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Elon Musk always has and always will be a puppet. He did not invent any of the technology of his companies. All that technology came from the German engineers and scientists that were taken from Germany to the US during WWII. Where that technology was even taken from ancient Egypt. And now that technology is being given to China (all done by design) as over the coming years we will begin to see the fall the the Untied States and rise of China. But back to the point Elon Musk is just the presenter of this technology for the nwo. Cheers and salute 🍾🍾🥂🥂
.....not really. Demand *most of the time* dictates supply. You get in really deep shit when demand expands independently of supply constricting - like if you're on a downward tregectory in the economic cycle, like the US was between the end of WWII and the 70s, and aggregate supply is pulling back for reasons unrelated to demand....like in the early 1970s when there was a shit load of geopolitical unrest in the middle east and the Arab oil embargo happened. Another example is when demand moves in the opposite direction (expansion), say, from COVID and quarantine restrictions being lifted, while supply moves in a different direction for other reasons - mostly due to a combination of geopolitical unrest involving a major commodity producer and domestic commodity producers restraining debt loads / capex spending during high price environments, mostly from the fall out and slew of bankruptcies that happened from 2014 - 2020. TL;DR - the economy doesn't move up-or-down because of a single variable happening in a vacuum. It's the result of billions of participants making buy/sell decisions every day - some of which may be related to broader economic events and some of which are not.
The Fed by keeping interest rates so low for so long has fostered and allowed huge levels of debt - governments, corporations, individuals. These debts represent promises that cannot be kept. Someone is going to get screwed over. The most likely outcome is what happened post WWII where huge debts were inflated away. The naive and gullible people who trusted the government to keep its promises had their faces ripped off (to use a phrase common in investment banking about their customers).
Inflation + recession + crazy meaningless lockdowns in China + biggest war in Europe since WWII that can cause starvation in Africa and the Middle East + insane prices for houses with highest interest rates for mortgages in a decade. Yeah, good times ahead.
Nicely said. Yes, abundance has run the table and we need some discipline. I grew up in New England and early on recognized how some stoic grit can get you places out here. But those days are waning. Not a bad thing, just an observation. Wow, stationed at Hunter’s Point in San Francisco? You probably know this, if for that brand new 1941 Naval Yard we might have lost the Pacific to the Japanese. Damaged ships were towed there after Pearl Harbor and quickly repaired to fight again at Midway. Some intelligent WWII scholars have said if not for Hunter’s Point shipworks we may have lost the war in the Pacific. Of course the postwar nuclear testing was horrible. , but it should not overpower its contributions to winning the war. I understand and appreciate your perspective. I am encouraged now though by what seems to be growing understanding and leadership here who understand our very real problems. Peace man, and genuinely thanks for your service.
[Only the reinstitution of the draft once World War III begins will get Americans to exercise again. If China invades Taiwan, American obesity rates will plummet after the resulting reimplementation of the draft, just like they did in WWII](https://youtu.be/3Ovfix8lByY?t=49)
I mean he's completely fucked. Worst stock market drop to start a presidency since FDR IIRC. Highest inflation in 40 years. Afghanistan disaster. Russia is a serious threat to world peace again. Homes at all time unaffordability. China as far removed from the West since WWII.
The interesting part of this graph is 1952. The ratio was nearly as high as the recent housing bubble. What happened then? I'll tell you. WWII was over and a lot of the servicemen took advantage of the new GI Bill to go to college, a privilege previously only available to the wealthy and connected, for the most part. They got out of college, spent a couple of years getting established in their professions, and wanted to buy a house. Everybody else also wanted to buy a house, but the market was not prepared for that and there was a shortage of houses. Supply down, demand up. Builders figured it out and started building low cost housing in large tracts all over America. Supply went up, costs came down. These were not fancy homes: Mostly two or three bedrooms with ghetto kitchens and bathrooms by today's standards. The 2008 bubble was much different. There were plenty of houses, but extremely loose lending practices and house flipping meant that virtually anyone could get a loan, whether they could afford it or not, and then a year later flip the house to another "investor" who also wasn't going to live in the house. Entire new subdivisions were sold, but empty of people. All flippers buying the houses. It was a pyramid scheme and all such schemes eventually crash. But, what happened after the crash is most interesting. Most of those "investors" lost everything, but there were Big Money people in the wings and they bought up foreclosures by the thousands. Well, hundreds of thousands, if not more. But Big Money did not sell--they rented out the houses to the now bankrupt "investors." And they are still renting those houses, which means that the natural selling and buying in the market has stalled as all of those rental houses are kept under lease. This has created a huge shortage of houses for sale to the new buyers. The houses being built now are for trade-up buyers, or new high-income buyers, not starter home buyers. This is a much different real estate economy than we had in 2008 and it will not crash like 2008.
