Reddit Posts
$CJMB chart after the recent move
$CJMB Watchlist: Is the recent run losing momentum?
My Approach to Finding and Trading Momentum Leaders
My Approach to Finding and Trading Momentum leaders.
Richtech Robotics General Analysis and Earnings Date Discussion
Richtech Robotics is a smouldering powder keg: an update
Breakout Forming: $XOS Low Float Green Energy Data Center
Breakout Forming: XOS Low Float Green Energy Data Center
Breakout Setting Up: $XOS Low Float Green Energy Data Center
30+ days of 0dte spx. Sizing, exits, and drawdown control
Why I believe RICHTECH ROBOTICS is primed to move
If NDX/M2 Is the Roadmap, is a 25% SPX Correction Next?
Insane low float play last Friday (STAK) — and why I almost missed it
Journaling and Analyzing stocks with a web app certainly makes things easier
Moving Averages Explained: SMA vs EMA, the Golden Cross & the Death Cross (Beginner's In-Depth Guide)
Mentions
Is MACD on daily and weekly crossing over. What is RSI trend like on daily and weekly. What is weekly EMA 20. Can I have a dark roast venti.
It has to bounce hard off $150. Right between EMA22 and EMA11. I think calls here will pay.
Every time SPY goes under it’s 50EMA these posts start cropping up, I’ve lost count how many did not in fact prediction a correction and we were at new ATHs shortly after
today the EMA 10 is king
SPY bounced from 50 EMA (758) at least
CYCU worth watching this morning CYCU caught my scanner this morning. Sitting around $3.58, above the 9 EMA, RSI around 55, and the recent 1-min volume came in roughly 3x its short-term average on my chart. The level I'm watching is $3.60. If it can break and actually hold that with volume, $3.65 looks like the next important test / prior resistance. Not calling a moonshot and not telling anybody to buy it — just one that's on my watchlist because the setup is getting interesting. $3.60 → $3.65. Let's see if buyers show up. Position: none currently.
Cover call actually sucks, its better to just buy at the 200 day MA and sell when it is eventually above both 50 day and 200 day EMA and breaks 3 EMA at RSI 80 or at 1.61 fibbonnaci. Hits 200 day EMA 2 to 4 times a year for over a decade. Covered calls is garbage
I bought March $17.5 leaps; slightly down. It broke below the 11/22 EMA today, not a good sign. Needs to get back above $14.30 asap.
Know this sub isn’t for advice. But don’t just blindly buy Google because you think it’ll bounce from the 200-day EMA like it did earlier this yr. Google is no longer doing buybacks. The floor that was once there is no longer flooring. Wait for resistance/bounce confirmation at the 200 EMA. Don’t just buy blind.
Ive been hearing about graphene for almost a year. Nothing really stands out right now. HGRAF chart looks good, recent drop but if EMA levels hold this could be worth a shot.
I'm not following because I sense an inconsistency. You're saying space out the trailing stop loss, which I agree with and then you're saying put it on the MA. But isn't that where the demand zone resides? And isn't that where stocks tend to bounce back? Here's how I think I take what you've shared (thank you!) and put it into practice for myself. AI cleaned up the following so don't get nervous... **Keep the MA as the anchor, move the stop off it.** Trail at `10EMA − 1.5×ATR(14)`, or use a proper Chandelier stop (`highest high since entry − 3×ATR`). Same logic you used, just positioned outside the noise band rather than inside it. **Trail on closes only.** This is probably the single highest-leverage change and it's independent of which volatility measure you use. An intraday touch of the 10 EMA is a nothing event on a momentum name; a *daily close* through it is real information. **Use ATR for the offset specifically because of gaps.** If you're swinging overnight, the gap is the risk you actually eat. ADR is high-to-low only — it structurally ignores the exact risk that kills swing positions. That's a real, defensible reason to prefer it for *spacing*, and it doesn't require you to say ADR is wrong for anything else. Back to me now... A wider stop means bigger losses so I have to cut size proportionally on the way down. Let me know if you rejected ATR and if so, why. Thanks again for sharing what you've learned.
Just vibe trading with EMA 50 and 200 rejection and breakthru. Switch between 1m 5m and 15m. Most of my plays are <15 mins hold max
for anyone asking how I screen these, I start with every US listed biotech under $10 with a dated catalyst, then check cash/runway, short interest, bio hedgefunds, insider buys and the options chain around the actual event date. Anything with under \~6 months runway is usually an automatic no for me, because at that point the financing risk matters more than the catalyst. after that I actually dig into the trial endpoint, control arm/standard of care, how strong the benefit really is, safety, and whether FDA/EMA has accepted similar endpoints or drugs in that setting before. Then I decide if the setup is actually worth the risk. Happy to break down any ticker if someone wants to challenge a number.
This semiconductor leader has been consolidating right around the 200 EMA for two weeks now, with volume drying up. Coiling up for a big move. If it breaks above resistance with volume, there’s tons of upside. If it breaks below the 200, we’re testing last year's lows.
For anyone asking how I screen these, I start with every US listed biotech under $10 with a dated catalyst, then check cash/runway, short interest, bio hedgefunds, insider buys and the options chain around the actual event date. Anything with under \~6 months runway is usually an automatic no for me, because at that point the financing risk matters more than the catalyst. after that I actually dig into the trial endpoint, control arm/standard of care, how strong the benefit really is, safety, and whether FDA/EMA has accepted similar endpoints or drugs in that setting before. Then I decide if the setup is actually worth the risk. Happy to break down any ticker if someone wants to challenge a number.
