DJIA

IanInElPaso

Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia are all in the DJIA and it’s only 30 companies with somewhat arbitrary weighting. Goldman Sachs is almost 9% of the fund. Not personally diversified enough for me.

geelinz

Dow denominated in Euros is unchanged over the last year. DJIA value is relative to dollars, dollar has been devalued.

Life_Eye_5457

No event, I will ride it thru all storms. Even in the Depression djia 380 in 1929 dropped to 40 by 1932, a 90% drop. If you bought at 40 u did well ,the Dow went to 180 by 1943 and back to 380 by 1953. Nobody lost 90% bc nobody bought all their stock in 1929. When you added dividends the DJIA broke even by 1943, A Dow chart will not show dividends in the chart you must add all dividends up and I did for a 70 yr period, 1929 to 2000 the return was 6.4 growth in DIA and 4.3% dividends, for a 10.7 return, I averaged between the 1929 high to 2000 and the 1932 low to 2000. From the low you made 12% and change from the high you made 8 % and change

EvolvingDior

You OK with DJIA staying below the pedo limit if it means we arrest all those sick fucks?

EvolvingDior

DJIA still below 50k. Are we arresting pedos yet?

Initial_Ad_9250

🥭 gonna let the DJIA close below 50k before Pres Day????? Preposterous!!

Rare-ish_Birb

Easily doable with PE multiples of 100 across the index. You just gotta believe that africa gets a middle class, South American countries join the middle kingdom powers, and DJIA members are poised to dominate all of those markets.

fenton7

Pam celebrating DJIA 50,000 was the biggest sell indicator of all time.

Good_Application6245

chile guys its needs to dump first before we hit DJIA 100k

geelinz

Yeah, DJIA denominated in Euros is flat.https://markets.ft.com/data/etfs/tearsheet/charts?s=DIA:AEX:EUR

jontestershaircut

Bondi going with the DJIA at record highs defense today was very autist and very powerful.

Rare-ish_Birb

GS, CAT and VZ the new kids on the DJIA block soaking up the capital leaving MSFT, AMZN and UNH.

Rich-Badger-7601

How much further does it need to go before they replace it with GOOGL on the DJIA?

Rich-Badger-7601

CRM's inspirational run as the worst stock on the DJIA makes me wonder if they kicked the wrong company to let NVDA in

Eastern-Joke-7537

I have a few DIA puts that I started buying late Friday near 50,000…. Closed most other positions other than Dividend ETF’s. For the past several months the indices have been doing a mini version of the DJIA from 1966-1982. So we could see a sell off. Either down soon into March or a high in March. Also planning on buying some more silver coins. But I might just scale in for the rest of the year. The comparable chart on silver recently might be the 1987 chart for stocks. Just a big blow out that turned out to just be a mid cycle (early cycle?) correction. Let’s see if the recent lows hold for a while. If stocks correct at least 10% then whatever jumps up first MIGHT carry the next rally. Could be blue chips/industrial stocks plus metals and crypto as hedges. Some clown in a garage is probably gonna invent an ai that turns Silicon Valley into the Rust Belt. Anyone around here have an old COBOL or machine code or Java textbook?

Eastern-Joke-7537

I have a DIA put for Friday that I bought late Friday when the DJIA hit Eleventy Trillion. I am not too optimistic about it.

jules13131382

DJIA pumps to 100,000 on this wonderful news!!

M18PowerKing

!bankbet DJIA 100,000 10y

Eastern-Joke-7537

DJIA at Fifty Trip Zero. STILL underperforming 1964 pocket change. 😂

Eastern-Joke-7537

The S&P 500 has the clearer chart (than the DJIA). I think we get some more Risk OFF/Warsh OFF days.

EvolvingDior

DJIA gonna continue to outperform NDX until the fall.

Kirko_Cousins

!banbet DJIA 100,000 1,079d

ATUGA

Market Summary in Emojis for Regards: DJIA: 👑 S&P 500: 📈 Nasdaq: 🩹 Russell 2000: 🐣 Overall: 🥂

ATUGA

Does a dead cat bounce lead to a new DJIA ATH?

TrashPanda_924

How many people sold off positions in the volatility yesterday? Only to have the DJIA hit a new 52 week high today. Wild times.

Rare-ish_Birb

DJIA 50,000 first

Successful-Tea-5733

DJIA just hit a new all taime high as of 9:57 AM February 6th, the year of our Lord 2026. The market is not down, big tech is down.

