WWII

adebyrne

It be interesting if Taiwan and TSMC decided to back the other horse. Why wouldn't they? Theyre only "American" because they weren't returned after WWII and they were subsidised. Now they are being told what to do. Isn't that why they didn't want the people's Republic?

MrNovember13

What? >Comparative advantage isn't a staple of economics, it is what trade relationships are based on Yeah... this is basic economics. Like freshman shit. I'm curious what you think economics entails. My current knowledge of China is current. They have two clunker carriers and one current generation carrier. The US has eleven supercarrier groups. While China has a larger navy by boat numbers, no country comes remotely close to the US in terms of global logistics and technological prowess. The notion spewed by the right that the US is somehow lagging in the global military sphere is laughable and just wrong. The US has a global monopoly on violence. Just because it's not wantonly employed, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There is not a single situation post WWII where the US has not imposed its will when it wants and where it wants to do so.

Qubed

Technically, this is/was the post WWII world order that was instituted as policy. It was based on forced integration into the world economy most controlled by the US and European countries.  Those leaders would created and the following generation that progressed it are dying off. That's why it is falling apart.

NoApartheidOnMars

The 2000 dotcom bust, the 1998 Asian crisis, the Savings & Loans scandal, the 1987 crash, the two oil shocks. Capitalism only functioned properly for about 30 years following WWII. After that, they started clawing back all those things that generation had obtained.

ETR_Reports

Comparing to real GDP fits in to the wage argument. We can compare wages to cost of living, and we can also compare wages to the overall productivity. Wages vs cost of living only measures living standards. Wages vs overall productivity measures what proportion of overall productivity labor is receiving. It indicates where the money is going (and answers the OP of this thread, "Where all this money coming from?") The answer is not from socks and pillow cases, but asset managers of the wealthy. Exactly as you mentioned, "if you want to reap the benefits of increased productivity, own the productivity instead of agreeing to a wage." Since the late 70s-early 80s, neoliberal economics has put us into a K-shaped economy, where the profits of productivity go to asset owners instead of labor as was the previous post-WWII norm. This has given us rising inequality and entrenched power within the top 1 and top 10% most wealthy. As wages have stagnated against cost of living, and steeply declined against productivity, it has become increasingly difficult for labor to afford to buy any assets. Every asset boom and bust cycle has proved as a crisis for labor and an opportunity for the asset holder. This feedback loop further increases the power of the asset holder, further suppresses wages, and worsens the ever growing levels of inequality.

Falcon3492

He said this the last time he was in office and his economy was I believe the 17th best of all time. FDR had the best economy of all time with a GDP of 10.1 % but he was president during WWII, Clinton and Obama's economies were much better than Trumps.

FinestCrusader

Japanese soldier continues to fight for 30 years after the end of WWII

Mr_Doubtful

You’re kind of proving my point. Nobody’s saying all dot-coms made money — obviously most didn’t — but a lot of tech companies during that era were extremely profitable: Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Dell, HP, IBM, etc. They were real businesses caught up in the same market mania. And your IBM comment doesn’t even make sense — being founded before WWII doesn’t exclude it from the dot-com era. Nvidia was founded in the ’90s, long before AI hype, but it’s still part of today’s “AI era.” Same logic. The point is: there were plenty of profitable companies during the bubble; profits didn’t stop valuations from going insane then, and they won’t necessarily stop it now either.

ChadInNameOnly

Exactly. Bro needs to zoom out. Even moreso, I'd argue gold has been going up for quite a while now due to the US evidently losing its grip on being the stable, lone global hegemon it's been since WWII. Trump's recent incompetencies have only accelerated the decline.

strip_club_dj

I'm not really versed in Japanese politics to say either way, Japan is a pretty conservative society. I don't know if rising nationalism there is a good thing or not but she is extremely hawkish on China and supports strengthening their military beyond merely a defense force which maybe what the region needs. She has made some controversial comments like downplaying Japanese war crimes and claiming the Japanese empire was fighting a war of defense prior and during WWII though.

milkplantation

The S&P has had a 25 year period where it was underwater (‘29-‘54) and post WWII it had two 7 year periods where it was underwater (‘73-‘80 and ‘00-‘07) as well as a 6 year period where it was underwater (‘07-‘13) Basically, if you bought the peak in August 2000, you would have had to wait 13 years until March 2013 to recover your money in any sustained manner. So 13 years, and that’s not inflation adjusted. So sure, the market always goes up. But consider your horizon. If you won’t need to access your money or are 15+ years from retirement, then by all means, set it and forget it. But if you are approaching retirement or need/want money for a large expense like a house, your child’s tuition, a car, whatever…Then make sure you can wait it out or consider some defensive positions. As long as the music is playing, keep dancing. But do so with the knowledge that extended slumps do occur. The average downtime after a bear market is 3 years and the median downtime is 2 years.

chris-rox

At least until the 1950s. Some people believe there really isn't even a middle-class, just people that had cash post WWII. Explains why most blacks still don't live as well as whites.

Reelpicker

At 25 the absolute best thing to do is stay the course and keep investing. When it goes down you’re buying it in sale. Also look back at how quickly the market recovered from seemingly catastrophic events. WWII, JFK assassination, 9/11, dot com bubble, housing bubble, pandemic…. If you were 65 sure, protect gains. But timing the market is a sure way to lose out on the best gains. I’m 50 and all I can say is I wish I’d invested more and more regularly at your age.

Reelpicker

At 25 the absolute best thing to do is stay the course and keep investing. When it goes down you’re buying it in sale. Also look back at how quickly the market recovered from seemingly catastrophic events. WWII, JFK assassination, 9/11, dot com bubble, housing bubble, pandemic…. If you were 65 sure, protect gains. But timing the market is a sure way to lose out on the best gains. I’m 50 and all I can say is I wish I’d invested more and more regularly at your age.

PtnbZ

Yeah. They took power after the WWII. De Gaulle gave them too much, and they kept spreading. Now you have to work in France to finance the boomers, because it’s the « contrat social ». Everything went to shit Because of them.

