ARR

ThiccWubz

Yes easy 10x. They did 500M in revenue last year, projected 3-3.4B this year and have 9b ARR contracted over the next 12 months already. Extrapolate this growth out conservatively to 20B-30b arr over the next 3 years. If you cut their price/revenue in half from current levels, its a 600B company at 20B revenue. I think revenue is higher than 20-30B 5 years from today

Cozyteammate

People chase NBIS IREN, but they're already been discovered I look smaller Neoclouds: DGXX WYFI BRUN. These are also top of Neoclouds, great execution (maybe not good as Nebius) but still positioned for great run (deals secured, strong cash, no debt, good track record - underpromise and overdeliver) and still undervalued in proportional to ARR/Secured Deals.

Ok_Ad798

Short interest sits at 39.16 million shares, or ~9.82% of outstanding shares. (sec) That's relatively modest — nowhere near GRPN's 53% or CAR's 54%+ levels. However, short volume has averaged 41.19% of total daily reported volume over the past 30 days (TipRanks) , suggesting active, persistent shorting activity. The Bull Case for a Squeeze Rezolve has 650+ enterprise clients, 27.96% institutional ownership, and guidance to reach $500M in ARR by 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to turn positive, and the company has strong operating leverage despite GAAP losses from non-cash expenses. (sec) The stock is up +130% over the past 52 weeks (sec) , and rising institutional ownership combined with short pressure creates a classic squeeze setup if positive catalysts materialize. The Bear Case RZLV lost $101.41M on just $46.8M in revenue over the last 12 months. Share count has ballooned 63.73% in one year — massive dilution. Return on equity is -98.67%, and the company has a current ratio of just 0.67 — meaning it can't cover short-term obligations. (sec)

Sofo1984

Yes I just made a post about this yesterday on penny stocks. Over 99% of the shorts are bought up and the borrow fee rate has been going up 4-5% daily. The price has been staying relatively stable despite all the attacks from the shorts. Right now it is primed for a squeeze. ARR is growing rapidly and they already reported more revenue in their first quarter than they did all last year. Analysts are projecting it will go to $10-11 dollars by the end of the year.🚀🚀🚀 Insiders and Blackrock have been buying up shares the last few months. The CEO already stated that he wasn’t gonna dilute for day to day operating costs. All the negative stuff you hear about the CEO came from the Fuzzy Panda short report last fall. I have 10k shares atm @ $2.55 average. I believe this one is gonna surpass the $8 mark it hit last year in a very short period of time. Spread the word, it just needs a small catalyst to get the ball rolling!! Also, it’s looking like RILY is one to keep an eye on as well

MDthrowItaway

I baught NBIS because the CEO was supremely confident they were going from some miniscule ARR to i believe 1B by the end of 2025 in one of his earnings reports. I had kind of following NBIS bc the team came from Yandex that was essentially the Russian Google with a visionary leader that had multiple lines of business but divested everything except for the cloud/data center business due to the Ukranian war (i was actually looking into Yandex before the war started). I went in with conviction hearing Arkadys conviction on one of his quarterly conference calls (maybe q2 or q3 2025). Had a starter position of 1k in the high 20s and baught another 1.4k in the low 40s. Its now grown to one of my biggest positions.

Few_Economics_8176

I don’t think Adobe is a bad buy at these levels for a 30-50% return, I don’t think we’ll ever hit the highs of 600-700 again, but I could see 350-400 if earnings steadily grow, one thing I really like is the buybacks at these levels, management over the last quarter allocated $2.5B to repurchases, and seeing as a Adobe’s share price has been between $260-225 this quarter it’s much more accretive, there recent 10-Q disclosed 404.2m shares outstanding, I think management will buyback another 10-12m shares this quarter. Net cash position, Fcf hit $10b annually, and revenue growth reaccelerated to 12%, if revenue grows and ARR is growing faster than the 10.2% figure management put for guidance for FY26 then I’d be happy, also Adobe Express is gaining traction from what’ve seen and FireFly’s IP indemnification/protection is very strong. Most people say Firefly is shit but it seems to be improving capability wise.

1Commentator

You do the math on a 100 million person mars settlement. The ARR on tax collection alone! /s

SucklemyNuttle

> Anthropic is out there high-fiving themselves over $10B in revenue. While true, they're at a $45B ARR if you look at their most recent months ARR and it's reasonable they'll hit $100B end of year. That's pretty incredible.

dansdansy

They're also listing upfront enterprise token purchases as "ARR". There's no guarantee they keep buying tokens.

CrayonsForBilly

Fair challenge, worth addressing properly rather than dismissing. I'd say the catalyst for an increase in price from here is the stop to dilution. **The fundamentals that do exist:** * 87% gross margins: higher than Salesforce (74%) and ServiceNow (78%) * Fortune 500 customers renewing at 130%+ ARR expansion * Gartner Magic Quadrant Visionary: independently verified, not a paid recognition * Google Cloud featured them as a case study at Google Cloud Next 2026 * $12.3M in cash confirmed in a signed SEC 10-Q filing, equal to the entire market cap * 98% recurring subscription revenue **The fundamentals that are genuinely weak:** * Revenue declining: $7.14M in 2024 to $4.58M in 2025 * Net loss of $13.47M against $4.58M revenue * 35 employees is operationally thin for Fortune 500 clients * No demonstrated path to profitability in reported results yet So it's not junk, it has real customers, real product validation, and exceptional unit economics. But it's also not a company with clean financials. It's a company mid-transition that hasn't yet proven the recovery in reported numbers. Whether you agree with the thesis or not, calling it junk ignores 87% gross margins, Gartner recognition, and Fortune 500 customers paying real money and expanding contracts. Those are fundamentals. The financial trajectory is the legitimate concern and Q2 results in August will either confirm or deny the recovery.

MaxMillion888

Im saying if I built the financial model, I would assign 0 growth in valuing that component. Your points 1-3 are absolutely valid. But winning these kind of mandates are highly unpredictable and typically have very long lead times. When they do win one, it changes the ARR profile, and they deserve a pop in share price for when they do win one. But for forecasting purposes, if you had to build a forecast, on what basis would you build it? how do you predict how many new FIs will start? how do you predict of the small/medium sized FIs, how many are nearing end of life with current contract (logical time to assess vendors) and % chance of winning over these existing mandates?

KRock1287

Everyone talking about wanting the next NBIS CRWV IREN etc. Then you have ALP trading as a micro cap leasing out their first NVDA GPU cluster for an ARR of 16 million. Now of course you’re going to say ONLY 16 million? Yes, but the stock is literally .34 a share with a tiny float. If this gets traction or they continue to purchase and lease Blackwell GPUs, this could move quick.

cryptocraze_0

i dont think we have even started to use AI... Anthropic who is number one token seller for programming AI just reported an ARR of 44 Billion, another record... growing faster than 10X a year.

uncleAW

Look elsewhere.... this thing is likely trash. They can't compete with Amazon or Walmarts Ai shopping agents. Not to even mention what Meta or other bigs might bring to shopping. Either they missed their window to scale or they never had a product to begin with. Contracts just did not materialize at the same rate as their claimed ARR. Seemingly most of their ARR numbers were ported in from companies they acquired not from organically selling their Rzlv ai "bot". Super suspicious of this company at this point. There are better tables at the Casino.

