WWII

Efficient_Pomelo_583

And you did know that in 19 out of 20 post WWII conflicts the market rebounded to previous levels 28 days into the war?

RagingAnus69

Because everything is tied into the military industrial complex. You know who makes airburst timers? Jet engines? Who has the service contracts for those engines paid out based on flight hours? GE. They invented the airburst timer using repurposed Christmas lights, which is why there were no Christmas lights to buy during WWII. You know who makes chaff? Meadowbrook. They've been the number one glitter producer since they invented it. Guess how chaff is produced? Using proprietary precision mico-machining that is, conveniently, also used to make glitter. US MRE producers are tied into every major food packaging company globally. Someone from Australia may have heard of Jensen's Organics, someone from the UK might know the name Orexis - both subsidiaries of Baxter, who makes US MREs. Patagonia? Specialized uniforms. Danner and Belleville? Standard issue GI boots. You may know Daikin as a mid-tier air conditioner company. They also make grenades. Saab? The AT-4 man-portable anti-tank weapon system. The list goes on and on and on. It costs them more to get their consumer goods to consumers, so their consumer pricing goes up and we expect those companies are probably suffering along with us. But for every extra dollar they spend making and selling consumer goods because of the fuel crisis, they make ten off the war. Revenue and profit continues increasing, so does value.

Sandvicheater

I wonder what WWII vets who had the steel cojones to storm the beaches of Normandy thinks about how pussy whipped and soft USA has become?

sleepystockmarket

That's a really interesting structural layer on top of the inflation dynamic. The GLP-1 effect is genuinely novel territory — we've never had a pharmacological intervention hit food demand at this scale before, so there's no historical playbook. The closest analogy might be the post-WWII shift in American eating habits when refrigeration and processed food became widespread — but that was additive to food spending, not subtractive. GLP-1 is the first time a technology is structurally reducing caloric intake across a meaningful population segment. For food companies the really uncomfortable question is which categories get hit hardest. Snack foods and high-calorie discretionary items (think Mondelez, Pepsi's Frito-Lay division) look more exposed than staple proteins and produce. It's worth watching whether we see category-level divergence in volume data over the next few quarters — branded snack erosion vs. protein/produce resilience.

JoseLunaArts

US military industrial complex wants war. US warmonger politicians want war. Netanyahu needs war to not be prosecuted. Trump needs to conquer Iran to win. Else he will need to comply with Iran demands to reopen Hormuz. So why all this talk about negotiations? Wall Street needs investors exuberance to sell securities. 2026 was supposed to be full of investor exuberance as midterms approached. But Trump started a 48 hour war (another Venezuela) that did not go as planned. So he is improvising. Rumors claim that his family is doing insider trading before every Trump announcement. This war ends in one of 2 scenarios: * US conquers Iran, a land the size of Alaska, almost double of Ukraine, way bigger than France and Germany combined. Remember how much time it took allies to reach Berlin passing through France in WWII. * Middle east completely void of any ressemblance of western military presence. No shades of grey, no nuances.

johnnyhokkaido

never forget that war is actually economically stimulating (see US in WWII)

daviddjg0033

Was $148 in Oman on a YouTube video from two weeks ago. Let me tell you a story from last decade and see where I am wrong: Futures are a decaying instrument - look at the April (settled) May, vs Mid July/August vs December and for argument sake the longest dated future. Markets went into backwardation because the marginal buyer of spot oil will pay $150 or higher - depending on supply/demand. Who buys crude in lots of Futures? Two decades ago I read 15% of the cost of oil was not storage - it was speculation. Storage is why I would pay more in those ling dated oil futures because I do not want my tanker to hold oil waiting on the glut of oil my storage carries in normal times and while the government declines to fill the strategic petroleum reserve. Airlines used to be able to buy Futures to hedge against Russia invading Ukraine and starting WWIII in 2014. Utilities could buy LNG contracts in case of a hurricane 🌀 LNG goes from $1 per cubic unit to $3 - or $10 in case tanks start rolling into Europe 2022. A company made more money trading futures than pro iding airline service or a utility believed trading was the solution before AI no growth meant bribing to expand utility areas of coverage or gambling on fossil fuel delivery contracts. Correct me corporate law folks - someone lobbied against an airline gambling on dice that would create a widowmaker trade blow up the Big Utility or Small Airline. One would be planning a trip only to see a whole regional hub disappear because Karen in accounting let Jacob buy more notional than this graph - a fat finger trade - while getting his kicks on with Aubrey in HR. Companies planning to expand outside plant would be stuck with ths bill to create off peak load energy. Someone might even propose the corporations sorry People should pay spot electric prices. Carl Icahn got paid to take delivery of oil when it was negative, paid to have it shipped to refineries and that oil became your OTC and Rx drug, lipstick, dental floss, every carbon compoundchemical you learn in organic chemistry like vinyl or esters anything that can think of - except for those that are easier to start with methane CH4. Not to mention liquid fuels are the only backbone of a superpower that regional powers or Europe needs. Hydrogen, an investable sector defined by $HYDR ETF is next cycle but would compete with free radicals to oxidize the tripled methane our atmosphere holds. Liquid fuels should never be burned for pleasure during good times let alone hot war in Europe longer than WWII times. Ignore my comments about tax breaks during the longest peacetime expansion since WWII because we did not wean ourselves from the fracking companies that did not turn a profit but saved Europe. Nationalization or the story about aluminum and why Reynold exists not just Alcoa is a great topic besides Methane and Carbon dioxide produced by polychain carbon molecules derived from crude like octane. Your Flintstones mobile car burns dinosaurs and plants from the Eonperiodiforgotalomgtimesgosinkedcarbon era. Costs to store commodities today means contango and those back month futures are normally higher than April or May 2026. Backwardation is spot $140 while I can pay $90 for December or $60 for 2027. Geopolitical premium can be higher than 15% because that speculation that adds a cost to the future in last decade was before fracking and the US shale production that saved Europe - not forever - but temporarily from collapsing when the tanks start marching in music emoji. Who wants to go halfs on a tanker for July 2027? I heard there will be a fireworks display. Yuge!

