AMD

ContactIcy3963

Yep. My thrill ride for AMD from $2 to $7 helped pay down my high interest student loans. Little did I know it could have eventually paid for a house with an infinity pool lmao.

the_ai_wizard

ok so whats today's AMD? thats all we need to figure out

jl2l

I bought AMD when it was $9 a fucking share. Just don't ask me how **much** I bought lmao

femalediesinendgame

Oooh boy, where do I even start with this… I know I’m about to make some of you WSB regards who bought AMD at the tippity top really mad, but it’s ok. Let’s see… To be fair, the fact that it’s gone parabolic recently makes an investor who doesn’t want to incinerate their money a little suspicious that this stock is a bit overvalued, but let’s ignore that; it happens. [Here are the values of some core valuation metrics for AMD](https://prnt.sc/dOM3ewxR0QGo); even when compared to its own ridiculous historical valuation metrics, it still prints as overvalued currently, or at the very least fairly elevated. But let’s ignore this too; at the end of the day, it’s a growth stock, right? And it also has low debt. That’s a good thing. Having a clean balance sheet is nice, but not going bankrupt is the absolute bare minimum for a company trading at such top-tier valuations. Let’s start talking numbers: ROIC is a measly 9.11%. NVDA: 72.42%, AVGO: 24.39%, MU:59.39%, TSMC: 31.23%, all way cheaper (in terms of multiples) than AMD too. The highest EV/EBITDA of all these is 33.87 for AVGO; AMD’s is 103.39. You’re paying $1T for $41B of sales and $6.4B of earnings, and all of that while AMD is also doing tiny buybacks and SBC is 18.8% of operating cash flow and 22.6% of free cash flow. The company is surviving on pure growth expectations; it’s not even funny. The TTM SBC-adjusted FCF yield is a mere 0.65%. AMD is actively diluting you through all this too; its shares outstanding have been increasing 5.78% p.a. for the last 5 years. EVEN after accounting for its good revenue growth, you’re still paying an unfathomable premium for the absolute bottom of the elite semiconductor pack; almost every other major player has been growing quicker, more efficiently, with better prospects of further growth, higher gross margins, AND without diluting their shareholders as much as AMD has been at the same time. Oh, and they are ALL cheaper. I’ll add my own little analysis here; I’m going to calculate a rough estimate of a fair price for this thing, and I’ll give you a little peek at how much you’re paying for actual existing cash generation and business, and how much you’re paying for pure SPECULATION and EUPHORIA. The 3-year normalized average owner earnings (FCF-SBC-CAPEX) is a tiny $3.01B. Applying an asset-light-business multiplier of 12.5x to that, adding the current $13.11B in cash, and dividing the total by the current float, you get a structural target price of $31.12 per share… Assuming a 4% equity risk premium over the 10Y Treasury yield of 5.24%, you get an annual cost of equity of 9.24%. Capitalizing owner earnings + current cash at that rate and dividing by a current float of 1.63B shares, you get a macro target price of $28.02 per share. Current share price is COMPLETELY detached from cash-generating reality; it’s literally funny how much hopium it takes to buy at the current valuation. The growth premium multiple is 608.49/31.12=19.55x meaning that out of the 608.49 you’re paying per share right now, $577.36 (1-1/19.55=0.9488 or 94.88% of the price) is PURE SPECULATION, and $31.12 is anchored on real current cash generation. The unlevered cash yield on this thing is only 0.3%, bro… Mind you, ALL the figures in that analysis completely ignore the $3.23B in debt you’d have to pay before paying the shareholders. Taking that into account, the intrinsic values have become $29.14 and $26.04 respectively, making the case for buying even worse than it already is. The growth premium multiple becomes 20.88x the real value of the company, meaning you spend over 95% of the share price on PURE SPECULATION and yet UNPROVEN growth expectations. At this point, I think it’s relevant to remind you that we are talking about a highly cyclical industry at peak euphoria; the real question here then is what exactly on earth makes you think AMD is anything near an opportunity at this price?

SenTedStevens

I bought a bunch of AMD at $4ish. Sold at $8.80. More than doubled my money, but man, if only I held past the Bulldozer era.

ImaginaryNinja9782

If that is the case, shorting an AI stock that has a high PE like AMD, Intel, Dell or TSMC is the better bet than Micron.

ssuurr33

As I see it, if Nvidia is worth 5 trillion, then at least AMD is worth way more than 1 trillion. There’s still growth out there. I’m not bearing any time soon in such market. When Standard & Poor starts cycling AI out of their indexes, that’s the moment to pull out.

Notorious_Quan

AMD was the OG meme stock on here back in 2016, iykyk

fatfrog7

I missed AMD. I’m so sad that I missed it. 

notbadftw

Wsb whats your best performing stock you bought? Mines AMD 🤑

goxpro1

If I looked at PE my AMD wouldn’t be up 500 percent and when I bought AMD it was “heavily overvalued” according to the reddit morons.

