CPS

snark42

> Who do you know that picks up the phone for unknown numbers? The household survey doesn't really work that way. People are asked to be on it, they are on it for 4 months in one year and the same 4 weeks the next year. > Has anyone ever come to your door or sent you or anyone you know a letter asking if youre employed? No, but again they ask the same 60,000 people for 4 months at a time. You are defined as unemployed if you aren't currently employed and have actively looked for work in the previous 4 weeks. > Census data is the closest I could think for either of those and thats every 10 years. The Census Bureau conducts the CPS study. > Then add on that if youve been unemployed for more than 6 months, you dont count, which many people are, especially in hard to hire industries like tech or engineering. This is just wrong, see above. > Theres also tons of other random stipulations like you cant be unemployed because you were terminated for cause by the company, you cant have left your job without the government considering it a good cause, and a ton of others. Its wild Again, this is wrong, see above. Also check out this [webpage](https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm) that explains it more detail.

wetkarma

BAX is a great example of a Hayes pick -- you look at the balance sheet and do a DCF and you wind up with a share price in the mid-30s as base case, higher if things break right for you. Then out of nowhere comes a recall and the stock is now in the 18s but the DCF still says mid-30s. Then tarriffs/war/market meltdown occurs and now its 14s....you get the picture. I've seen this with his BABA recommendation, with his CPS recommendation, sooo many others. With Hayes, his picks have a decent chance to be home runs (100%+) but the pain of holding through a turnaround can be brutal. Of all the company's he's discussed QXO is the one I'm most skeptical of--I dislike the "steve jobs will come in and make everyone millionaires" narrative for investing...noone ever seems to ask "what happens if Steve Jobs dies?". PYPL -- clearly undervalued but the fed cuts are going to negatively affect OVAS revenue. If US consumer slowdown then its going to be a tough 2026. I haven't seen many articles on it, but the Durbin debit interchange ruling is making their whole debit card business somewhat questionable. I'm looking to be a buyer at some point. VFC -- no thanks. I don't trust the management to be honest in re: timelines as they were...lets say too optimistic back in Q1/Q2 regarding Vans. I think he does the podcast because its a good funnel to acquire business \[same reason he's branched into marketing swag\] and this is how he started the promotion for his fund (he's done it for a while and has the format down). Also -- his politics aside, he seems like a genuine "nice guy" who likes doing press hits..the media hits feeds his youtube channel/blog which feeds his business which in turn feeds his media hit.

yatruthordare

why is my CPS up 8% today? not complaining

Primary_Audience46

It's too late for bull spread for this trade, but moving forward I will be using bull spread instead of CPS.

No-Veterinarian2681

FEMY Posted this somewhere else, but wanted to share future catalysts, and my thoughts.  FEMY is 💯 long term hold. Thursdays catalyst was an unexpected Trump news fluke, but it def put the stock on the radar of more people which is good. I think any good investor who does DD can read the SEC filings and look at the company fundamentals  understands the long term value and potential.  Next catalyst is week of Nov 6 (earnings call). I expect them to report on how European market is going and it will be positive resulting in a bump from here, but not for it to maintain the high point (maybe set a new floor .7-.8) and it will probably consolidate again. Good time to sell what you have (assuming you didn’t enter at its high 1.1-1.8) and then buy in lower. It could hit that and higher after earnings. Oct 17 SEC filed their COO is retiring (Dec last day). This gives another potential catalyst at some point in next few months to name his replacement.  I think the stock price will be volatile until next year, but thinking between Trump, strong fundamentals, strong company insider support, outside institutional support, multiple patents and products, and being at commercialization stage already it is a winner. I bought back in and I’m holding long term, while taking profits a long the way. I have been watching this company for awhile, and I think it will do big things. Just depends on what type of investing you are doing (short or long). Both at play here. Not to sound cliche, but timing (entry CPS) is everything when short…but time in the market is the big win here. 

KaiTrials

Why did you roll your CPS out in time as opposed to rolling them down ? Was it because you saw the premium gained for the same max risk was more for rolling out in time?

LabDaddy59

Not bad, all told. My OKLO credit put spread expired OTM, as did my PLTR iron condor. I rolled my CRWV CPS out a week out of an abundance of caution; it would have closed OTM. My HOOD CPS I also rolled out a week, again, out of caution; I should have waited longer as it closed only $0.09 ITM. No big deal. Biggest hurt was a CPS on NBIS, which I also rolled (for a debit) and reduced the strikes. I closed a CC that was deep ITM for a profit. 😁😎

Throwing_Horns

There has been a discussion about whether or not cannabis industry jobs are included in BLS employment reporting. I think some are probably counted but the numbers are likely to be under-reported. (re-posting from yesterday's daily thread) [Current Population Survey (CPS)](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps.html) >The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United States. The household survey component of the monthly jobs report counts anyone who reports being employed. This household survey data can be very generalized as it comes directly from data gathered by sample addresses. It's gathered by the Census Bureau which is contracted by the BLS. For instance anyone that reported working as a Budtender would usually be categorized under a general retail sales category. The other component of the monthly jobs report involves business/payroll reporting. If there were unreported jobs they would likely be missing from this area. Don't know about this.

