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Anybody trying to play $GAP earnings next week ?
GAP calls are gonna print
No shit it doesn't lol. The only thing that matters is if people are buying or selling. If the risk of selling is high, don't hold it b/c shit will go down. We saw that this week (AI IS A BUBBLE!!!). We're seeing that everywhere as people sell left right and center. I saw the trends just starting last week - which I identified as a macro risk. I posted last week what I did re: tech - sell it all and go cash. I was bang on the money. A bunch of guys thought I was dumb for selling it all. Fuck em, risk management wins. [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1ok4mlj/tech\_week\_exited\_all\_tech\_realized\_profits/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1ok4mlj/tech_week_exited_all_tech_realized_profits/) \--- This week I averaged into GAP calls. (22 & 24c's). \--- Today I played 0DTE's. Good money on them. [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1or2d1b/10k\_28k\_180\_gain\_0dte\_scalps\_this\_morning/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1or2d1b/10k_28k_180_gain_0dte_scalps_this_morning/) \--- All 3 plays were correct. TBH I rarely do DD / a deep dive. It literally doesn't matter. I'll do DD to get long term conviction - but that doesn't mean jack shit short term. IE: Long term I'm bullish on GAP, but I still sold my shit the other week (as I thought others would). I was right. I waited for a dip and re-entered. Markets are weird.
GAP makes a lot of sense. Likely strong performance from recent viral ad campaign. Government reopening before earnings which is bullish for whole market. Supreme court striking down tariffs would give them an additional bump. I'm in.
Thanks. GAP is going insanely well - I bought back heavy into calls between 22.5 & 23.0 \--- Used to have 25c & 23c's, but exited those the other week. Primed to do well - ER's in 2 weeks!
I'm out of the casino for the weekend. Hope everyone is enjoying a basket of freshly baked tendies \--- This week was BTFD on GAP. Jan 22c's & 24c's. Today was 0DTE scalping day Got paid for both 🤝 \--- Goodluck regards, seeya next week 🚀
Thanks! BMNR -> I have crypto exposure, so a no go for me. AMPx -> I'll look into. \--- My only high risk thing as stated is the GAP here. Sitting on cash and just looking around.
good shit! I played 0DTE's today & otherwise just held my bags. Only real "high risk" one things I own here are GAP calls - and those printed today 🚀 \--- What are you buying?
lol. I'm playing 0DTE's with < 0.1% of my capital, we're fine. Just a fun little game. GAP calls are carrying me today, up massively on those right now. \--- I won 5/6 today 0DTE's today. Cut losses on my 666p's already. That pump was spooky
Closed my puts. Took the L. Oh well. 5/6 today, not too shabby. GAP carrying me today! LFG 🚀
Lol, fair enough. The guys in the daily are actually kinda smart a lot of the time, I chat with them before entering into positions / follow what everyone else thinks. It's a much better approach than trying to do it alone. Degenerate as fuck - but some of them are actually good traders. \--- \> Amazing how my lost are huge easily but my gains less than 100$ every time Gotta risk money to make money. 0DTE's are basically lotto tickets. Never forget that. \--- \> Fucking quantum Lol, a lot of guys on WSB's are in it. I'm personally not playing that. The only high risk thing I'm in here are GAP calls. I'll continue to hold those lol.
GAP holding it's own all things considered 👌
DD is perfect, extremely detailed like in 4K with right noise. Rise of working class, GAP is waiting ! Please suggest some shovel stocks :P
I sold out of all tech last week on thurs. Timed the top almost perfectly. Bought GAP and currently more or less a wash on those.
GAP is where it was 1 year ago. Bag hold it into oblivion with retail struggles as everyone loses their job and the stock market tanks
GAP keeping my entire portfolio green
Long time ago lol. Uh - I'm basically holding GAP and chilling in cash gang since last Thurs.
GAP is attracting gen z gen alpha
$2.25k bet on GAP calls because everyone is wearing GAP
Many retailers are up today. See American Eagle (+5.5%), Lulu (+4.5%), GAP (+6.1%). I believe it's largely because there's a good chance tariffs get removed. That's really good for all of these guys.
GAP almost hit $24. LFG 🚀
The problem is with how the options are priced. IV is super low on them so the market isn't pricing in much movement on GAP. That means if it actually moves (up or down) then the calls get crazy volatile. Have you looked at the payoff matrix of them? I use [https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/) to visualize it before I buy anything. Often I'll look thru quite a few options and take into consideration current market conditions, expected movements, expected payoffs, etc, etc. Then I'll pick a bunch that look the most appealing. I don't trade options based off price action - it's on thesis. My thesis is that they likely grew (ie: see trends) and we will get real numbers around that coming up (ER's). The 25c's are high risk options here. Personally I'm heavy in 22c's and 24c's at the moment. They looked appealing to me on the dip. \--- Goodluck!
