SPR

Mateo-i0

$VIVK $RUBI $EONR - Oil Setups Anticipating SPR Oil Purchase Nearing. $SLS And $INTS - Expecting Increase On News Releases $DFLI And $AIRE - Quick 5-10% Swings $MIST - Steady Increase As Nearing Catalyst $GPUS - Searching For Bottom

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Its a oil transport company with strategic holdings into the Permian Basin, not to mention america is about to start a large oil buy up to refill its SPR. Vivakor plans to target the travel/storage side of that project, as its been bottled neck due to a lack of resources/ability to move/drill the oil. Vivakor doesnt drill it though, just help wit transportation, ans storage; aswell as remidefcation of oil contaminated soil and water.

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We wont see any of the SPR purchase till December, plus the Permian Basin is a slow moving project atm. Im holding 5.1k, its just shorted to shit rn.

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Here's a question, how many of us are in a oil related stock due to the landing 1 MILLION dollars of Oil thats gonna be the start of America's plan to refill its SPR.

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Well the SPR oil purchase wont land till December/January. So no point in dumping vivk yet.

Strange-Mood-611

with a 52 week low of .14? Mid-short you probably still win out with SPR refills needing means of transport which VIVK is angled to supply. That and an earnings report during peak retail. Which obviously isn't the sector it's in but high overall market volume shouldn't be ignored either.

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VIVK, RUBI, NUAI for the American SPR replenishment. Thats in the minimum 500 MILLION barrels that will be bought, and have to be; and have to be moved. Plus if u check fintel shorts are finally getting fucked out of the stock with a .05 days to cover adv. DFLI, FEMY, MBOT, IGC, BLNK are my other holds <3

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James Ballengee ($VIVK) (wallstreet mostly doesnt know of vivakor, with only 1 analyst view on the company) Is a intresting ahh ceo, he has more then 10% of the company around a .6-.5 adv. He hasnt sold once, but also is apart of two other corps Brider LLC, and Ferrellgas Partners LP. Which ironically shares a somewhat identical insider buy history with their insiders, that are now; what look like to me they'd be down atleast 10-20%. With $RUBI also leasing out their major freighters, and $VIVK expanding; it makes me wonder what's brewing in the crude oil transport market. I wouldnt be surprised if we're going to see a new SPR or two get announced.

Fine-Drummer2604

How do you calculate SPR?

imdaviddunn

That’s calls making the US money. He also did it to take leverage away from Russia which was beyond admirable and hold back the level of inflation Europe encountered. Biden had his issues. The SPR was not one of them.

SameCategory546

biden dumped a ton of SPR on the market without filling it. I’m pretty convinced we are going to see a huge oil problem sometime in the next few years bc there isn’t enough capex being put in.

dansdansy

Not a bad idea, Biden traded our SPR oil pretty well so maybe Trump can trade our gold?

CheekComplex2711

I might be confused. I thought TSMC's SPR (A16) was an equivalent implementation to powerdirect (14A) while powervia (18A) is using TSVs as a stopgap to get some benefits of backside power while making the implementation easier? Basically I thought TSMC was trying to nail gaafet before just going for the end goal of power direct thereby making it easier to focus on one advancement at a time while Intel was trying to take a step towards powerdirect at the same time moving to gaafet thereby putting most of the focus on gaafet and de-risking the backside power portion by using an easier implementation?

wolf8sheep

>It’s all a gamble. If people say they know for sure something is going up, they probably don’t know anything about anything unless it’s insider trading. This is from another comment I made the other day that is relevant here as it highlights the roadmap of tsmc and the eventual processing and energy improvements from moving to a gates all around transistor measured off the angstrom scale. Edit: the parallel with nvidia when factoring in tsmc a14 node is the cosmos/omniverse to model physical ai such as robots trained off of synthetic data which needs much more processing power and lower energy requirements. 1.4nm by 2028 if you remove the china problem will be a golden age. If you include the davidson window of readiness by 2027 then look out below. https://www.aminext.blog/en/post/tsmc-a14-angstrom-process-tech-strategy-1 Process Generation Target Mass Production Main Transistor Architecture Power Delivery Network Primary Lithography (Est./Confirmed) Key Features / Goals N3 (variants) In Production FinFET (Optimized) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV, DUV Multi-Pat Final FinFET optimization, diverse PPA options N2 2025 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV First-gen GAAFET, significant PPA improvement A16 2026 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV Introduce BSPDN, optimize HPC performance & density A14 2028 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV (Confirmed) First Angstrom node, further PPA enhancements A14P (Planned) 2029 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV / Potential High-NA EUV Enhanced A14, adds BSPDN, possible High-NA evaluation

