ICE

Sieskuh

We got a Nissan Leaf lease. It's 500 EUR a month. Which is a lot but compared to an ICE second hand it's not that much. For example something like a 5 year old 100.000km Renault Clio is like 8.000 EUR to purchase, 120 EUR for insurance (because we are new drivers), maintenance, taxes and of course gasoline prices. The last one being at 2 EUR/L or 8.4USD/gallon. We calculated it to be about 20EUR per month more expensive over a 5 year period in total about 1.200 EUR. And we get a bigger more luxurious car. It's great :)

Ehralur

Tesla is expecting the Model Y to become the best selling car in the worst in 2022 or 2023. And it's only up from there. Meanwhile Toyota's sales are going to plummet. They're still planning to sell 1-1.5M EVs in 2030, which means at most they'll be selling 4-6M cars in total by then. If there will even be that much demand for ICE vehicles still.

aka0007

There is no luxury in still selling traditional vehicles. As soon as supply and demand for autos balances out, they will have to reduce prices on ICE vehicles very fast and watch those profits disappear. ICE vehicles is a dead business on its last legs. Profits were helped by COVID due to causing supply-demand imbalances, but that will go away and so will any profits on ICE vehicles. It will be a race to the bottom pretty soon.

Ehralur

This is my dream. To be able to tell my grandchildren that I've never owned an ICE car. Unfortunately Teslas are pretty expensive, especially in my country (second hand Model 3s start around €40,000 and people don't use loans to buy cars) and all the cheaper EVs suck ass. But hopefully I'll be able to bridge the gap until I can buy the Tesla.

bitflag

The margins is a fair point. Long term though I'm unsure why Tesla would have double the margins of other automakers once those have moved fully to EV. Rationally they should all converge to similar margins, as it happens in most industries: if Tesla found some new way to make cars so much cheaper, it'll be copied, but I suspect it's just that other carmakers EV production lines are still small and not yet fully optimized for scale the same their ICE production lines are.

Sieskuh

We bought an EV as our first car. We will probably never own an ICE car.

iqisoverrated

Comparing margins on sales price between EVs and ICE cars is a bit tricky, because manufacturers look at money generated by each sale (which includes service, repairs, ... all that nifty stuff they charge you once they have locked you into their ecosystem with the initial sale ) Those contribute markedly less to overall earnings with EVs. It's also the reason why you generally see higher prices for EVs than for ICE vehicles because the overall margin has to be earned up front rather than over the lifetime of the car (and why it's important to compare cars on TCO and not on sticker price)

LuncheonMe4t

I haven't looked, but I'm curious what margins are like with say F-150 Lightning vs. F-150 ICE vehicles. I'm sure margins will improve with volume, but would be curious to see if anyone knows?

iqisoverrated

And every EV they sell is basically one less ICE car they sell...all the while bleeding customers to competitors with stronger EV sales. Not a position to envy.

postblitz

Those ICE cars running around everywhere get by further but don't get any younger. A lot of people, myself included, will never own another ICE car.

flicter22

>But to dismiss the expertise in mass production of legacy automakers is just tuning out facts you don't like. This is woefully ignorant. They are great at manufacturing but rely on suppliers far too much today which we saw kick their asses. The supplies needed to build EVs is nothing like ICE due to the need to lock down lithium and nickel supply which tesla has done and the others are struggling to get contracts for.

flanflan5

Lol, did you know EVs are very different from ICE vehicles? All the best engineers are at Tesla.

devereaux

Ford still has all the same problems it did before the EV bubble inflated, and no sign that any of those real problems are going away. They still have a bad balance sheet, mediocre products, and tons of operating expense for which they effectively need all that cash-on-hand every year. No plan to meet their EV R&D goals or plan to retain their core ICE F-150 consumer base. Ford is the kind of company that will say that "their products are so popular that they had to shut down production" with a straight face, and idiots nowadays eat it right up. The only good thing that happened for them this year was Rivian blowing up when it went public, so Ford could dip out ASAP with a gain that they hopefully use wisely. Don't count on that happening though. I'm sure they think they are blessed to have billions in 9% junk bonds outstanding too.

