ARR

Crazy_Donkies

With what capacity?   Unless the job listings from all over the world is an indicator of contracted capacity, not feeling good about a new big deal. We need to see ARR over $1.3b as of 12/31, $550mm in 2025 revenue,  and confirmation of $5-7b in ARR by eoy 2026.

MitchCurry

Soft guidance from MNDY, just 18% y/y at the midpoint. Interestingly, they opted to report RPO for the first time. It shows 37% y/y growth ($839MM, up from $614MM). They also reported cRPO for the first time which was up 31% y/y ($676MM, up from $516MM). I do wish they had given what the numbers were at the end of 2023 so we could see if growth is accelerating or decelerating. My guess is the latter, otherwise they probably would have provided them. NDRR was basically flat across the board. Customer growth was close to flat. They reported >$500,000 ARR customers for the first time, showing growth from 50 to 87. This aligns with their goal of moving upmarket. Overall, I get why it's down. It's not great. Not awful either. I'm not adding to my position. Of all the SaaS companies I own, they are probably the most fragile in terms of AI disruption. Thesis could be dying. Will check in on quarterly releases and re-evaluate after the next Q4 (unless something drastic happens b/t now and then).

collegefootballfan69

Just wait til the market rotates out of stable, profitable cos and back to SaaS cos and companies that measure ARR…it will rip your face off.

Cande0818

RZLV is the only correct answer here. 209 mill ARR in 2025, with 500 mill plus projected for 2026. Revenue in 25 was 40 mill projected for 2026 its 350 mill. Sitting on over 300 mill in cash. Just coming out from under short attack. Strong partnerships with Msft, Goog, and Tether. Strong leadership team, big margins. They are planning to dominate online shopping AI.

cjuge1867

The current shorts will be wiped out come earnings. They should be forced to cover at 5.00. Margin will come calling and they won’t have a choice. I’m assuming (not investment advice) they will start feeling pressure this month or next month. And the heat will get turned on high during earnings. They show proof they are on track to hit their exorbitant yearly ARR and revenue, there won’t be any stopping it. All just my opinion and my .02z

Dull-Psychology-3705

Rzlv has a big short position. ARR up to 500 mil

RollingMeteors

>You can't just take Reddit's best quarter and x4 it and call it an ARR. ¿Have you looked at the market lately?

Jussttjustin

Except Q4 is where Reddit makes half its money due to holiday clicks. Not true for Google. You can't just take Reddit's best quarter and x4 it and call it an ARR.

barrybadhoer

Long term outlook was good. On track for 3.4b ARR by end of 2026. New 1.6MW site announced and they completed financing for the current build out. Of course this Q's revenue is going to disappoint when bitcoin is free falling and they are swapping miners for ai hardware

MindlessExit2541

CXApp Inc. (CXAI): A Bullish Due Diligence Thesis on Revitalizing Workplace AI Innovation CXApp Inc. (NASDAQ: CXAI) CXAI's platform is crushing it with massive global deployments—AI-powered employee experiences, intelligent space management, real-time insights, and seamless, a leader in AI-enhanced workplace experience platforms, continues to demonstrate untapped potential in a market increasingly reliant on digital tools for hybrid work optimization. As of early 2026, with shares trading at approximately $0.28, the company's market capitalization hovers around $9-11 million, a stark undervaluation when juxtaposed against its intellectual property assets, including 37 patents (17 granted) focused on spatial intelligence and generative AI workflows. The CXAI Platform integrates desk booking, digital mapping, analytics, and AI-driven personalization, serving over 150 Fortune 1000 clients in diverse sectors such as technology, healthcare, and finance. Recent expansions, including deployments at iconic sites like 30 Rockefeller Plaza, underscore its scalability across 200+ cities globally. This thesis expands on prior analyses by delving into financial resilience, strategic positioning, and speculative catalysts, arguing that ethical, data-backed promotion—rooted in SEC-compliant disclosures—can legally amplify visibility and drive share appreciation toward historical peaks and beyond, potentially reaching $50 per share through compounded growth and market rerating. Asymmetry to elite levels. As of mid-January 2026 settlements, short interest stands at 1.48 million shares, equating to 5–6.7% of the float (sources vary: 4.99%–6.70% per Yahoo, Fintel, Finviz, MarketBeat). While days-to-cover remains low (0.9–1.0) due to elevated average daily volume (7–14 million shares recently), the setup is primed for rapid escalation. Short interest rose ~35% month-over-month in the latest report, signaling growing bearish conviction amid the microcap's volatility. Elevated borrow rates (recently ~13.5%) and limited short availability add friction to covering. A catalyst—such as a surprise enterprise win, margin-beating earnings, or broader AI sentiment—could spark initial covering, forcing shorts higher and triggering a feedback loop. Low-float stocks with improving fundamentals frequently exhibit this pattern: pressure builds until shorts capitulate en masse, driving parabolic moves. CXAI's enterprise traction differentiates it from pure-speculation plays, providing a more durable base for sustained upside post-squeeze.The comparison to TechCreate Group (TCGL) illuminates CXAI's squeeze viability while highlighting qualitative advantages. In late January 2026, TCGL experienced extreme volatility: repeated trading halts (multiple per session), a surge from modest levels to triple-digit prices (up 1,900–4,800% in days), and eventual SEC suspension citing potential manipulation via social media coordination. TCGL's frenzy was largely catalyst-light—driven by meme-style flows, low float, and speculative volume—culminating in inquiries and halts as price action defied fundamentals. CXAI shares key structural traits: similar float size (~22–24 million), high retail visibility potential, and vulnerability to liquidity crunches. Yet CXAI's profile is superior—recurring revenue, patent moat, Fortune 500 renewals, and agentic AI positioning—offering legitimate catalysts absent in TCGL's run. If accumulation tightens supply and a news trigger emerges, CXAI could mirror TCGL's halt-induced gaps and "berserk" surges (potentially multiple halts upward), but with fundamentals supporting longer-term holding. This parallel underscores explosive near-term potential while reinforcing CXAI's edge in sustainability.Risks demand rigorous assessment at a master's level. Microcap status invites volatility and potential dilution (e.g., via equity raises, as seen recently), though CXAI's cash discipline and renewal momentum mitigate near-term needs. Competitive pressures from larger SaaS players persist, yet CXAI's niche in spatial/agentic AI creates differentiation. Macro factors (e.g., enterprise spending cycles) could delay adoption, but AI's secular tailwinds provide a buffer. Quantitatively, DCF scenarios assuming 25–40% CAGR in ARR yield intrinsic values of $5–$15 short-term, scaling toward $50 with market share gains and margin expansion to 90%+. Sensitivity to squeeze variables—e.g., 10–20% short interest increase or volume spikes—reveals 5–10x intraday potential in extreme cases.In conclusion, CXAI encapsulates a rare convergence of undervalued fundamentals, constrained float, rising short pressure, and verifiable catalysts in the explosive AI-workplace nexus. Ethical, data-driven promotion—anchored in SEC filings, earnings releases, and transparent analysis—can legally "pump" awareness, enabling float absorption and squeeze ignition to propel shares toward $50 aspirations. Parallels to TCGL's halted frenzy highlight near-term fireworks, while CXAI's enterprise-grade traction promises durability beyond speculation. CXAI bullish sentiment heading into earnings...

