Reddit Posts
Question about the book "Mastering the Trade"
Shares outstanding question Trinity Capital (Trin ticker)
Market Playing too much with our emotions.
Has anybody looked at the TRIN/ARMS Index this year? Calling a top next week...
10-4-22 SPY/ ES Futures, Apple and Tesla Daily Market Analysis
10-3-22 SPY/ ES Futures, Apple and Tesla Market Analysis
5-9-22 SPY, QQQ, VIX Daily TA
$IWM end of day flows from Friday, GEX, Put/Call OI chart with executed distribution, TRIN, Breadth, Bullish Flow reports and some charts.
$QQQ end of day flows from Friday, GEX, Put/Call OI chart with executed distribution, TRIN, Breadth, Bullish Flow reports and some charts.
$SPY end of day flows from Friday, GEX, Put/Call OI chart with executed distribution, TRIN, Breadth, Bullish Flow reports and some charts.
$IWM managed to close above its DT today but unable to stay above 223.25. This has been the defining pivot since July 13th and can be traced back to Feb 8th. The flows went from neutral to yesterday back to bearish today. Thus my position reaming that IWM is the weakest link in this market.
$QQQ like the SPY another ATH today. Everything from yesterdays post still applies. Flows remain bearish with puts continuing to lead calls in both volume and premium. QQQ are basing in the space between 2 rising wedges on the daily chart.
$SPY everything from yesterdays post still applies in terms of GEX and price action. Although todays flows were back to leaning slightly on the bearish side.
Mentions
I'm a full-time trader. I dedicate 5-6 hours each day to researching the market, 2-3 hours of those are focused on researching external data: Market summaries, Treasuries, many economic releases (not just the big ones, but reports like the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, the FHFA Housing Price Index, and so on), any speeches from FOMC voting members, Trump's speeches, and any other market-moving commentary. Then I review the charts of the top indexes, the eleven S&P sectors, several countries' ETFs, and over 50 different indicators/studies (McClellan Oscillator, Advance/Declines, High/Low ratios, TRIN, volume metrics, Bolton-Tremblay, Zweig breadth data, etc.). I also have a table of all this data, which dates back several years, allowing me to identify similar historical instances. Then I review analysts' upgrades/downgrades, PT updates, earnings, stock-specific news, and, depending on the season, SEC 13-F filings. So... I don't really read news from an outlet. I source my own insights. Do your co-workers do something similar? I believe there's a difference between sourcing information (from your own research) and consuming information (what a news outlet gives you).
Public REITS are Dead Money dividend yield TRAPS....Their NAV and share prices keep dropping due to constant dilution to raise cash, coupled with high interest rates, one may break even but collect a measly 5%-7% divided. BDC's are better plays for dividends, with a modest stock growth. CSWC, TRIN, SAR, MAIN **Good luck........;+)**
I would add Altria (MO) with 6.5% yields. They just up'ed their dividend to $1.06 per quarter, plus the stock is up 25% YTD. Add in TRIN for 12.5% and GOF for 14.5%. When you DRIP GOF you may get a 5% discount. Good luck.
Why not just go with SPYG or SCHG in your Roth IRA and skip the SWPPX mutual fund. At 23 dividends from mainstream ETFs won't move the needle. Just buy some individual stocks for dividends. Altria (MO) 6.5%; TRIN 12.5%; GOF 14.5% yields. Good luck investing and make sure to use a Fintech app such as Webull that gives you 4.0% plus 4.1% match from a promo.
TRIN is predicting we either return to green - retreat from today's +2.5 back to the -1 to +1 range - or crash tomorrow.
I'm still holding puts on obscure sht like BXMT but sold out of other obscure sht like TRIN, I've also been holding puts on more known things like BROS, it was an interesting week for sure. I have roughly the same target range on SPY, $490-$503, but I favor the lower end of the range. I also want to say that I generally enjoy every post you make and you will be my first follow <3. [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1jdhuyy/comment/mk733df/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1jdhuyy/comment/mk733df/?context=3) I tried to give a heads up on my BROS trade but reddit denied the community free money lol trade was absolutely on point and it happened like I said it would within a few days.
