UPST

infctr

UPST. Bought all the way up. Sold all the way down. Ended up rebuying low and making some back.

wingsoflight2003

$UPST is safe heaven

cbusoh66

At some point in 2021, fintechs were all the rage. PYPL and SQ (now XYZ) reached $300, AFRM was $170, even shitcos like UPST reached $400. Fin media was foaming at the mouth for the great future that awaits. Analysts were coming out with upgrades and new PTs every week. The future was fintech, some even doubted banks and Visa/Mastercard would survive. This is what awaits these sham and endlessly pumped quantum and space companies.

Party_Sundae_5304

UPST

russian_cream

By the same token there have been a lot of multibaggers and many have made crazy R off these tickers. $SPRT, $PROG, $BBBY, $UPST, $TOPS You’re spot on with a lot of these people having gambling addictions. Prob 90% of people in this sub full port their entire net worth into a single stock and join a cult/get consumed by their emotions and adrenaline just to end up holding the bag. Some basic understanding of price action, money mgmt and behavior/psychology can go a long way. Mostly money mgmt At the end of the day the market is a 0 sum game, and making decisions with incomplete info is the game we’re playing. You don’t go all in with pocket 2s and then cry when you bust out. Just dont go all in. No crying in the casino

Ok_Buffalo2027

What does UPST do

Username-Taken-1011

What stands out to me is that you're putting a lot of weight on the bearish arguments while giving much less attention to the bullish ones. That's perfectly fair if that's your view, but it does make the overall picture feel a bit tilted. Take the de novo bank license, for example. You seem to treat it as highly unlikely, but I don't think that's a foregone conclusion at all. Reasonable people can disagree on the odds. More importantly, if UPST does get a license, the impact could be massive. Lower funding costs aren't some minor detail—they're arguably the single biggest constraint on the business today, and removing that burden could fundamentally change the economics of the company. We've already seen how powerful this can be. SoFi's bank charter didn't just help around the edges—it led to a dramatic improvement in margins and transformed the economics of the business. LendingClub experienced a similarly significant benefit after becoming a bank. These aren't small examples; they're real-world cases showing how much value can be unlocked when a lending platform gains access to lower-cost deposits and funding. That's why I have a hard time viewing UPST's banking ambitions as a desperate Hail Mary. To me, it looks more like the next logical step in the company's evolution, and likely something that has been part of the long-term strategy for years rather than a last-minute attempt to solve current challenges. As for risks, the macro environment is the big one. No argument there. But macro risk is always lurking in the background, whether you're looking at UPST or almost any other lender. Your analysis seems to spend most of its time exploring what happens if everything goes wrong, while spending very little time on what happens if a few things go right. And in investing, both sides of that equation matter.

PralineTechnical5685

Run, do not stop!! 4 Pillars of ivesting: Entry - when to buy stock Risk Mg't (protect capital - stop losses)0 Profit taking strategy - don't watch profits evaporate Exit Plan - highest you think stock will go, take $ then reinvest elsewhere Motley Fool - buy hold do not sell no matter what - dividend cut, corp illegal activity, competition instead watch asset like FMC or UPST drop 90% and still issue buys. 5 year graphs - good companies stay good what a crock of crap GE bad then $4500 invest 3 years later $60,000 INTEL 60 - 17 stayed at 20 range now $100+

Username-Taken-1011

Your opinion, which you've been posting across different communities, is laid out pretty clearly, but I think it's very debatable. What stands out to me is that you're mostly focusing on the arguments against UPST while either dismissing or ignoring some of the stronger arguments in its favor. That makes the analysis feel somewhat one-sided. For example, you seem to assume that UPST won't get a de novo bank license. Maybe that's right, maybe it's not, but I don't think that's anywhere close to a settled question. And if they do get one, you're significantly underestimating what lower funding costs could do for the business. That's one of their biggest headwinds today. Just look at what happened with SoFi after getting its bank charter, or LendingClub. The improvement in margins was dramatic and completely changed the economics of the business. To me, a banking license looks like the natural next step for UPST and something that has probably been part of the long-term plan for years, not some last-ditch attempt to stay alive. The only serious risk I see here is the macro environment. But that's always on the menu, and your analysis seems to lean heavily toward the worst-case scenario without giving much consideration to the upside case.

