TMF

dimethylhyperspace

I've been in and out of TMF twice this week. It's either go in to absolutely moon or tank with the rate cut..I just don't know which

Individual-Being-639

Long TMF since $36

SSN-759

For what it’s worth, TMF just hit the eject button on UPS late last week.

dimethylhyperspace

Just bought TMF for CPI and ppi + rate cuts.

Recent_Register_2952

What about TMF tho

aftherith

Well that was a loooong 5 months to get back to green on TMF. I should probably GTFO.

Recent_Register_2952

any regards trade TMF? good shit? bad shit?

dimethylhyperspace

There was like 5 or 6 BIG darkpool transactions that came thru on the TMF. Usually, these mark tops or bottoms depending on the shape of the trend. TLT has been basing out for months now

dimethylhyperspace

Damn, I feel like it's only been three days but I've already missed the move in TLT/TMF

Quick-Ad1830

TMF calls 😳

HugeAd5056

True. I have this conviction on SOFI at the moment, but that’s a long haul. Short term, similar conviction on TMF though recent events have made me think twice (tariff ruling made it pull back way more than expected)

SainteDeus

You need a leveraged hedge if you want a x3 leveraged equity ETF long term, like bonds (TMF) or bonds and gold (UGL). Bonds have historically been a good hedge, but not great with high inflation - but that’s where UGL can come in handy. Otherwise having 1.5-2x leveraged equities has historically been good and you don’t need hedges but they are more volatile.

HugeAd5056

True. TMF looking strong again today though. We’ll know soon enough on September 17th

HugeAd5056

Well, if you’re going to switch to something else with a crazy all in why not SOFI? That might make you a millionaire with a bet this size… especially with the pending rate cut. Or better yet, TMF.

No-Consequence-8768

Yeah like TMF, 20 yr T bills. They shut down few years ago.... NO they reversed split and still going. You have no idea what your talking about!

user_7486

Yeah, TMF’s been rough lately 45% allocation is definitely high risk. 😬📉

jnas_19

I cannot understate how shit TMF is in this environment. To put 45% your port in that at these levels is a tough ass pill to swallow

UncouthMarvin

55/45 UPRO TMF and chill

jnas_19

Yes, sell and go all in on TMF

DoubleEveryMonth

Jurome will capitulate to Trump. Buy calls on TMF.

hawkedmd

Anyone else finally listening to the drumbeat and all in on TMF and TLT?

Comfortable_Bat_7015

Anyone think TMF or TLT might be worth looking into in a couple months? I know interest rates are a long shot investment, but it could pay off nicely if rates start to fall down the line.

weasler7

I tried a 3x leveraged portfolio with UPRO, TQQQ, and both TMF and BTAL as hedges based on several popular back tests. TMF got destroyed in 2022 as long duration bonds got fucked as the fed was raising rates. It never functioned well enough as a hedge (and I don’t think will in the future either). BTAL actually worked well. Glad it was in the portfolio. Backtests were skewed due to long periods of slow grind up post GFC. In fact, it’s the same period when the short vol trade (XIV) was very popular. I think it could work, but you have to have immense risk tolerance. I did not- deleveraged in Jan/Feb and just went into non leveraged indexes.

haze_from_deadlock

If the federal funds rate is cut, TMF should go up in price, right?

haze_from_deadlock

Idea: TMF calls

zxc123zxc123

Well I get why OP is doing that. Probably because he's confident in AMD but not confident in the economy/market. Problem with TLT is that he should have just used TMF if it's just for insurance.

zxc123zxc123

Wait until next week when a retard goes 0DTE into INTC and uses TMF FDs as hedge.

ibeach2025

Maybe you don’t understand what TMF is lmao. It goes UP (call) when interest rates go down. Its an inverse 3X stock

ibeach2025

Bought Calls on: TMF - fed will drop interest rates SQQQ- Market sell off of S&P HIMS - Good value now Puts: SPY- $626 SPY-$627 DNUT

FreeEnergy001

Boglehead forums had a long running thread of using leveraged ETF to boost gains. They offset the downside risk by holding TMF. Seems it worked for those holding it or on backtests. I been tempted to try it but fear we might be heading into a downturn to risk holding a leveraged account. Here's a summary: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/hedgefundie-adventure/

no_simpsons

TMF up 4.20% today

UncouthMarvin

My TMF is boomin'

