USG
USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund
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Buckle up Regards: Pentagon Seeks $75 Billion for Drones in Record Defense Budget
Since Trump's public outcry on Anthropic, USG now signs a defense contract with OpenAI
How do you assess risk? (Will the USG default during Trump Admin)
$EULIF: The Geopolitical HREE Masterstroke
INTC DEGEN DILIGENCE PT 3 (1/5 PORT, ~60k scalped ALL TIME)
Early af speculative Avalon Advanced Materials
The biggest reason why even bad news continues to be bullish
USG being run by private equity
Nvidia CEO Huang says bringing Blackwell AI chip to China ‘is a real possibility’
The USD must weaken and three other convictions I have. How would you invest under these assumptions? It's a sincere question and despite my best efforts I'm still 49% moron.
Nvidia’s $5.5B Write-Down Isn’t a Death Knell — It’s an Export Licensing Delay (Official SEC Filing)
Mentions
No one is mentioning international outer space law and future development of a legal regime that incorporates the international and US domestic law principal of "polluter pays". Mega constellations like Starlink, increaing orbital debris, and Democratic Administrations coming for payback for DOGE make the potential liability of Space X for debris events a huge risk, to Space X, to shareholders and more importantly, to US taxpayers. The OST, the Registration and Liability conventions put US taxpayers on the hook for damages caused by their nationals in outer space, to other space objects, to aircraft in flights... Space X isn't profitable, is dumping cash into a vehicle that may or may not ever work reliably, and if it fails in orbit or if their sats cause a Kessler situation, could create untold liability for both the company and the USG. I've got a degree in international aviation and outer space law and have served on USG missions and advised on commercial space...I want Space X and Amazon and RKLB to succeed...but there are huge unknowns that the physics make incredibly financially risky.
US officials have had talks about having government acquire shares in AI giants, sources say Altman has discussed w/ senior officials, including Trump. Did again recently May be *ceding* shares to USG - not a purchase Shares could go 2 dividend
Japan semiconductors were on the path to dominate the entire industry in the 90s. USA said fk that and told them they can no longer make memory chips. Gave all that business to Taiwan and Korea. USG gonna make moves again soon imo
It feels like the whole market is held up by a few companies that are "national security" interests propped up and partially owned by the USG and the only way to make money is to invest in them. Any American working with a 401k will most likely be required to invest in these companies regardless. It feels like the economy isn't open, it's a tightly controlled thing where you only get to invest in what the gov says you can invest it. Sure, you can close our your 401k, stop buying ETFs, etc. but how well does that generally work out for people? Idk what to do. I guess I'll keep shoveling my cash into the S&P since it's not like we have any other options.
With 5.25% itself, economy will suffer a lot with lay offs looming. CNBC said => 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.19%, highest since before the financial crisis. I see 5.19% for US20Y came before Year 2003, appx 23 years before. If it reaches higher than 5.25% (US20Y), faster the economical crash. USG and F E D will jump in before such things happen.
Old heads will remember the rumors about USG taking a stake during 🥭 I. I bought a couple thousand shares during the meme stock boom and have been holding. I have high hopes now.
Yes. But for OPs purposes it's the difference between US and Canadian inflation rates that matter. US inflation has been running about 40% higher than Canadian inflation over the last 5 years which is why USD is devaluing faster than CAD. Nothing in current American policy statements points to this changing in the near future as the USG continues to increase deficit spending and pressures the Fed to lower interest rates.
The entire system is plumbed to print money and go up. Unless you see a mechanism for this to collapse (which I struggle to, because the FED literally poofs infinite liquidity into existence). So the only credible collapse I see is bond market throwing a fit because they stop trusting USD, or the USG actually defaulting on payments. Otherwise the FED and UST have free reign to issue debt and poof USD into existance as long as the global markets at large accept that.
No idea. Severe liquidity issues at the FED or USG level probably. FED keeps raising tis balance sheet and can't unload with out causing REPO markets to freak the fuck out. And SEC literally just on march 30th 2026, by exclusion, expanded to allow much of the main underlying traded as hedges for these options strategies to be REPO collateral.... so they expanded liquidty for this system by allow the FED to literally POOF the cash into existence as needed to keep operations going. I assume it goes until they can't do that.
>cutting interest rates beyond justified level You are forgetting about where they just change the justificaiton. Warsh already gearing that up by indicating he would prefer to use the trimmed mean inflation; which would mean inflation reports closer to 2.3%. And wow suddenly lower rates are justified. The FED ever since GFC has been playing a game of print what ever is needed to keep financial system liquidity "abundant" and keep yields at rates USG can run their debt machine; but also having to say serious sounding things for the bond market. Yet their actions are clear, financial repression baby.
