SPR

betterbackitup

is oil dumping due to SPR releases?

taffy_laffy

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401096519 >Tuesday, 01/09/2024 >In its threat to the key shipping corridor, which the Houthis say is to block vessels to Israel in support of Hamas amid the Gaza war, so far, oil has been untouched, Reuters reported on Tuesday. >It is plausible, albeit unsupported thus far, that Iran, concerned about the freedom of its own oil shipments toward China, has taken measures to ensure that tankers remain unharmed in the Red Sea, responsible for 12 percent of the world's oil shipments, including those from Saudi Arabia. >Even in Tehran, Iran’s leaders know how ‘sacred’ oil is and to push the world’s leaders into conflict over its shipment, may be a step too far amid an escalating proxy war. Oil to 100+ soon, max pain for america when summer hits and biden cant release the SPR as he already emptied them to drive down prices. 📉📉📉

trust_it_bb

American savings at decade low. This is Biden giving s stimulus after exhausting SPR to lower prices. No more stimmies from here on out. Spy 390 on the table

AP9384629344432

> If geopolitics suddenly creates a political reason to increase US production again, that would get priced in. It would get priced in for futures contracts 9-12 months ahead. But in the meantime, surely you agree oil prices go to $100+ for a few months? It's not like oil demand suddenly craters while we wait for supply to come online again. Like, let's go back to February 22nd, 2022. Let's simulate what happened all over again, but this time, no 180M barrels released from the SPR and China is completely re-open. You're telling me that won't be an incredibly rally for energy stocks?

AP9384629344432

To be fair, with Russia, all the important exports continued as normal, they just got shifted around dramatically. Oil/gas/refined products went to countries like China and the various 'stans). E.g., suddenly a country like Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan became a huge exporter to Europe. It was a weird situation where on the one hand a dozen countries were sending billions in weapons to blow up the military of the other country and were simultaneously buying up their oil, aluminum, grains, etc. With Israel/Iran, it's a bit different. Iran could very well be totally shut out from the global economy including its oil (which is not the case currently), there could be attacks on all the adjacent oil producers, shipping through Hormuz straight ground to a halt. In a more involved war I'd expect Israel to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure. (This has not happened in Russia until the recent few months with Ukrainian drone strikes) US producers will indeed increase their output, Gulf countries will tap the accelerator with their new found spare capacity. But you will still get a spike in oil prices that causes a major global inflationary impulse. There is no enormous SPR release lying in wait. It's not like US production suddenly increases by 20%. It will, in like 6 months. 6 months of a sustained oil rally = go full degen on energy longs.

Dwittster

man i spent DAYS like actual DAYS of my life on the obsidian SPR i hate that game

silas_p_silas

Would be cool if we had refilled the SPR when crude was at $60/barrel, but since we wanted to keep gas prices artificially low we have less than half the reserve we did two years ago. Calls on gas prices this summer. Regards about to be buying heelys to zip around town lmao

cocoa_croissant

Production is still close to peak ATH levels. I'm looking at weekly ending US stocks excluding SPR. >Also these are those one-way suicide drones that can't be turned back. Like flying lawnmowers. Don't think they can just turn aruond. Haha. Well then let's pray they get shot down before they arrive later tonight.

