ARM

theummeower

So the AI adjacent sell off is done? ARM, MU, SNDK, WDC all booming at close.

eboyuwue

MRVL NBIS ARM INTC leaps scooped at the bottom☺️

ked913

ARM and Softbank too, 90% ARM stock used as loan to OpenAI. Not to mention the current outcome of the Qualcomm vs ARM fight.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Below are the top 10 worst-performing Nasdaq-100 names on Wednesday, which helped fuel the broader move lower across the tech complex. CoreWeave (CRWV) -16.6% Nebius Group (NBIS) -10.7% Lumentum (LITE) -8.4% Rocket Lab (RKLB) -7.5% DoorDash (DASH) -6.8% Marvell Technology (MRVL) -6.8% Arm Holdings (ARM) -6.1% Strategy (MSTR) -6.1% Astera Labs (ALAB) -6.0% Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) -6.0%

1098duc_w_the_termi

Keep an eye on ARM. Was used as collateral for an OpenAI loan (25B) by SoftBank. Would be forced to sell around 185 to cover. Would be hilarious if Masayoshi Son degen’s ass was the cause of an unwinding. Probably won’t happen considering there’s still leverage out there but who knows

1098duc_w_the_termi

Keep an eye on ARM. Was used as collateral for an OpenAI loan (25B) by SoftBank. Would be forced to sell around 185 to cover. Would be hilarious if Masayoshi Son degen’s ass was the cause of an unwinding. Probably won’t happen considering there’s still leverage out there but who knows

milkywaygalaxy71

Those ones don’t move the markets, it’s the big ones like AMD, MU, INTC, ARM, MRVL

sooooted

I could see Anthropic becoming an ARM-type business where Claude makes discoveries in biotech for example, then patents it and licenses it off to pharmaceutical companies.

davidbigham

So QCOM winning that trial against ARM again just now

SteakEater137

I love seeing ARM take a beating. I dont have puts or anything this overpriced POS just pisses me off

Lucixxx6

ARM just took a L

Zeitcow

ARM

Zeitcow

ARM

Qs9bxNKZ

Mortgage is good debt unless high interest rate, adjusts or is something like a 7/1 ARM Then it’s just a gamble with a non-recourse loan on a heavily leveraged property where if liquidated you owe the IRS and they never forgive nor forget.

Dependent-Newt1009

Vera is basically their trojan horse into the data center CPU market and nobody talking about it yet. The way they bundle it with their GPU platforms means companies will just take the CPU too cause it's easier than mixing vendors ARM getting $2B in orders is wild though, that whole space gonna look completely different in 3 years

davidbigham

QCOM ARM trail outcome should be out next week. Place your bet .

A55BAG

I'm long ARM, they just have so many tailwinds right now. I think the biggest risk for this stock near term is its valuation. It could fall -50% just because the market doesn't want to pay so much, or if SoftBank becomes a forced seller. I'd consider both cases just opportunities to add. For upside over the next few years, it's all about AI. Let's see how many data center chips they can sell.

RV7DR

I'd also add that ARM is facing both and FTC and EU are investigating Arm Holdings for potential illegal monopolization and anticompetitive licensing practices in the semiconductor market. ARM was also in court this week defending itself in a pretty high stakes, and potentially very costly, case with Qualcomm. Up to you- but I am staying away from this one. I'd say it's vastly over inflated price currently

spilledonwhite

Seeing a lot of people in financial subs with ARM mortgages going up. I feel like I've seen this one before..

Safe_Manner_1879

Until ARM, Intel or somebody else comes up with a novel and superior solution (Nvidia’s is just motivated to defend there potion, not shake the boat) or delivers 75% of the performance at 25% of the price compared to Nvidia’s latest offering.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

AI GPU cycle = CPU cycle = memory cycle = storage cycle - AI GPU: NVDA (15x), AVGO (20x), AMD (40x) - CPU: AMD (40x), Intel (54x), ARM (126x) - Memory: Micron (6.2x), SK Hynix (6.4x) - Storage (SSD): SanDisk (7.0x) - Storage (HDD): Seagate (25x), Western Digital (21x) If AI spend goes higher, everyone in the cycle goes up. Memory would go even higher since they have the lowest multiples If AI spend goes down, all stocks crash. But Memory doesn't have that far to go down since the multiples are so low already Basically everyone should move in the same direction, memory has the largest upside, and the least downside on valuation

McOmghall

Why are you showing me Google, ARM and Accenture's tax discounts?