guggi_

Yeah but ICE it’s a low margin business, EVs are high margin, see the 30% gross profit that Tesla has Tesla has like 2/5 Ford revenue but same net income. And don’t forget to check the debt

esp211

The reason the legacy auto have such a low PE is because their growth is basically capped. They will be replacing their ICE business with EV while Tesla will eat away at their ICE business. I don't think most of the legacy auto will exist in 10-20 years because they won't be able to transition and adapt quick enough. They will probably all end up merging while newer tech companies take over the auto market.

VisualMod

>ICE'S NYSE AMERICAN AND NYSE ARCA OPTIONS SAY ISSUE AFFECTING TRADING FLOORS HAS BEEN RESOLVED, OPEN OUTCRY TRADING IS NOW AVAILABLE ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-01-26 ^09:33:16 ^EST-0500

VisualMod

>ICE'S NYSE AMERICAN AND NYSE ARCA OPTIONS SAY ELECTRONIC TRADING NOT AFFECTED BY CONNECTIVITY ISSUE ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-01-26 ^09:26:31 ^EST-0500

rebeltrillionaire

It's the halo effect. It's actually what helped Tesla become Tesla. Tesla Solar Panels or Roof + Tesla Battery + Tesla + Tesla Charger Network Long term that gives you a halo of products and services that actually outcompete any ICE. Apple Mac + Watch + iPad + iPhone + Mac gives you options for pretty much any computer interaction. But the ability to share identity, data, subscriptions, messaging, content, preferences across all devices and of course offering a good amount of free software around all of it has been major. I think at one point it was discovered that like 50% of Apple Mac users didn't use anything except for Apple Applications. For the iPhone or iOS in general Apple has basically purchased the top apps besides social media every other year. In fact they are actually buying a new company every week.

Alternative_Sky1380

ICE dealers no longer make money on car sales. They haven't for a long time. They're entirely reliant on theIr service division

Murghchanay

Eh, it's a growth stock obviously. What do you think will happen next year with two gigafctories opening that can build a car in one day (VW needs three for a car with worse margins). And that's only one component. Tesla is the biggest fast charging provider and the only one operating on all continents. Of course it's not based on current production or any legacy automaker that has their ICE assets as baggage. Ever looked up how much VW is investing into EVs and still they are so far behind. I can tell you because I drove a VW EV for the last 6 months. It's so bad compared to the Model 3.

Sir-Master-Chief

Yeah but other cars are petrol, and in my opinion if you’re buying an petrol car in 2022 when you buy cheap, mid range or very high electric are available with gov grants, then you’re a bit stupid. ICE is a dead business and has been for a while.

worklifebalance_FIRE

What challengers have noticeable expertise in BEV? Expertise in ICE does not mean expertise in BEV. If one was an expert in BEV and realized the margin value prop due over ICE, they would have actively made the transition themselves. Rather, we've seen examples of "challengers" actively shut down their BEV programs, only make compliance cars, or have massive recalls due to batteries catching on fire. No "challengers" have leaned into the BEV transition. Every single one has been dragged there kicking and screaming.

FrostReaver

The average family cannot afford a $45k model 3. The model X is $80k for the 2021 version. Repair costs on batteries are around $20k to replace and can have a 2-5 year battery life. Charging is inaccessible for anyone not living in a single family home. The vehicles can only be repaired at a Tesla dealership making it very inconvenient for anyone to get car repair done even on small issues. Long waits and high costs at the tesla repair shops dissuade their customers from buying another one of their vehicles. The cheapest BEV would probably be the chevy bolt at $31k, and just because something is the cheapest BEV doesn't mean it will be competitive with an ICE car. The usability and convenience of a gasoline car far outweighs the benefits an EV can have for the majority of consumers.

