LOT

PassableForAWombat

Your average oil trader. House wins a LOT there

antwanlb

Yep, the more i use claude, the more anthropic loses money. Thst's because i dont have a subscription. And if they make claude subscription only? Ill be forced to get an open source model. Km not the majority, but its crazy to assume there arent a LOT of people who do the same thing. The more useless ai i see on my tl, the more money i assume those companies are losing

WkndWarrior12345054

that is A LOT OF employees

ReturnOfBigChungus

The AI race from a technology standpoint is different than the market dynamics of current AI financing. The whole circular financing story is very real, and the risk that all this CapEx do not produce the projected financial productivity is very real. The issue is they're all locked in at this point - you HAVE to keep dumping cash in to stay competitive (or competitive-ish in Meta's case) in terms of model capability, but a new frontier model only keeps you near the lead for a few months. Then in 6 months, the model that you spent billions training is competing with a model that's delivering the same capability for 1/10th the price you would need to charge to recoup your costs. The bet is that they eventually produce something so capable that you just run away with the race, but unless you believe ASI is right around the corner it's more rational to look at the last few years of the economics and see that most of these models don't actually recoup cost. There's also legitimate risk in the way that AI companies are currently depreciating their hardware. They're using (mostly) ~6 year depreciation schedules, but the hardware is only economically productive for about 3 years, so there is a LOT of risk of future impairment charges which directly hits profit. The basis of the story is that frontier models are more expensive to build than the profit they generate. Add to that the fact that there's a huge amount of circular financing going on, and you have the potential for a vicious cycle on the way down if things stall out. These financing arrangement are essentially NVIDIA giving AI companies money to then buy their products. That works when everything is going well, but if things go a bit sideways it creates massive contagion. There's a very close parallel to the late 90s telco bubble which used nearly identical financing structures. It's not a guarantee that it's a bubble that's going to pop but it's a very precarious situation that is pricing in perfection against what are very likely optimistic projections on the economics.

Stonk_Trader69420

here it comes... :clifford: :clifford: :clifford: a LOT of sale action happening

User-NetOfInter

Lol “operating costs” ignore A LOT of

AnyStatistician2535

That's why gold is still worth a LOT more than Bitcoin - its market cap is like 20x that of BTC. But I think it's probable that Bitcoin will catch up in usage as a store of value because of its many superior properties to gold: _more_ portable, _more_ easily verifiable, _more_ scarce, _more_ divisible, etc... If this plays out, the gap between the two would close significantly. Note that multiple governments have already started holding Bitcoin in various forms such as central bank assets or sovereign fund investments... In 10-20 years we may see it eclipsing gold as a reserve asset.

Syllabub_Visual

So tell me how the ai bubble pops WITHOUT anthropic or openai execs going to prison … this scale makes Sam bankman fried and do Kwon look tiny and they’re the ones who brought down their entire industries … you simply wouldn’t be throwing all this money at complete money pits at valuations that make zero sense if there wasn’t some kind of massive fraud here propping this all up … I might be right on this and make A LOT of money…

Syllabub_Visual

I built a consumer ai startup that reached a valuation of $130m and led it to exit. Was it easy in terms of the execution and actually trying to convince people of our product? Absolutely not, got A LOT of no’s. On the other hand did it also happen much faster than I expected and did we start getting money thrown at us once we slapped ai onto everything? Also yes. Then again I see seed rounds more than our entire valuation all the time now given ai. And anthropic and openai reaching trillion dollar scale on smoke and mirrors is true moral corruption. Because of my Silicon Valley mindset, I’ll just say that anything below $10b feels tiny and even though I objectively made a lot of money (and had a very rigorous technical background and at one point did very very difficult math research), I’m undoubtedly insecure when I see English majors who joined these places as sales reps two years ago from state schools getting MUCH MUCH richer than I am because their equity happened to explode, and some English majors have even reached the very very top of this industry. Look if my next startup can reach even 0.1% of Anthropic’s valuation I think I’d call that a win, but my perspective these days has just been so distorted and I still remain a gambling addict.

MerryRunaround

A smart risk manager with a lot of capital can sell options indefinitely. It's just a matter of using a sensible, consistent strategy while holding enough uncommitted capital to absorb all drawdowns. People who trade too big and stress their margins get burned. Fake gurus like tastytrade tell you how to sell options but what they don't tell you is you need a LOT of capital to make it all worthwhile. Nobody with $10k is ever going to sell enough options to justify the time they must spend.

Legitimate_Cut_6254

My wife and I own small businesses and I'm an AI Engineer for a corporate position. I automated A LOT of our bookkeeping work, my wife has a personal email assistant that automatically drafts scheduling emails, I use it to manage her website. I run a large ecommerce platform and manage products, shipments, price tracking for my website. On and On. At my corpo position, I'm essentially an internal FDE and Solutions Lead, I'll get pulled into large corporate initiatives to look for opportunities to apply AI. Every time I claim something people will literally, pull me into a meeting and say "I don't believe you, show me". These aren't rocket science initiatives. Its like, creating web apps for workflow management or conversion efforts from legacy products. A manager from a different team, pulled me into a meeting friday afternoon because he didn't believe my claim we could move them entirely off a legacy platform in a few months. I live refactored 40 workflows and called out countless defects in 30 minutes over video. He was like... oh... how do i get that tech? \- My question is the growth, not the utility. How many people are jumping on the bandwagon after missing it for 2 years? I know a lot of business's are cost cutting and controlling efficient use of the tools. Is the growth going to come from latecomers? Or people creating re-occuring processes that need token spend?