People were skeptical about their foundy. Also their CPUs were not in demand. There are several drivers of this price movemnt: 1. During earnings call the CFO said that everything is SOLD OUT. Doesnt matter if AMD is better or not. Everything is in tremendous demand. It doesnt matter if you believe Intel is 2nd best or 3rd best or whatever. 2. Extreme shortage of Fabs. All TSMC fabs are completely booked so again SOLD OUT. The Inital theory was that no one will use intel's fabs now the new theory is that all fabs will be 100% utilized. 3. Intel's process node 18A is actually good. Paper was new 18 A node was leaked out and it looks pretty good. 4. Intel's recent processor lineup Panther Lake is best in the market, laptops appear to be sold out. Xe3 architecture appears to be pretty solid 5. EMIB technology turned out to be a big deal and revenue will be in the Billions. 6. Intel has brought many advanced EUV machines which TSMC did not buy and it appears that they are a step ahead of TSMC. 7. Then the Intel partner ships that you guys are already aware USG, Nvidia, Terafab then these Fab rumors. 8. Then there is this speculation that USG wants chips produced on US soil 9. Then MY own Specualtion is that Pat G the former CEO of Intel is working with US govt and advising them. USG didnt give Spirit $500 million but they did a $150 million grant to Pat G's starrtup company
Their business is subject to export controls by the USG
Think of it based on demand and overhead. For the average consumer to burn a NVIDIA GPU you could add it to **any** public cloud data center and try to help meet current demand from Enterprise customers who are purchasing "Reserved" compute. Your data center options are over 40+ across continents and you will get revenue. You have a talent pool that can be fulfilled with any general labor pool. For Sovereign Cloud offerings (AWS Gov Cloud / Azure Gov) the requirements adjust heavily due to regulation issued by U.S. Government. It's one of many reasons why there is a cost markup for any compute service in the federal regulated cloud. Your labor pool just became exclusive to U.S. Citizen + Green Card holders but it's usually only U.S. Citizen. Now enter classified clouds and the overhead in maintaining not just a public data center but having to invest heavily into the USG ecosystem and hoping that someone in the classified community is able to benefit from the compute. And sometimes those plans fall through because Congress....fails to pass a budget. So based on this brief and very curt explanation above, public cloud hyperscalers have to balance hardware shipments in the most difficult way possible.
treasuries are also ass. Their demand is not yield driven it is regulation and obligation driven now. Its the only reason USG considering stablecoin USD variants in genius, forces buying USTs. No one is fleeing to lose to inflation.
You think people are going to flee to cash looking down the barrel of USG "borrowing" (read: printing) multiple trillions of dollars per year and accelerating? We've effectively printed 20 trillion dollars since COVID six years ago. That's like all the Mag 7 companies put together. In six years. Now add in oil prices driving MORE inflation on top of that. Sorry, but TINA. You have to be in companies earning money in rapidly inflating dollars if you wish to maintain your purchasing power and maybe earn a couple of shekels on top of that. Capture some of the blast of money USG is firehosing into the economy. And it's not just the US, every major economy is governed by people hellbent on debauching their currency harder than the next guy. Oil shocks used to matter when the consumer used to matter. Now only the top 20% are driving world economies. The rest experience pain from inflation and oil shocks, but don't really drive earnings. Some day that concentration will be a problem, but that day is not today. People will still have to commute to work at $7/gallon, $14/gallon, $50/gallon. They might have to put 3 generations in a 2br city apartment, like elsewhere in the world, but they'll do it. Just keep an eye on trends and there's always money to be made and lost.
ALL MARKET FEARS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED: - STRAIT IS VERY NOT STRAIGHT AND INDEED GHEY - FED CANNOT MOVE WITH OUT FUCKING USG OR THE ECONOMY THE TOOLS ARE BLUNT EXPECT INFLATION - INFLATION IS COMING BACK - AI IS NOT PROVIDING REAL PRODUCTIVITY - REAL AI BUILD OUT BOTTLENECKS MEAN SCALERS GETTING LESS FOR THE SAME CAPEX SPEND - OPENAI POOR LMAO - MY CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN - GROWTH IS CIRCULAR And because of all this, we haved removed any uncertainity, new ATH incoming.
The data is clear for their mandates, raise rates. The problem they face is they need to appear serious about yield and monetary control for bond holders; while also not allowing yield to cause USG default. This is what that looks like. "holding pattern on yield" "stealth QE on the backend"
FED in a tough spot of needing to not let USG default and economy collapse, while also appearing serious enough to bond holders so they continue to get robbed by the surpressed yield. It was theorized this point would come in the before time by the Ron of the Paul. Many wondered if that was real, MMTs said nuh uhhs, but looks like its uhh huhhhs. TBH I dunno if Warsh can walk that line like Papa Powell.