wolf8sheep

This is from another comment I made the other day that is relevant here as it highlights the roadmap of tsmc and the eventual processing and energy improvements from moving to a gates all around transistor measured off the angstrom scale. “1.4nm by 2028 if you remove the china problem will be a golden age. If you include the davidson window of readiness by 2027 then look out below. https://www.aminext.blog/en/post/tsmc-a14-angstrom-process-tech-strategy-1 “Process Generation Target Mass Production Main Transistor Architecture Power Delivery Network Primary Lithography (Est./Confirmed) Key Features / Goals N3 (variants) In Production FinFET (Optimized) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV, DUV Multi-Pat Final FinFET optimization, diverse PPA options N2 2025 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV First-gen GAAFET, significant PPA improvement A16 2026 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV Introduce BSPDN, optimize HPC performance & density A14 2028 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV (Confirmed) First Angstrom node, further PPA enhancements A14P (Planned) 2029 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV / Potential High-NA EUV Enhanced A14, adds BSPDN, possible High-NA evaluation””

wolf8sheep

1.4nm by 2028 if you remove the china problem will be a golden age. If you include the davidson window of readiness by 2027 then look out below. https://www.aminext.blog/en/post/tsmc-a14-angstrom-process-tech-strategy-1 “Process Generation Target Mass Production Main Transistor Architecture Power Delivery Network Primary Lithography (Est./Confirmed) Key Features / Goals N3 (variants) In Production FinFET (Optimized) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV, DUV Multi-Pat Final FinFET optimization, diverse PPA options N2 2025 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV First-gen GAAFET, significant PPA improvement A16 2026 H2 Nanosheet GAAFET Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV Introduce BSPDN, optimize HPC performance & density A14 2028 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Frontside (FSPDN) 0.33 NA EUV (Confirmed) First Angstrom node, further PPA enhancements A14P (Planned) 2029 GAAFET (2nd Gen) Backside (BSPDN/SPR) 0.33 NA EUV / Potential High-NA EUV Enhanced A14, adds BSPDN, possible High-NA evaluation”

CarRamRob

They did that two years ago draining the SPR by half. All because oil was $3 higher than its adjusted historical average since WW2

Jeff__Skilling

US produces +13 mmbpd……SPR inventory levels are negligible bruh…..

PimpPirate

I thought the SPR was still low from when Biden tapped it in ~2022.

FNFactChecker

>bounce is purely speculation Ummmm oil is up 30% MTD. That's more than a bounce when you're talking about commodities, especially something as critical as oil. >we are overstocked with oil as it is No, we're not. The SPR sits at a shade above 400 million barrels, and the US consumes just over 20 mbpd. As far as safety stock goes, that's 20 days of pure consumption. Compare that to the peak when the SPR was at 707 million barrels and the US consumed 19 mbpd and you get 37 days of safety stock. Globally, we only add between 0.4-0.8 mbpd daily. No, [I'm not kidding. ](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)The world runs best when oil supply and demand are in balance. Cutting off an area that has a daily throughput of 20 mbpd (\~20% of global consumption) becomes a major problem very quickly.

justlurking9891

They should be sticking up the SPR not releasing. They've released plenty over the last few years.

CarRamRob

If only the USA had a full SPR! Oh wait, it’s half emptied because oil was $5 higher than its normal average price. Now we see that even a short term (2 week) supply shock could take years to unwind because there is no surplus supply that can pick up the slack.

dorkstafarian

Iran needs a timeout to come to their senses. Give them a week of Hormuz closure. Open up the SPR and other reserves meanwhile. Their nuclear program is gone and nobody will tolerate them to torpedo international trade for long.

