NATO
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What good is the military when US is threatening the sovereignty of NATO allies? Major reason the US has the massive military is to protect trade, since trade with US is collapsing and Trump is fine with giving EU to Putin, what goals does having such a powerful military meet?
I think one thing Americans may not understand is the lasting effects of what their tariff policy is doing. Yes, countries are scrambling to come up with an agreement. Behind the scenes they are reworking their economies so they will never be dependent on the United States again. NATO members are planning to manufacture their own weapons and military grade equipment. The United States is no longer a trusted ally, something no one thought possible even a year ago. Regardless of whether other countries lift tariffs on the United States or not, at the consumer level people do not want to buy American goods. They don’t want to travel to America. They want to steer clear of the whole thing. So no, the bottom is not in. Not even close. The market may go up again before the actual crash - but crash it will. It was overdue for a major correction BEFORE this tariff policy. If you are old enough to have lived through some of our actual crashes (which Covid was not), then you would have a better idea of how bad it can actually get. Will it get better? Of course. But it’s going to get really bad before it does.
Lots of comments here on the trade war. This is a short term hit that money will solve. Far, far more significant will be the loss of control of NATO coupled with the loss of near unquestioning support from the European alliance. Geopolitics has irrevocably changed.
It makes sense when you understand he’s a russian asset acting for the benefit of russia and his boss, putin. Destroy the American economy. Impoverish the American people Isolate America from Europe Wreck NATO Weaken the dollar and destroy its status as the world’s reserve currency. Hollow the US Government from the inside, destroy its credibility Make the world hate the USA Keep us arguing amongst ourselves Obliterate the truth with rivers of propaganda, encourage, promote, and celebrate ignorance Make the Constitution and rule of law a farcical joke
there is some wag the dog event coming this month to distract - and possibly set the stage for june - where Comrade Krasnov attempts to take the USA out of NATO
It is almost like destroying NATO alliances was a goal . Only a traitor to the USA , and his friend Vladimir, would want this.
Previously: US manufacturers weapons & aircraft and sells to most of the NATO countries. Well, Europe just said "Stop buying American, and buy EU made weapons & aircrafts" Now: EU manufacturers like SAAB sell weapons that would've been sold by the US creating profit, jobs and keeps the money within the EU So, not out of thin air rather on US behalf.
Even without tariffs we have mass government indiscriminate layoffs, the sacking of Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, no more tourism to the US, mass indiscriminate deportations, and no more immigration. Oh, and we're leaving NATO. Plus, RFK Jr effect, ouch.
Probably not, fortunately. We set off thousands of nukes over the years during testing. The threat of annihilation is if NATO or Russia start retaliatory strikes against each other.
Are you purposefully taking the Trump position that Western Europe needs to pay for its own defense or do you think we have obligations and responsibilities to coordinate strategy and be a financial contributor as the de facto leaders of NATO?
> I would gladly trade global depression for stopping Putin. OK... > I live next door to Ukraine So you're not living in USA and would happily exchange US sliding into depression for Putin to be stopped? 😅 Me too The problem is US sliding into authoritarianism. I'm not sure that is a price the world can afford to pay. Then again, I don't see how these aspects are even negatively related. I'd expect Trump changing his mind on Ukraine would rather improve US relation with many other NATO members and help its economy if he allows Ukraine to purchase weapons for 50bn. It would also reduce urgency on part of other NATO members to cut dependencies on US weapons industry. And it would help with relations to the EU to help achieving a tariff deal more easily. It probably would not help reduce totalitarianism, which is a major problem, but not directly related.
The possible end of NATO, the EU, the dollar as reserve currency, Ukraine (and with it the security of Western Europe), and Taiwan, and the possible onset of a global warming tipping point, and Iran maybe getting the bomb. Other than that and bird flu, no worries. Oh, and the 175 year old history of USA wealth based on being the world's largest petroleum producer, may be coming to the end. The fracking people have been BRILLIANT at keeping the run going, but it's in decline, and the depletion curve may be shocking. Seriously, finance guys - with their charts, and confidence the market always comes back -- are more mystics than actual analysts. No one knows how it will all turn out -- but for once it's not crazy to think the post-WWII order with all its preconceptions is seriously at risk. So just hum, and feel tough? Or go to cash, and diversity like mad -- commodities, CDs in dollars, foreign currencies, foreign government treasuries. Nothing is safe, except for what you can control --- your ultimate assets (to the extent AI is not going to replace you) are your skills and health. After the Fall 1929 crash the market came 2/3rds back over the next 6 months... then started a month by month, quarter by quarter decline that was not overcome fully for 25 years with a war in the model. Finance guys warn against panic. My take? Panic is underrated.
For starters, they should have immediately put the middle defense shield back on the table. Pushed harder for a NATO membership action plan. They also shouldn’t have negotiated the nuclear deal they did with key middle eastern Russian ally Iran. You seem to think sanctions were the only tool in the toolbox for the Obama admin. It was clear to many at the time, and is absolutely clear now, that the non-response in 2014 encouraged the invasion that ultimately occurred during the Biden administration.
End of US exceptionalism, fucking over Ukraine, NATO, China and Mexica, and losing USD and treaty dominance for the next 20 years, ceding the #1 role to China = market drops 10% Not doing it as quickly = market rises 8% Seems good
As someone who really doesn’t like Trump at all, if he somehow got a deal done which had Russia leave all UA territory and pay reparations as well as the admission of Ukraine into NATO and the EU, I would say it is amazingly wonderful and Trump is perhaps the best diplomatic deal maker of all time. I’d still loathe him for a bunch of other reasons but I would give him his kudos.
