ARR

Individual-Bowl4742

That tender price isn't a clean comp; secondaries bake in a big liquidity haircut. What matters is whether Figma can hold 30%-plus growth and inch toward positive EBIT. If so, an 8–11× 2025 sales multiple gives $40-55 a share even after dilution. I’d sanity-check by comparing ARR per seat with Atlassian and running a quick discounted cash-flow that drops gross margin two points each year. That range feels a lot closer to fair.

bltn2024

RZLV AI for e-commerce, just added to Russell 2000/3000. CEO is highly experienced in growing companies in the e-commerce arena. Working with some bigs... Supposedly $70-100MM ARR growth in the last year.

rarebirdcapital

Just a clarification — it’s 10K customers with over $10K in ARR. They don’t disclose their total number of customers, but they do mention having 13M monthly active users.

FarrisAT

Unironically speaking, what would YouTube be worth if it IPOd today? I say $700bn assuming the revenue is worth 50% of Netflix. Longtime GOOG bear Analyst Luria says YouTube is worth $600bn. That’s without the YouTubeTV or YouTube Music businesses which are technically under Alphabet Inc. ARR of $22bn on those would be ~$200bn with a conservative 10x multiple.

MitchCurry

Giving the Figma S-1 a cursory peruse. Paid customers w/ >$10,000 in ARR grew 45% in 2024 to 10,517 while >$100,000 grew 53%. NRR grew to 134% from 122%. Revenue was up 48% while gross margin fell from 91% in 2023 to 88% in 2024.

EnragedMoose

12-13 seems reasonable given the ARR. Not extravagant.

T-Zing

When the US puts bitcoin in their reserve, it will be a valid as a reserve to back up USDC and USDT, which means they no longer need to buy low yield bonds. Now they have ++20% ARR for printing money out of thin air which they can immediately buy more btc with, which has no way to go but up because of the constant flow of money. I've had my holy shit moment, and now the politicians are finding out. This is a limitless Ponzi scheme which is completely out of control. There is no ceiling. Join whenever you feel like, but I would say sooner rather than later.

No_Engineering5783

I’m holding 200. Can’t tell if hype is real or faked. Does anyone know the source of the $70M ARR? Only can find $9.8M with Mexican retailer, Liverpool. CEO previously overstated his previous company’s strength on wiki: “ After the collapse of the business, a series of articles by the Financial Times called into question several of the claims that had previously been made. Powa's self-proclaimed 2014 valuation of $2.6 billion was investigated, and it was concluded that $106 million (£75 million) was a more accurate figure.[16] The claimed "10-year strategic alliance with ‘limitless’ potential” deal with China UnionPay that Dan Wagner personally described in a quote to the BBC as “Why did China UnionPay decide to partner with a little British technology company? We’ve trumped ApplePay and the rest of the world here...” was found to be unknown to China UnionPay who had their lawyers request that Powa stop making the false claims “

GortimerGibbons

Interesting. I plugged your prompt into my overlord, but I changed Robinhood to TastyTrade, and I changed option call to option plays. It seems to agree on AAPL, which is interesting because I've been looking at some longer AAPL puts to complement my 45 DTE AMD calls. This is what the overlord told me: Mid-Cap Call Strategy Progress Software (PRGS) – Market cap ~$3.8B Catalyst: Upcoming Q2 earnings (set for early July), with strong AI/data-platform momentum: 29% YoY revenue growth & ARR up 48% . Why it's compelling: Stock recently rallied, and near-term resistance around $65–$66 sets up a classic earnings play . Trade Setup: Buy the July 18 $65 call (~$2.50 premium, ~3.9% of current price) . Outlook: If PRGS beats, we could see a sharp up-move into earnings (~50%+), delivering potential 2× or more on the premium. Greeks: Delta ~0.40–0.50: solid upside exposure Vega positive: pre-earnings IV rise should boost call value Theta: limited decay thanks to short-term expiry Risk management: Max loss is the premium (~$250). Good liquidity and tight spreads on this strike. Alternatives: For more conservative exposure, consider a $60/$65 call debit spread, reducing premium cost with capped upside. Large-Cap Put Strategy Apple Inc (AAPL) – Market cap ~$3.3T Catalyst concerns: Macro risks from trade/tariff policy uncertainty & cooling consumer demand . High P/E (~33.7) leaves little margin for error . Trade Setup: Buy the September $195 put, delta ~0.30–0.35, 10–12 weeks out. Rationale: If macro headwinds hit consumer tech, AAPL could pull back 5–10%. This put offers 2× leverage on a 5–6% move. Greeks: Delta ~‑0.35: reasonable downside participation Theta: moderate; with longer-dated expiry, decay is slower Vega: benefits from any volatility spike from macro shocks Monitor: Watch upcoming trade/tariff headlines or consumer sentiment data for entry triggers. Strategy Comparison Strategy Trade Max Loss Potential Gain Outlook PRGS Call July 18 $65 call for ~$2.50 ~$250 per contract 2×+ if up 20%+ into earnings Bullish on AI/data catalyst AAPL Put Sept $195 put, delta ~‑0.35 Premium paid ~2× profit if large-cap tech slips Defensive macro hedge Next Steps & Risk Tips 1. Execute early July for PRGS once any pre-earnings momentum confirms. 2. Stagger AAPL entry, ideally in late July/early August, after summer data or policy events. 3. Position sizing: Use small allocations per contract; full loss = premium. 4. Have an exit plan: PRGS calls: scale out 40–60% into any move; roll or close post-earnings. AAPL puts: If AAPL bleeds 3–4%, consider closing 50% to lock in gains and let the rest run. By blending a short-term catalyst-driven call on PRGS with a strategic hedge in AAPL via puts, this dual strategy positions for outsized gains while managing downside risks in large caps. Want advanced Greek-level analysis or strike examples? Let me know!

Hacking_the_Gibson

> Think of it like this, it will take a small pie from each MNO in each region, but it takes them from the whole world. Okay, great. What's the total revenue expected from all of this? There are an estimated 6B smart phones globally. For a moment, let's assume that 100% of all smart phone owners take the $2/month add-on. That yields ARR of $144B. Considering at that point you would have literally no more growth, except for population itself, you wouldn't likely be trading at very much more than a year of revenue, you get a market cap of $144B. ASTS is 1/10th of the way to that outcome with effectively zero users right now. You guys can do what you want, but if there end up being more than 120M users of this solution at some point, I will be shocked.

Hacking_the_Gibson

How well above do you think it will be? Keep in mind that Disney+ has 120M global subscribers and Netflix has something like 300M. You had better hope average revenue per user is better than $2/month. For context, Facebook does $40/user/year or so, and that is a product which is totally free for the end user. Let’s say for the sake of argument that you do get to 120M subscribers globally. At $2/month, that’s $3B of ARR. Heck, let’s say that every single ATT and Verizon subscriber takes the $2/month add on. That’s $6B/year of ARR with the 250M subscribers they currently have. Keep in mind that the take rate will absolutely not be 100%, even at $2/month. The services you are comparing to are fucking mainstream, global players with absolutely massive advertising budgets and huge reach. How the heck are you going to advertise space phone outside of adding it to existing marketing materials at the point of purchase? What awareness campaign is going to drive casuals to pay money for a feature they might use twice per year?