RoyalBlue816

GUH…… 🔥 Immediate Global Impacts 1. Oil Prices Skyrocket • ~20% of global oil and ~25% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this narrow strait. • Closure would disrupt around 17 million barrels/day of oil exports. • Prices could surge to $150+/barrel, possibly higher depending on the duration and severity. • Global inflation would spike, especially in energy-importing nations (e.g. India, Japan, EU). 2. Military Confrontation • The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, would almost certainly respond immediately. • Expect escalation: airstrikes, naval engagements, and potential conflict with Iranian assets in the Persian Gulf. • Other countries (UK, France, Gulf States) could join a coalition effort to reopen the strait. 3. Insurance, Shipping & Global Trade • Shipping in the Persian Gulf would halt or become extremely risky. • Lloyd’s of London and other maritime insurers would likely label the region as a war zone, spiking insurance premiums or suspending coverage. • Tankers would reroute, but there is no viable alternative for most Gulf oil exports in the short term. ⸻ 🌍 Broader Economic Fallout 4. U.S. & Allies’ Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) • Countries would release oil from reserves to stabilize markets. • This might help for a few weeks to months, but not sustainable if the strait stays closed. 5. Global Markets React • Stock markets plunge on fears of global recession and prolonged conflict. • Airlines, transport, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors would be hit hard due to oil dependency. 6. Iran Faces Retaliation • Iran would likely face crippling sanctions, UN resolutions, and potential internal unrest. • Closure could be seen as an act of war, giving the U.S. and allies legal pretext for strikes under international law. ⸻ 🎯 Why Might Iran Threaten This? Iran has threatened to close the strait in response to: • Western sanctions (especially oil embargoes), • Israeli or U.S. military action, • Or broader pressure campaigns. It’s a high-risk strategy—essentially their economic “doomsday button”—since they themselves rely heavily on oil exports through that same route. ⸻ 🧠 Bottom Line If Iran actually closes the Strait of Hormuz: • We would likely see a global energy shock, a military response, and possibly a regional war. • The strait is too strategically important for the international community to allow it to stay closed.

Familiar_Gazelle_467

>Surplus of oil being made Not in the US that's for sure, SPR also looking quite dry

sl3azebag

i mean he made 14 mil on SPR AER AND CLF

cryptohorn

Thank goodness the SPR is full. Oh wait

Turbicom

What about SPR?

ShoppingFew2818

that's dumb. SPR is key in poker and so is effective stacks.

fatbunyip

The SPR is cancelled. So much big beautiful oil. Oil like you've never seen before, and they just put it down there, they just put it from another place they dig it up. Or maybe suck it up, probably both. I'm gonna make stupid slow Jpow work there because he sucks so much. Anyway, it doesn't male sense to put the oil back in the ground, you gotta have it in the cars and in the friers. 

nylyak21

It’s time to refill the SPR, what are you waiting for?

kalakesri

omg maybe that's his plan. make everyone homeless but fill the SPR for free 

GeoBro3649

Drill Baby Drill means we are going to stack rigs. In fact, it's already happening. If 🥭 manages to get more of our oil moving overseas again, while filling the SPR, prices may recover? However I don't see this working out as he plans. If thats even his plan. Which i can guarantee it's not. Its more angry word vomit. So yes, puts it is!

doublesteakhead

I feel like this is a little revisionist. The purpose of Afghanistan was revenge.  The purpose of Iraq was that wars (the early part anyway) make a president popular. I don't know how much the US really has to care about that region anymore. Investing in domestic production would make the ME less relevant over time, and it has. With the SPR the US is able to break OPEC. 

WickOfDeath

Shouldnt this group be unpolitical? You can study the "chairman" of the oval office like any other chairman of any other corporation, company or single person business... and just trade it. Trump is jut like the former Starbucks CEO... when that CEO left the stock of Starbucks gained 20% in one day. And oil is currenltly cheap so a congress man already launched a proposal to fill the SPR with 200M gallons. So of that bill passes... you would earn money in case you are long on oil.