Maximum-Side-9391

Remember Uncle T only pays attention to the DJIA (which may be renamed soon) so unclear what he thinks. Maybe he'll say if people are smart they will own puts if they are worried but this economy is Main Street not Wall Street

EvolvingDior

DJIA beating the pants off NDX since Thanksgiving.

Im_Still_Here12

Tanking portfolio. What are you invested in. The DJIA and SP500 are both up since Trump has taken office so what are you going on about?

BLVCKYOTA

DJIA only thing making me hesitant rn. It’s been sort of leading the way for a few weeks if you’ve been watching.

Igotyoubaaabe

He tracks all the onion relays! He probably hacked the DJIA mainframe, too. 

Keljhan

>If you had 1000 bucks, and you need 30 bucks a year to live, if stocks crash 87%, you now have 130 dollars. 3% of that is 3.9 dollars. To withdraw the 30 dollars you need, you would be doing a withdrawal of 23%. That's not how withdrawal rates work, but I can see how you got there. When someone refers to a 3% rate being successful, that is a 3% rate of the initial principle, adjusted for inflation, every year. If you have $1000, you withdraw 30 the first year, 30\*(1+inflation) the second year, 30\*(1+inflation\*2) the second year, and so on. For the great depression, the DJIA dropped 12% on black tuesday, and about 89% peak to trough. However, it quickly tripled again in just a couple years, so your $30 withdrawals wouldn't have been a big part of your portfolio for long. You'd keep drawing down the principle at that rate for a while (the min value on that chart is the lowest remaining value for any retirement year for the given duration), going as low as $27 after 60 years if you withdrew 3.24%.

chinaski73

Rugpull, NASDAQ turned red and SPX and DJIA are heading that way. VoLaTiLiTy is the name of the game

Eastern-Joke-7537

Bitcoin? Gold? DJIA?

Fernyfern7

DJIA almost down 900 points

SB10Burner

Buy at every 1000 point DJIA drop until he TACOs again,

zeppo_shemp

my guess is the bonds and the international stocks are boosting yield, and DJIA also has a higher dividend yield than the S&P 500 at about 1.6% vs. 1.1%. international stocks typically pay higher dividends than US stocks. for VXUS vs. VTI, the dividend yield is about 3% vs. 1.1%. what type of bond fund(s)? an aggregate bond fund has a yield in the ~4% range, and yield might be higher from long-term bonds or lower-grade bonds.

shane1955

It’s likely because your DJIA component and Small Cap funds are pulling more weight. Perhaps your 20% allocation in fixed income/bonds is yielding significantly more in the current interest rate environment. It’s a solid "hidden" return to have.

LeftoftheDial1970

An additional 3.4% above how much DJIA and S&P went up over the past year (13.5% and 15.7%, respectively) is pretty good. Check whether your index funds matched or beat actuals.

usa_reddit

Here is my stack since 12/29/2025 SCHG 45% SCHD 25% SGOL (Just bailed after making 6%) SMH 20% with a 15% Trailing Stop GOOGLE with a 10% Trailing Stop (totally speculative, I think they are going to own AI after the bubble bursts, probably going to sell and wait until the next dip) SGOV (Parking cash here for dollar cost averaging and buying dips) VYMI (Just sold after making 2.5%) COF (Bought it when dropped 10% on Trump's push to 10% APR on Credit Cards, already made 3%, did a sell to cover) The S&P returned 1.5% this year and I am already up 3.5% I am not going to VOO and chill. I am going to be aggressive, buy the fear like COF, chase the SEMIs, and chase the growth with SCHG then use SCHD to keep plowing dividends back into more cash and stock. So far I have beaten the market nearly every day of the year (NASDAQ, DJIA, S&P 500) including today which they were all down and I was still up .07% I am not fanatical about it but watch it at least every couple of days and trade at lunch based on news. My goal is to hustle 20% or better this year and I have 16.5% to go and 3.5% just at Jan 16th isn't too bad. My macro investor friends keep screaming about the Schiller Cape and are predicting a crash around August-December timeframe 2026. Everything is so dynamic right now it scares me a little.

dedgecko

DJIA is a horrible metric to compare anything to, and anyone in r/investing knows that. Just stop arguing in bad faith.

Im_Still_Here12

Pelosi's investments are up over [16,000%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nancy-pelosi-beat-market-581-162100416.html) since 1987 when she took office. That beat the DJIA by about 14,000% over the same time period. She bought both Microsoft and Broadcom *before* one got a sweet government contract and the other split 10:1. Yeah, I'm sure she and her venture capitalist husband had no idea about either of those two. Had to be luck, amirite?

