a shortage you have to pay attention to the possible effect of default swaps. There are a lot of variables in play. I would strongly urge against short dated options; there is just no way you are going to time this train wreck.

floridabeach9

its physically impossible for the SPR to be drained before late July. any article you read saying June is horse shit, or you’re just lying. it can only be drained at 4mbpd MAX. and there is 365m barrels, 40 unrecoverable, so 325m. that if we go at the current rate of 1.4mbpd, it’s mid january. if the rate increases to 2mbpd, its early november.

xAlpharaptor

OP you realize that this is all known by the markets?? It's not a secret that the SPR is down to historical levels.

8yba8sgq

Knowing that Turnip does turnip things, what if there is no problem at all, in the US. The SPR gets leased to Europe with interest while the blockade is on. Then, the US can just settle it and get all the oil back next year, and then some with the interest. The tank bottom could be the exact moment that oil craters to $40. Talk about a rug pull.

amanj41

I agree the market can keep pretending. Actually several macro guys I listen to are suggesting rate cuts are more likely due to deflationary effects of demand destruction from oil price spikes. But a lot of voting Americans do not have large sums in 401ks and care more about food cost and price at pump than stocks. That was one of the critical things 🥭 ran on in the first place. The SPR has been helping soften the blow (not that Joe Byron didn’t do the same thing)

reality_hijacker

Luckily for you, you don't need to buy individual stocks. With the fast track update, you would be buying SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic with QQQ and SPR.

Opposite_Day_9771

My research tells me we’re in an oil crunch by mid-July. SPR oil relief running low. It takes six months to remove sea mines. Facilities damaged or destroyed so it’s going take a while to restore capacity. Arab Sovereign Wealth Funds no longer buying US treasuries and have been loading up on tech. Only problem is that they don’t pay dividends so they have to sell in order to fix damages and pay civil servants. On top of that their revenue stream is mostly dried up due to the war. Is it a pump and dump scheme? My bet is that peace isn’t going to happen because Israel would be vulnerable. Offensive tech is cheaper and faster to make than defensive weapons. This is a fact that wasn’t known before the war. With peace, Iran has the leverage. Iranians now know they can survive and control Hormuz. The macro picture doesn’t look great. Earnings and bookings for Q1 already baked in before the war. Wait for Q2 guidance to know which way the wind blows. No more Petrodollar recycling would make rates go up. I’ve sold lots to protect my gains. What I have left is up 50% YTD. Some non-tech sectors have reasonable prices. I’m hoping they drop more before I jump back in.

SargeMaximus

12% of SPR ? Drop in the bucket

horrible_noob

I was actually looking at Uranium last night but decided against it. Anyway, I had Claude review your DD: I have enough. Here's my read. The macro skeleton is real, but the DD is doing the classic WSB thing: stapling true facts to a conclusion they don't actually support, and slipping in at least one number that's wrong. **What checks out:** * The Iran war and Hormuz disruption are real. As of late May, commercial transit through the strait had collapsed roughly 94% versus the pre-conflict baseline, though it's a "permission-based" / restructured regime rather than a clean closure, and there's a fragile post-April ceasefire. [Windward](https://windward.ai/blog/three-months-into-operation-epic-fury/) * The SPR numbers are basically accurate. A record 9.9 million barrels were shipped out of the SPR in one week, pushing the total to about 374 million barrels, its lowest since July 2024. The "10M/week" and "374M, two-year low" claims are legit. The "3-5 months to legal minimum" extrapolation is naive (drawdown rates aren't constant), but directionally the buffer is thin. [Pipeline and Gas Journal](https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/may/massive-spr-oil-release-drains-us-emergency-crude-stockpile-to-two-year-low) * The hyperscaler nuclear deals (MSFT/TMI, AMZN/Talen, GOOG/Kairos) are real and predate the war. * Structural supply story is real: Kazatomprom guidance issues, Russian enrichment dominance + import ban, decade-plus mine lead times. **What's wrong or oversold:** * **The central premise is the weakest link.** "Hormuz closed → uranium pumps" doesn't survive contact with the actual price action. Spot U3O8 started 2026 just over $80, hit $101.41 on January 29, then sold off to $85.50 by February 5 — and the war in Feb/March pushed it *down*, not up, as investors fled to safe-haven assets, ending Q1 around $83.90. So the exact catalyst the DD is built on (Iran war) historically coincided with uranium *falling*. That's the opposite of the thesis. [Investing News Network](https://investingnews.com/uranium-forecast/) * **"Run from $20 to $100" is misleading framing.** The $20 bottom was \~2016. Spot was range-bound between roughly $63 and $83 for most of 2025 and was "dead flat" on the year. Spot is currently mid-$80s, not consolidating fresh off a $100 breakout. [nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uranium-price-update-q1-2025-review) * Oil and uranium don't substitute. Oil is \~zero US power generation; it's transport. A Hormuz oil shock doesn't directly bid uranium — the DD hand-waves "when gas-fired generation gets squeezed," but a closed strait doesn't squeeze US natural gas (the US is a net gas exporter). The energy-security narrative for nuclear is real but it's slow-moving utility/policy demand, not a war-driven spot spike. **The actual bull case** (which the DD buries) is the better one: long-term contract prices have been grinding up — from about $80 to $86 — and sit $8-10 above spot, with utilities under-contracted. That's a structural, multi-year re-rating story. It's just not the "Hormuz closed, yellowcake szn, buy calls" trade the post is selling. [nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uranium-price-update-q1-2025-review) Net: the facts are mostly real, the narrative is a non-sequitur. It reads like someone who is correctly long-term bullish on uranium reverse-engineered an urgent catalyst out of an unrelated oil crisis to justify near-term options. Treat the structural thesis seriously; treat the "nobody is pricing this in" urgency and the implied spot-price spike skeptically. Not financial advice, and I'm not your financial advisor — but if you want, I can pull the current CCJ/DNN/UUUU valuations and contract-book details to pressure-test the equity-specific claims.

