LOT

Valkyrie_Skuld

also the country is in debt like A LOT of debt

Rock_or_Rol

Tbf Texas does use a LOT of renewables and we’re amongst the forefront of SMR technology. Texas is in a unique position to lead energy development (I’m not sure about geothermal) because of elemental exposure, gargantuan production facilities (chemical plants, refineries etc) and we’re on our own grid. The economics and independence are there.

omni_wisdumb

He gambled and got lucky but also didn't profit at all what he's claiming. Do not get into this, especially when you don't even understand the basics, you will lose everything. The same way you can gain a lot you can actually end up owing a LOT more than your initial "investment"/bet. You can turn that $700 into -$100,000 that you will legally be liable for.

reflect-the-sun

There are a LOT of potential clientele for you here masquerading as ballsy tech bros in Patagonia jackets.  All they really want is for a hairy bear to tell them they're loved.

GrindrOfficial

A while back, a very large financial firm told me that they could not work with Grindr because Grindr “was about sex.” My response was that this is fundamentally homophobic, because what makes me (and our users) different from everyone else is that we are homosexual – aka it is our sex that differentiates us. So that is what makes us different as a product. But Grindr as a product is also built very differently – it is an open architecture product, meaning anyone can talk to anyone vs. only people you are matched with. The result is a LOT more engagement on the product, with an average user sending 50 messages a day. And people use Grindr for many other things than dating. We are more of a social network for gay people vs. a dating product, and we are now starting to build business to support all these different use cases, starting with health care. So thinking of us as a dating app is really not right.

ZeroSumTruths

Oh BOY, A LOT of long term investors created again on a Friday

redfoobar

Yes, real P/E is more like 30 and they highly depend on **two** customers for their cloud revenues growth. Oh and those two customers? OpenAI and Anthropic. I am sure they will survive in some form or another but it still has a LOT of room to go down.

Haunting-Top-968

Someone else said this and i think it sums it up pretty well. More likely this is triggered by investors realizing that the AI industry, which everybody hates but chuds and billionaires, was almost entirely dependent on having a favorable political environment. That is now gone. AI and its attendant infrastructure are now going to face a LOT more friction than they did before, and their value proposition is not looking quite so rosy. To which I say: Good. Fuck them. Pop that bubble!

WillBellJr

Would you feel better if Democrats DIDN'T do it? Would it make a difference?? If a person doesn't shyt does that make them a GOD?? There's a LOT of untold stuffs that's being done everywhere in these governments, pretty much destroying this world - it ALL needs to be rooted out before it's too late. 😒

lemurtowne

The pushback is that data centers don't bring durable jobs after the construction is done. And even if there are myriad projects in the pipeline, that doesn't impact the market impact of a LOT of newly-elected officials (Texas especially) calling for a complete moratorium on the buildout.

ProfessionalStand779

They actually are. However, they would need to grow a LOT in order to keep making money in the future also.

HeckinCornball

Not just Republicans. I made a LOT of money following Paul Pelosi's trades. The entire system is corrupt.

Ticksdonthavelymph

Yall I lost a lot A LOT of money today. Worst day since 2020 on my port

Silent_Squirrelz

I’ll tell you..There’s about be A LOT OF INVESTIGATIONS and they elites are pulling their money and running…also probably numbers have alll be faked/inflated like what Russia did when their market crashed..they hid it from their people to keep from mass panic…its same same

Constant_Bit4676

I agree that we should be focused on green energy for this, I just also don't think that people realize that datacenter scaling is not going anywhere even IF we completely stop all AI development. I work in the sustainable energy field for DCs, there is still a LOT of money being dumped into it, not enough, but it is probably more than most people are aware of. I just wish we could have realistic conversations about the subject. The idea of stopping it entirely isn't going to work, we should be enforcing serious regulations to ensure that we mitigate the societal and ecological impact that we face without shooting ourselves in the foot and shutting down the biggest sector of the economy.

andrevanduin_

Fantastic news! Hopefully it will go down a LOT further.

