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Reddit Posts

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Celestica is Celestial

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD- big earnings coming.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

So are we all just gambling on AMD tomorrow

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

is AMD valid tomorrow?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Nice

r/stocksSee Post

Price jacked up after hours crashes during trading pattern?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

What are we thinking about AMD for eerrrrmingsss

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Looking to to all in but which one is a "safer" play. AMD vs Msft

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD 1400 PE ratio sustainable?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD's new powerhouse cpu ZEN 5 is about turn heads... leaked specs and launch date...

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD will trade at this level....yeah, i know it sounds a mad Bear the Perma

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD- earnings tomorrow 01/30. Is it breaking upwards on this channel?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Elon just informally announced he would buy AMD chips for Tesla's dojo supercomputer

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

All in on AMD

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD - Elon Musk

r/stocksSee Post

Oh, the mistakes I’ve made!

r/pennystocksSee Post

The AI innovation storm has swept through CES 2024, The annual CES has become a Tech-Stage

r/WallstreetbetsnewSee Post

The AI innovation storm has swept through CES 2024, The annual CES has become a Tech-Stage

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Earnings & economic calendar

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD - To The Clucking Stratosphere

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD - 200 or bust? What 1-30-2024 to watch for...

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Which stocks should I consider investing in?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Any advice on what to YOLO on this week?

r/optionsSee Post

Trying Butterfly Strategy

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

BIG WEEK AHEAD

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Load up on NVIDIA && AMD CALLS Bros!!

r/wallstreetbetsOGsSee Post

FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis

r/WallstreetbetsnewSee Post

FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis

r/WallStreetbetsELITESee Post

FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD Calls

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD PE Ratio

r/optionsSee Post

Option strategy on AMD and META

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD's new MI300x vs the field, plus future projections.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Im dead inside, but TGIF

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD Call

r/optionsSee Post

Theta Decay

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

GOOGL April 19'24 $170 Calls - Up 100%... Thoughts?

r/stocksSee Post

Low risk Semis

r/investingSee Post

Low risk Semi - conductor/s

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Fk u AMD

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Strangely the US wants to Intel to succeed but their price does not look that way

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Bullish on NVDA after Intel Guidance

r/optionsSee Post

Should I sell my long AMD calls before earnings?

r/stocksSee Post

Intel stock sinks as early 2024 outlook comes up short

r/optionsSee Post

First time buying an option - need help understanding

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD earning call 1/30

r/stocksSee Post

Intel vs AMD; CPU 3D Cache physics theory

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Intel vs AMD; CPU 3D Cache physics theory

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$3000 -> $60,000 🔥🔥

r/stocksSee Post

Should I hold onto TSLA or cut my losses and diversify?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$2,900> $173,000

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$TSLA dip buy

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD 🔝

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

“Bringing YOLOs back”

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD- testing weekly regression with strong greens recently.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

I'm the $2k to $50k Options Account Challenge Guy and I Have Some Gains to Share From My Larger Account

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD $200 call 1/26 worth it?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

I believe them puts on NVDA and AMD I guess?

r/optionsSee Post

Best single day

r/stocksSee Post

Investing in usd stocks/taxation canada

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

KitKat Canada AI Ad? I’m Bullish on NVDA, AMD, & SMCI

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Is a career at AMD even worth it??

r/stocksSee Post

Knowing when to pull out

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Best. Day. Ever.

r/investingSee Post

Any reason why I shouldn’t invest in TSM given its current price?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Is anyone else breaking out the popcorn to watch AMD stock on a daily basis?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Just buy SEMI/AI and ride the hype. The roller coaster will end soon but for now it’s green day’s ahead.

r/investingSee Post

Made My First Investment At 20.

r/optionsSee Post

CSP for 10-11 Months Total Return ?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

One of my AMD calls that I haven't sold yet

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Am I doing options right?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$12k AMD gain 🔥 by Taking over "Update 2: It's either several million or..." from u/ThrowAwayhfhdjhxnjd

