ICE

Rattus375

With inflated electricity rates at fast / superchargers, you really aren't coming out ahead compared to a 40 mpg ICE. I'm paying 9.25 cents a mile with a $3.70 gas price. That's equivalent to paying 32 cents / kWh with a 3.5 mi/kWh average, which is pretty similar to supercharger rates. Where EVs really save money is in daily commuting, where you can plug in at home and get low rates overnight

wearahat03

Who here owns an EV? I read a lot about EVs on reddit 4 years ago at the time Tesla really ramped up their sales. Now it seems people aren't hyped about EVs anymore, and the climate change angle isn't brought into discussions. ICE or hybrid cars are still the most logical option for me in terms of cost and convenience. The overall EV market is growing but the rate is abysmally low compared to what is expected for an industry that's supposed to replace ICE eventually. Ford F series, the best-selling vehicles, 94% buy ICE and only 6% buy the electric model. Tesla mismanaged their branding, but the overall EV market isn't doing them any favors either.

WhatTheHeckCPP

Not sure where GM is in the EC space since I don’t keep up with it, but once EVs hit a majority of sales GM will start losing money. You need to sell a certain amount of cars to turn a profit and cover SG&A and R$D costs. GM has a fairly good chance of going bankrupt in 10 years depending on how fast EVs replace ICE cars and how fast GM adapts.

WhatTheHeckCPP

Not sure where GM is in the EC space since I don’t keep up with it, but once EVs hit a majority of sales GM will start losing money. You need to sell a certain amount of cars to turn a profit and cover SG&A and R$D costs. GM has a fairly good chance of going bankrupt in 10 years depending on how fast EVs replace ICE cars and how fast GM adapts.

GokuYasha

but if you drive the ICE car when it's not winter won't it melt the things i find myself still waiting for are the stock market correction and potential recession. plus the unforeseen election stuff during and afterwards. and all the other unpredictable stuff. which could mean even if i wait and certain stocks go up 10% or more, it'll be worse that i waited for the correction etc. so these are things i'm considering and i might just buy certain stocks i'm more confident in, or do half now, half later. but then i'll also wanna be prepared with money to invest if a recession really does happen lmao

callmecrude

Posted this a few days ago on GMs earnings, but feel like it fits this thread too: GM is probably a great stock to own in the short term, but it’s fascinating watching them throw away their entire future for these short term profits. This was the company that just a few years ago was claiming that they’d surpass Tesla in EV deliveries by 2025. Here we are just a few quarters out and they’re literally 20x behind and the gap has only widened. They’ve walked away from EV partnerships, shelved their autonomous vehicle research, massively delayed or outright cancelled multiple EV manufacturing and battery facilities… They’ve just buried their head in the sand that most of the world is transitioning to electric by 2035 and chosen to squeeze the last drops of demand out of ICE. The market is forward looking, and GM is currently on an identical path to blockbuster and blackberry. They originally talked about building out EV charging. As of last year they completely threw in the towel and adopted Tesla’s EV charge system and supercharger network instead. If you buy a GM EV, you’re most likely going to be supporting and paying royalties to Tesla. They’re not a competitor to Tesla anymore, they’ve failed to innovate and are just hoping to survive going forwards.

MyAccount2024

I owned a Tesla from 2013 until this year. I bought an ICE car which I like well enough. But watching the videos of FSD 12.5 it is mind blowing how close they are to cracking this. Even at this current version my next car will definitely be a Tesla. No one is going to buy a non FSD car every again ... and this is going to happen very soon.

Madison464

Your dad is the exception, all the Trump Magas around me are ICE'stans and wouldn't be caught dead in an EV.

Odd-Bike166

I was the ultimate Tesla bull 2019-2021, then sold all of my stock and now I have a small short position. Tesla is not about selling the product, it's about selling the shares. And Musk has gotten incredibly good at storytelling a vision that people want to believe in, then showing a demo and promising (for 8 years with FSD) that the demo is one step away from the real thing. This was multiplied by 100x when they were the first ones to really make a proper mass-market BEV. The story then became how all the other legacy auto can't make EVs profitable, when in fact they just prefer selling as few of them as possible and selling ICE and PHEVs instead. The story about how hard it is to mass-manufacture BEVs has finally been popped by all the Chinese companies that essentially ate Tesla's lunch and are out-competing it in a price war. So people have took that to mean that, because Elon's company was able to make happen something which looks hard (mass-manufacture cool BEVs) they'll be able to accomplish anything. Including things that are truly hard (maybe impossible?) and where there's true competition - autonomous driving. We are at the point where Musk needs to either deliver on some outlandish project or see the vision he propped up be taken down.

UltraPoss

Your problem stems fundamentally from your short-sightedness, but i don't blame you for it because that's the way 99% of people here and in general view the market. Tesla has a mission that exceeds the number of EVS it sells per quarter, its mission is to create the premises and the fundamentals behind a more sustainable world energetically speaking. Some people deeply understand that a quarter or a few quarters or even a few years of stale or negative growth are nothing in the grand scheme of things, and other don't seem to understand it because they either do not care about tesla's true mission enough or don't know. If you wanna invest somewhere else because it costs you more to block liquidity in tesla for years to come because you think it is not gonna move or it's gonna go even lower, be my guest. A future without EVS is impossible, and we must and this is a physical reality produce as much EVS as possible for a number of years before we can replace the current ICE car market. We also need the physical infrastructure to be able to feed energy to these EVS and to produce them such as they're affordable to the majority of people ideally. Tesla is building all this ecosystem around it as much as they are building EVS and they're trying to come with designs and solutions to all these problems at once, and that takes time. By time i don't mean weeks or quarters or years, but DECADES. Tesla is definitely not just a car maker unless you're blind or don't want to understand what they're doing because you hate Elon or whatnot, and it deserves a premium for all the innovation it is bringing and will bring to the human kind and that's why it trades at a high PE. If you think that in 20 years Tesla will be better than now, i don't understand how you can not invest at this price.

