SMB

gta0012

The better the best models get the more we find out the older models can handle more than originally thought. Like how mythos found all these new zero days and someone used an open source model and the open source model was able to find some of the same. I think we see something like this where larger models make smaller models more efficient. So in SMB or larger enterprise you may be right but I think those will be trained from a top model at the least.

Informal_Ad69

I’m an ex-employee of VYX TOST will never buy VYX as it’ll be blocked as a monopolistic move, but TOST absolutely kills VYX in the SMB market. Only area that VYX wins is in the enterprise customers (Starbucks, Walmart, Target, etc.) on the SCO business that TOST doesn’t have. Also the leadership and decisions being made over there are abysmal and I left because of them. Before the split Atleos was the cash cow that kept the now Voyix side afloat. They split because no one would by the company when they were together because Voyix is the parasite that ate all the profits and generated next to nothing. They are consistently losing their enterprise customers to the customers building their own solutions. So I don’t think anyone would buy them since their product cannot sell itself and only wins in one area, which TOST doesn’t care about.

Material-Degree-1386

No diss but is that max ganik from SMB

-whis

That’s not because the new software is good - that’s because your new implementation team deserves a Nobel prize. That or you guys had some extremely clear data and processes, if so more power to you. There’s a lot of shit software out there, don’t get me wrong, but most software sucks because the people using it are 10x more incompetent. I’m more on the SMB level but I can only imagine it’s worse at the enterprise and switching systems almost never fixed the problem at $10M or $1B

nomadjackk

Dealing with their SMB sales/support is a genuinely awful experience. They keep flat out lying to me and my clients

jijitalk

They don’t need to do anything. Most fortune 500 companies run on the Microsoft ecosystem and have absolutely zero plan on switching. They’ll just pay whatever Microsoft ask. As long as those companies keeps on growing, Microsoft will grow. Gsuite is not an option for those companies and most SMB eventually swaps out of whatever they were on to move into the Microsoft ecosystem once they’ve grown enough just to avoid the headache of security compliances if they need to do business with gouvernement entities .

rotinipastasucks

Yep that's Microsoft's model of locking in the big enterprises but there are more SMB out there with a bigger TAM.

healthy_mind_lady

Have you read their glassdoor reviews lately? The truth is right there. I used to work there, and there was a book written by someone who did as well. It was all hype, and their only hope was cornering the SMB market, like full on becoming THE CRM, somehow making their product synonymous with CRM like their arch nemesis Salesforce has. Moreover, with AI out and so many AI competitors, SMBs can use a combination of a standard office suite, some cheap AI tool at under $30 a month and.... gasp.... PEOPLE to do a way better CRM, sales, and marketing than HubSpot could ever give. The human touch is coming back as a real value add for SMBs to engage with customers, not bot flows and automated BS. Bonus points for these cheaper tools either being free or contractless, month-to-month options. HubSpot's potential market is tapped out. The economy is hurting for SMBs. Everyone wants to pay less, not more, as technology improves. HubSpot always expected customers to pay more for less and pay for bullshit add ons. They weren't really exponentially growing customer base with brand new businesses compared to overall market growth. It was all covid bump. Like do you even know or like the product/company or you just bought on hype and complete fluff pieces? And you gripped that falling knife for dear life while HubSpot execs sold their stock. LOL!! You just made a bad choice, gurl. 

MoltenMirrors

As a counterpoint : SaaS won't lose to AI. Shitty SMB enterprise SaaS will lose to AI. Like there is very little reason for 80% of single-purpose B2B SaaS apps to exist when Claude can build something tailored to your business's exact process and needs that doesn't need to scale to 100K internal users. The SaaS companies that survive will provide real world capabilities and platforms, not just CRUD apps with a bit of business logic sprinkled on top.

dagroup

MA crosses are not typically good trading setups. if you must use something like that, at least investigate SMB capital's 9 EMA & VWAP usage on lower time charts.

dagroup

try youtube with SMB Capital or you could join their inside access as I just did, but they offer lots more than just options. I will be concentrating on their 0DTE trading. btw.. trying to go from $1k to $10k in a week, I consider that gambling,

surmoiFire

MSFT deserve to die as they phase out SMB NTLM when the hardware cost is skyrocketing

dagroup

I don't care if he shows his gains or not, but that 10x amount is doable. That works out to $120k per month or $1.4 mil per year. Scaling is the key. At 6:1 buying power, scaling works really well. SMB Capital has numerous traders doing 7 and 8 figures net (50/50 payout) per year. Ross Cameron of Warrior Trading does 7 and 8 figures per year. SPY Day Trading does 8 figures per year. I tend to believe from watching, the Rumers do mid 7 figures per year . Maybe he's wanting to protect what he has and not give it back.

dagroup

check with SMB Capital to see if you can qualify.

modder9

SMCI was always a solid whitebox manufacturer for SMB. They will be around after the AI hype.

Wheelio

It's a fair risk, but they're in investment mode to expand beyond SMB restaurants and aggressively into enterprise (marriott, top golf, firehouse subs were recent earnings highlights) and into international locations and retail as well. On top of that, the restaurant TAM is still pretty huge in the US, so they have plenty of runway. I bet in a few years' time though they'll have to shed the restaurant-specific vertical theme from the the company story, albeit that will still be a large chunk of their business, and position as a generalized payments company. I'm going to be a long-term (bag)holder because it's still a relatively small % of my portfolio, and I do still have positive outlook.

dagroup

That really doesn't apply IF you've made correct decisions. By that I mean direction, price levels for potential reactions (confluence by Boroden), OTM options (SMB Capital). If your targets are only 10%, sure you're right, but with correct parameters 50% to 100% is highly possible. Most important is don't overtrade and don't be a pig.

Emotional-Breath-838

I work in the cybersecurity industry and I can share that it’s a good time to be here. The explosion of vibe coding and agentic AI and crypto wallets and ignorance of the dangers involved across multiple areas is a deep gold mine. Don’t get me started on social engineering attacks or what’s coming with hackable humanoid robots and self driving vehicles and quantum encryption and unbreakable quantum key cryptography. I’m working on a specialized DLP project right now while simultaneously consulting a startup on an automated anonymizer / deanonymizer solution that needs to become the front end of every SMB that yeets their spreadsheets filled with PII into cloud based AI yesterday. My expectation is that M&A action will inorganically inflate the valuations of firms with a viable customer base while AI will decrease a chunk of the costs of running operations.