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Bullish on $AMD (Long-term)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Is AMD a good buy?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$600→$1700

r/stocksSee Post

Some AMD vs Intel CPU 3D cache design theory

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

My recent AMD vs INTC insight + 69% in 2 days

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Part two- been practicing option trading (80 % success rate)

r/optionsSee Post

Niche ETF Option Arb Strategy

r/optionsSee Post

$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 2 +$519.03 Net Realized)

r/stocksSee Post

TSLA Unloading

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

PART 2 Been practicing option trading for a year

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD round 2 tomorrow lol

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

ASML Sympathy Play/ ER Gambol

r/optionsSee Post

Optimal Exit on AMD Jan26 175C?

r/optionsSee Post

AMD $172.5 Jan 26 Call

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 1 +$250 Unrealized)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD stock. Buy or no

r/optionsSee Post

$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 1 +$250 Unrealized)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AMD: All My Dinero. It's either Dinner or no Dinner

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Sucks to hold AMD!

r/stocksSee Post

AMD Ava Hahn Stock Slide

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Fess Up, who ate it on AMD today?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$AMD buy the dip

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$ADM falls 16% as investors suddenly realize they made a typo while trying to buy $AMD

Mentions

AMD gonna start making RAM?

Mentions:#AMD

Still remember that AMD guy who turned 7k to 1 million of the openai and AMD announcement when AMD was up 30% premarket.

Mentions:#AMD

Bruhs did you know AMD is buying INTC???

Mentions:#AMD#INTC

Entries are the hardest and most critical. I have four levels, previous day high and low, previous day close, and pre-market high and low. I automatically get in the pre-market high and lows: puts off the high and calls off the low. I also do calls or puts off the 200MA on the 1 minute. Those are trickier cause the trade likes to break and come back (re-test). Previous day high and low are riskier and I have to see how the momentum is before I get in those. I also have levels where that ticker hits over time like AMD and $200. Exits are easy: look for a trend change. I use the 9 and 21 EMA's for that. If SPY or whatever is going up and never breaks below the 9 EMA then I don't get out. If it does break then I either lighten the load or get out completely. Same goes for the 21 EMA.

Mentions:#MA#AMD#SPY

SpaceX larger market cap than Intel, AMD , PLTR and CSCO? Is that right

AMD is about to pop if it holds above the 50 DMA, I smell a pump into earnings

Mentions:#AMD#DMA

Well since the April 2025 tariff fiasco, in May I added MRVL, AMD, AMAT, NVDA, GOOG lowering my dollar cost average. During the Iranian debacle, I've laid rather low. However I did sell my XLC & XLY and bought AMZN @ 207, they're down 7+% ytd, and most analysts are forecasting the stock to be at 300-350 by the end of 2027. I'll settle for 250-275.

Any reason why you didn't jump in after Trump's tariff fiasco in April of last year started an obvious upward swing by mid-May? I bought MRVL, AMD, NVDA, PLTR, AMAT, GOOG. Even with the Iranian debacle, I'm still up quite a bit. Sometimes, you just have to say eff it, and take a shot. I recently sold my xlc and xly and added 300 shares of NVDA ($174), I believe it will be 275-325 by the end of 2027. Obviously, this could all backfire, but t-bills @ 3.5-3.75%? Short term CD @ 4.0-4.25%? I'll take my chances in quality companies with proven track records.

Only thing I see is that they gained ground in the Steam hardware survey, but if people are investing in AMD at this point because of consumer sales, they're actually regarded.

Mentions:#AMD

Why is AMD pumping so much

Mentions:#AMD

AMD putssssssssssssss

Mentions:#AMD

Looks like AMD and INTC are the ones

Mentions:#AMD#INTC

Thanks for making me feel better taking profits on AMD at 207 when I got in at 205. I got paper hands I guess.

Mentions:#AMD

It just wiggles. Minimal rhyme or reason. My theory is that it's better than Intel, so people toss their money into AMD.

Mentions:#AMD

AMD is the only semi that didn’t break its 200 DMA on this correction. That’s strength not weakness retard.

Mentions:#AMD#DMA

AMD all gas no fuckin brakes LMAO

Mentions:#AMD

You know it's BS when AMD green...