Ok_Run_101

Boston Dynamics already sold at least 1,000 units of Spot ( [source](https://www.strategy-business.com/article/Boston-Dynamics-wants-to-change-the-world-with-its-state-of-the-art-robots) ). It's not a massive number but it is mass production and it is ahead of Tesla. Cruise driven one million REAL driverless miles ( [source](https://www.getcruise.com/news/blog/2023/cruises-safety-record-over-one-million-driverless-miles/) ). Waymo did 7 million ( [source](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/20/24006712/waymo-driverless-million-mile-safety-compare-human) ). All three are way ahead of Tesla in terms of actual deployment and commercialization. Sure Elon succeeded at mass production of the S3XY cars, and that's a big feat, but those aren't exactly moonshot inventions. Multiple commercial EVs existed before Tesla, and the general form factor of the cars were similar to ICE cars (for their first car, the Roadster, they just used the body of an ICE car). Their first radical departure from a "typical" car was the Cybertruck, and we all know how that went down. Reusable rockets are actualy novel inventions though. No dispute on that.

Chromewave9

1) Fundamentals aren't weak. They are the only profitable EV automaker in the world with a $30b cash stack and little to no debt. Other automakers lose billions selling a few thousand EV's. Ford just reported results and loses $44k per EV sold - the same amount they sell EV's for. 2) P/E ratio is such a horrible metric to use. Companies grow in stages. P/E ratio only works when you're comparing mature companies in similar industries. It's a metric highly valuable in 1990's but largely phased out as soon as tech companies burst into the scene. Tech companies take time for R&D to pay off. Often times, losing money for many years (increases P/E ratio) for a payoff in the future. Think companies like Amazon. 3) EV sales are a downward trend in high inflation, high rates, and declining incomes. It's common sense. If you're struggling due to a higher cost-of-living, you're not going to take a chance buying an EV (new technology) and will buy what you know because it's consistent. When these factors reverse, EV's will benefit more than ICE sales. 4) You forgot to mention energy storage, supercharging network, self-driving tech, and robotics. Self-driving tech/robotics, you either believe it will happen or not. These are very difficult products/services because they are revolutionary. So it will take time, R&D, and insane amounts of effort to perfect it. There are lots of YouTube videos for you to make a decision on whether self-driving will happen. I'm betting that it will. Robotics is tricky because Tesla wants to make it a humanoid robot with human actions. I'm not as high as they are on it and think it's better suited as a commercial robot that can replace tedious work in a factory or work environment. 5) The only thing that affects a stock price is what people are willing to pay for it. The low P/E ratio with other automakers has to do with the fact that no one wants to buy those companies. Low growth, highly leveraged debt, and an inability to innovate. Ford's stock price today is the same price it was in 1996. Imagine holding for nearly 30 years and you've made nothing except paltry dividends. 6) The Elon factor is huge. And why wouldn't it be? People hate on him because of his politics but one thing you can't question is his vision and innovative mindset. EV's don't exist without Elon. FACT. What other auto companies are trying to accomplish by having a profitable EV, Elon led Tesla to accomplishing it without having any experience previously working with vehicles. He wanted to buy a rocket from Russia to launch his own space rocket. Russia laughed at him because of his lowball offer. What did he do? Started SpaceX. Last year, they launched the largest space rocket into space in human history. And btw, it's a REUSABLE rocket. People all across the world can now access the internet using Starlink, a product that uses satellites launched into space via SpaceX rockets. It went from doing $1.4 billion in revenue in 2022 to expected revenue of $6.5-7 billion this year. They're securing contracts from cruise and airline companies because it's the best option by far. My point is, whilst I disagree with Elon being as politically involved as he is, the market loves a visionary and innovative individual and no one can deny that he isn't. It's the same reason why Steve Jobs is a notorious dick but you couldn't question his vision for Apple.

WinningWatchlist

A large portion of the valuation of TSLA is based on a massive percentage of US consumers switching over to EV after their current ICE vehicle- we're not seeing that mainly because even the Model 3 is out of reach for the average American. If tariffs protecting and subsidizing the American EV industry didn't exist then BYD

ShadowLiberal

Agreed, I think at lot of people still just don't understand how difficult and expensive the shift to EV's is going to be for the legacy automakers. IMO Ford and GM (and probably some other automakers) are seriously slitting their own throats long term by cutting back on their EV investments in favor of short term profits. Sure growth in the EV segment has slowed for the moment, but that won't last. Consumer demand can shift in favor of EV's a lot faster then Ford and other automakers can shift their lineup from ICE vehicles towards EV's. It takes multiple years for the automakers to bring a brand new car to the market, and if you look at the charts of EV growth YoY you'll see that it can grow a lot in just a few years.

ShadowLiberal

Agreed. I was calling out how the Ford (and GM) hype made no sense several years ago when people were hyping up their EV segments. No one was ever able to give me a straight answer as to why Ford and other automakers shifting their sales from ICE vehicles to EV's would make them more profitable. Everything about how they could make more money in the future (like by shifting to sell software upgrades/subscriptions) can be done just as well in an ICE vehicle as an EV. IMO there's a definite non-zero chance that the market's shift to EV's will end up bankrupting Ford in the long term.

Chromewave9

It'd bad from Ford's perspective because they are not a startup. Rivian and Lucid were. Ford has the personnel, manufacturing plants, and suppliers en masse so their COGS should be lower. The fact is, Tesla worked extremely hard to make their business profitable because they HAD to. It was a matter of life and death for them. For these other automakers, they've been reaping in so much profit from their ICE vehicles that they aren't driven by cost cutting unless they have to. Huge difference in mentality.

