OPEX
Tradr 2X Long OPEN Daily ETF
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Some movement is expected after 3pm. Either up, or down. Today is a monthly OPEX
I always get my bum cheeks clapped on OPEX
its because everyone is finding AI so damn useful.... before AI they would find 1 thing and find solution for that 1 thing.. but now.. with AI... it finds a SERIES of things.. and gives you insight to ALL of them.. and instead of having 1 project.. you have like 10 projects on one go... Management is happy and so the staff keeps hammering the tokens.... I mean companies CAN limit the usage.. but when the productivity slow.. they realize its just another OPEX they need to factor in.. and in turn find way to charge their customers... its no different than the Internet and eCommerce... they think not having staff and running a website 24hrs will bring in exponential sales.. then later they realize that they will need to invest in website development, back end security etc etc to start getting the benefit of not having a physical store and hiring an army of staff...
TSMC's who built the chips is 2x normal margins. Nvidia who sold the chips is 2x normal margins. The ram systems is 2-3x the normal margin. Core weave bought them with debt and 60 percent margins. Anthropic runs them at 70 percent margins. There is absolutely massive demand for ai - can Anthropic get to 85 billion in revenue to cover the 50 billion a year in commitments (take or pay) it has? Yes. Can anthropic sustain that? The 200 dollar a month subsidized API plan gets you about $1000 (api price) worth of tokens a week. It isn't quite enough to keep a full time developer busy but close, and it makes the math easy. An NVIDIA system that will push enough tokens to support 3-4 developers is $120K MSRP ($99k preorder). Realistically 2 devs can keep this machine busy all day, and as a bonus running over night. Does 100k of OPEX to Anthropic compete with 100K of CapEx that you can depreciate? The instant demand stops outstripping supply (and it will) that same system goes down to 60k and then 40k... At 60k most CTO's would buy 2, at 40 they would buy 3, because there are people in an org who can make use of large numbers of agents running concurrently. Concurrent agents that Andrej Karpathy is talking about in a [tweet](https://thenewstack.io/karpathy-levie-ai-capability-gap/) (Sorry cant link to X) just aren't worth it if your paying API prices but if you own your compute it starts to make more sense. NVIDIA does NOT have a lock on this market either - 40k (per developer) Of M5 Apple Studio (512MB) is already a target for quite a few organizations that want to curtail that 1000 dollar a week spend - and is going to put pressure on the previously listed NVIDIA system. Every org that is going to make heavy use of AI (the customers anthropic wants) is also going to realize that the day time needs of the users who use it less turns into a bigger pool of agents running concurrently outside business hours. Meanwhile someone else is going to build a core weave equivalent at half the price, putting pressure on anthropic's margins and commitments. All the big players (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon) have their own chips, made at TSMC, that cut out NVIDA (but still buy premium ram). All of them have their own "intelligence" offering that is going to be competing with Anthropic/OAI - And some of them (MS, Meta) are actively curtailing their use of anthropic - in favor of their own internal tools. They might not be as good, but that difference is so marginal when you are running a large number of them concurrently.
always is. I suspect tomorrow is Apple down. With OPEX I think we get a ripper tomorrow morning followed by selloff. Apple I think goes down all day. The true sign for the market position I think will come monday or tuesday once opex wears off
With OPEX tomorrow and the call buying euphoria last month. It’s not looking so good 🙃
Buy SOXS to hide out the storm rn, OPEX is going to kill tech tomorrow even harder than these past two days
#Futures are gamma-neutral, liquidity-adjusted, delta-hedged, theta-decaying, VIX-contangoing, basis-arbitraging, yield-curve-inverting, Fibonacci-retracing, quantitative-easing-sensitive, algorithmically front-run, volatility-compressed, risk-parity-rebalanced, dark-pool-accumulated, OPEX-manipulated, triple-witching-induced, Fed-pivot-anticipating, short-squeeze-threatening, momentum-divergence-confirming, liquidity-trap-forming, backwardation-adjusted, open-interest-maximizing, put-call-parity-dislocating, dealer-gamma-flipping, cross-asset-correlated, systematic-trend-following, structurally bearish but technically bullish LMAO🤌🦅🗽
It’s not weird at all? CPI is tomorrow OPEX is Friday Today is Tuesday Happy to help
Dealer gamma hedging. It's a pretty well-known thing and we see it very often during OPEX weeks. Doesn't take a cystal ball to expect that we see it this week.
Just wait until Friday. Think were going to chop it up this week until OPEX.
Except R&D gets a more favourable tax treatment than usual OPEX.
I think price auction was compressing ahead of October OPEX next week. last two months of the year, so lots of stuff to shake out.
