ICE

Rasskassassmagas

I currently drive a Ford Escape Hybrid, that 38mpg is shitting on the 25 mpg the ICE models get and I don't have to wait around for my fucking car to charge

WJMMusic

it’s not difficult to understand that with a higher point of entry a vast amount of americans will continue to use ICE as long as it’s a cheaper up front option, the market for EVs and hybrids are already fucked to the point where you aren’t even saving that much over the long run, and then gas drops from its all time high’s and the difference isn’t even noticeable, if you can afford an EV, you can afford to put gas in your car stop being so dramatic

Nimmy_the_Jim

I realise this but it's largely irrelevant. In fact I'm sure there will be certain collectors & niche ICE vehicles and manufacturers that will stay for a long time. But the inflection point for majority worldwide EV sales is only a few years away and certainly before the end of the decade. Raw material supply chain restrictions will be the major constraint.

TJMBeav

If it's possible (may not be. Don't argue) it would be awesome. I love my 550 hp Caddilac. The sound. The feel. I mean ICE cars are cool. But my Chevy Volt plug in hybrid in electric mode is a totally different experience. The instant torque and acceleration is hard to describe. And thats a Volt! Someday I gotta drive a full powrred EV in ludicrous mode. It has to be fantastic! Still in love with my Tesla puts tho. 😁

purplehammer

You do realise how long it will be before the last ICE vehicles that roll off the production line finally die due to lack of replacement parts/rust etc? It will be many decades my dude.

Nimmy_the_Jim

“will always buy ICE” lol

PresentationUpset719

Most tesla is like California Camry lol people buy it to save couple bucks on the gas . I get it I have test drove more high-end tesla like Model S, it's extremely boring to drive compare to the ICE car in the same price range like gtr, 911 etc Even the "cheaper" car AWD m3 competition g80 is significantly more fun to drive. Man I love this gen m3. I wouldn't buy any current Tesla unless I will only be in the passenger seats.

the_turd_ferguson

That’s cool, I love driving a great ICE car every now and then- got to drive a GTR around a track a few years ago and it was exhilarating. But most people don’t care about stick shift or performance when looking to buy a daily driver- that’s why midsize SUVs are so popular. The average consumer wants comfort and reliability. The first commenter who I originally replied to was implying that rising interest rates would hurt Tesla sales- but here’s the thing, rates are rising no matter what manufacturer you’re shopping. And when you throw in the rising cost of gas it’s pretty obvious that more people will want to move to EVs.

the_turd_ferguson

>wants performance >only buys ICE vehicles The cognitive dissonance is startling. Maybe you're actually more interested in cool vroom vroom sounds than performance on the road?

PresentationUpset719

not really, a lot of us who love performance vehicle will always buy ICE, and we can afford couple bucks for the gas price lmao

the_turd_ferguson

Gonna be hard to justify buying an ICE vehicle with higher gas prices too.

Cistran

gasoline was toxic byproduct of the only oil product elites of the time cared - diesel fuel for the ship engines. ICE was solution which allowed oil refiners to get rid of gasoline and get paid for it too.

Fausterion18

Past inventors creating the electrical circuit doesn't mean they could have invented fucking antimatter reactors. You're literally just throwing your hands in the air and going "who knows maybe they could have invented literally magic!" In reality EVs lost because those same past inventors failed to come up with a better battery. The end. No conspiracy, no "long term planning by auto and oil companies". They were just worse than ICE vehicles.

tms102

>730B market cap(meanwhile ford has a 46B market cap) which is massive compared to their current profits. Do you even know what their current profits and margins are? You're comparing them to ford? Tesla made about the same in net profits as ford in Q1 2022 if you exclude Ford's massive loss on the Rivian stake. Similarly close in Q4 2021. All while Tesla is selling fewer cars. Clearly Tesla's margins are way better than Ford's margins. So what do you think will happen when Tesla manages to ramp up their 2 new massive factories? Especially the one in Germany, allowing them to save on shipping costs. ​ >Personally i think they will not be able to maintain this rate of growth, competition has slowly started to catch up with Tesla. I'm not sure why anyone would think that, unless they don't really pay attention to plans from each automaker. The competition is years away from any serious volume. Meanwhile, Tesla is still selling every car they make and have a months worth of orders. If you have any evidence showing that Tesla's sales are slowing down I'd love to see it. Also not sure why Tesla's sales would suffer and not ICE or EV sales from legacy automakers. People always seem to imply it is "everyone vs Tesla". These car makers are also competing among each other and with their own ICE sales, right?

