EUV
Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF
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China’s CXMT Surges 466% in Asia’s Largest IPO of 2026
The ASML and Chip Stocks Sell-off is an Overreaction
ASML Q1 Results: Net Sales hit €8.8B, Net Profit at €2.8B, FY26 Outlook raised. With AI driving relentless lithography demand, is ASML the ultimate AI bottleneck?
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They’re making 5 machines. It’ll be years before they’re making significant numbers. And DUV is old news. EUV and high na euv are what modern nodes are made with
Time can be 2030 for all you know. They have built a EUV prototype years ago. Not only that but have poached high up researchers from ASML who were credited for some breakthroughs. People keep talking about “catching up” when they really just need a mediocre machine that somewhat can produce. Even if it had half the yield it would be cheaper or at the vary least another source to put pressure on existing manufacturing. Or better yet all that is needed for China to be willing to tip Taiwan over and plant their flag. Underestimating a billion people and a long term dictatorship with a goal is crazy. Even more so as they rapidly eat our lunch in fields they couldn’t compete in a decade ago.
people really don't understand, EUV is the most complicated machine the collective west has ever made, DUV is the second most complicated machine the collective west has ever made. 28nm DUV was only achieved collectively by dozens of countries in 2008, China now can make the entire machine by itself.
Who gives a shit about cars, I'm talking about EUV 🤡
No actually I am comparing a DUV machine to a bicycle and an EUV one to a car :P
Both ASML and TSMC still benefit from DUV (20-30%). That is still a big part of the market. Not to mention that even if China brute forces 7 and 5 nm DUV, that is still better than having no access whatsoever. With their automotive sector exploding, having homegrown 14/28 nm chips is definitely worth it if they can make them substantially cheaper. But this does no mean imply that they would use it to suddenly start printing 2 or 3 nm. Not to mention that ASML is already moving on to the next stage in EUV.
Yeah, and they use EUV for it because the yields are absolute garbage on DUV. But if you don't have access to EUV, its still better than nothing.
It's hard to make chips mix and matching tool sets. You almost have to do all your DUV and EUV layers on the same tools. You don't have enough scibe real estate to be putting down multiple tool alignment marks, let alone correcting for alignment errors between tools. So if a fab has EUV ASML tools, it's highly likely they will continue to use their DUV tools
People don't understand the significance of being able to build a DUV machine entirely on your own, no country in the world comes close to being able to achieve this outside of China, DUV machines currently require a web of suppliers spanning dozens of countries each with deep institutional expertise in one tiny area, and China does everything, it won't take them long to achieve EUV after this.
This is correct. Also people are dumb and have no concept of how much harder EUV is to do. Like its at least a dozen different things like the atomic smooth mirror or the perfect tin injectors or the pure silicon that are made in only one place by one company you have to replicate domestically. 10-15 years is an optimistic outlook for how long it would take China to make one and thats being generous.
It’s near 3 decade old technology. It is impressive? Yes. Is it a big deal to western EUV lithography? No really.
“But that doesn’t mean they cannot in time” What even is this comment? Yes, if you give China 779 quintillion gorillion years, they could make anything imaginable. But we’re talking about reality here. China is producing 20 DUV machines here, 28 year old technology. Is it impressive? Sure. Few countries at all are able to produce anything relative to lithography tech. Is it a threat to western lithography companies? No. The most here is literally the limits of currently understood physics, with creations brought fourth by many dozens of companies around the world that specialize in very specific things. DUV lithography supply chains are far less complex. So while China might catch up to, say, western EUV production in 20-30 years, western EUV companies will have had those same 20-30 years to further fortify their moat. It’s also not guaranteed that China can reach EUV potential, we’re kind of just assuming it can. But assumptions over long time horizons are often wrong.
That's what the Germans thought about their cars up until mid 2010's, then they got steamrolled. From initial breakthrough to eating their lunch, it happened within a span of a decade. China is the single largest semiconductor market on earth, and it can already manufacture 5nm using repeated exposure with current DUV, which constitute majority of their machines that AMSL sold. That market share will be gone within a few years. And once EUV comes into play, same thing will happen.
Oh, really? Did you forget how you lost DRAM and NAND market share? You're only benefiting now because of the AI boom and the U.S. ban on exporting advanced EUV machines. Otherwise, you would've already gone bankrupt.
You act like ASML has some sort of magical spells protecting it. Everything is a function of resource allocation, research and time. China has both the resources and the engineers to make this work eventually, and they already have several simultaneous projects to push for EUV.
only taking apart and DUV or EUV machine from ASML and put it back together 🤣 just like they took apart an Airbus for 10yrs and came out with a Comac, but the Comac still uses 70% of western parts 🤣
They are using a different technology for EUV. They aren’t blasting tin to create EUV. It’s actually a superior method. It’s like EVs. They skipped the combustion engine and went straight for a new superior technology.
