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Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF
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How today's highly valued AI stocks can turn into the next IBM like turn around
SK Hynix Rises Over 15% as Citi Says Chinese Memory Makers Won’t Impact Market in Short Term, Memory Tightness to Last Until at Least 2027
China’s CXMT Surges 466% in Asia’s Largest IPO of 2026
The ASML and Chip Stocks Sell-off is an Overreaction
ASML Q1 Results: Net Sales hit €8.8B, Net Profit at €2.8B, FY26 Outlook raised. With AI driving relentless lithography demand, is ASML the ultimate AI bottleneck?
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The numbers aren't wrong but they are a severe outlier, Micron's own history shows that. Commodity memory has never sustained anything over 60% for long because the capex cycle always kicks in. Someone builds more fabs, supply catches up, margins compress back to earth. The only precedent I can think of that even approaches this is ASML during the EUV monopoly window, and even they couldn't hold 85% indefinitely because their customer base is too concentrated. Memory is way more cyclical than lithography tools though, so I'd be shocked if this lasts past mid-2027
Quick history lesson on GF- It was founded as the conglomeration of AMD’s Dresden Fab, some IBM fabs in upstate NY and Vermont, and Chartered Semiconductor in Singapore as AMD went fabless. This was accomplished via the relevant business units being purchased by Mubadala, the UAE’s investment arm. First few years AMD remained the majority of the revenue but it quickly became a struggle as AMD wanted to compete at low tech nodes with Nvidia and Intel, but GF couldn’t afford the insane R&D cost that would come with that race, so in 2017 they announced a pivot away from EUV technology to focus on “essential” chips. This means things like radio modems in smartphones, car sensors, power switches, etc. - all the stuff that is needed for that 2nm chip to actually do what it needs to do. This has been a heavily questioned move - many felt like giving up on EUV was essentially giving up on being a market competitor. But it’s proved to at the very least be a stabilizing move, allowing GF to spend the last few years slowly modernizing their internal business processes, something that has shown in the fairly steady margin growth from roughly 25 to 30% As you mentioned, they’ve begun investing heavily into new non-EUV tech; silicon photonics has been a boon to their revenue as the smartphone market has plateaued, and there are legitimate reasons to be excited about GF’s placement in the quantum computing space - their 22FDX platform shows some promise for control modules at cryogenic temperatures for example. Now, do I think that there’s reason to think gf is undervalued in the mid 40s? Absolutely. But I think the “right” price for the stock is probably in the mid 50s to low 60s for the next couple of quarters. If they can start showing some major demand and capacity ramps in the coming quarters then they could shoot up, but I doubt you’re gonna 5x your investment anytime soon. It’s still a very immature company (in the grand scheme of things) that’s gotta get through some growing pains and find the market they can really own.
They are not the same use case. intel is 1 of 3 leading edge companies in the world and the only American company that can do what they do. Intel has a massive already client processer business, Intel also has a massive IP portfolio and is intrical to national security, GFS is no that, they don’t have that type of moat nor importance to the global market or the US plans. An intel buy last year was a totally different thesis and not just well this company could be more important , intel was already important and its concerns were foundry investment which is huge for high-na EUV -‘d leading edge.
No, not likely as that’s not their stated goal. The marker they play, they focus on trailing edge nodes 180nm to be 20nm I believe they can do 12nm today … but these sizes are used for standard electronics and microprocessors. They gave up on leading edge and EUV in 2017 not having the capital to play in that domain.. so advanced CPUs, GPUs are not in their realm of capability and also the domain they do play in has plenty of other players. This is why Samsung, TSMC and Intel are so important they are the only leading edge foundries in the world.
As long as the EUV machines keep shipping!