Intelligent-You-6144

Bad stop loss, emotional trading, blah blah blah. I heard SMB gives their new traders 250k in capital with a daily SL of 500. Really puts it into perspective

Timely_Primary521

SMB's approach is solid but they also have the capital and infrastructure to recover from sizing mistakes. For retail the margin of error is way smaller. Interesting play on the earnings though — buying vol early before the move is priced in is underrated if you get the timing right.

dagroup

Would you be more inclined to accept answers from strangers or from a prop firm that has many 7 and 8 figure per year traders? If the later, then follow SMB Capital trader policy and size based on conviction. Find their info on their sites, plus you tube channel. today I took 2 earnings plays with mar 20 options. the long trade, GIS, 5 contracts, the short trade, LI, only 1. i bought early to get the volatility push if it materializes.

SaaSGrass

I work under a speciality products group for a Netskope competitor, I see CRWD winning deals literally everywhere from SMB to Enterprise and have for years. I have been buying CRWD like crazy on these dips and have no concerns.

mdutton27

Omg go watch SMB’s into course before you lose all your money.

timidtom

Ex-Salesforce employees have been creating CRM competitors for years now. This isn’t new. Do you think devs at Salesforce aren’t using AI to increase their output? It takes tens of thousands of people to build and maintain an enterprise CRM the size of Salesforce with or without AI. A team of 20 or 200 employees is not able to disrupt Salesforce anytime soon, or ever. The best they can do is take some SMB market share from Salesforce. If anything Salesforce has even more of a competitive advantage with AI since they have a shit ton of money and infrastructure to utilize AI. Also your last line “even the clients have this idea and want to make something that doesn't have to integrate with their systems because it's built with their systems in mind.” Makes literally zero sense and you clearly do not work in this space.

FreshLiterature

The reality of scale does it for them. LLMs already break down beyond any sort of moderate scale. Now try to plug it into a system that handles millions of discrete records and tens of millions or hundreds of millions of interaction records. Now lash every single critical, core business function to that system which means millions more interactions from integrations and needing to understand all of those dependencies. Context window limitations and LLM breakdown past certain context window lengths are hard limitations. Oh sure the entire SMB space is basically the wild west, but it already was the wild west because you don't have to worry as much about scale. It's also why most applications that are solely targeted at the SMB space have shit valuations. Salesforce doesn't target SMBs - they are an enterprise play. Could somebody come out with a genAI-based system that can handle real scale? Sure. So far nobody has even come close. As far as I have read the theory side of the house doesn't think LLMs can scale to where they would need to to be able to actually drive complex, scaled systems. Anyone here who uses LLMs with any regularity knows what I'm talking about. As a context window climbs to higher and higher token counts it starts to break down. Responses get dumber and consume more resources. There aren't really any ways around that. The larger the memory, the more complexity. The more complexity the more required compute. The more required compute, the faster your context window caps out.

nalbaru2

There’s a story being told loudly right now. It goes something like this: AI is coming to eat software. SaaS is dying. Why pay for a product when an agent will just do it for you? The Nifty Fifty of cloud is yesterday’s trade. Wall Street loves this story. It justifies reshuffling capital, generating trading fees, creating new ETFs, launching new IPOs, and keeping the financial media machine fed. It’s a great story for them. But there’s a quieter, truer story running underneath it — and it’s actually more exciting. The Marriage, Not the Murder Software and AI aren’t enemies. They’re the most natural partnership in the history of technology. Think about what software has always been: a way to take a complex human process — invoicing, scheduling, managing inventory, tracking a sales pipeline — and make it repeatable, affordable, and scalable. Software democratized capability. Before Salesforce, only the biggest companies could afford a structured sales operation. Before QuickBooks, small businesses were drowning in spreadsheets or paying expensive accountants. Software was the great equalizer. AI doesn’t destroy that mission. It accelerates it. What AI does to software is what electricity did to the factory floor. It doesn’t replace the factory. It makes everything inside it faster, smarter, and cheaper to run. The CRM still needs to exist. The ERP still needs to sit somewhere. The security platform still needs a data model and an interface and integrations. AI just makes all of those things dramatically more capable for dramatically less cost to build and maintain. The software doesn’t disappear. It compounds. The Billion Customers Nobody Is Counting Here’s the number that gets ignored in every breathless AI headline: there are hundreds of millions of businesses globally that have never used real software at all. A family-run logistics business in Lagos. A mid-sized manufacturing firm in Vietnam. A regional healthcare provider in rural Brazil. A growing retail chain in Morocco. These businesses are not debating switching from Salesforce to an AI agent. They are running on WhatsApp, paper ledgers, and Excel files from 2009. The global SMB market is staggering. There are roughly 400 million small and medium businesses worldwide. The overwhelming majority of them are dramatically underserved by technology. Not because they don’t want it — but because until recently, enterprise-grade software was simply out of reach. Too expensive to license. Too complex to implement. Too dependent on IT staff they couldn’t afford to hire. AI changes that equation completely. When AI collapses the cost of building, deploying, and supporting software — when onboarding goes from a six-month implementation project to a conversational setup — when a business owner in Nairobi can describe their workflow in plain language and have a working system by Friday — that’s not the death of software demand. That is the biggest expansion of the addressable market in software history. The companies panicking about AI eating their enterprise customers are missing the forest for the trees. The forest is full of people who have never had a tree. The Narrative Machine So why isn’t this the dominant story? Because it doesn’t serve the people who control the dominant story. The “AI kills software” narrative is useful. It’s useful for the hyperscalers who want to own the full stack and pull revenue away from independent software vendors. It’s useful for hedge funds who want to short legacy SaaS and rotate into AI infrastructure plays. It’s useful for the media because disruption is a better headline than “steady, broad-based global adoption.” And it’s useful for AI companies themselves, who need an aggressive growth narrative to justify their extraordinary valuations. None of this makes it true. The real dynamic is this: AI is rapidly reducing the cost of software creation, deployment, and support. That’s deflationary for the high-margin, high-complexity enterprise software that has been hoarding the value at the top of the market for thirty years. That specific segment will feel pressure. The Oracles and SAPs of the world who have been charging $2 million for an implementation that should cost $200,000 — yes, they have a problem. But the total demand for software capability in the world? That is going one direction, and it is not down. What This Looks Like in Practice The small textile exporter in Türkiye who finally gets a real inventory management system. The independent GP practice in Poland that can now afford a patient scheduling and records platform. The regional distributor in Southeast Asia who gets proper route optimization without a six-figure consulting engagement. These customers won’t be replacing software with AI. They’ll be accessing software because of AI. Lower costs. Simpler onboarding. Products that actually speak their language — sometimes literally. The platform that wins this won’t necessarily be the one with the most sophisticated AI model. It’ll be the one that figures out how to reach and serve the 80% of the global business market that technology has essentially ignored for the last four decades. That’s not a dying industry. That’s the opening chapter. The noise you’re hearing from the market right now is the sound of capital repositioning. Some of it is legitimate. Some of it is theater. But don’t let the theater make you miss the actual plot: software and AI are building something together, for a much larger audience than either has ever had before. The revolution won’t be loud. It’ll just quietly show up in a small business in a city you’ve never heard of, running better than it ever has, because someone finally gave it the tools it deserved.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

