EZA
iShares MSCI South Africa ETF
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Now this may be an extremely retarded idea but hear me out
I am going to short the whole country of South Africa.
I am going to short the whole country of South Africa.
Single Male in search of YOLO opportunities in exchange for how to track the Ever Given
I am going to short the whole country of South Africa.
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Honestly, I don't know. I used to be a poker player. One of the things I learned is that you have to divorce evaluation of one's decision-making from results. You need to be able to identify when you played badly and shouldn't make such decisions in the future even when you won a bunch of money on a hand. Similarly you need to be able to identify when you played well and congratulate yourself even when you lost a bunch of money on a hand. I made money jumping into this silver craze in the beginning of Jan. - but not much more than I made with the biggest part of my portfolio (a safer investment in EWY - thank goodness for South Korea). But I don't think my decision-making was that great. I learned a lot of what I know after-the-fact. For example, I had no idea why China's markets fell on their Friday, our Thursday evening. I just saw that they did. I only learned after from others that they shut down leveraged trading. Overall, I think I need to be more cautious and more knowledgeable for highly volatile investments like commodities. (I also lost a little money on platinum this month getting over-exuberant.) I don't know how previous metals will move in the near future. If silver drops a lot more (which I don't particularly expect), like down to $60-$65ish, I'll likely gird my loins and jump back in with buying silver again. Especially if that happens in 2nd half Feb. I put half the money I made from selling silver into more conservative country-based international ETFs. The other half I plan to put into another country-based ETF, EZA (South Africa) sometime next week. The idea being maybe this metals crash will see the price of EZA also drop significantly, but miners (which is a big part of the South African market) should still be profitable with commodities still so high compared to the last few years. So I'm hoping to use this crash to buy the dip on EZA & then start paying a lot less attention until next January. I also think South Africa's electric grid disaster will be slowly less problematic as the big solar roll-out continues, which should help improve the country's overall fundamentals. And I think their current government is competent enough. I think you are right that gold will continue to go up this year, but I'm not super-confident in that and don't think it'll go up nearly as fast as last year. I think silver will stabilize over the few days & either become boring and stagnant or, like gold, rise somewhat consistently but with less volatility. I am even less confident I am right about silver than gold. As you know there are some big events coming in March that could cause drama gain. Aside from chasing this silver moment, for the last four years I mostly pick some ETFs and keep things steady for the next year before re-evaluating when it is time to max out my Roth IRA contribution again. I have a fair knowledge of politics and international affairs & keep up with such things, and for the last four years that strategy seems to be able to benefit from my knowledge base.
Have a look at EZA. It is linked to south africa- gold is a big factor to SA's future and the country is relatively stable (boring) from an investment point of view.
I've made about 30% gain investing in EZA or the south Africa ETF this year and about 14% on AFK the continent wide ETF. that to me is the way to go. South Africa has good reporting mechanisms, but the rest of the continent is a lot more iffy.
South Africa / EZA, Columbia / COLO, Chile / ECH, Greece / GREK, China Small Cap ECNS, Canada EWC, Poland EPOL, etc and a good number of other. Lots in Latin America, Africa, and East Asia.
\> The President participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the President of the Republic of South Africa Hard to make a solid thesis about a possible trade here. Probably going to buy some shares of EZA (South Africa ETF).
It’s time to invest in Africa EZA
How I got them was on Schwab > Research > ETFs > Find ETFs > Category filter > Other regions. But I have ones like ECH for Chile, EPOL for Poland, EWW for Mexico, EZA for South Africa, I think they are mostly iShares funds.
Go to Schwab or fidelity and look up etfs for countries. Pretty much every major country has one. EZA for South Africa ECH for Chile etc. that’s what I’m all in
Someone please explain why EZA is not a short given the confirmation that 50k Boers have already filed for asylum in the US? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EZA/
EZA set to rip this summer as new gov comes into power starts real reforms on ports, grid etc
Is it time to get into $EZA? South Africa finally has the possibility of having a somewhat competent government under the new coalition
Filmed in South Africa…. Calls on Africa EZA
Sell ATM naked calls on EZA and roll them over each month. Buy put options on EZA after any rips.
