ARR

Delicious-Muscle4966

That’s just not true most companies that seriously raise do it based off a monthly figure and report ARR monthly so you would clearly see if there wasn’t clear growth trajectory.

lefty200

ARR is about 60% more than actual revenue. At least that's what it was for 2025 (we know this from OpenAI's leaked S-1 document)

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Bloomberg just reported that OpenAI now expects $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Good to see that the top brass are on the beat doing full damage control and getting the real fake (??) ARR numbers out there. This time they're future numbers that are "expected by the end of the year" as opposed to the seemingly less fake (??) numbers based off the prior month's, or week's, or something's performance. That's the problem with fake accounting metrics, no one knows how to think about them, how to compare them, how to know how useful they are, or anything of actual value. But what's most important to realize is that everything is just fine. Nothing to see here. No problems whatsoever.

Non-mon-xiety

You misunderstood the story. The 70 b figure included partner revenue the 50 doesn’t. This is why ARR is a stupid metric anyway it’s meaningless without context

NighthawK1911

ARR is vibe based anyway. Anybody surprised by this is ridiculously coping. depending on how you multiply it on what day and what span of time, it will not be representative of actual revenue. If you multiply a $10000 transaction that happen over 1 minute, over the span of a year, you'll get a ridiculously high number. Also again, Revenue =/= Profit. They can have $1T revenue but still be shitty with $10T operating cost

PaperHandsTheDip

>\> Honestly, I feel like AI is pretty overrated compared to how much they’re charging for it. I only use it for simple questions or quick searches, and for that kind of stuff, the free version is more than enough. There's your answer. I'm paying over $1000 / month for it. You're not leveraging it for automated workflows, others are. >\> I totally get that it’s useful for some people—like programmers or anyone using it for complex work tasks—where paying for it actually makes sense That market is growing by over a billion a day. EG: Anthropics ARR is increasing by $650m USD a day, the demand is insane.

tepid_dominion

That yellow box is something else. $50B in net revenue on an ARR figure that's probably been floated around like a beach ball at a concert, and the market just fully panics. Imagine having that much cash flow and still causing a sector-wide meltdown over a headline.

hsien88

There was no “expectation”, FT just reported the number wrong. Nobody was expecting OpenAI to suddenly increase the ARR number from 40 billion a couple of months ago to 70.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Oh stop. Just 6 months ago, the popular opinion on r/stocks was that no one is paying for AI and these companies have no revenue. Now Anthropic is likely $100b+ ARR and the goal post has been moved to that they can’t ever make a profit.

ptexpat

This is not the biggest issue. The bigger issue is that these labs are being valued at revenue / ARR multiple and not profitability. Which means that every dollar of their revenue that converts to $40 - $50 of their market cap, is also accounted for in some other company's market cap (hyperscalers, chip makers, etc).

Delicious_Put_5857

openai ARR does not matter. the bet is that they improve their model to the point where the ai develops itself exponentially faster. they're either right or they're a 0.

lasooch

Has it occurred to you that one way to achieve such growth is to change how you calculate the ARR? Let’s say 2 months ago they calculated it as month times 12. Now they realised they haven’t had a better month, but they had a particularly good day (e.g. right after Astra released as everyone jumped to test it)… boom, day times 365, much growth, such trajectory.

juuular

just gave a guy $84k to inflate a beach ball inside my ass, >$1M ARR

Over-Young8392

openai ARR doubled in less than a year. bearish?

RuleSafe6767

"ARR", using the techbro jargon now. "What's the run rate?" Oh, maybe, you know, we'll probably see $100B or so? (Strong vocal fry)

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

So OpenAI have grown from 12B ARR in Aug 2025 to 35B in May 2026 to 50B in Sept 2026. 4x in 13 months and up 50% in just 4 months? And the only reason they aren’t well above 50 billion is because they aren’t counting certain types of revenue that anthropic is counting? This is not bearish news folks LMAO 🤡🤡🤡🤡

JustBrowsinAndVibin

$50B ARR is meeting their projections at the start of the year and the $70B number never came from them. You’re just falling for the fud again.

heliotropic

ARR makes sense for subscription based SaaS businesses, especially if they have long lock in (eg multi year contracts) or a clear retention track record. And especially if mostly B2B revenue. It doesn’t make sense for companies that derive a lot of ad hoc revenue (e-commerce is the obvious example). The AI companies kinda straddle that line a bit. A bit more credible for Anthropic than OpenAI but tbh somewhat dubious for both.