AmbitiousBets

I wonder if OP is legit, I was looking into CAPR analysis and I thought he wan onto something until I came across this post on his profile. SPR went down all the way to $24 after this post, and is trading at $33 currently. Makes me question the legitimacy and intent of your posts. @androidmj

lostinspacs

Good time to fill the SPR though

JLARGE53

The oil produced was a function of necessity and the infrastructure already built, it was not their policy. Whatsoever. Which was not issuing leases, canceling the Keystone, draining the SPR, and adding more regulatory hurdles. And no, Biden held an EV summit in 2021 where he rolled out a plan to have 50% of vehicles on the road be EVs by 2030. And didn’t invite Tesla.

Tapprunner

The US government doesn't have a strategic cheese stockpile. SPR should be obvious. If we got cut off from oil, our economy would collapse. Our stockpile of gold is largely a relic from our time on the gold standard. The government isn't going around the world buying up gold mines because we desperately need more gold in reserve. And even if the government was doing that - why would we need an alternative to the alternative "store of value"? In case everyone in the world stops accepting US dollars AND gold? "If we stockpile gold, then BTC should be no different" - why? And your North Korea example is beyond absurd. In that scenario, why not have a sardine stockpile? Or what if North Korea will only accept payment in cigarettes? What if they'll only take platinum? Institutional investors and retail investors might like BTC as a speculative investment. But if BTC disappeared tomorrow, the world wouldn't change one iota. There would be some investors who aren't happy because they lost money on their investment. But BTC has no use outside "people agree it is worth something". Literally everything else either of us have listed as alternative stockpiles have actual uses. At least sardines can be eaten.

TowlieisCool

Looks like were discussing this in 2 different threads so going to combine here. Cheese is stockpiled to prop up dairy prices btw. I'll admit it was a poor example as it doesn't follow other reserve strategies. I'd argue the SPR functions exactly in the same way that a BTC reserve would function. There are U.S. corporate entities that require BTC to operate (eg. Coinbase and Robinhood). A foreign entity could buy up the available BTC on U.S. exchanges and cause a liquidity crisis, potentially affecting other markets. The SPR was established for the exact same reason, foreign actors affecting the available liquidity of a commodity needed for U.S. businesses to operate. Individual stocks are more complex. There are systems in place to prevent similar liquidity crises (halts for example) that don't exist for commodities traded globally.

Tapprunner

Bitcoin is used almost exclusively for investment speculation. It's used in a few countries with wildly unstable currency, but there's almost nothing in the world that relies on Bitcoin in order to run. Our reserve of gold in Ft Knox is largely a relic of our time on the gold standard. We're not running around buying up gold right now. But even if we were: gold has actual uses. It has real industrial applications beyond "people agree it's worth something." And the SPR is necessary because our entire economy would collapse if we were suddenly cut off from oil. But, what would happen if we were suddenly cut off from Bitcoin? I think crypto bros and a few financial institutions would have lighter wallets. Anything else? I'm genuinely curious what danger America might face by not having easy access to Bitcoin?

TowlieisCool

>If Bitcoin were to magically disappear tomorrow, not a single thing would change Very obviously untrue. >If Bitcoin were to magically disappear tomorrow, not a single thing would change, except some people would have less money on paper. So why are we building up a reserve? You could make this argument for every strategic reserve we have. Why is there gold in Fort Knox? >I still have yet to get any kind of explanation of how this would benefit America in any way. Your points are entirely correct. There is a general global consensus that BTC has value. If a situation arises where BTC is required, and the U.S. needs to procure it to resolve the situation, they don't want to have to go out and market buy a bunch of BTC, because it may not be available to purchase. Its like the SPR, sometimes we need oil for various economic reasons, and we don't want to scramble to source it when the need arises.

androidmj

I sort of lucked out on SPR and held until they sold to Boeing. I essentially broke even on them. I did end up tripling on AER though, I had 60,000 shares at $33 and sold over $100 recently. I had a $14M balance until the last month, where now I'm sitting round $11M. I’ve been up and down plenty, but this is one of the few asymmetric setups I see that could justify another large bet. If it gets approval with a Priority Review Voucher in hand (worth >$100M), the re-rate will be huge.

bootygggg

*$2 trillion/yr deficit, drained SPR, war in Ukraine and Israel, high inflation, higher interest rates, and a shit jobs market There fixed it for you

JaysLight_

What happened to your 14MM SPR yolo?