Medical_FriedChicken

I agree they would still be the top seller for a time and maybe that run continues if they actually come out with something more affordable, but ICE cars still have a larger market share where these big companies can maintain profits and bring more ev competition online. Didn’t even mention that BYD is going to crush Tesla in global sales in the not to distant future. There are already a lot of Chinese cars in Europe. You also have to think a large driver of ev sales in the US are the rebates. I wouldn’t put a lot money on it myself but I’d make a cheap bet Tesla itself could be in a tough spot once they go (like takeover territory by a traditional car company)

Chromewave9

About 40% of VW's profit and revenue come from China. This is mainly through ICE vehicles - something China is rapidly phasing out from. Because China previously did not have a strong auto manufacturing industry, their rapid increase in EV is tied to China wanting to be a powerhouse in this industry so they can take market share. VW is in serious trouble with this EV transition. Chinese buyers are going to start buying local and with tariffs/trade tensions with Europe imposing on China, China will have no choice but to do the same to European automakers and then Chinese will just buy domestic car brands such as BYD, Xpeng, Nio, Tesla, etc., I'd hate to beat around the bush but EV sales will outpace ICE sales in the near future. It's not an if but when. Very few companies are equipped to handle this transition and stay profitabile. Ford/GM have no chance. Toyota/Hyundai/BYD are the top three outside of Tesla that will continue their dominance.

SoulShatter

> Tesla is already a top seller, if every EV loses the rebates Tesla will still be the top seller Even then it feels shortsighted. Trump/Vance also toyed with ICE subsidies, so with such a regime you could have a market where people just go back to buying ICE cars due to cost, and EV mainly being a separate luxury segment. That'll also slow down charger buildout. Both of those things would affect Teslas sales pretty hard lol

carsonthecarsinogen

ICE sales are consistently falling over time since 2017, this will most likely only accelerate. Tesla would still be a top seller in EVs, Tesla hasn’t grown at all this year and the gap is still a decade apart.

Medical_FriedChicken

I only half agree with the first sentence. Musk said the same thing in the earnings call and I think it’s true that other pure electric companies will struggle more, but the larger and more important players can balance the books with ICE cars while developing and selling better and better electric cars.

artardatron

I want Ford to succeed because I think Farley is fairly intelligent and honest. Unlike Barra at GM promising on EVs, unpromising, then pumping stock afloat with buybacks and gas cars, before she jumps out with a golden parachute. This underlines just how difficult EVs are, to all those who said stuff like legacy auto are experts and therefore succeeding at EVs was inevitable. What has been inevitable is their failure at EVs for last 3-4 years. The reason is that no matter their intent, their corporate structure makes them way too slow to innovate, which makes them unattractive to the level of engineers they seek. They just stagnate and try to hold onto their ICE business, almost looking for a miracle. EVs will undercut their ICE cars, when that happens they are in much more of a world of hurt than today.

Extension-Squirrel63

-the whole market has peaked, it’s not just Tesla -market is pricing in a trump victory, and he explicity said he will not ban ICE in future. People will continue to have the freedom to choose EV or ICE -Summary: tesla will continue growing but not on steroids. It will have standardized returns like the SPY

carsonthecarsinogen

They also lose one ICE sale for each EV sale because they’ve failed to pull in many new customers. Not exactly 1, but more than 0.5 if I had to pull a number out my ass. Basically ford is getting fucked from both ends

sreesid

I would argue that Tesla is a mature automaker. Whether the EV market will boom or bust depends on who wins the election. If Elon's preference wins, good bye EVs. They are proposing cancelling EV tax rebates and instead offering rebates to ICE cars.

Buuuddd

No the cost of charging and maintenance of an EV is very low. Per mile charging is cheaper than fueling ICE cars, and EVs need very little maintenance of internals. No oil changes, motors run basically forever, Tesla batteries are being shown to go 500,000 miles+. If Tesla wants to roll out their own fleet it will be ~$15k to make each compact, and let's say $1k per year per car to cover a parking lot/charging infrastructure. It's absurd to think an uber without needing a driver would have low margin.

insertwittynamethere

I agree, though I will say for the conventional ICE even Kias have come such a long way in design and aesthetic

CouncilmanRickPrime

A Tesla made ICE would somehow be less reliable than the worst Chrysler

ixvst01

Elon sure is smart supporting a campaign that wants to eliminate EV credits, give credits for ICE car purchases, and allow BYD to produce and sell cars in America.

OrlandoEasyDad

It's really in a weird place with owners being highly loyal to it and Musk sending as many signals as he can that he will go out to protect it's price. Tesla's balance sheet looks wobbly after this latest report. If they wanted to release a new model from scratch - a Model 2 or another mainstream model - they'd probably have to go to the market, I would think, to raise capital. Right now I don't think that dilution would do anything too negative to the stock because of owner loyalty. There's lots of Tesla owners who are ripe for a 2nd or 3rd refresh of an earlier model MY or M3, but it's hard to see how that happens without a major refresh of the line. People aren't going to refresh at a big cost for marginal incremental improvements - the difference between an earlier MY and a 2024 or 2025 MY are pretty marginal for the car business that has conditioned owners to expect a model refresh every 4-8 years. There's so much room to run for Tesla from a company perspective, but it's hard to really understand the strategy. The robotaxi business.. who are the customers? Individuals who want to build a robotaxi fleet? Uber/Lyft? Is Tesla going to operate the fleet directly? It's sort of the same story as the CT. There is a product there, but the scale of the market opportunity doesn't seem to justify the vastness of the capital tied to it. If, for example, CT delivers held apace to what was happening at their rollout, they'd be delivering 100,000 units a year. The US light pickup truck market (so like Dodge RAM, Ford F-150, etc) is something like 5M units; and Tesla *could* have been on track to capture a big chunk of that, but it's so hard to imagine the CT, eating, like even 10% of that market which would be a 5X improvement on initial performance. Between price point, features, and the politics of it.. I don't really understand the market strategy. As a work truck, the CT isn't very strong. As an around town truck for light work scenarios (painters, GCs, carpenters, etc), it would do the job by features but it's hard to see a $100K truck making an impact on this market. TLDR, it's really hard to understand what components are building the stock price at Tesla. How much of the stock price is expectations for future growth in the US market, international market, how much is growth for AI applications, how much is growth for robotics? There's no chance for new management to come in based on Musks control of the board, but it's hard not to imagine the company being vastly more profitable under competent re-focused management; a five part re-strategizing would look: 1) Rebuild the moat deeper and wider; more superchargers, more features, more investment here. 2) Commit to a rolling refresh of the MS, MY, M3 and MX so that each model-plate gets a refresh every 4 years. 3) Keep the CT as it is, but release the CTX, which is a conventional looking light truck on the MY chasis, and price it aggressively to take on ICE light trucks and F-150 segment space. 4) Divest robotics, continue investment into FSD, find an institutional partner for the "other bets" in AI. 5) Re-set the scale and operations of the power business, and work hard to cross-sell/up-sell on car buyers. See if you can wrap up packages that include solar (whether tile or conventional), Powerwall, and M3/MY purchases so that you can sell an "energy independence" package at the point of sale for one monthly price tag.