HFABamaFan

I’m glad our SPR is positioned for a worst case scenario…

AP9384629344432

Why am I bit worried about energy? - Crude oil is tightening up a bit. The good news is OPEC has in theory built up spare capacity. But there's no massive release of SPR barrels available like before. - Iran: If administration starts sanctioning Iranian oil for realsies, not turning a blind eye, there goes some capacity. Or there could be more state-sponsored piracy of commercial shipping, threatening the nearby shipping corridors. [And by the way, it appears drone strikes from Iran have begun] - Roughly 10-15% of Russia's refinery capacity has been taken offline by Ukrainian / partisan drone strikes. This was not the case in 2022, when Russia continued to send out its oil / refined products regardless. Attacks directly into Russia were far more limited back then. Russia was the third largest refiner of oil products, so this is a big deal. I expect it to continue the more the ammunition/weapon supply issue for Ukraine worsens. Russia is also continuing to degrade Ukrainian gas storages, which Europe relies on too. - Unlike in 2022-23, the Chinese economy (biggest source of oil demand growth) was still recovering from a shutdown and had weak industrial demand. This is a big reason why commodity prices didn't really have a great run in 2023 as everyone was predicting at the start of '23. Now we have to cope with a [Chinese economy that appears to be bouncing back](https://twitter.com/shehzadhqazi/status/1777828275407950244) based on recent PMIs / commodity movement / auto data. And demand this whole time has been growing from India and other emerging markets. China at the time was also doing massive refinery runs which helped with the crisis at the time. But now they need it for their domestic uses. - [Refinery growth](https://i.imgur.com/AwBjj3d.png). It's difficult to add more refinery capacity in the short term. [Exxon is adding more capacity in 2025](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-08/exxon-on-track-with-uk-refinery-expansion-just-as-others-shut-capacity), but at the same time 3 major refineries are getting shut down in Europe. Anyone have any good data on here on global refinery capacity trajectories? BUT: - Unlike 2022, natural gas situation is *much* better. So you won't see a European 'energy crisis' in the winter (in fact, I adamantly argued against the likelihood of one the past 2 winters anyway, if you look through my old posts in 2022/3). I'm more so thinking of a general uptrend in crude combined with specific refined product shortages. Including diesel (extremely important for trucking), gasoline, shipping fuel, etc. - I don't think we're going to see simultaneous supply shortages across the entire commodity complex (e.g. agriculture), which will mute the inflationary impulse. - This shouldn't derail the path of monetary policy *that* much given this is like the definition of a transitory shock.

taffy_laffy

there is only 1 play that is guaranteed. it's about the us SPR, strategic petroleum reserve. Presidents unload the reserve to drive down prices during election years. Trump or Biden will fill it up after the election. By next year oil will be above 100. Load up the bus on XLE, XOM or any other oil producer. XOM 130 leaps, XLE 105 Leaps, or if you want to gamble, which i personally will after the sell off today and the fuckery in the middle east - go for 125 XOM monthlies, 100 XLE monthlies. regardless, once the US starts to reload their inventories, oil is going to fly. Plus Saudi needs higher prices to fund their development, and OPEC cuts will keep prices elevated as everyone follows Saudi lead.

Ghost_Pains

I think the only part of TA that’s remotely real is the same stuff that everyone would be looking at before going into a trade. Volume trends, price trends, market sentiment, historical PE ratios, moving averages, RSI, etc. charts in isolation with a bunch of lines drawn on it like a 4 year old are literally useless. The amount of money made off of selling courses to people about “pin bar analysis” is far more than anyone who actually implemented it. Pretty sure they’ve done studies and shown most traders don’t beat a coin flip bot. This is what this buffoon sent me supposedly showing his “50%” increase in his trade since December. Meanwhile anyone that has a single ridge in their brain can check a chart and see that SPR is up \~23% since December. It’s worth mentioning that being up since December is not even noteworthy because the entire market has been running hard since November so it’s literally expected. Also basically every airline stock has been performing well in the same time frame… This goober was up a whole 4% before news broke that he wasn’t even paying attention to that even made the trade worth anything. https://preview.redd.it/4hj8z0wnj2uc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d027785c87c3d3102d1b8ebd3126cc98dc23b6ed

Ghost_Pains

TA dorks are a special kind of idiot. Some goober at my job actually made a whole slack channel to share his “market analysis” and shared his success with a trade on SPR. He bought in December and shared a screenshot of his chart on March 5th blighting his gains. I asked if he was closing his trade and moving on and he said he wasn’t taking profits and was riding the swing trade with a price target of 45-55…(27% over the analysis average and 22% over the highest analyst target). Yesterday he started plugging his weird channel again so I asked him which part of his TA led him to believe that SPR shares would pop 10%+ in a day off of Boeing acquisition news, and this goon absolutely had no idea what I was talking about. Dude literally had no clue SPR is in talks to be divided up between Boeing and Airbus. Delusional goober thought he was a wizard because he drew some lines and didn’t even follow news about his trade.

