LEO

torokunai

LEO sat comms is different than geosync tho

Tall_Candidate_8088

Dude, crypto is a scam but the people who initiated the scam are in control of your government and actively burning the dollar to ground to build out super computers and LEO communication satellites. As soon as the financial systems have been miked for everything they are worth they are going to light a match. Crypto is the hedge against the worst outcomes in WW3 or Civil War 2 or whatever happens. People need to start waking the fuck up man, everyone is investing in people who are posturing to not pay anything back and there's nothing anyone can do about it. People are investing in the companies building the surveillance systems that monitoring every single thing they do. No good will come of any of this so holding some crypto including a real one like XMR is really fucking smart thing to do.

LongTermStocks

**KULR Technology Selected by Argo Space Corp. as Battery Provider for Orbital Transport Space Mission** $KULR announced that [Argo Space Corp.](https://www.argospace.com/) (“Argo”), an orbital transportation and mobility company, has selected KULR as the battery provider for its forthcoming space mission. Under the agreement, KULR will supply its KULR ONE Space (K1S) battery systems, engineered to NASA safety standards, to power critical spacecraft subsystems throughout the mission’s operational lifetime. The selection reflects KULR’s growing role as a trusted battery partner for the commercial space industry. The global space battery market is [projected](https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/space-battery-global-market-report) to grow to $5.61 billion by 2030, driven by surging demand for crewed and uncrewed deep space programs. Missions beyond LEO (low Earth orbit) impose uniquely severe requirements on energy storage: systems must sustain operation across extreme temperature cycling, prolonged vacuum exposure, and high-radiation environments.

Super-Activity-4675

You're not bringing the last 4 to 0. At best you're getting significant reduction to power and network costs. To cool in space you need to construct large, heavy radiators to dissipate the heat into space. Take a look at the ISS, it's biggest panels are radiators, and the internal workings of the ISS won't produce heat at nearly the level that a data center would... Not to mention, it's got to be able to withstand meteor strikes and collision with other space debris. So unless Musk is sitting on some sort of goldmine lighter weight radiator design that quite frankly only exists in the world of hard sci-fi, it's not going to be cheaper... it's going to be much more expensive. Now I'm not counting on the likes of Altman to know and understand such nuances, but there's a huge difference between putting a blanket of satellites in LEO and a large computing structure

xieta

Not sure I agree with that math, as you need the entire network of LEO satellites to offer that throughout reliably, not just a single satellite. Also the 90% reduction in cost requires starship to reliably survive reentry without sustaining damage (to be fully reusable). They haven’t come close to that yet. Arguably the booster catch is child’s play compared to the problem of surviving reentry without that energy damaging the ship.

OkStandard921

My case is bullish too tbf, but you can't follow the Meta playbook exactly since Meta is a non anonymous social media with different demographics. And hasn't been done before is what SpaceX thrives for. A LEO internet constellation hasn't been done before. Vertically reusable rockets haven't been done before etc. Based on my calculations space compute would likely be cheaper in the first 5 years, more expensive or similar over a 15 years time period when amortization extends for gas turbines etc. But the argument is not primarily costs, it's deployment speed. Terrestrial data centers take years, politicial resistance and NIMBYism will only increase. At some point, space is going to be the only way to get compute quickly enough and companies will pay the premium.

ToSeeAgainAgainAgain

RKLB is not looking to build a 5G coms constellation. Blue Origin constellation is aimed at enterprises, not the common user, it will also require a dish for said enterprises. Amazon LEO will take at least 2 years to even start offering services. None of them have neither the **spectrum** or the **tech** or the **collaborative strategy** ASTS has. Starlink is the only real D2D competitor and their tech is ass, and their strategy is predatory on MNOs, who are the ones who have the actual end-users. You can tell MNOs resent Starlink simply by how T-Mobile is looking for other options through [the joint venture with Verizon and AT&T](https://www.pcmag.com/news/att-t-mobile-verizon-team-up-to-try-and-steer-satellite-to-phone-market) that was announced this week. BlueOrigin and SpaceX cannot deny launching ASTS' satellites, that'd be anticompetitive, in fact they both have already launched ASTS, and they are starting to [launch ASTS sats again](https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7691/) next month. Moreover, when BO and SpaceX finally get their fully reusable rockets, prices will go down by a magnitude of 10. Not that it matters anyway because ASTS already has their first 100 satellite launches fully funded at current prices, and a huge war chest to pay for the cheaper launches. As soon as ASTS starts service the majority of D2D users will turn to ASTS users, worldwide, no Elon baggage, no lousy texts that fail if there's a cloud or you're in a car

brute-forced

Lmao, bait line and sinker. You think planes didn’t have internet before starlink. Viasat, and other LEO are already in use. You are the typical arrogantly incorrect redditor.

succesful_car_69

I strongly think that “major satellite customer” is AMAZON LEO because Amazon recently bought GSAT (Global Star) for $11.5 Billion and GSAT heavily uses all GCTS chipsets…Amazon needs 5G NTN and licenses for their LEO satellites to compete with SpaceX satellites race….

succesful_car_69

Then it is Amazon LEO :)

Osmirl

Well to be fair for blue this was their first LEO orbit. But kinda funny that they nailed the more complex ones. But yes spacex has landed more rockets than others have launched 😂

fmcfad01

And there is competition, others have competing services, Amazon LEO is coming, and most don't even need satellite internet. I've been plenty happy with my $35/mo t mobile 5g home internet for years. Bunch of overpriced hype meant for an edge use case if you ask for me. Far from an infinite addressable market.