Kay312010

De Haan estimated that gas prices could increase 5 to 20 cents per gallon. He said markets that rely heavily on Canadian crude oil or refined product imports from Canada such as the Great Lakes, Midwest, the Rockies and the Northeast will feel the pain at the pump the most. “Trump’s new trade tax has already triggered retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating tensions,” De Haan wrote. “While, on paper, tariffs on Canadian energy could have a significant impact on fuel prices, prolonged trade tax increases could weaken global economies, reducing demand and partially offsetting the effects of tariffs.” https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/trumps-tariffs-cause-pain-pump-americans-experts/story?id=118399930 Multiple policies could contribute to inflationary pressures in the oil market. Plans to refill the SPR would increase demand for crude, potentially pushing prices higher. Additionally, the possibility of tightening sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, along with proposed tariffs on imported Canadian and Mexican oil, could constrain supply, further driving up costs. In particular, proposed tariffs on Canadian oil imports could significantly affect Midwest consumers because refineries in that region are optimized for Canadian heavy crude. The tariffs would force either Canadian producers to accept lower prices or U.S. refiners to pay more for Canadian oil. Consumers would ultimately bear these higher costs through increased prices for refined products, conflicting with the administration’s goal of lowering gasoline prices.

whodey84

'tis a gift. Mango hasn't even started squawking about refilling the beautiful SPR.

Mysterious_Ad_2777

Weaponize the **SPR** Dump **300million barrels** That wouldn’t cause any damage to the oil market right? 

natalie_merchant_fan

Mainly the technicals look good as the stocks have become extremely oversold. But there could be a fundamental kicker from China and expected refilling of SPR. This is a short/medium term trade from my perspective.

Baraxton

Seeing this and hearing the term "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and Jim comparing it to a strategic petroleum reserve is absolutely one of the most asinine things I've ever seen. SPR is imperative for national security, energy security, and price stability of oil in the US. BTC is akin to digital gold (with less utility and high energy costs). This will certainly be the most interesting presidential administration in US history.

crazybutthole

It's a pretty thorough post - but - you completely left out any mention of the strategic oil reserves (SPR) that Biden dumped during his term to artificially deflate gas prices. How Trump handles that will have a significant impact....likely similar to or nearly as important as every other factor you mentioned above. If trump and his team stops selling off our SPR and actually refill it - things can go one way. If they continue to drain it at the levels Biden has - things can go a different way. I won't try to speculate too much and I am trying not to predict how Trump will handle it. But that is a HUGE FACTOR that must be considered after he is in office and we start to see ACTUAL DECISIONS being made and acted upon. It's too early to believe anything they've said as we all know politicians can say anything to get elected and then do something different when they're in office.

frcdfed2004

asian demand is down, demand in europe is up. US is expected to push well beyond 4m bbls/day for dec and jan for exports, majority of that will go to europe. china is waiting for pricing to crash before they fill their SPR, they are currently also limiting the independent teepots demand from getting to the market. saudis already pulled back from their chase of market share and opec will most likely keep the current cuts in place or deepen them at this weeks meeting (believe its this wednesday).

OddBaker

> Plus Trump will increase US's SPR and can buy at base cost from American producers. So what is it then? You were just trying to say that demand would increase if prices were low, therefore increasing overall prices... Also America doesn't have any "socialist" nationalized oil companies and they aren't controlled by the government. So as I was saying originally why would free market capitalist US oil companies want to flood the market with oil and sell their product for "base cost", when they can maintain their higher margins? Unless of course, you're suggesting the US government regulates who oil companies can sell their product to.

qroshan

OPEC+ is filled with clueless idiots like most redditors. They just got lucky with resources and have no strategy or incentives to bring down the cost of drilling. They are a one trick pony and know only one thing. The new era unleashed by Trump's deregulation will give raise to more innovations. Plus Trump will increase US's SPR and can buy at base cost from American producers. God, it's so fun to debate losers who lack imagination or innovation.

tsammons

Maybe we can finally get the SPR back above 1980s levels since global war is seeming more and more likely by squeezing out China's growth.

thotdocter

What exactly do you even claim IEA is saying? IEA may be noble but ultimately still propaganda to hit zero carbon emission targets. They have been known to live in complete fantasy vs. what OPEC actually does. Regardless go look up actual weekly EIA data and production. Facts are we continue to raise production in the US while still filling up the SPR steadily. When Trump enters office, deregulation is going to make oil EVEN cheaper.