Hacking_the_Gibson

I’m a perfect customer for this thing. I’m frequently out of cell range and never once have I thought how great it would be to have it right at that moment. There are a grand total of 4.6M emergency personnel across the US. Let’s say every single one is subscribed by their agency at $100/user/year. That’s $460M of ARR. Where’s the rest of the money coming from?

Realistic-Policy-128

IPO’d without any real revenue. Now up to $70 million ARR. They’ve landed some big contracts this year and have partnerships with Google and Microsoft now

TradingTennish

For now, the growth rate in the ARR is where it’s at

DirtyDishFC

Inclusion into Russell and the whole 188k to 70 million ARR supposedly but mostly Russell Im guessing.

Bitter-Razzmatazz-48

ngl $RZLV kinda came outta nowhere for me. hitting $70M ARR already and now landing in the russell? feels like ppl are still sleeping on it. the cloud partnerships make it more than just another AI play too. might dig in deeper. thx

Nicaddicted

Sucks to be you broski could’ve retired with a cool 2.25 milly at 7.5% ARR

slbaaron

I personally know 3 dudes that have went thru YC combinator and another few more that didn’t who founded / cofounded startups with at least 20M in funding now. Although 2 of them already exited / blew out at this point. Only 2 of them is your standard Stanford dropout with a dream 23 year old type bullshit, the other 5 are normal dudes with good ideas. If you could, it’s not hard to get $20M to make $20M revenue first then continue to scale towards the billion side. Most companies get 20M funding way, way, way before they ever achieved 20M ARR. Take a bigger unicorn startup example - EliseAI is valued at 1B with over 170M in funding with 50M ish ARR. Much easier than most people think to raise capital if you have the ability to turn it into legit, recurring revenue. Do it.

Successful_Okra6902

ARR 15% return reinvest the dividends

lee_suggs

You know apple ads exist and it does around $5B ARR already right?

BrownBritishBrothers

I like the ticker but sentiment on the stock is insanely negative. They are growing leaps and bounds but the market is stuck on the profitability narrative for this company and yet there are companies priced at 25x ARR with negative net income. At some point, I expect the narrative to flip.

8barzaddiction

Very happy to see today's 70 Million ARR and the confidence of reaching 100 ARR this year. 

8barzaddiction

I haven't read everything underneath so excuse me if I repeat something that was announced today. They did announce today that they reached 70 million ARR ahead of schedule in their plans, and foresee them reaching that goal of 100 million reoccurring revenue this year. My feelings are that the stock has been largely ignored. I bought in at like 1.90 I'm a bit late in the game but I wanted to pick it up when it was closer to its current value unless risky.  It feels like things could work itself up to about $3 to $5 over the next 1 to 3 months and then it's possible that they would be right for a takeover. But I'm hoping they don't sell or at least wait a couple years

FarrisAT

Microsoft has ARR of $330bn for example. At 13% growth rate guidance, that adds $42bn in 2025. Which is roughly $35bn more than OpenAI will add in 2025 ($5.5bn to $12.4bn).

touuuuhhhny

Thanks, point taken. I also don't want to be mean, as I just suggest to get a bit off the high horse of this being an "open & shut case" as the ruling in last cases end of '22 resulted in "breach + settlement", plus in the link I put it is argued in applied state law one can still have a case: *"Still, even removing the CFAA from the liability equation for access to public website data, we’ve seen that there are still potential state law claims that a site operator may bring against an unwanted data scraper.  As such, the legal landscape relating to screen scraping is uncertain and the road ahead may still some rough patches."* So there is a lot of room to argue in all directions. I agree with your point that should they lose, it is a shot in the own foot and which will probably result in the loss of an est. 150-200M ARR (\~10-15% of current overall rev). Overall lot of eyes on this case in the AI vs. (user-)publisher cases, knowing that this one is different than NYT, due to the public nature and accessibility of reddits content so far.

BrownBritishBrothers

It trades at 27x ARR, let it burn. 🔥

bullrfuk

>Couchbase raises full-year revenue and ARR outlook to 10% and 18% growth, while advancing Capella adoption Since when couchbase is a publicly traded company LMAO

fredditf

$CRWD | CrowdStrike Q1 Earnings Highlights 🔹 Revenue: $1.10B (Est. $1.10B) 🟡; UP +20% YoY 🔹 Adj EPS: $0.73 (Est. $0.66) 🟢 🔸 Share repurchase program authorized up to $1B FY26 Guidance 🔹 Revenue: $4.74B–$4.81B (Est. $4.79B) 🟡 🔹 Adj EPS: $3.44–$3.56 (Est. $3.45) 🟢 🔹 Adj Operating Income: $970.8M–$1.01B 🔹 Adj Net Income: $878.7M–$909.7M 🔹 Non-GAAP Tax Rate: 22.5% 🔹 Weighted Avg Diluted Shares: 256M Q2 Guidance 🔹 Revenue: $1.1447B–$1.1516B 🔹 Adj EPS: $0.82–$0.84 🔹 Adj Operating Income: $226.9M–$233.1M 🔹 Adj Net Income: $209.1M–$213.8M 🔹 Weighted Avg Diluted Shares: 255M Other Key Q1 Metrics: 🔹 Subscription Revenue: $1.05B; UP +20% YoY 🔹 Net New ARR: $193.8M 🔹 Ending ARR: $4.44B; UP +22% YoY 🔹 Cash Flow from Operations: $384.1M (Record High) 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $279.4M; DOWN from $322.5M YoY 🔹 Cash & Cash Equivalents: $4.61B Q1 Non-GAAP Profitability Metrics: 🔹 Operating Income: $201.1M; DOWN from $213.3M YoY 🔹 Net Income: $184.7M; DOWN from $196.8M YoY 🔹 Subscription Gross Margin: 80% (vs. 81% YoY) Strategic & Operational Highlights 🔸 Share repurchase program authorized up to $1B 🔸 Falcon Flex total deal value exceeded $3.2B; up 6x YoY 🔸 Sustained 97% gross retention, strong net retention 🔸 Achieved FedRAMP High Authorization 🔸 Delivered Falcon Privileged Access module and Charlotte AI Agentic Workflows 🔸 Launched new Exposure Management tools and AI risk solutions 🔸 Expanded strategic partnership with Microsoft and Google Cloud 🔸 Named Google Cloud 2025 Security Partner of the Year 🔸 Recognized in multiple 2025 industry radar reports as a Leader in XDR, ITDR, and Runtime Security CEO George Kurtz Commentary 🔸 “Strong Q1 led by record large-deal momentum and adoption of Falcon as the platform of choice for the AI era. Our innovation and scale push us toward $10B in ARR.” CFO Burt Podbere Commentary 🔸 “We exceeded expectations on ARR and earnings. Falcon Flex expansion and pipeline strength reinforce our confidence in accelerating ARR and margin expansion in H2 FY26.”

