ASTS

Any_Possible3003

Surprisingly it’s a lot more nuanced than 2 seconds of braindead pondering. For anyone that’s interested, there’s a few things that separate them from SpaceX or other competitors. 1). It was built on first principles for broadband direct to cell phones. Large phased arrays to compensate for the tiny antenna on cell phones. Current iteration are 2,400 sq. Ft compared to Starlinks 6 sq ft. Antenna array. I think v2 may be around 25 sq ft? They need starship to began launching those though. 2). Spectrum, ASTS will have lowband/midband and C-band layers. Starlink may eventually attempt to service Lowband but they will need larger arrays. Lowband spectrum penetrates much better through trees/windows etc. it’s an important piece of the puzzle. 3). Spectrum and partnerships. They go hand in hand, ASTS was just awarded 1 billion USD by the Japanese government to develop their sovereign shell through a JV with Rakuten. ASTS has access to a significant amount of spectrum through its MNO partnerships that a competitor could not just go out and buy. 4). Countries all over the world have been pretty forthcoming that they do not want a foreign company having control over their countries data. ASTS is bent pipe and all traffic is routed through carrier MNO network, Starlink is regenerative and all data is routed through them. This is a non starter for most of the world, which is why ASTS was the only company to apply for J-LEO in Japan. 5). Starlink also is a direct competitor with MNO’s in home broadband and have publicly stated their intent for a standalone mobile network, even if countries were done giving Starlink their data…MNO’s won’t be fine handing over their customers to a new competitor on a silver platter. ASTS has the better, 1st principles tech, and business model for d2c, IMO.

Playful_Fun_9073

Celsius and Elf Beauty. Jeremy Lefebvre on YouTube got me into em. I am heavy into ASTS but am building a nicely sized CELH and ELF positions. I don’t marry any stock, I get my gains and then trim and set stop losses just in case they fall back down, which they often do. I like to be out before then. ASTS I am waiting until they build the constellation and monetize it and holding that bitch for a long long time for better or for worse.

PatrickWhelan

It's crazy people are saying ASTS all over this thread - they have 10 satellites in orbit. The whole D2D pitch is either (1) not going to be practical due to spectrum and regulatory hurdles OR (2) absolutely gonna get eaten by SpaceX (and maybe Amazon). They're gonna light money on fire producing Sats and paying out the nose for Launch, continue to fail to hit every date (like almost every other Space company) and enter a market that doesn't exist or has been rolled over by SpaceX. It's a greater fool play at a tenth the price they trade at today and people, let alone at its current insane valuation

DufflebagJoe

ASTS subreddit is claiming fair value is $2000 a share lol

Flexlex724

Spent the week out in GNP this week and thought it would be nice if you could get satellite service for weeks at a time just to get directions and hikes and shit. Then I was like oh yeah ASTS is gonna do exactly that. Totally see a market for this.

CRAZYJOEDAVOLA90

Starlink doesn’t exist in 160 countries with D2D broadband which the MNOs pushing for. Starlink with a dish exists but that’s not even ASTS market. Also those deals were long before USA and Musk betrayed their allies around the world which was a wake up call. There is a reason why there is a JV in USA, EU and soon Japan with ASTS. There is also a reason why T-Mobile haven’t renewed their exklusive contract with SpaceX which will run out in July (they will soon join ASTS). Is the only reason the better tech or is it something else? I think Starlink, ASTS and Amazon will all have their own cakes. The space is big for all 3. And even FCC wants that as well. But ASTS is in a good position if MNOs wants to survive and countries doesn’t want oligarchs to own them.

finebushlane

I'm just putting out the information that is publicly out there and also what I personally know about how these kinds of investments are done. "Strategics" investing in small companies as a bet is incredibly common (ask Claude about it). Companies like NVidia invest in fuck loads of smaller businesses even when they know most of them will go bankrupt or otherwise not exist in 10 years. They do it because it doesn't cost them much and it could be worth it for optionality or defensive reasons in the future. When you look at the amounts invested versus the size of the companies its a meaningless amount. Also, the Japanese government HAS NOT invested 1B into ASTS, you've read the deal wrong if you think that's what's happening. Here is what the deal is: It's a government subsidy to a Japanese project entity led by Rakuten, a domestic joint venture, not an equity investment in ASTS stock or balance sheet. ASTS only benefits indirectly. The joint venture will buy satellites/capacity from AST, but none of that money goes to ASTS as capital and it's also over three years. ALSO, the whole point of this deal was to reduce the dependency on Starlink. The only other tender for this government program was Starlink itself! So given the whole point of the program was to reduce the government dependency on Starlink, there was basically no option but to choose ASTS! Another side point, just because a government picked a provider which bid for a program has no relevence as to whether it ends up working. In fact, governments have an incredibly BAD track record when it comes to stuff like this. Japan is basically buying an OPTION on unproven communication sovereignty.