Pohmell

> the WWII

Sandvicheater

Whoever created Social security was kinda regarded, they were expecting infinite population growth to support the older workers not realizing there could be mass downward spike in youth population due to war, disease, emigration, etc. And even for the sake of argument there was guaranteed rise in population growth of youth eventually you're gonna run out of livable space in the country. To be fair it was created before WWII had it been considered after the WWII i think it would've been shot down.

Harley2280

>Post WWII their market went down 97% Yeah getting nuked is pretty bad for your economy.

Emotional-Power-7242

Japan had both of the two biggest stock market crashes that didn't involve communist revolutions. Post WWII their market went down 97% and during the 90's their market went down 43% then stagnated leading to a 34 year period before reaching previous peak. What's good is diversification.

Sir_PressedMemories

So, here in the US when scientists said "we have a vaccine and a simple mask will help prevent spread, and please wash your hands, it is a great way to prevent the spread" people said fuck that, the vaccines have 5g trackers in them, I am not wearing a mask you can't make me, and washing your hands makes you gay. People went out and bought masks made of mesh material, which are completely ineffective at anything. Those who could not work starved to death because the entirety of the government's help was a $1500 deposit. That was it. And not everyone got it. Well, there was a ton of loans sent out, but those were only for business owners and the already wealthy, which were then used to buy cars and boats and make home improvements instead of being used to pay employees, which is what it was created for. Oh, and then those loans were all forgiven, but forgiving student loans is communism. My country is a sick country. We are going to go to war. Stay away from us. Maybe in a generation or two, we will heal, but we are about to experience our own WWII-type regime change. Well, we are already experiencing it. Some folks are actively cheering it on.

Okayyyayyy

Except this has happened recently and WWII was almost a century ago

DrElkSnout

F is a wartime resource for production, just like during WWII. It's possible that the shit is about to hit the fan and the big boys know it.

Emotional-Power-7242

Emerging Markets got hammered in the post WWII period when Japan lost 97% of its market cap and China withdrew from markets entirely. In this case the risk of investing in less developed markets was realized. And this period is why emerging markets have underperformed over the last 120 or whatever years. Other than 1945-1949 they have actually outperformed over long periods. Of course right now we're in a 20+ year period of massive US large cap outperformance which makes everything else look terrible. It's up to you I suppose whether this is the new normal or there will eventually be a correction.

milkplantation

Economic shocks destabilize societies and give governments the nudge toward desperate policy decisions. Could look to the Smoot Hawley Tariffs deepening the global economic slump leading to bloc economies and empowering aggressive regimes which ultimately dovetailed into WWII. Could look to US freezing Japanese assets and cutting off oil supplies on Japan who was in the midst of an economic depression thus leading to Pearl Harbour. Germany’s hyper inflation before the Nazi party rise to power. For gold to have the run its had, there needs to be some concern beyond inflation such as global conflict.

ratpH1nk

Always? I think we will see something on the order of dot com bust but not as bad and also not as long for the recovery. US tax policy has got to change. |**Crash / Event**|**Peak Date**|**Trough Date**|**Decline (%)**|**Bear Market Duration (peak → trough)**|**Recovery Time (to regain prior high)**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**Great Depression**|Sep 1929|Jul 1932|−86%|\~34 months|25 years (to 1954)| |**1937–1938 Recession**|Mar 1937|Apr 1938|−60%|\~13 months|\~4 years (to 1942)| |**Post-WWII Crash**|May 1946|Jun 1949|−30%|\~37 months|\~6 years (to 1954)| |**1973–74 Oil Crisis / Stagflation**|Jan 1973|Oct 1974|−48%|\~21 months|\~7 years (to 1980)| |**1987 Crash (Black Monday)**|Aug 1987|Dec 1987|−36%|\~3 months|\~2 years (to 1989)| |**Dot-Com Bust**|Mar 2000|Oct 2002|−49%|\~31 months|\~7 years (to 2007)| |**Global Financial Crisis**|Oct 2007|Mar 2009|−57%|\~17 months|\~6 years (to 2013)| |**COVID Crash**|Feb 2020|Mar 2020|−34%|\~1 month|\~5 months (to Aug 2020)| |**2022 Inflation/Fed Tightening**|Jan 2022|Oct 2022|−27%|\~9 months|\~2 years (recovered by Jul 2023)|

theinvisiblecar

Careful on using that word conservatism, as argument could be made the opposite: The dark ages were a conservative maintenance of the feudal order of the time, with the rich estate/castle owners controlled all the wealth, and with peasants as workers either going with the land or granted small pittances, then along came disruptions to the conservative order of things: battle was fought and the people won rights (the magna carta), the black death/plague and wars dropped the population to near half creating labor shortages and increased wages for the little guys, creating more expendable income and launching Europe into the renaissance. Then with the discovery of three new continents poorer Europeans could immigrate elsewhere in order to have land and build their own fortunes. If one wants to continue this timeline into America: The year 1862 saw the passage of Abe Lincoln's Homestead Act, giving people up to 125 acres of land for free in the west, places like California, Arizona, Texas, if they would just move onto that land and work it for 5 years, (even immigrants fresh off the boat at Ellis Island took advantage this, and this law, this act, remained in effect through most of the 20^(th) century, and millions upon millions of people took advantage of it.) Lincoln did this to populate the west for strategic reasons, and we have this image of the west being made on rugged individualism and true grit, and maybe it took a good bit of grit to take advantage of the Homestead Act, but in a way it was also one a great big welfare giveaway, maybe the biggest welfare giveaway in all of history. (Give me a 125 acres in California or Texas and maybe I'll go live on it for the next five years right away, and do something with the land, at least grow some vegetables!) Then the disruption of the great depression leading into WWII, and with FDR's GI bill vast numbers of not-so-rich people, including even great numbers of the oppressed minority (black Americans,) earned good pay and had college degrees paid for, and out from all of this emerged the greatest middle-class society the world had ever seen, and with the U.S. GDP being greater than half of the entire world's GDP. Now for close to a half century we have seen a great erosion of the middle class, and the truth just may be that a two-tiered economy (with people increasingly either among the rich, or else among the poor, and with a vanishing middle,) just cannot size up to being as big and as healthy of an economy as one that has a big and strong middle class. Anyway, I consider myself to be a conservative, but it's good to be careful with words like conservative and liberal, as they can mean very different things in different contexts: The emergence of Europe from the dark ages was more a matter of liberal factors working against the long and conservative order of things, or like at the founding of the U.S. it was the liberals for independence and democracy, and it was the conservatives who wanted the colonies to remain under the rule of King George. In that sense I would hope that all patriotic American conservatives would consider themselves to be among the liberals, believing that America's independence from England and securing the rights of people as individuals, were good things.  