> Whats the consensus on AMC? During World War II, the American Navy airdropped giant cargo crates of supplies for our troops to find on various islands. Some of those islands turned out to be inhabited by indigenous tribes with primitive technology. They found these cargo drops and believed they were sent from gods. For years after WWII ended, these primitive tribes would worship the sky in the hopes that the cargo planes would return and airdrop more supplies for them to use. These groups became known as "cargo cults" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult
You have some good points but to play devil's advocate, today is nothing like 2008. 1. We just (in fact still having) had a one in 100-year pandemic. We shut down globally. Supply chains went to zero. China etc are still in pandemic. Once the pandemic ends, I cant see supply chains not getting better and inflation in some sectors improving. It's almost like bears have forgotten that we just had a once-in-many-lifetimes disruption. 2. The pandemic, Ukraine war are external factors disrupting economies short term. Things will improve. In fact, historically, wars and geopolitical events in general are bullish. WWII cured the great depression. Of course, wars and pandemics are bad short-term, but their saliency makes them more manageable as the market can somewhat prepare. "The hardest punch is the one you don't see coming. " People can understand gas spiking cause of Russia easily, but there are many folks out there who still cant explain the GFC. 3. Inflation is global. This indicates monetary policy is not the only cause. The FED understands this, Powell has said so himself. I don't see why the FED would tank growth over something they have no control over.
Yup, just like you see bell curves everywhere in science and nature, there's just a huge chunk of people that respond emotionally and are repulsed physically to danger, loss, and panics. After WWII, it should be pretty common sense that following authoritarians, bigotry, and isolationism are not healthy for prosperity and democracy, but 60 years later, look where we are. Human nature is a mf'er.
Inflation is probably the worst thing that can happen to an economy. It fuels itself and is very hard to control once entrenched. If the Fed doesn't get this under control quickly, it will become harder to change later. Paul Volker, raised rates to almost 20% in 1981 to get it under control. Resulting in one of the worst recessions since WWII. Bonds are nothing more than a loan. I choose to take some of your debt for a certain yearly payment and the debt is returned at expiry. Treasury bills are essentially a loan to the government - a bond. It's the safest form of investment (since America won't default) - often used as the risk-free rate. If a risk-free investment, agreed for 10 years is at 3% it means that inflation will certainly not be under that amount for the average of that term. It also typically means that the Fed will need to raise rates above this percentage to cool inflation. All-in-all, it means that people have no faith that the Fed can get this under control anytime soon. This is what's spooking the markets. The longer this goes on, the harder it is to fix and the bigger the chance of recession. A few other things to note about stock movements. 1. Stocks that have a lot of debt will get really hurt by this. As they need to refinance those loans in the future and they'll need to pay more interest (costs more). It's one reason of the reasons you are seeing those at risk getting severally hit. 2. The Fed's removal of money from the economy will put a significant impact on companies that have relied on cheap and freely available money. These "zombie stocks" will likely go bankrupt. 3. The sky-high value of growth stocks is because they grow so fast. It's all about the future return on money. Any slight changes in growth significantly changes the valuation of the stock. It's for this reason why so many growth stocks are getting hit hard. I think that's about it, I hope my explanation helps. Paul Volker's memoir "keeping at it" is well worth a read if you want to understand what really happens inside and outside our economy.
.. what spoils? WWII.. lots of gold stolen, but certainly nowhere near enough to cover the cost of the war. Vietnam, what spoils? Iraq, what spoils? Destroyed oilfields? We also had the nifty side effect of creating ISIS, which lead to the 9-11 thing. Afghanistan, what spoils? How about Russia in Ukraine? Don't see any spoils there either, not going to be much of a country left when Russia is done.
