WWII
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Boeing Safety Crisis part 2 - why I give a damn and you should too
Why the economy won't crash, there will be no landing, it will only go higher
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 18th, 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 18th, 2023
Market this year behaves in line with the long term average since WWII
How is Babyboomers entering retirement/dieing and Millennial/Gen Z birthrates declining not a recipe for disaster for the market?
The economy is bad - but so was 2020 - how did the stock market perform so well then?
Some interesting quotes from Michael Hartnett's latest note.
Investing discussion on a US-China war: which US companies will be the winners and losers, and which will just pull through?
Be Wary: SP500 Returns Depend on Timeframe, and Most Data Start at 1928
How the Federal Reserve can Crash the Global Market at Any Time.
Latest Zoltan Pozsar from CS - "War and Commodity Encumbrance" - Deep Dive Into Geopolitical Risk, Global Currency Networks and Commodity Markets
The Price of Time The Real Story of Interest by Edward Chancellor Part 3 of 3
The Price of Time The Story of Interest by Chancellor part 1-2 of 3.
Hedge fund Elliott warns of more pain to come after 2022 market rout
Hedge fund Elliott warns of more pain to come after 2022 market rout
The world is on the road to “hyperinflation” and could be heading towards its worst financial crisis since the second world war, according to Elliott Management, one of the world’s most influential hedge funds.
How did the stock market do so well in 2020 when it was the worst year for economic growth since WWII?
If shit WOULD REALLY hit the fan cause of big P, what would happen to the different sectors? Crypt0? National banks? Foodstock? Oil? Gold/Silver? Indexes? Life insurance companies? Weapon companies? Chemical companies?
Are we really reading books that biased towards the US market and the current (long-term) credit cycle?
Jeremy Siegel: "I think we're gonna have the second-biggest housing price decline since post WWII period over the next 12 months." Agree?
Jeremy Siegel: "I think we're gonna have the second-biggest housing price decline since post WWII period over the next 12 months." Here's how bad Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman and 5 others think it could get (via Business Insider). Who do you agree with? Where do you see prices heading?
October is frequently a "bear-market killer," known for its historically high returns, especially in years with midterm elections.
October is frequently a "bear-market killer," known for its historically high returns, especially in years with midterm elections.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Fed - a Bearporn Saga
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 29th, 2022
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 29th, 2022
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 22nd, 2022
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 22nd, 2022
How to make money of a political crisis over Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Non-Chinese rare earth metal producers Lynas Corporation and MP Materials smell like a way to me.
“Our metrics we use to evaluate the economy are tried and true. They have served us since pre WWII”
Learning from the Past: Money Supply and Inflation Fluctuations
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 9th, 2022
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 9th, 2022
XBI DD INSIDE - Short Squeeze/Gamma Squeeze an entire ETF HUGE melt-up coming
Biggest Rally in the Post-WWII Era Coming
Investment Strategy Group within the Consumer and Wealth Management Division of Goldman Sachs
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 4th, 2022
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 4th, 2022
Anybody else feeling suspicious of the last week’s pump ?
Judgment day tomorrow with Powell speaking.. What are your predictions for tomorrow?
Wow, there is a major War in Europe...what does it mean for my portfolio? Well...
Wow, there is a major War in Europe...what does it mean for my portfolio? Well...
Wow, there is a major War in Europe...what does it mean for my portfolio? Well...
Putin's 7D chess play going according to plan
From the start of WWII in 1939 until it ended in late 1945, the Dow was up a total of 50%, more than 7% per year. So, during two of the worst wars in modern history, the U.S. stock market was up a combined 115%.
1999 Repeal of Glass-Steagall was the worst deregulation ever enacted in US history. Creating Too-Big-To-Fail which caused 2008 Financial Crisis & Arguably The Unprecedented Jan 2021 (PCO or Cascading Bank Failure)
Investment Strategy Group (ISG), Goldman Sachs' asset allocation professionals
Outrages predictions 2022 US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
Outrages predictions 2022 US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
Mentions
As an American, I don't want any of this shit to happen. But if you think we don't deserve to be pointed and laughed at by the rest of the world, you're part of our problem. America has done a lot of fucked up shit to a lot of the world. We've enjoyed privilege since WWII not seen since colonial Britain. And instead of using that power and privilege to make the world a better place, we chose to feed the war machine in the name of fighting communism, toppling democratic regimes and adding our names to a long list of white supremacist countries who fucked up Africa and Central/South America. When the red boogyman was gone, we created more and fed the war machine to fight "islamic terrorism." Was it all bad? No. Because despite all of that, many people throughout the world envied our privilege, wealth, and culture. People flocked here from all over the world and made us stronger, more intelligent, more innovative than many other countries. And look what we did with it. We fucking squandered it. We came to believe that we deserved our place in the world purely by birthright. A motivated minority of us came to believe that we didn't need diversity. That diversity, our greatest strength, was actually the greatest threat to our power and prosperity. This motivated minority only truly represented the interests of the wealthy but convinced a bunch of working class poors that they were also in line to enter club, but these black, brown, and foreign people were trying to cut in line. And it was all a fucking lie. And those of us who didn't even want to be in that line, who never wanted to be in some exclusive club at the top, who wanted to see a more robust public sector that provides more free services and infrastructure for everyone, we elected leaders and spokes people who were actually in league with those in the club. None of us are innocent. Only our kids. And it fucking sucks but they'll just have to deal with some hardship. We're all going to have to. And tell me, who the fuck is going to feel any sorrow for us? If anything, they're going to laugh at all that 2nd amendment talk amounting to jack shit. We deserve this. We created this. And if it's to be stopped, were going to have to do a hell of a lot more than get out the vote or protest or even riot. Organized resistance (in minecraft) is the only thing that stands a chance of correcting the ship. Unfortunately we've already hit the fucking iceberg.
WWII is a scary parallel to draw to compare this scenario to. People that have studied FDR's history, realizes Trump is trying to mimic his legacy. Most people forget that FDR broke almost every single campaign promise, attacked and destroyed big business, and crashed the economy. FDR got credited with the "new deal" helping to resolve the great depression, when in reality it was WWII that got enough people killed to make the economy look better.
I went to cash -- belatedly. I feel like an idiot for staying in 15% buffer-EFTs until last week instead of making the move November 5th. I don't know the future (or claim to know it) but it does seem uncertain in a unique way -- the possible end of NATO, the Ukraine, the dollar as a reserve currency, the whole post-WWII world order. The usual pieties about the market always coming back seems distinctly out of date, and, anyway, I am not a youth who has decades to wait and see. So I'm in CDs, with about a third in Swiss Franc ETF, foreign bonds iGOV and BWX, Yen (FXY)
I know you’re being sarcastic - but we actually used to during WWII and The Great Depression. Many Americans, not all, but many, are different now. We’ve fallen victim to Capitalism. It was by design. The Titans of Industry are the ones that have and continue to make out the best. They designed it. Bought the Politicians, the Police, changed the laws in their favor, and here we are.