Notorious_Quan

Agentic AI will push AMD higher, 2-3T MC by 2030

yuiop300

Nvda in 2020, after splits it ended up being 200 @ 15.8 and I continued to keep adding until the start of 2026. I bought and held other megacap tech stocks like goog, aapl, msft and AMD. For the longest time AMD was one of my worst performing stocks relative to my other stocks.

naylo44

I vividly remember telling my friend at that time that we should put all of our money in AMD. It was at that time rumors about 1st gen Ryzen were coming out. Alas, I was also a broke 20 year old

HereOnRedditAgain

What's your reasoning that AMD is not undervalued?

femalediesinendgame

PE has become the most meaningless bs there is, it’s not 1970 anymore. I agree that AMD is not undervalued, but it’s not because it has a high PE.

hoopaholik91

Are they? Goog/MSFT/AMZN are all FCF neutral or negative. SpaceX and Tesla, lolol. AAPL revenue is only up like 20% in the last 4 years. AVGO and AMD are more based on future earnings. Only NVDA and MU have materially changed the past 4 years

Lawlith117

Back in like 2016 I was talking about how AMD is severely undervalued at like 3/share. I kick myself in the ass so much for being a broke 20 year old lmao

Tallwhitedude123

I think that you’re thinking about the hyperscalers. The pick and shovel plays like MRVL, NVDA, AMD, ALAB, etc all have very high margins and low CapEx.

chocohase

I think it helps if you are very familiar with an industry.. otherwise just pick an ETF. I picked up AMD when they won the console business and the moment Jim Keller came back was the deciding moment. While everyone shouted bankruptcy I was certain consoles were a life line. 10+ years later I am still holding. For the rest ETF, I simply don't have time nor the knowledge of sectors outside tech.

marvology

I'm a bear and I'm shameless about it. No way in hell I'm buying an on-paper shitty stock because the price and high and seems to never go down (looking at you Elmo). I'll buy what I think has the potential to go up without getting rug pulled. I still expect an implosion especially when there are so many astronomically overvalued stocks propping up this puppet show of an economy. But, that doesn't mean I don't buy stocks. I sold my AMD $610s (averaged 180s), even sweated out that fall to $460s. Heavy in gold now, I probably should have sold more when I was up +90%, but I rode the rest down to 40% and I'll happily sit here while I'm up.

flappysack-

I lost 100k to Alibaba.  It was a fraction of AMD earnings but it still hurts.

bearhunter429

REVEREND BEARHUNTER'S BOOK OF GENESIS, CHAPTER 6: WALL STREET EDITION "And the Lord spake unto Noah, saying, Thou shalt build an ark, for a great flood cometh upon the earth. "And Noah gathered two of every animal, two of every bird, and two of every stock." Noah asked, "Lord, why hast thou commanded me to bring two shares of NVIDIA?" And the Lord replied, "Because, Noah, thou shalt need to average down during the Great Correction." 💀 "And Noah did bring forth two shares of NVDA, two shares of AMD, two shares of GOOG, and two shares of TSLA. Then came the Great Flood. 🌊 The bears drowned. The bulls survived. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high. #LMAO🤌

PeachScary413

Your company is most likely getting a heavily subsidised API price or some kind of deal.. if you were to buy tokens at their true cost, or whatever Anthropic needs to charge for even an attempt at making these huge profits you would all be running local Chinese LLMs at this point. The reason why Nvidia can make these huge profits is because they have essentially locked in the market to CUDA decades ago and with AMD continously dropping the ball they have zero competition and can charge whatever they want. Anthropic is a toggle switch in an UI away from being replaced with OpenAI or anything else really, it's super easy and convenient to switch LLM providers so it will be a race to the bottom. That's why you are seeing the constant fearmongering, because they need scared people to allow them to be "regulated" stopping any new players or local LLMs and then they can freely price fix and divide the market among themselves.

nostra77

Do you still use Excel would you say Excel is worth 2T Market Cap alone? It’s preposterous to go IPO with this valuation. let’s say you invest right now the only way to get the same return like Amazon or Netflix or AMD etc it would be equivalent of all the world wealth in market cap.

lipmanz

AMD tripling in 6 months to become a trillion dollar company really should be one of the biggest stock stories of the year

adventuresquirtle

Y’all do realize things can’t go up forever right like AMD and MU just had stellar runs. People take profits eventually