Yea. Basically the full extend of the consequences haven't hit yet. Metaphorically speaking, the earthquake only just happened. Right now, it's still an ok day at the beach, but out of sight, the tsunami is heading towards the beach, and first the beachgoers will see the water receeding away from shore, and then the tsunami will hit. Trump's been super chaotic since he came back into office, and it's put a number of pieces in motion. The chaos and back-n-forth on policies, obscures things, and make it hard to make decent predictions. Also, a lot of things are currently up in the air, and where things end, can influence the end a lot. In his time in office this year, he's sown doubt about US dedication to NATO. Pivoted the US from Ukraine support to aligning with Russia. He's tariffed Mexico and Canada, the two biggest trading partners of the US. This screws up some of the most heavily intertwined supply chains in the world. Add that Trump's offended Canada and indicated that he want to annex Canada. He's indirectly threatened an allied NATO member with military invasion of Greenland. This shit has forced Europe to look at the scenario where the US is no longer a reliable ally. The is effectively endangering the US arms sales to Europe, which is about 3/4 of the US arms sales. Long term that can risk meaning less sales, meaning less money for US arms development, and longer earn-back times on developments. Overall it can reduce or eliminate US technological dominance in the arms market. Alienating Europe, reduces the US/Europe alignment on global issues, which in turn risks reducing US global influence and soft power. He's effectively shut down or heavily reduced cyberdefense against Russia. Who knows what effects that can bring long-term...? Then the tariffs. Against everyone. Even a bunch of penguins. This further annoys everyone, and represent a radical change in US trade policy, increasing uncertainty about the US. Besides being a tax on US importers, it changes trade incentives, consumer prices and disrupts supply chains. The effects of this crap hasn't hit yet, but unless Trump resets the tariffs back to what they were before he started tampering, the effect will show up in the coming 3 months or so, I think. Sure, Trump flinched and put a 90 day pause on his high tariffs against everyone, but trade deals made in two years have been made at "hyperspeed". I wonder how many trade deals the US can finalize in 90 days? Assuming the negotiators even have a clue about what the US wants. The...Was it the Japanese negotiators that reported that the US negotiators couldn't tell them what the US was demanding? And then, of course China. For now, the tariffs are reduced to what? 50-65% or something? I've lost track. Some electronics may or may not be excempted from tariffs. Medical products might or might not be getting tariffed. Again, more uncertainty. How many people has been fired in the US at this point? How many of them still get their paychecks for a while yet? The effects of those layoffs hasn't hit the economy yet. The effects of the people in the logistics chain (truckers etc.) hasn't hit yet. The likely bankrupcies of small businesses that rely on imports from China or Mexico, hasn't hit yet. If Trump walks the tariffs back sufficiently, these businesses might survive, but we don't know what will happen. China's said what they want, before they are going to negotiate anything. I wonder if Trump is willing to capitulate that hard? Every indication is saying that tourists are dropping the US as a holiday destination. I pitty the US service and tourism industries, when the primary holiday period arrives, and the tourists aren't there. Maybe something changes, and maybe some more people decide to come anyway, but I don't see that happening, as the drop in tourists is based on people being pissed at America's behaviour, and ugly stories from immigrations. And speaking of immigrations and deportations, I wonder how the US farming industry will be doing over the Summer and Autumn, if/when ICE has deported a significant part of their workers. How many Americans are going to be signing up for 11 hour work days, 7 day per week, for 20 bucks/hour, picking fruits and berries? And I wonder if the Chinese will return to buying soy from US farmers, when they've already found alternative suppliers in non-hostile countries? I doubt it. This hasn't hit for real yet, but it will within a year or two. And then there's the question of what happens with the international trade long-term, which will depend on the long-term reactions of foreign countries, and what potential new trade deals they develop with each other. Then you have the question of what will happen with the bond market in the longer term, because the US budget isn't set to be balancing in any currently predicted future, and the US just shook investor confidence. Someone dumped a lot of US bonds recently, and I doubt China is going to be first in line to buy up new US debt. You have the BRICKS initiative, which could gain more traction, if the USD looses its allure as the global reserve currency. And then you have the inflation question for the next couple of years, the question of how attractive the US market will look to investors, depending on all the other factors, not to mention the USD exchange rate, which has dropped noticably since January. That might be good for the competitiveness of US products, but it makes foreign products cost more to import. The stock market might be jumping up and down at the moment, but I seriously doubt we've seen the bottom yet, unless Trump kills his tariffs and antagonistic behaviour towards the world in short order. And I'm not concinced Trump can back that far down at this point. The tsunami is still approching.
That’s where I think you’re wrong. 🥭 would let it happen, but the United States government would intervene. And would protect Europe. NATO gets involved it’s over for the Russians.
It's impossible to take Trump seriously but his last talk with Zelenski can have a big meaning in the Russian war against Ukraine, if his views towards Russia and Ukraine are changing what will that mean? If Putin pissed him off enough and Trump wants to end the war fast does that mean full American support to Ukraine and NATO?
Can’t win the argument? Pretend we’re having a different one I guess? I never said or implied that rebuilding Europe wasn’t beneficial to the US. Yes, the United States chose to break with the historical status-quo that literally every other nation in history would have taken, and instead of annexing Europe or leaving them to be brutalized by the Soviets, we gave them their independence, rebuilt them, and protected them. Prior to WWII, the United States already controlled a third of global manufacturing output. We were obviously going to have a mutually beneficial relationship with ANY trading partner. We turned Europe into that partner - AND later took our own economy off the gold standard in order to further boost their growth. And that’s fine. No issues there. I completely agree that it turned out well for us both. However that in no way takes away from the fact that the vast majority of NATO members have not contributed even the agreed upon amount for their own defense. It also in no way changes the fact that Europe would have been prepared to defend themselves today if they had invested more in their own defense. World War II ended 75 years ago. 2006 was 19 years ago. It’s time to do your fair share.
Educate yourself. Europe has financed more of the war than the USA has. NATO exists as a joint effort to stabilize the world, which is of benefit to all. The USA is generally safe due to its geographic location. The USA economic is strong due to benefiting from cheap labour worldwide and the agreed use of the dollar as the reserve currency
Isn't it funny how Russia is Europe's neighbor, yet always the US that has to come in and negotiate? The United States shouldn't even have to pay anything to NATO at this point for how useless the European countries are.
First 100 days so far…. Went indoors on Inauguration Day with billionaires/ no hand on bible Pardons all violent Jan 6th criminals Rise in n@zi salutes and hate crimes 2 Israeli ceasefires collapse more civilian casualties Israel attacks Syria/ escalation with Turkey Ukrainian ceasefire collapse/fail to launch Signal gate 1.0 and 2.0 / whiskey leaks unsecured lines War with houthis Lets houthis shoot down at least 7 reaper drones Deployment of more troops to the Middle East Threatens invasion of partner countries/alienates allies (Greenland, Canada, Mexico and Panama) Threatens war with Iran Threatens NATO alliance Does Russia’s bidding against Ukraine/propaganda, pulling aid, intel, capitulation to land demands Ukraine Oval Office meeting White House Dress Code US doesn’t vote against Russia at UN & invites them back into G7 No mineral deal “Vladimir STOP” Don jr staged Greenland visit Mark Fogal released for Russian cyber criminal Dismantles foreign cyber crime defense Multiple aviation accidents/blames DEI Fires FAA and nuclear staff DEI historical removals like Jackie Robinson/ Enola gay Releases billions of gallons of water in CA to wrong place after fires Addresses none of deadly tornadoes in central plains (busy winning his own golf tournament) Liberation Day - Markets down 10-20% / worse month since depression/market manipulation Blows up his own trade deals and erases trillions from the market with dollar down 9% Giant tariff tax / global trade war / *no tariffs on Russia Backs down from trade war and lies about deal talks including with china Crypto president / Trump and Melania coin scams Pardons Silk Road creator, crypto crooks, and other felon con artists US boycotts/travel warnings/prolonged detainment Gutted USAID wasting billions in aid and costing lives Cuts at IRS and leaking private citizen information Cuts funding to public media like npr + pbs Took over Kennedy center Hangs mug shot in White