WWII

loolem

I mean you’re also ignoring the threat of war and the decision of western nations to reshore manufacturing as a means of stabilising global supply chains in the event of that threat. Failure to do so would have serious consequences. Australia sold large amounts points of steel and pig iron to Japan before WWII that was then used against them during the war. I’m not saying I agree with these countries but it makes sense when looked at from that perspective.

AccomplishedRow6685

My grandpa fought in WWII. If he were alive he’d be over 100.

Appraiser_King

You correctly bet believing in US imperialism. The war will end, and Russia will be back in the US financial system. This is really what "victory" means for the US. What happened to investors of the major German companies after WWII? They were made whole.

stringtheory28

I see this is your first war and your reply shows me that you’re young and uneducated. There was collateral damage during our attempt to destroy Germany in WWII. Does that mean the allies were the bad guys?

redditsuxdeez

Probably not WWII

fkn_clownshoes

my grandparents did not fight in WWII for the SPY to be trading sideways. Simply unamerican

Seeders

Not really, that's kind of how geo politics work now. The world is small and everyone has allies with agreements to join wars should they be attacked. Any small conflict can quickly and easily become WWIII. WWII was called the phoney war for a long time before people realized the true scope.

I_Eat_Groceries

Turns out WWII is good for markets. Sorry 🌈🐻

rp2012-blackthisout

Futures up, oil down... WWIII is a bust like WWI and WWII.

neutralpoliticsbot

WWI = we won. WWII = we won. WWIII = we won. We cant stop winning boys.

Kentuxx

The chance of a draft isn’t likely for a multitude of reasons. Pre WWI and WWII the US didn’t really maintain the standing military we do now. Mainly because the founding fathers didn’t really think it was necessary, see 2nd Amendment. So the draft was needed to build up military to fight. Post WWII and the creation of NATO, America sort of needed to maintain a big military in order to man bases in NATO countries around the world. That coupled with the change in modern military tactics, you’re like fine. But, hey anything can happen!

Craigs1ist

Did Iran really go to war against Israel after Israel bombed Iranian consulate, or did Israel start the war against Iran? Now Israel will drag US to another war front ... Russia Ukraine, China Taiwan, Israel Palestine, and the now LATEST Iran v Israel. I think the Muslim countries had enough of the Western world hypocrisy. They have grown tried, and now it's either to die or to live victoriously. It might not end well for Iran, but neither will it for US. We can come out victorious but ... Let's just say UK was not #1 after the WWII even after winning.

daytradingguy

There is not a way to predict what the market will do. Markets often do well during wars. WWII 1939-1945. Dozens of countries destroyed, millions of soldiers and civilians killed around the world, nuclear bombs dropped…and the Dow went up 50%.

__Shadowman__

Only way this doesn't lead to WWII is with cooler heads-and this is not the right cast for that 😭

notapersonaltrainer

> the only reason Goldwood be valuable is when the world ends what’s the Internet would not exist. Why is gold doomsdaying always completely binary? At the height of WWII most of Europe still had banking, telephones/telegraphs, mail, energy, and other functioning networks. The internet has orders of magnitude more redundancies than those and was literally a DoD project designed to survive nuclear war. In fact, because most gold is centralized in a few major vaults it's actually more vulnerable than the internet going down everywhere. This leads to an interesting monetary theory discussion whether if you created an internet-only ledger that had had the same unforgeable scarcity of gold, but without the gold, how much monetary premium would it gain (ie Bitcoin).

fuckaliscious

Countries definitely collapse economically, Argentina in 2001 and Greece in 2012 - 2015. Certainly the US Debt hasn't been this high relative to GDP since the end of WWII.

TooBluForYou

People think this is another post-WWII Cold War Era but we are actually in the pre-WWIII Era. Scary.

Meadhead81

I don't disagree with anything of this. The 401K mention was purely to address that modern day, folks need to be more education and conscious of investing. Whereas back then you just thought "hey, I get a pension of X amount of my pay after X years" there wasn't a need for any further understanding of what is was, how it worked, and likely little thought to diversify outside of your pension and social security, which for some, was obviously a mistake. I agree we have a lot more access now vs then. I think every era or generation presents it's own pro's and con's so to speak but again, just generally speaking, the boomers and as others have pointed out , the silent generation (and I'm focused on the US here, not countries bombed to shit after WWII) had a very special boom and economy that they inherited.