Throwing_Horns

[Current Population Survey (CPS)](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps.html) The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United States.

scm66

Calling CPS

TuskaTheDaemonKilla

ITT: People who don't know anything about the BLS. The actual compiling of the jobs report numbers has very little involvement from the person who runs the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The jobs report is calculated based on two surveys, (a) the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Establishment Survey and (b) the Current Population Survey (CPS) Household Survey. These surveys are conducted by different agencies, and include ~120,000 businesses and ~60,000 households. These surveys are done randomly, with follow-ups by phone. The data is collected in 3-4 different organizations, and compiled by them. The heads of the BLS doesn't even see the data until shortly before it's released. Then the revisions happen later when the BLS is provided with the state derived data, to then compare with their data, and arrive at a clearer picture. Similar to 9/11 conspiracies, for the BLS job report to be corrupted or faked, it would require the silence and cooperation of every single person working at at least 3 different agencies, four different facilities, and each states own data collection agency. There have been attempts to corrupt/fake job report data or inflation data in other countries (Argentina being the primary example). They failed spectacularly because it's impossible to keep something this broadly distributed a secret.

blofeldfinger

CPS

tacocat-8-tacocat

Bro from what I can tell, the retail buying volume on this stock is off the hook this week - also looks like earnings were good with record revenue reporting and healthy gross margin (reported end of July) and there was an exec who bought shares (insider) 2 days ago. “Director Ivo James Cavoli has made a significant investment by purchasing 9,425 shares of CPS Technologies stock, with the transaction valued at $26,235.” https://www.tipranks.com/news/insider-trading/director-makes-bold-move-with-cps-technologies-stock-purchase-insider-trading I’m in, thx for the post

TwoCrustyCorndogs

My brother just came out as an audiophile and I'm not sure whether or not I should call CPS. 

john9539

So they're going to cook the books tomorrow with the CPS data?

Sure_Leadership_6003

I had the opposite, I wrote 5 CPS on AAPL0808 (217.5/210) 2 weeks ago. AAPL was around 202 yesterday, I think it is undervalued, so I sold the Covered 210P for a profit yesterday, and turned the CPS into CSP. I am willing to accept the assignment of 500 AAPL shares at $211 ($217.5-6.5). This morning one of the contract got assigned. So now I am holding 100 shares of AAPL at the cost of $211 and owe 4 contracts of 217.5 contracts. Looks like the contracts are OTM and I am going to profit from both sides. With your case, it is hard to tell without knowing how much capital you have in your account. Are you comfortable holding 200k+ worth of AAPL for months? If not I probably would have closed everything. I am pretty comfortable in getting assigned that 500 shares.

Zenin

Were. They *were* extremely well maintained. JOLTS and CPS are barely hanging on by a thread now after the gutting that the regime has done. Very shortly the markets are going to be looking much more so at data from the likes of ADP and other private sources than any funny math this regime puts out.

Shoend

Anyone that has worked with data from the bureau of labour statistics knows that US data is top notch. Both JOLTS and CPS are extremely well maintained, and no other region of the world has data with the same quality as the US.

GhostOfLamplight

Hey man, I appreciate you posting sources but generally with sources this large it's best if you highlight specific segments you consider relevant. Because if you don't it leads to weird moments like these where I start to look through and I don't feel like you've really glanced at these yourself. Would you mind telling me where you originally got these and what led you to believe they helped your point of data falsified for political purposes? \-- I thumbed through the links of the ones that are formatted to at least have summaries and I found this: "BLS has established controls to ensure it presents the U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) CPS survey results in an accurate, clear, and unbiased manner. Regarding CES data, BLS could enhance and consistently comply with its controls to further to minimize the risk of data falsification and to protect the confidentiality of the information it obtains voluntarily from survey respondents." Which acknowledges the possibility of further improvement but mostly focuses on lapses in standards rather than political interference. \-- This is further acknowledged by the Census report story which is \*also\* about an initial stream of incorrect data, done in a bid to meet quotas with the handwave excuse if it being handled in the quality control portion of things. "Butler testified that one of her supervisors, Survey Statistician Timothy Maddaloni, asked that she instruct her team members to falsify data by sending in cases as completed, despite the fact that they had not completed the mandatory interview and were, thus, incomplete. 5 When Butler refused to comply, she alleged that Maddaloni then contacted her subordinate Field Representative Julius Buckmon directly to request that he send in his cases as completed. 6 Maddaloni reportedly stated that he would cover the cases during the quality control phase of the survey, known as the reinterview process.7" "Philadelphia Regional Office supervisors regularly emphasized the importance of obtaining survey response rates, with little to no mention of data integrity. Employees experienced significant pressure to achieve and improve their response rates by any means possible. Pressure to meet these requirements stemmed from both the Regional Office and Census National Headquarters." \-- 1/2

