ARR

TherealCarbunc

I know about both, they're set to have 8-12B projected ARR by end of 2027 on my conservative metrics. Look into dollars returned per $1 spent on GPUs

Still_Theory179

Hey man I'm keen to chat about it? You're the one getting emotional lol. The 100B is ARR, you seem quote out of touch with adoption and enterprise spend of this tech. 

Still_Theory179

Netflix just reported they used Aai in over 200 titles? Everything IT based engineer is using it.  There is a reason Anthropic is the fastest growing unicorn in history, going from 10B to 65B ARR in 8 months. They would have grown a lot faster if not so hamstrung by compute.  Enterprise is paying hand of fist for this technology, that is undeniable. 

Dangerous_Rip5083

So pedantic; if he had said "this AI industry" instead of "the AI industry," which is obviously what he meant, you wouldn't have made that comment. He's still wrong tho "100b ARR"

twist_games

the AI industry isn't even 4 years old, and companies like anthropic and open AI will hit a ARR of 100 billion this year. With unprecedented growth we should expect unprecedented Financials.

burtritto

Define ARR for me. Find out how they calculate it, then tell me if that is a good way to evaluate a company.

growmysmallportfolio

After seeing them do 65b on ARR I could justify 1T but not 2Trillion. So a 50% drop is likely in my book

PlandomeProwler

This is what AI says in case anyone is interested **IREN (Iris Energy / IREN Limited) is a high-risk, high-reward speculative play on the AI data center/neocloud buildout at the current price around $42 (as of late August 2026).** It is not a “safe” or conservative investment. Analyst consensus is generally Buy with average 12-month targets near $80 (implying substantial upside), but the stock is extremely volatile (beta ~4+), has high short interest (~27–32% of float/outstanding), and trades at elevated multiples on current (still-transitioning) earnings and sales. ### Quick Snapshot - **Price context**: Recently ~$41–42, well off the 52-week high near $77 and up strongly over 1 year, but down meaningfully from peaks amid dilution fears and execution scrutiny. Market cap ~$15B. - **Business**: Former Bitcoin miner pivoting hard to vertically integrated AI cloud (renewable-powered data centers + GPUs). Still has residual mining exposure that is being wound down/converted. Secured power portfolio is a key asset (~5 GW cited in updates). - **Key contracts**: Microsoft 5-year ~$9.7B cloud services deal (Horizon liquid-cooled deployments at Childress, TX); NVIDIA ~$3.4B; plus ~$2.8B additional multi-year AI developer contracts. Year-end 2026 ARR target raised to >$4B, with ~85% contracted; significant customer prepayments help fund GPUs. - **Recent milestone**: Horizon 1 (first 50 MW liquid-cooled for Microsoft) delivered and accepted; earned NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status. Horizons 2–4 targeted later in 2026 (part of 200 MW total for that Microsoft tranche). Overall 2026 target ~480 MW AI cloud capacity / ~150k GPUs. ### Is It a “Good” Investment at Current Levels? It depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon: **Bull case (why it can work from here)** - Visible contracted demand and prepayments reduce pure demand risk relative to earlier pure-play miners. Power + land + construction capability is a real scarcity moat in the AI infrastructure race. - Execution progress (Horizon 1 acceptance, Mirantis acquisition for software/orchestration layer, capacity ramp targets) supports the re-rating story from miner to AI infrastructure. Analysts and some independent research see substantial upside if the ARR ladder converts on schedule toward multi-billion run-rates into 2027–28. - High short interest can amplify upside on positive catalysts (short squeeze potential, though days-to-cover is low given volume). **Bear/risk case (why it can hurt)** - **Execution risk is elevated**: Scaling complex liquid-cooled GPU deployments, power interconnects, and operations at this pace with a still-relatively lean organization is non-trivial. Delays on Horizons 2–4, other sites, or GPU supply/commissioning would push ARR recognition and pressure the stock. - **Dilution and capital intensity**: Large ATM equity capacity, convertibles, RSUs (including significant co-CEO grants), and potential further equity needs for the full multi-GW pipeline. Share count has already risen sharply; further issuance is a real overhang even if it funds growth assets. Customer prepayments + GPU financing have helped recently, but the full buildout is capital-hungry. - **Transition drag**: Bitcoin mining revenue is declining as capacity converts; AI revenue is ramping but still a smaller portion in recent quarters. Near-term profitability/EPS can look messy. High valuation on trailing metrics leaves little room for disappointment. - **Other risks**: Customer concentration (Microsoft/NVIDIA heavy), GPU supply or cost inflation, power/regulatory issues, high volatility, and broader AI infrastructure competition or sentiment shifts. Short interest reflects skepticism on the path from contracts to per-share value. At ~$42, the market is pricing in meaningful success on the AI pivot but also skepticism about dilution, timing, and execution. It is not “cheap” on current fundamentals; the bull case requires the contracted ARR to convert into durable high-margin revenue without excessive further dilution. Position sizing should be small relative to a diversified portfolio given the binary-ish outcomes and beta. ### Catalysts Besides Earnings **Positive / helpful (near-to-medium term)** - Further Horizon deliveries/acceptances (2–4 targeted later in 2026) and progress updates on Childress, Prince George, Mackenzie, etc. - Additional contract announcements, capacity under contract increases, or ARR guidance raises. - GPU deployment/commissioning milestones, NVIDIA-related updates, or software/platform progress post-Mirantis. - Broader AI infrastructure sentiment, power/scarcity narratives, or Bitcoin price strength (residual mining exposure). - Any evidence of efficient capital use or reduced dilution needs. **Negative / hurtful** - Construction, power, cooling, networking, or acceptance delays. - Further large equity raises or dilutive financing without clear high-ROI deployment. - Weaker-than-expected AI revenue mix, higher costs, or guidance that pushes the ramp later. - Negative industry developments (GPU shortages, hyperscaler spending pauses, competitive losses, regulatory/power issues). - Short-driven volatility or broader market risk-off (especially for high-beta names). **Earnings note**: FY2026 results (year ended June 30) are scheduled for August 27, 2026 (after close), with a conference call. This will provide the latest on revenue mix (AI vs. mining), cash position, RPO/ARR visibility, capacity progress, and updated outlook—highly relevant given the transition. **Bottom line**: IREN offers asymmetric upside if the company executes the contracted AI ramp cleanly and converts power/capacity into high-visibility recurring revenue, which is why many analysts remain constructive with targets well above current levels. However, the combination of execution risk, dilution overhang, residual mining drag, high valuation, and elevated short interest makes it unsuitable as a core holding for most investors. Treat it as a speculative satellite position sized for potential large drawdowns. This is not personalized advice—do your own due diligence, consider your risk tolerance, and monitor delivery milestones closely, as the thesis is now heavily execution-dependent.

