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Please share your wisdom on the proper way to deploy the butterfly
2023-05-10 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of an Airline Pilot
#afterhours #watchlist 02/17 $LTHM - earnings, $MTEK- Maris-Tech to Co-Develop Video-Based Advanced AI Systems, $RDFN -earning, $ISPO -no news , $APPN - earnings, $PPC - no news, $SHAK - earnings... Also check premarket runners and low float stocks in my app!
Is it insider trading knowing this and buying the SHAK dip right now caused by the truffle burger?
Mentions
"and if you listen to the headlines, you’d think this company is about five minutes away from bankruptcy. " In 2014, a handful of restaurants went public because people wanted the next Chipotle. I don't think any of those is above where they went public, some were taken private at below IPO price (including Zoe's Kitchen, which eventually became part of CAVA.) I remember in 2015 when SHAK went public and people were hyped up for it. 10 years later you could have done much better and with less stress by owning the SPY or even WMT. SHAK is up about 80% since IPO and has had three 60%+ drawdowns and a few 40%+ drawdowns. In 2021, PTLO went public and while it was more of a regional thing it was beloved enough that people thought the concept would travel well and spread to other areas. It went up some initially...and then has proceeded to lose 90% in pretty much a straight line. Needless to say, it didn't travel well. BROS has ultimately gained against a weakened SBUX, but how any people sat through the 70% drawdown from the 2021 high? Nobody's saying SG is going bankrupt, it's just the experience of owning a premium restaurant concept that does well when the economy is doing well and is something you want to not be anywhere near when it's not. SG's history as a public company: -90% drawdown off the 2021 IPO, +560% off the 2023 low, then now down 83% again. While not apples-to-apples, for all the hype over SHAK you've had 10 years of volatility and not much to show for it. What's keeping the next 10 years of this being "the best of times, the worst of times?" like it has been as public company - huge volatility and great if you can catch the bottoms but not something that's ultimately a good long-term holding? The K-shaped economy situation you mention is important and while *perhaps* temporary I wouldn't handwaive it away - how long does that go on, how much further does it spread? CMG is down 40% this year, CAVA down 62% from its bubble high earlier in the year. It's not just a SG issue. "There is a massive "Trade Up" happening where people are leaving generic fast food for "clean eating." Sweetgreen is perfectly positioned to capture the demographic that views lunch as a health investment, not just calories. " I think this is a smaller audience than your thesis needs it to be. "The biggest bear case right now is that Sweetgreen is just overpriced "slop" that consumers are abandoning. " I don't know that it's overpriced slop but there is a price point for anything where enough people are going to start to seek alternatives/trade down/etc. There is absolutely a price ceiling for salad bowls, burritos, whatever where you will start seeing people say no, or cut back. If you like restaurant automation, you may want to take a look at Circus SE in Germany (I'm not long but something you may find of interest.) I don't see SG as a zero and I don't really think I've seen a lot of people online who do - I just think the reality for this stock is that it's going to be something that does well when times are great and it's not something you are going to want to own when times are less than great unless it's down massively and you think you can pick the turn in the economy.
It wouldn't be a reason to invest imo. Not a fan of investing in restaurants and nothing against China, but the China growth story for brands like Starbucks hasn't worked out - Starbucks sold a stake in Starbucks China recently after being viewed not that many years ago as a key part of what growth story it had. There have absolutely been successful restaurant investments, but it's the kind of thing where tastes can change, problems can set in (see CMG recently down 50% YTD) and you're reliant on a consumer that in a lot of cases continues to struggle/is starting to walk away from $12 burritos. I look at something like SHAK and recall how hyped it was when it IPO'd and you would have done much better (and had less volatility - SHAK has had at least a few 60%+ drawdowns since going public and a few ~40% ones) just owning the SPY. You could have done better in WMT than SHAK since SHAK's IPO and had a less stressful experience holding the stock. PTLO IPO'd a few years ago to much fanfare because of how well liked it is, but the concept didn't expand as people thought it would and the stock is now down about 90% from the post IPO high and is trading at less than book. Diversified RBI has done better than most in the industry in the last couple of years, but still not great returns and the stock is about where it was in 2017. It's not a bad company as restaurants go, just not something I think is appealing as a long-term holding. I don't think this news is going to materially help the stock short-term.
wtf - I’ve got SHAK also - Cramer is out to kill all my option positions. . .
run SHAK runnnnn. . . might have to add some leaps - or panic sell pre earnings.