USG has a 10% stake. Good enough for me, house always wins
Chyna is junk regardless how good they represent. When you buy anything Chyna, you basically bet against USG.
oh god the million dollar question, at this point with the FED backstop functionally the only clear collapse mechanism I can see is USG debt default. Otherwise as long as people accept poofing dollars out of thin air anytime the banking and financial institution needs them then they don't face a crash, as all crashes with out fail (even if the trigger mechanism is different) are liquidity crunches. Potentially bad earnings? But even then who goddamn knows, bad earnings seem to just increase volality which in turn our market plumbing is monetization of volatility which in turns makes it generating paper value in markets which then help prevent discovery. I have been trying to work this out for a few years now, and everytime I think its approaching a breaking point more liqudity is opened up. IE the sec ruling at the exact time the 0dte dealers were suddenly facing declining liquidity in collaterals. And I say this not a brag but as support of how goddamn difficult this to work out, I am a multimillionare with extensive market exposure and experience from the last 20 years. Advisors and money managers that I have worked with for decades and have worked with my family for decades, have no fucking clue what is happening. As outside of the shitposting and degeneration I am here for, I do have serious investmetns I am trying to long term protect that can't exactly or reasonably just "go cash" and what I am finding is the everything is derivatized and interlinked; and I am struggling to find real downside protection as I view the market and general asset pricing simply devoid of price discovery. But think most large accounts and groups are facing this issue, and its forcing them to chase yield and return... which is forcing them into mainly being the counter party in option dealing strategies or loaning collateral for it. Which in turn is making this worse as there are no clear areas to flee to. I really think no one has a clear view except for the major major players running the plumbing.
Look at the global chipmaking sector. TSMC, Samsung, SMIC all are backed by direct or indirect government equity. The CCP has government board, privileged information rights, unique voting rights. The USG has none. Rather, intel investment is a replication of the TSMC model.
Intel almost back at its ATH from nearly 30 years ago, and all it took was an authoritarian fasc*st pivot by the USG and a direct investment
Dear Microsoft, please see attached my 3 step strategy to get back to $560/share Step 1. Tell USG you will buy Anthropic to put their fears to rest Step 2. Negotiate a deal for like 2 year Step 3. Either buy them or say it’s not very good after all
Insider trading is actually official USG policy now
I am right, and not because im some genius but because the FED openly admits this issue and has multiple times since 2008. Its why Warsh is just another lip service. They are so fucking fucked. The fundamental policy change was the 2008 from scare reserve to ample reserve and at this point with out reforming the entire financial (especially banking) the FED cannot withdraw this liquidity. Maybe once upon a time it was reasonable, but I would now argue that the time frame to not shock the market has become long enough that there will always be a "crisis" to intervene and the public wants intervention (most dont understand long term it makes them poor). You can look at 2019 repo market overnight 10% spike at about 3.8T as FED was trying to offload, expectation was they were no where near the liquidity floor yet boom there it was. That liqudity floor is now 6T estimated. USG fiscal policy has also become so fucking insane that the FED attempting to truly reign in monetary policy will default the USG. So you have a public that demands intervention and subsidization in both monetary and fiscal policy, a government that is running multi trillion annual deficit, and a financial system that will in the most literal sense collapse with out major reformation and a slow walk down that is in direct conflict with the operating needs of the USG and public. The intention is only to expand this, a recent example to support the changes in market plumbing flow especially around 0dte and generally short dated options, has been allowing ie S&P 500 stocks and indexes (if not overleveraged) to be collateral in repo markets. Literally as we get lip service from fiscal/monetary policy setters about how this is out of control they are plumbing more shit in to it.
USG = Greatest Terrorist State
As kobe bryant might say, "is the job finished? Job not finished. " Intel is only partway through its turnaround as fab. Could stock pull back? Yea. But I think forget these moves. When it has its fab running full steam, itll be at 120 at least. Plus you have LBT and all his connections and leadership at the head of one of two or three companies with its abilities in the world, desperately needed by the USG and in the midst of the AI revolution? Where are you going to find such an opportunity? You gonna buy some beat up software company?