CouchPotatoFamine

What the actual fuck, I went balls deep into UPST based on a different post here about 3 weeks ago, how am I supposed to profit from blind faith with this kind of shit upsetting the apple cart?

FacetNo6

You forget the black swan case of the SpaceX IPO drops like a dookie on the NASDAQ, mopping up retail liquidity, then tanking, taking the market and the economy with it. Warsh is forced to cut rates, but layoffs abound, and now people are desperate and turning to UPST as a last ditch play to get liquidity to throw back into 0DTE calls on $SPY. Long 1/26/27 UPST $100C

saboteursolotario

u/TargetBan made a pro UPST post, I want to know your thoughts.

saboteursolotario

Basically. I need to recapture some value. How do you see it hitting $50? With the hype on other AI related stocks, moves to defensives, and flows to bonds, where does the capital come from and how? I agree that it appears resilient at this time, but, with the trajectory of the Fed and what appears to be the miscalculation of this administration, reality is going to set in for whoever is holding. Given rising \[supply side\] oil prices and higher CPI, why would it make sense to cut rates? Inflation 2% and full employment is the goal. I mean BLS numbers are showing we're somewhat okay, but inflation is not. I imagine Kevin Warsh (though seemingly an Administration plant) will hike or keep rates the same. If we let inflation runaway, we're in deeper trouble. Just a quick note if you don't use it: the Fedwatch tool is typically precise with what the Fed does as well if you need a resource to determine what happens next. Moving forward, I don't see investors seeing any significant value in UPST frankly to justify a higher stock price. Even if revenue is strong for what they are, it's not satisfactory. What really matters is their bottom line. They'll need to 5x or 10x their bottom line. The insider buying can be wrong too. They've also declared sales recently so it's trivial in my opinion. Unless they are buying swaths of stock, it just looks like they're making an attempt. Just a thought: I think it's interesting when you're in it. However, when I take a 10x zoom out, it's more risky than it is rewarding. Risky as in the variables of success are very hard to control to protect principal while equally capturing signficant gains. For instance, if we compare MU to UPST, MU would be interesting, no?

saboteursolotario

Something to consider: SoFi had a run last year while UPST was going down.

ajsharm144

I bought Tesla in April 2019. It crashed 40% the next week (due to Elon being Elon). So I sold at a loss. The rest is history. Never bought TSLA again except for some swing trading on earnings. PLTR - on IPO day I bought a bunch and sold them on 10% gain the same day. Since then it's been a 1500% missed gain. NVDA - in 2022 when it first split. I had bought a bunch. Their whole market was gaming at the time and I believed that market will lift. But the stock stagnated after the split. I sold. Rest is history. UPST - Upstart IPOed, AI based lending, I bought a whole bunch, sold the same day with 25% gain. It went on to be 20x of what I sold at in the next year. Then interest rates got raised and it crashed back again. I have mixed feelings there. I've lost more money by showing conviction and poor risk management on ODTE options. I could've made more by showing conviction on my stock picks and just holding them.

Stallion802

Yea I’m in UPST. Been a ride.

pman6

do you guys remember the AI losers of 2021, like UPST? why is shit like UPST not pumping along with other AI?

saboteursolotario

The bank charter is UPST's last hope. If not, UPST is a money loser.

illhelpUbutbenice

ONDS, OPEN and UPST are touching me inappropriately. I deserved OPEN tbh.

