ICE

ChiefHippoTwit

Anyone that thinks climate change is a hoax, probably isn't very educated, believes we didn't land on the moon and thinks the Earth is flat. ICE vehicle industry is a dead industry walking. Big Oil will try as long as they can to disseminate disinformation and hold onto their legacy profits. Don't buy their hype machine. Like a cornered animal they are going to fight tooth and nail. Ignore it.

SuddenlySilva

Here's why I'm bullish on Tesla- EVs are better cars all around and Tesla is the reason we know that. Everybody with a 20 mile commute and a home where they can install a charger would be better off if they bought one tomorrow. BYD is the only real competition. The US legacy carmakers are not really trying, they are sticking their toe in the water and using EVs to leverage CAFE standards. EVs are terrible for their business model of fleecing customers in the service department. If Biden wins the in 2024, EV demand and incentives will increase dramatically. We probably won't hit the 2035 goals but the world will be a different place in 10 years. The legacy carmakers will have a hard time making money on EVs for a few more years. Every EV Tesla sells is an EV tesla sells- with all the margin. Every EV Ford sells is an ICE car they didn't sell so as EV penetration spread Teslas revenue will increase faster even if Elon is a fascist. The media says the stock rose because of the promise of cheap Teslas. But the financial press doesn't know shit about anything. I think it went up because investors believe what I believe about the future and were relieved that Elon had something positive to say.

wearahat03

There are some things you have to know about investing. If the EV market is going down, that's good for Tesla's valuation. To elaborate: Ford Model E (Ford EV segment) - Revenue is down 84% and deliveries down 20%. EBIT -1.3B Tesla revenue down 13%, deliveries down 10% and EBITDA 3.4B Why does this matter? Because it suggests that it's not Tesla's problem, but an industry problem. If people think EVs are eventually going to gain share over the longer term despite short-term weakness, as regulations force it or charging infrastructure improves, then Tesla stands the benefit in the long run. Before 2024, people thought legacy automakers had 'terminal values' of $0. In investing, stocks are valued based on future cash flows. The terminal value is what you expect the company to deliver in perpetuity. It accounts for a lot of the stock value. Cash flows might be 1,1.2, 1.4, 1.8 then 2 for perpetuity. At 10% discount, the terminal value figure is 20 assuming no growth. Legacy automakers wouldn't get the $20 terminal value figure, which might make up 70% of the stock price. So you would see legacy automakers bringing in 10B in profit yearly but be valued at 50B. They expect those profits to be paid, then once ICE cars have a market share of 0%, there's nothing left. Since legacy automakers have tons of debt, there wouldn't even be anything left over after selling all their assets. But in 2024 the story changed. Legacy automakers had more years left in them, and more breathing room to transition to EVs. The original story is still believed but expected date of the demise of ICE cars has been pushed back another half decade. That's why legacy automakers have been mega outperformers over the past year. Toyota has been selling record hybrids. The long-term vision of any stock should not be derived from a quarter, a season or year. It might not be as obvious as Micron, which delivers 2B profit, then 6B, then 9B then 6B loss. Every industry has their own risks and cycles. World events like covid, war, inflation etc. affect each industry differently. While it's not necessary to follow world events, competitors and cycles, it is important to understand as context before judging a stock. There are different tiers of investing. Bottom tier. Seeing Meta results down. Meta = failure. Next tier. Knowing ad spending is weak everywhere, so Meta isn't that bad. Next tier. Knowing ad spending will rebound in future, so don't project based on bottom of the cycle. Next tier. Considering buying before ad spending rebounds when the stock price is lower. Next tier. Knowing that everyone else already knows it's going to rebound, so they already priced in the rebound. Next tier. Finding errors about what people think they know about the future that they have priced in, or the less often considered factors that aren't priced in. Next tier. Knowing you have limited time and effort to exert, things that aren't priced in cannot be priced in as they are unexpected, so after 'optimizing probability' the best action after setting up your portfolio is to do nothing 99% of the time. Protecting your portfolio against yourself, acknowledging you make errors and can't know about the future better than the market 99% of the time.

tropicalia84

Just wait till PCE comes in ICE cold and SPY at 520 tomorrow

chandelog

It's a temporary downturn owning to macroeconomic conditions. In Norway, for example, 90% of new vehicle purchases are already EVs. Such trends that start in the richest of countries eventually expand elsewhere. A recent survey also showed 85% of EV owners report they won't go back to ICE again. Future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed.

ScrubyMcWonderPubs

EVs fucked Hertz over and I’m interested to see how this would affect their earnings. They probably lost a sizable clientele to their competitors because nobody wants to rent EVs. They’re also making their managers use the EV cars (managers get to use fleet cars) to free up ICE inventory.

GuyfromMarylandHere

AYYO DONNY, I TOOK A DUMP INTO AN ICE CREAM CONE AND SMEARED IT ON THE WALL. HOW'S YOU LIKE THEM APPLES LITTLE DON???? For real though, it's a big game, a joke, not real. Inverse WSB and inverse Kramer, you're good.

BertAnsink

Thought this was already a long known fact? EVs are handy when you can charge them at home but for the rental market, people tend to rent cars in places where they have no such possibility or they need to drive long distance and using a ICE powered vehicle is simply easier to use.

Apart-Bad-5446

Not much. EV's are more susceptible to declined demand especially in downturn economies which is why EV companies in China all suffered, some worse than Tesla. Ford and GM are cutting back on EV production for this same reason. There's still a large % of Americans who are relecutant to go EV's. Add in financial concerns and EV's become secondary to ICE.

Brus83

And French, and Hungarian, and... car manufacture is all over Europe now, went to various places looking for cheaper labour, so now everyone's got an interest in keeping it alive. My last car is French but actually made in Slovakia, for instance. Some complain about the import taxes on Chinese EVs, but a lot of people are also pretty much fed up with China, the whole idea of offshoring industry has gutted some EU industries and that didn't quite lead to a better standard of living for actual people. People in general don't want a re-run of that. Regarding affordable cars, you know how Model 2 is supposed to bring us a 25K Euro EV which isn't hobbled like some of the current ones on the market? Yeah, last month Citroen released their 25K Euro EV, hatchback with a 44kWh LFP battery and 300km range. Fiat is planning to release something similar this year, VW's 25K ID.2 car is set to be out next year. Infrastructure is going to be the bigger problem for the "no new ICE by 2035" plan than cars, imo.