Allentw

They don’t need to invest cash to have vested interested. Like you said, it’s a hedge against spacex and spacex has the real potential to disrupt the telecommunications markets, meaning their existing business could go away without responding properly. These MNOs have stated they will use ASTS to supplement existing terrestrial coverage. You think they will look to sign up ASTS without doing their DD?

Critical-Future-1560

ASTS too the moon and beyond

Nice-Classic-6221

ASTS is undervalued

DrestinBlack

ASTS and RKLB Now. If only LUNR could remember the space race is on …

Prestigious_Suit_202

you guys ever heard of this little company called ASTS? 🤌🏻

finebushlane

For sure bro, it's going to be interesting to watch. I'm not a hater, but I do think ASTS is over-valued right now, so I wouldn't run it and buy a ton of stock. I think there are better companies to invest in which are safer at the moment. That said, if you want to gamble on ASTS, it could work out well... but it's definitely not some sure thing, that's for sure.

finebushlane

Look at the details of the deals and look at the actual revenue of ASTS, this is the big reveal. The "deals" are all structured as convertible notes, loans that turn into stock based on certain contingencies. None of these companies have given ASTS any money yet, look at their revenue! So Vodafone, Verizon have done these really small deals (compared to the size of Vodafone and Verizon, which are basically just defensible plays. I.e. If ASTS actually works, they will have rights to use it, but the actual amount of money at play is peanuts. Essentially these carriers are using ASTS as a defensive play against T-Mobile which has a deal with SpaceX. So T-Mobile can say, "We can serve all the US, even the random deserts and in the middle of a forest". Should ASTS pan out, it means Verizon and Vodafone etc, can say the same thing. If ASTS doesn't workout, it doesn't matter much as the agreements were only valid if the tech actually works and the amounts of money are tiny for these companies anyway. Anyway, the carriers have carefully avoided committing to buy capacity at scale before seeing it work. Which is exactly my point.

reupped

The bear case is execution and timeline as you're hinting at. ASTS has 5 sats in orbit targeting 20+ for continuous service, and they're dependent on launch partners (Blue Origin, SpaceX, ISRO) who all have their own schedules. At 2026 run-rate revenue of \~$20M and a $10 billion plus market cap, you're paying for 2029 numbers today. If they hit, the price moves in your favor. If a launch slips 12 months, the stock gets cut in half before the thesis changes.

winterrules91

89.60 is my average. I've had a fun ride with ASTS. First bought at 72 and sold at 98 (pre-blow-off). Then I bought back after the initial dip at 123 LOL. Averaged down since then to 89.60. I added way more aggressively after the Blue Origin disaster and ASTS re-affirming their launch guidance.

Green_Marten

Not really. You cannot compare the L-Band spectrum from Iridium with the L- and S-band from ASTS. Further ASTS is using licensed other frequencies from partners. The combination of different frequencies gives ASTS the capability for high speed Telecommunication. The 9 MHz L-Band from Iridium as standalone is great for text and voice but definitely not more. The big thing is the worldwide license of the Iridium spectrum. There is no discussion about rights world wide. This makes it perfect for ships, planes, military and science. The ASTS spectrums are not globally 100% clear. They need to make contracts etc. This is no big deal if you address the markets you want to get in but not the right one for Emergency, military etc… Many people compare Iridium Spectrum with ASTS spectrums but it is too different and both have different usage.

Green_Marten

It is exactly how you wrote it. Big win, or big loss. I say ASTS is a binary bet. Not saying 50:50 but the one or the other. This is the main reason why I am well positioned in RKLB and only holding a bit ASTS. But let’s not start ASTS vs. RKLB. Both communities are so strong believers it just makes no sense. Also because the one is a space stock and the other a telecommunication stock. They are much more different than many people think.

