LOT

Immediate_Fun_5320

Amazon Leo actuallt probobly won’t be a real competitor for a while, the issue with starlink is that their projected market doesn’t really exist- they have already captured the lions share of everyone willing to buy somthing like starlink, and cellular through starlink won’t be in very high demand unless they launch a LOT of starlink v3, plus they probobly won’t even have edge cases to go after as ASTspacemobile is already going after those right now. I’m just not even really sure where the market is for 5, 10x more revenue from starlink tbh. Not even anything with competitors. Also, starship development is getting EXPENSIVE. Starship MUST get within the launch costs they need or none of these plans work and they have spent 15-40B+ on nothing, and there are serious reasons to think it might not.

VariationAgreeable29

Lolol there are gonna be a LOT of bag holders talking about this stock nonstop in here (yes, even more than now). Elon fanboys are the worst kind

Spy300

Price it >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >TRUMP: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! >BESSENT: RATES PEAKED THE DAY BEFORE WARSH WAS SWORN IN >BESSENT: 100% APPROVE OF THE FED GETTING RID OF FORWARD GUIDANCE >DALY SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE NOT GOOD AT THIS JUNCTURE >WARSH: I DONT BELIEVE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >TRUMP: “I LOVE THE INFLATION” ✅️

M00NFAC3_69

brother, thats just tuition, you will likely lose A LOT more before you learn how to do this right, if ever.

mapoftasmania

We are in a cyclical shift to AI and other speculative stocks. When the cycle ends we will see the usual “flight to quality”.  Netflix is underestimated - its ad-supported business still has a LOT of runway. It’s a moderate growth stock with a blue chip balance sheet. 

PriceAlert354

Of course. That truly happened to me. The fact I even openly say it to people is crazy bc I was SO ashamed I did that. I literally could’ve just put that in SPY or shit even bonds, and probably have my retirement set. But instead I got greedy and March 25 with trumps tarriff tantrum, I panicked and broke every single rule I had for myself and had learned. I was devastated and depressed. Eventually I had to just accept what’s done is done. People have lost much more than that and recovered. Life is long. I’m grateful for the lesson. Now I know I need to protect my capital. Especially when another 0 comes along. All I had to do was take 100k and throw it in SPY and I would’ve been set. Next time, maybe just buy shares and hold. That’s all I do now and while I have A LOT of ground to make up, I know eventually I will make it all back and more.

G0RD0N_CLARK

It's going to be a LOT weird.

AllCapNoBrake

Has always been the case...just need a LOT more retail to finally wake up to that.

Hot_Philosopher_6558

Ppl not realizing how INSANE spcx is right now, usually when market goes down algo mass selling results in most going red or low percentage but spcx holds, meaning investors are buying A LOT

Goonslopenjoyer321

People be shitting on msft because of the stock performance. Very true but the company is great and makes A LOT of money. The market will give the stock attention again, its just not the right time right now.

obvnotlupus

He is saying that options will be released tomorrow, and a lot of people are going to buy calls. Market makers who sell those calls will need buy more stock to have a neutral position on the stock. Normally this does not happen in enough volume to have a big effect on the stock, but the theory is: 1. This is an insanely betted-on stock which at the moment has no options, so the moment options are available a LOT of people are going to buy them; 2. The volume of available shares is laughably small (like 5% of total shares) so the stock is extremely volatile and will respond more to large volumes changing hands

PsychoMantittyLits

I want to lose a LOT of money!

Beagle001

To be fair, I goto Autozone A LOT

Noderly

It's overvalued by A LOT by financial metrics. History shows us that, when the tides change, companies with outrageously high valuations drop outrageously far down. We've been in a long bull run. If the bull run changes to a prolonged bear market, good luck with this stock.

Noderly

Lol the moment the economic markets shift, this thing is dropping faster and harder than a strippers' clothes. There's going to be a LOT of hurt people from this one.

Imaginary-Writer-125

Tbh SPCX still has a LOT more to run Low float but remember that 🌽 is still above 66k, plenty of money in the market

P1um

>All of these companies have accomplished a LOT more than RKLB ever has financially. That's true but the market only cares about what could be in the future. Ford, Ebay, etc. these businesses can be easily replicated nowdays.

greenpride32

RKLB is currently worth $68b and has never made a cent of profit. For reference, it is worth more than TGT (Target), AFL (Aflac), F (Ford), O (Realty Income), VST (Vistra), EBAY (eBay); and many many more. I tried to list more commonly known names. All of these companies have accomplished a LOT more than RKLB ever has financially. RKLB certainly has potential to generate more profits than those companies in the future. But "space economy" isn't exactly a concrete industry, and there are many unknowns and uncertainties. So you're dealing with a fairly high risk/reward ratio there. These types of stocks can have very wild swings because nobody is buying the stock at elevated share prices because they believe they are buying at fair value, it's purely momentum and greater fool theory.

jrex035

Yep. My problem was that I thought the fundamentals of a key global commodity would snap markets out of this mania we're seeing around chips and AI, not least of which because both are deeply negatively impacted by the Strait closure. Instead, once again, nothing matters and nothing ever happens. There's still a long way to go before we get back to anything approaching a full normalization of the Strait, with a LOT of potential for things to go wrong, but apparently none of that matters either. It really is incredible.

