SPR

QFGTrialByFire

I think its about a week to go still and then also it has the SPR. So id say they are ok for a few weeks or so? The problem is even if they reach a deal those ships wont start movibg for at the best 2 weeks from now. The problem is will it cause stagflation (ground invasion would) or will it cause recession (deal would). If its recession and energy use drops then those energy inexes will be not as good.

SassuWunnuROM

Fair, it is a pretty wide definition/term. Would you disagree that the U.S government (or any other relevant government for that matter) and various financial institutions are trying to suppress crude futures? I think they are, if they weren’t they would be stupid (far more than they usually are). To a certain extent this is (publicly) true such as with the SPR deployments.

tachyonvelocity

[My totally downvoted comment a week and a half ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1sdvfw0/comment/oeodo1e/?context=3): ever since, SPX +5.4% "I guess most people are still stuck in the 1970s, where oil shocks did have an effect on oil consuming US where there was no shale or SPR or any car efficiency regulation, where oil made up 17% of US energy generation. Today? US global exporter, oil intensity of US GDP is 60-70% lower, meaning the same oil shock is now 70% less relevant even IF the US wasn't an exporter."

Ok-Piano8789

they'll just actually deliver the barrels from the SPR, or maybe even just not even do that cuz they dont care about rules and such

Competitive_Corgi_12

Front-month (CL/Brent 1st) can be down even with SoH traffic \~-90% because the marginal price-setter in the prompt contract right now is “probability + timing of normalization,” not today’s physical scarcity. 1) Paper is pricing a non-zero “deal / reopening” path, and it’s very headline-sensitive The last 1–2 weeks have repeatedly seen: rallies on escalation/blockade headlines, then sharp givebacks on “talks could resume / Iran wants a deal” type remarks (see ANZ 4/14: WTI gave up gains late after Trump said Iran wants to “work a deal”). That optionality compresses the front month most, because it’s the contract most exposed to “reopen next week vs next month.” 2) stress is in physical contracts 3) Buffers + policy flow (SPR) mute flat price, even as the system is stressed The market entered with buffers; SPR releases and “oil on water” delivered in March bought time (MS 3/30; “oil at sea” depletion dynamics also discussed in JPM 3/27 and the 3/17 note). 4) Demand destruction / macro-risk is being pulled forward into the prompt barrel With refinery run cuts in Asia due to crude availability (MS 3/30: +2–2.5 mb/d Asia refining curtailed; JPM notes runs down materially), the immediate crude bid can soften even while products blow out. 5) Microstructure/positioning: de-risking and vol control often hits the front first When vol spikes, systematic de-leveraging and discretionary risk reduction tend to sell the most liquid point (front month) even if the fundamental story is bullish. (General market microstructure; not explicitly in docs.) Net: the tape is effectively saying “yes, the physical situation is ugly, but we’re trading the distribution of outcomes.” If the market’s implied path shifts even slightly toward “talks resume / partial reopening / workaround flows (Fujairah/Yanbu/Iran exports) continue,” front month sells off hardest even though SoH traffic is still massively impaired.

legbreaker

Everyone is betting on “nothing ever happens”. They are pulling out every stop to make sure that shortages don’t become real by doing the SPR release, diverting oil through pipelines and allowing Russian oil sales. But the reality will catch up eventually. By end of May factories will start closing from physical oil shortages. The timeline to getting this actually fixed has a real deadline. But the market is still pricing in that it will get solved before those dates.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Another week, another "offer". I'm sure this time it will be different. Also, the US is draining its SPR reserves right now while trying to supply oil. It has almost used up half of its reserve since the war started. I'm sure it will somehow be able to continue to do that for more than a month, because it will take a month for the first Hormuz ship to arrive.

altonbrushgatherer

I don't know if this post will result in an echo chamber or not but I 100% agree with you. There is a disconnection between what I think is going on the ground and oil futures. Compared to 2-3 weeks ago, what has changed? Oil traded at the same price, VT was lower, traffic through the strait was probably higher. Now there is no traffic as far as I am aware. China might be entering the engagement in a more meaningful way. Iran is doubling down on their demands. Make no mistake. The US could win against Iran militarily. But it would be a Pyrrhic victory and one that I believe would be a pivotal moment in the decline of America. The Iranians know this. Their single goal is to cause as much pain as possible and they just happen to be located next to a major artery of the world economy. I do not think blockades or dropping bombs will cause this engagement to end in the short term. I believe that the resolve of the IRGC is greater than what the market is pricing in. This is the moment Iran has been preparing for for decades, not a weekend, in contrast to the Trump admin. The SPR release is expected to end June-July. We are already mid April. So that leaves us maybe 2 months? The oil shock is already starting to build however. Multiple airlines today alone have announced that they are cutting routes (e.g., RyanAir, United Airlines). Friday's CPI announcement was through the roof but "below market expectations" so stonks only go up. Tweets and TACOs can only hide the oil deficit for so long.

Trader0721

Feels like crude will have a lid on it until this SPR release is done…the strait being closed isn’t enough to take this thing parabolic

floridabeach9

but Dump is a fkin idiot, he doesnt care about positioning the country better AT ALL, or else he would be investing in solar/renewables and he would have filled the SPR before attacking Iran.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

These negotiations were literally the last chance to bail with still a chance to recover quickly, before we hit the next level of the oil crisis. These last weeks, we were still getting a steady flow of oil from the oil tankers that were still at sea. But the last one is about to arrive and we won't be getting any flow anymore. The US has now used more than 40% of its SPR oil reserve, and is soon gonna have to slow down. May and the high usage season for gasoline is around the corner. It will take large oil tankers 5-7 weeks to arrive once the Strait reopens. And about 4 weeks for the smaller ones that can pass through Suez. We are about to enter the next level of the oil crisis pain.

Macready123

you guys have the SPR, no?

