AMD

Gregangel

Long Term investor. At least 10+ years horizon. Work in progres, all ligns (except ETF 20% of the portfolio at the end of allocation period) will get the same starting allocation (continuing in 2026 window) |**ASML**|9,51%| |:-|:-| |**Small cap EU**|8,37%| |**Duolingo**|7,85%| |**ETF S&P500**|7,51%| |**Novo Nordisk**|7,34%| |**The Trade Desk**|6,68%| |[**Monday.com**](http://Monday.com)|6,23%| |**Vertex Pharma**|4,94%| |**Rocket Lab**|4,51%| |**ON Holding**|4,08%| |**Nvidia**|2,91%| |**Amazon**|2,91%| |**Sportradar**|2,81%| |**Lemonade**|2,79%| |**Alnylam Pharma**|2,79%| |**Lyft**|2,71%| |**SoundHoud**|2,70%| |**AMD**|2,58%| |**Toast**|2,23%| |**Shark Ninja**|2,11%| |**ETF USA x2**|1,98%| |**TransMedics**|1,76%| |**Paypal**|1,68%| |**Grab**|1,02%|

mathewgilson

So after all of this AMD was just another SMCI?

BosSF82

“GPU prices may be heading in the wrong direction again, and this time the reason is not mining hype or sudden demand spikes. Instead, rising memory costs are starting to catch up with manufacturers, and the impact is slowly showing up in retail prices. Over the past few months, RAM prices have gone up fast, mainly because of strong demand from AI data centers. And as a result, GPU prices are also increasing. Earlier reports already hinted that AMD could raise GPU prices by around $40 due to higher memory costs. Now, it seems Nvidia is also being affected, as recent listings show that some RTX 50-series GPUs are becoming more expensive, even in regions where prices were usually stable or below MSRP.”

Extra-Shape-9948

AMD calls have ruined me

commsnek

AMD?

No-Comment9393

44% up YTD BRK.B GOOGL AMD SOFI Quite a cheesy portfolio but it worked out somehow

Elons-Musky-Balls

I picked a bad day to yeet $3500 on AMD calls for Friday

gkdjsl

Maybe AMD can announce a deal where they give China 10% of their shares in exchange for them using their chips, lol wait they already did that with OpenAI

cisned

I can tell you the real reason but nobody will believe me: The prices are fake, and they are there to entice people when to buy and sell when they want you to by using the media and price fluctuations When the people that own the market get something wrong, like a short squeeze, things get interesting (2008 and the VW short squeeze) Those that are stuck in the wrong side of the bets, find themselves having to buy back stock that they sold naked and failed to delivered, or more importantly all the naked calls they sold, which makes it them real vulnerable to gamma increases (high volatility/large price swings) What you’re seeing is those Short Sellers/MM/Banks/Media needing to sell their assets (Bitcoin, AMD…), to cover bad bets and naked selling

LazyActive8

There is no S&P 500 company that: • Is **not** a hardware maker (Nvidia, AMD, etc.) • Is **not** a data-center / hyperscaler / cloud infrastructure company (Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud) • **Explicitly reports** a standalone AI business or division that is: • Revenue-positive **and** • Profit-positive **and** • Broken out in financial statements or earnings calls That combination simply does not exist today.

TritiumNZlol

Jensen Huang (Nvidia) and Lisa Su (AMD) are cousins too.

champagnesupernova62

Never try to catch a falling knife. Should base at some point. Once accumulation starts, start buying lots over a month or so. There's some AI ETFs to lower risk. I am not interested in AI except some mag 7 exposure AMD and GRNY.

No-Improvement3164

AMD 160 is not a meme

crazyyankee11

I played games all my life. Went shopping for a new gaming laptop. I noticed how EVERY laptop had an Nvidia sticker. I went hom and bought 5 shares of their company - this was in 2017. It was a purchase made from a personal boots-on-the-ground experience. I later went on to major in finance to try and find similar investments, much to no luck. Safe to say I will never make a trade like this again I also purchased AMD in highschool sometime in the mid 2010s in an UMTA account. Purchased for $7 and change. I watched the price go up to 15, and then back down to $12. I sold for $12 a share like a novice.

goxpro1

And AMD calls, once they run out of Nvidia GPUs bc they all blew up on their way to space they will need some more.

