USG
USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund
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Our president is now blacklisting companies by fiat, a week after declaring the USG will own production in and control Venezuelan oil markets. Tell me more about how left-wing communism is the biggest threat to the country. Maga stands for absolutely *nothing*.
USG blocking frontier models - and the impact on compute revenue being surprisingly positive? My thesis:
My predictions for price action next few weeks
Buckle up Regards: Pentagon Seeks $75 Billion for Drones in Record Defense Budget
Since Trump's public outcry on Anthropic, USG now signs a defense contract with OpenAI
How do you assess risk? (Will the USG default during Trump Admin)
$EULIF: The Geopolitical HREE Masterstroke
INTC DEGEN DILIGENCE PT 3 (1/5 PORT, ~60k scalped ALL TIME)
Early af speculative Avalon Advanced Materials
The biggest reason why even bad news continues to be bullish
USG being run by private equity
Nvidia CEO Huang says bringing Blackwell AI chip to China ‘is a real possibility’
The USD must weaken and three other convictions I have. How would you invest under these assumptions? It's a sincere question and despite my best efforts I'm still 49% moron.
Nvidia’s $5.5B Write-Down Isn’t a Death Knell — It’s an Export Licensing Delay (Official SEC Filing)
Mentions
People are nuts about this on reddit. I mean USG wouldnt even let the Chinese operate TikTok lol.
Open Door earnings coming up. Let's get a New Open Army push of 100,000 investors buying 1,000 shares a week until earnings. With all the new products and partnerships they are rolling out, and the new housing push by the USG, they will start moving volume soon, and this thing will be in the $100s before you know it.
To the bears: just give up already. AI is of national security importance now. Yes, some of this financing is entering bubble territory but any issues will be swiftly dealt with by big tech and USG. You have to be stupid and/or naive to think that the US will simply let China win this race.
It won’t happen til USG starts cutting programs.
If you won’t listen to my warnings re Octobers before midterms at least listen to this - don’t buy anything over reliant in Open AI. It will be gone in 2 years unless the USG takes a stake. (But if USG takes a stake everything moons)
Anthropic is a path dependent research trying to invest enough in enterprise harnesses to make a profit, but the math doesnt work. Anthropic is lke NASA or war research. We’ll never be the same as a society, but eventually something else will accomplish the same tasks for cheaper. Eventually in AI world is no more than six months. They (OAI + Anth) are probably too big to fail, so USG will probs bail out OAI if there is a bubble pop. OAI is a better investment medium term. Anthropic may hit some kind of threshold for agi first, so if you are betting on that knock your socks off. Bad investment though. There will be hype so you can play with shorts after the initial burst I guess.
It's the Manhattan Project and the Space Race wrapped into one, but led by private sector donguses. USG will step in if the money spigot breaks.
I really think you retards don't understand, there won't be a casual healthy correction in an options dominated market. Billions of daily expiration liability ignore literally everything, until it mechanically cannot be. Until the bills do not get paid, the bonds default, the option flow stops. Literally, post GFC the financial system runs on the ample liquidity model. Which is that liquidity over discovery. So you need a liquidity event (which many have happened) that the FED or UST cannot backstop. The scale of this event is mindboggling, and covid didn't even do it, they printed 6T handed the public inflation and got away with it. Zero political consequences. Nada. Only two credible cases I can even think of: 1. USG default 2. Multiple Major AI companies default We have created an all or nothing market, and it is currently on 'all' mode.
Russian spin off is strategic for USG…
Biggest stake in OAI, one of the big 3 cloud providers, provides more tech to USG than anyone else at the table I bet.
> The same USG that was locked into literally using old soviet rockets for like over a decade? *For man-rated access to the space station Yes for one specific highly sensitive use case, they have limited vendors. We were still launching domestic rockets for everything else even after the shuttles were decommissioned.
The same USG that was locked into literally using old soviet rockets for like over a decade?
Would like to know whether this leads to the mother of all pullbacks and is there a plan that USG is working on that solves the fiscal mess or DJT and his clown army are just running around like plucked chicken and dont have the foggiest?
They matter because the market is starting to price in fiscal risk with USG assets - especially because Kwar is basically saying to the market "we ain't hiking rates" you better price in the risk bro.
As the largest holder, the market can’t absorb what they sell. This is compounded by the fact that mag 7 are dumping massive bond sales on the market and that liquidity shift is taking focus off USG bond sales.
Because 4 billion is a mouse fart in a hurricane when the backdrop is 40 trillion of USG debt. Treasury is wanting to sell more than that just to paper over the burgeoning budget deficit. Now, if he said they'd do a 100 billion x 8 long bond buy? That might attract some attention. Thinking about it overnight had people catch on that this is just a PR stunt. But of course, if they announced a meaningful move no amount of overnight rate cuts would keep money market funds from blowing out.
