ARR

_AntiSaint_

They’re not making money, and they’re not trying too. That’s not the immediate goal. The goal is a dominant product that can be used to bludgeon lesser products into acquisition and remove them from the race. It’s similar to SaaS. They don’t want to turn a profit, they want ARR for the attractive valuation multiple, sell, pay off debt, and retire.

Emertxe

hmm I miscalculated a bit, it's definitely a more bullish valuation than I was originally thinking but still a realistic goal. 9b ARR * 40% margins = 3.6b+ profit per year expected exiting 2026. 3.6b * 30x high growth multiple = 108b / 309m fully diluted ahares = $350 Not saying it will easily get there, but it's not that far fetched either, especially if they raise guidance at any point.

jdshop

The argument I see most from AI skeptics is ROI on capex. And it's true that capex has truly been staggering. What they are missing though, is the "value" that this current capex cycle will generate can only increase from here. Just model improvement alone (see the reactions from devs about Fable) will drive higher value tokens without additional capex. Anthropic has proven this just from software capabilities alone. Their ARR went from $1B to $30B in a single year. No one, especially these skeptics, knows what the value of future tokens look like. How much are tokens that can cure cancer worth? Extend human longevity? No AI bubble. Stocks may go down, but AI super cycle is just starting.

greenpride32

Why do you see this being bigger benefit for AMZN GOOGL when same offering is also available at MSFT? AMZN ARR for AI services was reported at $15b last quarter. And for MSFT that figure was $37b. Expect both to surge later this month on next earnings with only 3 months time passing. Anthropic ARR was $9b in 2025 and they came out of nowhere months later with $47b. You can read the narrative, or you can read the numbers. In next few years those hyperscaler ARR will hit 12 digit.

jelentoo

I think the 2016 shady Dan argument died a while ago when $ 500 ARR and $360 million revenue for 2026 was accepted as true.

greenpride32

MSFT announced $37b ARR for AI services during last earnings which was up over 100% YoY. Anthropic reported ARR of $9b in 2025, and just half year later it's $47b. Sure that's very far from ROI - but that's why the concept of capex exists. MSFT has contracts with neo clouds CRWV NBIS and IREN and are willing to pay their premium margin to access additonal GPU compute today, rather than wait for their own expansions to online. This wouldn't be the case unless MSFT can both utilize and monetize that capacity today. There must be a number at some point where people will actually start believing maybe there is some actual value here. Just 2 companies (sure amongst the largest) already at $84b ARR. Early innings here, just imagine what is the TAM runway then?

LarryStink

Your ARR is adjusted. Your EBITDA is adjusted. You're paying PIK. And every time you come in here, you're asking for more money.  - some investor to all the private credit firms 

Hacking_the_Gibson

The ARR numbers these startups are producing are full on made up.  TechCrunch just wrote an article where these "companies" are taking their biggest revenue day and multiplying by 365. By that math, my plumbing company is doing $6.5M ARR. 

finebushlane

It's not a dumb example, how are they a relatively thin layer? It seems like you have no idea about how businesses grow or what creating a great product means. Why are so many people using Lovable and not all the shallow clones of Lovable? How long do you think it took Photoshop before they became a public company? Photoshop was originally made in 1987, no one had even really heard of it until roughly 1993 or 1994 when it started to become very popular. Slack? It took 6 years from the founding of Slack to an IPO. The idea you think that any companies would replace Youtube or Whatsapp in 2 years shows that you don't have a ton of experience with the venture ecosystem or how companies tend to grow and how long it takes. Additionally, your premise that they are not SaaS killers doesn't make any sense. All new software is being built with AI integrations. All the legacy SaaS players are ADDING AI to their products because they know they have to compete with the new generation of software. Software like Salesforce and ServiceNow will die unless they add the AI features. Also, I've met companies who have been replacing all their legacy SaaS with their own internal tools they have built. I met a CEO literally two weeks ago who told me the only SaaS they hadn't replaced was Slack, which was kind of amusing to me. Lovable was founded less than 2 years ago and is the fastest company every to 100M ARR plus. Sierra AI - AI for customer service, founded in the last couple of years. Hit 100M ARR in 7 quarters. Decagon - AI for customer service. 2023 company and hit past 8 figures ARR, multi billion valuation. Also stuff like Hippocractic AI and Open Evidence who are smashing in the AI Health field.

befree224

Yes looking at their ARR growth is insane. I have only seen rare gem tech companies with this growth profile ($PLTR, $CRWD, early $UBER etc… ). Well priced and they would break even around 3m subs. This is still a speculative play and need to pay attention if they are executing well. I do see a lot of family willing to pay for this kind of content. Also while listening to the earning call the ceo reminded that their are closer to the average viewer (than the Hollywood studios), which I would agree.

greenpride32

Stock charts and company performance do not always align in the short term. They usually do in the longer term. I think MSFT past 20 years their top and bottom line increased sequentially YoY in 17 or 18 years out of 20. Yet look at 20 year chart and how many times has it bounced all over the map? But the long term stock chart would show they beat both SP500 and NAS100 over that period; or in other words valuation grew by a lot. Take a look at NVDA. Their revenue went from $26b to $60b to $130b to $215b in sequential years. Again look at the stock chart for that period and it bounces up and down. But just like MSFT, end point is much higher than start point. If financial performce is there, eventually share price appreciation will also be there. So I'll continue to hold and maybe buy more of these stocks with great financials that are "doing bad" over stocks with no profit or proven monetization that are "doing good" from share price perspective. Some of those speculative plays will pan out long term (everyone has to start from somewhere), but many won't. And while it's true all the large capex spend will eventually hit the bottom line, last Q MSFT announced $37b ARR from AI. While they don't break it down, I suspect large portions are from AI services on Azure rather than Copilot. Not bad from what many consider a "last place/loser" of AI race, considering the "first place/leader" Anthropic ARR is $47b.

Extension-Temporary4

At this price point I actually find it interesting.  I actually like snap. It’s a worthwhile shot in the dark at this price point.  $1.1 billion in cash and $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. $3.5 billion in total debt, comprised primarily of long-term convertible senior notes.  Total Assets: $7.5 billion. Revenue from Advertising: $1.24 billion (81% of total top-line revenue). But, advertising grew at a modest 3% year-over-year rate. Not great but growing.  Revenue from Subscriptions & Other Streams: $285 million (up 87% year-over-year). 25 million paying subscribers and has achieved an annualized revenue run rate (ARR) of over $1 billion.   Total Revenue: $1.53 billion, an overall increase of 12% year-over-year. Net Income: ($89) million Net Loss. Improvement from $140mm net loss last year.   Adjusted EBITDA: $233 million (up 115% year-over-year).  Operating Cash Flow: $327 million   Free Cash Flow (FCF): $286 million (up 150% year-over-year) Days Sales Outstanding - DSO: clients typically pay within 60 to 75 days. Large brand advertising agencies up to 90 days. Don’t love this but fine, at least they are paying.    Days Payable Outstanding - DPO: 45 to 60 days. Again, don’t love that they are paying faster than they are bringing it in but understandable.  Year-over-Year Growth Expectations:  10% to 15%  Global Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 483 million (up 5% year-over-year), and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) stand at 956 million. Cost Structural Changes: Management initiated a lean restructuring plan designed to slash its annualized cost structure by over $500 million in the second half of the year. Plus, if not for Specs R&D they would be profitable - a very capital-intensive hardware play. Specs are a drag on R&D costs but represent their primary long-term hedge against mobile OS platform changes. If specs fail, and they scrap the program technically they could convert into a pretty lean business that quickly goes into the black.  Obviously there’s more to discuss but at a high level it’s not an awful business and it is trading at an attractive price point. They have valuable data (not just for advertisers but for training LLM’s), they have valuable IP and they have goodwill. As others have noted, Evan is the problem. He would never agree to sell but if he did, I could see someone buying for the arbitrage opportunity. I think it’s interesting. 