House Let’s elons kid put a booger on resolute desk Doge chainsaw to fed agencies with no DOD cuts and an actual increase in federal spending Mass “DEI firings” including veterans / Mass rehiring Stops farmer loans and programs like farm to school Invites dictators to the White House 100 billion Saudi munitions deal Loss of 1st 4th, and 5th amendment rights/deporting for opinions/ice arrests in private residences/right to jury Enacts wartime Alien Enemy’s Act/deports non gang members Deporting homegrown criminals Deports 2 year old US citizen to Honduras El salvadorian detention camps/ Guantanamo bay failure Threatens loss of 14th amendment - birthright citizenship/due process Threatens 16th amendment rights- congress setting tax rules (sued by 12 states so far over tariffs) Threatens 19th amendment - save act/women’s voting rights Threatens 22nd amendment - 3rd term 2028 hats Weaponizes justice department/ Tesla vandalism = terrorism/ Jan 6 revenge / Luigi death penalty FBI arrests Judge for obstructing ice Tries to dismantle civil rights act Pulls out of World Health Organization and Paris climate agreement again Measles + bird flu Wasted 30k real eggs on Easter F-47 jet and proposals for his image on currency, Rushmore, airport naming Canceled Ebola prevention funding Eliminates FDA regulations on food No more NIH brain cancer research while touting a kid with brain cancer at his speech to congress Cuts cancer funds for firefighters Deletes living people off of social security Released 20B gallons of strategic oil reserves Opens federal forests for logging and opens protected ocean space for fishing/drilling/mining White House = Tesla dealership Golf trips EVERY weekend and some weekdays Wastes millions attending Super Bowl, NASCAR, and ufc events Cuddles up to Bibi and supplies Israel offensive weapons on hold by Biden admin Trump Gaza /wants to create golden idols of himself Attacks and sues private, state, and federal entities over constitutional rights/extortion (colleges, lawfirms, ActBlue) Illegally kicks AP out of press pool for maga friendly media and Russian assets like Tim pool Attacks judicial branch Attacks on trans community including troops Tries to cancel lgbtq suicide hotline Attacks the independence of the fed Pro Child labor legislation Gets rid of price caps on medicine Tries to cancel chip act Tries to stop collective bargaining for federal employees Plans to reverse student loan forgiveness Tries to reverse overdraft fee protection Reverses climate legislation/guts epa Extends tik tok sale deadline Violation of Separation of powers /criminal contempt “Mass” Illegal Deportations Troops on the border Masked secret police kidnapping people Revoked protected status for hundreds of thousands of refugees Tries to revoke foreign student visas Weighs on revoking legal status of Ukrainians who fled to US Starlink running White House WiFi Mayor Eric Adam’s quid pro quo/resignations Illegal firing of inspector generals Mass protests in all 50 states Didn’t know about dead soldiers in Lithuania/golfed with Saudis instead of being there for dignified transfer of bodies Released jfk files Didn’t release Epstein Files Didn’t release drone/ufo files Gave Mel Gibson his guns back Lara Loomer employment advice Tate brothers US tour Florida school shooting/no plans on gun or mental health legislation No “no tax on tips/overtime” 130+ executive orders English the official language White House faith office Elon tries to buy Wisconsin Supreme Court - fails Elon bails out/cries Brain worm autism theory/ persons list Fruit loops made with real colors Gaetz loses AG nomination and congressional seat to avoid scandal JD Vance fumbles trophy, calls Chinese peasants, becomes Memesation from plague of bad Pope optics/thank you gate 2 nuclear powers India vs Pakistan closer to war SOH gets robbed and does glam shoot with foreign prisoners DNI lies under oath A1 sauce secretary of education/dismantles department and school funding Trump GOLD card for Russian oligarchs Announces military parade for his birthday Lowest presidential approval rating in first 100 days Mentions Biden 580+ times “Got rid” of PaPer straWs Made shower heads Great Again 6’3 244lbs and aced cognitive test Baby bonus/mommy medals 100ft flag pole at the White House Pentagon make-up studio GulF of AmEriCA — Link to articles —
It’s hilarious how you keep parroting this tired fantasy that the U.S. “footed the bill” for Europe’s defense out of pure charity, as if America just woke up one day and decided to bankroll a continent for fun. Reality check: the U.S. funded European defenses because it served U.S. interests. America didn’t build bases across Europe out of generosity it did it to fight the Cold War on someone else’s turf, to box in the Soviet Union, and to secure massive political, economic, and military dominance over Western Europe. NATO wasn’t a handout; it was the ultimate investment in American power projection, trade security, and ideological supremacy. Europe rebuilt itself while hosting U.S. forces that gave Washington global reach at a discount. Acting like Europe should grovel for that strategic arrangement just shows how little you understand the Cold War, alliances, or even basic geopolitics. The U.S. got exactly what it wanted: a stable Europe aligned to American interests and it made trillions off it over decades. Stop whining like it was some selfless act; it was ruthless, brilliant statecraft something your revisionist, half baked rants completely miss.
A tired myth? You mean the truth? A truth which you even illustrate in your third sentence.: Even with a war raging inside Europe, you have to include the language “or closing in” just to get close to two thirds meeting a paltry 2% of their GDP. So all of the European Union plus its “European Allies” have matched the contribution of ONE non-European country. A country that has footed the bill for the majority of European defense for half a century. Again, if Europe had invested in its own defense as it should have, they would have been prepared. But Canada has increased military spending by 20%! They contributed just over 1% of their GDP to their own defense in 2022. I’m sure NATO will make excellent use of the new stapler and pack of post-it notes Canada has stretched for this year.
The tired myth that NATO allies have “mooched” off the U.S. since WWII is pure fiction, parroted by people who don’t understand history, alliances, or even basic numbers. NATO’s 2% spending target didn’t exist until 2006. today, over two-thirds of the alliance is hitting or closing in on that goal, with Europe and Canada ramping up defense spending by nearly 20% in just the last year. The idea that the U.S. foots the bill alone is equally laughable: European allies and the EU have matched the U.S. matched dollar for dollar in Ukraine aid, committing over $150 billion + taking in Ukraines’ and providing vast quantities of tanks, artillery, and critical training. Historically, NATO allies bled alongside Americans in WWII, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, and countless missions and they host the very U.S. bases that project American power across the globe. NATO isn’t charity it’s a force multiplier for U.S. influence, and pretending Europe has been dead weight is not just wrong, it’s embarrassingly ignorant. If you’re still clinging to that fantasy in 2025, you’re either willfully uninformed or just desperate for a cheap scapegoat.
If Putin takes Ukraine he will start next on the baltics and Poland. Same playbook as before, first he'll try to infiltrate the government and get them aligned with Russia. Then put his puppet in place and then withdraw from NATO. The former slave states of Russia aren't going back. If push comes to shove they will form a coalition of the willing and defend Ukraine.
Irrational hopefulness. All Trump uncertainty. His nuts attitude towards tarrifs and unreliability towards Ukraine, and all of the EU/NATO/other allies, has created uncertainty about the US. That's not changing until after Trump leaves office. Why would anyone build a factory here with crazy in office?
The fact he removed the deadline for the ceasefire and continues to slam Zelensky for Crimea and NATO indicates that they aren’t that close to a deal.
I just think asking other nations to contribute to defense or asking China to play by the rules of trade hasn't worked when pursued via traditional means. Though the markets may not like it, you could probably admit it's a good thing to be less reliant on China (which has been at the top of the USA threat assessment for a while now) and to encourage EU and Asian partners to spend more on their military. I think people assume just asking works, but we've had guidelines for how much NATO allies should spend and we've obviously had WTO regulations for how to conduct yourself if you want to participate in global trade. Both of those issues have been walked on even despite China's continued threats to Taiwan and Russia's ACTUAL invasion of Ukraine. It's a shame we have to resort to madman theory tactics to get the EU to take anything seriously. Like, news flash, Russia is on your doorstep!
If there isn’t a NATO+Five Eyes free trade zone announced this pump is absurd.
Zelensky is being bullied by Trump into giving up his natural resources to the US, or giving up his country to the Russians. And even if he gives everything to the US, they're not allowed to join NATO, and no guarantees that the Russians won't come back next year. No one was ever close to a deal. Everyone knows that, also the the Ukrainian people, except maybe the US Fox news viewers,
It's exactly why china has pulled a 180 on relations with Japan and South Korea. They see the USA getting more and more hostile towards the global community and understand china can use this to maneuver around into becoming the head of a new regional, or even global "NATO" like alliance where China is the de facto leader. just like the USA used to be with NATO.