First-Hotel4694

Market closed and I forgot to post the trades. OOPs!!! Did a couple of roll outs and ins today. I've got some long dated put positions in MSFT that I keep rolling up and in as price allows so as to close them out earlier and I take a small profit while doing so. Took a profit when I initially sold them and again when I first rolled them and several more times when I once again rolled them. https://preview.redd.it/fxc2f3hlzhuh1.png?width=1203&format=png&auto=webp&s=25bb63296d155b97ccbabc42b4dcd6f833c7c715 |Date|Execution Time|u/L Symbol|Type|Qty|Description|Price|Est. Fee|Est. Comm|Est. Amount|Open/Close| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |10/9/2026|3:44:17 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $435 Put|$1.17|$0.01|$0.15|($117.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|3:44:17 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Oct 30 '26 $480 Put|$2.12|$0.02|$0.15|$211.83|Open| |10/9/2026|2:59:38 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $545 Put|$2.59|$0.01|$0.15|($259.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|2:59:38 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $550 Put|$3.08|$0.02|$0.15|$307.83|Open| |10/9/2026|2:59:02 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $545 Put|$2.59|$0.01|$0.15|($259.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|2:59:02 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $550 Put|$3.08|$0.02|$0.15|$307.83|Open| |10/9/2026|2:52:00 PM|PFE|Sold Short|4|PFE Oct 09 '26 $28 Call|$0.18|$0.05|$0.60|$71.35|Open| |10/9/2026|2:04:25 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $435 Put|$1.21|$0.01|$0.15|($121.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|2:04:25 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Oct 30 '26 $480 Put|$2.23|$0.02|$0.15|$222.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:57:05 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.84|$0.01|$0.15|($184.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:57:05 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.48|$0.02|$0.15|$247.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:56:54 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.85|$0.01|$0.15|($185.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:56:54 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.49|$0.02|$0.15|$248.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:56:40 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.85|$0.01|$0.15|($185.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:56:40 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.49|$0.02|$0.15|$248.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:56:17 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.85|$0.01|$0.15|($185.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:56:17 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.49|$0.02|$0.15|$248.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:56:00 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.48|$0.02|$0.15|$247.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:56:00 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.85|$0.01|$0.15|($185.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:55:48 PM|MSFT|Bought To Cover|1|MSFT Dec 18 '26 $425 Put|$1.89|$0.01|$0.15|($189.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|1:55:48 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Nov 20 '26 $460 Put|$2.52|$0.02|$0.15|$251.83|Open| |10/9/2026|1:52:15 PM|NVDA|Bought To Open|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $217.50 Put|$0.59|$0.03|$0.30|($118.33)|Open| |10/9/2026|1:52:15 PM|NVDA|Sold Short|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $220 Put|$0.87|$0.03|$0.30|$173.67|Open| |10/9/2026|10:52:19 AM|MU|Bought To Cover|1|MU Oct 09 '26 $1035 Put|$13.30|$0.01|$0.15|($1,330.16)|Close| |10/9/2026|10:52:19 AM|MU|Sold To Close|1|MU Oct 09 '26 $1030 Put|$9.46|$0.03|$0.15|$945.82|Close| |10/9/2026|10:52:19 AM|MU|Sold Short|1|MU Oct 12 '26 $1000 Put|$4.50|$0.02|$0.15|$449.83|Open| |10/9/2026|9:49:36 AM|IBM|Bought To Open|1|IBM Oct 23 '26 $212.50 Put|$4.05|$0.01|$0.15|($405.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:49:36 AM|IBM|Sold Short|1|IBM Oct 23 '26 $215 Put|$4.84|$0.02|$0.15|$483.83|Open| |10/9/2026|9:48:38 AM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $545 Put|$2.83|$0.01|$0.15|($283.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:48:38 AM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $550 Put|$3.31|$0.02|$0.15|$330.83|Open| |10/9/2026|9:48:00 AM|IBM|Bought To Open|1|IBM Oct 23 '26 $212.50 Put|$3.58|$0.01|$0.15|($358.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:48:00 AM|IBM|Sold Short|1|IBM Oct 23 '26 $215 Put|$4.35|$0.02|$0.15|$434.83|Open| |10/9/2026|9:47:34 AM|AAPL|Bought To Open|2|AAPL Oct 16 '26 $312.50 Put|$0.33|$0.03|$0.30|($66.33)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:47:34 AM|AAPL|Sold Short|2|AAPL Oct 16 '26 $315 Put|$0.47|$0.03|$0.30|$93.67|Open| |10/9/2026|9:44:55 AM|AAPL|Bought To Open|2|AAPL Oct 16 '26 $312.50 Put|$0.34|$0.03|$0.30|($68.33)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:44:55 AM|AAPL|Sold Short|2|AAPL Oct 16 '26 $315 Put|$0.47|$0.03|$0.30|$93.67|Open| |10/9/2026|9:42:26 AM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $545 Put|$2.51|$0.01|$0.15|($251.16)|Open| |10/9/2026|9:42:26 AM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 23 '26 $550 Put|$2.99|$0.02|$0.15|$298.83|Open| |10/9/2026|9:38:45 AM|AMD|Bought To Cover|2|AMD Oct 16 '26 $550 Put|$1.13|$0.03|$0.30|($226.33)|Close| |10/9/2026|9:38:45 AM|AMD|Sold To Close|2|AMD Oct 16 '26 $547.50 Put|$0.96|$0.03|$0.30|$191.67|Close| |||||||||||| ||||||||||$1,134.58||

Less-Map-6969

Fuck MU, fuck SNDK, Fuck AMD, Fuck AI. Dipshit ass stock

samwichse

Bulldozer wasn't... terrible. But it wasn't what they needed for the general market (it was certainly a lot of integer cores for the money, which is what needed at the time so I did a lot of good work on a couple dual proc bulldozer machines). But yeah, Ryzen was/is the shit. Bulldozer was AMD 's Netburst

Faban1

AMD go back up

dljmonkeyboiz

Should probably just hold NVDA, MU, AAPL, MSFT and AMD and just chill.

Appropriate_Steak871

unless you’re worried about that crazy “$135k\~” tax bill, a good strategy is to take a slice—maybe $5k–$10k—before you even think about “sell” and let the rest sit, especially since AMD’s 2nm roadmap and AI demand looks solid. if you have a Roth or 401k you could funnel everything there to gobble the higher bracket. drop the rest for a few more “beats”. stop trading based on emotions; set a price target and then let the market do its thing.