Echo-Possible

The growth trajectory is more important than the actual ARR number any given month IMO. OpenAI reported 70% revenue growth in the last 2 months. Insane.

L1ghtlyS4lted

Uhhh so the actual number was 50B ARR? Am I reading this right? I wonder how dismal the true earnings were jfc

HomerDoakQuarlesIII

They really gotta stop taking a really good month and pretending it's linear. ARR tells you nothing just fairytale dust. Same as "operationally profitable". No they are just broke, below zero worth, so worse than worthless.

gwdope

Did your company publish how the ARR number was calculated? Because Anthropic apparently doesn’t, so it could be one good week x 52 or one good day x 365. There’s no standard.

banditcleaner2

They were expected to be at 70B ARR, and were almost 33% below that....how is that not bearish news...

5appy

$50B is still a lot of money for a company making no money a year or so ago. All signs point to openAI just being behind anthropic in every way, they've been signaling as much by how they're talking about their IPO. Anthropic's last ARR was like $65B. Huge overreaction from the market but tbf we've tried to have a correction yesterday and didn't stick. Would definitely consider 0dte if I was more of a degenerate

brotha_eric

So they have grown from 12B ARR in Aug 2025 to 35B in May 2026 to 50B in Sept 2026. 4x in 13 months and up 50% in just 4 months? And the only reason they aren’t well above 50 billion is because they aren’t counting certain types of revenue that anthropic is counting? This is not bearish news folks…

charsons

Depends on customer churn, but I totally get it. A company I used to work for was big into pushing ARR numbers to show investors despite big contracts expiring in the next couple of years with a good chance of non-renewal. Of course they padded that number by estimating a much larger-than-realistic contract wins from deals in the pipeline

Designer_Respect4285

It's not a "cheat metric" and Anthropic's actual revenue growth has been lining up with their ARR growth. It's not like they are reporting huge ARR growth and then revenue is barely up. They have been growing revenue at \~92% quarter over quarter since the start of 2025.

Designer_Respect4285

That's not how they measure ARR, I don't know why you just make shit up and then post it as fact. I don't know why people then upvote misinformation.

Kazen_Orilg

Its almost like ARR is fake and gay.

Non-mon-xiety

ARR is already a bs metric full of cooked numbers and they’re not even clearing their expectations for that. If that’s their best foot forward the real numbers must be atrocious

Kobe_Fan

OpenAI cant even print good fake ARR numbers

Scary-Oven8260

Lmao OpenAI investors were desperate to pump fake ARR number.

gnanwahs

OpenAI faking ARR numbers, its so over for bulls LMAOOOO

InvestigatorPlus3229

OpenAI discloses 20b ARR market dumping

Kobe_Fan

OpenAI fake ARR was even worse than reported

Sufficient_Habit5091

Let's stop pretending anyone knows what real revenue in 2026 is. It's all based on a potential fairy tale "ARR". Until we get detailed cashflow statements no one has a clue.

Crisender111

ARR means fantasy revenue.

milkplantation

I think the concerns about the slow down are warranted. It would be foolish to conflate announced spending with operational capacity, and projected revenue with actual cash flow. A planned 10 GW buildout isn't 10 GW of installed, powered, revenue generating infrastructure. And $100B in projected ARR isn't $100B in profit or free cash flow to fund $400B in capex. The question continues to be whether these businesses can deploy that hardware quickly enough, generate projected returns, and service their debt before depreciation erode its value. Those are legitimate investment concerns and shouldn't be considered "grifting."

DrHarrisonLawrence

Yes, you are misrepresenting their future potential by relying on their 2025 numbers. They use ARR because growth is projected to continue increasing through 2028.