Mentions:#AMD

AMD is advanced money destroyer. At best you are primitive money destroyer.

Mentions:#AMD

I'm a bit of an AMD myself.

Mentions:#AMD

I'm also picturing cheaping out to get the non-ECC RAM and other things that routinely fall victim to stray photons on Earth randomly flipping a 0-1 gate and now that things has errors of varying magnitudes forever more. Not to mention the enormous waste required to put the planned 5-year obsolescence cycle in space when Nvidia or AMD come out with later, greater hardware every 1-3 years.

Mentions:#ECC#AMD

bought more AMD calls for the next scam pump

Mentions:#AMD

#AMD is never dumping again

Mentions:#AMD

#AMD is never dumping again

Mentions:#AMD

A diversified portfolio is important, so split all of it between NVDA and AMD.

Mentions:#NVDA#AMD

AMD in the green wtf

Mentions:#AMD

#It would be jokes if AMD/nvda goes back up again like it’s been doing ….

Mentions:#AMD

I’m down 18.12% on AMD, I’m not locking in losses I’m selling well above cost and collecting $1k each month and eventually it will return to printing money

Mentions:#AMD

Selling my AMD shares, I think the dead cat bounce getting too real

Mentions:#AMD

Is this some flex? I’m up 26000%. I bought nvidia 10 years ago lol. I’m up 100 times on AMD. 600% on Micron. Your puny gains are puny

Mentions:#AMD

of all things to buy puts on i chose SNDK. i was watching AMD Monday and Tuesday to get a good on puts right before it gets rejected from the 50 MA and i completely forgot about it on Wednesday

Mentions:#SNDK#AMD#MA

AMD and I wouldn't even call it high risk. There is a very high chance it reaches multiple trillion market cap over next 10 years. 

Mentions:#AMD

The interesting thing I noticed on this latest bounce was that despite QQQ making it back to within 8% of ATHs all the big boys like Microsoft, AMD, NVDA, meta, Google, etc were farther away from ATHs which means that's despite a lot of buying it still wasn't the big guys leading the charge. 

Mentions:#QQQ#AMD#NVDA

You think AMD can't get to 190 or below by EOD tomorrow?

Mentions:#AMD

AMD $190 PUTS 4/2 puts were 0.02 cents today. I wonder how these will play out in the morning.

Mentions:#AMD

Buying good stocks also helps too. AMD $5-10. Buying Nvidia 10 years ago. Micron just last year…

Mentions:#AMD

Is AMD due for a big drop? Anyone looking at or holding puts?

Mentions:#AMD

First of all congratulations on paying off mortgage and car loans! An example of what I've had great (faster than ETF) growth with: AAPL/AMD/AVGO/FLEX/JBL/TSM/WM. Research those on Google Finance and look at future Bullish growth. And yes, it's pretty chip heavy but hey, all devices these days need chips!

Lolololol AMD can't sell chips without memory.

Mentions:#AMD

Yes. They're my highest conviction stock, along with Meta. AMD has higher upside though. In the short term at least. I wouldn't be surprised at all if AMD is $400 or up and Meta is $1000 or up by the end of this year. If this Iran thing goes away. I think it's higher than 50 percent chance. Both stocks definitely above those price targets by end of 2027, unless there is a major black swan.

Mentions:#AMD

I have a decent investment in AMD, I do like their outlook. If it hit 400 I would be ecstatic. 

Mentions:#AMD

$AMD is safer and likely 2-4x by end of 2027.

Mentions:#AMD

I’m long AMD and have shares. I’ve noticed over the years it tends to pull back after any sort of rally (like today’s). Combining this with the fact the mango may bring bad news at tonight’s speech, I figured I’d get some cheap puts. I don’t like options and this is purely speculative in hopes I can make a couple hundred off the current volatility.

Mentions:#AMD

Why AMD and not diversifying? Or why that one in particular?

Mentions:#AMD

I've already reduced some AI bets ($AMD, $INTC, $NVDA, $STX) and will buy more energy and fertilizer stocks before the close $BTU and $NTR look reasonable I think coal will do well regardless of what happens in SoH My AI portfolio is still much larger than though

I'm not a risky type, but I bought an AMD put. Not only does it usually decline after a big day, I'm hoping the speech tonight spooks the market.