StrategistGG

Posted here yesterday that TMF was an easy 3% this week. It is nice to finally be right 

StrategistGG

Going to buy TMF. Looks like an easy 3% gain this week. Stock has been trading back and forth between for weeks now

AICHEngineer

How much TMF / TLT did you buy?

ragnaroksunset

> TMF I hope you're plowing your student loan money into that instead of paying tuition. Much better ROI.

mikestorm

Indeed. The absolute purest of idiots are rarely self-aware. Poor fools. Anyway, I'm going to go buy me some TMF.

LeveragedMomentum

I use a mix of four strategies which I call FANGEtc Momentum (50% of portfolio), Leveraged Crosses (16% of portfolio), FNGU Trends (17% of portfolio), and Leveraged Index (17% of portfolio). FANGEtc Momentum invests in mega-cap stocks based on momentum. Leveraged Crosses invests in UPRO (or in TMF during extremely volatile periods such as the Liberation Day volatility which I consider to be black swan events). Leveraged Index invests in a mix of UPRO, TMV, EURL, and TMF with the proportions based on recent performance. FNGU Trends invests in FNGU (or in TMF during black swan events). I backtested trailing stop loss orders of each whole percent for this FNGU Trends strategy and settled on 52% to avoid catastrophic losses. When a stop loss order is triggered then I wait until FNGU opens back above its 120-day MA (selected after backtesting various options). I sell again if price drops below original stop loss level minus another 3%, buy again when it rises above the MA again, and reset the trailing stop loss floor when a new ATH is reached. My objective in using a high percentage trailing stop loss order on FNGU Trends is to sell while the LETF is dropping during a bear market. If the bear market continues then the MA will follow the price down over several days or weeks so when the bear market ends and the LETF starts to rise again the MA buy price will be substantially below the stop price at which the LETF was sold. Losing 50%+ is painful but not nearly as painful as losing 90% or more. Avoiding that additional 30%+ loss and getting back in for another climb make sense to me. Leveraged Index and Leveraged Crosses do not use stop loss orders. Leveraged Index rebalances into new positions based on recent performance (momentum). Leveraged Crosses moves in and out of UPRO in response to indicators based on moving averages and moves into TMF during black swan events. My goal is maximum long term CAGR so I tolerate losing 50%+ every few years to earn CAGR over 40% in the other years. I have earned 10-year CAGR of over 20% but the first few years were nerve-racking! I've sent a free newsletter sharing the details since 2015. *Always backtest simple rules for when you buy and when you sell before investing. Backtests should deliver strong results for at least 15 years and for each of the last three 5 year periods.*

Elrondel

Because look at what happened to TMF over the last few years

Quakinator

Man, I ran across this searching for TNA threads…if anyone went in on this TQQQ, TMF, UPRO rebalancing portfolio they got smoked. -70% Jan ‘22 to Dec ‘22 and still has not recovered even though the 15 year backtested annual return is still 19% due to the pre 2022 gains. Since 2022 it has basically gotten you the same as 500 index fund returns with a lot more risk.

jil2507

Can you name one start up company now which can be 10000% after 10 years and invest $10000 now? This is the major issue! I bought NVDA 500 shares at $48 and 600 shares of TSLA at 41, never held but sold when it jumped 300% However, this gave me good idea to buy and hold. But whatever I hold jumped meager amount ! Bought 1000 shares ACHR at $3, sold 500 at $7, but not growing more than $10. Same way, bought 1000 shares of PL, holding, never know future! Same way timing swing is an issue, still trying to swing TQQQ, SOXL and TMF. I may know what works after few years.

jil2507

You do not need such expensive tools, just read some good valuation books. I like accounting for value by stephen penman, nice one, bought from used amazon books. I do some homework about companies and invest in individual stocks while I trade 3x etfs such as TQQQ,SOXL, TMF etc. This trading knwoledge helped me to understand the market and when the market is at low ebb, I buy my favorite DD companies. This works are mostly. For example, I bought PFE around $18 (waited for a long time to go below $20), CRWV around 37.5 (just after IPO) and PL around $5 this year pick.