Euler007

Sure, factor in butterfly power if you want, 2024 is the highest consumption year in history, until 2025. And emptying half the SPR while forcing domestic producers to produce more so that Wendy's shift managers can drive a V8 isn't conducive to lower long term consumptions.

c0rrupt82

The SPR needs all kinds of grades of crude. Not just WTI spec. Some was booked, but the sheer volume of physical delivery was not able to be absorbed by traditional storage nor TTV

SkiTheBoat

Half of the SPR would cover US consumption for about 8 days

Euler007

They could just dump the other half of the SPR, problem solved. Better save it for the midterms.

Paul_Robert_

There's a merger of Spirit Aeorsystemss and Boeing that might happen in 2025. If it goes though, then you'll get $37 worth of Boeing stock for every share of SPR you had.

MediocreDesigner88

This is how stupid I am: I thought I bought some of this a while back, but apparently I bought $SPR Spirit Aerosystems, and it’s slightly up. 😅

Nemo-pluribus-unum

The current SPR levels still can last for decades. Oil stocks about to crash hard. Lol

Sarcasm69

The SPR says otherwise…

BigDiplomacy

War escalates, Iranian oil production is permanently knocked offline to some degree causing oil prices to go up. Biden-Harris, being very much of the mind of "if gas is expensive they won't vote for her" would release from the SPR to the extent necessary to keep prices down - at least until the last ballot is cast. Keep in mind this is half shit-post, since the oil types Iran produces are not exactly 1:1 with what's left in the SPR.

BigDiplomacy

Crude might go limit down when Biden announces he's releasing whatever may be left in the SPR. "Not one drop will be left, no malarky."

MorrisseysRubiksCube

SPR. It was cheap when I bought it and Boeing can't make planes without them.

4score-7

Yep. Stocks go up. However, oil crisis is looming. We can release from the SPR, but only as long as we have it.

BigDiplomacy

Crude up 4%? Is this legal? Someone wake up Biden, we need more SPR releases post-haste!

askepticoptimist

The contribution of the SPR refill is a smaller impact than you think...it peaks around 3 million barrels a month (\~36 million per year) on infrastructure limitations. Global oil demand, on the other hand, is over 100 million barrels per **day**.

MechanicalDan1

Maybe you missed those multiple politician decisions to sell oil from the SPR to bring down prices. Fuck OPEC. US shale and SPR baby!

McTenders

Lol you should probably avoid oil trades, until you understand it better. The dude above even tried to give you a super helpful sarcastic hint, and all you heard was the sarcasm. Please read up on the SPR before any more replies. Link below to help. https://www.energy.gov/ceser/strategic-petroleum-reserve

Redditaccount2322

No I was speaking about reddit in general, not just WSB. I'll agree that this board is generally apolitical. Also I'll agree that depleting our SPR is bullish for the markets (bearish for O&G though) and actually makes me want to open a position in Oxy.

BoxAndShiv

That's not ironic, no. Hypocritical though, potentially. >the underlying facts should outweigh the way the message was written It seems disingenuous to frame the downvotes this way. I'm relatively certain that he wasn't downvotes due to his facts about the oil reserves. He's being downvoted for calling Biden a traitor for.... *checks notes* using oil reserves to mitigate rising fuel costs due to geopolitical events and supply shortages. Huh. And then implying the only motive was for re-election campaign purposes. He's being downvoted for that rhetoric, not for his facts about the SPR.

