LOT

bubblegum-rose

“long term” doing a LOT of heavy lifting here

Syllabub_Visual

You know, defense spending is really good for the markets, both at home and abroad. It’s a $950 billion industry that’s created millions of jobs and they’re actively HIRING while big tech is laying off. Anyone complaining about it is being lame because the markets would be A LOT lower without it. The defense and oil companies are gonna continue to do extremely well and anyone who complains about Israel is being lame too because regardless of your politics, the us surely benefits from having a stable partner in the Middle East who can ensure we get our fair share of the oil revenue. Notice how this war has NOT caused the markets to crash like everyone said it was. Plus these companies literally need software engineers to help them modernize with AI and nobody wants to talk about that.

TickTockTaudit

Don’t forget there’s a LOT of mechanical buybacks before EOY

Happy-Champion1661

uncertainty will be over in a couple of days anyway and people will buy back in unless some major disaster happens. The odds are good to buy now I think, I cannot predict what will happen but price is A LOT lower than 2-3weeks ago so why not start buying here

fartpooppee420

I drink 8 liters of diet soda per day. 2 2-liters of diet soda in the morning to afternoon and 2 2-liters from 5pm til bedtime. I've lost a LOT of weight but I've started getting severe diarrhea all day long and I think the diet soda is causing it, but I don't want to stop. Is there rehab for soda?

crazyfool319

you are right that that if the Reps win AI stocks will do well. but there's A LOT of fear as seen on Friday since they are down in the polls. that's why I was talking about a Dem hedge in my post whether it's with weed stocks, clean energy or whatever. I think weed is the strongest.

dreaming2live

The licensing deals with OpenAI and Google expire early 2027. Reddit has a ton of leverage. Whichever company, if any, gets access to Reddit corpus will have a significant competitive advantage. Reddit is worth A LOT more. The fact this community exists here, and you and I are posting here. The moat is immense

drazayn99

Trying to IPO for around $1.5T. At that scale, meaningful growth in the valuation should theoretically require a LOT to go right. I am not betting on that happening any time soon. Staying the fuck away, and, might buy puts if it runs post IPO.

Moist_Airport1213

1) Insane spend and no real path to profitability 2) The underlying product (people are realizing the use-case for AI is not nearly as impressive as it’s made out to be, and even if it was it would be extremely difficult for organizations to deploy at scale) 3) No real moat 4) The math just doesn’t make sense. I know this is extremely broad and going into detail would be a book I don’t want to write right now. But this IPO reeks of a liquidity event for execs and institutions rather than an investment opportunity for the public. That said, I don’t see how major investors like Google, could reduce their exposure without sinking the stock. —— What Anthropic does is impressive, that is for sure. But it’s expensive and it won’t get much cheaper. Data centers, compute, internet services, etc. are inherently expensive and powerful AI models use A LOT of it. Also, a lot of this will likely need to stay domestic for security and regulatory purposes, so offshore cost-savings will be unlikely. Enterprises will not be able to sustain such a cost if they truly want to deploy an AI workforce, which is driving a lot of Anthropic’s value proposition. Also, it will get regulated. It takes one politician to place limits on AI in the workforce for the firm’s value proposition to sink. It will happen if Anthropic’s models truly disrupt the workforce like it is being speculated. But what about non-enterprise situations you may ask? Well first, 99.9% of AI/Tech companies are focused on enterprise use cases. They care more about that than individual users. Anyway, the average individual user does not require nearly as much as what Anthropic is currently working on. And for what individual users need (search, document review, basic math, etc.) there are already many players that can meet their needs for a fraction of the cost. And those functions alone are not worth this valuation. —— This is just speculation, but I see a major correction coming within a few years. AI models will develop to insane levels, but that’s not relevant to the average user. What you, I, and the average person will use AI for is essentially what we already have. Something to take care of tedious work tasks, organize our lives a little bit, and answer some unusual questions. We essentially got an upgraded Microsoft Office Suite.

Syllabub_Visual

Still at the club in Miami on Halloween. There A LOT of hot Latinas here and most aren’t even wearing costumes like the white chicks. They’re wearing hot pants and crop tops. Here’s my chance to come up and say hi. I just have to tell them about my father and maybe just MAYBE they’ll say yes…

zer00eyz

Your way way way underselling how screwed up it all is. The cost of training is going down, the cost of tokens is going down. By some measures Anthropics $4 for a million tokens could be .02, and that would have 4x margins! AI is code from academics that got sold to the public 4 years ago - it's now having actual engineering done to it and shockingly we're finding tons of ways to be more efficient. (Note: the gains arent coming from AI working on AI, they are coming from good design and engineering). Every one built assuming they were going to be first and AGI was going to show up - a winner take all situation. But that turned out to not be the case (and the smart people in the room knew that all along). Now it looks more like the dot com fiber build out - we have a LOT of compute and some of it is sitting on the shelf unused. Everyone paid too much for it because hype. The moment that loop breaks (and it will) the whole thing is a debt bomb and a lot of write downs. There will be losers: my guess is the big one will be meta because everything zuckerbug touches turns to shit (oculus, metaverse, glasses). His track record on internal development at FB (vs buying someone else) should tell you that AI is going to be a disaster before it's "useful".