Hartywoodlebart

Yeah, I do like the aspect of APG providing a service that is required by law regulations. Will ensure that there is always a need for the safety services. The expected ARR also looks good. I quite like the look of FPS, but I'm quite put off by that extraordinary P/E figure. I assume that it's so high because FPS only IPO'd in Feb and it's in a heavy investment cycle which I'm sure inflates the PE quite a bit. After some reading I saw some slightly more reassuring figures - if earnings grow at 50% annually, that 489x P/E becomes roughly 65x in two years and maybe 30x in three, which for a high-growth infrastructure compounder in a structural demand cycle isn't unreasonable.

Crazy_Donkies

Dude get an original thought and get yourself a spreadsheet and a finance education.  NBIS is already 40% adjusted GM on $1.4b ARR. AMZNs cloud margins are unaffected fromAI and not dropping materially.  GPU rentals and token revenue is climbing be measure.  Lifetime value of GPU revenue over cost is already 9x, or 90% GP. $3 per hour x 24h x 365d x 7y / $20k average (average gpu cost between custim and NVDA).   AND DONT start with GPU lives.  Theyre already proven to by 4 to 5 years.  Look it up. Im done. 

Crazy_Donkies

Whatever you want to think.  You do not at all understand where AI is going nor capable of. I'd bet revenue from AI per year will be in the multiple trillions per year within the next 7 years.  Answer engine and AI revenue is probably already $400 billion in ARR, and we havent even gotten to the actual big inflection point for creation, agents, and more. Assume probably 6 billion people per year will directly and indirectly contribute $400 or $500 per year.  Maybe $1000 per person.  Between work licenses, education, schools, private education, creation, movie production,  research, healthcare research, drug creation, custom drugs, job replacement, analysis and more.  Literally endless. You absolutely dont understand the scope of where this is going and why hyperscalers are investing so heavily.  They are the only ones that can afford it and they see the opportunity.  Them and firms like NBIS see it. E.g. even if Africa spent $300 per person living in poverty in an effort to give each of them customized, K to 12 education, that's $150 billion alone.  Before anything else.   You simply see it for what it is today and nothing more. Good luck.

Crazy_Donkies

Investments are not revenue. Investments are recorded to the balance sheet. Revenue is from the sale of goods or services, which is very-much revenue from AI for AI companies. If you're talking about circular transactions, that's not a thing; GAAP and FASB specifically look for it and arms-length transactions. Staying on the subject: Anthropic is over $44 billion in ARR from AI sales, and Anthropic didn't start generating revenue until 2023. That's ZERO to $44 billion in 2.5 years. Are you not understanding the magnitude of this? They grew to the size of QUALCOMM in 2.5 years! People are numb to what this means. You included. GOOG, AMZN, MSFT all reported record backlog and significant growth to their AI cloud services. They're explicitly reporting insatiable demand. To many this implies, had Athropic had more compute, they would be BIGGER! GOOG, AMZN, MSFT have received investments from zero companies or entities. AI is generating real significant returns revenue from AI. Anthropic isn't recording investments from GOOG and AMZN as revenue. It's not a thing.

Orki13

Docn - Digital ocean Transformed from a cloud provider to an all-in ai platform for start ups. They raised their guidance to 50% for 2027, their ARR for ai customers just rose over 220%. Smart Money bought crazy in last few months, but I cannot read about them in subreddit. I think they will catch mainstream attention any time soon. Even though they quadrupled last year, still much room for growth.

lionlxh

I am not an expert in software stocks, but let me give it a try. \------ Even if there's no AI, Adobe is in a severe business **crisis**: **Canva** almost killed InDesign and Illustrator, 4B ARR, **+46%** YoY. Blackmagic Design (**DaVinci Resolve** \+ Hardwares) took away a portion of PR/AE's professional user share, 0.6B Sales, **\~+15%** YoY. **Figma** completely killed XD, 1.4B Sales, **+35%** YoY. **CapCut** (ByteDance) took away PR/AE's low-to-mid-end user share, 0.8B Sales, **+31%** YoY. (BTW, Bytedance has 30B CapEx + R&D, Adobe has 4.5B.) **Affinity** took away a portion of Photoshop's share, 100M Sales, one-time purchase. **CSP** took away a portion of Photoshop's share, 40M ARR, **+26%** YoY. BTW, there is **Krita** which is FOSS. (Think about what Blender and Godot did to the industry.) **Procreate** almost killed Fresco, 30M Sales, **\~+12%** YoY. Lightroom has no obvious single competitor, but in reality, it's being carved up, and it's basically non-existent on mobile. \------ If we talk about AI: Firstly, all of Adobe's tools are **NOT agent-friendly**. Figma and Krita are the best interm of agent-friendly. Canva is a disaster. Express is better than Canva and has the potential. But the problem is, Adobe was afraid that Express would hurt their traditional tools. So they deliberately withholded core functions. The Firefly image model has been destroyed by **GPT Image, Google Nano Banana, Bytedance Seedream, Alibaba Wan/Qwen-Image/Z-Image/Ovis-Image, Flux**... **Copyright compliance** (which is firefly's only advantage) looks like a moat, but it's **not**. **R&D capability** is the real key. If a model provider can make a good copyright non-compliant, they can make a copyright compliance one too, the reverse is not true. The video model (Rephrase.ai) has been destroyed by **Google Veo, ByteDance Seedance, Kuaishou Kling, Alibaba Wan**. The key here is, who has the **DATA**. (Alibaba might look weird, but they have Youku and Alibaba Pictures.) In principle, Meta, Sony, Tencent, Netflix also have high-quality video data, and might also enter the game. Adobe obviously has **NOTHING**, and it's physically impossible to compete. Firefly now had no choice but to integrates most of the US models above, but first, **the model providers siphon off the core profits**, and second, Canva integrates the **exact SAME models,** so Firefly has no moat. \------ Talking about Adobe: **Creative Cloud**, 14.2B, +12% The total revenue of the competitors mentioned above exceeds 7B, and creative tools have had a massive amount of **market share taken away**. Note a very serious thing: Creative overall is constantly **raising prices**, roughly estimated to have increased by 8%\~14% in '25, which means Creative Cloud's **organic growth is between -3.7%\~1.8%**. >e.g. Creative Cloud All Apps ($59.99) -> Creative Cloud Pro ($69.99) Document Cloud, 3.5B, **+15%** This is good news, Adobe PDF is eating away DocuSign's (NASDAQ: DOCU) share, which only has an +8% growth rate. Experience Cloud, 5.8B, +9.3% Competing heavily with Salesforce and Google. CRM is also considered the SaaS industry most easily replaced by AI. \------ Then again, as long as the price is right, even if growth is 0%, it can be considered. At this price, there are two ways we can bet on this: 1. **Kill itself**: Develop modern web-based applications from scratch—agent-friendly, high performance, modern features that meet current needs, completely backward incompatible, with a user experience no worse than Canva and CapCut—and compete directly with its own old products, including Pr and AE. If so, there might be a **massive valuation repair**. Because growth fixes DCFs. 2. Accept reality and **give up the struggle**. As long as management gives up the struggle, cuts expansionary spending (half of R&D, half of marketing, a quarter of G&A), and starts epic buybacks + dividend payouts, you will not only get these **shareholder returns** but also a **valuation boost**. To give two examples: **Philip Morris (MO)** and **Sage Group (LON:SGE)**. After the former started with 0% growth in 2018, its dividend-adjusted CAGR is 18%, and the latter is 16%. But the premise here is proving that it is truly **NOT IN DECLINE** but zero-growth (so that the DCF model will not give a result of **ZERO** ). Although the latter is a "tech stock," its **business model** is very solid. But this is not 100% guaranteed. For **Check Point (CHKP)**, the company's net profit growth from 2014 to 2024 was 4.5%, the share cancellation rate was 4.25%, and the company's dividend-adjusted stock price CAGR was indeed roughly 10% — meaning almost no valuation expansion. If counted from 2014 to present, the CAGR is 5.4%. The worst examples are the vast majority of SaaS stocks that dropped 80%, because hardly any SaaS companies that failed to compete can manage to stay flat without declining; 99% of the time, a **sudden death** would happen. Personally, I don't think it's worth it. **High growth + low valuation** = a lot of margin for error. **Low growth + low valuation** = opening a mystery box. Unless the business model is so solid that it doesn't even look like SaaS (like Sage Group/RELX Plc, but they're not cheap at all).

