AMD

MaxDragonMan

Looking over the entire portfolio for the first time in probably a month or two, as I've been quite busy. Sharing here in case anyone has particularly strong feelings on any holdings of mine lol. (And I find writing it out helps me gain some perspective and work through my thoughts.) * AMD: absolute tear this year. +149% YTD. +349% 1Y. Fantastic. * ATRL: hit $100 since then has kinda dropped and plateaued. -9% YTD, -12% 1Y. * BN: -3% YTD, +15.4% 1Y. Long-term hold anyway. * GOOGL: +15% YTD, +114% 1Y. And to think people were dogging on it. (-7% this week.) * MSFT: -12% YTD, -8% 1Y. That sucks. I think this is MSFT's "Google moment." It'll turn. * NGEN: -66% YTD. -20% 1Y. I made a previous comment about this one on this thread. * NVDA: +15% YTD, +52% 1Y. Honestly Nvidia is just unstoppable. Seriously what the fuck. * RDDT: -27% YTD, +41% 1Y. I... Genuinely don't know what to think about Reddit at this point. * He says, on Reddit. * RKLB: +65% YTD, +330% 1Y. Darling oh darling. If only I had bought more than 75 shares. * RKLB has become my second or third best buy of all time. Writing it out like this makes me feel better. The portfolio is down for the year but that's because the NGEN took such a massive hit. MSFT is fairly minor, as is BN and RDDT at this point. RKLB continues to grow, NVDA/GOOGL/AMD dominate the portfolio at this point. Maybe I should just sell all the underperformers and toss them into the index for the time being.

chromevfx

Market red = AMD green

Dude_HaHa

All the SPCEtards got OBLITERATED. Next up, the Semi-retards. Looking at MU, SNDK and AMD.

Zipski577

This is why NVDA hasn’t really appreciated that much above the price it traded at 8 months ago in October. These expectations were priced in a long time ago as the stock went up 1,200% in 3-4 years. They’ve found a way to “beat consensus” above a certain margin every quarter but it hasn’t moved the needle for the stock at all. Thats because it was expected and priced in a long time ago and they have had to grow into that valuation and prove it in the time since. That is why AMD investors are currently playing with fire. At a certain point AMD the risk/ reward skews because having extremely high growth is not going to move the needle when that expectation was already priced in, hence why the stock is up 400% over the last year. they now need to grow earnings at ~80% over the next 2-4 years and anything that indicates it might not happen will lead to a sizable drawdown in the price as it re-rates expectations. During COVID, Zoom, Snapchat, Pinterest, Docusign, etc all had their pandemic era growth numbers get priced into the stock as if they would continue on that trajectory forever years to come. When it became apparent that wasn’t going to be the case, their prices cratered which is why their historical charts now look like bubbles that crashed. The same will eventually happen with all of these stocks that are moonshotting on earnings today. People are pricing in growth figures based on assumption that AI-driven growth will last for a long time. I suspect it won’t, nor will every company be able to pull the levers NVDA has to ensure they always get reportable figures where they need to be to each quarter. Last earnings they changed the way they report their segment revenues under “data center” because they came up short on consensus estimates for “compute.” They changed the line items under the data center segment to “hyperscale” and “ACIE” from “Compute” and “networking” because they missed on one. Years ago Meta changed from reporting Facebook users to reporting “Family of Apps” users as soon they hit a point that would disappoint expectations. NVDA has done a handful of other things to ensure their expected, priced in figures have been reported as needed but I don’t believe the entire sector will be able to do the same or get away with it forever. And eventually the music will stop. Market is playing with fire right now

Aromatic-Ad-6244

"Cathie Wood Keeps On Selling AMD Stock, Ark Scoops Up $95.6 Million Worth Of Google Parent's Shares — Snaps Up Meta, Alibaba Too"

bearhunter429

#With AVGO dead, there is less competition for AMD LMAO🤌

Zipski577

Yes, this is why NVDA has traded range-bound for months. The current valuation was priced in several quarters, if not years ago. That is why it went up 1,200% in 4 years and traded at a high multiple that has gradually moved toward normalcy. They continue to post strong numbers that beat “consensus” every quarter, but stock barely moves. Why? Because it was expected and prices in well in advance. AMD stock is now in a similar spot to that of NVDA years ago. Trading close to a 200x PE ratio and near 50x Fwd PE. They need to grow earnings like 80% over the next 2-4 years just to grow into the multiple they are being priced at by the market today. Anything along the way that indicates even slightly that they may not do meet these expectations will kill the stock price. Eventually the risk/ reward becomes skewed and you are playing with fire.