Spardasquad2020

For now. More and more people in europe complain that all limitations on import from china are done to save failing germany manufacturers. No way that they can do their no ICE by 20xx without cheap chineese BYD cars

Hour-Preference4387

As someone balls deep in Siemens and Alstom stocks, I was excited for this and CAHSR but seems they are only gonna order like 6 trainsets each (For comparison, Deutsche Bahn is looking to order 95 trainsets for it's next-gen ICE5 order). As a transit enthusiast, I am still excited for this. If this and CAHSR are successful, would likely mean more passenger rail projects in the US in the future.

BlooregardQKazoo

> I think many EV owners might go back to ICE. I can just speak for myself, but I intend to never go back. The EV experience is better in every way other than on long trips, and I take few long trips. Granted that could change if your prediction of battery failures comes true, but I don't see any reason to expect that EV batteries won't last 15+ years. They'll degrade but late in their life I'll just use them as a commuter car.

BaxBaxPop

LOL First of all, the Mercedes that are level 3 are all >$100k. Secondly, Tesla's start at $30k with IRA credits now. And they're also the least expensive cars to maintain over the first 10 years of ownership. Add gas savings and they're cheaper than most ICE cars.

Atriev

Just gives more volatility so I can find better prices to buy. Otherwise this doesn’t affect any fundamentals of companies except $ICE and other similar businesses.

therealjadebronco

Interactive brokers has C2 digital options capability. Globalization has been the goal of the ICE for a decade. It's no different than FX markets.

escme2

they made gigafactories around the world. You think all those investments would make the stock go down? too much money at stake for the stock to go down too far. EV are taking over eventually. ICE engines will be gone, especially in cities.

_hiddenscout

Legacy is doing well though. $GM beat and raised today. I think the issue with TSLA is a few things, not really rates as much. One, is they banked on a lot of growth in China. However, basically BYD is eating their lunch. The problem is that for a lot of consumers, EV's are going to be a race to the bottom in most cases. Another issue is with Elon himself. I mean I've seen people put bumper stickers on their car around buying it before Elon went crazy. In the auto space, ICE and Hybrid are doing really well. There are some reasons for that, but a big one is still infrastructure. We haven't built enough chargers. Then there is still the question around used pricing. Like when buying a car, you know your purchase will depreciate in value. However, when new prices keep getting cut, that means that used will get cut as well. I think right now, if you bought a TSLA last year, it's now down 30% in terms of value of your car. That's pretty bad.

RightMindset2

I guess not as bad as people were expecting. It was rather oversold. I think it's clear that Tesla is also adjusting their strategy to undercut prices and offer more affordable EVs. If they are able to pull this off then I think that's a good thing for the companies future. One of the biggest factors for why people choose a ICE vs an EV is price. You make that price low enough then more people will choose the EV regardless of their opinion of the CEO or any other cons currently affecting TVs like infrastructure, charging time, range etc.

ChicoTallahassee

In the EU I assume it's a good investment since regulations have started banning certain combustion engines in metropolitan areas. The requirement now are the infamous Euro norms. Euro 6 is the requirement as of now in many places. In the near future these cities and metropole location will go over to banning ICE (internal combustion engines) totally. This could boost the sales in EVs. Unless an other alternative is found. Thus I am keeping my eyes open for sudden hydrogen or Ethanol solutions to come on the market en masse.

ShadowLiberal

I just sold out of the last of my TSLA shares yesterday for a very nice profit, so I have some definite thoughts on this. **Short Term** - the industry is likely to continue to take hits. Most of the EV makers can't do it at a profit. Rivian and Lucid for example are burning an absurd amount of money on every vehicle they build. And the ones who are profitable (Tesla) have valuation concerns, and don't really have anything in the short term (i.e. next 12 or so months) that can really boost the stock price all that meaningfully IMO. **Long Term** - I think 3 to 5 years out there's a lot of bright spots for Tesla and the EV companies that can survive and still make EV's at a profit. Among the future catalysts that won't help them now, but will in a few years. * A lot of legacy automakers are really screwing themselves over long term by cutting back on their EV investments in favor of short term profits. By the time consumers start to shift en-masse towards EV's it's going to be too late for them to shift their production lineup over to EV's, they need to start doing this years in advance, when ICE vehicles can still fund the transition. * Battery prices are getting very close to the point where automakers are going to be able to make cheaper EV's with 200+ mile ranges for less than the cost of cheaper non-Luxury ICE vehicles, while still making a profit. It's going to take a bit of time for such vehicles to be produced once we hit that position, but once we do any EV makers that can make these vehicles is probably going to see a huge surge in demand. * I think it's inevitable that we're going to start to see some of the traditional automakers either need to be bailed out, or go bankrupt some 5 or so years out. Some of them like Nissan are already in a such an awful financial state that they have a junk credit rating. And a number of them are blatantly not taking EV's seriously at all, so they'll never be able to switch over their production to quality EV's fast enough. * China IMO could become a much bigger threat to international automobile sales, given the very cheap EV models they're already able to produce. And as battery costs continue to come down overtime they'll be able to make them even cheaper.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

I'm not joking. Annualized auto sales are rolling over somewhat on the 5 yr, but folks are buying high ticket price gas & hybrids at normal rates. this is about the adoption cycle imo. TSLA & other providers already acquired most customers who want a full EV at this time. that's why hybrid sales are flying, and re: ICE, ford / gm are doing well of late

HDBlackHippo

I'm in the automotive industry, sales in particular. We have 43 EV's in inventory right now all with $10,000+ discounts and can't get anyone in the door on them. Same goes for all brands in my group. Our Mercedes store has EQS' discounted almost $30k off MSRP. On the flip side we can't keep ICE or Hybrids in stock and all are selling for sticker.