Mentions:#AMD

If you havent been buying AMD what have you been doing

Mentions:#AMD

If AMD is up you know this shit is fake

Mentions:#AMD

Can't be, AMD is up premarket.

Mentions:#AMD

There’s no getting rich quick scheme that’s worth the risk. The best investors are the dead ones… Buy some Apple, Marriott, AMD, sit and never sell!

Mentions:#AMD

Depends on what stocks you own. I have AMD and it hit a high of $264 on Jan 23rd. Right now it is $203+ The stock was about $85 last April, 2025. I have owned it since Sept 2018. No complaints for now other then I wish the price had gone up from it's high... In May Jerome Powell will be gone and soon we will have lower interest rates. Oil prices coming down soon too. Gas prices still lower in most states then obama and biden and will get lower. Things are looking up. I wish that the SpaceX IPO was not so expensive to buy come June. Micron is in freefall from a high of $461 on March 18. Today just 2 weeks later it is $337+ It was about $64 last April 2025 so quite a huge up swing. It is falling because Google came up with software that can make memory more efficient so less ram memory is needed for data centers which affects Microns sales and stock price.

Mentions:#AMD

I love overreaction and panic selling on spectacular companies. It presents buying opportunities you would otherwise not get. The previous deepseek panic sell was an example, where I loaded up on nvdia and broadcom. If this company trades at AMD sky high valuation, it would be a 1T company.

Mentions:#AMD

We'd all be billionaires if we jumped on every good missed opportunity. Some of them - you may have even been involved in. IE: I was involved in crypto in it's early days & at one point I had over 200 bitcoin. I sold them for... a few thousand each. Was pretty stoked about that. At it's peak that'd have been worth \~$25million. Just last year I had some AMD leaps (picked up \~$110). They're up over 5000% right now. I sold for a measly \~25% profit. You just gotta accept that there are a ton of good opportunities out there, and most of them you let slip through your fingers.

Mentions:#IE#AMD

Umm... I really hope you didn't move your entire portfolio into a single stock... It's not that I disagree with your thesis--I'm bullish on MU. As mentioned I'm in SNDK and one other stock in the sector, both of which I'm also bullish on. And yet I'm looking for an exit strategy for diversification. Why? Because this massive run-up has turned a modest portfolio into 60%+ of my net worth, and it's dangerous to have that level of concentration. Even when I like both names and thing both have more upside to go. Because the gains I've made have moved me from being worried about retirement in a couple decades to knowing that with even conservative management I'll be set. Why not be concentrated? Simple... MU could have an SMCI incident. Not that I expect it, of course. But it can happen. MU could have a massive natural disaster at a major fab, or a hacker, or some other thing that cripples their business. I don't expect it. But it could happen. Or the nightmare scenario... China, due to the US being bogged down in Iran, decides to move on Taiwan. Taiwan sabotages TSMC so that China can't have it. Now the entire tech sector takes a dive all at once, because people can't get NVDA chips, or AMD chips, or Broadcom (AVGO) chips. Sure, MU would still have their fabs... But there'd be no demand because there'd be no supply of anything for their DRAM or NAND to connect to. Not that I expect it... But it's probably more likely than the other two scenarios. If I had more dry powder and wasn't concentrated in two names in the same sector, I'd have bought this MU dip. But even with dry powder I wouldn't buy anything that would make me MORE exposed to the memory/storage sector.

Had $1000 worth of AMD put and go out with a 50% loss. Seems like the market doesn’t care about the war anymore

Mentions:#AMD

the rivalry between AMD and NVIDIA is super interesting; keeps driving innovation in the GPU market. we follow stories like this closely. see our page

Mentions:#AMD

Pls let AMD reach 215 tomorrow ? For once

Mentions:#AMD

This is bullish for AMD

Mentions:#AMD

I'm so sick of this roller coaster, i've made a huge sum of money, but its pointless to sell short and incur more taxes so I just check once a week and its like +$30,000 for the week then $-25,000 for the week then $15,000 for the week .....I've even been printing money selling calls on AMD and NVDA but i'm just tired of the swings hahah

Mentions:#AMD#NVDA

AMD come on and fail the 200!!!