There is another part of this discussion that makes the whole “Chinese auto industry vs American auto industry” framing much less clean than it sounds. Tesla itself is a good example. Tesla is American, but its battery supply chain has never been purely American. Panasonic was crucial to Tesla’s early scale, and Tesla later diversified its battery sourcing to companies including LG Energy Solution and CATL. So even the most successful American pure-EV manufacturer was built around a global, heavily Asian battery supply chain. Brazil makes this even more interesting because we are watching several versions of this industrial integration happen at the same time. BYD took over Ford’s former industrial complex in Camaçari and is progressively localizing production. GWM took over Mercedes-Benz’s former factory in Iracemápolis. Renault and Geely are expanding their industrial relationship in Brazil. GM itself is now assembling Chinese-developed Chevrolet EVs in Ceará. The Spark EUV and Captiva EV come from GM’s Chinese industrial ecosystem with SAIC and Wuling and are being assembled locally. Toyota and BYD have a 50/50 EV R&D joint venture. Nissan has had a major industrial relationship with Dongfeng in China for decades. At some point, asking whether a technology is simply “Chinese” or “Western” stops having an easy answer. And Brazil gives us another interesting experiment: range. If you look only at Brazilian homologation figures, some EVs can look surprisingly short-legged. Cars with batteries in the 50-60 kWh range can receive official Inmetro/PBEV range figures around 300 km. But the Brazilian number is deliberately conservative. Inmetro does not simply publish the raw laboratory result. Adjustment factors are applied to produce a more conservative real-world reference. The problem is that a lot of automotive discussion here then treats that number almost as the maximum distance the EV can realistically travel. Owner experience often looks very different. We now have EV owners driving these cars across Brazil, including mountainous areas and routes that climb from the coast onto the plateau. There are owners and independent tests substantially exceeding the official Inmetro range, and under favorable conditions some results get much closer to WLTP. Larger-battery EVs can exceed 400 km in real use even when their Brazilian homologated number looks much less impressive. Obviously that does not mean WLTP is guaranteed real-world range. Drive at 120 km/h, climb continuously, add headwind, temperature changes or heavy HVAC use and consumption changes dramatically. But this exposes an interesting asymmetry in how cars are discussed here. When a small 1.0-liter ICE car achieves an exceptionally good km/l result, automotive enthusiasts and media are perfectly happy to show what the car can achieve under favorable real-world conditions. With EVs, I often see the opposite. The conservative Inmetro figure gets repeated as the defining range of the vehicle, while owner consumption and independent road results receive much less attention. A much better way to discuss EV range is to show the homologation numbers and then show actual energy consumption. If an EV does 12, 15, 18 or 22 kWh/100 km, anyone can understand what a 40, 60 or 90 kWh battery means under different conditions. That's much more informative than saying “this is a 300 km car” because one homologation system printed 300 km on the label. And all of this comes back to the original Detroit question. Brazil is becoming a useful real-world laboratory because Chinese manufacturers are no longer simply shipping Chinese-built cars here. They are buying former Western factories, hiring Brazilian workers and progressively localizing production. At the same time, established American, European and Japanese manufacturers are increasingly using Chinese partners, platforms, batteries, engineering or complete vehicles. Europe is moving in a similar direction as Chinese manufacturers localize more production there. That gives us an opportunity to separate two things that are constantly mixed together in this discussion. If Chinese manufacturers lose most of their price advantage when they manufacture in Brazil, Europe or eventually the US with local workers, then Chinese wages, subsidies and domestic production conditions were clearly doing much of the work. But if a substantial advantage survives localization, then wages cannot be the entire explanation. Battery costs, vertical integration, EV-specific platforms, supplier organization, procurement, manufacturing scale, automation, development cycles and margins all have to enter the discussion. That's why I would actually find an American-built Chinese EV much more interesting than another imported Chinese EV. Require American production. American wages. American safety and environmental standards. Apply the same rules to everyone. Then compare the products. If an American-built BYD ends up costing roughly the same as an equivalent American-built GM or Ford, we learn something important about where the original Chinese cost advantage came from. But if it can still compete aggressively on price, equipment and efficiency while paying American production costs, then tariffs didn't answer the underlying competitiveness question. They only delayed the experiment.
One thing I think this thread is showing is that the question is becoming bigger than simply "Chinese cars are cheap because Chinese workers are cheap." Wages and subsidies matter. But Chinese manufacturers are increasingly moving production outside China, which gives us a chance to test that explanation in the real world. Brazil is a particularly interesting example. For decades, the market was dominated by established American, European, Japanese and Korean manufacturers with local factories, suppliers, dealerships and huge brand recognition. Chevrolet was enormously strong, and the Onix spent years as the country's best-selling car. Now the structure is changing. BYD took over Ford's former industrial complex in Camaçari and is progressively localizing production. GWM took over Mercedes-Benz's former factory in Iracemápolis. Renault and Geely are expanding their industrial partnership and investing together in Brazil. And it gets stranger than simply "Chinese companies versus legacy automakers." GM itself is assembling Chinese-developed Chevrolet EVs in Brazil. The Spark EUV and Captiva EV are being assembled in Ceará using products originating from GM's Chinese ecosystem with SAIC and Wuling. Toyota has a 50/50 EV R&D joint venture with BYD. Nissan has a long industrial relationship with Dongfeng in China. Renault is partnering with Geely. So the borders between "Chinese" and "traditional" manufacturers are becoming increasingly blurry. Europe may become an even better test. Chinese manufacturers are actively looking for existing European factories rather than simply exporting everything from China. BYD says that, longer term, it expects to need three vehicle assembly plants and a battery plant in Europe. That is why I don't think the wage argument settles this. If BYD builds cars with Brazilian or European workers and most of its price advantage disappears, then labor costs, subsidies and producing in China were obviously doing a huge amount of the work. But if a substantial advantage remains, we have to ask what else explains it: battery costs, vertical integration, platform design, automation, supplier organization, scale, development cycles, margins, or some combination of them. And this is where I come back to Detroit. The US doesn't have to allow unlimited Chinese imports to test this. Require local production. Require American wages. Require US safety and environmental standards. Apply trade safeguards. Then let the products compete. Protection can give an industry time to adjust. But the important question is what Detroit does with that time. Because Chinese manufacturers aren't standing still outside the US. They're localizing production, buying or reusing factories, forming partnerships with established manufacturers and becoming part of the same global supply chains that legacy automakers use. Brazil is already experiencing that transition. Europe increasingly is too. Renault and Geely, for example, just announced another €319 million investment in their Brazilian partnership. If an American-built Chinese EV eventually costs roughly the same as an American-built competitor, we'll have learned something important about the original Chinese cost advantage. But if it can still compete aggressively on price and equipment while paying American production costs, then keeping the imported version out didn't solve Detroit's underlying competitiveness problem. It just postponed the test.
