Reddit Posts
Homebuilder sentiment goes negative for the first time in 7 months, thanks to higher mortgage rates
Shorting residential home builders because of high mortgage rates. How it is going?
Why are residential construction stocks like $LEN and $DHI shooting up?
They say there is housing shortage. They say home builders will only go up. $DHI $LEN $PHM $KBH
Earnings for the Week of June 20, 2022
What is the common factor of all the S&P 500 stocks that are crashing? AMZN PYPL NFLX etc
Any tips on how to recover when you are down 35%+ on your capital? And feel as if it could take years before you ever return to break even.
I've heard from multiple sources that new home construction is going to be hit hard this year, what are some ways this can be played?
U.S. home builders less optimistic due to high inflation and supply woes
Lennar earnings are probably going to break records, but it’s not without risk of outside factors.
[DD] $LEN - earnings run-up play for a non-meme WSBer
Enough with the techno mumbo jumbo A Fundamentalist Analysis of UWMC - Why I'm doubling Down
Mentions
Calls on LEN are cheap. Look at their core strategy. As long as they make eps, with a competent guidance, assured by Bufet's investment. Could be solid.
What about LEN? puts?
No one talking about Lennar and the administration housing pump? Mortgage rates dropping. I am goin calls LEN$
How's that? I'm looking at put action right now for oct on LEN
LEN being already interest cut sensitive could really benefit if we turn bullish next week.
what we think of LEN
More importantly, I assume your holding $LEN. What is your prediction based on earnings next week and rate cuts? You see LEN in $160s or $120s?
I have DE, LEN, HD & KRE puts open right now. If you’re somewhat bearish on *parts* of the economy, these are very good choices. Deere - holder of many souring loans, impacted badly by tariff policy on both ends of supply/demand, impacted poorly by immigration policy as well, a traditional cyclical that now looks materially weaker than rival (CAT) and simply trades at a huge premium for no reason. Lennar - it’s simply the weakest looking home builder in a crashing housing market. It’s impacted poorly by policy. They gave up margin to keep sales flowing. Execs *HAVE NOT* sold shares. Pretty much the only ticker related to housing where execs have not dumped. I think, under the hood, it could be so bad that that’s the reason they have not dumped. Home Depot - trades too high, impacted poorly by admin policy, housing crashing. This one is the biggest softball of bunch for just an immediate and quick 10-15% pullback. KRE - regional banks are extremely fragile and have been pumping for no reason. PNC had to swoop in and pick up a FAILING BANK over the weekend. While Home Depot is the most obvious for what you see on the surface.. regionals is the most obvious if you’ve deep dived how bad those CRE and re-performing loans look 👀 Now we know we’re seeing less workers. Their books look worse and worse every day. If you want financials/bank exposure in your port, there is literally not one reason to own a regional except for the fact you might drive pass the logo on your daily commute. Shit is bad bad 👀 These and other hyper-inflated NON-TECH stonks are the tickers that need to come down the most if we are to avoid some larger, broader collapse in the coming months.
I believe I own all of the OI on my LEN Jan puts 🤣
I picked up some selective puts at EOD (LEN, DE, KRE, HD) Am I fucked? 🤔
I'm just joking around. Have been watching OPEN since LEN bought a piece of it in 2018 and trading it since it went public in 2020. 😬
DHI calls, LEN calls, RKT calls, FMCC calls. Eyeballing CWST and EXE for further pullback. But my outlook overall is CALLS on those two as well
Home builders are breaking out lately, even Buffett increased hi position in. $LEN and another I think $KBH
The gain is what matters. Good job. Lot of people were delusional and thought Buffet wouldn’t buy UNH, but UNH and LEN fit his profile perfectly. I went with LEN.
Lost in all the UNH news Jimmy Buffett also bought LEN load up on teal estate sticks
Berkshire Hathaway adds [$UNH](https://x.com/search?q=%24UNH&src=cashtag_click), [$NUE](https://x.com/search?q=%24NUE&src=cashtag_click), [$LEN](https://x.com/search?q=%24LEN&src=cashtag_click), [$DHI](https://x.com/search?q=%24DHI&src=cashtag_click), [$LAMR](https://x.com/search?q=%24LAMR&src=cashtag_click) in Q2. UNH belongs to those tickers.