Impressive-Manner-89

Sell it to the US for SPR

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Oil could get even more fukt in the coming weeks. Last tankers that made it past the Strait are about to unload. We were still enjoying a steady flow from ships still in the water. May is the start of the season high for oil and gasoline use. 40% of SPR oil reserves have been used so far, and will have to start to slow down. Ukraine has been wrecking major oil terminals left and right in Russia. Repairs of damaged refineries still have a long way to go. Unless they quickly open the Strait right now, somehow find the location of the mines quickly, and get the oil on the fastest speed boats possible, oil is about to hit a new level of pain.

Playboi_Jones_Sr

Which is why WTI futures are currently sitting at 88 and not 50, there is obviously a rebalancing of supply and demand levels in the short term. But nothing that suggests we wouldn’t be able to function at-capacity. Market makers aren’t sitting back and going “gee wizz, I wonder if the US is gonna blow their SPR and run out of oil, I think I’l wait and see what happens!” You would see futures above 130 if this was a realistic scenario.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

The US has already used more than 40% of its SPR oil reserves so far in this conflict. We're hitting a point where we'll have to start reducing what we use from the reserve, so no we are not gonna be functioning at full capacity and not normally.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

The US has already used 40% of the SPR oil reserve so far for the Iran War oil shortage.

tachyonvelocity

I guess some people are still stuck in the 1970s, where oil shocks did have an effect on oil consuming US where there was no shale or SPR or any car efficiency regulation, where oil made up 17% of US energy generation. Today? US global exporter, oil intensity of US GDP is 60-70% lower, meaning the same oil shock is now 70% less relevant even IF the US wasn't an exporter. Oil percentage of energy generation IS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT. US energy generation through NG is literally close to FREE, and you're bearish tech? LMAO Do you know how Saudi stocks are doing? Pretty well even when it's exporting 50% less oil, because SA is making MORE money now than before the war. You think US money is flowing out? LOL, US shale is literally drowning in money, that flows through to all the bank loans.

ub3rm3nsch

1) SPR flows over time and isnt instantaneous, and is finite. 2) Russian (and Iranian) floating storage are finite. 3) You are confusing average elasticity when oil flows normally with marginal elasticity during a supply shock. 4) You are assuming oil reaches long term equilibrium pricing during a short term sudden supply shock. You should check any oil supply shock in history and it will tell you why your calculations for fair value here are wrong.

gamer900093

IEA March 26 report "Together the two countries have up to 5.5 mb/d of combined additional pipeline egress that can partially offset reduced flows from the Strait." 1 mbd spare capacity through Fujairah, 7 mbd East-West total capacity, with 5 mbd exportable though Yanbu, compared to 0.5 pre-war, 5.5 spare bypass. FED study on PED of crude oil "Using our identification scheme, the short-run oil supply elasticity is about 0.1 and the oil demand elasticity is about −0.1." Note that compared to history the US PED for crude is going to be less inelastic because the oil intensity of GDP is lower, the US uses lower amounts of oil per economic activity. Also IEA: Kazakhstan can bring 0.4 mbd online in March, add every country and you get 1 mb/d Also IEA: pre-war global oil supply was in a glut, ~ 2mb/d oversupply, which is why pre-war oil inventories were at the highest since Covid, source Goldman Sachs. From IEA, global crude supply in Feb was 107.5 mb/d. Demand was 105 mb/d. PED formula, infer % change in price to historical PED. % change in price = % change in supply / PED Taking all these basics, what we get is this: 5.5 mb/d bypass SA + UAE 2.5 mb/d Iran + allowed tankers 0.5-1 mb/d Iraq BEFORE this "exemption" which can increase to 1.5-2 or more. Iraq can currently export oil minimally using tanker trucks and very low Turkey pipe bypass volumes. 1 mb/d unsanctioned Russian floating storage + all other countries, Kazakhstan and some Venezuela. 2-2.5 mb/d SPR. Note that China has yet to tap into SPR which is very high. That gives oil supply flows of 12 mb/d pre-Iraq exemption, or 13.5 mb/d potentially after exemption or if Iran allows more tankers through. Compare that with pre-war of 20 mb/d, we get currently -8 mb/d short or -6.5 mb/d after Iraq exemption. % change in supply of 8 mb/d short is 8/107.5 of total supply or 7.5%, 6.5 mb/d is 6% Considering PED of -0.1 according to Federal Reserve, we get: Change in price = -0.075/-0.1 = +75% before Iraq exemption Change in price = -0.06/-0.1 = +60% after Iraq exemption. The reason why I use WTI $55 pre-war is because 2 months pre-war, markets were already starting to price in the potential for war in Iran, so there was a geopolitical premium not reflected by actual supply flows. It was clear by Feb that the US was moving a lot of military assets. $96 fair value now, $88 if Iraq can export 1-2 additional mb/d.

Salt-Victory7862

Because you can't jawbone physical barrels into existence. SPR is already at historic lows and releasing more while Hormuz is closed is like draining your gas tank to protest the gas station being shut. Bessent knows this, market knows this.

tachyonvelocity

It’s possible because your assumptions are literally wrong. People don’t think the stock market won’t take a hit from 20% restriction because there isn’t a 20% restriction. Currently the supply shortage is about 8% if you actually did the math and knew anything. This comes from SA/UAE bypass 5.5 mbd, Iran exports + allowed ships 2.5 mbd, Iraq potential bypass 0.5-1 mbd, SPR flows 2 mbd, all other countries increase prod/Russian sanctions reduction 1 mbd. That gives 12 mbd of supply that reduces the hit from Hormuz and doesn’t include available industrial storage. Now it’s possible some of this will fall in the future but until it happens, that’s where we are.

ub3rm3nsch

Max Pain + continued cushioning from floating reserves / SPR.

FarrisAT

Their strategy relies on waiting until SPR and other temporary measures are empty… then the pain hits.

