TMF

kairepaire

TMF Consumer staples Non-US stocks

financiallythriving

Imagine if you full port TMF and just left the casino

Full_Pear449

Do own a few shares of that and as of today down a hair, probably going to stya pat for awhile. I've been trading,DAILY, SSPC or SPAX. Buy around 10am and out by 3:30. Other focus this year is 10yr treasury. Sold in early Jan this year 2-10 treasury spread at 68. It was as tight as 25 but now at 31 but looking for it to get much tighter by year end. In treasuries this week day trading 7-10 yr etf TYD and long 20yr TMF. Then for the long term I am in TMV and TBT short 20yrs. Very involved in a number of convoluted ways with Tresauries longs and short. The best one ,until this week, is sold 20yr treasury ZROZ vs long Brent BNO and sold PMBS buy BNO. Up unitl thiss week there was positive correlation coefficient of .9 between rising 10yr yld and rising oil pricing

ThermalChaser

Lol me too today was my best day of the month. The only thing better than TLT is TMF.

financiallythriving

Get TMF if you are a degenerate

Inside_Variation1594

I would create a new account and move 350k over there, and pick up QQQ, IBIT, TMF or whatever. use the rest to keep with 0DTE. This isnt your first big drawdown this year. So one, minimize the amount you're able to drawdown by decreasing the amount in the 0dte account, and two, get a fucking risk management plan together. If you're losing over 9% in a week, I'm sure you can figure out how to claw that back in the next 8- 12 weeks.

Own-Recipe5908

TMF is a thing.

Phiziqe

Does anyone hold TMF you bought like 2 years ago like me? I am down -47%. We all anticipated that Fed was supposed to cut the rate if the war hasn’t started like out of nowhere and if \[redacted\] didn’t happen the bond yield wouldn’t have been +5% like now, which made the bond price crashed rapidly and unexpectedly. The bond yield and the Fed hike rate made the market mooned when it should have been the opposite which is fine because I hold other stocks too, but it is only harming TMF and TLT is what I don’t get. It’s like those who hold the bond bull ETF are only hurting badly in this weirdest timeline ever.

darthjoe101

What’s that TMF mover about? I’m curious

Own-Recipe5908

If TLT yield hits 6% I'm selling all my short term bonds and throwing them into TMF, fuck it.

madalytical

my port is 30% TMF (3X BULLISH TLT); with avg of $40 Whether TLT likes it or not, it'll touch +$100 Am I early? Absolutely Am I regarded? Without doubt Am I gonna make gains? 10000% unquestionable Mark this post; I'm always early, but so very rarely wrong

Sufficient-Flan1565

Wish it could make a trip to the 50s. I’ll go all in TMF

baconography

TMF if you nasty

pmotiveforce

I'm gonna catch that sweet, sweet TMF nadir.

Putrid_Pollution3455

When things finally crap the bed, TLT and TMF will shoot the moon. Since 2022 it’s been nothing but pain

Apple2o

TMF

sls2nd

TMF then 3x the leverage 3x the fun

BagholderForLyfe

TMF?

Sherlock-Romes

Why buy TLT when you can buy TMF with 3x leverage 🐸

madalytical

my port is 30% long-US-treasuries TMF 3X BULLISH prepare to witness an epic rally like no other, it will be absolutely out of this world mark this post

Putrid_Pollution3455

Tlt is my personal holding, but if you want to be a retard and add leverage I think TMF?

tarrat_3323

pffft TMF or bust

tarrat_3323

fucking it, TMF that shit!

madalytical

100% no rate hike of any kind whatsoever mark this post; it'll NEVER happen US long-term treasuries will SKYROCKET My port is 25% TMF

pmotiveforce

Hmm.. might be the time to anticipate the fraud to come and just go all the fuck in on TMF calls.

ericthedisrespectful

scotty b will save my TMF position, r-right?

CUbuffGuy

TMV while people run up bonds on panik. Then in 6 months TMF when we get back to cutting

LectureNo1620

TMF looking juicy

Spac55

TLT, TMF, going green

Insanity_-_Wolf

TMF down 30k on leveraged 3x treasuries.

wf1980

The market is fascinating. People can look at the exact same scenario and come to completely different conclusions. In my case, I'm betting heavily on rates coming down. I'm even selling OTM CSPs on TMF. Trading options makes it even more fascinating because you and I can both make money at the same time, even if only one of us is right about the direction of the TLT.