UnitedHealth, $UNH - Nucor, $NUE - Lennar, $LEN - DR Horton, $DHI - Lamar, $LAMR - Allegion, $ALLE Cut Apple
Warren initiated positions in DHI, LEN, NUE, LAMR, and ALLE, as well as UNH, last quarter.
Buffet picks UnitedHealth, $UNH - Nucor, $NUE - Lennar, $LEN - DR Horton, $DHI - Lamar, $LAMR - Allegion, $ALLE
Homebuilders might benefit as well with lumber tariffs, etc. (I do own LEN and DHI.)
This is a list of companies where EV>Market Cap. Go, make a killing! Symbol | Company Name | Security Price | EV/MC | Enterprise Value | Market Capitalization ---|---|----|----|----|---- LEN/B | Lennar Corp | 108.79 | 909% | 32,177,698,690.00 | 3,540,000,000.00 CZR | Caesars Entertainment Inc | 28.66 | 490% | 30,436,440,000.00 | 6,210,000,000.00 CAR | Avis Budget Group Inc | 207.55 | 453% | 33,092,648,000.00 | 7,300,000,000.00 AAL | American Airlines Group Inc | 11.46 | 441% | 36,849,219,080.00 | 8,360,000,000.00 SATS | EchoStar Corp | 29.84 | 392% | 33,330,229,100.00 | 8,510,000,000.00 AES | AES Corp (The) | 13.8 | 389% | 38,552,997,520.00 | 9,920,000,000.00 MGM | MGM Resorts International | 37.36 | 385% | 40,117,559,830.00 | 10,430,000,000.00 WBA | Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc | 11.59 | 383% | 38,180,802,120.00 | 9,980,000,000.00 F | Ford Motor Co | 11.26 | 371% | 167,810,127,620.00 | 45,250,000,000.00 RCI | Rogers Communications Inc | 34.46 | 345% | 51,214,852,120.00 | 14,840,000,000.00 GM | General Motors Co | 52.34 | 312% | 157,715,580,000.00 | 50,580,000,000.00 EIX | Edison International | 51.42 | 309% | 62,125,157,200.00 | 20,120,000,000.00 BN | Brookfield Corp | 67.45 | 307% | 342,558,066,800.00 | 111,760,000,000.00 PCG | PG&E Corp | 13.85 | 297% | 89,567,215,050.00 | 30,170,000,000.00 GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc (The) | 719.18 | 288% | 633,928,592,000.00 | 220,160,000,000.00 JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc | 57.03 | 282% | 33,134,446,880.00 | 11,770,000,000.00 CHTR | Charter Communications Inc | 380 | 274% | 150,571,312,040.00 | 54,990,000,000.00 HEI | HEICO Corp | 320.4 | 264% | 46,747,070,480.00 | 17,700,000,000.00 MS | Morgan Stanley | 142.5 | 248% | 564,318,580,000.00 | 227,250,000,000.00 FOXA | Fox Corp | 56.27 | 238% | 28,734,163,210.00 | 12,090,000,000.00 BNS | The Bank of Nova Scotia | 56.71 | 231% | 163,145,082,770.00 | 70,660,000,000.00 BCE | BCE Inc. | 24.43 | 228% | 51,757,099,000.00 | 22,680,000,000.00 ES | Eversource Energy | 66.41 | 221% | 53,857,137,590.00 | 24,380,000,000.00 CM | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | 73.76 | 217% | 150,074,178,300.00 | 69,190,000,000.00 GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 193.2 | 215% | 2,260,974,050,000.00 | 1,050,000,000,000.00 EXC | Exelon Corp | 43.735 | 206% | 90,592,677,150.00 | 43,900,000,000.00 EMA | Emera Inc | 46.65 | 205% | 28,684,163,100.00 | 13,960,000,000.00 FE | FirstEnergy Corp. | 41.4 | 204% | 48,396,055,640.00 | 23,770,000,000.00 WBD | WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC | 13.5 | 201% | 66,332,630,000.00 | 32,930,000,000.00 FTS | Fortis Inc | 49.06 | 201% | 49,279,126,900.00 | 24,560,000,000.00 DUK | Duke Energy Corp | 119.75 | 195% | 180,799,270,000.00 | 92,890,000,000.00 VZ | Verizon Communications Inc | 43.08 | 192% | 347,069,440,000.00 | 180,620,000,000.00 D | Dominion Energy Inc | 58.75 | 190% | 