Fieryhotsauce

UPST with the come back 🙏

RainieY

UPST I picked a long time ago, a small position maybe 25k at around 25$. My thesis was that credit score is an archaic way of figuring out who is trustworthy with credit, for sure AI will be more precise if you feed it quality data about the individual or the borrower. It crushed hard after financial conditions tightened after COVID, but financial conditions will eventually improve. At its core, it's a good business model and the current valuation is cheap if you look at forward P/E, PEG ratio and other metrics. I doubled down and increased my position a lot when the CEO purchased over 1 million $ worth of shares at 27.50$, and I had the opportunity to buy at the same price as him (even slightly cheaper). For NOW, I was looking for good opportunities after exiting my NVDA/AMD position. I saw that software stocks were beaten and did some research on which was the best opition, more attractive in terms of valuation and with the most growth potential. It seemed like NOW was the best bet that was also safe with minimal downside risk considering how much it had dropped. PEG ratio was under 1, forward PE at 14, good growth, healthy growing business and CEO bought 3 million worth of shares at 104.60$ and was talking about how it would become a trillion company. I saw NVDA ceo talk about servicenow and how it was an integral part of the AI ecosystem. I had the opportunity to buy cheaper than the CEO at 99$. I suspect this will get to 200$ in 1-2 years max, probably sooner. It will be revealed that AI is not replacing the company, but rather the opposite, that the company is necessary to the AI ecosystem. It will regain it's premium valuation of 40x rather than the 14x that it was priced at. Anyways, I could be wrong but I'm ready to exit at any point is things point in the other direction

krazineurons

What made you pick UPST and NOW, what thesis?

RainieY

I would say this week, it has been NOW and UPST for me. [Very crazy week, +137k in 5 days](https://imgur.com/a/FKVj4H9), probably best week ever or close. I sold all my NVDA and AMD shares, AMD at a bad time and bought ServiceNow, doubled down on a previous position in UPST and then the rest diversified in smaller positions, mostly high risk high reward but acts as a diversification as well. [My current portfolio](https://imgur.com/a/rjF881m)

Frequent-Buffalo-834

UPST calls could keep printing

Ghostehz

Took my 90% on UPST thank you very much 🤝

AussieBattler95

$UPST and $LAES easiest plays this week

Party_Sundae_5304

UPST

CouchPotatoFamine

Been spreading things around a bit with 100 share purchases of relatively risky ideas in hopes they will bounce up a bit soon. Selling some covered calls on said positions too, things like CMPS, PATH & UPST. Why those? People on here had thesis on them I found pretty sound. Oh, also loaded up on VRRM because I feel like that company was brutalized for losing a major client and think they will regain at least $4 a share in the next few months.

Ghostehz

That crazy regard who posted about UPST ain’t too shabby after all. Good job, nerd.

Ghostehz

UPST lookin good baby push us to 40 :D

RainieY

Find new opportunities. You can't ever get over missed opportunities. 2 years ago I sold NVDA at 40$ after over 100% gain in a year because it flat lined for a few months and I got impatient, a 1.5 million$ mistake. Early May this year I sold AMD pre-earnings because it had risen a lot, cost me over 200k in missed gains, but I bought other stocks that rose as well by 100k like NOW and UPST,  for example. In the end it's still 100k less.

2Martian

$PLUG is at \~$4 if they do everything right they can probably get back to $32, so not quite 10x, their margins are finally actually doing what they said theyd do when the stock rose to $30 initially. $OPEN, at $5 currently, if they do everything right, they can probably get up to $80, on road to profitibility. $UPST currently at $30, low interest rates hit again they can go back to $300, current market cap honestly makes no sense though and could 2-3x in the short term. Obviously wouldnt bet the farm on them, but they are the only 3 stocks in my portfolio that I actually do believe can 10x.

Party_Sundae_5304

UPST

illhelpUbutbenice

ASTS NOK AND UPST are all killing it on my paper port.

CoffeePorters

Ding ding ding! I went balls deep into UPST, thinking it would be the future of credit scores, without truly thinking about how much their service is really worth. Then around November/December 2021 when the bubble began to deflate, I kept buying the dip, and then when I was out of cash, I loaded up on more shares with margin. Then for the next few months I had to pour all my free cash into paying off the margin while UPST continued to sink. I fought the fed :(

cbusoh66

At some point in 2021, fintechs were all the rage. PYPL and SQ (now XYZ) reqched $300, AFRM was $170, even shitcos like UPST reached $400. Fin media was foaming at the mouth for the great future that awaits. Analysts were coming out with upgrades and new PTs every week. The future was fintech, some even doubted banks and Visa/Mastercard would survive. This what awaits these sham and endlessly pumped quantum and space companies.