Important_Ad_7764

hvor mange shares har du? jeg har kun 50.000 og overvejer købe flere, men har ikke så mange penge, så er lidt bange da den er lidt volatil. What do u think will happen to the stock? i want to buy more but im afraid it will go down A LOT after the WC and my average cost right now is 0,2 svenske kroner.

throw_keeb

there's only so much money in the prediction market for ceasefire nonsense - looks like on the order of millions from a quick search? apparently the mou is going to give them, among other things, a LOT of money - allegedly on the order of hundreds of billions

moriya

Yeah, 20 year vet here - you’re 100% right, janitors aren’t getting any equity. Even among the rank and file it varies a LOT by role. Some very senior engineers are getting loaded up with stock, some roles (sales) are cash heavy, but for most general roles you’re getting equity as a nice bonus, not a substantial part of your package. About the lowest rung on the totem pole that would get any equity exposure is office ops (front desk, etc). Cleaning, catering, etc is all outsourced out to third parties - they aren’t getting anything.

_Meow_o_Meow_

A lot of people? My sister makes like 90k and she bought a house.... depends a LOT on the where.

Abe2025

A LOT of people are making enormous anount of money through schemes, money laundering, beating systems. Example, there is a sheriff in a small town jn Arkansas who had many expensive vehicles and owned property just as big as the politician jn the picture of this post. Meanwhile people who went through college and make a difference in life make pennies and can hardly afford living. Its REALLY messed up

dproton

Ironically though, i do know A LOT of gamblers (sportsbooks and casinos).

Vivid-Snow-2089

we need a nuclear reactor, or a massive source of energy in space first for those big ass ions, and if you do the reactor, that's a LOT of mass... and cooling... yeah it's complicated it basically needs to be a government program for a long time, akin to the space race budget, with a massive political will behind it and we are fragmented and divided nowadays with no one agreeing on anything

TendstobeRight85

One has had a LOT more success, to the point its the industry flag-bearer. To be clear, getting the tech to make rockets land and be reusable is NOT something that can just be replicated. It takes both time and money. Space X had a LOT of government backing early on that gave it a massive head start, while a lot of its competitors either didnt focus on re-usability, or didnt have the live experience to build on. And as crappy as Elon is as a human being, he is very good at selling an idea, and soliciting investment from both private and public donors.

thebiglebowskiisfine

I bought SpaceX in a private placement at $9 per share and a lot of TSLA in 2013. I'm waiting for FSD to launch and might wait for the eventual merger. I have ridden TSLA to 480 and down to 130 and back up. My ASP is $12. My SpaceX shares are now locked for 180 days. It doesn't really bother me because I have no debt and other investments. I can stomach the extreme volatility, and there has been a LOT over the years.

onerandomcomputerguy

It happened A LOT during COVID times (even still these days just less so). I wasn't anywhere near that but I messed up a lot of plays that would have been millions

hobopwnzor

I think it's that and there were a LOT of naked shorts that were about to not make delivery.  There were also people selling shares they didn't have on an institutional level which is criminally illegal. Rather than having to arrest multiple fund managers and investigate a bunch of big names they decide to just shut it down.

Visual_Collar_8893

You have to factor in how much you also risked to make that 7k. The Risk Reward ratio is the key. Many ways to use the same capital for proportionally bigger gains. Also, after taxes, that 7k is a LOT less than 7k.

smoothie4564

Merging a company losing a small amount of money with a company losing A LOT of money is a smart move? Yes, that was a gamble that paid off but most of the time that would be a catastrophic move. That is equivalent to going to a casino, putting all of one's money on 36 red, the ball lands on 36 red, and claiming to be a genius. Musk may have played his cult members into giving him 75 billion dollars for a mere 4% of a company burning through cash, but I will not be one of those people.

pseudonominom

Data centers generate A LOT of heat, though. Radiators only do so much. They’re not nearly as effective as using ground-based heat sinks and water. There’s a reason they use so much water

Etherius

So… it’s pretty inarguable that there’s a LOT of potential in space. Orbital data centers, orbital solar collectors, and more. The problem is that’s all speculative right now. SpaceX remains the most cost effective way to get payloads into space and whatever you think of Musk, they do it well. But… they were already doing that without the IPO. IPO wasn’t to raise cash for operations, it was an exit strategy for insiders This company is losing money on a LOT of capex. I get that. But just how big is the market for “getting shit into space”?

KMPItXHnKKItZ

Shares are a long game and to build wealth over an average working lifetime, unless you trade with A LOT of money and/or get lucky/get in when a stock really pops. Options are for losing money right after you open the position and before you can even click to sell it.

siazdghw

You say that but look at the employees of Nvidia, Valve, etc. literally millionaires still doing their 9-5. People like money. A LOT. Also if you're a space enthusiast, which most employees are, there is no better company to be involved with. The only other option is taking significant pay cuts and being years behind to work at a smaller rocket company to have more input.

DrElkSnout

My biggest failure as an investor has always been letting go of positions that I originally thought were worth holding long term. Do with that information what you will, but I'd have a LOT more money if I just let some shit ride for 20 years.