djscreeling

Yes and no. As a smaller SWE I can now easily approach a SMB and whip them up a CRM that is more than enough for them, and way cheaper in the long run. I'm about to start freelancing for this exact thing since that is what my career has become. No amount of "more" software can make tech debt go away. Once the code base passes a certain size, vibe coded or hand coded, it requires people with expensive salaries and specific degrees to architect the problem. Not even with a 10M token context could an LLM digest and intuit things an experienced human can. That is overhead that all the IBMs and Salesforces have to carry. Salesforce realized this and tried to get back their AI layoffs. The important part is that we SWE's coding projects are the next level of training for Anthropic. They will learn how we approach the problems for all the SMB's that isn't worth the time for Salesforce. Then one nebulous day in the not so distant future you can type in "Make me an CRM." A boom....You have your multiplayer excel document fit your 7-8 figure company for much much less. Get your LEAPS on the IPO. The rest is FUD and FOMO.

BigDummy1286

Seth Freudberg from SMB

kiwimancy

The Fama-French model is not a model portfolio. It is five portfolios, four of which are market neutral. How you should combine those together into one portfolio is out of their chosen scope. It's probably in scope for Ben Felix, but I have not watched his video. It also has nothing to do with US vs global. The Fama-Frech papers are constructed with a US stock universe. The model portfolio you quote only involves the market factor (RM-RF), size (SMB), and value (HML) from FF's original three factor model, not the other two factors in their five factor model, profitability and investment, which are now commonly grouped together into a quality factor. (It also doesn't include other factors that other researchers have categorized such as momentum and volatility, but you did not include those as a goal.) What is your goal? Do you want to maximize exposure to FF's five particular factors with retail instruments? Do you want to replicate whatever Ben Felix recommended to Canadians with US ETFs? Do you want our own recommendations for a global portfolio with tilts towards various factors? Something else?

Newskool3

This already exists today in the form of overseas dev shops cloning products. Enterprise and even SMB don’t go with them because of trust. AI generated codebases will only amplify this. However, I do think that Adobes and Salesforces of the world will adopt generative AI themselves to make their platforms even easier to customize, and it’s all in their walled garden of trust.

Main_Beautiful_204

Second SMB capital. They explain the fundamentals, concepts and strategies very simply. And incorporate that with trying actual transactions will enhance your experience/expertise. So I only trade options with protection. And chart for direction for best result. Lastly, I take profits in the 40-80% range, depending on market condition/situation.

miltonthecat

You overestimate the complexity of most SMB apps and the difficulty in replacing them, and underestimate SMB tolerance for slop.

bright_sunshine19

Even SMB’s won’t be doing that, would they focus on running their core business or now focus on writing, implementing and managing code. You have to hire someone and use AI (not free) to write code, implement it and manage it. All that costs money, on top of it the risk.

greyfell_red

I’ll let Gemini explain why you’re wrong. 😊 This whole argument is built on massive blind spots and a few convenient strawmen. The author fundamentally misunderstands *how* AI threatens the SaaS business model. Here is exactly where the logic falls apart: ### The SMB Delusion Calling SMB revenue a "rounding error" is completely out of touch with reality. Massive tech companies—Shopify, HubSpot, Intuit, Atlassian, Mailchimp—are built almost entirely on the backs of small and medium-sized businesses. Even for enterprise behemoths like Microsoft or Salesforce, the mid-market and SMB tiers are huge revenue drivers. If AI gives smaller businesses the ability to spin up cheap, automated micro-tools instead of paying for subscriptions, a massive chunk of the SaaS sector's total market cap goes up in smoke. ### The "Vibe Coding" Strawman The author sets up a false dichotomy: either an enterprise buys a massive SaaS platform, or their CEO tries to build a custom CRM over the weekend using a prompt. That’s not the actual threat. The real threat is the hyper-efficiency of internal engineering. Enterprises already have dev teams. If AI makes those internal developers 10x or 100x more productive, the "build vs. buy" math changes instantly. A bank doesn't need to rely on a hallucinating AI agent; their own security-cleared, SOC2-compliant dev team can just build and maintain the necessary tools in a fraction of the time and cost it used to take. They don't need to outsource the complexity if AI just automated the complexity. ### The Seat-Based Death Spiral This is the most glaring logical flaw in the essay. The author points to OpenAI and Anthropic charging $25–$30 a seat as proof the model is fine, completely ignoring that their real enterprise scale is built on API consumption (charging for compute/tokens), not user seats. More importantly, traditional SaaS is a tax on human headcount. You pay per seat for Salesforce, Zendesk, or Slack. If an enterprise uses AI agents to automate 80% of its customer support, they don't need 100 Zendesk licenses anymore—they need 20. The AI doesn't need a software license. The SaaS vendor's revenue collapses, even if the enterprise technically never stops using the product. ### Margin Compression SaaS companies have historically justified their massive recurring fees because building reliable, secure software from scratch was historically incredibly hard and expensive. AI lowers the barrier to entry to the floor. When building software becomes cheap, margins compress. Why pay an incumbent vendor $500k a year for project management software when a hungry new startup can use AI to build the exact same secure, HIPAA-compliant tool and undercut them by 80%? **The Bottom Line:** Wall Street isn't worried that global banks are going to start "vibe coding." They're worried that AI destroys the pricing power, the defensive moats, and the human-headcount-growth loops that made SaaS a cash cow in the first place.

dagroup

fwiw.. The prop firm, SMB Capital, has a scanner they use to find trades that fit their different strategies intraday, but ALL of their traders do not automate, they watch the charts for the intraday setups after the alerts. Not recommending buying anything or joining them only sharing info.

dagroup

Seth Freiberg at SMB Capital disclosed a great strategy used by their prop traders in a YT video. The strategy is buying deep ITM long term or leap calls where price follows the stock around 90%. Then selling the same number calls 1 month out that are OTM enough ( S&R) that they shouldn't exercise. Watch the video for the specifics, but you should be able to have 12 incomes per year. hope this helps.

dagroup

looks simple enough to understand. what strategy are you programming in, or is it more along the lines of SMB's radar?