Fun-Sundae4060

I use leveraged ETFs that are 2x or 3x exposure to crank up the exposure beyond 100%. TQQQ 32% UGL 12% TMF 12%

cknobrain

TMF +25% in one month, tsm +30% in 8 months

jacknimble23

You don't have to believe me TMF's stock pick history is a matter of public record. Anyone who followed them since 2002 would have the same results. Anyway I'm looking for a replacement service not looking to discuss TMF. Sorry you missed the boat.

Inevitable-Estimate8

Im sinking down with TMF

nsfwmessage

TMF

nsfwmessage

\+50% CYN \+4% TMF \+28% DPRO \+20% MOB \-14% UAVS \-2% UMAC \-15% DELL 07/18 140 Call \-64% MU 07/18 140 Call Not great, not bad. Overall I'm in profit. You'd think I have some idea of what I'm doing but honestly, I have no fucking clue how I managed to have more than one position above 1% profit.

Lt_Jones727

TMF

jvro1

Ok, so tard level 1 bets are options. What are people doing for tard level 2? I think they are going to devalue the fuck out of the dollar over the next year. So...I'm thinking REITs should do well. Gold of course. Euro funds. TMF/TLT.

UnKossef

I ran that strategy through portfolio visualizer, 60% UPRO, 40% TMF rebalanced quarterly from 2019 to today. An interesting quote from the post: >**What are the risks of your strategy?** The main risk is that the S&P 500 and long Treasuries crash together in the same short period of time. In the past 30 years this has not happened, and I can't think of a real-world scenario in which this would happen. I acknowledge this risk and move forward having accepted it. Which is exactly what happened in 2022 where it dropped 67% due to long term treasuries dropping along with the S&P for an entire year. That portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 between 2019 and 2025.

jvro1

Fuck it. I think these retards are going to cut rates. Buying a bunch of TMF mother fuckers. Devalue that dollar!

Dry-Drink

Umh I remember somebody messaging me about my funds, telling me they "already figured them out" or whatever. If it wasn't you (maybe through some other account, idk), then I apologize sincerely. As for the funds, yeah, I think you just forget them. it's a PIMCO fund, VCMDX and QRPIX. It's those three, yep, good job! As for resembling Bogleheads, RR, EliteTrader, Ayres+Nalebuff or any other website/book/resource, uhhh duh, I didn't come up with the concept of "grab a multi-asset, efficient portfolio, then leverage it to the Kelly Criterion" so you will obviously find similar concepts on other websites/books. This particular portfolio was put together by my advisor, who has done similar leveraged, multi-asset portfolios for more than a decade. Well before people like Steve Reading, comeinvest, HFEA, or whatever even posted. I've actually shown him some of those threads, he said to absolutely stay away from anything like HFEA back 6 years ago. I never touched TMF with a ten-foot pole thanks to him.

Funny-Property-5336

Buy some TMF, you'd get your 10% next Wednesday.

StrategistGG

Treasury action tomorrow is going to show strong demand for US bonds. TLT will pop up. If you really want to play it risky TMF. You're welcome.

Exotic_Onion9953

Not worth a penny imo. A year of SA and TMF taught me I certainly didn't need their services.

old-wizz

What you prefer: TMF or TLT calls LEAPS?

alexmark002

Trump without Elon, can't pass shit, lower yields ahead, Long TLT/TMF

WallStreetBoners

Spending Bill gets held up in senate… spending/debt expectations decline… corn and spy down bonds up. Threw $160k into $TMF

alexmark002

I think the call went badly, all in shorts and TLT/TMF

Plane-Salamander2580

As much as I personally hold and love TMF, I have to disagree with everything you said as misguided and wrong. High chance there's no rate cuts this year and any relief on LTT yields is temporary until things get a semblance of stability and sanity.

dimethylhyperspace

Am I crazy for thinking that the 10yr looks ready to free fall and that this might be a good entry for TMF?

frengers156

60/20/20 - UPRO/TMF/UGL, DCA monthly, enjoy 30 million in 20 years. Feel free to pick this apart I'm still investigating, but pretty dialed in

minutestomidnight

TMF? TIPS? Which bonds? I'm regarded btw.

pandadogunited

If you aren't in ZROZ, GOVZ, or TMF you've got no balls.