Extension-Temporary4

I actually like snap. It’s a worthwhile shot in the dark at this price point.  $1.1 billion in cash and $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. $3.5 billion in total debt, comprised primarily of long-term convertible senior notes.  Total Assets: $7.5 billion. Revenue from Advertising: $1.24 billion (81% of total top-line revenue). But, advertising grew at a modest 3% year-over-year rate. Not great but growing.  Revenue from Subscriptions & Other Streams: $285 million (up 87% year-over-year). 25 million paying subscribers and has achieved an annualized revenue run rate (ARR) of over $1 billion.   Total Revenue: $1.53 billion, an overall increase of 12% year-over-year. Net Income: ($89) million Net Loss. Improvement from $140mm net loss last year.   Adjusted EBITDA: $233 million (up 115% year-over-year).  Operating Cash Flow: $327 million   Free Cash Flow (FCF): $286 million (up 150% year-over-year) Days Sales Outstanding - DSO: clients typically pay within 60 to 75 days. Large brand advertising agencies up to 90 days. Don’t love this but fine, at least they are paying.    Days Payable Outstanding - DPO: 45 to 60 days. Again, don’t love that they are paying faster than they are bringing it in but understandable.  Year-over-Year Growth Expectations:  10% to 15%  Global Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 483 million (up 5% year-over-year), and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) stand at 956 million. Cost Structural Changes: Management initiated a lean restructuring plan designed to slash its annualized cost structure by over $500 million in the second half of the year. Plus, if not for Specs R&D they would be profitable - a very capital-intensive hardware play. Specs are a drag on R&D costs but represent their primary long-term hedge against mobile OS platform changes. If specs fail, and they scrap the program technically they could convert into a pretty lean business that quickly goes into the black.  Obviously there’s more to discuss but at a high level it’s not an awful business and it is trading at an attractive price point. 

Cantonius

nterprise AI is less circular but it is pretty much in the Application layer that sits atop of the Foundational Model Layer. There's NOW and CRM which are at the top of the revenue chain. They started showing Agentforce ARR and NowAssist ACV. There's also AI native companies like PLTR. Then there's AI Native startups. Agentforce and NowAssist +150% Y/Y ARR/ACV, Palantir rev growth +85% Y/Y, AI Native startups are hitting 100 MM ARR in less than 2 years vs 6-8 years in SaaS 2.0.

Cantonius

Enterprise AI is less circular but it is pretty much in the Application layer that sits atop of the Foundational Model Layer. There's NOW and CRM which are at the top of the revenue chain. They started showing Agentforce ARR and NowAssist ACV. There's also AI native companies like PLTR. Then there's AI Native startups. Agentforce and NowAssist +150% Y/Y ARR/ACV, Palantir rev growth +85% Y/Y, AI Native startups are hitting 100 MM ARR in less than 2 years vs 6-8 years in SaaS 2.0.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

1. There is no discount for Anthropic. Anthropic is paying less because Colossus1 only has A100/H100/H200 while Google only bought Blackwell GPUs from SpaceX. There's likely also some volume discount since Anthropic is buying more. 2. ARR is an extremely valuable projection.Several large name businesses have not cancelled. Microsoft is trying to force their employees to use their CoPilot, a far inferior product. Their employees still have access to Anthropic products. 3. Ok, but this is why Anthropic is "desperate"? Anthropic has pricing power. TLDR; Anthropic is not desperate. The only thing they're desperate for is more compute so they can grow even more.

Tim_Apple_938

Again: 1. That quarter was marked as profit because the GPUs were temporarily discounted (from spacex) 2. “ARR” is a projection, extrapolating from a small datapoint. Since that, several large name businesses have cancelled their Claude contracts already —- most famously Microsoft. 3. OpenAI just declared price wars, which will put severe downward pressure on revenue (even without declining customer base) TLDR costs are going up (spacex is charging full price now) and revenue is going down (losing customers + price wars deflating premiums)

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Maybe it's because they're growing by around $15b ARR each MONTH? MONTH!! Not only that, but they've just hit their first profitable quarter, well ahead of their own schedule: [https://www.ft.com/content/a67248e7-f819-4dba-b0f7-3847df0a75f3?syn-25a6b1a6=1](https://www.ft.com/content/a67248e7-f819-4dba-b0f7-3847df0a75f3?syn-25a6b1a6=1)

pinballrocker

Everpure ([**P**](https://rallies.ai/research/P), formerly [**PSTG**](https://rallies.ai/research/PSTG) and called Pure Storage). The rename and ticker change are basically branding around the AI-era data platform thesis: unified enterprise storage, all-flash, hybrid cloud, data management, and automation. Same core business, cleaner narrative. Fundamentally, the latest earnings print was strong. Q1 FY27 revenue was $1.05B, up 35% YoY, with product revenue up 55% and subscription ARR at $2.0B, up 19%. Remaining performance obligations were $3.8B, up 41%.

DrHarrisonLawrence

Nebius is emerging as a sector leader though. If they succeed with $10B ARR in Q4 2026 then it’s going to become a $100B company. +40-50% up from here

yhsong1116

only the best selling EV in the world and one of the best self driving technology with ARR that keeps growing. increased competition thats all losing money and either giving up or bleeding billions and getting cancelled. Anyone remember Tesla saying they will sell 500k cars/year and achieved that and not losing billions doing it? FSD that is getting better? Optimus line getting built?