Every-Actuator-6996

Shopify beat revenue forecasts, e-commerce demand still strong. Bullish signal for growth + SMB resilience. Now it’s about margins and valuation.

Unusual_Onion_983

I think the industry with consolidate around CrowdStrike (nobody ever got fired for picking them) and Microsoft (for when barely good enough is good enough!). SMB and cost conscious will go to other players.

Craptcha

Microsoft 365 with Entra Captive ecosystem, standard for most midsized and large businesses around the world. Huge market share of SMB’s too. No direct competition for the whole ecosystem including Windows endpoints and strong support for mobile devices. That’s the moat. Everything else builds around that. If we’re in Microsoft with Entra, then lets stick to Azure to simplify compliance and access control. Now where do we get our AI if we need governance and control over our data? well lets pick the one within our existing platform even if its not perfect. It’s a massive competitive advantage. Google and mobile device OS may have challenged that position in 2008-2012 but now their hold on the business market is stronger than ever. The only real threat is Trump scaring away other countries about data and software sovereignty.

cowboycookie1337

First time SMB? (Sucking my balls)

DoubleFamous5751

YouTube has lots of great channels and information for free, thoughtful money, excess returns, IDB, SMB Capital are great. Read market wizards and Peter Lynch’s books

n2_throwaway

To steelman their argument though (I don't necessarily believe it myself, just trying to think through the other side): SMBs have much lower auditing and compliance requirements. Instead of a world where 3-5 eng in house build something like this, instead think of a small consultancy that uses AI tools to build a custom one-off SaaS. They can offer limited support on an ongoing basis because the complexity of the software is low and AI can make most of these changes. This only works because of how simple this software is for SMBs. I'm not convinced though. For one, most SaaS revenue comes from enterprise, not SMBs. It's well known that because of how simple SMB requirements are and how light their budgets are that they just can't sustain the margins that a Salesforce or a Twilio need to keep generating revenue. Moreover SMB has been drawing down their spend over the past several quarters due to tariffs, inflation, and other economic uncertainty indicators leading to our current "K-shaped economy" headlines. This should already be priced in for plenty of cashflow models at SaaS companies. If anything a thesis on how SMBs can now get cheap, custom software makes me think that small caps are the way to go rather than divesting from SaaS.

MitchCurry

I don't see enterprise or even SMB SaaS companies falling to the same fate as a company that catered to helping students study (cheat). The former seem exponentially more sticky and difficult to replace than the latter. I've been putting my money where my mouth is though so if I'm wrong, it'll hurt my retirement.

ZamianX

And when it breaks and AI cant figure it out? When Iavas and cves pop up? AI is not even close to being to able to handle these kind of things at scale. SMB still need professional level software and that doesn't exist from 100% ai generated code. And no one with a brain would be feeding payroll/employee data to a random ai or having ai do your taxes, etc. This is like saying Shopify will kill CRM because SMB can make websites on there now

Crazy_Donkies

It's funny that I'm getting downvoted despite first hand experience as an investor and owner. All of you downvoting me have worked hard to build a kingdom around your expertise.  You've worked hard to exclaim what you do is "important" and "hard."   Well.  It WAS!   Now it's going to slowly die, week by week, from under you.   What you "enterprise" developers don't realize is, all that most small and mid-sized businesses need (which I was clear to define as SMB), is a basic app that does the same thing over and over.  Thats auditable.  Which can run for nearly free on Azure.  This includes HRIS, CRM, and inventory systems, and more Furthermore. Listen read this really carefully:   A good accountant could run a $10mm arr business in Excel.  A good sales vp could run a 10 person sales organization in Excel.  BUT THEY DIDNT because a CRM and INTUIT made sense from an ROI perspective.  It WASNT worth the time to do it custom.  (Remember people moved to SaaS from custom!). NOT ANY MORE.  As I said, AI has now made the big structural shift to making custom software for SMBs very easy and cost effective.   Which is the linchpin for your superiority complex.  70%+ of people work for SMBs.  These people are presently paying per seat licenses in SAAS companies.  But unfortunately, AI is making "mail order software" accessible for a SMB.   THERE GOES A MONSTER % OF REVENUE. LOL, the idea of "technical debt" in a small or mid-sized business is laughable. They are not google or 3m.  You can run the entire tech and software stack of a $50mm arr business with 3 or 4 people.  Fewer when AI takes those jobs as well. This is why intuit, CRM, NOW and other hr software companies are dropping.   Smart investors see it.  And as soon as you ostriches take your head out of the sand.  You will see it too. Sleep good.

Crazy_Donkies

Structural.  AI will eat SMB SaaS alive.  2 guys and 2 days can vibe code an HRIS, CRM, Inventory, parts of ERPs, or a project management app that's more than sufficient for small and mid-sized businesses. (2 days or so each). Each built for the organization.   Licenses for HRIS are $25 to $35 a head.  Claude can hit the spec for CRM in a few minutes. Then customization and documentation adds more time. It's coming and only a matter of time before it's more accessible.  I see work for hire vibe coding small companies making a killing very soon. 