This is a really good discussion, thank you “If they are selling goods and services to the US at a profit, isn't there wealth coming from the US?” I think they are both selling goods at below market prices, and lending a big chunk of the money they get from selling goods back to the US at below market interest rates. Both are advantageous to the US - in the short term! In the long term, it really depends on how effectively the US uses the goods it gets. If it’s mostly investment, the US could grow its economy faster than it accumulates financial obligations. If it’s mostly consumption… eventually it becomes unsustainable Remember this entire system was set up by the US - first after WW2 (Bretton Woods), then updated at various points (Plaza Accord, NAFTA, WTO etc). Presumably it was set up for the benefit of the US, although not necessarily with perfect foresight “When you look at the US' biggest trading partners since WW2, did their economies not grow enormously?” They did, but that’s partly because the US was explicitly trying to raise military allies during the Cold War (NATO, Marshall Plan). The big offshoring of industry and growth of non-allied trading partners mostly happened in the 1990s and 2000s. Tbh I’m not sure there was any strategic reason for that, mainly greed and stupidity- CEOs figured they can juice profits by offshoring and other countries were of course all for it “Ok, but if they don't want to sell excess production to the US, what do they want instead?” Consume it themselves and instantly double their standard of living? Switch from producing consumer goods to capital goods and double their real growth rate? Trade with each other? I don’t think there’s any shortage of good options
I assure you i am fully neutral, I have to be by profession. Trump is following a fascist playbook, installing sympathisers, aggressively dismantling departments that threaten him, carrying out vendetas, ignoring the justice department, firing those that oppose him, openly saying he will run another term. Accusing his opponents of cheating when they are not, generally eroding public trust in institutions so people will blindly follow his orders instead. That wasn’t sarcasm, it was genuine concern. From what you are saying, i’m guessing you are young and a little misguided. It has happened before, i never thought id see it happen in the US. Everything he does borders on criminal, the signal fiasco, the market manipulation. There is a convicted felon as the wheel and people like you are ignoring the highly obvious track record of criminality and claiming to be ‘neutral’. He is dismantling NATO, the way the US maintains global power and costing up to literal criminal dictators. He is crashing the dollar ON PURPOSE, he is enriching himself and his circle at the expense of the US and the world. He has single handedly set america back decades. His first term did immeasurable damage, his second term might end the current world order that America benefits from. Him and his cronies never want to be out of power again, and they will attempt to hold onto it with everything they have.
\> ou will sacrifice upside to limit the downside. And that's ok with me personally Yep. I don't feel old, but measured by life-expectancy charts, I don't have the years to whistle away thinking "who cares, the market always comes back!" And, of course -- not to get political -- but we are living in unprecedented times. England thinking about re-joining the EU, the possible end of NATO, gold at record highs, and with fracking in decline the possible end of USA being world leader in petroleum production (losing its 175 year old title), challenges to the dollar as the reserve currency.... And so on. Maybe I'm talking crazy talk (I won't argue about that); but at a minimum the post WWII rules may be dead. There are a lot of ways to lose (stocks, gold, bonds, currency, commodities, real estate -- nothing is guaranteed). So it comes down a gamble. Wheel is spinning; drop chips on more than one number. You know the quote attributed to Napoleon: "I'd rather have lucky generals than good ones,"
\>lol…EU are stuck with US because they need US to fund NATO for their defense The EU has like twenty times the GDP of Russia. Trust me, they really DONT need the US to fund NATO for their defense. They can just fund their own defense. The EU right now would already crush russia in a head to head.
You think that if U.S. withdraws from NATO that their economies would collapse? lol. Go away and stop doing drugs.
It’s very good. Between EU, NATO, ICE, all the stuff Elon is 100% going to be using them for, and general sentiment I have a LOT of faith in positive price action. I honestly might buy a naked call just because, but I know IV is going to squeeze the pink soy mush out of my hard earned tendies for that.
They won’t divorce because they need US to fund NATO. If US forces all EU countries to bump their NATO budget to 5% of their GDP their economy will be in recession and if Trump withdraws from NATO then their economies will collapse
Everyone is mesmerized by the tariff game. We've got massive, indiscriminate government layoffs for no reason, they're threatening Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, mass deportations, a precipitous drop in tourism to the US, destruction of the dollar and withdrawal from NATO. I mean, stocks climb a wall of fear, but this is beyond the pale. SPY 560 to 570 maybe. Then, I think, SPY 470 and eventually 300.
\> Don't overthink it, it you want to hedge then get a mix of FXE, FXF, BWZ, BWX, IGOV and let run until a new administration is in sight Makes sense! Thanks for the list. I don't know what the right moves are, but the traditional "comfort language" (the market always comes back, etc.) seems very out-of-date for a new world which may be post-NATO, post-Ukraine, post-Taiwan, post-Dollar as the reserve currency, or at least the chance of such changes. My joke is the descriptor "paranoid" seems out of date -- there must always be a line that distinguishes rational and irrational fears. But I am reminded of this quote: "There is a thin line between genius and insanity. I have erased that line." (attributed to Oscar Levant, and others).
And that's more a function of our military protection than our import tariffs. The USD is trading at roughly the same levels relative to the Euro that it has for the last 10 years (minus a few short term spikes in late 2022 and late 2024). [https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y) As long as we are using our military to protect NATO, Japan, Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. then I doubt the faith changes. Now if Trump quits NATO or leaves our allies hanging militarily then that will be a much bigger problem. But as of now they all rely on us and don't really have any alternatives with Russia and China on their doorsteps.
You guys are still confused. PUTIN groomed this asswipe to create,exactly the chaos he is doing. Thi k a out who benefits? Russia. We tried to crush them after they invaded Ukraine. This is,payback and Putin gets top secret info, a weakened NATO, Think about it. And trump is allowed to zteal abd grift our tax dollars every say. Where is,that deep state when we need them?
This arrogance comes from the American exceptionalism that we somewhat had and squandered. When you say the US is the “greatest country in the world” enough times you think when you say jump everyone’s going to say “how high?” That’s not how jt works. We’ve made most of the whole world fucking hate us. We don’t even have NATO to support us now. So China is going to say fuck you sideways and we’re going to have to fold.
China is actively engaging with other trade partners. Xi just met with the president of Azerbaijan, and before that, he was on a tour across Asia. Do you really think China is going to waste time? FYI Azerbaijan is or was a key NATO ally in that region.
Not really. Im even unsure which of both you think is more reliable. Im gonna guess the difference you see is caused by our own media brainwashing you about the evil russian empire and never having exposed you to the entire picture of what lead to the Ukraine war. That and the shockingly effective pro war, pro NATO propaganda machine. Most of what I read coming out of Moscow is surprisingly nuanced, objective and factual. Biased of course, but not nearly as ludicrous as whats coming out of Kiev or Brussels which is repeated verbatim in US media.
>I mean, the US threatened military action and intervention against Canada, the EU and NATO while cozying up with Russia, Europe's bigger pressing enemy, China isn't trustworthy, but at this point is far more trustworthy as a government with people who aren't bat shit insane Just... no. You fall for sensationalist clickbait headlines often? >Yeah, the flood of chinese products will be a point of contention, the good thing is that both the EU and China have governments and institutions that at the moment seem able to hold real negotiations and diplomatic talks instead of flip flopping every three days. Good luck, seemed to have worked quite well for the US before Trump was even in the picture.(it didnt). >As for historical adversaries? Don't forget that the UK and France had a far longer history of hating each other than the European continent ever did with China. I'm talking about China and their region not Europe. >And before the Ukraine war a lot of European countries were willing to make deals with Russia after the Soviet collapse, Yep Ukraine was the pipeline of Russia to Europe and normalization and diplomacy. EU wanted to cut Russia off and was hostile, kept extending NATO eastward after promises not to. The US can't be trusted regardless of who's in office. Thats how geopolitics work. You can't trust the US, Russia, China, not even the EU.