The purpose of the clarity act is to sell more UST. Only reason USG gives a flying fuck at all, Baldy wants stablecoin income and interest but banks are like nah dog. But its clear in there they are like "only collateral you can back it with is USD cash or treasuries."
It functionally buys them from the UST with extra steps. We just put prime brokers as the middleman. Because prime brokers have to buy unsold treasuries, then they turn around and park them in REPO. Its a truly interesting system with other banking requirements that allow the USG to force their debt into every aspect of our financial system and pretending the central bank is independent.
Greenspan ended the ability of the FED to ever reign in. The abundance model has forced infinite QE and they have no "tools" left that dont collapse the USG debt. Its why even through Powell inflation high. Metrics to track softened. They called the worst segment which would have demanded higher hikes "transitory" and let the masses eat the cost. Warsh is here with one job, pretend the FED is serious enough to not spook bond buyers, but not actually increase cost to borrow. This isnt new, financial repression is the only viable way to for governments to handling debt to gdp this high.
https://preview.redd.it/mci8l6wrvijh1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a4707ebe5ec5e23604e51afab79260fe61aafa4 Debt fueled marked. Always ends badly. We hit highest levels of debt in the stock market ever in June. Probably the single worst thing for stock markets. Market is overpriced. Total stock market evaluation sits at 236% of US GDP. Highest it has ever been. Normal levels were around 90-120%. AI mania. It’s a bubble. Everything is overvalued. It may not be extremely apparent as things like P/E seem like a normal range for NVDA, but 90% of their growth in the last few years has been fueled by borrowed money- every company buying their products have taken out loans or issued bonds to do so. So it’s not sustainable for much longer. The war in Iran impacts oil supply. We aren’t feeling it yet because we are draining our strategic reserves to keep the costs down at the pump. We are also producing a bunch of oil ourselves for exports to help keep the costs down, but it’s not the right type of oil that the US consumes the most of which is why we are still draining our reserves. Most of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer also comes through the strait. Fertilizer goes up, so will food- it already has started. This is purely for midterms. The world is also shifting away from the Petrol Dollar. The US kicked Russia of the Swift system when they invaded Ukraine. This is bad for many reasons but two main reasons- the USD will no longer be able to control prices in the global commodities market, and other countries are no longer interested in buying US treasuries. The treasury bond market is in uncharted territory. Record level debt, foreign entities are withdrawing their holdings of US treasuries which means interest rates for treasury bonds have to go up to attract new investors so the US can avoid defaulting on debt or triggering hyperinflation through printing to pay off debts. This is the real reason we are imposing such high tariffs. Global trade only works when it benefits you, if you can’t control the price any more then costs to import goods will go up significantly and for a country like the US, who exported all of their manufacturing to 3rd world countries. Tariffs force US companies to bring production back to the US. Unemployment is increasing, GDP is decreasing (only reason it appears up is AI Capex spending, but that will end very soon because it’s debt fueled), rising food/gas/energy/etc prices means less money to be invested in stock market- it also impacts investor confidence as global future will appear uncertain, and with treasury bond yields increasing there will be people moving from the stock market to the bond market. This also doesn’t really reflect what could happen to the US overall, if the strait stays closed for much longer oil and nitrogen supplies stay low, food production will get hit, less food on the shelves means shortages- also means gas shortages (less production, less energy, etc). Now, the reason why this is all being suppressed. Not being political, don’t care who you vote for or not. Trump administration and the republicans have focused on the stock market as an indicator of the economic success resulting from their control of government. If that gets compromised, if inflation soars, supplies dwindle then the administration would lose some of its voter base at the worst possible time. So tap the reserves to keep oil prices down’ish, push AI narrative and start AI initiatives, entice more money into the markets with amazing tax incentives- capital gains??? All of this to say, the market is in a bubble. The bubble is propped up massive amounts of debt and by the USG manipulation. We are on the cusp of an affordability crisis that is temporarily suppressed. When this bubble pops, and it will pop. Retail investors, who have been duped by bots/media/etc will be holding the bag all the way down. It’s not a matter of if, but when, and it will probably happen after midterms but could end up happening before. Governments can delay a little but not stop crashes. Good luck.
Realistically how reliable a source is The Hormuz Letter? Obviously the USG is not a reliable source, but I am hard pressed to just take everything said here without immense bias.
Hahahahahaha So is the USG. Join the club.