AspiringHippie123

Well I would start off with borrowing a LOT of money and spending it on 0dte, your luck has to come back at some point right? Or you could pay back what you owe and stick to reliable ETFs / SP500 if you actually want to grow your money.

Happy-Champion1661

For RDDT, I range-traded 150–180 in June/July, sold some in the 200s, then bought the post-earnings-drop at 153 avg in premkt (but the actual bottom was 135). It made sense for me to bet on S&P inclusion. I got MRVL right the previous time. Last 3months RDDT just traded in 140–160 range, I was waiting for AI deals. I dont really believe in any stonk in particular, I try to find things where "the market is wrong" or there is a catalyst coming. I am contrarian. Here the price is clearly disconnected from reality. It doesnt mean it will go up but the probability of that happening is higher than just buying calls on some random shit. Sentiment was always bad but I saw A LOT OF people finally selling and letting it go on Friday. That means capitulation to me.

zer00eyz

Oh the smart customers are hip. We had 100 sales this month and meta says they are responsible for 85 of them, Google says 75, and our third party targeting says 30/100 (direct vs impression). There is also a shit ton of political money in the pipe this quarter, and the holiday seasons is coming up. I suspect that by the middle of next year (assuming consumer sentiment does not collapse, and that means the price of oil has to go DOWN) - the ad bubble pops. There are a LOT of non ad brands that exist and continue to grow at a frightening rate.

Earth2Andy

No we can’t, but here’s what we do know. The AI labs with access to frontier models not available to the public yet are hiring more and more engineers and product and program managers. They haven’t found a way to replace their own teams, so it’s safe to assume nobody else is going to figure it out in the next 12 months. We also know that only 28% of companies who have implemented bit AI transformations have seen positive ROI. It’s a very promising technology, but it’s priced like it’s replacing a LOT of jobs, and it’s not delivering on the hype in the timelines predicted.

_Thermalflask

But how much can you extrapolate that? It's not going to grow at thaf rate every year, and a LOT of that type of growth is already priced in

Friendly_Break196

In 2019 yes. In 2026, I’m more likely to just ask AI now. I think you guys are overestimating Reddit’s worth by A LOT. Especially with how much this site has continued on downward spiral the past couple years without signs of the situation improving.

Emilio___Molestevez

literal genius expert: if we spend this money on AI we will make A LOT more money Hunter, Wesleyan College School of Humanities class of 2018 (GPA 2.3), whose dad got him hired despite a DUI and MDMA possession charge during Grad Week at Choate: 🤔 no

skeletor00

"[D.R. Horton](https://www.drhorton.com/), the nation’s largest homebuilder by volume, has [signed](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/promise-robotics-expands-physical-ai-production-infrastructure-for-us-homebuilding-through-multi-year-commercial-agreement-with-dr-horton-302906542.html) a multiyear commercial agreement with [Promise Robotics](https://promiserobotics.com/) to use the startup’s robotic factory capacity on more than 1,250 homes." [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TD59b7padvI](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TD59b7padvI) AI robots frame a house in 1 day instead of a crew of humans taking 2-4 weeks. There are a LOT of AI robotics companies actively solving manual labor. Try doing a little research before you talk like a monkey.

TheNplus1

PSA: ACN has been up 55% in the past 3 months and still has A LOT of recovering to do. But you dorks keep looking at memory stocks, it’s fine for me!

copperblood

Because that's where the money is. That's A HUGE reason why META and Alphabet are profitable. Period. When when Anthropic decides not to go after the advertising money, while their competition is and their competition is A LOT more established than they are it makes it that much more difficult for Anthropic to be a viable company. As it currently stands, Anthropic is $80 billion in debt = not viable. Anthropic is rushing to be a publicly traded company so they can retail investor's money and tap into the infinite money glitch that Elon has been doing with Tesla and SpaceX. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Current_Sock1483

They are about to require a login to even read stuff on reddit because otherwise Google AI search will keep eating into their search visibility. The unfortunate part is that Google search visibility was driving 1/3 of the traffic. And that's both new user and retention traffic. That means they will have to rely mostly on their mobile app to actively retain users over the long term. In order to create any compelling vision for this discussion plarform you're looking for, they will need to put in A LOT of work while bleeding users for quite a while. I don't see the network effects required to keep the growth going and this means cost will increase a lot in order to maintain revenue growth at the preferred rate.