I’m not privy to the information I would need to assess Russia’s true capability against Ukraine. It’s kind of like when people say the US lost in Vietnam but frame it as though we could never have won. Of course we could have won; we could have glassed Vietnam, killed indiscriminately with non nuclear bombs, or just kept fighting. We left because people got sick of American kids getting gunned down in a senseless war. There’s a difference between that and “losing” like the Germans lost WWII. Idk how all in Russia did or didn’t go in Ukraine and also Ukraine got massive military support from the US in terms of munitions, vehicles, logistics etc. that without they would have likely folded quickly. Point in case, US hegemony in action in Ukraine. Which brings me to my second point. Yes all wars are different, and obviously things have changed. But Europe got utterly raped by Germany, a little country just coming out of rebuilding after their loss in WWI. They even took a great deal of Russia (Hitler’s fatal mistake). My point is, if a tiny country like Germany could destroy Europe and half of Russia, and was only ultimately stopped by the US and their failure in Russia, I don’t think it’s entirely implausible that a country as big as Russia would pose a serious threat to Europe. We are, objectively, the big brother that Europe and SEA depends on. Everyone (including the world’s leader) knows this. Well everyone except redditors that love to shit on America and downvoted my first comment.
I'm a Canadian old lady. The American Grampa Dipshit blew it, big time. We're talking nuke. We've dealt with the big ego of American exceptionalism, for a long time, but y'all crossed a line, and Canadians' "line" is sacred. I was curious as to whether or not it is true that Canadians are responsible for parts of the Geneva Convention. And ... technically ... No. Not specifically. BUT ... During WWI WWII, if an adversary played dirty, we played dirty back, we did it WAY better ... and we didn't actually "get caught" in terms of "crimes against humanity" charges because we're really smart when we're pissed off.
I don't even see people of today doing that, even for a war effort like WWII. I think it would still be me, me, me instead of focusing on what the country needs.
Also: The retaliatory tarrifs every other nation has put on America imports make it an uphill battle for American companies to sell abroad. This is what Trump/Navarro don't get - the post WWII boom in America (that want to reproduce) was because the world was desperate for American products. Now the world is actively rejecting them thanks to Trump.
>China sides with the Global South-developing nations of Asia and Africa-and insists their voices be heard. None of the exploitation China is doing in the Global South is for altruistic reasons, as the OP implies. [https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-do-we-know-about-the-chinese-land-grab-in-africa/](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-do-we-know-about-the-chinese-land-grab-in-africa/) [https://www.newsweek.com/china-losing-africa-india-opinion-2046105](https://www.newsweek.com/china-losing-africa-india-opinion-2046105) [https://www.eiir.eu/international-relations/international-relations-studies/chinas-exploitation-of-africa-the-case-of-the-democratic-republic-of-congo/](https://www.eiir.eu/international-relations/international-relations-studies/chinas-exploitation-of-africa-the-case-of-the-democratic-republic-of-congo/) [https://thesciencesurvey.com/editorial/2023/07/21/neocolonialism-the-remnants-of-foreign-exploitation-in-africa/](https://thesciencesurvey.com/editorial/2023/07/21/neocolonialism-the-remnants-of-foreign-exploitation-in-africa/) >a U.S. alircraft carrier was disabled for months by a Houthi missile off the coast of Yemen." There is zero evidence that any U.S. warship, much less an aircraft carrier, has been damaged by Houthi action. The Houthis have yet to provide any photographic evidence of this, and all their statements have been careful to only say that they've "targeted" U.S. vessels, without actually claiming to have struck them. The most the Houthis can claim is indirectly causing a U.S. destroyer to inadvertently shoot down an F/A-18 while that destroyer was also shooting down Houthi missiles. >For the first time in 500 years, a non-Western power is openly pushing back. This sentence is just flat out wrong. The OP seems to forget that WWII happened.
I’m like LOL at all the people arguing about military conflict with China. That is not a scenario anyone wants. I don’t even know if the US population would support a war. I was talking with a friend who went through the rationing before WWII and then served on a ship in the pacific. I don’t know if anyone today is ready for the hardship involved.
There is a DIFFERENT thing going on here, though. There is a risk to the dollar. We have $36 trillion in debt, and foreign governments are dumping bonds. The trend has been that more international transactions are done in currencies other than the dollar. There is risk to the economy caused by the drag that an additional tax (import duty, or tariff) is going to cause. If we get to a point in the negotiations where other countries start to impose reciprocal tariffs on services, which is where US software multinationals are vulnerable, we have another problem. This is not new. Look at the price of gold and gold miners, and the recent drop in the dollar versus other currencies. What is new is that we just insulted and threatened literally every country on earth, but not Russia for some reason? Our biggest trading partners are backing away from us, in a hurry. We are already in a recession. This isn't dire yet, but the trends are moving in the wrong direction. This COULD turn into a black swan event. There is a LOT of leverage in the US market. My point is that there are some risks here that we haven't seen since before WWII. Some of the stuff that is going on here hasn't happened in our lifetimes.
\> America was not stronger at the end of WWII than America was before WWII Behold Los Alamos National Lab
Stronger and Weaker are subjective. America was not stronger at the end of WWII than America was before WWII, however America was stronger than than any other nation on on the planet. China will suffer from this trade war, however there is no way in hell that they will suffer worse than America, because America just burnt every bridge, with every ally, and at minimum 49% of voting Americans hate what our government has become. And while China did just loose their biggest export market, they are now in the position to make new trade deals with everyone who just got fucked over by Trump.
Yeah, there was so much manufacturing in middle America as a direct result of government policy. We shifted it all away from our vulnerable coasts in the run up and during WWII. No one wants to build a manufacturing plant far away from any shipping lanes. Without government incentives (like the chips act for Arizona), shits just gonna keep building up on the coasts, and middle America is going to continue to fuck us with their two senators per 1000 cows or however it gets measured there
They have some obsessive nostalgia with some version of the 1950s United States post WWII. They want us to live in some leave it to beaver episode or the black and white version of Pleasantville before they went "woke"
Short answer is yes. We have a poor education system and a terrible legacy of racism and sexism. And 30% of eligible voters including many young people don’t vote. We are not a serious country any more and we have forgotten the lessons of WWII. We are entering a decadent phase and appear to be in serious decline while China is clearly rising. The Chinese call Trump “Comrade Trump” because he is doing so many things to help China’s rise.