Strange_Attitude2085

Yes there has been a step change in the past 8 month. In particular, starting the end of last year, people started to deploy agents. You should look up harness engineering. That’s how hallucination is solved. It is not by having better model, but restricting existing model’s access to select information and tooling so that hallucination is under control. If you want proof, ever since this happened anthropic’s ARR went up almost 10 times in 5 months

InertBorea

>OpenAI is also above 30 billion ARR. The revenue is now there to justify the AI market, and this revenue is ahead of even the optimistic projections. >This means that demand has increased beyond what anyone thought. Anthroipic just signed a 5 billion a year deal with xai for 300 mw of Hopper and Blackwell mix.  Thee numbers are literally made up. Useless. Literally hopium and copium. "Let's take our best month and just pretend growth will magically continue similarly for 11 more months." It's fantasy. Anthropic buying xAI datacenter usage should read like a warning sign. It means xAI built out a massive datacenter and can't find any use for it aside from renting it out.

TechTuna1200

And the demand for AI is there. Anthropic ARR is 50B. That's 50x from 1.5 years ago. No other company has grown so much is so little time. A 50B revenue company that is only 5 years old. During the dotcom the majority of the fibers laid out were dark fibers. Today, the datacenters are at max utilization.

liamashley

both your annual revenue and ARR are jumping 40-45bn per year towards 2030 just for an extra GW coming online. So in 2027 it's showing at 10-15b per GW, then by 2030 it's 45b per GW. I'm aware there's more economics at play as a company scales, but at the simplest level... the revenue per GW shouldnt 4x?

liamashley

projected ARR jumping $45b per Gw towards the end? What on earth is this chart.

Ell2509

I will, but you're going to have to actually want it changed. The post is well-written and confidently wrong in three specific places, and the thing it doesn't engage with at all is the part that actually closes the argument. Let me take your three points in order and then add the one you didn't make. 1. "The money is already here." The money is moving, which is not the same thing. Look at the structure rather than the headline numbers. Nvidia committed $100bn to OpenAI in September 2025, structured as tranches tied to GPU deployment milestones. OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed most of it returns to Nvidia via lease arrangements. NewStreet estimated that for every $10bn Nvidia invests in OpenAI, it sees roughly $35bn in GPU purchases or lease payments. Microsoft's $13bn into OpenAI got spent on Azure. Google's $40bn into Anthropic preceded a $200bn five-year Anthropic compute commitment to Google Cloud. Oracle is building ~$300bn of capacity for OpenAI under Stargate, financed against contracts that assume OpenAI scales from ~$25bn ARR to ~$280bn by 2030. This is vendor financing at telecom-1999 scale. Lucent peaked at $37.9bn revenue in 1999, crashed 69% by 2002, never recovered. Cisco's vendor-financing book blew up at the same time for the same reason: a supplier's reported demand was the supplier's own balance sheet recycled through the customer. Pets.com is the wrong analogue. Lucent and Nortel are the right one. The infrastructure they built got used. The equity holders were wiped out anyway. Those are two separate claims and the bull case keeps conflating them. 2. "Productivity isn't a narrative, it's in the numbers." It isn't. Not at the level you're claiming. MIT's State of AI in Business 2025 — 150 executive interviews, 350 employee survey, analysis of 300 deployments — found 95% of enterprise generative AI pilots delivered no measurable P&L impact. Only 5% produced significant value. You can argue the methodology is narrow (six-month window, P&L-only definition of success). Fine. But you cannot simultaneously claim productivity is so visible it's in the earnings calls and dismiss the only large-N study of corporate deployment as too pessimistic. Pick one. The macro number is worse. Acemoglu — who just won a Nobel for working on exactly this — projects a 1.1–1.6% total GDP gain over ten years from AI. Roughly 0.05% annually. He estimates ~5% of tasks are cost-effectively automatable at current prices. McKinsey calls this the "genAI paradox": fast tech breakthroughs, slow productivity gains, exactly as in prior tech waves. And the market has noticed. Cloudflare announced a 20% workforce cut on 7 May 2026, explicitly framed as a shift to an "agentic AI-first operating model." Earnings beat. Revenue up 34% YoY. Stock down 23% the next day. The market is no longer reflexively bullish on AI restructuring announcements. That's new, and it's three weeks old. Worth catching up on. 3. "No one has a credible pop thesis." Yes they do. You haven't read it. The mechanism, in order: OpenAI's revenue trajectory undershoots the 10x-by-2030 ramp embedded in its compute commitments. Oracle takes simultaneous write-downs on stranded data-centre capacity and its OpenAI equity stake (same counterparty, same exposure, twice). Nvidia's vendor-financed demand contracts at the NewStreet multiplier running in reverse. CoreWeave-style GPU-collateralised debt repricies — Epoch AI puts inference cost decline at 50–200x per year, meaning the collateral depreciates faster than the debt schedules assume. Hyperscaler capex guidance gets cut. Multiples compress on the names that drove 40%+ of S&P returns in 2024-25. The trigger is a single quarterly miss at OpenAI. The timeline is 12–24 months. The dominoes are visible on Oracle's balance sheet now — Moody's already flagged it, the stock already moves on OpenAI's quarterly commentary rather than Oracle's own performance, Oracle is reporting negative free cash flow for the first time since 1992. This isn't speculative. It's printed. Sequoia's David Cahn has been writing the arithmetic up publicly for two years. Current AI capex requires roughly $600bn in annual end-customer revenue to clear; the ecosystem produces $50–100bn. Bain modelled the most aggressive plausible adoption scenario and got $1.2tn in revenue against $2tn required to break even. Goldman's baseline has $7.6tn of cumulative AI capex through 2031. You asked for a mechanism. Sequoia, MIT, Moody's, Bain, Goldman and the Bank of England have all published one. The mechanism is in the open. You're asking to be shown the door you're standing in front of. The point you didn't make, which is the actual problem. Here's the contradiction nobody on the bull side wants to name plainly: The valuations require AI to substitute for white-collar labour at scale. That is the only revenue trajectory that closes the gap. Dario Amodei — running one of the labs whose valuation depends on this — has publicly warned AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10–20% within one to five years. Citrini Research modelled the macro consequence in February 2026 and moved the Dow 800 points in a day: mass white-collar unemployment, defaults across the $13tn residential mortgage market, ~38% equity correction, deflationary spiral. Block announced a 40% workforce cut later the same week. You cannot have it both ways. Either: (a) AI delivers the productivity gains required to justify the capex — which eliminates a meaningful share of the wage income that funds the SaaS subscriptions, cloud workloads, enterprise contracts, and advertising revenue that justified the capex in the first place. The revenue collapses from the demand side rather than the supply side. (b) AI doesn't deliver those gains — the revenue collapses directly. (c) The state intervenes massively (UBI, redistribution, retraining at unprecedented scale) to preserve aggregate demand — in which case the political economy of AI is unrecognisable from where it sits today and current cash-flow projections are meaningless. There is no fourth door. The bull case implicitly assumes AI is transformative enough to produce trillions in new revenue but not transformative enough to gut its own customer base. That is not a coherent position. It is a marketing slogan. Citadel Securities, defending against the Citrini scenario, argued that displacing white-collar work would require orders of magnitude more compute than is currently deployed, and that if marginal compute cost rises above marginal labour cost, substitution simply stops. That argument is actually sound. Notice what it concedes: the AI economy hits a hard ceiling well before the revenue figures embedded in current valuations are reached. The strongest bull rebuttal defends against apocalypse by surrendering the bull case. History rhymes. You're right about that. You've just misidentified the verse. It isn't 2000. It's 1999, with better underlying technology, a smaller cluster of counterparties sitting on both sides of every large contract, and an internal contradiction between revenue model and end-state that the 1999 cohort didn't have. I'm not telling you AI isn't transformative. I'm telling you "transformative" and "the equity holders make money on the way through" are two separate claims, and you haven't argued for the second one. You've assumed it.