Round-Ad-1491

Another advantage of ICE is: it keeps your drinks cold.

80MonkeyMan

Dude, no adult talking insult after insult. Thats all you do, and it shows that you are not educated and a person without any vision. If Elon doesn’t have that, everyone will still be riding ICE cars now. We actually have much more great mind back in the days.

Fausterion18

They had a smoother and quieter ride than ICE cars of the time tho, and maintenance was less. You have to keep in mind what they were competing against. Ultimately electric cars lost purely due to range and to a lesser extent power(which was limited by the batteries at the time). The high cost also didn't help.

Fausterion18

My god you're stupid. EVs absolutely "developed" back in the day. They just couldn't keep up with ICE development because the battery technology did not exist and could not exist without modern computers. >I wonder the same thing, how anyone on this earth could be so dumb. You cannot be more than 18 years old. Lmao click on my profile and realize how stupid you look right now.

80MonkeyMan

If you know how to read, you should understand that I said why ICE car developed instead of EV back in the days! I wonder the same thing, how anyone on this earth could be so dumb. You cannot be more than 18 years old.

Fausterion18

>I bet you call a lot of peoples retard. You especially. >You not comparing apple to apple. First ICE car is made in 1886 with 0.75-hp and the first EV is probably around 1887 to 1888 with 4-hp. Hey dumbass, I said 1930s, not the first EV. The EV in the OP was made in 1908. Do you know how to read? >If EV tech wins back in the days, by 1930 we would probably have EV that can go 100 miles. The EV in the OP can go 100 miles, just at a much slower speed than a model T that cost 1/7 as much. >You know theres DC charger right? Not as fast as filling up gas but its getting better every year. I literally have an EV you retard. The topic is about why EVs lost to ICE cars in the 1920s and 30s not "the first EV" or EVs today. How are you this dumb?

80MonkeyMan

I bet you call a lot of peoples retard. You not comparing apple to apple. First ICE car is made in 1886 with 0.75-hp and the first EV is probably around 1887 to 1888 with 4-hp. If EV tech wins back in the days, by 1930 we would probably have EV that can go 100 miles. You know theres DC charger right? Not as fast as filling up gas but its getting better every year.

80MonkeyMan

Lol…😂, check your fact again. First EV have more HP than ICE cars. Do you understand the efficiency of ICE engine? That might be too difficult to digest for you.

80MonkeyMan

Well, who still doesn’t understand why ICE cars become the norm instead EV after decades. Me or you?

Pic889

Another advantage of ICE is that you can just fill up in 3 minutes or so. Instead, those 100miles, once they were exhausted, they were exhausted. Teslas didn't become viable as primary cars until supercharging became a thing. It's one of the reasons Tesla started making two-seater roadsters: They had to have enough range for weekend drives and supercharging for long trips was irrelevant (the other reason was the ability to charge a high price, no economies of scale for EVs back then).

Fausterion18

What does forward thinking have to do with electric cars not being able to keep up with ICE in the 1930s?

Fausterion18

What the fuck are you smoking? Electrical supply was far more centralized a hundred years ago compared to gasoline. The reason they lost is because electric cars couldn't keep up with ICE in power.