TheComicSocks

My apologies, I misinterpreted/misread/misquoted the letter. The ARR is still very good though!

Din4d4n

They're projecting $750M-$1B in ARR, not profit.

Gom_KBull

how far up yall think SEE ELL BEE ARR will run?

Even-Cartographer134

Second NBIS. Don’t necessarily believe it’s undervalued bc I don’t think it’s possible to truly value right now. They’re aiming for $1bil ARR end of year and they’re on track. For reference they were at $50mil end of last year? And $250mil ARR in the most recent qtr. Still in startup phase and have to trust mgmt bc the numbers aren’t there yet, but if they meet managements targets, it’s a potential rocket.

BackBlerry

Lol. Just get A public REIT then like ARR or MFA or an ETF combining these. It's the same but legit and you retain control of your cash. Can offcourse crash as well, but if you want to go into this sector then this is the way to go imo.

Infinite_Prize287

I open a bunch of small positions in industries/companies that I think are compelling.  What I've noticed is you can't predict how an emerging company will do from balance sheets, and even if you're right about a company, if the timing isnt right, youre still wrong. ARR for some companies and backlogs are excellent signs though regardless. Growth masks inefficiency, success requires scaling, scaling demands efficiency. Eventually efficiencies do matter, but initially it's all about the story for small cap growth. For small cap value it's very much fundamentals driven.

MoulaMan

Ugh I’m down 24%, I was hoping it would shoot closer to $30 post-earnings, so much so that I didn’t even sell calls for extra premium as I hoped there might be some good surprise. Dunno what to make of it, seems as if they’re not seeing any tailwinds at all nor shift in investor sentiment. I sold a few June 26 16.5 puts today. Anyways if I liked it at $23 no reason not to like it under $18. ARR and FCF still growing, plenty of cash. What are your thoughts? Doubling down?

joshTheGoods

Yes? They get their asses kicked in benchmarks against DeepSeek, and I can't run Grok in my own cluster (unless you want Grok1, lol). xAI have like 100M in ARR (even that's questionable) yet they just spent 40B on Twitter and 300M on a Telegram integration? Naaa, this is just another overhyped and overvalued piece of shit from Musk, and this time it's in a super competitive space. In no world does xAI beat _google_ let alone the academics putting out great free stuff. At the end of the day, no one wants to work with Grok. You have to give them your data, and who in their right mind would trust Musk with their sensitive data? Who in their right mind would put Grok in front of devs or customers knowing that, at any moment, it might start spouting off about "white genocide" or the Holocaust?

BlazingJava

Nbis.  Has 2B in cash no debt. Best positioned against competitors like coreweave. NJ datacenter will be ready by june. Is aiming for 1B ARR end of the year. Will be impressive growth

ExaminationPretend80

The current price already reflects that, sure. But take a closer look—some solid due diligence might change your perspective. It’s a bit speculative, yes, but that’s exactly why I see it as a real money-making opportunity. Just hitting their ARR goal this year could shift everything. And given how far along they already are, it actually looks like they might overachieve. Just do me one favor: check the stock price a year from now and see where it stands.

world_traveler_007

A good alternative is to use the Flexmethod but you need $50,000. It has all the market upside with downside protection. No more sleepless nights worrying about markets, grows 10-13% ARR depending on health and provides an increasing tax-advantaged income.

_hiddenscout

$PANW * Revenue grew 15% YoY to $2.3 billion in Q3 2025 * Next-Generation Security ARR increased 34% YoY to $5.1 billion * Non-GAAP net income rose to $0.6 billion from $0.5 billion YoY * Strong remaining performance obligation growth of 19% YoY to $13.5 billion * Healthy projected non-GAAP operating margin of 28.2-28.5% for FY2025 * GAAP net income per diluted share decreased to $0.37 from $0.39 YoY * Revenue growth rate of 14-15% for Q4 guidance shows slight deceleration For the fiscal fourth quarter 2025: * Next-Generation Security ARR of $5.52 billion to $5.57 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 31% and 32%. * Remaining performance obligation of $15.2 billion to $15.3 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 19% and 20%. * Total revenue in the range of $2.49 billion to $2.51 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 14% and 15%. * Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $0.87 to $0.89, using 704 million to 707 million shares outstanding. For the fiscal year 2025: * Next-Generation Security ARR of $5.52 billion to $5.57 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 31% and 32%. * Remaining performance obligation of $15.2 billion to $15.3 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 19% and 20%. * Total revenue in the range of $9.17 billion to $9.19 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14%. * Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 28.2% to 28.5%. * Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.26 to $3.28, using 700 million to 708 million shares outstanding. * Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 37.5% to 38.0%.

ihateallmoney

🚨 $NBIS Q1 Earnings 🚨 • Sales $55M vs. Est. $58M • EPS ($0.39) vs. Est. ($0.45) • EBITDA ($63M) vs. Est. ($94M) • ARR $249M vs. Est. $220M FY25 Outlook • ARR: $875M Adjusted EBITDA is expected to turn positive by 2H FY25 👀

creemeeseason

NBIS earnings: Revenue of $55.3M vs. $57.7M est. Adj. EBITDA of $(62.6M) vs. $(94.4M) est. EPS of $(0.39) vs. $(0.45) est. March ARR of $249M vs. $220M+ guided Year-end ARR guidance reaffirmed at $750M-$1B.

Crazy_Donkies

Yeah.  Maybe traders expecting blowout numbers that didn't materialize? I read the financials and slides.  I feel like they beat on ARR and GAAP revenue, and seem to be forecasting higher GAAP revenue for all of 2025.  Their 2025 ARR forecast didnt climb, so it may be that which triggered selling.  Guess we need to hear what management has to say.  I hope we end the day flat. At the end of the day.  They are saying midterm middle billions in revenue.  In a growing high TAM industry.  Stock value seems fair for this.  Im not selling.

Crazy_Donkies

NBIS.  Hit forecasted revenue.  https://group.nebius.com/financials Need to hear what management says about ARR. 

TheSaltIsReal7

Invested early on PLTR, and I am bullish on this one as well, here are a couple of points to add: 1. As of Dec 2024, they have $2.5b cash on hand 2. If the 28% stake in ClickHouse is valued at the recent funding round valuation of $6b, that stake is worth $1.68b At a $8.5b mkt cap, 49.2% of their market cap is cash + a minority interest in ClickHouse. Toloka is the core business and if they hit $1b ARR as projected by EoY, at 5x sales you're already looking at a value in excess of the current. Company commentary already noted that capacity was sold out as of March 2025, i'd like to think they will hit the $1b ARR estimates. On top of all of this, you get TripleTen and Avride as well baked into the valuation. $100 PT seems excessive imo, I have it at $55 giving it just under a $13.5b valuation.

trumpdiego

1Trillion ARR by EOY 2025

iLov3musk

M2 is very important when it comes to discussing bitcoin, total M2 is what im referring to why is that so difficult to understand? Yeah globally diversified in an etf that will get you an ARR at the baseline cost of capital. We seen what happened just last month when those profit centers filpped unside down when tariffs were announced. LOL talking about quantum risk when it hasnt even arrived yet but ignoring the risk of government policy, or business risk ironic isnt it? Alot of that growth you are referring to can also be attributed to increasing M2.

davewuff

1. Dynatrace (DT) – High Conviction PUT • Reasoning: DT has run up into earnings (+20% YTD), and SaaS/AI-related names are now facing decelerating growth risks post-SE miss. If ARR or net expansion rate slips, stock could dump. • Implied Move: ~8% • Setup: Overbought. High IV. Consider puts or a bear put spread. Chatgpt is garbage sometimes, but let’s see 🤣

rawbdor

Thats not what it says at all. It says achieve a 20% ARR over the entire period. A massive win followed by relatively modest returns can still hit that mark.