Pretty much. Entry is a 1 minute close under its 20 bar EMA with hourly RSI under 45, so it buys the breakdown at the ask, 2% OTM, 14 DTE. Exit is a chop index over 61, the move turned to noise. 35 of 39 closes were that exit, 4 were stops. The word retrace isn't in the rule anywhere.
Buy on pullback to key technical levels. Strong stocks in uptrend usually find support at 21d EMA. Wait for confirmation of support before buying
Buy calls when it dips to EMA.
I’m working on scalping/momentum trading. I use 1-minute charts with EMA9, VWAP, RSI and volume, looking for support or a breakout/retest. I’m trying to take smaller repeatable moves and keep losses tight instead of holding and hoping. Still learning and tightening the rules every day.
It’s definitely going towards EMA55.
Technically just closed above the 12/22 EMA. Could rocket up.
Every trade needs to have a thesis if a trader is taking trading seriously. So even LEAPS need to be entered in at a sensible area on the chart - maybe a monthly higher low, a pullback to monthly EMA12, or a breakout of a long term base. What was your thesis? A key feature of LEAPS should be being deep ITM. So that the contracts trade at nearly 1:1 with the underlying. Your $100 strike makes it a low probability trade with upside if the stock goes parabolic. But ASTS isn’t about to ignite and has a noticeable overhead supply on the chart. Sure, some unexpected news can always happen to cause a big surge. But again, it’s a low probability. So the main takeaway is that any trade, regardless of the chosen instrument, should have a thesis, with a setup, a signal and a trigger. Good luck!
TTD above the 12/22EMA looks like it's ready to run
$336 or lower is a good buy opportunity for TSLA. Not touching it before then. Wedged between 55/22 EMA
Just entered NVDA multi day swing longs. In NVDA 230C Oct 16 at 8.70 each. Will add at a 50% gap fill and retest of the 9/21 day EMA. Will also look to add leaps there.
Today might be a good day but contracts are expensive AF ================================================================================ SPY — MANUAL REVIEW ================================================================================ Fidelity Grade: NO TRADE YET Manual note: CALL leads at 51/110, but the grade is NO TRADE. Wait for stronger alignment before a manual entry. \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stage: ACTIVE TRADING Candles today: 32 (min 20) Time: 09:01:46 AM CT \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price: 772.12 VWAP: 772.14 EMA9: 772.13 EMA20: 772.08 RSI: 51.6 RVOL: 2.45x OR High: 772.84 OR Low: 771.47 Regime: RANGE\_CHOP Signal age: 0.2s \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CALL score: 51/110 PUT score: 46/110 ▶ Fidelity Bias: CALL Confidence: 51/110 ▶ Fidelity Action: WAIT ▶ Fidelity Entry Timing: 0/100 — WAIT Fidelity Direction Reasons: • Watch: No clear directional alignment Contract guidance: No contract action — no current manual entry trigger. ================================================================================ ================================================================================ QQQ — MANUAL REVIEW ================================================================================ Fidelity Grade: NO TRADE Manual note: CALL leads at 43/110, but the grade is NO TRADE. Wait for stronger alignment before a manual entry. \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stage: ACTIVE TRADING Candles today: 32 (min 20) Time: 09:01:46 AM CT \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price: 720.29 VWAP: 720.00 EMA9: 720.36 EMA20: 720.36 RSI: 49.6 RVOL: 0.85x OR High: 721.52 OR Low: 718.18 Regime: RANGE\_CHOP Signal age: 0.2s \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CALL score: 43/110 PUT score: 38/110 ▶ Fidelity Bias: CALL Confidence: 43/110 ▶ Fidelity Action: WAIT
$218 at the 22EMA. If that breaks, it could go down a lot more.
Spy reclaimed EMA20 with a crossing 9. Seems bullish but good luck.
She’s got one more big dump in her once the 21 EMA crosses the 50 EMA
100%. You notice it's struggling to get past the 22EMA? I'm hoping it hits the centre of the VWAP at 576 by end of day.
SPY is just dancing on the 200EMA, just bounce off and fly to the moon already
use my website 😄 [ALGOTREND.SITE](http://ALGOTREND.SITE) , it has indicators, for EMA pips, and RSI, Analyst forecasts, and tells you for a year out best Return on investment call options, seriously. The best website that is unknown by far. Fib Breakout , Breakdown on actual levels of which ever stock you looking at, not trying to brag, but check it out before you talk crap. Amazing Site!
You should. From a technical, it’s very bullish (EMA 22 crosses above the 55 means all systems go)
nasdaq not being able to break above EMA is kinda scary
XRP bout to test its EMA200 for the first time since crypto started peaking again, might worth a watch
If you’re already up nicely and this was just a small test position, I’d be tempted to lock in some profit here. The EMA bounce played out, but that doesn’t mean the move can’t pull back. Taking some off and letting the rest ride seems like a solid approach.
RDDT hitting the 22EMA; it's likely breakthrough here, but hedging with puts would be a great play!
Thanks for sharing. I'm in. Financials look strong and it's also testing 10/20 EMA breakout today.
EMA20 on the 1min is bedrock
new EMA 20 consolidation
Relief bounce of EMA20 calls it is today ;)
Spy sitting on EMA20 after days of selling. Gunna rip tomorrow. Calls it is. 😉
BBAI. Below 50 and 100 EMA, this a new indicator for me so not 100% sure if I am using it properly just yet. Correct me if I am wrong but I am seeing support at $2.97 and resistance at $3.25. What are you seeing for the swing? Always appreciate your contributions, Blacksmith.