For the "asked chatGPT" crowd here are the sources sec edgar source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) 1. $4.5B Inventory Hit: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges` * quote: *"In April 2025, the USG informed us that it requires a license for export to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries... As a result of these requirements, we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished."* 1. 25% H200 Tariff: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges`. * quote: *"In February 2026, the USG granted a license that would allow us to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers. To date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program... The license requires that the H200s go through an inspection process in the United States prior to any shipment to the customer. As a result, any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States."* 1. nancy pelosi's nvda sale filing date: 2025-12-24. amount: $1,000,001 - $5,000,000. source: [https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public\_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf) So go check the sec edgar link yourself before you call 'AI' on everything that has more than two sentences of data
For the "asked chatGPT" crowd here are the sources sec edgar source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) 1. $4.5B Inventory Hit: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges` * quote: *"In April 2025, the USG informed us that it requires a license for export to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries... As a result of these requirements, we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished."* 1. 25% H200 Tariff: * source: `Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations` \> `Recent Developments, Future Objectives and Challenges`. * quote: *"In February 2026, the USG granted a license that would allow us to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers. To date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program... The license requires that the H200s go through an inspection process in the United States prior to any shipment to the customer. As a result, any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States."* 1. nancy pelosi's nvda sale filing date: 2025-12-24. amount: $1,000,001 - $5,000,000. source: [https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public\_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033725.pdf) So go check the sec edgar link yourself before you call 'AI' on everything that has more than two sentences of data
I work in this industry. The USG is expecting 1000 commercial launches per year by 2030ish. People have no idea how much shit we are about to put in space.
To re-state what I have said many times, the USG undertook a massive Quantitative Easing strategy during COVID. Unless you know something I don't about their ability to print oil, there is absolutely zero chance that a disruption to 10% (after reroutings) of one of the most important commodities to human civilization will not have a daisy chain impact. In other words, we can't print our way out of this, and 2022 Russia/Ukraine or 1970s Arab Oil Embargo is a much more appropriate analogy than COVID.
If I were the USG I simply wouldn't put an alcoholic psychopath failed national guard major in charge of the largest bureaucracy in the history of the world.
Imagine when the USG decides to stop printing money and it’s fully digital an all they need to do is click a button. Instant trillion dollar increase in money supply.
Here is an idea, i know this will piss you off because you sound like you are jewish. If Israel wants u.s. military protection, than U.S. should just annex Israel and they can become another state paying taxes like the rest of us directly to the USG. The U.S. tax payer now gets an ROI, Israel gets their protection and win win for everyone.
There is a company called Interlune that is working with USG to create the tech to harvest it. Interlune.. Can't invest it unless you are a U.S. accredited investor.
So much wildly contradictory information coming out of every USG orifice.
SpaceX has done incredible things, but a $1.75T valuation is really high. I'm very bullish on space in general and have quite a chunk in RKLB, and a much smaller chunk in ASTS. I see RKLB as the #2 to SpaceX, and I suspect the USG and others are chomping to diversify their launch. RKLB is the answer, even more so when they get Neutron. And RKLB is much bigger than just launch. Also, I'm not convinced Elon's idea of orbital data centers is gonna fly.
Buying yuge calls tomorrow on this LOL. USG prolly gonna take a stake in this as well soon....
You are flopping all around here. You said the USG's objective is regime change. That will take a long time. Yes? In the meantime, oil is not flowing out of Hormuz. Yes?
The goal is to eliminate the islamic republic who refuses to sell oil to the u.s. for u.s. dollars, and replace with a U.S. puppet who will play ball. The timeline on that is dependant. Iraq took years, Libya took months, Venezuela took days. It really depends. In the end, USG will secure the oil because we don't have any other choice at the moment. Solar power won't cut it just yet.
Lmao, this administration is apparently using the US treasury to intervene in the oils futures markets. Head of CME warned Trump administration that they risk "biblical disaster" if they intervene. https://www.ft.com/content/823657f2-4f8b-4325-88db-fbbdba6c9e17 WTF, the USG holding naked shorts on oil? I guess when this blows up it will be the most epic loss post on WSB. At least the USG can print $2 trillion to cover the loss.
Yes, the market and especially traders always get it right. It might end well, but right now it seems like the USG was overwhelmed that Iran is retaliation in the way they do. The rest will be seen
Independent of the USG's subsequent actions, are you saying vengeful Iranian-backed terrorist attacks are not any more likely now?