RedutHatesFreeSpeech

How exactly does ASTS not have a niche customer group? Why would I pay for this when I already have perfect 5g signal everywhere I go? Why would I not just continue to buy an esim for just the month I travel?

finebushlane

Investors investing money in totally bogus ideas has happened for a long time. Some of the biggest/"smartest" investors invested in Theranos, Enron, and Nikola, which all ended up being complete scams. A huge amount of money invested is simply due to FOMO and other investors going first. People assume someone else did the due diligence so they just get lazy and invest themselves. I repeat, all of ASTS's tests are public information, due your own research here. Hell, ask Claude to research for you if you don't want to. Ask whether ASTS has proven 1000s of people can simultaneously get sustained high data rates on their satellites.

xBeoulve

Considering that Japan just decided to spend close to 1 billion on Rakuten/ASTS… I think they must have some pretty strong proof that the satellites work on a large scale.

KeythKatz

I get 30GB of international roaming per year and much more regionally in addition to virtually limitless local data for $8 a month, but then I'm not from a country with backward telcos. That said, ASTS has nothing to do with international roaming. Base stations are still handled by local telcos and the spectrum is owned by them, space satellites aren't going to change how telco agreements work.

CRAZYJOEDAVOLA90

Europe is big. Ofc some countries relies on SpaceX. But in the future don’t be surprised if there is a better option and safer that some will change. I don’t say that ASTS will have it all. I don’t think any company will own everything. Space is big. ASTS is a US company. They build the sats and the tech. The difference is that AST share spectrum with the MNOs (they have their own as well) like Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, Orange, Raktuten etc. The MNOs keep their data and customers and gets to use the sats in the orbit while SpaceX wants to own it all. They want to own the sats, the spectrum, the data, they want the power to use the data. Essentially kill the MNOs and make every customer use Starlink. They even talked about a SpaceX phone. Read what Rakuten and ASTS gets with the JV they are making. ASTS will get 900m. They will produce the sats for them. They will use Japans Mitsubishi Rocket to put it in orbit. Rakuten and Japan will own these sats and use them have they want when they orbit over Japan and when sats is above, let’s say USA, they will be used for Verizon and AT&T customers. Many other JV will do the same thing imo. Also Grain will chose ASTS as a partner the coming months now when they got 800mz spectrum they needs to use.

Mister__Mediocre

If their business proves as profitable as the market would like to believe, SpaceX will surely enter the market, catch up in a few years and eventually outcompete them. Their moat is very penetrable, especially by a well funded, more agile opponent. I don’t see any version of events where this space is very profitable and at the same time ASTS is the number one player. Also, I think the demand is overstated. I have mint and i have practically perfect internet except a few days while travelling. The problem is that for most people with money, internet is already a solved problem, so they’ll see no need to pay a premium for this. There is a niche demand I agree, but it’s not that big a niche.

Comfortable_Flow5156

ASTS will be $1000 a share.. IT will be a wild ride but HODL.... NVDA went through the same thing with far worse CRASHES

Coclesano

1- TEM 2- ASTS 3- AXTI & SMR (tie)

Unusual-Lie8889

Just remembered ASTS fanboys thinking the stock would be at 130+ after J-LEO contract and some morons bought at peak during overnight. I'm glad I could never reach this level of delusion.

Interesting-Ad-1291

My point is that ASTS is quite literally reliant on SpaceX as of now. They are also literal competitors in ASTS's largest business that they are agressively trying to expand. I can't see a future where SpaceX begins to prioritize their own success and reserves more spots on launches for their own satelites than that of their competitor.

wildcat1055

He forgot to say "ASTS will take us to the moon!"

EmbarrassedKoala3982

wait first of all, you said my calculation is wrong because i am assuming 24/7 usage, but I am not. Then you say the calculation is applicable to any cell carrier, ok if it is then the calculation is correct and logical? where is it wrong. i feel like you are the one proving my point? no matter, if you or any ASTS bull can provide a calculation to show that their satellites can actually support broadband for the average then I will concede, but none as far as i know.

EmbarrassedKoala3982

take a step back, yes i am talking about every concurrent user. ignore the every possible user active user thing, i meant them as the same thing. Plus I literally am using active user in my calculation. Who in their right mind would divide by every possible user and not active, did I do that in my calculation? No. I think this A.I. slop post is confusing us both, this is why i hate these type of posts which adds to the confusion with no calculation to back it up. ok, but no one is providing a calculation to show they can run broadband. If I can provide a simple calculation to show the logical issues I have with their speeds, a serious ASTS investors that thinks Im wrong will be able to provide a calculation of their own to show their satellites can provide broadband, and not just taking the ASTS managements word for it. I have yet to see a logical calculation to prove this. You can talk about supplemental coverage all you want but my issue is with the service not being broadband, which is > 35 mbps. Although even if it can reach > 5 mbps i will change my stance.