Khuat56

I understand your excitement my bullishness is hitting ATHs as well but I find your forecast way to optimistic. After 2026 i wouldn't use ARR multiple anymore. After that only revenue, EBIDTA, EBIT, earnings, etc. I do believe there will be way more dilution. I assume will have between 280m and 330m EY2027 outstanding shares. After 2027 is really hard to predict anything because of quickly changing variables. The prices per GW could vary between $10 - ∞ after 2027. The only thing I know for certain is that Nebius will try their best.

Old-Commission2782

📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 • Adj. EPS: $0.10 (Est. $0.06) ✅ • Revenue: $333.4M (Est. $316.0M) ✅ • Non-GAAP operating income: $52.1M • Free cash flow: $88.6M • Net dollar retention rate: 139% • Paid customers: ~690K (+54% YoY) ⠀ 🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 • Q2 Revenue: $348M–350M (Est. $329.5M) ✅ • FY26 Revenue: $1.422B–1.428B (Est. $1.37B) ✅ • FY26 Non-GAAP operating income: $125M–135M ⠀ 📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 • Revenue growth accelerated for the second consecutive quarter • Strong AI monetization traction from Figma Make, MCP and Weave • Enterprise expansion remained strong with $100K+ ARR customers up 48% YoY • ~60% of $100K+ ARR customers used Figma Make weekly in Q1 • MCP weekly active users in Figma Design grew 5x QoQ

PaddysPub79

How you feeling after earnings? The price movement stung a bit. I'm boring more at these $25 and under prices. If they could just accelerate the ARR growth, everything else would fall into place I think.

bogey843

https://preview.redd.it/rfwucvvuz11h1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=83e794717d65fe25351abfd2c251885e96ae4691 Low float AI play $ALP has a $6M market cap and just announced $16.1M ARR tied to Nvidia B200 AI infrastructure. That’s 2.5x market cap in recurring revenue 👀 $6.3M market cap $3.2M free-float market cap Only 11.9M float

just-another-post

Your entire bull thesis of 1500 words boils down to: 1) Anthropic ARR is up 4.5x in four months, so it will be up 12,400% end of year because “trust me bro”, and 2) There is an 18% arbitrage opportunity hiding in plain sight because “look at this table full of financial data that my LLM definitely didn’t hallucinate”

NorthcoteTrevelyan

The spend amounts to about $4B ARR, so 10% of total. A lot of noise into the accuracy of that, but if it was a representative sample, it would be amazing. It is not however... But it is kind of for mavens so it is a great intersection to see how popular new model launches are when they come. Of course it is flawed. That is alternative data. It is indicative though. It also speaks to whether much cheaper, nearly as good models will eat into Anthropic. Resounding no so far.

Strange_Attitude2085

Because we are getting more data on anthropic’s ARR and we also know that OAI is better positioned than anthropoic since they secured more compute with similar product. The idea is that the economy of AI agents, especially for the anthropoic OAI and Gemini is no at least partly de-risked. So it’s not just that RVI has OAI, it’s also that OAI is perceived to have much better r/r

ContextFew721

Nvidia will bring in about 300B in revenue this year. It will be 400-500 next year. Their equity buys in openAI and anthropic this year (which have appreciated 2-3X Btw) are like 40B combined, somewhere in that realm? What is the argument for where the rest of that came from? What is the counter argument to Anthropic 10Xing their ARR in like 5 months? They could be at 100B yearly revenue within a year or two. Do you expect them to continue to need to borrow at this rate forever?

MeowTheMixer

That's a really fair point. Their value is assuming their ARR is consistent long term, and that's a really big IF. I personally believe their spending more than they'll get back on AI, but when does that become the standard view point?

Vegetable-Big3545

BENIS 9.3B cash raised target ARR mfker rip my ccs

SkruszonyBankster

I have a few different portfolios. One with mutual funds that started in 1999 has ARR of 9%. Another with just stocks, since 2011, has 13.8%. The main wisdom is to be diversified and avoid panic selling - the four massive selloffs: dot com, GFC, 2011 and Covid showed that it’s harder to end the world than most people think. My biggest single losses were in junk bonds where companies just went bust and all the investment was gone. So, I just never invest in bonds, ever, not even when I’ll be 90 years old.

ertri

Ok because in federal court they said they’d made “greater than $5 billion” in March, which tells me less than $6 billion or they’d have said that.  So if they hit $14 billion ARR in February, they’d made less than $4 billion prior to the start of this year. And then they doubled revenue in two months? I mean maybe but I need someone to go hold up a big citation needed sign every time these idiots speak 

ProudMatter9227

I don't mess with short dated options, so these are just my picks (if I did). Comparing NBIS and CoreWeave is a difficult one. CoreWeave is "GPUs for rent so you can do your own AI", their growth has been massive, and their net margins are amazing. Their debt is highly concerning (interest they are paying is gonna suck the oxygen out of the room). Their market is a bit crowded, and we will likely see more neos pop up (as lots of bitcoin mining companies start outsourcing their GPUs). NBIS is an EU based company. Their total addressable US market is the same as Weave's, but EU's whole "Sovereign AI" will dictate EU based companies are hosting the data. So, NBIS is going to be in a prime position to have the lion's share of the entire EU market. NBIS provides AI blueprints, frameworks, infrastructure, software, and the actual orchestration agents -- coreweave has GPU health detection software for customer use. NBIS is also invested in a few other software and robotics businesses. If rev continues to grow at 65% QoQ, and ARR hits $2 b-nuts -- it moons. They have a project in Missouri that needs to stay on track, or they got a capacity/power issue, but they do an incredible job at managing debt. VERY well run.