Platinum is too rare and looks too similar to be a monetary metal. It's why it's trading sideways. India and China are hoarding as much gold and silver as they can due to the PMs history and utility as being rare and scare enough to distribute as currency while being representative of tangible value. And throughout antiquity, silver has followed the ratio of the supply of both PMs because demand was constant. Both metals will be persistently in high demand due to the need of a tangible hard asset to hedge against fiat and USG volatility, and thus will meet physical ratios, as it did throughout the history of man
The CLARITY Act will kill the basis behind crypto as a decentralized, anonymous currency. Basically, it'll be used to make a pseudo-digital dollar... But as the real price of crypto heads to $0 (90% of all crypto projects have completely collapsed) the infrastructure will remain intact for USG to essentially build their own digital dollar separate from the speculation that currently drives crypto prices skyhigh. Coinbase, FTX, Binance were all vehicles used by the banks to profit off of retail by arbitraging crypto throughout the various exchanges. The arbitrage has disappeared, so there's even less reason to keep institutional money around- not to mention the private credit blowup that forces liquidation events, and the first thing to cash in are high risk assets like crypto. Neither of these exchanges were anonymous. Crypto as a project has fundamentally and spectacularly failed to be a hedge against fiat, and is now facilitating its transformation to be even more pervasive in our society
Has the USG ever designated a US company as a supply chain risk?
I think it's the fact that the USG can strong arm a private company over what essentially is a failed negotiation to buy services is what's so novel here. If this is true, and that's a big if, has there ever been a situation where the USG goes after a private company like this?
They’re also going to sue the government. USG essentially just blackmailed them and then retaliated on them. And publicly disclosed it. Idiots…
I dont care what they own. Taking away their money means 2 things. 1.) If the USG can take theirs cause "iTs NoT fAiR iTs UnEhIcAl " then they can take mine. 2.) Taking away their money wont mean USG is giving it to me lol. So it just means you want everyone to be at your financial level
I've seen it first hand myself. I know someone who repeatedly bought cars in New York and drove them to Virginia to sell to them to CVNA for thousands more than they just paid in a prearranged sale. Further, it looks to me like they spend at least $5 million each to build their ridiculous car vending machine buildings. Amortize that cost over 20 years with interest and divide it by the number of cars per year each location is selling and it's a meaningful cost versus the dealer selling on a dirt lot. I can't imagine it's cheap to insure or repair these facilities either. It doesn't add any value to me personally but I'm sure lots of people are impressed by it and somehow equate that fancy operation to better cars being sold. The one near me will be empty one day and full the next. I have no idea what they are doing with the cars but I don't think they are selling them and just moving them around looks expensive. I feel like what you are calling out about Carvana is true to some extent in many of the tech companies. TSLA is the worst offender. I'll spare you the full breakdown but it doesn't take an analyst to figure out there's no way to justify its valuation based on reported results or anything actually in the pipeline for future revenue. The hyperscalers, AI ,and chip makers are all investing in each other, with very little real external revenue, and few prospects for any materializing. Maybe they are counting on a great reset where crypto or CBDCs and the compute power to maintain them replaces the entire financial system as we know it. Companies fire most of their white collar employees relying on compute to replace them all, at which increase their dependence on the data centers, giving them greater pricing power. The third possibility I see is that they are positioning themselves for a future of AGI with exponentially greater compute requirements. However, most people who know anything about the matter will tell you that is still years away. If Moore's law is even close to being predictive, the hardware in these centers will likely be obsolete before that time comes and certainly before their loans are paid off. The final possibility is that the tech industry as a whole can spend with wreckless abandon because it knows the USG will bail out the whole industry, just like it did with the banks and auto makers. Too big to fail and all of that BS. The problem is that I don't think any of these scenarios justifies the cost and scale of the data center build out being made. It all looks speculative to me. So CVNA looks to me like just another one of the modern grifts, a game of musical chairs just waiting for the music to stop for the last time. Someone will eventually be a bag holder and my money is that it won't be the Garcia's.
"Clarity Act will lift bitcoin price, Says Treasury Secretary Bessent" Oh I'm sorry I am trying to remember what obligation the US Treasury has for anything that isn't financing USG and maintaining USD. How did we end up surrounded by these clowns.
No idea but being able to sell 100 years of debt at 1% from 10 year just means that investors consider Google more credit worthy than the USG which can literally print dollars.
There is no way for the USG to pay off the debt other than to inflate the debt away
I'm aware, but the stock is too heavily priced in them succeeding with recent and expected future launches & competition. Given SpaceX shenanigans, especially with Elon's forced merger with them and XAI the space sector is not looking like a stable sector. Precious metal prices aside, it's 90% dependent on USG subsidies to survive. Sure, you do have commercial customers like Apple, but if MangoMan decides to have a spat with Elon, there goes the industry's revenue. XAI is a massive money sink with the exponential cost of datacenters too... ASTS, RocketLab, and SpaceX are all tied at the hip.
It’s not his the military. I know someone in charge of cybersecurity for an entirely different USG organization. When I mentioned PLTR he rolled his eyes and was basically told by his boss to “find a use for Palantir.” Theres so shame in the grift anymore. Not that here ever really was.
Yeah absolutely possible, my counterpoint to this is if you look at the entire existance of almost any government, most certainly the USG. Once money is in a budget you need an act of god to remove it.