1098duc_w_the_termi

Let’s all short ARM and make SoftBank have to unwind their 28B investment in OpenAI

formal_lewis

that SpaceX line is the real headline here. 94 billion dollar stake that was hidden in plain sight for a decade until the IPO forced their hand. wild that we can just... not know about a position that size until a form gets filed the biotech grab bag makes sense given their deepmind and verily plays. they're basically funding the entire pipeline at this point also funny how many people are gonna gloss over that ARM holding. 695 million is not pocket change for a chip architecture bet

SteakEater137

ARM is even worse

MaxEhrlich

Just letting yall know we at the top and it’s all about to dump cause I just opened orders of 60k total spread around MU, AAOI, AVGO, ARM, GRAB, and GOOG.

moxyte

ARM business model doesn't scale (low licensing fees) and if they would get uppity about it, RISC-V is readily there to slap it.

cuppaseb

Hilarious how many people here didn't get the news that ARM is branching out into making their own chips as well. Look it up. But still, i built a small position in march, sold at like 200% profit in the summer, and would buy again only if the price falls dramatically. Right now they're priced to absolute sparkling perfection, buyer beware.

SuperOrbital_Trading

The single biggest thing holding back ARM is Windows and other software. If it was just a matter of swapping chips I think they would have already taken over. But most programs people use do not have ARM version, so by buying into an ARM computer you are effectively limiting it's abilities overall. And I am not 100% sure how they overcome this. It is not like the other companies have an incentive to design for it at this point. And if you make a push to get people into using them now to increase demand, those people could easily just ruin the image of them. Like Zune compared to Ipods. Once that happens, it's over. Having said that, I am still a really big fan of QCOM. I think the days of the gaming laptops with dGPUs are numbered. There is simply no reason to get a big, heavy, hot laptop when a thin and light notebook runs 95% of the games you want to play anyways but can be an 8-12 hour laptop on other days.

lougs77

I'll play devil's advocate since everyone wants to talk you into it: the problem with ARM was never the business, it's the price. At these multiples you're paying for a decade of near-flawless execution upfront, and a lot of the future growth story assumes everyone keeps paying ARM royalties forever — while their biggest customers (Apple, Qualcomm) are all spending billions trying to design around them. The 10+ year thesis probably still works, but if AI capex cools off this could be a rough ride for a while. If you buy, I'd size it as a speculative position, not a core holding.

SuccessfulSir9611

Before SoftBank acquired it, the stock was at around £17 in 2016. With a bit of AI premium, ARM IPO’ed at $51 in 2023. Currently it trades at 309x Trailing PE and 129x forward P/E. A lot of their future growth blindly depends on everyone using Muse like agents, they selling their AGI CPUs, and massive royalties coming in from these IN FUTURE NOT NOW. But only 2% of people even pay for AI in US. With OpenAI actively working on developing AI designed architectures, AI bubble popping when consumers just don’t find enough value to pay for AI, etc concerns, they will never be able to make enough money to match their current stock price. Wrt Muse agents, many have assumed that CPUs are equal to number of users, they are not! They are virtualised and can scale up and down based on number of users at any point of time. Meta has not disclosed this number, but that would clearly put out the limitations of Capex required for this. You would be better off putting your money in NVDA or AVGO at this stage, because, though in same boat as the AI capex cycle, they are still wildly undervalued.

LateralEntry

Got it, I wasn’t aware ARM was an actual company

MaybeTheDoctor

ARM is a design company, not a chip manufacturing company. The designs it produces are licensed out to companies like Apple to build. This is not to say it's not a good company, but the business model is very different than Intel and AMD, who make the physical chips. I don't know how ARM’s contracts are set up, whether it is a license fee per chip made, or if it is a license fee for every new design. This would matter if you wanted to understand how the company’s revenue would grow in the future.