Syllabub_Visual

Reddit says you can’t get rich working for someone else. Okay I’ll say that’s true probably ~75% of the time (but even if you start a company your board become your bosses, invest in real estate well the clients become your bosses), but there are people who became VERY VERY rich working for others (think ballmer).  Personal anecdote, think I’ve gotten pretty pretty rich from selling my startup though I still had to convince the buyers that there was a reason for them to buy it and my physician father got pretty rich through starting medical practices then going into hospital private equity, so neither of us worked for anyone else, but his brother who’s DEAD from a BRAIN ANEURYSM was a big deal partner at one of these big law firms who did many big m&a deals. Knew he was pretty well off but the estate filings revealed a net worth far far bigger than anyone imagined (will just say it was CLOSE to the big B) and he never started a business or anything like that. Plus all these CEOs of the companies we yolo on are the picture of getting rich working for someone else. Lisa su did it and I’d say it’s VERY well deserved. I guess the moral of the story is to by AMD calls…

trondergr55

Agreed. AMD executed perfectly with Ryzen, and was in the right place at the right time for AI to realize a ton of value from their work. Intel's position is a true generational fumble tbh. There was a lot of skepticism, me included, of AMD when they announced Ryzen given the Bulldozer debacle few years earlier. But they really knocked it out of the park with Ryzen.

Useful-Resist-5964

Fair point. But even TSLA went from 400 to like 180 a few years ago. Idk if AMD will crash, but 1T market cap on a few billion of earnings seems a little nuts.

CachapaBoy

DELL all up but NVDIA and AMD bleeding, interesting

Useful-Resist-5964

I don't even own puts on it, but I know AMD is going to fucking explode. 2BN quarterly earnings and an almost 1T market cap. Absolutely fucking stupid bro lol.

thenorthernwhiteboy

Intel on its way back to 90$ lmao. AMD at ath and Intel can’t break 130

KAW42089

AMD to 600 so I can load up some calls!

Profiteer23

Holy god. Wtf is AMD doing

CD274

It's moved 2x that of AMD all year tbh

samwichse

Hah! I bought in 2017 right after the Ryzen architecture announcement. My thesis was that Intel were acting like a bunch of shitbags and I hoped AMD's new chips would eat their ability to set ridiculous prices and triple AMD's market share in servers. Then Intel spent like 6 years repeatedly shooting itself in the dick and AMD executing perfectly. Then AI.

miss_L_fire

Thankfully no but AMD, MU and SOXL 🥲

Kitchen-Bad-1045

come on AMD you sob

Koki4kok

3 entries in AMD it switched direction 2 seconds for the 3 of them after my entry. They are monitoring me and I hope this piece of trash stock gets delisted

BadaBingSil

was up $5K at peak on $AMD puts but that rebound cut me down to $2K profit all good though - gotta know when to fold em

KAW42089

Let AMD hit 600 so I can full port LEAPs

0201037464793921170

So what happened to AMD this time?

No-Put2311

Just delist intel fuck this piece of shit company. Won’t pump when AMD pumps and when we drill it drills even harder

BadaBingSil

up over 100% on $AMD puts and it hasn't even been 30 minutes gg

Creep89

So AMD calls wasn’t the best thing I guess

HaveTwoBananas

Cathie Wood dumpds, AMD, Meta, Alphabet. Time to buy!

Neader

Imagine my disappointment. 35% of port in AMD calls purchased yesterday. Filled with joy when I see it's up 1.5% a min before open. Now look at it. Disgusting.

CertfiedPoopMember

you’re a gamer stocks guy buying AMD that long ago?

Pure_Spinach327

Well they did get 10% of AMD also. They could lose the ai battle and still be worth 100 billion or more. This whole thing has gotten so crazy as NVDA owns part of openai, I think and now benefits if they lose market share to AMD. lol.

DavidBergerson

You and I are not that far off in thinking. This is purely my opinion; I have no factual basis for any of it. To me, AI is what search was in \~1995-2005 timeframe. So many companies offered a product. You had Yahoo, Ask Jeeves, Google, BING, etc. What happened? They all fought to be number 1. Why? Because they realized being relegated to 2nd place wasn't good enough. A huge chasm separates 1st and 2nd. What I see happening now is everyone fighting to become the verb: Google. This is also akin to the fiber rollout during that timeframe. You had so much infrastructure being built out and . . . well, there is probably still some dark fiber that was laid then that is not used. DWDM impacted that :) I see this as HUGELY capital intensive. Capital is in hardware, power, and location. We see everyone cheering on nVidia. To me nVidia is the Intel of the 90s. They are so big that they dictate what is being built. What company told Intel goodbye? Apple. Apple was smart enough to buy a small company with chip-making expertise. By controlling the hardware, the OS, the . . . everything, they could make silicon that ran cooler, faster, and used less power than anything Intel ever made. AMD followed that model and then created a better product. Now, I see Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon all saying, "Jensen, we no longer need your product." Now I see those companies struggling with a few things as they roll that out. One, they're also tied to data center power requirements. Where will they get that power? This is why I am watching what is going on with the tiny nuke plants. They'll also need memory and fabrication. TSMC can only produce so much, and right now demand outstrips supply. ASML can only make so many machines; demand outstrips supply. And the fact that there are 3 memory companies . . . argh. As much as I dislike a lot of what Musk says, having the capital and demand to build your own fab is some serious power there. I am sure that the Googles/Apples/Metas/Amazon's of the world would love to build their own fabs and control their own destiny. So once the big boys figure out how to make their own efficient silicon, find the ability to make it, along with memory, nVidia will be hurting. Their moat will disappear. For those who think I am wrong about that, this concept is taught in 2000-level econ classes. Basically, it goes like this: Create a business with high margins and no competitors, then watch as competitors suddenly appear and think they can get those same high margins. They will force a price war, and the business will end up with tight margins.