awakep

Performance in Recent Conflicts: Data indicates that even when U.S. stocks fell, the decline was usually temporary. In 20 major post-WWII conflicts, the S&P 500 declined just 6% on average, with 19 of those instances seeing a full recovery in an average of only 28 days. RBC Wealth Management RBC Wealth Management 1973 Yom Kippur War/Oil Embargo: Stock market experienced a sharp decline (16.1%). 1990 Gulf War: Initial invasion resulted in a 15.9% drop. 2001 Afghanistan Invasion: Short-term volatility followed by a quick recovery. 2026 Iran Conflict: Initial 9% drop, with investors experiencing a quick market recovery within weeks. RBC Wealth Management RBC Wealth Management +3 While war creates immense uncertainty and emotional volatility, history shows it is rarely the cause of a sustained bear market, which are typically driven by economic factors like recessions.

DrofwarcRetnuh

Most domineering? The Roman Empire was dominant and around much longer than America has been.  Most innovative? Our system of government is based on the Ancient Greeks and Rome as well as Enlightment ideas from France. Our systems of mathematics which allows us to even have a stock market wouldn't exist without India. Our system of industry was spurred by Industrial Revolution throughout Britain and other countries of Europe.  The main reason America was so dominant economically post WWII is because our factories weren't bombed and most other countries' were, thus setting them back and giving us a manufacturing advantage.  Not trying to downplay America's accomplishments, as it's impressive and abnormal how quick America rose to being a number one world power. But you are being way too dramatic talking about the full history of civilization. You sound like what Roman aristocrats would have said a couple hundred years before their empire collapsed. Although they wouldn't be calling people "bears" lol

Sryzon

Ford doesn't make cars, they just assemble them. That's how they were able to transition to defense during WWII and nothing has changed about that.

elitepigwrangler

WWII was 80 years ago, and the market conditions then compared to now are so vastly different it’s a completely useless comparison

Choice_Potato_6279

Yes bro, one event will fuck the market for decades when even WWII didn't do it, are you listening to yourself?

discovery999

Look up WWII. Average return of 7% a year. Ripped in the last few years. Only clowns try to time the market. 🤡

Rubricity

The problem is not their end, the problem is supply chain, you cannot rump out modern sophisticated interceptor like that you rump up shell production of WWII...back then they could do it because those weapons back then were more labour intensive then that of capital intensive

NotMe357

"JUST IN: Pentagon reportedly asks GM & Ford to begin producing weapons, reviving a WWII-era model." WW4 Baby!

notapersonaltrainer

Sure it does. The WWII bottom was in before the first US troops landed in Africa. Europe + Japan was 10x more central and overweight in the global economy than the Gulf states today and got way more wrecked. Also energy is so much more elastic today than in the 70's. Most of the world didn't have air conditioning. Flying was a high end luxury. There are more obese than hungry now. We have caloric SPRs in our waistlines and pay for stupidly expensive pills to eat less. Even the third world eats high-trophic foods, and hunger is mostly a distribution not production problem now. This is a wildly different situation than when a global baby boom was trying to keep pace with its baseline caloric requirements. Frankly, the developed world would be better off eating 10% less calories and touching grass for a few hours a day instead of running AC and lights. Imagine bearmaxxing after killing Hitler, Himmler, Goring, Himmler, and all their underlings, and destroying the entire Luftwaffe and all U-boats and most of their Einsatzgruppen proxies...in the first 30 days...because "decentralized Nazi cells are still harassing the Danish straits". The problem is Reddit is the tail end of the informational human centipede. Markets move first. Then X and wires. Then a mid-tier journalist mangles it. Then Reddit selects the worst take, amplifies it, and users trade off the top comment without reading the source, only to cry about manipulation when the move is over.

Retaining-Wall

Gold is the one store of value that seems to remain consistent no matter what happens. Except for those rare instances like post-WWII Germany where if you had a carton of cigarettes you could buy **anything.**

notapersonaltrainer

That just reinforces my point. Even the slow WWII era markets front ran like crazy. This means you have to front run even faster in today's. Bearmaxxing today would be the WWII equivalent of still selling stocks after killing Hitler, Himmler, Goring, Himmler, and all their underlings, and destroying the entire Luftwaffe and all U-boats and most of their Einsatzgruppen proxies...in 30 days...because "rogue Nazis are still blowing up tracks/pipes and the market is 'ignoring the damage done to supply lines'".

notapersonaltrainer

The WWII bottom was in before the first US troops landed in Africa. Europe + Japan was 10x more central and overweight in the global economy than the Gulf states today and got way more wrecked. The problem is Redditors try to time stale news and their sense of proportionality is based on spasmodic user submitted headlines literally ranked by mob voting. You cannot trade like this if you're trying to make money.