>The damage this Administration has caused will take months to years to be fully realize Seems optimistic. This is the biggest shift in global trade since WWII because this admin shedding all semblance of US credibility as a trading partner and as a currency. Even if a Dem is elected in 2028, the world won't forget that half of the US voting public was totally fine with an authoritarian despot who tossed 75 years of order into the fucking trash.
The only real "inflection point in the world order" there was WWII, which shifted the world from a European centre into bi-polar USA/USSR division, with ultimately complete dominance by the USA. The rest were just dips and bumps along the same road. The next major shift will happen when the USA loses its hegemony. There's a very real chance that this is happening right now, but it also might not go that way.
To think the Chinese in today’s world are adapted and willing to accept the pain of no jobs, of which they have built an entire manufacturing economy around for the past 50+ years is ridiculous. Now I’m not saying the leaders may say it is worth throwing these people into abject poverty for pride. But to suggest these are somehow super citizens willing to lose everything they have built as a society in the new world is crazy. Believe it or not they are people and not the people of pre-WWII. China is not smart. They are stubborn under XI and that will be their downfall. Best come to the table sooner rather than later.
This is retarded. There is an argument to reshore critical-to-defense industries. Which can be done with something like the CHIPS act. Which is narrowly targeted to a particular industry This tariffs-have-never-been-this-high-in-American-history is not narrowly targeted. It’s the exact opposite of narrowly targeted China was busy collapsing under its own weight before all this. Between its real estate meltdown, absolutely fucked demographics from the one child policy, and its own manufacturing decline made China containable. Manufacturing was leaving China for cheaper labor in poorer countries. Just like what happened in America. Because your citizens having things good enough that the shitty harsh labor jobs go elsewhere is actually a good thing. America put itself first in a world order it built by being the greatest Victor of WWII. A politician with 6 bankruptcies blew it all up because he’s an idiot. It’s not about cheap baubles. If 🥭 keeps the tariffs he announced on ‘Liberation Day’ the stock market will halve in value absolutely fucking retirement accounts and causing mass layoffs
I suggest you read it yourself. The handover included a 50 year period of HK being self governed as part of China. This was forcibly ended in 2020, despite the majority of the HK population opposing this and millions protesting. These are not new events. The US does not recognize the "one-China policy" - this is well known so I think you have not actually researched this. The US maintains a position of "strategic ambiguity". The one-china policy also just means that the CCP and PRC recognize that they are both claiming to be the same country. De facto, pretty much everyone in the world recognize them as being separate sovereign states and that it would be an act of aggression for either to conquer the other. If there is peaceful 'reunification', that is fine. Tibet is the largest territory that has been militarily conquered since WWII. There are many other neighbors that have had their territory violated. The islands in Champa sea most notably. These are examples of engaging in imperialism.
Are you seriously trying to claim that Tibet was not conquered by China? The modern Chinese state did not have any historical borders of note but even if it did, that definitely does not justify violating sovereign territory. Seriously? Are you trying to use the same justification also for Russia's activities? The other points are highly subjective and often rather dubious political takes and not relevant to the point. I do not appreciate people mistaking what they want to be true for what is true and factual. You are just positing some laundry list of debatable grievances and that is all rationalization. It also quite telling when you even want to include things that were frankly good for the world. Like the US involvement in WWII - seriously? Out of all the actors that were involved, I think that is one of the few cases where the US was one of the few that did get things going in the good direction for the future. More critically, even if all the critique was valid, it does not provide any information about what state is or is not engaged in imperialism. You are engaging in irrational whataboutism - trying to argue that one state is bad does not mean that another is not also bad.
The US has been the de facto global center of trade since WWII. That going out the window is about to be something no living American has ever seen.
Of course they are. And they are skilled at propaganda. Trump is giving them an unprecedented opportunity to expand their sphere of influence and they are capitalizing on it extremely successfully. It’s so sad to see everything the US built since WWII falling to pieces. In Carney’s speech last night he said “We are over the shock of the American betrayal.” That’s what America is now - a faithless traitor to our Allies. It’s really hard to accept.
NATO is a bit more than a bureaucracy, it’s a security agreement that’s kept dictators like Putin from running rampant for 75 years, and also was a major reason the USD remained the currency of choice during that period (there’s that pesky link between security and trade again). Anyway, advocating returning to the type of individual ad-hoc security agreements that existed before NATO/WWII sounds like something someone with no knowledge of history would favor, which I guess explains why Trump’s all about it.
"America has been cut deepest with the 50 year post WW2 economic order. They call it the rust belt for a reason." If we're hurting so bad, why has USD been the reserve capital of the world? Why has our GNP been the healthiest? The victim bit doesn't stand up to the hegemony we've enjoyed since WWII.
Correction: Middle-step fascism. The way WWII gets taught is that Hitler rose to power and basically immediately went full fascist. It was a process of manufactured consent and the thin edge of the wedge. It's not stopping here.
Trump in 2020 printed 25% of all dollars printed since WWII and pumped the market to try and get reelected. Biden fixed that.
Back in the day after WWII most Western countries were wrecked. Only the USA was intact and became a manufacturing powerhouse , helping to rebuild Europe through the Marshal plan and prevent the spread of communism. How times have changed.
1945 was WWII ending — economically booming, not panicking.
That bond announcement was a huge deal and if I was in the position to make a move I would have at the time. Mostly infrastructure oriented because Germany not being anti-capitalist yet expensive in operations means long term contracts for local industry would be solid, at least in my view. Build America Bonds helped the US with the 2008 recession and Germany’s forward thinking on that was a major, smart, and reasonable hedge against other global factors. In a way it could be a reverse WWII long term - as US firms in heavy construction are unable to price their contracts, international opportunities could arise for German firms as they have domestic cash flow as a backstop and can work their supply chain to their advantage.
I miss my grandparents. They survived WWII in Poland and nearly starved. I’d put on mukbang videos for them as they watched with disgust.
It's crazy how easily people are fooled on that, isn't it? Even the economic high of the 1950s was built on the back of being the biggest economy in the world being untouched by WWII.
>It's the most asinine thing I've ever seen Electing him in the first place was worse, but re-electing him after his massive incompetence the first time around was truly the most asinine event in post WWII history.
China is a bully and now too is the United States. I doubt Trump knows the really awful history of China being bullied, raped and murdered first by European bullies in the 19th Century and then by Japan in the 20th. They have a DEEP and visceral hatred of that, which is why they will never respond to these types of threast. A wise policy would have been to contain China, while working closely with our allies and other friendly nations in Asia such as Japan, Korean and Vietnam to encourage them to trade more with us and each other and rely less on China. A giant trading block of Europe, the US and Asia could really have neutralized and contained China over the long term. But that's the kind of wise policy Americans were capable of after WWII. Now, we are too divided as a country and too decadent and looking for stupid quick fixes to extremely complex problems that have built up over decades.