Can't help you with any specific instruments - options are insanely volatile. I personally I held jan 25c's (my initial calls) thru a \~65% drawdown and sold for a profit at \~24 - for no reason other than "people probably take profit, so it might dip a bit". Then... it dipped & I picked up more. 3500 calls on Friday & another 2500 on Monday - personally I'm bullish as I've outlined in the thesis above. I don't trade calls via price action but rather based on thesis. Will those be ITM? I don't know. I hope so. I suspect GAP is poised to do very well running up into & post ER's - but really that's just a shot in the dark. We won't know until we have the numbers.
Aritzia has been growing like crazy - no denying that. I don't think we will see major growth on the other brands as I haven't seen as big of a push as I did with GAP. Thanks! Appreciate the comments, they are helpful.
\> The bear case is a maybe more of an overall bear case for most of the industry imo. Most of the players just cant grow meaningfully so they eek out marginal improvements and get a 5-8 time cash flow multiple for it. There are counterexamples. For example - see Aritzia. It's up over 100% on the 1yr and 375% on the 5yr. It's currently sitting at a PE of 40. \> Valuline has them growing cash flow only 10% from 2025-2030. So the entire sector just doesn't grab any inst interest because its been a meh business for 20 years. Correct. On their last ER's they really didn't forecast much growth either, but imo the team sandbags their guidance so they can get beats - ie: GAP has beaten the last several ER's in a row. The problem with using past data to predict future growth is it doesn't take into account social trends very much - which are volatile and change. I'm inclined to believe GAP is doing a great job bringing brand awareness back. See: trends. Trends don't imply sales tho, we won't see anything until the next ER's
Really appreciate the comments. \> Tariffs could 100% be an issue. I believe it's everyones largest concern (including, ie, mine). Yes, I'm inclined to agree. They were discussed over 30 times on the last ER's and it was the most discussed topic via analysts. I think there's a lot of uncertainty around them right now. GAP is diversifying their supply chain to mitigate the effects - with \~10% of inventory produced in china as of their last ER's and down to \~3% by EOY. \> Gap has to prove that their campaigns they have done lead to sales and conversion not just impressions. I think it’s really unknown until their earnings. 100% correct. We won't see this until their ER's, which are in less than 3 weeks. Trends and sales are often correlated, but not implicated. Incomplete data here. \> Old navy needs to maintain or increase their sales, banana republic also needs to do the same as well and any recovery story for Athleta. Old navy is the largest contributor to GAPs sales. It's over half of their sales iirc. On their last ER's they stated that they expect it to continue to do well & continue growing. GAP is their 2nd largest brand, and is the one I suspect we will see meaningful growth on. What I'm seeing online suggests that things might actually be selling (although I have no evidence yet, only speculation). I guess a concern of mine is how much is selling, and how much of an impact will it have? GAP is only 1 brand. We won't know until we see the numbers. BR & Athleta are likely small enough that even if they just "go sideways" and don't really grow / do much I suspect the much larger brands (old navy & gap) will dominate them. \> Their campaign with Katseye has faded out which is no surprise, but I do like is that they are able to do something different for the brand This is very true re: katseye. Trends come and go. What matters is the stickiness of them. What I liked is that they launched several followup ones (none near as viral) and they all seemed to do incredibly well. IE: See the Sandy Liang collection. I'm inclined to believe they increased their brand awareness via these campaigns. This is why I was looking at more recent campaigns / trends (the last one I saw was 3 weeks ago and sold out more or less instantly). Katseye was definitely the most prominent one though. \> This could potentially be the blueprint for Gap to bring cultural relevance again by putting themselves with thoughtful collaborations. I'm hoping.
The bear case is a maybe more of an overall bear case for most of the industry imo. Most of the players just cant grow meaningfully so they eek out marginal improvements and get a 5-8 time cash flow multiple for it. Valuline has them growing cash flow only 10% from 2025-2030. So the entire sector just doesn't grab any inst interest because its been a meh business for 20 years. The big boys want either crazy (large cap) growth with upside catalysts or they want years of proven, guaranteed mid/high single digit growth, high margins and a shareholder friendly capital return program so they can "buy and hold" forever. They seem to be more agnostic about industry with these. Shit.... TJMaxx is one of the largest retailers in the country by market cap because of that phenomenon (4 times the size of target at $159 billion! lol). To offset that if they can get into the low double digits and really prove then have a real multi year runway then the stock could def re-rate. See URBN and ANF. For Gap to 2 or 3 x from here the GAP brand will have to have a 90s moment - back then GAP was considered quality, stylish and a sought after "brand" not just a store brand. People wanted GAP jeans not just decent jeans at a decent price. You were cool if you wore GAP lol. It might happen idk but I'm rooting for them.