arizonamoonshine

Oh I posted one this AM. I think we close above $13 today but not sure if we’ll hit the $13.20 mark It actually hit $3.17 this morning in premarket so that might be a PT for close. There’s two possible small gap fills but the first one technically got filled premarket then a small bit of profit taking Tesla earnings will be interesting b/c I see a positive for Ford if it goes up OR down. Bad TSLA earnings could signal a move to Hybrids or ICE which Ford is doing very well on.But Ford’s EV growth is better than TSLA right now so a TSLA beat could also help. https://preview.redd.it/m4s30ha3y9wc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dcb782de0a79ae093595d4e0061c55bade72c306 Would be nice to settle into 13.10 or higher for close but we’ll see. But still way bullish on this especially since GM did well!

openthespread

They don’t really make any money at 20k those cars have 800 of profit in each unit so even just the logistics would kill it without raising the price. Realistically the BYD EV cars are a warren Buffett illusion. The whole range including ICE and hybrid outsold Tsla last Q but in terms of pure EV they fell significantly under Tsla even domestically.

TheRealJYellen

My understanding is that legacy EVs have much lower margins. I don't really know if it's just Tesla with good margins or other startups too. To your point about repairability, I think that's the direction that engineering (or overengineering) is heading. Large complex assemblies that allow for better optimization. Thankfully EVs have less moving parts and lower time-average repair costs than ICE, so it should offset the part complexity. Agreed on the comparison to blown engines. We look past the catastrophic failures in ICE because we're used to them, not because they don't exist.

gnocchicotti

That argument holds for ICE cars because they are goddam miracles of engineering and some of them for for 400k miles. The manufacturing precision and quality needed for the entire drivetrain is just insane and we take it for granted today. Chinese OEMs could catch up in ICE production but it's too late in the game to justify further investment. The technical barrier for entry into EV manufacturing is trivial in comparison. Which is why Tesla and all these other brands sprang up. EV quality is mostly going to be determined by the battery systems themselves. And one could argue China is already competitive if not leading there.

namechecksout35

Not all EV margins are crazy high or even good. Take the Ford F150 lightning XLT ER with incentives for example. Tesla has forsaken repairability and traditional supply chains in favor of large assemblies and vertical integration. For that reason they have a good initial purchase price and retain high margins. It is likely in 5-10 years other companies will continue to follow these trends. Battery failures as an EV problem is totally overblown afaik and not much different than other power train failures. It's just widely publicized because it gets clicks. No one cares when Joe Blows 10r80 fails in his F150 just outside of warranty or when Tommy Toodles 6.2L V8 throws rod bearings on his Escalade for the 4th time. I believe all new EVs in the US get a 10 year 100k mile battery warranty which covers 70% capacity. Modern packs with cooling and BMS systems are probably more likely to pass 250k miles than the majority of ICE power trains sold today.

Rand-Seagull96734

In the steady state 10 years from now, EV makers would largely be good automakers with low margins, just like the ICE world. The question is whether some of these EV makers, and others, would have created some well adopted "platforms" for others. The Chinese (CATL, BYD) have a huge lead on LFP battery packs, Tesla has a huge jump on the charging network, who will have a differentiated brand in mid and high tiers (not clear yet, Rivian has ingredients), driver assist tech (not clear, robotaxis is hyped but in limited cases, Waymo and Tesla have a chance), etc. The larger renewables market should be played the same way for growth opportunities: not the utilities or installers, but platform makers: solar modules like Solaredge, micro inverter makers like Enphase, wind tech like GE Vernova, etc.

Siphilius

Yes. There’s widespread pushback and for good reason. Build quality, range, and the agenda around pushing them via legislation are the main reasons for people continuing to choose an ICE.

gnocchicotti

Yeah cuz the Bolt is discontinued because GM was losing a massive amount of cash on every sale. No word on the upcoming model but probably will be a loss leader as well. TSLA is the only US brand where the sale price is sustainable. All else being equal, Chinese brands will have the lowest cost. Some of the cheapest ICE models in the US are China manufactured already, more efficient to just cut out the middle man. Tariffs are the main thing stopping it from happening.

TheRealJYellen

Back to ICE, I don't know. But I think that all of the people who want one have one, and the government incentives pushed that. From what I know of Tesla's margins, EV margins seem to be crazy high, indicating that they're overpriced and I think the used market (with far fewer incentives) will show that. I'm unsure yet if battery aging is overblown as an issue or if it's actually going to cause problems. Personally I see utility in a used EV that may only get half the range, it is still useful for in town and as a commuter car.

african_cheetah

Good point. EVs tend to be a lot heavier than ICE cars, also EVs are more expensive than the average middle-class like Toyota / Honda SUVs. I'm not against EVs - I love them, nor am I against ICE cars. Just saying that the cost of ownership is a huge deciding factor on car purchase. Range anxiety is also a thing. I know many Tesla owners. Not statistically significant but zero of them have Tesla as their only car. They have an ICE car for long trips. In contrast, know many households with only one ICE car.

Speedybob69

I wouldn't say that EVs will have fewer catastrophic events. The ICE has come a long way from where e started and I'd say EVs will follow the same path in regards to improving themselves. Batteries are more temperamental than most imagine. All that extra power is breaking the motor mounts on the model S. The extra weight is reducing tire life. And electronics don't last forever especially when they shake and vibrate rolling down the road. The labor and parts costs for repairs are much much much higher than a conventional auto.

glacierre2

This easter there was a big reckoning on the practicality of an EV for tourist trips. The number of cars turned out to be significantly more than the available charging points on the way for popular long trips (the case I know best is Spain). Loads of people queued for hours and 5-6 h trips took the whole day. I can bet a few will be hiring an ICE for their next holiday.

jreddish

This is not in-depth research or analysis, but my gut feel is that everyone who wanted an EV got one (and probably paid more than the going rate for one). Right now, there just isn't demand for more. We are nearing a burst of battery failures (they only last so long) and people realizing that the used market is shit (for that reason, and because of price cuts, and because of battery life issues). If those problems are not resolved, I think many EV owners might go back to ICE. All of that makes me wonder where growth is coming.