Are we just going to ignore the 4 wars that these countries have had in the last 75 years? Outside of the Middle East I can’t think of any place on earth that has had more wars in the post WWII era.
DJT’s current situation and Real Politik reminds me a lot of Drake’s last year; Drake was all High and Mighty cuz he could sleep with any Rap Superstars girl and then sneak diss said Rap Star in a later track… Now Drake thought that this would just go on for forever with no one ever being able to challenge him (and rightfully so considering in 2023 he was named the undisputed highest selling rapper of all time) however what Drake Failed to realize is that he can’t take on EVERYONE AT THE SAME TIME fast forward a year later and you already know the rest. This is the exact same situation that is about to play out for DJT/America at large. America is the undisputed #1 country in the world (holistically) post WWII… HOWEVER this does not mean that America can actually steamroll every other Western nation, ESPECIALLY if the western nations come together for the sole purpose of dunking on it to ‘Teach those Americans a lesson they will never forget’
Lol this is in no way the bottom. Nothing has happened yet due to tarrifs. 🥭 Plan is to use tarrifs to fund tax cuts for under 200k. Aka meaning tariffs will stay & business will face the largest corporate tax rate since WWII. The market has reacted to the news but is yet to reach to what happens when things start to break
China holds all the cards. The ports are FUCKING EMPTY, and XI knows it, Americans about to see empty store shelves for the first time since WWII, people about to panic. Trump has no cards- he’s been _trumped_ The markets have only been reacting to immediate propaganda before now, but the economy is now starting to be seriously affected, things might not crash tomorrow, but the moment panic takes over the American consumer, the market will respond in kind
>how did the UK deal with it's loss of status, power, and influence? The UK lost its power due to WWI and WWII. It's a very different game from the US, where we were on top of the world in January of 2025 and then some fat moron decided to burn it all down because he had to pay too much for a Japanese VCR in 1990.
Well you do, its just that you economy its not based around that, its better to outsource it to a cheaper supplier. I dont know if long term will work or not, during the german recession post WWII, there were many critics against the deregularization and downscale of goverment, that eventually is what made germany thrive again. But short term, it took a while to pick up speed and there was a lot of people against it. Im quoting this example not as a comparison in terms of economic decisions that are being implemented but on the opposition it had and the good results most people didn’t expect.
Go read a book. You sound dumb af. America didn’t become the worlds leading power until after WWII. And that had far more to do with the fact the war took place in Europe, so America was untouched and able to assist the European countries with recovery, which gave them good grace from those countries. At the end of the day America merely *lucked* into being the world’s super power due to Germany starting two separate World Wars on the opposite side of the Earth. Now Trump is single handily ruining all of the good grace America had within his first 6 months, something that had been established for almost a century to this point.
it's going to be catastrophic. absolutely catastrophic. to every industry. and to top it off.....elon is going around cutting tens of thousands of federal jobs.....hundreds of thousands after all is said and done. many of these jobs will be needed in the near future when shit hits the fan...think of the people needed to fast track inspections, processing, approvals etc. elon has guaranteed that none of them will be coming back b/c he required people to sign in the fork offer that they are banned from federal employment for the next 5 years. it's a train wreck of massive proportions. and then you will soon have military fighting with private sector for what material still remains. and that's when China will likely make a move on Taiwan and Russia will launch a motherlode offensive into Ukrain. the US can't both supply and fight in a 2-front war right now....... it's going to be like WWII all over again where private sector won't even have access to basic raw materials anymore (ie like when homes built during war effort weren't able to obtain iron for sewer lines since it was being used for ship building and had to use terracotta or orangeburg molded wood pulp fibered pipes)
This is false. E.g. VW was liberated by the British military at the end of WWII. Right after they stopped killing effing nazis, they were preparing to dismantle the VW factory and send the machines off to the UK as war reparations. But the British military saw the dire state of the local civilians and decided to run the factory instead. They made cars for their own use and provided the locals with a job, livelihood. This act of not repeating the error made in Versailles after WWI and forcing Germany into economical hell was the only right move to make as showing mercy on the civilians is the only way of them not going against you as soon as they can. That action of liberating the factory meant a clean break with any ownership prior to the end of WWII. And you buying today a VW car will not benefit any nazi, not in money, nor in fame. Can't say that for an damned tesla.
The possible end of NATO, the EU, the dollar as reserve currency, Ukraine (and with it the security of Western Europe), and Taiwan, and the possible onset of a global warming tipping point, and Iran maybe getting the bomb. Other than that and bird flu, no worries. Oh, and the 175 year old history of USA wealth based on being the world's largest petroleum producer, may be coming to the end. The fracking people have been BRILLIANT at keeping the run going, but it's in decline, and the depletion curve may be shocking. Seriously, finance guys - with their charts, and confidence the market always comes back -- are more mystics than actual analysts. No one knows how it will all turn out -- but for once it's not crazy to think the post-WWII order with all its preconceptions is seriously at risk. So just hum, and feel tough? Or go to cash, and diversity like mad -- commodities, CDs in dollars, foreign currencies, foreign government treasuries. Nothing is safe, except for what you can control --- your ultimate assets (to the extent AI is not going to replace you) are your skills and health. After the Fall 1929 crash the market came 2/3rds back over the next 6 months... then started a month by month, quarter by quarter decline that was not overcome fully for 25 years with a war in the model. Finance guys warn against panic. My take? Panic is underrated.
Lower taxes, floating the currency all let Chinese citizens consume more material goods. The state instead uses that excess savings for steel plants, infrastructure projects and subsidies to protect domestic makers. That worked well to allow Chinese growth to converge to western levels and follow the same paths of Korea and Japan but now as a middle income country the model needs to shift- Trump or no Trump- other countries aren't going to take a deal where they lose jobs and know how continually. They are going to want real access to that billion man market. (It also assumes state planners can keep picking winners.) The Chinese state is a mercantilist part of the trade system. The US enabled this. No other set of countries will- they don't consume enough either. If any of this piques curiosity, my take is riffing off of Michael Pettis who is a professor at Peking University in Beijing. It's a viewpoint at odds with orthodox economics but in line with Keynes' thoughts and popular thought in general post WWII (Think bancors.) Anyway thanks for engaging. Wishign you the best.