That's Japan though. Not the U.S. I know that past trends do not guarantee the future, but every downturn we've had there have been naysayers claiming that this is the one we'll never recover from, and we always recover. The average bear market lasts 9.6 months. The average post WWII recession lasts 11.1 months. I don't see anything to indicate that this one is going to be the exception. Why do you think that this is the one that's going to irrevocably damage the U.S. economy and stock market? Historically, the best time to invest is right after they announce that we're in a recession. We had negative growth in the first quarter. The second quarter ends in June, so if that quarter is negative, they will officially announce it's a recession in July. If I am correct that the bear market started at the beginning of November, then if it's an average bear market it will end in August. I'm saving as much cash as I can until then. Of course I could be wrong because I'm just going by averages, but I am literally betting money that end of July to beginning of August time frame will be the best time to invest. If I'm wrong and it recovers before then, then at least my current investments are up. If I'm wrong and I pile in all my money before it hits bottom, boo-hoo I didn't time the market perfectly and it goes down a little further. Either way I'm not that worried.
What? How could Baby Boomers simultaneously be born too young for the Great Depression, but also responsible for WWII and Vietnam? They were born AFTER one, and teenagers for the other. One of the things that make old people disparage the young, is when they write stuff like this, demonstrating they have no idea what they’re talking about.
The last 6 out of 7 attempts by the Fed to reduce inflation have led to a recession: [https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation) The US entering a recession is not a new idea: [https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/26/economy/inflation-recession-economy-deutsche-bank/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/26/economy/inflation-recession-economy-deutsche-bank/index.html) (If you don't like this news outlet, there are similar articles concerning the US recession at every major news outlet.) In 1929, when America was in a recession, and later joined WWII in 1941, the economy saw a drastic boom. WWIII is not only possible but may be inevitable at this point, as America continues to fund Ukraine with additional armaments. Biden increased the military budget to $1.52 Trillion dollars: [https://www.nationalpriorities.org/blog/2021/04/09/biden-2022-budget-raises-military-spending-past-750-billion/](https://www.nationalpriorities.org/blog/2021/04/09/biden-2022-budget-raises-military-spending-past-750-billion/) Student loan forgiveness continues to seem less likely. None of the likely trajectories possible for the US seem very good.
""It takes the bureau at least six months to determine if a recession has started; occasionally, it takes longer. The average post-WWII recession lasts 11.1 months. Often, by the time the bureau has figured out the start of the recession, it's close to the end.""
I'm Taiwanese American, let me outline why its grossly overblown. 1. People fear of an invasion of China to TW bc of Ukraine (flexing might) or Hong Kong. First of all, there is no reason for China to go to war with TW before imposing any type of economic sanction. Why risk a costly invasion of TW (who has no natural resources, very mountainous and hard to conquer) when a simple economic sanction (China is TWs largest partner/trader) would be more effective? Also, TW is recognized as an independent country by the West (HK was not). TW was not "lent" to the British, like HK was so technically China has claim to HK. 2. Most of the Air/Naval projections by China is just to "show face". Every Taiwanese person knows this, and we are accustomed to it. Just like the India/Pakastani boarder, its just for show. 3. There is a clause where if Taiwan is attacked, the USA must go to war to defend it. While this is true, some Americans doubt that if TW was attacked, USA would actually defend it. It might be like the "treaties" the EU has when Germany invaded neighbors like Poland and the UK/England just ignored them in WWII. 4. While #3 might happen, what is the USA planning to do if 80% of its semiconductors are suddenly gone? Do you really believe Intel is going to take over? They are 5-7 years behind, whether you believe in their CEO. Fabricating chips aren't easy as we can see SMIC struggly as they try to poach TSMc engineers. The USA doesn't have much Fabs at the moment. Thats not to mention that TSMc just spent a shit ton of money building a Fab in Arizona. To reiterate, talk to some Taiwanese or Taiwanese Americans. See if they are really scared about an actual war with China...
Technically universities give far more service per dollar spent than ever before. It’s just that the state has stopped subsidizing the cost as it once did. With the GI Bills after WWII, we realized the best way to rebuild America into a powerhouse was to transform its businesses and economy. The federal govt and the states stepped in and subsidized almost everything and even those that didn’t get the GI Bills we’re getting an incredible deal — and the local economies thrived as a result. Pretty much all students are asking for is the same benefits the boomers were given and now complaining the kids want it all for free. But please…keep framing it as if you were wronged by the institutions where folks work for a quarter of what they could in private industry trying to make the world a better place.
