TMF

CatsalsoCookies

That said, I'm hugely down on my TMF calls tho

TaxGuy_021

Been selling at the money calls on TMF since last December. Fairly solid results.

baconography

Bought some TMF 40c 5/30 at close today. Fed just backstops whenever yields get yippy. Easy money.

TheMrfabio24

I just want TLT to go to the moon. Got assigned 3k shares of TMF @ 39.50 Friday

baconography

I'm just talking about a rebound-trade via TMF calls 1-2 weeks out from TLT hitting below 87.25, not a long-term *investment* in TLT.

baconography

Guys, keep an eye on TLT; if that falls below 87.50 again, get ready to buy TMF calls about a week or two out. The Fed will always prevent bonds from crashing, by buying them up, and subsequently boosting TLT back to 90. Easiest repeat trade of the year, I think.

Efficient-Rabbit-751

TMF as well. 2x leverage

Efficient-Rabbit-751

TMF

baconography

Well, we know now what happens whenever it does; the Fed steps in and buys bonds to prop it up; thus, bond prices aren't going to crash. Weekly TMF calls are the play if TLT drops below 87 every time.

Euphoric-Magazine300

You know... every now and then this sub gives you a gem. I listened to that regard about TMF calls. Theyre making $$$.

Yung_Oldfag

Trump getting his way is treasury yields going down. That makes TMF go up.

apocalypsedg

Other bond long duration funds did badly since it launched as well like ZROZ, TMF. It's somewhere in between those two volatility wise, but, if it delivers on the investment thesis, a bit better. A powerful diversifier that doesn't need to take up so much space in a portfolio to have a big effect.

kenric0037

Tariffs will cause trade to go elsewhere and countries who previously trade with the US will need less USD reserves which will lead to them dumping their treasury positions. Meaning TMF is gonna have sell pressure.

apocalypsedg

They use LEAPs on like 7 year bonds, so the theta decay is almost negligible. You get the better yield at the middle of the yield curve, and it's long volatility. The design of it gives great convexity, and you get longer duration (more capital efficient) exposure than say EDV/ZROZ/GOVZ without sufferjng from volatility decay like with TMF or TYD.

a_library_socialist

Fed is going to be put in a bind - they'll have to cut to prompt growth, but the man-made supply shock that is tariffs and the trade war is going to drive prices high at the same time as growth craters. There's a word for this - stagflation. And Treasuries are where you **don't** want to be in that case. Sure, TMF will print - but it's printing in dollars, that are losing their value as quick as TMF gains. So, agree on inflation, but you're going to want gold and farmland for a long bet instead. Countries aren't coming back to the dollar, and the flight from it has just begun. They **will** want to nuke their own currency, since what most countries are going to try to avoid is losing exports due to appreciation. So in the long term, who knows what will replace the dollar. In the near term, every country is going to be scrambling for gold, since they don't want to be at the mercy of Mad King Donnie, or the psychos that put him in power.

_WhatchaDoin_

Get away from TMF. Trust me, bro. It did great before November 5, and it has been downhill since. And if Trump gets his way, it is not going to get any better…

ilt1

TMF? Don't listen to this guy

whodidntante

You can get killed holding TMF. Ask those who ran HFEA, if you can find anyone who will admit to it.

darkslide3000

Is he? I don't actually see how this is a pro-gamer move. Treasuries have been way more shit than they ordinarily should be during a downturn, and there's legitimate fears that it could become even worse if the incompetent orange manages to tank trust in the faith and credit of the US government even further. My TMF has been burning nothing but holes in my pocket. I do certainly hope that this is the prelude to some huge treasury bull run because I'm sitting in the same boat, but right now I don't really see it coming yet.

bangers132

Ah, yes. After some consideration I did move from TMF into UGL. I don’t see stagflation leaving us anytime soon and I am tired of my bonds being down +90% since I bought them.

CSStudent15

I'm going to have to just go all in on TMF and TLT leaps if the 30y yield breaks 5 again

Competitive_Ride

LETFs has been hedging with gold for months now. After the bond massacre TMF was out and managed futures and gold was what most people decided on

EarningsGambler69420

I hope you did a good profit. or cost reduction. I think I'm going to wait a bit, see more bond selling and then bet on Feb 2026, which is when I think J Powell might get replaced. I have done zero research, but it's in my mind. Soon as it is confirmed that J Powell is good as gone within six month from that point forward, I think I'll go all in on TLT, and maybe even TMF. Because 0% interest rates are pretty much a guarantee at this point. It could make me a millionaire, maybe i'll go with 110Cs March 2026.