AntiAntiDentite7

I'm not sure what your question is. ARM is a publicly traded company, so you invest in ARM. You could also invest in the companies that buy and utilize ARM processors like Qualcom or Apple.

Fancy-Atmosphere-701

Data centers highly prefer x86 CPUs. The only place where ARM is used is if they're bundled with specific services such as Amazon Graviton for internal customers and AWS backend or Vera CPUs with Nvidia GPUs. AMD CPUs provide superior performance and TCO, and most data center customers strongly prefer x86, even in agentic AI use cases where customers are incentivized to use Vera CPUs.

AntiAntiDentite7

Well idk about that. ARM processors are already heavily utilized in data centers and servers. The only places ARM aren't used are industry and gaming. Industry due to the cost of switching from x86 to ARM. Gaming due to games are built on x86. That's where the translation layers come into play. If the translation layers end up as good as something like proton, then those barriers are no longer present.

AntiAntiDentite7

Appreciate the detailed response. Wouldn't this be a more "short term" issue than "long term" though? Even if AI falls apart, ARM is still in an a pretty good spot moving forward without AI at all. ARM has gotten a big stick boost because of AI recently, but I'm thinking in 10-20 years the "AI bubble" won't be much more than background noise for the price of ARM stock.

kadam_ss

SoftBank owns a ton of ARM, they are desperately trying to raise cash to fund openAI as their IPO is pushed out. SoftBank borrowed $20 billion or so in March 2026 with 1 year maturity assuming openAI would IPO this year. Now that it’s been pushed out, SoftBank has been trying to raise more debt, but banks are not having it. They pledged all of their openAI stake as collateral, which on paper is worth $100 billion, but banks wouldn’t give them even $10 billion debt for it. They now have provided recourse into SoftBank itself to get that debt. SoftBank could easily find itself in a position to sell a ton of its arm holdings to fund openAI, or even run into liquidity issues early next year forcing them to sell a lot of ARM.

AntiAntiDentite7

> There are no ARM chips that outperform x86 on raw performance Never said there were

imustbegthequestion

Cathie Wood is so cooked. Calls on $QCOM. Major puts on $ARM. Hedge with $JPM $GLD AND $GOOGL

Fancy-Atmosphere-701

There are no ARM chips that outperform x86 on raw performance. ARM power efficiency advantage is out the window the moment you run at full load

kbcool

Don't let us strong-ARM you into it

rawintent

No argument, I’m long on ARM already. Up big.

CurrentAirline9065

$ARM is pinned directly between like 5 different macro linear regression centerlines lmao

pkj007

ARM and Tesla are the only two high-multiple stocks in my portfolio. The market has priced them at extreme valuations because it anticipates massive long-term earnings growth a thesis I agree with. However, because their valuations rely so heavily on distant future cash flows rather than near-term profits, they are naturally the most volatile holdings I own.

GeneralOwn5333

Yes. ARM, SPCX and RKLB. And it’s expensive for good reasons. You want cheap go buy Nike, McDonald’s 😪

dinkmctip

I never thought I would be wrong about an ARM in 2025.

FreedK70980

ARM for me, honestly. Bought a tiny position I can't justify on fundamentals because I like the IP moat and figured a small stake beats staring at the chart with regret for a decade (kind of how I feel keeping dubious piece activity on the board instead of simplifying, sometimes "I like it" wins over "the computer line says trade it off"). Costco's the one that gets me the most though, never once looked cheap and never seems to matter. fwiw I don't actually trade, just watch SPY and this stuff from the sidelines, so take the position-sizing talk with a grain of salt.

Yee4614

I would love to own ARM.  I think 2027 is perfectly setup for ARM to dominate.  It is just so hard to justify 122 forward 

Much_Candle_942

100+ and that was irrelevant because of Xilinx acquisition. Acquisition cost was amortized for 5 years as an accounting trick. Back to ARM - I also like the company, but won't touch it as long as Softbank is playing with them. Very high risk of pump n dump. Pledging shares to create/ squeeze supply of floating shares in the market. I'd just be very careful 

OptionsOptimist15

$ARM valuation gives me aids

Glittering_Water3645

Stay away from ARM at these prices. You have nvidia at 1/5 of the valuation and higher growth.