MistSecurity

Ya, that's basically the position I'm in right now. Trying to decide if I want to get a cheaper ICE vehicle, pay more for another EV, or just deal with my feelings and get a Tesla. Still need to look into used Bolt EUVs, but haven't spent the time researching what years BlueCruise is available on. I'm kind of holding out for the updated Bolt, but I'm not sure if my current vehicle can wait that long. I need to look into if you can claim the used vehicle credit and the new vehicle credit in a short time span, or if you're subject to the lockout period on both if you take one. My ideal would be pick up a used EV with the tax credit, then trade that in for a new Bolt EUV when they come out, also getting the tax credit. Going to look into that today, but my gut tells me you're subject to the lockout if you take either.

VariationAgreeable29

Great quarter, great numbers and guidance. The ICE portfolio is printing hard, and EV costs will come down with scale. Mary Barra seems to have threaded the needle really well.

crazyeyezkillab

It’s still increasing, I’m seriously not seeing what you’re talking about, it went from 6.5% to 7.8% in a year. Thats a lot, again, for high interest rates for cars that are $20k more than their ICE alternatives. People are choosing the car type that is much more expensive during the worst time to borrow money in decades. Of course I’m going long on EVs…want to check in here in five years? Should be a good measure.

MelancholyKoko

Not in the US, but it's going to take over locations where oil is not subsidized. We are already seeing it in South East Asia with massive takeover of 2/3 wheel vehicles. They need to import every drop of oil so it makes sense for the government to ensure ICE goes away for energy security.

Familiar-Suspect

Part of that is when ford or any other big company has slowing ev sales the can shift that labor to ICE Elon needs EVs to win for Tesla to win. Ford has trucks

Pathogenesls

Doesn't seem to be yet, ICE manufacturers have been reporting strong numbers.

new22003

I am not American and I live in the EU. I see evidence of the tarnishing of the brand. Things like Tesla owners at work complaining and others asking if musk's politics and outbursts have made them rethink their ownership. I have heard several people who are in the market say they won't shop the brand. The narrative has gone from "cool, you have a Tesla" to "a Tesla huh, what do you think of musk?" This is compounded with the wide availability of better made cars with more features and comfort. The remaining big plus is the Supercharger network, but is that enough? For reference electric cars are popular where I live because there is no road tax on them (due to end soon) and charging is available and relatively affordable compared to our ICE cars. Petrol cars often cost €1000 euros per year in road tax (diesel cars are double that) and fuel costs are around €2 per liter ($8.10-8.15 per U.S. gallon)

alwayslookingout

You do realize the government spends money on a lot of things that don’t benefit you or me? Why do we subsidize school lunches? I don’t have kids! Why do we subsidize EV? I drive an ICE! Why do we help foreign countries? I live in ‘Murica!

crazyeyezkillab

Eh, I know a lot of people that want an EV but are just waiting for rates to drop. EVs bring two things that ICE owners just don’t understand until they actually own one (or know someone close that does): 1. They are insanely quick. A model Y long range beats a 2000 Lamborghini Diablo in 0-60. That’s not even the performance model. 2. You have a gas station in your driveway that pumps $1.50 gas, and you wake up with a full tank every day. Any other ice car seems slow and inconvenient, and with incentives it’s a no brainer. Which is why the model y was the number one car sold on earth last year. Interest rates killed it, but they’ll be back in a big way once they drop.

veilwalker

Range and time to charge are problems that will be solved. When they are then there is little reason to have an ICE vehicle.

notLOL

BMW + Tesla would be interesting. With the cost of BMW maintenance, gutting all the ICE components would have made it a considerable upgrade in value. I know BMW has electrified vehicles but super charge network would and pay per feature in the luxury car crowd would be profitable  Bought twitter at the peak of Tesla share price lol. What a way to lose

JoshL3253

Cheaper EVs might tip the scale for buyers on the fence, but it won’t solve the anxiety issues for die-hard ICE people. Hybrids are all the rage nowadays. Toyota dealers are still asking over MSRPs for their RAV4 hybrids.

outworlder

That's reasonable. Although I have to wonder how many of those owners are new to EVs in general. A lot of the fascination people have with Teslas is not even related to them, it's due to the fact that they used to drive ICE and now switched to EVs.

NaturalCan

I have a Hyundai (ICE) and am extremely happy with it. We were extremely close to leasing a KIA EV6, but had a terrible experience with the dealer. Ended up in a completely different vehicle.

Papercoffeetable

In european countries Tesla Model Y is the best sold EV by a very big margin year over year. The competitors aren’t even close except on specific months when a new EV is launched before people realise how behind they still are and the sales plummet (Jaguar I-Pace, Polestar 2, Mercedes Benz EQC, ORA, MG, VW ID3, Audi E-tron, etc.) so i think there is benefit for Tesla to still keep on going. Also the german made Model Y has very little complaints on build quality, recent repair statistics also show repairs cost the same on average than equivalent ICE cars. Reliability and quality seems to mainly be a problem on the Model S and X, which very few buy, at least in the EU, if anything Tesla should stop building the Cybertruck, S, and X, and just keep improving the Y and 3 and build cheaper cars. Right now in the EU the Model Y and 3 is a bargain in most of Europe, the price/performance/equipment is tremendously better than the competitors.

ball0fsnow

As in the have large businesses built around low margin ICE cars. Low margin e cars are just an expansion of the same. Tesla it will be outright degradation as they lower prices

briefadventure411

A simpler answer is that there are more EVs available from other manufacturers and these may fit a customer's needs and budget better. Also, there are still plenty ICE vehicles around and some people may prefer those.

neepster44

“Less maintenance?” EVs are literally almost zero maintenance. No ICE even comes close.

indieaz

There is a Tesla I see around my house with the license plate "TY MUSK". There was a time (before the whole boy scout stuck in cave incident) where democrats viewed Musk positively. (Or at least less negatively than most Billionaires). He was pro UBI and vocal about EVs being best for the planet over ICE. I absolutely think his public persona has had an impact on sales in both directions the past decade.