**RIDE THE WAVE. BUYING. HOLD.** **Shorts own the float. Retail owns the moment.** *Not financial advice. Just conviction.* |Company|Short % of Float| |:-|:-| |**BYND**|**≈ 62–80%** 🔥| |PTON|22%| |SHAK|6%| |AAPL|0.6%| |NVDA|0.8%|
puts on the following $SHAK $CAKE
Shake Shack - For when you want something that is shaped like a burger but without any of that burger flavor $SHAK
IMO, the issue becomes it was a complete bubble at $140 - at one point it was valued at $56M a location, which is absurd. This will also get majorly impacted in any sort of consumer downturn and the progression of comps lately is concerning: Q4 was +21%, Q1 +10.8% and now Q2 is +2.1%. Sweetgreen (from +4% to -7.2%) and Chipotle (from +5.4 to -4%) comps look similar in recent quarters. If people cut back, stuff like expensive salad bowls is going to be high on the list. I remember 10 years ago or so when there was a wave of restaurant IPOs because people wanted "the next Chipotle." None of them have done well, although Zoe's was bought out below where it went public and that eventually became part of CAVA. In 2025, Cava might finally become "the next Chipotle" that everyone wanted 10 years ago but the original Chipotle not looking so great. I think this concept could do well over time, but it's going to be a volatile holding - it's the kind of thing that will go in the toilet every time there's even a hint of a slowdown. Look at SG so far as a public company: -87% from the IPO to the bottom in 2023, then up 568%, then gives nearly all of that back down 78%. Just feels like there's easier growth stories to own out there. Not apples-to-apples, but look at something like SHAK which is up about 140% since going public about a decade ago - three 60%+ drawdowns, three 30%+ drawdowns. Could have gotten better returns and less stress just owning the SPY.
Good morning early birds. My picks today are PANW, SHAK, BULL. I believe these are all currently undervalued at their current price point. Thoughts?
I sold 25% of my holding at $90. The plan, before the massive drop, was to sell another 25% at $110. then another 25% at $130. Then, the last 25% around $150. If it rebounds, I'll stick to that plan. I did something similar with SHAK, and that was smart, in hindsight.
Lol I'm buying burger chain stocks today. Wendy's (WEN) for the meme potential, and Shake Shack (SHAK) as an actual investment (2nd quarterly earnings was great, 3rd one expected to be great too. Early international phase going well, first A.I. implementations proven successful for the company. )
bc it's delicious and is way too small. Very bright future ahead, could be like SHAK
I just sold 25% of my MDGL and 25% of my ROKU. Then I added some to my DECK position. I sold a lot more than I added, today. Recently, I sold all my SHAK and all my GOOS (I bought earlier in 2025). If VKTX, Z, and RDDT go up, I'll start to reduce my positions, and add some to my crushed positions (DECK and VFC). I add shares, when stocks drop. I shed shares, when they retrace upward.
Why is SHAK priced like TSLA? Those burgers cure cancer?
I think it was based on sentiment alone. Stock soared last 2 years . Last earnings report was outstanding. Here’s the thing though , while the have a 73 PE they are profitable which is rare for a fairly new expanding business. I bought this in the low 30s while I was reading “ One up on Wall Street “ where Lynch laughed at himself for missing Taco Bell and owning McDonalds instead . The same thing happened to SHAK which bottomed out on Trumps Independence Day..Of course we can’t be sure of the future but both stocks have the same theme .green and growing. SHAK has totally recovered, CAVA has not…yet.
It's a smaller holding of mine. I think it's oversold. My gym is full of Hoka sneakers. I believe it will regain its former high. RDDT also dropped. I added a lot around $125. When SHAK dropped, I added a lot too. SHAK rebounded 47% from its April low. GOOS is up 40%+ from its APRIL low. I'll sell GOOS, if/when it hits $15 per share.
With ROKU, I'm currently at break even, after 16 months of holding it. It's within 1 dollar of where I bought it (over several days, back in Feb 2024). I'm up some on PYPL and some on Z. But I'm down on VKTX and DECK. I knew I bought DECK way too high. I bought VFC. It went up 75%. I decided not to sell any. It cratered back to where I bought it. That's why I sold my SHAK.
SHAK went up a lot, but I sold it. Is ROKU tech? Is Z tech? I hod both. My big risks are clothing (VFC, GOOS, DECK) and a phrama (VKTX).
Not really with RDDT or DECK. I sort of got trapped in both. I was reluctant to buy either, because I thought they were (both) too high, but I failed to resist the temptation. For now, I'm holding until I at least break even. I've been adding on the dip. I have more clarity on my other positions, but I bought most of those at a low point. For example, I'll sell half of my ROKU at $100 and the rest by $150. I sold half of my SHAK at $115 and will sell the rest around $145.