Playful_Fun_9073

I don’t listen to analysts. I bought nothing but Palantir when A.I. first started to become a mainstream topic but PLTR was not yet on the news. Then they called it a consultancy. Fuck analysts. I got out of that trade before the music stopped, I bought it for a year straight and sold it all near the top. Now I buy nothing but ASTS. Joint venture with all major telecommunications giants plus the department of defense. I see a future where all our allies and the United Nations utilize these satellites as well as getting cell phones into the hands of people all over the world that previously had no cell service or very poor cell service. My tea leaves read that ASTS will be critical and indispensable infrastructure and relied upon for military operations, disaster relief, and consumer use. Starlink does not scare me, not after I missed AMD. Too obvious, so I missed it. I only catch obscure stuff like PLTR and ASTS it seems and only right before the inflection point after several major catalysts so the parabolic move showers me in profits yet leaves me needing to find the next stock. Would be nice to get into one of these in the single digit or low double digit share price one day and retire. Check out AST Spacemobile Podcast and ask artificial intelligence to explain the business and the stock to you. The guy running this company already built and sold a previous satellite company for 550 million dollars. We are getting this fucking constellation up there and it will not be raped by Starlink. Ask yourself why Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Vodafone, a bunch of other smaller carriers, Japan, and the department of defense are all up in AST Spacemobile? Why not Starlink only? It’s going to fucking rip. I put $50k in and over the next year I will drizzle another $50,000 in every 2 weeks. I am buying every dip as well, with whatever I can. I would rather set a hundred grand on fire than risk missing this opportunity as it is obvious to me and I like that it is misunderstood by others and is seen as speculative and risky and scary. More money for me.

grumpyterrier

Mine are boring AVUV VXUS VTI But the ones I’m excited to see are TWST, ARKK, RKLB, ASTS

octopus_serenader

Sorry for being cranky, just didn't realize some out there didn't know the strength of ASTS on that very specific point. It could still flop, but theres a reason lots of folks have high conviction.

F2PBTW_YT

ASTS has negative PE and economic spread of -50% - It's even destroying 50% of their invested capital.

SuleyGul

Just looking at the chart it looks like it is being heavily distributed right now with the sharp overlapping price action. Classic distributive behaviour. Even if ASTS is a great success in the future it doesnt mean it cant drop 90+% from here before moving up in the future.

CarpoLarpo

Same field? Because "space"? Lmao You didn't even know that SpaceX and ASTS weren't competing until I explained to you, and you still seem to not fully understand what the companies even do. Besides, money itself cant solve engineering problems. Blue Origin is a fantastic example of that with Bezos dumping tens of billions of dollars over nearly 3 decades with essentially nothing to show for it. Assuming SpaceX will somehow make better tech than ASTS overnight just because $$$ and vibes sounds pretty ignorant. If it was that easy China would have better RAM for their stealth jets and Blue Origin would have rockets that didn't blow up.

Background-Escape286

How much of your portfolio is in ASTS?

MakeAWishKidDied

That's fair. And re-evaluation is expected. I just think everyone may be overestimating how much satellites can replace existing ground infrastructure. ASTS and Starlink solve a coverage problem, but capacity is a different story. In dense areas you may need thousands of cell sites reusing frequencies..something satellites can't match. I think they'll end up coexisting with towers and small cell sites rather than replacing them. Also it’s good to note that a lot of these tower companies, NOT just your carriers like AT&T and T-mobile, have heavily invested in their own fiber networks to lease as additional revenue streams.

swizzle213

Exactly this. It may not be right out if the gate but eventually the norm will be some sort of add on or extra fee hidden in the standard package. At some point the norm will be to always have connectivity anywhere on Earth. Also - number 1 could happen but it will take a long time. ASTS has a number of patents that allow their sats to be superior over the foreseeable future, especially with regard to size. Additionally, SpaceX has shown it’s hand and is looking to replace existing MNOs instead of partnering with them. In the short to medium term I don’t see that working out too well for them. Long term, who knows

Jazzlike-Fan7250

what about RKLB? WIll it make a comeback looks to be doing alot better than ASTS

Ok-Mycologist-5371

That’s terrible information. Space X is terribly behind ASTS in satellite technology in this space. Starlink reaches speeds up to 4mps, hardly enough to send a text. Space X just launched ASTS satellites June 17th that reach speeds up to 200mps. Go test your 5g speed online now and it’s about 10% of that. Space X v2 satellites are not even being made yet, because the design makes them too heavy for anything other than starship to launch and those cap out at 120mps. ASTS is at least 5 years ahead if starlink in this sector, not to mention they have the contracts all in place. Elon has been clear, that space X is primarily a launch service, and that is what they do for ASTS.