IncomingAxofKindness

I saw a tic Tok suggesting 95% SOXL, with 5% TMF as a good balanced portfolio. That was enough research for me. Thinking of getting some this UVXY I keep hearing about too though.

yazd1234

TMF would moon.

dimethylhyperspace

I just bought the TMF today lol

dimethylhyperspace

I bought a pretty decent chunk of TMF. 10 year goes above 4.5%, that'll be the sell signal

dimethylhyperspace

Got filled on TMF for 39 a share. Will regret.

dimethylhyperspace

Seriously considering TLT/TMF here. The one thing the 🥭 admin has not flip flopped on, is the desire to drive down the ten year. Which is objectively hilarious bc everything they've done has caused it to rise. But the SPX can drop 20% in 20 days and they don't give a fuck. But the minute the ten year starts getting close to 4.5% they swoop in like a concerned parent.

nowthistime

There’s 30k+ open interest at strikes $85 and $80, too. I exited GLD and loaded $45c 8/15 on TMF. Which of us is the most regarded? Haha

dimethylhyperspace

If the 10yr yield drops, it could set up a pretty textbook H+S. TMF could be a good buy here. I still don't trust Asia though to not keep dumping

lipmanz

My TMF calls 😥

thesexycucumber

Me looking at my TMF 

qw1ns

For visibility purpose, writing here. Op , u/zebirke, your father is true guru. Why doubt about such a father? Here are my true findings (and I practcailly use it). Eight years before, I started my own algorithmic journey, wrote a script Dec 2017, but completed workable version Dec 25, 2018 - found bottom of market was Dec 24th (19.5% drawdown). From then on, I escaped from all recession (2020), corrections (appx 15%-25%). My algorithm measures the so called waves of your father's findings. Market prepares ahead to make a possible top or possible bottom that my algorithm. Market moves first and then media/news reports correct as well as fake news (not at all related). >The weirdest thing he says is that the markets create the news. He genuinely believes that there are wave movements that cause events. He is pretty right about this weirdest thing. Yesterday, you see my algorthmic test message [https://imgur.com/AalUaou](https://imgur.com/AalUaou) When I get this message, I buy and will also get sell trade like this [https://imgur.com/1jLXSSE](https://imgur.com/1jLXSSE) The above is day trade cycles (waves). Same way, I have swing trade cycle and long term cycles. Caveat: When high volatility period, day trade cycles fail, but swing trade skewed, but long term cycle runs fairly. During Jan 2025, I moved entire money to bonds, TLT and TMF (when it was 36.75%), holding 80% with it, but day trading 20% (every day cycle). Last week when TMF went up $46.90 sold all TMF, TLT, Bonds and this week near bottom moved to TQQQ,SOXL, QQQ,SMH almost 90%. My over all (due to bonds) [https://imgur.com/Oms8D3O](https://imgur.com/Oms8D3O) This 2025-01-12 post copy [https://imgur.com/CAbnxcR](https://imgur.com/CAbnxcR)

baconography

No individual company names. I'm married to the macro: TLT/TMF and UUP puts, and GLD calls as the U.S. and the dollar collapses and permanently destroys its international reputation.

Madeupnamelol

TMF or options on TLT

dimethylhyperspace

This might be a really good spot to buy TMF. I don't think they'll let the ten year go above 4.50%

CSStudent15

I'm balls deep in TMF

ThrowawayTop3547

Time to load up on TMF?

thesexycucumber

Bought a bunch of TMF thinking I'll be safe and month ago 

baconography

Good lord, who are the poor bastards writing GLD, TLT/TMF, and UUP put contracts lol

jnas_19

I need that dollar to keep tanking so my ADR shares keep rising. Same with bonds to bottom fish TMF

qw1ns

Right, they downvoted me when I purchased TMF at $36.75 and told me I was wrong (during Jan 2025). Since I was strong on my analysis, I ignored them. Last week, I sold all TMF at $46.70 (it went up $48.5 IIRC). Now, I started buying TQQQ ($39 onwards) and SOXL ($7.80 to $9.5), holding still. IMO, Market may go up and down, but correction has reached a bottom cycle. Since I am fine with my analysis, never post such and mind my own business. Good Luck to you.