Frothy_Walrus

Not a financial expert in anyway. But, it depends on your preferred markets? I’m diversified but not wildly: - Tech: MSFT, AAPL, AMZ, AMD, MU and RDDT as a more wild yet optimistic pick. - Healthcare: MDLN - Necessity: VTI/VOO (DCA whenever you can)

Algalon_TheObserver

Best of luck man. I was just in a similar situation with AMD. I also hate that Schwab does not allow you to group options and instead lists them out one by one. But, I realize now I need to step into condors, not buy it all out right if I try doing these again.

Opening-League3002

AMD is next

dabblesest

Thanks! It’s def a personal best for me with options, still doesn’t beat my AMD share position, but that took over a decade to take off haha

GuiltyShirt3771

Green by open. Meta and AMD will carry the NASDAQ since meta just find another money printer

IvoryTowerResident

good thing MU, MRVL, AMD carrying

Elons-Musky-Balls

Every other Chip getting smoked and AMD still green. Lisa Su is built different . AMD $1000 by end of year

OldWonder5865

Nvidia. Broadcom. Micron. AMD. Long ago, the semiconductor nations lived together in harmony. Then, everything changed when Broadcom pooped the bed on their earnings call. Only the Bolatar, master of memory, foundry, display, and vibes, could stop them, but when futures needed it most, Bolatar vanished. A few hours passed and my regards and I discovered the new Bolatar. A KOSPI-pumper named Korea. And although its overnight green candles are great, it has a lot to learn before it’s ready to save anyone. But I believe Korea can save the semis.

randomhaus64

My account went up a lot today, mostly AMD, did things go down?

ElonSucksbutt

AMD $3.61

foxasintheanimal

This is a bubble. A 15% one day slide on the #2 chip designer after earnings will make everyone question if perhaps they invested too far. Avgo is supposed to fall in the middle between AMD unpredictability and NVDA reliability. It doesn't matter what Avgo did early this week when the market has the attention span of a gold fish. The market literally needs to buy this dip in 2 days or else its Oracle part 2.

jbond007v12

I went home from my semiconductor job angry at Intel about something and for vengeance bought a few shares of AMD at $11. So that did pretty well for me in the decade since.

ComprehensiveKiwi489

Why isn't the AVGO "contagion" spreading to NVDA, AMD, etc.?

Nike_J

Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, buy AMD. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? Buy AMD. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Buy AMD. AMD is an all powerful, all encompassing entity that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Free will is a myth. AMD sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (AMD has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you ask if AMD can go higher, know that the answer is "Yes" and don't ask such a foolish question again.

Legendary-Lemon

If you were smart you would short AMD. That shit gonna tank more than AVGO.

1ncehost

Brother, the GB10 is the same chip and its been out for a year. Also the consumer market is dogshit garbage compared to the enterprise market. Margins are a tiny fraction. AMD Strix Halo (Ryzen AI MAX+ 395) is basically the same concept. I have one of those. Only super nerds like me buy them.

unhappyreach_

And AMD bulls LMAO 🤌

unhappyreach_

LMAO🤌 I hope AMD makes you super rich to make up for your manic personality

ClearValue1994

This is where Soros’s reflexivity theory is really useful. The price detaching from earnings isn’t just a valuation concern, it becomes its own narrative. Rising price attracts more buyers, more buyers push the price up further, the rising price then gets used as evidence the thesis is correct. It works beautifully on the way up and then violently unwinds when something breaks the loop. AMD at 76% forward EPS growth is genuinely impressive but the stock has priced in that growth and then some. The PEG tells you whether you’re paying a fair price for that growth rate and right now you almost certainly aren’t. That doesn’t mean it crashes tomorrow but it does mean the margin of safety is essentially zero which is a very different risk profile to what most people holding it think they have

veryveryuniquename5

its over, the bers were right- avgo is only doing 100b+ in 2027, less than AMD. its a pathetic company LMAO 🤌