>This year, by all accounts, will not be an average year. There has never been an average year. I know it feels special because we’re living in it but take a look at history. World war I, WWII, segregation, end of segregation, Spanish Flu pandemic, Covid, JFK assassination, dotcom bubble, housing market crash, like.. We’re not even in a bad year in you put it in historical context hahaha History is unpredictable my friend. Don’t try to time the market. Just be in it. 2. 10.80% all-time historical average for S&P500 3. *recession is almost guaranteed* No one, absolutely no one can predict the future. Just VOO and chill. You cannot in any way, shape or form know where the market is going to be 20, 30, 40 years from now. We’re not day-trading. **Time in the market always wins** 4. We’re not gambling. Trying to time the market, like you are, is gambling. Just buy and hold. **Time in the market always wins** 5. Lump sum 2/3 time is better. This is also a mathematical fact. Look it up. 6. Yes you have an excellent mortgage rate but I have no idea why you brought that up hahah congrats? Happy for you! 7. Again, no one can predict the future. And what you just said has been said since the start of covid and honestly like 2012 I think. People have been waiting for the housing market crash for so long is almost pathetic at this point. Again **time in the market always wins** 8. Value swings have always been bonkers, always. Grab any long period of time in history and look at the data. It’s always been a mess. You’re living through it atm so it feels special but again, look at historical data. So no, OP should just buy and chill. He’ll make about 3-4% more than paying off his debt and any win is a win.
its like the last guy who died in WWII
They also ignore any evidence pointing to the market recovering. Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator triggered on Thursday. 18 times since WWII it has happened and every single time the S&P500 has been green at 6 months (average 15%) and 12 months (average 24%) from there. Smart money confidence also went to 90% at the Tariff inspired lows. When smart money has gone above 70% S&P500 has advanced at an annualized rate of 35%. And if those two signs aren’t enough, Corporate insider buying has sharply spiked up to its highest level since late 2023 as of a week ago. Then you have Bessent and others in the admin basically telling CEOs and big firms that relief shall be coming and deals will get made. But Reddit is positive that this time is different and doomsaying a decades long depression. One guy in one of these subs was predicting millions of deaths and widespread famine in America within 10 years and getting tons of upvotes. 😂
Can’t win the argument? Pretend we’re having a different one I guess? I never said or implied that rebuilding Europe wasn’t beneficial to the US. Yes, the United States chose to break with the historical status-quo that literally every other nation in history would have taken, and instead of annexing Europe or leaving them to be brutalized by the Soviets, we gave them their independence, rebuilt them, and protected them. Prior to WWII, the United States already controlled a third of global manufacturing output. We were obviously going to have a mutually beneficial relationship with ANY trading partner. We turned Europe into that partner - AND later took our own economy off the gold standard in order to further boost their growth. And that’s fine. No issues there. I completely agree that it turned out well for us both. However that in no way takes away from the fact that the vast majority of NATO members have not contributed even the agreed upon amount for their own defense. It also in no way changes the fact that Europe would have been prepared to defend themselves today if they had invested more in their own defense. World War II ended 75 years ago. 2006 was 19 years ago. It’s time to do your fair share.
Okay, here's a faster rendition: "At realDonaldTrump: Deal with Russia/Ukraine? Best ever, but NYT badmouth it. Liddle' Peter Baker, biased, says Ukraine get back Crimea, crazy requests, stop killing, worse than WWII. Why not say Obama let Russia steal Crimea? Baker wrote fawning Obama bio, joke! Never criticized Obama Crimea? No, just Trump. Nothing to do with war, gave Ukraine Javelins, Obama gave sheets. Biden's war, loser from day one. Wouldn't happen if I was President. Cleaning up Obama/Biden's mess. Putin shooting civilians, no reason. He tapping me along, needs banking/sanctions, too many dying!" It's still long.
The premise of your question is excellent, unfortunately, many of the responses offer heathy doses of political bias or Trump derangement syndrome. The fact of the matter is that no one really knows other than those close to him and qualified to answer, such as Scott Bessent. I suspect (don’t know) that Trump understands the complexities and negative/positive consequences of tariffs and VAT… however… what we are seeing is a Trumpian approach to upsetting the status quo to quickly get to a more favorable and balanced post-WWII position (doing this before the midterms when he may lose control of congress). My problem with the approach is with it’s speed and broad application which is tantamount to playing Russian roulette with the economy. He can walk some of it back, but confidence and trust is being damaged in the process. That, like toothpaste, can take a long while to put back in the tube. Thankfully, there isn’t another world currency that is even close to being an alternative in probably a decade.
The tired myth that NATO allies have “mooched” off the U.S. since WWII is pure fiction, parroted by people who don’t understand history, alliances, or even basic numbers. NATO’s 2% spending target didn’t exist until 2006. today, over two-thirds of the alliance is hitting or closing in on that goal, with Europe and Canada ramping up defense spending by nearly 20% in just the last year. The idea that the U.S. foots the bill alone is equally laughable: European allies and the EU have matched the U.S. matched dollar for dollar in Ukraine aid, committing over $150 billion + taking in Ukraines’ and providing vast quantities of tanks, artillery, and critical training. Historically, NATO allies bled alongside Americans in WWII, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, and countless missions and they host the very U.S. bases that project American power across the globe. NATO isn’t charity it’s a force multiplier for U.S. influence, and pretending Europe has been dead weight is not just wrong, it’s embarrassingly ignorant. If you’re still clinging to that fantasy in 2025, you’re either willfully uninformed or just desperate for a cheap scapegoat.
Trump's business is licensing his name as a brand. Which is ironically the least masculine way to earn a living. But because of this his only real-world experience with tariffs is when he tried to buy a piano once in the 1980s. Two of his wives were immigrants, Musk is an immigrant, and he is going after immigrants. You shouldn't accuse Trump of thinking. Trump probably doesn't care about how tariffs work. He believes as long as he continues the narrative that everything is fine and that this is good for America people will adjust. And he will be right as long as the consumer in the US stays afloat. People do tend to just accept things. Increasing tariffs is not why the market has corrected. It's the uncertainty about tariffs that has. Corporations don't care about tariffs they can just pass thru those tariffs and if the tariffs persist move production lines to areas where there aren't tariffs. What matters to corporations is certainty and consistency in policy. Coca Cola has had no problem making profits in the depression and during WWII nor during any period since. And from a business perspective, corporations can just hike prices and blame (COVID, supply chain disruption, tariffs.) And when those issues correct and normalize their bottom line will go up because prices rarely go back down. Trump and his advisors live in a headspace that hasn't progressed past the 1960s. They believe manufacturing is the "best" most respectable business model to be in. They don't understand the US is a financial and services economy right now. A bit bold of a statement here, but I don't think any of the men in the Administration are smart enough to understand any business that is not "build widget"->"sell widget" and almost all of them have personal issues with insecurity due to fathers defining masculinity as being someone who plays sports well and can defend themselves without hiding behind 50 lawyers. Elon, Bessent, Lutnik, Trump, Collins, were all the boys last picked at sports and all have moms that told them they are princes. Doug Collins served in the military in the Navy... as a Chaplain. To put it another way, spreadsheets are too complicated and don't earn a sweat so any job around spreadsheets is not a real job for a man. So the Administration is trying to return manually manufacturing jobs to the US not realizing this isn't 1960 still and that can't be done without collapsing incomes. To quote NPR, "Trump thinks little and studies not at all." Musk just says "it's easy" and then walks out of the room to play video games. He thinks writing software is "engineering." It's not. These aren't serious people. I don't want to make this politically onsided recent Democrats have not been serious either they have been more concerned with pronouns and misrepresenting labor statistics to get tickets to Gala events, but at least they didn't do anything either. The stock market prefers when politicians don't do anything. If you want to understand Trump's cabinet, watch Where's My Roy Cohn on YouTube. And then Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story on Tubi. It will explain the psychology of the men in Trump's Administration and why they act the way the do. Both are free. McCarthy, Atwater, Trump, Musk, Cohn are all very much the same malformed, insecure adult who think highly of themselves and their own thoughts but still are upset no one would play with them as children even though their mommy said they were perfect.
