Reddit Posts
One of the reasons why there is a housing shortage or will be in the USA.
$ROOT looks good to me. Seems reversing after many months of wait. Pretty cheap, bought 3000 shares today (2/24/22) AMH to average it.
Mentions
There are a lot of REITs where this is the case. AMH and INVH come to mind. The market value of their assets are ~30% more than their EV. Real estate just isn't a popular investment right now, people would rather own AI.
Lmao. The second I post about AMH it fucking dips
AMH ripping BX lagging So much for those fucking short positions 😂
From a market lens, this reads more like “cap future buying, not force sales.” The marginal impact is on single-family rental operators and related REITs (e.g., AMH, INVH, Tricon), where premium multiples could compress and funding-driven growth gets harder. While institutional ownership is \~1–3% nationally, in tight-inventory, high‑concentration metros, fewer marginal buyers can still shift volumes and price dynamics. For homebuilding and home improvement, near‑term demand/pricing could soften; medium‑term outcomes for builders (DHI, LEN, NVR) hinge on mortgage rates and credit conditions if owner‑occupier demand improves. Execution risk is high (the President can’t legislate alone), so prices tend to react first, with the path depending on Congressional action and definitional carve‑outs (what counts as “institutional” and “large”).
true, fair, but Blackrock is directly incentivized to see AMH succeed, which is the real spirit of the argument here
Those stakes are from funds that are not owned by Blackrock, but by investors that invest through Blackrock. Blackrock had no claim to the profits from AMH. The fund holders of whichever funds that Blackrock offers have claim to those profits because they are the actual owners. If you invested $100 in a Blackrock mutual fund it would appear that their ownership of those companies went up by $100 but really it's your money. That is why they have $10 trillion in assets but only a $166 billion market cap. They are not the real owners, but custodians and make their money by collecting magement fees.
Guaranteed they have massive stakes in companies that do, like AMH (BR owns 11.9%).
Things looking frothy for AMH. Also short defense contractors.
Calls on DHI short AMH is my play. Unless he decides to shit on their HOA business.
Short AMH lmao? 52,552 homes in 22 states. 2 weeks out at least for the bombshell might wait for a bounce.
There are stocks trading at rather cheap levels right now, because the entire market is trading based on momentum and hype right now. People are selling off boring stocks to harvest tax losses and piling into AI stocks. There is opportunity in buying boring stocks. CMCSA- 6-7x forward earnings, compared to 15x historically. While they face some stagnation due to competition in the broadband space, that's still potential 15% returns just for keeping earnings steady. PYPL, GIS, KHC, CAG, VZ are all in a roughly 10-12x forward PE range. Then you got REITs like AMH/INVH trading at 20-30% below the value of the homes they own minus their debts.
Read up on AMH (Adaptive Market Hypothesis). You're welcome.
Spy earnings call AMH
He really sounds so unintelligent every time he’s on Bloomberg. Anne-Marie runs circles around that blow hard AMH: “What’s the economic rationale for draconian tariffs?” Vara: “erh, NATIONAL EMERGENCIES: fentanyl, immigrants, fentanyl, woke lefties, Biden, Soros, Hitler deepfakes, smut, immigrants, cloned velociraptors, gays, asteroids, satan, icebergs - they took down the Hindenburg, Lizzo, and not to mention, fentanyl
The Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) is an economic theory that suggests financial markets are dynamic and evolving, with efficiency fluctuating based on investor behavior and adapting to changing conditions. Unlike the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which assumes constant efficiency, the AMH acknowledges that market efficiency is not fixed. It incorporates elements of behavioral economics and evolutionary theory to explain how markets adapt and change over time.
The Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) is an economic theory that suggests financial markets are dynamic and evolving, with efficiency fluctuating based on investor behavior and adapting to changing conditions. Unlike the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which assumes constant efficiency, the AMH acknowledges that market efficiency is not fixed. It incorporates elements of behavioral economics and evolutionary theory to explain how markets adapt and change over time.