dark_bravery

i like my ICE cars, but i bought $40k of TSLA stock just because of him. i want to give him my money. don't know the fundamentals of $TSLA, never joined an investor call, don't care. Elon is one of the greatest minds of our time. people not liking him personally is an indicator of those people, not of him. we have electric and self driving cars everywhere, we have rocketships that can land themselves. the world is better with him than without. if anything, we need 1000 more elons. /unpopularopinion

Stup1dMan3000

With over 72 days of inventory for cars, with 6 brands having over 110 days inventory the ICE vehicles are doing well either, it almost like that with the average price of a new car exceeding the average annual salary is hard. Ford introduced the lightening truck at $40k, within 2 years it was over $60k. Interest rates have a major impact on cars and BTW the worst use of money is a car

nemesis24k

While it's a good firm, it's going to be very hard to generate alpha on stocks like these. They are B2B in a very crowded space and the only path to outperformance is to take market share from other extremely strong firms -SPGi, ICE, LSE etc. The TAM is tied to underlying shift to passive and ESG and general equity markets which are probably saturated/ slower growth now that fixed income is a viable alternative. Their analytics/ software division does not have the kind of growth to sustain. This is probably high risk stock due to the enhanced valuation.

fatbunyip

It's double bad news because most ICE makers are also making EVs so losing on both counts. 

underneonloneliness

Isn't cheaper EV's bad news for companies who still make ICE vehicles...?

reggiestered

Sorry I meant what do *you* buy. Of that group: Polestar - Chinese Volvo - Chinese Hyundai has done a great job with shooting the gap between quality and affordability imo. I have been considering a Kona. I would be interested to see the French offerings - I have owned an ICE Peugeot in the past and found it a great drive, even with the noted issues with electric. Renault was also great (ICE). I’m not familiar with Cupra, and not a fan of Fiat ICE, so I don’t think I would take a second look at the latter.

gnocchicotti

In the US market I don't think there really will be an EV price war. All the companies who aren't Tesla and Rivian are just going to scale back EV production and sell ICE if it's a legacy company, and if it's another EV company they'll go bankrupt.

P_BatemanPhonkMix

Of course. But they have to stop and “fast charge” many times to get to the same destination because the piss poor performance of their batteries with equivalent loads. Ford, Tesla, rivian are all unmitigated disasters in towing anything. I’m not some right wing conspiracy theorist saying this it’s just so hilarious to see people like you admit what im saying is factually correct but “not important because it’s a small percent of cars.” It’s not about pretending that f1 is the main way people get to work, it’s showing that the way electric cars have been promoted is disingenuous. Mileage for trucks isn’t the real mileage for their real world use by many factors, their racing performance is an absolute joke as you agreed, and the only argument left is that commuters can use EVs. Ok why isn’t everyone buying them? It’s been almost 2 decades of absurd hype over EVs and demanding is DYING despite govt regulation forcing prices on ICE cars sky-fucking-high. Even with extreme measures EV isn’t selling. Shit look at Porsche with their taycan. They are sitting on lots. Look, if there is a quantum leap in battery tech I’ll swap over to electric no problem. There are for sure some pros to the tech. But the battery part of the system is so abysmally bad with no light at the end of the tunnel that it makes zero sense to entertain this as the future right now. The fact everyone pretends it is, is hilarious. The worst part is I can’t even bet on this because timing it is extremely hard because people like you are so cucked by politicians and ESG that you will probably Invest your life savings into this shit before the economy has to completely give out. Try comprehensive thinking for once about why use at the extremes (commercial and racing) show the very severe limitations of a technology that is being forced on consumers.

TLettuce

FIRST; I have responded to another post making your claim and addressed it but here you get your own response too I wouldn't want to be rude to the original oil bot. Yes and when typically does a battery get replaced? Is it always common to replace the whole battery? Can you partially replace it? How common is it to replace a whole battery? Is it ever worth it? Be pragmatic show me data. If replacement becomes more common and if there were more used batteries in the market would the price go down or up? When I bought my used Bolt the 100k battery warranty carried over to me by the way and what percentage of users have even reached that 100k mark? It's math I know... scary. The post you linked states a connector was physically damaged not that the battery died suddenly because that isn't typically how a battery issue starts. the shop simply refused to repair the connection. A problem that could be partially remedied in the future by repair shops willing to do the kinds of repairs that a dealer wont. if they ever appear.... I personally avoid dealers like the plague. Also why would I spend 17k on a new battery when I can spend 12k on a used Bolt? I'm not sure it boggles my mind. But these stories are certainly rare. You can give me worst case scenario for EVs I can give you worst case scenarios for ICE. Both can become phenomenally expensive yet despite the fringe cases EVs are cheaper per mile because of less overall maintenance, efficiency and savings on gas. With all things considered! and this will only favor EVs more with time. So you say manufacturers make their money on parts so which car has more parts? ICE or EV? Which has more lifetime maintenance? Who's really getting scammed here? EVs are already proving to go 300k+ on a single battery with minimal degradation and there is no evidence to show this can't be true with the bolt and if it does that is absolutely STELLAR value and I'm sorry the fear mongering has been so effective on you that you can't see that.