Basedshark01

In order to clean itself up, Boeing pretty much has to buyout Spirit Aerosystems, right? How do you lose by buying $SPR?

dragontamer5788

SPR draining was a good thing. Fracking is up all across the country, because Biden opened up more room in the SPR. We're making far more oil than ever before.

Basedshark01

In order to clean itself up, Boeing pretty much has to buyout Spirit Aerosystems, right? How do you lose by buying $SPR?

phooonix

He's not even claiming it's a conspiracy. It is all very much out in the open. When Biden opened up the SPR to reduce gas prices, was that also a conspiracy?

pinghing

We'll see soon enough how the gov will fill the SPR and we'll see just how little it will actually affect oil market prices.

Puzzled-Raspberry-32

Oil is such an easy play right now: US still has to fill up the SPR Iran and Israel might blow up into a regional war OPEC supply cuts Green agenda will dampen domestic production literally can’t go tits up

Basedshark01

In order to clean itself up, Boeing pretty much has to buyout Spirit Aerosystems, right? How do you lose by buying $SPR?

neofatalist

AMD ticket should change to SPR for Stay Poor Regard

PuzzleheadedTear5969

So let's say we hit 100$ oil by june and OPEC adjusts their cuts to stabilize the price about there. Now let's say Biden decides to use SPR to bring prices back down, you don't think OPEC will retaliate and cut their supply again? You think they are just going to be like there's nothing we can do after a massive supply cut campaign that was designed to bring oil prices up? Even if this happens, just wait till it blows in his face and he loses his campaign because of it lol. And btw everyone cares about long run prices, no one cares even if Biden could bring the oil prices down short term if he does it using SPR and only to look good on November. The domestic production must be increased, there's no way around it.

frcdfed2004

SPR restock was cancelled…oil is jumping cause like half the world is having major elections this year and mexico stopped exports for april and expected for may. everyone scrambling to replace those bbls with other similar grades. its mostly coming out of guyana right now to cover US refineries which is then pushing wti into europe. ohh and russia down about 10% of production and refinery capacity from drone attacks.

carvethegnar

The oil market is incredibly balanced at the moment. Between opec cuts, SPR due to be refilled, and very little of the geo political risk priced in over the last quarter, we’re going to march right up into the mid 90s to low 100s by Q4. If something more provocative happens in Middle East or Russia, hold on to your hats…

rickyw591

Puts on gas guzzlers. Especially once the SPR runs out.

JudgmentMajestic2671

Just to prove your point even more. He is cancelling replenishment since it would completely fuck him before the election. The cracks would bust wide open. https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1775594764575928383?t=OJ7XQw3N-ppl0FyW8Yno5g&s=19 The SPR wasn't meant to help cover a president's failed policies. It was created to primarily cover war time oil needs, serious natural disasters and major economic disruptions. Remember Trump replenished the reserves to all time highs. Biden should be counting his lucky stars Trump did that.

Myburneraccount2023

The play is to buy $SPR (Spirit Aero) on buyout hopes, then re-enter $BA after.

2skillets

Maybe it is. Or maybe Spirit Aero is. Boeing has over 10000 planes active right now. There will always be malfunctions and let’s hope and pray they beef up their QC and inspection services so there are no more near misses. Boeing isn’t going anywhere. I’m betting on SPR myself.

scarr34

But I guess you're correct, and I was wrong to say the inflation was by design. Rather, they knew their policies were inflationary but didn't think it would be a problem. Then, when they realized MMT is wrong and inflation is/can be a big problem for an economy they did things to fight that inflation (interest rates, SPR, etc) which have lowered the rate of inflation. However, looking forward, trillions of dollars in new spending are coming (infrastructure bill/chips act/ largest single year budget in history, etc) combined with reports of rate cuts which could and probably will cause more inflation.