Usually the week of OPEX is vol suppression and tighter ranges each day into the friday am expirary. Looking at next weeks positions im seeing some red flags for this base case. A large amount of MM short calls sitting at 7800 will need hedges unwound if we remain below that strike through the week. 7725 is a mild balance point but if we lose 7725 theres a 100pt vacuum down to 7625. Accelerators are sitting at 7700 and 7650. 7700 is a 50/50 mixed bag with MM short 2000 calls and 1700 puts. While the 7650 accelerator MM are short 4000 puts. My view on next week is a base case of a drift lower to 7725 area and pin. In the small probability but greater risk of losing the 7725 balance you get the 100pt move down to the balance at 7625. And so using this to form a trade plan, I am selling an iron fly with 50pt wings and centered at 7725. Collecting $4300 in premium per lot risking $700 and a downside hedge 25pt wide put spread 7625/7650 risking $270 per lot with a $2200 max payout. Max risk for this trade is about $1000 per lot with max loss between 7650-7675 and anything above 7775. Profit ranges from 7650 and below or between 7675 and 7775.
The last minute dump was OPEX so no not gonna happen like that again until end of this quarter
It’s very profitable. Just about every enterprise company has adopted AI to some degree. That will continue to expand as the ecosystem around it takes shape. Enterprise revenue props up most industries. It’s not retail customers. Hardware refreshes happen every 5-7 years. That’s baked into OPEX. The industry hasn’t gone mad. It’s following the same cycle as every new invention that has mass appeal before it.
Thank you. The one reason I was familiar with was Friday OPEX, and saw strength going into close. Do you mind sharing the other reasons for learning purpose. https://preview.redd.it/o2uw2hm7ugrh1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab3279286e487971d2e2eb15ebf1ed6f826d1777
the post-OPEX hangover is real but the tech squeeze made everyone look silly for a day
is it also because of OPEX on fri. I think they just got rid of all their puts
The market is so green. Almost like it’s the day after OPEX.
Might be volatile after quad OPEX. Both up or down
I believe this statistic show that there’s about a 66% chance for a volatility regime transition based on the state before OPEX. As in if we’re volatile going into OPEX, there’s a higher probability that it’s less volatile afterwards. From Spotgamma research. Think about it as the biggest bets are being done on a quarterly basis. Right now is when they get unwinded and rolled or remade. It’s more the market state going in and out is what I track.
This week was September OPEX where majority of option contracts expire. September is end of the Q3 so it’s also the end of the quarter. We had a lot of price action and volatility this last quarter and it setups the end of the year. This September’s OPEX was one of the largest known expirations
Trump confirmed security over Greenland, Memory is pumping, 🙈 theta weekend, rate hikes coming up, peace deal on the table still, OPEX Friday, at this point you could’ve just given us the 43k instead. I will never understand gey bers
Oh, but you may - 60/40 vs 100% ST loss. Don't chase it though - this is a quarterly resolution. Completely legal, unless you're coordinating it. Hello, OPEX.
Fair , and for learning OPEX itself you're right. That's where the size and the attention is. I definitely look myself lol. I was answering something narrower though. He said he doesn't trade options, he uses OI to set futures levels. On that week most of the change is contracts closing out rather than new positioning, so he'd have a hard time telling which is which. Studying OPEX teaches you OPEX, which is useful, just not the thing he's after. Also agree on the price charts and on watching premium move continuously. That's the fastest way to get a feel for it.
I would argue that these OPEX contracts are the best to learn from. The most OI are on monthly OPEX contracts on the indices. Most market makers, most eyeballs, most influence into this week. Would anyone trying to trade options? I would tell them to intimately study how options move in and out of OPEX. I would also recommend looking at price charts. Need to see how the premium moves in a continuous path.
Who the fuck is picking up pennies into OPEX friday lolz this dude has like $1 million collateralized on AMD stock and is picking up pennies into probably the most volatile day of the month
OPEX is literally flat as fk every month
Incoming rockets to 762 to close out OPEX, just sayin'
This is one boring ass OPEX.
Green fireworks for closing OPEX This ain't your first rodeo, come on now Gotta sit thru the theta sell off first
Every single OPEX is the same and I never learn 😠
Largest OPEX in history, nothing is going to happen except flat or uppies
Plus MMs would like to see it close as close to 150 as possible today, due to triple witching OPEX.
OPEX day is pin day more than any other.
yeah it's OPEX day, and A LOT OF MONEY is at stake for institutions
Higher odds it finishes between $4.99 and $4.85. It's OPEX day. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it finishes at like $5.02 or something like that, just so the degenerates playing options can make some pennies.