Danny boy is happy everyone is buying SHAK.
introducing the Trash 7 - TSLA, PLTR, CVNA, DASH, DUOL, SHAK, BROS
Been holding SHAK since the pandemic crash—solid business, great brand. Tariffs or not, people always want burgers. Just gotta watch those food costs!
Damn didn’t know SHAK ran up
All the nonsense aside, what can Americans in this sub truly say of the quality of their products? I am genuinely interested. How do you rate their main offering in terms of quality and taste? What about the on site experience and the general clientele? Are the shops clean and well maintained? Are the shops busy? Same goes for Wendy’s, Yum Brands, SHAK, …? When I was in the US I loved In&Out but it’s private, possibly for good reasons. I was a bit shocked by the low quality of Taco Bell. But it was years ago.
SHAK just invented the American dream: more beef, less tax! Those gains looking tasty.
ROKU: $60 put exp 7/18, POOL: $250 put, exp 10/17, SHAK $100 put exp 8/15
CRWD PE ratio 860 TRIP PE ratio 765 DASH PE ratio 748 PLTR PE ratio 680 SHAK PE ratio 518 I'd look at over-valued stocks that has high volatility and high volume
ROKU, PYPL, SHAK, Z, MTN, IHG. I don't use IHG, MTN, or SHAK every day.
NYC and did you know there are 2 shake shacks like a hundred yards from one another in terminal C? SHAK
McDonalds news worries me for SHAK holders.
puts on SHAK? am I crazy here?
Anyone else looking pits for the restaurant industry? In particular SG and SHAK how have insane valuation, near zero profitability (especially SG), and among the first things people cut in economic uncertainty.
Short US equities. Can't screenshot my IBKR account anymore as they don't allow that. Short: ARM, COST, TSLA (obvs), SHAK, DASH, CAVA etc.
wow sounds very healthy, once I leave this tire repair shop I'm getting some coffee then CAVA later on... nah who am I kidding it'll probably be DPZ & SHAK, I've been eating healthy all week
See SHAK for what could come. Huge up day after earnings and give it all back the next day
Damn this looks like the perfect over valued play id have loved to short. Sad to have missed. Thoughts on CAVA and SHAK? Trading at high multiples and presumabky will have profits impacted from all the tariffs imports of low quality produce.
Thank u SHAK puts 
SHAK is a pos company btw. They management think they are the crap now!
Like SHAK, when the customers are there buy. When the customers dry up, sell Tesla.
Made 2k on SHAK, lost 5k on RDDT...
SHAK is an example of if you see a lot of customers, buy it.
Seeing SHAK jump 16% gives me hope that TXRH can someday have a breakout. For those who don’t know it’s a gem of a regional restaurant chain that’s expanding and has strong customer delight. It’s one of the few restaurants where patrons are finding incredible value.
If you were really going for the kill, SHAK calls would have been the most likely winner. I use EAT as a way to measure the potential earnings in SHAK and I'm not saying it works every time, but it has helped me in the last 2 reports.
Here is the tickers that will print: SHAK ASIX NICE UNIT
Nobody fucks with shake shack??? Burgers are fire. !Banbet SHAK 120 1D
Me too. Need SHAK too 😅
How about picking up some SHAK tonight ?
Buy some SHAK tonight
Do you like SHAK for earnings tomorrow ?
How fat are y'all? Calls on CAKE and SHAK?
TOST, WMT possibly SHAK COUPLE MORE
Im thinking ETST, SHAK, and XYZ
Only one move next week. SHAK calls. Fast casual has been crushing it lately and SHAK is inexplicably down from December high.
Which of these would Dave Ramsey go all in on? I would guess SHAK since he's a fat pig
Im eyeing SHAK personally. Earnings next week and sitting nice at the 200 EMA in an up trend. Nice history of bouncing off it too
I thought I was the only thing noticing the importance of developments like this for the past few years. It was easy to miss if you never associated with the lower earning classes and never left your house because of remote work. Most people have been so damn blind to the bifurcated economy that we’ve been living in post-COVID. Just look at how companies like NKE have performed the past two years vs DECK and ONON. The former markets shoes to traditionally poorer and middle class demographics while the latter brands cater to the higher earning/aspirational class. NKE has performed terribly, while DECK and ONON have grown exponentially. Another example would be more expensive, premium QSRs like CAVA and SHAK far outpacing the likes of MCD. The wealth gap is expanding rapidly and may never be filled at this point….it’s concerning.
I refuse to even check out. I imagine it's like SHAK.