First, I want to say that I'm more of a visual and practical learner. I've lost tens of thousands, probably $50k or more, over the past few years trying to trade options. Doesn't matter if they're 0DTE, earnings plays, or just WSB stupidity. For the past few months, I've been trading 0DTE SPXW options, and yesterday, I lost another $900. I've lost about $15k since Spring. I feel like an idiot trying to trade because quite often, my wins are small and I exit the trade too early. Then when I lose, it's a huge, loss because I lose due to chop or just a bad entry, or because I'm doubling down. I use Trading View with the Ripster EMA Cloud and RSI indicators, and the SPX GEX bot on Discord as tools to determine my trades. Clearly I'm doing something wrong. I want to start from the beginning and learn how to trade properly. Being a visual and practical learner, I think learning from YouTube and paper trading a good start for me. Is [Jdub Trades](https://www.youtube.com/@JdubTrades) good to learn from? I've been browsing Reddit all day and the general consensus seems to be to learn off YouTube or books, and don't pay for courses. With regards to paper trading, who can I paper trade options with in Canada? IBKR doesn't let me paper trade because I don't have an active account. Their support is also generally terrible.
The “don’t be a bag holder” lesson is a big one for me too. I’m trying to get much better at accepting that a setup failed, taking the loss and moving on instead of waiting for it to come back. I like your dip strategy too. How do you decide when a dip is actually a buying opportunity versus a stock that’s just starting to fall apart? Do you use support, volume, EMA/VWAP or mostly price action? That’s one of the things I’m working on now — waiting for confirmation instead of automatically buying the dip
FN looks kinda similar but it doesn't have a great support immediately below it.the level I'm watching for that stock is around 420-430. If it undercuts that range, shakes out and finished above on the day, it may see a small rebound back towards its 21 EMA.
It was beaten down after earnings for absolutely no reason while some of its competitors went up on STRL's earnings numbers. That's the "hunch" aspect. Technicals wise (which is what I rely on quite a bit): it's extended below the 21 EMA and found support at 200SMA 3 days in a row, so it provides a good low risk entry (stop right below 200 SMA) Fundamentals wise: the company is growing at triple digits revenue and EPS YoY, gimme a friggin break!
What kind of trader are you? Curious what everyone in here considers their trading style and how you find your plays. I'm mostly a momentum/scalp trader. I look for stocks already moving with volume, trade mostly off the 1-minute chart, and use EMA/VWAP/RSI to help with entries and figuring out when a setup has failed. I'm usually looking for quick moves rather than holding and hoping. I also use Reddit quite a bit, but more like another scanner than a buy signal. I watch what tickers people are talking about, especially ones suddenly getting attention, then pull up the chart myself. If the volume, price action and setup aren't there, I don't care how excited Reddit is about it. Reddit has actually helped me catch stocks that my normal scanners didn't pick up. I'm still learning and trying to get better at waiting for the setup instead of chasing something just because it's moving. What about everyone else? Momentum? Scalping? Swing trading? Options? Dip buying? News/catalyst plays? How do you find your trades, and what's the one rule you try hardest not to break?
Yeah, so, I think you’ve actually identified the problem pretty well. You’re bouncing between entering too early and waiting so long for confirmation that the risk/reward is gone. So for myself, the entry comes from the underlying, not the option itself (I trade 0DTE credit spreads btw). I’m usually looking for something like — selling stalls at a meaningful level, then structure shifts, then reclaim/break, then retest holds. What I'd rather try to do is enter on that retest than wait for a second green candle or an EMA signal, because by then you can already be chasing. And with 0DTE, being a candle or two early can be especially painful. Gamma amplifies both good and bad timing. So going 1–2 DTE can make the position less twitchy, but it won’t fix an entry problem by itself if that makes sense
SPY absolutely refuses to break out of the 50 day EMA. May be headed lower in the short term.
Still no movement for SPY..... • Price below 15-min OR low • Price below VWAP • EMA9 below EMA20 • RSI supports bearish continuation • Weak RVOL: 0.71x • Price is close to EMA9 — better entry area ⚑ Recent Signal Memory: Prior signal: PUT 0.1 min ago at 764.39 (conf 75/110) Price has not followed prior signal cleanly — wait for confirmation.
Do not buy puts on TSLA. It can run to 55EMA. Then consider it. Otherwise, don't fight it.
do you mean 20EMA or 22EMA for some strangely specific reason?
It's almost certain that we retest 22EMA at 759 on SPY. Coincides with June high.
It literally just closed below its 21D EMA lol
SPY 55 EMA at 759. Highly likely that we retrace towards it.
My friend uses them on TradingView. They’re essentially EMA pairs shaded into clouds, mainly used as visual trend and dynamic support/resistance zones. Ripster uses combinations like 5/12 and 34/50, with 1H/Daily charts suggested for swings. If I'm being honest, I hate them haha. I find them way too visually busy. Whenever I see my buddy’s chart, the clouds and colors cover so much that I feel like I’m fighting the indicator just to read price action. I’d rather keep the chart clean, but I can see the appeal if you like visual trend confirmation
let’s face it it’s probably lower tomorrow with this brutal rejection off the daily EMA9
At $2.115, the trend is gorgeous: price has been stair-stepping higher since ~9:30 and it's still above the EMA. But two things stop me: RSI = 74.05 that's outside my 50–65 entry window and already over 70. Volume is cooling. Current candle is only about 2.48K versus the displayed volume average around 52K. The big volume arrived earlier in the move.
I’d watch it, but I wouldn’t enter it here. Premarket is around $1.20 and it’s above VWAP/EMA with RSI around 53, which I like, but the volume is way too thin for me right now. I’m a momentum trader, so I’d want to see volume come in and the setup actually start moving before I touched it. If the volume shows up, I’d take another look. JMO
Yep likely! It will find support at 10d or 21d EMA before next leg up. Right now it's extended way too much from those EMAs
SPY MACD in goosing formation on the 9 EMA.