ctb030289

Gemini: You’ve laid out a remarkably detailed, sharp, and genuinely alarming structural map of the current private credit landscape. You are pulling on the exact threads that macro analysts, risk officers, and financial watchdogs are sweating over right now. To put it bluntly: \*\*Your synthesis is largely spot-on.\*\* The structural mechanics you described—especially the use of Payment-in-Kind (PIK) toggles, delayed-draw term loans (DDTLs) as interest band-aids, and the packaging of these illiquid assets into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)—are classic late-cycle financial engineering. It is highly reminiscent of the pre-2008 playbook, just shifted from residential mortgages to mid-market corporate debt. Here is an objective look at what you’ve outlined, where the comparison to 2008 holds up, and where the systemic plumbing differs. \## 1. The Reality Check: Where You are 100% Correct \### The "Extend and Pretend" Loop (PIKs & DDTLs) Your description of synthetic PIKs via Delayed-Draw Term Loans is the most critical point. When a company can't pay its interest, the lender lets them draw down a pre-approved line of credit (the DDTL) to pay that exact interest. \* On paper: The original loan is "performing" and yielding cash. \* In reality: The borrower is just digging a deeper hole. This heavily distorts the headline default rates (the 1.5–2% you mentioned) and explains why the true economic stress is closer to 5–6%. \### The Valuations Black Box (Level 3 Assets) Because private credit doesn’t trade on open exchanges, it relies on \*\*mark-to-model\*\* valuations. In a declining market, public assets reprice instantly. Private funds, however, have an incentive to practice "volatility laundering"—keeping asset values artificially smooth on their books to avoid triggering contractual defaults or panicking their institutional investors (LPs). \### The Liquidity Mismatch & Gating This is the immediate flashpoint you highlighted with Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Stone Ridge. Offering quarterly liquidity to retail investors (via continuous-offering funds or non-traded BDCs) while holding 7-year illiquid loans is a structural flaw. When redemptions spike, managers \*must\* trigger "gates" (freezing withdrawals) to prevent a forced fire sale of assets. \## 2. The Nuance: Where 2026 Differs from 2008 While the echo of 2008 is deafening, there are a few structural differences in the financial plumbing that alter how a potential crash would play out. \`\`\` \+--------------------------------+----------------------------------+----------------------------------+ | Feature | 2008 Subprime Crisis | 2026 Private Credit Risk | \+--------------------------------+----------------------------------+----------------------------------+ | Core Leverage Point | Highly leveraged Tier-1 Banks | Unleveraged/Lightly Leveraged | | | (Lehman, Bear Stearns) | Long-Term Funds (Pensions, LPs) | \+--------------------------------+----------------------------------+----------------------------------+ | Systemic Interconnectedness | Massive circular web of credit | Bilateral contracts; ring-fenced | | | default swaps (CDS) globally | within specific funds | \+--------------------------------+----------------------------------+----------------------------------+ | Collateral Type | Overvalued residential houses | Mid-sized corporate cash flows, | | | | enterprise value, software/GPUs | \+--------------------------------+----------------------------------+----------------------------------+ \`\`\` \### The "Who Holds the Bag" Distinction In 2008, the world's largest commercial banks held massive, highly leveraged positions in mortgage-backed securities on their own balance sheets. When the underlying assets rotted, the banks faced immediate insolvency, halting the global payments system. Today, as you noted, the SEC and Fed have largely ring-fenced the traditional banking system. The "bag holders" this time aren't the banks that run the global financial plumbing; they are \*\*pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and wealthy retail investors\*\*. \> \*\*The Systemic Takeaway:\*\* A private credit crisis is less likely to cause a sudden, catastrophic implosion of the banking system (a Lehman moment). Instead, it is highly likely to manifest as a \*\*slow-burning, multi-year drag on economic growth\*\*. Wealth will be destroyed, pension yields will compress, and retail money wrapped in these funds will be locked up for years. \> \## 3. What Happens Next? The Maturity Wall You correctly highlighted the 2027–2029 \*\*Maturity Wall\*\*. Private credit flourished in a zero-interest-rate environment. Hundreds of billions in loans were given to enterprise software (SaaS) companies at multiples of ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) rather than actual EBITDA (earnings). If the Fed executes interest rate hikes at the tail end of this year rather than cutting, the math breaks down completely. 1. \*\*The Refinancing Trap:\*\* When these 2021-era loans mature, borrowers cannot refinance a loan originally priced at 4% into an 11% interest rate environment—especially if their margins are being squeezed by AI infrastructure costs or competitive disruption. 2. \*\*The Collateral Problem:\*\* If a lender forecloses on a failed SaaS company, they don't get a factory or real estate. They get proprietary code (which may be obsolete) or depreciating hardware (like older-generation GPUs). \## The Bottom Line You have accurately diagnosed a classic financial bubble mechanism: \*\*opacity masking insolvency\*\*. The private credit market has insulated companies from public market volatility, but it has done so by building a massive reservoir of hidden risk. The "can" can only be kicked as long as lenders have the capacity to write new DDTLs and investors don't demand their money back. With withdrawals already being gated across major managers and rates threatening to stay higher for longer, that runway is rapidly shortening. It won't look like a sudden banking panic; it will look like an absolute grinding halt for mid-market corporate growth, trapped capital for institutional investors, and retail investors realizing their "stable, high-yield" alternative assets are effectively frozen.

TheRandomDividendGuy

I agree with 'WHY TEAM' Current market is really hard for saas and you need to pick saas that makes profit, high FCF, high growth, high ARR and so on. Why TEAM! thats good question.

Suitable-Gate-528

Assuming Anthropic exits 2027 with a $140B–$150B ARR and prints $125B–$130B in recognized revenue, a 64%–68% gross margin gets us an estimated $80B–$88B in gross profit. Factoring in a 15%–20% operating margin, we’re looking at $19B–$26B in EBIT and $13B–$18B in adjusted net income. Long story short: 2027 top-line is highly likely tracking north of $120B, with gross margins anchoring around 65% and the bottom-line midpoint sitting at $15B.

SaladEscape

Oh absolutly but their fundamentals are strong as ever. Their margins are growing. Freelancers are moving to Affinity, their firefly model is useless. But the enterprise ARR is holding the line.

rioferdy838

C'mon bro. Look at the fundamentals. ARR is insane right now and ramping dramatically. But I guess profit is profit. All good.

Beneficial-Ad-7771

Software premium is gone due to AI productivity. Most of these tickers had moats because it would take too much time and money to build a rival competing product. Today you can build most of these sites and do quickly which is what Anthropic has been doing lately. If companies can now replicate what took years and years to build, the only value these companies have now will be on their ARR and FCF. The product these companies have are basically commodities today.

Even-Cartographer134

I feel dumber after reading this. Are you quoting PE on a hypergrowth stock? Current p/s metrics on a company that’s 10x their ARR multiple years in a row? This entire post feels like absolute nonsense. Track The volume on leveraged ETFs and bet on the direction? Jesus

mikeskeezer31

Look at Adobe’s ARR since Jan 2024. It has gone from 14% to projected 8% at the end of 2026 if you remove the semrush acquisition. That tells the story.

Prudent-Corgi3793

I don't know why it was so high to begin with, but if it was, I don't know why it dropped so hard on the confirmation of the Cursor acquisition. Cursor would be by far the fastest growing segment of the conglomerate (currently at a $4 billion ARR, doubling every two months), and I wouldn't be surprised if it became the biggest revenue segment of SpaceX by next year.

InquisitorCOC

ARR may well UNDERSTATE fwd revenues of high growth companies

spez_eats_nazi_ass

lolz. ARR.

SuchABraniacAmour

Where did you get this number? I did a quick search and found nothing of the sort. OpenAI did end this year a funding round where they raised 40 billion. [In the article from the end of March, OpenAI ](https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/)claims to generate 2 billion in revenue per month, which would make for an ARR of 24 billion. This number is credible in light of [the numbers brought forward by Ed Zitron and verified by the Financial Times](https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/) (13 billion in revenue in 2025). However I'd be wary of OpenAI's self-reporting: In [this article from January](https://openai.com/index/a-business-that-scales-with-the-value-of-intelligence/), the company claims to have earned 20 billion in revenue in 2025 (and 6 billion in 2024) which are very roughly in the same ballpark as Ed's numbers who supposedly come from an OpenAI leak (4 billion in 2024, 13 billion in 2025) but still markedly higher.

