NIO

terminalguy007

Six years and a 90% loss on NIO is a genuinely difficult position to be in, and the sunk-cost framing is worth examining carefully. The psychological pull to hold is strong — the brain doesn't want to "lock in" the loss — but the relevant question is never what the stock has done to you. It's what the stock is going to do from here, with no memory of your cost basis. NIO as a business has deteriorated significantly since 2020. Revenue has grown, but the company has never been profitable, free cash flow has been consistently negative, and the competitive environment in Chinese EVs has intensified dramatically — BYD and domestic players are in a price war NIO is structurally disadvantaged to win. The thesis that made NIO exciting in 2020 (premium EV brand, battery swap differentiation, growth at any price) hasn't translated into durable economics six years later. The $700 position you have now isn't tied to a business on the verge of a turnaround — it's tied to a company still burning cash in a more competitive market than when you bought in. The practical framework: ask yourself if you would buy NIO at today's price with fresh capital. If the honest answer is no, you already have your decision — you're just not acting on it because of anchoring to the original purchase price. The $6,000 loss is real whether you sell or not. The question is only whether the remaining $700 has better expected return in NIO or redeployed elsewhere. Tax-loss harvesting is also worth considering — at your income level going into dental school, realizing the loss this year could have real value depending on your other income and gains.

theocdoctr

If this is a taxable account and you have gains, just sell NIO to offset your gains. I got rid of my SQQQ. bought it for $17.41 and sold it for $3.75. Sucker did the reverse split twice. Started with 1000 shares, then 300, then 60. Luckily I sold it this April when it was high at $62. Now it's going for $38. This was my rollover 401K account.

Fluffy-Phrase-1204

This is the classic sunk cost problem. The market does not care what you paid, only what that $700 can do for you today. If NIO was a fresh idea you were looking at right now, would you buy $700 of it today instead of using that money for school / moving / S&P or whatever? If the honest answer is no, then you already know what to do. The “tuition” you paid was the 6k loss. The lesson you get out of it is the actual return.

beachsandwichen

Oh shit NIO had a grey day what a sophisticated efficient market

Stock-Possibility-67

I have 16 thousand shares of NIO. Same started buying at about 10 in 2020ish and sold some near the top. I now have averaged down to 8 dollars a share and holding it. They’re getting closer to real profitability maybe another year. Why not average down?

Informative-V

They keep trying to push $NIO down but it keeps standing strong at 4.80! $5+ by end of day!

Informative-V

Keep an eye on $NIO it doesn't stay below $4.70-$4.80 often, it always rebounds!

Informative-V

It's 2030 and I'm going to drive my brand new $NIO to $WEN then me and the homies are going to go to $GME to pick up GTA 7.

Southern_Money_9739

Hold NIO is almost profitable.

Informative-V

$NIO

booklover_stockplay

I finally gave up on Paypal. $11k loss. Bought during covid also. The hype was awful. Age doesn't matter because I also fell for the trap. I also lost on NIO too. Sold for loss on it last year or the year before.

CMDRo7CMDR

Laughs in NIO

IndiscriminateWaster

It’s funny to see this post as I did the exact same with NIO back then and felt sick looking at the loss at this point. Lots of good advice here that I’ll def be taking.

nkplague

For me it’s simple. If I had $700 today would I buy NIO? If yes you should hold. If no then you should sell.

Fortheseoccasions

Here’s my NIO story, I hate sharing this failure story of mine but here it is. During covid I heard about NIO as well and bought into the hype, I brought my account from 40k > 180k with both NIO options and stocks in like a year. I thought I was unstoppable. Then NIO dropped to 45$ and I am to 120k. It was so painful but I thought if I ride it out it would eventually recover. Nope it continue to drop to 12$, at that point I have 35k left on my account. I finally decided to sell everything because fuck NIO. After the last 2 years investing in other stocks my account is now about 85k, far from my peak but at least it’s recovering. It would have been like 15k if I left it with NIO. Fuck NIO.

tidder8

Need to get out of the mindset that NIO "owes" you the money. Sell it and do something useful with the money.