Ok-Marionberry3162

That $7.8bn is for 3 months, so $31.2bn ARR. Still your overall premise is correct: it’s a long way to $100bn.

Beginning_Juice_4296

i'm on the road to greatness... 2025 ARR was 75%, 2026 YTD ARR is 40%.... STOP PLAYIN WITH ME

tobiasfunkgay

>The revenue isn’t there compared to the spending. Just look at the numbers. That's called capital investment, most of the spending is buying up all the worlds GPUs to increase capacity and allow even higher revenues in future. If I was building 10 new hotels how much revenue would I have in year 1 vs my spending? Does that by itself inherently mean they're a bad investment? I don't think you can look at a company that was making $1bn ARR last January and $70bn ARR 18 months later and say lack of demand is an issue, whatever other arguments there might be that's certainly not one.

Sunstorm84

ARR is a bullshit meaningless figure that can be easily manipulated before IPO. It’s just the revenue from the last 4 weeks multiplied by twelve. In this case, we see Anthropic’s figures temporarily showing a much higher value than normal, because of the temporary discount on inference from SpaceX.

Beginning_Juice_4296

i was lagging the market from January to January. now i'm beating the market. up 33% YTD... hoping to continue this streak. 75% ARR in 2025.

Ambitious_Snow840

You don't understand financials. Yes 65b is ARR, which means prospectively they will likely meet and exceed 65b revenue over the following 12 months. Plus growth. 11b is for one quarter revenue. Nothing short of in-freaking-credible. Fastest growing company ever, no one knows what you mean by 65b but 54b is debt. This debt has nothing to do with revenue, debt is recorded to the balance sheet, isnt recorded to an income statment in any way like revenue, their revenue is very much customers buying their services, look it up. Zero concentrations. Accounting 101. Yes there will be debt service or interest (likely only interest at this point since they are notes) but thats soon less than adjusted earnings. They are already generating an operating profit. Look it up. They have mag7 shareholders, so youre delusionsl to think the financials are unvetted. Asset bubble is speculative, yes. But its tough to value a growth company. Profits are irrelevant in this phase. Look at the mag7. Most were unprofitable for decade or more. Realistically given their current ARR and the all but guaranteed trillions in revenue expected by AI in 10 years, they are well positioned to be just fine. The problem with reddit is their are so wildly onesided and know nothing about financials. Nor do they see what AI is capable of. Real time video game creation, personal agents for family, custom movies on mainstream characters but your script, everything, is coming. very soon 3.5billion people will directly and indirectly contribute $1000 or more to AI compute via work licenses or personal licenses. Thats $3.5t per year in TAM. The sooner you folks connect what it can do , to its coming accessability, you will realize why we are in a space race of growth and many years from overbuilding of capacity.

brock_bowers

Selling off because of anthropic ARR nothingburger. The bubble continues next week prob

Few-Spot1905

source? numbers I found say 3.7b -> 13b -> 40b ARR so they're not growing the same rate as anthropi. but their growth also hasn't slowed like you suggest

mayorolivia

A company with a $100B ARR will IPO at $3T. We’ve never seen anything like this.

prana_fish

I find it hard to believe that whatever spooked the market today (bond yields, Anthropic ARR, just general fucking over FOMO memory buyers) that it's just gonna rip back tomorrow like nothing happened.

cuteman

Recent reports by whom? According to the secondary markets like Global Forge where private stocks are sold the price per share and value is still steady at existing levels, a little under a trillion in market value. Meanwhile didn't they just announce $200B ARR run rate? Who is reporting that?

Strange-Building

I don’t expect people to understand how accounting works, capex isn’t included into ARR as a standard accounting framework. This is true for everyone, you can read that and learn how to see ARR & cashflow statements

Imaginary-Pin580

You are right , this could be a losing bet, Nebius is extremely strong right now. 260-270 if basically fair valuation for its current ARR. it is not even expensive at those prices.

tobiasfunkgay

Yup, looking at PE ratios alone in a time when Anthropic have gone from 1bn to 70bn ARR in 18 months isn't a remotely rational take. Normally the biggest companies are well established long term ones that have fairly stable PE but now we're in a world where the most valuable highest earning companies on earth are also in the hypergrowth phase at the same time. People will look back on this as the most obvious slam dunk time theres ever been to invest in hindsight. We're literally in the next great industrial revolution and half of reddit thinks all it can do is generate some memes and 6 fingered images of humans.

SyntheticBear

SpaceX got roughly $2T marketcap with much lesser ARR than Anthropic. So Anthropic will just IPO at $2T valuvation. All the underwriting banks and their analyst will say "BUY" just like they did for SpaceX.