TSMC only really holds up as long as it takes CXMT to fully ramp up. At that point most of the world's advanced semis are going to switch to China purely for cost reasons. So TSMC isn't going to have the same EUV lead they previously enjoyed. In fact Intel has a new fab up right now that can match it and they're looking for customers.
No US/Netherlands has export controls on EUV machines. Only the old DUV is allowed
It should be able to design and construct a cheaper version of ASML's EUV machines first, that's the real bottlebeck.
Nike going all in on selling through their website and ending direct sales on Amazon and Amazon owned Zappos really cost them. It wasn't just Amazon though. Nike intentionally cut ties with roughly 50% of its wholesale retail partners globally. The goal was to eliminate "undifferentiated" stores, cut out the middleman, and force shoppers to buy directly from Nike’s own website, apps, and flagship stores to increase profit margins. They thought they could do it as they were big enough. What the management did not realize was they were just selling shoes not EUV machines. It allowed breathing room for unknown smaller running shoes brands. People started to realize there are other companies making similar or better products. They know it was a massive blunder because they are now back in Amazon. But might be a little too late as there is already blood in the water. They will still be dominant but their best days might be behind them.
Even without EUV? You think AI algorithms get that much better that they can achieve the same levels with limited compute? Or do you think China cracks EUV on a scalable basis in the next 5ish years?
[https://hc2025.hotchips.org/assets/program/conference/day2/40\_Marvell\_Kuemerle\_final.pdf](https://hc2025.hotchips.org/assets/program/conference/day2/40_Marvell_Kuemerle_final.pdf) Marvell® dense SRAM in 2nm Marvell IP -> but they goto TSMC Intel Foundry + Intel DCG -> products with stack SRAM (i.e. Logic on too of SRAM) Intel Xeon 6+ clearwater forest -> this is launched and should be shipping to hyperscaler. Intel Xeon 7 diamond rapids -> product announced but shipping early-mid 2027 If SRAM actual silicon, that is the logic foundry players. If SRAM IP, then Marvell and Broadcom (maybe MediaTek) some players that benefits: ASML -> because you need EUV for SRAM at those advanced nodes. Foundry -> Intel and TSMC for fabrication and advanced packaging.
There's a nike exec reading this thread right now asking Claude "How do I pivot my company toward selling EUV machines in the next quarter?".
Nike going all in on selling through their website and ending direct sales on Amazon and Amazon owned Zappos really cost them. It wasn't just Amazon though. Nike intentionally cut ties with roughly 50% of its wholesale retail partners globally. The goal was to eliminate "undifferentiated" stores, cut out the middleman, and force shoppers to buy directly from Nike’s own website, apps, and flagship stores to increase profit margins.They thought they could do it as they were big enough. What the management did not realize was they were just selling shoes not EUV machines. It allowed breathing room for unknown smaller running shoes brands. People started to realize there are other companies making similar or better products. They know it was massive blunder because they are now back in Amazon.
That will be funny but it won’t be because of these GPUs It will be because of new hardware that makes AMD and Nvidia irrelevant EUV machines and fabs built in mainland China fabs in the US all making Taiwan reunification not a US problem stock market will hate it though
I’ve saved your comment to see if China will be able to manufacture EUV within the next 20 years. Of course, if China really does succeed, some people have already written the ending to the story: “China stole it.”
It’s all going to be moot anyway. We will be using photonic chips shrunk already 10,000x for training & inference for AI. One optical processing unit (OPU) from Neurophos (8 chips) is equal to a 3,000 lb server GPU rack while drawing 100x less power. Light doesn’t generate heat nor does it require the enormous amount of power that transistors do. We are the wall of what is possible with shrinking transistors on silicon. We are stacking them, AMD did chiplets when single chips no longer could keep up and NVDA is investing very heavily into $LITE, $GLW and $COHR bc they know if they surround their shitty power hungry GPUs with photonic components it’ll make it appear like they are making efficiency gains. The only moat is CUDA & Q.ANT (German startup) already has proven in real life AI datacenters that they can work beside GPUs and pull 30x less power while doing certain tasks like inference 50x faster. NVIDIA knows this but I would be investing in all things optical unless NVIDIA has a few tricks up their sleeve. Buy INTC, LITE, COHR and GLW to name a few NOT AAOI. The ETF EUV has a nice balance but I would wait for the 3rd week in September when the great ETF, hedge fund, index fund rebalancing occurs & all those chip stocks get kicked to lower concentrations. Especially considering the money in momentum funds currently like SPMO.