TheRealNobodySpecial

Doesn’t Rocketlab have a $75billion valuation? A small-sat rocket launcher which can only launch 300kg to LEO with an expendable rocket. Surely SpaceX is worth 20 times that. Newspace valuation doesn’t seem to be following the market rules.

ProteinFarts_

It has to be SpaceX or Amazon LEO for it to be significant. LEO I think would be a great contender as SpaceX I think is designing their own chipsets.

succesful_car_69

There are some active rumors about Amazon buying out GCTS as Amazon recently bought out GSAT (Global Star) for $11Billion. GSAT started using GCTS 5G NTN chips and more going forward so it wud be effective if GCTS is a part of Amazon in terms of procurement of products for Amazon’s LEO satellites to compete with SpaceX satellites…Amazon might buy out at 800 million - $1 Billion valuation sometime in Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 as Amazon is now evaluating GCTS products and their use case line up. If Amazon buys out then SP might be at $10 for sure…..All up in the air…

Shoganai_Hito

ASTS management totally downplayed the Amazon LEO threat analyst question yesterday claiming it is considered an SOS feature only.

daedalus_dance

Well, first, share price beneath tangible book value per share sup 2 euro is a massive margin of safety. [Just go look at its balance sheet](https://stockanalysis.com/quote/epa/ETL/financials/balance-sheet/). Even if the thesis and execution is messy you are buying cheap. But its essentially a EU Defence play after the threat of US vendors cutting off LEO needed for drone warfare actually materialised. Its too big to fail and has direct french state backing. LEO is turning around commercially and expanding, and its supported by Airbus, Leonardo and a customer for EU Launch start up Maiaspace. They've commissioned new sattellites already and launch capacity. And its already embedded in European infrastructure via Iris2 so lots of the new capacity is already paid for. I just add on dips and sit on my hands. US market doesn't believe in it because they look at SpaceX and Blue Origin etcetera and think "Wow, these companies are so much better" - but they aren't if they get cut off when whoever is in the white house is mad at a foreign policy situation.

Canadian_Border_Czar

Its brilliant, build data centers on the moon, then drive a large asteroid into LEO and build a giant water fountain to launch fresh water directly from the great lakes towards the asteroid as an adiabatic cooling system.

kanduking

you could just buy the second largest LEO fleet operator lol

Pete26l96

$AMZN to $350 honestly seems pretty likely when looking at the historical valuations and factoring in that the company's at an inflection point regarding AWS acceleration, the establishment of LEO, and ad revenue growth. No reason why the company can't revert back to a P/E of 40 which is where it was at 2 years ago with worse growth.

Much-Buy-5830

I used to work in a LEO start up satellite company. Looks this is real for Europe. I have GCTS on my radar and Im adding this as well. Thanks Mate.

KinseyH

1. Matthew Fairfield, Oath Keepers member, was arrested for possessing explosives and weapons presumed stolen from the military. During search LEO discovered he had child sexual exploitation material on his computer. Convicted for fourteen felonies, weapons and pandering obscenity involving child pornography.[ https://www.akronlegalnews.com/editorial/10997](https://www.akronlegalnews.com/editorial/10997) 2. Eric Feltner, Missouri Lt. Gov Peter Kinder’s former chief of staff, [pled guilty to a pornography misdemeanor](https://news.stlpublicradio.org/delete1/2008-08-07/kinders-former-chief-of-staff-guilty). He showed porn to a child.[ https://news.stlpublicradio.org/delete1/2008-08-07/kinders-former-chief-of-staff-guilty](https://news.stlpublicradio.org/delete1/2008-08-07/kinders-former-chief-of-staff-guilty) 3. Royce M. Fessenden, The former head of the Christian County Republican Party - five years in prison for [child molestation](http://crimesceneinvestigations.blogspot.com/2009/01/former-head-of-christian-county.html). [http://crimesceneinvestigations.blogspot.com/2009/01/former-head-of-christian-county.html](http://crimesceneinvestigations.blogspot.com/2009/01/former-head-of-christian-county.html) 4. John Fickas, GOP campaign consultant in California, [accused of multiple rapes, at least one of a minor](https://voicesofmontereybay.org/2019/07/25/salinas-rape-case-spills-over-into-politics/) [https://voicesofmontereybay.org/2019/07/25/salinas-rape-case-spills-over-into-politics/](https://voicesofmontereybay.org/2019/07/25/salinas-rape-case-spills-over-into-politics/) 5. Jeremy Filbert, Republican former Mayor of Mitchellville, IA, was charged with [rape and sodomy of a child in Kansas](https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/investigations/former-iowa-mayor-faces-rape-and-sodomy-charges). [https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/investigations/former-iowa-mayor-faces-rape-and-sodomy-charges](https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/investigations/former-iowa-mayor-faces-rape-and-sodomy-charges) 6. David Fisher, CEO of Fisher Industries, “We Build the Wall” contractor, child porn[ https://www.builderdevelopernews.com/post/fisher-sand-gravel-corruption-settlement-borderwall-lawsuit-federal-government](https://www.builderdevelopernews.com/post/fisher-sand-gravel-corruption-settlement-borderwall-lawsuit-federal-government) 1. Republican party chair Donald Fleischman was charged with [two counts of child enticement](http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1911441/posts) and one count of exposing himself to a child   [https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/1911441/posts](https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/1911441/posts) 2. Republican County Constable Larry Dale Floyd was arrested on suspicion of [soliciting sex with an 8-year old girl.](https://www.myplainview.com/news/article/Former-Denton-County-constable-sentenced-in-sex-8506421.php) Authorities say Floyd also was interested in a 3-year-old girl and 16-month-old boy. [ https://www.myplainview.com/news/article/Former-Denton-County-constable-sentenced-in-sex-8506421.php](https://www.myplainview.com/news/article/Former-Denton-County-constable-sentenced-in-sex-8506421.php) 1. Republican Congressman Mark Foley abruptly resigned from Congress after[ "sexually explicit" emails surfaced ](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/29/AR2006092901574.html)showing him flirting with a 16-year old boy. [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101501539\_3.html?noredirect=on](https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101501539_3.html?noredirect=on) PA GOP Senator Mike Folmer,[ child porn](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/09/pa-state-senator-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography.html) [ https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/09/pa-state-senator-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography.html](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/09/pa-state-senator-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography.html)