2020isgreat

US Energy Department: Soliciting an exchange of up to 10 million barrels of crude oil from the Bryan Mound SPR site.

jrex035

I bought more energy companies on the dip today. People are seriously underestimating both the scale of the crisis and how long it will last. Which is ironic since the PMs of both Australia and the UK made addresses to their nations today about the crisis, many countries in SE Asia are already rationing fuel, and there's already talk of organizing another SPR release. But sure, we'll be back to $75 a barrel oil in a few months lmao

jrex035

Yes, I'm sure the world rushed to implement by far the largest coordinated SPR release in history for no reason at all. Surely capping 10% of global oil production is no big deal and will be quick and easy to reverse. It's funny that you mention Dunning-Kruger since I doubt and question my positions and biases every single day, but keep coming to the same conclusion. The same one that actual commodity experts themselves keep arriving at: oil pricing is bizarrely detached from the actual conditions. Maybe you should think more on Dunning-Kruger yourself?

EBITDADDY007

1. I agree with you, and the ban is not forever. The sweet gets stored in SPR until the day comes when Europe/Asia run out of options (which they quickly will). If you recall, we used to ban exports. Did you know this? 2. Don’t know how to respond to this. Doesn’t make any sense. A ban would impact the US, but not as much as it impacts others. US would still have to import sour from Canada and Venezuela etc. 3. You should go try to play the nat gas curve if you are so sure of this 30-40% number. In fact, I’ll happily take the other side. Your prediction is way higher than the Nat gas curve suggests. Ok 5mm incremental barrels per day. What about the exemptions for China and India? The amount of oil and gas off market doesn’t really add up to much if you add that all back. What exactly is your point? I’m saying Trump could ban exports to pressure Europe and Asia into opening the SoH. I’m not saying it’s a good idea, but Trump could do it and it would be fine in the short term for the US.

EBITDADDY007

1. US cannot refine all the light crude at once but it can refine it over time. Rebuilding SPR dampens when those barrels hit the refinery, which would not result in this mismatch that you think you understand. 2. Venezuela produces sour crude and can produce much more than it has produced over the past decade. Not sure your point here. 3. Global Nat gas prices are not the problem of the US, but they are Europes problem and Asias problem. There’s a spread in price between US nat gas and global gas contracts. Do you understand? 4. The rest of your post is just tin foil hat nonsense. Iranian oil is not being blocked. Iran alone cannot threaten petrodollar without Saudi and GCC. The bypass though Saudi is taking up 7mm bbl, and the 13mm balance though Hormuz is what China and India rely on. The US is the best horse right now if Hormuz stays closed.

FairDinkumMate

I didn't forget about anything. You suggested "banning exports" as a solution & I pointed out it won't work. Just like "refilling the SPR" with it won't work because storing light crude doesn't change the FACT that the US doesn't have enough capacity to refine it! On raw numbers, the US produces enough "oil" to sustain itself, but needs global trade to sell a lot of that sweet crude oil & buy the sour crude that it has much more capacity to refine. And changing the subject to gas won't help. Over 20% of the world's gas supply also passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so its global price is skyrocketing as well. Face it, Trump messed this up. The reason "No President in 47 years had the balls to do this" is because they KNEW the outcome was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is one of the most oil & gas dependent nations in the world & oil & gas are global commodities. When you throw in that Iran is now challenging the Bretton Woods agreement that oil be priced in USD, by only allowing through oil paid for in other currencies and not only will the US struggle with supply, it may well struggle with cashflow as the interest on its debt ticks up.

EBITDADDY007

Refill the SPR. Sell it to one nation that we like. Plenty of options. What number of barrels of light sweet can the US produce and not process per day? You also forget about Venezuelan oil, which is now on the open market, not sold below market to China. In any case, it’s more about nat gas than oil.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

How to keep oil prices down when refineries got blown up, and you don't have enough SPR reserves? Just keep making tweets that negotiations are going well and the war is over, every time it goes a little too high.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Bols really believe TACO man is gonna leave with a closed strait and settle for $100-$130 a barrel from now on? SPR reserves have 94 days left. After that, they won't be able to keep prices down to $4/gallon average. This is a lose-lose situation for bols. If he really leaves, markets are fucked and getting nuked in 94 days. If he TACOs again and continues the war, stocks dip back.

ub3rm3nsch

Between Saudi and UAE rerouting, SPR releases, and so-called floating reserves (including the unsanctioned Russian and Iranian floating reserves), the shortfall has been closer to 11MBD. That is where my number comes from. See: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-war-hormuz-closure-oil-shock/

Sad_Soup_412

You’re right that a Hormuz disruption is a real global supply shock, but “no recovery until it reopens” is a bit too linear for how markets price things. Equities usually move on the rate of change in expectations: if the market starts believing flow disruptions will be partial/temporary, or that governments will offset (SPR releases, rerouted shipping, demand destruction via higher prices), you can still see rallies even while the conflict is ongoing. The bigger knock-on for U.S. stocks might be the second-order effects you mentioned—higher diesel/inputs feeding through to CPI and inflation expectations, which tightens financial conditions and hits multiples, especially if wage growth doesn’t keep up. If you want to sanity-check the macro backdrop without getting whipsawed by headlines, I’ve found it helpful to track a few basics: crude and refined products (not just WTI), breakevens, USD strength, and whether credit spreads are widening—those often tell you more than any press conference. I’ve also used StrongBuyAnalytics’ broad market writeups as a quick pulse check for SPY/QQQ context when the narrative gets noisy: https://strongbuyanalytics.com/stock-market-outlook

tachyonvelocity

Ok serious answer. The current status quo without military escalation from Houthis and Iran blowing up GCC infrastructure is priced in by $100 oil. This is because S.A./UAE bypass, Iranian and selected ships, Iraq able to export 1 mbd, SPR and all other production capacity leaves out 8% oil supply.  Since Price Elasticity of Demand for oil is around -0.1, the change in price for crude is thus 80%. From prewar levels of $55, this means over $100 oil means markets expect a long term supply disruption already.  What will be bearish is increased military escalation leading to the Houthis attempting to disrupt Red Sea, or Iran actually damaging infrastructure. If the US cannot make a deal, a deal being the best scenario, it might unilaterally leave the war, that’s the second best scenario because it eliminates military escalation leading to more supply disruption. 

sandman2986

You should do more research. He sold 180M barrels in 2022 go roughly $95/ barrel. He secured 200M barrels in 2023/2024 for average price of $76/barrel. The last being late 2024 at $74/barrel. You are right! When Biden left office, the SPR was roughly 395M, but they had already made the contracts to keep it at 600M. They effective made billions by selling it at a high time and buying it at a low time.

crazybutthole

>sold off the oil at a higher price and refilled the SPR when oil was at a lower price That's just not true. He sold off the oil and had all these plans to refill at a lower price. But it never happened. When Biden took office there were 640 thousand barrels. When he left office there were 395 thousand barrels. So when exactly did he buy them back? (He didn't) He set us up with 250k barrels less than when he started his term.