Thanks. I didn't realize point (1) - that's good to know. I knew insider ownership was high tho. "GAP is dead" is the average sentiment I've found among most investors & is honestly what I thought too until I actually looked. I thought it went out of style 15 years ago - but the younger generations are now "too young" to remember that GAP isn't cool. \--- Are there any major bear arguments or anything that I've missed or overlooked? I know the market reacted very poorly to tariffs on retailers in general (ie: GAP dropped 22% overnight) - but I believe it's mostly priced in. Old navy is doing quite well & growing. They're really focusing on the GAP brand right now (see: trends / campaigns / advertising). I agree with Athleta, but thankfully Old Navy & GAP dominate their sales. \--- It really liekly need a stellar ER's / to wow people -- yes
FBL, BROS, GAP, BULL. I'd just average my current positions. Im sure there are generational plays coming up, but i'd stick to what I hold already.
Which GAP calls did you add? I've still got some Jan 25c, thinking maybe lower strike or?
GAP is only 1cent away from being green
Aight. I'll let AMZN coast for a couple of more days before moving over to GAP.
u/paperhandsthedip i summon you! When does GAP drop earning?
#holy shite we are going GAP UP TO 720.69 today
lmao. I'm invested in a ton of stuff - not much tech here. I fear a bubble tbh. My largest investment is currently GAP ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯ (got some ETF's / indicies too, but I don't count those)
Hopped back into the GAP today ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
What’s everyone’s thoughts on TNMG? Hoping with its news it may GAP UP? Sometime soon? Needs volume - but it had good news - ?
Sold everything besides my TSLA shares GAP calls, a few DNUT calls, abs my BYND calls that are house money
I am up 100% on my 80 GAP contracts, so I sold half, everything left is pure profit to run or fall as the market does. If market dips, I have money to buy!
Starting to see some solid $GAP gain porn. A regard showed me +125% in less than a month. He full ported and sent me a screenshot a few weeks ago. He just showed me an update. Up over 200k. Well played regard, well played.
$GAP. People printed on that one. Well played everyone who got in
Legend. Keep up the awesome DDs. Followed you on UNH as well. What’s next? Wait until GAP earnings 11/20?
did someone say... $GAP?
If people wonder why we shitpost. It's because it's free alpha and lets me know what to play. Gives you a slight edge. I literally only bought AMZN last week because of shitposting. All the guys I shitposted with (over 90%, no meme) said AMZN was undervalued. So i bought calls. +150k this week. #worth. Thanks chat. Honestly I bought GAP because of the same thing (+800k). It works.
SOFI calls -> GOOGL calls -> BROS calls -> GAP calls You're welcome
GAP - up 10% on the week, over 20% in two weeks. The calls I got upticked by 300% & 400% since the bottom. Literally nothing but green on that one 🚀. Congrats to the holders!
Well done. I have shares. Its a slight gamble with options, might have bought them too if it wasnt tied to NUVB and GAP which have been very profitable. For now, path has good momentum to go to 18 - 20 if AI doesnt dump with tech earnings
Bless my GOOG and GAP calls that are bailing out my poor decisions with FNV and RGLD
I was heavily invested in GAP (my largest bag that jumped 8% last week) and I bought amazon calls - which are also up massively. I made over 400k last week on those two alone
Even $GAP is going up. That's cool.
Yo, thank you for thr GAP post btw.
Makes sense, I didn’t look at it that through that perspective always thought these billionaires just borrowed against what they owned. Hoping Amzn has a slight run up to earnings so I can de-risk some of my positions as I hold for earnings. GAP and NBIS is what I’m looking to roll these into.
Unfortunately there’s no GAP store here .
73 Jan 25C for GAP if I waited 1 more day I could have 100 contracts when it dropped. Lets see if they print
Yes - macro correlations are a very real thing. My "defensive" plays right now are Canadian banks (TD, RBC), BRK (love brk), and GAP of all things. I'll hold those thru as big of a drawdown as I need - they'll be fine. Never sell significant stakes in those. Generally what I do once a bear market starts (or we get drawdowns) is just rotate my capital into BRK (or something similar) and... wait. Do literally nothing. Never go to cash (I don't like sitting out incase it bulls back). Most cash gang misses buying back in and get fucked. By staying in the market - that doesn't happen. Once a bull starts again I'll rotate the defensive things into high risk again. At the moment my portfolio is\* quite defensive, but I'm still playing catalysts with calls
Yeeep. That's what I did with GAP. I averaged down. The screenshot shown above is massively green on every position now. I took out quite a bit of profits, but still got \~1m in. Letting that ride
My broker wants me to pay 25% mark up for the exact same GAP contracts, is that normal? I'm not from the US
lol. Fair enough. Goodluck on the plays! I've already taken significant profits out of GAP / derisked a bit. Still have a large bag. Taking profits never hurts.
