LOT

Electronic_Rhubarb93

I love the idea of space colonisation but recommend everyone read ***"A City on Mars"*** by Kelly and Zach Weinersmith, written by two people who also clearly love the idea but point out a LOT of problems that need to be resolved first

JacksmackDave

You have gotten lucky. 7% is more return than the yearly average that should be expected. You are 19 and can stomach some risk. Diversification is smart, especially as you age. If you want to avoid that to lean hard on single stocks you need to be aware that one bad day, a bone headed CEO or an catastrophic breakdown of supply chains could make you lose a high percentage. I diversify my portfolio and keep 20% of my money for risky plays. Personally I like to watch for strong companies in a slump. I have been loading up on Intel for the past several years and just holding on. They sank and stayed down a long time but I knew they would be back eventually. I find that this has worked for me. But I don't put everything into that basket. I could have made a LOT more money, but pigs get slaughtered... Intel could have gone belly up if things got worse for them. So it was a risk I wasn't willing to take.

Desperate_Stretch855

1% of companies? 1% of market cap? I'm not sure what you're asking... Accounting standards have gotten a LOT better and tighter over the last few decades.

FNFactChecker

NRED is a scam ticker being pumped relentlessly Just stick with big bois like FCX or TECK. If you want a basket of miners, COPX is your play. Explorers tend to go bust, A LOT. The only people who make money are those who load up when it's trading for pennies and then unload it onto future bagholders as the ticker skyrockets on hope 

Chance-Albatross7809

im not saying expect market to dump, but i wouldnt expect amazing news over this weekend. the stalemate still has a LOT of time it could go on for if u understand how all this shit works u kno.

Lucy333999

It was fun. I'm just bad at it. A LOT of dropping, lol. So... no more for me. ETF's and stable stocks only.

Spy300

**LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOO** >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >Trump: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! President DJT'

Ok-Teach3479

When the government wanted to give people stuff for free instead of taxing people to pay for it they printed a LOT of money. A good chunk of that money went into buying assets.

Sharp-Direction-6894

I don't want any larger of a tax burden than I am already paying. I pay A LOT of fucking money in taxes.

Franks2000inchTV

But NASA had already done it before SpaceX even started. Its a LOT harder to do something the first time.

summerofrain

Well, yeah, 30% of GTA6 revenue on Playstation will be a LOT more money than 30% on Xbox.

Kingcanute99

It sure is. But $45B is a LOT less than where AI needs to get to to spend a half trillion dollars a year on NVIDIA chips.

AskMeAboutMyGenitals

MY FUCKING CALL WOULDNT EXECUTE AND I LOST A LOT. Broke ass brokers.

Valuable_Sundae5737

A LOT of sarcasm in that. A lot.

DICK_STUCK_IN_COW

Or in A LOT of debt

Shoty6966-_-

It has definitely improved A LOT since 2022. No doubt. But I do agree it seems to be leveling off. I expect slow rotation of institutional equity back into retail goods over the next 9-24 months. And then another big ai rally will begin again going into 2029-2030.

thenorthernwhiteboy

Where’s the conviction friend? 1 contract? I’m waiting for the hype into release and I’ll be shorting TTWO into the ground after. Sales metrics will miss, game physics and metrics will miss audience expectations, 1/4 of the features they “promised” won’t be included. This now 13yr old imaginary game has no bugs, infinite features, AI integration and zero compromises… it can’t and won’t which will lead to A LOT of disappointment. \*TTWO down 20% 9mnths after release date\*

Echo-Possible

The ROI on buying and renting Nvidia hardware is not greater than owning the future of the enterprise AI software layer. Anthropic will make A LOT more money (profit) than SpaceX long term.

QTpieme

You can sell tomorrow. Trust me. It’s not worth it. They won’t ever let AMD go straight down, so these will essentially become worthless with every dump and pump. I bought QBTZ when Qbts was 23$ and it rallied up to 28 ish and I was down A LOT. It literally took qbts to hit 11$ for me to break even because the up and down makes these worthless. Unless there’s a huge bear market and amd goes down % every single day for weeks, these will essentially become worthless

Jumprdude

Is that dividend per quarter? So $1 a year? that's a LOT more than their current dividend levels.