94,338,370,000.00 | 49,680,000,000.00 EVRG | Evergy Inc | 69.77 | 190% | 30,353,911,750.00 | 16,000,000,000.00 TRP | TC Energy Corp | 47.57 | 187% | 93,722,828,400.00 | 50,030,000,000.00 CVS | CVS Health Corp | 58.75 | 187% | 146,548,700,000.00 | 78,240,000,000.00 CCL | Carnival Corporation & Plc | 29.78 | 186% | 66,832,880,000.00 | 35,890,000,000.00 CNP | CenterPoint Energy Inc. | 37.84 | 184% | 44,517,226,240.00 | 24,230,000,000.00 DTE | DTE Energy Co | 139.02 | 181% | 52,019,485,720.00 | 28,670,000,000.00 AEP | American Electric Power Co Inc | 108.97 | 180% | 104,625,251,110.00 | 58,150,000,000.00 TU | TELUS Corp | 16.52 | 180% | 45,358,323,400.00 | 25,250,000,000.00 CMS | CMS Energy Corp | 72.89 | 179% | 39,053,399,000.00 | 21,800,000,000.00 GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 192.17 | 177% | 2,245,415,650,000.00 | 1,270,000,000,000.00 ENB | Enbridge Inc | 45.46 | 176% | 174,407,960,700.00 | 99,160,000,000.00 HEI/A | HEICO Corp | 251.49 | 175% | 37,177,816,080.00 | 21,240,000,000.00 DOW | Dow Inc | 25.07 | 175% | 37,493,398,940.00 | 21,470,000,000.00 XEL | Xcel Energy Inc. | 72.78 | 175% | 73,002,657,500.00 | 41,820,000,000.00 NI | NiSource Inc | 41.9 | 174% | 34,201,464,420.00 | 19,620,000,000.00 VG | Venture Global Inc | 14.46 | 174% | 62,221,200,000.00 | 35,720,000,000.00 AEE | Ameren Corporation | 100.04 | 173% | 46,697,376,000.00 | 27,010,000,000.00 ETR | Entergy corporation | 88.15 | 172% | 67,687,869,880.00 | 39,330,000,000.00 SRE | Sempra | 80.46 | 171% | 88,527,009,400.00 | 51,770,000,000.00 ED | Consolidated Edison Inc. | 102.05 | 170% | 62,774,000,000.00 | 36,950,000,000.00 T | AT&T Inc | 27.92 | 168% | 336,290,845,500.00 | 199,680,000,000.00 OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 44.63 | 168% | 73,511,702,000.00 | 43,730,000,000.00 CMCSA | Comcast Corp | 35.37 | 168% | 224,510,389,630.00 | 133,630,000,000.00 GPN | Global Payments Inc | 83.05 | 168% | 34,360,400,800.00 | 20,460,000,000.00 C | Citigroup Inc | 95.39 | 168% | 296,543,991,000.00 | 176,710,000,000.00 DG | Dollar General Corporation | 107.75 | 167% | 40,208,005,840.00 | 24,040,000,000.00 SO | Southern Co (The) | 95 | 165% | 172,346,102,150.00 | 104,550,000,000.00 QSR | Restaurant Brands International Inc | 70.02 | 164% | 38,325,527,060.00 | 23,310,000,000.00 PPL | PPL Corp | 36.58 | 163% | 43,913,518,340.00 | 26,970,000,000.00 OKE | ONEOK Inc | 82.01 | 163% | 82,912,287,090.00 | 51,010,000,000.00 WEC | WEC Energy Group Inc | 109.54 | 159% | 55,256,080,020.00 | 34,800,000,000.00 UAL | United Airlines Holdings Inc | 89.73 | 159% | 46,443,414,860.00 | 29,280,000,000.00 NEE | NextEra Energy Inc | 71.97 | 158% | 237,064,380,000.00 | 149,910,000,000.00 FDX | FedEx Corp. | 236.51 | 158% | 88,422,329,600.00 | 56,120,000,000.00 UBS | UBS Group AG | 38.21 | 156% | 199,079,508,960.00 | 127,410,000,000.00 KHC | The Kraft Heinz Co | 28.78 | 155% | 53,222,600,000.00 | 34,250,000,000.00 SBAC | SBA Communications Corp | 235.12 | 155% | 39,508,700,480.00 | 25,460,000,000.00 KMI | Kinder Morgan Inc. | 27.42 | 154% | 92,035,643,080.00 | 59,570,000,000.00 HCA | HCA Healthcare Inc | 341.48 | 154% | 131,097,712,850.00 | 84,990,000,000.00 SW | Smurfit Westrock Plc | 48.03 | 154% | 38,377,815,990.00 | 24,960,000,000.00 GIS | General Mills Inc. | 50.95 | 154% | 42,739,348,000.00 | 27,810,000,000.00 MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | 171.31 | 153% | 83,184,860,000.00 | 54,540,000,000.00 PEG | Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | 86.93 | 152% | 65,887,330,000.00 | 43,250,000,000.00 AWK | American Water Works Company Inc | 140.51 | 152% | 42,045,160,680.00 | 27,670,000,000.00 LYB | LyondellBasell Industries NV | 60.7 | 150% | 32,502,362,900.00 | 21,600,000,000.00