So the biggest NATO force in history is building up in Poland. Military planners learned a hell of allot about modern day Russian military tactics in the Ukraine, surprisingly nothing has changed since WWII. Just because he calls up 21 million conscripts, does not mean he can throw them in to battle tomorrow. Russian military production is in no way geared up for a war in Europe. The use of tactical nukes will bring the wrath of the free world. No difference in wording regarding the use if tactical nukes or thermal nuclear used. High probability Putin is going to lose his life over this whole "Special Operation"
Dude, this is not true at all. Equities are *The* riskiest asset class. The phrase that Every financial advisor uses when discussing a chart, “past performance is not a guarantee of future results” is true. The majority of market indexes that have ever existed have eventually failed and closed. The US has been a recent aberration, but as with Rome, there’s No guarantee that the US and it’s stock market will be perenially dominant. Especially with current macro conditions and the unprecedented-since-WWII geopolitical situation, you’d be a fool to think there’s no risk in a market index, even “holding long enough.”
Worst start of the year for the market since the beginning of WWII. It’s going to get worse before it gets better in all honesty. If you wanted to close your positions and re enter when you feel the market is beginning to be oversold rather than a massive bubble that wouldn’t be a bad idea
Just finished a Czech WWII period film about an actress relationship with Goebbels. It's pretty... uh... goodly mediocre. The acting and costumes are great but it's like they typed a script about this actress' life and were like "*yeah that's good let's shoot*" - it's a biopic without addressing the thoughts of the actress and also lacking the theming qualities in other biopics, for example in the Aviator. "What makes him *him*"-scene themes. None of that. But as an interesting period piece it was pretty good. *Lida Baarova* it was called. As great costuming as it has is extremely rare. An interesting watch mainly because of it. But it was definitely written, as Trey Parker would say "and then [*this happened*]". Und ze jam thread will be pozted qvayt zoon.
Here’s by major concern we can go waaaay lower still. The last time the US passed a Lend-Lease program for machines of war was to Britain in October of 1941. In December came Pearl Harbor and the official start of WWII for us as retaliation. History repeats itself, so just be wary and maybe keep back a bit in case, God forbid, the worse happens.
Military industrial complex. If you weren't such a fucking moron you'd understand what I'm telling you. I don't agree with our countries leadership when it comes to our military matters since WWII. I draw the line with the whole world domination thing. You should save this thread to remind yourself what a fucking clown you are.
i hate young people today, 80% of them are brainwashed by climate change activists. you realize 80% of why the world was able to feed itself was because agriculture productivity rose by about 6x post WWII due to the use of fertilizers/pesticides which are all petrochemicals. 90% of your prosperity today is on the back of oil and gas, not tech.
Funny how these types always focus on WWII and never the other, many wars we've been involved in that started with jingoism and appeasement accusations and resulted in endless quagmires where everyone was worse off. I wonder why that is.
this is the part of the movie where the action cools off and everyone looks around trying to piece together what happened but in about 30 seconds we’re gonna hear the ominous sound of a WWII panzer tank rolling down the street
That’s exactly the point…. They would use a small nuke like we used in WWII, thus making it hard for the world to retaliate because it wasn’t that big. But still getting the point across that they have nukes and aren’t afraid to use them
It's a pretty well known fact that the atrocities Japan committed during WWII have been either erased or extremely obscured from the history books they use in their education system. No country is without it's skeletons, and in almost all instances, those countries will gloss over them. Leaving them a footnote somewhere. You'll see mention of the trail of tears, US japanese concentration camps and maybe even the Tulsa Race Massacre, but you won't get an in depth history lesson on them if you grew up in the States.
I think that the entire market is going to be volatile as these rate hikes come in, and Disney will have the voting machine go against them. However, their balance sheet is strong enough that they will weather the storm. They are diversified enough that it's unthinkable that they will go under. They will have the weighing machine in their favor, because they've essentially bought all of the big family friendly IP - they literally own Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, and of course Disney. They have huge expertise in monetizing IP, they've been doing this for decades. People who think the recent politics are even remotely relevant to Disney don't understand the company. Disney is so old and established they literally used to put out flat out racist cartoons. They made literal propaganda during WWII. You think Disney doesn't know what to do when put up against politics? This company has survived this long because they know how to influence not only politics but American culture as a whole. tl;dr: I think it's going to deflate short-term but it's going to grow long-term
I say this fairly often: I'm pretty sure the darkest timeline is where WWI and WWII got pushed back a couple decades or so. The science behind nuclear weapons was well on its way, consider what things would have been like if multiple countries had nukes during the whole of the world wars. Imagine Hitler *with Nukes*. We already came close enough during the Cold War, and that was with most people being familiar with the horrors that were going to be unleashed. Without the cautionary examples that are Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I think we would have blown ourselves to shit. A nuclear ravaged world isn't even the only part, it likely would have set back every social advancement, caused civil wars, and perhaps create a culture of anti-intellectualism and anti/science with a religious fervor.