Spac55

Fed is talking less, feels hawkish, it doesn’t mean he will raise rate. Fed & Treasury both work with same interest, to make strong economy. 10Yr bump by Bond jokers, like they expect 6 rate hike in 2021, never got one. $TLT $TMF $BND $SPY $QQQ $SMH don’t see any systemic risk

ericthedisrespectful

do i buy TMF yet?

Commercial_Seat_3704

I agree with the direction but I think we will see yields continue to rise while equities hang on for dear life. I think equities start to break when the 10y is 5.5%. Then I will load up on TMF.

Own-Recipe5908

I wish I bought more TMF. Oh well, got a decent amount on the dip.

No_Locksmith_7965

TMF for real men

jnas_19

RIP to the 3 people who for some reason bought $TMF

Spac55

$TMF 40 -45. by end of year

FunkyGrowMan

Got smoked on those TMF calls

Own-Recipe5908

C'mon don't fade TMF. PUMP! Obviously this real CPI means no hike in the near future is alright, right?

FunkyGrowMan

TMF calls baby

Elrondel

Yeah I'm down 90% on $TMF so this would be cool I guess

FunkyGrowMan

just bought weeklies on TMF.

Snowbrawler

Could be worse though, TMF

Own-Recipe5908

Starting to regret not buying more TMF.

Own-Recipe5908

Lol, revenge buying TMF yesterday is actually paying off.

Own-Recipe5908

My 500 TMF is also looking pretty OK.

Own-Recipe5908

Shit, I got 500 shares of TMF. I'm with you. For a percent or two. Hopefully.

Own-Recipe5908

TMF.

Own-Recipe5908

I mean, bond market collapses happened all the time post-WW2. I think current fed has basically given up. They'll raise a little but it won't be as fast as '22 I'd guess. Either way, the way to play that is TLT and TMF short or longs.

Own-Recipe5908

I just need a 1.5% day and I'm done for the year. So of course, everything will go the opposite of what I buy. Bought a lot of TMF/TLT friday, so interest rates up, right?

crossdefaults

I tried long short TQQQ and short TMF dollar cost averaging in starting in 2021 cuz I read about it on Reddit and lost a ton of money.

NOT_A_OFFICER

TMF says that a 5k investment in micron right now might be worth a whopping $6750 in just two years time. :pika:

throwaway9gk0k4k569

Check this on Monday https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMF/

WorkSucks135

Liquidity sucks on EDV options. Even though TLT isn't quite as long duration the better liquidity more than makes up for that. Even TMF is better. 

madalytical

the USD is 100000% going to drop to about 90 mark this post, month(s) if not week(s) US Treasuries are going to SKYROCKET My ports 20% TMF; I'm the 1% Here's the next stocks that will explode sky-high, remember to mark it and watch how the 1% destroys the market time and time again NKE, BSX, PYPL, WHR, PEP, SNAP Here's a taste, u don't have to buy jack, that ain't the point, the point is, watch how I know, without ANY crystal balls, that these stocks will go sky-high within week(s); ensure u eliminate ur ego, and educate urself from those that win do remember to have fun, the markets beautiful! and one more thing, the market is on fumes at the moment, prepare to hold significant cash positions as a 6-12 month crash is about to occur, no less than -30% to the S&P, but it won't happen till equities, crypto and treasuries rally together, which they 100% will against all odds and logic mark it, I insist, 3 months MAX

Spac55

$TLT $TMF going high

Spac55

$TMF for $TLT Interest rate drop soon

alexmark002

I will go slow and small. My majority portfolio are on long term bonds (TLT and TMF) Disinflation is taking place. The inflation is only happening on services, and everything else is in disinflation. that includes memory products. I'm watching the prices everyday.

Stonks303

Kind of. Hedgefundie used TMF which was 3X levered 30 year bonds. But during inflation that fell too. I’m not sure if HEFA ever recovered due to TMF’s decline.

Visua1Mod

Sounds like options on TMF is your drug.

madalytical

US Treasuries, especially long-term ones, are going to EXPLODE upwards in value TLT/TMF, we're weeks away mark this post and watch it happen against all odds; party forth!

pmotiveforce

My TMF 31 Nov calls been pumping. Up 80% on them since I bought them in mid may. Get on the money train.