Park it in TRIN and walk away for a few months. Go outside. BBQ. Hike. Mountain bike.
What I am buying TRIN - high dividend 12% - Ex dividend date today
SPY and QQQ moving apart only tells me one thing. Money is flowing into tech and its happening right before NVDAs earnings. There was also a bullish crossover on the MACD on the 15 min timeframe on the second candle which led to that massive pump. Right now we just retested the signal line on the same timeframe but it failed to go under. Even tho the RSI is about to be overbought especially on the daily I think were gonna go higher and fuck the bears. Especially considering the put/call ratios. Also, the TRIN on the SPY tells me that selling pressure is increasing, but not too much which tells me the market is healthy but money is shifting. I need to go outside
All the indices have their own volatility index. Can’t remember Nasdaq. RVX is the Russell. MOVE is for bonds. OVX is for oil. Gold has one. There’s also the SKEW index which tracks the OTM options prices, compared to VIX which is ATM. The nations tail index, TDEX also does this. TRIN is more of an indicator than an index.
0DTE options seem to be all the rage lately. Most retail traders are limited to equity and ETF options due to the size of the account required to trade index options which are more for institutional accounts, so most retail traders stick to $SPY and $QQQ. You need the right intraday market breadth indicators to determine the market direction, A/D Line, TICK, and TRIN and Up vs. Down Volume are some of the more popular ones to determine who is in control, the buyers or the sellers. Most days do not have a strong trend and are better suited for selling options, only about 15-20% of the trading days have a strong directional trend where one side maintains control for buying options which is where you can turn a $100 investment into about a $500 gain but it doesn't happen that often, 80-85% of the time you will be selling puts for small profits. For me, 0DTE's are just not my style. I'm a technical trader who has spent years developing profitable options trading strategies that I continue to use and share with my substack subscribers daily.
Fair point. Just wanted to help others so that they don't jump in and buy tons of shares. > I bought them because they were close to 52 week or longer lows and for their dividends. Good strategy. > I notice you do not disparage HASI, BANCpF, KEYpK, ING, HTGC, or TRIN. I don't have proper data for these.
So what's your point? That I have not given you 13 stocks to buy immediately? Have owned: AES for 5 years CWEN for 6 years and just bought more today UNIT for 4 years SACH for 4 years SPTN for 5 years and just bought more today POWWP for 3 years CC for 4 years The stocks were given as examples as to what I was talking about not a buy list. I listed them because I was familiar with them. I bought them because they were close to 52 week or longer lows and for their dividends. Growth is okay, decent dividends are better, much better. JMO. I notice you do not disparage HASI, BANCpF, KEYpK, ING, HTGC, or TRIN. To save you the trouble ING, HTGC, & TRIN are near all time highs.
I really like investments that are fairly crucial to civilization such as: electrical utes, waste management, & computer infrastructure. Utes since everyone needs to plug in to run their house, soon their cars, etc. Waste management since everyone hates dealing with trash. Computer infrastructure - not software, not building computers, not semi's but the actual cell towers or fiber that carries the signal. Like buying stuff that is not on the bleeding edge but far enough back from the bleeding edge that it is hard to replace. Makes for boring companies for the bulk of the portfolio. Not dying industries, not unexciting companies, just companies that make money in a boring way - day after day, week after week. Companies would include: AES, CWEN, HASI, UNIT, SACH, SPTN, POWWP, BANCpF, KEYpK, ING, HTGC, TRIN, & CC.
SA also stated that one "should wait for a pull back" since HTGC is currently within $.20 of an all time high. I have owned HTGC since 2015. Like them a lot. They are somewhat cyclical. One of the things that made them popular and rich is that they invested in FaceBook before its' IPO. Do not know how HTGC does it, but they successfully invest more often, in a hard to invest in space. That is why I like them. They are almost as boring (at making money) in their day-to-day operations (this is a good thing) as MAIN (BDC but totally different industry that they shop in). Might also want to look at TRIN & TPVG. TRIN is also a little pricey right now.