Emotional-Breath-838

I'm very close to going full port on QSI and CLGN. CLGN is no longer a biotech. They're creating a new type of computer called a LPU because it uses lasers to do room temperature, speed of light calculations that typically take days and days for CPU/GPU clusters. It's not Quantum but it gets us far down the road on larger mathematical equations (e.g. calculating optimal routes for massive fleet deployments or calculating corrosion damage on airplane parts.) QSI announced yesterday that they have now effectively sequenced 19 of 20 amino acids. This is a game changer for biology and medicine. The precision at 19 makes the 20th almost a non-issue but they're convinced they'll hit 20 before EOY. Full commercialization to start Q1 2027. I'll hold onto my SPCX and AMD but I'm not expecting massive upside from here for a while. The market right now is getting narrower and narrower and more narrow. That's not a good sign. When I was younger, I lived in San Diego and we would either go into Tijuana or there were top quality Mexican Tequila houses in SanD itself. One of these places had a wide assortment of Mezcals, which are like Tequilas but they use Peyote cactus rather than Agave cactus. The problem is that Peyote can be converted into a hallucigenic. Anyway, my point is that I was having one or three too many shots of the Mezcal and that violates the second rule of Mezcal. The first rule of Mezcal is don't drink Mezcal. The second rule is that if you ignore the first rule, you must respect the Mezcal. My lack of respect manifested itself in the form of a "narrowing of vision." At first, I could see all around me like a normal, sober individual. Then, my vision narrowed. Eventually, I was looking through a vertical slit - not horizontal like I was squinting but more like a fetus moving through the birth canal trying to determine whether to pass through into the flourescent lights of the delivery room. And then I blacked out entirely. It was two (three?) days later that I remembered what I was doing at the mezcal bar and it wasn't a proud moment. They had the Reverend Al Green on the Karaoke and I decided to perform it as if I were Jim Morrison. The only saving grace was that most of my friends that were in attendance that evening pretended that they didn't know me (ever again) so that I don't have to re-live the horror of that night (although to be fair, most of them probably didn't remember a thing about it either. Such is Mezcal.). Anyway, the reason I bring this up is because the market appears to be saturated on Mezcal. Biotech was hot but it's rate sensitive and now the money doesn't flow there any more. I remember when software had a one week boost and now that's over. Semis and memory and storage and even space have all had their day in the sun and yet I can't help feeling that the overwhelming majority of the breadth of the market is in a descending bear market and it's only a matter of time before the bulls lose consciousness. Fear not. We will wake up a few days later and we will look at things like Wendy's, Nike as a value play, Hertz for a short squeeze and most of the meme stocks as if they were a bad memory of standing on a dining table, drunk on mezcal belting out "Take Me to the River." We will be ashamed but we will move forward and market breadth will return.

Electrical_Star_8524

If I sell my AMD shares, would that make me gay?

BoydemOnnaBlock

3dfx was pretty big a bit before the dot com bubble, I recall Nvidia scooped them up at some point. ATI was another big one that AMD eventually bought

AshamedTax8008

**Rank** **Ticker** **Trade thesis** **Risk** 1 **QQQ** Broad technology rebound following Thursday’s selloff Very high 2 **NVDA** Potential semiconductor relief rally after a 2.9% decline Extreme 3 **AMD** High-beta semiconductor rebound Extreme 4 **TSLA** Momentum-driven upside breakout Extreme 5 **SPY** Broad-market rebound following economic data Very high

Itry31

Buy AMD?

Chalon509

Don’t ever sell AMD

Current-Bus-6069

Curious what triggered you to invest in AMD that long ago?

Dude_HaHa

God I saw what you did for ASTS, I want the same for AMD and NVDA as well.

Wonko-D-Sane

As a Europoor Canadian living in America… I fucking love it! And I am timing my (re) entry into that stock. I’m sure some dumb they bear will drive it down for it to be with swapping my NVDA and AMD, but this is will be a generational wealth building stock, I mean for fuck sake, have you seen the size and payload is starship, while a much of kindergarten dropouts didn’t learn about the water cycle and chirp that evaporative cooling “uses up water” so data centers are politically toxic even for rednecks here in Texas </unhinged rant>

Echo-Possible

Hahaha. Aside from OpenAI's reported numbers a bunch of other big tech companies see the actual flow of OpenAI revenue go directly through their business and around OpenAI. For example, Amazon, Microsoft and Google host OpenAI and Anthropic models in their managed API service so that revenue goes directly to their cloud business from their many enterprise cloud customers and does not flow through OpenAI books first. No way for OpenAI to game those numbers. So there are other direct growth signals outside of whatever OpenAI is reporting. And I have been very very happy with the outcomes of the AI boom thus far. Made a crap ton of money on AMD and GOOGL.

Mental_Calendar2227

Honestly, for a 4K gain a lot of folks just hold hell for the upside – I’ve seen a 6K+ swing on AMD do that. If you’re uncomfortable with that long‑tail risk, knock it maybe at \~2K and surrender the rest to a tax‑deferred account. don’t let the ‘red’ scare you; lock a chunk and ride the next wave.