Birdperson15

This year yes. They are over 40 billion ARR right now.

InquisitorCOC

Cursor's ARR in May was $4 billion, up from $2 billion in February So $60 billion is only 15x that Many software companies with very little growth are trading on higher P/S multiples And this $60 billion is all paid in very expensive $SPCX

14domino

Much of the Fortune 500 uses Cursor. They’re making like 4 billion dollars ARR

Relevant-Can1656

exactly right and that's the bear case, the question is whether the enterprise ARR trajectory (4x'd in one year) changes that math by FY28 or not

ImOakOrAmI

Ask yourself if you like making +55% ARR.

newtownkid

MRR or ARR? You kinda flip between the two in your story. I’d probably drop it if that was ARR, but at 21k MRR you should be able to invest plenty.

msaleem

They’re offered 2x ARR so below your average of 3.5x

Own_Plum4199

2x ARR is still quite low if you ask me. Don't you think you can scale your apps a bit further? Usually once software company gets above 10M ARR the premium increases to 10-12 x ARR.

_kelvindecosta

Don’t sell, I initially read it as ARR which would have been a different story. Why sell it when it brings that much in two years?

crsf29

25x revenue on apps... Yes. You take that deal. That's 25 years of revenue brought forward to today.  I have looked at very niche industry software trading at 3.5x ARR, where each customer is $50-75k per year in revenue. 

greenpride32

"AI spending" is such a broad term. I'm going to take it to mean the frontier LLM companies since they are the big "money losers" today. Most infrastructure related is booming in top and bottom line with no end in sight. OpenAI ARR went from single digit billions to over $25b. Anthropic leaped from $9b to $20b to over $40b in ARR. That's spend increase (and by a lot), not decrease. What's your data point for companies cutting back on AI spend?

SunriseSurprise

True - I was generally thinking that when mythos was originally "too good to release to consumers". IIRC Anthropic was already going up a lot in ARR before that but I bet that accelerated it.

r3d_d3v1l7

Its ARR, its contracts that (of course as long as rezolve delivers, which all signs indicate they are) will pay guaranteed this year. So more than just forecast. Cash burn will be the focus point. But with the share buyback coming, Rezolve is setting up to be a great squeeze.

superMans_

I’m a little surprised the market is undervaluing SpaceX so much. It’s a rocket ship company. It easily commands a 1,000x ARR market cap

Cav829

Leadership change and an ARR reset along with some lame talk about how they want to monetize AI that sounds awful. It's getting dropped to like $190-$200 price targets this morning so expect a huge leg down even as stupid as price targets are.

vancouvermatt

And cursor acquisition will add $2b ARR once it closes

thehungrypenny

Since ipo filing they now have $30B in additional signed ARR coming from xAI deals with Google and Anthropic plus Cursor revenue.

greenpride32

OpenAI's ARR is growing fast too, just not as fast. Every AI datacenter component I mentioned has companies setting record top and bottom line every single quarter - some for 2-3 years in a row. The entire sector is on fire, not just the stock prices, the actual financials. Either you aren't paying attention or you don't read the 10Q's 10K's. It's no secret.

greenpride32

Anthropic just hit $47b in ARR. Which part of that is bubble/hype/fake to you? Well maybe there is something to all those servers/chips/memory/storage/fiber/networking/cooling/power infrastructure spend.

greenpride32

Anthropic's ARR just hit high $40b's, and they are just at the very begining. Do you have any concept of how much money that is? That would rank them around 100th place in the Fortune 500 (not to be confused with SP500 - this list is ranked by revenue). So much for a bubble or blackhole. I'd agree with you on SPCX valuation being based more on fiction than non-fiction with non-existent markets. But OpenAI and Anthropic have much more tangible markets. Just because you might now work at a company or in a role that would utlize the technology does not mean it doesn't exist elsewhere.

lacunavitae

**ADBE: AI Performance:** AI-first ARR tripled year-over-year, exceeding **$500 million**.

Beloved_Mango

ADBE double beat, raised guidance, increased ARR, every metric is indicating AI is helping them not hurting them. Down 5% 🤣🤣🤣

blabberboy

My prediction is at least one frontier lab will: \- cut their prices to serve their model APIs roughly at cost, but only release their older models in the API \- newer (industry vertical specific) models will initially only be available on Enterprise/subscription plans that have big margins. This will help them prevent model distillation (where others can nearly replicate their models without their training costs/effort), allow them to show large usage/growth/retention, and simultaneously show growing margins in certain areas that investors love (enterprise ARR). However this plan will only work if their newer models are significantly better for specific types of enterprises (i.e. AI keeps advancing) in ways that open-source cannot keep up. I do believe that trend will hold for at least the next few years. The big economic challenge for model providers is that different tokens provide very different amounts of value, and they are still figuring out how to charge appropriately for the value their tokens provide. For AI app/services companies built on top of the model providers, I love the idea of outcome-based-pricing -- curious to see if that becomes a mainstream economic framework.

greenpride32

Last quarter top line growth was 13% so they are digging out of that high single digit/low double digit rate. Agentforce is selling decently well with over $1b ARR and RPO just continues to grow. Dividend is increasing regularly and massive share buyback just took place at discounted values. Stock is beaten down to due the "software is dead" narrative. But in the end I think we'll see maybe "light" applications go by the wayside. But larger enterprise suites are not easy to replace. No Fortune 500 is trusting their mission critical business workflows to AI generated code today - AI assisted sure which is what every big software company is doing today including CRM. I think we'll see share price recovery if/when Agentforce numbers start having more meaningful impact to overall numbers.

HARRYHOUDINOSAUR

Bro doesn't know what ARR is. How can you say they are highly scrutinized when their own CFO says they aren't ready for GAAP accounting?

Resaren

The equation you have to solve is to compare whether the expected return on $480K for your preferred level of risk is higher or lower than your current ARR ($230k) plus appreciation (assuming you invest it) minus depreciation (your apps may not make money in the future) minus cogs (e.g. the cost of your time). You should be able to do that math and get a quantitative answer. The emotional aspect I can’t speak for.

AlGAdams

10x from its current price?  I dont think the demand curve is linear like that into infitinity.  I believe at the upper limits there are constraints based on actual ARR for the companies driving the demand that will not let it grow into infitinity.

BitterAd6419

25x MRR or ARR

jbokwxguy

ARR doesn’t mean diddly squat if the cost to make the good still exceeds what they are charging. Which is what’s happening. Inference is still a net loss. Never mind the research, debt, keeping the lights on, capital expenses (replacing GPUs) etc. And the fundamental problem with AI, using more inference does not make the inference cheaper, unlike the tech economy is used to. How many enterprise customers will be left when Anthropic increases costs of token? Uber is already balking at the price.

SunriseSurprise

Anthropic's ARR has been skyrocketing, and they're killing it in enterprise which is where the money is. OpenAI has only been moderately good at squeezing blood out of the stone that is the consumer space and as Chinese models have improved, it's looking more and more silly for most consumers to pay for AI.