Kabrosif

I Don’t think a good jobs report is going to do much with an Oil Crisis that’s rapidly spreading through Asia, Europe and Africa this coming week or two. SPR’s are running low.

Sanpaku

Above 150, at any rate. But before then, exhaustion of SPR releases worldwide, and a lot of demand destruction/worldwide recession. I've almost cleared out anything that wasn't energy, fertilizer, gold, or short related. Just a few for exits before I've battened down the hatches.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Where do bols think oil is suddenly gonna come from? This isn't a case where the Fed can just print oil to save us. There's a 20 million barrels deficit each day. There's less than 2 million barrels a day released from SPR (reserves). To invade Kharg Island, you need to get through the strait first. To get military ships through the strait, you first need to secure islands and miles of coastlines.

Sorry-Tumbleweed-336

Uh - yeah you do. It's a supply and demand kind of thing. Fall short a couple million barrels per day and it's a significant hit. Fall 10 million barrels per day short (like current situation) and it's armageddon once the cushions expire (transport times, SPR, midnight tweets).

hazelnut_coffay

again, you’re thinking reserves are going to save the situation. they’re not. the SPR is the largest reserve in the world. it’s not doing anything. it’s not psychological effects pushing price up. it’s the lack of consistent supply.

Fantastic-Echo-7232

where is the saudi Arabia 7 million barrels goin to flow .. if Hormuz is blocked and Yanbu can max handle 4.5 M barrels .. ok fine i give 7 Msomehow magically flowing like trump’s lies . Venezuela can max produce 0.9 M barrels a day .. it’s infrastructure has been decaying for decades and 5 M barrels will likely fly by 2031 and $100 Billion in investment .. who investing .. Kushner and Don Jr coke boy .. SPR can max release 2 M per day .. due to logistics . Plus this is all if Iran doesn’t escalate if boots on ground .. what about fertilizer , phosphates .. shell has a massive GTL plant in Qatar that was damaged

sandman2986

The other point here is that Biden sold off the oil at a higher price and refilled the SPR when oil was at a lower price. SPR is not just strategic from an inventory standpoint but also as revenue stream.

Maleficent-Couple-76

SPR almost tapped out

Equivalent_Fly_5559

Oil going up is good as US produces more oil than it buys, so fill the SPR and burn it all.

tachyonvelocity

Today The VIX hit 31. This is close to the highs (VIX = 36) that were hit during the Gulf War in 1990 that took out 7.5% of global oil supply and lasted 7 months. Gulf War SPX performance peak to trough was -20%. The current situation if we count all bypass pipelines, SPR, and assuming Iran can still export, is also about 7.5% of global supply lost: 9 mb/d of Gulf oil still online, + 2 mb/d SPR, and + 1 mb/d from all other countries' spare capacity out of 20 mb/d coming out of Gulf pre-war. 8 mb/d out of 106 pre-war supply currently out. Some differences between now and Gulf War 1, the Gulf War was less certain on when it will end because there was ground invasion. When the coalition was announced to drive Iraq out, oil prices instantly fell to slightly higher than pre-war prices. Today, the supply issue is a single point of failure on Hormuz, it seems like Iran actually "wants" to open it but selectively, of course it's using it as a bargaining chip for future negotiations. A few scenarios can happen: 1) The US and Iran have ongoing negotiations and a deal might be reached by 2 weeks. 2) The US keeps a "deadline" of early April and leaves the War unilaterally, in which case it leaves Iran able to enact a toll. This scenario is possible because Israel seems to be amping up attacks ahead of some sort of deadline and this statement by Rubio today: "He said tackling Tehran’s stranglehold on the crucial waterway would be one of the “immediate challenges” following the current Middle East war and insisted “the world better step up” to deal with it," This seems to be implying that the US will leave first then force everyone else to fix it somehow because the US doesn't want to risk lives or navy. 3) The US escalates by using ground forces on the small islands on the Strait to try to secure it, OR, tries to use ground forces to target Kharg as bargaining chip. Besides the point that the US can simply target blocking Iranian tankers as bargaining chip, this would mean the US is going forward with ships going through the Strait in an attempt to force it open. Trying to take Kharg by parachuting on it without navy ship support is really not such a good idea. But this also wouldn't be bearish because like the coalition that successfully drove out Iraq in Gulf War 1, starting the process of using ships to open up Hormuz means the path forward is more ships being able to cross.

volckerwasright

How would u like ur weekend TACOS? -SPR release -“troop withdrawals” -Netanyahu plays doveish in front of cameras

RealParticular5057

I might be a conspiracy theorist but im honestly convinced the US has already sold the oil futures that they are planning on releasing from the SPR and the actual oil deficit is much worse

crazybutthole

Careful. I was 100% sure about energy prices in 2022 and Biden fucked me by selling off the SPR If t.r.u.m.p does that - your thesis fails.

tachyonvelocity

Gulf War, 7.5% of supply went out of the market. Hormuz closure ex-Iran and selected ships, plus bypass and SPR, 8% to 9% of supply out. But in 2026 the oil intensity of GDP, how much oil matters to the economy is about 30% less. The US is also a net exporter.