RF-blamo

In the end, it doesn’t fucking matter, because the economics will drive consumer behavior. You can either charge your EV for $0.03-$0.05 /mile or use an ICE vehicle equivalent for $0.35-$0.50 / mile. The current tax credits and rebates make the difference in purchase price negligible. Electricity generation costs are changing as well. Wind and solar are in direct competition from a $/kw-hr perspective for producers, and they keep getting more attractive. The economics of self-supply are coming into range as well. For a $10-20k investment in solar+storage, you could self-generate enough electricity for a typical home AND vehicle charging. People are doing it successfully. The energy landscape is changing, whether you want to believe it or not. The smart money would be placed on where we are going, not where we’ve been. PLUG, CHPT, LAC, SLDP…

dreadedowl

>Battery replacement isn’t necessary because you can fast-charge an EV battery from nearly empty to nearly full in 20 minutes You can get about 80% with 40 minutes with a 50kw charger (commercial grade). Even the LVL3 175 kw chargers (which there are really few of) is 15-20 minutes to the 80% mark. I can fill a gas tank in less than 5 typically. 20 minutes is way too ling. I am heavily involved in the electrification of the country, EV charger locations, electric delivery, and the EV market. I am well aware of what you are saying, BUT there are a ton of people that drive all over all day. And where I am from, a 300+ mile drive is quite typical for long weekends. Considering the vast number of installed chargers are less than 50kw (level 2) a 40 minute charge time vs. the convenience of 5 minute fuel fill up isn't even close. This is why I said for some people they are a viable replacement. There is a vast network of people they are not ready for yet. The power grid CANNOT sustain everyone having and EV. It isn't even close. There is a ton of build out still required. EVs are cool. They are fun. They are just not going to replace ICE in 5, 10 or 15 years. Its going to be 30+. I have an Lightning. Loving it. But I cant get rid of my ICE F150 because the Lightning wouldn't allow me to take the trips I do. Yea, if I seldom travel and work in a single spot they are great. I (and many people) travel frequently, and drive for work (sales/taxi/contractor).

equityorasset

agreed I dont get how people dont understand this. and even besides your points EV's are a store of energy not a producer. the Mining for EV resources are still going to require ICE engines as well.

Working-Form1858

Conflict material? I’m still waiting for people to realize that EV have a worse environmental impact than an ICE vehicle

Cervix-Hammer

Except you’re completely wrong. You are talking motor efficiency on the vehicle only, where ICE have an 80% thermodynamic loss (energy to heat) from the fuel. You need to go by the well to wheel efficiency. This includes the power plant efficiency of burning fuels, converting to steam and producing electricity in turbines. After factoring the power plant efficiency into making electrical power, EV cars range from 13-31% when power is produced by NG, 13-27% when produced from coal and 13-26% produced from diesel. Compared to the well to wheel efficiency of ICE vehicles, diesel is 25-37% efficient, gasoline being 11-27% efficient. So, it’s actually you who is a fucking retard. Go read a god damn book.

gemstatertater

Do you own or have direct experience with an EV? Your first two concerns just … aren’t actual problems. Battery replacement isn’t necessary because you can fast-charge an EV battery from nearly empty to nearly full in 20 minutes. A long road trip involves a minimal amount of charging, and you can use the bathroom and grab lunch while the car charges. And that’s only an issue on roadtrips - 95%+ of my charging is at home, which means I’m saving the 5-10 minutes I’d spend at a gas station every week in an ICE car. And that home charging occurs at off-peak times, which minimizes grid impact.

tms102

Far less pollution than ICE cars for sure. Zero consideration? I think you're projecting your own ignorance onto others. People are well aware of the challenges ahead and are working on them. BEVs are only one part of a more sustainable future.

KudzuNinja

There’s no reasonable difference between repairing an electric car and ICE car. Electric is probably easier.

dreadedowl

For some individuals they are a viable replacement. Until they get a quick swap battery in place and standardize that and get those battery replacement stations lined up they are not viable yet. I have faith that we can get there, but gas will be around for a long time. We also need a way to solve businesses that run them 18+ hours a day (like a farm). Then you have the big issue of our POWER grid cannot handle EV, it needs serious upgrades. And you currently have 250 million ICE (roughly) in the USA. If you are building 15 million EV cars a year, and do a 1-1 replacement, that will take 16-17 years to replace what we currently have (just in the USA). So yea, realistically and hopefully in 30 years we will be mostly EV.