ChollyWheels

\> And no, that’s not irrational. Yes, it is. Stock market traders rely on patterns and take comfort from the idea marks -- seem -- always to come back, if you wait long enough. FIRST that's actually delusional -- it's mysticism, not thinking. For example after the 1929 crash the market took around 25 years to come back and (more importantly) many stock traded during the crash NEVER came back. SECOND the world, for all its sorrows, has existed in a post-WWII idea of world order. But, whatever happens, that world is GONE: \#1 Trumpets caused general damage -- to US prestige, reliability. \#2 One result of that is the dollar is in decline, with the result the US will be unable to continue its mad reliance on debt \#3 The biggest reason for the USA's power -- financially and in industry -- is a direct result of the USA being an oil power since around 1857 (not a typo). Traditional oil production peaked WHEN PREDICTED in the 1970s and since the production is way up due to the miracle of fracking. But now petroleum production is likely to decline -- and the depletion curve for fracking his HUGE. \#4 as a result of #1 and #2 and #3 the US is heading to a financial crisis -- unable to borrow, at risk of defaulting, needing to buy petroleum at a time when has no money to do that. So: five years from now? Whole different world. No one knows for sure what that will look like, except the US will be poorer and weaker than today. Want a suggestion? Learn Chinese.

altonbrownie

War is bullish. WWII pulled the US out of the Great Depression. How could WWIII be any different? Nearly the exact same name as WWII.

Torgud_

I'm familiar, but modern West likes to pretend that there is a line drawn under these post WWII and that things changed. If not for Israel, such statements could almost be believable.

Prize_Compote_207

I hate the guy but the idea here is that freedom of navigation should not be impinged. If Iran is *only* going to allow vessels it deems worthy (Asian-bound vessels, who have paid tolls) to transit the strait, then global freedom of navigation is in fact being impinged. And the blockade is a punishment on the country responsible for impinging that global freedom. (Though were all going to hurt as a downstream effect.) To be clear Trump/Bibi started all this bullshit in the first place. But also to be clear, the entire world has benefited from the US Navy securing freedom of the seas since the end of WWII. If Iran is going to fuck with that, the US (and its allies) should respond appropriately. Alternatively, we could go back to the old system of piracy, privateering, and mercantalism that existed for hundreds/thousands of years before Bretton Woods.

SonOfLuigi

I said yesterday the United States needed to choke Iran out by taking control of the strait and their oil. Welp, this is how you accomplish the first part. There will be stock market and economic pain in the short to medium term, but if this is actually done Iran’s source of funding will evaporate AND their allies (China) will put extreme pressure on them to cave. China will be absolutely wrecked without Iranian oil. The US has been putting the FDR pre-WWII pressure on them the way we did with Japan.

mx5plus2cones

Read between the lines what I meant when I said "lobbying group". I don't think I need to spell that out any more clearer. It's a heavily influential and powerful lobbying group. They have to. They have to stick together, they were persecuted pretty badly during WWII, they were shit on by every other country that borders them with attack after attack until they fought back...hard.... They have taken down US universities for it, some being Ivy League, including Harvard... Don't fuck with them.

elpresidentedeljunta

I suppose in China it would take a few weeks max to have plants running which can convert coal into oil as they did in WWII. Not fincancially viable while there is enough oil, but if you have to fill demand...

Alepman

Til atrocieties happened during WWII, done by Jihadists XD, life goes on

SonOfLuigi

The US absolutely has to gain control of Hormuz from a geopolitical and long-term strategic standpoint. You cannot leave Iran in control of it, you cannot concede the US role of guarantor of free trade. It would diminish the US more than any event post WWII otherwise. Get control of the strait and then Karg and choke Iran’s government until it falls.

Schmidtys

are we learning that the US just sucks at wars? we havent won anything since WWII and that was with help lol

Late-Combination5060

Has North Korea started WWII . What about Russia or Japan?  Anyones who have come close are America 

SuspiciousMap9630

I believe the end of this is supposed to read as “I hope and pray the people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land (in order to) get rid of European Jews burn in hell.” Meaning, the Europeans who pushed out Jews after WWII

Brawmethius

> You're clearly very young, and struggle to get your big words out. It's also clear your only knowledge of unemployment is the current rate. Pulled directly out of your ass just like your "research and analysis". Surprised you didnt feel like using the first graph in the Wikipedia reference you never read, its the same FRED chart. But I mean it was pretty obvious you just shitting out some blue links and word salad to make it seem like you aren't a total retard. Now we could talk about long term trends, how unemployment metrics only capture looking for work, dont capture decline in full time work, or what historically these rates mean in terms of job stagnation. We could look at U-6 rates accelerating, we could look at increase of people not seeking employment not in the metric, we could look at LISEP metrics which strip out a bunch if the BS. We could also talk about trending rates. For example saying historical average is 5.7% primarily for the post WWII period, we could then go but the last decade has trended 4.8% post GFC, with the covid recover at 4%. But none of that matters, because since you are so concerned with making sure "my big words" get out, let's talk about words. And what you responded to. Jobs are disappearing, to which your current claim is its below historical average. Yes, but above our local. So if you look at that graph, which direction is that line going? And follow up, in my statement is it "employment is higher than ever" or is it "jobs are disappearing". Which statement would correspond to a historical comparison, which one corresponds to a trend? What direction is that trend since the 50 year post covid historical low. > Jobs aren't "disappearing," we're still very much near all-time low unemployment. Ill let you ponder how stupid this sounds, in a fun cookie format. Historically the cookie jar usually has about 20 cookies in it, lately it had 30 cookies, your fat ass eats 9. What happened to those cookies? The cookie jar does have more cookies at 21 than historically, so I guess those 9 cookies just never existed. If you can work this out, you can eat the 10th cookie.