LarryStink

They will be right at some point. The conflict/stalemate loop will break and we resume strikes at some point. There is no deal either side would be willing to agree to because they are both hardlined on the only 2 factors that matter. SoH and uranium. Oil inventories have less than a month until there is serious panick. China has yet to dip into their SPR as they have been forcing commercial inventory usage first, and completely shut in naptha and other oil derivatives to focus on gas and diesel distillation. When those inventories run out they likely buy at market price on the ask. Gold, bonds, and stocks all at risk to fund energy needs.  Markets can out sprint reality but they cant out run it. 

amanj41

Am I retarded for buying the oil dip? Something ain’t adding up unless we just dumping the whole SPR

SergeantThreat

Strait still closed, SPR draining as we speak. Oil inexplicably going down. I don’t see how being long term bullish on oil isn’t the obvious move.

trumpdiego

Just to recap: there’s no tariffs anymore, we owe $200B in tariff revenue, but he made $400B in stock trades so we are actually gucci? But Iran war cost another $100B and we are draining SPR at tank empty in a month rates, but it’s cool because everyday the war ends and we pump another $100B. China undercut our AI by 20x pricing with equivalent models, but their stock market sucks balls because they didn’t manipulate it hard enough. Everyday we pump to newer highs because nothing matters and anonymous accounting groups can claim whatever earnings they like with no penalty. Average consumer hates themselves can’t afford to eat out and will be replaced by ai robots in 3yrs. So ya, you could say things are going pretty good.

TheoryInttro

Because mid June is when the SPR maximum drawdown [is two weeks or three weeks behind us. ](https://www.hfir.com/p/public-death-by-a-thousand-headlines) We're already fucked beyond belief, but we have at least three more weeks of pump before the reality of the SPR being emptied out two weeks ago sets in.,

Juggernaut06

The SPR Release was for 120 days so mid July. And for up to 172m barrels.

BucDan

It's in Trump's and Bessent's benefit to short oil for the rest of May, so when the EIA chart updates, it'll affect the Fed Reserve's inflation numbers because it's a 2 month lagging number. We all know he's filling oil orders from SPR with the help of Japan's short. When we roll into June, he'll likely ease off of it and let oil hit $100+ again, then repeat. He can only do it for about 2 more months before SPR is low, but my guess is he's willing to restrict exports as worst case scenario and screw everyone else over to refill SPR.

TheoryInttro

No, but he's shorting oil using margin and the SPR and made the mistake of visiting an SPR oil storage facility which is empty except for the toxic fumes. This is what your brain on petroleum fumes looks like.