Everything down except the publicly traded rental home firms. You know, the ones who bought up houses in 2008 for sole purpose of renting them out. INVH & AMH. I think that's telling fir recession and I want to finally buy puts today
How the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) Works Lo, the theory’s founder, believes that people are mainly rational, but sometimes can quickly become irrational in response to heightened market volatility. This can open up buying opportunities. He postulates that investor behaviors—such as loss aversion, overconfidence, and overreaction—are consistent with evolutionary models of human behavior, which include actions such as competition, adaptation, and natural selection.
How the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) Works Lo, the theory’s founder, believes that people are mainly rational, but sometimes can quickly become irrational in response to heightened market volatility. This can open up buying opportunities. He postulates that investor behaviors—such as loss aversion, overconfidence, and overreaction—are consistent with evolutionary models of human behavior, which include actions such as competition, adaptation, and natural selection.
Why is AMH up 18%? Did Americans sell out real estate already
How the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) Works Lo, the theory’s founder, believes that people are mainly rational, but sometimes can quickly become irrational in response to heightened market volatility. This can open up buying opportunities. He postulates that investor behaviors—such as loss aversion, overconfidence, and overreaction—are consistent with evolutionary models of human behavior, which include actions such as competition, adaptation, and natural selection.
The adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) combines principles of the well-known and often controversial efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with behavioral finance. Andrew Lo, the theory’s founder, believes that people are mainly rational, but sometimes can overreact during periods of heightened market volatility. AMH argues that people are motivated by their own self-interests, make mistakes, and tend to adapt and learn from them.
The adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) combines principles of the well-known and often controversial efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with behavioral finance. Andrew Lo, the theory’s founder, believes that people are mainly rational, but sometimes can overreact during periods of heightened market volatility. AMH argues that people are motivated by their own self-interests, make mistakes, and tend to adapt and learn from them.
EMH is a fantastic simplifying framework but is WILDLY misunderstood. for example, most people don't even know there are 3 forms of EMH, weak, semi-strong, and strong. most people wrongfully discuss EMH from the context of strong, which the authors themselves openly discuss not being representative in real markets. AMH is definitely more accurate as a general framework but still has shortfalls.
What is your opinion on the EMH or AMH?
With REITs they pay no corporate taxes, so if you hold them in roth, they are tax free. Also, if held in a taxable, they can still take advantage of depreciation to ensure that their dividends are classified as "return of capital" and not taxed. If you only want to buy Residential, you can buy residential REITs like AMH, and avoid commercial ones.
If you are trying to save for a house, it might be better to invest in assets with higher correlation to housing prices, like REITs such as AMH, as well as shorter term assets such as short term US treasuries with stable values.
My current understanding is that "efficiency" in the EMH is just the speed at which information is disseminated to the market participants as a whole. What participants do with that information is up to them. The democratization of the stock market has decreased price volatility and increased predictability. I do wonder how both EMH/AMH factor in disinformation and misinformation into their models.
TLDR: The Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) by Andrew Lo suggests that financial markets are like changing ecosystems where different investors interact and adapt, unlike the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) which sees markets as stable and always efficient. AMH believes that market efficiency changes over time because of how investors behave, changing market conditions, and big changes like the introduction of the internet. It recognizes that investors' human flaws and learning from past experiences can make markets go through cycles of being more or less efficient. This idea means that investment strategies need to keep evolving, as what worked before might not work now because the market and its participants have changed.
AMH, an institutional investor in single family homes for rent, is offloading homes in Texas. Maybe a good short.
it was down yesterday too AMH.
Is CELH BMO or AMH for earnings tomorrow? I get paid at midnight so I’m hoping its after hours
SNOW, MARA, AI literally have to try to lose money on earnings plays AMH tomorrow. Fuck, one of the tickers is literally just AI
AMH not a lot of watchers. I’m long and it is a reliable dividend. Not sure it’s going to move much
As others have said, REITs are a very broad category. Are you looking for one that tends to move more in line with housing prices? Something like INVH or AMH?
Then it will be AME, AMF, AMG, AMH, AMI, AMJ
This wouldn't change anything. Hedge funds could just buy REITs like AMH and then AMH could issue new shares to buy up more single family homes.