MikeCheck_CE

October 15, 2026, Elon Musk posted on X that "China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028," (Then follow up later with: Micron has been “reasonable regarding future memory prices, while others have been extortionate") - in other words he got what he needed from Micron now.

Novel-Green-2368

Indeed. Few think it’ll just “go-away”. But since this is a “stocks” thread - I guarantee there will be a LOT of bankrupt AI companies and data center builders that will just “go-away” as they incinerate money chasing “closed-models” while companies wake-up and learn to utilize “open-models” that are free or cost fractions then use their own hardware to run their data and answer their questions.

Syllabub_Visual

1 in 3 boomers have a net worth above $1m, nearly 10% have a net worth above $5m, and over 1% are worth over $20m (and even at the lower end over 75% are worth over $250k). That’s A LOT of people, yet Reddit LOVES to pretend everyone is poor and I’m assuming their parents are probably boomers, so “ask your parents” isn’t the bad advice they love to pretend it is. That’s a huge amount of money that will be inherited by these people who love to complain how bad everything is, but will still get yolo’d back into the markets. 

Flat_corp

I’m an estimator for large commercial construction projects, so a LOT of excel and a LOT of PDF’s. It has significantly improved my productivity and frankly my sanity. Not having to dig through 30 page spec books is fuckin huge. That said I still fail to see how its meaningfully produced a quantifiable value for most sectors. In my case I can bid faster, make less errors, and while I don’t trust it for pricing it has definitely allowed me to catch things that increased our net profit on certain projects.

LeCollectif

Actually I want to clarify my point here a bit more. You are not wrong that it is possible that many costs surrounding AI may drop. That, however is of no benefit to you as a consumer. The frontier model companies are carrying a profound amount of debt. And they are subsidizing their product by 8x to 200x with the hope of so deeply integrating the product into everything we do that we HAVE to pay the bill when it comes due. But that is a LOT of money. So when the real costs come online, customers will choose not to buy it. It will be too expensive. So even as the costs of AI drop on the model front, they need to do so at a pace that makes it viable to pay back that debt and eventually become profitable. And as of right now, it’s not looking like it’s going to happen.

TrashBandicook

We're in midterms season, expect the disinformation campaigns to heat up. Even leading up to 2024, there was a LOT of astroturfing. Half this subreddit was firmly in the mango camp and did a 180 not even 1 month into his presidency.

McOmghall

Not the majority, but relative to previous months there's a LOT of short interest

LtUnsolicitedAdvice

I think your point makes sense. But the huge caveat is, you have to do a LOT more work to make sure you don't get wiped out. There is also the aspect of selecting the right trades (eg. dont sell puts on a stock which has risen 20% in the last month). I found my sweet spot somewhere in the middle - 14-21 DTE. Gives enough time to adjust for overnight movements that go against you, which has come in handy during the last 2 weeks.

TimeTravelingChris

Well here is the thing, he called this weeks / months ago and BI reporting on Amazon just confirmed it. So you can say it's incomplete but his method is pretty common sense. Nvidia discloses sales and deals, and the companies building the DCs announce capacity and completion. It's no secret that A LOT of the DC construction has been delayed or cancelled for a number of reasons. He's just one of the few pointing this out. Personally, I think warehousing of excess chips is one of the least compelling arguments for a bubble. Open weight models and lower cost competition is the real long term risk to the current structure.

ykoreaa

That's A LOT just to open/close your contract!

jrex035

Thanks, I've spent a LOT of time learning about energy markets and tankers these past few months haha >This has gone on for much longer than the market expected I come from an international relations/conflict resolution background so I knew this crisis would not be shortlived or easy to resolve. The market has been insanely complacent and naive this entire crisis, but hey it's helped me make lots of money so I'm not too mad about it. Imo the market is still overly optimistic about both the chances for an end to the crisis and is failing to appreciate the importance of *how* the crisis ends. We're never returning to a pre-war status quo again, but the market still seems to think oil will be back at $60 a barrel within a few weeks of the war ending. It's not gonna happen.

AllCapNoBrake

A LOT of triggered blue hairs in here today.... https://preview.redd.it/1ubzcotd39xh1.png?width=398&format=png&auto=webp&s=df2a67d87d4f4d809e8cc7348de0bbe7befbfabb

kairepaire

17-years long bull market (COVID was a short dip). That spawned a LOT of bulls over time.