Provolone-Jones

The oil data is fucking bonkers. Demand for oil has INCREASED. 10-20% of global supply is OFFLINE. The SPR is 2 weeks away from RECORD LOWS. Cushing hits tanks bottoms at the END OF JUNE. Iran continues to FIRE MISSILES AT SHIPS IN THE STRAIT. But oil is trading UNDER 90 FUCKING DOLLARS. And we have an endless stream of retards who believe this administration’s Soviet style propaganda claiming oil bulls have it wrong. It is just a matter of time until it all comes crashing down.

IndependentUsual7444

Arent the SPR draws very bullish stocks short term

Boston-Bets

"soon"? It would be MONTHS, at the current withdrawal rate, for it to be emptied. Once the MOU is signed, and Strait opens, the US will re-fill the SPR at \*lower\* price than what it sold.

SergeantThreat

The SPR will be gone soon. Then what?

Boston-Bets

We all knew this was going to happen. It's just a matter of when. The Iranian's blocked the Strait thinking that that was their big global chokepoint, but didn't (likely) anticipate the US blockading THEM from selling Oil, post-Ceasefire. US using the SPR to keep global oil prices stable, while the Iranians see their main revenue source dry up. I guessed that things would go this way, once Iran opened up their internet. My guess, announcement after Friday close.

jrex035

The market is fully delusional. We're on track to lose more than 1 billion barrels of oil production this year, probably closer to 2 with how poorly everything is going with the negotiations. Global stockpiles are being depleted at a record pace and will need to be replenished and probably grown after this crisis, increasing demand over the short to medium term. Anyone talking about a return to $60 oil is smoking crack. >I think those prices are being held in check by the combo of SPR releases and TACO memories. Too many people got burned in March. That's all part of it for sure. As is the constant stream of fake news headlines and rumors about an imminent deal which are being coordinated with deep pocketed players dropping huge shorts (whether that be the BOJ, Treasury Dept, or just Trump allies getting insider trader info is irrelevant). The result is a cap on prices that has dropped trading volume on oil to *below average* in the midst of the worst energy crisis in history. >Oil names are ludicrously mispriced if oil stays above $80. Even at that price we could see some of the smaller names double. Yep, FCF is going to be absolutely insane on most oil equities for the foreseeable future, which they'll use for stock buybacks and juicing their dividends. It's an incredibly easy trade, just annoying as these equities sell off with every "peace deal near" headline too

selesnyaTroll

If anyone's waiting it out to get better terms, it's Iran. Pretend to negotiate to avoid being attacked on the weekends while the massive SPR draws become impossible to maintain.

creemeeseason

I believe this is correct. The market is pricing in lower prices for oil in the near future. I don't think that will change until we see a meaningful spike in oil prices. I think those prices are being held in check by the combo of SPR releases and TACO memories. Too many people got burned in March. I wanted to play it with calls, but the duration is becoming a problem and I'm thinking holding shares is the way to go. Oil names are ludicrously mispriced if oil stays above $80. Even at that price we could see some of the smaller names double.

TheoryInttro

The big spike hasn't happened yet, due to SPR releases. Physical inventory bottom hasn't hit, and so far everyone is pricing in that it won't and that the Strait will open before it does. Which may be the case, but there is a hard limit on how long the reserves will last and with Ukraine blowing up russian capacity on the daily that limit's getting shorter.

RandomRocketScience

10MM barrels weekly SPR drains have completely masked true price discovery. Once the SPR stops flowing at records amount, we will see where the market actually prices things.

RandomRocketScience

All price targets are just guesstimates. We have 10M barrels a day of reduced supply, and we need to balance and Demand and Supply through price. So far SPR releases have disrupted price discovery. I cant tell you what price leads to that amount of demand destruction, but $115 a barrel was not nearly enough. Im mostly referring to estimates from JPM and GS, this is a screenshot of JPMs oil forcast. Notice how the worst case they are estimating is full opening in july, which seems implausible at this point. FT headlines a couple weeks ago were estimating $200, but I cant find them right now. https://preview.redd.it/tw0jc6zm3t3h1.jpeg?width=1224&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f265273bb929100d5579d8650edaff9a430edaf1

Stuckinthesandbox

Friendly reminder Deal: oil down No deal: also oil down Bombs: oil down Record SPR drawdowns: believe it or not, oil down

Opposite_Day_9771

Based on what we've witness, do you really think a signed piece of paper is going to be honored? Emergency oil from SPR is drying up. Tankers are stuck (traffic jam) and mines take six months to clear. The oil and chemical facilities are damaged or destroyed. Chips are made in East Asia including Micron. The safe bet is to buy oil majors when oil price drops below 90 bucks. Sit back, collect the dividends and watch the world burns. Do not buy any instruments with a time factor. Short term is unpredictable but long term is crystal clear. Another strategy is just watch Israel to figure out what's happening. Ignore the noise.