RampantPrototyping

Has to beat by A LOT

UsernameIWontRegret

The atmosphere diffuses about 40% of the sun’s rays. Plus like you said best case scenario it’s sunny 50% of the day. But there’s also cloudy days. And solar farms take up a lot of practical space on the surface that can be used for better things. So yeah, moving our source of solar energy to space makes A LOT of sense from an engineering standpoint.

PsychoSynthesizer

Christ, A LOT of regards seem to need MU to go up

Small-Row8973

Nice, but why didn't you buy a LOT more shares of Nvidia at 3.37? Or even accumulate a lot more shares of Nvidia as the price was rising? A paltry number of shares won't make a big difference to the majority of people. It seems you might have around 300 to 320 shares? So taking into the stock splits of 4 to 1 in July 2021 and 10 to 1 in June 2024, I'm guessing you perhaps had about 8 shares of Nvidia originally. Then it went up to 32 shares with the first stock split. Then it went up to about 320 shares with the second stock split. The main question is, why did you not buy more shares? 6500% is great, but it would have been so much better if you started with lets say 800 shares, instead of the orginal 8 shares. Lol.

betarhoalphadelta

Gotcha. I read the progression from the your link. I think we're mostly just talking different languages. I.e. completely different time horizons on what a "major thing anytime soon" meant. If you're really talking about a decade (or two) timeframe to mature, I can agree. That gives a LOT of time for the industry to advance and solve some of these other problems, and for battery technology (energy density and cost) to progress. I'm not sure I believe the thesis enough to put my own money behind it (especially since I'm hoping to be retired in a decade), but I see where you're coming from. Good discussion, thanks.

radioref

Let me tell you how it did it. There are more buyers than sellers today. A LOT MORE

EnginrA

He spends A LOT

Beneficial-Sail-6139

A LOT more PAIN coming

KemShafu

It costs a LOT to revert from cloud to onprem. Not counting all the extra people to maintain a server space plus utilities and security.

Feedthemcake

You can make A LOT of money behind this dumpster here sweetie.

touron69420

Nvidia pre’s a LOT too

sloanemonroe

My first trade today made me $50. I felt good about it because I looked at it as free lunch. But now I’m up $3000 for the day and just as you’d think, I feel a LOT better about that.

tr3xic

I think MELI might be what you are looking for. I will say it is expensive P/E-wise, but at the rate it's growing and projected to continue growing, its fairly priced. Its becoming a monopoly in Latin America in both its businesses, online retail, and credit cards. Share price is down 40% in the past year making for a compelling entry point. Plus, a LOT of metals and rare earth metals are exported from Latin America. AI demand for these could grow Latin American economies, which could drive the growth of MELI greater than projected. Oil is also a major export there too. I don't think its exactly mispriced, just that its going to grow rapidly over the next few years.

Recent_Bus_1281

ran the numbers instead of reading the 12th "SOFI to $50" post today. P/E is 34.7x. Financial sector median is 12x. So right out the gate you're paying nearly 3x what a normal financial company costs. For that premium you'd expect a money printer. Instead you get $0.45 EPS with declining earnings momentum. About that $50 price target everyone loves: at $0.45 EPS, $50 = 111x earnings. JPMorgan trades at 13x. So the thesis is basically "SOFI will become the greatest financial company of all time." No pressure. Revenue is $3.6B which is real. This isn't some pre-revenue startup. But P/S is 5.5x vs the 2.0x sector median. Book value is $8.26, stock's at $15.61. You're paying nearly 2x book for what even the most generous classification calls a turnaround play. The one real bull case: they're sitting on net cash. Not going bankrupt tomorrow. But "probably won't go bankrupt" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting when your price target is a 3x from here. Could momentum carry it higher? Obviously, stocks don't read balance sheets. But if your entire thesis is "everyone on social media says it's undervalued," that's more like a prayer circle than DD. No position.

Etherius

My point is that I read the other posts in this thread and felt someone who said they’d “like to be aggressive” deserves a full picture of what “aggressive” means Because it clearly means different things to different people There are people in this sub who think owning individual stocks, itself m, is aggressive (and broadly speaking they are correct) And then there’s people like me who chase annual CAGRs of 20-25% via options and leverage. There have been years I have had to stomach 50% swings in my portfolio value. I haven’t done the analysis but I would guess my sharpe ratio is incredibly poor. I have over 20 years experience doing this and it’s been a bumpy ride to say the least. I’ve been very successful but it takes a LOT of babysitting and I’d be lying if I told you most people succeeded at it. Survivorship bias is very real when you play with leverage This is a lot of words for “we really need to know what YOU mean by ‘aggressive’ before we can make recommendations” One person’s “aggressive” looks like 65% individual equities in a portfolio while another person’s “aggressive” is gearing themselves 1000:1 on FOREX.