TLettuce

GREAT! So batteries are outlasting typical ICE lifespans in many cases but we don't have enough high mile EVs to show this on a large scale. I figured this would be your point. First understand that an EV has fundamentally fewer moving parts and so if you know that AND you assume it will cost more to operate and repair I think you need to question your internal logic. [here is an article](https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-model-s-holds-up-400000-miles-3-years/) about a service that rents Tesla's, which are notoriously expensive to repair, that has one with over 400k miles. They mention 2 battery replacements on that with EXTREMELY poor usage on an OLD model (almost exclusively using fast chargers charging to 100% and being a rental car.) So this is like 200k in the WORST conditions on a single battery. They also mention a model X with 300k miles on the original battery and they have also said that the newer models in general have been outperforming the older ones from a cost perspective. And keep in mind this is Te$la not Chevy etc. So the idea that its like hot potato and the battery will suddenly die at any point is not really in line with how it really happens in the real world is it? [Here is a forum post by someone with 6 years 150k miles on their bolt reporting only 10% battery degradation.](https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/150k-mile-battery-degradation.44690/) I would love to google more for you but if you just google high mileage EV you should find many many others with 100k-200k+ with minimal degradation and high customer satisfaction and time will only reinforce this trend. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_[](https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/150k-mile-battery-degradation.44690/) So this information shows me is that it is still very LIKELY that my used car that cost me barely more than 10k will potentially get me 300k miles or more? And I don't pay for gas? No oil changes practically never changing the brakes no transmission fluid no massive radiator no fuel system NOTHING. Just a motor straight to the wheels a big battery and some miscellaneous electrical components. For bolts there is [only one 'major' maintenance schedule item at 150k which is to replace cooling fluid. ](https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/english/index/owners/new-certified-service/homepage/ev-maintenance/02-pdfs/EV-Maintenance-Schedule_v4.pdf) So remember that these things are not true on gas cars, I used to be a mechanic I know what people are paying and how often when they come into the shop. I'm glad I'm in an EV and the battery is truly not something that haunts me relative to THAT. This is EXCELENT value I have no NEED to resell my car it is doing exactly what I bought it for and saving me money. As for why demand for new bolts is low I truly don't know. People are dumb and oil propaganda is strong. 'It's new and its scary and what if something goes wrong.' keeping up with the joneses maybe? it's a small economy car many people say the seats are uncomfortable? It reminds me of the experiment where a person offers to buy peoples lottery tickets for more than they paid and they refuse. Peoples fears are not always rational! \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Now lets just ignore all of that and see this: Average american spends about $2400 a year on gas and drives 15k miles OR $31k/200k miles after 13 years. So if I buy a used bolt for $12k and drive it 200k miles WHICH IS A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE and didn't spend $31k+ on gas without even mentioning maintenance do you really think that is not value? Look at reality stop fear mongering batteries are outlasting conventional ICEs and providing savings along the way.

FTX-SBF

ICE cars catch on fire at higher rates than EVs/teslas

P_BatemanPhonkMix

Majority of people commute to work on a daily basis and shipping/trucking is even more intensive on battery life and use. EV is literally impossible for commercial use and anyone, ANYONE who understands physics will agree. It’s so absurd that there’s no point to argue that. Ok so for a person using a Tesla the same way a person uses a golf cart in a rich gated neighborhood, or to occasionally drive around town, sure it works. At a large scale, the system does NOT work. EV is 90% energy efficient at the motor, but much less efficient as a system than ICE. Ice vehicles lose efficiency via heat and other ways but the density of the energy in their fuel is absurd. A good way to see differences is to measure extremes. A formula 1 car will complete a lap in X time. A formula E car built to the same weight and horsepower to complete the same lap would only complete 2 laps before running out of power… The typical formula 1 race is like 50+ depending on circuit, and they do that on one tank of gas no refueling. EV as a system is in fact so inferior, that it only works in niche cases. Ask any engineer from a car company 1. Why they make EVs? Answer will always be because the government is making us. Number 2. Ask any engineer in formula 1 How to make the fastest car possible. The answer is no battery, no EV motors, gas engine. The system is so good in ice it’s literally 20-30x better in performance. When you sacrifice performance of the system eventually, on a large scale, for the people that HAVE to drive their car all day and can’t supercharge all day or trickle charge at home constantly, you will see their cost of services in increase. This will all pass to the consumer. You will then be surprised to see wow this is more Complicated than “EV and solar is great!” It’s more like EV and solar work for middle or upper middle class person and for lower class only with subsidies via govt and do not work at all for anything commercial. Americans and the west will have to answer economically for this absurd economic inefficiency we are forcing in a draconian manner and when that happens extreme right wingers will win elections and it’s going to be bad for everyone. But yes, you are right man the few people you see driving teslas in your town mean 99% will be driving EV soon.

Professional_Realist

I bet someone in 1914 wrote this same thing about ICE vehicles...

TLettuce

But what about what about.................. This wasn't the original topic! But that's okay. Just R E M E M B E R yours is a criticism of EV infrastructure not EVs in general. IF we take away ICE infrastructure is there a way for you to run your car? NO?!? Wow what a shit mode of transportation I guess. I lived in an apartment for years with an EV and I'm not alone it was fine. And no you don't need a 'home charging station' in a home you can literally charge on any accessible 110v outlet with as little as 8 amps. Maybe you don't know this and that's fine our brains all rot at some point don't feel bad but yes gold star it's true there is a need in some situations that is not being met and yes maybe there are no chargers nearby near work or at home... then hooray aren't you so special for winning an argument with a strawman because I never claimed or implied that every single person should buy an EV. But again is this the majority of people? NO. Is this barrier insurmountable? NO. Do we have the tech to improve it now? YES. Are those improvements being made? YES.

Nomaad2016

1000s ICE cars catch fires across the world every day. No one talks about that. Elmo fans be like “But not our Tesla? Couldn’t be our precious Tesla!” Roasting the competition parked beside blind. And Tesla gets to be a luxury car! What a sick joke! 😂

TLettuce

This is big oil dickswallow BS. The majority of the population CAN afford EVs. Where I live even minimum wage could get you a new chevy bolt. The bolt is $26k new which means as low as $11k total with max incentive if you're lucky (7500 state + 7500 federal = 15k) which is pretty much cheaper than almost any new ICE car... even with only one or no incentive its absolutely competitive in the cheap end of the market. Used Bolts also with many deals around $10k with sub 20k miles. The #1 selling car in the US is a PICKUP that gets 20mpg and STARTS at $36k. Most people would be saving money not just up front but year after year by switching to electric. Think for yourself.

soggyscantrons

IMO you need to own a home or have a parking spot with a charger. I love getting in my car and having 300 miles of range and never having to stop and get gas. The car is quieter and more responsive than any gas car I’ve ever driven. Add in never smelling exhaust and being able to sit ‘idle’ with climate control running. I don’t see myself going back to a ICE car

various_necks

Why wouldn't you buy a Tesla again? Would you buy another EV to replace your Tesla or would you go back to an ICE car?

andrewczr

Most of today’s ICE cars don’t have a range of 500 miles. Why are we comparing cars to airplanes?