Vividcalf253

I am going to say this again and it will probably be gone because of the sea of panic. This is going to go A LOT lower at some point. Republicans are now going to blame the democrats for high inflation as usual and now they are going to add the 401k/Stocks blame too. I am certain Trump and his dumb ass group unloaded overnight which is why its tanking hard. Maybe I am sniffing the glue too hard......Just going to DCA until the orange man is gone.

mvw2

There's a big assumption that a Democratic lead Congress plus a possibly impeached Trump may slam the brakes on AI infrastructure progress. Oversight and regulation will come. Tax breaks will stop. Review of how data was collected and "paid" for will be reviewed. There may even be concerns about the corporations themselves, even as far as some new requirements to possibly even break up companies. You might not think of it this way, but within the realm of possibility is breaking up Nvidia. I'm not saying the probability is higher than 0.0001%, but it and so many other things are now not zero. There's massive concern about trajectory because ALL the profits are effectively future facing. So much of this is propped up on future production and speciation of what both can happen and what might possibly happen over the next several years. Even something simple as energy infrastructure and the rubber stamp handwaving of Republican majorities are now gone. What do you do when you can't power your fab for 3 years while you sit on debt? Now what happens when 3 years turns to 10 years while sitting on the same debt? A LOT of the wealth is forecasted and on a foot to the floor flat out racing progression all regulation and oversight be damned. That now can't be the reality. This is where we now get to see what happens when debt stays debt for several times longer than planned.

Ulexes

More likely this is triggered by investors realizing that the AI industry, which everybody hates but chuds and billionaires, was almost entirely dependent on having a favorable political environment. That is now gone. AI and its attendant infrastructure are now going to face a LOT more friction than they did before, and their value proposition is not looking quite so rosy. To which I say: Good. Fuck them. Pop that bubble!

Sagonator

0 clue why you are being downvoted. AI can do a lot of things, but currently the worst thing that happens is people just using the tech to literally just vibe code features into existing big projects without even bothering to check up after as long is it looks like it works. AI SLOPS A LOT IN THE CODE. Making it practically unreadable for a human. I honestly fine if the project is completely vibe coded, I couldn't care, because i don't have to support absolute slop of a code. All of the good practices that developers are thought to use, AI just slops them in without any oversight.

Itsgoingtobefineok

A LOT of money

Weldrom

Damn, big ass projection there bucko. A fucking LOT of people want prosecutions to start getting thrown out. You're just worried because 'muh portfolio'

Happydumptruck

Some of it will be exactly for those people who can’t operate windows. It’s pretty much bringing the incapable people into a realm where they think they’re competent. I think there’s a LOT of money in that.

mapoftasmania

VIX breaks above 25 and this will get a LOT worse

sadscully

im pretty mad at the datacenter builders and a lot of this is their fault. they kept putting these grotesque behemoths right in people's backyards. AND A LOT OF THEM. of course people are getting mad. and also in northern virginia? where people are wealthy, politically engaged, and have the resources to do something about it. SO STUPID.

Brilliant_Object_847

Holy shit guys, are you aware that SNDK and MU are down a LOT!?

sloanemonroe

How much did tech go up under Biden? A LOT

CommercialWinter6900

People tend to forgot that these “rich” people get subsidize by us tax payers by A LOT!

Valkyrie_Skuld

yeah so I don't think tech can be dead just yet unless it crashes before then and then A LOT of shit will be dead which I think is was the crash tantrum last night was prevented

OrangeForeva

He didn't full port. He can spend a LOT more :kek: :rich:

sonofalando

The bears owe the banks A LOT of money. Maybe they can manifest?