QuantitativeNonsense

Firstly, the expendable setup is much more expensive than atlas v so thats a weak argument and my point still stands as accurate when you compare to equivalent Atlas V launches. Secondly, I don’t disagree about LEO, in that case F9 is dominant which is why I said ULA doesn’t have a monopoly in that department. Plus most satellites are aiming for Leo so that’s in F9 favor Point is saying “While others fight over AI code, SpaceX has hardware in the sky and zero real competition” is verifiably wrong. They have good tech— I’d love to work for them but OP shouldn’t lie and say they own the industry when their competitors are leading everywhere outside of spacexs specific niche Also, due to the weird merge of xAI and spacex (and just the involvement of elon) it’s going to be… complex. I have no fricking clue how the market is going to react to their IPO.

QuantitativeNonsense

Everyone seems to forget about United Launch Alliance, which with an exception of simple LEO payload deployment has a monopoly over space/rocketry. If you want to put something into a nonstandard orbit or if you need is HEO or GEO the only option is the Atlas 5 (or ask for Russian help). Furthermore, which capsule did NASA go with for Artemis? Orion Seriously, do you guys do any research into industries you invest in or is it all just vibes.

NaluknengBalong_0918

He’s lucky a LEO jumped and sat on him.

zero0n3

Nope. SpaceX is making money from Starlink. And hint hint - a recent theory is that Starlink, while a comms constellation of LEO satellites, is actually also covertly a very very good global scale radar system. Bonus because all the radar signals can be hidden in the expected signals for Starlink communications to endpoints. So think how valuable a GLOBAL, LOW EARTH ORBIT radar system would be. Imagine how useless “stealth” is when you have satellites a few hundred kilometers above, when the stealth designs rely heavily on RCS when radars are expected to be ground based or close to the horizon (AWCS flying racers etc). Now, add to this with how they “describe” finding that lost soldier who ejected from their plane… (And understand that humans are pretty “bright” on a radar system)

Large_Complaint1264

You could argue spacex barely knows how to get to space since they haven’t left LEO where as NASA did it the first time about 57 years ago.

Large_Complaint1264

Didn’t nasa just go to the moon? Dont think any of Elons rockets have even left LEO yet.

Objective-Box-399

It’s already shot up a million percent. Might go up more but I prefer to catch squeezes before they enter LEO

Responsible-Meringue

I mean yeah scale until you end up with a junkcloud that takes out everything in LEO. There's so much less orbit space up there than you think. Chain reaction is a very real threat 

SlartibartfastMcGee

If you can drop LEO access costs by 2 orders of magnitude, it starts to make a lot more sense. This isn’t something that will happen next year, or even in 10 years, but in the middle of this century it’s entirely plausible that there is a permanent fuel station on the moon used to refuel automated mining craft that use low energy orbits to access asteroids.

lmfaonoobs

How are they doing this? Are we sending abrams tanks to LEO now? Lol

LucasRefrigerator

RocketLab's electron can only sling about 700lbs to LEO, and payload fairing is tiny. It's nowhere near the size or payload cap to launch AST sats. Do some research next time.

SlartibartfastMcGee

$300/kg to LEO unlocks opportunities we haven’t even begun to explore yet. I don’t think people are ready to accept that SpaceX is a 25x return even at a 2T valuation if they can accomplish their starship goals.

Justthetip74

The actual craziness is that cheapest cost per kg to LEO was $54,000 on the space shuttle. Cost per kg on current ULA is $8000-9000/kg. Cost per kg on falcon 9 is $2720. Projected cost from Blue Origin is $3000/kg Projected cost per kg for starship is $90-$300 on starship. You won't even have to have engineers design a structure, just weld up some aluminum and fuckin send it

SlartibartfastMcGee

That sentence is so fucking insane. I know people are up in arms about the IPO valuation, but in 20 years it might seem absurdly low. Nothing has the scalability of cheap LEO access on a long enough timeline.

sorean_4

OP you know RKLB has currently nothing that will lift an ASTS satellite. The ASTS sat is at 4.1 ton next generation satellite. Rocket lab doesn’t play in the same league until Neutron can lift heavier sats into LEO.

Pete26l96

Can anyone explain to me why ASTS is a good investment? Even behind schedule, Amazon LEO has 10x more satellites that are better equipped and optimized for AWS connectivity. They're already securing enterprise contracts left and right, and are already in a partnership to provide cellular connections to Apple devices. Additionally, Amazon has close ties to Blue Origin which has/is allowing for them to ramp up satellite deployment rapidly. With the GlobalStar acquisition and access to spectrum, ASTS is basically an 80 lb chimpanzee in a cage with a 500 lb gorilla when it comes to competing for direct to direct cellular solutions.