NVDA should be valued like SHAK. Pay grade allowance, and same PE. NVDA is needed by EVERYONE
I'm holding it for maybe 25% more upside, but that's just because I like the chart. I'm terrible at assessing macrocap companies. I'm better with midcap companies like SHAK and Z.
https://preview.redd.it/nlpytvrzcb7e1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a45c14a7176b5ef6e39650a00eb2633b26188682 I'm up roughly $1.3m since Feb 2024. VKTX, MDGL, ROKU, PYPL, DOCU, SHAK, Z, VFC, the photo is a couple of days old. I don't look at my balance every day.
ROKU, SHAK, Z, VKTX. maybe PYPL. I just cashed out of DOCU, after a big profit.
There are many metrics in stock analysis and income statements to consider. Forward P/E- 153, Cash- 4.5B, Debt 254M, etc. The amount of shares listed sold by insiders is interesting, but the amount they hold is substantially higher. Theil- 100,335,000 Karp- 638,777,648 Many companies have wild P/E ratios CRWD- 714 SHAK- 814 CYBR- 1201
But they profit.. After everything is paid for they still are making money. And the growth is unreal. It's almost like Five Guys when they started. Except SHAK has been around for a while and so much of this world to expand to. Especially Asia. They can't get enough of the huge double patty burgers.
I've been in on SHAK for a while now. Low volume, little to no talk about it, but every one I go to is packed and everyone loves their food. Thanks for the technical part. I had no idea its still undervalued... Everyone points out the PE and I'm just like, growth baby.
Always check these to see how much each location is valued at. Currently SHAK market cap divided by locations, is $5.3m/per. CAVA is $20m/per. Just based on this, CAVA is a super risky investment, and SHAK seems decent
SHAK the dang thing is unstoppable. $200 seems inevitable.
I will say, its absurd what is happening in the casual dinning space. Chilis (EAT +207%), Cava (CAVA +323%), Shake Shack (SHAK +118%), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +93%)... Itd dumb returns, while dining out spending has been shrinking overall in the US... kinda crazy if you ask me. I just don't see how these returns can continue running personally.
My new thing is playing only pre-market earnings so that they can ruin my morning instead of afternoon. $SHAK puts loaded.
Anybody have any thoughts on $SHAK for earnings play
FOMOing about SHAK and WING 
Done really well on fast casual restaurants: CAVA, LOCO, CMG, SHAK and SG. Basically I’m too lazy to pack lunch I figure many others are the same. I also bought NVDA in 2017.
SHAK saved me. Also, ROKU, after hours, until it ebbed away. I was still down, overall. Glad I exited W stock, on Tuesday. I bought a little more GOOS.
Or Shake Shack (SHAK)
ThE consumer iS weak... DASH, SHAK WING Crush it.
Meanwhile, $SHAK is up 15% today
SHAK went up 15.67% Food industry is the new tech
$SHAK Shake Shack Soars on Guidance for First Positive Cash Since 2017 NEW YORK - Shake Shack Inc . (NYSE:SHAK) reported a significant revenue increase in its latest quarter, with figures surpassing analyst expectations, driving the company's shares up by 16%. The fast-casual restaurant chain announced a total revenue of $316.5 million, marking a 16.4% rise from the previous year and exceeding the consensus estimate of $314.59 million.
What about $TXRH, $SHAK, or $CAVA? I think the valuation are pretty high right now, but I wonder if they might do better long term....
Already down 20% since may. Looks like it could fill the gap back to... 80? and its already at 85 lol. >Competition Burger-Flipping: Burger King, McDonald's, and the rest of the fast-food gang aren't sitting idle. As they ramp up their game, SHAK could find itself squeezed out of the grill. Remember, the fast-food industry is brutal – there's no room for sentimentality, just dollars and cents. does anyone actually compare them to burger king or mcdonalds? i thought they were more like an in-n-out or a five guys. >Analyst Appetite Loss: Wall Street's finest are already cutting their earnings forecasts like a chef with a blunt knife. When the analysts start serving downgrades, expect the market to lose its appetite faster than you can say "double bacon deluxe." just makes it easier for a earnings beat.
I didn't read the earnings reports but according to etrade, "As indicated by the **Operating Margin**, 62% of SHAK's peers are able to control costs and expenses better."
I didn't read the earnings reports but etrade says, "As indicated by the **Operating Margin**, 62% of SHAK's peers are able to control costs and expenses better."
I lost so much money last week on CMG and SHAK calls this is the only way to get them back. Bless up.
SHAK puts will make me rich
Anyone else notice ALL the restaurant stocks all got hammered hard? Darden, WING, SG, CAVA, SHAK, CMG, SBUX… all got taken behind the woodshed… not a good sign.
I like your DD. Seems to track with real world trends. I also like $SHAK puts. Good luck!