Beautiful-Chair7206

The problem with trying to expose them to the truth is that it is already part of their belief system. At this point, most people will die on that hill then try to see a different point of view. I agree and disagree with your point on social media. Those companies are very much like any other company that works in media. Most of their revenue is based on ads. So newspapers print ads and social media has links that they get paid for based on how many people click on it. Articles are written by people who write them for the purpose of getting viewership and the editors print the ones that they think their viewers will read and hopefully see the ads and increase revenue. This is a rule to propaganda. Not that someone is printing some huge lie. They are printing what they think the people want and therefore, increase their bottom line. Once they have a certain amount of followers and they have gained an "honest" reputation, they can bend the truth. Or in some cases, just outright lie. Some people may fact check it and call them out for it, but most won't and will believe it to be truth. If they lie too much, their reputation is eventually tarnished and people lose interest and then the bottom line reflects this. Unless the viewers are in an echo chamber, in which their belief system is reinforced with bad information. The technology has been there since we had language. The Nazis used it during WWII before social media and it has been used throughout centuries by monarchies and religions to get people to pay taxes or lay down their lives for a purpose, whatever it may be. The name propaganda came from the Catholics during the 17th century but it was really utilized in the modern day by Edward Bernays. If you are interested, he wrote some very interesting books that I recommend. In my opinion, it's just understanding if you are being manipulated and/or being proactive about figuring out if someone is telling you the truth or not. Sadly, a lot of people do not take the time to do this for one reason or another. This is where I believe the government should step in and investigate these companies/people. The problem with this is that our government officials have lied so many times to the people, that the people don't believe the government. Plus, they use propaganda on us as well for their own narratives.

cheddarben

My grandfather had a pension from the Railroad. He worked (started shoveling coal into steam engines) for the railroad from WWII and retired in 1980 as an engineer. Grandma taught in the local school for many years, but eventually stayed home. How did he save? modest house in a super small town (that relied on the railroad). one car. vacations were a rarity. Still... despite what was considered a good union pension and SS, at the end the government took it all and he lived out his end days that way. For most people who live a fairly long time, healthcare will eat everything eventually.

z1lard

Boomers were born AFTER WWII, so no they don't remember those things.

notapersonaltrainer

2/3 of the planet was in rubble after WWII. So most boomers did not in fact have it good. American boomers built relative wealth essentially tooling the global reconstruction process. That was the historical anomaly. What changed is global economies became more uniformly industrialized. Life is far better for the totality of millennials. American millennials just have competition again. But an American McDonald's worker still makes like 2-4x what some Indian programmer makes instead of like 10x before.

Meadhead81

I didn't mean to have my comment come across that they had everything better. The endless boomer jokes and hate is kind of annoying to me at this point and at times, I feel more reflective of the woe is me whiney folks in the following generations. Every generation has it's struggles but I do think the boomers were "set up" more than any other recent generation. Those who capitalized, did extremely well, those who didn't, didn't, just like people in every generation. I think boomers just had some key legs up that most other gens didn't. They also benefited from things like unionization and powerful labor mixed with a post WWII economic boom, which kept wages high, opportunity open, the power dynamic of the elite more in check. Then they slowly either let us fall apart or actively "kicked the ladder out from under them" as folks say, by voting for their current interests, tax cuts, sustaining/protecting their wealth than thinking of what's best for future generations and more broadly beneficial to all those who aren't in their shoes.

NMAsixsigma

What is this? WWII? Oil isn’t that important when you have 100000 drones that can all be programmed as guided missiles. If someone wants to call us on our debt they will shut down the grid.

dougcurrie

Many remembered the Great Depression and WWII: food lines, growing your own food; make-work programs. Frugality was very important. Homes were 800 square feet; one car per family. Brown bag lunches. No designer coffees.

wsb-legatus-goodman

[JPMorgan’s Dimon warns inflation, political polarization, wars creating risks not seen since WWII](https://apnews.com/article/jpmorgan-chase-jamie-dimon-economy-wall-street-b43ef3442f30c26d16ae17df16752c0d)

bmeisler

Before WWII, the British pound was the world's reserve currency. "Sound as a pound," they'd say. The UK lost this status shortly after WWII, and it went to the US - part of the deal was with the Saudis, who agreed to accept only dollars for oil. China has been chipping away at this for years - they've been stockpiling gold, and getting countries like Russia and India and others to accept Renimbi (or is it Yuan? I forget which one is used for foreign transactions) for oil etc. If you want to know what would happen to the US if the $ lost its reserve status - take a look at what happened to the UK after WWII. Now, I'm not gonna go all Peter Schiff here - people have been saying the $ would lose reserve status ever since Nixon went off the gold standard - but it probably will happen sooner or later.

Broke4Life

WWII spoiled them....

