WWII

W0lv3rIn321

Are bears actually regarded Historically, the stock market has tended to be **bullish** during times of war, though it usually experiences a brief, initial **bearish** or volatile reaction when conflict first breaks out. Markets fundamentally dislike uncertainty, causing a temporary dip on the news of a conflict, followed by a steady recovery as the situation stabilizes and the economic impact becomes clearer. **Rapid Recovery:** In 19 of 20 historical post-WWII conflicts, the market returned to its pre-event levels in an average of just 28 to 55 days. **12-Month Outlook:** Examining conflicts since WWII, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after the onset of the conflict roughly 73% of the time, boasting an average return of approximately 7% to 11%

redguru02

Idk. Being an 18-25 yr old man during WWII, Korea, Vietnam, 08, or 2020 seems like a pretty big burden with almost no positives. If you enter the workforce during a recession you lose roughly 500k-1mil in lifetime income on average.

Asleep-Strike4978

Yeah. Eyes watering for soldiers flying overseas to kill hundreds of thousands of civilians. Except for WWII, I can’t think of a single war where we were in the right side of the history

Hellmale

I actually found today how we started building stick building instead of Bricks building. After WWII, there was huge demand for new houses for the returning soldiers. There was this guy named Levitt from New York came up with building homes with 2x4 and now we have homes that lasts only 40-50 years.

Lost_in_space424

I think this is a genuinely good bear thesis. I could see all of this happening if the nations like China, Russia, or the U.S. decide the current world order that has kept since the end of WWII is through. I absolutely do believe that China will eventually overpower Russia in a war, bleeding a lot of men, but also taking over land and populations. I think Europe becomes contested and eventually is annexed to the U.S. territory. China would get control of the Middle East and Africa, and become the superpower of the world while the U.S. sinks to china’s current status. I could see it but the timeline would most certainly start with another Middle East ground war and U.S. aggression.

GullibleSky1269

Plain as day- he has always voiced his disdain for stocks- he was installed (and compromised) in order to crash the US economy- they must have a strong Dollar, so since 82’ I’ve watched them crash economy to get DXY to 120 or whatever which allows them to print 5 Trillion and drop rates to zero again- he will siphon as much of the 5Trill to himself and family as he can, then buy up NY Real Estate at 3-4%- He wants revenge on NY and that’s the plan- As well as new “jails” for political opponents and central bank dig currency to control the rest of us- Please stop by your bank and randomly get a couple hundred in CASH- then walk out of any establishment that doesn’t accept hard CASH- that’s how small little me can fight against this Treasonous 2 party system- Happy Memorial Day :)- Neither of my Grandpa’s fought in WWII for this Shit and they are likely to come outta their Fn graves- One day soon, they’ll take all the hard cash like they made us trade in our gold- other than that I’m alive and super grateful for this country -The Universe doesn’t stay outta wack for long..peace out

Biuku

We need to take away America’s military. They aren’t the right people to have that much power. It was the default option after WWII… it was stupid. We made them rich. Let’s make them something else.

john-know-nothing

Imagine if in WWII we got hourly updates on potential peace treaties, 99.99999% of which were horseshit

All_FIREdUp

You know, with every year being hotter than the last…I’m sure as fuckin hell glad I’m in my 30’s right now. Last helicopter out of Saigon shit. Swear to god we are the last few generations to live the outlandish fucking abundance life. I don’t believe in a sudden collapse but I sure as shit believe society will devolve into its next dark ages over the next few hundred years. Maybe it’s because I just toured the Roman baths but think about how crazy advanced the Roman Empire was. It slowly devolved into the Mideival, disease ridden, and superstitious part of history. We have it all right now. You were born into the best part of humanity’s entire history into a world of abundance that you can’t even fathom because it’s all you’ve known. Despite the shittiness that you think there is. Just fucking wait until 100 years from now when large swathes of the Earth are uninhabitable during most of the year, crops can’t grow, and our fucking population has had to migrate North to have a survivable climate. Goddamn we’ve cocked it all up 😅 You’re alive in the golden times of humanity right now. You’re post WWI and WWII, have insane technology in your palm, by and large a peaceful globe (and yes, I know there are horrible wars going on. But not The Great War), can walk into a grocery store and have anything you could possibly want, etc. etc. Anyway, here’s your fries. Sorry for the wait sir!

CoughRock

not really, economy naturally expand over time. Using last 5 years growth rate as average. As long as we stop increase federal spending for the next 11 years. The economy will eventually out growth the debt. Since even it's 3-4% per year. The growth is compounding and will out pace the debt interest if spending is frozen. IE: Great britian didnt pay off its WWII war debt until in the mid 2000. But by then the economy is so much larger than the old debt that it's irrelevant and make more sense to delay pay off early. Greece is another example of freeze spending until economy outgrow it. It's not impossible. But since it require 11 years of spending freeze. Not cancel spending but just to keep spending the same, less of chance people get mad about spending freeze instead of cancel spending. That would require 3 full terms of presidency from both parties to agree to stop adding expense. Just need to wait 11 years then we will return to clinton era budget surplus. But can these congress tard resist the temptation to open the public purse string for 11 years ? that's the hard part.

AggravatingCrow897

Meth cocktails for Presidents goes back a long way to WWII.

Suspicious-Active-38

Stock market did fine during WWII dont worry about it

kwijibokwijibo

>Or if Valve gets into defense contracting itll be WWII Episode 2 At least that'll be the last war we ever have

Lambchops_Legion

It wont be WWIII, we’re going the final fantasy route so itll be called WWII-2. Or if Valve gets into defense contracting itll be WWII Episode 2

wetblanket68iou1

Rolls Royce did it right before WWI and then made a sweet engine for the Mustang for WWII…..wait….oh shit…..