Yep, I actually use $ADD more. And aside from $VOLD, I have $TRIN (intraday plays), $SPXA50R, 100R and 200R (for swings).
You might enjoy investing in venture-related CEFs like TRIN.
TRIN GPS GAIN PBR TSLY These are the main ones I’m planning on keeping for awhile. Slowly selling out of others
Put TRIN on your watchlist, try and buy some around the 10 to 12 dollar mark. 12% Dividend
14 bar RSI using Open + High + Low + Close / 4 and using the 5 day as well as 10 day moving average of daily closes on the nyse advance decline line . Also I look at the 5 and 10 day average of daily closes on the TRIN . Those indicators have been the most consistent to me . I realize nothing is perfect
Wait for TRIN to drop to 12 and load up. Great dividend.
i look at the SP500 heatmap too and get... confused https://finviz.com/map.ashx You could look at market internals TICK TRIN ADD VOLSPD, DXY, VIX to see when ***not*** to trade directionally, see Carter's *Master the Trade* book
Companies have shares outstanding before they go public that represent the ownership interests of the owners at that time. Let's say a company has 10 million shares as a private company. They might issue 5 million shares to the public through and IPO. Post-deal, the shares outstanding have increased to 15 million, with the new public investors owning 5 million shares and the original private investors owning 10 million. The private investors can sell their shares in the public market over time if they wish, subject to trading restrictions, registration requirements, etc. Outside of public offerings, shares can get issued through various incentive plans such as stock options or restricted stock units, or they can do follow-on offerings where they sell more shares after the stock has already been trading. Occasionally, the company might sell new shares into the market over time as part of an "at the market" offering. They would typically announce an ATM offering when it starts, but not necessarily put anything out as it actually gets executed. Those are probably most common for REITs. Sometimes a company will issue shares as part of a merger transaction. Finally, a company's shares could go up if they do a stock split, which doesn't really change ownership interests. It looks like TRIN did two follow-on offerings in 2022 and also has sold a few shares through an at-the-market offering.
Most stellar BDCs that survived 2008 like HTGC and ARCC are currently trading well below NAV with yields upwards of 10% due to the past week’s turbulence. MAIN is another great BDC but trades well over NAV and has for some time. I’d say the only BDC that could be risky right now is TRIN due to its exposure to crypto start-ups and space tech firms. I use market uncertainty to scoop up ARCC under $19 and HTGC under $14 so this is a prime buying opportunity for me. The FTX contagion didn’t last long and didn’t bring down crypto like many doomsayers predicted and I suspect this SVB banking contagion will be limited as well.
Bulls, look at TRIN. See that drop every nearly every morning? That’s you trying to frontrun a bottom/recovery/bullrun all in one, every damn day in a bear market while jerome is still angry at you.
Add somphisiqation to your tarding: $PCALL for total put/call ratio for all OCC options. $TRIN for the advance/decline ratio for the NYSE. $VVIX for the volatility of the VIX itself.
Protip regards: $PCALL for total put/call ratio for all OCC options. $TRIN for the advance/decline index for the NYSE. $VVIX for the volatility of the VIX itself.