Degn101

There are a LOT of negative comments around POET. Havent seen anything indicating the product doesnt work, and now they have a 500 million dollar partnership with someone. They also have a lot more cash to scale up production. As long as the AI hype continues, im holding onto it. In at 8.4, if that matters to anyone.

themage78

>Iran has no nuclear program and weren’t close to developing nukes. They enriched uranium to about 45% (from what has been surmised) from the 2-3% they were allowed to under the Obama administration deal. While still noy close to a nuke, it was a LOT further than they were before. >Of course Iran not trying to hear peace negotiations cuz Trump administration has zero credibility they are negotiating on good faith. Because his 1st administration tore up.a working deal. >As far as terrorist, easy problem to solve. Israel stops committing genocide and war crimes in Gaza Lulz.

Old_Ad_3655

I read that he slept next to naked 18yr old girls, including his grand nieces, to "test his willpower". Which implies that they were willing or it really wasn't testing HIS willpower. You attributing that quote might be a LOT closer than you think.

Timmy-from-ABQ

There's more than one variable in your portfolio. It sounds SUPER boring to talk about asset allocation, how old you are, what your financial goals are, how much risk you can stomach, using diversification, and having a plan that can be followed with discipline. But it's not a bad idea to assess these. Selling a winner, or part of a winner is just one thing you can do. It turns out that buying is a lot easier to do than is selling. When deciding to sell, Fear Of Missing Out will begin to wrestle with You Only LIve Once, and other emotions that interfere with the disciplined management of your portfolio. For example, when you are young and putting money in, Dollar Cost Averaging is, in my opinion, the only way to go. Selling when you're young probably isn't a good idea as long as your portfolio is diversified. As one ages, rebalancing and changing the asset allocation is a good idea. This is when some disciplined, rational selling makes sense. When to sell "A Stock?" I don't buy single stocks except in my play money, which is usually 10-15% of my total portfolio. But then, I'm older. If you're young and single and don't have obligations to others, go ahead and day trade and do leveraged options! You'll be guaranteed to learn a LOT.

HAND__EGG

Yikes.. You just lost money and I mean A LOT

SvenTropics

Shorting at open makes a LOT more sense. It's gonna crash immediately after IPO. There's no future high potential earnings from that business. It'll make money, but the valuation doesn't even begin to make any sense. SpaceX rockets - We aren't going to Mars and the ISS is shutting down. China, India, and Russia have their own rockets. So, you are only launching satellites and science probes. There's no money for a moon base right now. Starlink - Sure, it's a great offering and a technical achievement. However, it's been around for a while. I would postulate that everyone who would want internet in the middle of nowhere already has Starlink. Why wouldn't they? It's affordable and available. So, there's no growth potential. Twitter - Losing market share daily to Truth Social and Blue Sky based on people's affiliations. It used to be a big deal, and it's a shadow of the market share it used to have. xAI - Arguably the 4th worst AI right now behind ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. They pretty much have a plurality on AI right now. This is like buying into Lycos in 2010 when Google, Yahoo, and Bing had pretty much all the search. This is very dumb. While you'll rope in enough idiots to maybe sell a 3% float, it's gonna get crushed in the open market.

vermilli21

It’s the weekend! Time to strike fear on everyone. WE ALL ARE GONNA LOSE A LOT OF MONEY

demaraje

Get off your high horse with this patronizing shit. I'm a ML Engineer. I know how this works. I use it and build it on a daily basis. You're literally talking about SDD like it's some godsend. It fucks up A LOT. Talking about Opus 4.6 Yes, good prompting and planning makes a huge difference. It still fucks up. Do a simple experiment. Write 10 changes by hand and save the git patch. Then write a simple prompt/agentic flow/ReAct flow to produce them from a simple description. One flow for all. Calculate the semantic difference to what you wrote. Then you'll have an idea of how well it performs.