BraPaj2121

I made 20-30% on Meta, Microsoft in like a month when they dipped recently. I would have held them but had to sell bc was moving funds to different account. Just dumped money in Google, Amazon and UAL.. they look like great buys right now. Buy dips on successful companies with a good performance history. Pretty simple. A LOT of panic selling last few years. Everyone try to time the market.

Valkyrie_Skuld

yeah she's like A LOT more normal and honestly the best person to be in the ER with and I need to call her back tomorrow, I suck

putmeinthetrash420

I’m looking at this from an ‘evil investor’ perspective, not a ‘make the world a better place’ perspective. This is the WSB sub..a lot of you guys are…idw say evil, but that’s what I mean. I think times have changed A LOT btwn the measles vaccine and now. I think that, unfortunately, we are living thru a period where everything is driven by corporate profit, even when it’s explicitly not benefitting the masses. Almost especially when it’s not benefitting them. Idk where the anti vaxxer or ‘pseudo intellectualism’ sentiment came from, bc that has *nothing* to do with me or my opinions. Isn’t research the more expensive part of getting a drug onto the market anyway? Also public investment isn’t the only source of income these companies have access to. I’m not an investor or familiar with drug trials in any way.

Iwantobegoodatrade

I have A LOT of Most shorted stocks small caps!

krakoi90

This is so ridiculous. Humanoids can only last for a few hours without charging. Even if technology improves A LOT and they last close to a day, it is still impossible to achieve anything with them in a war. And they will always be more expensive and slower to make than less complex robots. Why spend tens of thousands of dollars on a humanoid robot that can be blown up using a cheap-ass drone costing a few hundred bucks? You guys watch too much dumb sci-fi. There will be robots on the battlefield, such as the cheap drones used in Ukraine, small dog-like or rolling ground robots, and self-driving armored carriers for them. Quantity over quality.

Pale_Guest_5136

Moderna still has a LOT to lose.

bearhunter429

#I totally predicted this market crash and it will get A LOT worse. This is just the beginning. LMAO🤌🍁

Wonderful-Kangaroo52

https://www.reddit.com/r/WorkReform/comments/vh1lvn/i_compiled_a_list_of_average_incomes_and_rents_by/ I'm guessing he is exaggerating a bit, but there are a LOT of countries near or under 20 percent. USA is absolutely fucked in that regard.

Professional-One972

Umm nah dude. 26B is a LOT. Even by Meta standards.

Amdvoiceofreason

If you sell a covered call and a put at 180 while NVDA is at 220 the premium for the call is gonna be a LOT higher like $4,000 higher than the put

Skyrage01

Tesla is component capped at the moment and will be so for a few more years until Terafab comes online and runs efficiently and they are able to source enough Lithium. They have their own refinery now but I dunno whether it runs optimally given it has only been online for a few months let alone if it produces enough by itself. Given the ravenous hunger for semiconductors right now the component cap will probably last for quite a while still. Probably even if China were to start adding their batch to the world market - assuming they will at all. Frankly I hope that Tesla will at the very least start looking into sodium batteries for their megapacks in order to alleviate lithium consumption. Storage business is massively growing and is still at it's very infancy globally and there is a LOT of profit to be made there still.

Piss_baby29

Well to answer that, let's take a look at your example: gold. You said if you control a large share of peoples needs for food, energy, etc. But what needs does gold actually fill? Wheat feeds you, oil runs our cars. But gold? You can't eat it or use it to grow food, it doesn't offer any practical use in terms of every day life. Sure it looks cool, and it's used in jewelry and some electronics, but compared to huge commodities like oil and food, it doesn't really match up. So if theres little practical use for it, how does it give you power, a share of peoples needs as you put it. Well it's simple: because we BELIEVE it's valuable. It's scarce, so people are willing to spend lots of money to get it off you. And the only reason they're willing to do so is because they know that in the future, other people will be willing to buy it off them just as they did. So despite it's lack of practical use, gold has historically meant economic power mostly just due to it's scarcity. (and the fact it's pretty doesn't hurt either) So now ask yourself, is there really a difference between gold and crypto? Crypto is something that offers no practical use, you can't use it to feed yourself, or run your car, or build houses. It doesn't really DO anything. But it's scarce, it's popular, and people are willing to pay a LOT of money for it. And for that reason, it has power. Sure you can touch and see gold, it's a physical object. But you can also touch and see a normal rock, and those don't have much less practical use than gold does. Yet gold is valuable, rock isn't. So whether it's a physical object or just a number kept digitally on a computer doesn't really matter. It's scarce and people want it. So yes, you can argue that crypto is kinda dumb. But then you would have to admit that gold is also dumb. Frankly, our entire modern economy is built on this idea that anything can hold value as long as everybody believes it does. And I didn't even use this example, but you know what ELSE has no practical use and yet has economic power? Money. Seriously. It's just a piece of paper, it literally has zero use besides acting as fire fuel for like 3 seconds. And yet, our entire economy is built upon it simply because we believe it. So sure, I can get behind crypto being dumb. Because it's all dumb. It seems crazy that our world economy can be based around useless slips of paper. And yet, it works.