spy closed above 2 on the TRIN indicator. That usually means 80% chance it goes up the next day but who knows in this market
Now have 3 out of 9 signals of a durable rally, up from 2 last week. Big breakout for Utility sector (DUK, DTE, SO, AEE). I bet we get a small pullback to test your will and then rally resumes. \>50% of SPY stocks with +2 standard deviation move? NO TRIN < 0.5? NO \>90% of stocks advancing? NO (getting close) \>90% of stock with advancing volume? NO (getting close) 10 day % of advancing stocks at 99% percentile? NO 10 day % of advancing volumes at 99th percentile? NO 10 day SPY price changes in 99th percentile? YES (last week) \>90% of SPY stocks >20d Moving Avg? YES (last week) \>50% of SPY stocks at 20 day highs? YES (flipped this week)
Durable rally signs are not here. \>50% of SPY stocks with +2 standard deviation move? NO TRIN < 0.5? NO \>90% of stocks advancing? NO (80ish) \>90% of stock with advancing volume? NO (80ish) 10 day % of advancing stocks at 99% percentile? NO (not close) 10 day % of advancing volumes at 99th percentile? NO (no close) 10 day SPY price changes in 99th percentile? YES \>90% of SPY stocks >20d Moving Avg? NO (tapped 89 and backed off) \>50% of SPY stocks at 20 day highs? NO
$TRIN approaching 1, let's see if it goes under and we get a PM sell off
VIX Curve Inverts in Time-Honored Bull Signal Tied to Peak Panic Four inversions in past year all coincided with market bottoms Other technical indicators also show extreme selling pressure Lu WangJanuary 21, 2022, 11:41 AM EST Selling has gotten intense enough in stocks that volatility indexes are pricing more turbulence in the here and now than in the future. The setup, known as an inverted VIX, is sometimes viewed as a positive for those hoping markets will calm. As the S&P 500 suffered its worst week since October 2020, traders are paying up for near-term protection. The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of option costs, has surged 7 points to 26 over the span, pushing its spot price above that of its three-month futures for the first time in more than a month. Such an inverted curve has occurred four other times in the past year and all coincided with market bottoms. VIX curve starts inverting amid equity selloff Stocks continued to waver Friday amid concern over Federal Reserve tightening and disappointing results from pandemic darlings like Netflix Inc. At its worst point, the Nasdaq 100 dropped as much as 2%, extending further into its correction territory. A flurry of selling orders were fired, sparking extreme readings in some technical indicators such as the TICK index and New York Stock Exchange Short-Term Trading Index, or TRIN. “Into the open today, we were looking for indications of panic readings for a more tradeable bottom ahead,” said Alon Rosin, Oppenheimer & Co.’s head of institutional equity derivatives. “Between the TICK/TRIN readings during the morning flush and VIX inversions, it is possible that fear, panic has finally arrived.” Stocks were little changed in late Friday morning trade, with the S&P 500 on track for a 3.7% decline over the shortened trading week.
TRIN closed in extreme overbought territory, so I'll be trading long with extreme caution tomorrow. Will be looking for an opportunity to short. But who knows!
Exactly why i hung up my old dildo toed gay bear boots. Normally I would have loaded up on UVXY. I mean all sectors were red, TRIN was sky rocketing, ADD/ADQDC was bearish as fuck, all the signs were there for a solid correction. Instead I grabbed SPXL and walked away. Came back up a a few hundred after the heroic comeback. Never bet aginst the SPY.
Anyone else watch $TRIN and $TRIN/Q?
Alright I'll give you a legitimate answer this time round. In most cases, almost every single dip is buyable given that you're playing a contract with a DTE of > two weeks. The three day red rule is more of a soft rule, but it holds true in most cases - there are very rarely more than three red days in a row (at least as of late). The easiest way, and my personal favorite way to tell if any given dip is buyable is using the [Arms Index (TRIN)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/arms.asp) or the [McClellan Oscillator](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mcclellanoscillator.asp). Both indicators basically tells you the general strength, and breadth of the markets. Generally, when both are extremely low (as observed on Monday), we're either going to crash (very unlikely), or reverse hard. I personally fear no crash, as I'm a perma-bull, so I used Monday to leverage myself accordingly.
$TICKS above 0 all day $VOLSPD above 0 all day $TRIN @ 0.50 all day VIX falling all day Everything is BULLISH.
Jeebus when was the last time TRIN spiked >7000
Jeebus when was the last time TRIN spiked >7000
Jeebus when was the last time TRIN spiked >7000
TRIN = measures advancing vs declining issues as measured by volume flow
probably a sucker's rally. there were signs of panic buying on the Arms Index/TRIN