Very interesting and thought provoking. It seems clear that the incredibly long run of peace and prosperity created by the Pax Americana after WWII based on democratic alliances and free and open trade is coming undone. Let’s pray that this open trade war between an established power and a rising power does not lead to an actual hot war which would be disastrous for the world. See The Thucydides Trap. Smart experienced policy makers would manage this risk but Trump instead has yes men and women who are lackeys and never push back against his ignorant impulses (Bessent may be the exception.) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap
Not to compare to WWII. Amount of boms and destruction is another level
You can't compare this with WWII. USA is lucky never have to fight a war on your own soil and the hold country get destroyed
For now they depend on the US, but China has been about the long game since WWII and there's no guarantee they'll stay that way. Times change and it's time we realized that. They've made inroads in developing countries to build markets for their products while also engendering goodwill and a foreign workforce. They've got 4 times the people of the US, increasingly educated. They're going to do to Africa what the US did to East Asia.
We were at our peak manufacturing output during and after WWII, when the rest of the world's manufacturing was in very sorry shape. During our manufacturing heyday, the rest of the industrialized world bought our expensively produced shit because there was no alternative at the same scale. We also didn't have nearly the amount of safety, labor, or environmental regulations to follow. I don't want to argue about whether those are good or not. Prior to this, the middle class and the poor were pretty damn poor. Our buying power ramped up at the same time as our manufacturing domination. We also didn't enjoy anywhere near the luxuries we consider basic today. Most of those came from outsourcing our expensive manufacturing to cheaper places. Now the rest of the world has caught up and we are reliant on that cheap manufacturing. Just bringing it back here without any of the other conditions that made it work the first time is not going to make it work this time.
\> ou will sacrifice upside to limit the downside. And that's ok with me personally Yep. I don't feel old, but measured by life-expectancy charts, I don't have the years to whistle away thinking "who cares, the market always comes back!" And, of course -- not to get political -- but we are living in unprecedented times. England thinking about re-joining the EU, the possible end of NATO, gold at record highs, and with fracking in decline the possible end of USA being world leader in petroleum production (losing its 175 year old title), challenges to the dollar as the reserve currency.... And so on. Maybe I'm talking crazy talk (I won't argue about that); but at a minimum the post WWII rules may be dead. There are a lot of ways to lose (stocks, gold, bonds, currency, commodities, real estate -- nothing is guaranteed). So it comes down a gamble. Wheel is spinning; drop chips on more than one number. You know the quote attributed to Napoleon: "I'd rather have lucky generals than good ones,"
LoL. "Happy days are here again" First off, I don't think we are back at "preliberation stock prices" And secondly, you do realize that that song "Happy Days are Here Again" was written in November of 1929 and recorded in February of 1930. They had to listen to that song for about a dozen years before anything resembling "happy days" were actually back and that was only because of WWII which wasn't exactly happy.
You trust Ukraine? whose national hero is Stepan Bandera - a Nazi collaborator who allied with Nazi Germany during WWII.
The rate of growth that has become some kind of baseline is absolutely insane. Over the last 100 years, there have been absolutely insane mechanisms at play to ensure the explosive growth of the stock market. Industrialization and advances there, but really its the fact that the population went from 2.5 Billion in 1950 to 8 Billion today. You know a really good way to sell more widgets? Find 3x more people to sell them to. On top of that, the international markets opened up significantly, so it wasnt just population growth, but the fact that over the ocean trade became absolutely insanely efficient (financially) and the economy's became much more open to trade. *In addition to that* technological advancement absolutely dropped an efficiency bomb onto the planet and plastics made production a totally different place. *And yet still* international money flooded into the US stock market with a lot of vigor. So when people say 'just zoom out' and so on, its a little like taking the assumption that there will be an extra 16 billion people popping up in the next 75 years, a martian economy to open up trade with, and a new material that is invented that reduces existing costs to produce things down to 1% of its former cost. I do think there are other pressures that inflate the market and will continue to inflate it, but there is a very clear 'end' to a lot of this 'bull' that has been happening since WWII.
Tariffs? Here’s why I’m not worried — and why I’m buying the dip:” 1. Tariffs = a virus. Only the strong survive. The U.S.? Olympic-level strength. 2. Tariffs are man-made. And that man is famous for flipping narratives overnight. Don’t overreact. 3. History check: The U.S. handled WWII, the Cold War—real challenges. Today? It’s the sole superpower. 4. Global markets = wild jungle. The fiercest survive. The U.S. has unmatched military & economic power. Conclusion: Buy the f*ing dip. I’m going all-in—cash deployed, margin account ready for the next 2 weeks. Fortune favors the bold.
I know you’re being sarcastic but that’s literally what happened after the Great Depression. We came out of that much stronger than we were before. The period after WWII until the 1970s was one of the most prosperous times in American History.
"If more than 75% of the stocks on the NYSE are higher today (and looking pretty likely as of now) a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) will trigger today. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has never been lower 6- and 12-months later." Interesting, obvious stargazing in many ways, but still an interesting data point
The US can't onshore $1T dollars as you say - not without severe pain. First, we don't have the infrastructure to do this. The US can't build new factories without China. Second, our labor pool is unskilled and entitled or maybe better to say expectant in terms of base salary. You can't find people in the US willing to work for 40 hours/week at a yearly salary of $6000. The lofty economic position of the US is not because of exceptionalism but because we are willing to export dollars and provide a stable economy for those dollars to derive value. Not to be flippant here, I get that this is an over simplification, but I want to stress the point, if you want the US economy to return to the 1950s, you have to expect wages to return to the 1950s as well. Only, a 1950s economy where the rest of the world was equally competitive and not destroyed from participation in WWII. Really, the only way to increase GDP productively is a New Deal type of initiative. Which would require increases in taxes OR the US continues to be a stable financial hub. Which means we export dollars and import crap.