Ok-Employ8218

a good simulation i like to run in my head: if i had $700 today, would i buy NIO? at this point consider it cash on hand and buy what you would buy with $700.

midweastern

If you need the money or don't think the company has a future worth investing in, just sell and take the loss. You can claim the full capital loss up to like $3,500 and carry the remainder forward. FWIW I really like NIO at current prices and would buy more. Apart from BYD, they're best poised to capture international EV market share and are already sold in Scandanavia.

Corporate_Overlords

I'm confused. I was just looking at the chart for NIO. Did you basically buy it at the top and watch it tank? When you were purchasing it it had been at about 4 or 5 dollars per share a year before then you watched it skyrocket up to 40-50 dollars per share in a matter of months and thought: NOW is the time to buy! Is that what happened?

gatsby209

I would offset capital gains with it. So for example, suppose you sell another stock and make a $1,000 profit. Usually, you’d have to pay tax on that during tax time. But instead right after you sell for a $1,000 profit, sell off $1,000 of NIO stock. That way you get to keep that $1,000 you just made and you won’t have to pay any taxes on it. Repeat until you no longer have any NIO stock. (Then, buy a few shares at a much lower cost basis on the off chance we get another EV hype cycle and it 10x)

wwb_99

What is done is done, you can't fix the bad entry point. It is either 141 shares of NIO or $700. Given there are no taxes in play, the question to ask yourself is "how would I invest that $700 today?"

Double_Suggestion385

NIO lol

Nuclear_N

I had NIO. It was these kind of stocks that led me to all index.

abu_karam

I hold NIO bught my cost is 28.5

ValueSeeker1

At -90% the sunk cost debate is mostly academic — the real question is whether $700 deployed elsewhere has better odds than hoping NIO somehow 10x from here. I'd sell, harvest the tax loss, and put it toward something in your circle of competence. Dental school is frankly a better investment than NIO ever was. The 'I've held for 6 years' trap is real — the market doesn't care how long you've suffered.

Such-Distance4019

I had NIO. I sold @ a loss years ago, thanks God. I doubt EV is coming back, but what do I know. S&P will give you better return than holding on to NIO. SPY would have given you more than 70% return on your investment in the past 5 years.

HammerDownl

You have discipline my friend I would have sold it a long time ago that being said you could do a little tax harvesting to offset the games or do nothing and hope NIO comes back one day I held SOFI for two years at -50% because i bought at the wrong time. Now im up 150%. Go figure

VictorChristian

if you have any positions that have done well and you want trim that position or take the profit, this would be a nice time to offset $6000 of gains against the NIO $6000 loss. Another thing would be to just sell NIO at a loss, get $700 and reduce your 2026 taxable income by $3000 and 2027 taxable income by another $3000.

Valhallafax

If you had $700 today, would you put it all into NIO ? If the answer is no, you should sell it

Rav_3d

To be honest, serious investors in highly speculative stocks like NIO manage risk. You did not. When investing in individual stocks, I always use stop losses to manage risk on new positions. You can be right about a company and wrong on the timing. Or, you can be wrong about the company. Setting a maximum loss you are willing to endure keeps you from situations like this.

rice_not_wheat

If you had $700 cash, would you put it in NIO? If so, keep your position. If not, sell it and put that $700 in something you'd rather invest in. Don't fall for sunk cost fallacies. The unrealized loss is already lost.

fourwedge

I know you aren't asking about NIO... but that is the whole reason to own a company. If it is compelling enough that you believe in what they do and you think they will make money, have a moat, are growing earnings then you buy it and keep it... if something has changed with a company fundamentally then that's when I sell it. It should really have nothing to do with what price you bought it, or how far down it is for you. Is the company compelling? Does the company have a better then average (S&P 500) chance of beating the market? If no, then you should have sold it, the minute it's chances went below the S&P 500's chances of making a profit. If it never had that good of a chance, then you shouldn't have bought it. In summary: How are the companies fundamentals? You weren't looking at something silly like TA were you when you bought it I hope?