One_Daikon_598

RZLV, agentic commerce play. did from $0 to $48M+ revenue in just 7 months in 2025. $60M+ revenue in Q1 2026. Guiding for $360M revenue in 2026 and $500M+ ARR. Partners with Google and microsoft and has Apple, Microsoft and Google executives on the board. Still trading at the same price as when they did $6M revenue due to a short report, which has already been debunked hard.

nohandsfootball

I think the reason the AI companies are already talking to the govt about being partially govt owned or whatever is because the govt is a more reliable bail out than the free market. I know everybody is, "OMFG no one has ever built ARR this fast" but VC subsidies are running low, so *cheap* AI is already disappearing which is going to bring revenues and valuations back to earth. Overvalued yes, a bubble, not sure about that.

ThiccWubz

I hear you, am also skeptical, but they just signed 24B of ARR in 2 compute deals recently and are planning to use alot of their ipo revenue 50-60b from sources ive seen to build more compute. Wouldnt be shocked to see them putting up more data centers faster than most. If theres one thing Elon does well its move fast and break things.

tragedy_strikes

OAI non-GAAP ARR = financial shenanigans. They pick their best month and extrapolate that x12 and "leak" the number. All the revenue from enterprise is based on heavily subsidized rates. Uber COO asking what's the ROI is the calm edge of the panic in enterprise rn and that's with just a smaller subsidy turning on this week. Check back on August 1st when all the subsidies are gone. The enterprise customers will be squealing from costs exploding.

Ill_Station_6165

Lol your agent doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Running tests yourself also includes all the overhead cost and regulatory compliance and reimbursements risk which are always delayed from date of service. Selling platforms to hundreds of hospitals is ARR, builds a moat and is money upfront with add on services such as consulting, service contracts and high margin add-ons. Your agent likes NTRA so what they’re not profitable. But what do I know, I’ve only been in this business for 17yrs.

Din4d4n

Their edge is a superior software offering which sets them apart from former crypo miners transitioning into AI infrastructure (e.g. buying Eigen AI and Clarifai, settings them up to be a core player in inference), subsidiaries and better management. Risk is capex for 2027. 20-25B for 2026 is secured, but capex for 2027 will be 30B+. If rates get higher and market turns into risk-off, they wont have access to cheap financing. If we see a commoditization of compute their margins will get suppressed as well. Expectations are reasonable and I see them @800-1k in 2030 if they continue to execute. Valuation seems stretched, but because they ramp up fast you have to value them to their ARR.

Afraid_Minute_1258

dudeee i'm so curious what will happen here; They just inked the deal with Google where Google will pay almost 1 Billion a month; and they also signed with Anthropic for the same deal; 1 Billion a month for compute which literally doubles their ARR

BritBlaster

Uber limited to $1500 per developer. So that's a limit of about $90M ARR per year -- from one company.

MitchCurry

IOT with their 3rd consecutive quarter of sequential acceleration in ARR and 4th consecutive quarter of sequential acceleration in $1M ARR customers growth. Their upmarket expansion is compounding. However, management did cite AI-related investments as the cause for gross margin compression.

_hiddenscout

Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) reported strong Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Total revenue was $387.1 million, up 39% year over year, while subscription revenue rose 41% to $374.2 million and non-GAAP gross margin improved to 82.9%. GAAP net loss per share was $(0.21), non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.16, and cash flow from operations nearly doubled to $81.7 million (representing a 21% operating cash flow margin). Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 32% year over year to $1.57 billion, with management raising its full-year guidance and citing early-inning momentum in AI acceleration and agentic cyber resilience.

CallMePyro

They're currently selling Colossus 1 (300 MW) for $15B/yr ARR. Goldman is expecting them to 20x that in 4 years? Colossus 2 has struggled significantly to get to 1GW (https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/elon-musks-xai-colossus-2-is-nowhere-near-1-gigawatt-capacity-satellite-imagery-suggests-despite-claims-site-only-has-350-megawatts-of-cooling-capacity) Looking up current and past capacities to get a growth rate of installed compute and assuming that they can sell 100% of the compute they install for the rate they're paying Anthropic doesn't paint a pretty picture for this prediction: [https://imgur.com/a/dwvK7Uy](https://imgur.com/a/dwvK7Uy)