Loan-Pickle

Ehh congress long ago abdicated that responsibility. The last time congress declared war was WWII and we have been in lots of wars since then.

Fresh_Internal_6085

I understand all that. The way I read the other comment was that the person was implying WWIII would be different because nukes would be used, not realizing they were deployed in WWII as well.

Fresh_Internal_6085

There was 2 nukes dropped in WWII..

Apple-Dust

The markets have pushed higher under every president in the last half a century kid, that means nothing. What is different this time is the weakenening US economy and weakest global position of the US since before WWII ended. My gold has been significantly outperforming the market btw.

EventHorizonbyGA

You're close. If a company has cash flow and growth there is rarely a need to give up equity to raise capital and if there is there is enough capital in the private markets that a company wouldn't need to become public. A bank will loan you money or you can raise in the bond market. Becoming public is very expensive and has quite a lot of running costs. Companies only go IPO because the business model doesn't work, or is very unlikely to work (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and the 3000 other companies that went to zero since 1978), or if there is a legal reason, divorce, partnership break-up exit, near bankruptcy, etc (Disney, etc), or if the owners (usually family) want to cash out now and not wait (KO, COKE.) If you make money, you don't need to borrow (Arizona Tea.) If you need to borrow and can borrow without losing equity, you do that (Chick Fil A, Quick Trip, etc.) If you raise capital from one investor and not have to deal with the SEC, you do that. If you can't do those then you have no other choice but go IPO... or go broke. The public sector is the last stop. When companies go IPO that means they can't raise capital anymore in any other way. Now, an IPO is BOTH a capital infusion as the company sells shares AND an exit for early investors. The public sector is where companies go to die. On rare (very rare occasions) they manage to survive and usually it's because of money printing which is something the US did in 1951 post WWII and since the 1980s.

Stunning-Dig-8916

MM understand that all major wars bottom in the first tenth the way through. Markets in WWII bottomed in the first 5 months.

Paul_Robert_

Man, Oppenheimer, Barbie, and Godzilla minus one were a nice trio of banger movies. In a way, Godzilla minus one was Japan's perspective of WWII. Well... Plus a giant kaiju...

Outrageous_Zebra_221

Yeah plus the two that ended WWII were firecrackers compared to what we have now.

LadyRed4Justice

They really do not have a choice as Iran has already proved they do control the Strait which is within their territorial boundaries. Like Panama controls the Panama Canal. The orange minion will have to retreat from this war. Iran will NOT back down. They would destroy their own facilities before they let the US take it. Doing so would destroy a huge portion of the oil leaving the strait. They will never back down anymore than anyone in the US would back down if we were invaded and held hostage. We have paid reparations in most conflicts we have been in. Who do you think provided the money to rebuild Japan after WWII? And most every conflict since.

nunchyabeeswax

Not just their home, but also the home of other nation states through the Arabian's Peninsula's history. Iran only holds one side of the chokepoint. The other is owned by the current polity of Oman. Moreover, ever since the end of WWII, all the nations of the world had a guaranteed "Freedom of the Seas" - commercial ships are free to travel even in territorial waters so long as they are purely commercial and in transit. That was perhaps the number 1 guarantee to global order - most regional and global wars before WW1 involved access to the seas to one degree or another. This idiotic confrontation between three powers has likely changed the security architecture the world has used for 80 years. Art of the Deal.

Stunning-Dig-8916

Just a reminder that the last 7 major wars since WWII all hit the bottom within the first 10% of the conflict.

McKoijion

The "Board of Peace" is the most genocidal organization since WWII.

strutt3r

Never stopped the US historically. More bombs were dropped on North Korea than all munitions in WWII put together. Even more bombs were dropped on Laos. "National Security" just means private enterprise's unimpeded extraction of profit

Key_Lifeguard_8659

If he's the first president to use nukes since WWII, pretty sure he can drop any hope of getting his Nobel Peace Prize. He'll still have his base though. They'll never quit him.

ProofByVerbosity

Ground troops won't change shit. Its a huge country with a challenging terrain. Every U.S. ground mission has failed and this wpuld be likely thier biggest challenge since WWII

ZooZooChaCha

He is just vain enough to be upset the only president to get to hit the red button was a Democrat. REALLY wants to be the first one to do it since WWII.

WrexyWrex

I talked to a guy who was in WWII last month. He was 99 years old. He told me all about his life like he remembers arriving in Italy after Pearl Harbor. This guy was 99 years old and both his parents died in their 50s. He said both of his parents would have lived way longer with the medical advancements we have today. There is no precedent for people living this long, and we aren't paying attention to how the mind is deteriorating. Just because these ghouls are walking around doesn't mean we should be taking their advice.

Ancient-Swordfish292

The allies firebombed entire cities in WWII. Cities with people in them, who burned alive. After the war ended, Curtis LeMay, who ordered a bunch of this, said, "If we had lost the war, we would have been tried as war criminals."

karuchkov

I mean yeah sure, and im not suggesting anyone try to time the market. But jesus christ the world is in an unpresidented place right now. The entire world order thats been at play since WWII has collapsed.