Syllabub_Visual

Feel like Reddit is representative of the bottom 10-20% of the us which is not exactly a good place to be and the hard truth is that A LOT of people are there because they have issues. It’s a total tragedy when you let people fall into addiction or mental health spirals and don’t do anything about it and unfortunately lots of politicians refuse to talk about it because it’s unpopular, but acknowledging this is really the only way you’re gonna fix it. Look many of us have issues and I’ll admit I have them too but therapy has really been the game changer and it’s an uncomfortable conversation people need to have. I mean with homeless people simply giving them housing isn’t exactly gonna fix things and that’s why you need treatment to actually give them a chance at a better life. Reddit is PROBABLY mostly Russian and Chinese bots but for those that are real I do wonder who influenced them because this is the complete opposite of what our parents and grandparents told us.  For some of us our great grandparents came from complete poverty (and I’m not talking about the us definition of poverty but EXTREME third world poverty, think famine and conflict zones) and still managed to build a life and build wealth and raise very successful generations, so I do feel like some of the economic concerns are exaggerated (I mean the economy is doing better than ever based on the macro stats), especially when people coming from MUCH WORSE situations manage to do very well.

BearishBabe42

Eli Lilly is 5x the size, ofcourse they have more products. But they don't have 5x the earnings, and novo has a higher relative fcf. They both spend a LOT on r&d, but novo has more coops with government backed institutions. In the end I believe eli Lilly will outpace novo for a while longer, but in a ten year + perspective, I think novo is going to gain a lot more than lly.

PassableForAWombat

If it wasn't for the fact that the finance sector as a whole is definitely secondary-order affected by the AI issues I'd have a LOT more conviction in SCHD. As it is right now I'm not sure who will be the ultimate debt-owner of the buildout, because JPM/BOA are both very heavily wrapped up in it and will likely be the next to be merged into another

Rez-the-man-123

That explains A LOT

Bulky-Internal8579

Elon Musk is a criminal, a fascist, a pedophile and a liar. He was born rich and won the lottery on investments with a LOT of help from government subsidies. He never invented anything. If we get a halfway decent AG in January of 2029 he'll be headed to prison - all those investigations he was able to pay off Trump to quash aren't going anywhere. You might want to find someone else to boot lick.

Sawyerthesadist

Stock market making me want to drink… **A LOT**

AndItsThetaAgain

Idk… you guys bitch out a LOT

bostrovsky

it's doable, just complicated. the parts that tripped me up were assignments showing up as separate stock entries and rolls, order leg descriptions don't match transaction descriptions, Signs are always positive whether you are buying or selling. corporate actions don't matchup by description. split fills are different orders. generally the data is messy because it comes from so many sources (brokerage, exchange, clearing house, etc.). it's possible but it ins't a single prompt and there is a LOT of deterministic code to pull it all together.

JeanSneaux

The free or low-cost versions they're all using aren't making nearly enough money to justify the debt and capex. Companies will have to jack up subscription prices and/or charge companies a LOT more for the data they harvest. This isn't like rideshare apps where they get everyone hooked then raise prices, because rideshare apps don't have to pay for monumental amounts of compute to make the business profitable. People adopting it widely does not necessarily mean the business model works.

BarbellPadawan

Don’t take steroids. So many people do. It’s generally really dumb—an argument might be if you’re genetically gifted and trying to become a pro body builder (I’m guessing this isn’t the case). TRT is only if you have low T *and* symptoms of low T (like really low libido, or ED). If you go on the internet and read about TRT it will sound like a godsend panacea, everyone writing about how they feel 18 again. They are full of shit. The actual research proves that the “improvements” that might exist are SUPER subtle, almost imperceptible. About 40% of people who start TRT are continuing it at 2 years because it’s such a minimal—if any—improvement, and administration is annoying, etc. Taking supraphysiologic doses has high side effect risks (almost certainly you’ll get shitty skin, and slightly less likely but still commonly other SEs like testicular shrinkage, prostate issues, heart issues, polycythemia, etc). Most people who use exogenous steroids look like shit anyway. You can do A LOT natty with just lifestyle modification (good diet, sleep, and training). Even using exogenous steroids, you won’t make much progress without lifestyle being **absolutely** dialed anyway. So if you do decide to do it, I’d encourage you to dial in lifestyle consistently for at least 3 months (no booze, lifting 3-4x per week, really healthy diet, 7-8 hrs of sleep every night) before making that commitment.

Fast-Reply6409

Sometimes I get ChatGPT to do something, then I drop the results into ChatGPT and ask it to review and fix it, and it has A LOT of thoughts on the fixes. It's funny

TickTockTaudit

Any of you young bucks autocross? There are some good deals out there for stock 370zs. That’s A LOT of car to get into racing with

Rude_Dragonfruit2214

Please stop now! 400K IS STILL A LOT OF MONEY DONT LOSE THAT ALSO

Syllabub_Visual

Does MAGA when complaining about “cultural change” ever realize that there are A LOT of hot Latinas? Or they’re really serious about their grievances and that’s why their champions end up being THINGS like the former dumbass ugly demented deranged presssec. I’ve mostly lived in SoCal and SoFlo and have met a lot of hot Latinas and even they tend to be MAGA as well.