Icommandyou

It will probably never happen but you and I should sell the day we are dangerously close to running out of SPR and WTI is trading at $90

RandomRocketScience

Honestly the oil market aint pricing in shit. We are days away from tank bottoms at cushin and we are lower than 2 weeks ago? SPR will be at lowest level in decades by now. We should be trading way higher to achieve the 10M in demand destruction required. Everyone is pricing in an end to the conflict and instant resumption of oil flows. We should be trading way way higher, $110 WTI at least. More like 150-200 to actually balance supply and demand. Either we rip up violently somedayas the market realizes this wont end soon, or maybe Im just wrong :)

Provolone-Jones

API reported a -9.1 million SPR draw despite the holiday. Nevertheless, oil will be down cuz why not

Stuckinthesandbox

I’m looking forward to tomorrow where we get a new record SPR drawdown and oil subsequently drops 5%.

TheoryInttro

You absolutely can't and that's why this will be a disaster of unimaginable proportions; Bessent and 🥭will make sure the US Treasury is his seventh bankruptcy. Price suppression with shorting only works until the delivery date rolls around and 🥭already emptied the SPR so Bessent can't settle physically.

Provolone-Jones

The government’s ability to suppress oil prices stops when the government runs out of oil. We’re two weeks away from the lowest SPR inventory since the US started filling its SPR. Commodity traders simply did not anticipate how unbelievably stupid 🥭 and Bessent would be.

Provolone-Jones

Oil still $89. 🥭 is about to sell the rest of the SPR at flash sale prices.

TheoryInttro

Mid June and out. SPR running dry and about 2.8B barrels are stuck in transit because you need oil to enter the pipeline before it can exit.

No_Economist3815

When does Treasury start to tap diddies SPR?

Both-Improvement8645

I’d say reality catches up around then, with oil shortages and SPR draws really hitting and a trend of larger than expected inflation numbers. Just gonna chill and then puts

whodey84

Don't worry, Gas is staying high all summer as everyone refills their SPR's

Provolone-Jones

Elevated energy prices encourage increased production to offset the lost supply. Elevated energy prices also cause demand destruction, which allows the economy to adjust to the new reality. The EIA data shows very very little demand destruction, which is due to record SPR draws each week and manipulated futures prices. Once the SPRs hit tank bottoms, there is literally no more oil to offset the supply loss and no more oil to short the futures market with. Absent demand destruction before then, we are essentially going 200 MPH into a brick wall. The economy will be unrecognizable when that happens.

tinydisaster

I had three scenarios, 1/3 weight each. 1) Trump does nothing, SPR continue drawdown. 2) boom escalation. 3) chicken out. In 2/3 of those scenarios oil is forced to be priced higher and domestic production is more valuable. Now I’m bagholding oil stocks and producers. At least it’s sorta an AI hedge but I didn’t enter well.

whodey84

thats the fun part, gas stays high all summer as everyone refills their SPR's

jrex035

This week WTI was slammed down from $107 a barrel on Monday to just $97 a barrel today on the same "final deal is near" headline, despite it being false. We're depleting the SPR at a record pace and rapidly drawing down US commercial stockpiles of oil and refined products with oil at *less than $100 a barrel.* Apparently they're gonna keep manipulating oil prices to keep WTI capped at $100 a barrel until we hit tank bottoms and shoot to $150 a barrel or more overnight. That's the funniest part about all of this, higher oil prices (and by extension higher bond yields and lower stock market indices) are the only thing that would actually force Trump to make a deal. The longer they're able to keep oil prices artificially low, the longer the crisis will continue, and the worse the damage to the global economy will be. It is what it is.

aabbcc_gei

stupid algos & npcs have been fooled bigly every 2 wks ☝️🤓 now lets wait for SPR runout end of june to early july ☝️🤓

No-Insurance100

It won't matter for another few months because the world is still living on SPR releases

jrex035

Record crude exports, record SPR releases, and *no end in sight* is megabearish for oil equities obviously

Ok_Persimmon9849

nah we drew a record amount from the SPR, the only thing keeping the oil prices down are tweets. Which means when they go back up they're going up WAY more than they would have otherwise.