Actually no it refers to building an indigenous immersion DUV. *Whether China can indigenize photolithography machines is one of the central questions for future US-China competition over compute and AI. This piece uses the experience of ASML as a reference to argue that the late 2030s should be the anchor point for any forecast of when China produces commercial-scale EUV machines, and the mid 2030s for immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV).*
China has built an EUV prototype last year, expecting mass production of EUV by 2028
But ASML still sold 279 DUV units last year, and 48 EUV units. It’s a still a big part of their business so you’d expect some reaction [https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025](https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025)
They went from basically nothing to immersion DUV in like 6 years, covering enormous leaps in precision, supply chain work, and complex manufacturing of lenses, lasers, and a lot more. They will get to EUV a lot faster, and then leave the West in the dust as they do with every other technology. In 15 years TSMC won't even matter much to them.
Japan led DUV litho tools, not immersion DUV litho. ASML took the throne, when they achieved immersion DUV. The most difficult part of advanced process is not the light source, but between layer registration, which is on the motion stage control and calibration process. EUV is a nice and fancy name, newspaper wants to report on. But it is not the hardest part. Reporting on the precision motion control is not sexy, so no media does that.
Most Chinese went from donkeys to EVs in a lifetime so even your most absurd exaggeration is comparably. Especially when EUV is demonstrated technology.
latest from one company vs latest from other company hard to compare EUV to EUV when China makes zero of them
Contrary to your ignorance, DUV and EUV are two different things. An inferior chips is better and more valuable than a more inferior chip. Superior EUV chips are not needed in most cases at inflated prices.
All fair. But we're restating the same thing. The gap may not close but translate... china makes new DUV so ASML comes out with a more efficient EUV in 2-3 years making their DUV-push obsolete, china then gets EUV in 5 to 10 years, etc, cycle continues... China has always been in catch up. Im bullish that companies like nvda, asml, amat, tsm will continue to move that goal post forward (kind of a moores law scenario) and China will keep copying older technologies to catch up.
ASML has been making DUV emersion lithography tools since at least 2007 when I left the industry. This doesn't put China any closer to cutting edge EUV litho tools.
I don't see China or any company in the world ever replicating an EUV. Not even about manufacturing the machines, it's solving multiple scientific physics problems to get them to work. It's like ASML already created a flying car and mass produced it. While the rest of the world is still stuck on EV cars.
You're comparing 20 DUV machines with 60 EUV machines.
This is huge. Immersion DUV is not easy to make. There are only two companies in the whole world that can make it: ASML and Nikon. If China can make it, it is huge. China will ramp up production and dump them into the international market. Other countries will be able to buy them and make cheaper chips. Although it does not affect EUV market, it will affect the chip industry overall.
What do you want to hear? That China will never ever make a high NA EUV machine? If I said that, would you believe me? 'do you really think china, with it's highly educated workforce, with motivation of the scales isn't capable of that? Ok here goes: China will never make a high NA machine. Never ever. Hope you lap that up.
I don’t think people appreciate (or unaware) that these DUV machines (including EUV) have at least 100,000 different parts and components.
Actually, yes I misread that and was thinking EUV
It doesnt affect their monopoly at all. They are still the only ones producing EUV, and they didnt have monopoly on DUV.
isn't china EUV news and rapidly expanding ram infrastructure an black swan bearish thing for the US?
ASML should ship about 170 immersion DUV machines in 2027. Not that 20 isn't bad if China can pull this off it's another step towards chip autonomy. My point is immersion DUV is not even close to EUV in terms of complexity. It took the whole western semi conductor base 30 years to solve EUV and it nearly bankrupted ASML doing it. Japanese manufacturers like Nikon and Canon used to lead the DUV segment but they couldn't figure out EUV and gave up. EUV is probably the hardest thing humanity has ever solved and China isn't particularly close to achieving it.
China does not have EUV machines for advanced chipmaking lmfao 😂
It's a bit of a different comparison because ASML is the actual EUV hardware provider. Obviously their dominance with EUV machines is safe, but this probably puts a damper on future DUV machine sales.