DrElkSnout

My biggest failure as an investor has always been letting go of positions that I originally thought were worth holding long term. Do with that information what you will, but I'd have a LOT more money if I just let some shit ride for 20 years.

StrebLab

You are handwaving the cooling problem away A LOT. Look how large the cooling arrays on the international space station are. A typical data center would have easily 1000-2000x the heat output of the ISD when considering only the waste from the computation, not even the heat it would absorb from the sun. The arrays would need to be literally multiple square kilometers in size. And that is for ONE data center I'm not saying it is impossible, I am saying it is an extremely, irredeemably stupid idea that adds way more cost and complexity to a system that can already be done cheaper and easier on earth. The idea is peak stupidity. It would take years to make a single data center and will require continuous maintenance and switching out of parts. The cheapest rockets are never going to be as easy and cheap as just driving to a location on land. Maintenance is nightmare. Every step of the entire process is technically possible but way more work and way more expensive than what we can currently do on land. The idea is just dumb and once again is more Elon Musk magic over promising and under delivering. Still waiting on the Tesla Roadster that was supposed to come out in 2020.

Sir-Hamp

I’ve been out of work for months due to an off-site injury. I’m not broke but have time to learn something new. Would you say it is a difficult thing to pick up on? I thought about taking classes to learn the basics and going elsewhere for deeper knowledge of the market. I don’t mind starting small, shit I have a LOT of time on my hands right now lol.

Syllabub_Visual

Retail investors wanted to put $75 billion into spacex, the entire amount they planned to raise. A LOT of regards out there, but you know what, just trust Elon…

livingunique

Yeah this is a LOT of capital for the market to absorb within a short timeframe Plus the SpaceX IPO will likely do okay in the short term, and tons of other AI companies will all try to go public as well to ride on the coattails

BankofBroke

The Friday / Monday dip was to free up capital for IPO. spy ATH tomorrow was always the play. I am wrong a LOT though lol

CC98989898

OTM leaps are not “cheap” like most retail traders think. You are paying A LOT more for theta than you probably realize.

Its_CharacterForming

Also making a LOT of his employees millionaires.  Dude is the GOAT.  I’ll be buying some shares tomorrow too (and holding for a long time)

Ok_Government1644

So I have a 127$ average lol but have a LOT in their stocks. Younger folk will realize the market is where the money is and they’ll use RH, trump accounts are launching in RH, their credit card is awesome, and I trust Vlad to always get rich and be at the table. Boomers use fidelity and vanguard (sure I do too for retirement), everyone else uses RH. So I like the stock! I liked it at 127 and love it at 80s something and I remember when it was in the 30s…

betarhoalphadelta

I posted this in the other investing sub I saw you x-post. So might as well reproduce it here too... \------------ I took a small position as well--of course I bought in near peak (1K shares at $10.05 USD). Should have purchased a month earlier when I was first looking, but hadn't done DD yet. I've spent 2+ decades in tech, and a bit of that was in embedded computing and then a related business, dealing in the exact sort of industries and customers QNX targets. I even had a bootable QNX system at one point \[decade+ ago\] to do basic hardware testing, because a customer was using QNX. So I get the "stickiness" of getting designed in and being in effectively forever. The bit that worries me is that this ends up being what a former colleague called a "lifestyle business". They get into the companies that aren't big enough, and with difficult enough requirements, that nobody larger than BB really cares enough to chase it. They can get into those sticky businesses and sustain them. It takes a lot of work up front, but it has a payoff: they have stable, predictable, recurring revenue--and now profitability. But it makes it a LOT harder to have the explosive growth story. The first reason I invested was the idea that they can move upstack with Alloy Kore and SDP8, potentially expanding their SAM within existing customer base of automotive. If they can expand beyond just mission-critical further into the vehicle platform, per-vehicle royalties could increase by multiples while the volume play is still slow/steady growth. The second, of course, is physical AI. A large mechanical robotic device that has the weight and power to potentially kill someone is a place where an RTOS is critical. This is the one that could be a better volume play in the next 3-5 years, causing a revenue increase by multiples. Either (or both) of those paying off could cause a re-rate. I don't expect to make a meaningful return on this stock for several years, so I'm thinking long term. But OTOH unlike many speculative plays, the stability / lifestyle business aspect is what I expect will, at the very least, cause my investment not to crash.

dgarner58

i am also long...but not a huge position. 400 shares. i just kept buying as it dropped. deep red for like 5-6 yrs. now up like 50%. i am still long though just because the QNX stuff is in a LOT of cars. i prob should sell but meh...it's not that much money. i'll sit and watch.