Mentions:#AMD

YAYYY AMD IS NOT MENTIONED GET FUCKED NVIDIA (please turn green again tomorrow)

Mentions:#AMD

Newcomer and bought MSFT, AMD, NVIA and leftover change in VOO. Hopefully Reddit's advise wouldn't bite in 10 years. In here for long term so won't be watching any numbers till 2028.

Mentions:#MSFT#AMD#VOO

had to get in AMD puts once it failed the 20 will see

Mentions:#AMD

when nvidia 200 and AMD 300?

Mentions:#AMD

Zero reason for AMD to be green

Mentions:#AMD

Maybe sprinkle in some AMD too if it keeps pulling back

Mentions:#AMD

Their PEG is 1.37, so I am not sure how you can call it cheap. AMD has PEG of 0.74. Do you think it is cheap or expensive ?

Mentions:#PEG#AMD

AMD dump, i know you wanna

Mentions:#AMD

Please tell me my AMD puts are ok

Mentions:#AMD

Should I buy 100 shares of AMD or Coreweave for the overnight pump?

Mentions:#AMD

[https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2038704756550472002?s=20](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2038704756550472002?s=20) I'm out. Good luck. ARM, META, Nvidia, Intel, AMD, are all sold out.

Mentions:#ARM#AMD

Lol that's such 2024 bear thesis. The only closest competitor was AMD and they're not even close. Not even Chinese companies have been able to get any closer

Mentions:#AMD

Every bone in my body says AMD drills to 160 but it I buy puts it goes to 240.

Mentions:#AMD

Too many to list, but the ones I see with the most potential right now for the price they are at: MSFT, RKLB, NVDA, ELF, EME, SOFI, and CELH. Others who are not quite there yet IMO and still have room to fall before they bottom, but on my watchlist: GOOGL, AXP, and AMD

AMD is like leveraged tech when the market tanks - puts.

Mentions:#AMD

AMD, PLTR and TSLA only stuff I’m positive in … the remaining is shivering

They are not down that bad, yes NVDA is down from 180 to 165, guess what it has been at 180 for months with ATH at 210. MSFT was at 380 last month, it's now at 360, AMZN being down 3.5% is a lot? It's higher now than its earnings day price! They are at similar levels, AMD is practically unchanged, semis in general are strong. If SPY wasn't down 10% you wouldn't even notice this up/downs

I'm just sitting here selling AMD covered calls.

Mentions:#AMD

Accidentally bought AMD shares today. Sold just now in the pump. 1$ loss bc of transaction costs. I feel regarded but happy I got rid of them shares holyfuck. Tomorrow is gonna be a bloodbath