Rock_or_Rol

*trained on reddit* “our ARR is planned for, um, to the moon?”

PixelsOfTheEast

Seems to be pumped. Its why I'm staying away from it. Semicab is a legit business because my company works with them. They largely operate in South India and are about improving operational efficiency of logistics. Logistics in India is very fragmented and expensive, so there is demand for it. They've gained pilots/ contracts with very large companies in 2025, so medium & smaller ones will follow. If they need $20 mil ARR to be profitable, I think they'll get there by the end of 2026. But I don't know how they'll expand beyond South India to other parts of India let alone other countries. Its a limited TAM. Also the sheer number of posts about RIME make me uncomfortable. If its pump & dump, we may not be able to make money off it even if fundamentals gradually improve. It may end up working but I'm passing this one.

mihid

Simple answer: it was too expensive [https://app.rast.guru/?company=Samsara](https://app.rast.guru/?company=Samsara) But it got down to quite a good price honestly, especially given their great growth in terms of 'Customers with $100K+ ARR'

Massive-Celery4758

By the way, CRWD does $5B ARR and has a market cap os $111b. This is 22x revenue. They have a slower revenue growth rate than SentinelOne. There is zero reason why SentinelOne will not eventually get the same treatment. Wild times! 

Massive-Celery4758

Company has built $1b+ in ARR and growing fast. Somehow worth less than $5b market cap. This is an incredible opportunity. At $2b+ in ARR and profitable, the stock should be worth $40B, which is 10x... Good luck everyone! 

Humble-Marketing-694

Hi, GOING CONCERN warnings are standard legal boilerplate for almost every micro cap trying to scale, but you have to look at the timeline. That 10-Q is from September, and since then SOBR has already secured a $2M private placement and is sitting on a potential $3.3M cash tail from warrants, which significantly extends the runway mentioned in that filing. When you combine that fresh cash with their 136% YoY revenue growth and 60% sequential ARR jump, it's clear they are successfully outrunning the burn. At a $2.4M market cap, you're basically getting a priced for bankruptcy valuation on a company that is actually hitting its highest sales numbers ever right now

Humble-Marketing-694

Fair point. Since they are still in the early scaling phase, they don't break out NRR or churn as specific line items yet (standard for micro-caps at this stage). However, based on the latest Q3 filings: Software subscriptions already represent roughly **55% of total revenue**, with ARR growing **60% sequentially** last quarter. The platform is an HR and insurance integrated safety protocol. Once a fleet or facility embeds this into their daily workflow and liability insurance policy, the switching cost is massive.

Successful_Area_3867

Should pop off next earnings report in April once their ARR claims are validated. They are a british company so only have to disclose twice a year.

macromind

Measurable operational wins are definitely the right lens for logistics SaaS, especially when the value prop is something like empty miles. On the "enterprise adoption vs capital needs" tradeoff, I usually look for (1) expansion revenue from the same logos, (2) time-to-value staying stable as deployments grow, and (3) whether pilots turn into multi-site rollouts without custom one-off work. Also, if you are tracking GTM content and messaging around a story like this (case studies, event follow-ups, investor comms), we have been building Promarkia as a lightweight marketing workspace: https://www.promarkia.com/ Curious, do they disclose gross retention vs net retention anywhere, or only ARR?

macromind

The part that stands out here is the measurable ROI, empty miles is a clean metric and thats rare. Enterprise adoption usually comes down to implementation risk and whether they can prove value fast. Do you know what the typical pilot timeframe is for something like this, 30 days, 90 days? That detail usually matters a lot when thinking about ARR expansion vs long sales cycles. Slightly adjacent, but if anyone is working on their SaaS positioning and funnel story for enterprise buyers, we have a small app at https://www.promarkia.com/ that helps structure GTM messaging (no pressure, just sharing).

slimjones444

If ARR keeps growing like this, do you think bigger logistics players start paying attention?

monsoonwinds

Not sure why everyone is convinced openai is dead and MSFT is toast - Chatgpt has 5-8X users vs what gemini has , 20Bn ARR revenue - [https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/) , Its an alternative to google gemini in search , it has started to experiment with Ads - Straight off Meta and Google Ads in search playbook. I think i saw somewhere in the earnings call that anthropic has given Azure a big contract - So Claude is also on Azure. AI compeitiveness is based on chip availability and data - If Nvda backs Openai , it has access to more chips than google. Openai has access to a lot of external money Softbank , Saudi - and is not publicly listed - a big advantage while raising money. Google can deploy only balance sheet money , being publicly listed. I remember a while back when "Google was dead Openai will destroy google search" - We have come a full 180 degrees.