betarhoalphadelta

I took a small position as well--of course I bought in near peak (1K shares at $10.05 USD). Should have purchased a month earlier when I was first looking, but hadn't done DD yet. I've spent 2+ decades in tech, and a bit of that was in embedded computing and then a related business, dealing in the exact sort of industries and customers QNX targets. I even had a bootable QNX system at one point \[decade+ ago\] to do basic hardware testing, because a customer was using QNX. So I get the "stickiness" of getting designed in and being in effectively forever. The bit that worries me is that this ends up being what a former colleague called a "lifestyle business". They get into the companies that aren't big enough, and with difficult enough requirements, that nobody larger than BB really cares enough to chase it. They can get into those sticky businesses and sustain them. It takes a lot of work up front, but it has a payoff: they have stable, predictable, recurring revenue--and now profitability. But it makes it a LOT harder to have the explosive growth story. The first reason I invested was the idea that they can move upstack with Alloy Kore and SDP8, potentially expanding their SAM within existing customer base of automotive. If they can expand beyond just mission-critical further into the vehicle platform, per-vehicle royalties could increase by multiples while the volume play is still slow/steady growth. The second, of course, is physical AI. A large mechanical robotic device that has the weight and power to potentially kill someone is a place where an RTOS is critical. This is the one that could be a better volume play in the next 3-5 years, causing a revenue increase by multiples. Either (or both) of those paying off could cause a re-rate. I don't expect to make a meaningful return on this stock for several years, so I'm thinking long term. But OTOH unlike many speculative plays, the stability / lifestyle business aspect is what I expect will, at the very least, cause my investment not to crash.

rufuckingkidding

There is going to be A LOT of FOMO investing going on!

Antifragile_Glass

It’s worse than that I think. I think they know the risk of not spending on AI is higher. Unfortunately that means A LOT of capital will be eviscerated with little ROI for investors. A small group invested in the companies who are successful will benefit but most of the capital will be wasted.

Fancy_Rice_2799

Oracle isn't even up YTD. This bubble has a LOT more to give this year.

Abe2025

Actually, that sounds A LOT better!

Next_Stretch_6983

there is no efficiency gain this is a lie. Ai is garbage andnwhat it produces is garbage. if you think you are getting quality output that says A LOT about the quality of your own output. the only good ai is a deleted ai.

spilledonwhite

I am singlehandedly keeping NBIS above 200 with a buy order at 200. It will not fall and fill and I will not go a penny higher. Probably be 300 in a week. I know it is probably a 🌈 "resistance level" BUT I WANT THAT SWEET EVEN-NUMBERED LOT.

Syllabub_Visual

Remember spacex has over 400 employees now worth over $100m so this ipo has created A LOT of 22 year olds worth that much, a lot of 22-23 year olds are about to get VERY rich because of how many centimillionaire employees are being created, something else for you to feel salty about while you complete your shift at Wendy’s…

Spy300

Price it >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >TRUMP: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! >BESSENT: RATES PEAKED THE DAY BEFORE WARSH WAS SWORN IN >BESSENT: 100% APPROVE OF THE FED GETTING RID OF FORWARD GUIDANCE >DALY SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE NOT GOOD AT THIS JUNCTURE >WARSH: I DONT BELIEVE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >TRUMP: “I LOVE THE INFLATION” ✅️

Local-Bench1819

BATL burned a LOT of people. Can't blame anyone for downvoting it on sight, lol. Thanks for the update though.

Spy300

Price it >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >TRUMP: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! >BESSENT: RATES PEAKED THE DAY BEFORE WARSH WAS SWORN IN >BESSENT: 100% APPROVE OF THE FED GETTING RID OF FORWARD GUIDANCE >DALY SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE NOT GOOD AT THIS JUNCTURE >WARSH: I DONT BELIEVE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >TRUMP: “I LOVE THE INFLATION” ✅️

cinciNattyLight

They make A LOT of money. $100 a share would correlate to a PE ratio of at most 3.3.

abriefmomentofsanity

I think everyone with a brain understands we are currently playing musical chairs with the economy and sooner or later the music stops. There's no way this insane growth isn't propped up on falsehoods, fraud, and artificial political pressure. However nobody knows when the music is going to stop. You can try to time the market. Someone somewhere is going to make a LOT of money, largely by being lucky. Assuming this doesn't lead to civilization collapse of course.  You probably can't time the market. There are no safe havens. Not cash. Not gold. Not bonds. Not physical assets. That's another big sign that when this all comes down it's going to be bad. Really bad.  I dunno. I sold out. Paid my debts. Bought a bunch of nice dinners. It may be that I miss out on years of insane growth but the last time this happened it took BoA YEARS to bounce back to where they were pre-crash. I know I can't time the market. I know my dollars are probably going to devalue for the foreseeable future. I also know I really enjoyed treating my wife to lobster.  I have to side eye people who are saying the market is at all time highs and going even higher. That's technically true, but doesn't tell the whole story.  I can't speak to anyone else but besides a few automated etfs I'm out. I'm not trying to guess when the music stops, but I will probably try to guess when it's safe to get back in after the music stops. 

throwaway9gk0k4k569

This is still pretty bad. It's not worse than expected, but this is not good. I still don't know if the FOMC board members will "look through" and hold rates or raise them. The board members have made a LOT of comments lately that it would not be appropriate to "look through" because the recentness of inflation creates increased expectations, and the expectations of inflation causes inflation. I'm 50/50. I just don't know if they are going to raise this year. We know what Good and SMCI thinks. They think they need to grab cash now while the grabbing is good, stock price be damned.

gilligan1050

Dude, that’s A LOT of beef. Maybe just move to Kansas and start a cow farm? All the cattle farmers I have worked for are millionaires. Edit: I’m in Kansas, I’ll buy them for $100.

sad-Fan1010

I would’ve waited till the morning at least.. you can find out a LOT about how a market will play out in the first hour…. We will open red tomorrow and you could’ve gotten better value or cheaper premiums. The market will likely be red tomorrow from anywhere -1% to -2.5%. I hope I’m wrong though!