Mentions:#AMD

Right now, I'm not buying yet, I'm trimming slightly but mainly holding. I'm about 40% or so in safer equities. I had Claude Code churn for half an hour doing research, maybe someone else finds this helpful. This is the chapter analysing current situation and most likely scenarios (bear/bull/base): ## PART 3: THE THREE SCENARIOS ### BEAR CASE (20% probability) **What happens**: April 6 deadline passes without a deal. Trump follows through on threats and strikes Iran's energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates by escalating Strait closure, activating Hezbollah and Houthis more aggressively, and potentially striking US military bases or allied oil facilities in the Gulf. The conflict drags into 2027. Oil hits $150-200/barrel. **Market impact**: - S&P 500 enters bear market territory (-20%+ from highs), bottoming around 4,600-4,800 - Full recession in H2 2026 (unemployment rises above 5%) - Fed forced to choose between cutting rates (to save economy) and hiking (to fight inflation) — likely freezes, worst of both worlds - Tech/AI stocks drop another 15-25% from current levels as consumer spending collapses and energy costs eat into data center profitability - Gold potentially retests and exceeds $5,279 high, silver could hit $90+ - Energy stocks and defense stocks surge further - Tanker rates stay at record levels indefinitely **What this means for your AI positions**: NVDA, GOOG, AMD, TSM all take another major leg down. BUT — and this is crucial — the underlying businesses don't break. AI demand is enterprise/government, not consumer. The capex commitments from Meta ($27B Nebius deal), Microsoft, etc. don't get cancelled because oil is $150. The stocks just get cheaper while the businesses keep growing. This is the "painful but ultimately an opportunity" scenario for a long-term AI bull. **What triggers this**: Trump following through on April 6 threats. Iran launching a major retaliatory strike. Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb. Chinese intervention on Iran's side. --- ### BULL CASE (25% probability) **What happens**: Pakistan-mediated talks produce a framework by mid-April. Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire, partial sanctions relief, and face-saving concessions. Both sides claim victory. Hormuz partially reopens within weeks, fully by June. Oil drops back to $75-85 by summer. **Market impact**: - S&P 500 rips 10-15% higher in weeks (massive short-covering rally) - Nasdaq and tech lead the recovery — they always bounce hardest from oversold conditions - AI stocks could recover most or all of their war losses within 2-3 months - Gold/silver sell off 15-20% (safe haven trade unwinds) - Tanker stocks (STNG) crash 30-40% as rates normalize - Defense stocks give back some gains but retain elevated spending levels (European rearmament is structural) - The "AI bubble is over" narrative dies — everyone remembers the AI buildout is real **What this means for your AI positions**: NVDA back toward $200+, GOOG toward $300+, AMD toward $230+. The beaten-down stocks bounce hardest. This is the scenario where you kick yourself for selling too much at the bottom. NBIS, PLTR, and other high-beta names could rally 30-50%. **What triggers this**: Iran's government, under severe economic and military pressure, accepts a face-saving deal. Trump needs a "win" before the political cost of oil prices gets too high. Both sides have incentive to find an off-ramp. Pakistan/Turkey/Egypt provide diplomatic cover. --- ### MOST LIKELY CASE (55% probability) **What happens**: A prolonged, messy, inconsistent de-escalation over 2-4 months. Here's how it plays out: 1. **April 6 deadline gets extended AGAIN** (most likely). Trump has already extended twice. He doesn't actually want to bomb power plants — the humanitarian optics are terrible and it would guarantee Iranian escalation. He's using the threat as leverage. 2. **Strait of Hormuz partially reopens** through a combination of Iran's "tollbooth" system expanding (more countries get access) and quiet diplomatic agreements. Oil doesn't drop to pre-war levels but gradually declines from $115 to $85-95 by June/July as supply partially normalizes. 3. **No formal peace deal, but an informal ceasefire** emerges by late May/June. Air strikes taper off. Iran saves face by claiming it defended itself. Trump claims he destroyed Iran's nuclear program (partially true). Neither side achieves maximum goals. 4. **The economy avoids recession** but growth slows. GDP growth drops from ~2.5% to ~1.5-2.0%. Unemployment drifts up slightly. Inflation bumps to 3.5-4% temporarily but doesn't become embedded because the Fed holds firm and energy prices gradually decline. 5. **Markets grind back slowly**. Not the V-shaped recovery of the bull case, but a steady climb back. S&P 500 reaches new highs by Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. **What this means for your AI positions**: - **Near-term (April-May)**: Continued volatility. Stocks trade on headlines, not fundamentals. Every Trump tweet moves markets 1-2%. AI stocks stay choppy but stop making new lows. - **Medium-term (June-August)**: As oil gradually drops and Hormuz partially reopens, the "stagflation" narrative fades. Tech/AI starts to outperform again as the market remembers these companies are growing 30-200% per year. - **Longer-term (Q4 2026)**: AI capex cycle is intact. Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon are not cancelling their AI buildout plans over a temporary oil shock. NVDA, ASML, MU, AMD all re-rate higher as the war fog clears. Your positions recover. **Key supporting evidence for this scenario**: - CNN analysis (March 27): "The dynamics suggest the war is likely to end with a whimper not a bang" - Bloomberg (March 25): "Markets bracing for Iran war shock are ignoring resilient US economy" - Analyst consensus: 25% chance ends by May, 45% settles fall 2026, 35% extends into 2027 - Historical pattern: Average correction recovers in ~4 months once it bottoms. Average war-related selloff recovers within 6-12 months. - Trump is transactional — he wants a deal, not a prolonged war. The economic cost to his base (gas prices) is a political liability.