macromind

Appreciate the clean summary. Low float + meaningful short interest is basically a recipe for big swings on any catalyst. One thing I am always curious about with these "enterprise expansion" updates is how much is true recurring software revenue vs services/implementation attached to the deal. That can change the quality of the ARR story. We do a lot of reading on SaaS growth and how companies communicate ARR and expansions (mostly for marketing/positioning work). If you want, our notes live here: https://www.promarkia.com/

Bubble_Rider

I think the main issue is there are zillions of podcasts screaming about AI bubble and the target is a company which is booking 1B ARR in one month and has close to 1B active users. Bubble in AI-bubble forecasts from podcasters with zero technical expertise - thanks in advance for the leaps I plan to buy tomorrow.

Acceptable-Target363

Oh wow the guy selling GPUs said the AI trade isn’t recycling revenue? Never ask the barber if you need a haircut. Also Microsoft for 3 quarters report their AI-ARR and then stopped suddenly telling you their AI-ARR. Why do you think that is? Is it because the revenue is so good? Also when they did report that AI-ARR It was 13 billion REVENUE NOT PROFIT, 10 Billion of that 13 Billion was discounted Azure credits to OpenAI. This after hundreds of billions in CapEx. This is a disaster

NVDAismyg0d

Tesla FSD ARR scam number is going to pump the stock. They did it for a reason the week before earnings 

Crazy_Donkies

Puts.  I'm sure it will climb but the right thing to do is puts.  Mark to market shit load of devalued BTC, lost credits, down sales, investment in bullshit?  Has to be bad.   They will forecast some high sales number though and new ARR from FSD, but wtf.

Puzzleheaded-One-607

It seems like one of those really silly “sympathy sell offs” to me. The stock is cheap compared to other cybersecurity plays and has ARR that’s highly encouraging. I’m probably going long on them tomorrow

Portfoliana

Solid data collection. The 11% conversion rate in your sample is way higher than the current 1.88% MAU penetration, which suggests either strong adoption momentum or sample bias toward younger/more engaged users. The real play here is timing. September 2026 deletion deadline creates forced conversion pressure, but you're essentially betting against CEO insider sales (Spiegel dumped shares earlier this month). Subscription multiples are attractive, but Snap's core business is still bleeding users to TikTok/Reels. If this holds, ARR boost could be material. But watch for churn once people realize they're paying $60/year to store old party pics.

Comfortable_Bath3609

And since u brought up Chinese models, Zhipu and minimax are actually individually listed with market cap around 13 and 20bn USD, take a wild guess how much ARR they have right now.

breakyourteethnow

meme stocks? IREN ARR 2025 was 500m, IREN ARR 2026 2b with MSFT deal paying out. More than 1200 employees on site and development is on pace. LAC has 2b investment from Department of Energy, mine is of national security at this point it's on U.S. soil. Idk where you get meme from those names.

Spear_n_Magic_Helmet

options scanner has selling RDDT CCs at 255% ARR 😂

PixelsOfTheEast

How much ARR does it need to be positive?

PolicyAdmirable

I run a small device startup university spinout with an early indication for MASH and have compared our therapy in early preclinical studies to just about every MASH prospect out there and pemvidutide is clearly the most promising as a dual agonist (not my take, this is what our university lab researchers believe). The billion dollar Akero and 89bio (bought after phase 2) deals are a tailwind for us, but even just looking at Rezzdiffra (Madrigal) as a comp this drug has exceeded $1B ARR in just a year DESPITE the fact that it's $40k/yr and only 30% of patients respond to it. You never know with pharma, but yeah this is the one I'm bullish on and I've only lost money on Madrigal I think because of the broader rotations into $ALT. We will see!

BillCarr451

$3 28 day csp in bmnu for $0.15 yesterday x34. 68%ARR

gardenia856

Your main point is right: you can’t just extrapolate $/GW and assume OpenAI gets Apple-level revenue in five years. The counter-argument leans on current ARR and “best model” status, but that’s a snapshot, not a moat. Two big frictions: 1) enterprises don’t like single-vendor lock-in when there are good open‑source and hyperscaler options, and 2) most consumers won’t pay much for generic chat, so you need deep vertical workflows (coding, design, sales, ops) to justify real spend. Also, ads based on “ChatGPT knows everything about me” is risk, not just upside. Regulators already hate Meta and Google; a chat app that quietly ingests salary and medical stuff is a headline machine. If anything, I’d watch who owns the boring plumbing: Azure, GCP, Nvidia, plus workflow tools like Notion or HubSpot, and even Reddit-native tools like Sprout Social or Pulse for Reddit where AI is embedded in concrete tasks, not just model access. So yeah, AI is huge, but the clean $10B/GW curve is way too neat for a market this messy.

SavingsMean1840

$NBIS$ is basically the "Phoenix" of the AI sector, reborn from the Yandex restructuring and now operating as a pure-play AI infrastructure provider. It’s currently a high-beta favorite because they're hitting massive milestones, like the national AI supercomputer in Israel going live this month and their massive $19B Microsoft deal.  Management is guiding for an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $7B to $9B by the end of 2026, which is a wild jump from where they are now.  However, the stock has been a battleground around the $100 level lately; while bulls are eyeing $160+, the heavy CapEx burn and dilution risk from their recent $4B capital raise are keeping the "sideways" chop alive for now. Are you looking at $NBIS$ as a long-term equity play, or are you trying to trade the high IV with spreads? With it sitting right around that $100 psychological level, what's your "uncle point" for a stop-loss? Do you think the market has already priced in that $7B-$9B ARR guidance, or is there still a "show me" discount on the stock?