WildTadpole

I mean it actually tanked demand while production was increasing so not in the sense that required SPR getting drained. Its being used to manipulate inflation figures for political theater to give Brandon a chance at re-election, in any other country we would call this corruption.

WildTadpole

Your first sentence says it all. It's not a tool intended for taming inflation, monetary and fiscal policy are. Since Brandon didn't have the balls to push through any meaningful changes fiscally and has been pressuring the Fed to go back to lower rates his only choice is to abuse SPR which is intended for disasters and war. In any other country this would be considered corruption.

Valuable_Pianist9506

That is NOT what the SPR is for. It IS for exactly what Biden did…

Super_Tone_8597

Then go where ever you feel comfortable and protected. This sub really is about investing, and as it relates to that the SPR is being used as intended based on all observations and even the main post.

yolocr8m8

The SPR releases absolutely have an impact on speculation, and the oil market. The timing of the release announcements, etc…. You think that’s done by accident?

3pinripper

So…calls on SPR? Got it. It’s up 123% in the last 6 months so let it ride baby

Super_Tone_8597

It’s really best you take this to r/politics. As far as the SPR, it’s being used exactly as intended.

DLun203

I think the Biden admin said they’d start re-filling the SPR when oil hits ~$70/barrel. But it’s only grazed that price point a few times in 3 years

lwrkeys

No that’s insane that’s not what the SPR is for, when you dip into it that’s a sign gunshots going sideways.

Euler007

The SPR are already at half of what they were before the midterms. Even just letting go of half of what's left would be catastrophic, and OPEC could just cut production to match and leave the price in the 70-80 range. After the SPR hits critical levels it pumps even higher. Every economy in the world is banking on cheap gasoline to juice their economy and keeping inflation low.

Prize_Shallot880

Actually they can as we are still above the mandated amount of reserves, but that is not in the plan right now. Congress has already MANDATED selling another 140million barrels through 2027, Thius administration is trying to kill that to hold the oil. Any discussion about returning the oil to the SPR needs to include the FACT that 2 or the 4 sites have been undergoing maintenance and were unable to take in oil just yet.

Logistic_Engine

https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/biden-harris-administration-continues-secure-good-deal-taxpayers-replenishment-1#:\~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20D.C.%20—%20Today%2C%20the,Strategic%20Petroleum%20Reserve%20(SPR). truly a regard worthy of this sub. Lol

breemo88

Did we not resupply the SPR from the sanction waivers on PDVSA from the Barbados agreement/hostage deal with Venezuela? The sanction waivers expire April 18 2024, we have the leverage for a direct purchase of oil at below market rates.

Super_Tone_8597

Dude wants to complain about inflation. But also wants to cry about what ever is being done to address it. Shouldn’t we rather refill the SPR after inflation is brought under control?

Fangslash

this is no secret and not tradable. The fundamental reason is US shale is expanding at an unprecedented rate, which means SPR is pretty much irrelevant. This is very different for the 80s where US sources oil from a variety of oil, like Canada, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela

LUNA_underUrsaMajor

Maybe democrats shouldnt have blocked a bill that would have filled the SPR all the way up when oil was really cheap in 2020

BleachedTaint

Remember when Trump wanted to make big oil purchases for the SPR when it was cheap and everyone had a cow calling it a “big oil bailout”. They all were a bunch of morons.

-TurboNerd-

I'm confirming that you are correct that he is using SPR to reduce inflation numbers, but you are misunderstanding the motivation. Inflation on it's own is an unfortunate bi-product of shitty monetary policy arguable over the past 12 years. Current potential upticks in inflation though are resultant from elevated oil and gas prices is being artificially driven by OPEC, Biden is trying to counter that using the SPR for the reasons cited above. This is macro-economics.