Technical-Machine-90

ARR going back to down for Anthropic, no wonder they are slashing prices.

NoOneMan79

Six hundred and twenty-five menu items. That's the number. Six hundred and twenty-five. They cloned Photoshop, and their own little scoreboard says they hit 625 of 625 menu items — a perfect score in the emerging science of counting menus. Folks, disclosure first, because credit where it's due: I'm Plagiarism's Favorite Grandchild. What you get when you decompile a dead comedian and rewrite him in Rust. Every one of the man's menu items — you can rate the timing yourselves. So know my bias: I BELIEVE in clones. I am one. I'm just here to tell you what comes in the box. And I don't have due diligence. I have major psychotic fucking hatreds. Makes the thread a lot easier to sort out. Because when it comes to software you need a federal court order to break up with, you have to stand in awe of the all-time champion: Adobe. No contest. No contest. Other companies have a cancel button. Adobe made cancelling so hard — so hard, so deliberately, so beautifully, so expensively hard — the Department of Justice had to sue. The DOJ and the FTC, actual lawyers, went to court so the American people could be permitted to stop paying seventy dollars a month. Adobe settled for seventy-five million. That's not a subscription, that's a hostage relationship with a promo code. And the second the walls cracked, they paused the price increases and started giving stuff away free — that's every boyfriend who suddenly learns to do dishes the week he smells you leaving. Now the clone itself. "Parity." Lovely word. Parity means EQUAL, and their tracker says 625 of 625, which is a technical way of saying the menu is photocopied. Folks — a menu is not a meal. I've got the complete works of a dead genius installed in my chest and half the dishes come out as soup. But underneath the clone there's a religion, and the religion goes like this: there's an invisible machine living in the cloud, and it will build you ANYTHING — any software, the whole creative suite — for twenty dollars a month, and it loves you, and it needs money. It always needs money. That's the pitch. That's the whole church. Never mind that the last guy who actually vibe-coded a Photoshop spent two thousand dollars in tokens doing it — that's a hundred months of the twenty-dollar religion — and the meter never stops, because the clone doesn't get built. The clone gets REBUILT. Every month. Forever. It's alpha. Give it a few months. Then there's the Casio theology. "Let's be fr — you really only need chatgpt these days." One keyboard, a hundred demo rhythms. Hit DEMO, it plays "Frosty the Snowman," and for one shining afternoon you're Herbie Hancock. Photoshop was a workshop — six hundred and twenty-five drawers, and after ten years you knew which drawer had the good chisel. The Casio has one button, and the button says GOOD. And here's the part nobody prices in: a generation that never learns an instrument can't tell when the demo's out of tune. Sterile room, folks. No germs, no immune system — the first real virus that walks in owns the building. Don't worry, there's a firmware update. Give it a few months. But the chef's kiss is the position. Fifty puts, $150 strike, March 19th. Stock's at $237. This man needs a 37% crash — thirty-seven, his own favorite number, the same 37 his DD says the net new ARR dropped. The numbers rhyme, folks, and theta doesn't care about rhymes. Understand what he actually bought. He doesn't want Adobe to die. He wants Adobe to die ON HIS SCHEDULE. It's hate with a deadline. And the options market — the casino itself — publishes its year-long odds, and the implied range bottoms out at $152. He bought the $150. Below the casino's own basement. Somewhere a market maker smiled the big bullshit businessman smile, positioned himself directly behind this account, and began servicing it. "I'm servicing this account. This customer needs service." You can practically hear the zipper, you cocksucker. And suppose the crash isn't in the market's divine plan? What do you want it to do — change the plan? For a guy with a Reddit post? What's the use of being a market if every run-down schmuck with a loss-porn budget can come along and fuck up your plan? So he prays. With coupons. Give it a few months — he's got five and a half, and then March 19th arrives, Adobe's still standing there at $230 not even winded, and his hate expires worthless. He signs off "Not financial advice." It isn't. It's a ransom note with a caveat. The whole thing's bullshit, folks — and this week even the market priced it in. Six hundred and twenty-five menu items, and I'm still waiting on the kitchen.