Just won WWI and suffer WWII until your fat american ass decided to join them as soon as URSS won against III reich. Don't talk about the Bush family, Prescott Bush the bankster of hitler, etc. Americans soldiers rape more women than nazi never did in France. Americans tried to implement a new money in France, print in the USA, but De Gaulle fuck your plan. Today France is the bitch of the USA. You are just robbing this country and the industry with our previous and actual traitors Presidents. De Gaulle fuck you so deep as he sent the french Marines to keep back our gold, as the FED and US government used to fake the $ money. As soon as France will recovery from this traitors, USA will understand it. Bye bye Union European and OTAN. Bye bye extraterritoriality of the dollars. What a joke. Insteed of all above, the first "coca cola" was a french invention you rob. As you rob the "hamburger" from hamburg in Germany... i could continue the list so far. I still love american ordinary people but your state is egal to nazi. Just Trump saved your honnor as a nation.
sounds a lot like the end of WWI and the makings of the foundation for WWII. Force a crippled economy to pay for something it can’t afford therefor ensuring their economy remains desolate and crushed priming an entire populace to be receptive to a powerful orator that shares their angers of an anemic economy with fascist undertones? Yeah sounds about right. let’s do it.
We’ve never been in a situation where the entire world’s central banks cut rates to 0%, the Fed’s putting QE into overdrive, US debt to GDP at historical highs not seen since WWII, incompetent US Congress and federal government on the whole, massive shift in Fed monetary policy from dovish to hawkish due to high CPI, late stage capitalism which means stagnating future growth potentials, global supply chain issues, and so on… the world has never been in this situation and the writing is on the wall. The 2020/21 bull run was essentially a one in a lifetime run because of the free cash giveaway. You’ll likely never see that again in your lifetime. The party is over. We’re now facing the hangover, and it’s going to a bad one. The Fed is in a terrible place as they need to get inflation under control by artificially causing demand destruction. The problem is weren’t not facing inflation just because of high demand. We also facing it because of the global supply chain issues. But the Fed’s can’t raise rates too much because of the US debt. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038
Russia is committing war crimes and atrocities, but WWII literally included dozens of countries in direct conflict with the entirety of Europe at war. War in Europe is bad but Christ it’s not WWIII. You’ll know it’s WWIII when the world goes into nuclear winter Healthcare issues are ass rn, and the average person is dirt poor compared to the 1 percent, but how in the fuck is the great depressions 78% poverty rate worse than 11.4% today
Orange juice futures skyrocketed above 170 USd/Lbs in April, a level not seen since June 2018, amid record levels of low rainfall in top producers Spain and Portugal and a deficient US citrus production. Large areas, particularly in the south of Spain, faced extreme water shortages, underscoring continuing risks of drought stress to crops. On top of that, the US Department of Agriculture said that the 2021-2022 citrus crop was expected to be the smallest since WWII, ending at 6 million tons, or 13% lower than the previous season. OJ futes down 10% stock your fridge
I recall an Interview with an economist who was asked in the event of economic collapse how could society climb out like WWII… The answer? And very serious: Alien invasion, fake or not. Space force Pentagon keeps releasing UFO videos 🤔 Think outside the box
The picture on the bottom is a copy of a report that British engineers were working on during WWII to determine how they need to make their planes better. They looked at the damage that planes had when returning from an airtight. Intuitively, you would think that that you should reinforce the wings, fuselage and tail-wings, but in reality, the analysis was done on the planes that *returned* meanings that the planes that got shot in places that didn’t show up in their analysis *didn’t return*. Therefore, in reality the places *without red* are the most important parts of the plane to reinforce because a plane can obviously sustain damage to the wings, fuselage, and tail-wings if they are returning from battle in the first place. It’s one of the key graphics associated with survivorship bias. Therefore, *wealthy* boomers giving advise to invest in value stocks is survivorship bias *because* they are wealthy. Just because they made money from investing in value stocks doesn’t mean that there weren’t thousands of people who went bankrupt investing in value stocks that aren’t telling their story.