Maximum-Side-9391

Without knowing how Reddit does ads other than being fairly certain the cost can be much less than google or FB especially if you are SMB then I think SMBs are missing a huge opportunity if they aren't allocating digital ad spend to Reddit. Even for enterprise companies where it is hyper competitive space they should be spending on Reddit. They just need to improve how ads are seen by users who don't pay to not see ads. Right now it seems to much like the Nextdoor approach where it's hard to tell what is ad and what is not in the posts when you scroll. You have more insight than me because I don't do marketing and don't work at enterprise company but I do work for SMB who does Omni channel approach and know from conversations with CEOs they care about what people say on Reddit more than Google reviews which is considered gold standard by a majority of the retail service industry

SavedSaver

SMB IS a legit channel, I have followed them long enough to see the value The dark haired guy usually introducing the videos is making it sound mythical Btw I have options floor trading experience going back to the late 1970's.

soleil---

The YouTube page is just that, a YouTube page. It won’t get you a job nor will you make a fortune with their strategies. But yes, the strategies are legit, and while SMB has a high turnover & low profitability for the avg person joining their “academy”, they do have some very successful prop traders. I watched most of their vids just to get a basic concept of a trading strategy, and then researched the strat much more to successfully implement it

JJdante

Search YouTube for covered calls and position sizing until you find one that makes sense to you. I like the channel SMB Capital for learning. Watch a lot, you are learning the hard way with a lot of money to most people, including me.

No_Mode_3746

Ramp won years ago when Brex abandoned SMB. Crazy how much of a head start they had and still lost the race

goosen19

All SaaS is not created equal of course, and I probably wouldn’t put my money in a stock that isn’t a system of record. Project management software, to your point, has a much shallower moat than a CRM/NOW/WDAY. But for the sake of the argument, per seat pricing models would not be sustainable if HC declines by 80% (which isn’t likely to happen). As I mentioned earlier, consumption based pricing models have been around for years, and the industry is shifting more products under that model today. For example Salesforce with Agentforce credits. In regard to your project management example, that pricing would likely also shift to a consumption model or something similar - where instead of employees that are creating value, it’s AI agents that are taking action and the Mondays/Asanas are charging per token per action or prompt. Your argument around vibe coding leading to a risk of displacement I think is flawed. While there may be some risk for niche SMB products, for enterprise software it’s a whole lot more than just code. It’s the expertise, trust, ecosystem integrations, cybersecurity, SLAs and a whole lot more. Those are all areas that require a significant amount of investment, and choosing to take all of that on in house would introduce a huge amount of risk.

goosen19

All SaaS is not created equal of course, and I probably wouldn’t put my money in a stock that isn’t a system of record. Project management software, to your point, has a much shallower moat than a CRM/NOW/WDAY. But for the sake of the argument, per seat pricing models would not be sustainable if HC declines by 80% (which isn’t likely to happen). As I mentioned earlier, consumption based pricing models have been around for years, and the industry is shifting more products under that model today. For example Salesforce with Agentforce credits. In regard to your project management example, that pricing would likely also shift to a consumption model or something similar - where instead of employees that are creating value, it’s AI agents that are taking action and the Mondays/Asanas are charging per token per action or prompt. Your argument around vibe coding leading to a risk of displacement I think is flawed. While there may be some risk for niche SMB products, for enterprise software it’s a whole lot more than just code. It’s the expertise, trust, ecosystem integrations, cybersecurity, SLAs and a whole lot more. Those are all areas that require a significant amount of investment, and choosing to take all of that on in house would introduce a huge amount of risk.

MasterpieceOk8986

Suspicious Logic in RBC's Reddit Report: Why would an analyst focused on 'SMB ad checks' suddenly mention the Google Al contract renewal date? It's easy to miss, but in the middle of an ad platform analysis, he suddenly drops a prediction about the Al training scraping contract- something completely unrelated to the topic. This is a blatant hit piece designed to tank the stock right before a big move. Think about it

Ginga_Ninja24

Learn Market Breadth, SMB Capitals VolD Ratio video is informative. Get familiar with price action on one ticker. I recommend SPY (U.S. market itself) or one of the Fortune 500 companies encompassed by SPY, like Nvidia for example. If you wanna fuck around with naked directional options trades try ATM 0DTE contracts. Get approved for higher level options trading like writing contracts and collecting premium on spreads so you can make money on directionally neutral days. Lastly im retarded and you shouldn’t take my advice

ear2theshell

> recently saw a video from SMB Capital on their credit spread strategy Which one? They have a few

eldowns

I’ve been selling 0DTE SPX spreads for a couple years now, but I recently saw a video from SMB Capital on their credit spread strategy that I found interesting and have been using for about a month with great success. Essentially, let the morning volatility pass (~2 hours), then sell the .20 delta spread (1 strike wide) opposite the side of VWAP (I hate indicators, but I get it). I’ll combine this with general price/structure reading for conviction as well as selling the other side as well. Stops on everything all the time, move stops to break even as quickly as possible, then walk away. The win rate is absurd - somewhere around 90% like you’ve experienced.

boringexplanation

Meh, I think some owners of small businesses deserve it. Not special treatment like a separate capital gains tax but treated as income as a result of countless hours in their startup phase. Many of today’s SMB millionaires got there by paying themselves less than minimum wage for years. The trade off is that they have full equity in their business. Those types of owners equity shouldn’t be considered “passive income”

Terrible_Champion298

* What helped you become consistently profitable? Understanding PROBABILITY. Winning more than I lose. Taking a smaller loss earlier, (i.e. admitting I was wrong). Keeping things simple. Consistent involvement and solid work ethic; show up on time and be prepared. * What should I focus on learning next? The option Greeks. Always. Primary focus: Delta, IV, and Theta and how they interact with each other. * Are there any up-to-date resources (books, courses, channels, or frameworks) you’d recommend? The age of the material is largely irrelevant; avoid the overly complex. The simplest explanations are best. An book often revised that is still frequently recommended for options trading is OPTIONS VOLATILITY & PRICING -Natenberg. He includes yet distills down complex matters in a relatable way, and your primary focus there would be absorbing and practicing with the information on the Greeks first, the rest whenever you wish. SMB Capital has many YouTube videos for multiple experience levels. Wade through those for things that interest you.

fre-ddo

Tastylive Mikes Whiteboard and SMB capital are a good place to start.