EyeSea7923

I can't believe I might actually buy DJIA calls

Gullyvuhr

Any bets on how many involved with authorizing this action shorted the DJIA in advance?

FriendlySceptic

10k invested in the year 2000 would be worth the following today: Gold: about $127,000 (~1170% total return) S&P 500: about $75,000 to $80,000 (~660% total return) Dow Jones: about $50,000 to $60,000 (~400% to 500% total return) Hold however is easily the most volatile of the 3 with huge up and down swings so it’s by definition a gamble. A lot of its gains happen in very short windows and if you miss them your outcome will be anemic. If you need cash you have a tangible risk of taking a loss. For this reason I’m primarily in the s&p 500. Gold In late 2000, gold was trading in the ballpark of about $270 per ounce.  As of early January 2026, gold prices are around $4,470 per ounce.  S&P 500 At the beginning of 2000 the S&P 500 index level was around 1,320.  As of January 9, 2026, the S&P 500 has hit roughly 6,966.  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) In early 2000 the Dow was roughly 10,000 to 11,000 points (it crossed above 11,000 in March of 2000).  As of January 9, 2026 the Dow sits around 49,500. 

usa_reddit

[Gold is on the march](https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/SGOL:NYSEARCA?window=1Y&comparison=DJIA%3ANYSEARCA&type=line)! It is outperforming the index funds :)

Command_ofApophis

If you want to be totally passive, pick an index without too many constituents and direct index it. DJIA and some Euro bonds, maybe. Or treat Berkshire like an ETF.

SuperEvilDinosaur

What kind of strategy led you to a 77% drop in 3 months? DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P are all up 4%+ in that span. And how much experience/education did you have with interesting before you did this? Sorry OP, you have a gambling problem. This isn't a "Tell my wife what I did and move past it" thing. This is a "you need to do serious work on yourself, and saving your marriage is secondary to that" things.

Revfunky

Price will tell you when the game has changed. Today is not the day. I’m happy to report there is no evidence of a down cycle. DJIA is at record levels. The NYSE Composite and Russell 3000 Index just closed at new all-time highs. We're entering the midterm year - Year 2 of the four-year cycle - and historically, this has been the most challenging stretch for markets. The weakness doesn't usually show up right away. More often, it begins toward the end of the first quarter, spills into early Q2, and lingers until markets find their footing again in the fall. We normally see relative weakness in Q2 and Q3 of the midterm year, followed by a powerful seasonal tailwind beginning in October. Now, anything could happen. The trend just gives us an outline to follow. Markets don’t owe us anything. I could go into more depth. Most of it is derived from the Stock Traders Almanac. The Santa Claus Rally is the first piece from Yale Hirsch’s January Trifecta, followed by the First Five Days and the January Barometer. When all three fire bullishly, market returns tend to be nothing short of spectacular.

Excellent_Brilliant2

45 years ago, buying $10k worth of silver would be worth $23k now. $10k worth of DJIA would be worth $600k now. index funds are mostly HODL, metals are a timing gamble

Eastern-Joke-7537

Since 1964 the DJIA has tied pocket change (silver half dollars). Thanks for playing!!!