The_Keg

you are on r/investing The more I spend on reddit, the more I realize there are A LOT of pieces of shit who talk the talks but could never do the task. Just gather engineers and pay them sounds really simple huh?

ThePapaSauce

A little more than $2t, yeah. But two things — 1. That is the total possible estimated addressable market for that sector, and 2. that division had a net revenue of $4b for a $657m operating loss. They are shooting for a valuation of $1.75t, so if they are expecting their launch business to carry any real part of the business, it will have to grow… a LOT.

Panthera__Tigris

Here is why: \- There was an oversupply of oil before the war. \- Half of the Strait traffic is now being routed through pipelines by both the Saudis and UAE to bypass the Strait. UAE is also working on another pipeline which is [halfway done.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-uae-pipeline-bypassing-hormuz-now-50-complete-adnoc-ceo-says-2026-05-20/) Even Iraq is planning routing through Jordan and Syria. [Saudi jet fuel supply to Europe higher than before Hormuz closure, data shows](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-jet-fuel-supply-europe-higher-than-before-hormuz-closure-data-shows-2026-06-09/) \- There are still some tankers crossing the Strait. It's only 10% of before but it adds up to the rest. \- More Russian oil is flowing now than before. Thats a lot of barrels being added. The sanction waiver expired, but it doesn't look like US/ EU are enforcing it now. \- Venezuelan oil is also starting to trickle. Almost 1.25 million barrels now with most going to US and India. [India ramps up Venezuelan oil imports amid gulf crisis](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/india-ramps-up-venezuelan-oil-imports-amid-gulf-crisis/) \- China's economy has still not recovered so demand is low. Plus they are also doing quite well with EVs. [China Oil Imports Fall to Eight-Year Low](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/china-s-oil-imports-plunge-to-eight-year-low-on-war-disruptions). Even other countries are cutting back on oil usage by instituting work from home and stuff like that. \- Oil is already 50% higher than before the war. While the disruption is just around \~10% of global supply (would have been 20% without the pipelines). 50% is already a LOT. \- And lastly, everyone knows the situation will eventually ease for oil. This is why December futures are lower than spot (aka backwardation).

Icreatedthisforyou

A lot of this is recovery. But even ignoring the first several years as recovery you can ask this question more broadly, why do Democrats have the vast majority of jobs created since WWII and why has every conservative president except Reagan has presided over unemployment increases, while no Democrat has (the worst was Carter who saw it flatline). The answer to this is conservative policies are absolutely dog shit for the economy. Tax breaks to the wealthy has consistently demonstrate a lack of return in the economy. While programs like SNAP, housing assistance, and energy programs to assist the lower income individuals have consistently demonstrate substantial economic return. Slashing government funding and SERVICES means that you lose out on infrastructure improvements and jobs. You lose out on services small businesses rely on to start up and run, in particular in rural communities. You lose out on education programs that help people transition to new emerging field. You lose out on programs that support family farmers and feed poor people by buying food to support food banks. A lot of these services ARE NOT DIRECTLY PROFITABLE. Which means the private sector won't do them when they are gone. And that means every place that relies on these services is hit and doors start closing and consolidation to fewer larger companies occur. The end result is from a societal stand point these services pay for themselves but SOMEONE has to take the hit in the unprofitable part. We only have 14 presidencies worth of data to look at. There is a stark difference between the economic results of conservative presidents and Democrats. More than twice the job growth under Democrats, reduction in unemployment under Democrats, faster wage growth under Democrats, lower inflation under Democrats, higher stock market returns under Democrats, larger GDP growth under Democrats, slower national debt growth under Democrats. Most recessions start in conservative presidencies, and 3/4 of the quarters the US has been in recession since WWII we have been while conservatives have the presidency. It honestly isn't complex. Think about your local community. What could be done to improve it? And ask yourself if it isn't being done now by the private sector then who will do it? The answer is... GOVERNMENT. Local, state, federal doesn't matter that is where those projects funding and support comes from. Taxes fund those things and as a result stimulate the economy. Also blue states disproportionately fund the federal government and blue cities disproportionately fund state governments. Democrats are much more likely to support infrastructure and projects in rural areas that benefit rural areas than Republicans are. The alternative is you cut a wealthy person's taxes and their hoard grows a little larger. Maybe the buy another mansion, yacht, jet, or half a dozen politicians. So yeah turns out it isn't hard to create jobs when you look and go "this money could sit in a billionaires stock/yacht/mansion/supreme court justice vacation....or we could use the same money to literally create thousands of jobs" Like you take $1b from each of the 10 wealthiest people in the US, you have $10b and all of them have lost LESS than 1% of their wealth. A LOT less in many cases. Median individual income in the US is $45k you can literally directly pay 200,000 people a salary for a year off of that. And those 200k people will love all over the place, they spend money on housing, on food, mechanics, cars, health care. In the US we have about 200 auto mechanics per 100k people. So those 200k jobs also helped support and creat 400 mechanic jobs. 740 electricians. 300 plumbers. 500 doctors and 2500 nurses. 120 dentists. 2400 teachers, 500 police officers, etc...you get the point. I just listed a few jobs and we are already at what 7500 jobs and well paying jobs that are supporting those 200k jobs. Those are mostly the higher paid service jobs which there are far fewer of compared to the lower paid service jobs like restaurants and retail. That support not just those 200k jobs but those other jobs that were mentioned.

quantumlyregarded

Oh I have faith. That's plan Z and a LOT of things will have to fail before that plan executes. But I will say that with the pain my body is already in from breaking my back to make the rich richer I'm going to be pissed if I live to be 100. 