Square_Radiant

I'm sure you believe that more war leads to less war, that Russia and the US represent different sides, that sending half a trillion in weapons was for the benefit of the Ukrainians and to keep them "alive" - I on the other hand am looking that the US has been involved in perpetual warfare since WWII (it might come as a shock, but not always as the 'benevolent protector' you imply them to be) and just like Russia, psychopaths continue to profit from making life on this rock more difficult, you want to live on a planet with scarce resources and authoritatian politics? You're going to get the world you want and you're going to drag the rest of us down into that hell with you - maybe then you'll realise how simple life on this planet could have been... Please spare me any of your other degenerate realisations.

lanjourist

Had a USA military personnel chat with me in Shinjuku a long time back—good fella, super tall, he gave me this tidbit. The top three causes of WWIII would be (3) Israel/Palestine (2) North Korea/South Korea, and (1) u/etheral3xp 's "black swan" event. If you ever play GO & remember the iron curtain tactic of WWII, it kind of makes sense. Not just talking about the possibility of war but a complete paradigm shift in the current world order which, to me brings up that Rhett Butler's quote about Empires in "Gone With The Wind". I'll let you search it out—but my advice—you should put an option (e) which is

JosephBeuyz2Men

The value of Star Wars (and most sci fi fantasy) is in the designs. Andor is a good WWII resistance thriller that I would not watch except the setting is lovely to look at. Dune has done great as well but it’s all because Villeneuve has a style; the story is kind of offputting and inappropriate.

Altruistic-Sense-593

The Japanese fought to the death in WWII, fast forward 80 years they put all that energy into blurred porn and anime 

krivik_zomber

More like sell your house, move to US, Turkey or GB and lie to your servants and slaves you had to abandon them because of cruel Zionists taking over the land. Watch them fight to death for the right to live on a property they never owned and never will believing one day they will have the right to return to it if they believe hard enough not willing to accept the real reason for their misfortune is their master making the wrong bet during WWII

Stoweboard3r

They’re trying to tell a WWII bond like a 2007 stock. They fucked, but tbh someone will buy it like a dumbass.

FragrantTadpole69

What significance do you think liquor has in a collapse or near collapse scenario? I read about the seige of leningrad during WWII, and it was reportedly a hot commodity in the city even though there was mass starvation and other issues to account for.

erlulr

Oh, I member your loyality from 39', cowardly impotents. And for whom your fought most of the WWII. I also member you getting cucked by your ruskie friends in one of the Sahel colonies last year, and running away from flilflop militas

Ray661

That’s not war economy though. War economy is rationed civilian products to allow for increased military production, a common example is Ford being forced to make tank parts instead of cars during WWII.

Ray661

The kind of economy we had during WWII is a perfect example of a war economy, but the literal definition is: “the organization of a country's production capacity and distribution during a time of conflict. A war economy must make substantial adjustments to its consumer production to accommodate defense production needs”, think ford being forced to make tank parts in WWII instead of cars. And I realize the chances are low, just discussing after reading more doomerism stuff

Realistic-Minute5016

Define "war economy", the odds of the United States ever going into a mode like that was seen in WWII is basically next to nil. We have been at war more often than not in the 79 years since the end of WWII and with nukes now part of the equation the odds of an absolutely massive conventional war is almost 0.

OrthoOtter

This dude really thinks the 70 year American post-war golden age is how the world actually works. Many such cases. People who only study post-WWII history haven’t studied history at all in my opinion. This entire period is an anomaly, a blip in time where endless money seems to fall from the Heavens.

dweeegs

STRONGEST BULL MARKETS IN HISTORY: 1) After WWII was over and we had the biggest economic expansion in the history of the world 2) The fall of the Soviet Union and roaring 90’s 3) Current: Fed Chairman said we were kinda done hiking maybe

MattieShoes

There are current retirees that started working during WWII.

StabSnowboarders

That’s true, but that’s close enough to WWII that Boeing hadn’t lost their way yet

lightning_whirler

>GDP is the productive capacity of a nation. Agreed. But debt can also be used to finance an increase in capacity. The best example of that since WWII was Biden's Infrastructure and Build Back Better (misnamed Inflation Reduction) bills. By increasing debt to force an increase in production through government spending he lowered the unemployment rate and drove up inflation.

PropulsionEngineer

Not more powerful. But the US might not fight if China goes into Taiwan like with Russia and Ukraine. Super powers understand the fine line before nukes end society and superpowers haven’t fought each other since WWII and the advent of the bomb.