Short EZA. Top ~50 or so economies have a managed etf. EWQ=France , EWI= Italy , EWW = Mexico and so on
Idk, but I bought EZA because all the ships have to go around Cape of Good Hope now.
You can shoot me that 15% in EZA and I’ll give you a better ROI, because I’ll at least send you pictures of me doing fun things with the money.
When are we shorting South Africa again $EZA
on a risk-adjusted basis, South African stocks are worse than S&P500. Your claim is equivalent to saying some rando stock with insane idiosyncratic (in this case governmental) risk that shot up 20% is better than the S&P500 lol. EZA (MSCI south african ETF) has merely roughly doubled in nearly 20 years with significantly more risk than the S&P500. There's absolutely no reason to hold EM until such a time that they do start actually shooting up on a risk-adjusted basis. 2000's werethat time. Now it's gone. Maybe it will come back, but no use holding for who knows how long until it does.
I've seen people talk about EZA and AFK, these are the biggest Africa EFTs
I wish. I’m traveling overseas EZA and everything it touches is gross.
Anyone invest in Africa? EZA or EGPT
>\#FedFAQ: Does the Federal Reserve maintain accounts for individuals? \>No. The Federal Reserve Banks provide financial services to banks and government entities only. \>Learn more: [federalreserve.gov/faqs/does-the-…](https://t.co/5vjKq2cvhg) https://t.co/EZA8ATxw0V ^Federal ^Reserve ^[@federalreserve](http://twitter.com/federalreserve) ^at ^2022-08-10 ^14:01:10 ^EDT-0400
Go for internal based ETF’s that support emerging markets. The ROI on those are usually commendable. One example is EZA.
I saw that when your numbers came out. Crazy fr, but explain why my EZA eurozone put is still red. :)
I know South Africa is going to collapse, but have been losing money in $EZA for years.
AMZN will likely go up....I'm looking at calls PTON as well. EZA is one that should fall a little harder because Winter/Summer tourism is big for South Africa and now all the Euro-snow birds won't come down. This variant is ultimately stupid and just another fear porn tactic especially since the 'experts' are already saying that the symptons are mild, but if the markets are spooked, puts will be in order for a week or two.....then we climb again
I held EZA puts from this summer, closed them last month.
Undervalued but I think a lot of the trend was just South Africa in general, so watch EZA etf (South Africa) to know if you should exit, it seems to follow it closely
My EZA puts just went green for the first time. Puts on South Africa.
So you'd prefer to hold where? Going down by market cap: * India? Promising, but an absolute mess compared to China. I live between the two, I have spent time in both, India is just... a different world. Maybe one day it's going to be different but if you asked me if I had more confidence in the development of India or China, there's no question. The only thing India has is it's so much lower right now, it has more room to grow. * Brazil? Middle income trap, and screwed up in so many ways. I work with a few Brazilians, to say they aren't optimistic about their own country would be an understatement. * South Africa? Has a lot of problems. GDP/capita is almost 40% *lower* than it was 10 years ago. Stock market down over the last decade. And a full quarter of South Africa's market cap is basically... Tencent, it would be down even further were it not for that, Tencent has actually singlehandedly propped up the entire South African stock market. But it's Tencent so you presumably don't want that. * Saudi Arabia? Immensely messed up place and the key industry is long term decline. * Hong Kong- I'd actually have some time for this one, it's a great place, but it's still "China" and you have all the problems of CCP interference and the long-term prognosis is mixed both with the protests domestically and a slow but * Russia? Run by oligarchs, Putin, yada yada. * Thailand? Military dictatorship, very lackadaisical business culture, tourism is now devastated. This is already most of EM by market cap, we're down to the countries that are only 2% of VWO at this point. The point is, all emerging markets have issues. Other emerging markets, other than China, have their own issues. And frankly, living in a developing country and having spent time in China, I would be more optimistic about China than many But we don't know- so holding lots of EM is a good idea. Incidentally, here's the performance of the iShares country ETFs for the BRICs + Taiwan over the last decade. And it's China and Taiwan you're trying to avoid in EM? https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?MCHI,EWT,INDA,EWZ,EZA&n=2384&O=011000
Buying puts on South Africa January 22 $EZA 25P