I mean, the US threatened military action and intervention against Canada, the EU and NATO while cozying up with Russia, Europe's bigger pressing enemy, China isn't trustworthy, but at this point is far more trustworthy as a government with people who aren't bat shit insane Yeah, the flood of chinese products will be a point of contention, the good thing is that both the EU and China have governments and institutions that at the moment seem able to hold real negotiations and diplomatic talks instead of flip flopping every three days. As for historical adversaries? Don't forget that the UK and France had a far longer history of hating each other than the European continent ever did with China. And before the Ukraine war a lot of European countries were willing to make deals with Russia after the Soviet collapse, historical adversaries don't win over the realities of Realpolitik and geopolitics, if you choose grudges over the realities you become North Korea or Iran
It's less a question of how many countries we backstabber will take trade to China, and more a question of how soon they will. They all already trade with China. The EU and China are each other's largest trading partners already, won't take much effort to increase that. It's a question of time. NATO members as well as EU members were pulling out of the US Treasury bond market pretty significantly and are reinvesting that money into their own military (the bonds were investments in US military protection primarily, so this tracks), and the materials for their MICs have to come from somewhere. Demand meets supplier. As far as the US, we can survive without Chinese finished goods. What we can't survive without is Chinese steel and aluminum (as well as Canadian, Australian, and EU sources of these). The primary trade commodities we get from China are electronics though, which we *CAN* supply ourselves...but at prices higher than Apple announced for the next iPhone so effectively out of reach for like 75% of the country. THEN, we have to also factor in the aging laborforce and how much more labor will be needed to accommodate for these shortfalls. Literally welcome to indentured servitude in the modern age. AI and robotics isn't available in significant enough quantity or in sufficient application to compensate in the tineframe needed, and the push to get women back barefoot and pregnant means the remaining laborforce is halved, and children are not laborforce-viable fast enough (I feel disgusting even saying it like this, but that's the mentality at issue). Means the 2 full-time jobs needed at average pay rate to meet a sustenance level income have to be worked by 1 person, and the cost increases to live will render that more like 3.5...literally indentured servitude, existing in perpetual insufficiency.
Who is stopping NATO from just taking over Russia. they lost a lot of troops already. If NATO just comes together UK and Turkeys army should be strong enough add France and Russia doesnt stand a chance. And how would this effect my corn calls?
Nah go on, what's your solution to this conflict. All you do is bitch about xyz decision yet refuse to elaborate on how you would solve it. All bark no bite, woof woof. Then you go to hyperbole like Russia will continue taking land past Ukraine as defence. Russia won't take past Ukraine, china is your bigger enemy in reality anyways. If NATO can keep a proxy war going in a statement while imposing restriction their scraps they donate that's already planned for decommissioning then it can easily defend it's borders and Russia isn't stupid enough to reach past Ukraine, there's no strategic reason to. Ukraine has the resources they need like agricultural land and minerals. Logistics wins wars, Desert Storm is the perfect example. Russia won't touch the actual NATO.
We created NATO to further our own goals. It wasn’t charity. We did it to keep our country safe.
I disagree. From Miran's paper. >Where these arguments run into trouble is when other nations begin retaliating against U.S. tariffs, as China did modestly in 2018-2019. If the U.S. raises a tariff and other nations passively accept it, then it can be welfare-enhancing overall as in the optimal tariff literature. However, retaliatory tariffs impose additional costs on America and run the risk of tit-for-tat escalations in excess of optimal tariffs that lead to a breakdown in global trade. Retaliatory tariffs by other nations can nullify the welfare benefits of tariffs for the U.S. Thus, preventing retaliation will be of great importance. Because the United States is a large source of consumer 14 See, for instance, Broda, Limao and Weinstein (2008). 15 See https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/donald-trump-election-trade-tariffs-aed6c281 25 A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System demand for the world with robust capital markets, it can withstand tit-for-tat escalation more easily than other nations and is likelier to win a game of chicken. Recall that China’s economy is dependent on capital controls keeping savings invested in increasingly inefficient allocations of capital to unproductive assets like empty apartment buildings. If tit-for-tat escalation causes increasing pressure on those capital controls for money to leave China, their economy can experience far more severe volatility than the American economy. This natural advantage limits the ability of China to respond to tariff increases. With respect to other nations, if the Trump Administration merges national security and trade policy explicitly, it may provide some incentives against retaliation. For instance, it could declare that it views joint defense obligations and the American defense umbrella as less binding or reliable for nations which implement retaliatory tariffs. Additionally, it’s not clear whether one should view the failure of this deterrent as a bad outcome. Suppose the U.S. levels tariffs on NATO partners and threatens to weaken its NATO joint defense obligations if it is hit with retaliatory tariffs. If Europe retaliates but dramatically boosts its own defense expenditures and capabilities, alleviating the United States’ burden for global security and threatening less overextension of our capabilities, it will have accom- plished several goals. Europe taking a greater role in its own defense allows the U.S. to concentrate more on China, which is a far greater economic and national security threat to America than Russia is, while generating revenue. What is clear, however, is that given all these considerations, the Trump team will view tariffs as an effective means of raising taxes on foreigners to pay for retaining low tax rates on Americans. The reduced personal income tax rates introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2026 and extending them in full without raising deficits may require raising almost $5 trillion of new revenue or debt over a ten-year budget window. Doubtless, tariffs are a big part of the answer for extending the tax cuts; revenue must come from somewhere.
What about the fact that the rest of NATO has basically mooched off the US since WW2 by not fulfilling their already minuscule defense spending requirements? They would not be in the position they’re in right now, relying on US taxpayers to foot the bill and provide equipment to Ukraine. They could have done it themselves.
this thread- and the fact that all your questions are valid and everything is indeed up in the air- point to a valuable milestone having been reached: Trump (or rather the people who installed him for this purpose) succeeded in causing chaos and uncertainty, which means the first phase of his/their plan has been accomplished. All the algorithmic market makers and talking heads and think tanks and immense planning apparatuses (not just in the US but also every other country, friend or foe) have been rendered more or less impotent by the simple fact of unpredictable chaos- everything can change in any direction with a single social media post. On the one hand, yes Trump and Elon are buffoons, but it's also a clever (and very meta, very postmodern) military strategy. An updated version of "The whole secret lies in *confusing* the *enemy*, so that he cannot fathom our real intent." To me it looks like there might be a faction in the US who are attempting to provoke WW3 (the Brzezinski/Kissinger/NATO/Neoliberal faction) and another faction who are trying to remove the US + USD$ from hegemony and shift to a multipolar system without uncontrolled nuclear conflict. I suspect the next phase, beginning within the next 100 days, will be somewhat more dramatic and possibly could include open kinetic conflict and/or attacks on infrastructure.
Right, it’s a business. And you don’t want a shady business partner who may pull the rug on you and screw you over, as trump has been doing… so they’ll look elsewhere rather than deal with the uncertainty, increased cost, and lack of other tangible benefits that go along with being a good trade partner of the US (trump has already shown he has no loyalty whatsoever and has floated the idea of leaving NATO, the UN, and USMCA, among other agreements).