Olangotang

The secret is that the training costs is where most of the money is spent, and those aren't shown on ARR.

Janneq216

They don't even know what ARR is or why they use it, and what it's hiding (like the discount from xai). These people run on pure copium and 0 research

CBFball

Because they’ve grown from being a $15B ARR company to $70B in 3 months? They’ve changed and grown significantly and it’s been profitable? Are you this obtuse?

CBFball

Link above shows they went from around 500M in Q2 2025 in ARR to $11.5B in Q2 2026. I think that’s a good enough citation but maybe I’m expecting too much

1098duc_w_the_termi

Mini SaaSpocalypse today on the reported Anthropic ARR numbers. Dip will be bought sooner given the compression of trends and cycles after they’ve already happened once before

interesting_vast-

$200Bn ARR\* not revenue, thats how they get you ! to be clear they have not made $47B in revenue, the industry has adopted this trickery of using ARR instead of revenue to paint a better picture but it is incredibly misleading. for context the real (unaudited) revenue for Q2 2026 was \~11bn and \~4B in Q1, a far cry from the 47B figure reported.

SignificanceLate7002

HIVE looks good for tomorrow. Good ER released yesterday and contract news just came out. HIVE Reports Q1 2027 Revenue of $79.1 Million; Contracted GPU Cloud ARR(1) Reaches Approximately $110 million https://www.stocktitan.net/news/HIVE/hive-reports-q1-2027-revenue-of-79-1-million-contracted-gpu-cloud-7qqu30tbu6ww.html HIVE's BUZZ HPC Signs $350 Million AI Cloud Services Agreement with Investment-Grade Enterprise Customer https://www.stocktitan.net/news/HIVE/hive-s-buzz-hpc-signs-350-million-ai-cloud-services-agreement-with-4z2k7i6u0i6m.html

PaperHandsTheDip

Then why is anthropic growing at \~10x ARR per annum? That doesn't match what you've outlined. If anthropic hits 200b ARR by 2028, it's business and the AI model is viable. It's on track to break 100b ARR by EOY. It was at 9b at the start of this year, and 1b at the start of last year. It's going up because of exactly what you mentioned - everyone is starting to integrate AI into their workflow. Once people do, they don't go back.

dgellow

You’re wrong, Hacking_the_gibson is correct, revenue run rate is a completely meaningless and unreliable metric you use to make your business look more successful than it is. It doesn’t reflect real revenue. Any remotely decent VC hearing your ARR should follow up by asking you to stop bullshitting and share you’re actual revenue 

dgellow

ARR is a metric you use only if you don’t want to share the real number. It’s the most gamed metric of all 

PaperHandsTheDip

doesn't matter, still growing at insane rates. Fastest growing company in humanities history, on track to break $100b ARR by EOY. They started this year at \~$9b, and last year at... $1b

PaperHandsTheDip

\> The problem is there is really no revenue generation happening That's not at all true tho. There is revenue, and an insane amount. Anthropic is the fastest growing company in humanities history. They're on track to be over $100b ARR by EOY. If they hit $200b+ by 2028, the trade is viable / the numbers make sense. Rumors are they are currently adding \~$500m in ARR per DAY. That is batshit insane and is not cyclic. That's money entering the ecosystem from consumers / outside. They started this year with... \~$9b and last year with \~$1b. They are growing at \~10x per annum. I currently pay $600 / month for AI services and literally everyone I know that has started to integrate them is not going back. [https://x.com/rohanpaul\_ai/status/2029558464373272874](https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2029558464373272874)

LudicrousMoon

of course they will, of you don’t think so you are not paying attentilon. They added as much ARR in July alone as they did in q2. 100m ARR run rate is pretty much a lock already now and 200m in 2027 is just BAU now

OliveOk6966

Well the reported 40-something billion ARR is monthly revenue x12. So as non-gaap as it gets :D

RIVNMoonMe

They aren't. This is ARR which can easily be manipulated e.g. get several big customers to sign contracts in a single month and front-load the entire contracts on that month's revenue, then multiply by 12 for ARR. I have no doubt their revenue is up substantially but ARR means nothing.

superdreamcast

Be careful with their ARR revenue numbers. Those numbers can be extrapolated off rosy expectations. When Anthropic finally files their public S1, we can see their actual GAAP revenue. Only then can we make an educated guess for their revenue runway.

Tech-100

End of 2025 $9 B ARR Currently at $47 B ARR Investors expect $100 B ARR end of year

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Rumor is they’re already hitting $100B ARR.

lefty200

On a related note, OpenAI Chief Revenue Officer resigns right after a Bloomberg leak that OpenAI ARR is now $40B. I mean, that figure sounds suspicious to me. In January it was $20B, in March $24B and in July suddenly $40B - it virtually doubled overnight.

Ehh_littlecomment

Then why do they need a backstop? Anthropic and friends make 100 bn a year in the most charitable ARR calculations while the data centre is investment is 2 tn+. If they had unlimited demand, a financial backstop wouldn’t be required.

Tim_Apple_938

1 million billion dollars ARR EBIDTA !

lefty200

On a related note, OpenAI Chief Revenue Officer resigns right after a Bloomberg leaks that ARR is now $40B. It's very suspicious that it would just double overnight. Maybe the two things are related...

Wowmuchrya

Yes, anthropic is not doing anything that will not be commoditized in 5 years. There is a reason anthropic is delaying releasing its s1 and ipoing. The business is fundamentally unprofitable. If you gave me a 1t loan I could easily turn that into 40-50b, which is what they are claiming their ARR is currently at (or 80b recently). I’m not moving the goal post, don’t get triggered from something you said yourself. A company that hasn’t even existed to the majority of the public for 5 years is claiming it can compete at a level of companies that have existed for decades. The only way anthropic or openai bring in 200b annually is if VC funds or your 401k gives them a 10t loan or subsidy annually.