Pete26l96

ASTS is done for, even being behind schedule Amazon LEO has 10x more satellites that are better equipped and optimized for AWS connectivity. They're already securing enterprise contracts left and right, and are in a partnership to provide cellular connections to Apple devices. The $35B valuation for ASTS is a joke.

Pete26l96

Real talk this situation with AST Space Mobile is insane. AST competes head to head with Amazon LEO -> Amazon acquires GlobalStar and announces a furthering to their partnership with Apple for internet connectivity, then Jeff Bezo's Blue Origin deorbits AST Space Mobile's most important satellite which was the second of two satellites required for government testing and will set AST back 6 months. Anyone think something fishy is at play?

Pete26l96

I keep hearing ASTS and TSLA investors say this buy LEO is the one securing enterprise contracts left and right and prioritizing placement of satellites for enterprise connectivity first. Yeah they're behind schedule but it's a far cry from the complete failure I keep hearing redditors claim. They don't need to have 10,000 satellites like Starlink.

LuckyHearing1118

Are you guys slow? Amazon LEO is so behind and delayed. They’re on the borderline of failure.

Gulliveig

Sorry for the typo, it's still early here in Switzerland :) I meant to type LEO, as in [Low Earth Orbit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit). Now my first coffee is ready. You have a wonderful day.

daedalus_dance

Eutelsat which we might all remember from last year when Starlink got cut off to ukraine has last 12 months: 1. Strengthened its balance sheet raising new equity. 2. Ordered like 1,000 LEO sattelites from Airbus/Thales 3. Changed its CEO. 4. Just signed a new contract with India's Nelco / Tata including Defense Communications 5. Scheduled launch capacity with Maiaspace. It's Been pumping like 5% a day for the last 3 days and a massive green institutional dildo on Friday 20th March that had no news associated with it. Take from all this what you will.

Comanche-Kiowa2027

Excuse me, retired LEO here... Show some professional courtesy! 😉 Damn, I was trying to make a joke and triggered the po-po bot. My wife isn't gonna be happy when she had to bail me out.

nsfwnsfwnsfw33333

So I actually asked Claude how much that would take and cost : Meta's **Hyperion** — a 5 GW data center in Louisiana, nearly the footprint of Manhattan, slated to come online by 2028. I'll model **5 GW** — a single-site monster like Hyperion — and do the full orbital version math including solar power. This gets wild. The default is **5 GW on Starship at 100 launches/yr** — matching Meta Hyperion's planned scale. The three brutal takeaways that break the dream: **Power is the unsolvable monster.** A 5 GW data center needs \~7.7 GW of peak solar to survive eclipse periods, which translates to roughly 30 km² of solar panels — bigger than Manhattan. In LEO you're in shadow \~35% of every 90-minute orbit, so you also need a battery bank measured in terawatt-hours. The solar array and radiators together outweigh the actual compute hardware by a factor of 3:1. **Thermal radiators are the sleeper problem.** On Earth you dump heat into air or water. In space there's nothing — every joule of waste heat must be radiated away via Stefan-Boltzmann. That requires a radiator array nearly as large as the solar one, and it has to operate continuously at full load. Nobody has deployed a radiator system at even 1% of this scale. **Launch is actually the cheap part.** Even with Starship at $10M/launch doing 100 flights a year, the launch bill is peanuts compared to space-hardening the compute. Every server needs radiation shielding, vacuum-rated materials, and per-chip thermal control systems — historically that's a \~30× cost multiplier. The solar arrays at $500/W (current space solar cost) alone run into the tens of trillions. Which is exactly why Project Sunrise's architecture of 51,600 small satellites is saner than this — distribute tiny amounts of compute across many cheap nodes rather than trying to replicate terrestrial hyperscale infrastructure in orbit. Here's everything from the widget at the defaults (5 GW, Starship at $10M/launch, 100 launches/year): **Mass breakdown — what you're lifting** The total orbital mass comes out to roughly 100,000 metric tons — about 238× the ISS. The breakdown: * Servers & compute: \~20,000 t * Solar arrays: \~30,800 t * Thermal radiators: \~25,000 t * Eclipse batteries: \~12,000 t * Power distribution: \~5,000 t * Racks, networking, structure: \~7,000 t Solar and thermal systems outweigh the actual computers 3:1. That's the core absurdity. **Logistics tab** * Total trips needed: \~667 Starship launches at 150t each * At 100 launches/year: done in \~6.7 years (launches only — assembly in orbit is a separate nightmare) * Earliest completion: around 2032, for launches alone **Solar power tab** * Peak solar capacity needed: \~7.7 GW (you need to over-generate during sunlit passes to cover the \~35 minutes of eclipse every 90-minute LEO orbit) * Solar panel area: \~31 km² — larger than Manhattan * Thermal radiator area: \~12–13 km² — nearly the size of Paris's city core * Battery storage for eclipse: \~1.75 TWh — an almost unfathomable amount of space-rated batteries **Cost tab** * Same 5 GW data center on Earth: \~$50 billion * Space-hardened compute alone: \~$1.5 trillion (30× terrestrial cost) * Solar power arrays: \~$3.8 trillion (at $500/W, the current cost of space solar) * Eclipse batteries: \~$1.5 trillion * Thermal radiators: \~$375 billion * Launch costs: \~$6.7 billion (the cheap part) * **Total estimate: \~$7.2 trillion** — roughly 26% of US annual GDP **Scale reality check tab** Mass comparisons: * 238× the ISS * \~11× the Eiffel Tower by weight (it's \~8,850 t) * \~100 cruise ships worth of mass * \~1.2× the Burj Khalifa by weight Area comparisons (solar array vs. cities): * Manhattan: 59 km² — solar array is half of that * San Francisco: 121 km² — solar array is about 25% of the city * The array would be visible with the naked eye from Earth's surface Other context: * Server count: \~1 million servers * All nations on Earth launched \~240 rockets in 2023. At 100/year just for this project, that's 42% of all global launch activity dedicated to one facility * Total cost is \~26% of US GDP The core conclusion: **launch is basically free relative to everything else**. The show-stoppers are power, thermal rejection, and the cost of space-hardening hardware. Nothing about this is physically impossible — it's just economically insane by roughly two orders of magnitude compared to terrestrial alternatives.