CuteAmoeba9876

Your 2 basic options are to either spend more now and save less towards your old age, or to save A LOT more now and retire younger than 65.  Usually the goal of retirement savings isn’t to live in luxury in your 70s, it’s just to be able eat and keep a roof over your head. Statistically, you are very likely to live into your late 70s or longer. Social security is only gonna pay you like $1-2k/ month. How are you going to survive when you’re too old to work?? So if you’re saving at least 10-15% towards your retirement, you’ll make sure you won’t starve when you’re old. If you want to retire before 65 or have a better lifestyle than “not starving”, you need to save more. 

Belaroth

Dont knwo if you are all just bots or payed shillers or just dont understand anythign about valuation of companies. But I hope you got your lesson after report. Yes there is some potential if company actually succeed but its a logn way and right now there is bigger chance it will go bunkrupt. They have no cash, no revenue, big debt and burning 10 times what they earn. They have to dilute shareholders A LOT or go bunkrupt. Both means your bags you are holding will go down drastically.

sirloindenial

Maritime and plantations in my country use starlink a LOT. Starlink cost peanuts compare to trying to get telcos to build network towers. And in the ocean it's cheaper than other satellite options. Not sure if starlink is getting its cost covered but industry largely adopted it.

tristis_veritas

It's the opposite. US is not forced to print money because we are the reserve currency. We get to print A LOT less because we are the world reserve currency. We print because US cannot absorb the flood of debt hitting markets. Demand for dollars is actually *inadequate*. If you understood what happened December, you would know that the cash futures basis trade broke down and Fed was losing control of overnight repo rates. You're kind of all over the place with vague what ifs. There is no good alternative and there is no need to speed the demise of fiat. Even if all fiats are doomed to fail we should still try our absolute best to make them last as long as possible as the consequences are dire. If you agree with that then we are on the same page.

FourtyMichaelMichael

You moron. Your money is worth A LOT LESS than 14.7% from when he started. OH COOL NUMBER WENT UP... but the number isn't worth shit now.

Ill_Construction5880

Hello Reddit, not sure if this is the right sub for this but here goes. A couple of years ago my family and I invested in a physical asset worth a lot of money. We invested a lot of money into this, and we've made great profits from it according to the market. But the thing is, I don't really want it anymore. When I was younger, I was into some bad stuff and one bad decision I made was investing in this particular asset. I may have influenced my family to do the same, and lets just say they've invested A LOT more money than I have. Since then I have improved my life for the better and developed a sense of faith, but I've realized how big of a mistake this was. With the amount of money I initially invested I could purchase a car, which would be great for my career plan to work with a friends' construction company. My brother could also get his life on track by being able to afford an apartment as opposed to living with us which has been having a negative impact on my parents and my health. I've been trying to tell my parents this, that this investment was a mistake and that we should pull out, but they don't seem to get it. I guess it'll have to get the point where they finally realize "hey, we don't really need this investment, it was a waste of time and we're purposely locking up money we could be using for more important things." The thing is, I don't even want the profits made from it. I just want to take out the money I initially invested and be done with it as I don't want anything to do with this particular asset anymore. Is that possible? Can I withdraw the initial money I invested years ago without the profits and without paying any taxes or additional fees? It is a precious metal and I live in Canada.

RedParaglider

1. Ongoing insane infrastructure costs on hardware that outdates/dies quickly. This is not the Dot Com era where infrastructure such as dark fiber and servers after the pop went on to be very useful. Most companies wouldn't fit the electric bill to run cheap enterprise grade GPU racks if they could get them cheap at auction. 2. Increasing interest rates. 3. Lack of proof of any company willing to pay non subsidized rates. 4. Hardware being the only moat to business not software or models with open source models being viable. 5. Increasing electricity costs with increasing hostile environment to mega data centers. \* Right now the cost of one GPU in a rack of 8 in just electric costs is more than one person would be willing to pay for LLM access. A single H200 at a cheap cheap rate of 0.086 costs around 120 dollars a month in the card cost+cooling cost in electric per month, you would need like 17 of those to host a 1T param model. This is a big concern in the localllama community among hobbiests and people that run self inference and their electricity usage is a drop in the bucket. I love LLM's, I think they will continue to advance, but the ecosystem is going to evolve to be more decentralized. Google is already showing a move here by pushing a local LLM model into chrome browsers if the hardware supports it. Many LLM inference companies are doing their best to make it harder to use inference right now. Having massive datacenters powered by their own nuclear plants MIGHT make some sense if it is treated as a utility, but the costs on that utility are a LOT higher than what they are today. The only way we drive down true costs (and I mean real world costs not what these companies are charging right now) in the short term is through local LLM's being utilized for more basic things with upstream calls to larger LLM's when necessary.