ScalliwagFinance

WSB isn't smart enough to realize SPR draining has suppressed oil prices for two years. But it has effectively put a floor on oil prices around $65 as the Gov will buy back at any lower in permian.

crazybutthole

He sold the oil, that was our emergency war insurance oil. And he hasnt bought it back When emergencies happen like hurricane Katrina we used 5% When emergency like 9-11 we used 3% When desert storm Gulf war happened we used 6% During our most recent 3 year period we have used 40% of our SPR and replaced 5% So we are negative 35% in a time where USA was not directly involved in any way or national emergency.

dexvx

Sapphire and Emerald Rapids are some of the least competitive products compared to their AMD counterparts since the late Netburst Xeon days. Again, goes back to mostly 10nm yields forcing SPR to be delayed over a year. Sierra Forest is an interesting solution, but it's not competitive with current Zen 4 from performance perspective (wins in perf/watt). We'd have to wait until Q4'24 with Granite Rapids. But by then, Zen 5 Epyc should be out. Although judging from the Zen 4 vs Zen 5 Ryzen chips, not sure it'll make much an improvement aside from the increased core count.

red_purple_red

Prices need to be suppressed to force suppliers to cut. It's much easier to price gouge when there is a shortage. Once the SPR is finally drained we're gonna see some real shit.

UlquiorraCfier

It's election year. Democrats are trying to keep price down as possible until middle east chaos and russia screw SPR refill plans

AdPrestigious8198

Refil the SPR If Biden admin did this last time OPEC wouldn’t have cut production

Super_Highway_3405

For starters, OPEC is terrible at predicting markets, even their own. Attempted to squash the U.S. shale industry a decade ago. It hurt our production a couple years. Retail investors were eaten alive, especially those in MLPs, but OPEC had to cut off their nose for that while our production has increased since the initial dip. They were also expecting a huge supply shortage this year, which obviously never materialized. Beyond that, I don't see them saying anything about a global recession, or even soft global oil demand. They see soft demand in China, which should've been a given with their current economy and push to EVs etc. OPEC is hurting for money again, so they're going to have to increase production again regardless. We'll continue to refill SPR for lower prices than we sold in 2022, and global economies will benefit from lower oil prices. TL;DR 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Except for BA.

visionarymind

🥱, wut can those sand monkes even do❓ SPR refilled sub $60 at this rate 🍦👅

proret4rd

When oil goes into the $50s guess what happens to all those oil jobs. Unless the government fills the SPR back up

YeonneGreene

Sell off the SPR when prices are high, flooding the market and punching OPEC in the nuts as the global price tanks, then refill by purchasing cheaper barrels while pocketing the difference. The ultimate put on oil.

freecmorgan

Hard to argue there is anything strategic about the SPR when we're net exporter of oil and gas. Sort of warren buffet's emergency fund. It's not 1975 anymore.

kylestoned

Couple hurricanes in the Atlantic. [US needs to refill SPR](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-plans-slowly-replenish-strategic-petroleum-reserve-into-2025-2024-08-14/) Great time to start trading it.

Embarrassed_Dot6628

Fuck me, you're right on this one. I was missing the critical information of index weight vs ETF weight, which I found. Sorry, I trade and Reddit at 3am while feeding a newborn. If I get the energy I'm going to follow up with a trial rebalance using their methodology and see what happens - at the very least I have learnt a lot about ETFs and indices. I'm still unconvinced that the magnitude of sales pressure matches your expectation, but SPR and BA do match the index weighting and are due for a trim come rebalance time.

GatelessGately

I'm not sure I'm following your Boeing and SPR point? XAR holds them in the exact same proportion as the index, no less no more? What am I missing in your argument here about historical stock prices?

Embarrassed_Dot6628

Can you highlight specifically where you're reading that they're supposed to buy the securities the index tracks? A lot of this paragraph is explicitly stating the opposite - the price might differ because the sample (some but not all) of securities they hold differs from the whole index performance, or the other securities they can buy instead move differently than the index. Historical data is very easy to find. SPR was $30 a share on the last trading day of may, and $33 at the end of June. In fact since February it's closed each month at about 33 +/- 3 dollars. What you're describing may be a real inefficiency in index weighting, but it is disingenuous to try and explain away an obvious mismatch between the data you've presented and the theory you're proposing with a very easily disproved claim.