yahooms

This is the end Hold your breath and count to ten Feel the SPY move, and then Hear my heart burst again For this is the end I've drowned and dreamt this moment So overdue, I owe them Swept away, I'm stolen (A LOT OF MONEY)

kuteguy

I knew Trump was going to have a BIG win - I put a LOT of money in the betting market and was rewarded handsomely

jrex035

Correct, the worst energy crisis in history no less, and one that will get worse with a resumption of open conflict. Iran can do a LOT more to damage oil infrastructure and energy flows across the Gulf, it's held off thus far to give itself escalation options and push Trump to negotiate. If the war resumes with strikes on Iranian leadership, economic, and energy sites all bets are off. And this time we don't have a massive buffer of oil and refined products in storage like we did at the beginning of the war.

Taraih

In a german subreddit I pointed something similar out when they talked about health care cost. Our gov doesnt substitute the money for migrants even though they promised it. I pointed that out as an additional problem that wasnt listed yet. Got perma banned for hate speech shortly after. These examples show you why you should never invest in this platform. Its shitty management goes from the bottom to the top. You can say a LOT worse things on many platforms or in games and you usually get a mute or maybe a complete timeout for a week or so thats it. Shows you how extreme out of control modding is on reddit. So the current price action is nothing else than karma for reddit. Fuck this company, hopefully it drops more and gets bought out by someone who has a brain and cleans house.

Syllabub_Visual

There’s A LOT of oil in Alaska…

Syllabub_Visual

Nobody gonna take issue with the fact that shoomer pulled off a complete fraud in Alaska to put a Democratic plant on the ballot? Oh well it’s just a giant ice sheet so it’s not like anyone should care. ON THE OTHER HAND, there’s A LOT of oil up there that’s probably gonna get unleashed so I’m bullish on the price of oil.

Syllabub_Visual

Funny that Reddit thinks 100k a year is rich when that’s 1 in 3.3 people working 30+ hours a week (very low bar). That should also be seen as a GOOD thing because that’s A LOT of people investing into their 401k’s which means that the markets will continue to go up and that demand for oil will remain high. If only people realized simply how much money there is in the world up for grabs… https://preview.redd.it/idukhkcjdmyh1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65918664ced0cb0e93aef8c71764a7087d5b56b5

Happy-Champion1661

I kinda agree with you but I also think Jen will stop selling next months. I dont think it makes sense to sell anymore sub100. And it has like 20PE? growth is still super high, even if they got 0 growth it would be a fairly priced business imo my bull case hasn't really changed, imo this is an example on why full porting / buying OTM calls could sometimes lead to large losses. Cuz eventually I still think it goes up, A LOT. I think the real issue isn't RDDT but the tech market sentiment in general, there was no way rddt would go up when even INTC SNDK & friends tank this hard, unfortunately.

cuteman

Sure but add a bit of democracy to put the fear of uprising into mods and it would be constrained a bit. This neo feudal dictatorship reddit itself has set-up and allowed has become out of control and it's actively hurting reddit's bottom line in my opinion but of course you're right and the propaganda is worth a LOT

grumble11

Honestly the new models are pretty incredible. I can build tools in a day that used to take me two weeks. It is an insane productivity enhancer, completely changes how I will work in the future. Even if they don’t get much better from here, they will e mentally transform the workplace. It’s going to automate A LOT of jobs, millions of them.

spbaseball

 \#DonnyGreenCurtain can pull a LOT out of his zzz behind his green curtain of lies.

No_Cod972

Gonna be a LOT of rage quitting today and even more tomorrow!

StrangeContest4

I could be spending A LOT more because everything costs a lot more. Take it from a retired person on a fixed pension for 7 years. I finally had to break down and cut into the ol' 401K a few years ahead of plan. At least the gains I had made from the "golden" shower paid the early withdrawal penalties. Company investment? The company I retired from downsized 40,000 employees just last year.

bubblegum-rose

No. The AI bubble is letting out a LOT of air right now. Look at QQQ. The past three weeks have been a money shredder for people holding tech stocks, and it’s not going to get better soon.

FrankInPhilly

This Trump guy posts a LOT! He must be retired or be working part time to be able to post so much. Most of his stuff seems to be rambling, badly punctuated, or just outright dumb. I hope he gets the help he appears to need.