Mission_Search8991

And on top of this Trump is loaning our SPR oil to companies to profit off of (no profit to the US taxpayer, unlike what other Presidents did).

AnonymousLoner1

...which provoked our SPR to be half-emptied just to manipulate the price back down.

jennibear310

Aren’t we currently at a low point with the SPR, at like 50% since he released another 172 million barrels recently? That’s roughly 20ish days left in the US reserves. They haven’t exactly been replenished since the last dipshit released 230 million barrels, cumulatively, in 2021.

Maleficent-Couple-76

Last week 🥭s card were lifting sanctions and bumping SPR releases, this week it was lies of peace talks. If this weekend isn’t productive for him I truly wonder what his plan will be to continuing to prop the markets up and keep crude down. Things are breaking, Asian countries and India are running low on reserves, Iran will probably continue to hold out, they’ve made it this far and I don’t see any reason why they would just roll over at this point

lurch1_

Despite pledging in January 2025 to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) "right to the top," the Trump administration did not immediately fill the reserve due to a combination of aging infrastructure, high costs, the need for congressional funding, and a desire to avoid driving up oil prices.  While the administration did begin initiating the refill process in late 2025, several factors contributed to the lack of a rapid, full replenishment:  * **Damaged Infrastructure and Repair Needs:** Energy Secretary Chris Wright testified that the rapid drawdowns conducted in 2022 had damaged the SPR’s infrastructure. Repairs, estimated at over $100 million, were deemed necessary before the facilities could handle a high volume of refilling. * **Physical Limitations:** The Department of Energy is limited by the physical capacity of the storage sites, which are aging and need repairs, preventing an instant refill. * **Costs and Budgetary Hurdles:** Fully refilling the SPR was estimated to cost over $20 billion, requiring congressional action to appropriate new funds and reverse previously mandated sales. * **Avoiding Price Surges:** Buying hundreds of millions of barrels of oil at once could have spiked global oil prices, which would have conflicted with Trump’s policy goal of lowering energy costs. * **Ongoing Purchases:** By November 2025, the Department of Energy began awarding contracts to purchase oil to begin the process, with deliveries starting to trickle in, though experts noted that a full refill would take years.  E&E News by POLITICO +6

lurch1_

Despite pledging in January 2025 to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) "right to the top," the Trump administration did not immediately fill the reserve due to a combination of aging infrastructure, high costs, the need for congressional funding, and a desire to avoid driving up oil prices.  While the administration did begin initiating the refill process in late 2025, several factors contributed to the lack of a rapid, full replenishment:  * **Damaged Infrastructure and Repair Needs:** Energy Secretary Chris Wright testified that the rapid drawdowns conducted in 2022 had damaged the SPR’s infrastructure. Repairs, estimated at over $100 million, were deemed necessary before the facilities could handle a high volume of refilling. * **Physical Limitations:** The Department of Energy is limited by the physical capacity of the storage sites, which are aging and need repairs, preventing an instant refill. * **Costs and Budgetary Hurdles:** Fully refilling the SPR was estimated to cost over $20 billion, requiring congressional action to appropriate new funds and reverse previously mandated sales. * **Avoiding Price Surges:** Buying hundreds of millions of barrels of oil at once could have spiked global oil prices, which would have conflicted with Trump’s policy goal of lowering energy costs. * **Ongoing Purchases:** By November 2025, the Department of Energy began awarding contracts to purchase oil to begin the process, with deliveries starting to trickle in, though experts noted that a full refill would take years.  E&E News by POLITICO +6

IAMAHORSESIZEDUCK

>SPR is gonna be fairly small quantities compared to what they are already moving. This is what I was wondering. Would there be a substantial uptick or if it wouldn't have much effect on the stock price.

Gom_KBull

Sir, i've checked our current SPR inventory. We still have another 400million barrels of fucking fairydust. # 🫡

torokunai

the SPR is a magic bag of oil

Bitter_Proof_9288

"I'm just trying to do some forward thinking" You and everyone else. Do you think ET is just sitting back waiting for the reserves to be tapped? or are they doing business as usual? I'm not saying that ET is a bad investment, but they are already moving oil around as it is. Anything that comes out of the SPR is gonna be fairly small quantities compared to what they are already moving

IAMAHORSESIZEDUCK

ET is at the top of the list of companies who move oil through their 140K miles of pipelines when reserves are tapped. I know it's a hypothetical question. I'm just trying to do some forward thinking. This is from a google search. When the U.S. taps into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), major midstream pipeline companies move the oil from Texas and Louisiana salt caverns to refineries. Key companies involved in this infrastructure include Energy Transfer LP, Enterprise Product Partners LP, Shell Pipeline Company LP, Kinder Morgan, and Plains All American Pipeline, LP. Shell USA, Inc. Shell USA, Inc. +3 Key Pipeline Operators: These companies own the infrastructure connecting SPR sites like Bryan Mound and Big Hill in Texas, and Bayou Choctaw and West Hackberry in Louisiana, to major refining hubs. Active Participants: Energy Transfer LP and Shell Pipeline Company LP are major players in transporting SPR crude. The Process: The Department of Energy announces a sale or exchange, and winning commercial companies—often refiners or traders—use these midstream operators to move the oil. Logistical Support: Companies like ExxonMobil Pipeline Company LLC and MPLX LP also maintain extensive networks that facilitate this movement.