2443222

Saas is dead or at least shouldn’t have any premium like in the past decade. All saas company can ARR will deflate and got negative in the next decade. Get out now .

SlfImpr

Sam Altman on X >We have added more than $1B of ARR in the last month just from our API business. >People think of us mostly as ChatGPT, but the API team is doing amazing work!

macromind

Interesting DD. The replacement cost angle is a compelling narrative, but I would sanity check the "AI SaaS" pivot part specifically, recurring revenue and retention are what make the multiple expand, not just adding AI to the story. Do they report any SaaS style metrics yet (ARR, gross margin on the subscription piece, churn/NRR), or is it still mostly one-time/variable revenue? That would change how I think about the buyout math. If you are digging into the go-to-market side of SaaS pivots, this might be useful: https://www.promarkia.com

auradragon1

> there's simply no way that OpenAI will ever be able to pay Oracle all the money that they owe them. 1. OpenAI will likely IPO. Right now, they're worth $500b in private valuation based on their last funding round. I'm willing to bet that they can IPO for $1 trillion in valuation today based on pure AI ecstasy and raise a cool $100b in cash. They're the most anticipated IPO of all time in my opinion. 2. The $300b deal starts in 2027 and runs 5 years. **On average, it's $60b/year which is less than what other big AI players are spending now.** Google is spending $75b in 2025. Amazon is spending $100b in 2025. Microsoft is spending $80b in 2025. Meta is spending $72b in 2025. All the players are expected to increase spending in 2026. The deal looks very reasonable from this perspective. 3. OpenAI's revenue 4x'ed this year to $20b ARR. Let's say they can 3x in 2026, that's $60b. But their growth accelerated in 2025. If they 4x again, it's $80b. Let's say they can 3x in 2027 (deal starts here), that's $160b. This is assuming slowing growth. I can also easily see accelerating growth for a few more years. 4. Deal with Oracle will likely be a ramp. Example: $30b in 2027. $60b in 2028. $100b in 2029. $150b in 2030. $160b in 2031. 5 years. It'll allow OpenAI to grow into it. Based on projected revenue, OpenAI will spend about ~50% of their 2027 revenue on payments to Oracle.

breakyourteethnow

Which? Would love to talk more. LAC I believe is of national security now, IREN has massive MSFT deal pushing ARR 2025 from 500m to 2b in 2026. TMC had regulations pushed in its favor today, otherwise wouldn't touch it but want the next no-revenue, doesn't make sense OKLO run. POET has photonic tech which could shake-up AI industry, won awards from China just recently. These are a little too far fetched for my taste but work as lotto plays. I kinda rather LEAPS up on PL, RDW, RKLB for space which is more certain over next few years than those two.

0bserverZ

I'm sure there will be other solutions, but corporations don't like big constantly switching vendors that disrupt operations in very high-stakes processes. Right now is the crucial time for UiPath to convert their customers to their agentic solutions. Once customers build out robust end-to-end agentic workflows with them, those customers will be less likely to want to deal with the cost and disruption of switching to a new orchestration provider. As an investor, I suggest you keep an eye on their customer segment that's greater than $1M in ARR. They need to keep growing this segment to keep their moat in tact. The next 12 months will be critical for PATH. Exciting times ahead.

PuffyPanda200

You seem to state that '10 ai companies with ARR over 1 b' is 'real revenue'. Compared to how much these AI companies/applications spend on GPUs (or renting the GPUs) this just isn't enough. Open AI makes 20 b in revenue and wants to be valued at 1 T USD. Considering the depression on the chips there just isn't a math way to make this work. Now, if you charge 20 bucks per query (number kinda made up but I think it is in the ballpark) then the revenue goes up and all this works. But if open AI did that then the number of queries would go down a lot. Open AI needs to either get the cost per question down a lot or start charging more. If they can't then those round trip investments will seem really bad for Nvidia.

_hiddenscout

No position in the company, but going to look more into, PRGS is having a great day after earnings. \* FY25 strongest year: $978M revenue (+30%), $5.72 EPS (+16%). Exceeded original guidance. \* Q4: $253M revenue (+18%), $1.51 EPS (above guidance). \* ARR: $852M (+2%), 100% net retention. \* ShareFile integration successful, Nuclea added value. \* AI focus: new capabilities, customer wins. \* FY26 Guidance: $1B revenue (high-end), \~$320M unlevered FCF (midpoint). Expect \~2% ARR growth. \* M&A: Active, disciplined approach. Infrastructure SW vendors with strong customer base sought. Selectivity emphasized. \* Balance Sheet strong, debt being paid down. \* Expense control & AI adoption improving productivity. Low attrition. \* Operating margin guided flat for FY26 due to investments. This is why I think some SaaS is still worth looking into and holding on and really going to have to wait until earnings before the market changes it mind.

AbroadMediocre312

Their earnings out last night were positive.  ARR improving steadily, beat EPS/REV, and guided 2026 higher on EPS and in line with revenues.   They also announced they will buy down $250 million of debt in 2026 (the other big concern, they were way over leveraged after the Sharefile buyout.)  That will reduce their debt by 20%. 