Jesus your predictions suck....you are literally a list of horrible predictions that won't happen. Lets see: * 9 month ago you said [RDDT was going to tank](https://www.reddit.com/r/growth_investing/comments/1gfz7e1/reddit_looks_like_its_going_to_tank/)....its up 87% * 9 months ago you predicted gold reaching [$4000 was highly likely](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1gh95em/barrick_and_newmont_signaling_local_top_in_gold/) * then you predicted gold would not....... * 9 months ago you claimed that 10 years of trading, Gold would: * [Top out at $3,000](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1gl4aww/goldoz_down_as_predicted/) * Enter a 10 year bear market * Gold was trading at close to 2700 $/oz....it's now trading at $3,339 $/oz today * 9 months ago you made a call to [buy LEN trading at around $173](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1gl4mf6/bought_more_len_lennar_at_these_levels/)..... 37% loss * It trades at $109 today * during October it hit a high of $180 and a low of $160. No matter where you bought it that month you would have lost money on your prediction * 9 months ago you made a call that [Boeing would reach $130 per share](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1ghcz9q/boeing_is_going_to_130_or_less/). * Boeing Trades at $230 a share today * ChatGPT says this "October 2024 through July 2025), Boeing has remained **well above $130/share**, even at its lowest during that span"
If its still owned by Lennar, I'd buy LEN calls before I'd buy this POS.
Started a position in LEN, DHI, and NAIL last week. Might be a bit early but I think the 2nd half of this year they should do well.
You want to further short the housing market? How low you think it’s going? I am more likely going other way. HD, Lowe’s and TOL or LEN. BLDR also. As for number 3, I am taking opposite side of trade. I also don’t think tariffs end up being the impact people think. Where is the early evidence of that?
Lennar (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI): May see a rush in demand before energy-efficient new home credits expire mid-2026.
Ah fuk it. PLTR and UNH calls it is. Kicking myself for dumping my LEN puts yesterday. Would have made serious 💰 today.
Ah yes. I knew the CFO at Beacon. POS company. Ima buy poots on some of the smaller builders, who will be good short targets: MTH, KBH. But DHI and LEN have more liquid weeklies. They'll move on weakening economic reports, already starting. Don't wait too long.
What a week, so far. Took nice gains from $APPS calls & $LEN puts - to pump it on $ACN calls. *It's either Steak or Ramen!*
LEN just IV-fucking everyone but theta gang.
Who bought LEN calls? Time to head over to r/Ferrari to pick out something with all those juicy gains
LEN completely flat to fuck all straddle holders
Threw a random LEN call in there. Guess it hit after 7 earnings in a row down. Hopefully it holds
Looks like numbers were solid, you playing LEN?