They will probably get back stopped by the USG at some point due to ellisons trump ties. I fully expect this to happen on some level... sadly... But yeah I wouldn't touch the stock personally.
I imagine it would require selling cars to be a car company. With the massive downturn in Tesla sales (to customers, not just X, Space X, or the USG), this was inevitable.
Add some margin calls in that mix due to uncertainty over next fed chair and USG shutdown.
Singapore buys USG 150bn worth F-35s from Murica
Understood. So the premise of my question was wrong since the USG will never default on its debts for lack of funds since it can create currency out of thin air. The question should have been, "How does one assess the risk of the US debasing it's currency to the point where it causes destabilizing, possibly catastrophic inflation?"
Wouldn't currency devaluation be the logical reaction to a USG default. And agreed about devaluation but how does one go about determining the risk of that happening? Is there a methodology for evaluating risk?
The interest rate has little to do with "who controls it" the language of the bill says that stablecoins CANT offer interest because incumbent banks don't want the competition. Now remember that a huge portion of COINs revenue IS INTEREST DERIVED FROM STABLECOINS, mainly Circle. The current framework of the Genius Act literally bans that revenue stream, and COIN "trading" business for trading fee extraction has never properly recovered from 2020. They have done a decent job of pivoting their revenue streams into other vehichles, a huge one being stablecoin interest and other interest bearing vehichles. So its not even who sets rates, etc; Baldy is freaking out because the bill as is very much fucks him over. The competing forces right now: On team USG: They love the idea of stablecoins forcing buying USTBills to help their debt addiction (ironically at the expense of losing control over the USD as an economic weapon, see Iran, NK, China, Russia, etc all bypassing swift and still using USD). On team Banks: They love the idea of creating more derivatized products on crypto layers and using stablecoin like products to bring down their operating costs; but they do not any competition for deposits (hence them pushiing the stablecoin ban). On team Crypto: They want normalization and legitimacy of the USG to back their sector and allow access to larger pools of liquidity and markets.
Brocoiners: we will find our freedom from USD and thr USG. Bruhcoiners: no daddy government dont shut down and hurt our liquidity
Worked out super well for INTC's long term performance. USG is just a pump and dump facilitator now.
WSJ article came out. Lip Bu Tan said they have no partnerships to announce. The only thing they have right now is an investment from NVDA and the USG (not bad, but nothing new).
USG can not let their 10% of $INTC sink. A weekend full of tweets ahead of us, trust me bro.
>Oh, maybe you think they will offload them on the secondary market and tank the rates for new bonds? Yeah, I do. They tried that strategy before in spring 2024, and it got Trump's attention. >Except 3/4+ of new bonds are purchased by USG entities, businesses, and people. And they can suspend the ability for those within the US to purchase on the secondary market which means they can keep their rates exactly the same. Which is basically a selective default and will drive rates on USTs up even further. The US needs to sell $2T of new debt a year, every year. The US needs to service $1T of interest on its existing debt every year. Any reduction in demand for US debt is *existentially* bad news.
Do you think they are just holding on to full mature bonds that are not accruing any more interest (hint: they are not)? Or do you think they will cash in their non-mature bonds and take the hit on interest? But that's just giving free money to the US. Oh, maybe you think they will offload them on the secondary market and tank the rates for new bonds? Except 3/4+ of new bonds are purchased by USG entities, businesses, and people. And they can suspend the ability for those within the US to purchase on the secondary market which means they can keep their rates exactly the same. Which again means the EU would be throwing money away taking a loss on their bonds to no actual detriment of the US. This is precisely why you have never (and likely will never) see this tactic used.
They have been establishing themselves as a trusted resource for Space. They have over a billion dollars in backlog contracts with the USG alone.