Very interesting. Yeah I mean if they can do it I'm in full support. High yield advanced node fab accessible to everyone is a good thing for the world. I'm very proud of my Chinese heritage and am not one to criticize China specifically or for the sake of any East vs West argument. It just seems so difficult for them, or anyone, to create high NA EUV alone. I've seen their progress in deposition which, though extremely impressive, is still lagging a fair bit to current technology. I also just don't know how they would be able to mass produce good tools for each step and then maintain high enough yields to be successful. You can see how terrible Intel and Samsung yields are even with full access to the most advanced tools.
I was in China for about a month in February. I completely understand how competent the talent in China is. But a lot of the chip industry is not tied to talent alone. I mentioned how the US or any country alone would not be able to catch up in this industry. Each EUV, deposition, etch tool alone is a feat to create. ASML sold about 50 tools total in 2025 which comprised the majority of their $37B revenue. Companies would not be paying hundreds of millions per tool (~$200m each) if they were able to create their own. Chip fab is literally the most complex and advance form of technology we humans have ever made and it took 10 or so of the largest countries multiple decades to get to the point we are at. It just is not possible for a single country to get to that point in a fraction of the time.
batery tech is not that simple but obviously EUV is magnitude harder than battery because EUV involves nano scale and super high precision and a host of very difficult engineering problems
Oh really? Using what EUV machines?
Yeah China has definitely caught up (if not advanced) in EVs/batteries, renewables, and LLMs. I'm definitely not disputing this. But I also mentioned this in my previous comment. EVs, batteries, renewables are far simpler technologies to copy and reverse engineer. Same with ai models where they can use a lot of the pre-existing training. I would argue that just one single component of chip fab alone (EUV lithography) is far far more complex than any of the listed technologies. There's a reaaon that Nvidia is the largest company in the world and every aspect of chip fab functions as essentially a monopoly. There's a reason that China has had access to DUV tools for decades now and were only able to replicate it this year. And DUV to EUV is like the same level of magnitude as creating an optical microscope to a transmission electron microscope. I am pretty confident that nobody, outside of ASML, will be able to create high NA EUV in the next 20 years, let alone every other component in dep, etch tools and chambers.
They are working on it China appears closer to EUV capability without having obtained ASML's production-ready machine. The US allegation that an ASML EUV machine reached China remains unverified, and ASML says Washington has provided it no supporting evidence. China has, however, reached a different milestone by building its own crude EUV prototype in Shenzhen, reportedly with former ASML engineers and parts sourced from older equipment.
As a Chinese American semi HW engineer, I've heard a ton of headline propaganda from my mom/uncles about how China's tool/chip manufacturing has caught up. How China is as capable as TSMC, ASML, etc. I give them a pass because they know literally nothing about the semiconductor industry and assume stuff like DUV vs EUV litho is basically the same thing. Definitely think China has innovated a ton in spaces like batteries and renewables especially. But these are fairly simple technologies compared to chip manufacturing. Unless they are able to continuously replicate and mass produce all the best litho, dep, etch, etc tools, I genuinely don't think they will ever fully catch up. I don't think the US alone would be able to either.
Won't happen unless they somehow pull of the miracle of mass producing their own EUV in the next years
I need you to go ahead and research how they are pursuing EUV. They have a machine it's the size of a fricken warehouse it's completely different technology and 30% as reliable. And they literally have 1. Just... Do the bare minimum research. Meanwhile our memory manufacturing facilities house 10-100 higher precision higher yield EUV with much greater capabilities. Cxmt is not even pursuing HBM. Do research dude. Easiest sector to gain some knowledge on.
You think CXMT can't get EUV machines in 2 years? You are not realistic.
Oh damn, so why is Mercedes so expensive then? There must be tons of counterfeit Mercs on the streets, significantly cheaper and only slightly worse than the real thing, if "just fucking steal it" was so easy. How many companies have stolen SpaceX's reusable rockets so far? How many companies are making ASML's EUV machines or Nvidia's chips? Or maybe "stealing" is sometimes exceptionally difficult to do, which is those companies' entire moat? You know, which was the entire point of the guy you're responding to.