TheConvincingSavant

Bought $10,000 of AMD at $1.83 and got caught up in a job that I hated at the time and didn't realize what was happening until a few years later. I'll always be grateful for that sucky job.

reddit-abcde

The easy explanation is people take profit from new ATH Look at NVDA, AMD, META, MSFT, ORCL and other charts

priced_in_

Don't forget what AMD stands for

zhouyu24

I need santa to bless AMD this christmas

Fancy_Cattle_5914

NBIS is the new AMD for myself and this sub 

punker1996

What y'all think of AMD 210s Feb calls?

Illustrious-Coat3532

I closed my position at $195 back in October right before it ran up. I’ve been slowly selling it off and was adding more AMD since June. If you have a plan, execute it, if not just hold.

Eye_Of_Charon

The AMD deal changed my calculation. I do not expect it to do another 1000% in five years. It’s still a solid, long term investment, and a company that has a vision, not playing catch-up.

AntInternational6006

AMD 🚀🚀🚀🚀

AdPotential773

Intel can't even stay ahead of AMD on CPUs which are their main business. What makes you think they will do any better against Broadcom on an entirely new business?

MysteriousWin3637

Ironically TSLA has made me more money than any other stock, even AMD or NVIDIA, and yet I still don't know what it is exactly that they do.

cbusoh66

AMD is more expensive than NVDA and they've sold their soul to Sam Altman just for the privilege to use their MI450s late 2026. Not worth the risk.

commsnek

What about AMD?

cube3x3

All i want for this week is AMD to pop 10%

TheoryInttro

I have no conviction for direction today, but I hope you lot will pump my AMD bags.

wallstreetstonks

If AMD could go on a $50 run this week that would be great

xanfiles

The lure of buying 'cheaper' stocks is how one gets poor. Technology companies win because they attract top 1% ile talent and they have superior execution skills. Yes, they will be disrupted but it is never by companies who are in 2nd place and whose stocks are cheap. Google Search was never disrupted by 2nd place Bing, but a startup. NVidia when disrupted will be by a startup, but not AMD, INTC. So, if you are holding AMD because it is cheaper than NVDA, you'll lose out on NVDA gains but open to the risk of fall of AMD when the startup disrupts NVDA/AMD. The allure of 'cheap' stocks is how you under-perform S&P 500 let alone Mag 7

Positive-Rope-8289

I've heard it's the the medallion fund. My body did pretty well by following his own rules he set up for ETF's. I really likYeah I did the same thing I was up 69% in 4 months. Since COVID as soon as a big tech and BTC stock to a big hit I bought it. I did Costco because of Charlie RIP great sir Munger told me to do it then I saw the parking lot packed. Opposite goes for Target but I didn't want to Short. TSMC in video Dell AMD. I'm a pretty big tech nerd so I'm kind of just traded what I know and I like Costco I even believe in Bitcoin still somehow. I think the next play would be RAM. I am sure healthcare, energy, and defence contractors are going to be doing well but I don't like them. 