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

The Case for $AMZN at $250 - Arguably still the best buy in the Market Today. 1. The Fundamental Growth Disconnect The stock price has not caught up to the company’s internal performance over the last 5 years: • Price Lag: The stock has gained a meager \~8% CAGR the past 5 years. • Revenue & Cash Flow: Both have DOUBLED in that same window. • EPS Explosion: Earnings per share have skyrocketed by 600%. 2. Silicon & AI Dominance: The Hidden Chip Giant Amazon is no longer just a buyer of AI chips, they are effectively the second-largest semiconductor power in the world. • The $20B Run Rate: Amazon’s custom silicon (Trainium, Graviton, Nitro) has officially surpassed a $20 billion annual revenue run rate, growing at triple-digit percentages. To put that into perspective, Amazon’s internal chip business is already larger than AMD’s entire Data Center segment ($16.6B in 2025). • Trainium Success: The latest Trainium3 chips are already "fully subscribed," with partners like Anthropic using them to train next-gen models at a 30-40% better price-performance than Nvidia. 3. The Hidden Ad Juggernaut Amazon’s advertising business is now a global powerhouse that often flies under the radar: • Scale: It generates almost 2x the ad revenue of TikTok. • Growth: It is currently growing faster than $META. • Margins: This is a high-margin cash machine that offsets the costs of retail expansion and funds the $200B Capex for AI infrastructure. 4. Infrastructure & Future Assets Amazon is securing the pipes of the future economy: • AWS Re-acceleration: AWS’s AI-specific revenue run rate has hit $15 billion in Q1 2026, proving they are monetizing the AI boom faster than most anticipated. • Connectivity: With the acquisition of $GSAT spectrum and the scaling of Project Kuiper (LEO satellites), Amazon is securing the infrastructure to connect and serve the next billion users globally. • Robotics: As the world’s leading robotic manufacturer, Amazon is driving massive margin expansion in its retail segment through total warehouse automation. Online Retail is Amazon’s largest revenue segment and even small increases in operating margins will result in hundreds of millions dropping straight to the bottom line. 5. Valuation: The Simple Math When you look at historical multiples, $250 is a discount: • Current Multiples: Trading at roughly 30x forward earnings. • Historical Averages: The 5-year average P/E is 48x, and the 10-year average is 60x+. • Price Target: Applying even the conservative 5-year average multiple to forward earnings makes $300 a floor, with a clear path toward $400+ Bottom Line: You are buying the world's most dominant ecosystem, Silicon and a massively scaling chip business, Cloud, Ads, Satellites, AI, Robotics, and Logistics, at a valuation well below its historical norm.

jfdirfn

But next week they are going to yolo the 50m to raise $5 billion to retool their shoe factory to become a LEO space ship assembly company so they can do AI in SPACE !!

ergzay

I'm a software engineer not at Amazon. AWS is a glorified web hosting system with a ton of integrated services. It's still operating over the public internet along with something that is effectively a VPN. Starlink and AWS are layer 1-3 services. AWS is higher than all of that other than just their server hosting aspects. You don't gain anything versus going down a short bit of fiber to a Starlink uplink versus a short bit of fiber to a Kuiper/LEO uplink.

Pete26l96

$AMZN has to be the lowest hanging fruit in the market right now. Letter to shareholders pretty much confirmed they're already sold out of capacity on compute, chips, and everything AWS related for the next 18 months. LEO securing contracts with government, airlines, etc., left and right. Significant exposure to Anthropic growth via project rainier. Ads continue to grow 20%+ YOY due to prime expanding into sports and blockbuster TV series / movies. Retail expected to see margin improvements due to automation / robotics. I'm sure a lot of other stocks will provide much better gains, but from a risk to reward perspective Amazon seems unparallel right now.

mojitz

Sure they do. Space X might be able to launch a bit more cheaply, but Falcon 9 isn't really uniquely capable as a launch platform apart from being able to recover first stages — and others are quickly catching up there too. Even right now, though, quite a few rockets deliver similar or even superior payload to LEO capabilities.

NoButterscotch3153

puts on LEO

sigga_genesis

Also, the Falcon heavy isn't as reliable as long march. And it's subsidized, barely cheaper then the old soyuz launchers. For LEO that doesn't matter much. But for higher altitudes, they don't have an answer that is reliable. Hell, even NASA just proved how they are still ahead when it comes to deep space. That's why the proposed NASA budget is half, because they don't want competition with SpaceX.