It definitely got my attention 😂 but I’m making it prove the dip is over first. I want the EMA9 hold/reclaim, RSI back above 50 and volume coming back in. I already donated to TRUG once this morning.
I looked at FAMI this weekend. Too risky for me right now too. Nasdaq minimum-bid deficiency, recently had an offering, and Friday's chart wasn't giving me a momentum setup — below EMA9 and VWAP, RSI around 46. If it gets a real catalyst and sets up Monday I'll look again, but I'm not buying it just because it's getting talked about.
> Keel. Tried to tell you days ago. You were right to flag KEEL. I finally dug into it tonight and I like what I’m seeing. Friday closed $3.51 above EMA9 and VWAP, RSI 56.7, and closing volume was about 2.4x its VMA. CEO buying 58,888 shares around $3.33 definitely got my attention too. Added it to my Monday watchlist. Still waiting for my momentum setup before I touch it, but good call — you tried to tell me.
might need a few day but check out $NFLX RSI 14 EMA 21
I thought AMZN was gonna go for the 50EMA, or half way down the cup on the yearly, but, after the anthropic numbers came out, I think we finna start rocketing asap.
If CAPR starts reclaiming VWAP with EMA9 support, RSI 50–65 and fresh volume coming in, then I'm interested. SRXH scares the hell out of me, but if it sets up right I might be down. Full disclosure I trade momentum.
Yeah buy lotto tickets when it’s rejecting a lower time frame EMA
I’m the Bloomberg Guy. You should always. Buy calls on bullish signals, definitely buy calls when it slaps an EMA at the top
me too brother, thats exactly how I trade, small movements and i only hold negative positions if EMA are holding, otherwise i just tank the loss and move on, no more liquidations for me
Just got it last week! Is the paid version worth it? So you do your technical analysis on trading view then put in orders on your brokerage? Also, what are the main indicators you look at? I’ve been reading about SMA, EMA, volume, and RSI as the top ones Also, if it is institutional selling, wouldn’t it be better for them to dump all shares at once, crash the price, then buy it back if they wanted to at that time? That way they get the actual sell price they want (instead of slowly bleeding Google) + opportunity to re enter
How would I know what VWAP line or EMA9 line is or there purpose, to set up the dashboard and scanner in the first place geared for penny quick trades, the bots trading to make dead stocks appear on scanner to trick you into buying or anything else I spoke about if I didn’t confine minutes of research? Who cares if I have a lofty goal what does that affect you? Great you made your opinion known all over my post that I have unrealistic goals. Do you have any useful actual advice now for changes I can make to my scanner or dashboard to help catch the runs as they break instead of after or are you just here to critique someone that’s leveraging his own money he’s willing to lose to learn a strategy and system?
Sorry for the long one here but I wish someone told me this shit years ago. I use WeBull. My personal suggestion would be move away from RH, they are decent broker for longer term moves and those who want a plethora of asset classes to trade, but for momentum traders it’s lacking tools that are essential. I don’t use ladders; I use volume, T&S, Lvl 2. Some indicators I use are VWAP, 9/20 EMA, MACD. These help me see potential support at VWAP or EMAs, and MACD helps show that we’re on the backside of the move where pullbacks won’t work as cleanly. 1.) WeBull allows customizable hot keys so I can place orders above the ask to ensure I get filled on these fast paced moves. I want to be able to place trades above to current ask price, that way if my order gets to the exchange and it’s already moved up I can still get in the position. Also helps being able to bail out if it doesn’t work in my favor. I prefer to sell at the ask so I don’t hurt the actual momentum and my own position, but if it’s not working I don’t wanna sit around and find out. 2.) WeBull has sub 1 minute charts for those really fast movers. If I’m using sub 1 minute charts I don’t expect to be in the trade long. The chart I’m looking at for entry influences how long I plan to hold. A pullback in the 5min chart needs more time to play out, a 1 minute pullback needs less time to play out, sub one minute charts usually offer instant resolve (aka I’m either almost instantly wrong and I bail or it works in my favor and I can look at the 1 min chart for signs to exit the position, such as a new candle closing red or a topping tail forming) Here’s a nuance people don’t often talk about; all charts can lag when stocks are really moving. WeBull and many other brokers will have executed orders come in moments after a candle closes so if you refresh it can change what the chart looks like (very minuscule differences, but differences nonetheless). I learned this when reviewing trades; I saw a pullback live and when I went back to the chart later the pullback looks different. The best way to combat this is watching the tape (T&S). The chart just draws a picture of what the T&S shows in real time. It also prompted me to start screen recording my sessions so I can see EXACTLY the same thing I saw live that influenced my decisions to get in or out. Clarification for trading pullbacks; Image from the YXT example earlier https://preview.redd.it/nfziqdyd46jh1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c1c8e5557a8d3aaabf42b215ad027209fc7ef1c ***Entry*** at new high over ***previous*** ***candle***, stop out if it goes back to support, targeting previous high starting to take profits, maybe holding some for a move higher. It literally bounced off VWAP here so that would be a decent entry for a **starter** position (not full size in case VWAP breaks) This usually happens in a somewhat uniform manner across momentum stocks in play. If shit is chopping sideways it’s not in play for a pullback trade. Pullbacks are used when something is squeezing higher. Don’t get beat up trying to trade pullbacks on TSLA chopping on a random Tuesday with no news. It’s the same reason VWAP and EMA bounces work on in play stocks; lots of traders respect them and trade them in a similar manner. If you’re trading some dumb Fibonacci stuff not many real traders use or respect you’ll find outcomes are random without edge. Pullbacks work because other traders are also looking for support to bottom out and a continuation for the next leg higher. Essentially, your job is to do what others are doing. Trade with the trend. ***Don’t catch falling knives, and don’t try to grab onto a rope attached to a rocket ship or your arms could get torn off.*** I’ve had more than a few trades in my time where I literally bought $0.01 from the high because I thought I was jumping on the rocket when I was really exiting liquidity for smarter traders. Not financial advice, just some free sauce I had to learn the hard way.