Daymjoo

I was with you until the end. Whether xAI has anything to use the datacenters for or not, there's **A LOT** of outstanding demand from many other sources. NBIS is booked until EOY2027 already.

DICK_STUCK_IN_COW

No matter how bad it seems just remember it could definitely get A LOT worse

amshanks22

I think more realistically what it would look like isnt a bubble burst but maybe more like a slow deflation. Tech is here to stay and AI as a sub tech category is too. Where i can see things going (not as bad as the dotcom stuff) is how quickly this all has happened. Tech companies quick and hefty investments which will not ROI *as quick* as projected. But zooming out, lets not forget the stock market hits all time highs A LOT. (Nearly) EVERY year. And if it does burst, history shows that the following few years returns can be pretty darn high in a recovery…so keep investing in something.

Spy300

This is the way. >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >Trump: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! President DJT'

erstwhile_estado

Of the mag7, I believe google is the highest in capx, which means they have a LOT of money in loans at variable interest. They have about 200 billion total capx. How much more do they owe if interest rates rise by just 25 basis points?

kyndrid_

I would assume there are a LOT of 800C options expiring tomorrow that MMs are laughing about and it'll unpin as soon as those go

FrostySignature135

Ten years? Something is very wrong. I started this year, selling puts and calls, and I am already profitable, and believe me when I say I am far from being a genius. Did you study before starting? What were your sources? There’s A LOT of excellent books on options and psychological aspects of trading available. Run from influencers… look for books. Try tastytrade and barchart materials freely available online.

Aladean1217

NVDA is kinda scary right now tbh. A lot of volatility and uncertainty. Plus a LOT of market cap for it to be moving so much. That said, my personal belief is they hit 240 before earnings, and likely continue up for a little after earnings, maybe a top out around 250. Could always draw back though too of course. But I think if nvidia rallys, other bits of tech are gonna rally and we see some more S&P surge. Currently I anticipate a SPY early market surge followed by a moderate correction. After the correction assuming nothing crazy drops from the china summit, it’ll likely find a happy spot close to 749. Gonna try and get some 0DTE on spy at open for it and try to close them for like 200%. Might be 100% wrong too but time will tell. This position I’m going to enter with $2000. Apart from that, my nvidia position plan consists of it being $240+ before earnings, at which point I’ll sell 4 of my 11 calls for about 10k and pour that into SPY Calls for the following day. If nvidia rallys then that 10k might just be a 3-4x position, the remaining nvidia calls I’ll sell post earnings. And then I’ll settle down, pull money out and pay off debts, do some researching and use 75% for actual positions and then degen swing the remainder.

FrogsGoMoo

What’s wrong with being a Plastic Surgeon? You know they do A LOT more than boob jobs and lip filler right? Where do you think people go to get their face fixed after a horrible accident or birth defect and just want to look normal?

No-Alarm3762

Ok listen, there’s not much more room this can run up, but there’s A LOT of room this can go down. Secure your profits, wait for a 20% dip, and go back in and chill for a bit 

Wingdings2

Canada does a LOT of resource extraction. Many global mining, oil and gas, and energy stocks are listed on the TSX and makes up a huge portion of the market cap of the Canadian market. The banking and insurance sector in Canada is also quite strong with large portions of the business doing business in the USA, which is a massive market. Canadian banks like TD, BMO, and RBC have a decent amount of US business. You can’t say the same for British banks and companies.

kinetic_honda

You do realize that a lot of humans live paycheck to paycheck, yes? That doesn't allow for much room to invest in the stock market. Relatively speaking, to be able to afford to buy one stock of Nvidia puts you above a LOT of people on this planet, money wise.