visionkhawar512

**I was foolish enough to follow the advice of a group thread, bought 50 penny stocks, and I'm now down $15K. I don't urgently need the money, so I'm holding for now — but any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.** **Current positions:** * KULR — down 37% (bought at $6.13) * BBAI — down 18% (bought at $5.17) * NWTG — down 60% (bought at $2.37) * UPST — down 38% (bought at $47.15) * RVSN — down 72% (bought at $18.61) * BLBX — down 39% (bought at $4.68) * ICON — down 92% (bought at $18.47) — badly hurt by multiple reverse splits * GWAV — down 63.5% (bought at $9.72) * GCTK — down 94.6% (bought at $8.20) **I have more positions not listed here. Looking for honest, experienced advice on what to do from here.**

Evander85

Each year had a hallmark loss. 2022 was the collapse of UPST for me

carforsp

have you ever seen a stock where the product has such great reviews and love from customers but the stock price totally sucks? Yes, that stock is UPST folks.

Fun_Necessary1021

https://finviz.com/quote?t=UPST&p=d Yeah 43 is fair

dvdmovie1

> I’m just providing why I’m bullish. IMO though even if you're bullish, I think people are more willing to listen/entertain an idea if you offer a realistic portrayal of some concerns and risks (you say this: "Since obtaining its bank charter in 2022, SoFi can hold deposits and fund loans itself" - that's not appealing; you're describing something that nobody's going to want to own during a downturn.) In 2020/21, Upstart was "the new AI way to lend" and in 2022 it was "HOLY SHIT THEY SAID THEY WEREN'T GOING TO TAKE ALL THESE LOANS ON THEIR BOOK AND OMG THE MARKET FOR THESE LOANS IS FROZEN AND WHEN WILL THE STOCK STOP GOING DOWN." Fintech is exciting when times are good, not so much when times are bad - especially if it's a newer product without an extensive history in downturns (in the S-1 filing for UPST they literally said their algo didn't have a lot of experience with downturns.) Honestly, if I had to own a financial that actually makes loans, (not something that's a network like V/MA) I'd rather get/forget AXP (which is up 97% over the last 5 years while SOFI is -19%) than this. Owning AXP into a downturn isn't going to be fun either but with their customer base I'd feel better about that than SOFI. I think a lot of younger people have had good experiences with this company so they think the stock is great - it's been constently talked about on here for a while now - but their good experiences don't = good stock and I think it leads to overlooking risks. "The pitch is simple: once a customer is in the ecosystem, they rarely leave, and each product they add increases lifetime value." The question is how much value vs risk. " I’m not guaranteeing any returns." Nobody thinks you're guaranteeing returns but "only the good and none of the bad" really isn't a realistic portrayal of the business is all. Good luck.

saboteursolotario

It's matter of when the conflict resolves. Could be tomorrow. Could be 2 years from now. "Temporary" can last longer than your position can stay solvent. Or, put another way "Temporary" can last longer than Upstart's 2026 loan cohorts can avoid deterioration and whether Upstart's near-prime borrower based can hold up until it's over-whenver that is. You're timing it and timing is never a guarantee. Sure, prices are aritfiically propped, but the damage needs to be discussed. Things don't just resume back to normal lickity split. It oculd take about 6-18 months to reverse course. Don't also forget that inflation is sticky. The fed doesn't cut rates just because of a peace deal. Semis are not the onle ones propping up the market actually. You're missing energy producers, defense, and industrials. We're actually shifting away from tech and moving toward defensive/cyclicals (energy & consumer staples). You're assuming a massive rotation back into rate-sensitive names like UPST when the war resolves and yields fall much too quickly. I think you're too quick to assume that just because the private credit bubble hasn't burst previously means it won't burst now. It can still pop. Macro backdrop is worse in 2026. 50% rising gas prices, inflation back to 3.8%, Fed not cutting, and war adding $65B to the deficit. Risks are larger now, not smaller. Your assumption is based on KBRA's analysis of Upstart's ABS securitization cohorts is showing strong performance (meaning near-prime borrowers are NOT defaulting at elevated rates), then that's a reason to be bullish. How much? Not sure. Anything can change. If it degrades over the next two quarters, private credit will notice before the public does. You'll see market movement and ask why.

saboteursolotario

OP has been spam posting about UPST. You can just look up UPST or Upstart in the search and see the posts that have been made by OP.