Prudent-Corgi3793

There are plenty of academics skeptical about the FF5 model and other anomalies. For instance, Aswath Damodaran has seen no effect of the size premium since the early 1980s, when it was first observed by Banz. Andrew Lee has not seen any factor premium observed out of sample. The data from the Fama-French data library suggests that. After the FF3 model was established, the size premium has been zero in the US and positive but nearly zero (not statistically significant) in Developed ex-US and Emerging markets. It's been strongly negative in the US and negative in Developed ex-US and Emerging after the FF5 model was established. The investment premium has similarly been negative in the US (and essentially zero in Developed) after it was introduced as a factor in the FF5 model. I'm inclined to believe Damodaran's interpretation that "you have to do something to get something" for these factors. In any case, the smaller companies in the S&P 500 would still be considered large cap using the break points for Fama and French. There are better ways to decrease exposure to the Mag 7, if you were inclined to do so, than to use the RSP. There are much better ways to tilt towards SMB if you believed in the factor premium.

pagalvin

I like SMB capital. They don't seem to be selling anything. The videos I've seen are purely educational.

ScarfingGreenies

I would agree but I think there's a caveat here because some SMB owners have 0 business acumen and are just grifters taking the long way on a Get Rich Quick scheme. <- Beauty business owners, especially the unlicensed ones operating off Instagram and TikTok clientele are a **perfect** example of this. They offer a significant reduction in traditional services but still at a premium markup, unfair and excessive rules framed as "policies", hostile customer service, and antagonistic marketing aimed at appealing to customers' egos rather than quality service (i.e. "book with me if you ain't a broke bitch" aka I want folks unlikely to call me out on my bullshit pricing). All others with some integrity looking to do honest work and make reasonably healthy margins are likely to develop a loyal customer base assuming they're not entering a saturated market.

InvestingPrime

**Wow, you really don’t get it, do you? Let me make this painfully simple.** SMB makes a ton of money from selling courses. I’m talking about the $5,000 trader courses, the $10,000 DNA of Active Trader mentorships, the subscriptions, the bootcamps, the “coaching,” all of it. That is their main revenue stream. Everyone knows this. And here’s the part you keep ignoring. SMB is directly connected to Kershner, and they use **Kershner’s** technology, not their own. If SMB is supposedly this rich and successful trading powerhouse, why aren’t they building and using their own platform? Why are they relying on another firm’s software? Because they did a joint venture together. The companies are tied at the hip. Now here’s what happens next. Kershner charges them to use that software. Kershner profits even when traders lose. They make money from licensing their platform, charging for infrastructure, charging execution fees, and taking a piece of SMB’s desk profits. They do not need winning traders. They do not care if you blow up. You can lose money all month and the firm still gets paid. That is the setup. This is not some deep secret. It’s a well-known business model. It’s called the Prop Firm Education Loop. Everyone knows about it except you, apparently. Here’s how it works. 1. The education company sells expensive courses. “Learn to trade like a pro,” and they charge you $5,000 to $15,000. 2. They imply you might get hired by their prop desk if you do well. 3. The prop desk is partnered with the same company that sells the courses. 4. The prop desk uses software from a partner firm that is financially tied to the whole operation. 5. And here’s the punchline. The education company, the prop firm, and the software provider all make money **before any trading happens**. This is not conspiracy. This is literally how these businesses work. You’re the only one pretending not to see it. No, I never paid anyone for ANY training or ANYTHING like that. Because REAL TRADE FIRMS DON'T CHARGE FOR TRAINING. Ever wonder why those companies you mention are never hiring people for other positions? BECAUSE THEY AREN'T REAL. Go to someone like Citadel Securities.. type it in. Job openings like crazy.. of people for REAL positions they need to fill. Because they actually trade.. they aren't selling seminars.

InvestingPrime

No it is because I've seen it from the inside myself that I know what BS looks like. I'm showing you real postings from the company on their own website. You are the one talking about amazing traders no ones ever heard of. Amazing traders don't go to prop firms. Because they don't make enough money off trading to stay alive. Which is why prop firms offer **courses or software** for sale. Everyone knows the typical prop companies like Jane Street, DRW, Jump Trading, Kershner, SMB, etc. Oh look! you mentioned TWO of them. What a SHOCK. It isn't. Do you know why. Because Kershner sells software.. Everyone knows of the garbage system **Gr8trade**. And who makes that system? Oh that's right! Kershner! And who licenses this software and pays for it? OH WAIT! ITS SMB! Do you see where this is going bro? It's a funnel system of scam. Anyone that has done real trading knows it, and avoids those companies like the plague. One company sells courses educational courses for $5000/year. The other company which is connected to them (even you said this) sells the software to them. scam.

InvestingPrime

I'm not angry at all. Job listings that the company you are talking about put out. Not me. Oh and it isn't a "job listing" that is how they advertise training. It is a scummy bait and switch. You call them thinking you are going to get to be a professional trader. Then they say well of course you are.. but only after you purchase our training for 2 years. What is it exactly? The same training they offer here: [https://www.smbtraining.com/blog/smb-trading-summit-nyc-2026](https://www.smbtraining.com/blog/smb-trading-summit-nyc-2026) Do you need for me to continue? SMB is well known for this type of thing. I think you are under the impression you mentioned some unknown company no ones ever heard of. When you live/work in the sector you learn of these companies. Again, they sell training and do a bunch of seminars for $$. Go to the twitter page/X - What is the first thing mentioned. Oh look a Webinar! more sales. More drawing on charts. More fake. You won't see real trading firms doing this.

InvestingPrime

Yeah, Okay. SMB's training program is how they make money. A constant churn of in and out to gain capital. I get it, you thought you were into something real. IT isn't though, its BS. Again, those who can't "teach". I understand, you want to believe it is real.. but it isn't. I was in the same situation. Look on INDEED right now, they have a position open in Miami. What does it say? # New/Developing Equity Trader- Miami What is your career path? **New traders will spend two years training and trading**, developing essential trading skills and building a trading playbook that makes the most sense to them. New traders will also be expected to build competence in quantative trading, starting with simple alerting scripts in python and moving onward to fully-fledged models for diverse trading environments. SMB Capital is excited to offer a new and unique opportunity for new and developing traders to be a part of our **Proprietary Trader Training Program** in Miami, FL. **(What they don't tell you?)** SMB Capital does not pay for training; **the firm charges aspiring traders** to participate in its training and education programs. While the company's website suggests it provides training, capital, and other resources for successful traders, the initial training for new or developing traders is a paid program where the trader covers the cost.  I'm sorry bro, but you fell for it. They got you. They are a SALES company. Selling you a TRAINING program that is "proprietary" to them. Basically, they will have some kind of silly system they say works.. but it doesn't. because they never do.