SyrianDictator

Biden is the current President of the Republic. In the last State of the Union, he basically said without a direct order that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates. Although I have no evidence, I believe the release of the SPR was the first thing the Biden Administration did to reduce inflation before allowing the Fed to raise rates. Now, the reserve has been depleted, and any purchases will only increase oil prices and inflation in the near term. This was the wrong move imo. I don't care who the president happens to be. If another person did the same and not Biden, I would be critiquing them.

SyrianDictator

This has nothing to do with Trump or Democrats or w/e else. All I'm saying is that Biden's team is using the SPR to help hide inflation numbers and will continue to do so through the election, proving up the market until after this election cycle. This shit ain't Fox News or CNN. Fuck Republicans and Democrats. They are all the same bullshit ass party driving wedges between the public and fake ass social policies so they can stay the political elite.

SyrianDictator

It has nothing to do with the R or D. Never has. They are all the same team when you boil it down. Tell me how, in the 60s, everyone just switched teams, and the public acted like the parties switched. IDGF who is in office. In simple fact, SPR was used to hide the dire inflation numbers.

schneidro

Why is there even a SPR then? Lmao

UseDaSchwartz

Republicans: Use the SPR, gas is too high Also Republicans: no no no, it worked. We have to stop him and then bitch about it. You idiots will complain about anything either way.

memory--

No one is "hiding inflation" - the administration is using the SPR as intended to reduce inflation and political-based attacks on our economy. Sorry you don't like it. What's Biden supposed to do, let a bunch of dictators in OPEC buttfuck our economy?

SyrianDictator

I'm not arguing that the SPR was used outside of its scope. I'm arguing that it was also used to hide inflation, and we will keep seeing it used for that up until the election. Rather than deal with the inflationary issue, the current administration is kicking the can down the road.

memory--

You mean he is DOING HIS JOB?! The **Strategic** Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is intended to serve as an emergency buffer to alleviate oil shortages and provide economic and national security during unexpected disruptions in oil supply. The purposes and instances when it's considered appropriate to use the reserves include: * Supply Disruptions: The SPR can be tapped in response to significant disruptions in oil supplies, such as those caused by natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes affecting oil drilling and refining operations), geopolitical conflicts that block oil supply routes, or other global events that drastically reduce oil production. * **Economic Stability: (PAY ATTENTION HERE. You could learn something)** Releases from the SPR can be used to counteract rising oil prices that may lead to economic instability or to prevent severe spikes in gasoline prices. By increasing the supply of oil, even temporarily, governments can help moderate fuel prices and **inflation**. * International Obligations: Countries may decide to release oil from their reserves in coordination with other nations as part of international agreements to ensure global oil market stability. This collaborative effort can be crucial in managing global oil supply disruptions that have widespread economic implications. * Operational Testing: Occasionally, oil may be released from the SPR to test the system's operational readiness. This ensures that the facilities and logistics for distributing the oil are functional and effective in an emergency.

chi_guy8

lol. It’s literally EXACTLY what they are for. The *Strategic* Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is intended to serve as an emergency buffer to alleviate oil shortages and provide economic and national security during unexpected disruptions in oil supply. The purposes and instances when it's considered appropriate to use the reserves include: - Supply Disruptions: The SPR can be tapped in response to significant disruptions in oil supplies, such as those caused by natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes affecting oil drilling and refining operations), geopolitical conflicts that block oil supply routes, or other global events that drastically reduce oil production. -*Economic Stability*: (PAY ATTENTION HERE) Releases from the SPR can be used to counteract rising oil prices that may lead to economic instability or to prevent severe spikes in gasoline prices. By increasing the supply of oil, even temporarily, governments can help moderate fuel prices and *inflation*. - International Obligations: Countries may decide to release oil from their reserves in coordination with other nations as part of international agreements to ensure global oil market stability. This collaborative effort can be crucial in managing global oil supply disruptions that have widespread economic implications. - Operational Testing: Occasionally, oil may be released from the SPR to test the system's operational readiness. This ensures that the facilities and logistics for distributing the oil are functional and effective in an emergency.