Impossible_Way7017

How can margins be so high for compute, it’s a commodity, shouldn’t they be razor thin - does that mean optimistically AI costs can fall by a LOT more?

Syllabub_Visual

It’s almost contradictory that someone can look like that and have a REALLY fucked up personal life and have A LOT of problems. Found out that some of them have even been to jail and honestly wonder what it’s like to be hot and in jail. Even if they get a million followers the amount they make on ig seems to be really low and some rich russian guy funds their lifestyles instead. ON THE OTHER HAND, there are some pretty ugly people who’ve made truly astounding amounts on OF.

slope93

Yo this dude shits A LOT

TemporaryCapital3871

I was widowed with a 9 yr old at 39, had to start from scratch, worked 4 months for $12/hr for a complete douchebag that was 4 years younger than me and started with $2500 and built a business with over $1.4 million/yr in revenue within 2 years. Saved and still lived like I was making $12/hr. Learn from it. I also lived through 2008, the year my daughter was born at 26 weeks and lost everything due to being in steel distribution on the construction side. Point is, youre 33. You have A LOT OF LIFE AND TIME. You clear 10k/month. You want to know what you should do, and its just my opinion, live off of 5k if you can. Spread it out, actually keep more cash on hand ATM and be ready to buy the dip thats about to hit, its just my opinion, but its tracking like we're overdue. I hope im wrong there. I took a 8% loss this week over my modest investment portfolio, so I feel you. STOP GAMBLING, I think the statistics on someone who can successfully trade options is under 1%, but what do I know. Good luck and keep your chin up.

ALth0r

Broad market is not. Ai names lost a LOT in a matter of 1 week only.

CuteAmoeba9876

12 months is A LOT of emergency fund.  Most financial gurus recommend 3-6months. If you’re single, don’t own a home, don’t have any dependents, and work in a field where it would be easy to find a new job, 3 months is enough.  Sure there are scenarios where 12 months makes sense- like if your company is talking about layoffs, you have a very specialized job that’s hard to replace, you own your own business, have 5 kids depending on your paycheck alone, etc.  I doubt you individually actually need 12 mo of EF. So you’ve got a 6 mo EF with a bunch of extra cash towards your house/car/wedding/travel etc goals.  My husband and I drive 2 paid off cars, both 4 years old. In about 5 years, I’m sure we’ll want to replace at least one of them. So I’m putting $ into stock ETFs towards that goal. When we reach the point where we think we’re 1 year out, I’ll switch to saving cash and probably sell the stock in chunks to get the money to buy. If the car dies unexpectedly, we’ll have warranties, insurance, the stocks, and our regular emergency fund to potentially cover the fix or purchase. I don’t feel the need to keep the car fund in cash right now since we don’t know exactly when we’ll actually use it yet.  

onerandomcomputerguy

AVGO can fall A LOT more and I say that as someome with a pretty large position I am sad

EthanielRain

He isn't wrong, it is proof of concept (the concept being that there are a LOT of gullible morons out there)

mellobri

So do you feel that because YOU don't have an answer to these problems, and that maybe nobody does, today, that mankind will NEVER be able to overcome them? I do see that you suggest 100 years to revisit the question, what if we come up with answers next week? Next year? Every major accomplishment in recorded history has a LOT of people that say the same thing right before it happened.

DoubtNeither3927

NVDA alone doesn't tell the story. It's up roughly 20% in the last 12 months, sure, but over a ~3-5 year period? Way, way higher. But NVDA is growing revenue AND profit, which is rare right now in the sector. Why? Because it's selling the shovels for the gold rush. Even then, through circular financing, it is under-writing a lot of the companies buying it's GPUs, which is troubling in itself, but can also explain some of their revenue growth. Now to the broader AI play... That's where the bubble is. Put simply, the cost of AI is far, far outstripping the revenue. Not by a bit, by A LOT. Some would argue that (like dotcom or AWS) the capex is to drive revenue growth and will pay back X-fold over the mid-long term. But that's not how the tech works, their main expense items aren't scaling (and likely won't ever) to support revenue growth. - they are pumping billions into DC build outs and stocking them with GPUs that have a very short life (2-3 years), that won't generate the revenue to justify payback - even then, roughly half their computing power goes into model development and training. They try to argue that's R&D and will diminish over time, but it's hard to see how this isn't an operational expense - I.e. if they stop training models, they become less useful or obsolete (model drift)... - then there's inference... What they generally claim they're profitable on. If we discount those first two massive expense items, we are profitable when we offer up our models to users as the cost of their use covers the cost of the compute used to serve them. Sure, but you can't ignore the first two. And, the more people use your models, the more compute you need, I.e. it's not scaling. Don't look at NVDA to be the bellwether for the bubble. There are lots of pets.com examples out there. Last week, in Australia, Firmus pulled an IPO priced in the 10's of billions for a company making $50m in revenue and no profit that had two DC leases and a bunch of ambitious plans, nothing more. To me that's an early indicator that the bubble is starting to deflate as people start to realise the math isn't mathing.