GatelessGately

So, I understand that the investment strategy language confuses the issue. But for SPDR ETFs, the fund managers don't really pick and choose stocks like that. They're really supposed to just buy the securities the index tracks. My point with Spirit is that the test date for a security is a month before the actual buy date. So if SPR was trading at half of what it was a month later, the ETF would have bought more shares than necessary to achieve the target $ value. It's an inefficiency. https://preview.redd.it/hd1foroxitld1.png?width=1070&format=png&auto=webp&s=17f6d1a7b04939ea2c282b9730958f37618f18e6

GatelessGately

https://preview.redd.it/rnydz5haymld1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c67d5bf7f24b1e2f934cb59a2b8f80e11c545fc Here's to show you. You'll note at the top that money market holdings increased the most along with other large cap companies (and some volatile smaller caps that popped like SPR) while the other smaller cap companies suffered reduced shares. So, the ETF was likely moving money into money market *in lieu of* holding those riskier securities, which it is allowed to do if it thinks necessary to track the index.

GatelessGately

Great question! Thanks for taking an interest. I'm not a FA or a pro so please don't take my word as gospel but happy to provide my thinking. So the why did it cut question in its simplest terms\*\* is because the balancing calculations for an equal weighted ETF required it to sell but the resulting 1.2% was a larger cut to its respective weight than intended. Each ETF prospectus includes a very clear risk section disclosing that the target weights for an index are subject to error and inefficiencies in the market. So the divergence in small caps and large caps in the first half of the year may have caused a misbalancing. https://preview.redd.it/z8wkbjw8wmld1.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ec5bb0f3633431a1bbfd8c470ee5152e92da848 For instance, if during the time between the test date (a month before) and the balancing date, the share prices of the constituent securities fluctuates violently, you can have balancings that are a month stale. As an example, during the period between last quarter's test date and the balancing, Boeing announced its acquisition of SPR which resulted in a share price increase on top of XAR's existing rebalancing purchase and so an over weighting of SPR (as compared to the calculation from a month before) of over 5%, making it the largest holding in the ETF. What this highlights is the interaction between constituents in an equal weight and how one weight increasing necessarily entails another weight decreasing. **\*\***With that in mind, the more important point (in my mind) is that the ETF sold off a lot of its positions in smaller caps and instead increased its cash holdings by 50% up to 7.6% of total holdings. If you've been watching any of the CNBC talking heads, this comports with the ongoing discussion about capital "on the sidelines" ready to be deployed into the market. Why? Because XAR is permitted to hold cash and cash equivalents for risk purposes and the interest rates for money market accounts has been lucrative. But as the money market returns come down, those funds will flow back into the market, as is the case here.

ChillyAnalyst

A lot people refuse to accept this, not sure why. Even crude is very possibly in this state. We have ME tensions artificially keeping them high plus SPR propping it up as well. Yet WTI refuses to break 80.

BigDiplomacy

> THE GOVERNMENT ASSIGNED BY THE PARLIAMENT IN LIBYA DECLARES A STATE OF FORCE MAJEURE ON ALL OIL FIELDS AND PORTS AND HALTS OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE Good thing the SPR is full and ready! /s

kylestoned

put credit spreads on oil into 2025 will be a good trade as US government looks to fill the SPR

Reasonable_Yard9906

presidential election they gonna deplete the SPR to keep voters happy. Recession coming up oil prices historically lower.

PurpleDepartment8828

If they're the same, then why is oil up several hundred percent from its all time lows while lithium just dropped to a mere 50% above all time lows? China may do well and fine meeting their own supply, and competing in the global market for a devaluing commodity. But lithium and crude oil is apples and oranges, or the market would be pricing in lithium with more potential growth than it is currently. Allocate how you want to allocate. People thought the same thing about cobalt. The scarcity dynamic is vastly different for lithium and crude - just look at the US SPR - and crude has much fewer substitutes. Additionally, lithium can be recycled.

Euler007

Oil could put upward pressure on inflation. Inventories are at a five year low (for this time period of the year), prices are moderate but rising. I expect price to keep rising and the SPR to start going down again until after the election. Then oil really goes bullish. Every economy in the world is banking on cheap oil to boost their GDP, and every third world regime is subsidizing gasoline to stay in power. Eventually that won't work. That's it the Yen carry trade unwind doesn't just create an economic crisis.

possiblerussianbot69

> the SPR is already empty of certain crude types. how did that habben?

BigDiplomacy

While no one is looking, crude has been creeping up all week. Bonus meme: we get WW3 over the weekend and the SPR is already empty of certain crude types.