sadlittlewaffle

CPS up 17 percent what a fire ticker name

Careless-Diamond3046

Damn you came in hot with some great points.  Although i do wish it wasnt true for me to still be priced out of owning even 800ft sq place in the cit where i live where my job and life is😆🥲( wouldnt want my childs life to be at the mercy of my landlord kicking is out) Not to mention if i got into the market the only housing available for that is condominiums that are falling like a rock in value leaving me with potentially negative equity(might be great time to get in soon tho for sure when it bottoms) But ya lets talk about my grandparents lol They all grew up on farms with well over 800sqft lol probably closer to 2000sqft. They managed to move and buy homes for 80k that were worth over a million now and have downsized and cashed in to retire comfortably (cant wait to see the retirement crisis when gen x & millenials are next to hit retirement age on top of the healthcare crisis worsening as you awknoledged) They lived in a time where as a parent their kids spent most of their time outside on their own and they didnt need to have to pay childcare while they were at work when the kids were 5-12years old, without self phones too lol the latchkey kids (modern kids these days are fucking insanely coddled and godforbid a teacher finds out your child is left alone at those ages at home, CPS will make a visit) childcare prices being extreme. Im not discreditng your points about modern times not being better in many ways. But we are at a time where i believe we have traded modern conveniences like netflix and uber eats, for things like community and family.  The numbers dont lie, we have a birthing crisis in north america and the western world as well as parts of asia. Less people are having kids lol. And that is mostly due to the finanical price tag while most of us are barely just trying to survive right now without them. It would be better to compare to my parents who thrived during the 80s/90s and made out like bandits in terms of the perfect balance of modern conveniences, housing affordability, and just the right amount of technology.  Then you have looking to the future. Why the fuck would i want to bring in kids. To a world that feels like its going backwards in terms of quality of life aside from modern day conveninces. A higher level of global escalations where its looking more and more that another world war is about to break out. Another nuke dropped. What job prospects will their be for my child once a.i is truly implemented? What healthcare will their be? How fucked will the climate be?  Listen man im not saying it was ever easy to have kids at any point in time and im pretty fucking happy that these days that it isnt so frowned upon to choose not to. But as of right now if my and my partner were to have one, id be super underwater finanically, worried i wouldn't be able to provide a quality of life as good for them as my parents did for me and my siblings and bring them into a world i truly feel is set up for them to fail right now not just finanically but emotionally and spirtually.

PrestigiousSalary330

CPS

d_HOME

Do you use win rate or ROI to benchmark your success in CPS?

Competitive-Set4184

I am a big follower of the H3 podcast, and a lot of recent discussion has been about the H3 Snark subreddits and how they have gone way too far (doxing, calling CPS, harassment campaigns, etc.), and how Reddit has done little to nothing to stop it. I believe Ethan Klein will sue Reddit or cause bad publicity for them in the coming months, which will turn some heads when it all goes public. I believe there are higher-ups in Reddit who approve the hate campaigns and are cosigning them, so if discovery were to take place and things were found... Could be puts to the brim. Share any thoughts and opinions. I'm just spitballing here.

ThickChallenge8113

I'm in. eps was .09 in last 12 mo .15 CPS low float What is the next catalyst?

repeatoffender123456

This is factually incorrect. To be classified as unemployed, a person must be jobless, actively looking for work in the past four weeks, and available to accept a job if offered. It has nothing to do with collecting unemployment benefits. Here is the link to the CPS. https://www.bls.gov/cps/

teslakevee

CPS

mabcapital

Sir, this is CPS

UpbeatBarracuda

CPS

Dat_Ace

$CPSH On May 23, 2025, Trump signed 4 executive orders to boost U.S. nuclear power - streamlining NRC licensing, fast-tracking microreactor testing, expanding nuclear for national security, and targeting 400 GW capacity by 2050. CPS received a $1.1 million Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) award from the U.S. Department of Energy. To develop modular radiation shielding solutions for transportation and use of micro reactors. First commercial order for radiation shielding was secured in early 2025 - CPS' first new commercial product in years. This product emerged from a DOE-funded SBIR Phase II program started only 6 months prior, originally aimed at "secondary containment for microreactors" in the trucking industry.

Dat_Ace

$CPSH On May 23, 2025, Trump signed 4 executive orders to boost U.S. nuclear power - streamlining NRC licensing, fast-tracking microreactor testing, expanding nuclear for national security, and targeting 400 GW capacity by 2050. $CPSH CPS received a $1.1 million Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) award from the U.S. Department of Energy. To develop modular radiation shielding solutions for transportation and use of micro reactors. First commercial order for radiation shielding was secured in early 2025 - CPS' first new commercial product in years. This product emerged from a DOE-funded SBIR Phase II program started only 6 months prior, originally aimed at "secondary containment for microreactors" in the trucking industry.

Dat_Ace

On May 23, 2025, Trump signed 4 executive orders to boost U.S. nuclear power—streamlining NRC licensing, fast-tracking microreactor testing, expanding nuclear for national security, and targeting 400 GW capacity by 2050. $CPSH CPS Technologies Corporation Announces Phase II Award from the Department of Energy

Dat_Ace

On May 23, 2025, Trump signed 4 executive orders to boost U.S. nuclear power—streamlining NRC licensing, fast-tracking microreactor testing, expanding nuclear for national security, and targeting 400 GW capacity by 2050. $CPSH CPS Technologies Corporation Announces Phase II Award from the Department of Energy

Acceptable-Fold-7563

I know someone already posted about it recently but if yall haven’t already, check out CPS Technologies (CPSH) Low floater, very promising, domestic