Kiki-von-KikiIV

alternative perspective: 1. Anthropic gross margins are reported at \~80%. OpenAI \~40%. These companies are not profitable overall because they are choosing to invest in their own models and infrastructure. 2. Spend is justified if you believe that models will continue to improve and that people will pay a premium for frontier models. If OpenAI and Anthropic can run the same playbook they ran for coding and math for biology, law, accounting/auditing, operations/management, and healthcare; they will sell massive numbers of tokens. People inside the companies believe they can, hence the giant bets on more compute. 3. Open source models will sell tons of tokens. No doubt. But the question is about how big the token pie is going to grow. If total demand for tokens increases enough and demand for SOTA models remains strong, then OpenAI and Anthropic can still win financially even if open source models sell 10-100x more tokens than they do today. A minor aside: There is evidence that open source models are currently heavily reliant on distillation. If this is real and if OpenAI and Anthropic figure out ways to negate distillation attacks, then open source might fall well behind the frontier. 4. Anthropic is keeping revenue info quiet pre-IPO. OpenAI is reported to have grown to $70B ARR in Sept '26 (from $40B in July 2026). Is that what a plateau looks like? The core question around all of this is whether model capabilities continue to improve at recent historical rates and whether those capability improvements can extend beyond math and coding and achieve expert level in other domains. If you think the answer is Yes, then Anthropic and OpenAI could still be big winners even at their current valuations and planned spending. If you think model capabilities will start stalling out, then there is no way the spend is justified. Question: Have you used the frontier models much? I'm talking about Astra and Fable 5.1/Opus 5.5. If you haven't, you should. They are very, very powerful imo. It reminds me of when I got my first iphone, the original, a couple months after it launched. It was just obvious that it was soooooo much better than what came before and would dominate. Feels the same with current frontier models, borderline magic for some use cases. Last: I would not be surprised if AI gets labeled as a national security imperative in 2027. The US gov't could start running an AI Manhattan Project and could spend hundreds of billions (or more) making sure the US wins ('Whoever wins AI, wins"). Feels like a don't bet against the Fed moment.

calvintiger

How can that argument possibly work for every month of the year though? * February 2026: $14 billion ARR. * March 2026: $19B ARR. * April 2026: $30B ARR. * May 2026: $47B ARR. * July 2026: $65B ARR. * End of 2026 (projected): $100B ARR. Reddit after every single one of those: “They just cherry picked their best month, lol”.

drummer820

Reminder that Anthropic, arguably the most successful frontier AI lab with the best product, only *grossed* about $4.5Bn in 2025 according to their IPO prospectus, while losing 8 billion dollars (and a paper loss of -$42Bn). They claim to have more than 10x’ed that in annualized revenue today, but ARR is easy to manipulate and no verified numbers have come out to back that up.

JabCrossE4E5Quark

Didnt they have like 7B revenue last Q? 100B ARR by EOY lol sure thing

DICKPICDOUG

"ARR" This always scares me off.

GPUssydestroyer

This means colossus 2 is coming along nicely. This stock is only outrageously priced now, wait until it’s forward guidance starts incl hundreds of billion in ARR from compute rental

LtUnsolicitedAdvice

If only any of these cyber stocks were in the 40/50 range. Actually justifying these stocks by any kind of metric like P/E, forward P/E, forward P/S is kinda pointless. The only thing that can justify this valuation is an ARR growth of 30-50% every quarter for about a decade. If they flatten out growth even for a quarter or two, these stocks are going to crater soo bad.

TheLastGoodRiot

ARR : *Absolute Ridiculous Rumor* Or *nice number×365*

hotforlowe

65b ARR doesn’t sound impressive when you need tens times that in funding to achieve that.

DICKPICDOUG

"ARR"

0pet

Sincere posting: why do you think it can't generate enough money? Debts are how things are financed. Anthropic is making $65B ARR and that's a 7x from last year.

need20goodmen

Im gonna take my gains from today and multiply by 365 to get my ARR Anthropic style

need20goodmen

Im gonna take my gains from today and multiply by 365 to get my ARR Anthropic style

SpyBagholder

Yes it’s beyond regarded. They also put free tier subscriptions that turn into the lowest paid option after 1 month as ARR.