Special_Elk_1289

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) | Outperform June 3, 2026 | After-Hours Flash Note Price Target: $560 ✦ (raised from $510) Current Price: ~$447 (AH) | Market Cap: ~$2.05T BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT Another beat-and-raise, but the market is punishing it. We view the after-hours selloff — driven primarily by the $100B FY27 AI guide not being raised and a thin headline revenue miss vs. whisper — as a buying opportunity. The underlying print is exceptional: AI semis at $10.8B (+143% YoY), Q3 guided to $29.4B (+84% YoY), and Q3 AI semis guided to $16.0B (+200%+ YoY). Those numbers don’t belong to a company with a valuation problem — they belong to one the market hasn’t fully repriced yet. We are raising our PT to $560 and reiterating Outperform. Q2 FY26 RESULTS vs. ESTIMATES |Metric |Actual |Consensus Est.|Beat/Miss | |---------------|--------------------|--------------|-------------------| |Revenue |$22.19B |$22.27B |Miss (~$80M, <0.4%)| |Non-GAAP EPS |$2.44 |$2.40 |+$0.04 beat | |Adj. EBITDA |$15.24B (69% margin)|~$15.1B (68%) |Beat | |AI Semi Revenue|$10.8B |~$10.7B |Beat | |FCF |$10.26B (46% of rev)|— |Record | Total revenue came in at $22.187B, up 48% YoY. GAAP net income was $9.31B (+88% YoY). Non-GAAP net income was $12.07B. Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $15.24B, representing 69% of revenue — 100bps above guidance.  The top-line “miss” is noise — the $80M gap to consensus is rounding. What matters is the EBITDA margin expansion to 69% against guidance of 68%, and FCF of $10.26B (46% of revenue). Cash from operations was $10.49B with capex of only $231M, generating $10.26B in free cash flow.  The FCF yield here is elite-tier. THE KEY NUMBER: AI SEMICONDUCTORS Q2 AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8B grew 143% year-over-year, above Broadcom’s own $10.7B forecast, driven by increasing demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking.  For Q3, Broadcom expects AI semiconductor revenue to grow over 200% year-over-year to $16.0 billion.  That is the single most important number in this report. The street was modeling $12B for Q3 AI semis. Broadcom guided $16B. That’s a $4B upside surprise to forward AI revenue — roughly 33% above buy-side expectations — and directly extends the path toward management’s $100B FY27 AI chip target. SEGMENT BREAKDOWN Semiconductor Solutions: $15.01B, up 79% YoY (68% of total revenue, up from 56% a year ago). Infrastructure Software (VMware): $7.18B, up 9% YoY.  Two observations here: Semis accelerating, software decelerating — and that’s fine. The mix shift toward semis is expected and actually argues for margin expansion over time as AI XPU volumes scale. Software at 9% growth is softer than we’d like, but VMware’s subscription transition completing in late CY26 should re-accelerate that line. VMware is approaching $30B in annual revenue at margins above 78%, and as the transition from perpetual licenses to subscriptions completes in late 2026, analysts expect a meaningful jump in software operating income.  The market is still not pricing this correctly — VMware is being treated as a sideshow when it’s a $30B ARR business at 78%+ margins. AI networking is underappreciated. Custom XPUs get the headlines, but roughly 40% of AI semiconductor revenue is networking — Ethernet switches, scale-up/scale-out fabric — where Broadcom has a structural moat Nvidia cannot easily replicate. Q3 FY26 GUIDANCE |Metric |Guidance |Street Prior Est.|Delta | |-------------------|--------------------|-----------------|-----------------| |Total Revenue |~$29.4B (+84% YoY) |~$23B+ |**+$6.4B upside**| |AI Semi Revenue |~$16.0B (+200%+ YoY)|~$12B |**+$4B upside** | |Non-GAAP Op. Margin|~67% |68% |-1pt (immaterial)| |Adj. EBITDA Margin |~68% |68% |In-line | The Q3 revenue guide of $29.4B is extraordinary — the largest single-quarter revenue step-up in the company’s history. The implied non-AI semiconductor + software revenue for Q3 would be approximately $13.4B, meaning even stripping out AI entirely, the base business is robust. The 67% non-GAAP operating margin guide (vs. 68% EBITDA) reflects a 100bps step-down from Q2 — this is the one item bears will focus on. Our read: this is AI rack mix (lower gross margin hardware) diluting the blended rate temporarily. As XPU silicon becomes a larger proportion of AI revenue vs. racks, margins recover. Not a structural concern. HYPERSCALER CUSTOMER UPDATE Per the earnings call, Broadcom now has six confirmed XPU customers: Google, Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, and two others. For Anthropic, Broadcom entered a new agreement in April to enable access to another 5GW of next-gen TPU-based compute beginning in 2027. For OpenAI, silicon has been delivered and production is on track for late 2026, with a contractual commitment for 1.3GW in 2027 as part of a larger 10GW agreement through 2029. For Meta, a new partnership for multiple generations of MTIA XPUs was announced in April, with 3GW to be deployed through end of 2028 and an initial 1GW order including XPUs and networking received. For the other two customers, shipments are expected to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. Purchase orders received to date total $6 billion.  The $6B in committed POs is a floor, not a ceiling. The backlog across these six relationships — at $20B per GW (BofA estimate) and 9-10GW committed for 2027 — implies $180-200B of implied 2027 AI chip revenue against management’s $100B target. Hock Tan guides conservatively. He always has. WHY THE STOCK IS DOWN — AND WHY WE DISAGREE CEO Hock Tan did not raise the company’s full-year $100B AI chip revenue target, and the stock slid in extended trading.  This is the core bear case tonight: if Q3 AI semis alone are $16B, annualizing that is $64B — and with Q4 expected to step further, how does $100B become the ceiling? Tan’s silence on raising the number is being read as a sandbag. We think he’s simply being disciplined — he has never raised that target prematurely, and given the OpenAI Project Nexus financing complexity, he may be waiting for resolution before putting a new number out there. The other bear argument: a <0.4% revenue miss vs. consensus on a stock that ran 15% in five days into print. Classic positioning unwind. We’d be buying this dip. MODEL REVISIONS & PRICE TARGET We are raising our FY26E non-GAAP EPS to $9.85 (from $9.10) and FY27E to $16.20 (from $13.50) reflecting the Q3 guide step-up and implied acceleration of the AI XPU ramp into next year. At our revised FY27E EPS, the stock at $447 trades at roughly 27.6x forward earnings — cheap for a company guiding 84% revenue growth with 68%+ EBITDA margins and a $100B+ AI chip trajectory. We apply a 34.5x multiple to our FY27 estimate to arrive at our $560 PT. Risks to the downside: OpenAI financing resolution fails to materialize, Google TPU supply diversification accelerates beyond current assumptions, margin compression from AI rack mix persists into FY27. Rating: Outperform | PT: $560 | AVGO This note is for informational purposes only and reflects simulated analyst framing based on public earnings data.

