TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares
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What should I understand about futures contract expiration dates when using futures for long-term leverage?
Yolo my life saving into a leverage etf
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Why shouldn’t I buy $TMF now? It’s $3!!!!!
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
It's a great time to buy US Treasury Bonds (TMF)
Ray Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
When Silence Speaks: The Market Implications of What Powell Didn't Promise
Why TMF Stands Out: Limited Decay and the Anticipated Rate Cut
Request Asset Allocation Feedback - With Recent Gain
Critique a 1.8x leveraged portfolio strategy that relies on 3x levered ETFs?
Can someone explain TMF??? Good idea in 2024?
The Weakening Pulse of the Markets: Why I See No Room for Further Rise
2023-04-27 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Velma Dinkley
2023-04-26 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Harley Quinn
Navigating Market Uncertainty: A Bearish Outlook Amid Debt, Inflation, and Geopolitical Tensions
2023-04-05 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of a Marine Drill Instructor
Anyone with a Motley Fool Subscription Mind Sharing the 2023 Recommendations??
Calculating the expected annual tax drag of a portfolio due to rebalancing
Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market?
Anybody able to share example CSV exports from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, or E*Trade?
What are the bear arguments for long term bond etfs like TLT or TMF?
Can leveraged etfs go to zero without index being down 33%+?
The Recession has already happened, and you missed it
Anyone following Lemonade LMND?
With a good PCE is TLT/TMF a good buy right now?
thoughts on my return stacked leveraged ETF portfolios?
Thoughts on my return stacked leveraged portfolios?
thoughts on my return stacked and leveraged portfolios?
Can a value stock also be a growth stock, examples in the current market? Which metrics to (mainly) look at?
Is there something I'm missing? Leverage ETFs seem great.
my boyfriend is obsessed with investing and it worries me?
Backtesting a $100k UPRO portfolio with long $HYG puts as a hedge (replacing TMF in HFEA, the Hedgefundie portfolio)
I cancelled my membership with Motley Fool today. Their marketing made me do it.
What happens to secondary US Bonds in the event of a foreign debt crisis?
Call to Action; FINRA Notice 22-08 (Important if you trade UPRO, TQQQ, TMF)
Do you know any good articles that discuss using bonds to save cash incase there's a good time to buy a stock dip?
Absolutely retarded apebrained 2x leveraged 60/40 S&P 500 / long term treasury portfolio - looking for feedback
About to YOLO my entire Roth IRA into TQQQ. Who's with me?
About to YOLO my entire Roth IRA into TQQQ. Who's with me?
Here are the pros and cons of the healthcare sector [DD]
Here are the pros and cons of the healthcare sector [DD]
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked great. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked well. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked well. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Recreating hedgefundie's portfolio for cheaper
HedgeFundie’s Excellent Adventure: Historical Distribution of Rolling Returns. 3X leverage ETF Portfolio
Anyone follow TMF recommendations
Inflation Fear Mongers Are Wrong - Treasury Yields Will Plummet
How sound is investing in a bogles-style portfolio, but with 3x leverage?
Would higher bond yields cause a rise in leveraged bond ETFs (specifically $TMF) or would the lower bond price cause it to drop?
Robustness of treasuries as hedges on a PSLDX/Hedgefundie style investment
No, 100% TQQQ is probably not a great idea. Here's why.
Weekly Trading Strategy Spotlight (02/17/2021 ) - wallstreetbets sentiment analysis
Mentions
If you don’t want to worry about managing leverage with futures just buy TMF (3x leverage long bonds)
TLT/TMF, the fed will flood the system with money and cut rates to zero.
Diversify into BNDX, TMF, VXUS
Yes, I rolled up and out TLT call and got TMF call assigned.
Starting to almost feel moderately smart for the sickening amount of TLT and TMF I purchased a while ago. This likely still ends with my tears and lost porn somehow.