Useful_Tangerine4340

WWII again all over again

CoughRock

in some way that is true. Britian didn't manage to pay off its WWII debt until the mid 2000s. But by then the economy is significantly larger, it doesnt take much to service the ancient debt. If government stop increase spending every single year, eventually economic growth will outpace it exponentially. At current us gdp growth rate. The government need to stop spending increase for about 11 years straight in order to get to budget surplus. But that's a hard task to ask. Not even cut spending, just stop approve new spending.

wtfredditacct

Look, I just spent way too long reading that monster doomer post and honestly, it's one of the most thorough collections of "everything is fucked" I've seen in a while on here. Props for the effort, but man, if I took that as gospel I'd be hiding cash in my mattress and shorting my own 401k. Instead, here's why I think the whole vibe is backwards and why I'm still net bullish on sticking with the market long-term. Debt is sky-high, sure. We're over 100% debt-to-GDP again, flirting with records. People have been screaming "unsustainable!" about this stuff since the '80s, and Japan has been living with way worse ratios for decades without the sky falling. We print the world's reserve currency—demand for Treasuries doesn't just vanish overnight. Yeah, fiscal dominance and the Fed basically backstopping everything feels weird, but it's not some brand new doomsday. We did versions of this through WWII, the post-war boom, and the last couple crises. Sovereign countries that borrow in their own currency don't go bankrupt like your drunk uncle with credit cards. The real limits are inflation and whether the economy actually produces more shit. And here's the flip side everyone's sleeping on: if AI and tech actually deliver on productivity (which early signs and serious forecasts suggest they will), that expands the whole pie and makes the debt burden way more manageable in real terms. High debt after big investments in infrastructure or tech has kicked off strong growth periods before, not Armageddon. Parking everything in cash "waiting for the reset" just guarantees you eat inflation and miss the ride. On inflation and the Fed losing independence: Post-COVID spike happened because of crazy supply messes plus stimulus, but it's come down a lot. Central banks aren't idiots—they've got decades of tools and credibility. Yield curve control or keeping rates artificially low? Done before, especially after big wars, and it coincided with solid real growth and stocks doing fine. The Fed flips between hawk and dove depending on the situation; it's pragmatic, not captured forever. Globalization and tech act as brakes on runaway prices anyway. With AI cutting costs across energy, healthcare, manufacturing, logistics—you name it—we could actually get a disinflationary growth wave where nominal stuff looks okay but real returns for investors are killer. Hyperinflation doomers and gold stackers have been wrong for literal generations now. Housing "bubble"? It's more like a chronic shortage from years of underbuilding, NIMBY zoning bullshit, and ridiculous construction costs. Yeah, prices ran hot with low rates and migration, but higher rates have cooled the crazy speculation. We're already seeing shifts: more YIMBY policies popping up in blue and red states, modular building and robotics that could slash build times and prices, AI helping with design and permitting. Remote work spread demand out. This isn't 2008—lending is tighter, no NINJA loans everywhere. A real crash needs massive oversupply and forced selling. We've got the opposite problem. Higher prices in good areas just show where the economic action is. Over time, more supply coming online plus cheaper building tech should ease affordability without torching everyone's equity. Sitting out "waiting for the housing collapse" might mean watching rents keep climbing and missing out on building wealth. All the stagflation/recession/yield curve talk: Sure, curves invert and we get slowdowns. They've happened plenty. But we've also had soft landings, and economies recover. The doomer version treats the whole system like a house of cards ready to blow over. Nah—it's messy and self-correcting, with huge tailwinds from reshoring, energy tech, and companies getting leaner. Recessions suck but they're normal creative destruction. Markets have climbed through way worse. High valuations and AI hype: Tech stocks aren't cheap, fair enough. But these aren't pets.com vaporware companies. The winners have real moats—data, networks, actual cash flows—and AI looks like one of those once-in-a-generation technologies (electricity, internet) that rewires everything. Productivity numbers are still early but showing up in spots, and the capex is real. Some stuff will flop, sure, but the broad indexes have survived wars, depressions, bubbles, and pandemics. Dollar-cost averaging and time in the market have made patient people rich despite all the volatility. Trying to perfectly time the top is a loser's game for most. Bottom line, the big picture these posts miss: Human progress doesn't stop. We're getting better at solving hard problems faster than ever—AI, biotech, energy, robotics. Demographics have challenges but tech extends working lives and pulls in global talent. Governments and banks adapt (they learned from '08 and 2020). Every single "this time is different, the end is near" panic—70s, 87 crash, dot-com, housing bust, COVID—ended with new highs eventually. Stocks have delivered around 10% annualized long-term when you include dividends and reinvest. Yeah, risks are real. Rates, politics, geopolitics, whatever. They always are. But the opportunity cost of sitting in cash or T-bills forever is massive. Inflation quietly eats your lunch while the world keeps innovating. Own productive assets, diversify, keep saving and learning, and play the long game. The wall of worry is real, but markets climb it anyway. The future isn't guaranteed, but betting against adaptability and ingenuity has been a historically terrible trade. Chill on the doom, stack quality stuff when it dips, and live your life. Most of these nightmare scenarios have been "imminent" for decades. --- This keeps the full length, coherence, and every key counterpoint but dials back the AI tells: shorter/more varied sentences, casual phrasing ("man," "nah," "bullshit," "chill"), contractions everywhere, a touch of snark, and less formulaic transitions. It flows more like an opinionated long-form Reddit reply now. Feel free to tweak any personal bits before posting. *I didn't write any of that, it's 100% AI slop.

HungryAct40

Makes no sense. They need inflation to be greater than the interest rate in order to inflate the debt away. Supercharge the economy with low interest which causes inflation. More dollars available but they are worth less than before. Pay with debt with less valued dollar. Also debt/GDP Ratio gets better as GDP rises faster than debt. See what happened between the end of WWII and 1974. Same thing going to happen again.

Key-Banana-8242

(Public) debt to GDP literally just means private sector treasury assets to GDP ratio is higher lo Not just morhintbyrger They will always be able to because they’re literally the same ones printing both types of paper and defining the numbers on it Throughout WWII they set flat yields

Gambelero

One of the tendencies of capitalism, itself, is to over do things. I’ll use “cycling” here to refer to alternating periods irrational exuberance followed hard on by unjustified despair. In the period from WWII to Volcker, we had boom->recession cycle times of between three and four years, two post war in the forties, three in the fifties, two in the sixties and three from 1970 to 1981. The cycling between euphoria and panic was easiest to see in real estate. Canopy has been a poster child for cycling in our sector. It went up way beyond what future cash flows warranted several times during euphoric periods. Other companies (pre-Aphria Tilray up to $3000, VFF during the Texas hemp excitement, Charlotte’s Web during the CBD craze, and many others—note the numbers are split-adjusted) experienced similar run-ups. We’re sitting now where many of the LPs are way up from their capitulating despair level, but still down a huge amount from their highs in 21. What you have to ask yourself for Canopy and other LPs is whether you believe in their management. Someone in this pointed out the $4B wealth destruction. One could argue that Cronos’ managers have been the smartest. Fairview would nominate DeGiglio; others have pointed out Organigram’s management (though today’s report doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in the new CEO); others like High Tide; and you have to give SNDL’s management credit for their adroit reaction to the meme run, but they don’t seem nearly as successful when it comes to actually running a business. For my part, I see MSOs’ management as doing a much better job. Just in the sense of not making incredibly stupid acquisitions, they’ve been way better.