Tallwhitedude123

A lot. Look at MSFT earlier in the year. Nobody would touch it. I remember when it plunged all the way to $350. The market is wrong A LOT

DynoJoe27

I mean Semi's went parabolic, so it can go A LOT lower

Snoo_46473

Amd has fallen a LOT

Severe-Chain-1162

Yea I don’t think people realise that they aren’t richer/poorer until they realise their profit/loss. While it’s still tied up in a security it’s functionally useless (unless you’ve a LOT of stock, then it’s collateral for some banks)

TickTockTaudit

I’ve got A LOT of TQQQ and 11/5 calls

FinePerformance1046

Believe it or not, earnings reports matter A LOT when you announce that you’re a dog shit company that can’t grow during the biggest tech boom in history

Successful-Tea-5733

Reddit was getting a lot of traffic by people searching for things then clicking reddit to read about it. Now, AI summarizes the data they are collecting from reddit but then reddit doesn't get the clicks and users don't see the ads. Same thing with GOOG. I have a client who has historically spent a LOT of money advertising on google, writing long form articles that get clicks and lead to sales converted on their website. Now AI just summarizes his long form articles, they don't get the clicks or the conversions. Both Reddit and google have to figure out how to preserve advertising while also competing with Chat GPT. I don't know that either has the answer. Personally I bought the dip on GOOG because they are much more diversified (You Tube, Waymo, Android, etc).

DiscountAcrobatic356

Agreed. My teenage son uses ChatGPT a LOT. Gemini or whatever they call it is never gonna be the defacto go to like Google is for search. No moat, much lower ROI. So yeah, lower stock price. 

BetterBudget

I have yet to talk to a single person on Reddit with an actual edge there's a couple on Twitter/X like the ex market makers but they are rich so they don't have incentive to try hard but make enough so at the end of the day, what every trader should do is take the time to reverse engineer all the trading happening all the systems (markets), players.. what are they trading and how? ultimately there's music in the air and you need to hone in on it... and here's the kicker that no one here on Reddit gets it right... technical analysis is not enough. that's the smallest part of any actual DD. so the shit news is.... most do not have the time and energy to reverse engineer markets to understand them enough to play the game like the big boys. there's just too many moving parts for a regular Joe working a regular job to figure it out. you might get lucky but if you want to day trade... you have A LOT to figure out. the other choice is to find someone who has... good luck filtering out the grifters, larpers and charlatans.... but follow results, not metaphorical blow jobs of random people sucking you off for attention and good will farming. personally, I've stopped trying to get people to use my quant models and I just trade it myself. sometimes I hint on my Twitter/X.. if you want proof of results, you can check that out but I'm the only person so far I've seen on Reddit to have an actual edge that is repeatable. I live off day trading. I follow a multi dimensional approach to it that uses models to inform myself on various dimensions of risk from geo-politics to macro to market volatility etc do yourself a favor, and don't ask redditors for help on this... they will lead you astray and fill you with their insecurities to act like you know when you don't which is one of the most foolish things you can do when starting out. all that shit aside, it's fun man when you figure it out.. have the odds on your side and it's not too hard but like I said, it takes a lot of time to figure it out so you can do yourself or pay someone to do it for you and good luck finding someone like me. best wishes

Syllabub_Visual

I actually find my own story of how I made my fortune intellectually satisfying. I never built a major corporation or created a globally known product and I’m certainly not Bezos, but instead I took advantage of the ai landscape to create a narrow software tool that I marketed through the Facebook groups and also hired a marketing guy in Pakistan and then ended up getting a sufficiently large number of users to the point that the advertisers we COLD EMAILED were willing to pay us real money, then we sold it to a very very small private equity fund that nobody has ever heard of, but nevertheless it gave me FU money. This is how A LOT of ai wealth is gonna be created and small ai startups are a much better investment than all these fraudulent chip stocks because the supply chain is eventually gonna catch up and public markets will be a thing of the past.

bubblegum-rose

“long term” doing a LOT of heavy lifting here

Syllabub_Visual

You know, defense spending is really good for the markets, both at home and abroad. It’s a $950 billion industry that’s created millions of jobs and they’re actively HIRING while big tech is laying off. Anyone complaining about it is being lame because the markets would be A LOT lower without it. The defense and oil companies are gonna continue to do extremely well and anyone who complains about Israel is being lame too because regardless of your politics, the us surely benefits from having a stable partner in the Middle East who can ensure we get our fair share of the oil revenue. Notice how this war has NOT caused the markets to crash like everyone said it was. Plus these companies literally need software engineers to help them modernize with AI and nobody wants to talk about that.