AFWUSA

I grew up in a civil war town and loved seeing the re-enactments as a kid. My darkest gayest nerdiest desire as a big history nerd is to take part in a huge WWII reenactment one day. Some crazy ones on YouTube that look like a blast. Just running around the woods playing soldier pretending to kill Germans with loud guns. Sounds fun as hell but I would never let anyone know I was doing it.

AP9384629344432

# Assorted Weekend Commentary. Note that you can 'hide' or minimize a comment if the length annoys you. ## [Consumer Data from Mastercard](https://twitter.com/talmonsmith/status/1766232200469422470) for February 2024: > - Total retail sales (ex auto): up year-over-year, with online retail sales up more than +9.1% > - Online apparel sector: up +14.5% year-over-year > - Restaurant sector: up +6% year over year ## US versus European Productivity Growth - "New data released on Friday showed eurozone productivity fell 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while in the US it rose 2.6 per cent in the same period, separate data showed. Labour productivity growth in the US has been more than double that of the eurozone and UK in the past two decades". [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/Jq2WExU.png). Productivity is everything when it comes to long term economic growth! - "Output per hour worked, a standard measure of labour productivity, has grown more than 6 per cent in the US non-farm business sector since 2019, according to official data. That far outpaces the eurozone and UK, which have seen growth of around 1 per cent over the same period" - However, in fairness to the Europeans, let us applaud their innovation in regulation, fines, licensing, and windfall taxation! ## HCC - Reading the last earnings call transcript, worth pointing out that this is not a US-facing company. "Our sales by geography in the fourth quarter breaks down as follows; 56% into Europe, 16% into South America, 25% into Asia and 3% into the U.S. markets." - Found this [VIC writeup](https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WARRIOR_MET_COAL_INC/7803594120) from August 2023, when the price was at $41 (we're now 48% higher). At the time, they estimated a mid-30% dividend yield through 2024, since they would have more cash than is needed to service Blue Creek and would return them via special divvies rather than buybacks (which would cause their NOLs, i.e., tax deductions, to expire). Their mid case was a $58 per share FV. But this ignored Blue Creek. Their estimate is $30 per share value embedded in Blue Creek without assuming multiple expansion. So basically you buy that 'for free'. Multiple expansion (just a touch) then gets you to enormous upside on top of that. - Last quarter saw a pretty large 36% increase in headcount, but this is in part due to union workers returning + non-union replacements hired + new additions to prepare for Blue Creek. HCC had a major labor strike in 2021 due to the loss of previous benefits when Walter Energy went bankrupt and became HCC, and the company basically just waited them out and then got all the employees to return with no real concessions. (It's not a labor friendly company) - Based on Q&A, no reason to expect buybacks anytime soon, not until Blue Creek is at full steam. But you can probably expect more dividend payments. And some capital appreciation too. ## On META vs. TikTok ([FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/7db1c1b3-5a61-4dee-a922-ade8b9c77522)) - [App downloads now favoring Instagram](https://i.imgur.com/YUffpMx.png) - "Instagram’s monthly active users reached 1.47bn, with a rise of 13mn in the final quarter of 2023, according to Sensor Tower. TikTok’s active users reached 1.12bn, with a decline of 12mn in the final three months of last year." [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/vKKv3VL.png). - "However, TikTok continues to gain better engagement from its more than 1bn active users worldwide. Users spent an average of 95 minutes on TikTok in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 62 minutes on Instagram, 30 minutes on X and 19 minutes on Snapchat" ## UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024 ([link to summary report](https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html)). Some datapoints you might find interesting. - [Global equity market composition in 1899 versus today](https://i.imgur.com/VQ4hDbq.png) - [Global equity market composition over time](https://i.imgur.com/BtVrOts.png) since 1899. The 1950s-60s saw an even more US dominated global stock market, but this was in part due to the post-WWII destruction of Europe. And despite the enormous economic miracle in China, averaging 9.91% from 1970 to 2010, the equity returns have been awful. Economic growth != stock market growth. - "Markets at the beginning of the 20th century were dominated by railroads, which accounted for 63% of US stock market value and almost 50% in the UK. 124 years later, railroads have declined almost to the point of stock-market extinction, representing less than 1% of the US market and close to zero in the UK". [Graphic](https://i.imgur.com/rkJ3ckf.png). - But declining industries are not all bad: "Over the last 124 years, railroad stocks have beaten the US market, and outperformed both trucking stocks and airlines since these industries emerged in the 1920s and 1930s". It's interesting to see how some old technologies get ruthlessly stamped out and equity holders basically ruined, while others deliver stunning returns even a century later. - "Of the US firms listed in 1900, some 80% of their value was in industries that are small or extinct today; the UK figure is 65%." You can see how the UK stock market has a lot of 'old'-school industries. For example, over a century later, mining has remained roughly the same proportion of the UK's equity market. "Banking, insurance, [...] Food, beverages (including alcohol), tobacco, and utilities" + mining all persisted though in the UK, while textiles, iron, coal and steel were mostly relocated to the emerging world. - On Japan: "From 1900 to 1939, Japan was the world’s second-best equity performer. But World War II was disastrous and Japanese stocks lost 96% of their real value. From 1949 to 1959, Japan’s “economic miracle” began and equities gave a real return of 1,565% over this period." - Switzerland: "with just 0.1% of the world’s population and less than 0.01% of its land mass", it somehow has 2.4% of the global equity market!