_hiddenscout

$TOST Reports Q1 EPS 9c, consensus 19c Reports Q1 revenue $1.34B, consensus $1.34B. ARR as of March 31, 2025 was $1.7 billion, up 31% year over year. Total Locations increased 25% year over year to approximately 140,000. Gross Payment Volume (GPV) increased 22% year over year to $42.2 billion. "Toast kicked off the year with a fantastic first quarter - we added over 6,000 net new locations, grew our recurring gross profit streams1 37%, and delivered $133 million in Adjusted EBITDA," said Toast CEO Aman Narang. "We continue to see strong momentum across both our core business as well as our new verticals in international, retail, and enterprise including marquee wins in Applebee's and Topgolf. We are starting to see our scale and data across our 140,000 locations help our customers be more successful, which sets us up well as we continue to build out the platform and scale globally."

AluminiumCaffeine

$DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings Q1 Adj. EPS $0.56 Beats $0.44 Estimate, Sales $210.70M Beat $208.55M Estimate "The momentum we generated in 2024 in both core cloud and AI continued into Q1, as we grew total revenue 14% year-over-year, our highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2023, with AI ARR continuing to grow north of 160% year-over-year, and we delivered more than 50 new product features, over 5 times as many as we delivered in Q1 of last year.” said Paddy Srinivasan, CEO of DigitalOcean. “The strong execution of our strategy, with product innovation and go-to-market efforts focused on digital native enterprises, drove revenue from $100K+ ARR customers up 41% year over year and to 23% of total revenue. We continue to make clear progress executing our plan, solidifying our leading position as the simple, scalable and approachable Cloud"

_hiddenscout

$PTC * ARR growth of 10% year-over-year to $2,290 million * Operating cash flow increased 12% YoY to $281 million * Free cash flow grew 13% YoY to $279 million * Operating margin improved 530 bps to 35% * Non-GAAP earnings per share increased 23% to $1.79 * Gross debt reduced by 31% YoY to $1,393 million * Continued share repurchases of $75 million in Q2'25 * Successfully retired $500 million of senior notes in Q2'25 * Lowered FY'25 ARR growth guidance from 9-10% to 7-9% * Cash and cash equivalents decreased 6% YoY to $235 million * Challenging selling environment persists * Elevated macroeconomic uncertainty expected in second half of FY'25 * Operating expenses expected to increase 3-4% in FY'25 "Q2 was a solid quarter for us, and I remain extremely optimistic about our position as an enabler of the digital economy – particularly our position as a supplier of software tools that make our customers more efficient as they design, manufacture, and service their products," said Neil Barua, President and CEO, PTC. "While the current macroeconomic uncertainty makes it challenging for us to predict precisely how our customers will react, PTC is in a better position today to meet our customers' demand than ever before. I am confident that PTC can help our customers navigate this period by accelerating their continued transition into the digital age," concluded Barua.

SPAC_Time

[Rezolve Ai Smashes Past $50 Billion in GMV in Explosive start to 2025, Over 50 Major Enterprises Now Live and Scaling](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/04/24/3067355/0/en/Rezolve-Ai-Smashes-Past-50-Billion-in-GMV-in-Explosive-start-to-2025-Over-50-Major-Enterprises-Now-Live-and-Scaling.html) \- RZLV RZLVW Rezolve says they are going from " revenue for 2024 was immaterial" to "Rezolve expects to achieve its $100 million estimated ARR target by year-end". So large growth this year. RZLV up 13% to $1.70, 2 million traded. Warrants up 80% to 44 cents, under 100k traded though.

lic2smart

Not monthly but you could get VYM and VYMI for dividends, and monthly there are some reits like ARR armour residential and a mexican reit called FMTY14.

salty0waldo

I would like to see a little bit more retracement on CRWD. Great company in a growing market with a best-in-class EDR product. But man it trades at crazy P/S regardless of its ARR. S is also in EDR and trades at a bit of 'cheaper' valuation. Haven't seen their product in use but from what I have research in the cybersecurity space it is 2nd to Falcon.

Eft_Reap3r

But the US has its pants down now and is getting spanked. They have no rare earths and need a LOT. There is no way that Trump isn’t going to push through mining and refinement of these to establish a domestic supply chain. He will call it a national emergency and get the army to build it for all I know. I just know it’s going to happen. ARR.AX is where I’ve placed my bet. Deposit in Wyoming.

Knosh

DOGE abruptly cancelled $5.1bn in federal contracts with them. So overnight they just lost billions in ARR.

dvdmovie1

There are stocks doing well, but they're just not the stocks that have done well for the last dozen years. Look at the garbage names, RSG up 20% YTD. MCK up 20%. CME/CBOE/ICE up YTD as volatility beneficiaries. I've said lately on here - not going to be a popular opinion - it feels like we're heading into (if not already in) an environment where what did well post dot com (2002-2007) might be the place to be for the foreseeable future unless something materially changes. You saw the dollar index go from around 120 to 70 in 2002-2008 post dot com as a lot of the money that went into the US during the late 1990's reversed after the dot com bust. Now we're getting into a situation where the AI theme is faltering and on top of that, the tariff situation is sending money elsewhere. The dollar index has gone from 110 to 99 YTD and I think that's creating forced selling by foreign investors who have the double whammy of a tanking index and a tanking dollar. The tariff situation is terrible, but even before that there was commentary from Bessent about the economy needing a detox (Summer of 2024, he thought the economy was in more precarious shape then people realized) and then recently, his "Mag 7 problem" comment. Not saying I share these views, but it does feel like the administration even before tariffs felt that - for some reason - it needed to pre-emptively pop what it viewed as a bubble. That started a little bit before tariffs, but the tariff situation imo massively accelerated it in a way that was disorderly. People unwound a lot of US assets in the years post dot com, but in an orderly way. I think that there is certainly something to AI, but IMO it has become clear that it is not yet translating to results for a lot of companies. I often use the Adobe example, with them calling out $125M in AI-related ARR last quarter - that's not really moving the needle and even if that doubled, it's still not. We had a period where it felt like every week there was some new massive data center investment announcement that was bigger than the previous one. When did that stop? The giant Stargate announcement in January, which was the top. San Fran Fed, 2003: "From mid-1995 to its peak in early 2002, the trade-weighted nominal dollar appreciated by nearly 40% against a basket of major currencies. Since then, the dollar has retraced more than half of the earlier gains. A falling dollar suggests that foreign investors are unwinding some of their dollar-denominated portfolio holdings in order to seek higher returns elsewhere. While a weaker dollar helps stimulate U.S. exports, it can hurt growth in foreign countries that sell goods to the U.S. If a rapid, disorderly depreciation of the dollar were to occur, foreign investors would likely demand higher risk premiums for holding dollar-denominated assets. This development, in turn, could lead to lower stock prices and higher bond yields, thereby slowing the growth of domestic demand." (https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2003/06/growth-in-the-post-bubble-economy/)