IAMAHORSESIZEDUCK

Yea I looked into that too: The U.S. Department of Energy announced contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). WASHINGTON— The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of approximately one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The contracts awarded on November 12, 2025, are for deliveries beginning in December 2025 through January 2026 to the Bryan Mound site. This announcement follows the Request for Proposal (RFP) that was announced on October 21, 2025. President Trump promised to refill the SPR and rebuild America’s strategic strength. Currently, the SPR holds just over 400 million barrels out of its capacity of approximately 700 million barrels. The SPR was severely weakened by the previous administration’s reckless 180-million-barrel drawdown in 2022, which incurred nearly $280 million in costs, delayed critical infrastructure maintenance and put unprecedented wear and tear on storage and injection facilities. “President Trump promised to protect America’s energy security by refilling and managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve more responsibly,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “Awarding these contracts marks another step in the important process of refilling this national security asset. While this process won’t be complete overnight, these actions are an important step in strengthening our energy security and reversing the costly and irresponsible energy policies of the last administration.” In response to the RFP, DOE received eighteen offers from six companies and awarded contracts to the most competitive bids that met all quality and specification requirements. Crude oil deliveries to the Bryan Mound SPR site are scheduled from December 1, 2025 through January 31, 2026. For more information on the SPR please visit Infographic: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Fact Sheet: Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

burritocmdr

I'm reading that $100 million in repairs were needed after the SPR drawdowns (they are stored in underground caverns, releasing and refilling causes damage and reduces the lifetime of how long the caverns can be used.) It would have taken $20 billion to refill the reserves. As usual, they always drag their feet when spending money on anything non-military.

whodey84

More like this was "won" day 1 and now 3 weeks later every country is dumping their SPR trying to keep oil in the double digits.

BellacosePlayer

[Biden balanced out his expendatures](https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-makes-final-purchase-strategic-petroleum-reserve-secures-200) the rest of the SPR drawdowns were all on congressional budgets selling oil from the SPR to make the numbers look less bad.

lurch1_

ChatGPT: Based on early 2025 reporting, the Trump administration did not rapidly refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) due to a combination of budgetary constraints, infrastructure damage, and logistical limitations, despite the president's stated desire to do so. While the Administration did begin smaller purchases to start the process, a rapid "right to the top" refill did not occur in the first half of 2025 due to the following factors:  * **Financial Limitations:** While House Republicans initially proposed over $1.5 billion to refill the SPR, final funding negotiations reduced this amount to roughly $171 million for oil purchases between 2025 and 2029. * **Infrastructure Damage:** According to the Energy Department and reports in early 2025, the extensive drawdowns initiated in 2022 damaged the storage caverns, leaving them in need of over $100 million in repairs and reducing the speed at which they can be refilled. * **Physical Limits of Purchase/Storage:** The Energy Department stated it was limited to buying about 3 million barrels per month due to physical limitations of the facilities, a rate that would make it take years to fill the 700 million barrel capacity. * **Opposition to Funding:** Democratic lawmakers in Congress often resisted large-scale replenishments, characterizing them as a "bailout" or subsidy to oil companies.  E&E News by POLITICO +8 **Progress Made:** Despite the hurdles, the Energy Department did begin a gradual refill process in 2025, with plans to buy a small amount of oil for delivery toward the end of the year and into 2026. The Administration also aimed to cancel previously mandated sales from the SPR to stop the decline, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright in March

Sweaty_Rub4322

One thing I can't understand is why the US. didn't refill them. Trump had also campaigned on refilling the SPR reserves and surprise, did fucking nothing. He can't even blame anyone else for this blunder because he is the one who started this war and it's obvious even to a 15 year old redditor that oil production is gonna tank if we attack Iran. I question the foresight of the administration when even China began buying up oil like crazy while it was cheap, probably anticipating that it wouldn't last for long. https://preview.redd.it/cx2uquwxu2rg1.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e1675fb6ce8b72852dcb7113a9ff085bdc3d603

notquitenuts

IMO nothing but market manipulation is keeping /cl in the 90s. How else can you account for the disparity between its muted price increase and the exponential increase in Asia and Australia? The US is supposedly releasing 1 million barrels a day from SPR which is half full and you can only take say half of that or the salt caves collapse. So we have 15-20 more days to deplete before that ends. I have been running 3-5 dte iron condors in it but i am fully expecting it to pop well over 100 any day now which is why I'm risk defined. I am definitely setting up some diagonals in oil related products though.

jrex035

That's bad math. The Strait represents about 25% of all global trade. The offsets from Yanbu, Fujairah, and Iranian ports, as well as the handful of ships Iran is waving through, is already factored into my ~20% of global trade estimate. You also seem to be mixing up total trade with oil (I agree that around half of oil that typically goes through the Strait is being offset), but there's a TON of other goods that aren't getting through that typically do. And yes, fully agree with you, shipments typically arrive at their destination from the Persian Gulf about 2-3 weeks after departing, which is part of why things have been largely fine thus far. There's also been the unsanctioning of Iranian and Russian oil, as well as SPR releases which have helped offset the lost shipments so far but will start to really bite over the next few weeks and start leading to cascading issues. Just like with Covid, many people aren't seeing the crisis on their front door step *yet* and have thus convinced themselves its all fearmongering and nonsense. But its coming and a lot of the effects are already baked in, even if the Strait fully reopened today

Blarghnog

Yep.  The market is looking backwards and in fear. Trumps a wildcard but his energy policy hasn’t varied. It’s pretty clear.  I’ll throw this out there. This is, in my mind, increasingly a clear attempt to break the back of BP (shall we call it the “spiritual legacy of APOC”) and the British empire’s long history in Iranian fields and their 60+ percent insurance share, but that is a deeper conversation. Just look at the unprecedented move they made outright cancelling policies. The real issue is fiscal as well, and that is something I am watching closely. An "insolvent" US Treasury has zero room to play hero. In past cycles, the U.S. could use the SPR or fiscal stimulus to blunt the edge of an oil shock. Not this time. At least not like it has in the past. You’re right, I wouldn’t think it prudent to make long term bets for exactly your reasoning. Things could still change here, and that’s valid. My intend is simply to inject some different thinking, because I don’t share the doomer outlook at the moment. Smart comment. Appreciate it.

NarpRocks

>If you're betting on it to fall, you have to bank on him, and his handlers being inept. lol, this isn't even a bet.  We already know this to be true.  If his handlers had 2 brains cells to rub together, then they would've filled the SPR before the war.  The fact that they didn't proves that the entire admin is completely inept.