**ESCO Technologies (NYSE:ESE)** reported Q3 FY 2026 sales of **$339 million**, up 14% year over year, with organic growth of 8% and a $23 million contribution from Maritime. GAAP EPS from continuing operations rose 31% to **$1.26**, while adjusted EPS increased 38% to **$2.20**. Entered orders were **$410 million** with a 1.21 book-to-bill, driving record backlog of **$1.54 billion**. Year-to-date operating cash flow from continuing operations reached **$193 million**, up $105 million. Aerospace & Defense led segment growth with 23% higher sales and a 30.0% adjusted EBIT margin; USG and Test posted mid‑single to high‑single‑digit sales increases. ESCO agreed to acquire **Megger Group**, expected to close in Q1 FY 2027, and raised FY 2026 guidance to **$1.30–$1.33 billion** in sales and **$8.30–$8.40** in adjusted EPS. A quarterly dividend of **$0.08** per share is payable October 15, 2026. “Year to date, we have delivered double-digit organic sales growth across our aerospace, Navy, Test, and Doble businesses. This broad-based strength underscores the long-term growth dynamics across our end markets. At the same time, our backlog has increased by over $400 million year-to-date driven by momentum across our business platforms. This combination of durable growth drivers, leading market positions, and record backlog, gives us confidence in our ability to continue delivering above-market growth and we are pleased to again raise our full-year FY 2026 guidance.”
Well there kinda is because USG hates to sole-source rockets. But that’s ULA and/or BO. RKLB is fighting for 4th.
We get nothing until permit moves forward, Brownsville PFS, or USG deal/funding/offtake whatever.
Who is insuring these boats based on a $20B fund set up by the USG? Chubb https://www.reuters.com/business/chubb-announces-war-risk-coverage-support-ships-through-strait-hormuz-2026-03-20/
This is where having strong Math background helps. Assume USG has $1T in Tax Revenue and they pay $100B in TIPS interest (Assume only 10 Million have invested in TIPS) and inflation is at 3%. Official Inflation raises to 5%. Now TIPS payment is $180B (already putting a hole on deficits). Government prints more to cover the deficit. People are now scared of Inflation. Since most Americans are morons and follow your advice, they all rush to buy TIPS. From 10 Million to 20 Million people. Now TIPS payment balloons to $360B (36% of Tax Revenue). Inflation now is at 10%. TIPS payment is now $720B (72% of Tax Revenue). More people (40 Million) rush to buy TIPS. TIPS payment is $1440B. Now do you see everyone rushing to buy TIPS fucks up government, which prints more fastening the death of the currency and triggers hyperinflation?
> MSTR now trades below the value of its btc holdings and the premium that made the model work has flipped to a discount so raising fresh equity at a disc to NAV is dilutive and raising fresh debt when btc is below avg cost basis of $75,699 is expensive which leaves selling btc to service the preferred dividends as the path of least resistance and exactly what this morning's filing shows Bitcoin people remember - this why paper money is better than cryptos as a store of vale (crypto makes sense as a mode of settlement such as stable coin). More paper money can be printed on the promise of the government, say the USG - FOMC does whatever they deem necessary. This thing of strategy and bitcoin is a good real world dance of dragons show and I expect strategy to die. Strategy depends on bitcoin's price which is difficult to control unless he finds a whale (elmo?) to put the money. Bitcoin holders on the sidelines are under the shock and awe fireworks at this thing collapsing and the only belief is to hodl until it hurts. Fun. If strategy breaks, expect theta new liquidity to flow into AI
1. Structurally high inflation is a goal to deal with high debt ratios, not the first time its been done in US history. Most of it is theater to allow bond holders to be slowly robbed. 2. They cant raise it with out causing USG to likely be unable to fund itself. 3. They cant raise jt with out crashing the financial system. (Look at interventions during last rate hike cycle). The fed is neither independent, interested in their mandates, and have run loose money so long they've dulled their tools to reign in shit. Still you would be crazy to fight the people who literally poof money into existence.
> When Uncle Sam and private companies have conversations, there are firm upper limits to what the USG can really ask of Apple's lawyers Yes. Like give me 10% of the company. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html Or the government takes the whole thing. https://www.fhfa.gov/conservatorship Or the government seizes, sells it off and then keeps the proceeds for themselves. https://www.npr.org/2008/09/26/95076177/government-sells-washington-mutual-assets So yes, other than just little things like that there are super strict limits. > China's national security laws do not afford such two-way dialogue and compromise, the party gets what it wants or your CEO disappears for a few months. That's BS. The Chinese government has been trying for a long time and have made multiple demands that BYD stop the EV price war. The fact that that they have had to make multiple attempt should tell you how well BYD is listening. Which is not at all. > It is the opposite scenario in China. Again BS. Just like in the US, getting a military contract in China is a cash cow. In fact, any dealing with the Chinese government is a cash cow since the big lever the Chinese government has to do anything is to throw money at it. So if the government decides to build a highway where your house is standing, it's a lottery win. Since they will pay up to entice you to sell your house. In the US, the government will just seize it and pay you whatever it wants.
Different laws and nuance to this type of situation. When Uncle Sam and private companies have conversations, there are firm limits to what the USG asks of Apple's lawyers. China's national security laws do not afford such two-way dialogue.