The average westerner still really doesn't understand how powerful China's industrial base has become. They still have that 1985 "low skill producer" mental model which hasn't been true for [years](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9f5SQQKr5o). * China's peacetime drone production equals the entire DoD stash multiple times over—on a [weekly](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GogAngNXUAAMg6b?format=png&name=large) basis. * China has [230:1](https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/12/08/dwarfed-by-china-in-shipbuilding-us-looks-to-build-its-defense-base/) shipbuilding dominance. All their merchant marine ships are built to military/dual use specs as part of a military-civil fusion strategy. That's why you see their "fishing vessels" constantly playing bumper cars with Filipino coast guard ships. * The EU can barely keep up with North Korean munitions. If China surged 1/100th the effort NATO puts into Ukraine the Russians would already be on the Polish border. Then you have hypersonics, Chengdu J-36, the whole 5G stack, coming 6G stack, [3rd gen nuclear](https://www.sustainability-times.com/low-carbon-energy/the-us-on-high-alert-chinas-largest-nuclear-reactor-passes-final-test-as-global-power-tensions-explode/), superior battery tech, US funded gain of function research, Deepseek AI, fully automated dark factories, massive cyber capabilities, belt & road initiatives, solar, steel, cement, EV and strategic mineral dominance, etc—all in rapid succession and accelerating scale. Any one of these would've been a Sputnik moment in the USSR days. The tech is just too complicated for most people to grasp these days. This might be the first cold war lost before one side realized it was in one.
The average westerner still really doesn't understand how powerful China's industrial base has become. They still have that 1985 "low skill producer" mental model which hasn't been true for [years](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9f5SQQKr5o). * China's peacetime drone production equals the entire DoD stash multiple times over—on a [weekly](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GogAngNXUAAMg6b?format=png&name=large) basis. * China has [230:1](https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/12/08/dwarfed-by-china-in-shipbuilding-us-looks-to-build-its-defense-base/) shipbuilding dominance. All their merchant marine ships are built to military/dual use specs as part of a military-civil fusion strategy. That's why you see their "fishing vessels" constantly playing bumper cars with Filipino coast guard ships. * The EU can barely keep up with North Korean munitions. If China surged 1/100th the effort NATO puts into Ukraine the Russians would already be on the Polish border. Then you have hypersonics, Chengdu J-36, the whole 5G stack, coming 6G stack, [3rd gen nuclear](https://www.sustainability-times.com/low-carbon-energy/the-us-on-high-alert-chinas-largest-nuclear-reactor-passes-final-test-as-global-power-tensions-explode/), superior battery tech, US funded gain of function research, Deepseek AI, fully automated dark factories, massive cyber capabilities, belt & road initiatives, solar, steel, cement, EV and strategic mineral dominance, etc—all in rapid succession and accelerating scale. Any one of these would've been a Sputnik moment in the USSR days. The tech is just too complicated for most people to grasp these days. This might be the first cold war lost before one side realized it was in one. The west has a diminishing number of aces left like nuclear dominance which China knows they'll never use. It's not Russia's cratering economic/demographic/industrial power but Putin's "crazy-enough-to-use-em" reputation that makes them *the* global geopolitical pivot point. They either become a Chinese proxy or the west's [anger translator](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkAK9QRe4ds).
This man is a whole Russian press release in a suit. First off, Crimea wasn’t “lost” under Obama. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and annexed it illegally. That ain’t some “oops we dropped it” situation it was an armed takeover condemned by the U.N., NATO, and damn near the entire free world. Ain’t no “handover.” That’s like saying your house got “gifted” after someone broke in, squatted, and dared you to say something. Second, Trump crying about Zelenskyy “boasting” that Ukraine won’t recognize Russia’s occupation? That’s called defending your land, dummy. That’s literally his job. What do you want him to say? “Thanks Putin, enjoy the beaches”? And let’s talk about this “why didn’t they fight 11 years ago” nonsense they did. Ukraine didn’t have the military strength then, but they’ve been fighting since. Thousands of lives lost, and this dude’s asking why they didn’t pull a Red Dawn moment back in 2014 like he knows military logistics. Also, miss me with that “the area houses Russian subs” as if that makes the theft valid. By that logic, if Russia parks a tank in your front yard, they own your house now? This clown really said Ukraine has two options: surrender or die slow. Meanwhile, Trump was impeached the first time for trying to extort Zelenskyy into digging up dirt on Biden in exchange for weapons to defend Ukraine from — wait for it — Russia. This ain’t neutrality. This is treason with a combover. Only a Russian asset would speak like this.
eh, I had a look as ASML. Literally has a monopoly on EUV. Basically the most high value strategic asset to NATO. Thanks dude
coordination to destroy the world order is 1000x easier to rebuild a new order. thats what its about, they want to destroy WHO, WTO, bank, UN, NATO, WWF, all of that.
Well its really your choice. It's true you could start a war with Canada and you would likely overwhelm us with your military power, occupying us. It might not be easy as you think, as the aggressors in these conflicts always underestimate the defenders. Putin thought the Ukraine War would be over in a week. There would be an insurgency to deal with no doubt, from English speaking motivated individuals indistinguishable from the regular American population, so there would no domestic peace for Americans ever again. America could no longer make any credible claims to "defenders of freedom" or the "leaders of the free world" they would be just another fascist power occupying its neighbours as bad as Russia or China. Maybe even worse. The insurgency would likely mean suspension of the Constitution so say good bye to your personal freedoms. There would be a percentage of Americans would sympathize with us as well as fuel to the insurgency, further splitting and dividing your already divided country. I will also remind you Trumpers and this one is easy to forget. Canadians came to protection of America when you guys invoked Article 5 of NATO after 911. You guys were the ones that needed protecting, not us.
>Trump folded before the negotiations even began This is Trump's MO. Look at his proposed ceasefire "deal" in Ukraine. It gives Russia everything they want (recognition of Crimea, allowing Russia to keep all land currently occupied, removal of all sanctions on Russia since 2014, no NATO membership for Ukraine ever, and no security guarantees for Ukraine at all) in exchange for Russia just to *come to the table for the start of peace talks.* Its a complete surrender. Also worth noting that Trump did this in Afghanistan too, giving the Taliban everything they wanted in exchange for nothing. Shart of the deal baby.
By Trump being the one rolling back, there is probably some hope even the republicans in their current state aren't stupid enough to try this again, so for that part, it might work. But there is no indication Trump will re-think his position on Russia/Ukraine, and for the EU, Ukraine is of strategic importance. There also was no clarification to redraw the threats against Canada and Greenland. Both of this makes USA a security threat for all NATO allies, and double so for EU member states. So, while I think people will heappily start trading again with USA, I absolutely hope the dependency on US cloud services, US IT, and, especially, US military products will be seen as an urgent security problem. Which would hurt the US economy.
You may not care but just for my own pedantic sake; you can refer to the United States Forces Korea as a human shield but technically it’s known as a “Tripwire Force”. The idea being; yes the USFK probably takes huge casualties… until 3 carrier strike groups turn up. NATO has a similar force built up in Eastern Europe/Baltic States in the form of 4 “enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups” (eFPs) A relatively small, concentrated force, is initially a deterrent against attacks, but more crucially; is deployed in such a way as to cause maximum slowdown of any unexpected advance, to give more leeway for allies to respond and give time to deploy an overwhelming force to counter. It is expected (although entirely unknown us) that the command structure of these forces have instructions to fight until the destruction of their command (to the last man), and then to subsequently embed in guerrilla and partisan activity alongside the local populace to pave the way for liberation forces in the future. Forgot I was on WSB, wrote out a WorldPolitics response lol
It's both I think. Trump is a crook and an idiot who believes the last person who spoke to him. Even more than cash, he wants people kissing his ass. Putin, who speaks to Trump often does want to destroy the US and NATO, others with access to him all have their own agendas.