notapersonaltrainer

Let's quantify this: There are ~800,000 H-1B visa holders. These are not O-1 “extraordinary ability” visas, and it doesn’t block Indians from normal immigration. That’s about **0.22% of the U.S. population**, mostly low- to mid-level workers, who are apparently critical to post-WWII American tech dominance. Google has 7,649 H-1Bs, $371.4B in revenue, and $74.9B in free cash flow. Covering its H-1Bs would cost $765M per year—**0.21% of revenue** or **1.15% of free cash flow**—for what’s being framed as the lynchpin of its operation. The impact is larger for indian outsourcing mills like Cognizant, but I've never met anyone worried about protecting their margins.

notapersonaltrainer

To put numbers on this: There are ~800,000 H-1B visa holders. These are not O-1 “extraordinary ability” visas, and it doesn’t block Indians from normal immigration. That’s about **0.22% of the U.S. population**, mostly low- to mid-level workers, who are apparently critical to post-WWII American tech dominance. Google has 7,649 H-1Bs, $371.4B in revenue, and $74.9B in free cash flow. Covering its H-1Bs would cost $765M per year—**0.21% of revenue** or **1.15% of free cash flow**—for what’s being called the lynchpin of its operation. The impact is larger for indian outsourcing mills like Cognizant, but I've never met anyone worried about protecting their margins.

notapersonaltrainer

Just to size this dooming: There are ~800,000 H1B visa holders. These are not the extraordinary ability O-1 visas. This also doesn't ban indians from regular immigration. That's 0.22% of the US population of low-mid level workers you're claiming is responsible for post WWII American tech dominance. Google has 7,649 H1B's, $371.40 billion revenue, and $74.9 billion free cash flow. So It would cost $765 million/year, or 0.21% of revenue, or 1.15% of FCF, to preserve what you are claiming is the lynchpin for all their innovation. Now this would be a bigger deal for indian consultant mills like Cognizant, but I've never met anyone shedding tears for their profit margins.

notapersonaltrainer

There are ~800,000 H1B visa holders. These are not the extraordinary ability O-1 visas. This also doesn't ban indians from regular immigration. That's 0.22% of the US population of low-mid level workers you're claiming is responsible for post WWII American tech dominance.

merlin2181

There was a golden era because of WWII. The US was the only manufacturing giant left to make things.

ThatLooksRight

Yeah, and look what happened to them during WWII. 

destinationdadbod

Being optimistic here. Not trying to start any political arguments or anything. Just looking at the situation with some positivity and objectivity. I think the plan was to increase tariffs on foreign products to encourage companies to produce products domestically. Producing products domestically requires infrastructure which requires money from businesses to build the infrastructure. Making the cost of borrowing money would make it cheaper for a business to borrow money to build the infrastructure. Now more products could be made in America and we are less reliant on foreign countries for our goods. Now where do you get the workers? I think that is the optimistic goal of the immigration push. If the undocumented workers are not here then there are jobs in rural America for poor Americans to take. There is a push by secretary of labor right now to promote manufacturing jobs to Americans. To me it seems like they are trying to revive the pride in blue collar workers that existed in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. This all leads to a pre WWII mentality in America of being self sufficient and having less foreign involvement than we have today. Is this all working? 🤷🏻‍♂️ Again. This is me being optimistic and regurgitating things I’ve read, heard, seen, and kind of pondered on my commute.

ManifestWestward

Reddit let's the uneducated make shit posts like this, but the reality is the WWII generation was CONSERVATIVE. They would never be Antifa. In fact if they could see the world today, they'd turn around and fight WITH the Nazis and Japs.

AntoniaFauci

All sensible. I do believe, and have for many years, that organic rates will be lower than present. Rates are essential the price intersect of supply and demand. If we view generational wealth transfer and corporate profits as supply, and the demographics of where that flows as demand, that implies low price, i.e. very low rates. It’s not the post-WWII era. We aren’t building a nation of homes, or an interstate system, or sending our kids to college. The demand for borrowed money is now what it was, even as the supply of wealth is high.

CategoryAbject8977

Keyboard warrior? If I was drafted, I would go to war. If my child was drafted, they would go to war. My grandfather was a fighter pilot in WWII. I had three uncles who fought in Vietnam. I’m from a family of people who value what we have in America. i’m not some weak, unpatriotic clown whining about how prior generations fucked me over. I’m not some beta cuck like you.

Poor_Ape6969

Dawg they still eat like they’re in WWII

CoffeeMaker999

The UK has been a pretty depressing place since before the start of WWII. Low wages, high housing costs and little to hope for. The UK was in such bad shape they had food rationing for almost a decade *after* the war ended.

john42195

I was thinking the same thing. Train left the station over 10 years ago. The reason is the post WWII baby boom started many years ago…like 80.