What do you guys think, why can’t AMD just flood the market with cheap GPUs. Oh, because TSM is the bottleneck? Okay why can’t samsung and intel flood the market with cheap wafers? Oh because ASML is the bottleneck? Okay why can’t china flood ther market with cheap EUV machines? Oh because…
They can’t compete on HBM, doubt they have EUV within the next 5 years
Across its history, Moore’s Law has repeatedly hit apparent “walls” — heat, lithography limits, cost explosions, quantum effects — leading experts to announce its demise. But each time, the semiconductor industry found new ways to extend scaling: - 1970s–1980s: Early predictions of slowdown appeared when transistor shrinking hit manufacturing limits. Breakthroughs in photolithography and materials proved those predictions wrong. - Mid‑2000s: Dennard scaling broke down (power stopped scaling with transistor size). Many analysts said Moore’s Law was over. Instead, the industry pivoted to multicore CPUs and GPUs, extending effective performance scaling. - 2010s: As transistors approached atomic scales, commentators again declared Moore’s Law dead. Yet FinFETs, EUV lithography, and 3D stacking (e.g., AMD 3D V‑Cache, Intel Foveros) kept density rising. In each era, the “death” pronouncements were based on real physical or economic constraints — but underestimated the industry’s ability to innovate around them. From AI, but please feel free to provide counterfactual arguments if you can.
Depends on your risk tolerance of course. Personally, I also have thematic ETFs, but my tolerance and sanity only allows for an 80/20 split. My personal portfolio at the moment is: 80% XEQT; 20% Thematic ETFs - with the hope that one (or more) will reach exit velocity. The 20% is a wide range: AIQ, CIBR, WQTM, DRAM, DISK, LYTE, EUV, HUMN, NASA. But I try to keep it 20% understanding that the same swing one way can go to the other way if the market turns.
ASML was bleeding money for decades as they were trying to make EUV lithography possible. They were backed a lot of big tech players as they knew EUV was the best bet to continue following Moore's law (cited from "Chip Wars" book) to allow even smaller chips. Betting on tech advancing has been the play since forever. Also most chip fabs were bleeding money on production but just kept pumping money on it because "the vision". Say what you will about AI, but there is a vision for the future.
If you want them all, there are a few ETFs to check out. EUV and FOTO are like the DRAMs of optics. I loaded up on EUV calls
The US companies monetarely incentivate the best stundents to migrate to West Coast tech companies, that's a fact. In reality, China is slightly behind because chinese hardware (advanced chips) is inferior to what is produced in TSMC (Nvidia, AMD, Grok, etc.) and that's because advanced EUV litography is among the few core technologies that the west is still far ahead. The chinese cannot buy the most advanced chips (made with EUV) because the US forbade Nvidia to sell them, they cannot buy the machines necessary to make the chips because the US forbade the Netherlands (ASML) to sell them, therefore they make inferior chips with what technology they currently have (DUV) while they create their own EUV machines. The result is that chinese researchers had to invent more "eficient" models in order to achieve parity with US ones, whom have access to more raw computing power for both training and running. The fact they are anywhere close (sometimes even surpassing in some metrics) to these frontier models is quite a clear meassure of their proficieny in this field and that they have some serious talent pool.
Your quote was "if Europe had their own semi company"....and equipment manufacturer for the EUV process certainly qualifies
Export sanctions block China's CXMT from obtaining advanced lithography tools (EUV). They can flood the lower-margin, legacy commodity market (DDR4), but cannot compete in high-margin AI memory (HBM3e/DDR5) where Western suppliers make their profits.
SNDK has developed HBF, same idea more or less as HBM, custom base die, 3D, it doesn't require EUV so it will be easier for China to make but still it's hard to tell where NAND will land relative to DRAM.
It's not that much easier to manufacture than logic, probably the same difficulty, just different challenges. Also, all three DRAM vendors are switching to EUV for HBM4/HBM4E.
That is a wild geopolitical movie plot, but RAM shortages are an EUV lithography and packaging bottleneck, not a rare earth issue. Though I do agree your 2 cents took a hit from inflation
Chipmaking cannot be solved by money. Solving things like raising yields takes an enormous amount of time and collaboration with equipment makers. I'm sure China will *eventually* figure it out but it'll be a decadeslong effort. China originally had this plan in 2015 called Made in China 2025 that was supposed to have 70% of the chips China consumers domestically produced by 2025 but it miserably failed because they realized this shit is a million times harder than EVs or batteries especially when your access to the finest chipmaking equipment is blocked. The EUV machines that ASML developed? It's the most complex thing ever built by humans and took decades of research and collaboration. Even today it's not purely a Dutch produce because key components have to be produced in Germany and the US.
Without EUV they can do DDR4 and maybe low to medium performance DDR5 which takes some pressure from the consumer market. Smartphones, Computers etc.
Who knows for certain but there was a story a month ago about Lutnick telling ASML he thinks China have components of EUV
Can they do HBM without EUV?
Consumer commodities move on headline inventory cycles, but real structural pricing power lives in high-NA EUV optics and advanced packaging yields. If you're tracking supply chokepoints, look at the yield delta between thermal compression non-conductive film (TC-NCF) at 60% vs mass reflow molded underfill (MR-MUF) at 80% for high-bandwidth memory (HBM3e). When advanced packaging thermal dissipation chokepoints limit silicon throughput, gross margins shift upstream to the physical toolmakers holding proprietary optical numerical aperture patents. That's where physical supply lag actually compounds.