Positive-Rope-8289

Yeah I am with you. AI doesn't hallucinate as much as a lot of people think it's 1-2%,=unless if it has RAG for up to date information. I have heard that The medallion fund performs the best year over year but it's not really a hedge fund because it's only open to all of the hedge fund managers and I think that they collectively decide and vote or something it's been a while since I've looked sorry. B like a hive mind of all the hedge funds managers. Also Warren Buffett did a competition where after the fees all of the heads from managers lost anyway compared to a low fee index fund. I think Congress has done really well I think even better than now hedge funds. I know Ray Dalio had one called pure alpha he turned it around last I heard but I haven't looked in a while.  I did 69% in 4 months I know how unbelievable that sounds so I won't even tell you what I did over the long-term since 2019. You definitely have to be pretty specific like who made the most who did the best percentage wise w I have a screen shot from Microsoft Edge browser follow list demo account thing. and I had to stop because it was upsetting me because anything time zero is still zero. I was just buying the really big dips of the top tech stocks. The magnificent seven plus AMD Tesla Nvidia Amazon took a big dip 30-50 percent that's when I bought it. I bought Costco because Charlie munger told me to. Rest in peace legend. bitcoin cuz it just had gotten wrecked I think it was like 22,000 when I got it. Also I did Dell and tsmc cuz I like that they pretty much had a very nice 45° upward trend. I entirely believe that the stock market doesn't make any sense I have my suspicions that it's the Aladdin AI from BlackRock that might be skewing the results like a lot. The PE ratio of all the ones that I'm picking don't even make sense. But I'm just jumping on the band wagon and I believe that 30 to 40% I hit even with the recovery like is pretty short-term I mean I don't know I wasn't expecting them to print this much money.  Every single indicator that Michael burry talks has been happening for years and he's been really wrong. I do think Michael Burry is correct that the stock market has been showing every single indicator of being a house of cards and then some.  about 2 to 10 year treasury note being a negative yield. Death crosses PE ratios that are so out of hand it's clearly a bubble but it's been like that for literally since coldvid. Nothing about the stock market makes sense I don't think it actually has anything to do with fundamental analysis at this point. Worth doing but it is all fugazi. I think that's where Michael Berry kind of falls short he has his indicators recognizes that we are in a massive bubble and bets on it that it should pop but he also sticks to that. Nvidia is the only one actually making money on the AI boom yes it's overvalued as a stock because of its PE ratio but remember open AI which will most likely take down the entire worlds economy is really the one on betting huge in ways that doesn't even make sense but a lot of it is like you know really far out future promises I think that they spent 20 billion and 1/4 when last time I looked they had 800 million active users and I looked up how much they spent on inference amd and how much money that they had lost it kind of worked out to like $32 a person per quarter. I don't actually know why they wouldn't just change their pricing structure like why go into so much debt to get more users rather than just have people pay for the inference that they use and if they are on new user to allow them to use the not cutting edge model and then if there are power pro user just the cost of inference like the $200 a month and apparently people are actually using more than that my guess is they are allowing it not only to stay competitive but also because all businesses information arbitrage and they want to replace all human capital so they're long-term strategy I believe is to literally copy everything that people use with it in order to replace them as an employee in the future that's what they've actually said now why Michael burry isn't betting against open AI somehow instead he's betting against in video it doesn't make sense they're the ones selling the shovels not mining for gold.  Zimbabwe stock market went up when they printed a bunch of money. T-Mobile seems to be on a really big push with the mergers and acquisitions I could see that one doing well but I haven't taken a look their iPhone on his deal has been sold out and last few people I've known to get internet have gone with T-Mobile. I really do not throw same old men I do just see it as a pretty fancy chatbot and as helpful as it is in some cases it's pretty far from what I wanted to do and I also don't believe that they're actually releasing the full model actually I take that back I know they're not I had a chance GTP 3.5 turbo look at a picture I had of a schedule with the table and I asked it to take the table extract the information convert it to iCal format and export it to a CSV and it did it and then took it back. So why does it have that capability and why is it not being released I'm not sure

Heavy_Discussion3518

Take your pick - AMD, Broadcom, Oracle...

jcoigny

This isn't even possible as TSM has sold out all capacity N4 and smaller through 2027. They are the only producer capable of building the processors and share the few fabs that are capable with apple and Broadcom and AMD. Do they expect to tell apple sorry man no more iphones for the next six months ok we need more ai chips!

basalty_monolith

Yeah man I'm spread out into many chips names too, AMD, LRCX, ASML, MU, etc so I feel you there. My account got halved from prev high in 2018 when everyone else was feeling like stock market genius. Wife was comparing me to my in-laws (who were up) and telling me to get out. Good thing I didn't listen lol.