SnS2500

\> when do you finally move on? When you have a better use for the money. This is just about the easiest part of investing. If NIO is not in your mind the very best use of the money, sell it and put the money to better use.

OutspokenLurker

Ahhhahh! Guessing you've never heard of "tax loss harvesting". Take the loss now for tax purposes. It will offset other capital gains (or $3k/year of ordinary income). If you love the NIO play long-term, get a sector ETF in that arena tomorrow. If you really want to be in NIO, buy it back in AFTER 30 days (look up "wash sale rule")

Apprehensive-File552

Since my post, \- $BABA has gone up 16%, \- $NIO has gone up 6.5%. \- My leaps are up 65% currently (will be more as HSI just bounced off support). $KOSPI is down 11% on the index.

Apprehensive-File552

https://preview.redd.it/p77ii5ldlxbh1.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=d864d8461eec3a0b6306841868d055272384895a Since my post, $BABA has gone up 16%, $NIO has gone up 6.5%. My leaps are up 65% currently.

Regenbooggeit

NIO was the best thing and the worst thing that happened to me when I just started investing. Got out with just a little profit after seeing it go to 65 and then blowing back to my costs basis of 25. Glad to see it's doing so well, what the fuck. Great cars though.

Moist-Guava-732

china sleeping dragon has awakened NIO XPEV TCEHY

juflyingwild

NIO. $300k+ in shares. Got lucky with options on it, but the shares are down almost 80% AFTER quintupling down.

Apprehensive-File552

Feel free to do a remind me, I have $200k in leaps for $BABA and $500k in leaps for $NIO both Jan expiry. Entry was last week.

Skadforlife2

My NIO shares agree.

MakeABeerRun

$NIO by far

Ready_Scratch_1902

grpn and znga. i timed bottom perfectly on znga. sold 300k loss. of course couldve rebought. it went on to 7x. but then i wouldve never met my wife. long story. her net worth is pretty much that 7x. lol. i learned to always watch voo when i trade. the sync ing of stock movement to voo and algos. znga was following qqq when it dove and rebounded. grpn's lesson was always trust your instincts on founders past behaviour with companies. thats why i got out of NIO. that ceo has a long history of diluting shareholders and being vague with the offering money. all tuition paid in full. with two shiny diplomas on the wall.

EmperorMeow-Meow

NIO. Got in, saw it skyrocket. Rode it too long... Watched it plummet. Kept thinking or might recover... It never did.

Ok-Being36

NIO

Raj_007Singh

$NIO was my worst pick 🤬 Also, $CELH was finally able to sell it just under 20% L

Strong_Guidance_6437

NIO. Back when Tesla fomo

toost1cky

I told my gf to buy NIO in 2021 and it wiped her account lmao

shinku443

BLNK and NIO. Bought during the ev Chinese craze, only bought a few thousand but still keep it to remind myself that I'm a fucking dunbass. -90%. Also SMR leaps. Was up 500% or 1000% at one point I think, they're also at like -95% that one was like 30k though so that's an oof

bigsnow999

Fxxxxx NIO

ExpressGovernment420

Man if NIO ever goes back up to 40 🤣

Dapper_Grapefruit975

Agreed and NIO not far behind

Gate2throw

NIO is so 2020

Moist-Guava-732

now is the time to buy chinese EV before they get canada manufacturing deals XPEV NIO

beachsandwichen

What am I missing on NIO there is just zero reason it should be close to 5$

Mentethemage

NIO was on a rocket some years back... sank back down to pretty much where it IPOed and has been there since. Shame these companies aren't churning what I would have expected them to by this point. I hold positions in both and will for a long time, I guess

flumydumdum

Pretty sure they are short on NIO, considering the latest announcement... I suspect that NIO will pump later in the year and go back to double digits in 2027. To bad for those calls though :/