USG out there acting like gatekeepers while open-source weight models are just going to scale anyway. Meanwhile, Nvidia holders are probably just popping popcorn and watching the compute revenue stack up. 🍿📈
everything went to shit when USG banned Fable 5
Microsoft just presented the DeepSeek v2 moment today didn’t they. No the USG will have to ban Chinese AI. Then all the mag7 cut Capex. lol oh boy.
Not for US market. There is room to grow when USG banned China EVs.
Oil drops and we rally massively Monday, maybe Tuesday too. Pause Wednesday for fed meeting where they will hold rates but warsh will somehow signal continued easing shortly, something about how with the deal signed we’re at a “lower risk of stagflation” so we can probably ease in the future. The minutes later on will show that he actually has 0 consensus on interest rates but he’ll def signal future easing. Probably resume rally. Thursday into late next week we drop as the sell the news and reality of the mines and oil reserves being empty and renewed buying from china probably start hitting. Then MU earnings week where memory stocks continue to go parabolic and probably bring semis with it. Oil prices high doesn’t affect AI build out much so… doesn’t matter. Also the USG is 100% taking equity stakes in labs in the next few months if not even further steps beyond that.
USG banning two Claude models, any impact on semis from government giving the sector its first ‘bad touch’, or big fat nothingburger?
Purely Musk's hand. To declare an AI a munition is probably single most stupid (and telling) thing the USG could have done.
The USG has been very good at enforcing near monopoly control of nuclear weapons technology, with only a few other great powers managing to develop it independently who they then collaborate with to keep most other nations from doing so. They're going to do the same thing here. China might be able to develop their own. They'll meter out usage of the technology in limited ways to key U.S allies, but any smaller country starts building a sovereign data center and they'll conveniently turn out to be a threat to freedom and democracy shortly after.
SPCX to buy Nvidia, merge with Tesla. Talks to build data center in Cuba. Like, all of Cuba. Gifted to the company by the USG
No one is mentioning international outer space law and future development of a legal regime that incorporates the international and US domestic law principal of "polluter pays". Mega constellations like Starlink, increaing orbital debris, and Democratic Administrations coming for payback for DOGE make the potential liability of Space X for debris events a huge risk, to Space X, to shareholders and more importantly, to US taxpayers. The OST, the Registration and Liability conventions put US taxpayers on the hook for damages caused by their nationals in outer space, to other space objects, to aircraft in flights... Space X isn't profitable, is dumping cash into a vehicle that may or may not ever work reliably, and if it fails in orbit or if their sats cause a Kessler situation, could create untold liability for both the company and the USG. I've got a degree in international aviation and outer space law and have served on USG missions and advised on commercial space...I want Space X and Amazon and RKLB to succeed...but there are huge unknowns that the physics make incredibly financially risky.
US officials have had talks about having government acquire shares in AI giants, sources say Altman has discussed w/ senior officials, including Trump. Did again recently May be *ceding* shares to USG - not a purchase Shares could go 2 dividend
Japan semiconductors were on the path to dominate the entire industry in the 90s. USA said fk that and told them they can no longer make memory chips. Gave all that business to Taiwan and Korea. USG gonna make moves again soon imo
It feels like the whole market is held up by a few companies that are "national security" interests propped up and partially owned by the USG and the only way to make money is to invest in them. Any American working with a 401k will most likely be required to invest in these companies regardless. It feels like the economy isn't open, it's a tightly controlled thing where you only get to invest in what the gov says you can invest it. Sure, you can close our your 401k, stop buying ETFs, etc. but how well does that generally work out for people? Idk what to do. I guess I'll keep shoveling my cash into the S&P since it's not like we have any other options.
With 5.25% itself, economy will suffer a lot with lay offs looming. CNBC said => 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.19%, highest since before the financial crisis. I see 5.19% for US20Y came before Year 2003, appx 23 years before. If it reaches higher than 5.25% (US20Y), faster the economical crash. USG and F E D will jump in before such things happen.
Old heads will remember the rumors about USG taking a stake during 🥭 I. I bought a couple thousand shares during the meme stock boom and have been holding. I have high hopes now.
Yes. But for OPs purposes it's the difference between US and Canadian inflation rates that matter. US inflation has been running about 40% higher than Canadian inflation over the last 5 years which is why USD is devaluing faster than CAD. Nothing in current American policy statements points to this changing in the near future as the USG continues to increase deficit spending and pressures the Fed to lower interest rates.
The entire system is plumbed to print money and go up. Unless you see a mechanism for this to collapse (which I struggle to, because the FED literally poofs infinite liquidity into existence). So the only credible collapse I see is bond market throwing a fit because they stop trusting USD, or the USG actually defaulting on payments. Otherwise the FED and UST have free reign to issue debt and poof USD into existance as long as the global markets at large accept that.
No idea. Severe liquidity issues at the FED or USG level probably. FED keeps raising tis balance sheet and can't unload with out causing REPO markets to freak the fuck out. And SEC literally just on march 30th 2026, by exclusion, expanded to allow much of the main underlying traded as hedges for these options strategies to be REPO collateral.... so they expanded liquidty for this system by allow the FED to literally POOF the cash into existence as needed to keep operations going. I assume it goes until they can't do that.