Mage_Ozz

GoPro? Sounds like an item released after WWII

Cold_Specialist_3656

Historically there's been a recession during every Republican second term since WWII.  Always the same way. They overheat the economy to boost (mostly rich) people stock and property values.  The commercial property market is deep into "extend and pretend". Housing is teetering on the abyss despite Trump's blatant attempts to boost values. The bond market is signalling inflation while Trump screams at the fed to lower rates. Oil is over $100 a barrel and climbing.  AI is the only thing keeping economy afloat. 

RagingBearBull

I think the US loosing to Iran is bullish. I studied WWII and Iran is the birth place of a certain master .... So loosing to them would be bullish, also oil

FrequentUpperDecker

Happy WWII victory day everyone

bols_are_cooked

The debt exceeds GDP for the first time since WWII as gas and grocery prices approach record levels across the world. Sounds sustainable.

Happy-n-Healthy

Did he fight in Iran?....Come on bro.....I'm talking about the rank and file folks, My WWII Grand dad had a Iranian Heart Surgeon save his life

spaurake

Pretty sure Mango will soon refer to the WWI and WWII as the First and the Second World Ceasefires

tachyonvelocity

lol you still think war is bad for stocks? War isn’t bad for stocks, have never been bad for stocks, unless you’re talking about short term knee jerk reactions, because far away wars have almost no effect on company earnings. Do you understand how the US got out of the Great Depression? Partially a reason was because it went into WWII and the economy surged on the back of war manufacturing boom.

fungi43

Drawdowns of 60% or more are exceptionally rare, but they do happen. In the rhistory of the U.S. stock market, a crash of 60% has only happened four times across the major indices. 1. The Great Depression (1929–1932) Index: Dow Jones Industrial Average / Broad Market Decline: ~89%   The Context: The most devastating and famous crash in U.S. history. After peaking at 381.17 in September 1929, the Dow began a brutal, multi-year collapse that bottomed out at 41.22 in July 1932. It took roughly 25 years (until November 1954) for the index to return to its pre-crash highs.   2. The Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002) Index: Nasdaq Composite Decline: ~78% The Context: While the S&P 500 fell by about 49% during this period (spared from hitting the 60% mark), the tech-heavy Nasdaq was completely decimated. Driven by the bursting of the internet speculation bubble, the index wiped out nearly 78% of its value between its peak in March 2000 and its trough in October 2002.   3. The Long Depression / Panic of 1893 (1890–1896) Index: Dow Jones Industrial Average (Early Era) Decline: ~63% The Context: In the early days of the Dow, a cocktail of banking panics, gold reserve depletion, and major railroad bankruptcies triggered a brutal secular bear market. The index fell from a peak of 78.38 in June 1890 down to its all-time historical low of 28.48 on August 8, 1896.   4. The Pre-WWII Bear Market (1937–1942) Index: Dow Jones / S&P 500 Predecessor Decline: ~60% The Context: Triggered by an economic recession within the Great Depression and doubts about government recovery policies, the market began a grinding five-year decline in March 1937. The uncertainty of the outbreak of World War II pushed the market further down until it finally bottomed in April 1942. 5. Notable Near-Miss: The Great Recession (2007–2009) It is worth noting the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. While it caused the collapse of major financial institutions and triggered a massive global recession, the S&P 500 narrowly avoided the 60% threshold, dropping 56.8% from its peak in October 2007 to its low in March 2009.  

BowlEducational6722

It means Trump tried to stupidly put our warships in an indefensible position by sending them through the Strait...and leaving them sitting ducks for Iranian drones and missiles with very little room to maneuver. You remember those reports that Iran attacked a US destroyer? I wouldn't be shocked if the attack was a lot more serious than reported and Trump got scared of being the first president to lose a warship in combat since WWII.

BluePoros

Not sure if there's a direct correlation on performance with reporting frequency... I always thought that a lot of US companies got the upper hand due to WWII and snowballed from there I don't think we're still on the stage of having AI take full control, but I could be wrong... This AI boom still feels like the EV craze during covid or any other hot topic before This wouldn't be less transparency; companies wouldn't exactly be going mia for half a year and bring in a six month worth of accounting books. They'd still have to keep public updated on current events and future plans/outlooks + they're supposed to have most relevant and important info out for the public, you just need to search for them. Earnings day is basically accounting + plans summarized for the average Joe to digest I do understand that quarter system has been working fine for the last half century, but we have no guarantee it's gonna do so in the current environment where public sentiment is so big and strong over numbers. Not saying to give up on quarter reports completely, but having the option for semiannual could actually help a decent company dwindling on recent shortcomings from having too much stuff on their plate

bearwithme23

That dude in Germany prior to WWII did it and scored bigtime. Pre-hyperinflation, real estate's a great bet

Co_OpQuestions

To be perfectly fair, that's what all Nukes have been since WWII lmao

SeaworthinessOwn2479

Damn, you are right : Sinking of USS Maine- enters Spanish-American war Sinking of Lusitania - enters WWI Pearl Harbour - enters WWII Basically attacking America's ships is like one of history's many Biffs calling Marty McFly chicken.

Basic_Butterscotch

The British pound has been revalued many times over the past 1,000 years though. The current iteration of the GBP has only existed since 1971. The shilling coin is no longer considered legal tender. The US has never changed its currency or de-monetized old notes/coins ever with the rare exception of things like the WWII Hawaii notes. If you found old coins from the 1700s you could spend them although obviously their collector value is much more than face value at this point.