Birdperson15

There current ARR is expected to be closer to 70b today. What they are doing is looking at how much additional revenue they have been averaging for the last 8 months and then projecting that forward. They have been doing roughly 10b added revenue every month this year. They project to end the year around 100b. So the 200b is actually projecting a slowdown in their current trajectory.

Amazing_sf

Growth of Anthropic ARR in recent months has been largely inflated by their pricing model change to usage based billing which is a significant bump, plus initial lack of budgeting limits by many enterprise customers (which is being self-corrected).

Birdperson15

The current reporting is they expect 100b - 120b ARR by the end of this year. So they could very well could pass 200 ARR by the end of 2027. So yeah this is very possible and could end up being an underestimate, given their current trajectory.

chilledaf_burrito

Crazy to think a few months ago the ARR we were talking about was \~10 billion

gidea

Rumors are that the current ARR is 110B$ right now, so 200B not only isn’t ridiculous, but also factors in a bit of a plateau/correction.

0valtine_Jenkins

It will not hit that price without Trump fuckery. Google Cloud just hit 100 billion ARR and grew last quarter at 82% YoY and they will sell their own chips beginning 2027

Mitraileuse

This is for FinOps/Platform/Engineering teams to setup, LLM gateways, query reshaping, pipeline efficiency. Yes you are correct that this is not easy problem to solve. But as a user all I know is I want more token budget, which would directly feed into Anthorpics ARR.

LanguageSalty1486

OK, but when Copilot moved to usage based billing, people saw their subscriptions go up by 20x or more and cancelled in droves. Again, we've already seen it. We don't know for sure (and can't until Anthropic publish their numbers) but there are credible estimates that a well-used $200/month Claude sub costs them $8000 to provide. You think "most companies" are going to accept that increase, when they have to start paying for it instead of subsidised intro deals? Where do you think the endless rounds of investor money are going? Why do you think they're always talking about ARR (not even revenue, but ARR) and not profit?

Mitraileuse

My company only gives me an Anthropic subscription. I'm stuck using Sonnet 5 Med because I only have 250$ spend limit, which I request to raise to 500$ every month. I would love to use a better model with higher effort. I would love to set-up more scheduled and automatic workflows. If they give us access the cheaper Chinese models this might your case... but for now I understand why the ARR keeps growing.

imlaggingsobad

there are people projecting that Anthropic will hit >$100B ARR by end of 2026, and then $400-500B ARR by end of 2027.

Olangotang

No they didn't, that's ARR. And training makes the revenue a negative number as it's Opex :)

Beginning_Juice_4296

i'm up 23% YTD because i stay within my circle of competence... on track to 50% ARR for 2026...

ddxv

I would think they were profitable based on May 2026 ARR. As of August I think that's long gone, open weight models you (or a company of your choice) can download for free and run for 50x cheaper. 

michahell

figure what out? That selling compute is the winning thing? Was clear hundreds of years ago, you know, hence selling picks and shovels? www.isaiprofitable.com Now show profitability without saying: “hurr durr ARR” or without this one, even better: “hurr, 50% inference margin, derr”

ptexpat

been in the name for a couple of earnings now which have both been quite good. not seeing the stock react enough yet. will probably hold for another earnings and then decide whether to exit. # Trimble Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance Wed, August 12, 2026 at 3:55 AM WESTMINSTER, Colo., Aug. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Trimble Inc. (Nasdaq: TRMB) today announced financial results for the second quarter of 2026. **Second Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights** * Revenue of $972.0 million, up 11 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 10 percent on an organic basis * Annualized recurring revenue ("ARR") was $2.51 billion, up 14 percent year-over-year, up 12 percent on an organic basis * GAAP operating income was $132.0 million, 13.6 percent of revenue, and non-GAAP operating income was $260.6 million, 26.8 percent of revenue * GAAP net loss was $(471.7) million and non-GAAP net income was $200.3 million: the GAAP net loss was driven largely by a $562.0 million impairment of goodwill related to the Transportation and Logistics ("T&L") segment. * Diluted loss per share was $(2.02) on a GAAP basis and diluted earnings per share was $0.86 on a non-GAAP basis * Adjusted EBITDA was $278.0 million, 28.6 percent of revenue **Forward-Looking Guidance** For the full-year 2026, Trimble expects to report revenue between $3,900 million and $3,950 million, GAAP loss per share of $0.07 to $0.12, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.60 to $3.70. GAAP guidance assumes a tax rate of 145.0 percent and non-GAAP guidance assumes a tax rate of 17.3 percent. Both GAAP loss and non-GAAP earnings per share assume approximately 234 million shares outstanding. For the third quarter of 2026, Trimble expects to report revenue between $953 million and $978 million, GAAP earnings per share of $0.39 to $0.44, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.83 to $0.88. GAAP guidance assumes a tax rate of 24.0 percent and non-GAAP guidance assumes a tax rate of 17.3 percent. Both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share assume approximately 234 million shares outstanding.