MimicoSkunkFan2

The idea they're all raging Republicans comes from Vietnam when (WWII draft-dodger) John Wayne and some very Republican officers were the public face of the US military establishment. Since it's all volunteers now, it follows the politics of the volunteers which varies a lot. For example, that Great Lakes base near Chicago has Marine Corps reservists, so all the volunteers for that reserve unit were Chicagolanders, who tend to be deeply Democrat. But when they deployed they got put together with a reserve unit from North Carolina, and all those reservists were from hardcore Christian areas which vote Republican. My cousin was part of the Chicago group and wrote me a lot about it, there was definitely a cultural learning curve for everybody lol

Diamondphalanges756

He fired all the people who would stand up to him and that's why troops are in DC raking leaves and picking up trash. Shameful! And I agree that this is a slap in the face to many people. My Dad was a Marine in WWII and Korea, and I find myself thankful that he's no longer here to see this. I believe it all would have killed him. I'm serious.

atomMD

I agree with your sentiments but folks underestimate how much of our global financial system is held together by USA. After WWII, USA had Bretton Woods conference to reboot global finances. America was placed at the center of it. Obviously since we went of Gold the USD has been on a debasement journey but we are not at the end of the road. You think China will step in? I see crypto nation states before that happens.

eyevanv

"What once seemed unshakable now feels fragile" I think that this statement kind of reiterates the point that 2010's were a decade of relative safety and stable "growth" in the US/world economy, and that people are almost spoiled by the financial and geopolitical state of the prior decade. It has been just over 15 years since the GFC, and less than 25 since the dot com bubble and 9/11. I highly doubt people considered stock market and the US economy unshakeable after both of those sagas. Not to mention the "war on terrorism" which was still going on, though to a lesser extent, and this is all just the recent history. Plenty of other reasons to flip your shit during the post WWII era in the US alone. As other comments have pointed out, wild shit has and will keep going on in our world, and there will always be reasons for fear, uncertainty, and doubt. VOO and chill.

fuf3d

I didn't agree with his points but I learned how to not hate someone because of what they claim to believe through Charlie. Years ago I was triggered by TPUSA, by Charlie and his staff. Now, having overcome my reactivity, I'm concerned about the rapid increase in political violence and where it's heading. Astrologically the US is up for some very tough years, echoing WWII, and the Civil War. Things are coming that will test the nation to its core, and I'm not sure it has one left, and if it does it's been corrupted. Leaving us, the individuals to sort it all out and make our own way through what's likely to be a hellscape... unless we can fight it through fiction and storytelling we are in deep trouble.

jollycreation

I’m an evil cunt? Your self-righteous, myopic anger will fit in well with your right wing fascist brethren. And you are concerned about the US *becoming* the world police? And that’s a “leftist” issue? I honestly have no idea where to even start. Maybe WWII.

Icreatedthisforyou

Damn down 1.5 million total, we must have had negative growth in 2024 under Biden!!! Oh we still added over 1.5 million total in 2024, and Biden ONLY added 14.6 million jobs over is 4 years. Biden has now dropped to the 3rd best president in job creation since WWII (out of 14), after previously being the 3rd best president in job creation since WWII. What a fucking loser. Headlines are fun. Are there valid complaints about data collection and how the outdated methodology the BLS uses is causing issues? Yes. Will there continue to be over estimates? Absolutely, that is likely to continue given the methodology. Which is troubling given May is barely positive, June already was revised negative, July is within the range several months have been revised down, and August is likely to follow said pattern.

No-Adeptness357

Even if European companies wanted to, what European company has the pockets to join this game? Where is the capacity going to come from? Even then, whose chips are they going to use to power their data centers? Europe has no alternative because they haven’t created a global competitor since WWII. The continent is more concerned with fighting over who gets the dwindling supply of wealth than it is in creating more wealth.

Dimitri3p0

Agreed. Post WWII Germany, the stock market did well in nominal terms, and it was still better than keeping cash under the mattress but buying power still degraded and depleted due to gains not keeping up with the collapse of the currency. I don't see how or why the dollar would turn around now and begin strengthening again given the current situation.

FawningDeer37

Reading this biography of Stalin has made me reconsider my opinion of 🥭. Stalin really did some shit. Industrialized the biggest nation in the world in like 8 years. Killed millions. Won WWII. Banged so many women (but not children.) 🥭 is like the Temu version of the Amazon version of a guy who wants to be Stalin.

ConsiderationKey1658

This is why we kicked your ass in WWII

EvolvingDior

We had a Dept of War. It was renamed after WWII,

Mountain_Sand3135

Many Americans died for China quest for victory and glory....what is he talking about...he cannot be talking about WWII .......USA was very comfortable providing weapons and staying out until pearl harbor .

pizzapiesinthesky

Simply put, he is trying to crash the economy. When he succeeds (he's nearly there already), and people become desperate, he and his government cronies will come up with a "solution" to "help" the citizens. This "solution" will likely involve them sending out "stimmies"/"free" money. Of course, this money will come with many strings attached that will usher in more authoritarianism. Basically, he is taking a page right out of the dictators' handbook. Don't believe me? Research WWI and WWII, and you'll quickly understand what drove Germans toward...well, you know the guy's name, so I won't risk being banned on Reddit. Driving citizens to the brink of desperation after an economic crash is usually Step 1 in these "games" dictators play.

curlnut3_14

Hes referring to when the US provided aid to China during WWII to stop Japan from invading.

ConsiderationKey1658

Yes. WWII

OrdinaryWeekly7468

You say "legally" they can't do it.. but they're doing it regardless. Alligator Alcatraz gets shut down? They reopen the exact same type of facility in former internment camps used in WWII. Deploying the military into cities? They use the National Guard for now as test grounds, but to use that to sic the military on people later. To the extent that they can't do something legally (which they have wide latitude to do anyway because the law in the US is nothing if not fascist to begin with), they have workarounds until they can keep judges on a leash... which they're currently in the process of doing.

ScootieJr

A hedge fund investment manager has no business trying to tell businesses how to run... businesses. He graduated with a degree in political science and immediately went to work for the Soros Fund Management company. He is intentionally misusing tariffs, and wants to repeat history with the Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act, like how it worsened the great depression until WWII... They want to actively cause a world war, thinking that we would be able to manufacture and sell weapons like we did in WWII, which boosted our economy. Except this time around, it would only boost the Executives of manufacturer's pockets and won't help the general population at all. Every country is going to be against us in the next World War.