relevant_rhino

I could lay out some rookie number, but honestly t[his guy does a way better job at predictions then me.](https://youtu.be/i9eWmAkTTTw) Just a fun little detail, since this is an "old" video. He assumed 800k back then for 2021. Tesla delivered 930k. The bear case would be at around today's valuation with a 50 P/E ratio in 2030. Also note the profit margin is at 8%. In Q3 2021 Tesla was at 14% gross profit margin while still rising prices throughout the quarter. The second part of the video is the bull case that would bring us to about 4k / share valuation in 2030. I agree that the car market may has matured by then. However ICE manufacturers and their non existent batter plans make me think Tesla can get even higher market share. Besides that, next big thing is Energy. As i stated above, i come from the renewable energy side and i honestly believe we will be at something around 50% Solar energy (global) in 2032. Close to 100% around 2036-2040\*. \*because we will start to use much more electric energy since it will be so cheap so 100% is relative. I think Tesla will become a fully integrated energy provider. Grid scale batteries and smaller batteries, EV's, Solar all connected up to a virtual grid. Selling power to customers and selling power via the biggest charging network on the planet. They will basically be the gas station and your energy company. So you might want to take a step back and think again how mature teslas market is. Today it simply makes no sense to them to sell more battery packs because batteries put on wheels make way more profit. Look at this and count all the companies that are in the energy business: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_largest\_companies\_by\_revenue If you want the "super bull" take, take a look at that list: https://i.redd.it/3582gvaz1kb61.png

asdf_developer1992

here's the thing, a tech can be absolutely revolutionary and still not be a good investment. I don't really think there are many people left who doubt that Tesla started a revolution, and ICE cars might literally be not sold off lots anymore in a decade, which would have been an unthinkable proposition just several years ago, when BEVs were kind of just cool gadgets. but that doesn't necessarily make it a great investment. selling cars is a low margin business, a competitive business. it's possible to sit here in awe at what Tesla has accomplished, and still think it might not be the best investment that said, I am def still salty that I sold my shares too early

RugTumpington

Like it or not, that's the point of the legislation. Make ICE artificially unappealing to get consumers to switch.

Random_Guy_47

The tax has been around that percentage of the price for many years. It's not set like that to deliberatly price ICE off the road, although it may eventually have that effect, the government just treats motorists as cash cows.

TheLonlyCheezIt

That’s how you artificially phase out ICE vehicles.

thursdaysocks

Hilarious isn’t it? I’m surprised this doesn’t have 100 downvotes yet, people are so fucking set on buying $60,000 worth of inferior ICE, then complain every time gas goes up a penny.

Xfk46

No one is modeling Tesla having the entire EV market share… not even half the EV market share once ICE is phased out.

trpkchkn

Why are you not talking about Ford ? Also, plug in hybrids are a growing segment. Toyota can’t keep up with RAV4 Prime demand. I’m not bearish on TSLA , but I still think it’s pretty laughable to think not only that they will dominate EV forever, but also that EV is going to phase out ICE so quickly. People are buying millions of ICE cars right now. way more than EV. And again, manufacturers can’t even keep up with demand. TSLA valuation makes sense only if EV completely replaces ICE in the next year, AND they have almost the entire EV market. Basically TSLA valuation now implies they sell every car in the world. It’s crazy.

Hudson1180

When competition builds ev's they are killing their ICE business. They are shooting themselves in the foot. TSLA is just taking share from all as they will struggle to pay bills. Competition loses money on each EV, TSLA makes 30% margins

CenlaLowell

If your an illegal one ICE is waiting

biggstile1

Correct. None of these joker bears here have mentioned the US EV "competition" actual sales could actually be counted by a 1st grade student in about 30 seconds. They also don't mention Rivian prices out most people being able to afford them, and US legacy Osborne effect because they don't know what that is. It is no profit margin for legacy to survive and is only 2% of their sales or less, and cannibalizes their ICE sales.