TLT and TMF gang checking in 🤙 if anything were to happen to bonds though, then we are seriously fucked. One way to read the gold rush is that the global economy is losing trust in the US hegemony, we do not want that
Just came for your help, This SPX/NDX must go down at its current phase, safer is TLT & TMF. This is my algorithmic finding and I never failed last 8 years RemindMe! 14 Apr 2026 check with me ! At present , holding SPY or QQQ is riskier than TLT & TMF.
RemindMe! 14 Apr 2026 At present , holding SPY or QQQ is riskier than TLT & TMF. Even you do not have crystall ball that SPX or QQQ will be up by 4/14/26 !
I agree with your sentiments, sold all the stocks and moved to TLT/TMF side, holding for next 6 months.
**Title question**: If stocks are at an all time high and gold is at a an all time high, then what is not at an all time high **My asnwer**: US treasury ETFs are not all time high, buy TLT and TMF (I believed that and bought TLT on Thursday).
Short term bonds have very little upside to go up on. Truly cash equivalent is getting the overnight rate and that's unaffected by the markets. Cash equivalent bonds are three months or shorter. So unless they're trading at a negative yield the most they could go up is ~1% (bills expiring jan 13 are trading for 99.04$ per 100$ face value). I have no idea what the comment was talking about. And then they reply with TMF which is long duration. I get it might go up in a crash due to flight to safety, but I think it'll go down as more and more participants realise inflation isn't going below 3% and a 1% real yield isn't worth it
Sure I'm long TMF a leveraged 3x 20 year bond rn. Seems the easy money trade for the next year other than Antimony UAMY
Was TMF long the play
TQQQ shorts are for the longer term TQQQ decays relative to the NASDAQ so that's ideal for trading the correction that will eventually come. SQQQ doesn't decay all that much, but I short SQQQ instead of opening longs for NASDAQ because shorting is free of charge at my broker while going long directly incurs daily fees. SOXS and SOXL decay very fast, and I want to be short the semis in case the market would go up and that's automatically implemented by shorting both SOXS and SOXL. We'll likely get a rotation to the financial sector, shorting FAZ has the advantage that FAZ decays over time. I'm long TMF instead of short TBT because TBT incurs massive dividend fees and doesn't decay all that fast. It's worse than SQQQ in which case the slow decay is still similar to the quarterly dividend fee.
Short NASDAQ by shorting TQQQ and shorting SQQQ as a hedge. Long VXX and also short VXX as a hedge. Long XLF by shorting FAZ Long TLT by being long TMF Neutral semis by being short SOXS and also short SOXL at the same exposures.
Yes I'm out of TMF short about month ago. Been a hell of 5 yrs prior tho. TLT drops below 200sma i'm in it again.
banbet! TMF +10% 10/3/25
Feels like TMF is about to go on a moon mission with long bonds dropping.
Reddit is Reddit, 141 upvotes for wrong statements/concepts! So much people are naive and they do not look history of these instruments (SPX, TLT and GLD ) Find recessions periods 2001, 2008, 2011,2016 , 2018, 2020, 2025 what happened to GLD and TLT ? Every market crash above 15% SPX drops, both TLT and GLD jumps opposite side. Between Jan 12 to April 7th, I moved my cash from TQQQ to TMF and TMF jumped from $36.5 ( bought ) to $48 ( sold )
At least go for the 3x leveraged bond fund. TMF.
114k in UNH, 8k in UNHG, 32k in BRK-B, and 30k in WM. UNH did most of the heavy lifting for me today. Also have 13k in ETH, 4k in BTC, and 10k in TMF
September 23rd is dividend ex-date for many of my leveraged ETFs. I've closed my shorts for SOXS and moved the money to a long position for SOXL a few days ago. Today I may open a long position for SQQQ and if the market goes down today, I may close a few shorts for TQQQ and perhaps open a long position for TQQQ. Shorts for TBT were closed a while ago and the money was moved to a long position for TMF. I'll leave my large short position for FAZ open. On the ex-date or later I'll reverse these moves at opportune moments, closing long positions for leveraged ETFs and reopen the shorts for leveraged ETFs.