Yeah EUV tech is also also getting better. Producing higher yeilds at faster rates. When China eventually figures it out they will either be extremely inefficient or surpassed by X-ray lithography.
CXMT ranks fourth in global market share, in Q4 2025 already had 7.67% of the market. 31% of Micron's revenue. And that's just the tail end of the DRAM shortage. I wouldn't bet that the Chinese won't have EUV and DUV machines 90% as good as ASML for 10% the price in the next few years. They don't give much of a crap about patents, and have the best manufacturing logistics and infrastructure in the world.
Don’t over rely on analyst price targets. They know lil fish like us are watching that. Bad plan? No, but semiconductor needs an ETF. As someone who works in the industry you won’t pick the winners without lots of knowledge (did gen public know so much about lam Amat mu till this run up?). All it takes is one supply chain bottleneck (or a random company who would like to invade Taiwan) (or a Chinese EUV competitor) to sink your ship.
Limited Competition Threat from China: not translate to effective market supply in the short to medium term. "Also lagging five or more years behind in EUV and suffers from lower production yields" ... only 5 years? So 2021. Thats pretty good especially being the mass volume of orders is in the older tech not the newest tech that is mostly reserved for Enterprise/data-centers Short term as 1 year... ok Medium term? eh, smoking crack.
China is also working on EUV. They have produced the light source. It won't be long.
Just need MRVL to do a casual +75% before I can live my gambling days behind me. June and July have been a horrifying yet enlightening experience. I suck at investing, I won't get rich quick, but I still can ETF and chill. EUV to the moon ! (in 20 years)
DUV is also made by Nikon and if you walk in any fab youll see those. EUV is still the frontier especially for all of the logic fabs. When there’s a new tool, especially a risky one from China, there’s months and potentially years to qualify in the fab especially in advanced nodes. So they may win some of the business in China but I doubt they make a serious dent outside of them. You never see any Chinese tools outside of China
Bullish news cannons have been loaded. Talked about this yesterday. They have been literally spamming the bad news button for like 2 weeks straight China EUV, circular funding, bond vigilantes, memory collapse, Korean leverage, blah blah blah. Now get ready for all that to just go away completely and there will be good news spam for like a week. It’s kinda cringe
Here's the thing, when China comes out with a fully functional EUV machine in 5 years the media will say, oh EUV is already known technology, the west did all the hard work to pave the path and the parts and principles of how they work were all publically available knowledge (which is true). Then people who just watched a few veritasium videos and think they understand the semiconductor industry will realize it's overblown how difficult EUV is to achieve once the supply chains and institutional knowledge is built up. What China has proved with this domestic DUV mass production (if the news is actually real, still a chance it's fake news btw), is they have matured a domestic supply chain and strong institutions with a vast talent pipeline. No one who seriously works in the industry thinks china can't achieve EUV given the pressure put on them, that's why I'm not touching ASML stock with a 10 foot pole.
LYTE and LAZR haven't been approved, yet. Besides EUV, FOTO is currently the only photonics etf's.
Yes. Overreaction indeed. People and institutions can’t get it out of their head that DUV does not equal to EUV. Social media makes it out that China is leapfrogging ASML…
Alright what’s the most bullish news possible we could get. War over? China’s EUV machine actually being a big misunderstanding and they are making Erection Upkeep Vitamins, not fabs
I don’t see any logic behind this. I see Wall Street finance gurus talking on TV mumbo jumbo about AI but being unable to tell the difference between a CPU and a GPU. The technological innovations that led to the AI revolution are immensely complicated. For example it took ASML 20 years of hardcore quantum physics research to be able to manipulate matter at an the scale of a few atoms and produce the EUV lithography. China is not going to replace that in a few months. In the long run I believe it’s all going to be about how effectively these companies are going to integrate AI into their workflow. A professional illustrator needs vectors to work with and the future would possibly be a copilot analogue for dealing with these vectors. I myself work in scientific HPC and AI has changed the landscape in my field a lot.
Brother can we get out of this doom spam of bad news for semis, every 2 seconds it’s fucking something new: CHINESE EUV, SANCTIONS, ENERGY CONSTRAINTS, CAPEX ISSUES, CIRCULAR FINANCING, KOREAN LEVERAGE, FUCKING YEN STUFF, IRAN LAUNCHED DIRECTLY AT NVIDIA They are just spamming bearish words lol half of it doesn’t matter or is way overblown but gotta get those clicks and max fear. As soon as it’s deemed finish they’ll turn off the spam and we’ll see only good news. Just kinda tired of warped reality around MSM
My dude you have no idea. Like EUV is 1000x more complex than DUV
In 5 years everyone will be printing their own chips at home using cheap Chinese EUV machines designed by deepseek. At least that’s what the market seems to be predicting
YOU have no idea what you're talking about. They absolutely manufacture most of the parts domestically, no other country is close to being able to do this, not even ASML itself, DUV is a miracle in of itself, the hardest part of EUV is literally the light source and precision mirrors, both of which China could crack in the next few years, everything else is quite trivial to overcome, it's not like the technology and methodology is unknown, EUV is not something miraculously more difficult than DUV.