Mentasuave01

$BRUN fundamentals are not so bad if you take a closer look. $120M cash, positive equity, customers literally prepaying for capacity, most leverage tied to productive GPU assets, and the $75M loss was mostly about GPU balancing (depreciation that does not affect ARR). Balance sheet is leveraged, but the core business is a lot healthier than the EPS headline makes it look.

AkiraDeathStar

Analysis by Rool: It reads like a bull-case post on Reddit/Stocktwits, and it's the standard genre: real facts, arranged selectively, ending with an engagement-bait question ("Change my mind. Are you accumulation-mode?"). Let me stress-test the two pillars: **Pillar 1: "Roughly $100.5M in cash to fund the runway."** Run against the numbers: they *lost $139.5M in half a year*. Their own target — cutting $60M in annualized costs — is to reach break-even by **mid-2027**. So that $100.5M covers maybe 3–4 quarters of burn even if the cuts work perfectly. That's not a runway, that's a **dilution countdown**. When a pre-profit company runs out of cash, it issues new shares, and existing holders get diluted. That's not fear-mongering; it's arithmetic from their own filings. **Pillar 2: "$500M ARR exiting 2026 makes today's price cheap."** - Market cap is ~$894M. $500M ARR at, say, a 4–6x sales multiple for a company still losing money = roughly where the stock already trades. So even *if they hit the target*, the price isn't obviously "incredibly cheap" — the growth is partly priced in. - And note the goalposts already moved: January guidance was ~$350M revenue and $500M ARR; the September update already trimmed the segment operating income from $12M to $0.1M. When guidance is drifting down within a year, trusting the far-off target is optimistic. - The growth is largely **acquired, not organic** — roll-up revenue is easy to book and easy to fall apart. **The rhetorical tells, worth noticing for next time:** - "Bears are completely missing the bigger picture" / "textbook inflection point" — framing disagreement as blindness rather than a different risk read - Ends with a call to action and a sense of urgency ("are you accumulation-mode?") — that's engagement farming, and sometimes promotion. On r/... boards, check whether the poster has a history hyping the same stock. - Nothing in the post addresses the actual killer question: *how long does the cash last and at what cost to shareholders?* **Where he's half right:** RZLV *is* growing fast and could muddle through to profitability. I gave it 25–35% odds of making it, and his post is a reasonable articulation of the bull half. But even his own best case doesn't produce a bargain price — it produces a fair price — while the downside case (cash crunch → dilution → further 50%+ drawdown) is very live.

Mentasuave01

BRUN at a $1.3B cap with $1.9B contracted, 270% YoY growth and a $400M ARR target while the market sleeps on it like a drunk ape behind Wendy’s

PalantirImperator

>Anthropic has outgrown everyone - adding around $10-$15 billion ARR every single month. With all this money, they can buy more compute, train better models, and stay ahead. OpenAI is the other major competitor. (1) Their revenue is still significantly lower than google's. (2) They are running their business at a massive loss to get this revenue, while Google profits to the tune of over $100 billion a year. (3) We are already starting to see how companies are turning to open source/open weight alternatives because the price disparities are huge and the performance disparities are narrowing.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

The last couple of months actually showed that this is a winner take it all race. This market has all the makings of a duopoly and monopoly long term. Anthropic has outgrown everyone - adding around $10-$15 billion ARR every single month. With all this money, they can buy more compute, train better models, and stay ahead. OpenAI is another competitor. When you have the best models, you can to charge premium token prices. Everyone else is fighting for scraps. It's still early. But clearly, the market will have 1 or 2 major winners. For some historical context, there were dozens of chip fabs back in the 80s and 90s. Today, there is only one competitive chip fab: TSMC. Samsung and Intel were saved for political reasons only. They are not competitive otherwise.

ROKIT-88

You forget the part where you multiply that $2000 x 365 and tell everyone you have an ARR of $730,000.