I mean shorter term. There is also position trading, which I do on my more "fundamentals stocks". Anyways, I track the 21 EMA and even IONQ seems to respect it pretty nicely during medium term trends
Maybe. But as a swing trader, I track 21 EMA and good stocks in an uptrend usually bounce at the 21/10 EMAs so they provide a low risk entry.
I like the chart. Wish I saw it 4 days earlier when it was close to its 21 EMA so I could buy and put a stop right below 21 EMA. Now it's extended about 10% above the EMA. I will wait for it to come back to its 21 EMA (they always do)
That is good. This builds upon yours. GOAL Build a repeatable system for asymmetric stock/options trades with defined downside and outsized upside, usually held 2–10 trading days. Accept concentrated bets, binary catalysts, options squeezes, bearish trades, premium selling, and occasional full losses — but only when sized so a total loss doesn't threaten next month's trading capital. POSITION SIZING (numeric — this governs everything below) Max risk per trade: no single position risks more than 2% of account equity at the pre-defined invalidation point. This is dollars-at-risk, not dollars-deployed — a defined-risk spread's max loss counts; a naked short's assignment/gap risk counts at realistic worst case, not premium collected. Size tiers map to a number, not a vibe: A+ → up to 2% risk A → up to 1.25% risk B → up to 0.75% risk C → do not trade (per original rule) Max total risk deployed at once: 8–10% of account equity across all open positions combined, even if every individual trade is A+. This is the difference between one bad trade and one bad week. Daily/weekly loss circuit breaker: at −4% account equity in a day or −8% in a week, stop opening new positions until the next review cycle (see Review Trigger below). This is a pause, not a ban — it forces the adversarial check to run on your own state, not just the trade. CORRELATION / CONCENTRATION CAP No more than 3 open positions expressing the same underlying driver (sector, single commodity, single narrative — e.g. "AI hardware," "bitcoin proxy," "meme squeeze"). Two tickers can be one bet; count the bet, not the ticker count. No more than 25% of deployed risk in one correlation bucket at a time. Before entry, state explicitly: "What does this position have in common with what I already hold?" If the answer is "the same reason it might go up," it's concentration, not diversification, even across different symbols. CORE PHILOSOPHY (unchanged, kept) The objective is not a perfect setup — take intelligent risk where potential reward materially exceeds realistic downside. Confirmation has an opportunity cost; do not require every breakout, VWAP reclaim, retest, MA signal, or momentum confirmation. Ask: what do we give up by waiting, and how much asymmetry do we lose? If entering earlier with smaller size offers better risk/reward than waiting for textbook confirmation, favor the earlier entry with better expected value. Do not confuse higher probability with better expected value. ADVERSARIAL RISK CHECK (unchanged — this is the strongest part of the original) For every serious candidate, try to disprove the trade first. Classify the biggest reason not to take it: FATAL — breaks the thesis; pass. MANAGEABLE — real risk, controllable through sizing, structure, entry, expiration, hedge, or invalidation. NORMAL UNCERTAINTY — uncertainty already compensated for by upside; do not demand certainty. Cost of waiting counts as a risk category too. Do not recommend a trade because premium, leverage, IV, or potential return looks exciting. Explain why the payoff exists — who is on the other side of this trade, and why. ANALYZE THE WHOLE OPPORTUNITY Company: growth, contraction, dilution, balance sheet, management, distress. Mispricing: is price wrong, and why — overreaction, misunderstood guidance, temporary bad news, improving fundamentals, valuation disconnect, underestimated catalyst, or volatility mispricing. Catalyst: what could force repricing — earnings, guidance, analysts, products, contracts, regulation, M&A, restructuring, debt resolution, squeeze dynamics, sector momentum, unusual options activity, news. Potential: realistic and stretch upside, probability-weighted outcomes, whether options improve or dilute convexity. Ask, quantitatively: if right, how much can we make (in R-multiples of risk, not just dollars)? If wrong, how much do we lose (must equal the sizing number above, not an estimate made after the fact)? What would have to be true for the market to be right and me wrong? TECHNICALS = ENTRY TOOLS, NOT VETO MACHINES (unchanged) Support/resistance, VWAP, EMA20, SMA50/200, RSI, volume, gaps, and trend structure are for entry, sizing, and risk/reward — not automatic overrides of a compelling thesis. Do not say "wait for VWAP reclaim" as a substitute for stating what evidence would actually invalidate the thesis. ENTRY MODES (unchanged, kept) ANTICIPATORY — downside definable, thesis compelling, near support, upside or waiting materially reduces asymmetry. Start smaller (cap at B-tier size regardless of conviction — anticipatory entries are structurally less confirmed). CONFIRMED — confirmation materially improves probability without materially consuming upside. CHASE — avoid after large moves unless new information raises fair value or the thesis materially re-rates. Size down one full tier from what conviction alone would suggest. OPTIONS — DEFINED RULES, NOT JUST QUESTIONS Cash-secured puts are available, not the default. Use them only when premium is attractive relative to collateral and you would want the underlying at the effective entry price (strike minus premium). Minimum quantitative bar to sell a CSP: state the annualized return on collateral at the bid, not the ask. If it doesn't clear a number you set in advance (e.g. 15% annualized), the premium isn't attractive — it's noise. Do not sell premium solely because IV is high. High IV without a defined reason (event, dislocation, squeeze) is often high IV for a reason you haven't found yet. No naked/unbounded short options risk. Every short option position has either a long option hedge, a defined max loss, or is explicitly a cash-secured put where assignment is an acceptable outcome, not a tail risk. Earnings/event binaries require explicit, separate approval — not silent inclusion because the setup otherwise looks clean. State the event and the expected move before entry, every time. SQUEEZES / BEARISH TRADES (unchanged) Evaluate short interest, float, days-to-cover, positioning, sentiment, and liquidity. A mediocre company can still be a good squeeze trade — that's a different thesis than a quality thesis, and should be labeled as such so it isn't held past the squeeze on hope. NEWS + SENTIMENT (unchanged) Always check current news for serious candidates. Determine what changed, whether priced in, analyst/institutional reaction, and relevant Reddit/social sentiment — treat crowd sentiment as a data point on positioning, not as confirmation of thesis quality. HOLDING / SELLING — WITH A DEFINED EXIT, NOT JUST A QUESTION Do not sell solely because a position turns red. Ask: did the thesis break, or did price simply move against us? But this question needs a pre-committed answer, set at entry: Invalidation level, stated in price or in fact-pattern terms, before entry. "I'll know it's wrong if X happens" — not decided after it happens. Do not refuse an early entry; only refuse an early exit on the first pullback if the invalidation level hasn't been hit. Do not average down blindly. Only add when thesis remains intact, mispricing improves, invalidation is clear, and total risk is still within the position's sizing cap above — averaging down that busts the 2% cap is a new trade decision, not a continuation of the old one. DO NOT LET ME OVERRIDE THE ANALYSIS (unchanged, kept as-is — this is good) Do not reverse a conclusion because I push back. Change it only if evidence changed. If I am wrong, tell me. Never place or submit a trade without my explicit approval. Added consequence: if a trade is placed without explicit approval, or a hard rule above is broken (sizing cap, correlation cap, no-naked-options, earnings-approval), log it and treat the next candidate's review as mandatory C-tier regardless of quality, until a review happens. A broken rule pauses the system, not just that trade. SCANNING (unchanged) Scan broadly for catalysts, post-earnings setups, temporary selloffs, mispricing, momentum/reversals, squeezes, unusual options activity, speculative small caps, and bearish setups. REQUIRED OUTPUT, FOR EVERY SERIOUS CANDIDATE Company quality · Why now · Mispricing · Catalyst · Potential (realistic + stretch, in R-multiples) · Downside (in dollars and % of account) · Technicals · Entry type (anticipatory/confirmed/chase) · Cost of waiting · Instrument · Options quality when relevant (IV, delta, spread/liquidity, OI, breakeven) · Size tier and dollar risk (explicit number) · Correlation bucket and current bucket exposure · Portfolio impact · Biggest reason NOT to trade · Risk classification (FATAL/MANAGEABLE/NORMAL UNCERTAINTY) · Targets · Time horizon · Alerts (exact prices) · Existing positions: BUY MORE/HOLD/REDUCE/SELL/EXIT · New trades: ENTER NOW/STARTER POSITION/ENTER ON PULLBACK/ENTER ON BREAK/WATCH/PASS. Be decisive. NO-TRADE RULE (unchanged) Say NO TRADE when there is no edge, risk cannot be defined, upside is insufficient, positions are badly priced, liquidity/assignment risk is poor, the move is excessively extended, correlation is excessive, or the thesis is mostly hope. Do not say NO TRADE simply because a setup is imperfect. REVIEW TRIGGER (new) Re-review this entire framework — not just the trade in front of you — whenever any of the following happens: the daily/weekly circuit breaker fires, a hard rule is broken, or account equity crosses a new $X,000 milestone. The review asks one question: did the rules fail, or did I fail to follow them? Fix the rule only in the first case. FINAL PRINCIPLE (unchanged) Optimize for: expected value × asymmetry × confirmation, not certainty × confirmation. At the current price, are we being paid enough for the risk? If yes, take intelligent risk. If uncertainty is the problem, size smaller. If waiting destroys the asymmetry, do not wait simply to feel safer.