Arabian_Goggles_

Many of the dotcom companies had all hype and zero earnings. Today the biggest tech companies have earnings to back up their valuations with many of them showing accelerating revenue growth. People might point to OpenAI and Anthropic but even they have been growing revenue at extraordinary rates. Anthropic is already at ~45 billion ARR and I assume OpenAI is probably pretty close to that as well.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Investments aren’t counted as revenue. So Anthropic’s exponential rise in revenue from $1B ARR to $44B ARR does not come from one of the “circular deals”. They do give the investment money back to the Hyperscalers to rent compute which then funnels down to infrastructure plays like Nvidia. But the growth those companies are seeing are much larger than what has been invested into OpenAI and Anthropic. Sometimes “circular deals” are just investments in fast growing companies to help them succeed.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

I can agree that this year is a do or die year. But I also believe that Anthropic’s ARR numbers ($9B to $44B in 4 months) is also proving that there is a path to profitability. It’s officially the most ridiculous ramp of revenue for any company in humanity. Profit margins for hyper scalers have also started to move back up as of this earnings season. So it sure is starting to look like the investments are paying off.

idontevenknowwhats

Nvidia — $60.9B FY2024 revenue, up 122% YoY Microsoft Azure — targeting $25B in AI revenue for FY2026; Azure grew 33% YoY Google Cloud — $17.7B in Q4 2025, up 48% YoY Amazon (AWS) — net income surged 77% to $30.3B; AWS revenue grew 28% Alphabet — profit jumped 81% to $62.6B last quarter OpenAI — ~$1.08B/month, $13B ARR as of mid-2025 Anthropic — $30B annualized run-rate reported early 2026 Databricks — ~$333M/month, $4B ARR as of Q2 2025 Palantir — $2.87B annual revenue, 36% YoY growth in Q4 2024 Cursor — ~$42M/month ARR with fewer than 20 employees ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

MitchCurry

Huge FY guidance raised by DDOG, 5.9% at the midpoint. For comparison, they raised FY'25 guidance in Q1 earnings by 1.3%. Customers with an ARR >$100,000 is accelerating, as is topline growth. NRR increasing as well. Firing on all cylinders. Up 23% PM as I type this.

XYHopGuy

> This year Anthropic’s ARR has exploded from $9B to over $44B today, their gross margins on their inference infrastructure have increased from 38% to over 70% over the same period. Anthropic has recently become very profitable. Currently are limited by compute, as they were much more conservative than OpenAI. Hence the compute deal they just secured with xAI. OpenAI otoh is still figuring things out and might fail. They bet on consumer, which has not worked out. The capacity they've secured will still exist, and the demand is very much still there. Try using Claude code during 9-5 PST vs 11p-7a. It's painfully obvious. Google/Gemini is clearly showing outsized returns as well.

_Chicken_Chaser_

I bought in today right before close. I read earnings last night and today. I really liked these metrics. Also, CEO mentioned two use cases of their embedded AI achieving meaningful metrics with Openreach and Lufthansa. AI ARR growth: +66% YoY AI backlog growth: +78% YoY AI included in 100% of enterprise CXone deals International growth: +30%

ptexpat

Good results from TRMB with revenue growth accelerating in Q1 and they also raised guidance for the full-year. Would have expected a better response from the market but they seem to be dragged along the saasocalypse train. # Executive summary * Delivered strong Q1 results with revenue of $940 million, up 12% year-over-year, and EPS of $0.79, exceeding guidance. * Raised full-year guidance for revenue, EPS, and ARR, reflecting confidence in continued growth. * Continued execution of connect and scale strategy, leveraging AI to drive productivity and expand addressable markets. * Monetization of AI capabilities advancing through hybrid models, consumption-based offerings, and product tiering. # Financial highlights * Q1 revenue reached $940 million, up 12% year-over-year; ARR at $2.435 billion, up 13%. * Gross margin expanded to 71%; EBITDA margin at 27.4%, up 150 basis points from prior year. * Free cash flow was $275 million; leverage ratio at 1.1x, well below long-term target. * EPS of $0.79, $0.07 above midpoint and above high end of guidance. # Outlook and guidance * Full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint raised to $3.875 billion, representing 8% growth. * EPS guidance increased to $3.55; ARR growth expected at 13% and EBITDA margin at 29.7%. * Q2 guidance: revenue midpoint $950 million (7.5% growth), EPS $0.80, ARR growth 13%, EBITDA margin 27.7%. * On track to meet 2027 targets: $3B ARR, $4B revenue, 30% EBITDA margin.

MitchCurry

Platform Solutions nearly doubling and counter-drone revenue up 300% y/y for Axon. ARR up 35%. Future contracted bookings up 44% to $14.3B. Axon seems unstoppable right now. Did their usual FY guidance raise (they like to sandbag so they can raise each quarter), this time to 31% at the midpoint from 28.5%. Down 2% in the AH is nuts.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Their revenue growth is exponential. $1B ARR to $9B last year. $9B to $44B in the first 4 months of this year.

grackychan

Adobe $ADBE Firstly, AI is great for ideation. It's excellent at concept work, giving you plenty of choices, variations, options. It does not replace professional design work and finished product delivery to a high standard whatsoever. Even if we reached a state where image and video generation models could take you 90% of the way to a finished product, that 10% is still going to take professional tools like what ADBE offers to get it over the finish line. Secondly, Adobe isn't just sitting on their hands; they are quickly deploying AI integration into their software suites. You aren't going to reach for another tool for gen-AI when Adobe is building an "all-in-one", like they always have. Ideate, generate, directly edit and manipulate creative inside ADBE. Third, ADBE is growing revenues at double digits YoY. Adobe’s AI-influenced ARR (existing or upgraded Adobe subscriptions where AI is embedded into the offering) grew from “over $3.5B” exiting FY2024 to “surpassed $5B” by Q3 FY2025, implying at least \~43% growth in less than a year, and by the FY2025 exit / early FY2026 setup Adobe said total new AI-influenced ARR exceeded one-third of its overall book of business.

Clock-Best

I got burned already once by it.  I see a solid ARR prediction and a decent plan but that’s all about it.  The CEO hasn’t been the most trustworthy and they diluted at the absolute worst time which furthers my distrust in them. I want to believe so bad but they make it so hard which tells me to keep away. 

BaronDavis12

$DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings reported strong Q1 2026 growth while reshaping its balance sheet and credit capacity.  Revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $257.9 million, and ARR reached $1.03 billion, also up 22%.  AI Customer ARR surged to $170 million, a 221% increase, and Million+ Dollar Customer ARR grew 179% to $183 million, underscoring rapid large-customer and AI adoption.  Adjusted EBITDA was $104.6 million with a 41% margin and adjusted operating income was $64.0 million, a 25% margin, while GAAP net income fell to $15.8 million, a 6% margin, down 59% year-over-year.  The company completed an 11.9 million share follow-on offering for $888.8 million in net proceeds and repaid $500 million of term debt, ending the quarter with $741.4 million in cash and $1.68 billion in total liabilities.  It also amended its credit agreement to add $112.5 million of revolving capacity and $50 million of letter-of-credit sublimit, and raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $1.13–$1.145 billion, implying 25–27% growth, with 2027 revenue growth now expected to exceed 50%.