if the USG wants to backstop the lenders, sure. otherwise they will just not offer anything to the risky poors
In September 2008, Uncle Warren invested $5B in Goldman for preferred shares that paid a 10% annual dividend plus warrant to buy common stock at a later date…firmed up Goldmans capitalization and was highly profitable for Berkshire… October 2008, UW provided $3B cash infusion to GE on similar terms to Goldman…. Berkshire participate in a private placement of convertible notes for wallboard manufacturer, USG to help keep them afloat during the downturn… Berkshire stock had a significant drop in 2008 like many stocks, but the strategic investments it made in 2008 generated billions in profit during the market recovery…. Currently holding approximately $380B in cash…so while not a market hedge in a downturn, a stellar opportunity as a long term investment as the cash pile can be used to buy good companies in a downturn when they can be bought at a discount….just saying
INTC. It doesn't matter who develops the best model, what the use cases are, who designs the best chip. There are two companies in the world (arguably 3 but Samsung isn't going to meaningfully catch up in my opinion) that can fab bleeding edge chips. No matter what path this takes, the demand for wafers on the best processes is very unlikely to fall apart. Yes TSM is the best fab and it isn't close, and this is why they're at a 10x market cap compared to INTC. You then need to consider the geopolitical angle. Taiwan is going to be a part of China within the next 10 years, possibly within the next 5. This is painfully obvious. This is why the USG is scrambling to onshore semis. Yes, TSMC is building in Arizona, but it isn't building enough, and it refuses to build its top processes outside of Taiwan. Fundamentally, TSMC's agenda is opposed to the US agenda. This cannot be reconciled. Taiwan wants to retain US dependence on Taiwanese fabs so that Taiwan remains a strategic interest to the US. The US wants to onshore semis to derisk from Taiwan so that the US can allow China to take it. These goals will never be aligned. The USG knows this and that is why Intel is being propped up by the government and is essentially a state semi manufacturer. We will see this more clearly in 2026 and 2027. The market is not reading between the lines here and pricing the stock correctly. INTC should easily see $50 in 2026. 60-70 or higher is well within the realm of possibility especially if AI sentiment holds. I expect the stock to have a 500b+ market cap by 2028 barring a major market correction/AI pullback (which is absolutely possible)
Lmfao USG didn't save Intel they just expedited payments Fuck you wishing poverty on me
ok retard buy puts if you're so confident Betting against the USG and nvidia LMFAO
the USG will print trillions to build it all back, all of the raw materials are available outside China and aren't very rare
Elon has USG wrapped around his pinky.
USG: Intel? Never heard of it
Cyclic investments in AI are buffing the GDP print. Today's number was also before USG shutdown.
As someone who works in the space sector, the space stock run up is laughable. USG is basically THE customer. There are no realistic revenue opportunities outside of telecom, which is already pretty saturated.
Sure. I see the point. Let me add some context and plan for this trade so I can get some constructure criticism here. I don't intend to hold the put to expiry. There is little theta on this option for the next 16 months, so 50% risk premium I am paying is concentrated in the last 6 months of the put. The thesis here with the hedge is that the US is slowly jogging towards a sovereign debt crisis. Won't happen tomorrow but the long end of the yield curve is going to go up - it will probably be a "spikey" event sometime in the next 16 months that catalyzes an abrupt change in sentiment. (See yesterday for instance or if the next Fed chain continues a plan to cut rates with advancing inflation) The plan is that I'll keep this contract open for next 16 months Scenario A) TLT continues to slide or a negative news catalyst occurs , this put will swing deeper ITM on that event. The gain in the option will offset any losses in HIMU at that point. If that happens, the USG will be forced to implement measures to satisfy the bond market (Fiscal austerity, VAT implementation, etc), at that point TLT will begin to rebound. I'll close this put for a profit, HIMU will retrace (hopefully) to closer to my purchase price and I have protected my principal while still netting the tax free dividend from the muni. Scenario B) TLT does nothing over the next 16 months, HIMU stays close to the price I paid and I sell the put back for a loss on or around May 2027. The expected price of the contract on that date assuming no change in TLY from today is $600. So I paid about $200 in insurance costs on $20k worth of capital. (1%). Yeah that eats into my return, but I am still netting \~4%. Finally the small loss on this option offsets any gains I have elsewhere in my taxable income generating portion of my portfolio. So even this insurance offers value to me elsewhere. So open to feedback on this and if I am thinking about it the right way.
I have $20k in HIMU, a junk muni ETF. It yields about 5% and income is free from federal tax.so $1000 / yr free and clear of any USG taxes. The biggest single risk with that position is interest rate sensitivity. When yield climbs the value of the bonds will fall and ETF price will follow. because of the very real risk that the long end of the yield curve here in the US is going to explode in next 2 years I purchased ATM TLT put for $800 (LEAP) expiring in Jan 2028. TLT price is tightly correlated with HIMU. This I am paying about $400 a year in options premiums as insurance on my $20k principle. A couple things: I am surrendering half the yield in name of insurance. Yes. But I'm largely hedged and delta neutral as HIMU price changes.
Backed by the USG and military doesn’t mean bupkis. The fact is fiat is traded and speculated on like any other security, and analysts determine the valuation - also like every other security. People get scammed out of fiat constantly, it’s used in money laundering and every other “scheme” people blame crypto on. People who invest in shitcoins are like people who buy the fiat of weird countries. I can’t blame them for not knowing that there are only a half dozen crypto coins worth investing, and everything else is a worthless shitcoin grift. I mean, there are people out there who actually still believe that prices are determined by supply and demand.