Post WWII in the US was great for a lot of people. Affordable housing, good union jobs, the rise of suburbia. There was plenty of shared prosperity. Of course a good chunk of the non-white population wasn’t able to participate in this wealth so it absolutely depends on your POV.
Let me get this straight. The US after WWII had the largest productive capacity of any country. Its one to the reasons we won. China, who was in shambles, took a few years to figure it out but eventually copied it and was able to do it for much less since their political structure allowed them to keep labor rates down. Our wonderful MBA trained leadership being focused on PROFITS yielded that productive capacity to anyone who would take it to make more PROFITS. If academia or the political world complained the MBAs just paid them to be quiet. So now we demand that that productive capacity be returned BUT we still want to be in charge and make our PROFITS without having to pay those low wages. I am really having trouble making the math work. Maybe quantum mechanics might help. My biggest problem though is that power has always gone to the country with the largest productive capacity that would allow them to build both the largest military and / or economic power base. Kinda looks like China has the cards to me.
It’s takes minutes to destroy what took decades to build and maintain. Although the US has never been an honest broker the system it established post WWII served its interest well and we all benefited. The damage has been done.
Never forget that America First was coined by pro-nazi Americans like Charles Lindbergh to keep us out of WWII. Woody Guthrie warned us. "America First means America Next."
Never forget that America First was coined by pro-nazi Americans like Charles Lindbergh to keep us out of WWII. Woody Guthrie warned us. "America First means America's next." https://youtu.be/BzLOTHciIKI?si=PYQlma9t7DfQUiTy
Nah bro i fought in WWII
Cry about it They had to sit inside during covid and follow Trump on Twitter? Beats having to fight in WWII or Vietnam This generation has it easier than ever in human history
I’d say another big domino to fall was Musk doing a freakin nazi salute! That’s gonna turn off more than just libs but idk any self respecting American that had family that fought in WWII and read a history book post WWII or seen any of the countless movies/tv shows that universally paint Nazis as the greatest villains of the 20th century
You have been living in a world like that since WWII ended. Wake up.
He’s not ruining anything. These dumb motherfuckers you call “mom, dad, brother, sister, uncle, aunt, cousin, neighbor” are ruining everything by being too mentally feeble to be labeled as actual humans. They’re the trash voting other absolute trash into positions of power. They deserve to be treated exactly as nazi’s were treated after WWII—spit on in the street. Even the dumbest nazi wasn’t as straight up mentally deficient as the smartest maga republican.
The Beatle was super popular in the late 60s 20ish years after WWII People forget even faster today.
We would be cosplaying Germany from WWII
1968 is the moment where the German populace overwhelmingly agreed with "the rest of the world" on what had actually happened around WWII, even after their country and economy was utterly destroyed... so for maga, the answer is no, there are no lines or point at which they will put country over cult.
Because each of the options are so far removed from controlling risk that it has to be ironic. - Crypto for risk control? Really? - Rolling into stocks during the worst uncertainty for the American dollar since WWII? - Investing in an airbnb after the airbnb crash? That's like investing in pagers!
The only potential problem with this theory is that you can’t win a game unless you first take the field to play. IMHO, the greatest threat to America’s economic power is the political strength of the America First movement. The last time this movement was as strong as today was the 1930’s. If not for December 7, 1941, the US probably never would have fought in WWII. This political movement is not something Trump created, (and will long survive Trump being gone). This movement also is bitterly opposed to the very existence of the global economy, (and the US participation in that economy). I could easily see a substantial majority of American people happily sitting out a 3rd world war.
Smh why didn't people in the Great Depression just buy military stocks? Didn't they know that WWII was just around the corner?
I have lurked within the right's bubble. There is a crazy almost religious capitalist take on the Financial crisis and COVID disasters. Basically, there was this criticism from the Gingrich that we should just let the economy crash. For some reason, they think that trashing everything and ensuring years of hardship just means we'll rise stronger. Efforts to fix things only create deeper problems that can't be fixed in their mind. Its really a nihilistic and delusional view, but it resonates strongly with people who believe that suffering brings salvation. This might explain why he's trashing the safety net, regulations, trade, everything. There are market fundamentalists inside the cabinet that hold this view and are probably enabling it. They too are delusional. Our economic success was built on WWII and that was because other countries destroyed themselves and we didn't. Our success after Reagan was using that lead to put ourselves at the center of world trade. Now the world has built itself up... and they expect us to compete against them with none of the old advantages and the hindrance of being absolutely broke, But, they have faith that Americans will work hard and create this Golden Age while the state literally does nothing to help. They are not helping to make a Golden Age, because they expect us to build it for them without any help!
Yeah kind of how U.S "survived" WWII /s
You guys need to study your history. This is the western world USA demanded after WWII. Now they demand self reliance. EU wont come back.
>But here’s what genuinely concerns me: ***What if Trump's actions actually reflect the broader will of the American people?*** As someone living in Florida who has watched the state become more and more conservative over time, this is in my top 3 fears for our future right now. I'm surrounded by people who do not understand finance or economics, but insist that Trump's crusade to bring the US back to a primary and secondary economy is somehow better for them. People think that the American people have bought into the open racism and contempt that Trump espouses, but that is not the real underlying cause, IMO. The real underlying cause is inequality. Unfortunately, the simplest way to rationalize a solution is to look at the past and think: "Well, my great grandfather could afford a house when he came back from WWII, so maybe we need to go back to the way things were just after WWII." This is a profoundly wrongheaded way of thinking, but it is *simple* and people *love* simple. They want things to be black and white. Even people who espouse to be rational and intellectual actually pine for simplicity. Consider, for example, that when asked about the disparity in crime rates between minorities and whites, they rush quickly to (perfectly valid) systemic explanations. Ask that same progressive about the rise of MAGA and where is the close examination of systemic causes? It's out there, but it's very rare. The most common explanation is that they're all dumb or undereducated. Well, from a strictly academic viewpoint, so are the minorities that drive high crime rates, but we don't blame them for their circumstance. And yet somehow that nuance is absent when discussing the rise of MAGA. This drives the wedge deeper and deeper. The reasons for this are pretty obvious. It's difficult to engender sympathy for someone who has enacted their own persecution. The same group of individuals (MAGA) have consistently voted for politicians who enact policies that drive this inequality and marginalize the American worker. However, if you take the rational, solution focused approach, blame isn't particularly useful. So why are humans so attached to it? That I cannot answer. I'm at the point where I believe the American divide is going to have to play itself out to a breaking point. I don't know exactly how severe that fracture will be, but the polarization has become so entrenched, and the viewpoints so firmly attached to identity, that I see no peaceful pathway to reconciliation. I know people don't want to hear that, but this is going to come to violence at some scale. American's are too distant from any real suffering to anticipate the consequences of what is currently playing out, and they will stick their hand into the fire once again.