DolanDoleac2020

Whew, tough question - and not a finance / tax guy nor can I speak to Tesla bc only considering ARR businesses. Potential impact: Most software vendors have big footprints in at least one of Japan, Europe or South America. Lots of hardware / unique product features go into supporting those markets, but also not a lot of domestic tech equivalents to switch over to. I bet current clients eat the addtl cost, relationships sour and spawn new competition, and tech lowers future forecasts as it becomes more difficult for Prod to justify future investment. Those roadmap decisions probably impact a couple years of growth.

COUser93

I’ve been buying the bottom, they are projecting to grow 5-6x this year and expecting to hit $200 million ARR this month. Unlike their competitors they are not sitting on a ton of debt. They are expected to exceed $50/share by end of year

EnragedMoose

Nah, they're close to 700 ARR I'd wager. They think they can be at 1B this year though. They were at 500 last year.

tenderooskies

you’re right - $500M ARR…even steeper

geneman7

I was hoping to see signs of revenue and ARR growth acceleration this earnings call, which I didn't see. Overall, the company appears well run. Expenses in control, high gross margins, strong product focus. Their balance sheet is still rock solid. They're on the verge of profitability. Large customers are increasing in number, increasing their subscription spending and are the main source of revenue growth. If large companies use and increase spend on UiPath, it must mean they are seeing value in the software. It seems possible, some day, that these large customers will scale enough that they can drive revenue growth acceleration. The only thing they need for stock appreciation is signs of revenue acceleration. The tricky thing is that at any future earnings, if PATH shows signs of earnings reacceleration. This stock is off to the races. I'm optimistic about the business, but think I may have been wrong about the timeframe. I have reduced my position from 16,868 > 4698 shares. At this time, I think there are faster horses (RDDT and HOOD). I have allocated there. If I see signs of life in PATH revenue growth, I would come back in a heartbeat.

killadaze

Yes. I’m betting on a massive re rating. 39 percent ARR, cash flow positive, lots of stock options differed, expenses down, 600million in cash, and taking market share from CRWD.

killadaze

2000 shares of S at an average of 19. This is going to get a serious re rating with their ARR. No brainer.

ASpicySpicyMeatball

I sold when it reached ~10x ARR and made a killing so I am out of the equity and am no longer actively tracking it. I have it on a watch list and will consider buying back if the market tanks.

Decent-Discussion-47

oh got it, i was confused by Crowdstrike's framing of the current ARR as being quarterly. so i thought they were framing it as net new \*right now\* is great, but technically these other customers they lost this year were accounted for at the time they told Crowdstrike they weren't reupping. Like if Delta told them to get fucked months ago, they weren't double counted this quarter's ARR churn i guess it makes sense if crowdstrike actually didn't account for that churn until this quarter though to be honest, yikes, I'm not expecting ARR to accelerate again. This company is hyper fucked. We don't know when this 'churn' is going to play out if they're essentially accounting for it whenever the account happens to end

Beautiful-Pin9378

What do you mean? ARR is the leading subscription revenue indicator. Net-new ARR includes both the lost and gained ARR. The fact that ARR did not grow more in the last 2 quarters is exactly because of the incident (i.e. customers cancelling and discounts offered). We should expect ARR to slowly accelerate again once the effect of the incident has faded i.e. low 20ies annual ARR growth will be the low-point of growth.

Cobra25k

Crowdstrike earnings: Sales $1.06B vs Est. $1.04B • EPS $1.03 vs Est. $0.86 • FCF $240M vs Est. $226M • ARR $4.24B vs Est. $4.21B Q1 Guidance • Sales $1.1B vs Est. $1.1B • EPS $0.65 vs Est. $0.96 FY26 Guidance • Sales $4.77B vs Est. $4.76B • EPS $3.40 vs Est. $4.43

projix

That 46 was short lived with the market dump today. I bought a few 44C 0dte's at $0.40 and sold them for $1.20 8 minutes later today on the first dump. https://preview.redd.it/5y770hvwtjke1.png?width=958&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed5179a066281fd7a58d0e39829ccc7abc8ecf11 But longer term - they said that they will have 244mm ARR in March. This is 7 times as much as the entire last quarter combined. That alone is enough for me to hold.

thelastsubject123

kinda weird that OP doesn't know anything about the company 1) They shifted gears to provide GPUs as a service- training + inference, still building sales team to expand customer base 2) Their software layer is their differentiator vs other competitors, as well as custom hardware to decrease GPU costs by 20-25% as outlined by their investor presentation 3) No timeline on positive FCF/inflection point, main goal is to accelerate capex spend on data center build outs, cash should be more than enough at current burn rate Rev is projected to increase by about 400-600% YoY to 500-700M, on an annualized run rate, is expected to hit 750-1B ARR (calculated by annualizing every sales contract so if Dec 2025, they land a 10M contract that is expected to last 2 years, it would count as 10M revenue for 2025 but convert to 120M ARR when reported as a KPI)

Fountainheadusa

**02/20/2025** **Nebius (NBIS) Update - Q4-2024 Earnings - Stock drops 15% from $45 to $39.** **Had sold 50% (40% at $46, and 10% Stop loss triggered at $45), keeping the rest, may buy back if it goes below $35, but given the March ARR of $200Mn and confirmation of projected ARR of $750Mn to $1Bn, it seems unlikely.** **Negatives** December ARR  December 2024 ARR for Nebius was $90 million, below previous guidance. "This was primarily due to longer lead times for customer acquisition, while the Company was in the process of building out its sales and marketing teams and also migrating customers over to its new AIcloud platform." Q4 Sales of $37.9, and Full Year Sales of $117.5 below consensus estimates of $58 and $138Mn respectively. **Positives** "Based on contracts already in place, March ARR will be at least $220 million, and we have additional potential deals in the pipeline." From the CEO's prepared remarks: "Given this momentum, as well as the anticipated impact of additional data center capacity and Blackwell GPUs coming on-stream later this year, I am pleased to confirm that our projected December 2025 ARR of $750 million to $1 billion is well within reach.”

creemeeseason

NBIS earnings: 🔹Q4 2024 Revenue: $37.9 million, 466% year-over-year growth. 🔹Full-Year 2024 Revenue: $117.5 million, a 462% annual increase. 🔹Core AI Infrastructure Business Growth: Grew 602% YoY, accounting for over half of the company’s total revenue. 🔹Annualized Run Rate Revenue (ARR): $90 million in December 2024, expected to reach $220 million by March 2025 based on existing contracts. 🔹Net Loss from Continuing Operations: $136.6 million in Q4, up from $88.3 million 🔹Capital Expenditures: $417.6 million in Q4 and $808.1 million for FY 2024, reflecting AI infrastructure expansion. Stock is gyrating like Shakira pre market.