Are there smart quants here? This is what data I found for today for SPY. Remember, its the triple OPEX, very strong hedging from MMs: MAX pain level is 755, (largest) put wall 760, call wall 765. Puts - calls open ratio for options expiring today: 3 (3 times more puts).
Least exciting OPEX day, gotta love this shit. There's so many puts expiring tomorrow this thing is gonna rip hard
Yeah, we’re all looking at the same data, and the heads of IR can only pitch you so much. There’s only a few conclusions to be drawn and no one is willing to stick their neck out at the moment to try to break through that massive call wall at 1000. Maybe next monthly OPEX, maybe.
Yeah, OPEX is likely the explanation, aided by some pressure relief in bonds, I guess.
Before Friday's triple OPEX? lol
Market will be very very difficult until next week with OPEX. If you made money today you’re probably best off calling it a week.
In other news, AI/Semis +8% day On a serious note, maybe after the OPEX/quad witch on Friday, shit about to get real
Triple OPEX effect? MMs are hedging. They don't want stock prices to be too low, to pay less on puts
It will definitely push higher for Fridays OPEX. There are substantially more puts than calls.
There is a triple OPEX on Friday, just to say.
Literally my friend running an Airbnb It’s profitable bro 6% yield per year Me: and RoI ? Friend: 6 year ? Me: but u rent that place for 3 how is it profitable Friend: it cover the OPEX Me: by the time ur rent is up u wont get ur ROI back ? Friend: no but we need to extend the rent but the yield is better than Tbills Me: u do realize TBills return ur money in full when it matured while’s urs only got like 80% back at best
Posting this one more time for the regards in the back. Not only is the left tail fatter this week, its also longer. Higher probability of a down week and a larger downside range than upside. 50pts of upside compared to 150 pts of downside From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
Thanks man, happy to share. Ive been bearish since 8/24 week, we would have broken down on the friday that week until Doug Kass tweeted with percision timing when the stock was testing support. That rallied us another two weeks apparently and I got sucked into bear traps admittedly. Made it back this week since we finally broke down. August was like 25 green days, un heard of rally in our sector as you know. To answer the question we have two monthly lows on MSOS at about $4.30 from May/June. I think MSOS will come down to $4.35 pretty quick here. Next week is OPEX where options expire and repositioning happens, so itll be interesting to see if we do hang our around $5 for one more week. After OPEX 9/18 you’ll see different price action as the open options interest is less of a market driver. Hope that makes sense, curious to see if we just dump on Monday. Friday’s close on MSOS daily candles looks very bearish. Were due to consolidate and chop around until the next headline. No way we break into a new trading range without a catalyst. Im fading this with $5 msos puts, gotta go 100+ days out to avoid theta decay.
I’m not sure it’s worth $57 a share. Negative earnings yield and around 44x fwd eps. 26x cash flow. Maybe if growth hadn’t decelerated from 30% to 20% in just a couple years. TL;DR YOLO CALLS FOR NEXT OPEX
I mean yes you're cooked, but at the same time it's also so bad you might as well hold and try to sell if it pumps some in Sept OPEX at this point. Honestly, you probably don't even have a choice, there probably won't even be anyone who will buy these unless it pumps like 20% this week because the strike and DTE basically guarantee they will expire OTM unless goes up nearly 100% in the next 12 trading days. Looking at your buy date and the details of the trade I would say in the future what you'd want to do (if you are generally bullish along with trying to momentum/technical trade) is *roll* OTM totally extrinsic valued contracts like this at least 30 days before expiry. That sharp move up at the beginning would have been the time to roll them out tell like January and honestly *down* to like an 80$ strike. It would have been a debit to do so, but you'd have had a realistic chance of recovering to at least break even all in all. I saw this is the second time around with ASTS like this and honestly your sizing it preventing you from managing the Trade imo. You're not giving your self the ability to average down or adjust your DTE and Strike through rolling without having to commit *way* to much capital. Both of these needed to be sized down to half, assuming the other one was at least a 45 dte and I'd want longer. Couldn't tell from just the sell order, but otherwise both needed tighter stop losses in the first place. Otherwise size OTM momentum lottos for what they are or buy ITM and set your stop before they move OTM.
Topline won’t be before October OPEX is my bet :)
The maintenance OPEX to keep production online is absurdly high, but the political risk is why little to no private capital touches it. Extra-heavy sour crude destroys pipelines and surface infrastructure faster than almost anything else.
And as I said last week. OPEX was the primer, nvda and Jackson hole were the catalysts. 7600 is the target next week.