GandalfTheHung1

I agree that it will be a huge play down the line, but I think it still got a couple years before it starts. It still needs widespread adoption by data centers, and there's a LOT of legal/red tape they need to get through first to get to that point

WSB-mods-are-

Microsoft is the most consistent bag of shit I have ever held. And I have held a LOT of bags

Lazy-Gene-7284

This one for me, your first loss is almost always your best loss. When something drops 10% or more in a day over some news, typically bad earnings, don’t hang on just drop it. They almost always have a LOT further to fall.

bankermayfield2026

This is highly likely. China will give up A LOT for this, and it’s one of the few things that won’t impact Trump’s base negatively.

Willing-Angle-2203

crazy thing is I honestly don't know how its possible to make up for the capex numbers. I'm not even being hyperbolic, but we have legit trillions being spent on a tech that is still just.... fucking expensive man. The AI companies are super shadowy about how much tokens cost... etc... because its just A LOT. OpenAI/Anthropic better pull a rabbit out of the hat, the first moment they show some signs of weakness its gg

Putrid_Pollution3455

Depends where you’re from, we’re going to need A LOT more power for the future tho

kane49

clearly AI filter, trump and elon are A LOT fatter.

x2manypips

Dude it’s only getting started. If you just try and understand what is needed for AI, you would understand we need A LOT more memory. There you go

flop_plop

No clue, but finviz is amazing for finding info and scanning. A LOT of ways to filter what you’re looking for, depending on your edge

Realanise1

I'll admit, I laughed. But seriously, I think that the issue right now, as of today, is a lot more specific than a general idea about stocks being overvalued. Here's what it is. If the Iran situation isn't resolved soon, the supply shock will end up hitting wealthier countries like the US. I do not believe that it will be resolved soon. I do believe that the strait will never open up again in exactly the same way that it was before this entire disaster started. That is *my* belief and YMMV. But I think there's a lot of very unrealistic thinking about this issue. Here's one good example that I found today: "The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest STEO report that global Oil trade and output may not return to pre-war levels until late 2026 or early 2027. The agency **assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed through late May before gradually reopening in June and normalizing later in 2026."** I would bet a lot-- a LOT-- on none of that happening in the way that they think it will. The traffic won't "normalize" if by that, you mean that it will be open in the same way that it used to be. There is an excellent chance that Iran will be controlling that strait for the foreseeable future. They certainly have a plan for it. [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-creates-new-agency-to-control-shipping-in-strait-of-hormuz-while-reviewing-peace-deal-with-u-s](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-creates-new-agency-to-control-shipping-in-strait-of-hormuz-while-reviewing-peace-deal-with-u-s) So what this ends up meaning is that there are real, objective, outside-of-Trump's-control reasons for markets to run into some real issues later this year. Maybe that will present some good buying opportunities. I'm going to wait and see and not increase my investments in the market until we all know more about how this situation is going to play out. Again, YMMV. [https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-oil-prices-remain-underpinned-by-hormuz-tensions-and-tighter-supply-outlook-202605121732](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-oil-prices-remain-underpinned-by-hormuz-tensions-and-tighter-supply-outlook-202605121732)

Babyfat101

My original post got deleted due to SA link. Go to seeking alpha dot com. Look for article by Publius “CVR Energy Poised To Soar”. Due to the war, crack spreads are incredibly high. Q2+ will be very nice. There’s A LOT of comments. Suggest after reading article to read the author’s comments, especially in the last day or so. I’ve backed the truck up (weeks ago). GL.

Sensitive-Heron-2524

"high-risk experienced trader" is a funny way of saying that you need to be prepared to lose A LOT of money haha

OtisB

I think you misunderstand - MSFT has a LOT more experience weathering fads and ups and downs in tech than many of these other companies. They've made the correct choices over and over again and while they're not making headlines this month, they also won't be bankrupt like many of their competitors of yesteryear are. If that's sitting on laurels, then so be it but to me it looks like they've chosen the cautious route which given the sheer stupidity of the AI market is looking more and more like the right choice.

Doctor-MTJ

I have 120 different Dividend producing stocks across MANY different sectors ( Real Estate and Mortgage REITS and A LOT of energy stocks, Medical services/Drug stocks as well as midstream energy transportation, Utilities, Miners/ natural resouces, etc) I use Seeking Alpha which is a great service that help you access this kind of info.

SleepyMonkey7

People are really bad at probabilities and causation. Like really fucking bad. And this applies to the vast majority of people, including people you think are "smart" people. A lot of the things you associate as A caused B (a LOT, probably most), is actually closer to random, you just don't know it.