SyrianDictator

The current justification for the SPR is to limit disruption and the U.S. to keep its petroleum obligations even when a disruption occurs. https://www.energy.gov/ceser/strategic-petroleum-reserve#:~:text=The%20Strategic%20Petroleum%20Reserve%20(SPR,under%20the%20international%20energy%20program.

SuperLeverage

Well it is a strategic use of the SPR so it seems totally legit.

bdvfgvvcffc

They’ve drawn down about 22 days of US average daily consumption. The SPR depletion has very minimal impact on the price of WTI.

Uniball38

No, SPR has been increasing since august

chi_guy8

This is all well known and well documented. From your own SPR numbers you can see that the reserves started being tapped in April of 2021 and then started being replenished in July of 2023. all these numbers have been known the entire time. The reserves were used exactly as they were intended to be used, breaking the back of energy inflation and now the stocks are being replenished.

hbtheduce

They have been a few very small purchases to refill the SPR. But overall your thesis is correct. Biden administration flooded the market to keep prices low. They can't sell anymore without authorization from congress.

yolocr8m8

I thought it was common knowledge they dumped oil from the SPR before the mid terms.

dkrich

The best part will be watching Biden drain the SPR to keep gas prices low

Deep-Deal5249

If BA buys SPR, their stock gonna take a hit.. Shorts on BA

pmekonnen

aricle from March 1st Boeing (BA.N) is in talks to buy its struggling former subsidiary Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), as both companies try to solve persistent quality problems and contain costs related to 737 MAX production, an industry source familiar with the matter said on Friday.

pmekonnen

On March 1st, they commented that they are in discussions to merge. SPR also commented that they are working with Airbus to divest their Ireland location, which manufactures wings for Airbus. The CEO of SPR is a former VP of BA. The BA CEO also commented in January, after the Alaska Air incident, that selling SPR in 2005 was a bad decision and would like to see it back in the fold. the merger discussion did not just start last week but had been ongoing

pmekonnen

I think one or two announcements: SPR may sell Airbus business, or the full buy out

fuckaliscious

Boy, that's a lot of factors that should be cratering US inflation, but yet inflation persists. With all those factors lowering prices, why has inflation stayed north of 3.0%? Could it be you don't mention any items going up in price? Like insurance, which impacts the cost of everything. Powell even spoke about it. I'm not saying Gas prices will cause some spike in inflation, but it's likely that they'll keep CPI above 3.0% each month. Therefore, not reaching the Fed target and therefore unlikely to be rate cuts. Gas prices are just starting to rise and didn't drop nearly as much as they normally do in winter because winter in the US was so mild. Takes a bit of time for the price increases to work their way through the economy. Gas prices should continue to rise through the summer driving season for the factors I previously mentioned. Especially with Biden pledging to refill the SPR within a year, that really raises the floor on oil prices. Not sure where you're getting your housing info. "The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a **5.5% annual gain in December**, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month." https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-5-5-annual-home-price-gain-for-calendar-2023--302072989.html Unless something breaks, the Fed has no reason to cut rates near-term. If they don't cut by early Q3, which seems doubtful now, they'll probably not cut until after the election, so they don't appear to be favoring anyone.

fuckaliscious

I don't think Powell was planning on Iraq cutting oil production, or Ukraine blowing up Russian oil facilities or Biden saying he'd refuel the SPR within a year, or IL refinery being offline for weeks for unscheduled maintenance because all those things happened in last week or so. We went from having a surplus gas inventory compared to the 5 year average inventory 6 months ago which was lowering gas prices to a very low gas inventory. All of that drives up fuel prices, fuel prices impact the cost of everything. It would be highly unusual for inflation to come down with fuel prices going up. If inflation doesn't come down (and nothing breaks), the Fed has no reason to cut rates.