>cutting interest rates beyond justified level You are forgetting about where they just change the justificaiton. Warsh already gearing that up by indicating he would prefer to use the trimmed mean inflation; which would mean inflation reports closer to 2.3%. And wow suddenly lower rates are justified. The FED ever since GFC has been playing a game of print what ever is needed to keep financial system liquidity "abundant" and keep yields at rates USG can run their debt machine; but also having to say serious sounding things for the bond market. Yet their actions are clear, financial repression baby.
People were skeptical about their foundy. Also their CPUs were not in demand. There are several drivers of this price movemnt: 1. During earnings call the CFO said that everything is SOLD OUT. Doesnt matter if AMD is better or not. Everything is in tremendous demand. It doesnt matter if you believe Intel is 2nd best or 3rd best or whatever. 2. Extreme shortage of Fabs. All TSMC fabs are completely booked so again SOLD OUT. The Inital theory was that no one will use intel's fabs now the new theory is that all fabs will be 100% utilized. 3. Intel's process node 18A is actually good. Paper was new 18 A node was leaked out and it looks pretty good. 4. Intel's recent processor lineup Panther Lake is best in the market, laptops appear to be sold out. Xe3 architecture appears to be pretty solid 5. EMIB technology turned out to be a big deal and revenue will be in the Billions. 6. Intel has brought many advanced EUV machines which TSMC did not buy and it appears that they are a step ahead of TSMC. 7. Then the Intel partner ships that you guys are already aware USG, Nvidia, Terafab then these Fab rumors. 8. Then there is this speculation that USG wants chips produced on US soil 9. Then MY own Specualtion is that Pat G the former CEO of Intel is working with US govt and advising them. USG didnt give Spirit $500 million but they did a $150 million grant to Pat G's starrtup company
Their business is subject to export controls by the USG
Think of it based on demand and overhead. For the average consumer to burn a NVIDIA GPU you could add it to **any** public cloud data center and try to help meet current demand from Enterprise customers who are purchasing "Reserved" compute. Your data center options are over 40+ across continents and you will get revenue. You have a talent pool that can be fulfilled with any general labor pool. For Sovereign Cloud offerings (AWS Gov Cloud / Azure Gov) the requirements adjust heavily due to regulation issued by U.S. Government. It's one of many reasons why there is a cost markup for any compute service in the federal regulated cloud. Your labor pool just became exclusive to U.S. Citizen + Green Card holders but it's usually only U.S. Citizen. Now enter classified clouds and the overhead in maintaining not just a public data center but having to invest heavily into the USG ecosystem and hoping that someone in the classified community is able to benefit from the compute. And sometimes those plans fall through because Congress....fails to pass a budget. So based on this brief and very curt explanation above, public cloud hyperscalers have to balance hardware shipments in the most difficult way possible.
treasuries are also ass. Their demand is not yield driven it is regulation and obligation driven now. Its the only reason USG considering stablecoin USD variants in genius, forces buying USTs. No one is fleeing to lose to inflation.
You think people are going to flee to cash looking down the barrel of USG "borrowing" (read: printing) multiple trillions of dollars per year and accelerating? We've effectively printed 20 trillion dollars since COVID six years ago. That's like all the Mag 7 companies put together. In six years. Now add in oil prices driving MORE inflation on top of that. Sorry, but TINA. You have to be in companies earning money in rapidly inflating dollars if you wish to maintain your purchasing power and maybe earn a couple of shekels on top of that. Capture some of the blast of money USG is firehosing into the economy. And it's not just the US, every major economy is governed by people hellbent on debauching their currency harder than the next guy. Oil shocks used to matter when the consumer used to matter. Now only the top 20% are driving world economies. The rest experience pain from inflation and oil shocks, but don't really drive earnings. Some day that concentration will be a problem, but that day is not today. People will still have to commute to work at $7/gallon, $14/gallon, $50/gallon. They might have to put 3 generations in a 2br city apartment, like elsewhere in the world, but they'll do it. Just keep an eye on trends and there's always money to be made and lost.
ALL MARKET FEARS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED: - STRAIT IS VERY NOT STRAIGHT AND INDEED GHEY - FED CANNOT MOVE WITH OUT FUCKING USG OR THE ECONOMY THE TOOLS ARE BLUNT EXPECT INFLATION - INFLATION IS COMING BACK - AI IS NOT PROVIDING REAL PRODUCTIVITY - REAL AI BUILD OUT BOTTLENECKS MEAN SCALERS GETTING LESS FOR THE SAME CAPEX SPEND - OPENAI POOR LMAO - MY CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN - GROWTH IS CIRCULAR And because of all this, we haved removed any uncertainity, new ATH incoming.