EvaUnit343

Ok cmon, if TSLA manages to sell fucking 20M cars per year then sure. That’s like twice as much as all of Toyota’s annual sales currently. I agree ICE car sales will suffer, but fractionally more people will buy other EVs than TSLA, shrinking their growth market. I wanna be clear I like TSLA, and would absolutely buy it at the 500-700 levels, but these valuations make no sense man.

WarrenBuffettsBuffet

200M phones x $500 = $100B gross profit 20M EVs x $13500 = $270B in gross profit Also, the competition argument is stupid. We already know what happens when New EVs pop up in the market. They destroy ICE car sales. A new EV won't take sales from Tesla. They'll take gas car sales

falconne

As I've said many times, the challenge of doing this at a similar volume, with a similar gross margin to Tesla. And being able to keep pace at which Tesla increases production. I keep saying, "proof-of-concept" is easy. So is doing just enough to satisfy government regulations. Turning it from a niche gimmick to sustainable high profit margin business, not so much. And also ICE companies must keep shareholders placated; people who are used to seeing the profits come to them instead of being spent on R&D or massive capital expenditure.

sacked2

Volkswagon said its phasing out ICE vehicles. I think regardless of anything else you'll have growing competition going forward, probably even new companies around the globe as countries seem keen on subsidizing this instead of their mass transit.

Ecstatic-Promise-197

They are just cannibalising their own market shares with EV’s over ICE. Imagine running 2 factories with competing cars, that’s every legacy auto maker.

Ecstatic-Promise-197

The Ioniq 5 appeals to my age group (45) with its 8 bit lights and Lancia delta integrale design. If you don’t need range and charging convenience then I understand the choice but nothing comes close to Tesla. No-one has brought performance, range, charging & scalability to the market, the legacy auto are fighting for second between them as there ICE sales plummet.

FrostBerserk

Likely because most Democrats in Congress are really just Republicans. Which is why they act nearly in a very similar fashion. How's the wall coming along? Still being built. How's the "racist" tariffs on China? Still there. How's the wars? We started bombing on day 1 of new presidency. How about the kids in cages? Still there and worse than before. How about letting the caravan of people in? Kamala said go back home and don't come back, we will ship you back. ICE now works with MX authorities to ship people back to MX. Nepotism with entities/companies that support their political efforts? BBB included huge incentives for Unions and companies with Unions because they support Democrats. Looking for ways to punish minorities? Considering taxing people on mileage and the largest group of drivers are minorities and poor people. Forcing vaccine mandates on people when minorities have decades of rightful distrust for the medical and judicial system. The list goes on. So maybe that's why he's saying the Dems in power aren't really Dems? Just a guess.

toookoool

Clearly you just didn’t do research. Other car companies are selling mostly ICE cars. And ICE car market is shrinking. Look at the numbers

lib3rty47

Nah bro - you buy companies that make ICE cars and every company that doesnt use the internet.

imgonmakeuslose

Lol everyone know to mine the lithium for the battery alone, not to mention the disposal methods is worse than a ICE. Your just purposely trying to tirn a blind eye

yooboo2326

Your fallacy is assuming all legacy automakers will be able to survive the next decade competing against Tesla’s production scale and efficiency. How will these legacy automakers transition to EV, while forgoing their current cash cow which is already at a laughable margin, ICE quickly becoming obsolete. How will Ford and GMs of the world carry on their union and dealership structure that just eats away their margins? These guys are already carrying a massive debt, and it will only get worse as they try to scale into EV. EV and ICE are mutually exclusive imo, you can’t just apply the logic that the current market share of ICE will transition into EV and eat away Tesla’s shares. According to the perma bears, competition has been coming to Tesla for the past decade…GM literally delivered 26 EVs in the last quarter…lol

xbroodmetalx

And in 3 to 5 years Tesla will be making over 2m cars a year if not 3m and ford and gm will be bankrupt most likely because they eat their ICE sales when selling evs. They take sales from themselves. Not a competitor.