TickTockTaudit

Don’t forget there’s a LOT of mechanical buybacks before EOY

Happy-Champion1661

uncertainty will be over in a couple of days anyway and people will buy back in unless some major disaster happens. The odds are good to buy now I think, I cannot predict what will happen but price is A LOT lower than 2-3weeks ago so why not start buying here

fartpooppee420

I drink 8 liters of diet soda per day. 2 2-liters of diet soda in the morning to afternoon and 2 2-liters from 5pm til bedtime. I've lost a LOT of weight but I've started getting severe diarrhea all day long and I think the diet soda is causing it, but I don't want to stop. Is there rehab for soda?

crazyfool319

you are right that that if the Reps win AI stocks will do well. but there's A LOT of fear as seen on Friday since they are down in the polls. that's why I was talking about a Dem hedge in my post whether it's with weed stocks, clean energy or whatever. I think weed is the strongest.

dreaming2live

The licensing deals with OpenAI and Google expire early 2027. Reddit has a ton of leverage. Whichever company, if any, gets access to Reddit corpus will have a significant competitive advantage. Reddit is worth A LOT more. The fact this community exists here, and you and I are posting here. The moat is immense

drazayn99

Trying to IPO for around $1.5T. At that scale, meaningful growth in the valuation should theoretically require a LOT to go right. I am not betting on that happening any time soon. Staying the fuck away, and, might buy puts if it runs post IPO.

Moist_Airport1213

1) Insane spend and no real path to profitability 2) The underlying product (people are realizing the use-case for AI is not nearly as impressive as it’s made out to be, and even if it was it would be extremely difficult for organizations to deploy at scale) 3) No real moat 4) The math just doesn’t make sense. I know this is extremely broad and going into detail would be a book I don’t want to write right now. But this IPO reeks of a liquidity event for execs and institutions rather than an investment opportunity for the public. That said, I don’t see how major investors like Google, could reduce their exposure without sinking the stock. —— What Anthropic does is impressive, that is for sure. But it’s expensive and it won’t get much cheaper. Data centers, compute, internet services, etc. are inherently expensive and powerful AI models use A LOT of it. Also, a lot of this will likely need to stay domestic for security and regulatory purposes, so offshore cost-savings will be unlikely. Enterprises will not be able to sustain such a cost if they truly want to deploy an AI workforce, which is driving a lot of Anthropic’s value proposition. Also, it will get regulated. It takes one politician to place limits on AI in the workforce for the firm’s value proposition to sink. It will happen if Anthropic’s models truly disrupt the workforce like it is being speculated. But what about non-enterprise situations you may ask? Well first, 99.9% of AI/Tech companies are focused on enterprise use cases. They care more about that than individual users. Anyway, the average individual user does not require nearly as much as what Anthropic is currently working on. And for what individual users need (search, document review, basic math, etc.) there are already many players that can meet their needs for a fraction of the cost. And those functions alone are not worth this valuation. —— This is just speculation, but I see a major correction coming within a few years. AI models will develop to insane levels, but that’s not relevant to the average user. What you, I, and the average person will use AI for is essentially what we already have. Something to take care of tedious work tasks, organize our lives a little bit, and answer some unusual questions. We essentially got an upgraded Microsoft Office Suite.