To hedge my shares and long calls and since shorts didn't attack today they may tomorrow, plus possible profit taking, also OPEX it will probably get pinned at some point
You’re arguing against something I didn’t claim. I’m not saying $30B of revenue equals $30B of profit. Obviously Microsoft incurs COGS/OPEX and only keeps the margin. But in the end of the day. Revenue wise (from this example): +30Bn Income wise: +2-5Bn Balance Sheet Change: still 0 (for this deal alone since $30Bn cash = $30Bn OpenAI Stake)
This post itself is circular regardedness. Calling a Microsoft $30bn investment in OpenAI as synonymous with $30bn received in cash for sales proves how smooth your brain is. You totally forgot the part about Microsoft incurring COGS and OPEX on those sales so in reality it gets maybe $2bn in economic value back. If OpenAI issued a cash dividend to Microsoft (which is probably more what you meant) it would reduce their $30bn investment. Nothing circular about that. Basically OP forgot the other 3/4 financial statements to explain their thinking to 2 million other regards.
I add all of the option contracts as prices to a watchlist and look at the price charts and trend lines for them. I primarily only trade QQQ, NVDA 1-2 month options usually holding for 1-3 days or 1-2 weeks into end of month, fridays, OPEX, etc. Soemthing like 80% of all QQQ option volume is \~1 week expiration. If you study price charts and technical analysis like everyone should. You will learn quite a lot from watching the contracts with the most volume specifically zero DTE contracts and if you’re familiar with your own trend lines. You also get the added of being able to export this OHLCV data from 1 second / 1m/5min/1H etc with your own trendlines to be able to build your own back testing scripts off of which is one of the most robust processes I have discovered. You can’t really find this anywhere else, but you can get live option prices for like $10 a month on trading view. The most volume is on the strikes $5 apart such as $700, $705, $710 for 0DTE or weeklies etc. I know my exact entries because I’m staring at them on a price chart and that’s what my decisions are based off of the actual prices and the volatility and the trend lines.
Lost $3,000 on HOOD calls Friday for OPEX. Today it goes up $10. They just had to hold it below $100 till the monthlies expired.
The current setup on SPY reminds me of the midterm setup of 2018. It peaked the day before Sept OPEX then sold off 12% by Oct 29. Catalysts for the move higher over the next 19 trading days until Sept OPEX are NVDA earnings, Jackson Hole & a soft CPI in Sep
OPEX went meh, that Orange dude name dropped shitcoins before more tariff talk with trading partners... kinda been a week of nothing, but somethings to be fair.
The demand for silicon is way outpacing the supply. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. NVIDIA wouldn’t be raising prices if they thought their customers wouldn’t be able to afford it. This increase should more than offset the wafer increase TSMC announced in July meaning there should be a 1-5% increase in GM and probably covers the additional OPEX we have already started seeing with the hyperscalers earnings in July.
After OPEX Friday and SNDK getting pinned to 1600 the past few days, I'm curious where it'll move on Monday
The market should move more freely starting Monday with OPEX behind us…
On MU? Prob Monday kidding aside. Held 940-960 all week, OPEX over. Seems ready for a climb.
OPEX is always such a masterclass in options fuckery, every single time. Truly impressive
Spy bounced off the daily 20, we got the retrace we needed and I bet we’re off to the races. OPEX took out the call and put walls, this markets about to rip.
So, OPEX over but Monday will be another dump!
Might be a smart play with OPEX past us now
Most boring OPEX of all time
I blame OPEX. Back to steady climb next week 😭
Looks like it but still 20mins left and anything could happen on OPEX.
Made all the wrong moves at the wrong times today - You’re welcome MMs, happy OPEX day 🙃🥳
Made all the wrong moves at the wrong times today - You’re welcome MMs, happy OPEX day 🙃🥳
My thoughts exactly, but I don’t expect the volume to come thru into closing. My thesis is more of spike in volume in the next hour pushes SPY to 764 range before bouncing back to 765 for OPEX
imagine we close at 0% on OPEX
So I have a Masters in Regardium from the U of I (University of Incompetency), but does OPEX mean we go down a bit until mid day and then V hammer up to close it out? Probably not, probably Theta fuck or slow bleed another 20-40bps on QQQ.
During OPEX institutions move in and out of stocks too, so it could an etf or institution buying shares and rebalancing cuasing the new volume. No news so its likely market mechanics imo
Options expiration OPEX day. I think we saw some covering on smaller names yesterday, where buying to cover caused a rally. Will continue today, so be ready for abnormal movements in our beloved low-liquid stocks. MRMD and PLNH for example, I think this volume is shorts covering. Could be dead wrong
coulda been a hell lot of worse after yesterday + OPEX
OPEX... going back to sleep gn! Cash gang 😎
SPX going to be in a 6 point range all day, I can feel it brewing for OPEX
OPEX day, volume will happen
So this is one of the big green OPEX days. Got it.