saboteursolotario

TL;DR: It's not looking good for UPST. Operating cash burn from Q1 25 to Q1 26 is 9.9x worse YoY. Greater net loss in Q1 2026 than Q1 2025 by $4.2M. The economy is basically in shambles. We're on a path to potential staglflation. 50% higher gas prices. Inflation @ 3.8%. Real wages falling. UPST's consumer base is a major concern given this: lower middle class to middle class. Default risk may increase and who knows how bad it'll get. If UPST falls into a liquidity issue and the private credit bubble pops.... what do you think happens to UPST? Think Centerbridge, Fortress, Eltura. UPST is stretching itself. That's why it needs the bank charter. It's not that the bank charter is a logical step for the business because it's booming, but because private credit is a temprorary solution.

saboteursolotario

I think it's great to look at the microeconomics of the matter, but UPST performs (or doesn't perform) because of the macros. Operating cash burn from Q1 25 to Q1 26 is 9.9x worse YoY. Greater net loss in Q1 2026 than Q1 2025 by $4.2M. The economy is basically in shambles. We're on a path to potential staglflation. 50% higher gas prices. Inflation @ 3.8%. Real wages falling. UPST's consumer base is a major concern given this: lower middle class to middle class. Default risk may increase and who knows how bad it'll get. If UPST falls into a liquidity issue and the private credit bubble pops.... what do you think happens to UPST? Think Centerbridge, Fortress, Eltura. UPST is stretching itself. That's why it needs the bank charter. It's not that the bank charter is a logical step for the business because it's booming, but because private credit is a temprorary solution.

taffy_laffy

I'm sorry you're cutting out I can't hear what you said but yes UPST will be a 1trillion dollar company within 6 months.

solidsneeze

still waiting to hear what UPST does

philokratos1

UPST

No-Alarm3762

UPST will likely squeeze before fig 

Gekko407

Nope. UPST was up 1500% in 2021. Name plenty of stocks that were up that much and have held or recovered after.

King_Fisher99

Thought your analysis was interesting so ran it through ChatGPT. Here’s what is said - The bull thesis you’re laying out for UPST is internally coherent — and it explains why the stock has such a polarized investor base. A lot of the ingredients that historically create explosive upside are present simultaneously: heavy short interest relatively small float insider buying AI narrative rapidly improving fundamentals high operating leverage retail attention violent historical squeezes That combination can absolutely produce nonlinear moves. But there are a few important distinctions between: “This company could be worth far more long term” “The stock can squeeze massively short term” “Intrinsic value is definitely $50+ today” Those are related, but not identical. **Why your thesis has real strength** **Insider buying here is unusually meaningful** The insider purchases are notable because: they were open-market buys they were sizable they occurred after volatility management already has huge exposure That’s different from token insider purchases. Historically, clusters of meaningful insider buying in growth companies often matter more than analyst upgrades. Especially when: insiders already have concentrated exposure purchases happen during fear purchases continue lower That does strengthen the bull case materially. **The operating leverage argument is the biggest point** The strongest part of the thesis is probably this: If UPST becomes a scaled automated lending marketplace, margins could expand dramatically. A software-like underwriting platform with: automated approvals low incremental labor fee revenue scaled partner network …could become extremely profitable surprisingly fast. And you’re right that: only \~1000 employees engineering-heavy workforce automation-first model creates the possibility of enormous EBITDA leverage if originations ramp. That’s why bulls see it less as “a lender” and more as: an AI credit infrastructure platform. If that framing wins, current valuation metrics may eventually look absurdly cheap. **Why the market still discounts it** The market’s skepticism mainly comes from one thing: **The 2022 breakdown damaged credibility** UPST previously claimed its AI models were superior across cycles — but during rising rates: loan demand collapsed funding dried up defaults became a concern revenue cratered profitability disappeared That event fundamentally changed how institutions price the stock. Now the market wants proof that: the models work through stress funding partners remain durable margins are sustainable growth isn’t cyclical temporary rebound Until then, many institutions will keep assigning a discount. **About the short squeeze potential** Could UPST go from \~$28 to $100 rapidly? Mathematically: yes. Practically: it would likely require several things simultaneously: strong earnings surprise raised guidance major AI momentum market-wide falling yields/rate-cut expectations volume expansion shorts losing control technically Because the float is relatively small and short interest is elevated, price discovery can become extremely unstable upward. You already referenced the historical behavior: multiple runs toward \~$95 extreme gamma squeezes momentum cascades That history matters because traders remember it. Stocks with prior “squeeze memory” often re-enter momentum cycles faster than normal equities. **The naked shorting claim** The part I’d treat more cautiously is the certainty around “naked shorting.” High utilization and limited borrow availability do indicate: shares are heavily borrowed short demand is elevated borrow pressure exists But that alone does not conclusively prove systemic naked shorting. Sometimes: options market makers swaps exposure synthetic hedging rehypothecation mechanics can create unusual-looking dynamics without illegal naked shorting. So I’d separate: “extreme short pressure” → likely true from “massive naked short manipulation” → harder to prove conclusively. **The key thing that matters now** The next phase for UPST is probably about one question: Does it transition from “story stock” to “durably profitable platform”? If the answer becomes yes: $28 could eventually look very cheap. If the answer becomes no: the stock can remain structurally volatile for years. That’s why the stock behaves almost like a venture capital investment publicly traded in real time. The upside case is genuinely very large. The downside case still exists. And because the float is small with heavy short interest, both outcomes can happen violently.