SevereRunOfFate

Bill liked to party. A LOT. So did his brother. A LOT. And it was July 4th weekend.

jrex035

That explains a lot, I'm very curious by nature and love to learn. I've learned a LOT about energy markets this year in particular, by necessity lmao. Wish I knew more sooner I could've saved a lot of money back in June. But yeah, agree 100% on bonds. I've tried to learn more about it but it's way too complicated, too boring, and its movements too opaque for me

hloop23

Simple econ buddy, reduce demand and those food companies arent going to grow like they did. They can try to charge more for less food, but when you lose interest in food you tend to buy the cheapest healthy stuff which have low margins. You do you but there are a LOT of better investments out their compared to food companies rn so shorting them isnt a wild take even if im not planning on doing that.

aniote

They still have a near monopoly on search, They have the #1 mobile OS, with almost zero competition (only Apple), a money printer They have #1 streaming platform, with no competition - a money printer They are #1 on cloud, #1 on digital ads, #2 on LLM usage, #1 No one thinks they're gonna win the AI race? what? They are already close to winning it, no one thinks they won't be among the top 2-3 players in the *worst possible case*, plus they're selling the shovels They have by far the most trusted brand among AI/Big tech (second only to Apple which isn't in the AI race - which counts A LOT when it comes to AI public adoption $100+B net income per year is not a cash juggernaut? They are a much, much, much, much better business than when they *only* dominated search, and are objectively, factually, the most profitable company in the entire world

bruns20

Ya and despite what reddit will tell you, the US still has a LOT of influence as well

SuperSultan

They still have a LOT of influence dude. It also doesn’t help they are partners with China whom have outshined the USSR

rundownweather

Realistically, we're going to be looking back at a LOT of things as massive mistakes, not just polymarket.

shmito17

Broke 200 SMA - it's going down A LOT more

ImAPonderer2

People gonna make A LOT more money every quarter by trading more and betting on prediction markets and options amirite? /s

Syllabub_Visual

The truth is that before now you could steal up to $1.5m from the government and they wouldn’t have prosecuted you according to jd. Seems like that’s gonna change and A LOT more people are going to prison.

PossibleSecretary524

for the very first time i really tempted to short this stock on IPO. I dont see reasonable leadership - Dario is borderline cult leader, i don't see moat - they have literally took half of OpenAI and made the very same thing a little bit different, i dont see strategy - they love to spook industries and started saasocalypsis with their messaging and stance. the model development is extremely expensive and unpredictable business - you throw in A LOT of compute with unclear goals and hopes and pray something interesting will return, and hopefully i will not kill us all. wdyt?

CavalrySavagery

Your point of view is autistic but the kind of autism that doesn’t let you see anything else other than what you think, without proper explanation. When you build something you are going to spend A LOT of money initially and then, ONLY THEN, you will start getting profit and that initial INSANE AMOUNT OF MONEY will turn into: regular maintenance and swap/material renewal. Am by no means smart or a business man but you are clearly even worse

Sufficient_Habit5091

Really thoughtful post thank you. Unfortunately A LOT of astroturfing by ANT pumpers here.

0xd3ad54311

The dotcom bubble was based on the internet. You may be familiar with it. People use it A LOT. It was still a bubble where a lot of companies with idiotic business plans and no path to profitability were basically shoveling money into a furnace. 26 years later, we're still using the internet and some of those defunct companies exist in other forms (Chewy seems like [Pets.com](http://Pets.com), [Kozmo.com](http://Kozmo.com) was essentially DoorDash) but it was still a bubble.

Dihedralman

He says on an online forum traded publicly. People actually use the internet. A LOT.  To the point where many retail models collapsed entirely.  The AI bubble won't be as big of a fall because many underlying players had excess capital going in. 

United_Branch_5736

Your subagent example actually supports the substitution case, not the frontier moat case. If Opus and Haiku subagents cuts cost by 50%, the savings come from moving most tokens off the frontier model. That’s the definition of substitution pressure if I ever saw one. And 50% is A LOT in corporate terms.

cal8282

Dotcom bubble was a based on overhyped hopes and dreams. People actually use AI. A LOT. What will eventually happen is it becomes a cheap commodity. Not sure how pure AI providers (Anthropic and OpenAI) will handle that.