ALL_GRAVY_BABY

"powers that be" ? Certainly they make $ both ways, going up and going down.... But things can only go to 0, right? So, they eventually need it to go up. The stuff that should be getting crushed, is getting crushed. Solid companies that have earnings and make stuff will be fine. Like Freeport McMorRan.... Leading miner of copper. Do you know that an EV has 68 lbs of copper in it .... vs.13 lbs in an ICE vehicle? And between now and 2030, there will be 400 million EVs built. You can do the math. Cooper is new crude ;)

Kolada

What do you mean? Selling cars or selling EV? Because a lot of other car companies have had greater success selling cars. Selling EV is more a matter of investment imo. The bigger companies are selling a lot of ICE vehicles so hard shifting to EV at the detriment of their current line isn't a very good strategy. But they're slowly building it up. Ford is starting to sell non-eco-focused EVs. Audi is planning to go all EV but has some in production now. It's kind of like asking if Beyond Meat isn't just a food company, then why hasn't Tyson been able to do it? Tyson sells plant based products, but that's not their focus so it's kind of irrelevant. It's not that they can't, it's just that the market isn't there for it to be a main strategy yet.

TampaxLollipop

Oh good, they have 1 industry that likes them. Meanwhile fortune 500 companies like HD and KO dropped them after seeing how useless it was, and ICE has decided they can make their own system cheaper. Until PLTR starts opening up and showing what it can do with on-demand demos, there's not much to really be excited about it outside of a few buzzwords

thejumpingsheep2

This is inaccurate. You are only looking at the top line. Its like people have forgotten that earnings actually matter... eV's are significantly easier and cheaper to make and their margins are going to be high until the prices come down. But that wont happen till there is market wide scale. Till then, people will pay equal price for an eV (to ICE) especially for business and anyone who can install solar. The savings are real. So in other words, there is going to be massive bottom line growth. As for top line, that depends. Ford does indeed have a head start and that matters because it means they will set the market for trucks. This means that they are likely to be the market leader. Market leadership is a very big deal. Its the only reason Toyota gets so many sales and can maintain a great margin. Brand power basically. So thats the argument for top line growth. Right now, Ford is in control by virtue of being ahead of the curve in the legacy space. Obviously Tesla is way ahead on eV in general but they are significantly behind on scale and service which matters to enterprise clients. There is a good chance that Ford will actually take some market share from the other legacies. All they have to do is make the F150 reliable and then scale faster.

tms102

That's like saying why buy Amazon when Barnes and Noble has a lower PE? back in the day. Electric cars are the future. Ford aims to have only a production capacity of 1.5mil BEVs or something along those lines in 2025. While Tesla will have 4 mil/y production at least at that point. Ford might start having trouble selling its ICE vehicles beyond 2025.

falconne

> I'm not convinced the market for $60,000 model Y's could fill that supply. The luxury market for what is still a midsize vehicle is pretty small relative to the total market. For a US$150,000 car maybe that statement holds water. US$60K is not a hugely expensive price for a car. Even here in NZ where people have a fraction of the income of Americans, there are Teslas everywhere. Several of my friends have Model Ys. One colleague who bought one recently said "well the money's just sitting in my bank and inflation's only going to make it more expensive later". Heck I'd buy one if I didn't feel it's better to invest the money now and buy a better EV in the future. In America alone there are tens of millions of people who can easily afford a car like that. Maybe not as many in backwater states in the middle of the country, but certainly anyone with a decent professional job. Have you looked around you at the number of high end Mercedes, BMWs, Audis, etc just everywhere? > Unlikely anyone building an ice is doing so as "efficiently". Ev's are just more efficient to build. After 20 years of experience building EVs maybe, but they are certainly not building them that efficiently yet. As I said, there is 100 years of experience squeezing every bit of efficiency and margin possible out of ICE production. Compared to building a whole new kind of vehicle, in a whole new kind of factory, with people going "Well we've never done this before and hardly anyone else has either... let's just get an MVP out first, then figure out how to do it better later". Engineering and manufacturing doesn't work the way you think it works. Proof-of-concept is easy.