For those interested in the topic: The ETF following Soth Africa is iShares MSCI South Africa: $EZA It captures 85% of the publicly available market, excluding all small-caps. From its minimums of march, at $23, made a peak in June at $55, for a return of +140% Since 1st of June, it has gone down -16% at $47 today Expense Ratio 0.59% Assets Under Management $322.77M Average Daily $ Volume $13.63M Average Spread (%) 0.08% Competing ETFs: FLZA Main Holdings from EZA (Name / Holding Allocation) Naspers Limited Class N 21.71% FirstRand Limited 6.11% Impala Platinum Holdings Limited 4.79% MTN Group Limited 4.31% Sibanye Stillwater Limited 4.14% Standard Bank Group Limited 3.91% Capitec Bank Holdings Limited 3.11% Gold Fields Limited 3.05% AngloGold Ashanti Limited 2.99% Sasol Limited 2.93% According to ToS platform, options volume is shitty, but not inexistent. Maybe you can buy some puts.
For the SUEZ canal right? It’s up for the past year so he might’ve lost a ton on that trade. EZA seems to only be recently dipping.
Are EZA puts worth buying? My DD: https://reddit.com/r/southafrica/comments/ojb9ry/incredible_footage_captured_by_kieran_allen_i/
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph. Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years. That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American. Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock. I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems. My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
putting all of my money in EZA, there is no way this can go wrong.
Wouldn’t it just be easier to buy puts on EZA?
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph. Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years. That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American. Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock. I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems. My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph. Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years. That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American. Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock. I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems. My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
PUTS on EZA. Puts on South Africa. Based on people lining up to steal gasoline with buckets, I think they are on a bullet train to collapse.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph. Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years. That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American. Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock. I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems. My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
You're obscenely heavy in tech and generally heavily concentrated. I'm personally more tepid on Apple so that would be the primary one I'd look to pare down. Kelly criterion says aim for positions that are 5% of your portfolio. Consider replacing some SQ with IPAY and NIO with ICLN (down recently due to the rebalance of the SP ESG Index). Your concentration in tech also makes you relatively vulnerable to rising interest rates. I like Brazil or Australia (EWZ or EZA) for heavily commodity-indexed ETFs which helps in a rising interest rate/reflation/dollar weakening environment as well. Consider an oil company, a Financials company, a collection of small companies (like the Russell 2k, IWM) or SPX value ETF like SVX to balance your interest rate exposure. I'm also moderately skeptical of such a large position in ABBV because of their swiftly maturing patents, but not enough to make much of a fuss. Cheers dude.
EMXC is good for emerging markets without China. I currently hold a basket of individual country stocks: VNM, EZA, EWZ, THD, EIDO, and so on. iShares is good for liquidity, but if you're in it for the long run, Franklin Templeton has some low fee etfs for India, Mexico, and Brazil. I buy into the idea that there's more potential in emerging markets for growth. Countries in Southeast Asia, for instance, increasingly have better educated populations, and more stable business environments. I think it's worth betting on specific countries. Also, just buying and holding something like VT is so goddamn boring. I'd like to see if I can do a little better. If you want a more strategic way to invest in emerging markets, look into mutual funds. For example, Mobius runs a really good one that invests in emerging markets.
I bought into EZA around that time. Took profits and dipped. I think the blockage did effect the stock but minimally and the effect has passed.
So don't invest in EZA? Or still do? I think I'm just going to sit this one out.
Buying EZA: it’s going to bring all goods near South Africa and benefit their economy
There was a DD someone did on EZA. Might be a play, not financial advice, hell, not any kind of advice.