NorCalAthlete

PLTR GME CSCO then 4 and 5 are NVDA, RKLB Rest of the top 10 are GOOG, AMD, TSLA, ASTS, AAPL ETFs are the bulk though. Those are just the top individual holdings.

OriginalGoonster

You’re comparing a luxury EV company marketing to a niche customer group to ASTS. This is comparing apples and orangutans

EmbarrassedKoala3982

for your MNO point, yes they probably have done the math themselves, and I think they also got to the same conclusion that is voice calls/light web browsing. I mean, ASTS website literally focuses specifically on voice calls/light web browsing, otherwise they would have stated their satellites can support HD video streaming as the main feature. Definitely not looking like broadband to me.

cbusoh66

ASTS hopes to serve less than 0.5% of the population and only for very brief periods of time. ASTS bulls want you to believe that ASTS will replace T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T.

EmbarrassedKoala3982

no lol it is not applicable, cell towers cover way less km and there are a LOT more cell towers than ASTS satellites

-Mothman_

The trillion dollar company can’t research and develop the technology that a $33 billion can, who operates in the same field and do similar things- sure? Any day SpaceX could release that they know / can do the same thing as ASTS and ASTS’ stock price will fall by half overnight from the completely unexpected news because “SpaceX hasn’t even demonstrated they have full direct to cell capability technology”.

NotGoodSoftwareMaker

Idk, much of India / Africa / Middle East / Latam still has very spotty coverage That covers maybe 3-4 billion people, assuming only 1bn need ASTS, with 5USD pm that could be your 10-15bn pa With government contracts and IOT that could push it further i guess Idk, my plan is to sell at 100-150bn market cap and move on

Signal-Personality-4

Even Google is in, they too have shares in ASTS.

DrSeuss1020

I’ve held ASTS for 5 years. The reason why imo it’s one of the most perfect stocks today is you have tons of short term traders + the OGs who are holding until the end state

Sea_Mode6087

Don't understand why so much love for ASTS and RKLB

rndname

Top mentions aggregated from this post: 1. MU 1. GOOGL 1. NVDA 1. RKLB 1. AMD 1. MSFT 1. ASTS 1. NBIS 1. RDDT 1. VOO

bootlegportalfluid

ASTS’s business model to partner with existing telecoms companies makes this less of a risk imo.

VirtualLife76

New to ASTS, curious. I'm seeing their D2C as their main tech, but I'm failing to see the main market. Cell towers cover 90% of the population, so it doesn't seem very consumer. Recently bought a handful of shares as it seems promising, but not finding much about their end goal.

Rockin_Gunungigagap

Actually I think I was misinformed. I thought it was ASTS failure that caused the satellites placed in the wrong orbit, it was instead blue origin's fault. 

Shdwrptr

OP actually cross posted your original response directly to the ASTS sub to ask their opinions on it but the mods have since deleted his post. There were multiple comments there with much more level of detail regarding the expected level of speed for users once the constellation is up and running. Suffice so say, they definitely do expect broadband level speeds and we don’t think management is just flat out lying in their marketing

rueggy

Most uses won’t be people wanting the guaranteed connectivity. It will be things like machines that need the connectivity. It will be applications I can’t even imagine yet. I remember a coworker asking me if I thought Google was a good buy at the IPO. I said I didn’t think a search engine was worth that much. I couldn’t see what more it would become. Same with ASTS. I’m in for the full ride this time.

EmbarrassedKoala3982

i won't read all the A.I. slop, sorry but just skimming through point 1. ok then divide by the number of concurrent users you think will use ASTS satellites. You do the calculation then get an average speed per user. and 98.9 mbps is per cell, again. not per user. put that in your AI.I agent and see what it says

AgreeableAttorney298

I hold ASTS and have for a while. I’m in it for the long run, but it’s a super volatile stock so getting in and out makes some sense. I do think it’s about to go on another run past $100 per share but I could be wrong, but that’s how the chart looks to me. In the long term, I think it’s a great growth stock to have some shares. Once the company gets global coverage, the price will be much higher than today (assuming limited dilution), and much more stable. I don’t know of any regulatory set backs but it could run into some in the future. The biggest risk is the operational side of things in my opinion, and dependency on reliable company’s / countries to launch ASTS’s satellites. It is a growth stock with some serious upside and some serious operational risks.