Top-Meaning2626

I am so stoooopid, thats right NVDA and AMD gives OpenAi 10bil each and openAi can go back and buy $260billion in chips

Top-Meaning2626

Damn, OpenAI was supposed to buy $260 billion in NVDA and AMD chips with that $20 billion they was short Fuck they not gonna buy those now

First-Hotel4694

I just posted my trades for today so I'd have something to show all of you and now I can't find them so I'm going to do it again. I started the day out with a buddy for a late breakfast/bullshit session then went and got gas, did some grocery shopping, stopped for a soda and went home where I put the groceries away, read the mail checked on my positions, fixed lunch, came on here and spent an hour or so answering questions/comments and finally decided to trade so as to have an example to use for our later discussions and now I don't where it went so I'm looking to do it again. Okay it worked once again. Take a look and tomorrow I will look to begin explanations of how I cam about those trades. Fair warning I may not have much time as tomorrow is expiration day and my wife is coming home after being away for two weeks. I miss her even if she is my royal pain in the ass I still miss her. https://preview.redd.it/8l1q7btiyauh1.png?width=1304&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a31955467da9fec75a943c4133154b3b7cc84fb |Date|Execution Time|u/L Symbol|Type|Qty|Description|Price|Est. Fee|Est. Comm|Est. Amount|Open/Close| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |10/8/2026|3:32:12 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $547.50 Put|$1.50|$0.01|$0.15|($150.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:32:12 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $550 Put|$1.68|$0.02|$0.15|$167.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:24:48 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $235 Put|$0.68|$0.01|$0.15|($68.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:24:48 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.94|$0.01|$0.15|$93.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:59 PM|AVGO|Bought To Open|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|($78.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:59 PM|AVGO|Sold Short|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $327.50 Put|$0.94|$0.01|$0.15|$93.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:42 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $547.50 Put|$1.65|$0.01|$0.15|($165.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:42 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $550 Put|$1.84|$0.02|$0.15|$183.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:23 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $235 Put|$0.69|$0.01|$0.15|($69.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:23 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.95|$0.01|$0.15|$94.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:08 PM|AVGO|Sold Short|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $327.50 Put|$0.93|$0.01|$0.15|$92.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:08 PM|AVGO|Bought To Open|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.77|$0.01|$0.15|($77.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:47 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $322.50 Put|$0.58|$0.01|$0.15|($58.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:47 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|$77.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:35 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $322.50 Put|$0.58|$0.01|$0.15|($58.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:35 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|$77.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:10 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $242.50 Put|$1.23|$0.01|$0.15|($123.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:10 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $245 Put|$1.70|$0.02|$0.15|$169.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:18:55 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $242.50 Put|$1.24|$0.01|$0.15|($124.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:18:55 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $245 Put|$1.71|$0.02|$0.15|$170.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:15:02 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|2|AMZN Oct 16 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.37|$0.03|$0.30|($74.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:15:02 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|2|AMZN Oct 16 '26 $240 Put|$0.52|$0.03|$0.30|$103.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:13:17 PM|TSM|Bought To Open|2|TSM Oct 16 '26 $432.50 Put|$2.91|$0.03|$0.30|($582.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:13:17 PM|TSM|Sold Short|2|TSM Oct 16 '26 $435 Put|$3.40|$0.04|$0.30|$679.66|Open| |10/8/2026|3:12:35 PM|CSCO|Bought To Open|2|CSCO Oct 23 '26 $106 Put|$0.28|$0.03|$0.30|($56.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:12:35 PM|CSCO|Sold Short|2|CSCO Oct 23 '26 $107 Put|$0.40|$0.03|$0.30|$79.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:10:15 PM|BAC|Sold Short|2|BAC Oct 16 '26 $50 Put|$0.18|$0.03|$0.30|$35.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:03:29 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|2|GOOG Oct 23 '26 $322.50 Put|$1.39|$0.03|$0.30|($278.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:03:29 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|2|GOOG Oct 23 '26 $325 Put|$1.75|$0.03|$0.30|$349.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:00:34 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|2|JNJ Oct 16 '26 $247.50 Put|$1.64|$0.03|$0.30|($328.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:00:34 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|2|JNJ Oct 16 '26 $250 Put|$2.29|$0.03|$0.30|$457.67|Open| |10/8/2026|2:55:47 PM|NFLX|Sold Short|1|NFLX Oct 16 '26 $74 Call|$0.36|$0.01|$0.15|$35.84|Open| |10/8/2026|2:52:04 PM|NVDA|Bought To Open|2|NVDA Oct 23 '26 $217.50 Put|$1.72|$0.03|$0.30|($344.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|2:52:04 PM|NVDA|Sold Short|2|NVDA Oct 23 '26 $220 Put|$2.21|$0.03|$0.30|$441.67|Open| |10/8/2026|2:51:42 PM|NVDA|Bought To Open|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $217.50 Put|$0.89|$0.03|$0.30|($178.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|2:51:42 PM|NVDA|Sold Short|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $220 Put|$1.22|$0.03|$0.30|$243.67|Open| |||||||||||| ||||||||||$836.64||