ModeForJoe

BREAKING NEWS: Spirit Airlines bankruptcy proceedings switched to a reorganizational bankruptcy thanks to a last-minute rescue deal, spearheaded by Spirit Halloween. The two companies originally split in 1947 when the holiday mail-order company founder's sons went into different directions: one using surplus WWII planes for delivery, and the other into brick and mortar sales. Both brothers would later die of a car crash dueling each other in a game of chicken in 1953, inspiring the movie Rebel Without a Cause. Their widows would carry on to raise 4 children together in a lesbian marriage, frowned upon based on the standards of the day. Foul play was never ruled out, and both were known to share a "scissors-like" secret handshake witnessed during social functions as early as 1944. The secret history of Spirit remains a mystery to this day.

Legitimate-Sock2188

Who writes this stuff its been over 100 since 2012 and peaked in 2020 beating the WWII level at \~128 at that time.

KemShafu

# Midterm Cycle Table (1926–2022) |Year|Peak Month|Trough Month|Drawdown Length|Recovery Start|Notes| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |1926|Feb|Oct|\~8 mo|Nov 1926|Classic midterm pattern| |1930|Apr|Dec|\~8 mo|Early 1931|Great Depression distortion| |1938|Mar|Apr|\~1 mo|May 1938|Sharp V-bottom| |1942|Apr|Jul|\~3 mo|Aug 1942|WWII bottom| |1946|May|Oct|\~5 mo|Nov 1946|Post-war reset| |1950|Jan|Jul|\~6 mo|Aug 1950|Korea War volatility| |1954|Jan|May|\~4 mo|Jun 1954|Mild correction| |1958|Jul|Oct|\~3 mo|Nov 1958|Late-cycle dip| |1962|Dec (1961)|Jun|\~6 mo|Jul 1962|“Kennedy Slide”| |1966|Feb|Oct|\~8 mo|Nov 1966|Tightening cycle| |1970|Dec (1968)|May|\~17 mo|Jun 1970|Recession overlap| |1974|Jan|Oct|\~9 mo|Nov 1974|Deep bear (-40%+)| |1978|Sep (1976 high lag)|Feb|\~5 mo|Mar 1978|Inflation pressure| |1982|Nov (1980–81 plateau)|Aug|\~9 mo|Aug 1982|Major secular bottom| |1986|Aug|Oct|\~2 mo|Nov 1986|Mild correction| |1990|Jul|Oct|\~3 mo|Nov 1990|Gulf War shock| |1994|Feb|Apr|\~2 mo|May 1994|Soft landing| |2006|May|Jul|\~2 mo|Aug 2006|Housing peak era| |2010|Apr|Jul|\~3 mo|Aug 2010|QE-driven rebound| |2014|Sep|Oct|\~1 mo|Nov 2014|Very shallow dip| |2018|Sep|Dec|\~3 mo|Jan 2019|Fed tightening scare| |2022|Jan|Oct|\~9 mo|Nov 2022|Inflation / Fed cycle|

AmazingBenefit9784

Tech companies are the "Volkswagen and Lamborghini during WWII" of the 2026

Logical-Bookkeeper77

Japan in WWII after a-bomb.

SmootherPebble

I was curious and asked Gemini about this company: To understand **The San Juan Mining and Developing Company**, it is helpful to look at the specific era in which it operated—the post-WWII "Uranium Boom" and the traditional mining landscape of southwest Colorado. ### 1. The Uranium Connection While the company's name suggests general mining, the date on your certificate (**1958**) is significant. During the 1950s, the Colorado Plateau (which includes the San Juan region) experienced a massive prospecting rush fueled by the Cold War. The U.S. government was the sole purchaser of uranium for nuclear weapons and energy, offering guaranteed prices. Many small companies like this one were formed to stake claims on "yellowcake" (uranium ore). Records indicate that this company held interests in the **Uravan Mineral Belt**, specifically in areas like the **Bull Canyon** district near Montrose and San Miguel counties. ### 2. Operational Focus The company was centered in **Silverton, Colorado**, a legendary mining town. In addition to uranium, they were involved in: * **The King Solomon Mine:** This was one of their primary properties. It was a gold and silver prospect located in the Cunningham Gulch area near Silverton. * **Lead and Zinc:** Like many San Juan mines, they likely processed "base metals" which were often found alongside more precious minerals. ### 3. The Individual: E. H. Dyas The name on the certificate, **E. H. Dyas**, refers to **Edward H. Dyas**. He was a prominent figure in the Colorado mining scene during the mid-20th century. He served as an officer or promoter for several mining ventures in the San Juan and Montrose areas. In many cases, these certificates were issued to "insiders" or early backers who provided the capital to purchase equipment or perform "assessment work" (the legal requirement to keep a mining claim active). ### 4. A "Penny Stock" Venture The **5-cent par value** is a hallmark of speculative mining stocks from this period. * **The Strategy:** These companies would issue millions of low-cost shares to the public to fund the high cost of tunneling and ore processing. * **The Result:** Most of these ventures were "exploration-stage" companies. They spent their capital looking for a massive strike that rarely came. If they didn't find a high-grade vein quickly, they typically ran out of money and allowed their corporate charters to lapse. ### 5. Historical Context of the Document The certificate itself was printed by a specialized financial printer (likely **Goes Lithographing Co.**, whose name often appears on the border). The intricate "vignette" at the top—the drawing of the mine—was designed to make the document look prestigious and instill confidence in investors, even if the actual "mine" was just a hole in a mountain with a few wooden sheds. If you are researching this for historical or family reasons, the **Colorado State Archives** and the **San Juan County Historical Society** in Silverton often hold the original claim maps and annual reports that provide a deeper look into where their actual tunnels were located.

Royal_Warthog_9825

How the U.S. did this after 1946: The Federal Reserve capped Treasury yields at low levels for years. Banks and institutions were encouraged or required to hold government bonds. Capital controls and banking regulations limited alternatives. Inflation after WWII stayed elevated at times. Strong GDP growth also helped shrink the debt-to-GDP ratio. The debt-to-GDP ratio fell dramatically over the next few decades partly because: nominal GDP grew fast, inflation inflated away debt, rates stayed relatively suppressed. Again my friend, this worked in the 50's. Look at my first response "where this works or not, assets will inflate" Warsh will be sworn in on May 15th. There are many that believe AI will be the growth catalyst for our GDP outgrowing our debt. Capping treasuries will insure it does "if it works". All that being said will this work in the 21st Century??? Fuck if I know. All I do know is that Warsh has similar beliefs and was much different than Powell. If he cuts rates with a hot CPI's then Repression it is.