OrdinaryWeekly7468

"You're confusing political power with power" Right now, they're one-in-the-same. In the post-WWII era, we were getting closer to political power being derived from civic power. But it's not. It hasn't been that way since January 19th. This administration has pretty well recreated political power to be synonymous with executive capital-P power. Trump doesn't need his cult anymore in any significant way, except to feed his own ego. You're also under the impression that this is a Trump project, when it's a Republican project in general. For the last 3 or 4 decades, various anti-democratic (small-d) conservatives have been building the infrastructure for a total state take over and they've completed it. Vance was the guy that, low-key, the institutional Republicans wanted in the first place. Not because they control him necessarily, but because his agenda falls in line with theirs. They have been authoritarians. They wanted the increase in the security state. They wanted power concentrated in the executive and to have elections become just a background rubber stamp to give some thin air of legitimacy. All of the shit that Trump is doing right now, the Republicans have been clamoring for since at least Nixon. The lesson they walked away from with Nixon wasn't "Maybe we should play by the rules." It was, "We must change the rules for us." With Vance, we have the government contracting with private tech interests to build out, essentially, a Big Brother state. That is what Palantir is. That's what xAI is gearing up to be. The really far-right techno-fascist wing of the party comes from Vance and his connections. The country, as a sort of semi-democratic republic, has been dead. The question was either: are we reverting back to this neo-mercantilist hypernationalism that was popular in the 1800s and early 1900s (which is Trump's given path), or are we going into a techno-fascist nightmare of patchwork states (which is what Thiel, Musk and, so, Vance wants)?

Asleep-Strike4978

This is called de-escalation through escalation. Example WWI and WWII.

Lortekonto

Boomers lived through the post-WWII and decolonization economy were the entire world wanted to build up their production base. They had plenty of social programs while growing up and entering the job market and when it became their turn to pay for those socialprograms with their taxes, then they voted them away. They had union paying jobs, but refused to unionize, while voting against unions and thus the unions and the well paying jobs disappeared. They are going to be the most wealthy generation in history, because they got the support of the generations before them and refused to pass the same support on.

kugelblitz_100

I hate how Redditors constantly down vote comments like this because they go against their belief that Trump will be "punished" for his crazy tariff policies. I can't stand the guy as much as any liberal Redditor but you all need to stop burying your head in the sand and pretending the U.S. economy is just like every other country. It's not. It's gigantic and has grown by leaps and bounds ahead of every other country ever since WWII. Trump is now wielding that huge power to bludgeon other countries into submission. There might be some negative consequences for the U.S. in the long term but those will probably only become visible long after Trump is gone so what does he care? I honestly don't know what to do about that but I do know acting like Canada and the U.S. are going to suffer equally under tariffs is not productive and makes us (liberals) untrustworthy to everyone else since that almost certainly isn't going to happen.

unurbane

It was never a free market though. It’s always been heavily manipulated. See the auto industry forced to make tanks/planes in WWII, financial crisis of ‘08, the buying of GM to stabilize markets, Solyndra incentives, vaccine rollout and mask production in 2020, purchase of Intel (10%) this week, etc etc.

elpresidentedeljunta

There´s always different approaches. After WWII the americans hired the scientists from the german weapons programs. The soviets secured the technicians who actually build the stuff. Both got their results...

Candid_Highlight_116

It's also possible that COVID just straight up killed too many important people. Largest loss since WWII after all. I bet on both of these.

Astronaut-Proof

This is wallstreetbets. Whenever it shifts to paternostersquarebets we’ll read everything with that dumbass accent, eat beans and toast like WWII POWs, and type regarded shit like *dived* instead of dove. Until then, we will type in American. Thank you for your attention to this matter, crooked-toothed bozo.

DK_Notice

This is the correct answer if you're in Econ 101, but it's not so simple. The Fed has certainly taken steps to affect rates at the long end of the curve, especially over the last 20 years. Look at QE, Operation Twist, and also fed policies that effectively lowered long term rates. Going back further look at the Fed's outright yield curve control and rate capping in the 40s during WWII. [https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2021/2](https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2021/2) So yeah, you're right, but it's not black and white regarding the Fed's ability to control rates.

wdjan

Okay, I see what you're getting at, but your original statement is different. The original statement was recovery from the Great Depression, not permanently exceeding value from Great Depression + WWII. Recovery from Great Depression, according to your chart, occurred around 8 or 9 years after 1929. The following drop was WWII. Further, this is not representative of how people actually invest. It is as likely to dump everything in at the peak as it is to dump everything in at the bottom of a trough - nobody does this. Basically any deviation from investing everything you have at the absolute peak in 1929 will result in a shorter recovery period and/or higher returns through to 1949. People invest at different times as money becomes available. Finally, looking at this from a glass half full perspective: Great Depression + WWII were 2 of the most detrimental events of the 20th century and happened essentially back-to-back. Markets were surprisingly resilient through this period given the global turmoil.

DrElkSnout

And saving the auto manufacturers was about securing the means of production in case of war. They don't give two shits about cars, but they need to move equipment around with medium and heavy duty trucks and build tanks, engines and other things if the SHTF. Look at what happened during WWII. A production plant can be re-tooled fairly quickly, and for years those plants can produce items for the military in the event of a world war. Same thing is happening now with chips, data centers and such. This is an arms race, and has the full backing of the US MIC. Some companies will lose. But many will win and they'll win BIG.

EventHorizonbyGA

I want to be clear. I like Buffett. I just don't think people understand who Buffett is. IMO he is the human equivalent of Smaug. He is a Dickens character. People look at Buffett and overlay their expectations of what a person with all that wealth would be. But, in reality Buffett has likely worked 12 hours a day for 6 days a week since he was 14. And people don't realize this. You spend your entire life not spending/wasting money in an obsessive capacity and you'd be rich too. If you did this starting out a rich kid right at the end of WWII you'd be a billionaire as well. He is a miser. Though a friendly one but a miser none-the-less. Oglethorpe, Mercer, Carnie, Melon Nobel all did good with their money. Buffett has never invested in a company working for a cure of disease. He has has claimed the tax policy in the US broken and yet is the largest holder of US Treasuries. A product that is like a vampire on our children's futures. Buffett's ideal, perfect company is selling water to people in the desert. He wants products that people can not live without (literally in the case of dialysis) or that are legally enforced upon us or subsidized from our tax revenues. Like insurance. Like GEICO. The "government" insurance company. Buffett has ridden the greatest wealth creation market in history. He entered it right after WWII and just never got off. His returns are not spectacular. When you consider he didn't buy Apple when the iPod came out. He didn't buy Nike in the 80s. He completely missed bitcoin. All of the real innovation he completely couldn't see. The reason people follow Buffett boggles the mind. Bezos is a much better person to follow. He is actually doing what you would do if you ever had money. Living.