Ok_Persimmon9849

SPR going to be drained soon, it's going to be a disaster of unseen proportions when it does. I don't know why they are letting this moron do it.

jrex035

This is now the second Wednesday in a row in which oil prices fell and indices climbed on yet another "deal is near" fake news pump. I'm sure its purely coincidental that Wednesdays are when EIA releases oil inventory data which have been showing the rapid depletion of US stockpiles. Funny enough, today news story dropped just 10 minutes before the EIA release. That EIA release revealed the biggest weekly crude draw in history, with commercial stocks falling ~7.9m barrels (waaaay above the 2.8m barrel estimate) and the SPR draining by 9.9m barrels, which is a record pace of more than 1.41m bpd and puts the SPR at the lowest levels since July 2024. At the current pace we'll be at new multidecade lows by the end of June. This kind of "deal is near" news story used to drop oil 10-15% in a matter of minutes, now they're lucky if they can manage -5% for the day. Why? Because storage is the last buffer we have before flat out shortages begin, and were rapidly depleting storage as we speak. Tick tock.

Puts_on_my_port

Thoughts on the report? Not going to lie I cringed when I saw that we went through 2.6% of the SPR last week.

Poptart_Salad

Uhh 17.8 million barrel draw, 9.9 million barrels from the SPR...and crude oil is down? Can't tell me that market isn't manipulated right now.

EntranceHaunting

🥭 having a firesale on the SPR. Could have gotten billions more. Buy high, sell low

Icommandyou

Crude and WTI are artificially kept low by releasing SPR and looks like we will be completely out of it soon

selesnyaTroll

API Inventory Moves 05/19 * Crude -9.1 million (exp. -3.4 million) * Gasoline -5.8 million * Distillates -1.0 million * Cushing -1.4 million * SPR actual -9.9 million Maybe we can have the IRS investigate where all the oil has gone now that they can't investigate Trump or his family ever again.

No-Insurance100

SPR actually stands for SPY Petroleum Reserve now considering how much they've burned through just to keep the market from crashing

dbd209

Imagine what will happen when the USA Government can't manipulate WTI and it just rips. Probably a month or two away, until the SPR reserves get too low and the market goes bananas.

jrex035

It's unreal that we're draining the SPR to the lowest level in decades, at the fastest pace in history, with oil trading at $100 a barrel. Say what you will about Biden, but at least in 2022 we weren't subsidizing cheap oil for the world because of a stupid war that he started and had no plan on how to get out of

Delicious_Put_5857

the government uses 100 million barrels of the SPR to suppress the price of CL futures: this is good and im a genius the stock market goes down 0.4%: this is bullshit algo manipulation the likes of which we have never seen

dansdansy

Wonder how close we'll get to the SPR running out

KeyReaction892

My understanding was that current oil prices are being held down with SPR releases and swapping futures contracts. Given there is only so much oil that can be released the price of oil will continue to go up till we either open the strait or it goes so high we get real demand destruction in the us. Seems like we have bumpy road ahead unless US caves soon.

natalie_merchant_fan

Remember when people worried that if the Strait was closed for too long, the global SPR release wouldn't be enough to bridge the gap until it reopens?

Boxofmagnets

The current U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is not large enough to sustain the country for long in a major supply disruption. It holds roughly 384–415 million barrels in 2026—far below its 714 million‑barrel capacity—and recent or planned releases could push it even lower. • SPR inventory (early–mid 2026): Between 384M and 415M barrels, depending on the week.• Weekly data shows 384.10M barrels as of May 8, 2026. • Broader 2025–2026 estimates place it around 411M barrels. • Maximum capacity: 714M barrels, meaning the reserve is only ~55–58% full. The U.S. consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day. Even if the SPR were used alone—which it never is—400M barrels would cover only about 20 days of total U.S. consumption. In practice, SPR releases are meant to supplement, not replace, commercial inventories and current production

MaybeOnFire2025

Do you know how little 53 million barrels is to our country? Also, the SPR is just that -- a *strategic* reserve, i.e. something that should be stockpiled until there is a war or equivalent necessity. The fact that administrations (not just this utterly reprehensible one, but others as well) will tap it for declining-returns P.R. value is a good barometer of how dicey things are, and how desperate they are to change the perception of things.

selesnyaTroll

It absolutely means something. The consumer facing sectors have been on downtrends for months now. Tech/AI hasn't been as affected so they've been mooning still. But either this war needs to stop and let oil/fertilizer/metals normalize so that these other sectors can rebound... or inflation keeps going up, shit hits the fan again and the tech/ai drop with the rest. Which will happen? I dunno, I ain't a wizard. But we are certainly running out of SPR oil to release and fake headlines to post.