CorruptasF---Media

> Every EV maker can 10x their production rate right now and still not fill their backorders. I'm not convinced the market for $60,000 model Y's could fill that supply. The luxury market for what is still a midsize vehicle is pretty small. >Pretty unlikely that their EV project, that they had to be dragged kicking and screaming into doing, a low volume product in a "proof-of-concept" factory, is somehow being built more efficiently than their ICE cars with 100 years of economies of scale. Unlikely anyone building an ice is doing so as "efficiently". Ev's are just more efficient to build. And dealerships are known for adding hefty "market adjustments" to the mach E. 5 - 15 K. So it is true that Tesla's lack of dealerships is a big deal.

softwareTrader

its time for some Tesla puts. Wait until people realize their "high growth" stock is priced as if they sell more ICE combined in Electric and that they won't even get to 10% of the market share going into 2023 and 2024.

jawnlerdoe

I’m in for 500 shares at 3.38. Mazda has always been a fledgling car company. Their transition to electric is behind competition and they have much smaller sales than their main competitors. They are however transitioning to mid-luxury branding and have some interesting ICE technologies in the pipeline, which is the basis for my conviction investing in them as a car guy. I think they will do alright on a 5 year time table but don’t expect a home run imo

lotus_bubo

Liquidity is the opposite of speculation. They have real cash sitting in their laps. TSLA is a fluke and definitely a case of speculation. Auto investors are trying to price in what the 2030 industry looks like, because thats when a shitload of countries and states ban ICE sales.

falconne

> While I agree Tesla is still losing market share in the EV space. Which means competitors are gaining on volume. The demand for EVs outstrips the total supply by orders of magnitude. "EV Market share" is not a metric that matters for any car company right now. Every EV maker can 10x their production rate right now and still not fill their backorders. > Same with infrastructure, Tesla was the only way to travel cross country at all a few years ago, EV wise. Now the issue is just some rival chargers not being quite as reliable yet. You keep saying infrastructure is easy. I keep saying it's much harder than you think. > Margin, idk, mach E is apparently already profitable. It's hard to say Tesla's margin gains are widening when a few years ago no one else could make a profitable EV, including them. Now, multiple manufacturers can. Tesla has a gross margin of 30% for the whole company. We don't know what the Mach-E margin is, just that the CEO says it's profitable. If it was comparable he'd have given a number. Chances are they are using bookkeeping magic to make to sound profitable. Ford's gross margin is 11%. They've been making cars for 100 years and this is what they can manage in their core competency. Pretty unlikely that their EV project, that they had to be dragged kicking and screaming into doing, a low volume product in a "proof-of-concept" factory, is somehow being built more efficiently than their ICE cars with 100 years of economies of scale. > On ai, again we are talking city streets right now. Is that as big of an advantage as they had 2 or 3 years ago. Doubtful. You severely underestimate how much work is required by the traditional car companies to make an AI that can handle city driving.

Ok-Ingenuity2377

> We will have ICE vehicles around for 30+ years yet. A non-zero amount? Sure. Enough demand to keep even one major auto company in business? You're dreaming. A few boutique ICE makers may survive, but nobody is going to be building ICE at scale in 10 years.

Ok-Ingenuity2377

> How does ICE vehicle production drag them down? Because those ICE sales are going away. The most analysts are expecting Ford to rapidly grow their EV sales, but those sales are going to come at the cost of ICE sales. So Ford looks more like a "survivor" than a growth company. When you model it out, their profits in 10 years will be probably about the same as today. Those profits will just come from EV sales instead of ICE sales. Look, **I think Ford is one of the few companies that's going to successfully transition to EVs,** but I'm wary of F as an investment, *right now*. Any kind of asset necessary for ICE but not EV production is going to have to be written off at scrap value, instead of depreciated over several years. So Ford's Statement of Cash Flows is going to look like shit for a couple years while they tool up for EV production (they currently have production capacity for ~20k EVs vs. Tesla's 1,000k). At the same time, their Balance Sheet is going to look like shit in YoY and QoQ comps for a couple years as they write down the ICE production assets. Further, you have to remember that legacy auto has union pension obligations. Anyone who built a Ford engine in the last 20 years is owed a pension.