Remember that report a month ago of how the U.S. was worried in April about components of EUV made its way from ASML to China. And now today China has EUV machines ready to churn out advanced chips. Crazy. *The senior administration officials said that they have evidence of ASML shipping to China specialty equipment used to transport EUV machines, as well as other components that could be used in EUV systems. The proof of those exports is too sensitive to disclose, they said, in response to multiple requests.* *A company spokesperson denied these allegations, saying, “ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China nor have we shipped to China any component, module or equipment specially designed to be used in an EUV machine.”*
It's more a signal to the market that China will eventually brute force innovation to create their own self sufficient semiconductor industry. DUV is ASML's long lasting margin business, EUV drives growth. KLAC and AMAT get hit more because they're linked as Semis, but the deeper understanding is a fear around what China will do next. They'll start to flood their businesses next year with DRAM, and supply their own DUV machines in the next few years, they'll likely start to build other innovations too which will drive down prices.
DUV is not EUV. They are quite literally worlds apart for those of us who know the tech. For those that say China is catching up, I think this news is more of an indictment that they are decades behind when it comes to photolithography.
The EUV moat is that the tolerances are insanely tight and basically at the cutting edge of known physics. The Zeiss mirrors, for example, are believed to be among the flattest surfaces in the universe. China has always historically and continues to struggle with consistently tight industrial tolerances, even with their cutting edge tech, they're not getting there any time soon.
This just shows how uninformed all of you are in how chips are made. The newest, most leading edge chips are not made entirely with EUV, they still use DUV more a very large majority of the production for those chips.
I think he's saying that this news might prove that china will eventually catch up to the tech from DUV to EUV, and the present day valuation of ASML bakes in a lot of future earnings growth, which will be significantly reduced if it is the expectation that china wont have to buy from ASML anymore. Which is a valid point.
EV was a major ten year plan this recent DUV issue happened recently and without the same long term planning. China over ordered DUV expecting the USA push to ban chip making equipment. But DUV/EUV requires massive partnerships in lots of leading manufacturing tools/equipment and maintenance even if they are starting to enter the DUV market… it’s like airline with jet planes and certain standards… I am hoping for an asml drop if it drops maybe 50% or more I am loading up
I think you're overstating the importance of this. ASML DUV isn't capacity constrained as far as I'm aware. Let's say this Chinese manufacturer manages to built 20 machines in 2027, it will be at best 2029 until they can match ASML orders and by then western logic fabs will be retiring their final DUV nodes anyways. Also all memory except SRAM is still shrinking, DRAM manufacturers are some of the earliest adopters of high NA-EUV China is not a threat to western semi-conductors this story is so overblown and every year they fail to build an EUV machine is another year western companies pull ahead.
??? You said it yourself, DUV is a lower quality alternative to EUV... ASML themselves started with DUV and moved to EUV ~10 years later. Why wouldn't a company that is trying to develop its lithography technology do the same thing? And why wouldn't a company that is making DUV today potentially be able to make EUV in 10 years?
What are you even saying... ASML is EUV... not DUV. Your comparison makes no sense. Don't even compare until china actually starts building to EUV.
With AMAT tech, DUV can be close in efficiency and precision to EUV down to 2nm at this point. Those tools are export controlled too, but not nearly as difficult to reverse engineer as a full EUV lithography machine.
Na, its important being its the process to make the machine that helps them get to the EUV knowhow. Sure China can leapfrog the time it takes or skipping the usage of some tech underneath the DUV, but the milestones that needed to be hit.
You might want to see which dozen rare earths are needed for DUV/EUV production and which single country controls 90% of those rare earth refining
The market must have known the DUV production and eventually EUV production barriers were only temporary speedbumps for China. Half of the engineers of matter at ASML are ethnically Chinese. The real battle was waged in the schools over the past 30 years and no one thought the West had a real chance
Imagine comparing the wheel to a High-NA EUV machine 😂
Even EUV is a matter of time. Still I’m giving it a few more years until they can seriously crank up the volume on DUVs
Because of a so called China breakthrough - DUV. Even though nowhere close to EUV. Its just an excuse to profit take.
This is Immersion DUV which is 2 generations old tech (EUV and now High NA EUV which are both significantly harder to achieve). We already knew China could manufacture regular DUV so the jump is not saying much. This doesn't change anything for their downstream chip manufacturing potential as they already had access to this tech via ASML (still bad for ASML of course). Apparently mass production means 5 units for 2026 and 20 in 2027.
DUV is basically the Temu EUV. (Classic China move lol). They're cheaper and more efficient machines that will make a lot of an inferior chip. This might be good for the smaller efficient (less accurate) china deepseeks. It will not affect the fronteir markets that's require superior EUV chips.
Look at what Germany its doing with phonic chips that are already deployed. You can get up to 30x energy efficiency and 50x performance gains compared to running just NVDA GPUs. Thats just the beginning. Lots of hot German companies. Also, ASML with EUV Lithography. Thats a gigantic moat.