AndItsThetaAgain

WSB has this really weird narrative going on where they think asset value increases means stocks are safe I think nobody told them *hard assets* And now they’re so busy repeating it that there’s no fixing it Secondly, they’re seeing ‘hedge’ activities ‘breakdown’ but they don’t seem to understand that is preemptive of a correction not confirmation that there won’t be one Literally they’re chanting’ this time is different’ Finally, they’re reading VIX while trading 0DTE and selling volatility thinking VIX tells them their risk but it’s actually the red flag because it shows there’s literally zero hedging. Finally, there’s zero hedging by institutions because like buffet, they’re cash. Which is why the dollar is so strong against the yen even as Japan is not just threatening intervention but promising it You don’t need to hedge if you’re cash. You just buy what’s on sale. Retail is trading momentum on light volume in the highs and they’ve been trained to think a 6% drop is extreme fear. Interest rates tell the truth. Biggest risk right now are bonds selling out while everyone looks at 🥭 the guy that never pays his bills openly say he’s trying to devalue the dollar to weasel out of paying debts The elevated level of fraud is the cash grab before the party ends and dislocation of assets from reality of the books is momentum trading before the crash We’re topping. Hardest part is doing nothing and not being tempted to touch anything. June coincides the yen risk, oil futures finally catching up, SPR running dry, and we see that Warsh winked about interest rates and said outright he’s going to shrink the balance sheet aggressively aka quantitative tightening and we’re dropping the unemployment part of the dual mandate because when we finally revise those numbers there’s no way to pass Hold on babe It’s about to get ugly

Provolone-Jones

Believe it or not, the entire world, including China (largest SPR), will run out of SPR by October. Thankfully, the market priced that in back in 2008.

ActivatingEMP

I think most people don't realize that most of the inventory isn't accessible. The SPR can't go past 150M without risk of permanent damage, and most of the commercial inventory is in-line or tank bottom. We're going to fly past 2022 lows within a few weeks

IndependentUsual7444

Who needs a SPR anyway

KeyReaction892

This is the answer. Governments around the world have SPR they are dumping from. Additionally they can do swaps that are returned at a set price in the future. They can’t do it for ever but right now it’s very much being manipulated down.

Provolone-Jones

At this point, I think 🥭 hates oil bulls so much that he is going to keep oil around $100 until we drain the SPR and then ban exports, just to fuck oil bulls one last time.

schmellthat

As other commenters have suggested, the world is already seeing some. As to why it’s not worse across the global economy: IEA SPR. If those begin to run dry and the war is still on, rationing by price is likely the best outcome.

_TheOoze_

Agreed. There's just too much liquidity sloshing around for anything to slow this market short of a protracted global crisis, and Hormuz just ain't it. Yet. You know China is dipping into that SPR, and they won't be willing to do that forever. Xi and orange will strike a backroom deal on the timeline for capitulation against Iran.

raindrop-flipflop

I work in an energy trading hedge fund. The journey time for vessels transiting from MEG (Middle East Gulf) via Suez to EU is ~25 days. So for the first month it appeared business as usual - vessels were still on water headed our way. Then the flow stopped - EU sheltered ourselves using SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) and commercial stocks - basically the stuff we already had lying about. We are drawing it down at an unprecedented rate - the worst is yet to come.