The data is clear for their mandates, raise rates. The problem they face is they need to appear serious about yield and monetary control for bond holders; while also not allowing yield to cause USG default. This is what that looks like. "holding pattern on yield" "stealth QE on the backend"
FED in a tough spot of needing to not let USG default and economy collapse, while also appearing serious enough to bond holders so they continue to get robbed by the surpressed yield. It was theorized this point would come in the before time by the Ron of the Paul. Many wondered if that was real, MMTs said nuh uhhs, but looks like its uhh huhhhs. TBH I dunno if Warsh can walk that line like Papa Powell.
USG has a 10% stake. Good enough for me, house always wins
Chyna is junk regardless how good they represent. When you buy anything Chyna, you basically bet against USG.
oh god the million dollar question, at this point with the FED backstop functionally the only clear collapse mechanism I can see is USG debt default. Otherwise as long as people accept poofing dollars out of thin air anytime the banking and financial institution needs them then they don't face a crash, as all crashes with out fail (even if the trigger mechanism is different) are liquidity crunches. Potentially bad earnings? But even then who goddamn knows, bad earnings seem to just increase volality which in turn our market plumbing is monetization of volatility which in turns makes it generating paper value in markets which then help prevent discovery. I have been trying to work this out for a few years now, and everytime I think its approaching a breaking point more liqudity is opened up. IE the sec ruling at the exact time the 0dte dealers were suddenly facing declining liquidity in collaterals. And I say this not a brag but as support of how goddamn difficult this to work out, I am a multimillionare with extensive market exposure and experience from the last 20 years. Advisors and money managers that I have worked with for decades and have worked with my family for decades, have no fucking clue what is happening. As outside of the shitposting and degeneration I am here for, I do have serious investmetns I am trying to long term protect that can't exactly or reasonably just "go cash" and what I am finding is the everything is derivatized and interlinked; and I am struggling to find real downside protection as I view the market and general asset pricing simply devoid of price discovery. But think most large accounts and groups are facing this issue, and its forcing them to chase yield and return... which is forcing them into mainly being the counter party in option dealing strategies or loaning collateral for it. Which in turn is making this worse as there are no clear areas to flee to. I really think no one has a clear view except for the major major players running the plumbing.
Look at the global chipmaking sector. TSMC, Samsung, SMIC all are backed by direct or indirect government equity. The CCP has government board, privileged information rights, unique voting rights. The USG has none. Rather, intel investment is a replication of the TSMC model.
Intel almost back at its ATH from nearly 30 years ago, and all it took was an authoritarian fasc*st pivot by the USG and a direct investment
Dear Microsoft, please see attached my 3 step strategy to get back to $560/share Step 1. Tell USG you will buy Anthropic to put their fears to rest Step 2. Negotiate a deal for like 2 year Step 3. Either buy them or say it’s not very good after all
Insider trading is actually official USG policy now
I am right, and not because im some genius but because the FED openly admits this issue and has multiple times since 2008. Its why Warsh is just another lip service. They are so fucking fucked. The fundamental policy change was the 2008 from scare reserve to ample reserve and at this point with out reforming the entire financial (especially banking) the FED cannot withdraw this liquidity. Maybe once upon a time it was reasonable, but I would now argue that the time frame to not shock the market has become long enough that there will always be a "crisis" to intervene and the public wants intervention (most dont understand long term it makes them poor). You can look at 2019 repo market overnight 10% spike at about 3.8T as FED was trying to offload, expectation was they were no where near the liquidity floor yet boom there it was. That liqudity floor is now 6T estimated. USG fiscal policy has also become so fucking insane that the FED attempting to truly reign in monetary policy will default the USG. So you have a public that demands intervention and subsidization in both monetary and fiscal policy, a government that is running multi trillion annual deficit, and a financial system that will in the most literal sense collapse with out major reformation and a slow walk down that is in direct conflict with the operating needs of the USG and public. The intention is only to expand this, a recent example to support the changes in market plumbing flow especially around 0dte and generally short dated options, has been allowing ie S&P 500 stocks and indexes (if not overleveraged) to be collateral in repo markets. Literally as we get lip service from fiscal/monetary policy setters about how this is out of control they are plumbing more shit in to it.
USG = Greatest Terrorist State
As kobe bryant might say, "is the job finished? Job not finished. " Intel is only partway through its turnaround as fab. Could stock pull back? Yea. But I think forget these moves. When it has its fab running full steam, itll be at 120 at least. Plus you have LBT and all his connections and leadership at the head of one of two or three companies with its abilities in the world, desperately needed by the USG and in the midst of the AI revolution? Where are you going to find such an opportunity? You gonna buy some beat up software company?