Sad to say but AMH who is probably one of the largest institutional buyers in Hotlanta is not going out of business. They're just doing more build to rent rather than fill house rentals now.
As a long term hold I don't like any REITs right now because if rates do in fact stay higher for longer it will not be a good sector to own. As a trade, I did buy SLG and AMH earlier this year on some unusually large selling but I sold them on the nice bounce.
it's quite a bit less than that. there are about 15 million sfrental homes. AMH owns about 59k INV owns about 80k and progress owns about 80k. they are a tiny tiny fraction of SFRs, but outsized in certain markets (az, lv, fl, tx)
$AMH $ESS Or get commercial exposure plus leverage and go full $DRV
Put 95% of it into building a 5 year US treasury ladder for low risk growth, and 5% in US Residential REITs like AMH to hedge against rising housing costs.
The need to live shouldn’t be an investment opportunity. Why companies like Progress and AMH need 5000 properties in middle TN is ridiculous. Housing should be regulated so people can actually afford to own one day
Idk wouldn't call zillow blowing and fire selling their home inventory as "smaller companies" failing. Houses inventory and reits generally make up a very small fraction of Blackrock aum. From personal experience it's most private fund and family offices buying up housing stock, well except AMH.
https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/book/rf-lit-review/2016/rflrv11n11.ashx Does a good job of addressing criticism and highlights recent successes with TA > Early tests using these techniques are demonstrating that many widely used technical indicators do not generate profits on their own. More advanced techniques, such as VBSR, do enhance profitability. It is likely that continued research will find a variety of tools that exploit market inefficiencies with technical indicators, a feat that is entirely possible under the AMH and other advanced theories. While this specific paper isn't peer reviewed, it's a Literature Review of peer reviewed research. Please let me know if I'm misunderstanding anything, as this isn't my field.
Some of my positions is down, but I’m up with like 10%, because ENPH carries my ass. Bought 10 at $50, wish i bought more back then, or at least sold all my NET stocks for 10k profit AMH, and reinvested.
Pretty sure it's going to be INVH or AMH. INVH doesn't have a lot of cash, their debt is exposed to variable interest rates, and they are exposed to both a stock market crash and a real estate market crash.
AMH, INVH, and OPEN - but OPEN is already dead.
Just get AVB if you want quality. EQR if you trust in Sam Zell. AMH if you want single-family residential exposure.
Short or puts on INVH, AMH, and maybe LAND. The first two are REITs that only own single family homes.
The whole AMH Blackrock thing hits my like Bill Gates buying farm land. Owning 3/10,000 of a market does not make you scary
Tricon residential($TCN) American Homes for Rent($AMH) and invitation homes ($INVH) have switched to building homes instead of buying them. I’m not sure what this means.
On the first point, you aren't wrong, but two clarifications: -They aren't using "cash" in the common sense, but raising equity or issuing corporate bonds. AMH is already at a PE ratio of what, 65? And they're getting destroyed YTD. INVH fundamentals look similar. Their ability to raise cash will be affected by rate increases, same as the consumer. If the real estate market starts going south, I expect both to be in a world of hurt. -Institutional investors make up a tiny fraction of the investment activity specifically in SFH. The maintenance/management eats into margins heavily, and the risk profile is far different than an apartment block.
Blackrock literally doesn’t buy single family homes though. They’re a fun bogeyman for politicians both liberal and conservative and it’s been effective given how many people regurgitate it across social media. Why so many people fell for something that can easily be fact checked I don’t know. They do invest in companies that buy homes like INVH and AMH but thats to be expected given that they invest broadly across all American and global stocks.
Got insight in build for rent stocks AMH and INVH
I had originally started investing in every 3 letter ticker that started with AM__ AMB, AMC, AMD, AME, AMG, AMH.... That strategy did so much better than it had any right to.
AMH is down 17.37% YTD $INVH is down 20.28% YTD VTI is down 18.08% YTD It's not just those two stocks that look like a car going downhill without brakes.
If you want to know what Wall Street thinks about the direction of home prices, all you have to do is look at $AMH or $INVH. These companies own huge numbers of rental homes and they are as good a proxy as there is for home prices in the future. Right now, they both look like a car going downhill without brakes.