Phenom08

I know someone mentioned this stock recently as a good buy and it was, props to that degenerate. I just hate UNH. I love tendies but at what cost? It’s like buying Porsche or Mitsubishi just before the start of WWII. I love making money but UNH profits off death. Edit, I have UNH as my primary insurance and I don’t want to die, gonna pick up a few shares.

Aumin85

While having a stake in companies hasn't been that common in the US, it has happened many times over. WWI and WWII (RFC), 1979 Chrysler Bailout, 08 Financial Crisis (TARP), COVID pandemic. Additionally, subsidies are quite common in the US, which is a similar way of providing capital and influence over business decisions. Bear in mind, it is now vital that we compete with China, who does this kind of thing all the time.

hak8or

A zero effort post like yours will result in a zero effort copy paste from me, meant to ensure others aren't misled by your post; The statement is largely inaccurate. It contains elements of truth but misrepresents the timeline and the specifics of the U.S. tax system's evolution. Here is a detailed breakdown of the claims: Claim 1: "Pre-IRS, the rich paid no taxes." This is false. * The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was established as the Bureau of Internal Revenue in 1862 by President Abraham Lincoln to collect the nation's first income tax, which was created to fund the Civil War. This tax was later repealed and ruled unconstitutional. * The permanent, modern federal income tax was established with the ratification of the 16^{th} Amendment in 1913. This is the date most people associate with the beginning of our current income tax system. * Before 1913, the primary sources of revenue for the federal government were tariffs (taxes on imported goods) and excise taxes (taxes on the sale of specific domestic goods like tobacco and alcohol). * The wealthy absolutely paid these taxes. When they purchased imported luxury goods or domestic products subject to excise tax, they paid the tax embedded in the price. However, this system was regressive, meaning it took a larger percentage of income from lower-income individuals than from the wealthy. Still, it is incorrect to say the rich paid "no taxes." Claim 2: "The poors paid high prices." This is the most accurate part of the statement, though it lacks context. * Because the pre-1913 federal government relied heavily on tariffs and excise taxes, the tax burden was disproportionately carried by the working class and poor. * Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, and also allow domestic producers to raise their prices. This means the cost of many everyday necessities was higher for everyone. For a low-income family, this increase in the cost of living consumed a much larger portion of their budget than it did for a wealthy family. * Excise taxes on common goods like sugar, tobacco, and liquor also functioned as a regressive tax, paid at the point of sale by the consumer. * So, while it wasn't a direct tax on their income, the poor and working class effectively paid a significant portion of federal taxes through these higher prices. Claim 3: "Then WWII came, and it turned out the country needed more income." This is chronologically incorrect and misleading. * The event that directly led to the creation of the permanent federal income tax was not World War II. The 16^{th} Amendment was ratified in 1913, a year before World War I began and more than 25 years before the start of World War II. * Initially, the income tax of 1913 applied only to a tiny fraction of the wealthiest Americans. In 1913, less than 1% of the population paid federal income tax. * World War II (1939-1945) was the catalyst that transformed the income tax from a "class tax" (paid only by the rich) into a "mass tax" (paid by the majority of citizens). * To fund the immense cost of the war, Congress passed the Revenue Act of 1942, which dramatically lowered exemptions and raised tax rates. This meant millions of middle- and lower-income Americans had to pay federal income tax for the very first time. * The number of tax returns filed jumped from about 8 million in 1939 to over 50 million by 1945. It was also during WWII, in 1943, that the government introduced payroll withholding to make collecting this new, broad-based tax manageable. Summary * Before 1913: The U.S. government was funded mainly by regressive tariffs and excise taxes. The rich paid these taxes, but the poor bore a disproportionately heavy burden through higher prices on goods. * 1913: The 16^{th} Amendment established a permanent federal income tax, but it initially only affected the wealthiest Americans. * World War II: The need to fund the war effort caused the government to expand the income tax to cover the majority of the population, creating the broad-based system we are familiar with today.

big-papito

Pre-IRS, this is how it worked. The rich paid no taxes, the poors paid high prices. Then WWII came, and it turned out the country needed more income.

eatinpinktacos

Inflation matched last year almost exactly and Wall Street was thrilled because we have tariffs getting close to the level in 1930s...it's how Japan and Germany rebuilt after WWII and still do business...Protectionism is how you protect and or grow domestic jobs in any country...Part of any cost that rise are as fair a tax as it gets which rich to poor pay ...We had trade Imbalances before WWII but then we blew up the competition (Germany and Japan) and the UK was partially destroyed...Our middle class then juggernauted ahead like never before until 1970s...

im_a_squishy_ai

> I'm waiting for something that changes the game with AI. Like a real breakthrough. A disease cured. A self driving car and robot would also work. You should really go read the papers that explain the math behind how these models work. If you're waiting for things like what you listed you're going to be waiting a very long time. How would a statistical model that generates the most likely outcome based on supplied training data ever come up with something completely new? How would it ever reproduce something that it hasn't already seen? What in the mathematics would give any indication that it *could* even theoretically, with all the data we have in the world, generate something that is outside it's training data? Nothing. The math isn't there. These aren't "AIs", they're Large Language Models. That's it. It's a very fancy version of what Alan Turing and Blechly Park used during WWII as part of their toolset to break the enigma code - language frequency analysis. The difference is our computers are orders of magnitude faster and we have orders of magnitude more data to put into them, so we get more realistic responses. But what you're asking is the modern equivalent of "could the enigma code breaker create a new language?", and the answer is no, because it only works on the highest probability of what it's given in the training set.