Boomer_With_Dementia

The world is working around it's 🥭 problem. Zelensky has made security deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar and Syria. He has met with Erdogan of Turkey. Italy, France, Spain, and the UK are working hard to avoid being seen as on our side in this conflict so that they can negotiate reasonably for access to goods and oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. China as a customer and obviously some providers have been executing oil transactions in Yuan instead of dollars. France has sided with with Russia and China against us in the security council. Not that France overall loves Russia or China, but there are points of agreement. The gulf states have learned that US guarantees of security ring hollow vs cheap drones. What this means for investing? In a recession everything drops so maybe cash gang for now. If there is some stability in the future then non US defense stocks, gold. Gold for the erosion of the dollar system. Defense stock for the end of the post WWII world order. As for mid level countries that have resources and decent economies, in North America I suspect multinationals are more likely to invest there rather than here. If the US stabilizes and our relationship with Canada stabilizes then they get the benefit of access to our market. If not, well at least they will have Canada. Developing here directly is to risky given 🥭 chaos. I assume we are seeing the development of alliances and arrangements to work around the US in all ways, financial and defense wise.

Candid_Payment_4094

The US hasn't won a true war since WWII lol (war wasn't declared in the Gulf war)

Purple-Coyote-6122

I fear the peace we have had since WWII is about to come to an end. US is in decline, dollar is wobbling, POTUS and his cronies are digging gold by the shovels at expense of regular folks and quite literally the creditworthiness of this country. Godspeed regards, pray we never live to see nuclear weapons going off.

SatisfactionBest7140

To my knowledge, the disinvestment from the US that we are now seeing and the level of distrust in the US by former US allies is unprecedented (since at least WWII). Both are a direct consequence of this administration's policies. Please correct me if I'm wrong (by including specific evidence to the contrary).

SonOfLuigi

In the context of human history, the United States is just the next great empire, the idealistic vision of America post WWII has been shattered and what’s left is a global superpower that has acted just like every other superpower in history. We make mistakes and do terrible things for the purpose of maintaining trade and our grip on power. Every empire gets into quagmires, commits atrocities, etc. I genuinely wish we were better. All that said, my point had nothing to do with right or wrong. It’s a simple statement that the United States military has operated with a level of expertise that is unmatched in human history and on a completely different playing field than anyone else is capable of. Seeing the military unveil what it has been practicing and sharpening for the last 15+ years is awe inspiring, the advancement since our last major military operations is absurd, and what we did in Iraq in 2003 was absurd then too. Hate it all you want, it’s incredible.

sweeetscience

Correct on all counts lol I’ve argued many times to my fellow Americans that our geography has always been our greatest advantage. It was the single factor that allowed the US to attain superpower status after WWII - we were the only major global economy that hadn’t been almost completely destroyed simply because it was militarily impractical to even consider a large-scale invasion of the US. We became a superpower by happenstance, and then spent the next 75 years squandering our position through clandestine an overt bullying.

ChollyWheels

\> are you all buying into this crazy market? Fuck, NO! Do you have ANY concept of the cataclysm that's coming? A huge percentage of the world's ability to produce and ship fossil fuels, fertilizer and helium are GONE. If the war stopped this second it will take the world years to recover, with hunger, severe semi-conductor shortages, and MRI scanning less available. And EVERYTHING will be more expensive. And the world will not forget -- it is rapidly organizing in solidarity against the USA, and to cooperate with each other. And the war is more likely to get much worse before it stops. This is not a "dip" -- it is as big a change (no: bigger) as the fall of royalty after WWI, the fall of the British empire and end of the pound sterling as reserve currency after WWII. No one knows yet what the new world will look like, but it will look different. So what's safe? No clear answer to that. Select stocks may do well. One can guess: CF - a USA profitable producer of fertilizer, or maybe companies that produce helium or rare earths. Gold or silver, maybe. With CDs you at least get interest, but on the dollar who's decline in value (if that happens) may be greater, so the net effect after interest if you have LESS. Personally I'm stocking up on cans of beans.

redditmodsRrussians

Eventually we just gonna go back to using wood gliders like in WWII

TheoryInttro

Purging the military of non-toadies like Stalin did before WWII points to you being right about that. Stalin nearly lost the Motherland because that's what firing everyone competent does; if he hadn't purged the officer corps the German invasion wouldn't have gotten half as far as it did. Extrapolating to the current clusterfuck, purging every competent war planner and replacing them with air farce, chair jockeys and drunken news hosts is unlikely to end well.