LEN earnings is apparently tomorrow(it was never confirmed for today, just guessed)
Also the tickr is LEN.
I got LEN puts and APPS calls. Inverse me to make $$$.
LEN 100p for earnings today
LEN has been down the last 7 earnings. wtf
NAIL poots for LEN earnings ah
Yes. Heard through the grapevine that the housing market was improving. This is my DD. Bought calls on LEN.
Monday earnings calls for: LEN, RNW, LU, AIOT, APPS, EBF, HITI, QMCO, RFIL
Prompt >Calls or puts? ChatGPT: >**Monday, June 16** >**Calls**: Lennar (LEN) earnings after market. >**Puts**: Watch for weakness warnings from Lennar, possible downside pressure. >**Tuesday, June 17** >**Calls**: Jabil (JBL), John Wiley & Sons (WLY), La-Z-Boy (LZB) earnings. Potential upside if reports beat expectations. >**Puts**: Caution on retail sales and homebuilder confidence data—negative data may push puts. >**Wednesday, June 18** >**Calls**: GMS earnings. Positive surprise could drive calls. >**Puts**: FOMC interest rate decision expected to hold steady. Any dovish tone might reduce puts; hawkish tone could increase puts. >Watch initial jobless claims for downside surprises impacting puts. >**Thursday, June 19** >Market closed for Juneteenth holiday — no trading. >**Friday, June 20** >**Calls**: Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI), CarMax (KMX) earnings. Positive earnings could trigger calls. >**Puts**: Previous quarters saw lower-than-expected profits from Accenture and CarMax, so puts may be active if similar results. >**Sunday, June 22** >Tesla (TSLA) robotaxi rollout update — possible catalyst for calls if positive.
Stock pick. Small and mid caps are still at like 6yr lows. Maybe sell TSLA and buy WHR, PFE, SWK, LEN, DOW or something wayyy oversold?
LEN prolly drop back below $103 after earnings next week, after weak spring selling season and marktomarket losses on OPEN holdings. LEN 103p 06/20
this is for next week but i’m lowkey thinking $LEN calls are gonna eat
Rally anything related to home builders, appliances, etc. Toll Bros gave a pretty up beat guide. HD, WHR, LEN... All of that
That’s why I’m a big buyer of Lennar and Flour right now (LEN / FLR)tickers
The move now is stuff that really benefits from lower rates. Home builders (LEN, XHB if you like etfs), big dividend daddies, bonds, other boomer shit
Home builders like LEN and DFH are very cheap right now in my opinion. DELL and GOOG are super cheap. AXON is still expensive but I think it’s a great long term buy. There almost certainly will be more volatility in the upcoming months and we might not be close to the bottom but it’s never a bad idea to slowly start dollar cost averaging into the market if you are in it for the long run and can stomach the ups and downs.
Short: * real estate ETFs * on homebuilders – LEN, DHI, PHM etc * REITs – Especially office or residential ones * home goods/furniture stocks – wayfair, RH etc (although RH already got hit very hard)
KBH, LEN, DHI, TOL and XHB all going to feel pain
Load up puts on home builders KBH, LEN, TOL, DHI
That’s fire man congratulations. Keep the gains locked up and keep it going . I jsut dropped 20k into a bunch of home builder stocks ITB NAIL LEN PHG In some investment accounts that will sit for ever haha and just started buying Tesla lol But imma go deep if Tesla hits some low number with these ppl going wild I hope some ppl send the stocks down even more lollll I will drop ridiculous sums of money into Tesla if it goes into hundreds or lower and retains its earnings hahah Might get short some S&P and fuck around in futures a bit with like 5k I was debating too
Home builder stocks like KBH, LEN and TOL are about to take a brutal beating
Calls on MU. Puts on NKE, FDX, PF, & LEN.
All economic indicators (shitty housing starts, declining home sales, 6% drop in mortgage applications) would indicate earnings should miss, LEN missed and guided down, plus BLDR which is a mini-HD reported earnings last week and missed and guided down. I think we are entering that late stage in the bull market where bad news is bad news again.