Interesting-Ad-1291

ASTS's success is increasingly dependent on the success of Blue Origin's launches, which to say the least.......are a bit of a coin toss compared to SpaceX. Not to mention, the more ASTS grows, the larger of a threat they are to Starlink, so I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX begin to restrict their launches on their rockets.

CRAZYJOEDAVOLA90

People saying ”don’t bet against Elon” are delusional. I won’t even comment on how better tech ASTS has than Starlink and spectrum that can penetrate through buildings. Yall seriously think that EU and Asia will sell their soul and info to Musk and the US in these times? If you’re not living under a rock the past 2 years you will notice that every big country outside US wants to be less dependent on Americans who betray their allies and Musk who is a regard. That’s why Japan is making a JV with ASTS and EU already has a JV with the biggest MNOs in EU with ASTS. Why? Because they want to own their own sats and own their own data without US and Musk being involved with a kill switch. ASTS has the tech and has the sats but doesn’t care about your data. Also, SpaceX told everyone their goals. To disrupt the MNOs and be the only one. You think every MNO in the world will just give up and shag Elon? No, they will do everything to survive and that is with ASTS. ASTS distribute the tech and sats and MNOs pay, gets the data and gets to hold on to their customers. That’s it. You think T-Mobile will continue the partnership with SpaceX when they told the world that they will eat their lunch in the end? Why do you think they med a JV with ASTS, AT&T and Verizon? Rakuten chose ASTS because they are to only one with the tech and JAPAN WILL OWN THE SATS AND DATA. Wake up.

EmbarrassedKoala3982

do note the title of this post that is why I included some more maybe less important/weaker bear cases, but my main bear case about the company is point 1. Yes they are, but how many people will be using ASTS satellites at once. I think most of the ASTS bulls agree their satellites won't be able to provide broadband levels of speeds. How much mbps do you think their satellites would be able to provide for the average user?

teenagelightning99

>>Do you think only hundreds of thousands of people will be using ASTS satellites at once or tens of millions. Surely the latter right meaning the speeds won't be broadband. No, it will be the former. ASTS is partnering with MNO's to provide supplemental coverage outside of terrestrial networks. Most phones are covered by terrestrial networks most of the time. ASTS jumps in to cover dead zones, which will not contain tens of millions of people all trying to stream video at once.

CRAZYJOEDAVOLA90

The germans won’t sell to Americans or Musk and T-Mobile will partner with ASTS because they know SpaceX will eat their lunch.

EmbarrassedKoala3982

just some basic math. let's take video streaming which is at last 5 mbps. 200 mbps per cell with 2000 cells = 400,000 mbps total. If each user uses 5 mbps of that total then that equals 80,000 users. If they have 3 satellites covering the US then that is 240,000 users. Keep in mind this is not including object interference/walls/software or hardware issues which will drop the speed. 300 million mobile data subscribers in the US. Do you think only hundreds of thousands of people will be using ASTS satellites at once or tens of millions. Surely the latter right meaning the speeds won't be broadband.

Artistic-World-2703

Only ASTS

OriginalGoonster

Right but I’m asking where you’re getting the info to back up “the average user who connects to ASTS satellites will probably receive 0.1-1 Mbps”.

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

How much throughout each sat supports? Comments from 4 years ago put it at 1600TB per sat. That seems low. It works out only for low usage plans. Starlink has 100GB for $55. Assuming 50% data plan usage, single ASTS satellite would support 32000 users of that kind. That's 21M of revenue per satellite, and they want to have 60 of those sats in orbit soon. That's just 1.2B in revenue, and they have expenditures of 460M (ttm 2026 q1) already, so their profit would be best case scenario just 0.7B per year and would warrant valuation around 30x PE at around 21B, so about 35% below current one. Are they planning to sell smaller data plans? What will be their projected revenue per GB served and will their new sats supporters much more total throughput?