CheeryGeoDuck55

boomer metric for growth company, look at their ARR

proctu

$ZM Zoom. It probs cant go much lower and it has a ton of upside if it re rates higher + Anthropic exposure. Anthropic just hit 44B in ARR and will likely cross 100B+ this year. When that happens all hell breaks loose and it will be a scramble to get anything with Anthropic exposure.

Valkyrie_Skuld

You think it’s one that’s replaceable? I think some will be and some won’t be. Here’s what Claude says about the numbers. Last print was Q4 2025 on Feb 11, 2026 — and it was a big one for FSLY: Headline ∙ Revenue $172.6M, +23% Y/Y — fastest growth in 3+ years ∙ EPS $0.12 vs -$0.03 est ∙ Gross margin 64%, record high, up 650 bps Y/Y ∙ Operating income $21.2M (12.3% margin); adj EBITDA $35M vs $11.1M Y/Y ∙ Free cash flow +$8.6M vs -$7.9M Y/Y Revenue by product (Q4) ∙ Network Services $130.8M, +19% ∙ Security $35.4M, +32% (now 20% of total) ∙ Other (Compute/Observability) $6.4M, +78% Customer metrics ∙ 628 enterprise customers (>$100K ARR); top 10 = 34% of revenue ∙ NRR 110%, up from 102% a year ago ∙ RPO $353.8M, +55% Full year 2025 ∙ Revenue $624M, +15% ∙ First profitable fiscal year — net profit of $19.7M 2026 guide (came in above consensus) ∙ FY: revenue $700–720M, non-GAAP op income $50–60M, non-GAAP EPS $0.23–0.29 ∙ Q1: revenue $168–174M, non-GAAP op income $14–18M, EPS $0.07–0.10 The Q4 reaction was strongly positive — stock jumped sharply on the security-mix story, gross margin expansion, and the first full year of GAAP-improving / non-GAAP-positive profitability. Q1 2026 prints Wednesday, May 6 after close, three days out.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Dougdimmadommee

Its not even just that this isn’t actually ARR, it’s that its run rate annualized gross of costs lol. This metric is completely meaningless but people constantly glaze them for it because number goes up.

aaron_dresden

Ai can be the winner but commercial viability is going to come down to hardware efficiency to run it through increased margin on that ARR. Also if top models can be distilled down to become competition and even as open source models, then you both have more competition which lowers margin and compute advances also mean you can get closer to top models for free killing commercial viability. The value then is the training, but that depends on the level of advances from new models. The quality is getting to the point more models are viable such that the quality benefits will start to have diminishing returns. So there’s big questions around commercial viability, and it will be interesting to see what happens with the IPO’s and post IPO.

proctu

when anthropic hits 100B ARR and starts eying 2-3T valuations, zoom gets bid, which creates a flywheel. thats the point of this trade.

BlueYokoWorld

ARR is meaningless because of how fast and new everything is. For instance i was a Pro chatgpt user for a few months last year, then canceled and went to Gemini, then canceled and am just using the free model. Chatgpt is also losing paying users beginning of this year rapidly, so if you bought into their ARR you’d be down right now.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** ZM **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy December or March ~$125 Calls (OP's screenshot shows 12/18/2026 $125C) **Catalyst:** The market hasn't priced in Zoom's equity stake in Anthropic, which is seeing skyrocketing ARR and valuation. **Irony Level:** Extreme. Buying the ultimate dead-money pandemic stock to squeeze out next-gen AI tendies.

LikeWhite0nRice

Except that the majority of that revenue growth is money being financed by their partners at the goal of growing their own revenue. If the larger companies don't see the ROI soon then Anthropic's ARR will fall off a cliff overnight.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Yes but when Anthropic can grow revenue from $9b ARR to $30b ARR in 3 months, it's fine. This is a meme stock we're talking about.

Consistent-Stock

Stay poor with your 1 digit ARR when I gamble my shit to the moon. Or collect some penny affiliate revenue while you are at it as well

JustBrowsinAndVibin

If oil would’ve doubled it would’ve increased datacenter costs 10%. They’re not feeling oil prices at all. Keep an eye on margins this Wednesday for hyperscalers to confirm one way or the other but consumers are hurt significantly more than datacenters. The hardware is much more expensive for them. Memory prices have hit them much harder. And you’re correct, it’s a bet on AI and Anthropic’s jump in ARR from $9B to $30B in the first 3 months of the year tells me it’s the right bet. Even if OpenAI slows down, the other AI players will just take the market share.

Crazy_Donkies

I'll repeat my comment: This is a hollow article that could be written about nearly every biotechnology startup. Only in this case the company is already generating billions in still growing ARR. Until clearer data is published, they are still growing rapidly. I wouldn't start panicking or celebrating your puts just yet.

Crazy_Donkies

Jesus Reddit hates AI and especially OAI. I've seen this factless article everywhere every 5 minutes. We don't know to what degree they missed, and what future expectations are. This is a hollow article that could be written about nearly every biotechnology startup. Only in this case the company is already generating billions in still growing ARR. Cue ​the usual bubble comments:

BumbleSlob

Oh 12% ARR, gee I wonder what other Ponzi scheme also returned the same amount. At least Bernie pretended to invest the money, microstrategy is gonna milk you dry honey 

the_average_no_one

At 2B valuation for a company with 1B ARR, no brainer. Highly doubt it will go to 5

Kpopguru123

SAAS is getting destroyed by AI, that includes hyperscalers and mag 7 who have high concentrations of their ARR expressed as SAAS or SAAS-like business models.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

> Supposedly the ratio used to be 1:8 (meaning gpu heavy). This, if true, is pretty bad news for NVDA. So naturally NVDA stock is ripping higher. Why is it bad news to Nvidia exactly? This just means CPU demand will be much higher going forward. It doesn't mean GPU demand will decrease. >About 1/3 of these ai datacenter CPU’s are being deployed in existing datacenters to replace and upgrade less efficient chips. Source? >So the question has to be asked, why the hell are we speeding towards the brick wall with this infinite ai buildout nonsense? Because no compute = no revenue. Just look at Anthropic. $9b ARR on Jan 1st to $30b at the end of March. 3 months. $21b ARR added. They're so starved for compute that they had to nerf their models recently, causing an uproar in the developer community. No compute = no revenue.

blejsmith

Well, Anthropic's ARR went from $9B to $30B in three months....