Effective_Pea_7244

LAST ONE THE GOOD ole U$A GOLDEN DOME by yellow CHIEF #1 The U$ is developing and testing several hypersonic missile systems, including the [Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW)](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f24ca8b027933cc4&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS924US924&q=Long-Range+Hypersonic+Weapon+%28LRHW%29&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRlfqxhLaNAxUXPUQIHYE4A6QQxccNegQIJxAB&mstk=AUtExfAMSSle2qVQQARNwXbOA1tNQY3fNCCFGI_AXrZ99K9Qq6uAfFN1smGNMnjYwnZGKcVQourgGNAPzyfagC9hUU1563LPVDucZ3hl9-pSwyNPrHSk4aDdyRPBk33L9A_0BmNl27ceIjfmOP8552uEIR452hQYjC0kJrxptSGeNUztOIlMdKOqBSn_stRQ95qI9s35&csui=3), also known as "[Dark Eagle](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f24ca8b027933cc4&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS924US924&q=Dark+Eagle&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRlfqxhLaNAxUXPUQIHYE4A6QQxccNegQIJxAC&mstk=AUtExfAMSSle2qVQQARNwXbOA1tNQY3fNCCFGI_AXrZ99K9Qq6uAfFN1smGNMnjYwnZGKcVQourgGNAPzyfagC9hUU1563LPVDucZ3hl9-pSwyNPrHSk4aDdyRPBk33L9A_0BmNl27ceIjfmOP8552uEIR452hQYjC0kJrxptSGeNUztOIlMdKOqBSn_stRQ95qI9s35&csui=3)". These weapons are designed to travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, making them difficult to intercept. The LRHW is being developed by the Army, with the Navy also developing its own version, [Conventional Prompt Strike](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f24ca8b027933cc4&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS924US924&q=Conventional+Prompt+Strike&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRlfqxhLaNAxUXPUQIHYE4A6QQxccNegQIQxAB&mstk=AUtExfAMSSle2qVQQARNwXbOA1tNQY3fNCCFGI_AXrZ99K9Qq6uAfFN1smGNMnjYwnZGKcVQourgGNAPzyfagC9hUU1563LPVDucZ3hl9-pSwyNPrHSk4aDdyRPBk33L9A_0BmNl27ceIjfmOP8552uEIR452hQYjC0kJrxptSGeNUztOIlMdKOqBSn_stRQ95qI9s35&csui=3) (CPS). Here's a more detailed look:U$ Hypersonic Missile Programs: LRHW dark eagle long range hypersonic weapon CPS navy hypersonic missle HACM hyp attack cruise missle ARRW air launch rapid response for the quick draw ALO air launched offensive anti surface warfare

Bullylandlordhelp

You see contradicting information primarily because of spin. Ask any statistician and they can pretty much make the data show what you want by restricting the time frame and boundaries of analysis. Here is the specific definitions they used: Middle-income households are defined as those with an income that is two-thirds to double that of the U.S. median household income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size. Lower-income households have incomes less than two-thirds of the median, and upper-income households have incomes that are more than double the median. When using American Community Survey (ACS) data, incomes are also adjusted for cost of living in the areas in which households are located. Estimates of household income are scaled to reflect a household size of three and expressed in 2023 dollars. In the Current Population Survey (CPS), household income refers to the calendar year prior to the survey year. Thus, the income data in the report refers to the 1970-2022 period, and the share of Americans in each income tier from the CPS refers to the 1971-2023 period. The demographic attributes of Americans living in lower-, middle- or upper-income tiers are derived from ACS data. Except as noted, estimates pertain to the U.S. household population, excluding people living in group quarters.

Dividedby21mil

Okay hear me out, accretive dilution for 1st edition charizards. We start a company. Any company doesn’t matter. A tire company. Then we take profits and buy charizards. Then we issue debt and print a million shares the but charizards. This will be bad for the stock price, but you will have more charizards per share. And who doesn’t want charizards per share? In fact we will invent our own term to make it sound official. CPS. Charizards per share will be the new financial metric that all of Wall Street pays attention to. You aren’t storing your book in charizards? You’re old news.

Cytraz

Thanks for checking CPS 🙏

ebolognesi

as i said, cant do CPS (my broker does not allow it)

skilliard7

>In the Current Population Survey (CPS), people are classified as employed if, during the survey reference week, they meet any of the following criteria: >**worked at least 1 hour as a paid employee (see wage and salary workers)** >**worked at least 1 hour in their own business, profession, trade, or farm (see self-employed)** >were temporarily absent from their job, business, or farm, whether or not they were paid for the time off (see with a job, not at work) >worked without pay for a minimum of 15 hours in a business or farm owned by a member of their family (see unpaid family workers) Doordash workers are considered self employed. Same with Streaming 1 hour a week on Twitch(if you are affiliate/partner, which you can get with like 3 viewers and make pennies from), selling subs on Onlyfans, having a Youtube channel with 1000 subs, selling a few crafts on Etsy, etc.

Reventlov123

i.e. create paired bullish and bearish positions on the same stock using limit orders (on the day) while not being "short" because you actually own the stock and have the money. Since you want more stock, accidentally buying more cheap than you sold isn't a loss. Since you did math, and any sales will be above your average CPS, that's not a loss either.

scarzncigarz

(Don’t) call CPS

InMyInfancy

am a 33 year old neet that lives with my retired mom. i swear to god if these tariffs affect her ability to care for me....... the second i don't get my dino nuggies, I'm gonna call CPS on her.

wetkarma

Aside from being an obvious distraction from the Signal story -- from an investing standpoint this is good to awesome news from auto-parts suppliers (companies like Cooper Standard Holdings ($CPS\*) and all around terrible news for the manufacturers. Strategy wise -- all manufacturers "local" and "foreign" will pull forward by at least 1 quarter wherever possible their imports of parts need for assembly. They have been likely doing this for the past several weeks so I expect the auto suppliers to have a bumper quarter next earnings report. fd: I own shares in CPS but my investment thesis is unrelated to the bump that this policy provides.

Fun-Imagination-2488

CPS is +31% ytd BABA is +56% ytd GTN is +40%

peatoast

I’m more worried about my current bag. I have a huge exposure on MSFT with around $300 average CPS. Should I sell half then wait to buy up some ETF. What would you do?