Ancient-Swordfish292

My Great Aunt served as a nurse in WWII and was of the opinion that if you're old enough to die for your country (18), you're old enough to drink. I don't think she even drank. Was more the principle of the matter. The voting age dropped from 21 to 18 in 1971 during protests against the Vietnam war. It really surprised me to learn the change was that recent.

B1ZEN

Democratic Presidents (or Democratic-Republican) – Major Wars/Conflicts Started, Escalated, or Participated In: War of 1812 (James Madison, Democratic-Republican) Mexican-American War (James K. Polk) World War I (Woodrow Wilson – U.S. entry 1917) World War II (Franklin D. Roosevelt – U.S. entry after Pearl Harbor) Korean War (Harry S. Truman) Vietnam War (major escalation under Lyndon B. Johnson; initial involvement under JFK) Kosovo/NATO intervention in Yugoslavia (Bill Clinton, 1999) Libya intervention (Barack Obama, 2011, NATO-led) Various smaller actions: Somalia, Haiti, Syria strikes, counterterrorism operations (multiple Democratic administrations) Republican Presidents – Major Wars/Conflicts Started, Escalated, or Participated In: Spanish-American War (William McKinley) Gulf War / Operation Desert Storm (George H.W. Bush) Afghanistan War (2001) and Iraq War (2003) (George W. Bush – post-9/11 "War on Terror") Invasion of Grenada (Ronald Reagan, 1983) Invasion of Panama (George H.W. Bush, 1989) Various smaller actions: Lebanon (Reagan), Libya bombing (Reagan), tanker war incidents, post-9/11 continuations Key Notes (applies to both):Many conflicts inherited from previous administrations (e.g., Vietnam began under Eisenhower (R) but escalated under Democrats; Afghanistan/Iraq continued under Obama (D)). Post-WWII "full-scale" new wars per some analyses: Korea & Vietnam (D), Gulf War, Afghanistan & Iraq (R). Smaller interventions and militarized disputes: Some counts show more under Republicans (~35 vs. ~23 since 1900), but Democrats linked to larger-scale or higher-casualty conflicts in others. No formal U.S. declarations of war since WWII; most modern actions are authorizations, interventions, or responses. Bipartisan support common; context (attacks on U.S., alliances, threats) often drives involvement rather than party alone.

meatsmoothie82

Sure, and England would have been totally fine if the USA had never intervened in WWII.

Efficient_Pomelo_583

And you did know that in 19 out of 20 post WWII conflicts the market rebounded to previous levels 28 days into the war?

RagingAnus69

Because everything is tied into the military industrial complex. You know who makes airburst timers? Jet engines? Who has the service contracts for those engines paid out based on flight hours? GE. They invented the airburst timer using repurposed Christmas lights, which is why there were no Christmas lights to buy during WWII. You know who makes chaff? Meadowbrook. They've been the number one glitter producer since they invented it. Guess how chaff is produced? Using proprietary precision mico-machining that is, conveniently, also used to make glitter. US MRE producers are tied into every major food packaging company globally. Someone from Australia may have heard of Jensen's Organics, someone from the UK might know the name Orexis - both subsidiaries of Baxter, who makes US MREs. Patagonia? Specialized uniforms. Danner and Belleville? Standard issue GI boots. You may know Daikin as a mid-tier air conditioner company. They also make grenades. Saab? The AT-4 man-portable anti-tank weapon system. The list goes on and on and on. It costs them more to get their consumer goods to consumers, so their consumer pricing goes up and we expect those companies are probably suffering along with us. But for every extra dollar they spend making and selling consumer goods because of the fuel crisis, they make ten off the war. Revenue and profit continues increasing, so does value.

Sandvicheater

I wonder what WWII vets who had the steel cojones to storm the beaches of Normandy thinks about how pussy whipped and soft USA has become?

sleepystockmarket

That's a really interesting structural layer on top of the inflation dynamic. The GLP-1 effect is genuinely novel territory — we've never had a pharmacological intervention hit food demand at this scale before, so there's no historical playbook. The closest analogy might be the post-WWII shift in American eating habits when refrigeration and processed food became widespread — but that was additive to food spending, not subtractive. GLP-1 is the first time a technology is structurally reducing caloric intake across a meaningful population segment. For food companies the really uncomfortable question is which categories get hit hardest. Snack foods and high-calorie discretionary items (think Mondelez, Pepsi's Frito-Lay division) look more exposed than staple proteins and produce. It's worth watching whether we see category-level divergence in volume data over the next few quarters — branded snack erosion vs. protein/produce resilience.

JoseLunaArts

US military industrial complex wants war. US warmonger politicians want war. Netanyahu needs war to not be prosecuted. Trump needs to conquer Iran to win. Else he will need to comply with Iran demands to reopen Hormuz. So why all this talk about negotiations? Wall Street needs investors exuberance to sell securities. 2026 was supposed to be full of investor exuberance as midterms approached. But Trump started a 48 hour war (another Venezuela) that did not go as planned. So he is improvising. Rumors claim that his family is doing insider trading before every Trump announcement. This war ends in one of 2 scenarios: * US conquers Iran, a land the size of Alaska, almost double of Ukraine, way bigger than France and Germany combined. Remember how much time it took allies to reach Berlin passing through France in WWII. * Middle east completely void of any ressemblance of western military presence. No shades of grey, no nuances.

johnnyhokkaido

never forget that war is actually economically stimulating (see US in WWII)