stonksf

UPST short squeeze soon?

mis-Hap

There are a ton of stocks below their 2021 highs... even solid companies like $SOFI and $NOW are below their 2021 highs. It's mostly just AI/compute making new ATHs. Granted, UPST is still 90% below those ATHs, which is a bit unusual. But it had pumped higher than it had any right to. And then it has also performed poorly, but I think that's more to do with their loans being considered risky than company performance. I agree with OP that it will re-rate higher eventually; however, I don't personally think it's ready for that. I see $UPST as a rate cut play (and rate cuts were likely why it took off in 2021).

TargetBan

Sir this is UPST

PralineTechnical5685

Motley Fool has been around a long time, but their results have NEVER been audited. They can say anything they want to. I want to see their average results of their 200+ buy rating stocks. What the standard deviation (it has to be large with a NVDA along with 90% losses of FMC and UPST) I love to see the avg for top 25, bottom 25, mean 25, mode 25, bottom and top outliers removed, z scores, etc. Let Ernst & Young, KPMG or some other firm audit them. Motley Fool; the check is in the mail, I won't 1(&\^ in your mouth. What is INSANE with Motley Fool is lack of risk management: buy and hold blind is asinine. If you're holding a new industry like quantum ok that is going to be a wild ride but a blue-chip? There are only so many buy and hold blind stocks. I call them HUSSAH: my acronym for Hold Unless Something Stupid Asshole Happens. Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, Costco, Google: that is it. Coming close is IBM, ASML. AVGO, MA, META, V That is it holding anything else blind: YOU ARE A FOOL!!! Before getting thrown off and refunded my money for punching holes in Fool principles (they called me too disruptive, so I was silenced and refunded my money). Fool is like a religious cult: it could be as DARK as Jonestown under Jim Jones in the late 1970;s if you're unlucky to hold the right Fool picks. **The rear-view mirror - 5-year graphs**, good companies stay good companies. I posted I was buying INTEL at $19 last year. About 30 "Mario Gabelli's" posted 5-year graphs. "Look. look past performance is indicative of future performance." This is ignorance and being brainwashed by Fool theories. Geopolitical, new management. etc. things change: shit happens good and bad. **Rigid long‑term holding rules**, **overreliance on growth narratives**, **no risk‑management framework**, and **a business model that rewards optimism over accuracy**. # Rigid “hold for 5+ years” doctrine Motley Fool explicitly instructs investors to hold every pick for **at least five years**, regardless of market conditions or price structure. This eliminates tactical exits. It forces investors to ride catastrophic drawdowns. It treats all stocks as if they follow the same growth trajectory. I can list a lot of the following examples and this creates DEAD MONEY, dollars wasted that could have been saved and used somewhere else. FMC: $110 and 6 months later $12, DIS $100 covid rides to $250 after covid down to $70's (I bought at $110 with a 20% stop loss so when DIS fell my Stop was triggered at $198, 4 years later Disney $106. 04/2022 AT&T is at $35 and cuts its dividend in half, I sold that day at $34+, today T is at $25, UPST buy at $320and ride it down to $40. # No risk management — ever Their doctrine includes **no stop‑losses, no trimming, no exit strategies**, and no mechanism for acknowledging a broken thesis. User reviews repeatedly highlight this as a cause of large losses, especially during COVID‑era volatility, where subscribers report losing **\~50%** following Fool picks. This is not an accident — it’s baked into the system. I call it FOOL ZOMBIE HOARD - buy, hold 5 years no matter what, look at the 5-year graph as good companies stay good companies and bad stay bad, ride a company down to the depths off Tartarus (FMC -89.5% loss so you need a moon shot of 900% to break even).