If I had to bet on an earnings fail, I’m still thinking AMH, short interest picked up all week and puts being bought double the amount as calls. With prices of homes way up idk how they’re costs aren’t way up as well
AMH "American Homes 4 Rent" reports earnings and it may be a smart play for puts
It's a predatory and awful business practice, but in the pandemic environment it was a good play for them to make. Under 3% interest rates and a looming tightening of the market. Other tickers: SFR, AMH, INVH. I think they are probably a good bet to make good money with the mortgages going bananas. My wife and I benefitted from the low rate and our payment is totally manageable. We have a new single family home constructed in Chicago. The ones behind us that are almost completed are going for 25% more and have fewer options due to material shortages and their rates will be well over 5%. We are on the edge of a developing area close to downtown but also close to bad neighborhoods. Not sure if anyone is going to pony up at least 50% more per month than us to buy the same home. We would not have and I doubt our neighbors (also all mid-30s) would have either. It seems to cross into a different demographic that may not want to speculate on a developing area like we wanted to.
Call credit spreads on INVH or AMH
To be clear, it's both the most profitable and least profitable traders. But wouldn't the most profitable traders quit and start a hedge fund? I imagine the study isn't going to track traders so well that they can detect new hedge fund managers who were formerly high Sharpe ratio traders. "... the least profitable and those who adopted ill-disciplined trading strategies tended to cease trading sooner than others. These findings are consistent with the AMH. However, profitable traders were also found to be more likely to cease trading than the average trader ..."
Been holding cash since May 2021. Now slowly buying in. Cash - 50% Stocks portfolio - 50% Nasdaq 100 (QQQM) - 50% INVH - 10% AMH - 10% BABA - 15% NFLX - 15%
Guys, help everyone , who agrees that the future is for #defi remittances? Learn more about 🥇#Amphorium and you won't regret it🔥from 16/01 to 23/02🚀#AMH started #TokenSale at #Coinsbit🔥🤑🤑🤑🤑💰💰💰💰💰💰
If you are looking for a cool #GEM, then you should pay attention to the 🥇#Amphorium. Your investment portfolio will grow and if you stay here for a long time, you will benefit with a high annual interest rate🔥from 16/01 to 23/02🚀#AMH started #TokenSale at #Coinsbit🔥
Are you telling me to buy AMH?
Why do you think AMH will pop? It could always trade sideways.
There is a possibility that the low price is an overreaction to the problems Zillow had a couple of months ago. Do your research carefully. If AMH didn’t overpay for their properties, and are well managed this could be a good deal. I will be looking closely at it myself.
AMH is up 40% this year - IRT is up 85%. There are plenty of other REITs. I got into both about halfway on the rise - lots of money is going to real estate.
Zillow was buying a lot in the SW desert, cities that will never run out of room to build. It’s a terrible area to invest in housing (or lucrative depending on timing). These are the same.exact.cities at the heart of the 2008 crash. I’m also kind of curious about the rental companies, like AMH, and how they will fare, there’s been a lot of speculation on rent as well.
He means the executives got their giant, massive compensation packages already and everyone involved already got their bonuses. People laughing about their stock dropping 50%+ from peak should zoom out. It was barely above 60 before pandemic and dipped to 26 when things crashed in March 2020. Realistically, the only people involved who got hosed were the people who bought their stock at 100+ price. They are going to sell these properties wholesale to some rental company (AMH and the other ones) who will use the new house values to increase rents. The little guy will lose no matter what.
Can someone give me a dummies version of why my AMH $50 call for 3/18/22 went up 965% there’s no open interest so is it that no one is selling that owns the calls the bids are super low
The poster has said they worked for Zillow, so if that's true I would assume a high chance they know. I have also read that companies like Zillow will offload their excess inventory onto REITs like Invitation Homes (INVH) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH). So if you have an insight and you're interested in making money off of the rentals of those houses, that's where I would look.
Anyone else bought SNDL AMH for the real short squeeze play?