daviddjg0033

Was $148 in Oman on a YouTube video from two weeks ago. Let me tell you a story from last decade and see where I am wrong: Futures are a decaying instrument - look at the April (settled) May, vs Mid July/August vs December and for argument sake the longest dated future. Markets went into backwardation because the marginal buyer of spot oil will pay $150 or higher - depending on supply/demand. Who buys crude in lots of Futures? Two decades ago I read 15% of the cost of oil was not storage - it was speculation. Storage is why I would pay more in those ling dated oil futures because I do not want my tanker to hold oil waiting on the glut of oil my storage carries in normal times and while the government declines to fill the strategic petroleum reserve. Airlines used to be able to buy Futures to hedge against Russia invading Ukraine and starting WWIII in 2014. Utilities could buy LNG contracts in case of a hurricane 🌀 LNG goes from $1 per cubic unit to $3 - or $10 in case tanks start rolling into Europe 2022. A company made more money trading futures than pro iding airline service or a utility believed trading was the solution before AI no growth meant bribing to expand utility areas of coverage or gambling on fossil fuel delivery contracts. Correct me corporate law folks - someone lobbied against an airline gambling on dice that would create a widowmaker trade blow up the Big Utility or Small Airline. One would be planning a trip only to see a whole regional hub disappear because Karen in accounting let Jacob buy more notional than this graph - a fat finger trade - while getting his kicks on with Aubrey in HR. Companies planning to expand outside plant would be stuck with ths bill to create off peak load energy. Someone might even propose the corporations sorry People should pay spot electric prices. Carl Icahn got paid to take delivery of oil when it was negative, paid to have it shipped to refineries and that oil became your OTC and Rx drug, lipstick, dental floss, every carbon compoundchemical you learn in organic chemistry like vinyl or esters anything that can think of - except for those that are easier to start with methane CH4. Not to mention liquid fuels are the only backbone of a superpower that regional powers or Europe needs. Hydrogen, an investable sector defined by $HYDR ETF is next cycle but would compete with free radicals to oxidize the tripled methane our atmosphere holds. Liquid fuels should never be burned for pleasure during good times let alone hot war in Europe longer than WWII times. Ignore my comments about tax breaks during the longest peacetime expansion since WWII because we did not wean ourselves from the fracking companies that did not turn a profit but saved Europe. Nationalization or the story about aluminum and why Reynold exists not just Alcoa is a great topic besides Methane and Carbon dioxide produced by polychain carbon molecules derived from crude like octane. Your Flintstones mobile car burns dinosaurs and plants from the Eonperiodiforgotalomgtimesgosinkedcarbon era. Costs to store commodities today means contango and those back month futures are normally higher than April or May 2026. Backwardation is spot $140 while I can pay $90 for December or $60 for 2027. Geopolitical premium can be higher than 15% because that speculation that adds a cost to the future in last decade was before fracking and the US shale production that saved Europe - not forever - but temporarily from collapsing when the tanks start marching in music emoji. Who wants to go halfs on a tanker for July 2027? I heard there will be a fireworks display. Yuge!

awakep

Performance in Recent Conflicts: Data indicates that even when U.S. stocks fell, the decline was usually temporary. In 20 major post-WWII conflicts, the S&P 500 declined just 6% on average, with 19 of those instances seeing a full recovery in an average of only 28 days. RBC Wealth Management RBC Wealth Management 1973 Yom Kippur War/Oil Embargo: Stock market experienced a sharp decline (16.1%). 1990 Gulf War: Initial invasion resulted in a 15.9% drop. 2001 Afghanistan Invasion: Short-term volatility followed by a quick recovery. 2026 Iran Conflict: Initial 9% drop, with investors experiencing a quick market recovery within weeks. RBC Wealth Management RBC Wealth Management +3 While war creates immense uncertainty and emotional volatility, history shows it is rarely the cause of a sustained bear market, which are typically driven by economic factors like recessions.

DrofwarcRetnuh

Most domineering? The Roman Empire was dominant and around much longer than America has been.  Most innovative? Our system of government is based on the Ancient Greeks and Rome as well as Enlightment ideas from France. Our systems of mathematics which allows us to even have a stock market wouldn't exist without India. Our system of industry was spurred by Industrial Revolution throughout Britain and other countries of Europe.  The main reason America was so dominant economically post WWII is because our factories weren't bombed and most other countries' were, thus setting them back and giving us a manufacturing advantage.  Not trying to downplay America's accomplishments, as it's impressive and abnormal how quick America rose to being a number one world power. But you are being way too dramatic talking about the full history of civilization. You sound like what Roman aristocrats would have said a couple hundred years before their empire collapsed. Although they wouldn't be calling people "bears" lol

Sryzon

Ford doesn't make cars, they just assemble them. That's how they were able to transition to defense during WWII and nothing has changed about that.

elitepigwrangler

WWII was 80 years ago, and the market conditions then compared to now are so vastly different it’s a completely useless comparison

Choice_Potato_6279

Yes bro, one event will fuck the market for decades when even WWII didn't do it, are you listening to yourself?

discovery999

Look up WWII. Average return of 7% a year. Ripped in the last few years. Only clowns try to time the market. 🤡

Rubricity

The problem is not their end, the problem is supply chain, you cannot rump out modern sophisticated interceptor like that you rump up shell production of WWII...back then they could do it because those weapons back then were more labour intensive then that of capital intensive

NotMe357

"JUST IN: Pentagon reportedly asks GM & Ford to begin producing weapons, reviving a WWII-era model." WW4 Baby!

notapersonaltrainer

Sure it does. The WWII bottom was in before the first US troops landed in Africa. Europe + Japan was 10x more central and overweight in the global economy than the Gulf states today and got way more wrecked. Also energy is so much more elastic today than in the 70's. Most of the world didn't have air conditioning. Flying was a high end luxury. There are more obese than hungry now. We have caloric SPRs in our waistlines and pay for stupidly expensive pills to eat less. Even the third world eats high-trophic foods, and hunger is mostly a distribution not production problem now. This is a wildly different situation than when a global baby boom was trying to keep pace with its baseline caloric requirements. Frankly, the developed world would be better off eating 10% less calories and touching grass for a few hours a day instead of running AC and lights. Imagine bearmaxxing after killing Hitler, Himmler, Goring, Himmler, and all their underlings, and destroying the entire Luftwaffe and all U-boats and most of their Einsatzgruppen proxies...in the first 30 days...because "decentralized Nazi cells are still harassing the Danish straits". The problem is Reddit is the tail end of the informational human centipede. Markets move first. Then X and wires. Then a mid-tier journalist mangles it. Then Reddit selects the worst take, amplifies it, and users trade off the top comment without reading the source, only to cry about manipulation when the move is over.

Retaining-Wall

Gold is the one store of value that seems to remain consistent no matter what happens. Except for those rare instances like post-WWII Germany where if you had a carton of cigarettes you could buy **anything.**

notapersonaltrainer

That just reinforces my point. Even the slow WWII era markets front ran like crazy. This means you have to front run even faster in today's. Bearmaxxing today would be the WWII equivalent of still selling stocks after killing Hitler, Himmler, Goring, Himmler, and all their underlings, and destroying the entire Luftwaffe and all U-boats and most of their Einsatzgruppen proxies...in 30 days...because "rogue Nazis are still blowing up tracks/pipes and the market is 'ignoring the damage done to supply lines'".

notapersonaltrainer

The WWII bottom was in before the first US troops landed in Africa. Europe + Japan was 10x more central and overweight in the global economy than the Gulf states today and got way more wrecked. The problem is Redditors try to time stale news and their sense of proportionality is based on spasmodic user submitted headlines literally ranked by mob voting. You cannot trade like this if you're trying to make money.