veryveryuniquename5

its over, the bers were right- avgo is only doing 100b+ in 2027, less than AMD. its a pathetic company LMAO 🤌

veryveryuniquename5

holy shit, AMD is going into a bear market now. thanks avgo LMAO 🤌

Like-a-hawk

I think I'll do the one thing that's been most profitable, regarding my stocks: Hold what I have. I've typically been able to pick a sell price, and see it rise, eventually. With today's stocks, nearly everything I look at seems to be at the top. I recently rebalanced my portfolio, selling the winners, most of my oil stocks, AMD, INTC, and ANET, and buying back into the big, long-term players. I still hold some RYCEY, which has been very kind to me, and I bought some LUNR, which might have been lunacy. I sold my $2 SPCE calls for a small profit, before it peaked. I've fiddled around with my portfolio more, in the past six months, than I have since 2020. That was not a wise move. I'm still hanging around 28% for the past year, which is nothing to be ashamed of, but I missed at least 5% because of needless buying and selling. So, I sit and wait.

floridabeach9

not close. unless you’re buying the dip on AMD. AVGO has better financials, but it’s an 80 p/e 2 trillion dollar stock. which is kinda crazy

RedBGinger6989

i mean.... AMD and NVDA isn't a surprise for anyone into computers decades ago

TechIsTheFuture26

I won't pretend like I'm some stock guru. I got lucky and I know it. But I honestly saw the writing on the wall with Nvidia trading sideways and crappy gains after the stock split. Small gains going forward. I did a DD with AI on AMD and saw there was tons of gains to be made. Both on the stock side and on the tech side. AMD simply has more products that it needs to continue to refine. Nvidia products "just work". AMD still has a TON of work it has to do. And with that work comes headlines, pumps, options, etc. AMD has more room to grow. I also did a DD with AI on memory and it indicated that the next bottleneck was memory. Then I made a massive investment, and then over the coming months, I held strong. Now it's the biggest position. But what about the "memory crash"?!?! If a stock shoots up 500%, and it "crashes" 50%, did you still not make a ton of money? I also lost a few thousand on ORCL and NVDL. I did 0 research on those. But on the stocks that I have researched, I've literally made 20x more. You also have to just hold through all the noise and be ok with your stock going to 0. Don't ever panic. If you're going to sell, pick a specific date in the future and note why you're doing it. If your reasons are "crash coming", "FOMO", etc, that's not a good reason to move money out of a stock.

wkgko

AMD is more overvalued than NVDA ...lol

Candid_Consequence94

Short AMD

veryveryuniquename5

STOP FUCKING UP MY AMD U PRICKS stupid overvalued avgo and nvda LMAO 🤌

Practical-Health3455

AMD did something similar to AVGO on its ER. Buy the dip, fools!

Ok_Serve_4099

I've been thinking about selling some of those calls since I own shares but the second I do AMD will go up $200 a share for no reason

illinformed-will

AMD doesn't gives a shit day, weekly, monthly RSI thru the roof, shorting that bull is tempring but likely gonna get rekt

Concept-Plastic

AMD doesn’t even care lol

Zipski577

And yet AMD, INTC, MU, SNDK, QCOM, WDC, amongst others were still up considerably. Just shows how much impact the mag7 has on the index’s returns

skilliard7

I think it's too early to draw conclusions about Nvidia. For decades, Nvidia has faced minimal competition, except for AMD(which has lagged behind). With how much competition the AI boom has attracted, Nvidia is no longer a monopoly. Nearly every large tech company has been taking steps to reduce reliance on Nvidia by developing chips in-house. These are only just recently starting to roll out. Nvidia's sales have remained strong because of procurement challenges; when you can't get TSMC to produce enough of your own chips, or SK Hynix/Samsung/Micron to sell you enough HBM, your only way to meet customer demand is to buy Nvidia/AMD. So big tech and frontier AI labs are taking whatever they can get, whether its in-house chips, Nvidia, or AMD. When the compute shortage/semiconductor shortage eventually subsidies(eventually supply will catch up to demand, it's just a question of when), Nvidia will face substantial pressure to their margins. The question is not if this will happen, but when. If it happens by 2030, Nvidia is overvalued. If Compute remains constrained well into the 2030's, Nvidia's valuation may be justified.

bachmchvzw

yeah. no one ever mentions AMD here.... ever.