$GOGO AMH would be fun today
$AMH (American Homes 4 Rent) - 9/17 OTM Calls for $45. Stock at $42 and options are only $0.05. I added contracts in the last 20 min EOD today and may get more tomorrow. Obviously it's priced to be a long shot so but it's good gamble for more positive industry news and momentum in the next 2.5 weeks. Here is a positive news release from today: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-american-homes-4-rent-amh-stock-stands-out-in-a-strong-industry-2021-08-31 It's a bet on an idea - basically that rental housing will outperform the market in the sort term now (mid-term before when I first bought this contract). Now with Evictions back on the table Institutional Player will come out on top.
Two interesting Single Family Rental investments are Invitation Homes (INVH) & American Homes 4 Rent (AMH). Both leaders in the space and have a lot of room for growth. INVH is holding slightly more premium assets (higher price points, larger, etc.) but it’s trading appropriately tighter as a result.
**RIG - Transocean LTD** * Plus - Huge insider buying past 2 years and not selling * Plus - Stock is extremely cheap relative to company assets minus liabilities, it can go * Minus - Oil Play - High risk - all it takes is one bad news event to tank. On the flip side it can go way up based on on news * Minus - even though it's cheap it's that way for a reason ​ **AMH - American Homes 4 Rent** * Plus - housing market favors institutional investors looking to buy then rent * Plus - Management has great track record of growth (same founder as Public Storage) * Minus - stock at all time high and very high P/E * Minus - long term if government (including local) were to crack down on rental housing
A good friend of mine just closed a land deal here in North Florida with AMH. They have 38k single family homes nationwide, but spend a lot(marginally) servicing them in different locations. This will be their first single site development (1000 single family rental homes).
This is why I’m hammering companies like AMH
AMH just closed a deal for a large parcel here in Jacksonville to build 1000 rental homes. I think REITS are more likely to pivot toward that model and dump single family homes.
Avalon Bay (AVB), UDR, and Equity Residential (EQR) are great options for residential REITs, but they operate in the multi-family space. There are also REITs that focus specifically on single-family residential rental product, and that is a huge growth market in housing. The big players there are American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) and Invitation Homes (INVH). Ultimately, all these have had a huge run up already as housing markets have been uber-hot and people often use REITs as inflationary hedges---but these are also still great long-term investments for dividends and covered calls. The great thing about rental housing in general is that leases are typically only a year so there is always the opportunity to reprice rents in the near term and owners pass through operating expenses to their tenants as part of the rent, separate individual billing, and RUBS (Ratio Utility Billing System) invoicing.
Yes,also for AME,AMH,AMG - calls on all,because this is how we play here
Ok my plays for tomorrow. On Thursday I was sure the market would go down on Friday because of bad news from Janet Yellen or the jobs report so I played some spy puts. Lost half my investment so then I bought 6 $422 spy calls. Have my fingers crossed. Also have a longer term play. On Friday I bought 3 $40 calls for AMH American homes 4 rent. Experation on those are 6/18 and with home going up and rent being more expensive im thinking it should easily pass the goal. I should and probably will buy more of the AMH calls since they are still cheap.
Also, D.R. Horton (DHI) KB Home (KB) And American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) I'm not a financial advisor. Don't believe anything I say.
Yes, you can buy INVH or AMH for direct exposure to single family homes.
Thanks for the response, Price to Book on AMH is 2.01, INVH is 2.33. I guess since they have a Debt to Capital of 30 and 48, it makes sense that they would be worth double the book value since their portfolio (before debt) would be 15x and 24x their market cap and that is what drives their top line?
The best proxy for the US housing market that I know of are AMH and INVH. Both are reits that own large numbers of single family homes. You could also rent through a property management company. They will take care of renting the property and upkeep,etc. but they skim a big chunk of the rental income (30 to 50%) for this service. You will still have a house when you come back and you won’t have to worry about managing it while overseas.
Let’s take that and go in alphabetical order from then on! AME, then AMG, then AMH. Then to 4 letter tickers.
There are a couple of big reits that own houses....AMH and INVH......your bearish case might want to also include rising mortgage rates.
It’s already been hit in AMH