FederalExpressMan

My AMD had a 60% downturn from Mar 2024 to Mar 2025

Wowmuchrya

!banbet AMD 200.01 120h

MaterialGuy007

AI trade.  Market suddenly oversold. 6 Bil people use internet FREE 2.6 Bil under age 20 1 Bil will pay $30 a month for AI No wonder ORCL is not panicking or saying anything abt stock drop like companies usually do - e.g TSLA, AMD - these companies the mom stock drops they’re on docket to counter… Next catalyst - Denial of Tariffs - time to go long

TheoryInttro

Ok guys, Imma need all of you to go do some support purchases of AMD to save my bags. Otherwise I'm afraid their position as collateral damage from Oracle will continue.

jsha_xufuard

AMD and Alphabet have been on fire with AI hype, but chasing 2025 winners can be risky. You might want to look at undervalued tech or AI-adjacent plays that haven’t spiked yet, or even solid non-tech sectors that could benefit from the bull market. Diversifying a bit instead of just doubling down on the Magnificent Seven feels safer

punknothing

Intel XMP != AMD compatible

Forsaken_Taste3012

I did mine while the graphics situation was still insanely overpriced. Have everything where it needs to be other than that, and running graphics off of my AMD processor with the idea of grabbing a card at some point if I ever need it. How are those prices holding? Get a new GPU now, or did I miss the mark and need to wait? Which really I'm already insanely over what I need unless I find some games to get into and need the GPU for that. Or more virtual garden design work or CAD usage. I always overbuild for what I need up to the price point that makes sense and then future-proof it up to a reasonable level of usage. Just a "measley" 32gb of ram now though 😫🤣 It wasn't that long ago that I threw away a box of 250/500mb sticks lol. Maybe some gigs mixed in. But yeah, fully hate all the "as a service" other than things that actually require and make sense at that level. You can spy on my phone all you want, but I'd prefer my PC to be local and.... Personal computing.

gIIimmerpuff

They own the entire AI stack, from search monetization to Google Cloud and their custom Tensor Processing Units, TPUs. With cloud revenue and AI Overviews growing, some analysts are predicting a 50% jump, making it a powerful foundation stock. It’s also relatively cheaper than AMD based on forward earnings.

3VRMS

Nvidia and AMD, and even ARM processor companies been eating their lunch for years, Intel has to keep their prices down so the last 3 ignorant buyers still purchase their processor to use.

Fun_Tutor3479

The US market is relatively efficient. Investments tend to concentrate in the leading company within a given sector or theme. Compare NVDA to AMD. So in the long run, catch ‘falling knives’ is unlikely to outperform simply holding good companies or following the upward trend.

SunriseSurprise

You lost me at calling a PE of 74 ridiculously high in the current climate. AMD is 109.78, TSLA is 312.22, INTC after being sub-10 for ages is 630.17. Also, paragraphs. No one's going to read that, lol

Goml33

AMD

OldManYellsAtCloud12

AMD should be 1 t+

Temporary-Pen-9713

Nvidia and AMD

myironlung6

I dont see any of your comment history lmao either, did you block me loser? Resorting to personal attacks because you’re so butthurt your AI bubble is popping. You bought semis in one of the most manic bull markets in history and think you’re some sort of genius when you’re not unique, intelligent or prescient, just another delusional bull riding a wave. And AMD sold 10% of itself to psychopath Scam Altman cause it was so desperate to join in on the pump as mi500 is garbage no one wants. It’s going to be one of the worst decisions they’ve ever made when OpenAI goes bankrupt, the mag 7 cut capex and AMD collapses in on itself just like in 2001. Sincerely, Loser 😂

BasSTiD

Whole thing balances on TSM/ASML. Could see argument for AMAT argument but that’s the easiest of the 3 to get around. NVidia will come to earth somewhat. Intel has resorted to lobbying as they have had poor fabs and architecture for years and added to that with a poor response to issues recently. AMD of the 3 has the most room to run. Most of the GPU/AI architecture advantage is gone already it’s just current software is designed with CUDA in mind rather than AMD/others. Performance to watt with die size in mind on gaming (which takes AMD more seriously) already has them near even. AMD has had a huge advantage in defect rate on the CPU side due to chiplets and will almost for sure be the first to do it on the GPU/AI side. With limited foundry availability and defect parts not being comped, this is the next major step. If I was betting, ASML long, TSM long, AMD long. Uranium for power delivery as transistors are already a dozen or less atoms wide. Whoever can leverage MIT’s research into more efficient TEG’s as well which should go a good ways towards power recovery. Industry is going to be linked to energy for at least a decade now. The whole sector lost its luster a bit for me though with AI. The back turning on consumer facing products is lame (well outside AMD anyway). AMD gained data center CPU ground by hitting consumers first and proving their architectures advantages. They’re slowly doing the same with GPU’s now.