OverheadPress69

1. Get a birds-eye view of the company. What does the company do? How do they make their money? What sector are they in? Tailwinds/headwinds in the industry? Who is the CEO? What is current sentiment? What direction is the business going and what stage in the business cycle is it at currently? 2. Look a little deeper into the fundamentals of the stock. I personally look at: market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, margin growth, book value, forward PE, EPS, debt, FCF, revenue/margins of each of the business’ market sectors (ie Amazon’s retail financials and their AWS financials). I am personally looking for two things here — 1, proof of growth potential and 2, disqualification. If any of these numbers are red flags based on my understanding established in the first step, I move on or dig deeper depending on the company. Basically, you want to see profitability, growth potential, and the ability to survive if something goes wrong. 3. Look below the hood. This can often tell you more than anything else. Are there share buybacks going on? What is the dividend history? What is the short ratio? What level of institutional investment is there? What are industry analysts’ price targets? Are there any catalysts on the horizon? Potential regulatory hurdles? Is the industry faring well? Who are the primary competitors? What is the company’s position in the industry? How can they grow/maintain market share? Who are the business’ customers? Are they stable? Is there a backlog? What about their suppliers? Are they sensitive to interest rates, commodity prices, consumer sentiment, etc.? Is their success dependent on another company? Is a M&A angle in play? What ETFs are the company included in, how is the fund performing, and will it be added to the DJIA/S&P500/QQQ etc. in the near future? 4. Look at the stock’s price. Compare to 52w high and low. Compare to ATH & ATL. Look at volume patterns. See if there is a base of support in the chart or resistance spots. Compare to the chart of similar companies. Compare to the S&P500. Looking for momentum & support levels; I’m a believer in time in the market, so this step is primarily to determine position sizing, if I’ll be DCAing or lump buying, etc. 5. Check out different sources to see if anyone has information you missed. I personally start on Reddit, then use some combination of YouTube, Yahoo! Finance, Morningstar, Moody’s, IBD, Bloomberg, WSJ, & CNBC. 6. Look at your portfolio. How would this stock change its composition? Does it improve your expected returns? Add/reduce volatility? Affect the Sharpe ratio? What sizing should you use? Does it improve diversification? Is it redundant? What is the r/r to adding it? What is the opportunity cost of tying up money in this stock? 7. At this point, you should have a really solid feel for the business. You should know whether you want to buy or not. If you do, pull the trigger now. You have done the research. Trust yourself. If you don’t, put it on the watchlist, and note why you didn’t buy. If something materially changes, it may become a good investment. 8. Come up with your thesis. Why are you buying, what are the exit strategies, what will you do to mitigate risk. Plan for a worst case, best case, and base case scenario. None of this requires advanced quant analysis, specialized data or tools, or anything more than about an hour of your time. I research 2-3 stocks per day. I have a running list of 1000+ stocks sorted by industry & market cap within the industry. I only launch this process if I want to buy. It’s worked well for me. You don’t need to spend too much time on any one step, but unsatisfactory results for any of the steps disqualifies it from investment in my strategy. You should at least consider each of the factors I’ve listed, though you don’t have to go down the list like a checklist. Use your brain, not your heart. Most importantly, write things down. Anything you feel may be important. Start a fresh sheet of paper/new document for your notes and findings while you’re researching each stock and then save it in a folder regardless of if you buy or not. You’ll very quickly build up a reference library of DD that you can return to for many reasons. Perhaps to invest in the future if the situation changes, perhaps to look back at successes and see what led to the success, perhaps to look back and see where you erred in logic if a stock doesn’t meet your expectations. Information is power. The more you do this (and not rely on others) the more confident you’ll be in your ability to analyze a stock. I’m at the point where I don’t really care what anyone else says about a stock if I’ve researched it and formed an opinion. I trust my ability more than anyone else’s, and you will too. Trust me. Dm if you’d like more info/guidance

Affectionate-Idea690

**on Tuesday, December 16, 2025**, the **VIX (CBOE Volatility Index)** chart is signaling a sharp increase in market anxiety. Often called the "Fear Gauge," the VIX is currently in a clear **intraday uptrend**. The VIX opened higher today at **17.28** (vs. yesterday's close of 16.50), reflecting immediate concern over the delayed jobs data. While it retreated slightly from its morning highs of **17.61**, it remains well above yesterday's levels. * **Inverse Correlation:** The upward move in the VIX chart is a direct mirror of the "Downtrend" status seen in the major indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DJIA). As stocks have sold off due to weak economic data, the demand for portfolio protection (hedging) has driven the VIX higher. * **Resistance Levels:** The chart is currently testing resistance in the **17.50** zone. A sustained break above this could signal further downside for equities as we head into the market close. * **Short-Term Momentum:** Technical indicators like the **MACD** and **Stochastics** are showing "Buy" signals for volatility, suggesting that the momentum currently favors further spikes rather than a return to the "calm" sub-15 levels seen earlier this month.

EastReauxClub

Those of you who obsessively post about the 22nd letter of the alphabet as if it will save us just sound like paranoid schizophrenics who don't know that 2008 had a big ass V every month that would inevitably fade into an elevator to hell by weeks end. September 29, 2008, saw the largest one-day drop in the DJIA's history at the time, but less than a month later, the DJIA rose over 936 points in a single day. If you bought that "V" you would have ended down 20%+ by March 2009 lol I ain't saying we're crashing, I'm just saying V don't mean shit.

pineapplekiwipen

NVDA has been trading like a boomer shit ever since it got added to DJIA the curse continues

tachyonvelocity

As someone in Small cap value, and another ATH day like the DJIA, I would suggest people to switch into small value. But, privately, I would be selling into your buys and starting to nibble at big tech.