reparative_finance

Interesting position. If I’m not mistaken, don’t they also issue a pretty hefty dividend to their investors? They’ve also been around since WWII as a business, so I’m not sure what you meant by they’re just getting started.

Birdhawk

Did...the S&P grow by over 100% during WWII or not? Nuclear proliferation has been progressing since 1945. Has the market grown since then or not? Did WWII pull America out of the Great Depression or not?

Ghost_Pains

Yeah idk if you learned anything about what happened in WWII but google “nuclear proliferation” and get back to us.

Syab_of_Caltrops

Biden: We're facing the most difficult times since WWII Biden 30 minutes later: We'll make the cable bill make sense!

shart_leakage

That’s why I’m so glad I inherited all of my great grandfather’s pre-WWII NVDA shares

Birdhawk

Bro haha ok bro cool. Ramped up military spending and contracts during conflicts don't exist I guess bro. The growth of the S&P from 1942-1946 (WWII), 1962-1969 (Vietnam), and 2003-2007 (Iraq/Afghanistan) is just a coincidence bro. Go ahead and hedge your future on a company on an island thats the center of geopolitical conflict bro. Bro its a good thing that the managers of big funds and billions in wealth are better at risk assessment than you are bro.

gopoohgo

If you asked for pictures of Nazis from WWII, they had a nice inclusive, diverse mix. It was hilarious.

Aggressive-Pace-596

all the Nazi gold poured into Argentina post WWII which is how its wealth skyrocketed which is why its population was foreign born and why its economy dwarfed Germany ... know your history. So, is your point that, Trump will make the US like Nazi Germany?

vegaseller

everyone is focused on NVDA and not even remotely focused on the US trying to confiscate russian assets to give to Ukraine. that would be the biggest shock to the international monetary system in 100+ years. The US didn't even confiscate assets from Germany/Japan during WWII, they were held in trust and managed by a gov entity until the end of the war. Everyone from the Chinese to the Middle Eastern sovereigns will be seeking to divest and that will push gold easily to 3,000/ounce.

AnotherDegenerateFK

WWII the sequel 

Sensitive_Pilot3689

My anoos soundin like WWII with these bombs 💣 and machine gun fire 🔥

292ll

Hey everyone the German’s surrendered, WWII is over!

LIGHTNINGBOLT23

> its how we won ww2 on the east front The US never participated in the Eastern Front. You're thinking of the Pacific War. Completely different theatres of WWII.

devereaux

GDP is being kept afloat by massive Federal deficit spending. The only two times it's ever been higher as a % of GDP was during part of the pandemic and during WWII

SpongEWorTHiebOb

Is that the WWII POW survivor flick or the one with Bruce Willis after he did the sixth sense? All my TV and movie stock plays are getting jumbled and mixed up…lol. What’s the ticker?

Gatensio

That depends. AI models have been in use in many industries for a long time. But those are small purpose specific models that do not cost 700k daily like ChatGPT and are much more accurate. These are useful AI models and they are used in your daily life whether you are aware of them or not. And they will continue to expand to other uses. This AI craze however, is built upon LLMs and image generators that, while being an impressive achievement, still can't replace humans and cost a bazillion dollars to run and make little money. Charlatans like Sam Altman have been selling that these transformer models (that's the name of the models under LLM) are the key to Artificial General Intelligence, like the AIs we see in sci-fi like Halo's Cortana for instance. The truth is that we are still very very far from achieving that. We don't know how the brain works beyond a very basic level. How does a child reach conclusions that contradict what it's taught? No one knows. We do know however, that it is an introspective process. Every human takes some input from the world, abstracts them and then by thinking iteratively, reaches conclusions. These AI models can't even replicate that process. They are giant stochastic parrots, models designed to take an input and produce a desired output in a finite number of steps. All they say and do is determined by the training data and if anything asked is not in there, god knows what will come out. By virtue of being large and complex, these models generalize their training far beyond what we had years ago, but are still very far from generalizing like a human. This is a huge known problem with no solution, so to "solve" it they are fed text and data that would take a human 1000 years to process all. When that fails, they chop the model into smaller ones to adapt them to each task. It's an Herculean overfitting task and yet Gemini, when asked for a picture of a WWII nazi soldier, will output a black woman with a Swastika in the helmet. But no matter, once this pops because there is no more cash to burn, dudes like Altman will retire with a compensation of like 1000 billion dollars.