Friendly-Ad-4108

They moved from a company selling hardware firewalls only to a SECaaS company. They added many subscription-based products with very high loyalty rate. P/E uses net income that can be distorted in a recurring revenue model. ARR growth is still very strong. They have a lot of cash for acquisition. So now, people think there will be more security products when enterprise adopt AI, further boosting ARR. is it overpriced? yes

FormerBicycle

The rules of the game haven’t changed, there’s just a lot of rubes like you that are completely financially illiterate. There is never good news out of coreweave everything about them is trash. They also aren’t front loading debt, their debt is being graded as junk and they are being treated as a borderline bankrupt company even though they have only avoided bankruptcy because nvidia continuously bails them out. They are positioned in a way that they cannot and will not ever be able to repay this. They have negative operational margins and it’s a nonsensical business. They exists so nvidia can juice sales and go bankrupt on behalf of other companies when they eventually fail on debt raises. You don’t understand that contract, depreciation, or anything about chips if you believe anything you wrote. That contract actually demonstrated, over purchasing, extremely delays on buildout and financial instability. You don’t understand what ARR is or how bookings work, or contracts in general. Honestly that was an absolutely brain dead comment that shows you basically know nothing about revenue period. You don’t understand revenue backlog. Or why that doesn’t really matter. Or really the entire AI buildout in general based on your comment. It’s just a shittier more grotesque piece of shit SPV then the ones that were around for the fibre buildout and considering quite literally everything single piece of your comment was completely ignorant of even the basics of financing I don’t expect you to understand that.

Chance_Mud_7267

Ever heard of a term front-loaded debt? You are evaluating it with old lens when rules of the game have changed. They have only posted good news this quarter and that is why they are rightfully up after hours: CoreWeave recently signed an A100 contract extending through 2029, despite A100 being introduced in 2020. This addresses concerns that GPUs die fast. Managed inference: Booked ARR grew from roughly **$1M to more than $100M in a single quarter**, with CoreWeave targeting at least $250M by year-end. GPUs coming off long-term contracts can also be redeployed into managed inference. Their revenue backlog grew by $29 in first month of Q3 only. If you were seeing this kind of growth, you'd front-load debt to hell to realize this contracted revenue too. It's not your traditional mom and pop shop where you just see ooh debt and losses = bad. See the big picture.

FlyingBishop

still not plural hundreds of billions and certainly nowhere near $750B. I don't know what SoftBank is thinking but getting to $750B without $100B ARR sounds... unlikely.

Negative_Song_6362

hahaha I don't claim to have the answer and neither do you. I am aware gross profit only accounts for revenue minus compute cost. I know they got a deal on compute, but even at 20% gross margin thats pretty impressive for a company that scaled from $10B to $70B ARR

seraphim_west

Free users can be monetized through ads, which OpenAI is already experimenting with through a slow rollout. And a large share of OpenAI’s revenue, and, in Anthropic’s case, most of its revenue, comes from enterprise anyway. Anthropic is seeing unprecedented 10x revenue growth every year and is currently on the road to $100 billion ARR. I agree that these small startups are gonna go under, but that just leads to more consolidation and, in fact, potentially more token demand for the frontier labs. And VC money is heavily concentrated in the two or three frontrunners anyway, so your anecdotal experience isn’t representative of the AI field at large.

Brawmethius

Reported ARR in actual guidance: ~31B including selling their compute to anthropic which is most of half of that just the anthropic deal "Elon can terminate when ever he needs the compute". Rambling CFO and Elon "maybes" "tomorrow bro" is "we would like to target a 100B ARR by DEC 2026". Non-binding promises pulled out of their asses, like most of Elons "next year bro". Hence their actual forecasted ARR of 31B.

Over-Young8392

100B ARR on 200B recurring expenses 🤔

Non-mon-xiety

Anthropic is not consistently making money lol ARR is a fake metric

Non-mon-xiety

Is the ARR in the room w us right now

SoggyMattress2

Just to put into context there's been a rumoured 1.25 trillion in capex spend for around 60bn in actual profit returned, and most of that 60bn is contested by prominent voices in the anti AI scene as it's all circular financing and all we have to go off is ARR. From what I understand Amazon even at its lowest point in terms of spend Vs revenue was operating at a 16bn total loss.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Anthropic is going to hit $100B ARR in year 4 and people will still argue that the investment isn’t worth it. How many companies have hit that number?

AccountOfMyAncestors

You bers are a hoot. Anthropic's margins are staggering and revenue growth for them and OpenAI have not plateaued at all, they are still on track to 100 billy ARR by the end of this year and possibly even higher. Keep buying those puts though, someone's gotta be the tard on the losing end of the trade

Forward-Marzipan326

Q2 Revenue: $574.7M Q2 Adj. EBITDA: $173.1M Q2 Adj. EBIT: ($202M) 2026 Revenue: $3.38B 2026 CapEx: $22.5B Company guidance: 2026 Revenue: $3-3.4B Group Adj. EBITDA margin: -40% YE2026 ARR: $7-9B YE2026 Connected Power: 800MW-1GW YE2026 Contracted Power: >4GW 2026 CapEx: $20-25B

LarryStink

Their overseas revenue is affected by FX and the iran war and following dollar spike hurts. Guiding lower is a smart move even if internally they know they will beat and raise. The forward guidance and deal flow is what matters, and what investors are paying attention to. Every new deal is incremental growth in ARR and that will show up over time. I trust the process. 