PossibleSecretary524

i believe the issue is there were A LOT of early buyers, because Figma is an amazing company, CEO is great etc etc, and there was a lot of to-the-moon sentiment. while the price naturally found its valuation plus the insider sales are unlocked now people who brought FIG 50+ hate the stock, while there is clearly nothing wrong with business and the moat, which is the design workflow. they own data on how everybody make their design and collaborate, replicate this...

JeanSneaux

When random people who don't typically follow stocks are interested in a stock because they've seen it hyped, that's usually a pretty good signal to stay away from it. Could be completely wrong, but there's a LOT about this IPO that seems very fishy (NASDAQ changing inclusion rules, Elon folding the dumpster fire that is X into the company, the shorter-than-usual exclusion period before investors can sell)

Scribble_Box

Hopefully they have Wendy's in SK. They're gonna need A LOT of them.

Emilio___Molestevez

$NBIS has A LOT of buyers at these prices short-term I feel sorry for them tbh imagine bidding a stock +10% two mornings in a row just to watch it get immediately eviscerated

No_Fig_7835

nice now I'm only down a LOT and not a TON

DeeDee_Z

> there will be plenty of people panic selling after a while Not just panic selling, either. There will be a **LOT** of people -- "insiders" -- just trying to UNLOAD shares they haven't been able to yet. LOTS of shares coming on the market from those wanting to cash out.

Subject-Chest-8343

Yes. That is more money than most people realize. It seems small relative to the 1.75T valuation, but this valuation exists because at the margin, there are enough suckers to pay 75B$ for 4% of the company. But that 75B$ is more than the entire profit of NVidia made in the past 3 months. And it could possibly get to 150B$ by the end of next week... That is a LOT of liquidity in a short time frame

Redcrux

I don't know of any podcasts that handle that in detail because it's a lot of numbers which are difficult to understand verbally. I just went through a lot of information myself about that topic and the conclusion I came to is that the majority of FIRE information online is geared towards the first part of starting saving and investing, but not so much on withdrawal strategies which are the most important to get right. The withdraw strategies depend on what type of accounts you contributed to in the "boring middle" part of FIRE which hardly anyone talks about. Your best bet is a mixture of googling to find forums that talk about it in detail and discussing it with an AI chat bot to answer your questions. The gist of it: There's a super important 5 year gap that must be covered between retirement age and year 5 of retirement when your Roth conversions become available for withdrawal. The best way to cover the 5 year gap is with the contributions you made while working and possibly supplementing with taxable accounts. You pay 0% LTCG tax if you keep your income within the limits. If you do it right you can withdraw a LOT of money tax free using those loopholes and the standard deduction. If your taxable account and roth contributions run out before the 5 years then you look into 72T withdrawals. The rule of 55 can also come into play if you retire at 55 or older. The next most important thing is making sure you continue or even increase Roth conversions past the gap, possibly filling up your 10% or 12% tax brackets. This will save you millions in the long run in taxes because if you get to age 75 with money left in your traditional IRA account you will have to take RMDs and get hit with a huge tax bill late in life. Once you roll it all into Roth you're set for life with minimal taxes. Hardly anyone in the FIRE community talks about these late stage tax strategies.

hikeonpast

Don’t underestimate the scope of the pro-Elon propaganda machine on social media. A LOT of money is spent on bots and trolls in an effort to make him look good, which then sweeps up some volunteer fanboys to help find a good fight. These are not good faith actors.

Effective_End8731

That's revenue but what's the fixed cost + variable cost per MW look like and whats the % vacancy they can tolerate on that server space when you consider the equipment will become outdated whether it is used or not? I look at it as digital real estate except that digital performance suffers from two things that land doesn't. A full-replacement reinvestment rate at 5-7 years, maybe faster if AI evolves so fast that this years hardware is insufficient for models designed 2 years from now. A home on physical land has a reinvestment rate of about 30 years to do full replacement (some of those parts will replace multiple times). The next thing I see is digital real estate can expand upwards exponentially fast, meaning I can fit 10 tenants next year where I previously fit 1. This seems like a good thing until you consider how much data center competition there will be in 5-10 years but how models will become more time and energy efficient as chips become more efficient and the model only needs to be "so good" to answer the general persons questions and the average business problem - not every one of these data centers will be hosting the Anthropic latest model, a LOT of data center rental space is going to be used for second tier and third tier lower power and custom developed models. So you have a long term problem where the more data centers the more price competition (I see this happening within 2 to 3 years) but the demand for data centers will go down as chip technology increases leading to renters needing less and less space. I see data center business being strong for about 3-5 years and then possibly getting cut throat competitive and a large number of these companies putting massive investment in, will be barely profitable 5-10 years out as the first generation of full hardware replacement comes due. The revenues look incredible but also count the Staff, Water, and Electricity that these massive structures need and how the price of these utilities is inflating at a wild pace.

music_is_gud

Her looking at me A LOT whenever we are across? Like she looks at me while I'm with my friends and what not, and I catch her looking at me almost always...