LabDaddy59

An iron condor is a credit put spread plus a credit call spread, so to convert a CPS to an IC, just add a CCS to it. It'll bring in more premium (using the same collateral), reduce the max loss, at the cost of taking on upside risk.

LabDaddy59

Don't mind at all. My primary active trading has been in credit put spreads. I do CC/PMCC as a "cherry on top", but the CPS are the main trades. I'm seriously considering adding credit call spreads to them and making them iron condors. I also don't trade "often". For example, I have what I call a "Basket of Credit Put Spreads" that I set to expire on the 3rd Friday of the month (the monthly expiration date). I let them run. Since the Feb expiration just passed, I just updated my spreadsheet this morning (I post my trades live, give the reasoning, discuss challenges and rolls, exits, etc., and provide weekly/end of month updates). [https://www.reddit.com/r/StockOptionCoffeeShop/comments/1ivgxfm/basket\_of\_credit\_put\_spreads\_february\_21\_2025/](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockOptionCoffeeShop/comments/1ivgxfm/basket_of_credit_put_spreads_february_21_2025/) 5 trades, 5 wins, $13.3k earned.

King_Eboue

CPS dumping after a slight reduction Q4 earnings compared to 2023. 2025 guidance not looking that great with car volumes not rebounding as much as expected. Gonna take another look but if it dumps further, I think it might be worth a position

LabDaddy59

Well, I evolved into the position. Bought stock. Subsequently decided to sell short calls against it. Subsequently, I started trading credit put spreads and included the same underlying. But they weren't "in sync"; my CC may have been 30 DTE, my CPS 45, and I'd be rolling them independently. So for convenience/management, I started to put the CPS and short call in my option modeler, and voila, found out it's called a reverse jade lizard. But RJL aren't long the stock, hence my "covered" addition.

LabDaddy59

Here's an idea; don't know if it fits the parameters of what you're required to do. The only issue I personally see (and this may not matter for a year one bachelor's course) is that the four bullet points can be massive topics in and of themselves. So my idea is to more narrowly focus, and then, dig deep. For example, take "Credit Put Spreads". Subfocus: * The implications of the BSM model on the management of CPS. * Focus on the prime Greeks (Delta/Theta) while just giving a brief overview of the others. * Discuss under what market conditions to best use. * Bonus: compare and contrast to Debit Call Spreads using the same expiration and strikes. Just spit-balling.

skilliard7

> and you brought absolutely zero evidence of your claims that people making 5 cents on twitch are considered to be employed. https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#:~:text=In%20the%20Current%20Population%20Survey,family%20(see%20unpaid%20family%20workers) In the Current Population Survey (CPS), people are classified as employed if, during the survey reference week, they meet any of the following criteria: - worked at least 1 hour as a paid employee (see wage and salary workers) - worked at least 1 hour in their own business, profession, trade, or farm (see self-employed) - were temporarily absent from their job, business, or farm, whether or not they were paid for the time off (see with a job, not at work) - worked without pay for a minimum of 15 hours in a business or farm owned by a member of their family (see unpaid family workers)

LabDaddy59

"I am curious about your thoughts on who is buying this stock, given the discount in the options market." Like me? As mentioned in my initial response, I currently am long the stock and also have credit put spreads. "retail must be getting killed on this stock." Are we talking the same stock? YTD it's up over 50%. 2024 recognized gains: Stock: $6.6k Covered call: $3.3k CPS: $23.1k Total: $33k 2025 recognized gains: Covered call: $1k CPS: $4k Total: $5k Unrealized gains: Stock: $15k That's a total of $53k since like Dec 2024. I see this as a long play and thus, at this point in time based on what I know, I've chosen stock over LEAPS or far-dated synthetic longs.

LabDaddy59

Credit put spreads ("CPS") are my bread and butter. Ticker / expiration / strike? I ask not only as it's always helpful to provide that information, but your collateral and min/max seem...off. For one contract... Collateral = width x 100 Max loss = collateral - premium received So something isn't making sense to me.

RightWingers_peggers

Reporting to duty sir! CPS puts fucked me over

LabDaddy59

"in my mind if my vertical goes ITM (technically past my break-even), then once I convert it to a CSP, if price plummets more, then I have the option to roll more effectively to get a better price...so it still seems better than just eating the loss to me." From what you've said, it appears you may sell the long leg prior to being assigned. For one thing, I'd wait until assignment. So, if you were assigned early, you'll wake up, see it happened, \*then\* you sell your long call. I mean, even if rolling it, you don't have to roll both legs. For me it's different because of my focus on premiums resulting in a large number of contracts...large enough to be unwieldy in terms of buying. It's not uncommon for me to sell 100 contracts on NVDA, for example. At $135, that's $1.35 million of value. :eek: I got in a jam just lately with NVDA. Had a $130 / $140 CPS expiring Friday, and NVDA dropped to $130 yesterday. I was concerned about early assignment, though I would have preferred waiting a day or two to see if there was a rebound, so I rolled it and took a substantial loss on the Dec 20 expiration. On the positive side of that is the premium for opening up a new trade was \*a lot\* higher than when originally entered even though I dropped the long and short strikes (now $126 / $136\*). So, when all is said and done, presuming they expire worthless, I'll still net a nice profit. Just since rolling yesterday I've made $18k on the new spread. I personally wouldn't put the cash intended to buy in anything other than a very safe investment. I'm a big believer in keeping dry powder, even in a raging bull market. Not only for the safety of it if needed to exercise an option, or when a new opportunity arises, but also, for example, yesterday when rolling, I seriously considered throwing more collateral at it (I know, a lot of less experienced folks would cringe). I didn't, but it's nice to know I could have...I did that back in the August time frame when NVDA had similar issues. \* NVDA has rebounded today to $136.48, $1.48 over my short, hence my picking up $18k on it in less than 24 hours. Granted, expiration isn't until Jan 17, 2025 and a lot can happen. I chose $126 / $136 as a balance between premium and my expectation. But I have a high risk tolerance, so if NVDA continues to climb well before expiration, I \*may\* roll it to higher strikes to get more premium.