ChollyWheels

\> And no, that’s not irrational. Yes, it is. Stock market traders rely on patterns and take comfort from the idea marks -- seem -- always to come back, if you wait long enough. FIRST that's actually delusional -- it's mysticism, not thinking. For example after the 1929 crash the market took around 25 years to come back and (more importantly) many stock traded during the crash NEVER came back. SECOND the world, for all its sorrows, has existed in a post-WWII idea of world order. But, whatever happens, that world is GONE: \#1 Trumpets caused general damage -- to US prestige, reliability. \#2 One result of that is the dollar is in decline, with the result the US will be unable to continue its mad reliance on debt \#3 The biggest reason for the USA's power -- financially and in industry -- is a direct result of the USA being an oil power since around 1857 (not a typo). Traditional oil production peaked WHEN PREDICTED in the 1970s and since the production is way up due to the miracle of fracking. But now petroleum production is likely to decline -- and the depletion curve for fracking his HUGE. \#4 as a result of #1 and #2 and #3 the US is heading to a financial crisis -- unable to borrow, at risk of defaulting, needing to buy petroleum at a time when has no money to do that. So: five years from now? Whole different world. No one knows for sure what that will look like, except the US will be poorer and weaker than today. Want a suggestion? Learn Chinese.

altonbrownie

War is bullish. WWII pulled the US out of the Great Depression. How could WWIII be any different? Nearly the exact same name as WWII.

Torgud_

I'm familiar, but modern West likes to pretend that there is a line drawn under these post WWII and that things changed. If not for Israel, such statements could almost be believable.

Prize_Compote_207

I hate the guy but the idea here is that freedom of navigation should not be impinged. If Iran is *only* going to allow vessels it deems worthy (Asian-bound vessels, who have paid tolls) to transit the strait, then global freedom of navigation is in fact being impinged. And the blockade is a punishment on the country responsible for impinging that global freedom. (Though were all going to hurt as a downstream effect.) To be clear Trump/Bibi started all this bullshit in the first place. But also to be clear, the entire world has benefited from the US Navy securing freedom of the seas since the end of WWII. If Iran is going to fuck with that, the US (and its allies) should respond appropriately. Alternatively, we could go back to the old system of piracy, privateering, and mercantalism that existed for hundreds/thousands of years before Bretton Woods.

SonOfLuigi

I said yesterday the United States needed to choke Iran out by taking control of the strait and their oil. Welp, this is how you accomplish the first part. There will be stock market and economic pain in the short to medium term, but if this is actually done Iran’s source of funding will evaporate AND their allies (China) will put extreme pressure on them to cave. China will be absolutely wrecked without Iranian oil. The US has been putting the FDR pre-WWII pressure on them the way we did with Japan.

mx5plus2cones

Read between the lines what I meant when I said "lobbying group". I don't think I need to spell that out any more clearer. It's a heavily influential and powerful lobbying group. They have to. They have to stick together, they were persecuted pretty badly during WWII, they were shit on by every other country that borders them with attack after attack until they fought back...hard.... They have taken down US universities for it, some being Ivy League, including Harvard... Don't fuck with them.

elpresidentedeljunta

I suppose in China it would take a few weeks max to have plants running which can convert coal into oil as they did in WWII. Not fincancially viable while there is enough oil, but if you have to fill demand...

Alepman

Til atrocieties happened during WWII, done by Jihadists XD, life goes on

SonOfLuigi

The US absolutely has to gain control of Hormuz from a geopolitical and long-term strategic standpoint. You cannot leave Iran in control of it, you cannot concede the US role of guarantor of free trade. It would diminish the US more than any event post WWII otherwise. Get control of the strait and then Karg and choke Iran’s government until it falls.

Schmidtys

are we learning that the US just sucks at wars? we havent won anything since WWII and that was with help lol

Late-Combination5060

Has North Korea started WWII . What about Russia or Japan?  Anyones who have come close are America 

SuspiciousMap9630

I believe the end of this is supposed to read as “I hope and pray the people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land (in order to) get rid of European Jews burn in hell.” Meaning, the Europeans who pushed out Jews after WWII

Brawmethius

> You're clearly very young, and struggle to get your big words out. It's also clear your only knowledge of unemployment is the current rate. Pulled directly out of your ass just like your "research and analysis". Surprised you didnt feel like using the first graph in the Wikipedia reference you never read, its the same FRED chart. But I mean it was pretty obvious you just shitting out some blue links and word salad to make it seem like you aren't a total retard. Now we could talk about long term trends, how unemployment metrics only capture looking for work, dont capture decline in full time work, or what historically these rates mean in terms of job stagnation. We could look at U-6 rates accelerating, we could look at increase of people not seeking employment not in the metric, we could look at LISEP metrics which strip out a bunch if the BS. We could also talk about trending rates. For example saying historical average is 5.7% primarily for the post WWII period, we could then go but the last decade has trended 4.8% post GFC, with the covid recover at 4%. But none of that matters, because since you are so concerned with making sure "my big words" get out, let's talk about words. And what you responded to. Jobs are disappearing, to which your current claim is its below historical average. Yes, but above our local. So if you look at that graph, which direction is that line going? And follow up, in my statement is it "employment is higher than ever" or is it "jobs are disappearing". Which statement would correspond to a historical comparison, which one corresponds to a trend? What direction is that trend since the 50 year post covid historical low. > Jobs aren't "disappearing," we're still very much near all-time low unemployment. Ill let you ponder how stupid this sounds, in a fun cookie format. Historically the cookie jar usually has about 20 cookies in it, lately it had 30 cookies, your fat ass eats 9. What happened to those cookies? The cookie jar does have more cookies at 21 than historically, so I guess those 9 cookies just never existed. If you can work this out, you can eat the 10th cookie.

Loan-Pickle

Ehh congress long ago abdicated that responsibility. The last time congress declared war was WWII and we have been in lots of wars since then.

Fresh_Internal_6085

I understand all that. The way I read the other comment was that the person was implying WWIII would be different because nukes would be used, not realizing they were deployed in WWII as well.