Not in this guy or gals case! Im not one to talk tho.. I lost my 15K inside of my tfsa on TMF last year. But made most of it back with IBIT. I bought the day after trump won and BTC mooned
I've been in and out of TMF twice this week. It's either go in to absolutely moon or tank with the rate cut..I just don't know which
For what it’s worth, TMF just hit the eject button on UPS late last week.
Just bought TMF for CPI and ppi + rate cuts.
Well that was a loooong 5 months to get back to green on TMF. I should probably GTFO.
any regards trade TMF? good shit? bad shit?
There was like 5 or 6 BIG darkpool transactions that came thru on the TMF. Usually, these mark tops or bottoms depending on the shape of the trend. TLT has been basing out for months now
Damn, I feel like it's only been three days but I've already missed the move in TLT/TMF
True. I have this conviction on SOFI at the moment, but that’s a long haul. Short term, similar conviction on TMF though recent events have made me think twice (tariff ruling made it pull back way more than expected)
You need a leveraged hedge if you want a x3 leveraged equity ETF long term, like bonds (TMF) or bonds and gold (UGL). Bonds have historically been a good hedge, but not great with high inflation - but that’s where UGL can come in handy. Otherwise having 1.5-2x leveraged equities has historically been good and you don’t need hedges but they are more volatile.
True. TMF looking strong again today though. We’ll know soon enough on September 17th
Well, if you’re going to switch to something else with a crazy all in why not SOFI? That might make you a millionaire with a bet this size… especially with the pending rate cut. Or better yet, TMF.
Yeah like TMF, 20 yr T bills. They shut down few years ago.... NO they reversed split and still going. You have no idea what your talking about!
Yeah, TMF’s been rough lately 45% allocation is definitely high risk. 😬📉
I cannot understate how shit TMF is in this environment. To put 45% your port in that at these levels is a tough ass pill to swallow
Jurome will capitulate to Trump. Buy calls on TMF.
Anyone else finally listening to the drumbeat and all in on TMF and TLT?
Anyone think TMF or TLT might be worth looking into in a couple months? I know interest rates are a long shot investment, but it could pay off nicely if rates start to fall down the line.
I tried a 3x leveraged portfolio with UPRO, TQQQ, and both TMF and BTAL as hedges based on several popular back tests. TMF got destroyed in 2022 as long duration bonds got fucked as the fed was raising rates. It never functioned well enough as a hedge (and I don’t think will in the future either). BTAL actually worked well. Glad it was in the portfolio. Backtests were skewed due to long periods of slow grind up post GFC. In fact, it’s the same period when the short vol trade (XIV) was very popular. I think it could work, but you have to have immense risk tolerance. I did not- deleveraged in Jan/Feb and just went into non leveraged indexes.
If the federal funds rate is cut, TMF should go up in price, right?
Well I get why OP is doing that. Probably because he's confident in AMD but not confident in the economy/market. Problem with TLT is that he should have just used TMF if it's just for insurance.
Wait until next week when a retard goes 0DTE into INTC and uses TMF FDs as hedge.
Maybe you don’t understand what TMF is lmao. It goes UP (call) when interest rates go down. Its an inverse 3X stock
Bought Calls on: TMF - fed will drop interest rates SQQQ- Market sell off of S&P HIMS - Good value now Puts: SPY- $626 SPY-$627 DNUT
Boglehead forums had a long running thread of using leveraged ETF to boost gains. They offset the downside risk by holding TMF. Seems it worked for those holding it or on backtests. I been tempted to try it but fear we might be heading into a downturn to risk holding a leveraged account. Here's a summary: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/hedgefundie-adventure/
Posted here yesterday that TMF was an easy 3% this week. It is nice to finally be right
Going to buy TMF. Looks like an easy 3% gain this week. Stock has been trading back and forth between for weeks now
How much TMF / TLT did you buy?
> TMF I hope you're plowing your student loan money into that instead of paying tuition. Much better ROI.