First-Hotel4694

Okay if this works you'll have an example of what I trade. I decided to make some trades today although first I had a late breakfast/bullshit session with a buddy the I got gas, went grocery shopping and bought a soda. Went home put things away read the mail and fixed lunch. While I was home I sort of kept eye on my computer in the other room. I sat down on here and started answering questions/comments for over an hour and then said the hell with it and started trading figured I'd do some trades to show you what I trade and going forward I can show you how I arrived at those trades. So let's see if it will load. It wasn't a very profitable day but I made a little bit of money now comes the hard part hanging onto it. 😂 https://preview.redd.it/xnzdognnwauh1.png?width=1304&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a55bbcc97558612317d8d4f47623c46824012dd |Date|Execution Time|u/L Symbol|Type|Qty|Description|Price|Est. Fee|Est. Comm|Est. Amount|Open/Close| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |10/8/2026|3:32:12 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $547.50 Put|$1.50|$0.01|$0.15|($150.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:32:12 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $550 Put|$1.68|$0.02|$0.15|$167.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:24:48 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $235 Put|$0.68|$0.01|$0.15|($68.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:24:48 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.94|$0.01|$0.15|$93.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:59 PM|AVGO|Bought To Open|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|($78.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:59 PM|AVGO|Sold Short|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $327.50 Put|$0.94|$0.01|$0.15|$93.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:42 PM|AMD|Bought To Open|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $547.50 Put|$1.65|$0.01|$0.15|($165.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:42 PM|AMD|Sold Short|1|AMD Oct 16 '26 $550 Put|$1.84|$0.02|$0.15|$183.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:23 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $235 Put|$0.69|$0.01|$0.15|($69.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:23 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|1|AMZN Oct 23 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.95|$0.01|$0.15|$94.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:08 PM|AVGO|Sold Short|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $327.50 Put|$0.93|$0.01|$0.15|$92.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:20:08 PM|AVGO|Bought To Open|1|AVGO Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.77|$0.01|$0.15|($77.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:47 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $322.50 Put|$0.58|$0.01|$0.15|($58.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:47 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|$77.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:35 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $322.50 Put|$0.58|$0.01|$0.15|($58.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:35 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|1|GOOG Oct 16 '26 $325 Put|$0.78|$0.01|$0.15|$77.84|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:10 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $242.50 Put|$1.23|$0.01|$0.15|($123.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:19:10 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $245 Put|$1.70|$0.02|$0.15|$169.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:18:55 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $242.50 Put|$1.24|$0.01|$0.15|($124.16)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:18:55 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|1|JNJ Oct 23 '26 $245 Put|$1.71|$0.02|$0.15|$170.83|Open| |10/8/2026|3:15:02 PM|AMZN|Bought To Open|2|AMZN Oct 16 '26 $237.50 Put|$0.37|$0.03|$0.30|($74.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:15:02 PM|AMZN|Sold Short|2|AMZN Oct 16 '26 $240 Put|$0.52|$0.03|$0.30|$103.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:13:17 PM|TSM|Bought To Open|2|TSM Oct 16 '26 $432.50 Put|$2.91|$0.03|$0.30|($582.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:13:17 PM|TSM|Sold Short|2|TSM Oct 16 '26 $435 Put|$3.40|$0.04|$0.30|$679.66|Open| |10/8/2026|3:12:35 PM|CSCO|Bought To Open|2|CSCO Oct 23 '26 $106 Put|$0.28|$0.03|$0.30|($56.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:12:35 PM|CSCO|Sold Short|2|CSCO Oct 23 '26 $107 Put|$0.40|$0.03|$0.30|$79.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:10:15 PM|BAC|Sold Short|2|BAC Oct 16 '26 $50 Put|$0.18|$0.03|$0.30|$35.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:03:29 PM|GOOG|Bought To Open|2|GOOG Oct 23 '26 $322.50 Put|$1.39|$0.03|$0.30|($278.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:03:29 PM|GOOG|Sold Short|2|GOOG Oct 23 '26 $325 Put|$1.75|$0.03|$0.30|$349.67|Open| |10/8/2026|3:00:34 PM|JNJ|Bought To Open|2|JNJ Oct 16 '26 $247.50 Put|$1.64|$0.03|$0.30|($328.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|3:00:34 PM|JNJ|Sold Short|2|JNJ Oct 16 '26 $250 Put|$2.29|$0.03|$0.30|$457.67|Open| |10/8/2026|2:55:47 PM|NFLX|Sold Short|1|NFLX Oct 16 '26 $74 Call|$0.36|$0.01|$0.15|$35.84|Open| |10/8/2026|2:52:04 PM|NVDA|Bought To Open|2|NVDA Oct 23 '26 $217.50 Put|$1.72|$0.03|$0.30|($344.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|2:52:04 PM|NVDA|Sold Short|2|NVDA Oct 23 '26 $220 Put|$2.21|$0.03|$0.30|$441.67|Open| |10/8/2026|2:51:42 PM|NVDA|Bought To Open|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $217.50 Put|$0.89|$0.03|$0.30|($178.33)|Open| |10/8/2026|2:51:42 PM|NVDA|Sold Short|2|NVDA Oct 16 '26 $220 Put|$1.22|$0.03|$0.30|$243.67|Open| |||||||||||| ||||||||||$836.64||

trondergr55

?? Last time AMD stock split was in 2000.

softarrears9879

35 stocks is basically running your own ETF without the management fee, trim the overlap first. You've got AVGO and NVDA in tech, plus PLTR and AMD which all ride similar hype waves so maybe pick two you actually trust long term. Also your consumer side is heavy with both COST and WMT just mirroring each other.

trondergr55

Indeed. It's only up 3,963% now instead of 4,151% very disappointing performance from AMD.