_hiddenscout

$TOST * First year of GAAP profitability with full year net income of $19 million * Record 28,000 net location additions in 2024 * 34% ARR growth to $1.6 billion * Q4 net income improved from -$36M to $33M year-over-year * Full year Adjusted EBITDA increased from $61M to $373M * Free Cash Flow grew from $93M to $306M in 2024 * GPV growth slowed to 25% YoY compared to location growth of 26% * Projected 2025 gross profit growth of 23-25% shows deceleration from 34% in 2024 Looking ahead to 2025, Toast's guidance of 23-25% growth in subscription services and fintech solutions gross profit, coupled with projected Adjusted EBITDA of $510-530 million, suggests continued profitable scaling. The company's penetration of high-end restaurants, serving over half of U.S. Michelin-rated establishments, positions it well for premium market expansion while maintaining its core market strength [https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TOST/toast-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-xqizrdl3rsay.html](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TOST/toast-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-xqizrdl3rsay.html)

Omnetfh

All of the GPUs are rented instantly, there is insane demand, but they still will not act as a rent-GPU company. Furthermore, Blackwells are way more cost efficient to rent as AI cloud company if there is demand than the older models. They will have a PaaS model, having higher margins. NBIS is going deep into true AI, not some rent-GPU type company. 0,75-1b 2025 ARR forecast will be revised this earnings for higher numbers. As you saw, lately the stock moves no matter what, institutional money is starting to flow in and $100 EOY is gonna be the worst scenario literally. Big boys do not think this is overvalued at all and they are gonna buy shit out of this after earnings. If they execute well they are gonna be worth closer to 150-200$ EOY. Arkady also mentioned that they will issue fully audited report explaining they have no ties to Russia anymore.

Millionaire2025_

I am balls deep in NBIS. ChatGPT largely agrees with OP’s DD. Concerns me that we’re already priced for base case The due diligence (DD) you’ve shared on Nebius Group (NBIS) presents a compelling narrative, blending verified facts with the author’s interpretations and projections. Let’s dissect the factual claims first, followed by an analysis of the opinions and conclusions drawn. Factual Claims Verification: 1. Formation and Background: • Claim: Nebius Group consists of ex-Yandex executives who restructured the company, establishing Nebius in Amsterdam. • Verification: Accurate. Nebius was formed after Yandex’s international assets were separated due to geopolitical tensions, with Arkady Volozh leading the new entity headquartered in Amsterdam.  2. Market Position and Competition: • Claim: The AI cloud market is dominated by AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, comprising approximately 70% of the market share. • Verification: This aligns with industry analyses, which consistently report that these three giants hold a significant majority of the global cloud infrastructure market. 3. Financial Metrics and Investments: • Claim: Nebius has $2 billion in cash reserves. • Verification: Partially accurate. Recent reports indicate that Nebius has over $3 billion in cash, bolstered by a $700 million private placement involving investors like NVIDIA and Accel.  • Claim: NVIDIA has invested in Nebius. • Verification: Confirmed. NVIDIA participated in Nebius’s $700 million funding round, acquiring a stake in the company.  • Claim: Nebius plans to invest over $1 billion in AI infrastructure in Europe by mid-2025. • Verification: Accurate. Nebius has announced intentions to allocate more than $1 billion towards expanding its AI infrastructure across Europe within the specified timeframe.  4. Revenue Projections: • Claim: Nebius aims for annual recurring revenue between $500 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025. • Verification: Accurate. The company has projected ARR in this range, reflecting its growth ambitions.  Analysis of Opinions and Projections: 1. Competitive Landscape: • Opinion: The DD emphasizes the formidable challenge Nebius faces against established giants like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, highlighting their vast resources and entrenched market positions. • Analysis: This perspective is valid. Entering a market dominated by such players requires not only significant capital but also a unique value proposition to attract clients away from established services. 2. Potential Advantages for Nebius: • Opinion: Nebius’s focus on being an “AI-native cloud” and its strategic positioning in Europe could offer a competitive edge, especially with potential cost advantages and regional data sovereignty considerations. • Analysis: Positioning as an AI-specialized cloud provider can differentiate Nebius in a crowded market. Additionally, Europe’s stringent data regulations might favor regional players, providing Nebius with opportunities to cater to local businesses seeking compliant AI solutions. 3. Risks and Challenges: • Opinion: The DD outlines several risks, including capital intensity, reliance on NVIDIA, execution challenges, and geopolitical factors related to its Russian origins. • Analysis: These are legitimate concerns. The cloud infrastructure industry demands substantial ongoing investment. Dependence on a single hardware supplier like NVIDIA can pose supply chain risks. Effective execution is critical to scaling operations, and lingering geopolitical associations might influence client perceptions and regulatory environments. 4. Valuation Concerns: • Opinion: At a share price of $45+, the DD suggests that Nebius is priced as if it’s already achieving its base-case projections, implying limited upside relative to the risks. • Analysis: Valuation is a critical consideration. Investors must weigh the company’s growth prospects against its current market capitalization, assessing whether the potential rewards justify the inherent risks of investing in an emerging player within a capital-intensive industry. Conclusion: The DD provides a well-rounded analysis of Nebius Group, blending factual data with thoughtful insights into the company’s potential trajectory. While Nebius exhibits promising attributes, such as strategic investments and a focus on AI infrastructure, it operates in a highly competitive and resource-demanding sector. Prospective investors should conduct thorough due diligence, considering both the opportunities and the substantial risks associated with Nebius’s ambitious growth plans.

No_Chemist_6978

How big of their total ARR is their cloud unit?

ml-7

The major Japanese automaker that Luminar brought on in Q3 is likely Toyota. These LiDAR units cost in the neighborhood of $500-1000 each. Getting to $100M annual revenue only requires 100k-200k units sold per year -- that's only 100k-200k vehicles at most. Mercedes and Volvo are also confirmed partners. Toyota sells 2.3M vehicles a year Mercedes sells 2M vehicles a year Volvo sells 700k vehicles a year Nissan sells 3.4M vehicles a year Honda sells 4M vehicles a year Don't forget Tesla is a Luminar customer as well and currently sells about 2M vehicles a year In total that is 14.4 million vehicles per year sold by OEMs that have official contracts or some sort of partnership with Luminar. Luminar only needs to capture 100k-200k vehicles of 14.4 million which is only 0.7% to get to the $100M ARR mark. At $100M ARR, even if you use a very low valuation multiple of let's say 10, this would be a $1B market cap company. $1B means the share price would be at least $30 which funnily enough is the average analyst target for the stock, I wonder why. So I think the hedge funds have done their research. If they get on more than 0.7% of all vehicles sold by OEMs that they work with or if the real valuation multiple is higher than 10 or if they sign on even more OEMs then the share price is only 🚀🚀🚀 from there. Literally so many avenues for catalysts to make an impact