Lol, I guess I thought you had more common sense than you did and were talking about the USG books. Do you think that the chips beindgsold to China were stolen straight from NVDA or something? They were sold to a third party and thus were already apart of earnings numbers. Lol. Common Sense
Correction to this.. pending USG approval, Netflix is buying WBD without Discovery. That approval is highly questionable at this point in time…
*Amid AI's sweeping expansion, Microsoft increasingly resembles a “state-owned enterprise among tech giants.” Yet shareholders have clearly granted the company greater autonomy this time.* I don't even understand what that means, and why you would use the word yet. As of ESG, the majority of the market and the USG have, for better or worse, decided that it's irrelevant.
> The head cheeto man in charge declared that intel isn’t allowed to fail and number go up. This was always the thesis: the notion that Intel was somehow a "going concern" was always stupid, the USG was not actually going to allow the only company conducting leading-edge process R&D and manufacturing, on US soil, to go belly up while there was a credible, near-term (~2027), geopolitical risk of China invading Taiwan and either controlling or destroying the *other* major chip fabricator in the world, *particularly* in light of the fact that semiconductors had increasingly become a national security issue as the AI narrative developed. I guess nothing absolutely guaranteed that equity owners of INTC wouldn't be wiped out if there was a restructuring or something, but Trump is making the move that pretty much any administration was going to have to make, sooner or later. TSMC isn't going to export leading-edge processes to its American fabs unless or until shit hits the fan and Taiwan ceases to exist, so the best move the US can make is to backstop Intel, and force American companies to work with them until this fab volume situation is derisked. Nobody was going to just let all these High NA EUV machines and tooling get mothballed or sold.
Their Chinese tesla not subject to tarrif.... Its the USG robotics policy because remember its a robotics company now. Guess is speculation tesla will have a new government teat to pull money from now that its off the EV teat.
Mods should probably un-shadow ban lRBT at this point. Likely not a meme stock anymore with valuation speculation due to USG investment in robotics.
The USG's 43-day shutdown didn't help. Notice how everything was ready and pushed through EDGAR once everything reopened.
Last time I checked my notes the USG still spends more money than it earns
nah, USG always tells the truth, and most always looks out for their citizens and for sure never hides any techology.. but yet literally yesterday a documentary came out about a 'secret cold war' between China, USA, and Russia... and who has been on the news lately all 3.... nope no conspiracy here... meanwhile everyon wants to build datacenters, but nobody is talking about what is going to be powering these 'said' datacenters?
RKLB. They will eventually compete for spacex heavy and musk is permanently out of favor so USG will be looking for an alt launch. Its NZ connection also lets anti U.S. gov’s contract with a non spacex company.
The USG has been hiding foreclosures, making payments for people so the houses don't hit the market. It is total bullshit and Trump stopped it. I think the free money stopped in September, so October was the first month with potential foreclosures hitting the market. We are talking 1M homes that were having mortgages paid by the government. It is outrageous.
The USG is literally non-functional and cannot pass a budget, in my democracy and many others this is considered serious enough to trigger an emergency dissolution and election.
Guys, this is the CON from the get go. Why do you think they were making these deals? So if the USG says no to this, OpenAI will turn around and crash the market. This is the CON with a implied threat.
That's fair but I think what some are pointing to is that the USG itself is near a point where printing money won't help because the bond market dictates the rates at which it will lend. Once the fed loses control (look at the overnight lending market right now for signs it may be) it doesn't matter what the USG wants to do. It will pay one way or another (either through astronomical interest rates bankrupting households and the USG through debt servicing payments, hyperinflation bankrupting the real economy, or both) crashing the entire system. This is not hyperbole it's happened several times in recent history. And every time smart people thought "this time is different".
\>huge and bloated corporation correct but there is an attempt to lean down \>massive CAPEX spending into depreciating assets - fabs - for which there are no customers this isn't necessarily the right way of thinking. the equivalency is criticizing TSM for building out 2 nm nodes which are depreciating- which is technically true but the revenue they generate massively outweighs that. INTC is trying to build out 1.8 and 1.6 nodes which is incredibly expensive and difficult. massive capex is a requirement for them for the hopes of massive revenue growth in the future \>all potential customers are also competitors, so at best will give Intel enough business to keep USG happy this is just...not true? NVDA and AMD are competitors on the design side but they are fabless whereas intc is fab + design meaning they would be customers...if they were able to execute high yields on chips kinda feels like you have a fundamental misunderstanding of semiconductors which is understandable as it's very very complex TLDR: INTC is very very questionable rn and needs to show execution in 2-3 yrs (nodes take a long time to come online, can't really do much before then other than show progress) to justify people investing them