Nerdler17

It's a step in the right direction though....removing ICE from the roads is a good thing....why are you so against it?

sangderenard

Oh you're right better use an ICE car instead of an e-bike because lithium mining also produces some amount of pollution

RF-blamo

Lithium battery materials can be recycled. They wont be going into landfills. The break-even point for TOTAL GHG impact from EV’s (production + use) range between 30,000 - 60,000 miles, depending on the model. After that point they have negated their higher carbon emissions to produce over their ICE competition. As this is WSB…. Keep eyes open for battery recycling companies. There will be some winners created in the next few years. Also watching SLDP closely…. Next gen battery producer now expanding and qualified for introduction on domestic vehicles. CHPT is going to continue to grow, as the leading EV charge station producer and servicer.

Harry_the_space_man

Hey dumb dumb, what I’m saying is that for the same amount of energy, you get between 6-8 times more miles out of an EV compared to an ICE car.

RF-blamo

Modern gas combined cycle power plants are +60% efficient. Still better than an ICE vehicle.

Nerdler17

Your belief doesn't make it true. Generating energy to charge batteries in a power plant is much cleaner than, using an ICE to power a vehicle.

JDinvestments

And at only 10x more copper than ICE, we can strip mine every emerging and frontier market for their resources. But at least we get to act superior to *the poors* a liitle longer.

CapitalFruit331

Hey smooth brain, even the dirtiest coal power plant generates power an order of magnitude cleaner than an ICE.

Jeezy911

And Nobody wants to dirty ICE smoke

Harry_the_space_man

Your an idiot too. As I said to OP EV=89% efficient ICE=13% efficient.

ScheduleTraditional6

Lord, you just don’t want to acknowledge the overstatement of “100% figured out”. Where we are with EV’s is promising, but like you said yourself, nothing just gets immediately figured out. We are nowhere near 100% even theoretically, however, I believe giving up on the ICE for domestic transportation is our safest bet. Container ships and, for a while, trucks that make up the worlds logistics will remain on diesel in the foreseeable future till Hydrogen takes over. How long this will take depends on how fast the market develops and how it will compare in efficiency to its ICE predecessors.

merlinsbeers

The other makers had sunk cost in ICE that they were leveraging. They're pivoting to EV now that ICE is being deprecated around the world. Tesla got a couple of years to itself. Ford, VW, Benz, BMW, Nissan, GM, and about twenty others are coming for it. Tesla will need to improve its quality and pricing or get clobbered.

Graffy

Oil has a lot of energy but most of it is wasted in an ICE. ICEs use around 30% of the total energy stored. Electric motors use around 70% of the stored energy making them far more efficient. Also the emissions of a gasoline engine are far worse than the emissions of an electric motor which is pretty much just heat, not counting how the electricity was made. Pointing to our lack of electric planes isn't really an argument against electricity. We didn't used to have hybrid cars 50 years ago and now we have fully electric vehicles that are practical for daily use.

jkjkjij22

I completely support this. We should minimise use/reliance of cars. Unfortunate reality is that US has been built around cars for past 80 years, and unless we have a plan to move 100 million people immediately, cars are sticking around for some time. And during that time, EV > ICE

phliff

Is it a safety concern? Don’t understand the angle. All the pollution coming off the ICE cars are a concern for me! I won’t live of stay at hotels right by a highway.

Backseat-critic

Okay but what is “lifetime” versus miles driven? If a Tesla car only lasts half as long as an ICE, then it isn’t any better off. Not saying this is the case, but “lifetime” is a terrible metric.