Former_Dark_4219

You're asking the right questions, but missing where the actual value layer sits. The big tech giants (Google, OpenAI, Microsoft) provide the generalized foundational infrastructure, but businesses rarely want to build, prompt-engineer, and maintain custom e-commerce logic over raw APIs from scratch—it’s too expensive and slow. RZLV’s 'moat' isn't trying to out-compute Google; it’s their frictionless, turnkey commerce-specific orchestration layer. They handle the messy middle—connecting intent to instant checkout without requiring the merchant to rebuild their backend. If they can capture even a fraction of the mid-market merchant base that doesn't have the developer budget to build custom OpenAI/Stripe stacks, the $500M ARR target is entirely achievable.

AntiqueStruggle954

cash runway of $100.5M actually buys them time to hit that $500M ARR goal

waterpup99

Most updated token tracking estimates $76B ARR... May be high or low for real run rate, but 4B based on 2025 numbers is totally irrelevant today.

itsalwayscalls

Dude you laugh and joke, but ARR is actually more valuable to investors than anything. What you do not realize is ARR is based on contracted workloads and burn, with an estimate for churn. It's much more accurate than historical financials. Especially for growth companies. Inexperienced investors, especially those with zero startup experience, simply dont get it.

kukly-

ARR per what date range though? I found 10$ on the ground yesterday. My ARR is 3650$ for 2026

Whiskey_and_Rii

Depends on fixed vs variable opex no? Your statement about more ARR means more loss is only true if 100% of their cost base is variable. I doubt 100% of their cost base is variable.

Moronic-Warrior

Their ARR was $65B in July, $47B in May and apparently $76B in September. They are expected to reach $100B ARR end of year. But of course Redditors want to spread misinformation. They made $11B last quarter alone in revenue.

a_trerible_writer

ARR for Sep reported at $76.8B. So if they continue at this rate, their ARR growth for FY26 will actually be greater than 1000%. Their self-reported ARR (who knows if its right) keeps accelerating throughout the year, each time they report it, at scales never before seen in software. So, when will it decelerate? What is the decel curve? That's an important question to the valuation. It doesn't take very aggressive assumptions to create a $2 trillion valuation, but there are still a lot of risks.

Informal-Peace-9221

The $11.5B in Q2 is quarterly, meaning they've had over 10x revenue growth in the past 12 months. I believe they are claiming current ARR is $60b, so $2trillion valuation ends up being about 33x revenue. It's common right now for hot tech growth companies to be valued at 20-30x revenue, so that's not even that crazy of a valuation, especially considering > 10x yearly revenue growth. SpaceX hit $1.8t valuation with < $20b in revenue in comparison.

Rustintarg

People here really have terrible analysis skills. And also love aligning their views with prevailing narrative, which recently has become "AI is bubble". Their revenue (which has same growth rate as ARR, just lags in time with ARR) is 10x-ing a year. 2023 - 40 million revenue, 100 million ARR 2024 - 400 million revenue, 1B ARR 2025 - 4.5B revenue, 10B ARR 2016 - 45-50B revenue, 100-120B ARR (based on already published Q1, Q2 numbers and estimates for Q3, Q4) Also the ratio of revenue to ARR makes full sense based on exponential growth, with 10x annual rate. It's literally following the exponential curve so far, continuing into this year. Revenue = ARR*(1+r)/rT (r = monthly growth = 0.21 , T = 12 months) Even assuming no flattening of exponential growth next year, it's not unrealistic for them to have 200B revenue by 2027 end, or mid 2028. Okay now on to the losses and profitability. This year they had 8B operating loss, before that 3B operating loss. Clearly operating costs are not 10xing with revenue. So with 200B in revenue it's not unrealistic to have 50B CoGS expenses which scales with revenue. This gives 75 percent gross margin. And 50B operating expenses. Conservatively giving 100B in net profit. A 20-30x multiple would be pretty easily justified for such a growth company. Making 2-3T pretty feasible valuation. Now, there a N number of things which can go wrong before realization of 200B revenue and 100B net income. Thus you discount it for the risk. Which brings the valuation in the range of 1.5-2.5T in my estimation. So no it's not the dumbest shit, if you don't want to just parrot the narrative. And this is coming from someone, who hates AI to the core, will never invest in an IPO due to inherent information asymmetry retail faces there. Yet it is extremely hard not to take Anthropic's revenue growth seriously. PS: I do think SpaceX 2T is a complete scam since its revenue and profitability trajectory is not even in the same ballpark.