Indeed. The absolute purest of idiots are rarely self-aware. Poor fools. Anyway, I'm going to go buy me some TMF.
I use a mix of four strategies which I call FANGEtc Momentum (50% of portfolio), Leveraged Crosses (16% of portfolio), FNGU Trends (17% of portfolio), and Leveraged Index (17% of portfolio). FANGEtc Momentum invests in mega-cap stocks based on momentum. Leveraged Crosses invests in UPRO (or in TMF during extremely volatile periods such as the Liberation Day volatility which I consider to be black swan events). Leveraged Index invests in a mix of UPRO, TMV, EURL, and TMF with the proportions based on recent performance. FNGU Trends invests in FNGU (or in TMF during black swan events). I backtested trailing stop loss orders of each whole percent for this FNGU Trends strategy and settled on 52% to avoid catastrophic losses. When a stop loss order is triggered then I wait until FNGU opens back above its 120-day MA (selected after backtesting various options). I sell again if price drops below original stop loss level minus another 3%, buy again when it rises above the MA again, and reset the trailing stop loss floor when a new ATH is reached. My objective in using a high percentage trailing stop loss order on FNGU Trends is to sell while the LETF is dropping during a bear market. If the bear market continues then the MA will follow the price down over several days or weeks so when the bear market ends and the LETF starts to rise again the MA buy price will be substantially below the stop price at which the LETF was sold. Losing 50%+ is painful but not nearly as painful as losing 90% or more. Avoiding that additional 30%+ loss and getting back in for another climb make sense to me. Leveraged Index and Leveraged Crosses do not use stop loss orders. Leveraged Index rebalances into new positions based on recent performance (momentum). Leveraged Crosses moves in and out of UPRO in response to indicators based on moving averages and moves into TMF during black swan events. My goal is maximum long term CAGR so I tolerate losing 50%+ every few years to earn CAGR over 40% in the other years. I have earned 10-year CAGR of over 20% but the first few years were nerve-racking! I've sent a free newsletter sharing the details since 2015. *Always backtest simple rules for when you buy and when you sell before investing. Backtests should deliver strong results for at least 15 years and for each of the last three 5 year periods.*
Because look at what happened to TMF over the last few years
Man, I ran across this searching for TNA threads…if anyone went in on this TQQQ, TMF, UPRO rebalancing portfolio they got smoked. -70% Jan ‘22 to Dec ‘22 and still has not recovered even though the 15 year backtested annual return is still 19% due to the pre 2022 gains. Since 2022 it has basically gotten you the same as 500 index fund returns with a lot more risk.
Can you name one start up company now which can be 10000% after 10 years and invest $10000 now? This is the major issue! I bought NVDA 500 shares at $48 and 600 shares of TSLA at 41, never held but sold when it jumped 300% However, this gave me good idea to buy and hold. But whatever I hold jumped meager amount ! Bought 1000 shares ACHR at $3, sold 500 at $7, but not growing more than $10. Same way, bought 1000 shares of PL, holding, never know future! Same way timing swing is an issue, still trying to swing TQQQ, SOXL and TMF. I may know what works after few years.
You do not need such expensive tools, just read some good valuation books. I like accounting for value by stephen penman, nice one, bought from used amazon books. I do some homework about companies and invest in individual stocks while I trade 3x etfs such as TQQQ,SOXL, TMF etc. This trading knwoledge helped me to understand the market and when the market is at low ebb, I buy my favorite DD companies. This works are mostly. For example, I bought PFE around $18 (waited for a long time to go below $20), CRWV around 37.5 (just after IPO) and PL around $5 this year pick.
I use leveraged ETFs that are 2x or 3x exposure to crank up the exposure beyond 100%. TQQQ 32% UGL 12% TMF 12%
TMF +25% in one month, tsm +30% in 8 months
You don't have to believe me TMF's stock pick history is a matter of public record. Anyone who followed them since 2002 would have the same results. Anyway I'm looking for a replacement service not looking to discuss TMF. Sorry you missed the boat.