TriumphITP

1- plastics and rubbers can be recycled. We will still need oil to produce synthetics, but as it stands crude oil > plastics is single digit percentages of total production, maybe 4-8%. and it is not as if ICE cars do not use plastics or rubber. 2 - power grid issues can be addressed and factored in - [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8749456/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8749456/) \- peak demand is part of the problem, and may require some incentives, [https://news.columbia.edu/news/how-electric-vehicles-could-fix-electrical-grid](https://news.columbia.edu/news/how-electric-vehicles-could-fix-electrical-grid) \- [https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.4978](https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.4978) ​ 3 - lithium can be recycled, almost endlessly. Redwood materials is my favorite one leading that goal, but there are sure to be startups as it becomes profitable, even if it is an oscillation of profitable/unprofitable.

essdii-

My great grandfather supported my great grandma and their kids by working at an ice cream shop. Like, dude scooped ice cream. Owned his own house with 3/4 an acre in Kansas City. SCOOPING ICE CREAM.

gemstatertater

They’re a viable replacement today on an individual level, and will rapidly replace ICE vehicles.

dreadedowl

This is one of the single stupidest comments I've seen. Sure there are some stupid coal burners running around being dumb, but I know many conservatives that buy EV. Your comment is akin to "Liberals don't buy gas guzzling cars". But they do. FFS, EV cars are pretty awesome and hopefully in 30 years they will be a viable replacement for ICE.

whamburgers

>fact that legacy auto needs to cannibalize their own ICE sales during the transition to EV. This is like saying they're cannibalizing 2021 model sales to transition to 2022 models. I don't think anyone is expecting legacy autos to maintain ICE sales while moving to EV.

loggic

That might have been the case 20 years ago, but it isn't the case today. Mass transportation is the best solution, but lifecycle emissions from modern EVs are so much less than ICE that there's a crossover point. Yeah, if you buy a new car every year then that's not gonna work out, but if you plan on a car lasting you 20 years then EV is better now & improving all the time. That's especially true if you have solar on your house to charge the EV.

mikemikemotorboat

Actually even on 100% coal it’s still better over the lifetime of the EV compared to a comparable ICE vehicle. It’s about 6 years to break even instead of 9-12 months on the average (US) grid mix. [Source](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lifetime-carbon-emissions-electric-vehicles-vs-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/)

mikemikemotorboat

Especially because in 5 years that EV will almost certainly be powered by less coal and more renewables than it is today. Any ICE vehicle you buy will require exactly the same amount of fossil fuel (or more as it deteriorates) for its entire ~12 year lifespan.

mikemikemotorboat

Despite having a larger initial production carbon footprint, the net carbon emissions of a Model 3 operating on the average US grid drop below that of a Carolla after 13,500 miles, less than a year of driving for the average vehicle. As more renewables are added to the grid, or if the grid where you charge is cleaner than average, this timeline will accelerate. So unless your EV is totaled in it’s first year of operation, it’s going contribute less carbon than an ICE vehicle. [Source](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lifetime-carbon-emissions-electric-vehicles-vs-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/)

dreadedowl

We can't even recycle plastic containers for shit, let alone lithium or other toxic items. Yea, hopefully we can work on improving emissions on ICE, better mining for EV, and maybe some reasonable way of turning my milk carton into something recycled. HOWEVER, I'd really like to stop this solely being the burden of the person. The companies, producers, and factories are dumping so much waste into the world, my plastic straw isn't even a drop in the ocean of their filth.

DarklyAdonic

My friend was bragging last year about how he spent "only $16k" buying an EV after tax credits and trading in his 3 year old car. Unless you're driving hundreds of miles a week at these gas prices there is no way that's gonna be a net gain for you over the cars lifespan. I like the idea of EVs, I just don't see them as competitively priced versus ICE even with tax credits and savings from gas right now.

Pandaman246

A lot of people say competition is coming but they also don’t account for the fact that legacy auto needs to cannibalize their own ICE sales during the transition to EV. This is partly why I’m bullish on tesla. Not only does the competition need to maintain revenues as they transition, they need to grow faster. The new EV companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid do not have this problem

Graffy

Yeah ICE are insanely inefficient. Even an ideal ICE would be extremely low.