Pete26l96

$AMZN has to be the lowest hanging fruit in the market right now. Letter to shareholders pretty much confirmed they're already sold out of capacity on compute, chips, and everything AWS related for the next 18 months. LEO securing contracts with government, airlines, etc., left and right. Significant exposure to Anthropic growth via project rainier. Ads continue to grow 20%+ YOY due to prime expanding into sports and blockbuster TV series / movies. Retail expected to see margin improvements due to automation / robotics. I'm sure a lot of other stocks will provide much better gains, but from a risk to reward perspective Amazon seems unparallel right now.

Seref15

Well they are in some ways and aren't in others. Theyve operated multiple space stations, SpaceX hasn't. They've successfully built and operated lunar landers and sample return missions, SpaceX hasn't. They have a more practical heavy payload to LEO capability than SpaceX--Falcoln Heavy has more raw power but Long March 5 has a much larger fairing which is generally more important since you will very rarely have small dense payloads. They have different goals and targets. China's space agency is also by a large margin the world's second largest launch service provider by number of launches which is important, they've demonstrated they have the logistics and command+control to operate a high launch cadence. They've get a vertical landing rocket sooner than later and their cadence will accelerate further.

v1035RoadTrip

“Based on current space launch costs, it costs roughly $4,000 to over $10,000 to send 1 gallon of oil to low-Earth orbit (LEO).” Google

unurbane

SpaceX did a fundamentally impressive feat which is open the world up to commercial LEO and communication expansion. So the market has been developed and demand is extremely high. Even in a recession, we will still be putting satellites into orbit (and weapons). That said, competition is getting stiffer each year so if we hold demand steady, the question becomes: how much business will SoaceX generate? How much market share will SpaceX control in 3, 5, 10 years?

equitymans

Iran is orbital. If they actually could build a warhead and launch it (without the USA stopping either process by force etc) they could technically launch it into various LEO. Even if it couldn't have a mechanism to strike the USA etc its warhead(s) in orbit and maybe that's simply what Iran needs to do to get future demands.... the probability it decays back to Iran is not only low while threatening the entire world (including the USA very directly with a warhead strike). The media actually tells you this isn't a threat... it's basic orbital physics ... trust me, it's a massive threat simply from their launch capability. They can deff put warheads in orbit if they have the opportunity to build and launch one without USA striking the pad first lol

WebODG

So has the market priced in the inevitable Kessler syndrome when everyone and their mom has constellations of thousands of satellites and one of these goes dark and slams into another at mach fuck? I get they are LEO but a collision is gonna send shit in all directions including up to higher orbit.

Stepfordhusband69

Short sighted regarded thinking.  This will lead to more work from home (I used LEO recently on a project and it worked fine) more work from home means less commute which will be a net positive to carbon footprint.

Guilty_Pineapple4486

You're joking right? They own the ton to LEO market.

Carlose175

It is true that he himself achieved nothing directly. He didnt invent any of that. But yet he runs companies and has workers under him that did. I think he is a terrible person and hate towards him is genuinely warranted. (I despite him for what he did for twitter and the racists messages he spreads, he is borderline a white supremacists) But theres absolutely an underlying ability within him to direct capital where it needs to be at to spawn innovation. The EV revolution, reusable rockets and LEO internet is not a mere accident.

FartFactory92

Great, now when talking about satellites we’ll forever have to clarify if we mean Leo or LEO.

1-866-867-5309

could they afford it though? I know broadband and even terrestrial 5G isn't economically viable to build up in many rural markets, but the operating costs of LEO satellites have got to be pretty high

tomgreen99200

ASTS is for cellphones / direct to device. Amazon LEO and Starlink for home broadband and requires an antenna.

nclpl

It wouldn’t really be all that bad in LEO though… anything in those orbits would decay pretty rapidly and we’d be back to launching rockets in a couple of years. It would be annoying, but it wouldn’t be the end of civilization as we know it. If a similar thing happened in geostationary orbit though… that’s a different story

Clear_Judge5062

…sigh, no. Amazon LEO has been a thing, and it hasn’t been private information… theyve been launching out of New Guinea this year and it’s been very public.

epyonxero

Leo is a bad name because its confusing "Amazon's LEO, Leo constellation"

throw3142

Kuiper is a reference to the Kuiper Belt / Gerard Kuiper, and Leo is a reference to Low Earth Orbit (aka LEO). Both cool names imo

InevitableTension699

It might be ok, wait for Iran to develop anti LEO satellites weapons to save us all

Juiicy_Oranges

Ain't no way Elon could ever manage that without turning LEO into a landfill. The irony of the regard desperately trying to get to Mars trapping us all on Earth.

entered_bubble_50

I love it! We should set up an accounting firm in low earth orbit. There's no GAAP in LEO! *Taps nose*

kanduking

And yet Eutelsat with 5-10% LEO satellites + small GEO fleet as well is trading at $2B lol

Kerhole

Not a lot of solutions to a piece of dead satellite hitting your satellite or launch vehicle at 17,500 mph. If there were, they'd put that stuff on tanks. I believe the current estimate is we're 2.8 days away from total loss of LEO and the ability to safely launch anything to any altitude. That will only decrease with more satellites. And keep in mind it only takes one mistake. One bad decision by an overworked Starlink or Leo employee, or one failed component at just the wrong time. The only solution once that happens is total shutdown of global launch industry until drag naturally clears up LEO, though that may take years. Or very high insurance rates for launches, but still no LEO. https://phys.org/news/2025-12-days-disaster-earth-orbit.html

bluen

How did they get past all the space trash in LEO?