That’s the exact story behind this graphic! A first analysis of WWII plane bullet holes told the. To reinforce the areas shot most. Didn’t work. Then a statistician named Abraham Wald realized the survivorship bias. He had them reinforce the non-shot areas, because that’s what allowed the planes to make it back. Tons of articles on it. Like this one https://www.trevorbragdon.com/when-data-gives-the-wrong-solution/
>Inflation is the worst it's been since WWII There are some stocks that made crazy gains during inflation periods. You just have to be judicious in finding the right ones. I have been riding Oil companies and PDBC. It's been nice. \*(Besides my -12% on my ETFs means I am not even close to even. but at least the Oils and PDBC have kept me afloat.)
There's a lot of bad fundamentals. Inflation is the worst it's been since WWII if you use the same inflation model as they did in the 70s and earlier. There's a lot of shortages, materials as well as workers. Wages just aren't keeping up with inflation and the U.S dollar status as the petrol dollar is being challenged. Regardless the U.S will recover even if we enter a long recession. We may be experiencing my generations first true hardship similar to the great depression. Regardless the U.S recovered from the depression and we will almost certainly recover from this in time.
Join Date: May 23, 1999 Location: Eastern North Carolina Posts: 104 It was during the dark days of WWII that a regular GI came bounding across a battlefield. Taking cover in one foxhole after another, with all the horrors of war trying to stop him, he was duty bound to get the message back to HQ. As he dived headfirst into a hole he saw that it was occupied. Moreover, the man who occupied it was wrapped up in an Indian blanket and was staring at him. As soon as he was able to compose himself he noticed that not only was the blanket of American Indian origin but so was the man wearing it. The GI thought this odd but a friendly face was better than being out there in the carnage just above their heads. So the GI said to the Indian, "Good God it's crazy out there, you sure got the right idea holding up in here." But the Indian didn't say anything in return--he just kept staring at the GI. So the GI looked back at the Indian and said very slowly and deliberately "Do you speak English?" There was no response from the Indian save for his staring back at the GI. It was at this point that something the GI heard back at HQ came to him. So he said to the Indian, once again very slowly, "Are you part of that contingent of American Indians that's operating in this district?" Once again not a word from the Indian. "Well this is a fine how-ja-do" cursed the GI. "Stuck in this God damn war in this God damn foxhole with this God damn Indian who don't even know how to talk English!" About this point the GI had an idea he thought might help. Perhaps he could speak to the Indian with the use of sign language. So the GI cupped his hand, making like a parachute and slowly bringing it downward, saying "Paratroops Airborne, par a troops--are you part of an Air borne group?" But still nothing from the Indian, not so much as twitch. But this GI was determined by now to communicate with this other man, so he tried again. Taking two fingers he walked them up then down his opposite forearm saying "Infantry, are you in the in fan try?" But still nothing, not a sign from the Indian. Hardly deterred, the GI positioned both hands and arms and moved them as though shoving a shell into the breach of a cannon, saying "Artillery, are you with an ar till ery batt ery?" But still the Indian just sat there as if glued to the spot. A moment or two passed then the GI thought he finally had it. He formed his hands and put them up to his eyes as if they were binoculars shouting "Signal Corps!" At this the Indian looked absolutely horrified, jumped up, threw off his blanket and ran from the foxhole. It was about twenty yards away that the Indian was able to dive into another foxhole. There in this second foxhole sat a second Indian, and in their native language this was what was said: "What's the matter with you why didn't you stay where you were? You could have been killed coming over here!" "Oh," said the first Indian, "I had to get out of the foxhole I was in because a crazy man jumped in there with me!" "A crazy man," said the second Indian. "Yes," said the first, "as crazy as ever was." "How could you tell he was crazy?" asked the second. So the first Indian showed the second Indian in sign language what it was that the GI had said to him: After he jumped into the foxhole with me, he signed, he told me that "when the sun goes down" and "we go back to camp" "I'm going to **** you in the ass" until "your eyes bug out!" Both agreed that the GI must have been crazy to make such an offer in the middle of a battle!