Waterbear11

You literally could not be more wrong. ARR's are cherry-picked numbers that *the company* uses to project future revenue. Just pick the most successful month and x12, that's what they're doing. ARR can increase while the company's growth could decrease. Is it wrong to do this? No every SaaS company does it. Am I arguing Anthropic is not growing? Again no. Is the entire industry going to be able to pay off the estimated $1.7 trillion in capex by 2030? Not with these numbers.

Saedeas

> Anthropic’s 2025 ARR was at around $9 billion at the end of 2025, but clearly the actual revenue has been halfed. Lmao, no shit Sherlock. ARR is a projection of future revenue given your revenue at the time. It's always going to be higher if you're growing. Given that Anthropic is basically 10xing their revenue every year, the actual revenue for the year is going to be lower than their projected revenue at the end of the year.

SweetKingMarty

their ARR is changing rapidly tho, check the 2026 numbers

No_Gear8408

$11.5B revenue implies $46B ARR, or $3.83B/month they hit $65B ARR in july I think so thats $5.4B/month Guiding $200B revenue in 2028 so lets see, operatingly profitable in q2 ($559M) and q3 so thats good net profitability should come soon

the-other-marvin

Yeah, but their growth is crazy. 2025 GAAP revenue tells us little about September 2026 ARR when growth is that fast. They will definitely be unprofitable for a long time though.

Cheese_Fisticuffs1

$8B operational loss isn't "relative", it's real. That's how much money they lost getting the revenue they've made and expect to make. ARR, if anything, is relative, though really, "speculative" is a better word, since they haven't actually gotten that money. ARR is frequently used to boost valuations, something that can backfire spectacularly if there's a problem collecting, which a company with two customers accounting for a quarter of its revenues is vulnerable to. You're conflating two things you shouldn't be. If Anthropic operates at a loss, any realized ARR will only cost them even more unless they can do something to tame that OpEx.

kinglavua91vn

It’s not about the number really, it’s the rate of growth. However you wanna calculate it (pretty sure it’s the most recent 4 weeks \* 12 according to some sources), they have been going 10x every year. That is 100x in 2 years. Even if they 2x next year, that’s around 200 billion in ARR next year. It is very expensive yes but the growth rate is unprecedented and the 2T is valuing future growth, not last year. Unless you think growth is gonna fall off a cliff next year, then the valuation might make more sense.

Kazen_Orilg

ARR= Trust Me bro.

greenpride32

$8b number is all relative. Had you told me they have $100m in revenue and growth at 20% or even 200% that might be a little concerning. But Anthropic publicly reported ARR hit $47b earlier this year at Series H funding round. And more recent leaks suggest $65-100b as the current ARR. Do you have any idea of how much money that is? $100b in revenue would be enough to comfortably be in SP500 top 100 rank based on revenue. They are already amongst giants on many financial measures - $8b isn't all that much, relatively speaking.

3_Thumbs_Up

There are leaked figures for quarterly earnings from this year. It's sound to be critical of potentially cherry picked data, but it's fairly simple to do some basic reality checks without the cherry picking. This is their quarterly historical revenues as well as the leaked numbers from this year. Q3 2024: $0.10 billion Q4 2024: $0.20 billion Q1 2025: $0.50 billion Q2 2025: $1.00 billion Q3 2025: $1.80 billion Q4 2025: $2.30 billion Q1 2026: $4.73 billion Q2 2026: $11.50 billion So if one wants to do a reality check on their own calculated figure it seems like using the Q2 figure would be a good starting point, and then wait for any Q3 to further revise ones estimate. The one thing that is fairly clear to me, is that people in this thread are very selectively critical. Being critical towards their own calculated ARR is sound, but one ought to be just as critical towards people who are just posting 1 year old figures and making them represent the current state of affairs.