Fresh_Internal_6085

There was 2 nukes dropped in WWII..

Apple-Dust

The markets have pushed higher under every president in the last half a century kid, that means nothing. What is different this time is the weakenening US economy and weakest global position of the US since before WWII ended. My gold has been significantly outperforming the market btw.

EventHorizonbyGA

You're close. If a company has cash flow and growth there is rarely a need to give up equity to raise capital and if there is there is enough capital in the private markets that a company wouldn't need to become public. A bank will loan you money or you can raise in the bond market. Becoming public is very expensive and has quite a lot of running costs. Companies only go IPO because the business model doesn't work, or is very unlikely to work (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and the 3000 other companies that went to zero since 1978), or if there is a legal reason, divorce, partnership break-up exit, near bankruptcy, etc (Disney, etc), or if the owners (usually family) want to cash out now and not wait (KO, COKE.) If you make money, you don't need to borrow (Arizona Tea.) If you need to borrow and can borrow without losing equity, you do that (Chick Fil A, Quick Trip, etc.) If you raise capital from one investor and not have to deal with the SEC, you do that. If you can't do those then you have no other choice but go IPO... or go broke. The public sector is the last stop. When companies go IPO that means they can't raise capital anymore in any other way. Now, an IPO is BOTH a capital infusion as the company sells shares AND an exit for early investors. The public sector is where companies go to die. On rare (very rare occasions) they manage to survive and usually it's because of money printing which is something the US did in 1951 post WWII and since the 1980s.

Stunning-Dig-8916

MM understand that all major wars bottom in the first tenth the way through. Markets in WWII bottomed in the first 5 months.

Paul_Robert_

Man, Oppenheimer, Barbie, and Godzilla minus one were a nice trio of banger movies. In a way, Godzilla minus one was Japan's perspective of WWII. Well... Plus a giant kaiju...

Outrageous_Zebra_221

Yeah plus the two that ended WWII were firecrackers compared to what we have now.

LadyRed4Justice

They really do not have a choice as Iran has already proved they do control the Strait which is within their territorial boundaries. Like Panama controls the Panama Canal. The orange minion will have to retreat from this war. Iran will NOT back down. They would destroy their own facilities before they let the US take it. Doing so would destroy a huge portion of the oil leaving the strait. They will never back down anymore than anyone in the US would back down if we were invaded and held hostage. We have paid reparations in most conflicts we have been in. Who do you think provided the money to rebuild Japan after WWII? And most every conflict since.

nunchyabeeswax

Not just their home, but also the home of other nation states through the Arabian's Peninsula's history. Iran only holds one side of the chokepoint. The other is owned by the current polity of Oman. Moreover, ever since the end of WWII, all the nations of the world had a guaranteed "Freedom of the Seas" - commercial ships are free to travel even in territorial waters so long as they are purely commercial and in transit. That was perhaps the number 1 guarantee to global order - most regional and global wars before WW1 involved access to the seas to one degree or another. This idiotic confrontation between three powers has likely changed the security architecture the world has used for 80 years. Art of the Deal.

Stunning-Dig-8916

Just a reminder that the last 7 major wars since WWII all hit the bottom within the first 10% of the conflict.

McKoijion

The "Board of Peace" is the most genocidal organization since WWII.

strutt3r

Never stopped the US historically. More bombs were dropped on North Korea than all munitions in WWII put together. Even more bombs were dropped on Laos. "National Security" just means private enterprise's unimpeded extraction of profit

Key_Lifeguard_8659

If he's the first president to use nukes since WWII, pretty sure he can drop any hope of getting his Nobel Peace Prize. He'll still have his base though. They'll never quit him.

ProofByVerbosity

Ground troops won't change shit. Its a huge country with a challenging terrain. Every U.S. ground mission has failed and this wpuld be likely thier biggest challenge since WWII

ZooZooChaCha

He is just vain enough to be upset the only president to get to hit the red button was a Democrat. REALLY wants to be the first one to do it since WWII.

WrexyWrex

I talked to a guy who was in WWII last month. He was 99 years old. He told me all about his life like he remembers arriving in Italy after Pearl Harbor. This guy was 99 years old and both his parents died in their 50s. He said both of his parents would have lived way longer with the medical advancements we have today. There is no precedent for people living this long, and we aren't paying attention to how the mind is deteriorating. Just because these ghouls are walking around doesn't mean we should be taking their advice.

Ancient-Swordfish292

The allies firebombed entire cities in WWII. Cities with people in them, who burned alive. After the war ended, Curtis LeMay, who ordered a bunch of this, said, "If we had lost the war, we would have been tried as war criminals."

karuchkov

I mean yeah sure, and im not suggesting anyone try to time the market. But jesus christ the world is in an unpresidented place right now. The entire world order thats been at play since WWII has collapsed.

Boomer_With_Dementia

The world is working around it's 🥭 problem. Zelensky has made security deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar and Syria. He has met with Erdogan of Turkey. Italy, France, Spain, and the UK are working hard to avoid being seen as on our side in this conflict so that they can negotiate reasonably for access to goods and oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. China as a customer and obviously some providers have been executing oil transactions in Yuan instead of dollars. France has sided with with Russia and China against us in the security council. Not that France overall loves Russia or China, but there are points of agreement. The gulf states have learned that US guarantees of security ring hollow vs cheap drones. What this means for investing? In a recession everything drops so maybe cash gang for now. If there is some stability in the future then non US defense stocks, gold. Gold for the erosion of the dollar system. Defense stock for the end of the post WWII world order. As for mid level countries that have resources and decent economies, in North America I suspect multinationals are more likely to invest there rather than here. If the US stabilizes and our relationship with Canada stabilizes then they get the benefit of access to our market. If not, well at least they will have Canada. Developing here directly is to risky given 🥭 chaos. I assume we are seeing the development of alliances and arrangements to work around the US in all ways, financial and defense wise.

Candid_Payment_4094

The US hasn't won a true war since WWII lol (war wasn't declared in the Gulf war)

Purple-Coyote-6122

I fear the peace we have had since WWII is about to come to an end. US is in decline, dollar is wobbling, POTUS and his cronies are digging gold by the shovels at expense of regular folks and quite literally the creditworthiness of this country. Godspeed regards, pray we never live to see nuclear weapons going off.