Syllabub_Visual

Still at the club in Miami on Halloween. There A LOT of hot Latinas here and most aren’t even wearing costumes like the white chicks. They’re wearing hot pants and crop tops. Here’s my chance to come up and say hi. I just have to tell them about my father and maybe just MAYBE they’ll say yes…

zer00eyz

Your way way way underselling how screwed up it all is. The cost of training is going down, the cost of tokens is going down. By some measures Anthropics $4 for a million tokens could be .02, and that would have 4x margins! AI is code from academics that got sold to the public 4 years ago - it's now having actual engineering done to it and shockingly we're finding tons of ways to be more efficient. (Note: the gains arent coming from AI working on AI, they are coming from good design and engineering). Every one built assuming they were going to be first and AGI was going to show up - a winner take all situation. But that turned out to not be the case (and the smart people in the room knew that all along). Now it looks more like the dot com fiber build out - we have a LOT of compute and some of it is sitting on the shelf unused. Everyone paid too much for it because hype. The moment that loop breaks (and it will) the whole thing is a debt bomb and a lot of write downs. There will be losers: my guess is the big one will be meta because everything zuckerbug touches turns to shit (oculus, metaverse, glasses). His track record on internal development at FB (vs buying someone else) should tell you that AI is going to be a disaster before it's "useful".

AspiringHippie123

Well I would start off with borrowing a LOT of money and spending it on 0dte, your luck has to come back at some point right? Or you could pay back what you owe and stick to reliable ETFs / SP500 if you actually want to grow your money.

Happy-Champion1661

For RDDT, I range-traded 150–180 in June/July, sold some in the 200s, then bought the post-earnings-drop at 153 avg in premkt (but the actual bottom was 135). It made sense for me to bet on S&P inclusion. I got MRVL right the previous time. Last 3months RDDT just traded in 140–160 range, I was waiting for AI deals. I dont really believe in any stonk in particular, I try to find things where "the market is wrong" or there is a catalyst coming. I am contrarian. Here the price is clearly disconnected from reality. It doesnt mean it will go up but the probability of that happening is higher than just buying calls on some random shit. Sentiment was always bad but I saw A LOT OF people finally selling and letting it go on Friday. That means capitulation to me.

zer00eyz

Oh the smart customers are hip. We had 100 sales this month and meta says they are responsible for 85 of them, Google says 75, and our third party targeting says 30/100 (direct vs impression). There is also a shit ton of political money in the pipe this quarter, and the holiday seasons is coming up. I suspect that by the middle of next year (assuming consumer sentiment does not collapse, and that means the price of oil has to go DOWN) - the ad bubble pops. There are a LOT of non ad brands that exist and continue to grow at a frightening rate.

Earth2Andy

No we can’t, but here’s what we do know. The AI labs with access to frontier models not available to the public yet are hiring more and more engineers and product and program managers. They haven’t found a way to replace their own teams, so it’s safe to assume nobody else is going to figure it out in the next 12 months. We also know that only 28% of companies who have implemented bit AI transformations have seen positive ROI. It’s a very promising technology, but it’s priced like it’s replacing a LOT of jobs, and it’s not delivering on the hype in the timelines predicted.

_Thermalflask

But how much can you extrapolate that? It's not going to grow at thaf rate every year, and a LOT of that type of growth is already priced in

Friendly_Break196

In 2019 yes. In 2026, I’m more likely to just ask AI now. I think you guys are overestimating Reddit’s worth by A LOT. Especially with how much this site has continued on downward spiral the past couple years without signs of the situation improving.

Emilio___Molestevez

literal genius expert: if we spend this money on AI we will make A LOT more money Hunter, Wesleyan College School of Humanities class of 2018 (GPA 2.3), whose dad got him hired despite a DUI and MDMA possession charge during Grad Week at Choate: 🤔 no

skeletor00

"[D.R. Horton](https://www.drhorton.com/), the nation’s largest homebuilder by volume, has [signed](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/promise-robotics-expands-physical-ai-production-infrastructure-for-us-homebuilding-through-multi-year-commercial-agreement-with-dr-horton-302906542.html) a multiyear commercial agreement with [Promise Robotics](https://promiserobotics.com/) to use the startup’s robotic factory capacity on more than 1,250 homes." [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TD59b7padvI](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TD59b7padvI) AI robots frame a house in 1 day instead of a crew of humans taking 2-4 weeks. There are a LOT of AI robotics companies actively solving manual labor. Try doing a little research before you talk like a monkey.