LabDaddy59

1. No, I don't end up buying shares. I'm doing credit put spreads solely for the premium.\* 2. It's rare that I've been assigned; happened like 3x last year, 2 early on and 1 in Aug (IIRC). CPSs do require more management than CSPs. As far as "the same person has grabbed up both legs"...that's \*not\* a good way to look at it. Don't look at it as an individual "buyer" buying both legs of your spread. Each leg is just one batch of contracts held in a pool, so you have no idea the motivations behind any long put holder. 3. Yeah, you need to be careful in where you park your money. At Fidelity, my cash is sitting in a money fund yielding \~5% per year. I wouldn't park it in something where you could have a sudden big drop. I like holding 25% (+/-) in cash as "dry powder". I'm thinking that, if you're willing to buy (which I'm not), and you scale accordingly (like the 3 contract spread I mentioned earlier), that will lessen the need/concern for managing a challenged position. The thing about a CPS v CSP is that you hear people say, "Oh, I set a strike at $100 as I'd be okay buying at that price." Well, they're okay if the stock drops to $95 or so, but not if it drops to $90...or $80...and that's where a CPS can be helpful. \* If I wouldn't mind getting the shares, I'll just do a CSP. But you have me thinking about using verticals as a path to buy. If I want 500 shares, I'll just sell 5 CSPs; if I'm entering a trade for premium, I may do 100 contracts of a CPS.

C2theC

The question is, would have been less risk to just have bought approximately $100k of the underlying to get the same net return? Of course, if you weren’t using that amount of capital to begin with, then weekly spreads would have been the only way to go. Your mostly Credit Put Spreads (CPS) worked only because TSLA only had one direction. And the Credit Call Spreads (CCS) only during those times of consolidation. That platform you are using has terrible options nomenclature. A long call spread (DCS) is totally the opposite of a long put spread (DCS). These are debit spreads, and your comments say you sold spreads, so it seems like you only traded credit spreads.

JDsCouch

Ted Nugent just got head of CPS.

clamboy2315

Boy just got picked up from CPS look

rupert1920

>Upside remains but losses are capped. Did you mean buy a put? Right now the whole strategy has an uncovered put, so "losses are capped" is true in the same sense that all naked puts and CPS has defined risk. If you want leverage and don't want the theta decay, try something like a ZEBRA: https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/zebra

Throwaway_Molasses

Steris is locking down the MDR CPS biz in healthcare through acquisitions and eliminating competition. The moat comes from their service plans and the use of proprietary chemicals and dispensing. The rest of their offerings are just piggyback sales and gravy.

GraceBoorFan

Is there any way to go long on CPS?

Milf-Whisperer

She kind of stopped that after a neighbor caught her making me film it. CPS got involved and it was just a whole thing.

The_King_of_Chess

No. Unemployment only takes into consideration those who have taken the Current Population Survey (CPS). Only 110,000 take that survey each month, and then they extrapolate that number as though it is representative of a whole. [How the Government Measures Unemployment : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where) Inflation is even worse. First of all, the way that the government defines inflation is wrong. The government defines inflation as the increase in consumer prices. This is not an accurate definition of inflation. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply, which can manifest itself in many ways, the increase in consumer prices is just one way. It can also manifest itself in asset prices such as real estate (as you mentioned), or in the stock market, or in the bond market. Not only that, but also the way that the government tries to calculate an increase in consumer prices is flawed. Hedonic adjustments and substitutions within the CPI are extremely subjective and arbitrary. In addition, imagine if due to improvements to manufacturing, a product was supposed to go down in price, but due to money printing, the product increases in price instead. The government would not take into account how much it was supposed to go down, but only how much it had gone up. i.e. A widget costs $1 dollar. due to improvements in manufacturing, the cost would now be $0.95. However, due to money printing (inflation), the price of the widget goes up to $1.02. The government would say, "This widget has only gone up 2%, which is what we are targeting! We have inflation of 2%" However, if you take into account the amount that the product would have gone down, the real inflation rate is 7%. That is a whole 5% that is not taken into account Via the CPI!

MicroBadger_

I subtracted the current total from the Feb 2020 number. If I went from when Biden was sworn in, it would be 16,189,000 jobs. Also from your link: "The term “immigrant” has a specific meaning in U.S. immigration law, which is all those inspected and admitted as lawful permanent residents. In this analysis, **we use the term “immigrant” in the non-technical sense** of the word to mean all those who were not U.S. citizens at birth. Typically, the government refers to these individuals in surveys such as the CPS as the “foreign-born”, which includes all persons who were not U.S. citizens at birth. They **include naturalized citizens, permanent residents (green card holders)**, temporary visitors, guestworkers, and illegal aliens." This analysis, and by extension your dumb ass, someone who was brought here as a baby but has worked here for 3 decades would be a "foreign worker".