Anyone wanna start a company with me? It'll be free money, we just need to open up in China, buy some EUV technology 20 years behind the US, and announce we're scaling up production by 450%
Honestly, I don't see China ever catching up in EUV. Think about aircraft engines—they’ve thrown money at high-end turbofans for decades and still can't get the material science right. EUV lithography is way harder than a jet engine. It's literally the most complex machine on the planet. If they're still struggling with mechanical engines, tracking down EUV tech is basically out of the question.
I never said anything about a 2 year gap. We cleared immersion DUV 20 years ago and China is still 20 years behind us in EUV tech.
This immersion milestone makes them 20 years behind and they're still 20 years behind in EUV tech.
Why do you goofy goobers talk so confidently about things you obviously know little about? China does not build DUV machines “entirely on their own”, quick research shows they rely on specialized subcomponents precision motion controls, and high-grade materials imported from mostly from Japan… which are kind of, you know, critical when producing chips, especially the precision motion control part. DUV, while a cool technology, is vastly less marvelous an engineering feat than EUV lithography is and the science a lot less complicated (in relative terms, of course). ASML sold its first DUV machine 1998 with far less sophisticated technology than what China is working with today. Its DUV machines also still lag behind in scale and performance. I don’t think people like yourself understand how big a jump EUV is from DUV. It took ASML 12 years to jump from DUV to EUV, and that’s with decades of EUV tech know how from America’s national laboratory. To get to EUV, China not only has to do all of the research that took America & Co. decades, but also manage to achieve all of the engineering feats of an extremely complicated global web of specialized suppliers. EUV tech is not vehicle assembly. You can’t will your way into producing EUV tech.
You don’t know what you’re talking about, you’re so out of your depth and it’s annoying how many of you retards exist on this website. China did not achieve a “EUV prototype years ago”, they created a machine just last year that produced EUV light. That’s literally it But creating actual chips goes far beyond just EUV light, in case you did not know. EUV machines contain 100,000 components from 5,000 different companies around the world, all of which specialize in very specific things. The US/West control the vast majority of these firms and China would have to replicate it all or most of it internally to achieve EUV lithography done by ASML. This is not something that China can will its way into, like vehicle manufacturing. This is frontier shit that China will have to work its way into by funding decades of physics research that American labs started 5 decades ago. While China is working on matching current ASML/Western capabilities, western firms will already be years ahead still because it’s not like ASML isn’t investing billions of its own dollars into research as well as America’s national labs (which were the zenith of EUV tech)
So, DUV is now easy tech? I am sure you will say the same when China starts making EUV.
They’re making 5 machines. It’ll be years before they’re making significant numbers. And DUV is old news. EUV and high na euv are what modern nodes are made with
Time can be 2030 for all you know. They have built a EUV prototype years ago. Not only that but have poached high up researchers from ASML who were credited for some breakthroughs. People keep talking about “catching up” when they really just need a mediocre machine that somewhat can produce. Even if it had half the yield it would be cheaper or at the vary least another source to put pressure on existing manufacturing. Or better yet all that is needed for China to be willing to tip Taiwan over and plant their flag. Underestimating a billion people and a long term dictatorship with a goal is crazy. Even more so as they rapidly eat our lunch in fields they couldn’t compete in a decade ago.
people really don't understand, EUV is the most complicated machine the collective west has ever made, DUV is the second most complicated machine the collective west has ever made. 28nm DUV was only achieved collectively by dozens of countries in 2008, China now can make the entire machine by itself.
Who gives a shit about cars, I'm talking about EUV 🤡
No actually I am comparing a DUV machine to a bicycle and an EUV one to a car :P
Both ASML and TSMC still benefit from DUV (20-30%). That is still a big part of the market. Not to mention that even if China brute forces 7 and 5 nm DUV, that is still better than having no access whatsoever. With their automotive sector exploding, having homegrown 14/28 nm chips is definitely worth it if they can make them substantially cheaper. But this does no mean imply that they would use it to suddenly start printing 2 or 3 nm. Not to mention that ASML is already moving on to the next stage in EUV.
Yeah, and they use EUV for it because the yields are absolute garbage on DUV. But if you don't have access to EUV, its still better than nothing.
It's hard to make chips mix and matching tool sets. You almost have to do all your DUV and EUV layers on the same tools. You don't have enough scibe real estate to be putting down multiple tool alignment marks, let alone correcting for alignment errors between tools. So if a fab has EUV ASML tools, it's highly likely they will continue to use their DUV tools
People don't understand the significance of being able to build a DUV machine entirely on your own, no country in the world comes close to being able to achieve this outside of China, DUV machines currently require a web of suppliers spanning dozens of countries each with deep institutional expertise in one tiny area, and China does everything, it won't take them long to achieve EUV after this.