RegularHovercraft

I bought SPR while it was 15% down, and then rumours went round that Boeing would buy it and it popped up again. Sold.

longGERN

Ya no shit lol. SPR hasn't been $42 in three years and with planes falling apart everywhere 😂

Jeff__Skilling

> I've questioned for years why BA and SPR are so high despite negative book value, negative earnings, and no end in sight to the bleeding, let alone the terrible quality they offer customers. Welp, negative earnings and negative book value come from GAAP-related accounting conventions - looking at their historical financials, they generated ~$3.4bn in OCF in Q4 2023A alone, so I'd say that's a pretty good financial reason that 1/2 of a global duopoly hasn't seen it's share price drop to $0

generouscookie1981

Definitely not CVX. US producers are still drilling like crazy. If you have it, you can hold but don't add (what I am doing). Crude price ticked up a tiny bit but a chunk of that is supported by SPR which is steadily increasing again.

pmekonnen

I lost 26% on this trade but bought SPR. I'm hoping that Boeing will buy SPR at a 30% premium so I can recover my losses.

Key-Tie2542

I've questioned for years why BA and SPR are so high despite negative book value, negative earnings, and no end in sight to the bleeding, let alone the terrible quality they offer customers. The response is always a nonsensical one about being a government subsidized duopoly, since this really only validates their bonds not equity investments.

doe-poe

Should I sell my SPR stock?

RegularHovercraft

I don't do metrics greatly, but I do look out for opportunities. Boeing had some bad news a few weeks back with a panel blowing out. The panel was made by SPR. Over the next few days both share prices dropped, so I bought an equal amount of each. Boeing have just indicated that they intend to buy SPR and their share price jumped 15%, so I sold out on that. Boeing won't fail - it has a tonne of military contracts as well as the civilian stuff. They will rectify the issues and the share price will go back up. BA dropped from 260 to 200. My guess is that it will return to 260. Also, thinking to give GOEV a pop. They've slowly started producing vehicles now for the commercial market. Also, I have a private investment in Aptera, but they're open to another round at the moment. They have a distinctive vehicle with a clearly unoccupied niche market. 1000 mi range and they charge themselves up in the sun. They will start selling late 2024. Am possibly looking to buy one when they become available.

jbasket444

I follow offshore drilling pretty closely, and am bullish on the sector in the long term. But short/mid will be rather limp dick. The stock is in the attempt to form a bottom, which typically can take a little bit. The trend hasn't reversed, it's "stabilized", and in consolidation period. RIG torques upwards and downwards as a stock, so, if it's not going up, then it's a shaky hold. I don't expect it to break above 6.5 anytime soon, especially with lowered guidance. The contracting period has been in a bit of a lull, and reactivation + running costs are always going higher than expected. The contracting lull proof of concept is clear with the Atlas getting a low rate for an 8G rig. There is enough sidelined capacity + cold stacked drillships that have to get contracted through for utilization % to get high enough for materially higher day rates. I think there are still 10 rigs sidelined. In addition - due to shale outperformance, more prolonged high prices for crude haven't materialized yet, and won't until after the 2024 election (I bet my left nut Biden will SPR release SPR if CL gets to 90-100). Going forward, I expect oil and oil related equities to bottom in August approximately, in which a big bull will go forth. This target is flexible. I will be heavily overweight offshore. Offshore contracts start flowing (pun intended) after half year of an oil spike (IRR gets justified/goahead), so this aligns with the timeline current run we are seeing The June and Jan calls are aggressive at this time. Catalysts are in pipeline, just not now, and have been delayed. DO has hinted some cold stacked rigs should get contracts - but that's medium term, and won't get covered by the June call, maybe within the Jan call. Also - RIGs debt load guarantees they will \*not\* be repurchasing shares anytime soon. That is years out.

jeff4001

I went with SPR, bought back at the beginning of the pandemic, the added more during the last turmoil, I believe this is way undervalued.