Effective_End8731

You are absolutely right, I am more focused on OPs question about the long term. Semiconductors tend to repeat the same cycle though Boom, Oversupply, Price Crash, Recovery Versus the steady platform style companies that have held steady growth trajectories. You are not wrong, they will be around forever. From OPs question of long term where is most of the value created? I still personally think we hit the boom part already and a lot of expansion is already priced in that these companies now need to deliver results to maintain. At \~40x P/E (I think last I looked at MU)- these companies have a lot of room to grow to catch up to their pricing. If their pricing too far outpaces the rate at which they can increase capacity or our ability to supply the rare metals to make them creates a choke point - they will halt growth and possibly backpedal. 40 P/E isn't much in a bull economy, but it is asking a lot in a non-bull economy. It's been a while since we've had a true recessive pull back impacting tech, covid did not do that to the tech sector because work from home fueled a whole new demand for computing power and budding AI created new demand for new chip architecture. There will be growth in all of these across the board. Not a position to exit, but there are many other sub components to the equation that have yet to realize their associated growth as well. As another comment noted too - we are producing almost 30% more etfs this year than the normal expected growth rate. There is a LOT of artificial demand in the market from yield hungry investors dumping funds into new ETFs, and high density of thematic ETFs has usually been a precursor to a major correction. Just trying to cover all the points. Semis aren't necessarily the point of largest gain in my opinion at this point.

Spy300

Imagine thinking its rate hikes when its really remove all guidance, redefine inflation, and cut rates >TRUMP: PROBABLY TALK ABOUT CUTTING RATES WITH WARSH >TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” >TRUMP SAYS HE THINKS WARSH UNDERSTANDS HE WANTS LOWER RATES, WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN JOB HAD HE SAID HE WANTED TO RAISE RATES >TRUMP: WARSH WILL CUT RATES WITHOUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURE >TRUMP: WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, WE MAKE A LOT OF MONEY >TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT >TRUMP: I HAVE THE GREATEST PLAN OF ALL, WON'T REVEAL WHAT IT IS >TRUMP: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! >BESSENT: RATES PEAKED THE DAY BEFORE WARSH WAS SWORN IN >BESSENT: 100% APPROVE OF THE FED GETTING RID OF FORWARD GUIDANCE >DALY SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE NOT GOOD AT THIS JUNCTURE >WARSH: I DONT BELIEVE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN

Throwaway-4593

This is exactly right, the biggest indicator of an AI bubble would be mag7 capex decreasing. And Google wanted more cash BECAUSE they are increasing capex, not vice versa. Not to mention this fed chair is trying to justify decreasing rates more. This market is going to continue to fly at the cost of high inflation. That said, you simply can’t afford to not be heavily invested right now or you are leaving A LOT on the table.

HAND__EGG

This.. Theres A LOT of bad actor bots like this

Astronaut100

I never said they lose money. The problem is their evangelical, cult like promotion of VT. With VT, you won’t lose money long term, but you’re also leaving a LOT of money on the table because that exposure to every halfwit company on the planet will drag down the small percentage of winners. No one needs exposure to 10,000 stocks; it’s just absurd.

Emilio___Molestevez

it's A LOT more than $100k

Debrispoboy

I lost A LOT of money trading futures. I've bet on sports for 20 years and lost 1/10th what I have in one year of trading futures. I recommend everyone stay away until they've paper traded for a while and have a solid plan.

iamtracefree

They have approx 270m shs out. To uplist you need at least $4, which would mean a mkt cap of over $1B...that is A LOT. This industry trades at 4-5X sales...meaning CHUC would need to be doing $250m in sales. You dont find too many otcqb stocks generating that type of revenue.

Old_Culture_3825

That's one heck of a bias not supported by facts. FOMO's operate on both sides and rarely win. Risk mitigators tend to miss upside but miss a LOT of downside. Risk takers rarely take it off the table. Go to Vegas and sit at a few tables. The only alternative to my POV is buy and hold for decades. proven strategy. I'm just suggesting unless you are Buffet or 23 years old investing now and with strong supportive, financially educated parents (shout out to: multi-gen wealthy parents - wish I had some when I was young!), either buy and hold for 35 years or, if you have supportive folks to coach you when to walk away and stay out you can make even more. There is no third approach. You aren't looking for the 'biggest rally" (which is often followed by another significant drop - have a look). If you could walked from Dow around 13.5k in 2007 and then back in around 8,000 anytime around Jan-Apr 2009 the gains you made were significantly higher than buy and hold. And that is exactly what I did. I didn't buy at the bottom and sell at the top - impossible. But I did hit it close enough. I learned from the shit show of Internet 1.0 and then studied the history of disaster (versus flash crash stuff not related to fundamentals). Did it again in Covid, albeit much shorter lived, really enjoyed grabbing JPMC on sale around $75. This one about to hit is going to produce a lot of profits for the bold. And, hopefully, my kids when I die. YMMV. You do you. No passion here. But I'm comfortable in my decisions and thinking here, as well. This one could be generational wealth if you buy anywhere near the lows - AI is the real deal. But there will be pain first.