This is correct. Also people are dumb and have no concept of how much harder EUV is to do. Like its at least a dozen different things like the atomic smooth mirror or the perfect tin injectors or the pure silicon that are made in only one place by one company you have to replicate domestically. 10-15 years is an optimistic outlook for how long it would take China to make one and thats being generous.
It’s near 3 decade old technology. It is impressive? Yes. Is it a big deal to western EUV lithography? No really.
“But that doesn’t mean they cannot in time” What even is this comment? Yes, if you give China 779 quintillion gorillion years, they could make anything imaginable. But we’re talking about reality here. China is producing 20 DUV machines here, 28 year old technology. Is it impressive? Sure. Few countries at all are able to produce anything relative to lithography tech. Is it a threat to western lithography companies? No. The most here is literally the limits of currently understood physics, with creations brought fourth by many dozens of companies around the world that specialize in very specific things. DUV lithography supply chains are far less complex. So while China might catch up to, say, western EUV production in 20-30 years, western EUV companies will have had those same 20-30 years to further fortify their moat. It’s also not guaranteed that China can reach EUV potential, we’re kind of just assuming it can. But assumptions over long time horizons are often wrong.
That's what the Germans thought about their cars up until mid 2010's, then they got steamrolled. From initial breakthrough to eating their lunch, it happened within a span of a decade. China is the single largest semiconductor market on earth, and it can already manufacture 5nm using repeated exposure with current DUV, which constitute majority of their machines that AMSL sold. That market share will be gone within a few years. And once EUV comes into play, same thing will happen.
Oh, really? Did you forget how you lost DRAM and NAND market share? You're only benefiting now because of the AI boom and the U.S. ban on exporting advanced EUV machines. Otherwise, you would've already gone bankrupt.
You act like ASML has some sort of magical spells protecting it. Everything is a function of resource allocation, research and time. China has both the resources and the engineers to make this work eventually, and they already have several simultaneous projects to push for EUV.
only taking apart and DUV or EUV machine from ASML and put it back together 🤣 just like they took apart an Airbus for 10yrs and came out with a Comac, but the Comac still uses 70% of western parts 🤣
They are using a different technology for EUV. They aren’t blasting tin to create EUV. It’s actually a superior method. It’s like EVs. They skipped the combustion engine and went straight for a new superior technology.
Actually no it refers to building an indigenous immersion DUV. *Whether China can indigenize photolithography machines is one of the central questions for future US-China competition over compute and AI. This piece uses the experience of ASML as a reference to argue that the late 2030s should be the anchor point for any forecast of when China produces commercial-scale EUV machines, and the mid 2030s for immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV).*
China has built an EUV prototype last year, expecting mass production of EUV by 2028
But ASML still sold 279 DUV units last year, and 48 EUV units. It’s a still a big part of their business so you’d expect some reaction [https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025](https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025)
They went from basically nothing to immersion DUV in like 6 years, covering enormous leaps in precision, supply chain work, and complex manufacturing of lenses, lasers, and a lot more. They will get to EUV a lot faster, and then leave the West in the dust as they do with every other technology. In 15 years TSMC won't even matter much to them.
Japan led DUV litho tools, not immersion DUV litho. ASML took the throne, when they achieved immersion DUV. The most difficult part of advanced process is not the light source, but between layer registration, which is on the motion stage control and calibration process. EUV is a nice and fancy name, newspaper wants to report on. But it is not the hardest part. Reporting on the precision motion control is not sexy, so no media does that.
Most Chinese went from donkeys to EVs in a lifetime so even your most absurd exaggeration is comparably. Especially when EUV is demonstrated technology.
latest from one company vs latest from other company hard to compare EUV to EUV when China makes zero of them
Contrary to your ignorance, DUV and EUV are two different things. An inferior chips is better and more valuable than a more inferior chip. Superior EUV chips are not needed in most cases at inflated prices.
All fair. But we're restating the same thing. The gap may not close but translate... china makes new DUV so ASML comes out with a more efficient EUV in 2-3 years making their DUV-push obsolete, china then gets EUV in 5 to 10 years, etc, cycle continues... China has always been in catch up. Im bullish that companies like nvda, asml, amat, tsm will continue to move that goal post forward (kind of a moores law scenario) and China will keep copying older technologies to catch up.
ASML has been making DUV emersion lithography tools since at least 2007 when I left the industry. This doesn't put China any closer to cutting edge EUV litho tools.
I don't see China or any company in the world ever replicating an EUV. Not even about manufacturing the machines, it's solving multiple scientific physics problems to get them to work. It's like ASML already created a flying car and mass produced it. While the rest of the world is still stuck on EV cars.
You're comparing 20 DUV machines with 60 EUV machines.