TheNplus1

PSA: ACN has been up 55% in the past 3 months and still has A LOT of recovering to do. But you dorks keep looking at memory stocks, it’s fine for me!

copperblood

Because that's where the money is. That's A HUGE reason why META and Alphabet are profitable. Period. When when Anthropic decides not to go after the advertising money, while their competition is and their competition is A LOT more established than they are it makes it that much more difficult for Anthropic to be a viable company. As it currently stands, Anthropic is $80 billion in debt = not viable. Anthropic is rushing to be a publicly traded company so they can retail investor's money and tap into the infinite money glitch that Elon has been doing with Tesla and SpaceX. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Current_Sock1483

They are about to require a login to even read stuff on reddit because otherwise Google AI search will keep eating into their search visibility. The unfortunate part is that Google search visibility was driving 1/3 of the traffic. And that's both new user and retention traffic. That means they will have to rely mostly on their mobile app to actively retain users over the long term. In order to create any compelling vision for this discussion plarform you're looking for, they will need to put in A LOT of work while bleeding users for quite a while. I don't see the network effects required to keep the growth going and this means cost will increase a lot in order to maintain revenue growth at the preferred rate.

yahooms

This is the end Hold your breath and count to ten Feel the SPY move, and then Hear my heart burst again For this is the end I've drowned and dreamt this moment So overdue, I owe them Swept away, I'm stolen (A LOT OF MONEY)

kuteguy

I knew Trump was going to have a BIG win - I put a LOT of money in the betting market and was rewarded handsomely

jrex035

Correct, the worst energy crisis in history no less, and one that will get worse with a resumption of open conflict. Iran can do a LOT more to damage oil infrastructure and energy flows across the Gulf, it's held off thus far to give itself escalation options and push Trump to negotiate. If the war resumes with strikes on Iranian leadership, economic, and energy sites all bets are off. And this time we don't have a massive buffer of oil and refined products in storage like we did at the beginning of the war.

Taraih

In a german subreddit I pointed something similar out when they talked about health care cost. Our gov doesnt substitute the money for migrants even though they promised it. I pointed that out as an additional problem that wasnt listed yet. Got perma banned for hate speech shortly after. These examples show you why you should never invest in this platform. Its shitty management goes from the bottom to the top. You can say a LOT worse things on many platforms or in games and you usually get a mute or maybe a complete timeout for a week or so thats it. Shows you how extreme out of control modding is on reddit. So the current price action is nothing else than karma for reddit. Fuck this company, hopefully it drops more and gets bought out by someone who has a brain and cleans house.

Syllabub_Visual

There’s A LOT of oil in Alaska…

Syllabub_Visual

Nobody gonna take issue with the fact that shoomer pulled off a complete fraud in Alaska to put a Democratic plant on the ballot? Oh well it’s just a giant ice sheet so it’s not like anyone should care. ON THE OTHER HAND, there’s A LOT of oil up there that’s probably gonna get unleashed so I’m bullish on the price of oil.

Syllabub_Visual

Funny that Reddit thinks 100k a year is rich when that’s 1 in 3.3 people working 30+ hours a week (very low bar). That should also be seen as a GOOD thing because that’s A LOT of people investing into their 401k’s which means that the markets will continue to go up and that demand for oil will remain high. If only people realized simply how much money there is in the world up for grabs… https://preview.redd.it/idukhkcjdmyh1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65918664ced0cb0e93aef8c71764a7087d5b56b5

Happy-Champion1661

I kinda agree with you but I also think Jen will stop selling next months. I dont think it makes sense to sell anymore sub100. And it has like 20PE? growth is still super high, even if they got 0 growth it would be a fairly priced business imo my bull case hasn't really changed, imo this is an example on why full porting / buying OTM calls could sometimes lead to large losses. Cuz eventually I still think it goes up, A LOT. I think the real issue isn't RDDT but the tech market sentiment in general, there was no way rddt would go up when even INTC SNDK & friends tank this hard, unfortunately.