plumpypenguin

$ARM

SuccessfulSir9611

ARM is the most over valued company in this game. It’s leveraged like anything by Softbank which owns 90% of it and it’s volatile as hell. Please look into financials. You have much better opportunities like AVGO.

housemoneyrocketship

ARM forming an arm

Apple2o

I did a 7/1 ARM and lived in it for 6 years before selling LMAO 🤌

Putrid-Dragonfruit-6

You have buy opportunity with google, AVGO, ARM, TSM, AMZN, BE rn

D_Pablo67

The stocks you want to own are NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, ARM and Marvel Technology. Pick you prices and start with limit orders. NVIDIA is my favorite and a long term winner for me.

Overall-Departure-51

I am also looking to short ARM. After mid december, think the stock market will pump with Anthropic IPO and year end window dressing by funds. Softbank will start running out of money and options Q1 to Q2 2027, or if market corrects in Jan and Arm goes under $200 and near margin call territory. Pretty sure lenders/tutes are now slowly loading put derivatives via dark pools onto retail as we speak.

SuccessfulSir9611

You ain’t smoking good stuff. I had posted this thesis as comment somewhere else. Essentially $ARM is at stake. It’s overvalued as it is, but also leveraged now. The worst part is when it fails, the whole house of cards falls, both the value of their stake, the stock, the company’s FCF, EBITDA, everything all at once. It’s a death loop and I think it’s largely guaranteed.

turttyy

Someone tell me why ARM always drops like a fling rock

yummynothing

Yessir. Made a 1.39% profit in ARM. Happy with that. Didn’t enter MU as I’m fully loaded in DRAM.

Feisty_Level_1412

Did you like the MU and ARM stocks I recommended yesterday?

JPowTheDayTrader

It would be nice if ARM goes up 20% tomorrow

davidbigham

ARM up 5%, but QCOM down 1% . dam

SteakEater137

With the SPY starting to drill and bonds going parabolic, I hope you guys prepared your port accordingly and diversified your money into safe havens stocks like: Overpriced 290 P/E ARM (+5%) Debt ridden ORCL (+5%) Literally unprofitable SPCX (+2%) **OK**

SteakEater137

Almost the entire market bleeding, macroeconomic news awful, bonds going crazy, and yet overvalued dogshit with 290 PE like ARM up 5.5%, and literally unprofitable SPCX up 2.3% Seriously fuck this scam market LOL

illtakeoneplease

Bloom Energy bouncing back. Is the guy that had calls on BE and ARM yesterday here this morning ??? :hmmm:

drkgla

Every normie now has a muse virtual machine bot to sick at things to their hearts content. Unfathomably bullish for Intel, AMD, ARM etc.

looool_k_libtard

Swung MongoDB at lows, bought ARM dip, still down 160% on the year because the hedgies attack my portfolio

Hellno344

Margin is calling me. Fck ARM, never buying it again

davidbigham

ARM and QCOM fking me . 🐽

Wonderful-Sail-1126

1. The overall AI market can expand much faster than Nvidia's market share shrink. The pie is big enough for more players and the pie is growing extremely fast. 2. Nvidia invests in Neoclouds for this exact reason. 3. I highly doubt the big players can design chips better than Nvidia's over the long run. Designing a GPU, data center racks, networking, etc. is much harder than taking a standard ARM CPU core design to TSMC to fab.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Don't wait until October to take precautions: buy put options to protect yourself against a crash, that’s a personal piece of advice. Today, September 28, BTC is falling and ARM stock is down 3.5% in pre-market trading; the situation could quickly turn red.

Full_Pear449

Hey Genius , Pulte is not Treasury or Fed spokesperson, And By the way that family member is my daughter who this week was on a Nationally Televised Financial Network show talking about this exact topic. And, if you real are a Risk Analyst and not just some spread sheet PYTHON extrapolater you probaly should hae watched her and what she said as to MBS spreds through the stack, ARM generation and trading, how the rise in rates affects CMO'S and their trading & issuance and lastly defaults and that effect/affect on credit scores