Oregonmushroomhunt

From Ukraine’s side, this isn’t just about tariffs — it’s about survival. Every barrel of Russian oil sold, no matter who buys it, pumps cash straight into the Kremlin’s war chest. That money turns into artillery shells, missiles, and Iranian drones that level apartment blocks and kill civilians. When India calls the U.S. response “unfair trade measures” and threatens WTO retaliation, it reads here as ignoring the fact that this war isn’t a trade dispute — it’s the largest invasion in Europe since WWII. The sanctions aren’t random; they’re part of an international effort (led by countries actually sending billions in aid to Ukraine) to force Russia to the negotiating table by cutting its revenue. If major economies keep buying Russian oil, it undercuts that entire strategy and prolongs the war. From Kyiv’s view, arguing over steel and aluminium while still feeding Moscow’s budget isn’t just bad optics — it’s choosing short-term economic gain over ending a war that’s destroying a nation.

iom2222

Yeah you guys are collaterals but you are in the minority now. You represent the old America. The one that was. But it’s all gone now. It’s all corrupted. And I can tell you for a fact and for sure that Canadians tourists are not coming back in US. Even post Trump. This is over for good, you need to understand how profound the shift was. And there is not forgiving or forgetting. Americans totally under estimate how profound this shift is. Canada will probably get closer or Europe or others Asia allies. It’s going to take a generation to forget. This is how serious the damage by Trump is, it cannot be understated. And what I keep saying is that Europe is 2 months being Canada I. Boycotting American services and goods (Netflix, Amazon…. Disney). Consider them already bankrupted. They will be boycotted world wide. Trump killed the American tribe. You are going to a level pre WWII. All that liberation credit…. Burnt in 6 months by just 1 man that still has legal trouble and legacy. The friendship and the links with former Allies had been severed. In a few years you will understand how deep the division is. You cannot imagine it now. The damages done by Trump are enormous and irreversible. The sonner tou can assimilate that the better for what follows. America is just living from leftovers today !!! https://youtu.be/NdnwXeSSAII

creedx12k

"Mein Kampf Cankles" has it completely wrong. His Tariffs and jacked up economy WILL cause the next "Great Depression." Historically every time massive tariffs (taxes paid by we the people) are imposed, a recession hits followed by a depression. Severe economic downturn caused by strict tariffs and the stock market crashing. This is exactly how the Great Depression hit prior to WWII. We're on that same road.

Strange-Scarcity

He didn’t learn about tariffs. He also seems to think that the US is the center of Global trade like we were from the end of WWII until the 1960’s. We’re somewhere around 9% of global trade now. We don’t control that anymore. His policies have weakened the US more than anything else could have done and now we may be cut loose from global trade and it could take decades to re-establish a good position.

Richvideo

They forget that after WWII, the rest of the world was in a state of disarray, so we had no competition, and we had to produce goods for the rest of the world...That only lasted a few decades.

BrianScienziato

Um... Really? \~80 million people died in WWII. That's a lot of people who couldn't avoid it...

DJHumanRights

I'm not Jewish or Israeli. But I have read the prophecies and the old testament so I know for a fact this will be a big war, just like WWI and WWII. Type Amalek Putin in google and you will see what the media in Israel are saying about Putin. Basically he's a Nazi, but the world knows this already because the ICC is after him. So it is relevant to investing today, highly relevant because the wars are growing and the defence share prices are growing too.

Mountain_Sand3135

oops ....i guess America is losing this 3d chess game. Keep telling you MAGA , this is NOT POST WWII this is a modern global economy and we better wake up to that.

x_realtnt_x

This is just wrong. There is no shift towards weapons. At least not more than anyone else since the US betrayed all their allies. Comparing this to the developments before WWII is just nonesense…

Short-Taro-5156

In 1950s post WWII the average home size was 983sqft. It was a bit higher before the war (approaching 1200sqft) and then continued to balloon after the post-war housing boom. Easily google-able, search "average home size 1950." And this completely discounts the fact that the average square footage PER PERSON in a household has ballooned even more. The average household size in 1950 was a bit over 4 people, prior to that you had families of 6 or more living in ~1000sqft or less homes. People could easily afford to take care of a family, but we expect such a high quality of life and every modern amenity that it's unfeasible. Most people aren't willing to live as a family of 4 in a 1000sqft home because that's no longer culturally the norm as it was in decades past. You weren't expected to buy tons of toys at christmas and spends tons on toys, presents, baby food, tons of new clothes & baby shoes, diapers, high levels of medical care for the child. People went with less and accepted more risk. Nobody is willing to do that nowadays and honestly, it's culturally frowned upon. The narrative of the low birth rates is that it's economic in nature but that has no basis in reality. Perhaps it's economic in the sense that people can afford to have children but culture & expectations prevent them from doing so. This is global and not limited to the US, and has little to do with economics in my opinion. I understand people feel it's economic in nature but I don't think that fits the reality of our economic situation vs the past where people had plenty of children.

Facktat

I know the severity of this shit show makes it not funny anymore but I still remember the amount of Muslims or people with roots in the middle east calling "genocide Joe" and backing Trump. Didn't work out that great for them, didn't it? Kind of remembers me of the *Verband nationaldeutscher Juden*, the german organization of Jews supporting Adolf Hitler before WWII. They opposed Marxism and supported the idea of an "moral rebirth of the German people". They thought the regime would distinguish between "loyal" and "disloyal" Jews. The history is rarely gentle to the groups supporting fascism. American muslims already found out and American rednecks are heading towards finding out.

Yiplzuse

LOL, some people, they would have argued against bombing ball bearing plants in WWII. Ball bearings are no threat! It’s the tanks and planes! /s. I got laid off in March, aerospace. We went three months with less and less work. Company is gonna tank most likely. Looks like Lockheed Martin scrapped or seriously delayed their space hotel.