Echo-Possible

Why do you hide your comment history? Scared everyone will see your long history of shitty calls and losses? My comment history is public. You can verify I started buying AMD a year ago and bought a crap ton more when it dipped Feb-April my cost average is around $100 a share. I think it has massive upside from $210 the next 5-10 years. I have nothing to hide. I’ve been a huge bull on GOOGL and AMD and made a ton of money. Freely peruse my comment history. Feel free to share yours and stop hiding ya loser.

Echo-Possible

I’ve made a crap ton of money in AMD this year lol. Keep betting against the market and losing.

myironlung6

Ahh an AMD bagholder I see, maybe one day you'll see ATHs again

arsetard

AMD

VeryRareHuman

I invest in known reputable companies MSFT, NVDA, AMD, NKE and like others. So even if the stock value goes down, I will be back in time. Plus I keep stocks for a long time. It's mostly a reliable process for me.

doktordoc2

Nothing against AMD … not long neither short …. If you are an investor & can get more return for your dollar then why not ….. I appreciate loyalty , but it ain’t marriage that you keep hoping for improvement …..set aside your emotions & keep your delusions from cloudy your decision ….. it’s time for Sector rotation I think … Palantir , NVIDIA & now Oracle & Broadway has set the pace already ….. Cautious & Smart investors should start trimming esp if Micron this Wednesday disappoints the investors .

trentcoolyak

This guy thinks Broadcom and NVDA are the only players in the space 🙈😂 Marvell Alchip GUC Murata Mediatek AMD Samsung

Spiralgrind

If Intel gets Fab customers, and they can get down to 2-3 nm nodes, they could be a force in the future. Taiwan Semi is having staffing difficulties in Arizona, so Intel has a chance to get some share. TSMC is only producing the smallest ones in Taiwan. With China threatening a takeover of Taiwan in 2027, why wouldn’t the company develop the best capabilities in the US, where we could defend them without a world war? So, I hope the new management at Intel, can bring back the Fab potential. The design side is already far behind AMD and the other majors. It will be beyond 2027 when Intel can compete on that side of the business, regarding AI.

Fancy_Cattle_5914

Is NBIS the new AMD?

mindwip

My PLTR and AMD and tech got slaughter hard. Weed saved the day. That's like never happened

bearhunter429

Except the part I had NVDA, MSFT and AMD calls for most of the last 2 years LMAO🤌

The_Hosp75

Not yet. I still think IONQ, MU, AMD CLSK, QBTS and QUBT have room to run. Please….tell if I’m smoking crack, as it were.

TheoryInttro

Ugh. Not a good day to be in AMD and Google. But at least it was a better day than Broadcom had.

Upstairs_Whole_580

Yeah, I manage my Fathers(well, parents) portfolio for them and I bought 5000 shares of AMD and 5000 of AVGO. Today I'm getting calls asking why AVGO is crashing. Like... dude, you got it at 145. It was up to 430 or whatever after hours, but this isn't "crashing." These stocks just feel like they're in that phase where more emphasis is going to be put on the actual earnings and now 3-5 year outlook(to the upside at least). I have no doubt when NVDA reports Q4, it's stock is going to rally and be back up over 200, maybe 215. It's down to a point where it is actually a good value.

paladin258

It’s very straightforward, all you need to do is when $AMD price is about to … see more

MaxDragonMan

AMD and NVDA suffering the worst of anything I'm holding, but honestly everything else is flat. I'm sure today will end pretty neutral. Curious if we get a Santa Clause "rally" (though "rally" implies a prior downturn lol) or if we've already had one. Looking forward to the end of year Portfolio Wrapped. (Which will compose of me looking at my spreadsheet from January and somehow confusing myself.)

TheoryInttro

All right AMD, put your back into it. If Tesla can go green today, so can you.

gkdjsl

I'm saying this as someone that has way too much money in AMD, but well done.