AlpsSad1364

Here's a more likely one: Tesla to sell it's car manufacturing business to Ford by year end. Basically the only value left in tesla is the regulatory credits. These are worth a lot more to an ICE manufacturer than anyone else. Ford can sell 15 ICE cars for every EV it sells: https://www.marketplace.org/2024/02/07/ford-is-losing-money-on-electric-vehicles-but-saving-money-on-emissions-fines/ The EVs are manufactured at a loss so they can sell more ICEs.

Lordoosi

Lol, who buys shitty ICE car in 2024, let alone in few years? But nice to see that you realize that among BEV's there is no competition.

PhotographyBanzai

They need a Model 2 and one that is better than most ICE/hybrid cars. Time to use home grown battery production to its fullest advantage and undercut. Forcefully drop the car market back down to pricing that people can actually afford. None of this will happen, but would be cool to see. I have my doubts the automated taxi idea can be offered any time soon. How many people are open to electric and have 40-60k+ to drop on their cheapest model? Not to mention he alienated the group traditionally open to electric and went buddy buddy with a group that is constantly fed opinion-news information about how electric cars are evil. I see people regurgitate ewwww electric cars and ewwww solar energy rants they don't even realize where they got those opinions from. Sure wasn't from taking the time to research them, lol.

tripping_on_phonics

Maybe so Rivian, but Ford, GM, and others have much more diversified revenue streams, i.e. ICE vehicles.

carsonthecarsinogen

Now factor in debt, cash, the weight of a failing ICE business, and a lot of people still buying Tesla at these prices. There’s your answer

pointme2_profits

There will never be a cheaper Tesla than the 3.nobody is trying to compete in the Sub compact class even in ICE vehicles. There is no money in it. It's a waste of time and resources and would diminish the overall stature of the brand having a 7 second to 60 car that only goes 180 miles on a charge. The cheap Tesla is the 3.

Samjabr

I am not disagreeing that some people won't buy a TSLA for that reason, but I don't think it will have a significant effect on sales. They are still selling a crap ton of cars. And they are still one of the very few (if at all) that make $ on EVs. Unless the world is switching back to ICE, TSLA isn't going anywhere.

35242

No- At least not for vehicles. Maybe technology, but not vehicles. As far as vehicles, the saturation point of "new trendsetters", followed by "first followers" followed by "Innovative switchers" and then "curious participants" will top out at about 10% of the overall vehicle market with gas and electric combined, and perhaps at the most 40-50% of electric vehicles of all brands will be Tesla. Then whatever growth will continue, but at a much slower pace perhaps even trickling down to a replacement purchase by current electric owners. My logic is that anyone wanting to switch to Electric vehicles or namely Tesla, would have done it in the first 20 years. They're likely to replace their electric with an electric, but the switchover from gas to electric will reach a point where it'll meet more and more resistance. I gave it 20 years because some people were/are waiting for the prices to come down a bit, or perhaps even to purchase a used Tesla, which I assume would occur when the vehicle is 3-8 years of age. It's already slowing, and profit margins are dropping. It's no longer the new thing, and Tesla market share isnt converting ICE drivers as quickly as it did when it was a cool new technology and new car.

AnonUserAccount

I was going to buy a Tesla until Elon turned me off to the brand with his idiotic banter. A friend’s Tesla lease was up and he went back to ICE for the same reason. My boss decided to get a VW ID.4 instead of a Model Y because he cannot stand Elon. I know this is purely anecdotal, but maybe others feel the same and that’s why his company is tanking?

Mustatan

That's a **very** sharp decrease in sales from before though, and it's across the world. Obviously some sales will continue due to sheer inertia and word of mouth. But Tesla has seen some of the sharpest year over year sales declines of any car maker, EV or ICE, or hybrid. And this is *despite* the EV market growing substantially, and the trend is now even sharper downward. There's no way to minimize how terrible the Q1 and Q2 TSLA results are, it's just sheer copium to pretend otherwise of it.

BrokerBrody

> They’ve just buried their head in the sand that the world is still transitioning to electric by 2035 and chosen to squeeze the last drops of demand out of ICE. Most legacy automakers will simply not pull off the EV transition. I don’t know if it’s Tesla haters or GM/Toyota/VW/BMW fans but we’ve already seen BlackBerry and Nokia go kaput during the smartphone transition. Long term, most if not all legacy automakers are going out of business. I have no idea what keeps them from modernizing but we have seen the song and dance time and time again and investors should be smarter than this.