WrexyWrex

Here is my bear thesis for SpaceX ready? We long been told by idiots that government spending isn't as efficient as private investment. Well here we go. In May 1961 JFK told Congress we should commit to sending a man on the moon. Apollo 11 touched down in July 1969 just 8 years later. The whole project from start to finish took 8 fucking years with 1960s tech. Now fast-forward, SpaceX has been around for 24 years and has been taking government money the entire time and Starship is still no yet fully operational. That's with the benefit of current technology so I don't want to hear about return missions. To put this into context with Elon, here is his Tesla record. First he didn't invent an electric car he bought the company and the technology. Took massive subsidies to gain an advantage over the market. He announced that the battery would be switched out at a station so charging wouldn't be an issue. He flipped on that to capitalize on charging and inconvenienced the entire electric market. Imagine if no one needed to actually charge, and you could just switch your battery, there would be no barrier of entry to owning an electric vehicle, but he made the decision to shitify it with government money funding his company. This is what industry is, shareholder supremacy where managers try to make as much money as possible with no moral or ethical restraints. This video is very old, but it was all you needed to know that Elon was always a piece of shit. [https://youtu.be/Oj6LaYFall4?si=SC63SgF5L6OXBRwl](https://youtu.be/Oj6LaYFall4?si=SC63SgF5L6OXBRwl) And yes this is a viable thing, NIO does it in China. He literally set us back because of his greed just like all corporations do.

West_Lavishness6689

we all did.  FCEL NIO ZOM BB AMC literally hundreds of them but we didnt know the game yet. so a lot of us paper handed. then we tried diamond handing and got ducked in the ass when we should've been paper handing. life's lessons.

TinCanBegger

Thanks for confirming my choice to offload NIO when I was up a little.

worktogethernow

NIO is profitable now. I'm still long NIO.

Resident-Earth-1842

I wanted to buy NIO at 1$ or less whatever it was before they were rescued, which I was assuming it would happen. But I never did. My idea was to get a good amount and bet there, knowingly there were chances to make a lot of money but... this is how investment works.

spideys_memes

Damn I remember NIO I sold for a loss can’t trust those Chinese stocks man

worktogethernow

My friend, I am bag holding a $30k loss in NIO for 5 years now. Breakeven would be paradise.

enkay516

My misunderstanding has had me holding NIO for years waiting for gains to offset it lmao. I work in the finance too (not client facing, and don’t hold a 7 which is where that info likely lives) so a bit of a reality check.

milkplantation

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. I think the more intriguing aspect is any American company that can produce the entirety of the electro industrial stack will be very well positioned over the next 10 years. The electro industrial stack is: Batteries, compute, small motors. This will be the foundation for everything going forward. China has heaps of these companies: BYD, Xiaomi, DJI, Huawei, GWM, NIO. To my knowledge, the only American company that possesses a level of vertical integration directly comparable to BYD is Tesla. So, beyond defense contracts, any American company that can vertically integrate the electro industrial stack would be a buy for me. In your DD, do any of the companies you've profiled check those boxes?

Nuclear420v

50 shares of TSM with a cost basis of $64. Then the early days of 500 shares of NIO sold that I sold for $5/share for a gain of 1k before it attained $65/share. All peanuts compared to most, but my nuts

juflyingwild

NIO down as usual. 1 day up, 3 to 4 days down.

Chicken-Burrito22

Thanks for the response! I have actually thought of doing this for a couple of months. Only reason why I haven’t donde it is because both NIO and SNAP are at a -80% loss so I figure even if it keeps going down I have lost most of the money already, and if it goes up I can make some money back and sell later or hold on forever and use them as a lesson for in the future. I definitely got carried away with those two and Draft Kings.

booobReviewer

MSFT, and GOOG are a strong foundation. The problem is the tail: SNAP, NIO, DKNG are basically speculative bets that haven't worked. DKNG could still pay off long-term if they reach profitability (they're close), but SNAP has structural ad revenue problems and NIO faces existential risk from EU tariffs and BYD's price war. A clean move would be cutting SNAP and NIO (take the tax loss if anything) and sizing up in your winners or adding something like VOO. Makes your portfolio simpler and removes the emotional drag.