Sunny-Olaf

Time and tide wait for no man so does stock market. the stock market already climbed back to pre-war level 2 years before the end of WWII and 15% higher at WWII.

AJDillonsThirdLeg

Bro have you heard of that WWII torture technique 

BoltActionRifleman

WWII in colour.

DingleTheDongle

yeah, that's literally what all of these so called investing genius' did. buffett was also the son of an investor and senator. he's a nepo baby that decided to diamond hands instead of coke his way up one side of nebraska and whore his way down the other. wanna have some fun math: donald trump was appointed president of his father's business by his father in 1971. the average price per square foot of property was went from $8 to $45 between WWII and then. ppsf went from $45 to $1200 in the same amount of time after. [source](https://www.elikarealestate.com/blog/tracing-buying-real-estate-new-york-past-100-years/) these assholes were born with a platinum spoon in their mouths and made sure we were eating hand to mouth. neutron jack welch popularized the rank and yank corporate employment model. if you know someone fired or put on a PIP due to productivity, that was from him. these generations have done more to make our daily lives a living hell more than other group of people in our nations history besides the bastards that did the 3/5ths compromise and electoral college

CaptainArcher

Agreed x1000, glad to hear someone else that also feels that way about him. I suggest people read up his backstory, I've studied a few billionaires on my own time to learn how they came to be Warren Buffet comes from a family of very successful business people. His grand daddy was a successful grocery store owner and excessively frugal dude that passes those traits down the bloodline. Then his father started a stock investing firm and was a politician in the house of representatives. He was very fortunate to come from a family of business owners, and was introduced to the stock market, super young and at an amazing time in American history post-WWII.

dekusyrup

>almost all cases All cases since at least WWII

_NERMAN_

That man was born in the depression. You'll never know what that man experienced. Freaking WWII as a child. Better put some respect on gramps

natemanos

Many people think low-interest rates are “stimulative” and high rates are “restrictive” and that's a myth, built on narrative post-GFC. Inflation was low because the economy wasn't doing that great and you can see this in Western countries' decrease in real GDP post-2008. Compare GDP from 1960-2008 and 2008 to 2023 and you will see a decrease in the average growth rate. Now this may not make people happy; QE is not money printing but because many believe this is the case they bought assets assuming governments were printing money like mad, which is why QE was done post-2008 in America. Copying the Japanese in never bothering to fix the broken economy (monetary system). The difference between Venezuela and America is that there is a massive demand for US debt because it's used as collateral for global transactions. They aren't buying the debt because they are happy with the fact that the American government debt is out of hand, but because that's how banks were designed post-WWII. To use treasuries as collateral for transactions & to hold currency pegs. Even when things are built outside of the US things are priced in US dollars and the debt is paid back in US dollars (creating external demand for US dollars). Look at China's BRI and see how they price their debts. When a country without external demand for its debt takes on massive amounts of debt it changes the currency exchange rate which causes “inflation”. I don't think the opposite is occurring now, just that debt hasn't been repriced at the new levels of interest rates so there are zombie companies with big debt burdens that are yet to file for bankruptcy. They also have the rates locked for 3-5 years like CRE in the US which is only now starting to show signs of stress. A lot of the issues in South America started during the Latin American debt crisis which was due to holding US-denominated debt that they couldn't repay due to the increase in costs of goods in US dollar terms (inflation) This is also a good lesson today, as the US increasing the interest rate increases other countries' debt burden that's denominated in US dollars and why you're seeing issues of technical recessions and just outright recessions occurring in Europe, the UK, and even Asia. Other issues are resulting in this too but there are elements that are parallel to the same issues faced during the Latin American debt crisis.

Stinger1066

I've made money swing trading RR in the past. Don't own any currently. My father worked for RR for 25 years, both during and after WWII. I was born in Derby. American Airlines was a big customer in the mid-60s, and they hired my Dad for his RR engine maintenance expertise. We packed up and moved to the US when I was 7.

grip_n_Ripper

This is the most likely outcome by far. The way I see it, Trump gets elected, US stops giving two shits about Ukraine, Zelensky sues for peace under any conditions, Ukraine gets split in two just like Germany after WWII, the (much) bigger Russian controlled part gets a puppet president for life a'la Lukashenko in Belarus. It would be super hilarious if Aristovich gets that job. That's all, nothing to see here, folks, move along.

bionicjoe

Bullshit 1. This is a story about jewelry which is always absolute horseshit designed to sell shiny things to women. 2. Anything with this many different stones would be incredibly hard to source prior to WWII much less centuries ago.

jazzmagg

We're overdue the bubble bursting. What did the charts look like just before WWII..?