WhiteBat_8416

thats just some usual anti-ai bullshit you can be a LOT faster and still retain high quailty whats happening in the article is separate from what AI can or cant do and it can definitely speed up work significantly when used correctly

DrSeuss1020

I’ve lost a LOT of money from my ATH 5 months ago. Multi 6 figures from the high just holding shares, nothing in options. I’m trying to be self aware and realize that greed can make you feel invincible when things are going your way. It feels awful, but we just had a meeting with my autistic kid’s fifth grade teacher and she shared a note with me that he wrote “about my dad” and he wrote “my dad makes me feel better and safe when I’m not feeling good”. I wana cry

Syllabub_Visual

I just calculated that I would’ve made $8 MILLION today had I held my spy 0dte puts to the very bottom. Instead I made 467k, objectively a lot but I’ve lost A LOT more than that in the past couple of weeks plus this was a crazy high risk degen bet in a highly volatile position. I actually chose the right direction for once and I guess my account is big enough that it’s not exactly the end of the world but after learning this of course I’m pissed, especially for the amount of risk I took. Like what do you even do in situations like this? The one time I was right I missed out on an absolutely MASSIVE gain.

mudbuttcoffee

We have A LOT of 5 year old minded adults. Have you seen the sheer amount of cyber dumpsters on the road?

McOmghall

Somebody made A LOT of money off oil a few minutes ago https://preview.redd.it/z50smbu0avvh1.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=34404d95c0cb228b5404608cc2a544feb995456e

AltruisticCupcake831

Good explanation, thanks! All I know about insurance is I've given them A LOT of money and have never needed them. Knock on wood. Never needed in the sense of filing a claim. Need them to drive and such.

N8erTat

I've only heard "sell as soon as it vest vests and diversify into voo" for RSUs. Maybe it makes sense here but it makes A LOT more sense there.

fmaz008

*slightly faster* is an understatement. It's A LOT faster... As in, if I was to 100% trust AI, not audit much and just vibe code everything away, I could tackle a few months long project in 2-3 days. And that's not even talking about automating maintenance. For example: monitor errors logs, if more than X users encounter an error, have an agent analyze it against the code base and submit a pull request with a patch and a detailed bug report. Only need an experience person to review the PR and approve it if it's valid. There are definitely real massive avantage to AI. The problems are mainly: - the cost for the business using AI - the AI companies needs to be profitable - losing a human understanding of your code base. (AI slop is real and as it adds up, it tend to overcomplicate implementations) - I could foresee some liability concerns as well when something goes wrong and everyone blame the AI.

DBDude

>Nearly 300lbs of dead weight is A LOT when it comes to pushing track records. The weight matters for acceleration and cornering. The thrusters far more than make up for the extra weight. People said electric cars could never be fast around a track because of the vastly increased weight, and here they are setting all kinds of records. >Cold gas thrusters have existed for a long time. Not on cars. >They are a brief, one-time slight acceleration boost followed by permanent decreased performance for the rest of the lap. There's no performance decrease. The drive motors don't power the compressor, so there's no leaching. There's only a range decrease. >It's not going to be some small thing like an air compressor for tires. It's certainly going to be powerful. But as it is, it's 1.6 seconds 0-60 fully loaded without the jets. So obviously that isn't an issue.

OneRougeRogue

Nearly 300lbs of dead weight is A LOT when it comes to pushing track records. Cold gas thrusters have existed for a long time. There's a reason professional drivers haven't been modifying their track cars with compressed air thrusters to try to push records. They are a brief, one-time slight acceleration boost followed by permanent decreased performance for the rest of the lap. Worse acceleration, worse handling, and slower braking with more wear. And you aren't factoring in the weight of the compressor to refill the tanks. It's not going to be some small thing like an air compressor for tires. Compressing 2,600 cubic feet of air to fill the tanks in any reasonable amount of time (say, less than 20 minutes) is going to take some fairly significant machinery.

sharp315

you need to start by maxing out your 401k and HSA accounts and also continue maxing out your Roth. do you really need a new house? the rate environment is a LOT different from when you bought your house. if you are comfortable where you are then take advantage of that rate and put every extra dollar to your investment portfolio. there is no need to pay down a 3% mortgage early.

Syllabub_Visual

Everybody knows that ilhan Omar is here illegally PLUS she married her own brother. Probably going to prison and I’m gonna make A LOT of money on this on the predictions markets (much much better than 0dtes)…

keelem

I hate that I'm wasting my time replying to this: Full self-driving robotaxis tesla bus $25,000 Tesla Optimus robots Mars Hyperloop Tunnels (e.g. DC Baltimore loop) $2T savings from DOGE (actually cost more money than saved) I'm sure there's a LOT more, all this moron does is bullshit all day.