PassableForAWombat

Your average oil trader. House wins a LOT there

antwanlb

Yep, the more i use claude, the more anthropic loses money. Thst's because i dont have a subscription. And if they make claude subscription only? Ill be forced to get an open source model. Km not the majority, but its crazy to assume there arent a LOT of people who do the same thing. The more useless ai i see on my tl, the more money i assume those companies are losing

WkndWarrior12345054

that is A LOT OF employees

ReturnOfBigChungus

The AI race from a technology standpoint is different than the market dynamics of current AI financing. The whole circular financing story is very real, and the risk that all this CapEx do not produce the projected financial productivity is very real. The issue is they're all locked in at this point - you HAVE to keep dumping cash in to stay competitive (or competitive-ish in Meta's case) in terms of model capability, but a new frontier model only keeps you near the lead for a few months. Then in 6 months, the model that you spent billions training is competing with a model that's delivering the same capability for 1/10th the price you would need to charge to recoup your costs. The bet is that they eventually produce something so capable that you just run away with the race, but unless you believe ASI is right around the corner it's more rational to look at the last few years of the economics and see that most of these models don't actually recoup cost. There's also legitimate risk in the way that AI companies are currently depreciating their hardware. They're using (mostly) ~6 year depreciation schedules, but the hardware is only economically productive for about 3 years, so there is a LOT of risk of future impairment charges which directly hits profit. The basis of the story is that frontier models are more expensive to build than the profit they generate. Add to that the fact that there's a huge amount of circular financing going on, and you have the potential for a vicious cycle on the way down if things stall out. These financing arrangement are essentially NVIDIA giving AI companies money to then buy their products. That works when everything is going well, but if things go a bit sideways it creates massive contagion. There's a very close parallel to the late 90s telco bubble which used nearly identical financing structures. It's not a guarantee that it's a bubble that's going to pop but it's a very precarious situation that is pricing in perfection against what are very likely optimistic projections on the economics.

Stonk_Trader69420

here it comes... :clifford: :clifford: :clifford: a LOT of sale action happening

User-NetOfInter

Lol “operating costs” ignore A LOT of

AnyStatistician2535

That's why gold is still worth a LOT more than Bitcoin - its market cap is like 20x that of BTC. But I think it's probable that Bitcoin will catch up in usage as a store of value because of its many superior properties to gold: _more_ portable, _more_ easily verifiable, _more_ scarce, _more_ divisible, etc... If this plays out, the gap between the two would close significantly. Note that multiple governments have already started holding Bitcoin in various forms such as central bank assets or sovereign fund investments... In 10-20 years we may see it eclipsing gold as a reserve asset.

Syllabub_Visual

So tell me how the ai bubble pops WITHOUT anthropic or openai execs going to prison … this scale makes Sam bankman fried and do Kwon look tiny and they’re the ones who brought down their entire industries … you simply wouldn’t be throwing all this money at complete money pits at valuations that make zero sense if there wasn’t some kind of massive fraud here propping this all up … I might be right on this and make A LOT of money…

Syllabub_Visual

I built a consumer ai startup that reached a valuation of $130m and led it to exit. Was it easy in terms of the execution and actually trying to convince people of our product? Absolutely not, got A LOT of no’s. On the other hand did it also happen much faster than I expected and did we start getting money thrown at us once we slapped ai onto everything? Also yes. Then again I see seed rounds more than our entire valuation all the time now given ai. And anthropic and openai reaching trillion dollar scale on smoke and mirrors is true moral corruption. Because of my Silicon Valley mindset, I’ll just say that anything below $10b feels tiny and even though I objectively made a lot of money (and had a very rigorous technical background and at one point did very very difficult math research), I’m undoubtedly insecure when I see English majors who joined these places as sales reps two years ago from state schools getting MUCH MUCH richer than I am because their equity happened to explode, and some English majors have even reached the very very top of this industry. Look if my next startup can reach even 0.1% of Anthropic’s valuation I think I’d call that a win, but my perspective these days has just been so distorted and I still remain a gambling addict.

MerryRunaround

A smart risk manager with a lot of capital can sell options indefinitely. It's just a matter of using a sensible, consistent strategy while holding enough uncommitted capital to absorb all drawdowns. People who trade too big and stress their margins get burned. Fake gurus like tastytrade tell you how to sell options but what they don't tell you is you need a LOT of capital to make it all worthwhile. Nobody with $10k is ever going to sell enough options to justify the time they must spend.

Legitimate_Cut_6254

My wife and I own small businesses and I'm an AI Engineer for a corporate position. I automated A LOT of our bookkeeping work, my wife has a personal email assistant that automatically drafts scheduling emails, I use it to manage her website. I run a large ecommerce platform and manage products, shipments, price tracking for my website. On and On. At my corpo position, I'm essentially an internal FDE and Solutions Lead, I'll get pulled into large corporate initiatives to look for opportunities to apply AI. Every time I claim something people will literally, pull me into a meeting and say "I don't believe you, show me". These aren't rocket science initiatives. Its like, creating web apps for workflow management or conversion efforts from legacy products. A manager from a different team, pulled me into a meeting friday afternoon because he didn't believe my claim we could move them entirely off a legacy platform in a few months. I live refactored 40 workflows and called out countless defects in 30 minutes over video. He was like... oh... how do i get that tech? \- My question is the growth, not the utility. How many people are jumping on the bandwagon after missing it for 2 years? I know a lot of business's are cost cutting and controlling efficient use of the tools. Is the growth going to come from latecomers? Or people creating re-occuring processes that need token spend?