LA-Aron

I think you're right. I think this has been on the US docket for decades. From a documented standpoint, the export terminals in the Gulf have been publicly known about since 2014....the conversations did not start then, could have started as far back as the 1930's, post WWII. Israel was created in 1948, partly to help the US with Middle East influence. We (us and Britain) overthrew Iran's leader in 1953. Look at the stock charts during our invasions of the Middle East - you will see a strong correlation with energy stocks and nuclear. Trump, Putin and Bibi are running the world right now. The United States was fully aware how Iran would respond, we wanted that response - why? What's the effect. (1) Russia is reestablished as a global energy superpower by default, they win big. (2) The United States is also now going to become a monster in the oil/lng game. (3) China will still get oil from Iran, we don't care. (4) Iran wins but we don't care because we got what we want. Also, our friends in Saudi got pipeline, they're fine. And we've already greased Qatar in advance. (5) Indirectly, this is an attack on Europe. They're going to get crushed by energy prices and inflation. From Russia's perspective, this is a huge win. (6) There are also some big oil billionaire political backers who are also going to do quite well with the price increases.(7) We are now in control of our own destiny for energy moving forward and have gained an edge on the world. The negatives: (1) Inflation will likely go higher than most of us have seen or will ever see. (2) A recession will almost have to happen in response, prices can't keep running forever. (3) Hard to trust the US moving forward. (4) This is bad for most people, good for very few. Look at the oil chart over time, look at Oxy, other Co's. To me, I see a big fat move that started 30 years ago, and this is the final leg up and it's going to be massive.

plannedgravy

They are at war, what did you expect? You’d be a complete dumbass to allow your own citizens to do BDA for the enemy. In WWII, Brits published articles about V2s landing short. The rockets were hitting dead center of London, but the news articles tricked the Germans to increasing their rockets range.

C2theC

China has its Marshall Plan, the Belt-and-Road Initiative. Even without a major conflict like WWII, the USD slowly ceding its status as the global reserve currency is not going to be good for anyone holding USD over the long term.

ECom_Finance_Guy

Fair point. Implicit in my opinion is the belief that the US won’t suffer a dramatic defeat à la Great Britain in WWII. But anything could happen. I think the Us is in a better position geographically to avoid something like that, but we will see

GearTwunk

Oh. Sorry for helping end WWII, I guess.

Retaining-Wall

Modern war has always spooked me, but I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't get in a time machine to go and experience first-hand WWII. But I'm also a huge 20th century history nerd, and would probably regret my decision to get in the time machine when I come back with shellshock.

staythewaters

Trump said he wanted to shift to a war economy, probably to mimic WW2 style expansion. But if he uses that budget to turn around and destroy energy infrastructure or try to "take it" like he keeps threatening, then that just makes it a wash. Higher energy prices means higher prices on manufacturing and logistics, means margins start getting eaten into. Paired with the fact that much of the war spending in WWII went toward giving direct aid to rebuilding countries to bring them under the US' sphere of influence, which aided in our own expansion. If you're just spending money on military expansionism and blowing shit up, you're not going to get any return back.

CoughRock

they are forced to give up all the colonies due to the crushing WWII debt. Before it was the reserve currency supply and bank of the world. Let this be a lesson on excessive borrowing and running huge national deficit to the next reserve currency nation.

marsman706

Since it says from 1946 onward, its probably to help with rebuilding after WWII. Same with the UK

Dont-be-a-cupid

"lol, Trump and Putin are just burning down the post WWII order." That happened long ago for the global south. Every US president from the cold war onwards has played their part. And European cowardice after Iraq just emboldened Putin.

Character_Minimum989

Ya Iran never ratified UNCLOS so tough shit, post WWII order lol, that includes US invading several countries right?

ChaseballBat

Didn't the CIA set up the current leadership in Iran decades after WWII?

Current-Function-729

It’s an international waterway. lol, Trump and Putin are just burning down the post WWII order.

Manufactured_feces

My favorite part of the speech was when he compared this war to WWI AND WWII

Spez_is-a-nazi

Demographics spell bad time for Nike and a lot of companies like it. Their growth has always depended on an endlessly increasing number of brand conscious teenagers and young adults who are willing to pay a premium for a brand name on their apparel. In absolute terms the number of teenagers hasn’t been this low in the US in about 40 years, in relative terms it’s never been this low. And the US has one of the better looking population structures in the affluent world. There really isn’t a growth story for Nike.  Honestly I think the market hasn’t yet priced in the demographic realities unfolding. The focus on demographics is mostly around the working age to retiree ratio but there are so many other downstream effects that just aren’t really paid much attention. One is that the consumer base is now no longer endlessly expanding like it has for the past 80 years after WWII. Companies are going to have to shift their mindset in order to grow.

sweeetscience

The US has been the guarantor of _global maritime_ security since WWII, not just this particular strait. The true repricing moment is when everyone realizes that this singular event dismantled that guarantee without an effective or capable replacement. What happens if pirates start seriously threatening the Malaca Strait? Who’s going to do the work to make it safe for commercial traffic? What happens if socialist narco-terrorists start deploying kamikaze USVs outside the Panama Canal? Who would take the lead to break a blockade of Taiwan? Not that anyone bothers to enforce EEZ infringement anyways, but who takes on the responsibility of cracking down on Chinese overfishing by commercial fleets in protected waters (sounds minor until you see the scale of it. It’s a globally shared resource after all and we definitely depend on it like everyone else)? There isn’t a single navy on earth that can do any of these except the US Navy. As of today it is no longer a reliable guarantor. It’s a weird time to be alive for sure

Dorkicus

The last time Congress declared war was WWII. There have been hundreds of military operations since then. The executive branch has been wiping its butt on the Constitution for over 80 years.