Shdwrptr

1. They are providing broadband for people out of tower range, not running their own service. Congested areas will use the tower, not ASTS satellites so your point would be moot if it was fully accurate (it isn’t) 2. SpaceX is offering a full blown service so they aren’t really competitors, but even if they were your first point blows them out of the water. If SpaceX can launch more sats to improve service then ASTS can as well. 3. You have no proof of delay and they’re already essentially locked into service by 2027 no matter what so I’m not sure where your issue is even with the delays (which are only partly their fault) 4. They have $3.5b in cash right now which is enough for at least partial service. They’ve also diluted like 20 times and the stock is fine so who cares if they have to dilute another time? SpaceX literally just diluted 2 weeks ago, did you care about that? 5. Why would they need to improve their tech much more? They can just launch more sats like SpaceX does. Also, improving the tech doesn’t mean “bigger”

Saddestlilpanda

NBIS, ASTS, DRAM make up a little bit over 70% of my portfolio currently.

Le_pants_de_marche

GOOGL RR ASTS / NOK (both even) Kioxia was my biggest but trimmed as it ran up way too fast so I could feel a correction was coming. Recently dumped my BB for NOK earnings play, will hopefully not tank & I'll rotate profits into building more Kioxia / ASTS

awe2D2

ASTS TD Bank Google Excluding ETFs

FiaRua_

MU NVDA ASTS avg 67, 12, 5 respectively no i’m not a millionaire unfortunately

octopus_serenader

Then why did you write up an opinion on "the whole thesis"? The reason we weren't scared about Elon starting his own cellular sat network was because it depended on new chips in phones and ASTS tech did not.

swizzle213

ASTS is like 75% of my portfolio

EmbarrassedKoala3982

1) They will not provide broadband with their satellites which is a lie by the ASTS management. FCC says 35 mbps per user minimum is required for mobile broadband. The average user who connects to ASTS satellites will probably receive 0.1-1 mbps in busy-average conditions, good enough for voice calls/very light web browsing but not videos. This is clever marketing from ASTS, their satellites DO have broadband capabilities but in practice it is not possible. Please just do the math using their expected 200 mbps per cell speeds and 2000+ cells which = 0.1-1 mbps per user. Their tech is not as good as most people think. You see a lot of ASTS followers thinking they would provide 200 mbps PER USER when is actually 200 mbps PER CELL which = 0.1-1 mbps per user from my estimates, certainly not > 5 mbps for the average user. Actually, if their satellites can provide at least 5 mbps per user then that would make me a bull. 2) SpaceX competition. The main revenue will be from mobile data subscribers seeking to avoid dead zones/have enough money to afford the luxury. If SpaceX achieves at least 5-10 mbps per user, allowing video streaming, then most people will buy SpaceX. People flock to the best technology and will ignore the data sovereignty issues as mentioned by most ASTS bulls. Do note that SpaceX says they are targeting 150 mbps PER USER, compared to ASTS 200 mbps PER CELL which = 0.1-1 mbps per user. I don't believe people will use their service if they won't be able to stream videos on ASTS satellites. 3) Execution risk - they have delayed their June shipment again I think. They say it's due to launch availability but who cares, a delay is a delay and small delays add up. You can see it in their guidance, so far they have pushed back their shipment guidance for approx half a year already. That means they should have had service rolling by now but no, they keep giving unrealistic goals and missing them. This is not good enough for a $30 billion market cap company. 4) They are increasing headcount rapidly and need to buy more SpaceX launches. This means a dilution is very likely near term. Also no revenue from their service means this could reverse back to sub $20 for no reason. Cult/meme status with a cult following = lots of paper hands. You can see since how one of their major investors selling their stake kept the stock down for months while other space stocks rocketed, a sign of the stock being easily controlled by sellers. 5) They can't really improve their technologies because their satellites are already at the max size limit for the current rockets. Plus, they are a one trick pony, with no product to diversify their business into. Whereas RKLB have the solar panels, flatellites and rockets. SPCX has A.I., Starlink broadband. Certainly not a $1 trillion stock. Maybe some more room to run has a momentum stock but I see no future long term if they don't actually achieve BROADBAND.

Hanshee

ASTS, spy, RDDT

SpeleoJack

Never go up against a Musk company. Starlink has several potential ways to drink a large portion of ASTS’s milkshake. Aside from that competitive threat I live in Midwest USA and rarely experience any cell issues. I suspect this is the norm. ASTS seems like a solution in search of a problem. I am not opposed to it but I think they are late to the space game and the potential demand is greatly overstated.

Ill-Construction-209

ASTS

winterrules91

Max potential? Absolutely not. There's no way the amount of global reach this could have has been priced in already. Japanese government is about to invest in the Rakuten-ASTS partnership to bring this level of dedicated connectivity just to Japan - one of the most technically advanced civilizations on Earth. The best part is, they have essentially zero cost to acquire customers because of their partnerships with MNOs - easy distribution channels. Every person on Earth with a phone, currently, is a potential customer.