cuteman

Sure but add a bit of democracy to put the fear of uprising into mods and it would be constrained a bit. This neo feudal dictatorship reddit itself has set-up and allowed has become out of control and it's actively hurting reddit's bottom line in my opinion but of course you're right and the propaganda is worth a LOT

grumble11

Honestly the new models are pretty incredible. I can build tools in a day that used to take me two weeks. It is an insane productivity enhancer, completely changes how I will work in the future. Even if they don’t get much better from here, they will e mentally transform the workplace. It’s going to automate A LOT of jobs, millions of them.

spbaseball

 \#DonnyGreenCurtain can pull a LOT out of his zzz behind his green curtain of lies.

No_Cod972

Gonna be a LOT of rage quitting today and even more tomorrow!

StrangeContest4

I could be spending A LOT more because everything costs a lot more. Take it from a retired person on a fixed pension for 7 years. I finally had to break down and cut into the ol' 401K a few years ahead of plan. At least the gains I had made from the "golden" shower paid the early withdrawal penalties. Company investment? The company I retired from downsized 40,000 employees just last year.

bubblegum-rose

No. The AI bubble is letting out a LOT of air right now. Look at QQQ. The past three weeks have been a money shredder for people holding tech stocks, and it’s not going to get better soon.

FrankInPhilly

This Trump guy posts a LOT! He must be retired or be working part time to be able to post so much. Most of his stuff seems to be rambling, badly punctuated, or just outright dumb. I hope he gets the help he appears to need.

SevereRunOfFate

Bill liked to party. A LOT. So did his brother. A LOT. And it was July 4th weekend.

jrex035

That explains a lot, I'm very curious by nature and love to learn. I've learned a LOT about energy markets this year in particular, by necessity lmao. Wish I knew more sooner I could've saved a lot of money back in June. But yeah, agree 100% on bonds. I've tried to learn more about it but it's way too complicated, too boring, and its movements too opaque for me

hloop23

Simple econ buddy, reduce demand and those food companies arent going to grow like they did. They can try to charge more for less food, but when you lose interest in food you tend to buy the cheapest healthy stuff which have low margins. You do you but there are a LOT of better investments out their compared to food companies rn so shorting them isnt a wild take even if im not planning on doing that.

aniote

They still have a near monopoly on search, They have the #1 mobile OS, with almost zero competition (only Apple), a money printer They have #1 streaming platform, with no competition - a money printer They are #1 on cloud, #1 on digital ads, #2 on LLM usage, #1 No one thinks they're gonna win the AI race? what? They are already close to winning it, no one thinks they won't be among the top 2-3 players in the *worst possible case*, plus they're selling the shovels They have by far the most trusted brand among AI/Big tech (second only to Apple which isn't in the AI race - which counts A LOT when it comes to AI public adoption $100+B net income per year is not a cash juggernaut? They are a much, much, much, much better business than when they *only* dominated search, and are objectively, factually, the most profitable company in the entire world

bruns20

Ya and despite what reddit will tell you, the US still has a LOT of influence as well

SuperSultan

They still have a LOT of influence dude. It also doesn’t help they are partners with China whom have outshined the USSR

rundownweather

Realistically, we're going to be looking back at a LOT of things as massive mistakes, not just polymarket.

shmito17

Broke 200 SMA - it's going down A LOT more

ImAPonderer2

People gonna make A LOT more money every quarter by trading more and betting on prediction markets and options amirite? /s

Syllabub_Visual

The truth is that before now you could steal up to $1.5m from the government and they wouldn’t have prosecuted you according to jd. Seems like that’s gonna change and A LOT more people are going to prison.