TraderZones_Daniel

Ok. I wasn’t gonna say it, but your original comment made me think you’re just pulling things out of your arse. Now I’m certain. SMB’s training program, is not something I’m familiar with other than that it exists and I think it’s probably unnecessary. KTG and SMB each have dozens of successful traders who never went through any of that. How do I define “successful”. varies because some are more skilled than others and have different goals. It ranges from a couple dozen traders making between $200k-$1m a year for a decade, up to traders making $10-50m/yr with lifetime earnings over $100m. One of those started his own hedge fund. Maybe you worked somewhere, but it really doesn’t sound like it. I’ve shared more than enough without getting into the firm’s and other traders’ business secrets.

InvestingPrime

Yes, USA. The amount of time you've done something doesn't mean you are good at it. All of these pay to play firms have some random dude there that's been there for 20 years trading equities that still isn't even profitable. SMB is a joke. It is a "those who can't, teach". What would you qualify as a "best trader" and why would you "never heard of them" Again, more bs. Smoke and mirrors.. fantasy ghost of people trying to glorify it or something. In reality, it's boring. very boring. and repetitive. no ones running around the office slapping hands. there's not a bunch of people sitting around waiting for you to get a fill so they can freak out.

TraderZones_Daniel

Can you elaborate on what you mean by “commercial trading”? Was this in the US? I agree with some of what you said, not all of it. Not gonna pick it apart though. Source: I’ve spent 6 years trading with KTG, and through there and SMB (sister co, of sorts) I’ve traded alongside the best traders you’ve never heard of.

bloodpriestt

*gif of jpow bouncing on the koopa in SMB 3-1*

ComplexProgrammer992

Right now 17% of my portfolio is wrapped up in Sofi stock that I got assigned after selling a put. The rest are options. In my Roth IRA I am just holding LEAPS. In my margin account I'm selling diagonals (poor mans covered call with a week out expiration and ~30 delta) along with Iron Butterflies and Iron Condors. If your new to options I found SMB capitals youtube is the best resource. Have a great thanksgiving!

wallstreetdata

I'm not sure how the mods in this subreddit feel about linking to stuff, so here's the list copied from my profile from a few days ago. Bed Bath & Beyond would be on this list too, after a handful of directors filed purchases yesterday: \_\_ Enough backstory, here are the insider purchases (in the last month) at the companies with the largest 1m dips prior to the purchases. I also excluded pharma/biotech Arq Inc $ARQ * environmental tech co - down 50% in the last month due to significant delays and operational issues with the ramp * up of its new granular activated carbon (GAC) production line. * CEO, CFO, and a director all bought * first purchases since May Thryv Holdings $THRY * SMB marketing software company * down 50% in the last month due to deceleration in organic SaaS rev growth and EPS miss * CEO and director both bought * CEO also bought in August and is down 50% BTCS Inc $BTCS * operates cloud-based validator nodes for ETH * down 40% on EPS miss, share dilution, and poor earnings quality * CEO bought * first purchase since 2022 (continue in next comment)

Popboat

How does the wealth distribution have anything to do with me hearing it will be the future ? Afaik wealthy corporations and individuals are dor the most part playing the fossil fuels propaganda, not the SMB narrative ???

Weak_Wrangler6396

I am an adobe holder but I am starting to get concerned on their future. Their 2024 10-K filing shows that their revenue base is segmented in 1. Digital Media $15.85MM (75%), from which Creative cloud is $12.68MM and document cloud $3.18MM. 2. Digital Experience $5.37MM (25%). 3. Publishing and advertising $0.275MM (1%). Most of customers of creative cloud segment are freelancer, individuals and SMB. That's the segment most attacked by Figma/Canva/Affinity etc. While Document cloud and digital experience are mostly Enterprises, that's where they currently have a moat and high pricing power... Their revenue seems to be increasing thanks to their pricing power, which is eroding, not due to capturing higher TAM. IA narrative is BS though, true concerning narrative is competitive position in Digital Media segment.

pagalvin

Covered calls on Ford are easy and low risk. That will get you rolling, get you some experience and get you on your way. But you need to really learn things from a theory perspective too. Videos, books, whatever works for you. There's a lot of good content. SMB Capital on YouTube has good stuff and isn't too preachy. Many of the content creators are too invested in their own personal approach. Avoid that in the near term, maybe forever :) Good luck!

RemyMill

diversify. SMB/companies are being equipped with superpowers (AI infrastructure) helping them eat up market space.

traderswapnilk

Books : Trading Options Greeks (By Dan Passarelli) Go through Various Communities on reddit. YouTube : SMB capital

newbirdhunter

I’ve watched a multitude of options videos from Fidelity, Schwab, SMB Capital and what seems like an endless stream of other channels. Almost all discuss the Greeks as individual elements to some degree but none have put any video together that gives the viewer more than superficial understanding of scenarios like this. Have you taken a course that teaches all the elements at play in a scenario like this that a trader should be recognizing and evaluating? I would pay for that course.

jamesdmoran

Today's ADP data looks potentially weak for PAYC's SMB customers going into earnings tonight: [https://flatcircle.ai/?ticker=PAYC](https://flatcircle.ai/?ticker=PAYC)

Ok_Cry7572

That's why I said estimated earnings in post so we can only guess Methodology for Contract Sizes (Conservative) $500B+ (Mega-Cap)-$100M – $300M-Hyperscalers, AI leaders → full-stack AIP + multi-year $100B – $499B-$40M – $100MEnterprise giants → 2–3 use cases, 3–5 years $10B – $99B- $10M – $40M-Mid-large → 1–2 use cases, 2–4 years < $10B, $2M – $10M-SMB/pilot → bootcamps → small

ChangeUserNameOMG

(1)There is this guy who buys a put and a call before critical earnings releases. He buys both at the same strike date, same strike distance from current price and both otm still. He says what you need is a strong enough move so that at minimum u must get 100% profit at any of them, and this way u r almost or at breakeven. Logic: if can cut loss on the losing side, great. If u can’t, then the other option contract profit has already covered the loss. Now u either profited or at breakeven, once an earnings is released u can already see the results and keep the winner and cut the loser. Keep it going above 100% profit and then take that profit. In theory that’s assuming put and call are the same price, however realistically, u might wanna consider the price and ur cost of buying each options sides. (2) check SMB capital YouTube channel and look for options trading strategies, they are very viable with practical risk.

qwerty-mo-fu

SMB on YouTube. Free, excellent

traderswapnilk

You can try SMB capital courses, they have one in one mentorship program. One of my friends has taken this course and so far he is getting good results

qwerty-mo-fu

Watch SMB trading YouTube video on spreads. I’m in no way linked to them, but they’re great videos and helped me. I sell spreads on spx

Leading_Cow_6021

I’ve seen a few people try to automate that SMB setup. It can work for small consistent gains, but the edge is thin once you factor in commissions, fills, and overnight risk. Most bots I’ve seen either overtrade it or miss exits because of data lag. I ended up skipping the DIY route and went with a **copy-trading setup** instead. Using **Advanced Auto Trades** right now, it’s non-custodial and run by a verified trader, so your account just mirrors their trades automatically. It’s been more hands-off and transparent than trying to code my own overnight bot.