Impressive_Order60

There are a LOT of bubble stocks. A lot of shit thrown around on WSB, and lots of companies with $100Ms or less in revenue / not profitable and trading at crazy multiples. MU is not that. $22B revenue quarter where earnings grew faster than sales, huge order backlog, huge potential for $150B+ 12 month revenues with $50B+ in earnings . If you can’t tell the difference then you’re going to end up a bag holder on one of the shitty pumps. Good luck and god speed.

notquitenuts

I’ve taught a LOT of people how to trade and understand options and despite my warnings they almost invariably come up with some scheme they think will provide free money, as if they alone, with 3 weeks of studying, have figured out a way to get “free money” that no other trader in history has thought of 😂.

CCWaterBug

Frankly I've done a LOT MORE swing.trading under this president.   Then again the jumps have pushed me that way, like you buy something at $90 looking for 110 in a year and it's there 2 months later, sell (at least some) My brokerage are like 90% under 1 year held right now, it's a weird tax quandary.  I have a lot of stuff I'd like to shave down on coming up in July.

IllGene2373

META glasses are superior IMO, that’s what I see being used for social media videos a LOT more

Far-Guava6006

The question you should be asking is, why hasn't this already been arbitraged down by HFT firms? The market is pricing that combo at 9% potential returns for a few reasons. 1. Your QQQ equivalence is an estimate, and it experiences drag as the ETF has management fees. There's a low, (but non-zero) reality where the Nasdaq ends lower than it started, and your puts expire within the strikes, resulting in a net loss. 2. Liquidity and platform fees. (Where a LOT of arbitrage goes to die) 3. Potential regulatory actions on prediction markets. If you can get filled on all sides, survive the bid-ask spreads, survive the platform fees, assume the tracking error risk, and assume the prediction market platform risk, the market is pricing a potential 9% for that.

CD274

Yeah that added a lot of "it probably won't fall and definitely wont be allowed to fail" but the actual company has been restructuring a LOT

mohelgamal

This time there is no end in sight, usually when there is an increase in demand, you are talking about just a marginal increase in the amount required, just a gentle up swing of the curve. On the consumer side, it tools us years to go from 8gb being the standard to 16gb and up until a couple of years ago people argued that 32gb is an overkill But AI just opened a flood gate of need for massive ram requirements at all levels, not just the server market, but also consumer side and in desktop , laptop and handheld. Every body is now developing AI assured operating systems and want on device AI. And that requires A LOT of ram to useful. So in the next couple of years we will be seeing people getting 128 gb rams if they want their emails summarized correctly on the fly without having to go through a backend service.

n1ck90z

Ok, but to get to the same PE either SPY needs to rise A LOT or the earnings need to tank. In the dotcom case there were never high earnings, just high valuations

IncidentSome4403

I have WM in my portfolio and it has been a staple for the past 5 years, was absolutely wonderful to see it stay flat or even slightly in the green in 2022 while everything else was getting destroyed. It’s not a cyclical sector. There is of course the very basic “trash is always getting produced and needs to be picked up” argument. But another thing you need to consider is landfill scarcity. There is limited landfill space and our production of waste isn’t slowing down. Companies like WM and RSG own A LOT of the non-muni owned landfill real estate in North America (in the U.S. especially). Also regarding your disappointment at how it’s been performing recently, don’t even worry about it. This is just sector rotation, we’re in a very risk-on market right now with the semi trade still being hot. You will be very grateful to have a stake in this sector when we inevitably experience another risk-off period.

Alrvd83

Re read the post my friend. I started with 100. I made a LOT more already.