49% of the country hates him off the bat. So let's give a 49% sane baseline. Add to that at least another 20% who are regretting their vote for him. Worst case scenario there are still 31% diehards who are willing to trust whatever the hell he is doing to see where it leads. I don't think his tariff and trade plan is going to work out in the end, but that 31% won't believe me until they actually see the results. That may take a while. If interest rates stay high, if inflation stays high, if the stock market declines, if the job market declines even some of these 31% will finally fall off. For right now, these people are on a high based on "sticking it to the Democrats" and "sticking it to the migrants," etc. They are in the honeymoon phase. I have somehow inherited my mother's cockeyed optimism in middle age and I feel like no matter how bad things seems we will come around in the end. I am still betting on the American economy. Everyone can call me crazy. My Mom lived through the Depression, WWII, McCarthyism, Vietnam, Nixon, etc. and still remained optimistic. I was much more pessimistic growing up and into my 30s and 40s. Now for the first time I am somehow feeling more like her. I've seen a lot and I'm not ready to give up yet.
tl;dr at this scale of economic turmoil, vibes > everything else. The vibes are dead six feet under. The fact of the matter is that it’s bad for everyone. The US can do so many things at once on the global scale like no one else can I don’t think it’s even a competition. It’s not just an economic reorientation, it’s removing the geopolitical foundation that has existed since WWII. I don’t mean to be argumentative, but you’re making this sound like pulling off a scab rather than being that poor bastard in Saw who had to cut off his foot. I imagine the mention of selling bonds en masse is going to be half as much as a painful as trying to actually sell them. If entire nations are selling off US treasury bonds, especially the biggest holders, who in their right mind would buy them? The US? A relatively small portion perhaps. China? They’d probably laugh. Smaller countries? Why not wait for the next big man up? Banks? Funny joke. What we end up with is hundreds of billions of dollars worth of rotting meat with somewhat certain knowledge that a fresh shipment is bound to arrive. You either sell at a massive loss or take a massive hit in your own financial markets and wait for the next man up but who knows when or how that comes about, and what problems that can create. G7 (minus US) planning a gradual sell off would mitigate damage but the precedent surely applies as buyers aren’t going to kick their feet back for a few decades. Canada has to make massive reforms to deregulate and reorient their economy to one without the US as the primary trading partner, or one that massively benefits their GDP, which, just by the nature of its geography and their complimentary industries, is a tall order to say the least. Could they sell off bonds? Yes. Should they sell off bonds? I think so, but it will hurt. Market action is one thing, we can see where things might end up, but this situation is obviously more predicated on the geopolitical reality of a world that completely loses the largest security force and financial reserve of the world as a reliable partner. A large proponent of globalized trade and finance disappears with a wealth of assets and institutional knowledge in national wealth management is not a “no biggie” situation. The Sun is probably brighter on the other side for other non-psychotic world powers, but it’s a road of spikes and bandits and no one can honestly predict how long that road is. Trump can be disgruntled and have his gripes about trade deficits, tariffs, and surpluses or whatever the fuck, but the real problem isn’t that Trump just wants to make new trade deals that benefit American manufacturing. That wouldn’t be so bad if you’re representing Japan’s economy; the problem is that Trump is a completely mind-captured POS whose motives and goals completely undermine the trust the US provides while having no actionable plan other than to threaten tariffs for no apparent reason. This is probably the third worst day for a Japanese delegation meeting with the US in history. And if you know the other two, that’s pretty bad.
Post WWII has never experienced an unhinged King 🥭
Except post WWII Germany and post WWII Japan are not the same countries as they were before. Sure the people and land stayed the same, kinda you know with Germany being split in half, but the government fundamentally changed. We can save the country by fundamentally altering our government, but it would also be fair to say the rebuilt country is a new country.
You already have. The global economic system has been centered on the US since the end of WWII. This terribly conceived trade war, along with the dismantling of the US's soft power around the world, is accelerating the shift away from the US as the global economic hub. History will remember it as one of the most self sabotaging acts by a major global power, ever.
Sorry friend, America has already lost the trade war. Even if trump reversed course this evening the world has lost trust in American promises. Why would anyone make a trade deal with a country whose leader will throw out the deal for any arbitrary reason? Why would a company invest in American manufacturing given the volatility of the government? For the entire post war period (WWII, arguably WWI) America has been in a privileged position to lead the world in economic policy, the USD has been the worlds reserve currency, America has benefitted immensely from this position and Americans have attained tremendous wealth in the process. Going forward this will not be the case. Expect weapons sales to decline as countries find other sources to fulfill their defense needs. Expect more competition for resources as previous partners like Canada diversify their trade relationships. Expect a smaller market for American bonds as the world loses confidence in American economic policy. Expect diversification away from the USD for international trade as Europe and China flex their muscles on trade and oil producing countries move away from American influence. We don’t see the full effects today, but America will decline and was caused by this trade war.
How long until Harvard isn't one of the top 10 schools on the planet? A certain amount of people move. A large portion of people throughout history and even today die in the same general area they were born in. When it comes to countries that phenomenon is overwhelmingly large. The infrastructure and social ties for these people are large draws. Brain drain is almost never rapidly done. Even if you look at one of the single largest events of it in recent history (Germany post-WWII) the country still took a long time to suffer brain drain and rebounded into an engineering and productivity powerhouse rapidly after the event.
"Good tzar, bad boyars." Same shit happened in Germany in WWII too.
We are witnessing the collapse of the post-WWII global order. If you think this is just part of the normal ebbs and flows of the market and economy then you need to get your head out of the sand.
So true. Too many Americans don't understand how our political stability, the rule of law and our institutions are directly tied to our economic power and success. They are about to find out the hard way what happens when all of this is attacked and torn down. We've had 80 years of stability since the end of WWII and our wise decisions and policies then built the greatest and richest nation the world has ever seen. Now, in a fit of radical populism, we are tearing down the very institutions that gave us this success. This is how great powers fall.
They need those blow up factory's like in WWII. 🥭 wouldn't know the difference from Trump Force 1
There were historical comparisons for WWII (WWI), Dot Com boom/crash (any preceding technology/single-asset-based boom/bust), Great Recession (any preceding recession), and COVID (Spanish Flu). In each case we either implemented or ignored lessons learned from those experiences.