For the "asked chatGPT" crowd here are the sources sec edgar source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) 1. $4.5B Inventory Hit: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges` * quote: *"In April 2025, the USG informed us that it requires a license for export to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries... As a result of these requirements, we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished."* 1. 25% H200 Tariff: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges`. * quote: *"In February 2026, the USG granted a license that would allow us to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers. To date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program... The license requires that the H200s go through an inspection process in the United States prior to any shipment to the customer. As a result, any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States."* 1. nancy pelosi's nvda sale filing date: 2025-12-24. amount: $1,000,001 - $5,000,000. source: [https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public\_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf) So go check the sec edgar link yourself before you call 'AI' on everything that has more than two sentences of data
For the "asked chatGPT" crowd here are the sources sec edgar source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) 1. $4.5B Inventory Hit: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges` * quote: *"In April 2025, the USG informed us that it requires a license for export to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries... As a result of these requirements, we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished."* 1. 25% H200 Tariff: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges`. * quote: *"In February 2026, the USG granted a license that would allow us to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers. To date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program... The license requires that the H200s go through an inspection process in the United States prior to any shipment to the customer. As a result, any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States."* 1. nancy pelosi's nvda sale filing date: 2025-12-24. amount: $1,000,001 - $5,000,000. source: [https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public\_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf) So go check the sec edgar link yourself before you call 'AI' on everything that has more than two sentences of data
I work in this industry. The USG is expecting 1000 commercial launches per year by 2030ish. People have no idea how much shit we are about to put in space.
To re-state what I have said many times, the USG undertook a massive Quantitative Easing strategy during COVID. Unless you know something I don't about their ability to print oil, there is absolutely zero chance that a disruption to 10% (after reroutings) of one of the most important commodities to human civilization will not have a daisy chain impact. In other words, we can't print our way out of this, and 2022 Russia/Ukraine or 1970s Arab Oil Embargo is a much more appropriate analogy than COVID.
If I were the USG I simply wouldn't put an alcoholic psychopath failed national guard major in charge of the largest bureaucracy in the history of the world.
Imagine when the USG decides to stop printing money and it’s fully digital an all they need to do is click a button. Instant trillion dollar increase in money supply.
Here is an idea, i know this will piss you off because you sound like you are jewish. If Israel wants u.s. military protection, than U.S. should just annex Israel and they can become another state paying taxes like the rest of us directly to the USG. The U.S. tax payer now gets an ROI, Israel gets their protection and win win for everyone.
There is a company called Interlune that is working with USG to create the tech to harvest it. Interlune.. Can't invest it unless you are a U.S. accredited investor.
So much wildly contradictory information coming out of every USG orifice.
SpaceX has done incredible things, but a $1.75T valuation is really high. I'm very bullish on space in general and have quite a chunk in RKLB, and a much smaller chunk in ASTS. I see RKLB as the #2 to SpaceX, and I suspect the USG and others are chomping to diversify their launch. RKLB is the answer, even more so when they get Neutron. And RKLB is much bigger than just launch. Also, I'm not convinced Elon's idea of orbital data centers is gonna fly.
Buying yuge calls tomorrow on this LOL. USG prolly gonna take a stake in this as well soon....
You are flopping all around here. You said the USG's objective is regime change. That will take a long time. Yes? In the meantime, oil is not flowing out of Hormuz. Yes?
The goal is to eliminate the islamic republic who refuses to sell oil to the u.s. for u.s. dollars, and replace with a U.S. puppet who will play ball. The timeline on that is dependant. Iraq took years, Libya took months, Venezuela took days. It really depends. In the end, USG will secure the oil because we don't have any other choice at the moment. Solar power won't cut it just yet.
Lmao, this administration is apparently using the US treasury to intervene in the oils futures markets. Head of CME warned Trump administration that they risk "biblical disaster" if they intervene. https://www.ft.com/content/823657f2-4f8b-4325-88db-fbbdba6c9e17 WTF, the USG holding naked shorts on oil? I guess when this blows up it will be the most epic loss post on WSB. At least the USG can print $2 trillion to cover the loss.
Yes, the market and especially traders always get it right. It might end well, but right now it seems like the USG was overwhelmed that Iran is retaliation in the way they do. The rest will be seen
Independent of the USG's subsequent actions, are you saying vengeful Iranian-backed terrorist attacks are not any more likely now?
Platinum is too rare and looks too similar to be a monetary metal. It's why it's trading sideways. India and China are hoarding as much gold and silver as they can due to the PMs history and utility as being rare and scare enough to distribute as currency while being representative of tangible value. And throughout antiquity, silver has followed the ratio of the supply of both PMs because demand was constant. Both metals will be persistently in high demand due to the need of a tangible hard asset to hedge against fiat and USG volatility, and thus will meet physical ratios, as it did throughout the history of man
The CLARITY Act will kill the basis behind crypto as a decentralized, anonymous currency. Basically, it'll be used to make a pseudo-digital dollar... But as the real price of crypto heads to $0 (90% of all crypto projects have completely collapsed) the infrastructure will remain intact for USG to essentially build their own digital dollar separate from the speculation that currently drives crypto prices skyhigh. Coinbase, FTX, Binance were all vehicles used by the banks to profit off of retail by arbitraging crypto throughout the various exchanges. The arbitrage has disappeared, so there's even less reason to keep institutional money around- not to mention the private credit blowup that forces liquidation events, and the first thing to cash in are high risk assets like crypto. Neither of these exchanges were anonymous. Crypto as a project has fundamentally and spectacularly failed to be a hedge against fiat, and is now facilitating its transformation to be even more pervasive in our society
Has the USG ever designated a US company as a supply chain risk?