>Yes, and South Korea also depends on the US for national defense. At this point the US defense agreements can be considered null. Just look at the shitshow they pulled off with NATO and Ukraine.
What might have given us some leverage over China in a situation like this, is a network of alliances and free trade agreements with other countries. As well as strong trust in the dollar, our institutions and our T-Bills. We could have derived some serious soft power from those things, and used it to convince allies to isolate China on the world stage, while bolstering our own economy against the effects of a trade war with them. The reason why the US started NATO and forged relationships with half the planet during the Cold War, is so that we could use that soft power to isolate the Soviet Union, disincentivize countries from allying with them, and weaken their economy - all while strengthening ours. The Cold War would have played out very differently if the US had decided to take on the Soviet Union while discarding our primary advantage over them.
They truly believe all previous people were stupid and they are the smartest people ever. So of course they believe they can negotiate 76 simultaneous trade deals in 90 days when any other trade deal took years to complete. Look at the Ukraine war. They truly believed they could end it in 48 hours. Now they realize the only way to end it quickly is to surrender - block arms to Ukraine, refuse NATO membership, and cede Crimea plus other territory to Russia. So the “deal” will be a 6 month pause on tariffs with China while the two sides “negotiate”, so he can go back to hunting transgender swimmers.
This. People often wonder why NATO nations' condemnation of terrible things seem so watered down and infrequent. It shouldn't be that hard to call ethnic cleansing by its name and yet no country does. That quite often, statements will come out saying "why did they say anything at all if they were saying nothing about the matter?" And what people don't understand is that those nothing messages are very precisely calculated... because *not* making a statement is politically as important as saying anything at all. That how the world does politics at the global level involves practices going back hundreds or even thousands of years. People really think that a country's leader can tell the world to kiss its ass. Countries have gone to war over less. And Orange Julius Caesar is single-handedly destroying hundreds of years' worth of global relationships.
The Democrats are terrifying quiet overall for the mess he is in, which sure don’t interrupt an enemy while he hurts himself, but they aren’t that smart. They seem scared. I think the world doesn’t just see the debt, nor the economy, nor: the record high resumes being sent to companies abroad, the ridiculous asks for tariff reliefs, the behind the scenes talks on NATO/Greenland/Canada, they see the courts being somewhat-very defied, they see more than us in many ways. And they buy the bonds and keep the lights on. And we saw that even Trump knows that last part when he reversed course on tariffs when the ten yield spiked. But then Trump answered a question on April 11 on Air Force 1 to both the dollar and the bond market, and in responded to the problem with the bond market he said he “solved it very very quickly,” almost bragging he did it too quickly. And the while we might not be able to see how much demand for the debt we keep ringing up and if we are charging ourselves at this point, but the Central banks and the congress probably do. Keeping things buoyant longs enough till maybe he can right the ship (people start mass buying our debt again and we don’t devalue the dollar through tariffs/inflation), or until they can at least ready their life vessel.
2018 was much dampened by cooler heads and real economists around Trump. The US did not float the idea of invading allied countries while also undermining NATO and starting a massive global trade war with everyone. I agree with you that this CAN blow over and recover quickly, but only if the checks and balances that still remain hold and check Trump's power. That would be proof that the American system is actually robust and strong enough to withstand the whims of a single administration, that would be really good news. But if that is not the case, and if the administration can continue on the current path, it will definitely signal to the whole world that you simply don't know what you'll get with the US because elections might put anyone in power and they can do anything without regard for stability of past arrangements. That is not a good climate for financial collaboration.
The US, for a long while, has been a guarantee of NATO security. Now that our clowns are fucking up these alliances, they can no longer trust the US, and will continue to rebuild their militaries.
Not sure what exactly you have to disagree with based on what I said, it's objectively true. Europe will not let themselves be so dependent on the US ever again, not when Trump has threatened the sovereignty and demanded territorial concessions from several NATO allies, made clear he likely wouldnt abide by Article 5 if our European allies were attacked, and has repeatedly sided with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, all while excluding our European allies from the discussions that will shape European defense for generations.
The first Trump term, much like the first plane that hit the world trade center, could have been dismissed as a tragic accident, and the world would have been sympathetic and forgiven you. When the second plane hit in November of 2024, it proved that 70 million Americans were dangerously stupid. I don't think "tarnished" is an adequate word for America's reputation at this point. You are now seen as an adversary by nearly all of your closest allies of the last 80 years, both because of Trump's threats to annex several of its NATO partners and because of Trump's absolute betrayal of Ukraine. People living today will never take America at its word again.
I doubt it. Russia doesn't have any interest in expanding into Europe. If NATO diminishes, it's even less likely. Europe might want to reinvigorate meddling in Africa, but that kind of spending is peanuts compared to conventional war with a major power.
in some aspects yes, risk of conflict would in theory rasie defense spending. but that's not the whole picture. sales to (whatever is left of) NATO allies could drop as they diversify from the US supply. Also, there have been hints at budget cuts for DoD. So if you can predict the future, let us know.
Trump brought Zelinsky into the White House and ambushed him in a made-for-TV moment. Trump dropped massive tariffs on China and won't tell anyone what he is actually trying to do or what he wants, so negotiators cannot get past the first stages of talks. Like literally, they have asked "What do you want?" and been met with silence. \[To be fair, this is with EVERY country. None of them know what he actually wants to reach a deal.\] And America started this whole thing by declaring an economic war on its closest allies, and threatening to dissolve NATO, and abandoning Ukraine to the wolves. And I am sure the disrespect has something to do with it to - particularly a big deal in Asian cultures. Would you negotiate with us?
> What is going on here > It's the Art of the Deal, Jerry You *wish* and *dream* it is only a single person, Donald Trump. Even when he is dead from health or travel problems, the problem isn't going away with his books and ideas. USA lost a information war to Russia that took place right here on Reddit. This is all Surkov style information warfare and Surkovian governing. This was all documented back in year 2014 in book and Adam Curitis BBC video presentation. You WISH it was domestic one man, it isn't, it's all of NATO and China with Russia. But nobody in USA can stop their fixation on White House antics and get serious about how Cambridge Analytica and the Kremlin created 5,000 alternate reality screen games to convince Americans not to confront Russia's methods themselves.
>The investment in the EU military was a Trump ask that he got by bullying people. Erm. NATO spending targets were set under Obama in 2014. I know that MAGA has claimed credit, but no they did not "get that" by bullying or otherwise.
Trump's first term was a bit different. Despite all of he was doing we still had solid trust in the alliance, NATO and US security guarantees. He didn't threaten to annex geopolitical parts of Europe. What you say about technology is completely correct, but it still doesn't take away the fact that those same principles apply to energy as well. And the amount of energy we are willing to buy from US dictates the amount of tariffs, and it's not going to be 350 billion. Reliance on US tech is another problem. Also you are correct with the unity, it is difficult for us. Hence the negotiations between member countries take months if not years, meanwhile we have gotten 90 days to "negotiate" in an environment where we are unclear of what will be demanded and do not have sufficient time to discuss it between members. That doesn't lead into a situation where we raise the white flag and accept all the tariffs, it leads to a situation where we run out of time and hit a dead end with the negotiations. Then we are hit with higher tariffs and as we are unable to reach an agreement of retaliation we probably respond with a blanket tariff when pushed into a corner. This could go a bit differently as well, since apparently we have already reached some sort of conclusion and there has been formed a list of between 400-1300 items from US that will be subject to tariffs should negotiations fail. Since you seem to be so sure of a deal, what kind of a deal do you expect to come out of this?