Snoo29444

PANW’s valuation is high for **two different reasons**: its quoted GAAP P/E is partly distorted by acquisition accounting, but the company also carries a genuinely enormous strategic premium. At the latest close, PANW was about **$364 per share**, with a **$291 billion market cap** and roughly a **347× trailing GAAP P/E**. In Q3, PANW reported a **$183 million GAAP operating loss** but **$814 million of non-GAAP operating income** because non-GAAP results excluded $517 million of stock compensation, $198 million of acquisition costs, and $280 million of acquired-intangible amortization. So the 347× GAAP P/E makes it look especially absurd. But even after normalizing, it is still extremely expensive. **What the market is actually paying** Using PANW’s current market cap, its April balance sheet, and FY2026 guidance: Approximate enterprise value: **$286 billion** EV/FY2026 revenue: **about 25×** EV/FY2026 adjusted free cash flow: **about 67×** Price/FY2026 non-GAAP EPS: **about 96×** EV/trailing unadjusted free cash flow: **about 75×** PANW is guiding to approximately $11.42 billion of FY2026 revenue, a 37.5% adjusted free-cash-flow margin, and $3.77–$3.79 of non-GAAP EPS. That is not merely an accounting illusion. **The stock really is priced at a rarefied valuation.** **Why investors are willing to pay it** **1. PANW is being treated as the cybersecurity “operating system”** The old PANW thesis was that it sold excellent firewalls. The current thesis is that enterprises will consolidate much of their security stack onto PANW: Network security and firewalls SASE Cloud security Security operations through Cortex/XSIAM AI application and agent security through Prisma AIRS Identity security through CyberArk Observability through Chronosphere The important idea is that cybersecurity is moving from dozens of disconnected point products toward a few integrated platforms. PANW may be the company with the broadest credible enterprise platform and the installed base to cross-sell it. About **65% of NGS ARR now comes from “platformized” customers**, with roughly **120% net revenue retention** among those customers. Management is targeting more than 4,000 platformizations and **$20 billion of NGS ARR by FY2030**. That combination—large installed base, integrated data, distribution, and cross-selling—is what causes investors to think of PANW less like an ordinary software vendor and more like the potential **Microsoft of cybersecurity**. **2. AI may expand every part of PANW’s addressable market** AI creates more software, more network traffic, more machine identities, more autonomous agents, and faster attacks. PANW can potentially monetize all of those: More AI traffic creates more demand for network inspection. AI agents create an identity-security problem, supporting CyberArk. Machine-speed attacks require automated SOC products such as XSIAM. Companies deploying models and agents need dedicated AI-security products such as AIRS. AI infrastructure generates massive telemetry and observability demand. There is already tangible growth beneath the narrative: SASE ARR was about **$1.6 billion and growing around 40%**, XSIAM ARR exceeded **$600 million and was growing around 100%**, and Prisma AIRS had surpassed 300 customers, with management expecting more than $100 million of ARR within two quarters. Reuters also attributed PANW’s recent guidance increase and rerating to stronger AI-related cybersecurity demand. **3. The cash-generation profile is unusually strong** PANW reported a trailing adjusted free-cash-flow margin of **38.5%**, up 430 basis points, and is targeting **40% by FY2028**. Investors are therefore not valuing it as a 14%-growth hardware company. They are valuing it as a company that could sustain: high-teens or 20%-plus recurring growth + approximately 40% cash margins That combination normally deserves a major premium. **4. Recent results encouraged investors to believe the bull case** The latest quarter showed: Organic NGS ARR growth: **28%** Organic RPO growth: **22%** Organic revenue growth: **14%** Adjusted FCF growth: **34%** Those recurring and forward-looking measures are considerably stronger than the organic revenue number. Investors appear to believe ARR growth will eventually pull recognized revenue growth higher as newer products scale. **What is already priced in** A rough reverse DCF illustrates the problem. Starting with approximately **$4.28 billion of guided adjusted FCF**, a roughly $286 billion enterprise value, a 3.5% terminal-growth assumption, and a 9%–10% discount rate, PANW needs approximately: **20%–23% annual free-cash-flow growth for ten years** to justify the present valuation. Management’s $20 billion FY2030 NGS ARR target implies roughly **22% annual ARR growth through FY2030**, so the valuation is effectively giving PANW substantial credit for hitting that ambitious target—and then continuing to compound strongly after 2030. That is possible. It is not a conservative base case. **The parts of the story the valuation overlooks** The headline Q3 numbers were heavily acquisition-assisted. Revenue grew 31%, but only **14% organically**; NGS ARR grew 60%, but **28% organically**; RPO grew 36%, but **22% organically**. There are also meaningful quality-of-earnings issues: Q3 stock compensation was **$517 million**, or roughly **17% of revenue**. Basic weighted-average shares rose from 665 million to 801 million year over year, approximately **20% dilution**. The company’s balance sheet now contains around **$29 billion of goodwill and acquired intangibles**, versus roughly $5.3 billion before the major acquisitions. “Adjusted” FCF adds back acquisition-related payments and certain capital expenditures, so it is more generous than plain free cash flow. Stock compensation is particularly important: it raises reported cash flow while transferring part of the business to employees. It is not equivalent to an ordinary cash expense, but it is not free either. **My assessment** **PANW deserves a premium. The present magnitude of that premium is much harder to defend.** The market is pricing PANW as: The winner in enterprise security consolidation. A major beneficiary of AI-driven attack-surface growth. A durable 20%-plus recurring-growth company. A future 40%-FCF-margin company. A highly successful integrator of CyberArk, Chronosphere, and future acquisitions. If all five happen, the stock can eventually grow into the valuation. But there is little allowance for merely “good” execution. Organic growth falling into the mid-teens, weaker CyberArk integration, continued heavy dilution, or a modest decline in software multiples could produce a severe de-rating even while the underlying business remains healthy. **My characterization: elite company, euphoric price.** The valuation is understandable, but at roughly 67× generous adjusted FCF, investors are paying for something close to the bull case rather than receiving much upside optionality. Yw for the meat proxy

english_fool

And ARR is not revenue, oh look this month we made a gajillion dollars whilst all our partners gave us a month off of spend, that means we make 12 gajillion dollars a year.