GoHuskies1984

The world is not transitioning to EVs by 2035. Other brands are already walking back EV targets and even Europe is admitting the 2035 goal is looking increasingly impossible. Toyota is probably on the money by suggesting the EV market cap in the US could reach around 30%. Hybrid, PHEV, alternative fuels, and regular ICE vehicles will still have a place..

callmecrude

GM is probably a great stock to own in the short term, but it’s fascinating watching them throw away their entire future for these short term profits. This was the company that just a few years ago was claiming that they’d surpass Tesla in EV deliveries by 2025. Here we are just a few quarters out and they’re literally 20x behind and the gap has only widened. They’ve walked away from EV partnerships, shelved their autonomous vehicle research, massively delayed or outright cancelled multiple EV manufacturing and battery facilities… They’ve just buried their head in the sand that the world is still transitioning to electric by 2035 and chosen to squeeze the last drops of demand out of ICE.

Wise-Application-144

You're missing the nuance. My point is people were using them routinely when they were only marginally more expensive than domestic rates. They made sense as a premium product - faster chargers in good locations that cost a little more. So these businesses broke even on the basis of frequent use and steady revenue (which is important for a product with high fixed and marginal costs like these). Now the price of these chargers has gone up \~500% whilst home charging prices haven't changed. And some public chargers are still free. *That's* the problem. There's now a huge spread in prices, and people have choice. That's why cost vs ICE isn't relevant - because EV owners compare different chargers, not one charger versus hypothetical ICE costs. Even if the most expensive charger is still cheaper than ICE, EV owners will still seek the cheapest charger. That's why these guys are in trouble. They're offering a wildly expensive, slower product in a competitive market.

swampwiz

The question of cost of the electrical energy at a charging location vs. at a residence, an employer, or hotel, etc. is not the issue here. Folks are only going to use these locations when they absolutely have to (e.g., on a road trip), and any comparison in cost has to be vs. an ICE engine - and the baseline cost of mobility using electrical power as sourced from, e.g., a residence, is such a fraction of the cost of mobility via ICE that even with the high multiples of cost, it probably still makes economic sense, and certainly it's not a problem for folks that use these charging locations infrequently.

MelNyta

ICE car/truck for 20k Use the remaining 5k to gamble on oil futures

FaZaCon

Ya, well, whatev's. The USA better get off its ass and start making EV's cheaper. China's BYD EV maker is very close to dethroning Tesla in terms of sales, which sells for half the cost of the cheapest Tesla. And guess what, quality and tech is good. China has the USA shitting in its pants right now, and for good reason. EV's will, soon dominate personal transport. Big Oil will take a HUGE hit when EV's are half the vehicles produced, and the petrodollar will be weakening by the day. When EV's are at 70% of all new vehicles made, I bet ICE manufacturing will be abandoned, particularly since the demand for oil will plummet. Though, it makes me wonder what will happen in terms of price for oil. If demand plummets, the price for gas should plummet as well. But would producing oil on a mass scale be profitable for little demand? You'll be seeing a shiton of gas stations closing making it more inconvenient for ICE cars to fuel up, and by that time EV's will have a standard range of 1500 miles, making an EV far more convenient to fuel up since you'll have to charge it up once per month.

Sneaky_Foxxx

I don't think they are almost bankrupt - they have almost 8bill in cash on the balance sheet and are valued about the same as best buy or dicks sporting goods? Their IPO was timed perfectly to raise the most funds but that valuation was unhinged (150b?!) and now they have a leading ICE manufacturer investing heavily in them. I think rivian survives but are just in a trough (just like a huge swathe of companies outside of the Mag 7). 

GME_retard-rocket

TSLA is the largest seller of EVs. People who want EVs will buy Teslas. Other manufactures can concentrate on ICE, hybrid, and new tech that will replace EV like hydrogen.

Financial-Flamingo45

ICE

zxc123zxc123

Hey! Some are also Republicans because they are racist, want to legally fuck/marry their sister while denying lesbians access to marriage, want to stay in the closet about how bearish they are via homophobic speech, feel they really do need assault rifles cause they live in the rural parts of Shasta County where police are miles away, etcetctec. Doesn't really matter the reason why. Important thing is that California isn't a monolith and neither are Californians. I lean left and I know there's a ton of ways Elon is a shithead, but it doesn't mean I have to hate all parts of him or I can't admire his contributions via his companies. I'm a fan how Elon bought out my TWTR shares at the 2022 bottoms but it doesn't mean I think it's a good idea for him to do it (he overpaid and has weak pullout game). Him donating to Trump really pisses me off so I'm rethinking about buying that model 3/Y but it's his money just like how my money is my money. Also I can dislike Elon pulling companies away from California but also understand WHY he does it: higher taxes, lots of regulation, lots of bureaucracy/redtape, etcetcetc. Problem for me is Tesla makes the best EVs, I don't like how Rivians look, and I don't want another ICE engine war so I'm in limbo right now with my purchase (thinking it's better to gamble my money on small caps than buying a car).

LowUnderstanding4184

Oh yeah, the Cybertruck will never touch the ICE f-150 sales - but I guess that just shows those in the market for a truck aren't looking for an EV right now, at least imo, so what's the appeal of the Cybertruck?

AlpsSad1364

Lol, it was like 2000 units.  The ICE f-150 was like 200,000

jlw993

Is Elon supporting Vance clever or regarded 🤔 "Vance is behind the 'Drive American Act', which not only would remove the incentives to buy battery-electric vehicles (BEV and PHEV), but replace it with an equivalent $7,500 incentive to buy American-made fossil fuel-powered vehicles (ICE and HEV)"

BosSF82

perfect summary of the regarded times we live in: "Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, which has the mission of "accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy" is supporting a Senator who introduced the 'Drive America Act', which would not only remove the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles (BEV/PHEV), but it would introduce one for gas-powered vehicles (ICE/HEV). It's hard to believe."