I had a 40k basis GAP position that I sold for 75k today, which included 140 of those 25s. If it dips at all again before earnings, might have to rebuy 20k of those 25s.
Because - it showed the advertising works - even if it's controversial. GAPs new campaigns have had over 100x higher interaction than last year - and it's \*not\* to the mango crowd. This is a new audience market that they are currently not hitting. Why would you bet against that? IMO it's foolish. I guess it doesn't really matter to me tho. The only thing that matters is tendies, and I'm up over a mil on GAP. Ya'll missed out
Why so conservative for GAP? I’m eyeing mid dec with 28
Btw guys - GAP isn't dead. The team can advertise. Insanely well. Look at the trends - they're (no meme) over 100x more searched than last years campaigns. Also - they're gonna be at mango events. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gap-participate-trump-us-anniversary-221031812.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gap-participate-trump-us-anniversary-221031812.html)
GAP has a big gap to fill from May
They thought I was crazy investing into GAP and AMZN calls. I'm up a fuckton. Like - a lot lot. Goodluck chat!
Imagine if you full ported GAP. You'd be up like 250-300% rofl
GAP made a nice move today. I have high expectations for their earnings too
asia will see discount and buy hopefully, europoors are gonna be dumb as usually, so idk, hopefully a GAP UP
They'll be good / fine imo. I literally just trimmed (ie: reduced) my position as I was overexposed. Don't look beyond that. When trimming - I drop the lowest EV thing in the portfolio (which for GAP was my 25c's).
Because of my risk tolerances. I loaded up heavily on the dip due to a lopsided risk matrix on GAP (very high probability of up, very very low of down). After running \~15%+ in 10 days, risk profile / matrix changes. It's still positive EV, but not as positive as it used to be. So I trim to bring it inline with my other investments. I was overexposed to gap relative to my portfolio - so derisked. I don't want to continue to hold incase it does reverse. I don't see that happening... but it IS a risk.
GAP +6.3% intraday. Maybe I shouldn't have trimmed it 🤔
Ngl, GAP has some good sweater options.. might have to cop some too.
If GAP hits $25, I'ma start rocking them exclusively
When will you close out your GAP options? Realistically how high do you think it can pump before 1/16/2026?
I mean, I have a finite amount of capital and I put it where I think the highest EV play is. I have capital I reserve for shares (-> lower risk) and capital for options (->higher risk) in this portfolio. I keep share capital in shares & option capital in options. It's just a risk management technique. Basically - I bought \~$1m of GAP shares just over \~$20 and sold them all at more or less $23 just over a week later. Then with the capital + gains I bought AMZN shares. I suspect AMZN has a better chance of running in the short term - so I bought them. \--- Rotating capital just means you move capital from some investment into another one. You always want to have a somewhat diversified portfolio of investments. If I think something has a better chance of going up in the short term relative to another investment, I'll move all the capital from the lower EV one into the higher EV one. GAP just pumped 15% in like 10 days. I don't see it doing that in the next 10 days. I suspect we see somewhat sideways / slow drift up into ER's. AMZN on the otherhand has ER's coming up & I think they'll be fine. So I suspect the returns are higher there (in the short term). IF I'm correct, I'll sell all the AMZN and rotate back into some other thing. \--- Basically - I don't trade with conviction. I trade with the idea that everything is in constant motion and you need to be able to quickly move capital from something slow / lower EV into something higher EV if you see the chance. I might rotate back into GAP shares before ER's if I think they'll run. That's sorta how I manage my portfolio. I often only hold things for a few days / weeks, and move capital into some other play.
Rotated all my GAP shares (\~1m, +15% in one week - realizing profits) into AMZN shares. IMO Amazon is underpriced & with earnings coming up are hopefully going to be alright. They're only up \~0.5% YTD. Current position on AMZN is \~1m in shares, \~200k in options (Nov 21, 225c). If ER's are good & they pop, I'll likely rotate again. Still have > $1m in exposure to GAP. If they don't, I'll baghold for a while. It's amazon & shares... they'll be fine.
ANF doesn't have the hype, that's the problem. Look at the TEAM. GAP keeps executing insanely well. They launched 3 highly successful ad campaigns within a \~2.5 month period and now they're even gonna be adveritisng at trump events. This is super bullish for them. GAP's new team (note: NEW TEAM) can do effective advertising. That's very good - advertising tends to be correlated with increased sales & general hype / positive sentiment. ANF doesn't have this. It's why I never touched it
Never forget to take profits out along the way. Context: I've been trimming my GAP position a bit. I'm overexposed as-is. Just risk management / profit taking. Anyone that followed should be up massively now. Anyone who followed the average down is \~50-100% green. I would suggest you take some profits out. Goodluck 2 all.
GAP! Almost 6% intraday, lfg