LarryStink

Going to go 100% into PATH shares in my long term account tomorrow. Already at 50% will be at 2000 shares and have around 50 call options for this November and next june 2027. Earnings coming up in a few weeks, going to be a big one. Wall Street wont be able to ignore the deal count, partnerships, ARR margin and revenue growth all natural with little to no debt on the balance sheet. I see in PATH what I called out in PLTR at 18$ and got laughed at. It was a 10x in 12 months. I see a long time horizon for path to reach that level but it will get there none the less.

nuttreo

Anthropic has gone from $10M to $67B in ARR in the last 36 months. This isn’t a bubble it’s an Industrial Revolution happening in realtime. It’s going to depreciate skilled labor and monster tech companies will likely become many, small and medium sized ones as self built and hyper customized software becomes a thing.

Reaper_1492

I think these LLM providers are going to be a wallstreet bets rollercoaster. It’s all going to be about ARR/subs, like Netflix, and Anthropic and OpenAi swap customers at unbelievable rates based on whichever model/company shit the bed that month. I think you’re going to see an attempt to shift toward annual/quarterly memberships, and the consumer market isn’t going to bite. You’d have to be nuts to sign a long term agreement with these guys knowing what they do to their model performance and usage rates week by week.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

>ChatGPT usage dropped by 50% to 70% during school break in 2025. Showing their market share is composed largely of kids that won't be paying for it. I can't believe OP has 13 upvotes writing junk like this. I guess people on r/stocks really do hate OpenAI for some bizarre reason. Maybe it's because OpenAI competes with their precious Google? Anyways, OpenAI's revenue has sky rockted to approximately $70b ARR based on their CFO's latest comments.

aliph

The magnitude of what they are building is absurd. If you believe in AI, which I do, they deploy (terrestrial) compute faster and cheaper than anyone, even Google, Amazon, and the other hyperscalers. AWS has $170B revenue and 40% growth rate. XAI has $100B contracted ARR and is at 100% growth rate, and has the edge on speed and cost of compute. Draw your own conclusions on that. Then there's space compute. If you believe in AI, earth simply cannot produce enough power or hold enough data centers. If AI continues on its current trend it's game over with SpaceX dominating the compute infrastructure. Starlink v3 has 10x more bandwidth and can be deployed for 10x cheaper with Starship. It is currently profitable and competitive with broadband. They could undercut broadband by 90% and still have 10x profitability. They could basically take over the entire telecom market with massive margins. $2T annual revenue, they grow that market, huge profitability, people misattribute current market cap of telecom due to low profitability of current telecom. I could go on. I have a small amount of my net worth invested in them, it's just a lot in real dollars because I bought 20x levered calls on Tesla in 2018 before it 20x in price. I'll give Elon a good chunk of that. Let's see what happens.

codemonkeylife

He makes multimillion ARR from his subs. If all were on premium tier it'd be like $100m per year. His whole business these days is selling FUD on substack.

MitchCurry

AXON ARR grew 39% y/y, NRR hit a record 126%, and future contracted bookings grew 41%. This was their 10th consecutive quarter of 30%+ growth. They landed 2 nine-figure city contracts, and international and enterprise revenue each tripled.

hakim37

ARR can't be used for the year in questions revenue but tracks for the years following. 2 doublings is actually like a single years growth at current rates.  So let's slow it down to one doubling a year after 2026. They exit 2026 at $70B then 2027 at 140 and  2028 at 280. Early shortfall is mitigated by the buffer of raising capital and backwards weighing the obligations. Even then I agree you kind of need to squint and they would likely need to still be growing 20-40% after 2028 to make it work.

studoondoon

I’m having trouble squaring your projections. You mentioned 2 doublings from their projected 2026 ending ARR, which would get them to about $300B in ARR. A) ARR is not actual revenue. 1Q26 revenue was just $6B so if they end at $70B in ARR, full year revenue will be closer to $50B. B) From there, two doublings gets you to $200B in annual revenue. That’s plausibly close to $300B annually but as you mention, the commitment is $1.4T over 5 years which is backloaded. Hitting $300B in annual revenue isn't sufficient to meet their commitments. In order to get to $1.4T over 5 years, revenue would essentially need to double each year ($50B in 2026, $100B in 2027, $200B in 2028, $400B in 2029, $800B in 2030) for a total of 4 doublings. $800B is more than the revenue of the entire cloud computing industry last year, and more than Amazon (the world’s largest company by revenue) collected last year. Needing to double your revenue every year for the next five years and simply to cover your committed expenditures is a tall order. I doubt there will be an $800B market for coding assistants alone. Utilization of AI outside of coding assistants has been slow, and is increasingly dominated by open source models where OpenAI doesn’t really compete. It’s not impossible but I’m skeptical about extrapolating their “historical growth rates” five years into the future.

ImaginaryCreator

The next two quarters are gonna be huge test whether we know this is the real deal or not. They pretty much double in revenue quarter over quarter to reach 100 billion ARR by end of 2026

cleverhobbits

This stock is pretty divorced from earnings. “The earnings were good. I'm just not sure the earnings are what matters most this week.” Musk threw out $100 billion in ARR run rate on the earnings call. That’s mostly from AI compute. They all know it’s about announcing more and more compute deals and data center expansion to get close to current market valuation.

CommercialDuck7496

Even if they only hit an 80B ARR, that growth rate is insane, and they clearly aren't expecting it to stop there. so like if its 70B by end of the year, 150B by end of next year, and 270B by end of 2028, that kind of growth could justify that valuation

rain_maker15

Spacex: Elon just mentioned 100 billion ARR by November. That would change my mind on investing in this stock if the space field and rocket industry average price to earnings is high, which it is.