MikeCheck_CE

October 15, 2026, Elon Musk posted on X that "China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028," (Then follow up later with: Micron has been “reasonable regarding future memory prices, while others have been extortionate") - in other words he got what he needed from Micron now.

Novel-Green-2368

Indeed. Few think it’ll just “go-away”. But since this is a “stocks” thread - I guarantee there will be a LOT of bankrupt AI companies and data center builders that will just “go-away” as they incinerate money chasing “closed-models” while companies wake-up and learn to utilize “open-models” that are free or cost fractions then use their own hardware to run their data and answer their questions.

Syllabub_Visual

1 in 3 boomers have a net worth above $1m, nearly 10% have a net worth above $5m, and over 1% are worth over $20m (and even at the lower end over 75% are worth over $250k). That’s A LOT of people, yet Reddit LOVES to pretend everyone is poor and I’m assuming their parents are probably boomers, so “ask your parents” isn’t the bad advice they love to pretend it is. That’s a huge amount of money that will be inherited by these people who love to complain how bad everything is, but will still get yolo’d back into the markets. 

Flat_corp

I’m an estimator for large commercial construction projects, so a LOT of excel and a LOT of PDF’s. It has significantly improved my productivity and frankly my sanity. Not having to dig through 30 page spec books is fuckin huge. That said I still fail to see how its meaningfully produced a quantifiable value for most sectors. In my case I can bid faster, make less errors, and while I don’t trust it for pricing it has definitely allowed me to catch things that increased our net profit on certain projects.

LeCollectif

Actually I want to clarify my point here a bit more. You are not wrong that it is possible that many costs surrounding AI may drop. That, however is of no benefit to you as a consumer. The frontier model companies are carrying a profound amount of debt. And they are subsidizing their product by 8x to 200x with the hope of so deeply integrating the product into everything we do that we HAVE to pay the bill when it comes due. But that is a LOT of money. So when the real costs come online, customers will choose not to buy it. It will be too expensive. So even as the costs of AI drop on the model front, they need to do so at a pace that makes it viable to pay back that debt and eventually become profitable. And as of right now, it’s not looking like it’s going to happen.

TrashBandicook

We're in midterms season, expect the disinformation campaigns to heat up. Even leading up to 2024, there was a LOT of astroturfing. Half this subreddit was firmly in the mango camp and did a 180 not even 1 month into his presidency.

McOmghall

Not the majority, but relative to previous months there's a LOT of short interest

LtUnsolicitedAdvice

I think your point makes sense. But the huge caveat is, you have to do a LOT more work to make sure you don't get wiped out. There is also the aspect of selecting the right trades (eg. dont sell puts on a stock which has risen 20% in the last month). I found my sweet spot somewhere in the middle - 14-21 DTE. Gives enough time to adjust for overnight movements that go against you, which has come in handy during the last 2 weeks.

TimeTravelingChris

Well here is the thing, he called this weeks / months ago and BI reporting on Amazon just confirmed it. So you can say it's incomplete but his method is pretty common sense. Nvidia discloses sales and deals, and the companies building the DCs announce capacity and completion. It's no secret that A LOT of the DC construction has been delayed or cancelled for a number of reasons. He's just one of the few pointing this out. Personally, I think warehousing of excess chips is one of the least compelling arguments for a bubble. Open weight models and lower cost competition is the real long term risk to the current structure.

ykoreaa

That's A LOT just to open/close your contract!

jrex035

Thanks, I've spent a LOT of time learning about energy markets and tankers these past few months haha >This has gone on for much longer than the market expected I come from an international relations/conflict resolution background so I knew this crisis would not be shortlived or easy to resolve. The market has been insanely complacent and naive this entire crisis, but hey it's helped me make lots of money so I'm not too mad about it. Imo the market is still overly optimistic about both the chances for an end to the crisis and is failing to appreciate the importance of *how* the crisis ends. We're never returning to a pre-war status quo again, but the market still seems to think oil will be back at $60 a barrel within a few weeks of the war ending. It's not gonna happen.

AllCapNoBrake

A LOT of triggered blue hairs in here today.... https://preview.redd.it/1ubzcotd39xh1.png?width=398&format=png&auto=webp&s=df2a67d87d4f4d809e8cc7348de0bbe7befbfabb

kairepaire

17-years long bull market (COVID was a short dip). That spawned a LOT of bulls over time.