Ill_Marketing_2588

Aww those were the good old days. Made so much money off NIO

cancelledbot

Where’s that mf with $6 NIO strikes for 06/18

MrJohnnyXD

NIO is better 👍🏻

Chicken-Burrito22

Hey guys what do you think? I am sharing the percentage they represent in my wallet as of today. I have some big losses in NIO, Snap and Draftkings but I think I will just let it ride. Any tips would be super appreciated, I am 28 year old that is okay with some risk Berkshire Hathaway - 20.91% Apple - 12.89% Tencent - 8.01% Ali Baba - 7.56% Microsoft - 6.97% Google - 6.88% Mexican ETF - 6.15% META - 5.31% QQQM - 5.06% Mexican ETF - 3.69% Draft Kings - 3.49% Cash - 2.67% Lululemon - 2.11% NU - 1.59% Snap - 1.44% Nio - 1.41% Novo Nordisk - 1.23% Disney - 0.91%

avviswas

As a NIO stockholder, I know stock dilution. I frequently use Siri Rewrite to correct grammar and improve the quality of my text. Do you have any issues with it?

Similar_Eagle2358

didn't he fuck NIO too back in the day?

SnooShortcuts5771

NIO. Recent numbers are promising

beachsandwichen

That NIO price action looks real organic

FFXIV_Yunarin

You know over the years, NIO has made so many bag holders... Good luck lol...

flumydumdum

Kudos to another NIO regard. Posted a 70k NIO yolo 2 weeks ago. Let's hope this goes up.

Cashmoneytendies

People really do be sleeping on NIO, Chinese EVs are the future 

ihatestocks

anyone tracking NIO?

fordprecept

FWIW, I think NIO still has lots of upside. Good bet it sees $15, maybe low 20s by the end of the decade, quite possibly sooner.

SnooShortcuts5771

NIO.

gtalossantos

Also look at the number of features a BYD or a NIO has in the same price range as Tesla, it's insane.

Real_ilinnuc

I was into NIO several years back. How are you feeling about their future outlook?

chessthebeast

I feel you. NIO and SPCE was my valuable lesson to learn as a new investor/trader.

TeamFoulmouth

NIO gonna run to $60 again!??!

surmoiFire

please buy BABA NIO these Chinese stocks and celebrate

LuvSicPt5

I never thought I'd live to see the day where I'd be again in positive with NIO, maybe in a few years will happen the same with ZScaler

Silver_Initial3718

$NIO to $20

Bravadette

NIO

Specific_Claim3956

bro going all in after a 95% drop is either galaxy brain or complete insanity lol. I remember when NIO was the meme stock everyone was throwing money at, those were wild times selling your car for this trade though... that's some next level commitment. hope you got good public transport where you live because this could go either way real fast

beachsandwichen

Not necessarily losing money but it feels like it when everyone else is making so much. Been buyingGME BB and NIO. I’m up 150% on BB. I’ve put 20k more into the other two tickers……

ChillingInMySnuggie

I feel like once NIO expands into other countries heavy like BYD then it would move.

abunchofBlarney

I also was in NIO

Ok_Negotiation_4061

You bought at the top too ? Every time I see NIO I get PTSD, it was my biggest lost ever

Rich-Kaleidoscope-12

Im always scared of These ADR stocks, but I can see a big increase in chinese EV since Politics are holding Oil in that country. not to mention this NIO is the "cheap" option

SalmonTheSalesman

I remember when in 2021 when NIO was this subs golden child. Now its trading like a penny stock

LOTRcrr

NIO. Ahhh, those were the days lol