PapayaBig430

DELL ripped because no one talked about it SNOW ripped because no one talked about it AMD ripped because no one talked about it AVGO is down because literally everyone talked about it When will you regards learn?

The_Albertino

AMD carried my entire portfolio today. Everybody down and it brought me to even. Monster

enginvest

At this point it’s safe to say that AMD is guaranteed to hit $1T market cap. Every time it dips I try to buy but chicken out

Zipski577

Rare down-day today yet AMD still up 400 bps Bizarre and very mania-like

jarkon-anderslammer

Tried to catch a falling knife with LITE and got sliced to shit (bought at -5%, holding a 3% loss). Will see what happens tomorrow. Holding AMD and AMAT from yesterday helped soften the blow.

periccc

I can’t really buy voo with my uk stock isa as it’s a cfd. I do have most of my holdings in VUAG and VWRP. I also hold MU, AMD and NVidia as i got them really really early. For other long term I have Google and Apple. For my short term I’ve got ouster, samsara, rocket labs and Celsius. Once I see a green day on them I’m going to sell them and wait for spacex. I just don’t know if I should wait for it to settle or if I should buy it on launch.

EAechoes

If you actually have been focused on the AI market you should be rich. I bought SNDK-EWY-WDC-AMD back in September. I know the demand was gonna be huge and those companies would be the winners. I recently have moved some gains into companies that produce Utility and Power, Raw Nuclear (CCJ), and mining. But look at metal/mining companies on the NSE. None of them are doing amazing. The trailing time for winners in the rare metals could be years while AI is now.

razeusv2

Glad I got rid of BRK.B and bought AMD on Monday for my wife's account. Should have bought AMD in mine.

DrunknHamster

https://preview.redd.it/j0sml1nph45h1.jpeg?width=2622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef029c7d192805542d00b58f5c5bd26a47fd276b I also YOLO’d into AMD but was too much of a cuck to do options. I can only imagine if I bought LEAPs…

DrunknHamster

I love you AMD

veryveryuniquename5

ppl busy here thinking mrvl is the next 1t, but the wohle time it was AMD LMAO 🤌

alwaysSWED

That's what I kept saying about AMD

rioferdy838

Meta? AMD? Im fucking wondering what it is too. They seriously have fucked every retail stock pretty much out there.

TheSauce69

AMD up 3%, NVDA Down 3% Are Lisa Su's cannons more impressive than Jensen Huang's hog?

sloanemonroe

Sand disk, Meta, AMD, holding up qqq. And that’s it.

PapayaBig430

HPE opened almost flat because everyone talked about it. Barely anyone mentioned DELL, SNOW, and AMD and that’s why they pumped so massively

Master-Stranger8908

umm guys, what happens to my AMD call if AVGO shits the bed ?

ElkQuiet1541

what is not overvalued in this market? AMD, Intel, ARM PEs are enormous

Luketeiro

Priced in?! What market are you talking about bro? Didnt see Intel, AMD, DELL and HP going up 40% after a huge "priced in" weeks before?

Butholxplorer_69_420

This typically applies but did not apply to dell, AMD, or hpe. This season is different. But red today may mean the euphoria is ending

Wiscoman

AMD Forward EPS will be $14+ in 2027 and $20+ in 2028. Many analysts are project $25-30 EPS in 2028. What we are seeing is buying into the future. Everyone anticipates this stock can reach $2-3T market cap over the next 3-5 years (look at Broadcom levels). So it is being scooped up with future anticipation that your money will double or triple in that time.

Bababoueyyy

AMD will moon if AVGO give good guidance no?

pocketrocketss

AMD quietly approaching $1T

vermilli21

I took a nap and AMD is up another 2%? On what?

Aromatic_Land2167

Short squeeze on AMD. Go attack WSB.

zangor

I sold some in April and then in May. But eventually I got the memo. Never sell AMD…

FatFluffyFish

Where are the AMD bols? Need ideas for strike and DTE. Give me those calls.

gkdjsl

Not now boss, I'm monitoring my AMD gains

miss_L_fire

THANK YOU to whoever told me not to sell my AMD calls

yerwathurts

Im gld i held my AMD call lmao

LakeShowForLife24

AMD is such a damn beast

Double_Biscotti_6364

AMD keeps rejecting off the 540ish area but 3rd times the charm right?