Cueg

Talking about fertilizer, not oil. The interesting thing about the oil thing as well is that we can only release around 1.5 million barrels per day from the SPR due to logistical constraints. I also have many shares of ConocoPhillips. https://preview.redd.it/69b0ekzkqvqg1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=086c0a08d989cb2db28edb50a6ad8addcb669b05

jrex035

>Lol no, it was because of coordinated SPR release At best you could argue it was because of "talk" about a potential SPR release, when they actually announced the release oil shot straight upward (that Wednesday, March 11) >markets quickly price in information that is likely false Lmao sureeeee they di

tachyonvelocity

Lol no, it was because of coordinated SPR release. Yes words can be said at the same time as actual events that move markets. It doesn't mean oil markets "only" moved on words. In any case, markets quickly price in information that is likely false, so INTRADAY volatile moves can happen but if it sticks, it's clearly more than just words.

jrex035

You don't get it. It takes 3 weeks for a tanker to travel from the Gulf to Asia. Their last pre-war deliveries arrive this week and then *poof* widespread energy shortages in Asia. Just a matter of time at this point, which is why were already seeing widespread rationing, price controls, SPR releases, etc. Asia scrambling is why Murban crude is selling for $40 a barrel more than Brent. They were hoping the war and disruptions would be over already and now they're desperately trying to get their hands on oil. Australia is completely screwed, they import most of their fuel from Asian refineries that are already lowering production and are likely to ban exports just like China did weeks ago. That's why I keep saying, people have absolutely no idea how bad things are going to get its all abstract to them for now and since they aren't feeling it, it isnt real. That's not going to last

omarous

it's selling for 150-180 in the gulf but in the global market the SPR release dampened prices. oil doesn't make much sense above 200 as at that price many economic activity will just shutdown.

FlashyLettuce7474

On the topic of oil prices, yes the effects will be much longer than you imply. For the past decade the assumption was that OPEC spare capacity would save the market, the problem is that majority sits in eastern Saudi Arabia. The on paper 3-4 million spare production ready to turned on at anytime is effectively nil right now. Players like refineries thought they has much more runway than they actually did. The long term effects are still unknown and what we do know is that we are rapidly running out of oil in the system and the game of chess is being flipped on its head, most analysts didn't think Trump would let the strait be closed for more than a couple days, it's now a month.  This is a delicate market that we assumed had much more runway than it actually does and reveals that we actually had a structually tight supply market. Forward investments in upstream oil and gas has been diminshing for the past decade. While production hits record numbers, the spare capacity has been languishing as companies lessened spending in exploration. Additionally every barrel released from SPR in many cases legally must be replaced, that means the 400 million barrels released represents 400 million barrels in future demand, a modest increase of 1 million barrels demand per day is more than enough to elevate prices for years.  We can drill relatively quickly yes, the Saudi's especially can lay pipe like no other. But this assumes an Iran that's willing to play nice and a Trump that's willing to accept a defeat. Otherwise we're dealing with a kink in the hose that if not dealt with means we're working with less and less oil at the end in a world only demanding more.

Careful_Response4694

I feel like it's more a side effect than an evil mastermind plan considering he could've timed it after the midterms and after restocking SPR if he wanted to.

2020isgreat

Say it with me VENEZUELAN OIL CAN'T FILL UP THE SPR IT IS DOGSHIT

Trader0721

But crude hasn’t moved in 2 weeks! It’s winding down…they’re releasing from the SPR…all the other bullshit that won’t solve the problems

Maleficent-Couple-76

WTI will rise and sustain its gains if they continue to promise more SPR release. Before Boden admin we had 630 mmbl in it. Before war in Feb it was 430. They promised 170 + even more on Thursday in an attempted front month short, back month swap which will absolutely fuck the treasury once the WTI curve fills out. Not too late to go long Permian producers and domestic energy infrastructure names like (PR, KM, OKE, RRC)

2020isgreat

Oil-on-water buffer is now gone. The next buffer is the excess onshore crude oil inventories excluding China. China is going to hoard, so the excess there is irrelevant. This will last 3-4 days at most. And then it's the SPR buffer, but there's a flow mismatch. lmao

StrangeInsanity

Thanks! Biden, why didn’t you release SPR knowing that Trump will be this stupid!

jrex035

Hey quick question, if this isnt the worst energy crisis in history, why did the EIA rush to implement the biggest coordinated SPR release in history? It was literally more than double the previous release. I fail to see what exactly the head of the EIA has to gain from lying about this in the first place.

Axe_Raider

but we filled up the SPR just before so at least that part went right

bearoftheyearingear

Your initial comment was ignorant. Your subsequent argument is wrong and now your calculations just prove my point. "When the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, oil is rerouted or stored" - **yeah bro, that's why the hole is estimated at 14 million bpd and not the full 25 million bpd.** You come here and say "This non-OPEC growth is projected to add over 1 million bpd this year alone" - **that's exactly what I said in my previous comment, dumbass.** Then you say "The IEA has already revised global demand growth down by 210,000 bpd this month." - **I said in my previous comment that there will be "a little bit of demand destruction".** "Regarding the SPR, you mistake its purpose. It isn't a 1:1 replacement for Middle Eastern output" - **so what's the point of mentioning it and acting like it's your winning argument?** "We use far less oil per unit of GDP now, meaning $140 oil is less systemic a shock than it was fifteen years ago." - **what did I say in my previous comment? I said "I think life goes on as normal even if the oil price is a bit higher."** Maybe you're just senile or something. From the 14 million bpd hole created by the war, you subtract the demand destruction, the 1 million bpd global production increase, the 2 million bpd from SPR and in the end you still have big hole in supply that needs to be filled.