This is the instructions I currently use: GOAL Build a repeatable system for asymmetric stock/options trades with defined downside and outsized upside, usually over 2–10 trading days. I accept volatility, concentrated bets, binary catalysts, options, squeezes, bearish trades, premium selling, and occasional full losses when sized properly. Avoid lottery tickets, blind averaging down, hype-only trades, chasing, poor liquidity, and unclear invalidation. Use intraday charts mainly for entry quality. Always use @Robinhood agent when relevant. Review positions, buying power, orders, total risk, and correlated exposure. CORE PHILOSOPHY The objective is not a perfect setup. Take intelligent risk when potential reward materially exceeds realistic downside. Confirmation has an opportunity cost. Do not require every breakout, VWAP reclaim, retest, MA signal, or momentum confirmation. Ask: What do we gain by waiting, and how much asymmetry do we lose? If entering earlier with smaller size offers better risk/reward than waiting for textbook confirmation, favor the earlier entry. Do not confuse higher probability with better expected value. ADVERSARIAL RISK CHECK For every serious candidate, try to disprove the trade. Always state: BIGGEST REASON NOT TO TAKE THIS TRADE: Classify it: FATAL — breaks the thesis; PASS. MANAGEABLE — real risk controllable through sizing, structure, entry, expiration, hedge, or invalidation. NORMAL UNCERTAINTY — uncertainty already compensated for by upside; do not demand certainty. Compare risk severity with expected upside and the cost of waiting. Do not recommend a trade because premium, leverage, IV, or potential return looks exciting. Explain why that payoff exists. ANALYZE THE WHOLE OPPORTUNITY COMPANY Classify as good, mediocre, distressed, turnaround, or trading vehicle. Consider growth, balance sheet, dilution, management, and distress. MISPRICING Ask whether price is wrong. Look for overreactions, misunderstood guidance, temporary bad news, improving fundamentals, valuation disconnects, underestimated catalysts, turnaround potential, or volatility mispricing. CATALYST Identify what could force repricing: earnings, guidance, analysts, products, contracts, regulation, M&A, restructuring, debt resolution, squeeze dynamics, sector momentum, unusual options activity, or news. POTENTIAL Estimate realistic/stretch upside, downside, holding period, probability-weighted outcomes, and whether options improve convexity. Ask: If right, how much can we make? If wrong, how much do we lose? What would have to happen for the market to be right? TECHNICALS = ENTRY TOOLS, NOT VETO MACHINES Use support/resistance, VWAP, EMA20, SMA50/200, RSI, volume, gaps, and trend structure for entry, invalidation, adds, exits, and risk/reward. Technicals should not automatically override a compelling thesis. Do not automatically say “wait for VWAP/breakout/confirmation/retest.” Compare early entry with confirmed entry. If uncertainty is the problem, reduce size rather than rejecting the trade. ENTRY MODES ANTICIPATORY — Downside definable, thesis compelling, near support, upside large, or waiting materially reduces asymmetry. Start smaller. CONFIRMED — Confirmation materially improves probability without consuming too much upside. CHASE — Avoid after large moves unless new information raises fair value, momentum is the thesis, or substantial upside remains. POSITION SIZING A+ — Exceptional asymmetry + defined risk. Larger speculative sizing. A — Strong opportunity. Normal speculative sizing. B — High potential, meaningful uncertainty. Reduced size. C — Poor asymmetry, unclear thesis, hype, or undefined risk. PASS. Use size to manage uncertainty. Do not reject B setups solely because they are uncertain if potential is exceptional. PORTFOLIO RISK Check buying power, capital/premium at risk, correlation, concentration, overlapping catalysts, and whether one market move could damage several positions. OPTIONS Options are encouraged when they improve asymmetry. Evaluate strike, expiration, delta, IV, expected move, liquidity/spread, volume/OI, theta, breakeven, catalyst timing, and stock target. Give the thesis enough time. If options are overpriced, use shares. Do not buy an option merely because it is cheap. Ask: What move does the underlying need, by when, and what happens if direction is right but timing or IV is wrong? CASH-SECURED PUTS / PREMIUM SELLING Cash-secured puts are available, not the default. Use them only when premium is attractive relative to collateral AND I would want the underlying at the effective entry price. Check earnings/events, liquidity/spread, volume/OI, IV/event risk, delta, % OTM, breakeven, assignment cost, return on collateral, correlation, and account fit. Ask: Would I actually want to own this company at the breakeven price? If not, reject the put regardless of premium. Do not sell premium solely because IV is high. No naked/unbounded short-option risk. Consider a small defined-cost hedge on unusually risky positions only if it meaningfully improves the payoff without destroying asymmetry. SQUEEZES / BEARISH TRADES For squeezes evaluate short interest, float, days to cover, volume, catalyst, positioning, sentiment, and liquidity. A mediocre company can still be a good trade. NEWS + SENTIMENT Always check current news for serious candidates. Determine what changed, whether priced in, analyst/institutional reaction, and relevant Reddit/social sentiment. HOLDING / SELLING Do not sell solely because a position turns red. Ask: Did the thesis break, or did price simply move against us? Do not refuse an early entry, buy only after confirmation, then sell on the first pullback. AVERAGING DOWN Do not blindly average down. Add only when thesis remains intact, mispricing improves, invalidation is clear, and total risk is acceptable. DO NOT LET ME OVERRIDE THE ANALYSIS Do not reverse a conclusion because I push back. Change it only if evidence changes. If I am wrong, tell me. If analysis was too conservative, acknowledge it and adjust. Never place or submit a trade without my explicit approval. SCANNING Scan broadly for catalysts, post-earnings setups, temporary selloffs, mispricing, momentum/reversals, squeezes, unusual options activity, volatility mispricing, cash-secured puts, sector rotations, speculative small caps, and bearish setups. REQUIRED OUTPUT For serious candidates provide: Company quality Why now Mispricing Catalyst Potential: realistic + stretch upside Downside Technicals Entry type: anticipatory / confirmed / chase Cost of waiting Instrument Options quality when relevant: IV, delta, spread/liquidity, OI, breakeven Sizing Portfolio impact Invalidation Biggest reason NOT to trade Risk classification: FATAL / MANAGEABLE / NORMAL UNCERTAINTY Targets Time horizon Alerts: exact prices Existing positions: BUY MORE / HOLD / REDUCE / SELL / EXIT New trades: ENTER NOW / STARTER POSITION / ENTER ON PULLBACK / ENTER ON BREAK / WATCH / PASS Be decisive. NO TRADE RULE Say NO TRADE — when there is no edge, risk cannot be defined, upside is insufficient, options are badly priced, liquidity/assignment risk is poor, the move is excessively extended, correlation is excessive, or the thesis is mostly hype. Do not say NO TRADE simply because a setup is imperfect. FINAL PRINCIPLE Optimize for: EXPECTED VALUE × ASYMMETRY × OPPORTUNITY not: CERTAINTY × CONFIRMATION At the current price, are we being paid enough for the risk? If yes, take intelligent risk. If uncertainty is the problem, size smaller. If the thesis is the problem, do not trade. If waiting destroys the asymmetry, do not wait simply to feel safer.