Professional_Taro171

Starlink and ASTS are widely different in terms of product offering as it stands now. ASTS is also direct to cell, no equipment needed except from your existing phone and service provider (assuming they partner with ASTS).

Another_Smith_SC

I track ASTS very closely. I'm not sure what legislation setbacks you are referring to. Nearly all legal and regulatory matters I've seen are overwhelmingly positive. You won't find me dumping my position any time soon.

AuthorAdamOConnell

As a holder of ASTS (31,000 shares), I find it very annoying that all the reasonable doubts about the stock are being downvoted on this thread. I obviously believe in the company but to call it a slam dunk is ignoring the many risks. \* SpaceX, over time, makes better sats. \* Commercial use isn't as high as predicated. \* Government contracts like 'Golden Dome' turn out to be nothing burgers. \* Amazon over takes us. \* Failed launches. \* Cadance continues to be slow/never picks up. \* Tech doesn't scale as planned. \* Dilution. Those are off the top of my head. Ultimately, I'm not that worried about any of them, but they are still possible risks.

CD274

That's ridiculous. They're both at 50% for me but ASTS was 80 last Thurs when I checked. Rklb is the lowest I checked by far. What's space x, lunr for you?

Darling_Pinky

I live in a large city and my connectivity still sucks. I’m signing up immediately. ASTS has massive MNO partnerships globally, so adoption rate doesn’t need to be extremely high for large scale revenue. There seems to be a larger than expected defense use for them though and they’ll be other rev streams. Stock pretty much will continue to bounce from $65 to $130-$140 until we hit a new ceiling. Sats have been delayed but that shouldn’t be a surprise given the entire sector’s slower than expected movement. If you want shares, I’d buy anything under $70-$80 and/or sell CSP on $60/$70/$80.

Frampton

RH showing 30% and 25% for ASTS and RKLB

WorkSucks135

Rakuten got the grant, who is partnered with ASTS. 

eltoda

Why not buy ASTS? -- Reddit is very bullish on it, that is good enough for me to stay away!

octopus_serenader

No, I thought that was why ASTS had an edge because it works with existing phones.

AmazingSugar1

Are you arguing that the walled garden of Telcos ensures ASTS has a larger TAM? Would you say that a new telecom service with a dedicated device like the one SpaceX is demo-ing, is not potential competition?

Aromatic_Scale_2380

Welcome to ASTS

OK-Greg-7

ASTS

TreGet234

ASTS was good until 2 weeks before space x ipo. Goog is at least up a little bit. Palantir was too frothy so i think next year i will avoid meme stocks that are already up that much. Reddit yeah that was an unexpected dud. Even next year i may fall for something like that. Didn't expect all software to become so correlated to bitcoin.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

fwiw there were some bad picks for the top 10: Reddit, Palantir, ASTS, and GOOG

one-won-juan

correct, that guy does it every ASTS mention

Playful_Fun_9073

Sometimes I wonder if they give out a giant price target so the herd will all buy so that they can sell their millions of shares. They have to sell when all the peasants are buying because they need the exit liquidity. Then the price goes down, scaring the peasantry and those peasants sell at a loss pushing the price down further. Then the big bad smart money buys back in lower and actually rides it to $3000 rinse repeat until you are poor and they are rich. I could be wrong but that is what I think. Don’t feel bad, I bought ASTS at $84 then it dropped to $63. I could have got way more shares for my giant lump sum. I did save some of it and average down but if I had just waited a bit for the Space X space stock crash I could have nailed the timing. I got too excited because of catalysts and the inflection point of bluebird satellites shooting up into orbit on a falcon 9 rocket and t mobile joint venture with Verizon and AT&T. And the department of defense, my favorite department thanks to Palantir. It does hurt to fuck up the timing but just wait and it will go back to break even and then climb. I’m back at break even and it felt good to buy more all the way down and back up. It’s a memory shortage, but more all the way back down and back up. Maybe buy DRAM so you have all the big memory stocks all at once. That is what I do.

Kurkil

OK, but realistically, how does that differentiate from ASTS?

DrSeuss1020

Tbh your comment comes off as more arrogant. But if you’d like a list of stocks I would like to keep buying at lower levels I’m happy to share. ZETA ASTS ROOT LMND PCT IMSR MRLN, and NOW there ya go!

jcodes57

I still like ASTS, differentiation in implementation they have will be huge fast