Roxorek

META forward PE 22 NVDA forward PE 23.5 ORCL forward PE 24.5 MSFT forward PE 25.5 AVGO forward PE 26.5 GOOGL forward PE 27.5 AMZN forward PE 29 NFLX forward PE 29.5 AAPL forward PE 30.5 AMD forward PE 33 TSLA forward PE 209

ResearcherSad9357

Rising prices are great when people had a bunch of free cash handed to them to pay them. Now the consumer is getting hit from every side w/ cost increases, like the president said though, maybe we don't need however many "pencils"... I don't know what retired ppl you know but my parents costs have not gotten down since they've retired. If anything they go out more now. "Healthcare has always risen" is a bad argument and you know it. I forgot to mention I do have a small hedge, long term puts 1-2 years out on AMD, QQQ and Palantir. Less than 10%, but that's all you'd need. Missing out on some potential epic stonk gainz isn't a "risk" it's an opportunity cost I'm willing to eat in exchange for risk prevention and potential massive profits if it does crash.

Cav829

This is the macro problem atm: lots of money is sitting there that could be spent, but on what? Like we had this massive run up the last week, and if you were sitting on a basic S&P index you wouldn't know as most are down or about neutral for the week while the Russell is way up. The last tech rotation was taking all that money in Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD and moving it toward Broadcom and Google because of Gemini 3 and TPU speculation. Then everyone looked at how insanely overvalued Broadcom got yesterday even if the numbers were good and pulled out. Also Oracle seems like it's going to drag the entire sector down by itself with its insane credit risk, so investors haven't even shown a new target yet other than Apple playing the role of Switzerland in this entire AI clusterfuck equation and reaping the benefits from it. Otherwise investors may just be sitting it out until another Gemini 3 moment happens. As the op said, there's a banking run going on so that's been great for my BAC shares, but that's closing in on 12-month price target levels at this point. BAC is trading at higher than its moving average than Nvidia. I think I'm good at sitting on my existing position there for the moment lol.

gkdjsl

That guy with the AMD puts made a nice chunk of change today

Outrageous_Tip_2133

Agreed. I think it is continuation of profit-taking trend in AI stocks that started around Halloween. ORCL's disappointing earnings were an exception. Most AI stocks have had stellar earnings and very robust guidance, be it NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO, etc...

braden1066

AMD calls rn anyone ?

FartCanCivic

NVDA, AMD, INTC, but literally anywhere you look is getting its pp slapped rn. Semis are kinda silly at least until China confirms whether or not they’re gonna take the NVDA chips, I’d assume they will and do a similar play they did to TSLA (catfish in a koi pond kinda thing).

CEOofBeanz

$250,000 into AMD

TheGraeme95

AMD why must you fuck me so

rwc5078

Uh oh! My bear is coming out Sold calls against my SPY position Placed bear put spreads against AMD and NVDA. Those have not filled yet

gamjatang111

AMD next, they also have a huge deal with open ai

TheoryInttro

Yes. That's the three trading days after Christmas. It appears we're getting a Grinch Advent though, considering what's happening to my poor AMD position.

sandygws

META, ORCL, AMD, MSFT, NFLX, AVGO... next up to get rugged is HOOD, then CVNA.

Embarrassed_Tax_3181

Based on the estimates Lisa su gave during FAD, which she never misses and typically presents the bear case, would give AMD a forward PE ratio of 10. They made 29 billion last year and already have deals for over 50 billion next year, still more deals to be made obviously

Eagerbeaver98

I agree with why ppl are buying it but doesnt nvda have lower forward p/e with more revenue growth expected? AMD and broadcom have existed for decades, theyve been trying to steal and have stolen some but never to the point where nvda is less of a buy than them no?

Eagerbeaver98

so you're saying AVGO has low Forward P/E? What are their forward P/Es then, perhaps maybe its just temporarily inflated because of forward P/E. So what's AMD's forward P/E? I mean this is all great but I noticed you didnt comment at all on NVDA yet broadcom and amd are ahead in growth for the stock for the year. To be objective, you cant leave out NVDA. I would think for all 3 that NVDA has the lowest p/e and forward p/e implying its undervaluation with most projected revenue growth.

pink_ego_box

Stocks are bets on the future. Nvidia is the leader of a monopoly, and people are betting on AVGO and AMD to steal market share from them.