IAmInTheBasement

>A key challenge for Nio would be that Americans are buying more hybrid vehicles than electric ones. Nuh doy. Because you can't buy what isn't being made. The demand is there but no one but Tesla can come anywhere close to meeting it. Why do you think that the Cybertruck has such a long backlog? That for the Ford Lightning sold out 3 years worth of production in months and is seeing \~30k markup at the dealers? That Ford is selling more MachE's than they are ICE Mustangs? The demand for good, long range (vs 80mi Leaf), muscular EVs is here and now. But only Tesla has the manufacturing muscle to deliver. And just WAIT for Texas to come online.

IAmInTheBasement

>decides to buy an EV As opposed to buying ICE. Therefor there is choice, there is competition. EV's TAM is THE vehicle market. Not some small %.

devereaux

* Awful balance sheet, shitty cost of capital. * Probably paying more on their 9% junk bonds each year than they make in net EV earnings. * Mediocre products and limited product line. * Fairly poor safety record. * Loyal buyers for ICE F-150s keep them afloat. Not sure any of their loyal ICE buyers will stick with them when Ford abandons them. * $100 fully refundable reservations bare not real orders. Have fun though with your temporary EV bubble valuation though.

trail34

We will have ICE vehicles around for 30+ years yet. A natural disaster or hack that takes out power to a section of the country for a week or more will reveal that we need vehicles that can run on basic fossil fuels. There are parts of the world that still don’t have reliable electricity service 24 hours a day. To think that EVs in their current state will dominate the market can only come from a place of privilege. EVs are literally and figuratively out of range for most densely urban or remotely rural users. It’s a suburban status symbol - at least for now.

thenwhat

When an industry is disrupted and all your production equipment, technology and knowhoe is tied up in the disrupted industry, what do you think happens? Do you think it's cheap to have to dump basically what your entire existence is built upon? You are assuming that they are going to be able to produce and sell enough EVs to make up for ICE losses. Good luck with that. Tesla has been preparing for this for more than a decade. Everyone else is struggling to get things like batteries. So even if they wanted to go all in on EVs, they couldn't. And the fact is, EVs are taking over. Fewer and fewer people will consider an ICE vehicle.

JustMeHere8431

Journalists don’t get it. EVs don’t compete against EVs, they compete against ICE. EVS Only account for a very small % of the motor industry. So all the EV companies are stealing market from ICE. Not each other

trail34

How does ICE vehicle production drag them down? Do you think the country will suddenly have the appetite and money to all run out and buy an EV? Not likely. What we’re seeing now is early adopters jumping in. Most people have no interest in an EV. Heck, I’d love one but I don’t have a garage or convenient place to put a charger. The F150 is the best selling and most profitable vehicle. They already phased out their ICE models that do not sell well and their transition to EV is going remarkably well considering the Mach E is second only to the Model 3 and reservations for the Lightning truck are overwhelming.

moDz_dun_care

Tech companies are going fold and stop innovating. Everyone is going just jump into their ICE cars drive around in circles and put all their money into banking accounts cause of a few interest rate hikes from historical lows.

iqisoverrated

Agreed, they need to go for EVs to survive. But it's not like Ford, GM, VW et al. are growing (i.e. an increasing stock valuation due to some EV sales makes no sense). They are shrinking their business because TOTAL sales numbers aren't growing (they are just replacing ICE sales with EV sales and handing off some market share to new 'pure' EV companies like BYD, Nio and Tesla) ... and the margins of what they are selling are shrinking becuase EVs aren't as profitable for them.