Optimal_Rent_4729

Claude responded: This is a creative contrarian trade idea, but there are several mechanical and macro gaps worth stress-testing. This is a creative contrarian trade idea, but there are several mechanical and macro gaps worth stress-testing.  First, the political logic has a sequencing problem — US export restrictions would be a dramatic and politically costly unilateral move that would enrage allies, breach WTO commitments, and likely trigger retaliatory measures; Trump has historically preferred tariffs and deal-making over supply controls, so the probability of this specific lever being pulled is arguably lower than your thesis implies.  Second, the spread arithmetic deserves scrutiny: a WTI-Brent spread of $50+ would be historically unprecedented and would trigger massive arbitrage flows, refinery switching, and SPR releases long before that level — market structure would fight the trade hard.  Third, you're also implicitly short US shale resilience; WTI weakness at scale would crater capex and production within quarters, which would itself tighten the global balance and compress the spread back.  Fourth, the hedge isn't as clean as presented — both contracts can move violently and in the same direction on geopolitical headlines (a strike on Iranian infrastructure, for instance, spikes both), so your "hedged" book could see simultaneous drawdowns before the spread logic kicks in.  Finally, the options market is probably already pricing a vol premium into crude spreads given the geopolitical backdrop, meaning the carry cost of holding this position through a prolonged period of thesis non-realisation could erode that estimated 5-10% max loss figure considerably.  The core intuition — that US domestic political constraints could bifurcate the global crude market — is genuinely interesting, but the trade as structured relies on a very specific policy outcome in a very specific timeframe, which makes position sizing discipline arguably more important than the directional thesis itself.

Rubricity

Because delaying effect, oil shock will only present itself at worst form after months of settle in, plus, we have SPR that cushions the crisis. So pretty much the safety mechanism created since 1973 does work to teach people stick their hand into sand as if nothing is happening and keep investing in tech due to "strong earning report".

dansdansy

It'll stay like this until the market is forced to confront a concrete problem. Data releases and big news like "SPR about to run out" will drive moves. Until then we drift up and ignore all bad.

CarRamRob

Oil traders generally trade in the here and now. And for WTI and Brent, it hasn’t been bad with all of the extra SPR releases and boats taking 40 days to reach them to offload. So it’s understandable things are volatile but not crazy high. It’s next month that things get nuts for the rest of the world and shortages will start to bid those prices up. Not to mention, prices are being kept down by Axios news leaks every single time they get higher. The administration is just jawboning the price down to keep people from committing to longs. But eventually it’ll break out even faster. Unless you think 13% of oil being offline is sustainable.

CarRamRob

Elasticity is working against this problem here. Oil is very elastic no matter how much people talk about demand destruction. They are always thinking of other people’s flights/vacations, or how those people will get to work will have to change, not their own. What is really the difference here is that the largest SPR release in history (400 million barrels worldwide, 172 in the USA) would be chewed up in 57 days at the minimum rates is suggested of 7 million barrels a day. And considering the lag effects, is why the prices haven’t been crashing. That doesn’t mean there is still dire consequences in the energy world afterwards though. They released 1/3 of reserves. You can only do that twice more, which is 4 months before things go mad max, and I have no reason to think the Iranians are going to not pursue to push that as far as they can.

Careful_Response4694

Inherently due to the average SPR size of 90 days of consumption, it takes 2-3 months of sustained shutoff to see any impacts. And then on top of that you'd need another 2 months to exhaust on the water supplies. So I am only taking small and long term hedge positions as well as positions in US oil equities. I don't really want anything bad to happen. I just want to ensure the best outcome under all possible risks, which requires that I hedge career risks (I graduate my PhD and enter the job market in 6-9mo) and family wealth risks (all my family members are net long the tech markets/QQQ with leverage or high beta).

Provolone-Jones

I am choosing to believe that the bond market is going to force the market to wake up. I thought the record crude draws would cause it to wake up, but apparently nobody gives a shit that we’ll drain the SPR by September. Market has gone mad.

pickleback11

I'm honestly thinking a lot of people are just doom and glooming it on social media to get likes. Like I get that it takes awhile for supply chains to break but it's been "tomorrow" for as long as I can remember now. The freaking US SPR is like barely below when Biden left office. It might even be higher now. They're hardly tapping it compared to a few years ago in like 2022 or whatever. I dunno I just think something doesn't seem right 

Provolone-Jones

The US is going to COMPLETELY DRAIN the SPR in A MATTER OF MONTHS. I am crashing the fuck out.

Delicious_Put_5857

>API Inventory Moves 05/05 >Crude Oil -8.1 million (exp. -2.8 million) Gasoline -6.1 million Distillates -4.6 million Cushing -1 million SPR -5.2 million crazy stuff

selesnyaTroll

>while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. Market moving on the concept of an agreement for the 20th time in the past month. On a related note, the API numbers this week - * Crude Oil -8.1 million (exp. -2.8 million) * Gasoline -6.1 million * Cushing -1 million * SPR -5.2 million