Jabroni212

You should’ve got in before close on Friday but Boeing(BA) is in the talks of buying Spirit(SPR) and whatever they choose on doing it will either skyrocket SPR or it’ll dump completely. I covered both of my plays so I have 3 option calls strike price @$40 and 2 option puts strike price @$28.5. Im not sure of when they’ll announce the decision but if it’s after the bell on Monday you’ll still have a chance to get in on this play. THIS IS A GAMBLE PLAY, PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK. More risk=more reward.

OcelotDense7287

SPR was my best buy so far. It was an obvious buy at 16 dollars for someone with a commercial aerospace background. Stock was dumped due to lack of inflation pricing control with Boeing contracts/strikes. The price reflected that however the key here is that BA simply cannot afford for SPR to go under or suffer from poorly priced contracts so they to revise their pricing

Dry-humper-6969

How much would SPR price go to?

Such_Coin

So SPR gets bought back by BA, the same company who told them to cut costs and skimp on quality control, and they go up 15%??? 

postachioo

SPR Boeing buyout

JGWentworth-

Well I guess my SPR calls are ITM now cool

postachioo

SPR buyout Ba

cow_grass

SPR???

generouscookie1981

Doesn't mean much. If anything it'll induce more production. Plus SPR is slowly growing again. That means some of that excess demand can back off if needed.

Dang3300

This case will be cited for years to come if this decision is not reversed The historic ASSASSINATION of Spirit Airlines: First they entered into a proxy war, drained the SPR and caused the rise in oil prices Increasing energy costs led to an increase in prices of goods and services since every industry uses energy as an input This led to record inflation which made the Fed raise interest rates to their highest levels in decades ULCC airlines like Spirit that operate on an efficiency model rather than a scale model were crippled by high oil prices and borrowing costs When they tried to find a way out of this using the only option they had, a merger with another airline, the corrupt clowns at the Biden DOJ decided to fight them in the courts and block the transaction What a sick joke!

Key-Tie2542

We've got garbage zombie stocks (negative book value, negative operating income, tons of debt, no hope of every getting out of it) that stay at medium or even high prices. Stocks like SPR and BA. And we see other stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, COST, WMT trade a ludicrous valuations compared to any dcf analysis using Treasury Bonds as discount rate. The SP500 has gone to the moon without fundamentals to back it. EPS are below 2021, projected growth way lower than it had been then, the theoretical discount rate way higher, but SP500 at ATHs. DCF analysis of the SP500 shows way overvalued compared to bonds.

Independent_Tie_4984

If you're feeling bad about your trading: I bought Calls on CARR yesterday (-64.55%) I bought Puts on SPR yesterday (-44.76%) and I sold 25 March $12 MSOS calls this morning. (-28.19%) (fortunately they're covered) and I bought one 0DTE QQQ 426 Call as an experiment (-47.51%)

ErinG2021

SPR…not playing this…but will find out if the bad news really is all baked in already or not….

Alfa-Case

SPR puts

coldg45

SPR Puts? Or will it go up like Boeing?

workinguntil65oridie

I say this as a guy with like 80% of my portfolio in WTI bull futures. There's alot of capacity that can be just brought back by opec. US shale is still going full bore and the basin is frakking nonstop. The SPR has been tapped so hard, but US hasn't made any real efforts;just token refills. Europe hasn't been hit by massive long term cold and therefore natgas reserves are good, nuclear is popular and oil isn't being used for heating. For all these reasons, oil is being pressed down. It's being sold off hard recently, i never thought I would see a full on war in the middle east, a war in europe and oil below 80. But hey...now I have

MICKYxKNOCKS

SPR calls...

Gemini_Of_Wallstreet

Turns out Alaska Airlines new the door plug plane had pressure issues but decided to ignore the warning signals and fly the plane. SPR is down 6 points MoM. It was most likely their fault. Boeing is just gonna deflect responsibility. 

digitalradiohead

Biden refilling the SPR 

mouthful_quest

I’m holding. Conflict in Midde Earth and Ukraine. SPR needs to be refilled. If we go into a bull market rally, oil tends to rally as well. Oil also acts as an fear trade in the event of a recession but only for a short while. Plus xom gives me nice dividends