Organic_Tone_3459

I am moving money into SCHD and the DJIA index for this very reason. Also got some money in Energy positions

EvangelineRain

That’s why I stick to ETFs when the market is down and I’m buying the dip. Looking at the history of the DJIA and seeing how many of these large blue chip corporations eventually went bankrupt, I’m over picking individual stocks for a buy and hold strategy. They can still be fun gambling for short term plays in bull markets.

RPCV1968

The Fearless Forecast is a statistical model that measures probabilities. The model has a Brier Score of 0.18. As for data, you can get it from Yahoo Finance. I use the most recent 500 closing prices of the DJIA. I probably am beating most hedge funds as most of my stock/option positions are delta-neutral, and taken for the long term, designed to get an annualized return that is 3-4 times the relevant Treasury.

RPCV1968

Planning tactics aligned with **The Fearless Forecast** for Dec 8, 2025 for DJIA: * Stop-Loss: Set at 47,900 (below recent swing low). * Target: 48,300 (near upper projected close).

RPCV1968

Here is a detailed comparison of the December 5, 2025 DJIA **FEARLESS Forecast** versus the actual close, including intraday volatility and regime probabilities: * The forecast, **with the mean reversion filter added (see comments),** predicted a moderately bullish day with an expected return of about +0.30% and a directional bias of roughly 65% chance of an Up day. * The actual DJIA close on December 5, 2025 was 47,954.99, confirming a positive gain consistent with the forecast. * Intraday volatility on December 5, 2025 was moderate, with the CBOE DJIA Volatility Index (VXD) around 16–17, indicating a typical level of market uncertainty—not elevated or subdued. * Regime inference for that day showed a dominant Bull regime probability (\~70%), with smaller contributions from Range and Bear regimes, supporting the momentum-driven forecast. * No significant mean-reversion overlay event was active, so the model tilted toward continuation rather than reversal. * The actual close showed the model’s probabilistic range was well calibrated. Overall, the model’s forecast for December 5, 2025 aligned well with market behavior, capturing both the directional move and volatility environment accurately.

BlackFlames01

Then, I recommend some light reading regarding the DJIA Decennial Pattern: https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/decennial_pattern/

RPCV1968

**The Fearless Forecast** for the DJIA for Dec 5, 2025 (SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down) : Tomorrow’s Fearless Forecast (Dec 5, 2025) * **Bucket:** Mixed sequence with 3 Ups in last 5. * **Probabilities:** SU ≈ 38%, LU ≈ 18%, SD ≈ 24%, LD ≈ 20%. * **Expected return:** ≈ +0.12%. * **Projected close:** \~47,910–47,950. * **Directional bias:** \~56% chance of an Up day. The Fearless Forecast expects to be directionally correct on about 70% of its forecasts. It is based on statistics, not technical mumbo-jumbo. It uses the closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the past 60 trading days as its data-set. Each day, the latest close is added, and the earliest dated close is dropped. Check back tomorrow for the next Fearless Forecast.

OrdinaryWeekly7468

Like a damn anvil on DJIA, lmao 

Largeshmarge

Hard core bear porn - A major single-day stock market drop, often considered one of the worst in history, occurred on December 1, 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 679 points, a 7.7% decline, which at the time was its 12th worst single-day percentage drop in history. The S&P 500 similarly plunged nearly 9%.

WickOfDeath

What do you think? Googles TPU thing is apaprently cheaper and far less energy hungry than the Nvidia AI things. That's Deepseek 2.0 and Michael B. has possibly just guessed that one day or another Nvidia is toast. Huawei is planning an AI chip, so Qualcomm does. AMD makes TPUs as well... so what? We still have Nvidias order book. I am currently moving away from native tech stocks, they all carry the "AI disease" in them I now trade the DOW industrial (DJIA)

Wowmuchrya

What they do is look at what stocks they have and how much profit they are up on them. Then they look at every stocks weight in the SPX/NDX/DJIA and their weight and see how they can most effectively drop the indices while taking profit on their long positions. This is being done 100’s if not 1000’s of times a minute while the selloff continues because they need to account for market fluctuations and other people selling. It goes both ways though. When they want an index to go up because of their long calls they’ll buy the heaviest weighted stocks (mag7). If they want to dump it it would be much harder to dump some trash low tier ndx stocks like Lululemon vs Nvidia.