Turkstache

SpaceX funded itself on hype until it got regulatory capture through Trump admin and Isaacman and emphasis on commercial systems. To do that they chose superhero suits and giant touchscreens with sci fi graphics and mood lighting for the gram. The systems are designed with automation to a fault and rely on the relative safety of LEO and the ability to just end the mission whenever if they need it. A touchscreen with no buttons sounds great until you realize *one* touch controller needs to go inoperative for an entire screen to lose its ability to input commands. Orion looks antiquated but it is a much better capsule for self sufficiency. The astronauts have physical access to almost everything they need to troubleshoot problems. This access has saved previous missions from problems that could have killed the occupants outright or crashed the vehicle or prevented it from coming home. A big benefit of this physicality is that you can look/feel at a panel and know what actions have been done, which is useful for low power situations when electricity is going to be rationed. There is also zero consideration for visual aesthetic (except human factors involved in operating the capsule), so naturally it isnt going to look very clean with wires and stuff hidden away (which is what you associate with modernity)

johndsmits

Ironically we're talking all day about a space company's eventual $1T IPO: that can only reach LEO and land a few rockets... instead of 4 folks tomorrow literally going to the moon, loop a few times and back...and marks the first woman (Koch), the first Black person (Glover), and the first non-U.S. citizen (Hansen) to make a lunar journey: needs to be a polymarket on whether someone taking credit for DEI at 9pm? Buy the rumor sell the news, 9:48pm.

cbusoh66

100X P/S and competition is beginning to catch up on launch, and their real cash cow, Starlink. May trade up to $2 trillion but it will end up at less than half and even lower before end of year. The xAI move was to distract about this pipe dream of data centers in space bullshit because the rest of the business has plateaued, just look up non-Starlink Falcon 9 launch numbers, stuck. And Starlink growth has slowed and smaller nimbler players such as ASTS on the D2C front and Amazon LEO are leapfrogging ahead. This is not the behemoth SpaceX of 2-3 years ago when the sky was the limit. It should do well, but the sales and profit margins will never justify a valuation above several hundred billions. There will be an initial pump because of the limited shares released and all the indexes and ETFs that will be forced to buy, but it will be much much lower by end of the year.

Hodr

I wanted to buy into Starlink the moment i heard about it, having lots of experience with LEO and even MEO based ISPs (technically i still have access to an O3B receiver that works). Sucks that now they have already proven the model, built up much of their network, and attached it to SpaceX there's much less room for investor growth.

Sanpaku

At Starlink's low orbital altitude and high drag/mass of their sats, it would be more like 3-4 years if its wasn't for the argon thrusters they use for station keeping. They run out of argon after 7 years and use the last bit to deorbit. You can get a rough idea using one of the orbital decay calculators, like [this one](https://www.ovita.org/menu/tools/Odc). I've thought about how an adversary with space launch capacity would counter a disadvantage of thousands of intel and comms satellites in LEO. I think it could be done by lofting a payload of tungsten microspheres into a polar orbit just above the Starlink constellation and dispensing them. It becomes a circular orbiting cloud slowly losing altitude, punching holes through most satellites below that altitude, over the course of 2 years, and by 5 they all reenter. Kessler syndrome is a pretty temporary problem so long as the space junk is all below 535 km altitude.

Kanel0728

Starlinks are in LEO as that guy said. Without constant reboosting (Starlinks have this capability by necessity) they would reenter within weeks due to the atmospheric drag. It's really not an issue in this case, especially not a long-term one.

Kanel0728

Starlinks are in LEO as that guy said. Without constant reboosting (Starlinks have this capability by necessity) they would reenter within weeks due to the atmospheric drag. It's really not an issue in this case, especially not a long-term one.

balinor41

Not a chance without massive propellent energy. LEO is still being pulled to earth at about 90% of surface gravity on average. Things stay up there because they are constantly "falling" around earth with course corrective energy being added. To escape gravity you need way more than any explosion short of a fission reaction could cause if I remember the numbers correctly.

Wild-Style5857

Honestly curious: explosions occuring in LEO wouldn't send enough mass of what exploded into a higher orbit to stay there long enough to cause a potential problem?

balinor41

They're not even just LEO, which is a huge volume, they're almost at the lowest viable orbit. I get most people on reddit love screaming about Kessler Syndrome though lol.

MentalBomb

Starlink Satellites are in LEO. If they become debris they will burn up in the atmosphere. There's zero chance these can actually cause a Kessler Syndrome.

Key-Beginning-2201

They're not even profitable. $15 billion and growing in Starship costs and $30+ billion in X ai debts. Plus ASTS and Amazon LEO coming online? They're rushing to IPO because they're rushing to cash in on retail investors before the collapse.

Pete26l96

Despite the direction of the share price, I actually really like the direction AMZN is going with their plan to try their hand at smart phones again. Especially with Amazon LEO connectivity, they're going to easily be able to up sale prospective buyers into a whole amazon ecosystem with Prime Video, Alexa, etc. Yeah they failed 12 years ago with their Fire Phone, but they've grown a lot as company since then.