ToeSad6862

They definitely don't. I have a 69 mustang, had an 80s 911, a 99. How long your battery last? 5 years? C'mon bruh. There's ICE Ford's from 1920 running. Your battery will literally explode if you try to keep it that long even if it's off.

AVALANCHE_CHUTES

I don't know too much about electric cars, but my perception is that all manufactures embellish driving ranges. Similar how for ICE cars, MPG figures are usually very optimistic, and measured by manufactures in the most ideal of circumstances that you won't really see in the world world.

telepatheye

Choose any EV company. The product is still inferior to ICE cars. Market demand is manipulated by climate change promises based on FUD and companies are only above water based on government subsidies on the backs of taxpayers. How far do we want to take this? If the answer is we want to bankrupt ourselves and wreck our way of life and freedom in pursuit of controlling the climate, that has been warming since the last ice age, we are fools.

HipsterCavemanDJ

Batteries are still much too heavy for aviation. In theory, hybrid ICE airplanes could exist, but no one is interested in polluting less unless there’s government money involved.

Rain_In_Your_Heart

Luxury is not just a marketing term. Certainly, marketers will tell you that their cheaply made products are luxury, but if you're trying to do value / depreciation / whatever other economic analysis of a product, you have to determine for yourself if it falls into such a category since the market will definitely do it. Luxury cars depreciate quickly because a) buyers who want to spend a lot of money on a nice fit and finish want a whole complete shiny fresh package with it, not a seat someone else has sat on for years. And b) luxury cars come with small tolerances and usually powerful drivetrains that are less reliable and last less long. Teslas depreciate quickly because they are electric cars. All electric cars depreciate incredibly fast no matter the price point or the build quality. This is because a) the batteries don't last very long and require an extremely expensive replacement and b) noone wants them. The market got flooded with them relative to "normal" demand because of the hype and promises, and now that reality is setting in and the world's economy is struggling, they are recessing to their mean current worth which is far below the cost to make them. This is an important distinction to make because the other drivetrain components on EVs (particularly the motor, but also because of lack of a transmission) last extremely long compared to virtually any modern ICE car. The high depreciation on a luxury car is a fact of life and will most likely always be that way. The high depreciation on a budget EV doesn't have to. They just have to solve those problems first: a) manufacturing cost (especially batteries) b) battery life c) make people actually want them (which is primarily an infrastructure and energy cost problem). Those are all solvable and will be in 10-20 years. That's why it's important to know that Teslas are not luxury cars, and that is not why they are depreciating.

Davetology

The reason they are so cheap is because the CCP subsidies them like crazy so they can crush other car manufacturers. No transparancy on how the metals were mined and and the carbon footprint from the energy to build them, if you really care about emissions and sustainability and can't afford a higher priced EV from non-chinese companies then just buy an ICE car.

Used_Wolverine6563

Don't mox Tesla with Spacex. Spacex is a private entity. Tesla is a PUBLIC company were Musk doesn't even have more than 51% (controlling share). Tesla is affordable in only 2 EVs. Many other EVs have similar or lower pricing all over the world. There are even OEMs launching platforms with ICE, PHEV and BEVs ao they can r3ach way more markets than Tesla.

sc2summerloud

only because there is so many ICE models to split their sales on.

Jebediah-Kerman-3999

My guess is they learned that you make more money selling fewer items for a higher price rather than trying to invade the market. But they forgot that the Chinese manufacturers don't need the knowhow about ICE to obliterate them

NWTknight

Here is the hybrid I would like. You have and EV with the option of putting in a fuel powered generator for range extension or self charging when necessary. I am not saying it has to be an ICE powered generator it could be a hydrogen fuel cell or even a swap able battery pack. Yes this would take up cargo space and would not work in all vehicle configurations but I looked at one of the Ford Lightning EV's and it has lots of room under the hood or in the box for a generator of some type. Does not need to be big enough to get you anywhere fast if the batteries are dead just give you a limp mode to get to a charger or if you can stop for a while gets you a charge enough to get to a charging station. The final benefit for those of us living with extreme cold weather is the waste heat could go to keeping you alive while stuck in the ditch in a snow storm.

Zednot123

That is a temporary problem that will be solved over time though. From a technical standpoint. It should be easier to evaluate the health of a EV than ICE vehicle. But the infrastructure and methods to do that has to be standardized and implemented. The car manufacturers themselves have a lot of work to do there as well. They have to realize that providing good diagnostics and data to third parties for the vehicle, to enable a good secondary market. Will benefit them from more primary sales in the long run.

guh_mystocks

>Teslas have their own major issues too because insuring them is higher because any damage is basically a total and having QA issues. Resale value is plummeting. I hadn't heard about the insurance costs, so I looked it up - according to a quick Google search, monthly insurance premiums on new Teslas can be in excess of $300 *a month*. By comparison, insurance on my 2023 ICE vehicle costs about $70 a month with full coverage, and it gets about 35 miles to the gallon. Even though I have to pay for gas, overall cost of ownership is far less. The value proposition just isn't there for the majority of Americans.

cblguy82

Wtf are you smoking? A tailpipe? Don’t cut down on emissions? I’ll stand in the closed garage with the electric car for a couple hours. You take the ICE car. Let’s see which has more emissions!