Acrobatic-Event2721

Ahh yes, the flawed graph everyone likes to spam. This graph is comparing per capita productivity to a dataset of workers that excludes a big chunk of the work force. It says it right on the graph. > Data are for compensation (wages and benefits) of production/nonsupervisory workers in the private sector and net productivity of the total economy. And if you look at the methodology, it shows you that they are excluding about 20% of the public sector and 13.4% of the total workforce that is in the public sector. This means that in total, they exclude 30.7% of all workers in the wage data set while including them in the productivity dataset since they’re using total productivity. This tells you nothing about whether productivity is linked to wages because they’re too many variables they left out with excluding a third of the work force. > We are interested in measuring productivity growth over the total economy, not just the non-farm business sector. To construct our productivity index, we begin with a measure of total hours worked in the total economy > We start with a measure of average hourly wages for production and nonsupervisory workers in the private sector (shorthanded as nonsupervisory hereafter). In some contexts we have used median wages to describe pay for “typical” workers, but these are derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which only goes back to 1973. Since we want to go back further in time than this to compare pay and productivity, we use the hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers instead. The BLS includes only private-sector workers in their calculations of hourly pay for this group. But because production and nonsupervisory workers account for roughly 80% of private-sector workers, and they largely do not include extremely well-paid corporate executives, their wages are a good proxy for what a typical worker earns. I hope you can now see why this methodology doesn’t isn’t good.

No_Loss4967

He’d be in for a lot higher CPS if he bought at the top. $8 is just last year

OptionsSage-69

Call CPS and tell them you’re being abised!

danzibara

Jobs (Current Employment Survey: CES) and labor force (Current Population Survey: CPS or Local Area Unemployment Statistics: LAUS) are two different measures of the labor market that are no directly comparable. The way that I think about is that they are two different lenses and perspectives that we can use to measure economic activity. Sometimes they move in tandem and sometimes they diverge. The Nevada Labor Market Information Office has this handy little chart describing the differences. Just keep in mind that LAUS is based on CPS but geared towards smaller geographic areas: [https://www.nevadaworkforce.com/\_docs/LAUS/CES-vs.-LAUS-Quick-Reference-Table.pdf](https://www.nevadaworkforce.com/_docs/LAUS/CES-vs.-LAUS-Quick-Reference-Table.pdf) Economic activity is difficult to measure because it is the aggregation of countless decisions made by millions or billions of individuals each day. For example, we are both here behind the Wendy's dumpster, are you going to pay me three dollars for a handjob or are you just wasting my time? If you pay me the three dollars, then GDP has increased by three dollars by the new service that I have provided. Since I have engaged in work for pay or profit, I would be considered employed under the LAUS or CPS; however, a self-employed crankmaster like myself would be excluded from the jobs count because the self-employed are excluded from CES.

April-M-June

Getting pregnant Collecting child support Neglecting the child Child taken away by CPS pregnant again More child support, one less kid Dumpster More child support

nolan_smith

Nearly the exact same position but my first buy in was a year or so before 2$, have pretty similar shares/CPS. I'd say your analysis is pretty fucking spot on. Also hold a few options, and I never made a single cent on options before ASTS and now I have the right to buy 200 shares at 2.50 among others. To infinity and beyond baby!

Any_Yogurtcloset362

I still think CRWD is expensive after the dip. The crux of their money comes from endpoint. They really charge peanuts for CPS and their Container product is not competitive pricing wise. Given the wide moat they have, their pricing strategy is managed by regards. Once it gets closer to $180, I’d probably take a closer look at it. Above $200 I think it’s still expensive given current changes and the investments they will need to put in place so avoid another outage. The Linux outage went without fanfare, so this is a huge systemic issue which means lots of $$$ needed to change culture, processes, architecture, and systems since it’s actually worse than people realize. MSFT outage got all the coverage, but the Linux one months ago should have been the red flag that there’s huge issues internally.

Royal-Tough4851

Terrible idea. If you want to buy the dip then buy spy and sell covered calls, or sell CPS. This is assuming you can even get a good fill. The spread are ES right is ridiculous. There is no liquidity

blacksteveman

CPS is a city ran electric company (monopoly). Not the worse rates but they are variable, so peak demand is pricey.

bdavid21wnec

3 of 4 ain't bad today $MELI, $CPS, $NET Fuck $INTC

UndeadAgurk

VFC, BABA, PYPL, INTC, CPS, GOOS and my speculative pick ASTS. Looking to add some DIS soon. I started investing 3 months ago and have 15% returns so far. Rotated from tech (sp500 IT sector) to these individual smaller caps before the mag7 crashed. Avoided huge losses and gained small profits meanwhile

Worried_Quarter469

Jpow going on vacation and leaving us alone in the market with 🥭 until September not right Call CPS

Friendly-Excuse400

CPS is swimming in debt as net debt to EBITDA is >5. I see revenues are growing, but still not turning a profit. I’ll pass, better opportunities in the market in better financial position.

zxc123zxc123

Cookie clicker just taught me Grandmapocalypse shortens the path in the upgrade ladder towards maximum CPS before cookie ascension for heavenly chips.