PossibleSecretary524

for the very first time i really tempted to short this stock on IPO. I dont see reasonable leadership - Dario is borderline cult leader, i don't see moat - they have literally took half of OpenAI and made the very same thing a little bit different, i dont see strategy - they love to spook industries and started saasocalypsis with their messaging and stance. the model development is extremely expensive and unpredictable business - you throw in A LOT of compute with unclear goals and hopes and pray something interesting will return, and hopefully i will not kill us all. wdyt?

CavalrySavagery

Your point of view is autistic but the kind of autism that doesn’t let you see anything else other than what you think, without proper explanation. When you build something you are going to spend A LOT of money initially and then, ONLY THEN, you will start getting profit and that initial INSANE AMOUNT OF MONEY will turn into: regular maintenance and swap/material renewal. Am by no means smart or a business man but you are clearly even worse

Sufficient_Habit5091

Really thoughtful post thank you. Unfortunately A LOT of astroturfing by ANT pumpers here.

0xd3ad54311

The dotcom bubble was based on the internet. You may be familiar with it. People use it A LOT. It was still a bubble where a lot of companies with idiotic business plans and no path to profitability were basically shoveling money into a furnace. 26 years later, we're still using the internet and some of those defunct companies exist in other forms (Chewy seems like [Pets.com](http://Pets.com), [Kozmo.com](http://Kozmo.com) was essentially DoorDash) but it was still a bubble.

Dihedralman

He says on an online forum traded publicly. People actually use the internet. A LOT.  To the point where many retail models collapsed entirely.  The AI bubble won't be as big of a fall because many underlying players had excess capital going in. 

United_Branch_5736

Your subagent example actually supports the substitution case, not the frontier moat case. If Opus and Haiku subagents cuts cost by 50%, the savings come from moving most tokens off the frontier model. That’s the definition of substitution pressure if I ever saw one. And 50% is A LOT in corporate terms.

cal8282

Dotcom bubble was a based on overhyped hopes and dreams. People actually use AI. A LOT. What will eventually happen is it becomes a cheap commodity. Not sure how pure AI providers (Anthropic and OpenAI) will handle that.

PassableForAWombat

Your average oil trader. House wins a LOT there

antwanlb

Yep, the more i use claude, the more anthropic loses money. Thst's because i dont have a subscription. And if they make claude subscription only? Ill be forced to get an open source model. Km not the majority, but its crazy to assume there arent a LOT of people who do the same thing. The more useless ai i see on my tl, the more money i assume those companies are losing

WkndWarrior12345054

that is A LOT OF employees

ReturnOfBigChungus

The AI race from a technology standpoint is different than the market dynamics of current AI financing. The whole circular financing story is very real, and the risk that all this CapEx do not produce the projected financial productivity is very real. The issue is they're all locked in at this point - you HAVE to keep dumping cash in to stay competitive (or competitive-ish in Meta's case) in terms of model capability, but a new frontier model only keeps you near the lead for a few months. Then in 6 months, the model that you spent billions training is competing with a model that's delivering the same capability for 1/10th the price you would need to charge to recoup your costs. The bet is that they eventually produce something so capable that you just run away with the race, but unless you believe ASI is right around the corner it's more rational to look at the last few years of the economics and see that most of these models don't actually recoup cost. There's also legitimate risk in the way that AI companies are currently depreciating their hardware. They're using (mostly) ~6 year depreciation schedules, but the hardware is only economically productive for about 3 years, so there is a LOT of risk of future impairment charges which directly hits profit. The basis of the story is that frontier models are more expensive to build than the profit they generate. Add to that the fact that there's a huge amount of circular financing going on, and you have the potential for a vicious cycle on the way down if things stall out. These financing arrangement are essentially NVIDIA giving AI companies money to then buy their products. That works when everything is going well, but if things go a bit sideways it creates massive contagion. There's a very close parallel to the late 90s telco bubble which used nearly identical financing structures. It's not a guarantee that it's a bubble that's going to pop but it's a very precarious situation that is pricing in perfection against what are very likely optimistic projections on the economics.

Stonk_Trader69420

here it comes... :clifford: :clifford: :clifford: a LOT of sale action happening