FirstStoptheBleed

J.D. Vance wants to give rebates to ICE driven vehicles and end the rebates for electric vehicles. I wish I could see Elon's reaction to this news.

truckstop_sushi

Fantasy? are you claiming that EV' market demand is dying and not growing in sales? Because that's simply way off. Shifting production to majority EV is the way forward for any auto company that wants to survive in the future. Go look at the streets of China today to see the EV market penetration where more EV's than ICE in the last year, that is where USA will be likely within the next 10 years. Also EV's are nearly just as cheap sometimes cheaper than ICE vehicles (including tax rebate and gas savings).... The 1LT version of GM Equinox about to be released will be $34k, and plenty of EV's in the $30k range from Hyundai, Volvo, Volkswagon and Kia.

Krtxoe

You used a very strong word. You said it was going to be a Fascist government. I want to see proof of that. I don't see anything in this document that suggests either Fascism or "remove any who disagree". Can you show me some specific excerpts that I perhaps missed? So far, I'm seeing really good things in this document, such as these random sections I came across (These are random titles of sections I came across, not necessarily what I think is important or not): In Military: **Value the military family.** **Reduce the number of generals.** In education: **Confronting the Chinese Communist Party’s Influence on Higher Education** In immigration: **Direct ICE to stop ignoring criminal aliens identified through the 287(g) program.** Other: **Commit to U.S. science dominance.** So far I'm seeing things like taking care of veterans, reducing military bloat, stopping the Chinese communist government from controlling our education system, stopping criminal aliens, improving US science etc.....where is the fascist part?? Show me something.

vial_of_boxers

Because they were the first to the scene that actually was able to make it attractive and profitable. All the other legacy auto manufacturers are still continuing to make ICE engines as states continue to pass 2035 EV only laws. They’re the farthest ahead on self driving by far and have millions of their cars on the road worldwide collecting data every minute training their system. They pioneered the EV look and continue to do so with the cybertruck as every other auto company continues to copy 10 steps behind them. They have charging stations all over the country and world being the only EV maker allowing reliable travel across the country, other EV manufacturers are being forced to make bargaining deals to use the tesla charging network. Tesla also has other ventures compared to legacy auto who only has cars. Tesla is setup to control the entire auto industry chain from manufacturing the car, running the FSD software in every personal vehicle, and delivery vehicle, to the charging network, to home energy with their solar roof and battery wall technology. Not to mention other projects such as Optimus which we will continue to see more of as tesla evolves, you’re trying to place the value of the entire company on its cars when in reality that is only one sector and will continue to play less and less of a role as the company develops. I can’t say what will happen in the short time but in 10 years tesla will be a multi trillion dollar company.

perfectdark89

More tin foil hat time: Tesla produces a hybrid electric / ICE vehicle in the next five years, book it

Benjalee04_30_77

1. Turn yourself into ICE under a fake name 2. Get asylum 3. Profit.

whyshw

All EVs are pumping. Ever since VW recently signalled a $5B investment in Rivian. All of sudden everyone remembered ICE engines are on their way out

ElectricalGene6146

They have different routes for their ICE and BEV vehicles

daz1515_future_seer1

Quantumscape breakthroug with VW means it doesnt matter. Americans dont care about climate. Hybrids are cheaper than ICE to maintain by far and prices are dropping fast.

jwrig

Gee, I wonder why the government would want to kick-start a transition away from ICE cars. A loan by the way was paid back early

mr_blockchain_

TSLA DD: The well-off people at my work used to talk about EV's/Teslas a few years back, many bought/leased the car. Now 80% of the Tesla owners have sold their car or ended the lease and are talking about going back to German and Japanese luxury brands w/ ICE engines.

ToastTurtle

I have one full BEV and one ICE. The ICE will be replaced as soon as it is practical with another full EV.

MyAccount2024

I think it is because they look to be on the cusp of solving FSD. I owned a Tesla, just recently got an ICE ... but the moment FSD looks viable I will be getting a Tesla again. The current version of FSD isn't there ... but it sure looks like it is getting very close. I mean once they have that ... no one is buying a non FSD car ever again. And this is aside from Robotaxis.

lcid_fanboy

They told the government to stop ev incentives to sell more ICE and now whining?

OptRider

There's also the SUV which was the top selling luxury segment SUV earlier this year (ICE and EV) and the 4th best selling EV for all price points.

Lost-Practice-5916

Calls on exchange volume even in a crash. Calls on ICE.

ghostofcaseyjones

Controversial, yet boring opinion: ebikes should really be called mopeds. What the Brits and Irish (and probably other places) call a moped is an ICE-powered scooter that doesn't even have pedals, while a ebike has both pedals and a motor, hence moped.

Pocket_Universe_King

Given the customer feedback on the Cybertruck, Rivian is the only decent SUV/Truck EV. The Fiskar Ocean is a train wreck, Toyota frames are still meant for ICEs so the weight feels fucky to drive, and Nissan's pretty much given up the fight. The ICE manufacturers are trying, and failing miserably to make a quality EV, hence why VW made the deal. Traditional manufacturers have an aneurysm just looking at the list of necessary sensors, and trip over their grossly inflamed tongues trying to manage the data chaos and have all the parts work together properly. EVs are a whole ass different beast. It was a smart decision on VWs behalf reaching out to Rivian for the experience and knowledge for their Porsche offering, and it was even smarter on Rivians behalf for getting the process engineering experience that's going to help them shave costs and unnecessary steps to completion. Maybe not this quarter, but next quarter for sure there is going to be dramatic improvements to profitability that have the potential to lift the stock. Not a moonshot, but $25-27 range for sure.

robotiques

Have lucid do jumps like any ICE car and the battery will burst into flames

Josepth_Blowsepth

Mango man is afraid of everything EV. Boats, subs and tanks. You think he is a TSLA fan? Maybe if they put ICE back in over EV

Not_Sarkastic

Wrong on multiple counts. 1. Every automaker knew EVs were both realistic and far superior to ICE in most applications. They were just too deep in the pockets of oil & gas to function independently. 2. Tesla existed long before Musk and all 4 of the original car designs were created without/prior to Musk being CEO. CT is Musk's first auto project at Tesla. Let that sink in and these are stipulated facts. 3. You can argue Musk made Tesla far more marketable and profitable and I will concede, but only for a small period of time (relative to how long Tesla has been in business). The counter facts are that Musk has done far more than any CEO has to alienate prospective buyers from his brand, which Tesla will need to survive in the coming future. 3.b Look at the Koreans and Chinese brands and how they've been about to quietly build a superior EV at a more realistic price point for US buyers. Musk make have scared US automakers into EVs sooner, but only by the slightest margin. Foreign competition was inevitable and US automakers would've had to responded regardless of Tesla. Continue to give Musk undeserved credit all you want, you're just lying to yourself.