BraPaj2121

I made 20-30% on Meta, Microsoft in like a month when they dipped recently. I would have held them but had to sell bc was moving funds to different account. Just dumped money in Google, Amazon and UAL.. they look like great buys right now. Buy dips on successful companies with a good performance history. Pretty simple. A LOT of panic selling last few years. Everyone try to time the market.

Valkyrie_Skuld

yeah she's like A LOT more normal and honestly the best person to be in the ER with and I need to call her back tomorrow, I suck

putmeinthetrash420

I’m looking at this from an ‘evil investor’ perspective, not a ‘make the world a better place’ perspective. This is the WSB sub..a lot of you guys are…idw say evil, but that’s what I mean. I think times have changed A LOT btwn the measles vaccine and now. I think that, unfortunately, we are living thru a period where everything is driven by corporate profit, even when it’s explicitly not benefitting the masses. Almost especially when it’s not benefitting them. Idk where the anti vaxxer or ‘pseudo intellectualism’ sentiment came from, bc that has *nothing* to do with me or my opinions. Isn’t research the more expensive part of getting a drug onto the market anyway? Also public investment isn’t the only source of income these companies have access to. I’m not an investor or familiar with drug trials in any way.

Iwantobegoodatrade

I have A LOT of Most shorted stocks small caps!

krakoi90

This is so ridiculous. Humanoids can only last for a few hours without charging. Even if technology improves A LOT and they last close to a day, it is still impossible to achieve anything with them in a war. And they will always be more expensive and slower to make than less complex robots. Why spend tens of thousands of dollars on a humanoid robot that can be blown up using a cheap-ass drone costing a few hundred bucks? You guys watch too much dumb sci-fi. There will be robots on the battlefield, such as the cheap drones used in Ukraine, small dog-like or rolling ground robots, and self-driving armored carriers for them. Quantity over quality.

Pale_Guest_5136

Moderna still has a LOT to lose.

bearhunter429

#I totally predicted this market crash and it will get A LOT worse. This is just the beginning. LMAO🤌🍁

Wonderful-Kangaroo52

https://www.reddit.com/r/WorkReform/comments/vh1lvn/i_compiled_a_list_of_average_incomes_and_rents_by/ I'm guessing he is exaggerating a bit, but there are a LOT of countries near or under 20 percent. USA is absolutely fucked in that regard.

Professional-One972

Umm nah dude. 26B is a LOT. Even by Meta standards.

Amdvoiceofreason

If you sell a covered call and a put at 180 while NVDA is at 220 the premium for the call is gonna be a LOT higher like $4,000 higher than the put

Skyrage01

Tesla is component capped at the moment and will be so for a few more years until Terafab comes online and runs efficiently and they are able to source enough Lithium. They have their own refinery now but I dunno whether it runs optimally given it has only been online for a few months let alone if it produces enough by itself. Given the ravenous hunger for semiconductors right now the component cap will probably last for quite a while still. Probably even if China were to start adding their batch to the world market - assuming they will at all. Frankly I hope that Tesla will at the very least start looking into sodium batteries for their megapacks in order to alleviate lithium consumption. Storage business is massively growing and is still at it's very infancy globally and there is a LOT of profit to be made there still.

Piss_baby29

Well to answer that, let's take a look at your example: gold. You said if you control a large share of peoples needs for food, energy, etc. But what needs does gold actually fill? Wheat feeds you, oil runs our cars. But gold? You can't eat it or use it to grow food, it doesn't offer any practical use in terms of every day life. Sure it looks cool, and it's used in jewelry and some electronics, but compared to huge commodities like oil and food, it doesn't really match up. So if theres little practical use for it, how does it give you power, a share of peoples needs as you put it. Well it's simple: because we BELIEVE it's valuable. It's scarce, so people are willing to spend lots of money to get it off you. And the only reason they're willing to do so is because they know that in the future, other people will be willing to buy it off them just as they did. So despite it's lack of practical use, gold has historically meant economic power mostly just due to it's scarcity. (and the fact it's pretty doesn't hurt either) So now ask yourself, is there really a difference between gold and crypto? Crypto is something that offers no practical use, you can't use it to feed yourself, or run your car, or build houses. It doesn't really DO anything. But it's scarce, it's popular, and people are willing to pay a LOT of money for it. And for that reason, it has power. Sure you can touch and see gold, it's a physical object. But you can also touch and see a normal rock, and those don't have much less practical use than gold does. Yet gold is valuable, rock isn't. So whether it's a physical object or just a number kept digitally on a computer doesn't really matter. It's scarce and people want it. So yes, you can argue that crypto is kinda dumb. But then you would have to admit that gold is also dumb. Frankly, our entire modern economy is built on this idea that anything can hold value as long as everybody believes it does. And I didn't even use this example, but you know what ELSE has no practical use and yet has economic power? Money. Seriously. It's just a piece of paper, it literally has zero use besides acting as fire fuel for like 3 seconds. And yet, our entire economy is built upon it simply because we believe it. So sure, I can get behind crypto being dumb. Because it's all dumb. It seems crazy that our world economy can be based around useless slips of paper. And yet, it works.