TrickyDickCheney

Do or die time for AMD

Aggressive-Ad-2707

Come on earnings don’t even matter. Stock prices are based on sentiment. Just look at Tesla SpaceX and AMD

Valvador

> GOOG, AMD, TSLA, SPCX, AMZN, DRTS That's absolutely hilarious.

i_empathetic

Already 10%+ AMD in the non-gambling side of things 👍

trondergr55

This was in 2018 right after the whole Intel meltdown vulnerability stuff. My "thesis" at the time (if you can call it that) was that all the big cloud providers back then were 99% Intel, and that they will try to balance their hardware to reduce such risk in the future. If I recall correctly, this was pre-zen from AMD and AMD server chips kinda sucked, but I figured maybe they will diversify 10% or 20% just to have options for very critical stuff if another vulnerability arises. I was timid about this thesis though because shortly after intel's meltdown issue, a bunch of similar vulnerabilities were also found in AMD chips. So I figured it would be a small diversification that should bump AMD revenue a bit.

gopoohgo

Fuck no why.   Agentic runs on Epyc CPUs.  They are selling 2028 inventory until the recent announcement of TSMC 2nm production expansion with AMD

Defiant-Fee-7550

wow. even the endless AMD manipulation is failing :pika:

AdvancedMatch6157

AMD my goodness lol

DudebroMcCool

I'm actually holding the bag for AMD

bitingthedust1977

Is it finally time to short AMD

LightningSunflower

How’d you decide to buy AMD?

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

AI GPU cycle = CPU cycle = memory cycle = storage cycle - AI GPU: NVDA (15x), AVGO (20x), AMD (40x) - CPU: AMD (40x), Intel (54x), ARM (126x) - Memory: Micron (6.2x), SK Hynix (6.4x) - Storage (SSD): SanDisk (7.0x) - Storage (HDD): Seagate (25x), Western Digital (21x) If AI spend goes higher, everyone in the cycle goes up. Memory would go even higher since they have the lowest multiples If AI spend goes down, all stocks crash. But Memory doesn't have that far to go down since the multiples are so low already Basically everyone should move in the same direction, memory has the largest upside, and the least downside on valuation

Emotional-Breath-838

I'm trying (it's not at all obvious) to pick companies that have room to run. I am terrified of Eli Lilly's patent cliff. Broadcom is a fine company but I feel like AMD has the momentum and the pieces in place out out run Broadcom, Nvidia and others over the next three years. If I had to drop three, I'm down to SPCX, AMD and DRTS. That gives me space, chips/AI and a biotech.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

CPU stocks (AMD/Intel) trade at 40x Memory trades at just 6x It's one of the biggest dislocations in the market I also don't believe Micron should be at 40x, probably 12x - 18x at least which is still below the market (19x)

sadferret123

I first started investing in 2017. Wasted money on such pieces of shit like PhaseRx and TransEnterix, biotech pieces of shit. I'd just graduated from a compsci degree too. AMD was $6.50 and Nvidia was less than $2. Yes I'm regarded.

BunkerRush

AMD has stronger support at 630 than it did back at $100

njcuban123

AMD Puts and good luck betting against it

SanDisk_Made_Me_Itch

What is the opposite of SOXL again? Or should I just buy AMD puts?

DrHarrisonLawrence

No, I think I would have done worse. Over the last 5 years I’ve tried picking winners and have only succeeded a couple times. For instance, in my regular stock buying thought process, I would not have bought AMD while NVDA was running game, and I would have been quite wrong from a 1Y return here. I didn’t expect AMD to go 150-200% in a year while NVDA did 30% So that taught my a lesson to try and learn how to use idle cash to generate income I guess. So far it’s been awesome BUT this bull market is a large part of that success. I will say, it is possible to place a sell order the night before and hit it relatively successfully. It is possible for me by looking at theta and doing the math on where an options contract will go if an underlying share goes to a certain point that I’m comfortable selling at, since that underlying share price would represent an overbought RSI and then I expect the price to come back down after a spike up. Not a perfect method but it has worked often for me

Hegecoin_Rules

Had AMD at $60...thought i was smart for selling at 120..

DrHarrisonLawrence

I don’t buy and hold with it. The cash reserve is just that. The goal is to use it as cash that gains a ROI. So I had $58k of cash in my brokerage at the beginning of the year. I have shares in other stuff besides that cash. But the point is to keep that portion liquid. When I see volatility in certain names, I sell a CSP that would expire in 2-3 dte. At first my goal was 1% gain per week, like $500-600, because it would mean I’d make like $27k over the year and that would be a 50% return. Which is obviously amazing as a trader. In 2026 I was assigned 20% of the time on my CSP. When that happened, I would sell a CC to get out of the shares. Two times that had happened (once on AMD and once on BE) and I lost out on really big gains because the shares kept climbing. AMD was the one that got away and I had FOMO over that but I’ve gotten over it now because my initial “thesis” was to develop a sustainable way to make money on idle cash rather than picking and choosing winners in the market. So I’m up 62% on my cash in 2026 and have made $36k from $58k.

TheRealMysticX

AMD lock in

Own-Recipe5908

He's giving AMD, NVDA's, GOOGL's, and TSLA/SPCX's CEO medals, though.

Prestigious-Camp5622

They’re nearly all private right now. Ironically Tesla might be a good thought here. World Labs just got bought buy AMD so they’re in the discussion too. Not exactly the novel answer you’re looking for I suspect.

Emotional-Breath-838

Utter garbage. What nobody tells you is that buying high works extremely well. Some say it’s better than buying low. All the crystal ball bozos thinking they know when Nike is going to turn around would have been better off buying AMD when it hit an all time high. I have thousands of other examples but the ONLY example anyone has of buying low being successful is when they get lucky. Buy high and the odds are in your favor.