Im sinking down with TMF
\+50% CYN \+4% TMF \+28% DPRO \+20% MOB \-14% UAVS \-2% UMAC \-15% DELL 07/18 140 Call \-64% MU 07/18 140 Call Not great, not bad. Overall I'm in profit. You'd think I have some idea of what I'm doing but honestly, I have no fucking clue how I managed to have more than one position above 1% profit.
Ok, so tard level 1 bets are options. What are people doing for tard level 2? I think they are going to devalue the fuck out of the dollar over the next year. So...I'm thinking REITs should do well. Gold of course. Euro funds. TMF/TLT.
I ran that strategy through portfolio visualizer, 60% UPRO, 40% TMF rebalanced quarterly from 2019 to today. An interesting quote from the post: >**What are the risks of your strategy?** The main risk is that the S&P 500 and long Treasuries crash together in the same short period of time. In the past 30 years this has not happened, and I can't think of a real-world scenario in which this would happen. I acknowledge this risk and move forward having accepted it. Which is exactly what happened in 2022 where it dropped 67% due to long term treasuries dropping along with the S&P for an entire year. That portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 between 2019 and 2025.
Fuck it. I think these retards are going to cut rates. Buying a bunch of TMF mother fuckers. Devalue that dollar!
Umh I remember somebody messaging me about my funds, telling me they "already figured them out" or whatever. If it wasn't you (maybe through some other account, idk), then I apologize sincerely. As for the funds, yeah, I think you just forget them. it's a PIMCO fund, VCMDX and QRPIX. It's those three, yep, good job! As for resembling Bogleheads, RR, EliteTrader, Ayres+Nalebuff or any other website/book/resource, uhhh duh, I didn't come up with the concept of "grab a multi-asset, efficient portfolio, then leverage it to the Kelly Criterion" so you will obviously find similar concepts on other websites/books. This particular portfolio was put together by my advisor, who has done similar leveraged, multi-asset portfolios for more than a decade. Well before people like Steve Reading, comeinvest, HFEA, or whatever even posted. I've actually shown him some of those threads, he said to absolutely stay away from anything like HFEA back 6 years ago. I never touched TMF with a ten-foot pole thanks to him.
Buy some TMF, you'd get your 10% next Wednesday.
Treasury action tomorrow is going to show strong demand for US bonds. TLT will pop up. If you really want to play it risky TMF. You're welcome.
Not worth a penny imo. A year of SA and TMF taught me I certainly didn't need their services.
What you prefer: TMF or TLT calls LEAPS?
Trump without Elon, can't pass shit, lower yields ahead, Long TLT/TMF
Spending Bill gets held up in senate… spending/debt expectations decline… corn and spy down bonds up. Threw $160k into $TMF
I think the call went badly, all in shorts and TLT/TMF
As much as I personally hold and love TMF, I have to disagree with everything you said as misguided and wrong. High chance there's no rate cuts this year and any relief on LTT yields is temporary until things get a semblance of stability and sanity.
Am I crazy for thinking that the 10yr looks ready to free fall and that this might be a good entry for TMF?
60/20/20 - UPRO/TMF/UGL, DCA monthly, enjoy 30 million in 20 years. Feel free to pick this apart I'm still investigating, but pretty dialed in
TMF? TIPS? Which bonds? I'm regarded btw.
If you aren't in ZROZ, GOVZ, or TMF you've got no balls.
Full port TMF let's get this baby back to $100
I mean proportionally yes. The gains are bigger. I've made several TMF call plays this year for good returns
True. Do you ever trade TMF. I usually do those over TLT options for bigger gains
Might've got into TMF a little too early 
It's getting close to time to buy calls on TMF
Definitely not TMF, that’s a long bond fund. Sounds like you want to long the yield aka short the bonds
Wonder when it will be time to buy TLT/TMF. Historically the divergence between short and long end yields can be a lot higher, currently we're only around 1%.