I don’t disagree, but I think there’s some info left out. What you are saying is true on a very macro level, but there are variables that effect a particular person’s economic affect. Externalizing costs means there are winners and losers. War funded by cheap debt adds to this generations GDP. All consumption primes the pumps of capitalism. Arguments about war being inefficient use of capital ignores the fact that capital is already being used inefficiently- fancy financial instruments that provide no societal value, on the sidelines, not invested in things that will pay future dividends (infrastructure, especially green), and on things that go from factory/ field to landfill (waste and also destruction of goods to maintain scarcity, mine baubles, etc.) I do hear what your saying, but I think the idea that war is good for our economy is there for a reason. The math would look a lot different if we were the ones being bombed, of course. I don’t think many in Europe would consider WWII to have been an economic boost. Maybe Switzerland. Kind of a side note, but have you read much about “disaster capitalism?” Thank you for your thoughtful post.
It's the anniversary of their victory in WWII, a really big holiday. I think he would like to declare a victory and extract himself from this mess, but given how riled up the public is, I don't think he can accomplish anything by May 9 that his people will accept
Yes, but you don’t mention the reason why it ended the Great Depression. In short, it was an exponential increase in demand the war created that could only be met by massive government deficit spending, the highest in U.S. and UK history as a percentage of GDP. There was a trade-off, however, which was shortages of consumer goods. No tires, no gasoline, no civilian aircraft, boats, or motor vehicles, food shortages (food was rationed in Great Britain) and insurance companies went bankrupt all over Europe because they could not pay claims. One can spend a lifetime studying the uniqueness of global economics during WWII.
A melt-up is just ahead. Likely to be the biggest,steepest rally in the post WWII era & will be a broad rally with both growth & value,large & small caps participating.Commodities,industrials,tech including FAANG,semis & ARKK,autos,airlines,steel,financials & miners will all play.
You're confusing wealth concentration with economic expansion. Economic gains are made in two ways: increase in population and increase in productivity. War reduces population and reduces productivity. While a nation that remains undestroyed might temporarily be able to take advantage of others wrecked by war, overall economic output is reduced and the unaffected nation also becomes dragged down over time compared to if war never took place. Let me dumb this down: \----- There are three ants in a colony. Two of the ants farm for food. The third ant works to repair their nests. They pay each other money for their food and services. Each year, the three ants eat half the food they produce. The other half of food is sold to birds for money. The three ants have food, shelter, and money. They are happy. One day, one of the two farming ants gets invaded by Russians and his field is flooded. That ant has to spend the next year building a dam to get rid of the water. The ants produce half the food that year. They still survive, but have no leftover food to sell to birds. The colony as a whole is poorer. The ant who is working to build the dam grows no food and has no income for that year. He must also spend out of his savings to buy food for himself, and to pay the birds for dam construction materials. By the end of that year, the flooded ant is broke. During this time, he falls behind on making repairs to his nest. The repair ant also loses half his income for the year. While all of this is happening, the other farmer ant (America after WWII) is thrilled. He now has a monopoly on food and jacks up his prices 20% to enrich himself and fuck the other two ants during their dire times. The other two ants are forced to reduce their food spending. They become thin, but survive. The following year, the flooded ant is farming again. However, he owes money to the birds and must pay 1/3rd of his annual income over the next three years to the birds instead of spend it on repairs. The repair ant doesn't owe the birds money, but his income is reduced due the indebted ant spending less on repairs. The American ant, after making a killing the previous year, does poorly because a) his farming competitor is supplying food again; b) the other two ants are poorer and are now spending less on food; c) the reduced food demand has caused an overall drop in food prices. After five years, the three ants hire an accountant. Audit reveals that the colony has recovered well, is richer than five years ago, and the non-invaded ant is the richest of the three. Nevertheless, the entire colony has a whole has in fact undergone a depressive cycle and is poorer than a neighbouring colony that was never invaded. The Rich farming ant is 10% poorer than reference; the poor farming ant is 30% poorer, and the repair ant is 15% poorer. \---- Now scale that up to any multiplier you want and realize the mathematics are are the same. On an alternative Earth where WWII never happened, America would have ended up even richer than it did.
It depends on the context and the culture. Sometimes there's a big fund like the Marshall Plan after WWII where the rebuilt infrastructure ends up much better than what existed before the war. Sometimes the destruction caused by a war results in a 100 year depression. Sometimes the result is something neutral where the negative of the war is exactly canceled out by the positive quality of the rebuild. Some cultures like in the USA regularly demolish and rebuild better. Controlled demolition and war have the same effects but within a different context. Note it's not correct to equate the destruction of advanced machinery (Amazon warehouses) with, for example the mass destruction of old buildings in midtown Nairobi. Nothing in business "should already be working." Things break constantly and value is created when things are repaired. Think of it like this: By magic, a machine spontaneously appears with a broken valve. It's useless without the valve. With the valve, the machine generates $100 of value an hour. There is less wealth in the world for every hour the machine is not repaired. Thus repairing the machine creates wealth.