Eastern-Joke-7537

I don’t remember if Cisco peaked in March 2000 or later. I DO remember the Nasdaq reversing one day…. Up big before lunch, down big after. It was the first week or so and the whole index peaked less than two weeks later. JDS Uniphase had a top (or close to it) that day. I don’t think all the tech stocks/dot com stocks peaked at the same time. SDLI was a big name — eventually merged with JDSU I think. The other big tech/dot com names were, of course, EBay, Amazon, AOL and Yahoo but they all peaked at different times it seems like. DoubleClick had one heck of a run at one point. Also, the telecom/phone stocks like Qualcomm and Erricson and Nokia. The DJIA peaked in January. The S&P 500 might have had a double top but one of the peaks was in December 1999.

IAmTryingTooLearn

Imagine being #Masa right now DJIA 45,752.26 -386.51 (-0.84%) NASDAQ 22,078.05 -486.18 (-2.15%) S&P 500 6,538.76 -103.40 (-1.56%) Russell 2000 2,305.11 -42.78 (-1.82%) Time (ET) 04:33:06 PM

OrdinaryWeekly7468

Damn, are we gonna do a 1000 pt swing today on the DJIA?

LongQualityEquities

You would have bought a bunch of stock from the DJIA through a broker.

IntolerantModerate

Let me tell you what's going to happen over next 12 months... 1. NVDA will beat earnings. Markets go 🚀 2. SCOTUS say 🥭 tariffs no bueno, so tariffs go bye-bye, markets go 🚀🚀 3. Treasury has to refund Tariffs, markets go 🚀🚀🚀 4. Tariffs gone, prices start to flatten/drop, Fed curs rates 4 times, markets go 🚀🚀🚀🚀 5. All the hedgedunds like, fuck, if I don't want to blow Bubba behind a Wendy's dumpster I gotta buy back in, markets go 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 DJIA $60k, NDAQ $30k.

brighterside0

Just after the 1929 peak and days before the crash, Yale economist Irving Fisher famously said that stock prices had reached a “permanently high plateau,” and that he expected the market to be “a good deal higher” in a few months. Stock markets raced upward during the first half of 1987. By late August, the DJIA had gained 44 percent in a matter of seven months, stoking concerns of an asset bubble. In September 1999, The Atlantic ran an article by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett titled “Dow 36,000”, arguing that the long bull market was not a bubble and that stocks were actually too cheap relative to their risk. They claimed prices were “destined to rise dramatically in the coming years.” Ben Bernanke (Fed Chair) In his March 28, 2007 testimony to Congress, Bernanke acknowledged problems in subprime mortgages but said that the impact on the broader economy and financial markets “seems likely to be contained.” 2020 SEC complaint against John McAfee documents that: In July 2017, he tweeted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2020. roflmao - literally same sentiment in '29, '87, '00 and '08 guy in different words. I for one have saved your comment and my body is ready for your loss porn pics.

deviltrombone

Perfect fed chair for this regime, Always-Grinning Monkey and Trump Loyalist Kevin Hassett, author of "DOW 36,000", in which he called for the DJIA to reach that level in a couple of years, published in, wait for it... 1999.

betitallon13

I was young, but I recall the comparisons to 1987 had already started percolating in 1997, when there was a pretty good sized daily drop in the fall, and everyone watched the next morning to see if it would happen again, and initially the DOW (which more people paid attention to at the time) was down something like 500 points (which was much more substantial against a 7500 point DJIA), and then (I believe) Microsoft, IBM and Intel (and others) stepped in with HUGE buyback commitments, juicing their own stocks along with the boarder market. Going forward from there everyone figured it was just delaying the inevitable, but no one wanted to miss out on the gravy train, so the S&P still nearly doubled, the NASDAQ tripled, and the DOW rose another 40% into the 2000 crash.

Whatdosheepdreamof

There was a 20% drop in DJIA from ATH to the lows which I made bank on before stimulus. This is revisionist history.

Whatdosheepdreamof

The DJIA dropped like 20% over a 5 month period as well, which I made bank on. So there definitely was a crash before stimulus occured... This is absolutely revisionist history.

Skepticalpositivity9

This is getting useless. An index tracks stocks within the market, but every index is constructed differently. The most commonly cited indexes (S&P and Nasdaq) are cap weighted indexes so the weighting of the companies in the index are based solely on market cap. If the market cap rises, the index buys more and vice versa. It is because of this construction that these indexes have gotten concentrated. The DJIA for example is a price weighted index which essentially holds one share of each underlying stock, thus the index is not influenced by market cap. Then you have equal weighted indexes which are pretty self explanatory. There’s other types of indexes as well constructed in different ways. Just because the most commonly cited indexes are cap weighted doesn’t mean those are the only way to represent the market. When people express concern about AI and tech concentration, they are worried about the impact those 19 companies will have on their cap weighted index position. It only takes a few companies to shit the bed performance wise to bring down the performance of the overall index because the index is so heavily weighted in these companies. There is plenty of literature on non-cap weighted indexes. Just because the most common index is cal weighted doesn’t mean it is always the best one to hold at all times. Why not weight companies by revenue or earnings to factor in their actual current economic impact? Why not weight them by cash flow? Why not buy an equal amount of all stocks? None of these methods are inherently wrong, they’re just different methods to represent the market. I’m not anti cap weighting but it’s important to understand how the index is constructed so you know what risks you are exposed to.