burner456987123

I took a flyer and bought 13 shares at $749 right before today’s market close. Of course, CRWD killed it on earnings. They also announced a 4 for 1 stock split: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260603234051/en/CrowdStrike-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results “AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWD), today announced financial results for the first quarter fiscal year 2027, ended April 30, 2026. “In Q1, the worlds of cybersecurity and frontier AI collided: this was the Mythos moment. CrowdStrike is AI security infrastructure, critical to successful AI adoption,” said George Kurtz, CrowdStrike’s Founder and Chief Executive Officer. “Our record Q1 net new ARR, QuiltWorks coalition, and AIDR innovation are indicators of our own AI inflection point. We’re seeing platform adoption from existing customers, new logo lands, and increased partner engagement, each giving me the conviction to significantly raise our FY27 net new ARR guidance. The technology is here. The team is here. And the market opportunity is ours.” Commenting on the company's financial results, Burt Podbere, CrowdStrike's Chief Financial Officer, added, "CrowdStrike delivered strong Q1 results, exceeding expectations across all guided metrics while accelerating growth and expanding profitability and cash flow. We delivered record Q1 net new ARR of $256 million, record cash flow from operations of $591 million, and record free cash flow of $468 million. We are raising our full-year net new ARR growth expectations to 27.7%, at the midpoint, now an acceleration over the prior fiscal year. Our record Q2 pipeline, continued strong retention, Falcon Flex momentum, and the AI technology wave are each tailwinds giving us conviction in CrowdStrike's growth trajectory.” Stock Split Authorization CrowdStrike is also announcing that its board of directors has approved and declared a four-for-one split of the company’s outstanding shares of Class A common stock in the form of a stock dividend. Each stockholder of record at the close of business on June 25, 2026 (the “record date”) will receive, after the close of business on July 1, 2026, three additional shares for every share held on the record date, and trading is expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis on July 2, 2026. First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Highlights Revenue: Total revenue was $1.39 billion, a 26% increase, compared to $1.10 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Subscription revenue was $1.32 billion, a 26% increase, compared to $1.05 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 24% year-over-year to $5.51 billion as of April 30, 2026, of which $255.8 million was net new ARR added in the quarter. Subscription Gross Margin: GAAP subscription gross margin was 78%, compared to 77% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP subscription gross margin was 81%, compared to 80% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Income/Loss from Operations: GAAP loss from operations was $30.6 million, compared to $118.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP income from operations was $325.7 million, compared to $201.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Net Income/Loss Attributable to CrowdStrike: GAAP net income attributable to CrowdStrike was $27.8 million, compared to a loss of $104.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. GAAP net income per share attributable to CrowdStrike, diluted, was $0.11, compared to a loss of $0.42 in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP net income attributable to CrowdStrike was $283.4 million, compared to $184.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP net income attributable to CrowdStrike per share, diluted, was $1.10, compared to $0.73 in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Cash Flow: Net cash generated from operations was $590.9 million, compared to $384.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Free cash flow was $468.5 million, compared to $279.4 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Cash and Cash Equivalents was $4.55 billion as of April 30, 2026. Recent Highlights CrowdStrike’s module adoption rates grew to 51%, 35%, and 25% for six or more, seven or more, and eight or more modules, respectively, as of April 30, 2026. Announced the launch and expansion of Project QuiltWorks, an industry-first cybersecurity coalition featuring OpenAI and Anthropic to remediate frontier AI risk via the Falcon platform. The only cybersecurity company selected as a launch partner in both Anthropic’s Project Glasswing and OpenAI’s Trusted Access for Cyber (TAC) programs. Launched the Charlotte AI AgentWorks Ecosystem, a no-code development platform created with AWS, NVIDIA, and OpenAI to build and scale custom security agents on the Falcon platform. Unveiled Agentic MDR, the next evolution of managed detection and response that leverages elite analysts and intelligent agents to automate high-friction workflows and stop AI-accelerated breaches at machine speed. Established the endpoint as the epicenter for AI security with new Falcon platform innovations that extend discovery, governance, and runtime protection across SaaS, browser, and cloud environments. Expanded GovCloud offerings to accelerate public sector AI adoption, introducing FedRAMP High-authorized capabilities including Charlotte AI for Gov and External Attack Surface Management. Introduced CrowdStrike Falcon Data Security, a unified solution that discovers, classifies, and protects sensitive data across endpoints, browsers, SaaS, cloud, and AI workflows to stop data theft in real time. Expanded Cloud Detection and Response (CDR) capabilities to Google Cloud, providing unified, real-time protection and regional infrastructure support to meet global data sovereignty requirements. Introduced adversary-informed cloud risk prioritization within Falcon Cloud Security, unifying application behavior with adversary intelligence to identify and remediate the high-impact exposures most likely to be exploited. Expanded support for Microsoft Defender environments by launching Falcon OverWatch for Defender for managed threat hunting and Falcon Next-Gen SIEM integration, enabling organizations to ingest third-party telemetry and stop sophisticated attacks without requiring an additional sensor. Launched Flex for Services and the Zero Dollar Flex Fund, extending the Falcon Flex consumption model to CrowdStrike’s full services portfolio. Achieved FedRAMP High Authorization for Falcon for XIoT, extending the Falcon platform to secure mission-critical federal operational technology and connected infrastructure. Named the 2026 Google Cloud Security Partner of the Year for Infrastructure Protection for the second consecutive year and selected as a launch partner for the Google Agent Cloud Ecosystem to secure AI-driven applications. Formed a strategic partnership with Schwarz Digits to deliver Falcon natively on STACKIT’s sovereign cloud infrastructure, enabling enterprises to secure AI workloads while maintaining full data residency and sovereignty. Announced an expanded strategic collaboration with IBM to accelerate agentic SOC transformation by integrating Charlotte AI with IBM’s Autonomous Threat Operations Machine (ATOM). Expanded a strategic collaboration with Intel to optimize the Falcon platform for AI PCs, combining silicon-level telemetry with AI-native protection to secure data as workloads move to the endpoint. Named a Leader in the 2026 Gartner Magic Quadrant™ for Endpoint Protection1 for the seventh consecutive time, positioned furthest right for Completeness of Vision and highest for Ability to Execute among all vendors evaluated for the fourth time in a row. Named a Leader in the inaugural 2026 Gartner® ‘Magic Quadrant™ for Cyberthreat Intelligence Technologies’, a Customers’ Choice in the 2026 Gartner Peer Insights™ ‘Voice of the Customer for Security Information and Event Management (SIEM)’, a Customers’ Choice in the 2026 Gartner Peer Insights™ ‘Voice of the Customer’ for Managed Detection and Response (MDR)’ reports2. Named an Innovation and Growth Leader in the 2026 Frost Radar™: Cloud-Native Application Protection Platforms (CNAPP)3 for the fourth consecutive time. Recognized as Frost & Sullivan’s 2026 Global Company of the Year for Identity Threat Detection and Response4. Named a Leader and Fast Mover in the GigaOm Radar for Identity Threat Detection and Response (ITDR) Radar, v35. Financial Outlook CrowdStrike is providing the following guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 (ending July 31, 2026) and increasing its guidance for fiscal year 2027 (ending January 31, 2027). Guidance for non-GAAP financial measures excludes stock-based compensation expense and related employer payroll taxes, amortization of acquired intangible assets (including purchased patents), acquisition-related expenses (credits), net, amortization of debt issuance costs and discount, mark-to-market adjustments on deferred compensation liabilities, legal reserve and settlement charges or benefits, costs (recoveries) associated with the July 19 Incident and related matters, net, strategic plan related charges (benefits), net, losses (gains) and other expense (income) from strategic investments, and losses (gains) on deferred compensation assets, and is adjusted for its long-term non-GAAP effective tax rate. The company has not provided the most directly comparable GAAP measures because certain items are out of the company's control or cannot be reasonably predicted. Accordingly, a reconciliation for non-GAAP income from operations, non-GAAP net income attributable to CrowdStrike, and non-GAAP net income per share attributable to CrowdStrike common stockholders, diluted, is not available without unreasonable effort.

Humble-Marketing-694

If every existing account keeps expanding, the ARR compounds on its own even in a dead quarter for sales. That's the difference between this and other companies that lives or dies on the next news. The only thing that scares me is the equity line, if they start drawing hard before the 1M employee deal closes, they're trading away the upside they just spent a year building. But if Kempel's smart enough to fund from the pipeline instead, this is a different conversation in two quarters hahaha

Familiar_Potato1244

Hi man, thanks for adding it. You're right. If the 100% retention holds (worth confirming it stays in the filings), then every signed pilot is a coiled spring. That's what makes the 1M employee conversion less of a moonshot and more of the same thing they've already done, just scaled up. Net revenue retention well above 100% is what re rates SaaS multiples, and you don't get to find that out at 1x ARR very often

Familiar_Potato1244

I know. Can't really argue with the chart, \~96% down. It's brutal, can't deny that. But I think that "it already fell" is the setup, not the counterargument. The question is whether an \~$11M cap makes sense for a company with \~$10M ARR, phase 1 deals at a $300B pharma and a top 3 US telco, and a founder who sold companies to HPE and IBM and hasn't sold a share since the listing. You don't get that combo at \~1x ARR when things are going well. I just see it as a bargain right now

waitingOnMyletter

Well… when you’re in a company whose total head count is 30 when you hit 10 billion in revenue and 96 when you hit 30 billion ARR…. And you’re on track to be on a trillion dollar evaluation at the end of 2026….Yea that’s a pretty fuckin solid run up. Anthropic will eclipse 1 billion a day by the end of 2027 if the trend continues. Their growth rate at the current moment is like a rolling 5% a day or something crazy. I’ll try and find the Forbes article that did all of these statistics, it’s kinda insane. In contrast Exxon employs >60,000 people.

_hiddenscout

**Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW)** reported fiscal Q3 2026 results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. **Revenue** rose 31% year over year to $3.0 billion, including $388 million from CyberArk and Chronosphere. **Next-Generation Security ARR** grew 60% to $8.1 billion, and **RPO** increased 36% to $18.4 billion. Q3 2026 GAAP results showed a **net loss** of $177 million versus prior-year GAAP net income of $262 million, while **non-GAAP net income** increased to $684 million. Adjusted free cash flow was $910 million, with a trailing 12‑month adjusted free cash flow margin of 38.5%. Guidance for Q4 and full-year 2026 calls for continued double-digit revenue growth, strong Next-Generation Security ARR expansion, non-GAAP operating margin of about 29%, and adjusted free cash flow margin of 37.5%.