Heavy_Pumpkin6853

I think Elon FAFOd on the antisemitism thing and people are a little tired of hearing about him. Most millenials and gen x grew up learning extensively about the holocaust and WWII. Tesla badly needs to invent new products. All the money went to them because people used to think he was the new Steve Jobs or Thomas Edison. A new EV under 25k or even 20k MSRP or some kind of crazy home appliance.

Avocado-booty

Interesting it’s where the original Space program was started in the US after WWII. (Lead by Nazis)

spicesickness

This is the US saying fuck all that globalization shit we been pushing since WWII and bringing home key industries we can’t trust Asia with.

Solar_Nebula

We have a lot of consumer goods production here; we make our own food, paper products, chemicals. Not sure about medical devices. America's natural resources are legendary; we produce our own food, lumber, metal ore, oil, and so on. I really wonder about our ability to produce mass amounts of refined steel/aluminum domestically, but there's some government support in place--tariffs on steel and aerospace subsidies/NASA spending high-grade alloys. I don't think we could rebuild the WWII fleet in half a decade if it came to it, but I'm not sure we'd need to either. Chips are really the odd man out on this one, and they're finally working on it.

Ok_Wear_5391

Nah, that’s just status quo foreign relations. We can’t compare any of that to WWI and WWII. Definitely all being played to enrich the few for sure though but thankfully not meat cannons for them yet.

Sledgahammer

The man has started more theaters than Germany in WWII and if you're not paying attention, then I sincerely hope you don't have a stake in TSLA. You will get burned. \- Corporate war with sponsors *(directly from his mouth rather then proxy news)* \- Corporate war with Disney & subsidiaries *(directly from his mouth rather then proxy news)* \- Political war with Biden & Democrats *(green energy party & EV vehicle buyers)* \- Political war with select US Republicans *(mostly non-maga affiliates)* \- Political war with media outlets *(no benefit, but makes enemies)* \- Openly pushes that Ukraine should give up and be conquered *(directly & indirectly)* \- Openly pushes controversial conspiracy theories daily \- Openly political daily *(isolates half of American consumers; name me other MAG7 CEOs who shitpost political memes daily).* \- Openly lies on X daily *(usually for no reason other then ego)* \- Twitter purchase and his defense of that by reposting fan-made statistics rather then reporting the actual numbers *(deflection & insecurity)* \- Cringelord (*need I say more)*

FEMA_Camp_Survivor

The Great Depression seems to have enabled a new crop of people to attain wealth and power in America and elsewhere. WWII also happened.

BiznessCasual

Bers that have been getting their cheeks viciously clapped for over three months celebrating one red morning like they just won WWII.

ShittyStockPicker

For what it's worth, I think you missed out. I think the global world order that America enforced is about to unravel, and we will never have the kind of economic growth and prosperity we had post-WWII through the point China invades Taiwan. You don't get to decide which times you live in, only what to do with the times given to you. - Loosely paraphrased from Gandalf.

divided_capture_bro

How does the distribution change over time?  1927-12-30 was a long time ago so my worry is all the known bad tail events and aftershocks since then (literally everything WWII forward). In other terms, is it a tail event or has the distribution shifted?

itsverynicehere

Around 2000 soldiers died in combat in Afghanistan. That sucks, not saying anyone should die in war but you'd have seen that many people die in about 20 minutes of WWII.

ROC_armed_forces

$pins is in a smooth bowl shaped pattern that's about to moon. I just logged into my account after several years and somehow they knew that I like WWII German airplanes and filled the front page with it. And they have several big brands' ads on the front page. I will go in $2k of calls tomorrow.

Effective_Opposite12

How long do you think it stays that way? When the war is over all is forgotten. Look at Germany after WWII. From bumfucked and bombed to economic wonder in less than 10 years. You can’t honestly believe that Russia won’t weasel their way out of this.

KillTheRivianDumper

The only reason why the USA was rich in the first place was the post WWII situation of a world totally destroyed except America left alone to make everything for everyone. This is the same scenario. Stocks going up for 20 years.