Eagerbeaver98

I find it hilarious how overvalued amd and broadcom are with their extremely high p/e but then nvda is super undervalued at 44 p/e. Broadcom and AMD have P/e's over 100 and cisco had over 100 p/e too when it was the dotcom era lol. funny. ppl think nvda is done and then they overvalue companies not doing as good. Although Broadcom actually has much higher growth than AMD but Ive never seen a more overvalued stock than AMD.

Wind_Ensemble

Do we risk it all on OOM 0DTE TSLA options? Or maybe AMD for the Su Bae touch? And will we be violently green?

Hamlerhead

That's kinda/sorta how I've been playing the market since 2022. Taking 20-50% profits and then re-upping when it drops. It hurts sometimes when I see certain tickers run, though. I made decent money on CRWD and AMD for instance, but if I'd just held? I dunno.

Leading_World_3813

🙏 I’ve tried to apply this pattern elsewhere but based on my testing, I have concluded that this edge lives almost exclusively with TSLA. I’ve tested this overnight logic on the usual high-volume suspects like NVDA, AMD, AAPL, META, SMCI, COIN, and MSTR. What I found after running the same backtesting on them for 2023 through 2025 were overall mixed results. NVDA had a brief hot streak in late 2023 where it worked okay (maybe a 58% to 60% hit rate), but that edge evaporated once the stock shifted to trending hard instead of mean reverting. SMCI and MSTR definitely show flashes because they act like mini TSLAs on steroids, but the risk reward is terrible because when I was wrong, the gaps were absolutely brutal. AAPL, AMD, and META were basically coin flips; they had no reliable, repeatable edge. The key here is that the core pattern ("red day plus green overnight" which means the next day tends to run green) actually works on options with any expiry, but the risk, reward, and practicality change dramatically. None of the stocks I mentioned have true daily 0DTE (Monday through Friday expiry). All of them have weekly expirations (Fridays), so I can only trade (simulate) 0DTE on Fridays and 1DTE on Thursdays (next day expiry). I specifically use 0DTE/1DTE options because they have the maximum Theta and Gamma, which lets me either: SELL puts on the bullish setup (Red Day + Green Overnight) to harvest maximum premium as the stock runs, or BUY puts on the bearish setup (Double Green) to get massive leverage on the fade (although I don’t buy puts much). Ultimately, the pattern seems to rely on a specific, perfect convergence of three things: insane retail/options gamma, "Elon level" news volatility, and thin overnight liquidity that causes the pre market crowd to massively over position themselves. TSLA is the only unicorn where all three line up consistently. Every other stock I tested was either too efficient, too slow, or the blow ups were too savage to make the long term risk reward worthwhile. I’m still looking/waiting for another stock that ever ended up with that same perfect storm of degeneracy to establish the trade card to game it.

Tim_Apple_938

I mean sure but the risk isn’t that nvidia will go bankrupt It’s more that extreme continued growth is already priced in. If the big companies bail, but they still get that 20%, yeah their business will be just fine But their VALUATION will plummet. As shareholders that’s all we care about tbh let’s be real. For graphics card I use AMD anyway #steamdeck

Material_Key5935

By what metric is AMD undervalued?

sirzoop

Yeah and during that same time imagine if you bought Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google or Apple.

2CommaNoob

AMD usually falls the hardest, fairest and longest among the chip makers.

KimboFL

I bought 34 shares of REGN at $12 in 2002. It’s been as high as $1192/share in mid-2024, it's $750 now. Bought 135 shares of AMD at $5ea in 2016. I’ve had my fair share of losers over the years but occasionally I had dumb luck.

nomorelosses1

Yessir! AMD has been a rocket this year but it seems like always finds a way to come back down

paladin258

Am looking for AMD to target gap fill to 170. Might be a bit early, yeah. Will cut if AMD closes above 225

paladin258

I like flowing with the trend, AVGO rallying, AMD fading