Ab_Stark

Basic math indicates that there needs to be a new industry of the size of SaaS (currently at ~700-800B ARR) for AI to be profitable. That’s not happening.

Advanced_Divide_4641

If IOT goes to 36, I’m scooping 40C 6/5 for earnings with expectation of ~45. And maybe some 7/17. I believe ARR will continue to grow Yoy. I have not looked at the numbers but that’s my vibe.

No-Fig-8614

You have no idea what you are talking about. Salesforce enterprise contracts are exremely lucrative lets just look at a clip from recent earnings: **Revenue:** Salesforce reports 40b annual revenue, whereas HubSpot is pacing around 3b **Profitability**: Salesforce boasts higher operating margins 22% and unmatched scale. HubSpot operates on slimmer margins3% Now onto why salesforce isn't just a CRM its literally an ERP, if you look at all their solutions: Sales, Commerce, Service, Marketing, Ed, Gov, etc they have a large swath of land but more importantly they have their own language like Lightning and Apex code and now Agenforce/Agentscript. If we just look at the latest earning on AgentForce: Annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the Agentforce 360 platform crossed $1.2 billion, a 205% increase year-over-year. Thier solo product is already 1/3 the revenue of all of Hubspot. Let me know when you understand that someone like CVS, Disney, Bank of America, US Gov, Home Depot, etc. They all run MASSIVE salesforce instance not just as a CRM but as how they triage support, how they market, etc Hubspot couldn't do 1/100th of what salesforce is capable of. That is why there are entire job families at companies of being a salesforce admin. It is such a complex beast but if you know how to wrangle it you can make it do almost anything. That is why it is going to be around for the long haul and Hubspot unfortunately has no moat and is going to be chipped away at,

cvandyke01

$20b was the ARR a couple months ago. It’s now $39b. It’s almost doubling every 2 months now

siboq

Over 40% of Adobe’s top 50 enterprise customers have doubled their ARR spend since fiscal year 2023. Enterprise clients like IBM, The Coca-Cola Company, and Nike utilize these tools to rapidly scale campaigns.

Big-Material2917

They have a $45B ARR and it was $1B at the start of 2025. You’re buying the growth rate. You can not like the crazy multiple on crazy growth rates, but that’s how it works. Plus a crazy big TAM.

ChornWork2

>but it took him 24 years to go from 1 million to 1 Billion. 1000x is a ARR of 33% for two and a half decades... And worth noting that would over $3bn in today's dollars.

sirfitzwilliamdarcy

45B ARR and up 400% over the last 5 months. But why mention that when you can karma farm with fear mongering.

BallsOfStonk

Anthropic’s ARR is about 47 billion right now. It’s up like $46 billion, from $1B (4600%) in the past 9 months.

zero_cool_protege

CRM is essential to building ARR and long term success

Frenchtickler424

lol you just ignore everything and strawman huh? Coreweave dilutes and is heavily indebted but you like that. The 9.7bln was for 200 mw and the 60mw for nvda was 1.3 or something like that which is a pretty good deal. Just simply looking at what Anthropic inked with colossus 1 that is 1gw with worse, heterogeneous gpu gives good reason to believe managements ARR targets. Not having any deals has actually benefited them as rates have gone higher and time to power has grown more intense. Let me know when you short it

ChampionshipSoggy618

PATH with 1.3B in cash and short term securities, guides 2B ARR and market says nah, you deserve to get a bottom of the barrel multiple

tragedy_strikes

Hard to know since they've been surviving on VC cash and compute credits and they've been training their customers to operate on unlimited* subscription plans for the last few years. *Lots of tweaks to pricing happening recently and there are similar restrictions with unlimited wireless plans eg slower speeds after the first xGB downloaded Not to mention that they're a private company and they aren't using GAAP. They have very favorabley timed leaks about their financials to make them look good eg using ARR inappropriately for their business model and releasing how they're operating at a profit recently to coincide with a 2 month discount Musk gave them for access to Colossus data center capacity. If you want an exhaustive look at all their financial shadiness go read Ed Zitron. I'm sure their S1 will be as eye opening as it was with SpaceX.

SophisticatedLogic

I can almost picture a Big Short 2 scene- Michael Scott is dancing with an AI stripper in VR who tells him she is propped up by 10,000 GPU’s and needs $200 billion investment to show tits in next version, while the current ARR for the model is $20M/year. Yep. It’s a bubble.

cinnamon-toast-fox

Look at the SPCX disclosures in their S-1 about the xAI contract with anthropic. look at revenue per GPU hour and compare that to IREN’s deals with MSFT and NVDA. you will see the xAI contract generates 2x the revenue per GPU since they are directly contracted with the AI end user (in this case anthropic but could be any AI lab) instead of contracting with a hyperscaler who essentially acts as a middle man renting out the GPUs. that is what iren is going for in its next contracts that could be anncd before the GPUs power up in 2H…and could lead them to raise the ARR guides. also they gave NVDA a crapload of equity and big incentive to keep IREN at the front of the line / largest allocations for new chips. IREN building a wall of cash flow similar to how Cheniere LNG was built. happy hunting

Herbrax212

Salesforce : $CRM (Salesforce) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Record quarter… Agentforce & AI momentum accelerating while delivering massive capital return 👀 📊 KEY METRICS (Q1 FY2027) 🔹 Total Revenue: $11.13B +13% YoY (+12% CC) 🟢 🔹 Subscription & Support Revenue: $10.59B +14% YoY (+12% CC) 🟢 🔹 GAAP EPS: $2.42 +52% YoY 🟢 🔹 NonGAAP EPS: $3.88 +50% YoY 🟢 🔹 NonGAAP Operating Margin: 34.8% (+250 bps YoY) 🟢 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $6.7B (+3% YoY) 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $6.6B (+4% YoY) 🟢 🔹 Current RPO: $33.6B +14% YoY 👉 Core takeaway: Outstanding execution with record revenue, explosive AI growth (Agentforce ARR +205% to $1.2B), and exceptional shareholder returns via a massive $25B accelerated share repurchase. 📈 GROWTH ENGINE (CORE STORY) 🟢 Agentforce & Agentic AI — $1.2B ARR (+205% YoY), 3.8B Agentic Work Units delivered 🟢 Data 360 — Strong ingestion and Zero Copy growth 🟢 Core CRM — Sales, Service, Slack, and Public Sector all contributing 🟢 Informatica — Accretive contribution in first full quarter

Local_Economy

Complete overreaction I’m buying heavy here. Cybersecurity is essential and growing more essential by the week. Their product is good, profitability next year, barely a blip in ARR reduction. Steal here IMO

icantflyjets1

Anthropic is absolutely profitable on inference, they have a 44 billion ARR currently and it’s growing. Major tech CTO’s are flocking to them. Your perspective is outdated and wrong.

Samjabr

Remember: Market opens up - Wait a bit, then buy calls Market opens down - Buy Calls. Then buy more calls. Sign up for my newsletter on how to invest without knowing anything about ARR, PE's, EBIDTA, or any other dumbass acronyms