Do people still decorate eggs? I remember my grandfather giving us an Easter egg hunt with actual hard boiled eggs. To a kid, that sounds lame, but that’s understandable given that food like eggs were a true luxury under the shittiness of Stalin and then WWII.
So I am confused. Are you saying that we shouldn’t have rebuilt Europe after WWII? The problem with this approach is that its a simple construct with really abstract and simple assumptions. If rebuilding results in exactly the same output, rebuilding is a maintenance effort. Reality is that aging infrastructure prevents growth. Plowing it to the ground and rebuilding is in fact a growth generation activity _because it creates new capabilities and gets rid of outdated stuff_. But hey, you invest in old infrastructure and bloated industries. I will invest in the rebuild.
Who are you even arguing against? Who made the claim that war is good for the economy? The USA isn't at war, BTW, nor is the rest of the West. And the only people I've ever seen make the claim that war benefits the economy is when the USA was a manufacturing powerhouse in WWII.
Depends, the US dollar would be viewed as more stable and the labor force’s wages in those countries would have declined. The big difference today however is the global economy is tied together much more. Most large cap companies now sell to a global market of consumers, the demand destruction in those markets would destroy profitability. The United States post-WWII also engaged in global resource extraction. US companies are on the top of many value-added supply chains. The loss of those supply chains would devastate them because we no longer extract resources heavily domestically but rather internationally (thus we don’t deal with mining pollution as much, poorer countries we take resources from do). Overall, the United States would be a net loser in your scenario. However, in a world war, it is unlikely any enemy would be able to pose a real danger to the US supply chain. Our massive military, especially the Navy, makes it almost impossible to seriously hurt the US current system. Even a war with China would be primarily limited to south east Asia, not impacting US global trade significantly.
"A melt-up is just ahead.Likely to be the biggest,steepest rally in the post WWII era & will be a broad rally with both growth & value,large & small caps participating.Commodities,industrials,tech including FAANG,semis & ARKK,autos,airlines,steel,financials & miners will all play." [David Hunter](https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1513892068669673484?t=SqolCKWGWC0RPiFjdPy0XQ&s=19)
A melt-up is just ahead.Likely to be the biggest,steepest rally in the post WWII era & will be a broad rally with both growth & value,large & small caps participating.Commodities,industrials,tech including FAANG,semis & ARKK,autos,airlines,steel,financials & miners will all play.
The US could have spent a lot less money by projecting soft power to help the peoples of the world and it would have done a lot more than lazily bombing other countries. Also, the military hasn’t won a big war since WWII and they suck when they have to fight an enemy who fights asymmetrically.
A melt-up is just ahead. Likely to be the biggest,steepest rally in the post WWII era & will be a broad rally with both growth & value,large & small caps participating.Commodities,industrials,tech including FAANG,semis & ARKK,autos,airlines,steel,financials & miners will all play.
We'd be back to the '80s when debt payments increased because of a combination of higher rates and an explosion in the deficit. The result was a series of tax increases. Though I don't think that is as likely now than in the past. Post-WWII the deficit as a % of GDP decreased has decreased over every four-year Democratic presidential term and increased for every Republican term starting with Nixon, excepting Reagan's second term. And there the deficit didn't decrease by as much as it increased in his first term.
The Soviet Union won WWII coupled w/ a mistake on Hitler moving too aggressively in the winter as well as him getting more ill. US played a small part. Only thing that saved us with Japan was 2 atomic bombs and we were the only ones in the world that had them. We try nukes again, we’re all super fucked.
>That's the general consensus between Goldman, Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, JP Morgan and Morningstar Investment Management... Those guys made a similar prediction last decade. There's a general consensus that we cannot expect the same returns as last century, that generally productivity cannot continue to keep pace with the unprecedented returns we've seen since WWII. By my recollection, those reports began to pour in at a steady pace around the same time they began predicting the next recession, around 2012 or so. Since then, productivity has been growing at breakneck speed and we haven't experienced anything that could remotely be described as a proper recession (sharp dips followed by explosive recoveries over six months notwithstanding). I've lost all faith in their reports.