In part two their boys will get drafted to go fight NATO in Canada and Greenland. This is just the beginning
It was great during his first term and would be good now too but he has so many decades old problems to fix quickly before some crazy lib you guys are whipping up with lies unalives him. Biden broke so much stuff he has to fix ten things simultaneously! And the tariff and NATO welfare programs have gone on for decades because no one else had the gonads to fix them. After these old messes are cleaned up everything will boom again!
Likewise, we still have population centers and ports on the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, we are a massive producer of food, and we are producing more petroleum every year than anyone else. If we withdraw from NATO and stop protecting other allies, all the companies in developed economies like Europe and Japan are going to face ruinous tax bills when their governments begin to really spend on defense (and all those nice social programs are getting cut to the bone). Meanwhile all the developing market governments are going to eventually see a reason to seize foreign investments. Without Uncle Sam looking over their shoulder, they won't just send you your dividend payment while people are starving locally like they do now. It would be a very ugly world. Even before Trump, I made sure to have some percentage of my portfolio in international stocks and bonds. At the same time, there are very few possible futures where excluding the US from your portfolio entirely is a good idea.
Never will be. Its fully intertwined with the gov., runs the military for NATO, and WW3 is bullish for them.
I believe the EU is slowly being "forced" into becoming more America like, especially if NATO starts to really weaken. Will EU countries be forced to give up their healthcare in order to build up their own militaries? Will America's recent actions force the EU to want to start growing their own domestic tech industries even more, forcing them to "ease up" on regulations. Honestly, if the EU turned down their socialism slightly, and turned up the capitalism, they have the people, talent, and intelligence to dominate America in the coming years.
Nah, man, it's done. We simply can't count on US to be in a leadership role. You guys can stick with NATO, but the time of the US leading the west is done.
I saw someone else post this in a different thread, but how can we promise and convince other countries that we won't elect another idiot like this next time or the time after? If the winds change in this manner every four years, that's almost less enticing to outsiders than having a predictable idiot like Trump until the end of time. I agree it's not completely gone but this might be akin to cheating on your wife and convincing her to stay. It's almost assuredly eroded any thought of 90s hegemony or ally policy support. If we pull out of NATO it's truly the end.
Yes, **military force** means invade. So you hate Biden for supporting Ukraine, but you have no problem with Trump threatening a NATO member with military force.
Destabilizing America’s economy, undermining America’s ties to traditional allies like Canada and Europe, weakening Europe and NATO, damaging China which Russia sees as an ideological adversary. Yup, Trump sure seems to check all the boxes as a Russian stooge.
Yet 🥭 maniac decides to engage trade wars with our allies as well, I understand where 🥭 is coming from with China using other countries as a loop hole to direct tariffs but engaging in tariff war with NATO allies is not the answer.
I'd agree with your assessment only if orange regard lunatic also decided to attack our decades old NATO allies like a drunken uncle that had one too many at the wedding.
The U.S. as a hegemonic state ended about 50 years ago, and during that time the U.S. provided very generous aid and trade agreements to develop other nations’ economies and defense needs. However, the world continues to cry poor mouth even while the EU’s GDP being larger than the U.S. Meanwhile China puts up tariffs behaving it cannot compete against American manufacturing. Canada finds nothing wrong with shirking its defense spending obligations under NATO but instead figures the U.S. would come to its defense (and very likely would too). “Uncle Sap” has become tired of the rest of the world taking advantage of Americans.
EU when America leaves NATO: 🥵
Not to mention they will have to actively fund their military if the U.S. leaves NATO., and may lose universal healthcare to pay for it. Plus, Norway and Finland's reliance on fossil fuels will also start to hurt those countries economies.
It’s confirmed—he’s a Russian asset. Even former Russian spies admitted it. He had a codename. Everything he does benefits Russia. The goal? Undermine NATO. Fracture alliances. So Putin can chase his Hitler-era dreams without firing a single bullet. Every intel agency saw it. A GOP-led Senate report confirmed it. The Mueller Report spelled it out—until Bill Barr swooped in to muddy the waters. That’s what Barr does. He’s a fixer. And despite all the evidence, people still sleepwalking. Russia keeps backing him because he’s their chaos agent—and the job ain’t done until America turns on itself completely.
Im possitive that the removal of the dollar as reserve currency his endgame goal though. Everything that he advocates for could in theory long term benefit from this. Bringing manufacturing back to US, reduced global reliance to the dollar and thus less economical pressure from foreign countries, disruption of USAs role or removal of it from national institutions like NATO, etc etc. Overall making America more esocentric. I personally think this is a very flawed logic that lacks economical understanding and even more the understanding of what the consequences would be worldwide. But i also geniunely think Trump admin simply doesnt care about being no1 in the world. In economy, in military, in tech advancement. Instead they see this as a bad thing. Their logic is along the lines that because America is no1 in these sectors the world takes advantage of them and thus they are actively working to get out of it. I think this is a terrible time to be a trader. May as well go to a casino and bet it all on red.
I'm waiting for Xi Xinping to call NATO and announce a 20% discount on wholesale shipment of DJI drones delivered to Ukraine if the other countries kick Trump's team out.
You can keep your S&P investment, so they can rebound later his decade. Or, you can sell them now and shift them over to an international or euro / asian ETF or similar. Or, you can check out individual stocks. Basically the "DCA into VOO and chill" (or other S&P etf's) is just swapped out with an international stock. Traditionally, international funds didn't do as well as S&P, but when the S&P is currently tanking, any return is better than negative return. That said... I have retirmenet plant that I DCA into VOO. I'll DCA into it to the bottom, then ride it back up over the decade. Meanwhile, I have a personal investment account that I sold my VOO in after the last bounce, and I'm camping on liquid cash waiting for the next tank to buy VOO and then sell again at the next bounce. If Trump's going to do that, then I'll take advantage of it. That will only work so many times, though, and eventually I'll be stuck holding a bag that's not bouncing back until it hits rock bottom. I'm also diversifying stocks over to EU stuff. I dabble in individual stocks. I have quite a few US-based stocks that have tanked. I'll let those sit until I want to loss harvest or see then bounce back. Other US stocks are doing well (SAIC, UTAM, MBOT).. some I was invested in by dumb luck, b/c I was following a momentum strat when trump did his BS, but they've been lucky to benefit from it. I just recently bought NOK, b/c they're a strong comms company and I think they'll have a good earnings report. I had them previously, sold them when they went up, but am going back into them. Bought some Blackberry and Intel again. Was in on them, sold them when they went up some, but now buying back in after the drops. All that said.. I also bought some Rheinmettal and Alianz per suggestions on Reddit. I already missed the bus on Rheinmettal's big jump. When Trump decided US would part ways with NATO, the EU got busy investing in big EU defense contractors to bolster them. The writing was on the wall in neon lights, and folks were buzzing about them on here. But, for some reason I didn't bother looking at them until recently.. and I feel like an idiot for missing this obvious skyrocket. If you want to "invest and chill" just research foreign / international ETF's. If you want to dabble in stocks, you're going to have to keep your ear to the ground, listen to chatter, and look at the politicial situations to see where the opportunities are. Whenever something really bad will potentially happen, there's often some company that would greatly benefit from it. Figuring out which ones is the tricky part.
Harris start WW3? The maniac we’ve got now is threatening the sovereignty of multiple different countries and did so before he was elected. Not to mention bucking NATO and embracing Russia and other aggressors. This has always been the flimsiest argument.