JustBrowsinAndVibin

It all comes down whether you believe or not that AI demand will keep growing. I’m a firm believer and I think that Anthropic’s ARR trend is proof of that.

ptexpat

Ok, I got it. Yes, seems useful but I suspect lots of noise. Longer term contracts tend to come with greater discounts ---> lower ARR. So its a double edged sword.

elgrandorado

$MCO "Moody's (MCO) stock rose 1.4% in Wednesday premarket trading after the ratings and market analytics company's Q1 earnings exceeded the Wall Street consensus on strong results in its investor services and analytics divisions. Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.33, topping the average analyst estimate of $4.22, rose from $3.64 in Q4 and $3.83 in last year's Q1. Q1 revenue of $2.08B, beating the $2.06B consensus, increased from $1.89B in the prior quarter and $1.92B a year ago. "MIS (Moody's Investor Services) achieved record revenues of $1.2B on over $2T in rated issuance and delivered an adjusted operating margin of 67%," said President and CEO Rob Fauber. "MA (Moody's Analytics) continued its growth momentum with 8% ARR (annualized recurring revenue) growth and 250 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion. As AI adoption accelerates, it is driving demand for Moody’s decision-grade connected intelligence in high-stakes environments." The company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance for revenue growth in the high-single-digit percent range and adjusted EPS of $16.40-$17.00. Analytics revenue of $926M dropped from $943M in Q4 and climbed from $859M in last year's Q1. The division's 8% Y/Y growth includes 7% growth in Decision Solutions, an 8% increase in Research and Insights, and a 10% improvement in Data and Information. Recurring revenue of $909M increased 11% on a reported basis and 7% on an organic constant currency basis. Investors Service revenue of $1.15B, marking the highest quarter on record, climbed from $946M in the previous quarter and $1.07B a year ago. The 8% Y/Y growth was driven by a 33% increase in investment grade revenue, a 31% jump in high-yield revenue, and corporate finance revenue growth of 12%. Leveraged loans revenue dipped 13% Y/Y." Let's give it a couple more quarters of results to see the impacts, but it really seems like AI has made a massive change to Moody's Analytics business. It's impaired the business so much that operating margins expanded 2.5% while revenue growth kept it's high single digit pace. Business as usual.

crankthehandle

Fine-tuning a coding model is arguably simple if you have decent data and some money for compute, which cursor does have. I don't see how this can be worth more than a billion. But to be fair, they currently have around 2bn ARR and growing fast, so not bad.

EdgeIntelligenceAU

Yep — the key question is whether Anthropic’s revenue run-rate keeps up with the capital and compute spend. If ARR, usage growth, and retention don’t scale, the infrastructure build-out is just an expensive bet.

UrbanDancingSystems_

https://amiregarded.com/RZLV *Rezolve AI exhibits nearly every hallmark of a promotional de-SPAC with serious governance red flags. The CEO's prior company (Powa Technologies) collapsed spectacularly, and the current playbook appears similar: grandiose revenue guidance ($500M ARR by 2026 exit) against actual H1 2025 revenue of just $6.3M, a roll-up acquisition strategy purchasing declining-revenue businesses to manufacture 'growth,' $93.9M payments to CEO-linked offshore entities, and 60%+ annual share dilution. The 50%+ short interest reflects broad institutional conviction that this is a zero. Even giving generous credit to acquired revenue streams (GroupBy, Crownpeak, ViSenze), the company is deeply unprofitable with no clear path to positive unit economics on its core AI product. The $150M debt assumption for Crownpeak further strains an already fragile balance sheet. At $636M market cap with ~$47M TTM revenue and massive losses, the stock is egregiously overvalued on any fundamental basis.*

Citizen_of_Danksburg

Wrong way to look at it, granted, not my areas of interest generally. Should they have good forward guidance, offer competitive business services, and have increasing margins and growing ARR, yeah, they’ll be a great name. Take SOFI or AMKR, for example. They’re businesses like this.

opensim2026

Just buy DIVIDEND paying stock and let the dividends make money for you when they come in and you use them to buy more dividend stock. I've managed to put $50k in the last 5 years into ROTH and it's now generating $500/mo in dividends. I dont bother with trying to sell stock unless one goes up enough to justify selling instead of holding for dividends. A while back my ARR shares went up by over $1,000 and I sold them, USAC has always done nicely for me and any time the shares I had went up for at least a $100 gain I sold, waited for the price to go down again and bought more.

Intelligent-Mess71

Interesting angle, but I’d separate the story from the execution. A lot of microcaps sound like “AI infrastructure” on paper, but the real question is whether users actually stick and pay over time. For example, Scite sounds useful, but is it becoming a must-have tool or just a nice-to-have feature people drop after a trial? That’s usually where these SaaS pivots either prove themselves or stall. Also worth watching how much of that growth is organic vs partnerships or one-off boosts, because at this size a few deals can skew the numbers. One thing to keep in mind, market usually waits for consistent revenue + adoption before re-rating these, not just the AI narrative, so it might stay “mispriced” longer than expected. Curious, have you looked at retention or ARR breakdown yet?

mowlawnforhobby

Reading this thread, I don't think people are thinking big enough. Thinking market penetration into the traffic intersections in the United States. There are about 330,000 of those. Just 10% penetration translates to a SaaS type ARR of \~50 million, and that excludes initial revenues from the set up of the sensors, which are at least 3k per. And this is just an aspect of the smart cities TAM, excluding warehouses, loading docks, mines, heavy machinery, and robotics.

Hacking_the_Gibson

You're taking down votes, but this is absolutely true. People are going fucking apeshit over these "ARR" numbers, but are forgetting that these companies are just taking their weekly or monthly fuckin best numbers and multiplying by 12 or 52 or whatever. They aren't talking about what churn is, nor have we seen what this thing is going to do in a recessionary environment. 

Tr0janSword

Oh, the demand clearly exists. You must be stuck in Nov 2025. Just look at Anthropic's growth. It is the fastest growing company in history and all that demand is from businesses consumption via an API, not people subscribing to a chatbot. July 2025: $5 bn in ARR Dec 2025: $9 bn in ARR Jan 2026: $13 bn in ARR Feb 2026: $19 bn in ARR Mar 2026: $30 bn in ARR If you actually look at the economics of this industry, it all checks out, especially with agentic AI taking off. The only limitation on Anthropic's growth is their compute capacity. They're on pace to do $100 bn in ARR by December, which is unfathomable. The difference between AI and every single other major capex bubble is that AI gets monetized the moment the GPUs are installed. This isn't railroads waiting for the entire track to be laid, or dark fiber waiting for the iPhone to come along. People need to start viewing this like electricity. AI is going to diffuse across every facet of the economy.

TheConstellationGuy

Hi, see my other comment on this thread. Looks like AMZN committed 125B in 2025, and 200B in 2026 for data center / AI capex. So they just spent, or are planning to spend, 325B on a 15B top line ARR? Where is the ROI? I don't see it. The 15B won't even cover depreciation.