CSStudent15

Getting destroyed on TMF

Tricky_Let2806

Uhhhh break even on my TQQQ and TMF after all these years, sold both fuck it

baconography

TMF puts, GLD calls *NFA. Am retard.*

TheMrfabio24

Anything over 4.5 I’m going heavy TMF

baconography

Looking to buy more TLT and TMF puts at open. That is the easiest trade right now.

L0ial

*Takes off TLT bull hat* *puts on TMF bear hat*

superogc

time to get in on TMF?

IranianGeneral

Rip my TMF calls, thought it would be a good hedge against market falling. Should of just bought puts on everything instead 

CapitalInstance4315

I may be underwater on TMF right now, but just you wait til China sells all 700+B of their bonds at market prices. That's when the real money starts rolling in.

baconography

TMF puts

Sriracha_ma

TLT fucked ? lol saw a bunch of boomer regards in the WSB sub rush to TLT / TMF a month or so back callin it safe haven

Dodona_

I did type it in Google and only got TLT and IEF. I see someone else responded with TMV and TMF so that was additional info picked up as well.

baconography

If you didn't load up on TLT and TMF puts at close, I don't know what to say. This is the easiest play in the last few years

baconography

TMF ATM May puts.

baconography

I have no idea why no one is talking about this. TLT was red on a green day, and red on a red day. That is something, and it isn't nothing. Someone is selling, though gradually. And it is going to be catastrophic when it becomes a tidal wave. TMF puts and TLT puts are likely the surest things while these dummies continue to steer the Titanic into the iceberg.

CSStudent15

Was a bit early buying TMF and SVIX 

baconography

Japan holds a bunch, too. TMF puts are gonna print HARD.

dimethylhyperspace

If we rip tommorrow, that will be a golden opportunity to enter the TLT/TMF

thesexycucumber

Loaded up on TMF to cover my gaped anoos 

Diabolic_commentor

Yeah this is the biggest risk. Till inflation doesn't go down and fed doesn't cut rates, TLT and TMF have limited upside.

ColtaineKK

In the coming days TLT and TMF will probably go up a bit as people panic sell equities and buy bonds, but the next step of trump’s reshoring plan is to weaken USD + inflation isn’t going away, so I expect yields to rise in coming weeks/months. I would prefer buying a TLT put with long strike instead shares in TMF though. My take anyway. 

Savik519

55/45 UPRO/TMF https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007

DoubleFamous5751

Watched the ask getting hit on TLT on Friday at the lows. If bonds come in, I think the rally is going to continue for them. Lots of dividend names got hit hard on Friday. I could see funds moving that invest in dividend names pulling from stocks and going to bonds. Play would obviously be TMF, because leverage is our friend.

Crunchypie1

I'm DCA into TMF. I might be regarded idk?

Tylc

I bit the bullets and swapped 30% to bonds and bond funds. in my short account, i went heavy on TMF, with a 8% gain

IkigaiWabiSabi

Please, Mr. President. If you are reading this. It's too much winning. Please, we can't take all this winning. I shorted the dollar, the NASDAQ, a few tech companies and bought long CALLs on VIX and TLT and TMF. Too much winning. And now you are gonna give me a tax cut... This is too much winning.

JMaguire204

Yeah I’m buying leaps for TMF

JMaguire204

Too late for TMF calls?

IkigaiWabiSabi

Nice, my CALLs on TLT and TMF are doing great as well!

KissMyRichard

Not really. TMF calls ended up being my hedge.

L0ial

Let's go TMF

AdolfoSchicklgruber

You’re winning if you’re long TMF or TLT; or shorting SPY, QQQ, or IWM.

Dense_Reflection4070

All in on TMF or not yet ? 

ImAnonymous135

TMF gang rise up

lipmanz

If market is believing inflation about to go back above 5%, why are TLT and TMF up?

futurespacecadet

Thoughts on TMF?

qw1ns

Timing the market is right for me (as long as I am able to make it). Back in Jan 2025, when I bought few thousands of shares of **TMF at $36.75**, reddit viewers said I was wrong as interest rate may go to 10% ! Today, **I sold all my TMFs at $46.90**, started buying TQQQ(50.50-52.50), SOXL($11.5-$13), MAGS..etc.(no TMF now)!