TickTockTaudit

AMD is wild

gianmk

AMD to lose more than 50% of marketcap in 2 weeks, you are by far the highest IQ individual i have heard of.

razeusv2

About to sell my stake in NVDA and throw it into AMD. This is bullshit.

Slabbed1738

Clearly a rotation to undervalued assets like AMD

miss_L_fire

Should I just cut my losses on my $550 AMD calls? 😅

wowthisislong

Everything is red except AMD. This is fine.

morganm6488

FULL PERMANENT CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCED. Iran to fully open Strait of Hormuz. In exchange president trump providing every Iranian citizen 1 HP computer with a full MSFT subscription. MU and AMD to contribute hardware. Transportation of physical computers to be handled by RKLB who just inked a 500B delivery contract via spaceship.

iBoughtAtTheBottom

AMD becoming an advanced money duplicator was not on my bingo card for 2026

Koki4kok

Intel, AMD still green what titans

vermilli21

Somehow AMD is still green? Thats crazy work

EV1021

Surprised that AMD and RIVN are keeping my account green today.

Unhappy_Hedgehog_808

Why the fuck is AMD green out of everything?

GuiltyShirt3771

Meta and AMD both mooning printer goes brrr

daenerys-anran

I chose to avoid Ai, probably not smart but I made a few hundred from AMD/Nvidia then called it quits. Renewable energy is heavily carrying my gains, everything else is flat. My country ETFs are down 3-10% and still dropping due to Iran. 

Fit-Employ3623

Fuck AMD

TickTockTaudit

If you think AVGO is going to be a sell the news situation, AMD may catch some strays. Puts are cheap. May be worth a lotto

xthelord2

yep, that is where they desperately try to force people outside of this economy to use their product to make up for the debt through revenue (through free periods so companies get addicted to their product and potentially pay up when paid period rolls up) hence the cringe speeches where CEO's get booed to all hell and back, while talking to very people who are going to burn this entire clown show down hence the LSD tripped CEO of NVIDIA dancing and hyping a massive scam called AI, while on the other part of the town his closest buddies from supermicro are raided by police for smuggling off of 50 server racks into china via japan hence CEO of NVIDIA's cousin (who is CEO of AMD) snatching defeat from victory to prop NVIDIA sales instead of doing a fair competition towards NVIDIA for years hence the ban on non US made routers, this gives US government angle to help elon musk pump more money into the bubble hence china banning imports of semiconductors from outside china and begging of collaboration with EU, because it found ways to benefit off of this

luis-barata

The 76 percent forward EPS growth assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Multiple expansion on top of already aggressive earnings forecasts is the late-cycle signal worth respecting. The bull thesis says consensus still underestimates MI300/MI325 ramp and inference share gains from Nvidia, so 76 percent revises higher. The bear read is that you're paying for AI execution risk twice, through the demanding growth assumption baked into consensus and again through multiple expansion on top. The CSCO vs NVDA comparison is actually instructive in the opposite direction the deck implies, CSCO had a real product story too, the bubble was about how far ahead of itself price got. Where AMD lands depends entirely on the next two quarters of data center revenue prints.

vermilli21

Who the fuck is buying AMD at 530

goober2341

The issue is that Nvidia isn't just investing in OpenAI and similar companies because they "like their services". They do it so OpenAI has the money and incentive to buy their GPUs. AMD is doing the exact same thing. If OpenAI is so amazing, it should have no issue borrowing money to buy those amazing Nvidia and AMD chips. This is a huge red flag that indicates these AI companies don't have the organic customer base and revenue to back their massive spending.

AdOk3638

AMD market cap is not even 1T yet? Wtf? The market is rigged against Lisa Su!

miss_L_fire

AMD plzzzz

AdOk3638

Just reminder, Cathie fking Wood dumped AMD and load up NVDA couple days ago. That would be a huge sign for us regards. LMAO🤌

ksyoung17

Yes, because AMD, MRVL, AVGO, META, TSLA, and CVX are all small caps that are insignificant to market conditions... Right?

Goml33

AMD