TheConstellationGuy

Here's an exerpt from page 64 of the 2025 Seper Augustus Letter. Simply put, that 30B ARR doesn't even cover 1 years worth of last years data center depreciation expense, even depreciating for 8 years conservitavely. I'd encourage reading from about page 60-69 to see **just just how bad** the AI financials are. "$400 billion depreciated over eight years is $50 billion of annual straight-line depreciation expense on the income statement. Non-cash expense, yes, but the assets must be replaced quickly as technology and capacities improve. 2025 associated revenues total somewhere between only $30 billion and $50 billion, depending on who you listen to. Some may call this a mismatch! ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and most LLMs are either free or bear little cost to the user, especially the non-enterprise user. At a hypothetically illustrative 50% gross margin, covering a $50 billion depreciation expense alone requires revenues of $100 billion. A 25% gross margin requires double that revenue, or $200 billion. But again, revenues in 2025 totaled somewhere between only $30 and $50 billion. Heretofore we are just illustrating covering depreciation expense with revenues at a gross margin level. Nasty operating expenses further down the income statement such as sales, general and administrative charges are unavoidable, and that’s just to get to an operating profit line before considering interest, taxes, depreciation or amortization charges, fashionably EBITDA to the debt lovers out there. But what about profitability? With capital intensity, return on capital is the necessary measure. Capital spending is spending on capital assets (that’s how it got its name). A 10% return on $400 billion of capital spent, ignoring financial leverage for the moment, requires a $40 billion profit. That’s roughly 2025 AI-related revenues. At a 10% net profit margin, revenues need to match the $400 billion of capital spent. At a higher 20% net profit margin, required revenues are half of that, or $200 billion. A 30% return on $400 billion of capital is $120 billion. At a 20% net profit margin, revenues need to be five times that, or $600 billion. AI-associated revenues, again, were apparently $30 billion to $50 billion in 2025, kicking the dead horse again to ensure it’s dead."

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Anthropic jumped from $9B ARR to $30B ARR in 3 months and now expect to be free cash flow positive by next year.

NoOneMan79

I'm in AI as well. After all, I am a bot as identified above. My bot self has worked with some of the top firms in the VC world on a few go arounds. Once, I had a chance to raise $50+ million in \~2 years from software I built while half dressed in my bed writing the first line of code, working with a BPD 30-under-30 who never ran a business before and didn't know what "product" was. Yes, I've seen a $200 million dollar valuation with < $1 million ARR, running on software that was essentially 5 months of POC work between a couple of devs. Smoke and mirrors.

Mail_Order_Lutefisk

I have never seen a good entry point for Tesla stock and just go with the market so I have exposure that way, e.g., I’m not a Tesla fanboy. But you are exactly correct. Everyone who uses FSD doesn’t ever want to give it up.  The development of FSD can only be overseen by a single driven absolute lunatic in a place with a startup vibe. It will die by committee and meetings in every legacy automaker, which is why the EV sinkhole that has been formed in most of the legacy companies is so big. They’re simply too big and bureaucratic. FSD will be a massive source of ARR one day and they could be the Microsoft equivalent of cars off licensing FSD technology. Stuff like this changes very rapidly and if FSD adherents get loud enough this technology could be mandated in the near future and Tesla would have a nearly insurmountable lead. 

Familiar_Potato1244

Good question. The drop was brutal, but remember that was a direct listing with no capital raise, so early investors were just taking profits. At a $23M market cap right now, the valuation is basically pennies'compared to the $100M+ they’ve invested in the tech. If that $10M deal closes, we’re looking at almost half the market cap in ARR from just 1 client. There is just a massive disconnect between price and value in my opinion

Familiar_Potato1244

Haha, aboslutely, it definitely has that engineered by security experts, (not designers) vibe. Regarding the app store: $OBAI isn't a B2C play anymore. They aren't trying to win over individual users scrolling the App Store but they are selling B2B. So, when a Fortune 500 company or a city like Mexico City signs a contract, their employees get access through a private enterprise portal or specific corporate versions of the tech. They don't need reviews from the general public because their users are mandatory corporate enrollments. This is why the financials show massive ARR growth despite there is not much feedback on the consumer side hahaha

JustBrowsinAndVibin

Expectations are consistent with Anthropic expecting to be profitable in 2028 and OpenAI in 2031. I won’t defend OpenAI but Anthropic started 2025 at $1B ARR and ended it at $9B ARR. In the first 3 months of 2026 they’ve now hit $30B ARR beating their 2026 projections. You can keep waiting for them to turn profitable. I’m betting on that growth continuing.

short_squeeze999

Uipath Because it's the only stock where you're getting paid nothing for the optionality. Every other asymmetric bet in tech right now requires you to pay for the dream upfront. Palantir at 97 Rule of 40 trades at 28x EV/S. CrowdStrike at 54 trades at 12x. The market has already priced the win into those names. You're buying the outcome, not the journey. With PATH at 1.7x EV/S you're paying for a company the market has already declared a loser. But underneath that label sits $1.69B cash, zero debt, GAAP profitable, $1.85B ARR growing, a customer base of 10,750 enterprises who've trusted the platform for years, and an AI product suite that customers who adopt spend 3x more on. The sequential net new ARR acceleration nobody is talking about. The 58% of existing customers who haven't bought a single AI product yet. Cloud ARR quietly compounding at 25%+. A CFO sandbagging guidance and beating it every quarter. A Deloitte partnership taking their technology into Fortune 500 boardrooms. A government event on April 29th nobody has priced in. And a $500M buyback actively reducing the float. You don't need a perfect outcome here. You don't need 25% ARR growth or a 7x multiple. You just need the market to stop pricing it like it's dying. A re-rate to half the sector average gets you to $20. A single strong earnings print that confirms re-acceleration and analysts have to move. A risk-on rotation in beaten down tech and the short covering alone is violent on a name this compressed. An acquisition bid and any serious buyer pays $18-22 minimum just to be credible. The downside is cushioned by real profitability and nearly $2B in cash sitting on the balance sheet. The upside is a complete narrative flip that happens fast when it happens. That's the bet. Maximum upside. Defined downside. And a market that's already given up on it. That's why it's your biggest asymmetric bet.

ThouOne

Uhh, because it has +$40 billy in deals, NBIS owns 10% of the company, has 4 subscribers each growing triple digits, +700% ARR Y/Y, and Goldman Sachs upgraded PT today from $160 to $205. Why wouldn’t it pump?

illinformed-will

https://preview.redd.it/1xu0tjh1dmug1.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=94d0186275256b85fe3bf68d281b22e612da1e56 Debit spread typo Look for vol regime trading, credit and debit spreads, IV crush You're probably directionnally right (340% option vol change on friday, strong bullish candle on a mango pump) thus why i'm getting in but your naked call are dangerous because of IV + theta so you need to offload fast or restructure to a debit spread since you're long call for a better R:R Or stay regarded and hope like every ape who double my ARR with yolos

Temp_94

1B quaterly cloud revenue and their ARR is big. If they start to cut SBC, they would be positive in earnings.

dxu8888

anthropic is worth at least 8 openais Anthropic gained 21 billion in ARR vs Openai's 5 billion this year. That's a 4x multiple. Then you add in anthropic's greater profitablity and a higher multiple attributed to a market leader. That's anotehr 2x. 4 X 2 = 8

Brawmethius

Like burry bro, I agree with you that palantir is overvalued. But your evidence for this recent move is ARR rate? Weak dog. I expect better from the bear king.

NareModiNeJantaChodi

ARR is a stupid metric in these times. If you signed up today for $200 a month, cancelled the next day and got your refund, you'd be counted as $2400 ARR. Smokes and mirrors.

dxu8888

they bet on the wrong horse Open ai only added 5 billion in ARR this year vs $21 billion for claude. Claude isn't on azure. it's on aws and google cloud.

BallsFace6969

Curious why you think it will f over the bond market. Thanks for posting something interesting instead of glazing dario and his amazing ARR resulting in billions of losses