Sapere_aude75

I think more context is important. Battery capacity has a high likely hood of power density increases in the future unlike gas, EVs are much simpler to manufacture, EVs have much less maintenance, EV's are more reliable(less moving parts and emmissions controls), you can produce your power much easier with EV's, EV's have better power delivery, EV's have better weight distribution control, etc... EV's will be far superior to ICE vehicles. This is hard to argue, and I say this as someone who enjoys building gas and diesel engines.

Fartbox7000

This logic always amazes me. ICE cars powered by fuel which creates emissions. Areas that use coal for electricity to power a electric car. 1-1. ICE car produces emissions as it runs further contributing to carbon dioxide emissions. The electric car doesn’t. 2-1.

THB0YMEH0Y

Also as an engineer, you should know that water vapour is a greenhouse gas as well. The rest of your point is valid though. Producing electricity with coal to power your car is still cleaner than driving an ICE vehicle

BlackSquirrel05

Can totally talk about it... It's just the impact is still less than current energy extraction methods. Or the creation of standard ICE vechs. So given that... What's your point exactly? Or is is just chauvinism?

BlackSquirrel05

This is like saying oil companies want you to drive ICE... So they can sell you more oil. Yes... That is what they want. They want you to further buy their product... And?

jojoyahoo

Why the fuck is this shitting on nuclear? That's literally our best bet to get off fossil fuels. And which smooth brain thinks this is smart commentary? Burning coal in a plant and using it for electricity is way more efficient than an ICE, so this is so dumb.

ManBehavingBadly

Nope, there is no scenario where the ICE car is more eco friendly, even if you charge your EV exclusively with the worst kind of coal. There are studies about this.

CarlCarl3

It's an improvement all by itself because ICE engines are inefficient. And worldwide, a not insignificant amount of grid electricity is already renewable. And at least in the US, almost all car charging is done in homes, which can have their own renewable energy source.

Radthereptile

GM is making the 2023 Chevy Bolt sub 30K. That's a huge price drop and puts it in line with several new ICE cars. Might see a bump in Bolt sales.

Never-don_anal69

Than as an engineer please tell us how much co2 is emitted while mining the lithium and producing the battery. How much in disposing or recycling it? How much is lost in the power grid. Fuck we don’t need an engineer to tell us duuh ICE inefficient! If we’re just looking at the thermal efficiency then diesel is way more efficient than petrol or even coal power plant yet its the first to go. In conclusion, electric cars is an American solution to an American problem.

redditbarns

In the post you’re responding to it says EV powered by renewable energy (i.e. rooftop solar) produces 6.3 metric tons of lifetime… which is less than 1/10th of average ICE vehicle.

leightdogg

Those that claim they have to sell a kidney to switch ICE are paying the same amount charging their EV

What-tha-fck_Elon

Efficiency is not the point, sorry. The grid needs to be updated to more wind and solar, better hydro, nuclear (hopefully fusion soon). Comparing current EVs to ICE cars right now is not worth it and is just distraction talk from the oil & gas industry. My entire house runs on electricity, so focusing on the efficiency of a refrigerator or a car is not super relevant. The power comes from many sources, but we need to strive to get off fossil fuels first and foremost. Using less gasoline is better for the world, period. But nice sciencing on the energy efficiency stuff.

Spydude84

And electric vehicles have less brake wear due to regenerative braking. They are just so much better than ICE cars in literally every single way.

QuantumWarrior

Unironically if you burned coal at a modern coal plant and used that electricity to run a car it'd still be more CO2 efficient than burning petrol in a small scale ICE. The economies of scale in power generation are nothing to mess with. The gains are only better when coal is phased out for oil, gas, or green sources.

avatarfire

I just wish electric cars had the comfort and furnishing of ICE.