ThisKarmaLimitSucks

We spent a WWII's worth of federal debt since 2009, about a third of which was straight money-printed, and got exactly shit for it. If anyone wants to know why the wheels seem like they're falling off society, that is a good place to start.

GayGay-Akutami

This is a larger and grander war than WWII. This time we're killing the poors.

BorgMeBro

The BEST it has been since WWII 

-TotallyLiquid-

This graph is outdated, the debt to GDP ratio is even higher now, it passed the WWII record a while ago. The other problem is the US went from supporting millions of service men during WWII to those service men becoming a source of income for the government in the late 40's as they were demobilized and found jobs back in the US. There's going to be a similar effect but probably much smaller now as pre covid unemployment levels were already achieved but spending hasn't decreased so far and there's no way of it dropping by anywhere near post WWII levels.

captcsha

You meant the WWIII D/G ratio on par with WWII

stankpuss_69

Wanna know why debt went down after WWII? This is why. https://preview.redd.it/gzu8clkgjzgc1.jpeg?width=838&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6cd7832b8339c7376f71dec87837a3cf1bfdfc0c The problem with boomers is that they did two things to accomplish the American dream: * They voted for politicians to cut their own taxes * they voted for politicians to cut corporate and all business taxes What did that yield? Money for wars, infrastructure maintenance (not replacement) as well as entitlements and people living much longer - all paid through massive borrowing. Where exactly did boomers think the money to pay for their lifestyles would come from? The day of financial reckoning is now.

SchrodingersCat6e

>What's the title of your Ted talk? Is it "inside the mind of a grifter"? You aren't nearly as slick as you think you are. I prefer to maintain a higher discourse, and not insult you. I hope that you use this as a growing opportunity. My main point is that as minimum wage rises, so does the cost of producing everything because labor is a component of the inputs. Dismissing capital contribution as exploitative or advocating for universally high minimum wages without regional flexibility oversimplifies the challenges. Economic prosperity and social equity are achieved through a combination of policies that support innovation, education, fair labor practices, and responsible governance, recognizing the diverse needs and contributions of all economic participants. Your main point hinges on the notion that contributing capital is inherently exploitative or indicative of a "grifter" mentality. However, this view oversimplifies the dynamics of business operations. Capital investment is a form of risk-taking that enables businesses to start, expand, and innovate. This investment supports the creation of jobs and services that wouldn't exist otherwise. The symbiosis between capital and labor is foundational to economic development, allowing individuals to leverage their strengths—be it financial resources or skills and labor. The assertion that the introduction of minimum wage under FDR led to a period of prosperity overlooks other significant factors, such as post-WWII economic conditions, technological advancements, and educational expansion. Prosperity involves a complex interplay of policies, market dynamics, and societal changes. Furthermore, a rigid minimum standard without consideration for regional cost variations and economic conditions can lead to unintended consequences, such as reduced employment opportunities for low-skilled workers or increased automation. The argument that living in rural areas is a choice parallel to employment choices simplifies the complex socioeconomic factors influencing individuals' decisions. For many, living in rural areas is not merely a choice but a matter of heritage, family ties, or financial necessity. Similarly, businesses in rural areas often serve essential needs and contribute to the local economy. The viability of a business should not be solely judged on its ability to pay wages comparable to urban counterparts, as this fails to account for the diversity of economic ecosystems. Your food is grown in rural areas. The critique of corporate priorities as solely focused on shareholder returns does not account for the broader responsibilities many companies undertake, including employee welfare, community engagement, and sustainable practices. Government intervention, through minimum wage legislation or other means, is one tool among many to address income inequality and ensure fair wages. However, such interventions need to be balanced with considerations for economic vitality, job creation, and the diverse needs of different regions and industries.

KMKtwo-four

> It is the global reserve currency be cause of its stability After WWII we needed to agree on a reserve currency and the U.S. won because we had a lot of international political capital at that time.  I agree with you that it’s stable. It took a world war and a new world order to set it up, that’s probably what it would take to change it.  https://www.npr.org/2022/03/09/1085605288/the-dollar-at-the-center-of-the-world-classic

ChooChooTheElf

Post WWII was because of the destruction of the destruction of physical capital, torn down alliances, the Allies installing new governments in the Axis countries, and the beginning of the end of formal colonization/imperialization. Today the turmoil outside the US it seems like the crisis is because of commodity prices, supply shocks, and the loss of investor confidence. I don’t get the same vibe.

Retrovex

Cramer wants Boeing to go back to WWII Wartime airframe production

Kurso

Because while the fed is trying to slow things down the federal government is still spending like a drunken sailor. Gov spending to GDP ration is still out of whack. Only times it's been higher is WWII, housing crisis and peak of COVID.