Looking at his history he was buying LEN and DHI. Some Homebuilding companies. All while mortgage rates are at the highest point since the 80s... OP is fucking brilliant.
$LEN Q4 EPS $4.03, consensus $4.12 Q4 revenue $9.9B, consensus $10.11B Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of Lennar, said, "In the course of our fourth quarter, the housing market that appeared to be improving as the Fed cut short-term interest rates, proved to be far more challenging as mortgage rates rose almost 100 basis points through the quarter. Even while demand remained strong, and the chronic supply shortage continued to drive the market, our results were driven by affordability limitations from higher interest rates."
He just said LEN puts are the play.
Coming from someone with an extensive portfolio (thousands of equities spread across multiple accounts) I can tell you my management companies are designed to focus on sectors of the market, and they all have different strategies depending on their goals. Some manage just large cap stocks, others mid caps, another my internationals for instance. For instance my "income" account is about 30 solid large cap funds that always produce. They do not trade from this account. It is just "buy & hold" for the long term as opposed to... Another one of my accounts which is managed on a day to day basis with active trades daily. Most equities hold 5 and 6 figures of value (Like NVDIA, MS, APPL, URI, TSM, DHI, LEN, CAT, GS, PLTR for my top 10) some others only a few thousand, but there a lot of them. Depending on the managers strategy they determine what needs to be adjusted. For instance: every time my NVDIA hits $100k we peel some off of the top and reinvest it to rebalance the portfolio. This is not a "normal" account that most ppl would have but it was started in the 1980s and has diversified to the point where PE is now my hedge against stocks & bonds.
Jim Cramer said LEN may face challenges. So calls?
Was long Boeing thinking I got a discount around $350. Largest single position I’d ever opened. Was saved by trailing stops on the way down. Ugly couple days. Was able to use that liquidity and picked a few winners. UCO @ 8$. UAL @ $32. DKNG below $15. Had a RUN position and AMAT. From up 26% to down 80 something % and ended the year up 280%. Wild ride. Was a year out of school then. Bought myself a nice car stuck the rest away and didn’t trade for 3 years. Didn’t have the time. Just started dabbling again. Shorting builders for a few months now. Tough go for a while there but green now and ahead of the indexes the past few months. LEN DHI CCS HOV
Calls: RCAT & MU; Puts: LEN & NKE
Fed interest rate gonna determine how LEN moves
LEN 01/17/25 130P @ +/- .75 - .86 seems like either a smart move or a dumb one... They build houses and nobody can afford to buy, let alone build a new construction.
$DHI builds "affordable" homes in rural/low-income areas (West Virginia, Rural Kentucky, Rural Virginia, etc). You can't really compare them to the area/homes that $TOL is building. $LEN is also mixing it up too much with low-income area. $TOL is almost exclusive to high-income, luxury home building. Your points are certainly valid, but I don't think we'll see the same sort of guidance with those as we'll see with $TOL.
Idk. DHI and LEN missed their last earnings. DHI dropped 20% since Oct earnings.
Will the LEN's and DHI's have to pay more for labor now? Will the cost of building a house go up now? Will profits at the big builders plunge?
Still lots of money to be made shorting residential real estate related stocks, LEN, HD, Z, OPEN. RKT, UWM, DRH, TOLL
And you’re all forgetting the effects of inflation. Tariffs are inflationary. Full stop. The bond market is already throwing fits. If it looks like trump gets to do tariffs and deportations, we’ll see a sell-off of anything rate-sensitive. Look at housing stocks today like DHI and LEN
POOTS on $ZEL $LEN $SKY 
Homebuilders: Lennar, DR Horton, NVR | Ticker | Percent | ipoDate | TotalReturn10K | Years | CAGR | |--------|-------------|-----------|----------------|----------|---------| | LEN | 54028.021602| 1980-03-17| 5412802.0 | 44.607803| 0.151534| | NVR | 39836.782788| 1985-07-22| 3993678.0 | 39.260780| 0.164820| | DHI | 15843.112041| 1992-06-05| 1594311.0 | 32.388775| 0.169511|
Housing starts will move DHI, LEN, NVR, MTH, KBR, and mybpersonal fav: NAIL.