thenwhat

Ford is Nokia and Apple is Tesla. How smart is it to invest in legacy companies in a disrupted industry? For has a 10th of Tesla's market cap because they aren't even close to taking part in the EV race. They also have a huge problem in that they have ICE vehicle production which will drag them down as they have to write it off and take huge losses.

golongandprosper

They have a lot of debt but They have 30billion in cash. CASH. Building battery factories, EVs for commercial guys, their ICE stuff is still in demand. They are moving away from offshore dependence. They’ll have a lot of support

TrailsideDairy

You mention that like they aren’t aware… they are making the smart move of profiting from both ICE and EV sales while making the transition.

marzipan07

You have to also credit Al Gore for pushing carbon offsets, without which Tesla would have gone under long ago. The reason the ICE players will be a threat to Tesla is because they already have the knowhow and capabilities of mass-production and mass-delivery, which are massive barriers to entry that Tesla barely survived and which new players are facing. Old companies move slowly though.

Olorin_1990

But if EV replaces ICE and they don’t have them, they are totally screwed. The EVs will be profitable after a few years, and it’s that or die.

OcclusalEmbrasure

Never said it couldn't. But what you're saying can be interchangle with any growth company, nothing new. Regardless, I was addressing the comment that they only had 2% of TAM of all EV/ICE. Doesn't matter though, my conviction says they will grow in market cap and simultaneously compress PE. If you don't, that's fine. I'm still holding my shares. Take into account their market cap grew 30% and had a 70% drop in PE. You can't do that without impressive improvements in operating margins and increased sales. They haven't even fully scaled yet.

iqisoverrated

Not to mention that every EV truck they sell is one less ICE truck they sell. People are not magically buying more trucks all of a sudden. All legacy auto is doing with their EVs is eating into their own business. They're not increasing their total sales (much less their own margins).

kryptonyk

I mean yeah, if by “got there first” you mean “disrupted an entire industry by making a product that every major player said was impossible” then yeah. And why do people always think other EVs only compete with Tesla? Ford making EVs is gunna cannibalize their own ICE sales too. GL to legacy lol

josh198989

Yeah considering already made a fortune on it, and then bought back in low - feel fairly safe. Good luck burning the planet down. There is a reason ICE engines will be extinct by 2030.

professorpuddle

Schwab and robinhood are brokerages, not exchanges. ICE and CBOE are exchanges.

Flaxinator

EVs have much lower emissions than ICE vehicles even after taking into account all imbedded emissions as long as you don't live somewhere that generates most of it's electricity from coal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51977625

Cantgetfooledagain1

99% of these EV startups will go bankrupt, just like ICE car companies 200 years ago

raviman8

But EV require less maintenance than an ICE car... So VW, F, GM, etc, will have to accept a massive write off on real estate and assets as service centers will be a thing of the past. Not to mention the massive layoffs. I would argue Tesla is well ahead of VW and others.

fanaticus13

Panasonic is the battery supplier for Tesla. If you Google “top battery development companies” you will see Panasonic 3rd in the top. The battery industry is and will indeed developing on its own. But you can’t ignore the impact the global $3.8tr. automobile Industry will /is having on battery development/production. What percentage of automobile producers right now are investing in batteries? We shouldn’t even be having this discussion right now. Well cool, you like ICE cars, but there are cars beside the ones you’re using to commute. We could cut a big part of our emission by replacing ICE in sectors like agriculture or Dairy. And maybe in 10 years, new drivers will prefer EV, should we just stop everything because a dude on Reddit prefers his Oldtimer? If EVs which currently run on dirty energy? are opening the way to a future without ICE cars and less emissions, pollution caused by them is nullified on a larger time scale.

Markuu6

I don’t understand the ICE hate for EV’s. Most ICE’s don’t last more than 10-15 years and would have gone through several battery replacements themselves in that time. Those batteries end up in landfills, whereas Tesla batteries can end up in solar farms. 🤷‍♂️

tms102

Have you taken into account all the dealers and repair shops and their electricity sucking activities that exist because of ICE cars? BEVs need less repairs and maintenance so less of these would need to exist.