CrackheadBobsCousin

Momentum... UPST has been on a roller coaster ride for a while now. Look at May 2023, July 2024, May 2025... they had nice runs up from those levels shortly after.

Dumb-driver

UPST 👀

kanyedidnothingwr0ng

did I fuck up buying RVI at the top? should I sell and port it into UPST?

Different_Pack_3686

UPST taking off

thupkt

But a long of UPST shares is basically looking for a company with prospects wounded by AI to be bouncing, or are you looking at this as anything more than a technical play/dead cat bounce? Seems the consensus is more the latter.

Biased_Media

Great DD, glad someone was able to post on this subreddit! UPST is insanely undervalued and exploited by short sellers. I have shares and calls. This stock could squeeze to $100 fast with the right momentum.

Master_Enthusiasm410

The short squeeze thesis here is actually coherent - 75% utilization on IBKR with 800k shares left is a dangerous setup for shorts if any catalyst triggers forced covering. UPST's model is genuinely interesting: AI-driven lending that reduces default risk by using non-traditional credit scoring. The CEO/founder buying at $27-39 recently is a strong insider confidence signal. Main risk is macro - if unemployment ticks up and loan defaults spike, their model gets stress-tested in a way the backtests haven't seen. Watching the $32-35 level closely.

Stallion802

I have 12K shares. Bought when Gu bought in November. Bought 2K more yesterday. Holding through 2026 unless it goes bonkers. Always loved UPST. Been in and out for years but I think now is the biggest opportunity since going public (hence my large position). Thanks for the post! Every rip gets shorted so we need all the help we can get.

Efficient-Fudge-3515

What % of your overall portfolio (including all liquid money and stocks you have) is your UPST position?

PralineTechnical5685

Never forget they called buy ratings on FMC in the low $100's and now it is $14 for 85% dropor UPST at $320 and now it is $28 a 90% drop, DIS a perpetual buy but done nothing in a decade. 2 things you must know before a stock purchase: an exit to take profits and an exit if the stock drops. It's buy and hold 5 years is asinine to be nice. It gives you the above results.

canadian_Biscuit

I thought purchasing UPST shares was a smart play

Slightlybadpicks

My UPST calls fucked in the anooos 😭😭😭

itslikewoow

UPST has insanely high short interest for a company that has been growing at a fast rate. Expect large gains after earnings tonight.

RunsaberSR

UPST Guy is a legend. RC is now a Keto-Clown. (Or hes doing a bit, like Sweet Dee)

itslikewoow

Really thinking UPST will rip after earnings next week. Higher than expected loan originations through the quarter, plus super high short interest.

itslikewoow

!banbet UPST 50 1w

itslikewoow

UPST is looking promising going into earnings next week. Not to mention that short interest.

itslikewoow

UPST is set to rip next week on earnings given that short interest

pineapplekiwipen

what does UPST do again

itslikewoow

Calls on UPST to close out next week. They got beaten down this week by SOFI the other day, but their earnings are next week, and several announcements have already been made around funding agreements, which was a concern for them, plus it’s super heavily shorted.

artman3211

Thanks for this great breakdown ! If you had to pick Only one between UPST and PGY which do you prefer ? UPST seems to be growing really fast.

Otherwise-Leather237

Earnings season just started, and big financial names like JPM are already posting monster numbers. With more financials reporting over the next few weeks, the stress Jamie Dimon warned about probably won’t be the market’s main concern for now. I guess $UPST is just getting started here. I’m done trying to trade every little move here — just going to sit tight and let it play out for a few weeks.