Electrical_Trash_992

Gotta switch the mindset with the CPI cooling off. Small/mid caps are going to explode when 10yr comes down. Look at $CPS, $VFC

Electrical_Trash_992

How do you figure my $85 C on WHR was a loss chief? I made 15k on that trade. $CPS is even right now, I haven’t lost a penny.

james_burdiglio

You've got two losers in your post history, OP. $CPS and $WHR, so tell me why I should believe you this time.

bdavid21wnec

$GLW - fiber play with AI, just popped today cause they are gonna print money $GXO - logistics mostly in UK, Brad Jacob company $CRK - nat gas AI play, Jerry Jones owns like 70% RNA - biotech with huge potential $VFC - turnaround play $CPS - automotive rebound play Most of these need rates to drop before they 🚀

MaximinusRats

The BLS publishes estimates of sampling error for both CES and CPS empoyment data (links below), so it's possible to address this question quantitatively. For the CES (establishment) data, the estimated standard error for total employment is 0.2 per cent - or 0.4 per cent for changes, assuming the errors are incorrelated. Changes below this level can nonetheless lead to big changes in asset prices. I'm not sure this doesn't make statistical sense, though. In testing hypotheses, we usually demand that a result be significant at the 95 per cent or 99 per cent level because we really want to avoid type 1 errors. If we're trading, though, it may be enough to know, for example, that emplyment more likely went up than down - which will be the case is estimated employment went up, regardless of whether it's statistically significant or not. [https://www.bls.gov/cps/methods/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf](https://www.bls.gov/cps/methods/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf) [https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesvarae.htm](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesvarae.htm)

Electrical_Trash_992

$WHR bag secured… $CPS next

Electrical_Trash_992

$CPS up a 10%… spring loaded for lower rates/cool inflation

Electrical_Trash_992

$CPS up 8%… small cap industrials are going to boom it inflation stays cool

Biotic101

**If they dilute by selling shares in the range of 17-60 USD, their cash position just grows and so does CPS despite the dilution.** Sorry, but you don't make sense. We talk about simple math here. And just look at Buffett, he has patiently built up a huge cash position to benefit from a potential downturn. GME is one of the few companies with no real debt and a lot of cash on hand, so they are well positioned for that scenario. I do not feel this discussion is going anywhere, you do not provide facts or data, only assumptions without backing them up.

brosako

Hmmm… For future using spread strategies! Is is recommended to use call spreads for being bullish Put spreads for being bearish Eliminates a lot of problems. Credit call spreads over price for neutral/slightly bearish Credit put spreads below price for neutral/slightly bullish You don’t want to sell CPS above price And CCS below 1. You want minimize maintenance of trades if you are wrong - more fees, more hustle, assignments 2. Do second trade when trade is profitable Get book options as investment strategy, learn every point there, it’s very important if you trade options Try to get advanced with debits spreads first. Credits are a slightly more complex Good luck

NoSignSaysNo

The literal existence of being home and watching their child so that CPS doesn't get involved for literal neglect is value intrinsically. If your partner wasn't staying at home, you would be paying for child care.

Connect_Boss6316

Great. So youre expecting the stock to rise leading upto earnings? Rising IV will help with the debit call spread but not with the CPS. Seems you're profiting mainly from delta, with assistance from IV. Cheers.

RMonroeski

That math isn’t mathing. What are the actual positions and entry dates and bases? You’d have to be insanely leveraged to double your net worth on this—the *general* expectation for a CPS is around 25%-50% profit since one gains value while the other loses it.

Electrical_Trash_992

$CPS moving up before earnings after the bell… thank me later

Electrical_Trash_992

$CPS calls before earnings

RockinOutCockOut

Bears get boners over this smallest things Imma call CPS on you degenerates

Jet_Threat_

Lmao, my dude, it is okay to say the Texas laws are backwards when they literally are. A study found that Texas ranks LAST in terms personal freedoms. Here are some facts for you: * You can’t gamble (casinos and sports betting are illegal), you can’t buy alcohol on Sundays, you can’t buy alcohol past midnight, you can’t buy fireworks for most of the year, or smoke weed. * THC oil possession is a felony in Texas and Texas has the harshest cannabis laws in the country * Despite being the 2nd largest state, Texas ranks 37 out of 50 in terms of available public land * Employers can fire you without a reason or cause * Voters can’t place constitutional amendments on ballots * Texas bans more books than any other state (including some very ironic ones like “V for Vendetta,” “The Year They Burned the Books,” and “Native America and the Question of Genocide”). * Over half of Texas public schools teach abstinence-only sex education, and 25% do not teach it at all. Books that mention the word or topic of sex are banned in high schools. * No bodily autonomy, and citizens are encouraged to report on people for helping anyone access abortions * Citizens also encouraged to snitch on parents helping trans kids look into gender care. CPS will be called to investigate, taking resources away from kids in actual abusive situations, which is a major problem. * Civil asset forfeiture…highway patrol can basically take your stuff when they want and good luck getting it back, even if you’re proven innocent. * Few travel/transportation options and Texas can construct loud, crappy highways (with no sidewalks) wherever they want, in spite of homeowner protests. I’m not even gonna get into the state penitentiary system, business/corporate laws, renter/homeowner laws, or the full extent of healthcare, religion, schools or LGBTQ treatment.

reddit_again__

Simply not true. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA Sales tanked during COVID, but CPS had issues well before that. This is a troubled company that may or may not turn around.

reddit_again__

CPS went way down before the pandemic, their high was back in 2018. Still a loss making company. This isn't it.

agedlemons

bagholding CPS for 20 days judging from your post history