I think it's the fact that the USG can strong arm a private company over what essentially is a failed negotiation to buy services is what's so novel here. If this is true, and that's a big if, has there ever been a situation where the USG goes after a private company like this?
They’re also going to sue the government. USG essentially just blackmailed them and then retaliated on them. And publicly disclosed it. Idiots…
I dont care what they own. Taking away their money means 2 things. 1.) If the USG can take theirs cause "iTs NoT fAiR iTs UnEhIcAl " then they can take mine. 2.) Taking away their money wont mean USG is giving it to me lol. So it just means you want everyone to be at your financial level
I've seen it first hand myself. I know someone who repeatedly bought cars in New York and drove them to Virginia to sell to them to CVNA for thousands more than they just paid in a prearranged sale. Further, it looks to me like they spend at least $5 million each to build their ridiculous car vending machine buildings. Amortize that cost over 20 years with interest and divide it by the number of cars per year each location is selling and it's a meaningful cost versus the dealer selling on a dirt lot. I can't imagine it's cheap to insure or repair these facilities either. It doesn't add any value to me personally but I'm sure lots of people are impressed by it and somehow equate that fancy operation to better cars being sold. The one near me will be empty one day and full the next. I have no idea what they are doing with the cars but I don't think they are selling them and just moving them around looks expensive. I feel like what you are calling out about Carvana is true to some extent in many of the tech companies. TSLA is the worst offender. I'll spare you the full breakdown but it doesn't take an analyst to figure out there's no way to justify its valuation based on reported results or anything actually in the pipeline for future revenue. The hyperscalers, AI ,and chip makers are all investing in each other, with very little real external revenue, and few prospects for any materializing. Maybe they are counting on a great reset where crypto or CBDCs and the compute power to maintain them replaces the entire financial system as we know it. Companies fire most of their white collar employees relying on compute to replace them all, at which increase their dependence on the data centers, giving them greater pricing power. The third possibility I see is that they are positioning themselves for a future of AGI with exponentially greater compute requirements. However, most people who know anything about the matter will tell you that is still years away. If Moore's law is even close to being predictive, the hardware in these centers will likely be obsolete before that time comes and certainly before their loans are paid off. The final possibility is that the tech industry as a whole can spend with wreckless abandon because it knows the USG will bail out the whole industry, just like it did with the banks and auto makers. Too big to fail and all of that BS. The problem is that I don't think any of these scenarios justifies the cost and scale of the data center build out being made. It all looks speculative to me. So CVNA looks to me like just another one of the modern grifts, a game of musical chairs just waiting for the music to stop for the last time. Someone will eventually be a bag holder and my money is that it won't be the Garcia's.
"Clarity Act will lift bitcoin price, Says Treasury Secretary Bessent" Oh I'm sorry I am trying to remember what obligation the US Treasury has for anything that isn't financing USG and maintaining USD. How did we end up surrounded by these clowns.
No idea but being able to sell 100 years of debt at 1% from 10 year just means that investors consider Google more credit worthy than the USG which can literally print dollars.
There is no way for the USG to pay off the debt other than to inflate the debt away
I'm aware, but the stock is too heavily priced in them succeeding with recent and expected future launches & competition. Given SpaceX shenanigans, especially with Elon's forced merger with them and XAI the space sector is not looking like a stable sector. Precious metal prices aside, it's 90% dependent on USG subsidies to survive. Sure, you do have commercial customers like Apple, but if MangoMan decides to have a spat with Elon, there goes the industry's revenue. XAI is a massive money sink with the exponential cost of datacenters too... ASTS, RocketLab, and SpaceX are all tied at the hip.
It’s not his the military. I know someone in charge of cybersecurity for an entirely different USG organization. When I mentioned PLTR he rolled his eyes and was basically told by his boss to “find a use for Palantir.” Theres so shame in the grift anymore. Not that here ever really was.
Yeah absolutely possible, my counterpoint to this is if you look at the entire existance of almost any government, most certainly the USG. Once money is in a budget you need an act of god to remove it.
They will probably get back stopped by the USG at some point due to ellisons trump ties. I fully expect this to happen on some level... sadly... But yeah I wouldn't touch the stock personally.
I imagine it would require selling cars to be a car company. With the massive downturn in Tesla sales (to customers, not just X, Space X, or the USG), this was inevitable.