GreyMatter22

He basically said how long WWI, WWII, the Korean, and other recent wars are, going from 4 years to decades. And how we are only 32 days in, and that stocks haven't even fallen by that much. Super low energy demeanor. It all sounds how we need to strap in, and face the upcoming oil/energy crisis, which will absolutely lead to a contracting GDP.

redhed16

Comparing the length of this to WWII. oh good.

jersey856

No, I, neither have 98% of ppl on this thread, listened to either man. Should we also listen to African and S American leaders the talk crazy, or just ones that threaten Israel, I mean red herring? We waited until the bitter end to enter WWII don’t see why we couldn’t do the same for 3

FreshestCremeFraiche

Yeah look at the years. Great Depression, WWII, 2008 financial crisis, COVID. These are all surrounding disaster

poozyfloor

No kidding. Let's just dismantle the post WWII era which was the most stable in history. Markets go up.

Funk_Apus

How was Germany’s stock market after WWII? I figure it’s about 50/50 at this point, that is where we will be.

econoDoge

Listen , I hear your concern, WWII War bonds were sold in post offices but we all know mail is evil and full of fraud, that's why these are being sold exclusively on the finest affiliated stores, and just like the millions that were donated to the campaign the funds will go where they are intended and not into a giant talking gold statue in the middle of central park with a casino in the basement and a McD franchise.

coldandhungry123

The Iranian military by way of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the local militias cannot be killed with an aerial bombardment. That doesn't seem to be the objective. Destroying their capabilities for nukes, greatly damaging their air defenses and degrading their supplies of drones/missiles was a priority and largely that has been accomplished. To a certain extent, we bombed the Axis powers into submission during WWII. Firebombing military and civilian targets in Germany and Japan with such intensity as to produce casualties far exceeding the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The relentless bombing runs by Allies decimated those two countries, which basically had to be rebuilt from scratch.

CoughRock

depend on if the toll is higher than the cost of maintain navy/air force there. Our military contractors aren't exactly know for budget efficient and running under cost. IE: cost of afghan war was around 2.3 trillions. It's going to cost you a huge sum of cash while our nation is running a huge deficit. Not sure if it's worth to pay that much just to protect one man's ego. Let's not forget, Prior to WWII. Great Britain was the world's de facto banking system. Every one borrow from them and has to obey them financially. WWII put them through huge amount of war debt and force borrowing from usa. Effectively gave up their banking power and destroy any ability to maintain oversea colonies. Who's to say the same thing won't happen to us if we escalate this to a world war. The neutral country that finance the next world war will be the winner post war and control the global currency.

DrawMeAPictureOfThis

WWII had a ton of public works programs. WWIII doesn't have a government that will fund productivity

James161324

Tariffs: Well, they are stupid. The question is, who else are you going to trade with? The US makes up 33% of global consumption. Cutting off trade with the US will create a depression in most nations. Military: it's nothing new, the US has been in countless wars since WWII. Internal investment: this is nothing new, and isn't just a US problem. Political instability: A bit of revisionist history. U.S. politics have always been pretty polarizing, and social media makes it seem far worse. Once again, it's also not a US issue either. It sounds like you're highlighting broader global issues that aren't just isolated to the US. Could there be a catch-up trade in international markets of course, is America on the brink of collapse that much more than most other developed countries no.

JakeTappersCat

Why can't we just create synthetic oil like the germans did in WWII? Maybe stocks remembered that and that's why the market is up