Server6

Like junk yards full of ICE cars now? At least the batteries in EV are full of precious metals that someone will want to recycle.

sunsinstudios

Not bad. Tesla stock grew 1,000% in its first 9 years, then another 1,500% the last five years. What's nuts is that it can grow nearly 100% to reach a previous high in 2021--you know when the market topped. You can either say "oh look how much it's fallen, it can fall more!!!", or say "when the Fed cuts rates more people will get car loans and I wonder what they will buy...an EV or ICE?"

x3lr4

The spin-out Porsche AG is the interesting one. They're a leader in EV with the most green patents submitted and accepted over the last few years out of any car company. They're also the co-owners of Rimac and Bugatti. The Rimac Nevera is arguably the best EV on the market and it's the current record holder for almost every performance record a car can have. The Porsche Taycan is the best EV on the market that is mass produced. The hybrid tech that went into the new 911 GTS is what hybrids should have been in the first place. It perfectly fills the performance gaps of the ICE. And we will see this approach maximized in the Bugatti Tourbillon, which will likely smash the performance records of the Nevera and stay at the top until the energy density of batteries improves further. Just the fact they were able to make these hybrids lighter and consume the same amount of fuel or less is a testament to their engineering brilliance. The future is bright. I have the same reservations about the holding btw. The way the Piech and Porsche families cling to power with their special shares that guarantee them minority control of the company is very unappealing.

NightflowerFade

30% efficiency is what one should expect from ICE cars right now. The limitation of battery technology is not round trip energy efficiency

GreenMellowphant

Your first sentence is baseless, the castings are harder to damage than the frame of an equivalent car, save the crumple zones in the pieces that can be replaced in the front. Second, ever heard of redwood materials? I'm pretty sure they have a contract with them. In addition, there aren't enough batteries anywhere near the age they'd need to be to provide reasoning for Tesla to invest in inhouse recycling at large scale. These batteries last a decade and lose less range than the average person's ICE car loses through accumulated inefficiencies. The fact that this is the top comment is why most people on this sub lose consistently and will likely continue to lose.

Only1nDreams

I’ve driven a Model Y for three years. There are issues. Less so with the S/X lines I bet, but the 3/Y are problematic. Suspension is awful, like really bad for the price of the car, and it gets compounded by regen braking. It’s an extremely jerky ride for a luxury price point. The software glitches occasionally, which is frustrating when it’s your entertainment system but panic inducing when it’s also your dashboard. Manufacturing quality is also not what you expect for the price, body panels are out of alignment, bits of the adhesive strips stick out from interior panels, it’s just a mediocre assembly job. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t regret my purchase. It was an absolute delight when I first got it. Driving an EV on a road filled with ICE vehicles is dope. Experimenting with FSD has been cool. I do love how minimal the dash is. It was a great buy when it was really the only solid option for an EV, it’s unfortunately just not worth the money anymore. The rest of the OEMs have caught up, and the Tesla experience has actually declined since I bought it. They’ve become much more stingy with service and perks, and after the dumpster fire of the Cybertruck rollout, it’s clear that the customer just isn’t a priority for them anymore.

GreenMellowphant

Never mind the compounding triple-digit growth rates in energy revenue recognition and earnings. Never mind that their Megapack production will more than double in the next year. Never mind the fact that the CEO just started following the founder of Uber (that was pushed out and sold all his Uber shares). Never mind the selling of all those cars that were in transit last quarter in addition to the entirety of this quarter’s production. Never mind the fact that ICE car sales peaked 6 years ago…I could keep going for a while. If you want to give away your money, do it in a useful way.