InTroubleDouble

Stopped reading at the second point. If they grow 4x in 2026, they‘re at $100b. Thanks for helping me with the calculation, if they grow 8x they are at $200b. If they simply grow 100x that would be trillions! Fantasy numbers detached from economy. And I am not denying the growth of AI usage. As if growth rates do not slow when reaching size limited by size of the overall economy. As if reaching 20bn from 6bn the year before is the same as getting to 100bn the next year. Or 300bn after. You can not just apply insane growth numbers like in the first two years of service. ChatGPT was launched late 2022, 2023 was the first full year with rapid coverage around the world. Since 1-2 years they are heavily trying to monetize while loads of competition entering the market. Just putting into perspective: 300bn would be microsoft level of revenues. Whole world Economy runs on microsoft office. 300b would be significantly more revenues than global giants like Oracle, SAP or IBM critical to their client base. All for a funny gadget most clients at this stage say does not provide real value. You can apply funny multipliers. At this stage with the current product noone on this planet will provide OpenAI with hundreds of billions of ARR. And even if their product may be the best model, before a company pays 100m ARR for their employees to run Birthday cards, they will choose a slightly less competitive model for 1/10th of the price from one of the competitors. That is the main reason pointed out in my initial comment why OpenAI can Not simply scale to 300bn in line with computing power.

auradragon1

I'll counter: * They have absolutely the best models: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard * They have 1 billion users with ChatGPT and still growing fast. ChatGPT is far more popular than anything else in the market. * Their revenue grew 3x in 2024, and 4x in 2025. They just hit $20 billion/year in ARR. If they grow 4x again in 2026, they're at $100b ARR. * "Ask chat gpt" is the same as "google it" for the masses. It's not going to change. * They're highly profitable on inference, according to Sam Altman. This means their unit economics are good. They spend money on training new models in order to compete. * They haven't monetized their close to 1 billion free users. They're testing ads now. I think ads is going to work extremely well with ChatGPT because of how much personal data it knows about each user. * They're building dedicated AI devices which will bring in them into competition against Apple directly.

auradragon1

Counter: * They have absolutely the best models: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard * They have 1 billion users with ChatGPT. ChatGPT is far more popular than anything else in the market. * They Their revenue grew 3x in 2024, and 4x in 2025. They just hit $20 billion/year in ARR. If they grow 4x again in 2025, they're at $100b ARR. * "Ask chat gpt" is the same as "google it" for the masses. It's not going to change. * They're highly profitable on inference, according to Sam Altman. This means their unit economics are good. They spend money on training new models in order to compete. * They haven't monetized their close to 1 billion free users. They're testing ads now. I think ads is going to work extremely well with ChatGPT because of how much personal data it knows about each user.

breakyourteethnow

IREN had 500m ARR 2025, projected ARR 2026 2b. There's much better opportunities.

PetrolPharma

They announced a huge upgrade in ARR so I ported my free capital into calls and sold the next morning for big returns. I think it’s a good hold, but as the other guy said, AI is a no from me. Especially AI made for retail. Military industrial complex is where my holdings are now

Unlikely_Magician630

Its facing delisting, its into another dodgy finance agreement with streeterville so no doubt theyll scalp something in the foreseeable future. They still need close to 20 mil in ARR to break even otherwise theyre out of cash by end of q3 this year roughly. Its a risky bet

Red_Devils_2402

Among the current SaaS i like ServiceNOW. They are building the actual operating system for AI agents. Their Now Assist is an autonomous layer that executes workflows across HR, IT, and Finance. They are on track to hit $1B in AI-driven ARR by the end of 2026. The valuation at $130–$140 (post-split) is the most attractive it's been in years.RSI is deeply oversold (~21). Forward P/E is ~36x, down from its historical 70x+ levels. They have 97% customer Retention. It's the stickiest software in the enterprise. ADBE Im not that sure it looks like a value trap rn

Low_Grand4804

Adobe’s growth is clearly slowing despite solid execution. While Q4 showed improving usage metrics and a modest re-acceleration in Digital Media net new ARR, management’s FY26 guidance points to continued deceleration across the core business. Total ARR growth is guided to roughly 10% in FY26, down from an 11.5% exit rate in Q4, while revenue growth is expected to slow to about 9.4% from 10.5% in FY25. EPS growth is also guided lower, at roughly 12% versus 14% last year. Adobe’s forward outlook implies that overall growth is moderating rather than re-accelerating.

Rock_or_Rol

My friend works on data centers and says they’re a league above other rack systems. Cream of the crop to work with, and it was their previous system. I have some leaps I’ll hold for a year if I have to priced at $750 that should be worth $3,000 each by march. I actually trimmed my position today after buying Wednesday’s dip to chase the BTC momentum. I’m hoping for another chance to get in around $28-$30 for the feb earnings. Their ARR should be nuts The market bitches about their margins, but they’re expanding operations and investing in themselves. Amazon, Tesla, uber (not that SMCI had that early mover moat) all had horrible margins to begin with but they sought market share with competitive pricing instead. It’s the Silicon Valley approach. Competitive pricing to increase revenue and then frog boil margins in Idk, I get why people feel “snake bit,” but I think they’ll do well

Accomplished-Exit822

It’s more than just sending pics and messaging. They have Snap Map, which is very popular and they’re just about to monetize as well. They have Spotlight, which is like TikTok. They have Memories, which is cloud storage. They have Lenses, and they are the #1 AR company in the world by far. Let’s not forget all the data and access to 1 billion users. I mean, they just got paid $400 million by Perplexity and it’s not exclusive. Evan said he wanted to sign more deals with more AI companies. 17 million subscribers @ $750mm ARR, PLUS $6 billion in ad revenue. The numbers are no joke and they aren’t a 1-trick pony.

Fancy_Cattle_5914

I have skin in the game in 4 of the data center names because I think this sector will be one of the best for 2026 (APLD, IREN, CIFR, NBIS). I'm losing my IREN shares on Tuesday due to CC assignment, plan to put $25k more into NBIS, $25k more into HOOD instead of rebuying IREN. NBIS is by far my biggest position, the reason I chose them is they are a full-stack AI play that is much more than a data center. They have multiple subsidiaries that do important things such as AV Rides robots and Clickhouse for data analytics. The value of their subsidiaries - Clickhouse (4.2B) Avride($5B) and TripleTen ($500M) are valued in total $10B. If you add their cash on hand, plus what they are going to show they raised via their ATM report, that is about $6.5B, putting their total value around $16.5B, while their market cap is only $25B, and their ARR guidance is $8-$9B. This, in my opinion, makes their valuation disgustingly cheap. They've sold everything they have, and are rapidly building out data centers, so they can expand and sell to more hyperscalers. They have a handful of data centers being built/expanded right now, that they will sell this year, likely to the Mag 7. Each sale will greatly increase their ARR. Lastly, their leadership team is made up of a bunch of proven killers, who built Yandex and branched to this venture when it was broken up. No other data center name has the full stack, cheap valuation, and leadership combo that Nebius has. This company has all of the makings of a tech giant, and will eventually become a $100B company. I can't say that of any of the other data center names. IMO, a much better place for your money than SOFI. Hope this helps.