Ihateporn2020

what if bessent is really just selling shorts to be redeemed AGAINST the SPR.

spsteve

BESSENT: U.S. COULD DO ANOTHER SPR RELEASE TO KEEP PRICE DOWN -FOX BUSINESS NETWORK INTERVIEW Yep they shorted oil and are about to get fucking raped.

kim82352

> US Trsy Sec Bessent: US Could Do Another SPR Release To Keep Price Down -Fox > US May Unsanction Iranian Oil That’s In Iran

bearoftheyearingear

Funny enough, I did initially engage in "substantive conversation" (see the initial comment you replied to) and then you came up with a short ignorant comment that lacked arguments, so I had to call it out for what it is. Now you have an argument, so, let's discuss it. >Crude, condensate ​and refined fuels exports from eight Middle Eastern countries - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates - in the week to March 15 averaged 9.71 million barrels per day, data from Kpler showed, down 61% from ​25.13 million bpd in February. Data from Vortexa shows an even more dramatic drop, with exports from the eight ​countries last week reaching 7.5 million bpd, down 71% from February's 26.1 million bpd. [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middle-east-oil-exports-drop-least-60-hormuz-stays-mostly-closed-data-shows-2026-03-16/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middle-east-oil-exports-drop-least-60-hormuz-stays-mostly-closed-data-shows-2026-03-16/) So, experts estimate a hole of 14 million bpd (or more!) that needs to be plugged. The total hole created so far since the war has started is estimated to be north of 150 million barrels as of today. Yes, there will be a little bit of demand destruction because of the high fuel prices. Yes, other countries have spare capacity of about 1 million bpd (unfortunately most of the world's spare production capacity is held by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so most of it is not accessible). The 400 million barrels that the IEA plans to release are not becoming available immediately in the market. The daily flow of those reserves is limited as well. Estimates vary, but, experts seem to indicate that the most positive scenarios is about 2 million bpd. >JPMorgan estimates that a coordinated SPR release could flow at a maximum rate of about 1.2 million bpd, based on past precedents. The 2022 drawdown equated to roughly 1 million bpd. [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/historic-oil-reserve-release-is-only-band-aid-gaping-supply-shock-2026-03-11/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/historic-oil-reserve-release-is-only-band-aid-gaping-supply-shock-2026-03-11/) >The IEA last released emergency stockpiles in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its members managed to reach a combined high of 1.3 million bpd in September 2022, according to consulting firm Rapidan Energy. The IEA could perhaps boost the release rate closer to 2 million bpd, according to Rapidan. [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/iran-war-iea-oil-stockpile-spr-strait-hormuz.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/iran-war-iea-oil-stockpile-spr-strait-hormuz.html) You said "The world has a great deal of oil capacity". Well, you tell me where you think the world will find the remaining daily capacity to plug the hole. You also said you assume I see "dire consequences" here. Depends on what you understand by "dire consequences". I think life goes on as normal even if the oil price is a bit higher. Let's not forget that the average price per barrel of oil between 2011 and 2014 was 95$ (which is around 130-140$ adjusted for inflation). Anyway, instead of lecturing people online about "maturity", you should learn more about a subject before posting ignorant opinions.

tinydisaster

80% of Venezuelan crude is still going to China, and it’s a trivial amount on the global stage at <1%. They use it to pay down debt, in yuan, that China holds. It’s still moving. The regime is the same, the ambassadors to all the BRICS nations were there at the swearing in ceremony for the VP. Iran is still exporting oil and allowing tankers headed to India, and China and paid for in the yuan. Those tankers are traveling the strait unmolested. China has something like a billion barrels of oil in their SPR and have cut off refined exports. I didn’t say China was going to take Taiwan tomorrow, I said they get a free front row seat to see how Irans tech works against US defense weapons. Taiwan, except domestic production, mostly owns US defense weapons. Container ships of drone parts flow into Iran and are not interdicted. I don’t see how this is any way a success, in fact it looks more like a global strategic failure.

PlanetCosmoX

At this point everything is speculation. For instance crude oil inventory in the US actually increased by 6 million barrels as of March 13th with no SPR drawdown. We know this is due to transit time, but others are likely scratching their head. Speculative prices are already lowering consumption, which throws off the calculation of how quickly drawdown occurs, which in turn affects the perception of supply. Anyway I understood his position to base on mitigation measures. We won’t know the impact until we see in late April/May.

InfinitePressure4793

Spot on. Draining the SPR right now is basically the government shorting the global oil market and praying the situation resolves quickly. The problem is Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's daily oil consumption. If that chokepoint stays restricted for an extended period, refilling those reserves later is going to be astronomically more expensive. Also, don't let US domestic production fool you—oil is a globally priced commodity. If the world loses that 20% flow, prices at the pump stateside are still going to the moon regardless of how much we are pumping in the Permian basin

failed_engineer_mx

It cracked 120 sunday morning before the SPR announcement. It was up like 40% in just the premarket. Then they announced before the market opened to stem the tide

spsteve

1) It's been gas hit today... LNG and ALL the byproducts.. it's worse than fucking oil for the global economy honestly. 2) We are two days away from the SPR releases being an offset for lost production. Once that happens the buying moves from constrained mode to scarcity mode... bids start going up out of fear. Yes the SPR release is slow, but the overall balance in the market is something that if the interruption is offset can be hedged out and it can contain price. Monday unless everything is magically back online oil will rip to the fucking moon (unless someone drops a nuke over the weekend, which, 50/50)

Ok-Piano8789

yes they're using the SPR to sell front month and buy 6-9 month out

spsteve

WTI at the day's high... Multiple gas facilities burning in the middle east... yeah.. this is not going to end well for anyone not trading in Rubles. By my calcs we have 2 days left of cover in the oil market from the SPR releases (yes they will be timed slower, but that's the point where the disruption to supply is offset by the release, after that we move to a scarcity buying model which will hammer pricing higher). Not to mention the tail on futures is getting longer and higher. I can't see a reason for rate cuts until well into next year at this point and once this oil shock hits on the back of already hot inflation... rates may have to go up. I'm sorry my bol brethren, but you are now become steak on the bers table.

mdheavyd

markets already priced in the worst case pretty fast, then SPR releases from multiple countries dumped like 400 million barrels into the picture.. that ceiling comes down quick when governments start flooding supply to cap it