tortu995

Once people realize that oracle basically did what Saylor hoped to do with microstrategy, stock will be way way higher. Ellison took on cheap and massive debt to secure loads of compute which now is very scarce and can bank A LOT. $orcl

HAND__EGG

Whatever reddit says loudly and obnoxiously is the opposite of what will actually happen. So yeah. Its not crashing and will make a lot and i mean A LOT of angry people here on this website.. The ceo has them by the collective balls in their heads lol

SoggyCrab

Lol it's going to dip when some folks take out their shares. Will it absolutely tank? I highly doubt it. What most people don't realize is America has tied itself to SpaceX as their horse in the new race to monetize space and control it. There is A LOT of money going into space mining, both on the moon AND asteroids. Think of it this way. Do you jump ship early or do you wait for the company (which, mind you, is directly supported by the United States government) to grow into a titan like Amazon where your shares aren't worth 100$ but 1000$. Google just announced they are paying 900mil A MONTH for AI computing capacity. Is the way they are trying to push this IPO sketchy as hell? Omg yes. But they are doing it to build investment in SpaceX so they can then use that money to fund their dominance in the field before anyone else can.

hudson701

Yeah.... Vietnam/Thailand, that's a LOT of money

Level10Retard

It's one of those that's obvious in hindsight. (Give me all the "didn't read, happy for you or sorry it happened" comments) - Look at the public push, it's insane. In my social circle, a bunch of financially uneducated people are waiting for it. They will not buy in the first hour or even the first day. They'll see how it's going and if it goes up they'll FOMO and if it goes down they'll be afraid to go in. It needs to steadily go up in the beginning for most people to not be afraid. The institutions know this, obviously. - Yes, the valuation is crazy, doesn't connect to the fundamentals at all. But a huge part of the retail genuinely don't even know what's a market cap or p/e ratio. - There's a bunch of Elon Musk knuckleheads. They might even counteract the dump part of the pump and dump. - And this point will be hated by the terminally online autists (I'm talking about you retards). Elon (his teams) have done quite some incredible things. Tesla, SpaceX, neurolink, even on Twitter he has cut down the costs significantly, like really significantly. All these companies are the leaders, by quite big margins as well, in their industries and were the first ones to do their thing. Accelerating these fields years, maybe even like 10, into the future. Tesla not anymore compared to China but anything in the western world - easily. The robots will not take over our chores anytime soon, but damn they'll be amazing factory workers soon™. His timelines are complete nonsense, but he does achieve the things he says he will. Sometimes it might be decades off (Mars) but still years ahead of the competition. - xAI has A LOT of GPU compute, you don't think about xAI when you hear "hyperscalers" but it definitely is. xAI build a huge data center in half a year, where other hyperscalers take 3 - 4 years to build an equivalent one. You can't deny this shit, when compute is all the hype. Even if LLMs fail, they'll be the king until the next thing comes and it'll require compute anyways. We have *always* needed more and more compute and it's not changing. He managed to build a data center in record time when data centers are one of the most constrained resources currently.

Inevitable_Flan_2912

One of the smartest, most apt lines I ever remember seeing, tho' I forget the source and who came up with it in tje 1st place ... "born in the right year." I live in a tourist city (the go-to port for cruises to Alaska) with a pervasive (and growing) drugs and street people problem, and I see it every day — as I step over street people sleeping on the pavement. There is a LOT of money out there, all those cruise-ships passengers (1500-3000 people per ship) wearing brand new clothes and looking as if they haven't missed too many meals — and they're virtually ALL the same age. Boomers of a certain cohort. Yes, there's a lot of truth to the line "born in the right year," though not many of them would care to admit it.

Dealer_Existing

Mehh not entirely true. The brain and intelligence is trainable. That’s why education makes you smarter, university learns you how to apply critical thinking and apply research. However if you just decide to freewheel stuff without putting in effort to learn and think that your years of experience has to be sufficient to become a master option trader then yeah, you’ll have an edge with a higher IQ or life experience. There’s a reason rookie traders on Wallstreet lose money and you have to grow and learn into the profession. There is a LOT of learning involved. Buying and selling short term options based on gut and feeling is just gambling lmao

Ok-Equipment8303

That's literally not true. While addictive personality disorder does seem to run in families, there is a LOT people can do about it.

alfred250

Reminds me A LOT of the Bill Hwang ViacomCBS dump. Our boy might be pulling strings behind bars.

YourChildhood5762

I was joking but there seems to be a lot (A LOT, A LOT) of talk lately about how the SpaceX IPO is going to be good for everyone's retirement accounts. /s Frankly Scarlet, I'm unconcerned.

No-Government-195

I like this A LOT! I was down $1 MM at end of 25 and am almost back even after today. $MSOX if you really have conviction. I would rotate Trulieve into GTII in about 2 weeks. Let Kim cook on NYSE then scalp her for what Ben has planned. Never seen an easier 3x in my entire lifetime.