BluebirdStrange8177

Is PATH still a good play with the current trends with AI? The CEO seems to be offloading some stock, SAAS seems sort of flat. Their ARR growth is a positive sign though. I feel like this one is waffling based on general sentiment and people taking some small gains.

Maj0r_Payn3

They only had $90million ARR when it ran to $8. Now currently at $200miion ARR ($17m revenue in December alone and being cash flow positive that month. Most analysis price targets are between $9-$15 (3-5x). On big contract or audited finances showing them exceeding guidance and I could see this hitting $20+ (7x or more). $350million revenue for 2026* P/E of 15-20 —> $5-7billlion mc. Current MC is $1.3 billion current PE 7 (for $200milliom ARR=$17 million per month) SOUN has $180milliom predicted revenue and current market cap is 3X of rezolves. Almost $5billion MC with P/E of ~15 Check out RZLV for more DD

JuanGuillermo

https://www.databricks.com/company/newsroom/press-releases/databricks-surpasses-4-8b-revenue-run-rate-growing-55-year-over-year This is the primary source for the verified numbers ($4.8B ARR, 55% growth) released directly by the company on December 16, 2025. It confirms their cash flow positivity and the breakdown of their $1B+ AI business https://sacra.com/c/databricks/ Sacra estimates the metrics Databricks doesn't officially publish, such as Gross Margins (estimated around 74-80%), Net Dollar Retention (~140%), and burn rates. They update this page continuously with every funding round.

ScaleDry

How saturated is Figma in the US market? I feel like most of their growth and success going forward depends on international growth. Need to hit 10k & 100k ARR customers outside of the US.

NomadicTeacup

RIME’s strong ARR growth and big AI bets in logistics show this space is heating up. Worth keeping an eye on.

WiFiProphet

Nice alignment here - strong sector tailwinds plus visible ARR growth makes RIME hard to ignore at these levels.

GlitchBob432

Having both ARR growth and a concrete case study helps separate this from generic AI stories

bscher87

My question too. It already curb stomped Invision, SOM penetration is pretty thorough, revenue growth has slowed, and it’s currently trading at 18x ARR. Unless that valuation comes back down to Earth, this stock can ligma balls.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: FIGMA Direction: Up Prognosis: Accumulate Shares (User entry ~$34) Adobe's Regret Level: $20B was a discount **Summary:** Figma has evolved from a design tool to a complete product development platform (O365 for creativity). The "multiplayer" browser-native ecosystem creates an enterprise lock-in moat that single-player AI tools (Cursor, Lovable) can't breach. ARR has jumped from ~$400M (when Adobe bid $20B) to ~$1B+, making the current valuation look like a steal.

Relevant_Hat_8802

April 2023: pre-pivot... irrelevant? Its not even the same company anymore. August 25 - yes... they pioted. November 25: yes - they pivoted... Its a solid company wrapped in toxic financing partner. If this was a startup this would be doing a 20-30m round minimum given their forward ARR and blue chip partners. The risk you're taking here is that management manages to retire the obnoxiously toxic financing to find equity investor, retire toxic debt, recap. Just look at the contracts, all followed after months of pilots. This is going to 10x the second they restructure, and from there on easily 50x. If you want a full DD, message me. I've read every filing and all that is publicly available on RIME. Will write up a proper DD which I think makes an iron-case, but tbh I'm quite happy with it at this price. Once the 10k is out and the contract details are public this will 5x in any case, so quite happy to accumulate slowly until then.

AdSea2212

ARR growth and real expansions speak louder than buzzwords

AidenQuest51

ARR only grows like that when customers actually use the product, not just test it.

SockDiplomat

The ARR growth is notable, though it still needs to show consistency over time for broader re-rating

IWillMakeYouBlush

I’ll repost with these but here. Thoughts on agency MREITs with 12-20% yield like AGNC, NLY, DX, ORC, TWO, ARR etc., (and mortgage companies like RKT, LDI, UWMC.) My basic thesis is below but I’d like outside opinions since every friend I have from working in the mortgage industry has no opinions. Please tell me where I am wrong. Mortgages companies and Mortgage REITS (probably the best risk adjusted value niche in the market) • ⁠It affects so many people (and therefore our justifiably unpopular president’s popularity leading into midterms) and is driven by policy and regulation that the executive branch largely has control over. Trump has more • ⁠Mortgage spreads are historically wide when corporate spreads (ex ORCL) are tight • ⁠Deregulation for mortgages and banking • ⁠Lower Capital requirements means more lending • ⁠Funding/repo rates are gonna drop more with the federal • ⁠LT rates anchored with largest treasury buybacks of all time • ⁠MREITs yield 12-20% dividends so when rates fall and will look even more attractive on a relative basis. Meanwhile their higher net interest spread will make them more profitable and they should continue to appreciate. • ⁠Financial/Mortgage companies are full of paper pushers who do countless repetitive tasks whose jobs are the most easily replaced with AI. No edge AI sensors or insane computational energy needed for how straightforward these are. Headcount expense can plummet. Outside catalyst bet: - Declaring housing an emergency, Trump can order his new lackey at the fed is to start to buy mortgage bonds in some form of QE tightening spreads. Potential Risk - People may not want to move cuz of their mortgage rates and material costs can rise with the inevitable “run it hot” inflation. Also, K shaped economy and labor weakness.