Accomplished-Bill-45

EV are shit , especially those made in china. I wouldn’t consider buy any of the stocks or products. EV is Xi Jinping ‘s favourite , local governments trying to suck his dick by pushing local branded EV in an ugly way. Lots of EV company granted extreme low interest rate of loan from state owned bank. Huge unpaid payment owed to the car makers suppliers . This is exactly how evergrand and other real estate companies collapsed and lead to the entire economy fucked up 5 years ago. Plus, lots of other zero environmental protection such as low pressured fuel tank such as BYD, which leads to the environmental emission more than conventional gasoline ICE and range extender ( using gasoline and ICE to generate electricity to charge battery, then the car use battery to move , Li Auto, Xiaomi, AITO etc) In fact, all lithium extract/mined/processed, and battery made in China are so bad for the environment, also, their over investments leads to so much wasted that takes the earth decades to absorb. ( thinking about how much shared bike they produced and needed to recycle few years back) All these complete defeat the purpose of EV. And I’m not even start to talk about the immolation rate occurs with these low quality cars ( but all such news have been intentionally oppressed ) . The ferry limits the load of EV to 10% during the transportation between Hanan and mainland. Lots of insurance companies dramatically increase their fees on EV last year.

Accomplished-Bill-45

How about extreme low interest rate of loan from state owned bank? Huge unpaid payment to the car makers suppliers . This is exactly how evergrand and other real estate companies collapsed lead to the entire economy fucked up. Plus, Regulator allowing low pressured fuel tank ( which leads to the environmental emission more than conventional gasoline ICE) and lots of other zero environmental protection and labor abuse.

JoJoPizzaG

Many people don’t understand this.  Look at ICE dealerships and see how full their lots are now. 

Chornobyl_Explorer

This is the hard truth Tesla fanboys hate. They want to spin a false narrative about Alon the Enlightened™ who fought against impossible odds and somehow secured victory defying all odds and statistics! Anyone doing a casual glance realises what a load of horse shit it is. Elon would *never agree to a potential payout, if he thought he had a risk of missing it*. Elon started his EV buisness just as *major players like the EU* started pouring billions into green tech and anything "environmental". He was *betting on getting green carbon credits* and the fact all ICE brands were too happy selling old cars to move to the future (like Kanon, who patented yet refused to sell a digital camera because they made millions selling analogue photos). While it wasn't a guaranteed sucess he made his bet based on *market and governmental trends* going fill Greta. And he was right. The real genius here wasn't Musk, it was his *data analysts who gave him the green future on a platter* until Muska ego fucked things up. As always...see Paypal aka the company almost known as "X"

WetRacoon

Not sure who you’re responding to but I’m pro-EV, not pro-ICE?

BunnyBunny777

The brake input overrides the accelerator… in EVs. This would have been a safety disaster in ICE cars.

RiverLakeOceanCloud

Exactly, the electric vehicle market sentiment in 2024 will be a fart in the wind in a couple years. Is it guaranteed that Tesla will succeed? No, like any investment there is risk but betting on Tesla is a bet that electric vehicles will soon dominate ICE vehicles and hybrids. It is a bet that Tesla's battery business will mature. It is a bet that FSD will finally materialize. It is a bet that robots will eventually be among us. It is a bet in the future. I can't find a company that bets on the future as much as Tesla does. Find me one company, please.

soulstonedomg

The EVs themselves aren't much more expensive than ICE. It's mostly an infrastructure problem.

Cant_Turn_Right

Thanks for your response. I am not talking TSLA per se as much as ICE vs. EV. EVs are awful for road trips. We make several long road trips a year, and the issue we have is the \*unpredictability\*. Some times we see a big traffic bottleneck come up and pull off an hour before the scheduled stop. Sometimes we feel like we could keep going so pull over and switch drivers on the shoulder and make a long 5 hour run. Can pull over anytime for gas in ICE, tank up in 5 minutes and keep going. I also believe that EVs don't have a pronounced advantage over ICE cars as daily drivers. With a decent ICE car, tanking up gas is likely a once a week 5 minute affair at any of the plentiful gas stations, barely less convenient than plugging into a charger at home. Scheduled maintenance are regular oil changes till 75K miles and the type of maintenance after that is also becoming incredibly simple - spark plugs, coolant, etc. So basically with an EV one trades off a slight advantage on home ground - when everything is usually predictable and solvable - for a massive disadvantage on the road. > The fact that you use "years" as a metric makes it obvious you didn't even know that tires have a shelf life. Massively illogical statement. I said you would need to change tires after a couple years since tire wear is more. Model 3s weigh 3800 lbs, 25% more than a comparable gas car. The acceleration and deceleration (regen braking) are more pronounced in EVs and wear is more as the center of gravity is close to the ground.

RhettOracle

Haven't seen a cybertruck in the wild yet. Chicago burbs. Teslas are very common everyday cars here. Rivian mini truck has local presence here so they are fairly common, but I see those mostly on the weekend, seems they are second car toys for most. I know a few people who bought EVs and then bought ICE cars because the EV didn't suit their needs for commuting or longer drives, and only drive the EV on the weekend now.

Turtlesz

I'm a buyer of solar if the price is right, it needs low rates to thrive though. Our solar panels fully paid themselves off in 3.5 years and had no electric bill even with 2 EVs. I love ICE sports cars but this has been an absolute game changer for me. Plaid X and a R1S leaves no desire to get another ICE.

Daddy-Eric

Well, TSLA has zero hybrids...so. Consumers want ICE or hybrid, EV is essentially dead right now due to all the major problems with them. I'm not saying Ford stock is a growth stock, but I'm saying Tesla should be the same, a car company stock, no growth, slim margins, major competition. Everyone has EVs now. It's a $20 stock to me. Why wouldn't it be?

AP9384629344432

Seems like an very justified sell-off for an auto company. I'm just amazed it took this long. Chinese competition is only going to accelerate. Hybrids/ICE staging a comeback. Near term earnings are going to be a disaster. Company apparently going all in on a robotaxi fantasy. And despite all this, you're still paying an insane P/E or EV / EBITDA or whatever metric you like for all this. And I really see no possible 'gold rush' of earnings expansion to suddenly make them appear cheap. CEO is throwing out all sorts of hype news headlines (FSD version 13.40.50.1 woah! New gigafactory in India! Robots servants!) But all that is a distraction. Mass layoffs indicate production is being idled, not expanded. Not what you want from a growth company. The CEO was shitposting about D E I and the extra chair in a hotel the day the layoffs were announced.