DesignerSea494

So, TMF calls?

DesignerSea494

When foreign countries start shedding US debt we could see a massive spike in the bond market. TMF here I come.

dimethylhyperspace

Cash, TMF and sell into strength

gamblingPharmaStocks

Maybe they could hike short term to tame inflation, but they are gonna cut rates before year end or you guys dive into a recession. TMF gang back in town🚀🚀🚀🚀

Abject_Literature_83

Im gonna give u actual real good advice, TMF which is 3x long bonds but i like to call Too Much Fuckery, they are historically low and go up when people panic, they also pay 4% in dividends

lipmanz

What does stagflation/inflation narrative say about TMF and TLT blasting off

Upstairs_Present5006

TLT and bonds are going up. Is it time to invest in TLT, TMF?

L0ial

Sold SLV, bought more TMF. May grab a few more TLT 92c's for January.

L0ial

It'll keep going. Market expects bad data from tariffs, so forward looking is rates dropping. TLT and TMF to the moon over the next year or more.

CSStudent15

not even TMF 

w562d67Z

The UPRO/TMF bet is more dangerous than it looks. This completely blew up in 2022 and there's still a thread about it on Boglehead somewhere. I would like to learn more about your macro bets and how you use that to generate signals. I do something similar where I decide what type of market regime we are in, an offshoot of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio then allocate to asset classes based on that and then writing options on them. Based on current macro, I am targeting around .48 beta and leaning heavily into Energy, commodities, gold, and defensives.

Diabolic_commentor

TMF

L0ial

TMF calls for January. IMO tariffs will show in the economic data, then eventually rate cuts happen. TLT will moon before that happens in anticipation of rate cuts. I'm highly regarded though.

L0ial

My SPY puts while averaging into TMF is going according to plan. Had to sell my puts since they expired tomorrow. Now, what strike to buy for a month from now...

aftherith

Might buy a couple thousand shares of TMF tomorrow if I can get a pullback.

__Evil-Genius__

This is true. I’ve noticed that I have to swing in and out of them and I take profits frequently. Then re-enter after a a couple of big green days. Thank you for the TMF recommendation. I’m gonna do some research on it. The chart looks promising.

qw1ns

I am up now ( holding TMF since Jan 2025)

thrawness

Not sure if this is bait. I'll give it a try. Your current approach raises several concerns: 1. **Overleveraged Exposure**: Roughly 30% of your portfolio is tied up in 3x leveraged ETFs (UPRO, TQQQ, TMF, YINN). That’s a significant amount of leverage, and calling YINN your “bold bet” underplays the risk you're already carrying across the board. 2. **Illiquid Underlyings**: Selling strangles on illiquid names erodes your edge. For example, AVUV makes up nearly 9% of your portfolio, yet only three (!) options traded on Friday. Wide bid-ask spreads will eat into your potential profits and increase slippage risk. 3. **Unrealistic Goals**: Targeting a Sharpe Ratio above 1.5 is admirable—but not grounded in reality given your holdings. The volatility drag and drawdowns inherent in LETFs (Leveraged ETFs) make such a Sharpe Ratio highly unlikely, if not unattainable over time. 4. **Lack of Strategic Cohesion**: What’s the actual thesis behind your portfolio? Yeah, AI picked those ETFs for you. We know. The name you’ve chosen sounds polished, but it doesn’t reflect a clear or coherent investment strategy. Do you understand the mechanics or underlying exposures of each ETF you’re trading? “Trading Ideas” in an ETF's name doesn’t cut it as a guiding principle. 5. **Drawdowns Already Happening**: Depending on when you entered these positions, you’ve likely already experienced pain. Just last Friday: * UPRO: -6% * TQQQ: -8% * YINN: -7.3% These are not minor dips—they're warnings about how quickly risk compounds with leverage. All the best to your future trading journey!

dimethylhyperspace

I'm about to jump into TMF. That said, I would think tarriffs would cause the ten year to rally and drop the the TLT. But the chart don't lie, technicals look great.

dimethylhyperspace

Buys of the week: TMF/TLT GDX Copper SQQQ