AgitatorSupreme

My biggest weakness is not trusting my gut, not sticking out the lows. I was super bullish on MU like 3-4 years ago and held positions for a long time. Then, when it started really ripping I didnt buy because I thought i’d get rug pulled. TSMC, ARM, all those I had a bunch of money into. I think TSMC is going to be the next one to rip to $1k, as long as potus dickhead doesnt give Xi the green light on tailwan. TSMC always drops back down to near $400 levels like it did 2 weeks or so ago

SteakEater137

I wanted to buy a semiconductor company for diversification and I just had to pick AVGO because I liked their financials. Should have picked a POS like ARM with its 315 PE

SteakEater137

ARM is 315 PE and is crushing the rest of the top 50 in the SPY today

SteakEater137

So lets see what's considered a "safe" investment in this market, with rates exploding upwards... Semiconductors like ARM with a 313 PE up 3.8% today, higher than anyone else in the top 50. ...man what the fuck

davidbigham

ARM and QCOM is my new favorite . 🐂

LarryStink

The pressure has been mounting for months, and with the iran war and gas/diesel price surge, its got to be an accelerator. My game theory hat says they keep it afloat into midterms, (maybe a 5 or 10% before but no bigger) than dems win whatever they win, probably all of it, and they let it break to save the bonds and use the dems as a scapegoat. Private credit/insurance is a house of cards and the govt picked a ARM to fund its debt with rising rates. The outcome was inevitable, and the timing would be more then mere coincidence.

Locke_____Lamora

ARM and SNDK calls gonna print today

torokunai

The 2008 crash happened because $3T of suicide lending went out 2004-06, including loans that required price appreciation to re-finance to avoid the ARM reset. There was also a kind of suicide loan that would “recast” at 120% LTV, if you don’t know that that was you have no business talking about 2007-08

whatsgoingonhonestly

All these ARM financing deals for data hyperscalers :kek: :kek: :kek: :kek: :belt:

FalconGhost

Closing at the daily low for ARM, what a fucking bitch

FalconGhost

ARM new daily lows to close the day. Fuck I’m so blown out

FalconGhost

My ARM calls are so fucked. -7% today means all momentum is lost. There’s no way tomorrow we even see green. Arm is headed back to 275 fuck

housemoneyrocketship

ARM soon

FalconGhost

ARM has no brakes at all, literally just straight line down

davidbigham

ARM dumping 7% . 🤷‍♂️

xlmtothemoon

damn, ARM fell off a cloof should i sell and all in LEG this time?

FalconGhost

Dude right? That’s was pissing me off the most If it was all Semis That’s life But it’s just ARM being garbage

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

\-7% for ARM, what a day !

NaluknengBalong_0918

ARM! :kek: :kek: :kek: :

Independent-Tree-985

!p ARM

Rohat19

Trading ARM must feel really funny for German speakers

ThetaEdgeHQ

The cheap framing is the trap here. On a name like ARM the dollar premium looks small but you are still paying rich implied vol, so measure it against realized and against its own IV rank before calling it cheap. A low priced OTM put on a 60 plus IV name is usually overpaying for protection, not underpaying. The bigger issue is that Jan or Jun 2027 puts are mostly a vega position, not a directional one. If the capex crack thesis is right but early, which is the base case if nothing breaks until after the midterms, IV can drift lower in a grind higher tape and you bleed on the long puts even while the fundamentals deteriorate exactly the way you expect. Right thesis, wrong instrument is how most of these debt narrative shorts die. The one mechanical accelerant worth watching is the point traderbusto raised. With that much of the float pledged as collateral, a real forced selling vector is a margin call on those pledged shares, not the Gartner forecast itself. That is what turns an orderly repricing into a gap, and it is the only scenario where a fixed strike put pays before it decays.

traderbusto

ARM isn’t just “linked to SoftBank,” 86% of outstanding shares are owned by SoftBank. 72% are pledged as collateral. Puts seem almost too obvious, so calls.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Yes, I bought Friday a few cheap ARM puts just to watch how it performs, anyway, a crash could happen or not and if it happens, a window of opportunity to buy cheap puts will still exist during the crash, just wait for the rebound, buy cheap puts and watch the knife falling again 

Maleficent_Dish6676

all that AI debt printing and ARM trading at fantasy valuations, feels like the kind of setup where cheap puts look tempting until the vol crush eats you alive