SophisticatedLogic

I can almost picture a Big Short 2 scene- Michael Scott is dancing with an AI stripper in VR who tells him she is propped up by 10,000 GPU’s and needs $200 billion investment to show tits in next version, while the current ARR for the model is $20M/year. Yep. It’s a bubble. 💯

nomadichedgehog

There's a few things you're misunderstanding/conflating. The PIPE isn't happening via the Chardan shelf. The Chardan shelf is there to raise money by re-selling SONM shares on the market and to institutions. QMLS are a going concern and have no money to buy shares even if they wanted to buy them. The PIPE will therefore happen separately as an asset swap i.e. GPUs (financed by the Permian Labs protocol & Chardan shelf) in exchange for shares. However, the Chardan shelf is informative as to the number of shares QAI will receive as part of the asset swap. As you can see from the shelf, Chardan has the right to re-sell up to 19.44 million shares (as you correctly pointed out, this would be over time). Chardan are therefore permitted to create and re-sell a number of shares that mirrors the existing number of shares at the time the PIPE happens so that QAI doesn't become a minority shareholder. In other words: SONM shareholders currently = 1.4 million Expected QAI shareholding = 18 million 18/19.4 = 92.7%. This percentage is very close to what Party 2 were asking in the proxy statement. As for your concern about there not being enough funds, the funds will be there without any worry. The 5,800 B200s and B300s they have planned will cost roughly 290 million. If SONM need to raise $87 million (30% of 290), that would take them 87 trading days (they are capped at $1 million/day). Assuming the PIPE happens concurrently with the asset sale, that brings us to May 22. But to secure the allocation from NVIDIA and put down the deposit will not take that long at all - perhaps 1-2 months at most. Assuming a conservative, average trading price of say $20 following the PIPE re-rate, that translates to a dilution of 4.3 million shares, bringing the total number outstanding to around 23.7 million. Let's round it up to 25 million to be even more conservative. Based on the projected revenue of what 7,000 GPUs can bring in (around $200 million ARR), that still translates to a share price of somewhere between $80 and $140.

SockDiplomat

ARR + expansion news explains why liquidity suddenly showed up

Puzzleheaded-One-607

Thinking about a position in $RBRK. Growth is strong and they have solid ARR. not super cheap and a bit of gamble since negative EPS but seems like one of the most reasonably priced cybersecurity names

Prince_reaper13

if ARR actually tracks toward 15M this thing won’t stay here forever

PineapplePooDog

press release ARR is nice, I want to see it flow through filings and cash first

giblets9

In addition to the macro issues identified by the other commenter, there is just a significant execution risk inherent to over 10x revenue in just over a year. Imagine in the next quarterly earnings they start to guide for $5b in revenue ARR rather than $7-9b - still a massive increase but much lower than previously guided for. No one knows exactly what will happen, which is the risk.

Red_Devils_2402

Anyone pumping that $500M ARR target needs a reality check. In the first half of 2025, their actual revenue was around $6 million. To go from $6M to a $500M run rate in 18 months is basically unheard of in the SaaS world. They recently bought most of that revenue by acquiring Crownpeak and taking on $150M in debt to make the books look pretty. It’s not organic AI growth. it’s a desperate rollup strategy to hide the fact that their actual AI sales are basically zero. Plus, the crook CEO is Daniel Wagner.The same guy who ran Powa Technologies into the ground after claiming it was a $2.7B "unicorn." He used the exact same playbook there: hyping "massive global partnerships" that turned out to be non-binding fluff. The tech itself??Short reports already called them out for being a ChatGPT wrapper. You can't claim 96% margins while running a proprietary LLM unless you’re faking the math or just white-labeling OpenAI.

Red_Devils_2402

RZLV CEO is another Crook. People think they are honna achieve 500 million ARR and whatnot. Don’t touch these shits with a 10 feet pole

nomadichedgehog

Just wanted to update everyone given the QMLS direct listing news. Yes QMLS are doing a direct listing. No, that doesn't mean the thesis is dead. If anything, it is bullish and completes the final piece of the puzzle. Why? QMLS finances are dogshit. I read the 290 page s1 filing. They are burning through cash, they are not generating enough revenue to cover their debt and their auditors have them as a going concern - they will be almost bankrupt by the time the SEC approves their listing. To make this situation even more absurd, QMLS are direct listing as opposed to doing an IPO. In case you don't understand what that means, QMLS **cannot** raise ANY cash through public markets for at least 12 months after they list and they will have no underwriter. So how the hell do they plan on scaling their fleet of 5,800 GPUs they plan on deploying in 2026 (as per the filing) without cash? The answer can be found straight out of the APLD/Coreweave playbook. Just this week, [APLD announced a PIPE into EKSO](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-digital-spinning-cloud-business-161728999.html), where they'll be spinning off the cloud layer of the business into EKSO while retaining the GPUs in APLD. EKSO will then lease the GPUs from APLD. Similarly, Coreweave have an SPV where all their GPUs are financed by blackstone. They lease these GPUs in the event they go under blackstone can seize them. So it's fairly obvious to me what's happening here. QMLS will split its cloud layer from the GPUs, becoming effectively a software company. It will do a PIPE into SONM (as I've expected all along) and put the GPUs onto SONM's books. SONM can then tap into the existing Chardan shelf to build out the GPU fleet, supplemented by the Permian Labs protocol. Qumulus will then lease the GPUs from SONM as and when they have customers. As mentioned, they plan on deploying 5,800 B200-B300s in 2026 in addition to the 1,100 they already have. 7k GPUs puts them effectively at around $200 ARR, putting them at a 2 to 3.5 billion dollar valuation.