RaphTheSwissDude

First there isn’t an energy grid that is 100% coal, second, even when an energy grid is 100% coal, an EV would be as the same level as en ICE in term of pollution… So kind of a dumb post without any research made.

sonofalando

For the first time ever this week I thought about capitulating and trading in my ICE for an electric car.

kamakazekiwi

Here's an actual source full of properly cited claims for you. https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/evs-are-they-really-more-efficient/#_edn3 In short, EVs are far more efficient than ICE vehicles, and run on much cleaner grid electricity. Even coal fired grid energy is cleaner than the same amount of energy provided by a single ICE, because producing that energy at a massive scale allows the system to be engineered for FAR greater efficiency than a small engine that is directly used to power a vehicle.

Leading-Ability-7317

Here is a quick and dirty breakdown of the business: Renewable energy: Biggest things here are the megapack and auto bidder software. So far they have shown to be very competitive in the grid scale storage market and auto bidder looks like it will be super interesting as this scales out. They are also an authorized utility in the UK and Texas so they can build their own facilities and sell frequency regulation and peaker services to the grid there. Solar had promise but they went all in on solar roof and not much hasn’t happened here and they have low market share now. Maybe this recovers but I am not betting on it. Overall I think megapack + auto bidder is a compelling product and as they become less battery constrained this part of the business will rival revenue, but not profit, from the automotive side in 10 years. AI: More of a moonshot here but they have FSD and the bot program. What I am looking at here is the scale at which they are able to process raw data with their Dojo supercomputer. I am not sold on them solving FSD at scale in the next 5 years but the innovations in auto tagging images, sensor fusion, and their custom silicon all have potential to be products. I am thinking an AWS like service is possible here. But super speculative. Insurance: Where they can they are adjusting rates based on driving behavior (auto opt in with no opt out option). This will cause safer drivers to self select this insurance and unsafe drivers to go with another company. Margins should be good but since this is limited to Teslas only I don’t see it as a huge driver of profit. It’s more of a nice extra bump to the profit line in my opinion. Automotive: I am skeptical of them being able to sell 20 million cars a year by 2030 but I think 10million is totally doable. Their competition is still moving really really slowly. Also if you look at Teslas manufacturing efficiency they used to be the worst at the start of the Model 3 ramp and now they are one of the best. Their ability to do large scale castings at scale make them interesting in this space. Risk factors I see here are fit/finish issues, uneven scale out of service centers and battery availability. But their competition has larger looming issues with dealer network resistance to EVs, unwinding ICE supplier contracts, and software issues (no legacy OEM is good at software). As we have seen with he issues with the Bolt and to a lesser degree the Mach-E experience building ICE cars doesn’t translate 1 to 1 with building EVs. Competition is for sure coming here but I see it as selling into an expanding EV market. No way we completely phase out ICE vehicles by 2030 so there is room for multiple players in this market. Risk factors: 1. Elon - he can swing the stock wildly day to day so don’t invest if you have issues with seeing a plus or minus 10% day because he did something dumb that day. 2. China - currently is 50% of their production so the CCP getting angry at Elon can have outsized effects. 3. Solid state batteries - Tesla has battery research facilities looking at this as well but it is possible that someone could steal the March on them if a breakthrough happens here. Tesla is pretty invested in incremental improvements so there is a chance of a stranded asset scenario here. DISCLAIMER: I am a Tesla bull but I think conservatively Tesla can 3-4x their current stock price while reducing their PE to 20-30 by 2030 off of 10 million/year vehicles and the energy side alone. If they manage to crack FSD then it could go much higher but that is still very much a moonshot from a technical and regulatory perspective.

aliveandwellthanks

Damn you couldn't pay me to get in a Ford anything. That company has made so many mistakes, they can't even get an ICE car right what makes you think their EV lineup has any chance?

BlackScholesDeezNuts

I think Tesla is overpriced but not with enough conviction to short it. What I think is *underpriced* are several historically ICE manufacturers who have already caught up and surpassed Tesla in affordable consumer EVs. One of Tesla’s biggest selling points on IP was its batteries. It’s as if people forgot that was a