I’m only holding EZA (South African ETF) assuming quite a few ships will be rerouted through there. I’ve been told oil is a good way to go too. Just saw news that they got the ship to move a little bit it’s not out yet
South Africa is going to have more commerce from the rerouting. Maybe a play in S Africa ETFs EZA or FLZA would be more appropriate than investing in tankers.
Better play off the Suez canal fiasco is South African ETFs like FLZA or EZA
Who else thinking EZA looking pretty good right about now?
Go into google and type in "south africa etf" and pick one. I chose EZA
I also believe Africa will be more important economically in the future, but for many of the nations they also need to develop more basic things like infrastructure first before they have a stock market. iShares has ETFs for South Africa ETF (EZA), and in what they call "frontier markets" (FM) which includes Morocco. but those are the only things I'm aware of specifically for African stocks. but you need to account for very high risk of volatility and political turmoil with these types of investments. Warren Buffett says he keeps stock certificates from Batista-era Cuba as a reminder for the risks of international investing.
Investing in Aferica isn't ideal at least not now, most countries there have very little shareholder and real estate laws so getting scared is incredibly easy also most governments are not doing to great, your best bets would be to go with rewanda, south Aferica, Nigeria and some other but most countries are under developed or are in political turmoil. If you are going to do this an etf would EZA, AFK, NGE, but just do your reaserch and do it well this is not like investing in the US stock or real estate markets at all.
Just pick one. EZA, FLZA, SAS, I dont care. Any of them should do well.
That's the point. Pick one. I chose EZA, but FLZA is also a good choice.
I went into EZA which is a South African ETF. Here’s my theory, if the tanker remains stuck for a while all ships will have to make a 12,000 mile journey around Africa and South Africa will see a surge in freight business for re fueling ect. It’s def speculative. But since yesterday the stock already rose 2%
EZA and FLZF are on robinhood.
I invested in EZA, but there are other good South african ETFs, google it.
But EZA is up 5% since friday. When that ship is still stuck on Monday, you can bet that the stock will be up another 5% or more that day.
South Africa has a bunch of ETFs to choose from. EZA and FLZA seem like good bets.
SA index etfs on monthly charts (going back to pre-2004 in the case of EZA) show that they're rising post-kung flu plunge back to where they had been prior, but are now running into a support/resistance "pivot point" (this time around it's resistance). Meanwhile, the long term trajectory of the Rand is like your wife going down on her boyfriend. Then when you consider the sailing range of modern container ships travelling at 15-18 knots, they can easily make an Asia-to-Europe run around the horn without stopping. Bye bye, tendies.
Not too sure about EZA etf. They have one company (naspers) which is over 20% of holdings. Not as diversified as I like in an Etf.
$EZA looking kinda nice right now, Might have to throw in a few bananas.
Would April EZA $50 calls be stupid? I heard that ship might take months to clear out.
Last time a ship got stuck in the 60s South Africa’s economy tripled as ships looked for other trade alternatives. EZA $50 calls.
It will be wedged for months, get some EZA $50 calls till then
This can and probably will be way larger of an impact than expected. I’ve been through the Panama Canal, 18 years USCG experience, 4 years working at NYC ports. I know these situations. Sunday is an attempt to free the ship with the highest tide, full moon and all. After than its going to be a long haul. Probability of Sunday working is extremely very low. These ships have so much weight and when they run aground they suck into the earth. The physics of lifting them from being stuck is incredibly and it’s not gonna happen here. After that failed attempt comes trying to make the ship lighter by removing containers, and deballasting fuel. If you look at the images, the ship isn’t just sotting at a pier with cranes ready to work. So setting up cranes to take off the containers is going to take time. Two weeks atleast. My very educated prediction is it is going to take three weeks minimum to release the ship from blocking the canal. Worst case scenario is the ship is improperly deballasted and it lists or capsizes in the canal. Then we are talking 6 months to clear the ship. EZA for the benefits the South Africa will reap with the changes in scheduling and course correction. Russia is working on the North Sea route now to entice shippers with another route. Oil will go up!!!! July Puts on Nike and Apple.