_hiddenscout

$PANW Reports Q2 adjusted EPS 81c, consensus 78c Reports Q2 revenue $2.3B, consensus $2.24B. "In Q2, our strong business performance was fueled by customers adopting technology driven by the imperative of AI, including cloud investment and infrastructure modernization," said Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. "Our growth across regions and demand for our platforms demonstrate our customers' confidence in our approach. It reaffirms our faith in our 2030 plans and our $15 billion NGS ARR goal."

sp3ndime

It's a good speculative AI infrastructure play, but you haven't even done surface level analysis. ARR is projected to be 750-1B. You're using Yandex numbers which are completely irrelevant

italophile

What model? It's all vaporware at this point. Meanwhile, Waymo will exit 2025 with $1B ARR.

vcbcdt

Ummm no, comparing a sub 5BN ARR name to cloud is inappropriate bc the enormity of #s are way off (Cloud ARR vs PLTR ARR) With that said, best to compare CRWD or other names in the yearly ARR range.

SnooHobbies7273

Holding 10k shares at 0.81 average. Pre-empting the (understandable) concerns and scepticism that will likely be highlighted here. It is easy to take a quick look and immediately think the company’s finances and outlook are in a bad place - high debt & revenue decline. And this is undeniable. But as with any investment, taking 5 minutes to skim over headline numbers isn't going to tell you the whole story. Firstly, the new CEO was only appointed in January 2024 - you don't turn a business around overnight. If the whole market thought this was a great opportunity it wouldn't be the price it is. The board has been very transparent about the challenges, and explained their transition plan at length during the last few earnings calls. The ARR churn is primarily driven from legacy customers acquired under the old leadership team, who decided not to renew (likely due to having a poor experience as a result of the old leadership mismanaging the business and the old pricing model not being straightforward and competitive). The new leadership team have already launched a new pricing model in mid-2024, and they have demonstrated strong customer acquisition over the last few quarters (see the metrics below for further details). The problem is that the renewal cycle hasn't ended yet, so it will take another 2 quarters for the new customer acquisitions to offset the cancellations. ARR is expected to be back into a positive trend by the second half of 2025, as per the earnings guidance (summary below). I want to be clear: I'm not denying the debt situation or the risk involved with this, but the debt has been negotiated to allow time for a turnaround. Currently, the company is maintaining sufficient cash flow, gradually improving margins, and as mentioned above, acquiring new customers at a very good rate (metrics in earnings summary below). Summary of the last earnings: During the third quarter 2024 earnings call for LivePerson, significant metrics were shared reflecting the company's performance and strategic direction. Revenue for Q3 was reported at $74.2 million, exceeding the high end of the guidance range due to successful retention efforts. Adjusted EBITDA also surpassed expectations at $7.3 million. The company achieved a 14% sequential increase in clients utilizing generative AI capabilities and a 40% sequential rise in conversations using this technology. LivePerson signed 44 deals, including 9 new logos and 35 expansions and renewals, marking a 19% increase in total deals and a 22% rise in total deal value compared to the previous quarter. Looking forward, the company anticipates double-digit bookings growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with expectations for new bookings to exceed churn in the second half of 2025, signaling a projected return to positive net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2025.

kntclrk

Yeah the dilution sucks, but thats always a disadvantage of a penny stock. They did manage to bring down their debt with those offerings though. They were paying 2M a year in interest expenses, will be much less in 2025. I believe their expansion in 2025 will be huge, got lots of new contracts (around 20 i believe?) in the last few months. Although no contract values were mentioned, these should be at least 10M yearly ARR.

Free_Sympathy2016

Unbelievable. You think ARR means anything to the stock price, when they will just dilute it when they run out of cash this year? I believe payroll for a year is around 1B. And that isn't taking into consideration stock bonuses paid on payroll, bonuses for managers and CEO CFO COO amounting to tens of millions. Market cap may go up, but common stock price will go down

earthycigar

They have more than 2b in cash… ARR of 750m to 1b this year.

Master_of_Krat

“We delivered record subscription revenue and ARR in the third quarter, making it our eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. Cash flow was at a record high, and Adjusted EBITDA was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter and at its highest level since the second quarter of 2020, fueled by a record gross margin. We also posted a sequential and year-over-year increase in new bookings for the second consecutive quarter, continued year-over-year improvement in gross retention, and record RPO. In light of these results, we are once again increasing our revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year and are expecting to post positive cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and for the full year, which would translate to over a $46 million improvement in cash flow from operations in 2024 as compared to the same period only two years ago,” said Ron Yekutiel, Kaltura Co-founder, Chairman, President and CEO.

paradigm_shift_0K

The NAV erosion is misunderstood and is not the point. I describe it as buying a truck to deliver goods for your business to make money. Over time the truck loses value and depreciates, but as long as it can keep delivering goods your business keeps making money and over time that income more than pays for the truck. Over time the truck will lose most of its value but may still bring in income. In my view I don't care that the ETF NAV (truck) is losing value as long as the income keeps coming in and over time makes more than the cost of the ETF (truck). The risk is the truck blowing up (the ETF not paying out) and no longer bringing in the income before the ETF is paid for. Hope that made some kind of sense. ;-) Not recommendations, but I'm dding to T, F, ARR, VZ, STWD and JEPQ which are better quality in my view.

Expensive_Layer_4138

Yep, keep it on your radar. They have over $500mm of ARR, 25% ARR growth, work with 35 of the Fortune 100, over 3,700 customers, and have a global presence.

chatrep

That is half of it. The other half is selling a put. Either entering a position initially or if your CC’s were exercised. The key is to choose strikes at a level you feel comfortable with. If you cannot stand the idea of ever having shares called, this isn’t good for you. I sort of view these as Limit Buy Order (selling put) and Limit Sell Orders (selling call). Example when you do not own shares. Let’s say ABC is trading at $100 and you want to enter. You can sell a cash secured put at say $95 and collect a premium of $7. If stock ends above, you keep your $7 and just repeat. If the stock dropped to $90, you still have to pay $95. But remember you got a $7 premium so you still gained $2. Let’s say it dropped to $80, you still have to pay $95 (but net is $88 with your premium). This is the risk. But if you liked the stock and were going to buy it at $100 anyway, you would be down $20 instead if just $8. That is first half of wheel strategy. Selling a Put to get shares. Then when you own shares, you sell calls. For high volatility stocks, I might do this weekly and go pretty far out in strike price. Maybe a delta of .1. Not likely to close above this strike price level. BUT if it does, you have to be content with the massive gain and not sit there and regret getting called. Then just repeat with selling puts. I do this weekly with 3 stocks: PLTR, RKLB, MSTR. All are riskier high volatility stocks that I really want to hold for 10 years and believe they will out-perform. I fill out my spreadsheet to get my strike prices for Monday: (this is based on my personal risk tolerance and objectives and each person varies. Just sharing as a real example) Sell calls 12/20 exp (prefer up days) PLTR $90 .12 delta $0.54 premium 37% APR MSTR $539 .11 delta $4.23 premium 53% APR RKLB $31 .09 delta $0.18 premium 38% APR Sell puts 12/20 exp (prefer down days) PLTR $75 .40 delta $1.30 premium 89% ARR MSTR $395 .38 delta $15.93 premium 202% return RKLB $23.50 .38 delta $0.65 premium 138% Selling puts is pretty lucrative and you may never get the shares and chase upwards. But premiums are quite high. Take MSTR, i could be more aggressive and use $400 or even $405. The premium for $405 is $20.95. But I don’t mind not getting them as I can then just repeat next week. The APR above is over 200% for this one. If I never got the shares, I would have tripled my investment!