Vast_Cricket

No, Chinese stocks were never meant for long term hold like US with DJIA or S&P stocks. Institutions comprise of less than 20% of total volume, but they are a stabilizing force during market downturns. Most are speculated by retailer, pensioners for short term trading. Almost only employ optional trades.

Curious-Package-9429

The bull argument is that the Fed will always print money to stave off recession, and that money will find its way into the markets. The DJIA is a boomer piggy bank, which holds only freshly minted currency. Wish I was joking.

Much_Mycologist_7994

I use a combination. So while I know I should have a bigger retirement savings. I am ok for a month or so, but I use FEPI which is in the Fang index and a combination of other high yield funds YMAG, QQQI, SPYI, DJIA, RYLG and some other ones for international, O&G pipelines, Defense, and REIT. But I prefer to have the dividends just deposit in my Robinhood account so I can gain interest on the balance and then when dips occur I load up on what ever I feel is appropriate. Then as a benefit the dividends paid also can be used in an emergency like now at the moment where my wife is out of work and unemployment is being difficult. So I can tap into the dividends paid when needed, gain interest on cash payments from said dividends when I don’t feel like it is quite right to buy, then load up in volume on dips. It has really helped keep my cost basis and overall return really in check and solid even on some riskier high yield plays. My plan is to then never sell any of the stocks and live fully off the dividends in a few years once I stabilize the holdings a bit for risk. But why like this is I invested heavily in FEPI, and YMAG first which has the highest payout and they basically keep my portfolio growing and expanding with out a ton of extra investment from my normal living expenses. I mean do your research and see what works for you. I know I eat a bit due to races from this strategy but I am ok with it and have a month of dividends each year pay that bill. But so far it has worked well to provide emergency funds and also be building to my retirement.

Eastern-Joke-7537

Yeah. It’s a bubble… AND??? Outside chance at Nasdaq 30,000 and DJIA 50,00 before the next correction. Support level would then be the mid-May high in the DJIA around 43,000.

CEOofBeanz

DJIA is nearly 5X what it was in 2010 and people wonder how stocks keeping going up

kiwimancy

DJIA is price weighted. Equal weight is equally weighted.

youbenchbro

Is everyone really leaving the S&P and pivoting to DJIA?

Eastern-Joke-7537

Calls until DJIA 50,000 then… puts?

stockprimo

1. 10/29/25, Wednesday: modest downward open scenario: * S&P 500 down ~-0.5% * DJIA down ~-0.3% * Nasdaq 100 down ~-0.8%

stockprimo

10/29/25, Wednesday: 80% probability: modest downward open scenario: * S&P 500 down -0.5% * DJIA down -0.3% * Nasdaq 100 down -0.8%

nigelnyc1

someone has plugged the plug on SPY, DJIA. My bet is one major company is probably missing this afternoon.

noahdvs

Changing sector weights to underweight sectors you think are more volatile probably won't be as helpful as you think. XLK (S&P 500 Technology) and XLC (S&P 500 Communications) have better 3 year alpha and Sharpe ratio than all the other S&P 500 sectors even though tech and communications are supposed to be riskier. XLP (S&P 500 Consumer Staples/Defensive) has worse returns and risk adjusted returns than IUSB (total USD bond market) over the past 3 years. Healthcare is another sector that's supposed to be safer, but the performance has been abysmal this year because of UnitedHealth. You thought DIA would be safer because it's supposed to be more spread across sectors, but UnitedHealth has noticeably dragged it down. DIA's limited holdings make it somewhat riskier than other index funds since it depends more on individual stocks. the DJIA is also weighted by price, which is a pretty nonsensical way to weight an index in the first place. If BRK-A was in DIA, it would be 99% of the portfolio. Ultimately, choosing to overweight a "safer" sector doesn't necessarily mean the value of your investment is safer, especially when adjusted for inflation. This also applies to asset classes, but at least a rate cutting cycle is beneficial for bond prices. Even foreign bonds are somewhat affected by rates in the US because foreign bonds are compared with US bonds. I used 3 year measurements because that's what my brokerage's app shows. Over the past 5 years, XLP has clearly outperformed IUSB.

scwt

The DJIA is not the 30 largest companies. It’s 30 companies that are arbitrarily selected by a committee. And it’s price-weighted, so it’s not that useful. Goldman Sachs is the single largest component of the index and it’s not even one of the top 30 US companies by market cap.