JonathanPhillipFox

This is a Tragedy, >"Tragedy is when I cut my finger.  ***Comedy*** is when you ***fall*** into an ***open sewer*** and ***die***." *Mel Brooks* ...but if Keir Starmer and Donald Trump spend a few hours in a room alone together and Keir Starmer emerges to, "apologize, on behalf of Myself **alone** ***and humbly, with humility, accept the shame and the scorn I have earned,"*** **It Might have been him, I do not know** I do not remember and I think it might have been >***...due to my failures as a husband, as a Minister*** **as a result of....** Pensive moment >Cowardice, C\_ckoldry, and The **R Slur I have become the Straight of Hormoz,** This might be a Chicken and Egg situation all I'm saying, "I think to hate him as a lawyert if I was on the wrong end of a Human Rights Violation," can almost see those eyes pop through the spectacles *so you'd have to make them pop through the spectacles* ***you'd have to see what his face does when you throw out the old, "What do*** **you think about Carlos the Jackal,"** not even kidding thus was a conversation foisted upon me by a Prominent Local Attorney when I went to the Victims of Domestic Violence Ball While His Mom *yes in her 90's told my girlfriend at the time what an Honor it has always been to be a graduate of Ursuline* the highschool in town **fastest, easiest and Most Appropriate at which to cast a remake of the 2008 James Franco film** ***Spring Breakers*** while her son was like, "I used to read about him a lot in college, used to read about him and think," I was not going to take this bait but he insisted, "what if he'd been **right, you know, what if he'd been,"** ***right about how to LIVE*** [Grasping, Desperately, for a panic button under the wood table as we speak](https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20260110_BRP504.jpg), "I think that Naked Lunch is **underrated, sir Kier, You?"**[ He's going to have to call his own lawyer,](https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2175312180.jpg) **You have that kind of Conversation back at his day job, "I'd bet but cannot prove and I'll roll the Dice on the airport conversation about this at the possible expense of a trip to the V&A Museu**m," that you might be in a Hot Pickle you ever depended upon him as an actual Litigator of ~~Civil~~ Human Rights Law, an actual, Lawyer, of Human Rights >Keir Starmer is a British politician and former high-profile human rights lawyer who became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in July 2024. As a barrister at Doughty Street Chambers, he specialized in international law, civil liberties, and criminal law, earning distinction as Queen’s Counsel in 2002 and serving as Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) from 2008 to 2013 Yeah that **would have been no fun as a defendant but Etiam Pecatta, Etiam Pecatta, Etiam Pecatta, we've got the Vicar of Christ out there arguing, "I agree** ***so much I agree," to outlaw aerial bombing in warfare internationally, "we have not disarmed in the 108 Years since the First War," and that*** *could be the difference between war becomes* ***just aerial bombing, of just civilian areas, in just total warfare against the entire state society, economy, and culture also from the civilian infastructure*** **out to the front lines of lesser and lesser importance, "or," or,** **People went out for picnics to watch Civil War Battles** 100% certain that they'd been the sickest f\_cks on field, that no one would then do a little Carthage on the Town, "fell in 146 BC," Carthage and from **then up until about Dresden remained the unique example of such behavior all at once and Deliberately, "numerous examples to follow," innumerable** ***and if Chenghis Khan Burnt half the world down he was also a lot more judicious in his approach to the aftermath*** **I'll cite that for the doubters, "I remember when I was like** ***oh that Andrew Tate," and My Own Little Brother won the Bareknuckle Boxing Round Robin Tourney, in Dadaal Suum for Naadam, "just forgot,"*** **but just forget that in the context of, "guys."** **Because these guys are so vulgar, these guys are so gross** *anyone out there see the featherweight champ from the real Mongolia win at UFC this last year, "didn't even ever see an UFC Fight I think," those guys watch Sumo on Satelite from NHK* ***he 100% could have but I don't think he bothered to he fought him for real,*** **"Mongolia is Blessed with an Eternal Blue Sky," real bushi stuff** real real bushi stuff no aerial warfare from Mongolia; there are some boys from America or the UK out there trying to **do the enclosure act, "they've not got one," and I get their intentions** ***you have all the land on paper with anyone, "for sheep*** **that's the project is Real Nice Wool," but franchised like a machine** enclosure act stuff literally, that's what they'd told their uncle or somesuch, "out the Gobi there is an Apotheosis of War Statue," a real one made of all the Shin Gunto Blades of the **entire Japanese Land Invasion of WWII, "they'd just dissapeared," it's out in the Gobi and if you consider that they're made from House Blades of Samurai, that all of them Japan got cut in half and those just piled up the desert I'd bet I dunno** **Several Hundred Million, might be, those swords, "doesn't matter," Mongolia is blessed with an eternal blue sky; not a problem** those kids from I hear, "not a problem," as wicked as that plan is **I do have the former president of Mongolia's personal chess set and Family Photo Album as a result of what happens when politics becomes** ***involuntary, there, "Rory Stewart stuff," and yes literally, both still REAK of fire they've been a wood box for years now, like*** I say, Let the Coward Keir Starmer apologize for this mess he got us all into, "as I recall he'd done this," how it goes, really, **no one remembers who broke the window at the Phillips 66 Gas Station Robbery, but, it is always a guy** ***a lot like Keir Starmer***

Arhys

The USA really pissed on everything built in terms of international diplomacy and rules built ever since the WWII. I know it wasn't perfect but now it's basically worthless. I hope when the rebuilding is finished there are no longer permanent members of the Security Council or at least there is a working mechanism to shut them down when they or their allies/vassals commit transgressions.

floridabeach9

“far worse” tarriffs and russia invading ukraine werent worse than this, and covid was obviously just a bad 3 months. this has potential to be much worse than anything we’ve experienced since WWII. if the red sea and persian gulf BOTH get locked down, it 100% will be.

CantaloupeSea48

Pretty much. They are all PUUUsies. Poland is the only one with balls any more. They remember WWII. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Nervous_Building109

A total US victory Total surrender and elimination of the Iranian government New Iranian government that is friendly like Germany and Japan after WWII We need boots on the ground. Let's go!

Complaintsdept123

There is no evidence after WWII of any nuclear country using their nukes. Why is this situation any different?

Exact_Entrepreneur66

You can go pretty much go to any reputable newspaper(US as well as international) as well as social media and check it out yourself.....There were no videos of nazis mass murdering in WWII, so by your logic you shouldn't believe in the number of people they said died in WWII?

asetniop

>The Soviet Union sustained around 27 million total deaths (8.7M military, 19M civilians), while Germany lost roughly 5.3 to 7.4 million people... By your logic Germany beat the Soviets in WWII.

PJM123456

Because the number of people that change their own oil, let alone fix their own cars is approaching thw number of surviving WWII vets. And I’m a grease monkey in my spare time.

ButtCoinBuzz

The US will need to commit troop numbers significantly greater than the 2007 surge to hold the Straight meaningfully. The US will need to hold enough terrotory inland to make strikes on occupied coastlines areas difficult. I don't see these objectives being accomplished without a draft and casualty numbers we havent seen since WWII. I dont think the petrodollar was a concern here. In fact, I dont think any serious analysis or consideration for global balance, hegemony happened. This was pure hubris gone too far. I foresee this war lasting well into the next administration.

yasashinosegei

Maybe they will execute the last protocol the Japanese government announced but failed to do at the end of WWII. I believe the unofficial name was ‘ichioku gyokusa’, roughly translatable to 100 million shattered jewels, meaning sacrificing the entirety of the 100 million Japanese population to resist their enemies. Iran’s last census has them at 93 million, so it wouldn’t be that far off if they went with it.