chatrep

With software companies, valuation has a multiplier in ARR. you might typically find 10-15. For higher growth companies that have low churn and high earnings, that multiplier is even greater. More like 20x. So $30m ARR is more like $600M valuation! I have quite a bit if experience in enterprise SaaS orgs and million dollar+ contracts are not that common. Yet, PLTR has a strong cadence of announcing them.

Necessary_Wishbone81

nope. its through selling the vol to arbitrage traders and buying btc. when they sell bonds at a 80% spread they capture 80% of that spread in permeant capital gained through the purchase of btc for their shareholders. essentially raising billions and investing it in an asset providing historically 30% ARR that amount of accretion is insane value.

Necessary_Wishbone81

i agree the business model will still need more testing but they survived in 2021 with the crash and FTX scandal. Saylor even bought more when it dropped. its a risky play and leveraged products are even to risky for me. but the end game with MSTR is that its aiming to securitize BTC (best performing asset class). BTC and MSTR will always be more volatile then the S&P but as btc increases in value the S&P will adopt BTC and their volatility will become closer aligned. currently MSTR can arbitrage the difference in vol for both equity and bond markets, thats why they are getting billions with no interest. the vol in the crypto markets will always be high due to their structure. crypto markets run 24/7, no circuit breakers, no one government can stop it, people can panic sell or buy on a Saturday night all of this creates uncertainty and vol. compared to the traditional markets its much more volatile and MSTR is essentially stripping the vol and provides investment grade financial instruments to traditional markets. when they sell bonds at a 80% spread they capture 80% of that spread in permeant capital gained through the purchase of btc for their shareholders. essentially raising billions and investing it in an asset providing historically 30% ARR that amount of accretion is insane value. they can continue to double the offerings until they captured lets say a 1% value of the bond market, and with this leverage they will accumulate more btc

skuxy18

If we conservatively price Gamestops Q4 results 10% less than last years, they are still above $4.2b ARR. Now with an additional $4.6b debt-free cash on hand. Not to mention the ARR is profitable (albeit marginally). You think those multiples are nonsensical for a $10b valuation? Seems pretty conservative to me.

greygray

I also worked at Google and you’re wrong. Google and Meta are actually some of the only companies that have the clearest path to monetize AI in the near term because they’ve ALREADY embedded AI models into their ads businesses. And the fact that you can’t think of any other AI scaled businesses just tells me how fucking stupid you are. What the fuck do you call OpenAI’s 4o and 1o models those are platform businesses that companies are already building unicorn-valued companies on top of. They’re also already pulling in billions of ARR in subscriptions and they’ve barely monetized to the extent they could. I’m not saying AI will take over everything but you’re a fucking dumbass and Google should pip your ass for being so dumb.

DifficultyDismal1967

SaaS don’t trade on EBITDA but more on ARR

Kobe7477

Totally agree, which is why when a quality of earning is performed during due diligence by 3rd party, advisors will typically be asked to include a capex analysis (recurring vs growth capex) in their scope of work. Although interest expense may be important to understand the current state of the capital structure, EBITDA margin is still an infinitely better tool to actually understand the operating margins of the business. There's a reason why every single PE analyst that's probably much smarter than me will look so closely at adjusted EBITDA. (Unless it's a SaaS, then ARR may be more important).

lo-fer

While traditional providers like AWS or Azure dominate the general cloud space, Nebius focuses on AI-specific infrastructure, a booming market growing at 35% CAGR. Their supercomputer in Finland (16th most powerful globally) and GPU clusters are tailored for AI workloads, offering performance and cost advantages over general-purpose providers. Nebius also benefits from being a European company, appealing to businesses and governments seeking alternatives to U.S. dominance (think GDPR compliance). Plus, they’re expanding into the U.S. and are backed by $2B cash and zero debt, ensuring they can scale effectively and secure chips. At just 5–10x EV/Sales, Nebius is undervalued compared to traditional players, making it a great early-stage investment in the AI revolution. They’re targeting $500M–$1B ARR by 2025, with diversified businesses (e.g., autonomous vehicles, EdTech) adding extra growth potential.

Suspicious-Change251

The company’s current business doesn’t have anything to do with Yandex (aside from legacy shareholders and employees) so looking at the old chart is meaningless. No idea where it shld be valued, but they have currently 3 bn in cash, a forecasted .75-1bn ARR for 2025 and finally and a CEO with a proven track record. Imagine Jack Ma would leave China, double the CCP and set up a company, sort of. And that’s probably one of the problems here, legacy shareholders are still selling their pre war stock and new institutional ones are hard to get, as how would you sell to you investment committee that you are investing in a company run by a guy who was on the EU sanctions list( he was removed). Hence the attractive valuations you currently see. But I think with NVDA and Accel onboard most of the concerns should dissipate.

Wayne93

seeing a bit of it I thought earnings looked good but maybe I am wrong ... The overall sentiment of the earnings release from SentinelOne appears **positive**, with key highlights suggesting a strong financial performance and strategic progress. Here's why: # Positive Indicators: 1. **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue increased by 28% year-over-year, reaching $210.6 million, which aligns with their positive topline growth commentary. 2. **ARR Growth**: Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) grew 29%, indicating continued strong demand for their subscription-based business. 3. **Improved Margins**: * Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 80%, and GAAP gross margin improved to 75%. * Non-GAAP operating margin improved significantly, from (11)% to (5)%. 4. **Free Cash Flow Milestone**: For the first time, SentinelOne achieved positive free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis, an important step toward sustained profitability. 5. **Increased Guidance**: They raised their full-year revenue growth outlook to 32%, reflecting confidence in their business momentum. # Mixed or Negative Aspects: * **Net Loss**: SentinelOne still reported a GAAP net loss of $78.4 million for Q3, although this was an improvement from prior periods. * **GAAP Operating Margin**: While improving, it remained negative at (42)%. * **Continued Operating Losses**: Despite progress, they remain unprofitable on a GAAP basis. # Management Commentary: Both the CEO and CFO highlighted strong execution, new business acceleration, and product adoption. The tone suggests optimism and confidence in their positioning within the cybersecurity market. # Conclusion: While SentinelOne remains unprofitable, the growth in revenue, ARR, improved margins, positive free cash flow milestone, and raised guidance signal **positive sentiment overall**.