badmattwa

ICE bros off consoling themselves, huffing diesel fumes

Chromewave9

This thread is basically just I hate Elon people saying "But why is the stock going up? I hate Elon. Because of that, it should go down." The people with money don't give a shit what ya'll think about Elon. They care about opportunity in the market. This report is all about Tesla showing resilience in a tough EV market. IDK if you guys have been paying attention or not but EV's aren't exactly a hot commodity as much as ICE vehicles in the North American market. Tesla has had to do price cuts and offer many incentives to push sales. Again, this is a strategy shift by Tesla that shows resilience because they operate at a profit. Do you think Ford/VW and other automakers can drop EV prices the way Tesla can when they are already burning billions of $? Another issue is China competition. China's whirlwind economy and no shortage of EV competitors were expected to eat away at Tesla's sales but Tesla just had their best June in China and is keeping up with vehicle deliveries for the year. Coming into this year, Elon had already stated that sales would be roughly the same as year 2023. Again, tough EV market. ICE and Hybrid vehicles are just easier to sell in this environment. People aren't going to want to try something new when their bank account isn't looking as disposable. You hear people talking about Tesla selling fake shit to pump the stock. Look, I'm not a fan of Elon overpromising and underdelivering on new products/services. And you'd have a point if Tesla was the only company he runs. But an even more successful (based on engineering feat) company he runs is SpaceX. SpaceX recently launched the largest space rocket into outer space in human history. Oh, and it's reusable. So all of you guys saying Tesla is selling something fake, just explain to me if SpaceX is also fake. NASA pays SpaceX for transport to space. They sign billion dollar contracts to SpaceX all the time. Not because SpaceX is another pump-and-dump scheme but because no other company can do what SpaceX does. Starlink went from $1 billion in revenue in 2022 and is expected to do $6-7 billion in 2024. They're securing massive contracts with cruise/airline/transporting companies. Again, you'd have a point about Elon being a scammer if SpaceX didn't exist. Unfortunately, SpaceX does exist. It's also the most valuable private company in the world right now with no shortage of investors looking to purchase a stake. Worth over $200 billion. Half of Elon's networth is actually from SpaceX. So the guy is clearly doing something right. Not a single sane person is investing into Tesla because it's just a car business. That's what YOU are treating it as. That's like saying people invested into Amazon in 2017 because of their e-commerce store. No, what people were investing into was Amazon collecting the data and now becoming an advertising giant and their AWS cloud - two things investors in 2015 probably never expected. A significant part of investing in tech companies is to allow the innovation to grow and materialize. That can take many years. I sure as hell would not invest in Tesla if all they did was did and plan on doing was to sell vehicles. The auto business is low growth, low margin, and very capital-intensive. It seems like Elon realized this very early on and shifted his focus. That's why Tesla went from Tesla Motors to Tesla - because Elon didn't want Tesla to just be an auto company. Lastly, I'll just say this, way smarter people than any of us are tasked with evaluating Tesla for their firm and fund. I guarantee you these people are NOT evaluating Tesla solely as a car company. They are betting on Tesla and they have billons of $ on the line. They are doing their due diligence. The only people who are treating Tesla as a car company are the very same people who would have never invested in Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Meta, etc., in the earlier days before they became behemoths and are now saying these are the absolute best investments to make in the market. And then there are people who dislike Elon politically and that basically means they will never support an Elon-product. If that's you, I completely understand. But we're here to make money so don't let your emotions cloud reality and make logical-based arguments.

ProtoplanetaryNebula

The Chinese EV market is booming right now, it's not so much the sales that are the problem, it's the margins. One of the reasons the market is booming is there is a lot of internal competition which resulted in a price war which made EVs a much better proposition. EVs have steadily taken market share away from ICE cars. In the process, Tesla's margin per vehicle has eroded substantially.

NotArtificial

The devil works hard. But ICE car manufacturers with their Asian Bot farms spreading FUD on Reddit and elsewhere to try and survive a bit longer until they are irrelevant work harder.

Aix_xpert

I fear Rivian is a victim of the politicization of climate change and of EVs as the solution. A third of the US population is completely uninterested in buying an EV now simply for that reason. Which means the transition to EVs from ICE cars will be much slower than the original estimates projected. This is why you've seen basically every major automaker pivot to hybrids, which will just slow down the EV conversion rate even further. At a slowed down conversion rate, I don't think Rivian will generate enough sales and revenue to survive as anything other than a debt-laden zombie company by the time their EVs are profitable.

AccidentallyBacon

I was thinking long for the new ICE border camps we'll need, but the nurses angle is truly some big brain thinking, nice!! might need to re-think $BIRK and SBUX too now that you mention

swanie02

I've talked to some that can't even make a trip "up north" in their EV and they went back to ICE at the first opportunity.

Lumpynifkin

Went to a Tesla dealership near me at the end of May when they had the 1% finance deal. Place was bumping. Cars were literally flying off the lot. Friend had a 5:00 appointment and wanted to put a big ribbon on the car. We went at 3:00 and they said his car was still in the secondary lot because there were too many appointments before him. Probably 10-15 cars in the main lot ready for their appointment. This is in NJ where there is no sales tax on EV so they are almost same price as ICE. Might be different for other states. May delivery number is going to be huge.

gnocchicotti

>All EV are struggling and TSLA is struggling the least, and are keeping a pretty impressive amount of market share while others are losing money. Hot take: there is no "EV market" and "ICE market." Ford can't make money selling EVs but guess what they couldn't make money selling gas powered sedans either. They don't fuckin care because they're raking in cash with $80k F-150s. Toyota is probably the healthiest company from pricing power and inventory and they're the farthest behind in the EV segment. TSLA is farthest ahead in having a sustainable EV business but there's approximately zero possibility that the regulatory environment forces ICE to go away as fast was previously predicted. GM said EV only by 2035? Technically possible, yes, but US gov won't force that if people don't want it. Add a gas tax and EVs will sell like hotcakes, but that would be political suicide.

Battered_Grit

and lack of heat signature. Advantageous tactically, compated to ICE

spaurake

A recent McKinsey consumer pulse survey also found that 46% of Americans who own EVs are considering going back to ICE vehicles, a surprising stat given the overall global percentage was 29%.

spaurake

Automakers have typically said that EVs are generally less problematic and require fewer repairs than ICE vehicles because they have a smaller number of parts and systems. However, J.D. Power's study with newly incorporated repair data shows EVs, as well as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), require more repairs than gas-powered vehicles in all repair categories.

Caspi7

No one is backing off ev's, they are selling more of them every year. Growth is just lower than anticipated 5 years ago, so manufacturers are extending their ICE offerings.

kupka316

I really believe it's no one. ICE isn't going anywhere and people aren't buying the EVs. Just look at their sales numbers.

Battered_Grit

Like every ICE vehicle?

tnatov

Nobody, they don't need batteries anymore - back to ICE.

FaZaCon

> lol why would a car company hit 295 bucks . At 100 dollars it will be more valuable than ford and gm combined . Why would a video card maker hit a 3 trillion marketcap who has revenue 5X less than Apple? Rivian IPO'd at $78 and hit an ATH of $130. Not saying it will happen again anytime soon, but if Tesla can hit $350 there's no reason Rivian can't do the same. Though if it does happen, they'll have to be outputting a million cars per year with strong demand, and that would be at least 6-8 years away, if it does happen. EV's are the future. Once battery tech hits a standard 1300 mile range on a single charge, manufacturing ICE vehicles will be completely abandoned.