Perspective-Parking

SpaceX said “we expect to have $100B ARR by end of 2026” wtf 😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣

noobgiraffe

SPCX call is hilarious, 7bil this quarter in sales and the guy is, we actually will do 100bil ARR this year based on wishes and hopes.

banaca4

you know that anthropic is the record fastest ARR company in history right? they 10x revenue every year and their last was 10bln. you know these things right? right?! 0omg reddit

PaperHandsTheDip

Correct - but we are seeing demand outpace supply right now, and it continue to grow. Hyperscalers are \*increasing\* their capex while simultaneously hitting profitability on their AI investments (MSFT & AMZN jumped last week due to this on their ERs). I use claude & codex - and it frequently goes down... like a surprisingly large amount. The reason is due to demand outstripping supply. In a cycle the demand drops - but I don't think we are seeing that here. We are seeing demand exponentially grow due to improvements in the models as well as decreased costs. Ever since Opus 4.8 came out demand has exploded. Look at anthropics ARR / growth rate for example. It's quite literally the fastest growing company in our worlds history. Demand is there & very real, and growing. A cycle suggests demand will drop - will it for AI? I honestly don't think so, so long as it continues to improve at exponential rates & the costs continue to come down.

LarryStink

We need a software that is model agnostic, has a human in the loop optionality for sensitive and critical decisions, ability to pull from multiple APIs, and task assignment to LLM or RPA to maximize efficiency and reduce costs from unnecessary token spend. Using LLMs for small repetive tasks is like using an axe to trim your nails. A bit overkill and inefficient. If only there was a company that did this. And had growing ARR, margins, deals, and share volume traded. *$PATH*

papakong88

The ARR assumes no losses in 250 days of trading. Next, one must take into consideration how losses will affect the ARR and how likely they can occur. Each one of us will do the next step differently. I choose to ignore it in this stand alone junk strategy because I judge that it is unlikely to happen. In the original Papakong88 0DTE strategy (Ref 1) a trio of 25HTE, 0DTE and junk options is sold daily in equal amounts. Each trio can produce 3.40 and in 250 days produce 850 in 250 days using 300 in risk capital. The strikes are chosen so that only one of the trio is at risk each day and the max loss is 100. Therefore, I can have 5 max losses and still have a >100% ARR. Ref 1: [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1sbgx7w/managing\_risk\_in\_a\_picking\_pennies\_0dte\_strategy/](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1sbgx7w/managing_risk_in_a_picking_pennies_0dte_strategy/).

george_alto

If their revenue growth keeps compounding then they will be ok. But that's a big "IF". Look at the growth Anthropic has had so far this year. In the beginning of January 2026, it was at $9 billion Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR). Now at the end of July it's estimated to be at \~$74 billion ARR. That is explosive growth and the reason they overtook Openai in revenue growth. Can it continue for both OpenAI and Anthropic? Everything has to go perfect in my opinion and honestly everything won't and there are many things that are still working themselves out and nobody knows where things will be even in 6 months. But honestly, that's the exciting part for me - every month, something new has happened, new leaders emerge, new opportunities are created, etc But as far as OpenAI (and Anthropic) is concerned, there is a big change coming in the industry and it's coming fast! Look out! Open Weight models are going to actually enter the market and start to be used more and more by companies and only use the Frontier models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, etc) for specialized capabilities. This will control the token costs which are beginning to get out of control for a lot of companies. Yes, open weight models are already in the market today and are from China and that is why there is a huge discussion happening in the US on whether to ban them or not. But eventually, there will be open weight models in the US and used as I described. Note: Open weight models are similar to open source. They are available for free and can be used for free. Whereas using frontier models like OpenAI and Anthropic, you are paying token costs for using them. That poses the compounded revenue growth question for OpenAI and others - can it continue with open weight models entering the market and being used more and more? Is there enough demand in specialized AI needs that the frontier models have to support that needed compound growth? That to me is the RISK for them! If, or should I say when, OpenAI and Anthropic enter the public markets, they will get penalized heavily for any misses on expectations, contract not working out as expected, new threats to their business model, etc. Best thing they can do is stay private as these things work themselves out.

hakim37

Oracle has a hugely profitable business to fund their AI debt, they're not going bankrupt. If any player is going to fall first it's the neoclouds. The only thing that will actually pop this "bubble" (which might be the only time in history where literally everyone is calling it a bubble) is a sudden plateau in demand. Personally I just don't believe it's a bubble anymore. If you asked me last year I would have said capex was through the roof and there's no way to make this money back. But last year Anthropic was on a 10B ARR and LLMs needed a lot of hand holding to do anything productive. This year Anthropic and OpenAI now have line of sight on revenue figures that can make this whole thing worth it, and the models have just gotten relentlessly better. Capex in 2025 wasn't that much lower than 2026 so clearly the last 12 months have done some de-risking on the whole situation.

hakim37

The other comment addressed their decelerating growth being fine for their current revenue and projection but also I want to add that this barely applies to Anthropic unless you really squint and only look at their last couple months. Anthropic will beat even their bull scenario laid out in 2025 of 10x revenue in 2026 at $100B ARR. I remember a interview with Dario at the start of 2026 who said it would be crazy if they 10x in 2026 yet here we are and it's looking more likely to be a 15x. In fact the main reason OpenAI had decelerating growth is because of Anthropics revenue run. Still OpenAI have increased their 2026 EOY forecast because of GPT 5.6 adoption and GPT 6 early performance. For your other point on demand being less than supply I don't think this is true we've seen anthropic repeatedly have service degradation because of GPU capacity and recently bought out XAIs colossus at 2x above spot price. But also current demand is still determined by market penetration which takes time to filter through and currently below 50% even in software, and also model capabilities as better models unlocked new use cases.