Bdoggg999

Full port TMF let's get this baby back to $100

Holiday-Date8635

TMF is non stop today

kspatterson

I mean proportionally yes. The gains are bigger. I've made several TMF call plays this year for good returns

kspatterson

True. Do you ever trade TMF. I usually do those over TLT options for bigger gains

gmsla_trader

Be a man, TMF.

aftherith

Might've got into TMF a little too early 

dimethylhyperspace

It's getting close to time to buy calls on TMF

PutSpreadDaddi69

Definitely not TMF, that’s a long bond fund. Sounds like you want to long the yield aka short the bonds

redstag191

TMF

HediSLP

Wonder when it will be time to buy TLT/TMF. Historically the divergence between short and long end yields can be a lot higher, currently we're only around 1%.

baconography

Why not go full retard, and go TMF instead?

Sriracha_ma

TLT and TMF absolutely getting crushed

Marshmallowmind2

HFEA strategist in shambles holding TMF. All time lows

CatsalsoCookies

Pretty sure the FED starts buying up bonds aggressively when they see it's getting too high too fast.. We have to time that moment and go all in on $TMF calls

qw1ns

I hold thousands of TMF and TLTs. Since Treasury is selling bonds the yield goes up and another sale happens this Thursday. Waiting with some cash to buy more on that day. Every time yield goes up, it is affecting economy and will eventually dropped by market. I just swing trade TMF and TLT, holding long until I get nice profit. Jan 2025 I bought TMF at $36.75 and sold it $46.9 with 27% appreciations. Now I started buying them again and again when it goes down. Buying more this Thursday! Good luck!!

xolo80

I did $TMF, but I shouldnt have. It was a lucky purchase I made based off the Previous comment, I got lucky hahah

CallsOrPutsYES

TMF is entertaining, 3x 20 year treasury BULL etf. We can play options on it

Sriracha_ma

you the OG TMF bagholder right - i remember your name - what did you do with those bags bruh

daviddjg0033

$JAAA, $BSV (short end corp plus government) and VGLT (lower fee TLT.) $BLV is long end corp plus govt. I bought some TMF today for a trade.

SeriousGarbage3990

Time to go long triple levered 20 year bonds? TLT Calls? TMF??!! LFG

SeriousGarbage3990

Time to go long triple levered 20 year bonds? TLT Calls? TMF??!! LFG

qw1ns

I keep buying TLT and TMF whenever it is pulled back including today. So far accumulated thousands of shares .

Spy300

>POWELL: APPROPRIATE TO RECONSIDER AVERAGE INFLATION TARGETING TMF clear for launch.

Spy300

I'm actually going to load the TMF. I see this game really well now.

lipmanz

TMF can’t stop hitting all time low

Spy300

>POWELL: APPROPRIATE TO RECONSIDER AVERAGE INFLATION TARGETING There not going to raise for inflation. Plus they're buying treasuries again. We load TLT and TMF here

yazd1234

TMF is the way to go.

Mindless-Platypus-90

Look at TMF. It's up 3% today because whales are buying the attractive bonds

lipmanz

Same with fucking TMF

greytoc

There are total bond ETFs like TOTL that you can use and you can leverage it using a short box. But I don't really see how that would work because the short box will be slightly above the risk-free rate. I guess it would also depend on what type of duration and credit quality you are looking at. There are also leveraged constant duration ETFs like TMF and UST. Leverage can be very risky though - I lost quite a bit during the orange-swan event.

Derp_El_Grande

All they know is UPRO and TMF and quarterly rebalance. Anything more modern than a boomer broker UI confuses them

CatsalsoCookies

That said, I'm hugely down on my TMF calls tho

TaxGuy_021

Been selling at the money calls on TMF since last December. Fairly solid results.

baconography

Bought some TMF 40c 5/30 at close today. Fed just backstops whenever yields get yippy. Easy money.

TheMrfabio24

I just want TLT to go to the moon. Got assigned 3k shares of TMF @ 39.50 Friday