I picked up AMD shares like a boomer on Friday. Up like 2% pre market and ended -3.66%. Even playing it safe I lose money

Mentions:#AMD

Buy list: AMD UUUU CRML ASML ASMI BESI (maybe) GOOG MT Am I regardi?

!banbet AMD +3% 2d

Mentions:#AMD

AMD puts printed 300% what are you talking about? Everything is dumping.

Mentions:#AMD

AMD is one of few semis still holding its daily 200 which is objectively hilarious.

Mentions:#AMD

fucking AMD V8 diesel chips

Mentions:#AMD

MU SNDK TSM INTC AMD getting rekt

ugh, feels bad man. ORCL is kinda in the shadow of those AMD vs Intel debates right now, so I get the frustration. sometimes it’s just timing, ya know? bill ackman saying it's a good time to buy quality stocks could mean we just gotta hang tight for a bit. any chance you have a plan if it dips more?

Mentions:#ORCL#AMD

Sure but the thing that's strange is NVDA and AMD pretty much flat, AVGO and TSM down about 2%. I guess MU is fucking it badly.

that voice telling you to buy MSFT and AMD? that's Jesus talking.

Mentions:#MSFT#AMD

If AMD is up pre market then I know we are absolutely FUCKED

Mentions:#AMD

This means there's an alternate universe where AMD stands for Advanced Money Doubler.

Mentions:#AMD

The AI stocks are holding up quite well. NVDA doing fine. AMD been fine. AVGO TSM… even NBIS . Let me guess you bought garbage companies without researching?

Does it make sense to completely abandon PLTR and AMD (30% of my port) to pump up other stocks like MSFT and AMZN in my port?

Loading up on cheaper shares of QQQI and SPYI in case the market trades flatter long term. Add every week to SCHG and SPMO. Also DCA'ing into AMD, Google, AMZN, and BROS.

You just said previously that you would re buy AMD in your example above now your saying your gonna buy USO In done

Mentions:#AMD#USO

Really? That makes no sense. Take the AMD example, I’m down 2k and sell, I then use the money to buy USO and make 2k. There’s no tax loss harvesting allowed because it’s still all in a tax advantaged Roth account. At least that’s my understanding. You cannot tax loss harvesting trades within your Roth account.

Mentions:#AMD#USO

NVDA is solid for long-term if you believe AI compute demand keeps scaling, but at this valuation you're paying for a lot of that growth already. The real question is whether their moat holds as AMD, custom chips (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium), and open-source inference catch up. Nebius is interesting as a bet on AI infra outside the US, but it's much higher risk. Smaller player, less proven, and geopolitical overhang from its Yandex origins. Could work as a small speculative position but I wouldn't make it a core holding. If you're looking at the AI theme for 2030, I'd think about it in layers. Chips (NVDA, AVGO), infrastructure/power (VRTM, CEG, VST), and the companies actually deploying AI to drive revenue (META, PLTR). The power angle is one a lot of people overlook. These data centers need massive amounts of electricity and the grid isn't ready. For the 1-2 year plays, honestly pay attention to what big institutions are doing in their 13F filings. When you see multiple hedge funds loading up on the same name, that's usually a signal worth watching.

Allow me to pick your brain, if you don’t mind. So I understand the reason wash sale rules exist. And I understand that how selling a loss in my brokerage account and buying the same stock in my Roth can inadvertently trigger the wash sale rule. But within my Roth account, assuming I don’t lose it all, how can a wash sale be triggered? Like say in my Roth, I lose 2k on AMD, if I sell it and buy AMD within 30 days, would that trigger a wash sale? It’s supposed to grow tax free anyway. And I can’t tax loss harvest a loss in a Roth account as long as it stays in the Roth. So why would trades trigger the wash rule? Am I over thinking it?

Mentions:#AMD