AtomicSymphonic_2nd

I’m gonna guess that a LOT of bears and shorts out there very much thought the AI bubble was gonna pop over the summer… maybe due to the Iran war. I don’t blame ya… seems like quite a few seasoned traders judged the market wrong, especially Intel. lol The fundamentals and what the market is doing now is completely disconnected. And I don’t see this reversing any time soon because Intel is literally bringing more fab capacity online. Seems like way too many businesses out there want their own on-premises AI solution instead of paying for subscriptions from Anthropic or Google. Lol

DisjointedHuntsville

This isn't advice, what some people like to do is to take atleast their initial capital out when the returns are triple digit percentage (double or more) so you have something on the sidelines for a correction if it comes. Some people like to have a set target return. For example, the S&P 500 averages about 20% return every year. If you're beating that, you're already doing good. If you have access to a chatbot like Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT, they can be really good to ***interpret*** charts, but careful about using them to validate your own bias. Ask it for example things like what is the average PE ratio for stocks right now and what the earnings potential for MU looks like in the immediate future and you'll be surprised at how much information it can summarize. I recommend Grok since its the only one of those that has proper realtime information and searches through a LOT more links before replying. Also, just saw you're a part of some military finance subs, so, Thank You for your service 🙏

DisjointedHuntsville

Anyone telling you to buy something that 7x-ed in a few months does not have your best interests at heart. The first rule in the markets is : **DON'T GET WIPED OUT**. There will always be pullbacks, corrections and buying opportunities. Its then down to your risk profile and investment horizon if you want to risk a 50%-80% wipeout scenario in exchange for a chance at a 30%-100% potential gain. Stay safe out there . . there's a LOT of FOMO.

Outrageous_Ad6085

I do travel a LOT as part of our work with the Funds but I still make it a priority to be on as many investor dinner calls as I can. We have a large team and they are very capable of handling it workout me. I live in Frisco, Texas outside of Dallas and I’m easy to find. Lunch is on me if you are in the area.

GatorBo69

Right?!? Like I’ve spent my 10 years of my life DCA into the stock market into the top 10 ETFs and then around 5 years ago moved to Fisher Investments (while keeping my own $100k portfolio so I could see if could “beat them”) and they have consistently produced ridiculous 25% consistent returns. That alone has me at 45 set for life and I could retire right now if I wanted. But I missed out on Bitcoin, NVIDIA, AMD, all of these companies that have made people rich overnight and I finally got my moment with VCX. But not only did I make a nice $250k from a $10k investment, I have a solid amount of restricted shares from only $50k that’s worth $600k. Now a LOT could change when the lockup period ends but I don’t plan on selling any shares this year bc their tax implications would be more ridiculous than they already are for me, lol. I plan on holding for a long time, especially now that Anthropic made that deal with SpaceX and VCX is most likely to double their exposure to SpaceX just like they doubled their OpenAI exposure. This has been one of the best speculative plays I’ve ever made for someone who has “played it safe” for my entire investing career. lol But it’s also a testament to the market these past 10 years and how if you simply consistently invested in the market into the right stocks and funds, you’d be set without taking any risks.

Thin_Cat8817

consider it an expensive lesson and move forward. just dont do the same stupid shit that got you here. it's only a failure if you dont learn from it. you have a LOT of time ahead to make up for it

HigherGroundHoonigan

I know A LOT of people who are struggling immensely in this economy. One of the first things they stopped doing was maintaining their medical card and even buying medical marijuana in general. Majority of the users I know are young millennials or older who are working professionals and use it for anxiety, sleep issues, or pain and it's something they can "do without" due to rising costs of everything. ' My guess is that their declining revenue is largely attributable to that. The other part would be the CBD/THC drinks. And honestly, I get it. I have my medical card but 9 times out of 10, I pop open a Keef /Onward or put some Nowadays in a soda. AU would is their golden ticket if we can ever get there.

ekemp

That kid is owed a LOT of royalties.

TendstobeRight85

You really suck at answering promptly or intelligently. >unemployment is scorched earth, they will turn over uranium or face extinction. You realize that this is a fatalistic culture that believes when they end, the world ends, and what follows is paradise, right? >Every president since Clinton has talked about the problem they are or were And every other president wasnt stupid enough to try to do this, because economically, they can suffer longer than our population will tolerate, and militarily, it will take a LOT more cost in lives and money than any intelligent leader would accept. But then again, we are stuck with Trump, so who knows. Intelligence or caring about his country clearly isnt something he does.

TiredTired99

I've seen a LOT of comparisons to 1999 lately. Like, getting into the details in articles, podcasts, and video essays. Not just off-hand comments.

Brewermcbrewface

My buddy that just came from a ship is saying that the death toll is a LOT higher than what they are saying

Senpai_Slime

A LOT of calls getting rinsed on that one lol

sandygws

\*Buying. There will be a LOT of bagholders when the War (re)starts next week.