WildFlowLing

Wow that was terrible by all expectations. They didnt even talk about the actual roadster… you know, the street legal one you can actually drive? And why did they have to redo and cyberfy the design?… it’s hideous compared to the “old” roadster 2 (RIP) As expected this was just an event to announce that it still doesn’t exist.. but not even showing the actual saleable street legal roadster? Oof Folks it means they haven’t designed a roadster without the gimmick demo bullshit. They spent years on just a tech demo that lasted 10 minutes. There is no roadster without the fans and the thrusters. See yall again in 2035 Also anyone notice the awkward silence and Elons face seemingly revealing that he realized this event was a cringe fail? Legit had more fanfare with the “original” roadster 2 (RIP) simply rolling onto stage back in 2017. That says A LOT… wow

elk33dp

It's really industry dependent though. Coding is (seemingly) one of the absolute best use case for AI since it's rules based and it can think and type much faster than any human ever could. It's a literal force multiplier. In other cases it's just a productivity boost. Something like law, you can have an AI subscription, but you still basically need to nitpick and read over the whole thing in detail. If there's inaccurate case law or incorrect assumptions, you need to redo it or have it try again. A LOT of attorneys would trust their paralegal's to do good work (and not make up case law or reference cases out of jurisdiction), so the attorneys who cheap out and use AI, thinking they can save on a paralegal, end up getting shit on in court. And it's absolutely not cheaper to have the attorney detail review. So you end up with a minor increase in efficiency with a paralegal being able to draft the initial brief and then detail review/modify it. I work in accounting and we've gone from "AI will be completing certain cookie cutter audits in 2-3 years" to "teams will be leveraging AI for efficiency" because the trial jobs have had a lot of hiccups. Tl;DR AI is useful but it's not completely 5-10xing productivity in every industry it touches.

vertpenguin

Brotha, I make over six figures and can hardly afford a house. Everything does suck. 2016 was a better time with A LOT less political divide. I think it’s cool but know it will only be affordable by the ultra wealthy in my lifetime

Zromaus

Exponentially higher downforce makes up for a LOT

loseitthrowaway7797

I don’t think that’s correct. I use it a LOT and I only spend like 1500 a month

mythrilcrafter

Have you noticed yourself experiencing more of "wanting to buy things that you know you can afford, but choosing to not buying them" lately? ---- Because I feel this A LOT. Like, I have myself set up on a 50/30/20 budget that I'm actually very consistent on abiding by, but whenever I encounter things that I know fits within my "30% for wants" spending... I put the thing back and don't follow through with the purchase because "what if I need that money later?" even though I have already accounted for that "what if I need that later" on a separate savings line in my budget.

McOmghall

Enough to drop rates by 30bp? That's a LOT of bonds.

JohnSnowHenry

What the hell are you saying? If AI disappears it’s the end for A LOT of companies… even if the costs increase majority would still need to double down since they are now dependent on it! In the bare minimum, it’s so important as the dotcom

PassableForAWombat

This bear market is going down like dotcom. So we will see a LOT of local highs and lows. Don't expect portfolios to look the same within the same 24 hours, it will not be straight down, and will end up bleeding out. a lot

Ok_Cry7572

Elon says China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028 Bro is only saying this cause they ain't giving him a discount for shit on his memory deals for his companies😂😂

Afraid-Policy-3648

"China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028" Direct enough to add pressure to selling, but vague enough to deny meaning anything once everyone realizes the crash is an overreaction

eromynAwonKtnoDI

*China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028* \-Elon Musk idiot elon strike again

warvold77

SK is currently lower than its july low. This makes me think it could drop A LOT more

MarthaJulietta

AI only integrated into like 8% of business today. There is a LOT of space to expand

_Thermalflask

Sure but people were saying stuff like this about the "virtually guaranteed" recession we were meant to get a few years back. The one that never happened. The one that lost bears a LOT of potential gains since then.

Syllabub_Visual

Southern California should become its own state and be a red zero tax state just like its sun belt counterparts in Dallas or Miami. I hate mango as much as anyone else, but I don’t think anyone wants to be governed by the high tax woke party either that doesn’t even have any hot people in it (all the hot girls in their 20s including BOTH the sorority blondes and the Latinas are all MAGA, it’s only fat blue haired people who support the dems, and if they hate rich people I’d expect that they’d hate newscum who has a net worth of $90 MILLION). We just want a tax rate of 0% and zero regulations that hurt private businesses and anyone who disagrees is lying to themselves. The reason SoCal is blue is because it’s in the same state as Oakland where all the radical liberals live and they’re the reason why people like Nancy pelosi and Gavin newsum continue to win (even sf tech has gone MAGA these days). Predictions markets say that ca has a 96% chance of electing ANOTHER dem governor in 20 days, but I think that’s false and that the young hot MAGA people are gonna be the reason a Republican governor wins. I have a pretty large bet on that happening and I’ll make A LOT of money WHEN it happens. Say what you want but it’s the truth. Side note, where the gop DID go wrong is with the former dumbass ugly deranged presssec who has ruined the image of the party for me, but dems have blue haired liberals or those liberal sheltered kids at liberal universities, so both parties have their problems, which is why I’m technically an independent.