Big_Oil1060

# PAWN still a good buy? They have no debts, consisten ARR in a increasing market. Today it dropped 5% again. Is it still a good buy?

pepega9669

Lots of morons under your comment with zero clue but a lot of opinions. Tend to agree with you. If they just deliver on MSFT and META deals they would be trading at just 2x ARR with current stock price. And imo, AVride alone is worth what NBIS MC currently is. Very undervalued stock. Will explode.

narayan77

RZLV catalysts  13 Jan they will give a conference call on their 209 ARR end of 2025, and March 2026, earnings will be officially filed. This is a new company,  5 million earnings before June 2025, end of 2025 they have contracts for 209 million ARR, and have guided for 500 million ARR. This is a new company and wall street will only invest when the officiall earnings are filed, in my opinion.  Also short seller lies depressed the stock price, as gullible retail sold. A lot of insider ownership. 

Syllabub_Visual

Maybe not now, but tens of thousands of middle market transactions ($50-500m) occur each year, so it definitely can be done. Would involve probably building up a SAAS product to $20-30m ARR, which certainly isn’t out of the question. Did a little work at a few vc funds back in college so I do have a little experience with the whole startup landscape and although I’m not ready to raise funds yet, I’m hoping to get there in a few years once I have a little more professional experience. I’m looking towards where I want to be maybe 7-10 years from now and am not the type that’s gonna give up on creating the life I want even if I’m certainly at an extremely low point right now.

Dudensen

It was a great deal for Meta. Fastest startup to reach $100m ARR. It was looking to raise $2b at an IPO.

timeforachangee

They are pricing in massive debt and dilution with the big ARR gains. It comes down to how it executes for where the price lands. If it ends up debt ridden like crwv then it will trade like crwv. Otherwise it can go back to ATH. Perfect execution is not priced in until it happens especially with all this fear over data centers and debt.

No-Understanding9064

Starlink is the money and the moat, not sure exactly what the ARR is, but I highly doubt it supports anything close to that valuation. Then again, monopolizing global communication seems like a good business

Maestroszq

If we saw 5 contracts at $8M ARR, we could see ~15 to 20 next year IMO, at $15 ARR if the shipping lanes grew from 25 to 183. Shipping lanes growth factor: 7.32 $ ARR growth: 1.875 $ ARR / contract: $ 1.6M Contract growth: estimated 22.

Maestroszq

What’s even more interesting is the acceleration in growth; 5 contracts from June-December 2025, ARR $8M. Management estimates $15 ARR at year end of next year. If we look at the growth of contracted freight “volume” compared to previous year, it grew by 10x. This means that the underlying business (shipping lanes, miles serviced; the actual work is increasing at an even faster rate than the dollars granted by contracts $). This is ideal for a SaaS business, because it confirms what management said about the company, that there are network effects at play that will scale the metrics substantially going into 2026.

Expensive-Photo-5059

Fair point on the switching friction, but look at the numbers - they just posted 16% YoY revenue growth and their ARR hit $2.1B. At $150-200/core, companies are still finding it cheaper than Broadcom's new VMware pricing, and that 69 PE suggests the market expects this migration trend to accelerate even with the guidance miss.

Crazy_Donkies

Theyre a different company than they were. They now have partnerships with all major AI models.  These, with their robotic process stuff, make them definitely something to watch.  They're a good mix of consultant and SaaS/ARR, that i think will help them.  Finally why I'm watching, they forecasted 16% QoQ revenue increase.  I do think their positive assemetric risk is worth a small position.  I plan to limp in 2026 after I sell some stuff first of the year.  

nomadichedgehog

The 300 million valuation you are referring to is from the Vincerx letter of intent merger back in February, which ultimately failed. Before going into a breakdown it's worth noting that LOI valuations and market valuations do not correspond - the former will likely be far more conservative. Even if it did, we know QAI now has double the amount of GPUs it had back in March (from 550 to over 1,200) plus it has the 500 million facility from permian labs. So we're looking at a minimum of 600 million valuation based on the Vincerx filing alone, closer to 1 billion with the permian labs facility. In any case, I'd like to talk strictly about GPUs. They have the money to get to 15k GPUs within the next 6 months and around 4k GPUs within the first month of going public. 4,000 GPUs can generate roughly 200 million ARR, which gives them a conservative market value between 2 billion and 6 billion. If they hit the 15k GPUs by mid-2026 and the market forward-prices in the ARR (as it already is with AI infra companies), we could be looking at a 10-30 billion dollar company.

AutomaticFeed1774

i dont believe they have 200m in ARR. That would make them massively undervalued. where is evidence

masentracen

Those ARR numbers are hard to ignore if they start showing up consistently in filings

greenfairydusting

The recap release shows a clearer 2026 outlook, with Apex as a scalable SaaS product. ARR growth adds visibility, and U.S. adoption could matter.

Master-Sky-6342

It doesn't matter for the hyperscalers. They have good cash flow to fund this madness. For the worst case, they shove it down the throat of users, just Microsoft is doing by defaulting Copilot as on in its stack so that they can record part of their ARR as AI revenue.

Weak_Ostrich459

Its valuation is ~$25B with a little over $30B in contracts for the datacenter buildouts alone with ARR expected to be between $7-9B by the end of 2026, this year it was roughly $1B. They also own parts of multiple other companies valued in the billions, P/E does not matter in this market when they are consistently able to generate cash flow and keep their customer base unlike some other neoclouds.

Suspicious_Gap1

Not sure about next 12 months. I think it will take 2-3 quarters for maestro’s direct impact to show up in their revenue. Based on their recent earnings calls it already has indirect impact towards the stickiness of their ARR. So, I’m expecting palantir type growth in next 2-3 years.

Crazy_Donkies

The first car was little more than four wheels on a cart.  The first airplane flew 260 yards.  Three years ago ChatGPT came out and they're already at $20b in ARR.  If you appreciate the pace of change, and know what I know, your reddit-driven-chatbot-AI statement would be couched.