Short catastrophic insurance bonds. Buy building supply (HD, LOW, WMT) and home builders (TOL, PHM, DHI, LEN). Florida produces a lot of citrus and sugar, perhaps those get disrupted.
It’s hard to see the Fed cutting rates below 3% in 2025, given the current economic factors you mentioned. With unemployment stabilizing and oil prices uncertain, along with the potential for inflationary pressure from geopolitical issues, the Fed might be cautious about making deep rate cuts. This environment could favor companies that benefit from higher rates, like payment systems (e.g., PAYO, WISE.LSE). On the other hand, some retail construction companies with strong fundamentals, like LEN and MHO, might still be attractive investments even if rates stay elevated.
Because the current homebuilders are not dumb. LEN, DHI, TOL, etc all don't over build. They know when rates are high, don't build as much or at all. They are all priced around 10-12 PE like banks/financials. They are producing a lot of FCF and doing buy backs. Honestly been trading them and making money, never short.
LEN went down, KBH could do the opposite
anyone able to make sense of the LEN earnings? Looks pretty solid and move has been all over the place
I'm thinking calls too and also $LEN, never heard of them but they do home building and loans and since the fed just cut rates then they're going to be going up regardless 
I hope LEN can revise their guidance in time for a tidal wave of homes.
I posted this in another sub, but, a little over a year ago Buffet/Berkshire bought 3 "smallish" home builders: LEN, DHI, NVR. When he did, I also bought and this is my return so far not including dividends: LEN 57% DHI 65% NVR 55% Buffet always says you should only buy 1 or 2 stocks when you're small as to not dilute your returns. So, had he put a million into any of those 3 it would have yielded 50% or more. So, yes, I think he could do it. Buffet also says that when you're smaller you can look for mosquitoes instead of elephants. It's a lot "easier" to double your investment on a $ 50 million company than a Trillion dollar company. But, if you don't know what you're doing (and sometimes even if you do) it's also very easy to lose it all.
Dude on CNBC says buy LEN because Harris proposal to give poor folks $25,000 will boost home ownership - do these people really have degrees in economics? Isn't it illegal to be that stupid and offer advice on a financial channel?
Not to get political, but you have to hand it to both parties. Everyone kind of knows that housing is turning into some kind of neo-fuedalism but they get people to argue about comparatively dumb shit instead of the one issue that is the most impactful to peoples' quality of life, not only in disposable income but also people being vested in their neighborhoods. Probably would need another Black Death to stop the momentum now. So calls on LEN I guess.
Bought some VZ and LEN for a swing trade.
Look at the weekly charts of the last three years for these stocks: CVX, XOM, NVDA, NFLX, META, QCOM, PHM, MTH, LEN. The secret is the ten week moving average, or if you will the 50 day simple moving average. Slow down and sort it out. Look at the TSLA move from 183 to 220+. Did not happen until it held the 50 day.
Citi downgraded the largest national home builders LEN DHI. Lumber sales way down, pwrmits and starts at 3 year lows. Recession incoming.
Ya, I'm buy a shit ton of 2026 calls on $LEN. If rates go down, more people will want to finance a brand new house rather than buy some shitty 1980s build.
LEN 150c 6/28 at close.
Completely agreed. LEN is almost reaching its intrinsic value of $130ish. Might be a good play to wait for a margin is safety of 15% and roll in the profits after the rate cuts.
Just a suggestion on how to improve your pursuit of quantitatively predicting earnings... Maybe try finding a company where there's an underlying driver that you can apply statistical analysis to. If it was LEN, then a statistical model that takes into account housing starts, interest rates, job market, etc. Then you can you use that statistical model to imply revenue growth. Simple fixed vs. variable cost modeling should be sufficient to bring that revenue growth perspective down to an EPS estimate. With an underlying driver, you should be able to work with a larger data set and not have to worry so much about one-time items muddying the analysis. Working with corporate earnings is tough cause of corporate actions (divestitures, acquisitions, restructurings, share buybacks) and it's hard to get a large enough sample set to give predictive power