VidalEnterprise

Based on research I did years ago on stock market returns, I came to the conclusion that it is better to spread your risk over more stocks, and my favorite was always the S&P 500 index. Those are the 500 largest stocks, out of 4 - 5,000 stocks in the US. Some people like the Dow Jones Industrials, which is just the top 30 stocks, but even those have risks. Companies like General Electric and General Motors and Citigroup had financial problems and had to be removed from the DJIA. So to conclude, investing only in the top 10 is no guarantee of future returns at all.

1UpUrBum

Black Monday [https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/equities/black-monday/](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/equities/black-monday/) *"On Monday morning, the crash started in Hong Kong. The crash continued throughout all of Asia and all during the Asian trading session, ... By the time the U.S. stock markets opened, stocks were virtually in freefall. By the end of the day, the DJIA had dropped by more than 500 points and the S&P 500 by more than 55 points."* (biggest drop ever) Nobody ever talked about stocks back then. That day that's all everybody talked about everywhere. It was like the world was going to end. I was a kid. I knew what to do. The problem was I couldn't open a brokerage account. I got started about month later.

Ok_Currency_6390

I mean you really don't have to be a genius. That's what I don't get. I guess you could look at it this way: There's no magic in an index. It's not like the people picking stocks for the index are these wizards crouched around a crystal ball. Just look at the top holdings of your favourite indexes and copy them if you're that determined to not think. The problem is decades of sales pitches from mutual funds and constant propaganda on CNBC, along with a few ridiculously stupid books (a random walk down wall street being the worst culprit) have all convinced people that the market is magic and trying to beat it is hopeless. Well, the reason these indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA) have done so well since the 80s is simply because of the Fed put. Well, that's going away. The US is running out of runway to keep funding the stock market without causing massive inflation. If you're not buying businesses because of their inherent value, at some point here you are going to lose a lot of money. Has happened many times before, it's going to happen again. Until then, buy and hold!

ToHellWithShorts

Took Microsoft down to $13 a share from $55 in 2000 and MSFT did not see $55 until 2015 I remember Mark Haines calling it the bottom on CNBC. He was right. I also remember when the DJIA closed at $6900 Obama said “It’s probably a good time to invest in the stock market” but with a mildly, cynical, almost defeated tone. It honestly was something no one had ever seen before. I also remember a CNBC commentator saying “it’s too late to sell” I was buying into that final crash and made some money on the way back up. I had also just completed a $325,000 addition to raise my family of 4 in so unfortunately I only had around $40,000 cash and of course you need that money to live off of and keep as “emergency fund”. If I had some balls I would have taken a $300,000 line of credit on my home or refinanced the loan at 3.5% 30 year fixed and would have dumped it all in the SP 500 because the recovery was solid. We went from 6600 in March 2009 back to 9000 by July 2009. This was an epic bounce and stocks were literally doubling from those March lows. When this kind of bear market happens again, I will get it right this time around!

Raveen396

Assuming you invested in DJIA: The money you invested in March is now up 10% since then. The money you invested 2 weeks ago is barely down 1%. Don't be dramatic.

Afraid_Competition84

There is something I do all the time when it comes to index funds that follow the major indexes. I show people a chart of the DJIA's performance since its inception. Zoomed out it's just an arrow going up nonstop. And I say, "Do you think that is an accident? No, our whole economy is designed for this to happen no matter what." If you don't need the money you're investing within the next 5-10 years, just go with a major index fund. Unless you feel confident investing in foreign markets (which has tons of risk), you might as well ride the tail of the dragon and assume that the up arrow will keep going up. Of course almost no one likes what I'm saying. And I see all these 401Ks that are basically static in performance, and I just can't believe it. The short term fluctuations of major indexes spooks people. But trying to play it "safe" in the US is a losing battle, because the designed inflation (which is done to benefit the market) eats you alive. You will lose a ton of wealth trying not to "lose" money.

therealCatnuts

I started b school in 1999. Watched the DJIA hit 10K and then never hit it again. 

movdqa

I was responding to "No one actually invested in a DJIA index fund". The marketcap is only $50 million so it's not particularly popular but there are people that buy it.