elziion

At least you stopped calling us Westerners entitled and ignorant. It’s actually a shame that most people overseas perceive us this way out of context. I grew up having to start working really young, but the decision steeming from capitalism has nothing to do with me and i’m tired of being told we are all “evil colonizers”. This blame game is not helping anyone, you’re right. I can guarantee, most of us have nothing to do with the decisions made by previous colonizers. Most of our families and the generations that followed worked hard to build our countries. It’s quite common that many of us come from farmers and our grandparents fought for us to have a decent school system under the promise and guise for a better future. Blaming us for the damages done during colonization when most of the people a hundred years ago were busy rebuilding after WWII is unfair. Especially when Britain spent 60 years repaying the US and Canada for its help afterwards, whilst they were slowly rebuilding. Japan was completely obliterated after the US dropped bombs on them, and is now one of the most successful countries. They closed their doors in order to rebuild. Didn’t blame us for their problems and now they are one of the biggest economies in the world. China suffered massively during the 20th century, yet they somehow managed to pull themselves back. Everyone was broke after WWII, and blaming us for all your problems helps no one. I’m sorry, but having been called all sorts of names because i’m white and people associate me with their problems, when I wasn’t even bord, and being told I can’t say anything, is unnerving. The West used to have a lot of factories and was able to produce high end quality products, and that was something that powered the Industrial era. Everyone was able to work, now many of those jobs are offshored at lower prices. It’s a fact that it doesn’t help our economic system in the long term to do so. Offshoring our companies didn’t help us, I blame greedy corporations and politicians that enacted those policies against our consent. And policies can be reversed, and if politicians don’t do anything to help their people, it’s obviously not going to go well. The US forcing companies to bring jobs within their country is what I was saying earlier: Trump putting his country first and it’s what most people in America voted for. And it’s absolutely normal that you would want your country to put itself first when it comes to making business decisions.

AICHEngineer

They dont really teach you that stuff at school, this is just wallstreet leverage jargon. TLDR, only diversified risks are compensated. With leverage, you can take on more risk. It costs the (EFFR + ~0.5%) × 1.1 for every point of leverage, plus the higher expense ratios for the funds. For example, SSO or SPUU (2x SPY) cost like ~5-5.25% per year on leverage costs, plus their expense ratios. Historically they have outperformed unlevered 1x (when simulated back to 1885). Lots of sub periods where they suck, like the great depression, dot com, GFC, etc. Otherwise, they tend to do great like post WWII, depression recovery, the 80s/90s, 2009 onwards

majesticstraits

That tariff literally caused the agricultural depression that was the precursor to the Great Depression, and everyone knows what happened with Smoot Hawley worsening the Great Depression. There’s a reason pretty much every economist is in favor of low tariffs, and the post WWII era of free trade led to unmatched prosperity both in the US and around the globe

awildjabroner

keep in mind Palantir is Peter Theil's company and he just so happens to be one of the individual driving forces to unravel and remake the post WWII social order that has enveloped the entire globe for the past 75ish years. The stock market and capital investment has long since detatched from actual P&L statements and numbers and moreso valuations are based on personalities in key positions and speculation on future 'tech'

rvitanza

I can see a world with third world countries leapfrogging with AI in the next 15 years, where advanced nations circle back to conservative isolationism seen pre WWII. A new wave of social constructs and class systems and extreme global division between the a now extremely degenerative liberal mindset open to come what may and a conservative one (which would be equivalent to the pre 2010 liberal one). Unsure about the commercial/capitalist outlook but hard to imagine “big” companies failing as they will adopt and absorb new trends. Up: Ai, energy, defense, software, hardware (materials with moats/mining not factories) fintech. This pov may be beside the point but I’m wondering if you foresee similar or completely distinct social shifts?

Stock_Two5985

The sad reality is we are in need of it to eradicate communism and maintain our global dominance. America has been in a steady decline the last 80 years. The end of WWII was our peak as a country and we’ve been losing our global dominance ever since about the 80’s or 90’s

SoFlo1

We have the smallest herd size in modern history, highest beef prices since WWII and the highest feed prices ever - all of which has driven beef prices to record highs - and these idiots want to export out of the US? Insane.

Ps11889

I seem to recall after WWII, that Japan purchased a lot of US goods. As such, this is not the first time they've had open markets. Just saying.

fuckingsignupprompt

You really have to look into the details. What exactly does the US import from Indonesia, and what exactly does it export? Are there alternative countries that the business can move? Does the tariff make enough of a difference to achieve the intended goal? For example, the US has no domestic palm oil agriculture to protect. So, tariff does nothing except increase prices. If that increase is significant enough, the US will increase imports from Malaysia and decrease imports from Indonesia. So, that hurts Indonesia without benefitting the US, the winners are Malaysia and other minor Palm oil producers. Is the intention to start up palm farming in the US? If no, then the US lost a major potential ally in China's neighborhood for no reason at all. Do that for all major trade commodities between the two countries to get close to figuring out whether it is an overall benefit. If Indonesia does all the things it has promised it will do on the import side, it does appear favorable to the US on the whole. You also have to consider the long-term costs. Being bullied by Trump will make countries look for alternatives to the US, seek trade relations excluding the US, look favorably to US alternatives like China or BRICS, as well as making them likely to cancel all these deals as soon as Trump is out of office in '28. Post-WWII US-led order was based on the idea that tariff-free trade would benefit the whole world, especially the US. In fact, it would benefit the US so much that it could still turn a profit after spending on maintaining a military that could patrol all of world's oceans, fight wars on multiple fronts, lead coups in multiple continents, buy out friends and enemies alike with billions of dollars in annual "aid". Now, we've entered a new phase where Trump, and by extension majority of the US public, believe that that old order isn't benefitting the US anymore. In my opinion, Trump/US has correctly identified that there's a problem, I'm not sure they've identified what the actual problem is, and my bet is they're definitely wrong on what the solution should be, assuming there is even a solution. There are benefits to targetted tariffs. What the US is doing isn't that.

AlexanderDifficult

And that was in large part thanks to WWII and postwar boom

ShotPhase2766

Sorry could someone please explain to me was Japan not open to trade before? I’ve been driving a Mitsubishi for the past 10 years, where did it come from? Where did my neighbor’s kei truck come from for that matter? Where do all the other Japanese products I use and consume come from if not Japan? Does that not mean Japan is as open to trade with us as they have been since we first historically forced them to start trading with us and even more so since the end of WWII so what could “open their country to trade” mean in this context?

SirWethington

Basically, Japan just bought more Treasury Bonds to lend the US more cash and he's taking credit for using the BoJ as a piggy bank as have all US presidents since post-WWII

Minute-Fix-6827

Eh, I've heard folks say the same about why American cars don't sell well in the E.U. - I think it pertains to how those post-WWII cities are designed and the width of the streets. Never been to either place, but the IASIP gang certainly looked ridiculous driving their American SUV in Ireland. Pretty sure they filmed on location.