Otherwise-Leather237

Now that earnings season has kicked off and the big financial firms like JPM are already posting monster numbers, with other financials still reporting over the next few weeks, it feels like the kind of financial stress Jamie Dimon kept warning about probably won’t become the market’s main concern *at least in the near term*. So, Yes, $UPST is just getting started here. I’m done trying to trade every little move here — just going to sit tight and let it play out for a few weeks.

Uisce-beatha

There have been a lot of memorable days and weeks in the market since covid but this is up there with the 2nd and 3rd week of May in 2022 in terms of option pricing and their potential payout. That span kicked off with $.17 U puts that went from $.17 to $8.00 on Tuesday then UPST, HOOD and BROS. Thursday buying sent stocks back up a bit and volatility chilled going into the next week where WMT, TGT and a few other retail had puts that went from $.05-$.20 go to $10-$45 if bought prior to WMT reporting on Tuesday.

bbmiscOG

man I've been bagholding UPST since 2022 and that stock is literally an AI company

vARIOSpREMios

Oh just buy DOCU UPST or something they have good software

Massive-Assistant387

A little fun reading for those of you that can. Yes it's written with AI; hold my beer. **CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM. Here's what happens to your calls.** |Scenario|Headline YoY|Core YoY|Odds|SPX Does|Your Calls| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Priced In|3.2-3.5%|2.5-2.7%|45%|Fakes down, recovers|Survive. Theta wins again| |Actually Hot|3.5%+|2.8%+|20%|Drills 1.5-2.5%|Pain. Real pain| |Cooler Than Expected|<3.2%|<2.5%|25%|Rips 1-2%|We feast| |Oh God Oh No|Any|3.0%+|10%|Circuit breaker vibes|Wendy's application| February was 2.4% YoY. Consensus says 3.4-3.7% for March. Sounds terrifying until you realize oil went up 63% in one month because of Iran and everybody already knows that. The headline is cooked. It's priced in. Core is the only number that matters and the Cleveland Fed nowcast has it at 2.5%. I'm holding MOS, STNG, and UPST calls through this like a man who has already accepted his fate. Also have SPX puts as a hedge so if it goes sideways at least something prints. The move tomorrow isn't about the number. It's about whether core is hot. If core is under 2.7% we gap up by lunch. If core is 2.8%+ I'll be behind the dumpster at Wendy's looking for a frosty.

Ovta

$UPST - they are making big moves and seriously undervalued right now.

EyeTechnical7643

In late 2021 I bought a few thousand dollars worth of PTLO and UPST. Still hurts. I haven't sold though. What do you guys think?

hockeyfan1990

Not sure about 10x but TTD I can see go back to over $40. Same with UPST.

Jayhwk1978

UPST 🔥🔥🔥

Jessper

UPST

nooneinparticular246

SNAP and UPST are on my shit list. Why would you pick those? UPST has high debt and shit earnings.

Ambitious-Breath-867

LOL UPST is literally shorted by their management team. The stock maintains a short ratio around 25% to 35% for more than half year and still no sign of any rebound

Ok-Focus7254

I bought PLTR at 9ish and sold at 21 Hood at 10 and sold at 42. Then bought UPST at 300 and sold at 26 Not so Proud

wayfarer8888

I considered FOUR, SEZL, UPST. I expect any PayPal recovery to be more sluggish.

Erocdotusa

My RDDT stock did same thing. And UPST. If wall street hates the company they rug no matter the outcome

greenpride32

Amusing to see TTD and UPST on the list - they are some of the earliest adopters of AI infusing it into their services. AI will certainly cause disruption in the software space, but I see the most likely outcome being the software leaders who can adapt to using AI tools to maintain their edge will continue to lead. AI isn't replacing software, it's reducing the number of software engineers necessary for a given software project.

indyyo1

Fuck me harder UPST

dankpolyps

UPST earning was good, why is it being so oversold?

StophJS

Who remembers when Motley Fool was calling UPST a strong buy at like $350 and saying it should be a core holding? Same with Unity at $200.

Harp-Note

I came out of my UPST puts with profit!!!!

Critical-Passion5283

Why is UPST going down?

indyyo1

UPST seems like a good deal here. Didn’t even have bad earnings. 🧐

StocksStormTrooper

UPST holding on despite missing EPS by -50%, 0.17 vs 0.34 est