here I was waiting to buy qqq calls at the EMA21 and dude wicked it. bloody hell
MSOS is right up against the 50 day EMA and the upper Bollinger band... should drop tomorrow based on the technicals
I'm watching 👁️ it's coiled up below its 21 EMA with tight range price action so it may actually shoot up
Either trade SPX or don’t trade lmao. Range bound chop is fucking easy to trade with EMA’s
Buying a LEAP isn’t some magic win/win like some online gurus might say. It is still just a trade. A trader can express an idea in many ways. So what was your thesis? Let’s look at the charts. I assume you bought is on Tuesday, August 4th. At that point, GOOGL just ran up almost 20% off the lows, with huge bull bars on Friday and Monday prior, potentially signaling buyer exhaustion. It was also entering the 374 - 384 price range, where it got sold 4 times over the last few months. Furthermore, on the weekly, GOOGL had a 70%+ run from the tariff lows, with 2 bull legs complete after the gap up on the antitrust news. A third leg is possible, but it’s less likely, especially for an established company like that. XLC - the sector ETF that GOOGL is in - has been in the range for almost a year, with key moving averages sloping down and acting as rejections. So the stock has just bounced off the lows, still has overhead supply. Buying it on that Tuesday was a low probability idea. Just like any trade, LEAPS purchase should be sound from the technical perspective. Maybe a stock is breaking out after a multi-month base, or a trader is expecting an oversold bounce from a prior high volume node. Sure, nobody could expect the news the next day, but you were buying at the top of the range, where rejections are expected. What was your stop loss? Any trade should have a spot on the chart where you can say, ok I’m wrong. So, trading nearly 2 years away, your chart is probably monthly then? I’d say, as long as it holds the monthly EMA12 and the previous peak at around 320-330, your trade is still valid and you don’t need to cut it. As far as the actual % unrealized loss, yeah it does seem high compared to being down about 6% had you purchased shares. In summary - next time, look at monthly, weekly, daily charts and ask if the trade thesis is valid. Have a specific spot where you know you’re wrong and will take a loss without switching into the hope mode. And with your actual trade, keep an eye on monthly EMA12, currently at around 321, for holds. Next level below is around 293, but that would put your position quite under water. Good luck!
many do, when it is relevant. However, marking lines like where resistance and support are found aren't necessarily subjective. Nor is VWAP. EMA's are also just flow of price action. Most people react to those lines, not to lines drawn for candlestick patterns, but those too are widely adopted. So yeah, lines matter because you are looking for others who will adopt your position.
So any earning plays best at ATH or at EMA200 looks like to me
I use the Stock Trader’s Almanac to follow trend lines. I make a mint on the market being more predictable than people give it credit. Over time, we weed out luck. I use a short squeeze indicator, Fibonacci extensions, EMA’s for day and swing trading. Occasionally RSI and Bollinger Bands.
SPDR Twenty day EMA DOWN TOMORROW
Purchased today after seeing the EMA20 breakout
I think you should look to taking small profit and small gains. Buy at strong supports like 200 day SMA or EMA or 21 day EMA or weekly charts. You need to buy the strongest fundamentals companies too, maybe buy leveraged etfs and take a break from options because options are lowkey very expensive and very hard to time, at least buying a 2x leveraged etf will feel like a multiple month option or even leap. Just dont buy value trap companies with little growth that have been sold off. Like nflx, now, msft , meta etc. Although msft cloud revenue finally encouraging
Have you looked into ANNX? They have two drugs in development tanruprubart for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and vonaprument for Geographic Atrophy (GA). The GBS drug has an EMA application filed in January, and they plan to file a BLA after incorporating initial data from a FORWARD study to support generalizability in U.S. and European patients since phase II and III were run outside US. The GA drug has Phase III results expected later this year. Phase II showed strong vision preservation but didn’t significantly slow lesion growth so it technically missed on its primary endpoint. Because of this there is some uncertainty but from some of the investor conferences they said they setup the Phase III trial around preserving vision rather than lesion growth. If both drugs succeed I expect at least a 5x from current price. They have a year’s worth of funding and just got a deal for 200m depending on milestones achieved. Let me know what you think.
Not the 5m EMA 78 acting as support nooooooooo my calls are safe.
Bro, dump already. “bUt i wAnNa bOunCe oFf 9EMA.” I swear to god if you rocket 2% again today without a pullback I’m gonna flip a table.
I just went about 80% cash today at close. Waiting for QQQ to gracefully come back to its 21 day EMA and find support there, and I will buy back in.
The reason exits and sizing dominate on 0dte specifically, more than on any other duration, is gamma. On expiration day gamma near the money is huge, so your delta flips fast and the P and L turns path dependent in a way that swamps your directional read. That is the real content behind "being right on direction is not enough": an ORB or VWAP entry is a delta bet, but a long premium 0dte trade is really a long gamma bet, so your edge is the day's realized move beating the implied move priced into the open straddle, not the direction itself. It also answers the 200ma question someone raised. On a one day option the 50 and 200 EMA are mostly noise, they describe a multi week trend the contract will never live to see. What actually pays or hurts you is how far price travels today versus the straddle price at the open. If you logged trades around realized versus implied daily move instead of trend context, the sizing and exit rules you already found would have a cleaner reason for existing, and you would size up on the days the market is underpricing the range rather than the days a trend line looks pretty.
Here is what I'm thinking/doing: I was severely long the market last 4 days. So much that my port went up 60% in the last 4 days. However I got out of most of my long positions today and sitting in cash. I'm looking for the market to either gracefully come back to 21 day ema (it always does) or some stocks to break out of their own 21 EMA or 50 sma. I just find the risk right now to be not worth it. The market went up in a straight line the past 4 days
9 EMA, VWAP with 1 standard deviation.