Syllabub_Visual

Feel like Reddit is representative of the bottom 10-20% of the us which is not exactly a good place to be and the hard truth is that A LOT of people are there because they have issues. It’s a total tragedy when you let people fall into addiction or mental health spirals and don’t do anything about it and unfortunately lots of politicians refuse to talk about it because it’s unpopular, but acknowledging this is really the only way you’re gonna fix it. Look many of us have issues and I’ll admit I have them too but therapy has really been the game changer and it’s an uncomfortable conversation people need to have. I mean with homeless people simply giving them housing isn’t exactly gonna fix things and that’s why you need treatment to actually give them a chance at a better life. Reddit is PROBABLY mostly Russian and Chinese bots but for those that are real I do wonder who influenced them because this is the complete opposite of what our parents and grandparents told us.  For some of us our great grandparents came from complete poverty (and I’m not talking about the us definition of poverty but EXTREME third world poverty, think famine and conflict zones) and still managed to build a life and build wealth and raise very successful generations, so I do feel like some of the economic concerns are exaggerated (I mean the economy is doing better than ever based on the macro stats), especially when people coming from MUCH WORSE situations manage to do very well.

BearishBabe42

Eli Lilly is 5x the size, ofcourse they have more products. But they don't have 5x the earnings, and novo has a higher relative fcf. They both spend a LOT on r&d, but novo has more coops with government backed institutions. In the end I believe eli Lilly will outpace novo for a while longer, but in a ten year + perspective, I think novo is going to gain a lot more than lly.

PassableForAWombat

If it wasn't for the fact that the finance sector as a whole is definitely secondary-order affected by the AI issues I'd have a LOT more conviction in SCHD. As it is right now I'm not sure who will be the ultimate debt-owner of the buildout, because JPM/BOA are both very heavily wrapped up in it and will likely be the next to be merged into another

Rez-the-man-123

That explains A LOT

Bulky-Internal8579

Elon Musk is a criminal, a fascist, a pedophile and a liar. He was born rich and won the lottery on investments with a LOT of help from government subsidies. He never invented anything. If we get a halfway decent AG in January of 2029 he'll be headed to prison - all those investigations he was able to pay off Trump to quash aren't going anywhere. You might want to find someone else to boot lick.

Sawyerthesadist

Stock market making me want to drink… **A LOT**

AndItsThetaAgain

Idk… you guys bitch out a LOT

bostrovsky

it's doable, just complicated. the parts that tripped me up were assignments showing up as separate stock entries and rolls, order leg descriptions don't match transaction descriptions, Signs are always positive whether you are buying or selling. corporate actions don't matchup by description. split fills are different orders. generally the data is messy because it comes from so many sources (brokerage, exchange, clearing house, etc.). it's possible but it ins't a single prompt and there is a LOT of deterministic code to pull it all together.

JeanSneaux

The free or low-cost versions they're all using aren't making nearly enough money to justify the debt and capex. Companies will have to jack up subscription prices and/or charge companies a LOT more for the data they harvest. This isn't like rideshare apps where they get everyone hooked then raise prices, because rideshare apps don't have to pay for monumental amounts of compute to make the business profitable. People adopting it widely does not necessarily mean the business model works.

BarbellPadawan

Don’t take steroids. So many people do. It’s generally really dumb—an argument might be if you’re genetically gifted and trying to become a pro body builder (I’m guessing this isn’t the case). TRT is only if you have low T *and* symptoms of low T (like really low libido, or ED). If you go on the internet and read about TRT it will sound like a godsend panacea, everyone writing about how they feel 18 again. They are full of shit. The actual research proves that the “improvements” that might exist are SUPER subtle, almost imperceptible. About 40% of people who start TRT are continuing it at 2 years because it’s such a minimal—if any—improvement, and administration is annoying, etc. Taking supraphysiologic doses has high side effect risks (almost certainly you’ll get shitty skin, and slightly less likely but still commonly other SEs like testicular shrinkage, prostate issues, heart issues, polycythemia, etc). Most people who use exogenous steroids look like shit anyway. You can do A LOT natty with just lifestyle modification (good diet, sleep, and training). Even using exogenous steroids, you won’t make much progress without lifestyle being **absolutely** dialed anyway. So if you do decide to do it, I’d encourage you to dial in lifestyle consistently for at least 3 months (no booze, lifting 3-4x per week, really healthy diet, 7-8 hrs of sleep every night) before making that commitment.