LuxOfMichigan

I always say the opposite of what Michael Burry says. I am correct A LOT more often than he is. STONKS GO UP

Tallwhitedude123

Which means things can get A LOT WORSE

copperblood

No Larry, what's going to trigger a recession is when everyone finds out that A LOT of the AI buildout is being financed with people's pensions. And when that AI bubble pops, so too do people's pensions.

After-Panda1384

The usage, not the construction/development. Cost for AI will go down A LOT, so tokens will become much cheaper. Also, token maxing was BS from the beginning, it has never made sense to spend resources just to spend them. When token maxing was popular, I'm sure employees just overused it by force just to show the employer how much "work" they do. More AI usage does not equal more output if it's done just for the purpose of more usage. A truck driver isn't more productive if he drives a load from NY to FL and takes a route through CA just to ramp up miles.

Mammoth_Control_364

GDP Is great, job market is strong. FED doesn't raise rates when the economy is doing poorly btw. That's your first clue. If there was even a hint of recession the FED would be LOWERING rates, A LOT.

weglarz

You still have a LOT of money. 150k is enough to basically still have no stress or worries for years and years if you’re smart about it. You have it better than a lot of people. Once you get help for your issues, just know you’ve got a nice nest egg to start with.

Western_Coffee_5445

i made alot of money pooting CRWV, like A LOT

music_is_gud

Man I used to also play Titanfall 2 A LOT. It used to be my rebound game from battlefield for a long time lol

Syllabub_Visual

Someone said health insurance premiums are $2200 a month for a family of 4. It’s not even that bad. The MEDIAN income for a family of 4 in the us is over 150k so that’s less than 18%, and if you’re TRULY poor you’ll qualify for Medicaid or very very generous aca subsidies if you make less than 60k or so (if you make UP TO 132k a year as a family of 4 you’ll qualify for subsidies that limit premiums to 10% of income so that’s already EXTREMELY generous), so this seems like a very first world problem. It’s definitely a MIDDLE CLASS problem not a poverty problem. If someone literally can’t access any healthcare at all, I have sympathy. If it’s middle class people who are too rich for handouts then I have no sympathy. What I think is deeply fucked up is that the us doesn’t guarantee healthcare like every other major country and if a surgery costs millions then that’s deeply fucked up, but an amount that someone could make driving DoorDash a few days a week who’s already too rich to qualify for Medicaid then my sympathy is approximately zero. It’s not like they’re dying. Plus $2200 it’s not like it’s that much, DoorDash every night from very very non fancy restaurants for one person probably costs at least half of that plus every 18 year old on this sub has a tiny account with that much in it and manages to lose that every day and that’s a SMALL account. Losing 50k a day on this sub is also super common. Nobody is gonna hang up the cleats and stop trading unless it’s AT LEAST a million and even that may be a bit too low. And something else, $2200 a month a young professional working at faang or big4 or whatever could make a lot more than 10x that and they all go on trips all the time and they’re completely SELF MADE. Plus go to any coastal area I’d say a typical family is probably gonna be making 500k-1m a year and even a young couple could easily make that with rank and file pay, and many families like law firm partners and business owners are gonna make A LOT more, many millions a year. And the median 55 year old has something like a 500k net worth, so $2200 a month is nothing, and in these areas vast majority of families have at least several million and plenty have multi 8 figures and aren’t Bezos. Plus another way to think of it, 2200 years ago was not at all prehistory so you may even know your family line and if they managed to pass down $12 a day which even a beggar could make more than you’ve solved your healthcare premiums issue. Make it $1 a day and that’s not far off from a million dollars.

Syllabub_Visual

Was in Japan lately and wanna know what’s TRULY remarkable? Had someone in our group accidentally leave a wallet and an iPhone in the subway station in a place where someone could’ve easily taken it. Guess what? We returned 2 hours later and it was still there in the exact same place. As an experiment and to prove a point by posting it on tiktok I intentionally left a $50,000 watch in the same place (got rich enough from my startup that it’s fine) and returned a whole DAY later and guess what, it was still there. Now I’m not gonna say that tells you everything about a society, but it surely tells you A LOT. Recently moved to Miami which is a pretty good place all purposes considered but my experience here has been the OPPOSITE. A couple of days ago was in a McDonald’s of all places and left a my junk food on the table for like 30 seconds and then some Haitians came up and tried to eat it. Like really how low do you have to be to do that? This may be ONE thing this admin is right on and the tps cancellation is justified (it’s honestly really hard for me to feel sorry about what’s going on in their country when this is the type of stuff they do and feel that people who come here should at least make an effort to learn our social norms). According to Elon Europe USED to be that way before they opened up their borders. Anyone who tells you that it ISN’T culture is flat out deluding themselves. Either way the moral of the story is to buy calls on Japanese companies…

SharpStrategist

I worked in ml development like 8 years ago. It is a LOT more complicated than the average person thinks to make ai