Pete26l96

I actually like the move. They've grown a lot as a company since their previous failure in the space and should be able to leverage Alexa and Amazon LEO connectivity. I know people meme about Alexa being garbage and Amazon LEO being slow to send their satellites into space, but they are both great offerings for a phone. With their scale I think they'll be able to offer a decent value oriented phone.

the_Q_spice

I don’t have Vantor’s classified data, but they are a bit more tricky than PL due to being able to maneuver them. Vantor manages this all with just 6 Legion satellites compared to PL’s 200, and unlike PL, doesn’t have to worry about competing in congested LEO due to having all of their satellites in MIO. The comparative satellite that Planet uses is their SkySats, which had to be lowered in orbit just to achieve 80cm resolution. Vantor’s highest by comparison is 25cm, basically, their satellites have the radiometric resolution of PL’s SkySats, while having similar revisit times to PL’s Doves. As a note on foreign marketing, Vantor also makes Cortex, which is a software that allows integration of any foreign satellites with theirs for intelligence collection. It is also a black box, so they maintain ITAR compliance, and don’t threaten other countries Intel systems with breaches. Cortex and Forge is pretty wild, as it allows sensor fusion between either intelligence platforms, or even real-time data such as aircraft, drones, or even human-mounted cameras. Funny you should mention Sweden, because SAAB is actually working with Vantor at the moment to integrate Forge into the next generation of Swedish military vehicles. Basically so that SAAB equipment users can see real time 30-minute refresh satellite imagery, real-time SAR 3D mapping, and all see and queue the cameras of any other networked vehicle. Vantor is also the sole provider of data for the F35’s Full Mission Simulator to all F35 using countries, and that data has all ITAR restrictions removed (Congressional approval).

JackTroubadour

wait til guidance, on demand imaging + backlog gonna send it into LEO (low earth orbit).....

PossibleSecretary524

People who love this stock, can you explain your logic behind loving this one, but not Amazon's LEO for example? thanks

Major_Warrens_Dingus

yet another instance of Google half assing something. Can't really blame them in this regard though, LEO cell tech will usurp all telecom companies.

Mental-At-ThirtyFive

Elon after taking over Tesla made EVs real that convinced China to get Tesla to China and here we are now where Elon knows EVs are a dead end for his ambitions and knows that he does not stand a chance against Chinese EVs - and now reshuffling his deck. Starlink made this LEO infra real enough commercially - now we have TELCOs getting their infra strategies in place - the little nazi wannabe is the reason, imho, for all of this. It is all about global comms infra. On this I wondered if Iran had taken out the satellites above them with their missiles. That would have added to the interesting times we live in.

Th3DarkFunk

Yes indeed. The Russian military is not a direct starlink customer, it uses hacked or bootlegged terminals in addition to other drone control technologies like short range RF and fibre optic cables. We are on r/stocks and you asked about LEO broadband so I gave you a good list of companies to check out in my initial comment. Not here to play armchair general. There are many other Satcom companies you can check out and they are all bidding for government contracts in one sector or another. Good luck to you.

Th3DarkFunk

I am confused because first you talk about the war, and then you talk about commercial markets. Not the same. As I pointed out, Starlink is well known to western consumers, but there are many competitors for different use cases. I am just providing information since you asked the question. The Russian military has its own assets. They certainly aren't dependant on an American company for crucial links. There are other solutions for drone control, albeit not as easy to deploy as LEO connectivity. Russia has its own fleet of GEO satellites, and is developing a LEO constellation "Sfera"

Enough_Summer7073

If starlink was really a problem for Russia they would have already sent a couple missiles up there and shot a few down, which would cause a huge cloudn of debris that destroys everything in its path in LEO. All it takes for these orbit arrays to go caput is a bit of debris.

Th3DarkFunk

What are you asking? What does this have to do with Ukraine? There are many LEO constellations for a variety of use cases. For consumer internet service Starlink and Amazon Kuiper are big. There is OneWeb, Telesat Lightspeed is on the way. Iridium and AST are for mobile. Kepler has its niche as well. Take your pick of any LEO, MEO, GEO operator and I guarantee you that they have govt/military contracts and are assisting with connectivity for drones etc.

corndogslayer

The “no moat” and “SpaceX will eat them” takes are pretty outdated at this point. On the technology side, ASTS holds over 3,400 patents covering their beamforming and phased-array architecture. Their core advantage is delivering real broadband directly to unmodified smartphones with no special hardware required , which is fundamentally different from what Starlink offers today. The Block 2 BlueBird satellites are the largest commercial communications satellites ever built, with 2,400 sq ft arrays. that size isn’t a flex, it’s a physics requirement to hit actual broadband speeds from LEO to a regular phone. On the business model, AST partners with carriers instead of competing against them, which eliminates customer acquisition costs and turns potential rivals into revenue partners. They have agreements with 50+ MNOs including AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. Over $1 billion in minimum committed revenue is already locked in through definitive commercial agreements. And that's contractual, not speculative. On SpaceX specifically, yes they have launch advantages, but Starlink’s direct-to-cell offering with T-Mobile started with low-bandwidth SMS, not broadband. ASTS is purpose-built for D2D from day one. Also worth noting, ASTS uses multiple launch providers including SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO so they’re not dependent on anyone and are literally using Falcon 9 when it makes sense. On actual results, full year 2025 revenue hit $70.9M with Q4 alone at $54.3M beating forecasts by nearly 38%. This is a real revenue generating company now. The bear case made more sense in 2023. Risks are real, dilution and burn rate are worth watching. But “no moat, SpaceX kills them” misses what this company is actually building.

SpaceyMcSpaceGuy

lol that’s basically the DD it’s trading on. I’m sure once Neutron is going they’ll find a path to more revenue, but at that point LEO broadband and mobile coverage will have deep competition. Neutron also isn’t good enough $/kg for orbital compute constellations. We’ll see what they come up with.