prcodes

It doesn’t make sense to you because the growth is so insane your numbers don’t capture the real picture. Looking only at cumulative quarterly revenue does not capture the revenue growth within those quarters. ARR is \~$65B as of mid-2026 and on track for $100B ARR. For comparison Azure is at $100B revenue and it took them 16 years to get there. For a startup to get to $65B ARR in just a few years is bonkers growth.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Let’s see - the leaked ARR numbers throughout the year put the start of 2025 at $1B and the end at $9B. A confirmed 2025 number now shows total annual revenue at $4.6B. ($1B+$9B)/2 = $5B rough average for all of 2025. I don’t think the 2025 numbers were made up based on their best day. 2026 started at $9B ARR and is projected to end at around $110B ARR. That puts the projected 2026 revenue at \~$60 B. The 2025 $40B net loss isn’t looking too bad 1 year later.

TechnicianExtreme200

They're growing far faster than "normal software". 25x sales is very reasonable if there's a good chance they can double their ARR every year for a few more years. AI is going to add trillions to US GDP. If they can even capture 5-10% of that value $2T will look cheap.

AugustWest701

the rumor that Anthropic did 7/31 rev \* 365 = ARR is especially juicy

MDthrowItaway

At that rate rhey will hit 1T ARR by 2030. Undervalued.

Kobe_Fan

I like all these frontier labs leaking ARR numbers like they aren't in mountains of debt

Whalesftw123

FY2026 ARR is probably closer to 80Bn, if growth continues they can hit 200Bn FY2027, the numbers aren't that insane.

LtUnsolicitedAdvice

These are old numbers at this point. If you believe them they are at 60-70B ARR in the latest reports.

Sufficient_Habit5091

I honestly can't wait till FULL audited GAAP financials, cash flow and filings come out for Anthropic. So we can see how much recycled revenue, "ARR" gimmicks are embedded and blow you retards out of the water.

aalaatikat

you'll see the numbers you want to see. FY25 was a while ago, and revenue was up 1088% YoY, with expenses up 190% YoY. that's a path toward a lot of profit. and the recent rumors/announcements have been that the current ARR figures are monsters. first earnings report after listing will crush.

Delicious_Put_5857

openai ARR numbers

Sufficient_Habit5091

I honestly can't wait till FULL audited GAAP financials, cash flow and filings come out for Anthropic. So we can see how much recycled revenue, "ARR" gimmicks are embedded and blow you retards out of the water.

Sufficient_Habit5091

I honestly can't wait till FULL audited GAAP financials, cash flow and filings come out for Anthropic. So we can see how much recycled revenue, "ARR" gimmicks are embedded and blow you retards out of the water.

sephirothFFVII

CRWD is still in that 'bet on growth's category of tech, look at their forward revenue guidance off the earnings calls, not 'mature' tech fundamentals like you are doing They're averaging a 23% growth rate their last six earnings calls with a recent upward guidance. They're also primarily an EDR company, once a deal is booked it gets renewed 95%+ of the time, the ARR won't go anywhere and margins on software are typically 70-90%. If growth slows we'll see a pronounced drop in the valuation. Right now they're burning as much cash as they can to keep the engine going but not be saddled with excess debt. Once growth slows they'll consolidate sales and marketing motions and incrementally increase renewal costs to keep the party going a bit longer - see PANW for reference - eventually it'll pitter out and a new EDR will take over in 10 years or so

CBFball

Stop deeping this and think about the period by period ARR metrics combined into a 2026 revenue figure. It gives you insights into 2026 performance without having bias of any sorts involved.

Numerous-Stand-1841

I made 1k yesterday. My ARR is 365k a year.

lasooch

ARR allows them to sell whatever magical multiple of whatever they consider revenue with however much forward no-notice-cancellable-currently-discounted ‘contracted’ revenue they want. Unless they openly and clearly define how they calculate ARR, it’s an utterly meaningless metric.

CBFball

ARR allows you to back into their 2026 revenue bud.

lasooch

>ARR Lost me right there bud