Fluid-Dealer-3046

1) Low risk is a function of size relative to total account value. Risk is never off the table no matter the strategy. Performance is really your underlying question. *Are there any strategies that outperform cover calls? Sure. In my opinion long calls and long puts out perform CC if you have directional edge with tight stop controls. 2) iron condors/butterflies/spreads produce mathematical negative expectancy without serious active management. All of these blow up without directional edge. All Greeks are second order, Delta aka Direction is the king daddy of all. Also if you are not customizing your spreads you are selling and buying out of the box money losers. Brokers/MM set those prices to skew in their favor not ours. 3) Look up these channels on YouTube, some of their videos detail long strategies. Theta Profits, Options with Ravish, ZeroDayMark, SMB capital is best for short term trades. I’m not affiliated with any one of them. Don’t know them personally nor was I paid to share. I just found some other their content helpful. My question to you….what job do you have that always you so much leeway to trade?

xTHEGRASSMANx

I learned on YouTube personally. Not my favorite channel, but “Investing with Henry.” Taught me a lot. Also “SMB Capitol.” They will teach you everything you need to know about options.

Busy-Estimate-2160

EQUK likely beat - stable guide, ag/SMB hampers, integr benefits

Madismas

Sooo, I have this software idea for SMB's. Wanna gamble on me and become my partner lol.

Fragrant_Rip9699

Learn IV. If implied volatility is up, look to sell spreads. If down, consider buying. Earnings IV crush. GEX SPX butterflies. Look online or on YouTube for small account options strategies. SMB Capital is a good channel.

KillAura

Note: AVEEX has a 5M min investment, but AVEM is a close equivalent Also, DEMGX tilts towards small caps so AVES is the better comparison In short: 1. if you want SMB & HML, go DEMGX 2. if you just want HML, go AVES 3. if you want the most minor tilt, go AVEM

PinPsychological82

Great points! Per their earnings call, the number of SMB advertisers has grown significantly (wish I could find the statistic). SMB revenue was reported to be 60% of total ad revenue in Q4 2024 though. To the second point, Reddit did mention that they have seen great success with their AI algorithms and ARPU has increased drastically. They are making strides with new algos and ad products.

BanditoBoom

There are basically 2 core ways, in my opinion: 1: Look at the obvious stuff that EVERYONE ELSE is looking at, and wait for the market to give you an opportunity. Example: Google basically all year until August. Had you simply ignored the bears and did some research you’d see the clear and unmistakable value. If you ONLY bought Google after liberation day, and kept buying every dip…you easily beat the market this year. 2: You gotta look where nowhere else is looking, find the value, and keep buying and wait for the market to recognize what you see. Example: Atari being up 50% in the final year of what will be a CLEARLY successful turn around. Mueller Industries being up line 30% - 40% this year since April with over a billion dollars of net cash on the balance sheet, debt free. Digital Ocean since April. Gitlab getting into gear. ISSC was a big winner for me this year. Lumen Technologies in a turnaround could be huge. Looking at KFS changing their operating model in 2017 and now starting to reap the rewards. Very interesting niche play in SMB Service roll ups. There is value everywhere (some traditional “value” and others what I call “deep value”). What are the common denominators? 1: You HAVE to understand the “why” behind your thesis. WHY are you making the bet? 2: Regardless of option 1 (wait for the market to give you an opportunity to buy) or option 2 ( wait for the market to recognize what you see)….you have to be patient.

Pindar920

I’ll read the book you recommend and check out the SMB Capital videos. Thank you!

JerryFletcher70

As a book reference, The Bible of Options Strategies by Guy Cohen is one I like. There are also a lot of good YouTube creators out there but be wary of people selling stuff. Just watch the ones explaining basic, like covered calls, cash secured puts, and basic debit/credit spreads. SMB Capital has a series that does good walkthroughs of basic options techniques. I think options are a good tool even for traditional buy and hold investors in entering positions through a cash secured put and exiting through a covered call even in managing a long term portfolio. Learning covered calls and cash secured puts and putting them together in a simple wheel strategy on a stock that you like is a good way to learn the basics. Some of the brokerages will also let you paper trade, which means practicing without real money to get a feel for how it works and how to manage option positions. There is always an element of gambling to options and you have to recognize that side of it. What’s helpful is that you have a lot of variables that let you get the exact risk to reward profile and time duration that you want. You can have a very high chance of winning a small amount of money, a very low chance of winning a large amount of money and everything in between. And that’s why having a lot of capital helps, because you can afford to have lots of diverse bets on the board and not be out of the game if you hit a bad stretch. The more money you have, the more room for error you have.

WildEstablishment267

Whats your opinion on recent drop. Adtech market is soft I am hearing, thanks to tariffs. Does MGNI still have juice. Their recent aquisition is more of a good to have for now but not sure of real implications. This can def hurt Trade Desk as indy agencies and SMB business adopt the tech and pipe spends outside of TTD

AppearsInvisible

\+1 on projectfinance, his videos were very helpful in helping me understand early on. SMB I have watched a lot of as well and I think their basic instruction is solid--when they talk about strategies I think they sometimes leave out some of the possible outcomes and it is presented to sound like easy money. I always gave them a pass for that as I'm sure it helps with their youtube marketing. I also took the free courses from TD Ameritrade--figured if I did well there it might help me with getting my options approval. Not sure if those are still around after the Schwab merger.

Busy_Print6699

100%, SMB capital has some great videos with step by step walk throughs.