New-Specialist-2594

60/40 is Old age. Bonds havn't worked for years, at least Long term ones. Hell TMF a 3x LETF 20yr I've had short for years.

mikestorm

Just getting back to zero means you're probably still in the hole though. I made a couple of dipshit decisions with TMF back in 2022 and my portfolio was decimated by like 60%. It took me 3 years to break even but even then the benchmark that I was holding myself to had appreciated another 20% in the interim. Beating the benchmark (let's say SPY) is the 'real' break even.

madalytical

in very simple terms, it has a portion to do with AI, but not so much a pop; think of it as massive liquidation in order to realize large portions of profit, such profit is then utilized to purchase other equities that have taken a beating, and on top, the current bond market has been obliterated for many years and very "undesired"; however, countries the world over do not have anything remotely of value in terms of country-power compared to the USA and any investor the world over would significantly favor US Treasuries over any other, especially in their current state (gold will tank sub-4k in week(s)) which further exasperates the situation for treasuries there will a massive flight to safety however it will be short-termed, short-termed, not long-term whatsoever; the time to liquidate major positions is NOW, and that's specifically for positions that have gone astronomical as of late, leaving a large portion holding major bags and for extended periods (can be seen from lightyears away) US Treasuries are going to SKYROCKET BEYOND BELIEF and they're week(s) away I'm 20% in long-term treasuries, keep an eye on TLT and TMF (TMF is where my 20% is and it delivers 3xTLT) mark this post and come back to it week(s) later, take me to the cleaners or don't hesitate to PayPal me with some love PATHETICALLY easy, and I stress the PATHETIC

Thecreamcheeze

I bought 250k of TMF Friday lol. 😂

Phx_trojan

you're long bonds? what, TMF?

Good_Ride_2508

Markets are sensitive for the prices and economy. U.S. gas prices have surged by roughly **50%** since the U.S. military conflict with Iran began in late February. There is no sign of prices coming down for US gas. Knowing all these, market pulled to ATH after ATH and now started with volatility. Review similar Bond yield hike happened before covid in 2020 (TMF spiked high) and before a crash in 2025 (Jan 15th around when I bought TLT and TMF -spiked 27%) [https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR](https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR)

Good_Ride_2508

If you really look at basic concept of investing,buy low and sell high, the bond is worth buying now. Last 7-10 days before, I was telling market can not sustain ATH high and bound to go down, many did not believe that, but I sold all my stocks and moved to cash only at that time. Now, Bonds are at low price, I started buying TLT and even TMF as swing trade (just the same way I did in 2025 Jan-Mar timeframe). Positioning Gold and Silver is fine, but that may not give better returns than TMF. Real estate is worst as mortgage rates (by product of 10 year bond Yield) are high and cripples economy soon. The high yield can not sustain any more. The US20Y is 5.19% and the max it can reach 5.25%, that makes the economical crash soon. IMHO, the so called Guru's ideas look wrong.

FreeEnergy001

OP have you seen the [UPRO/TMF strategy](https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/hedgefundie-adventure/)? Adding some bonds to help with recovery if the leveraged ETF drops again might be a good risk mitigation.

KaChing801

TMF: 3x Long Bond ETF currently at record lows ("Blood in the streets"). Bond yields currently look primed to break higher on high inflation worries. Look for this to materialize, driving a slump in the overall US market. Similar to 2019-2020 response to tariff backlash and the COVID Crash, expect the FED to begin buying up long bonds in response, generating a potential 13x return. Then swiftly rotate into your favorite beaten down tech stocks at that time (eg. TQQQ, SOXL) to ride that wave back up.

pmotiveforce

Hmm.. Nov 32C for TMF looking tempting. They are gonna fraud those rates back down one way or another.

vremains

I just looked at TMF, I suppose I should look into it more... But it being down like 90% from 2020 seems strange. Is that bad?

miasanmike

Calls on TMF. Puts on SPX. Close that spread I mentioned.

UncouthMarvin

TMF?

bemeandnotyou

No doubt, however everyone keeps missing the fact that we are losing white collar jobs at a pace we've never seen before, that coupled with low hire? and Loss of a lot of entry level jobs that was taken over/assumed by AI agents. What will be the second round effect on consumer spending??? I see a clear path for K Warsh to a least make a coherent argument about the need for cuts. I am biased as I am in TMF... but that's why.

madalytical

20% of my port is in TMF (3x TLT) it's going to skyrocket mark it, watch it happen live enjoy the upcoming party!

bemeandnotyou

30 Y 5% was defended 3 times last month and the final one was a hard reversal' Jpan defending Oil. I say there is alot more retarded ways to lose money. I am on the same retarded train here in a different car- TMF

I_Study_The_Patterns

Bro we be stagflation, worst thing to go into. The dotplot is going to show rate cuts further out and this will tank TLT/TMF hard.

AlphaHarmony

who's getting freaky and loading up on TLT/TMF hard?

Putrid_Pollution3455

all depends on your goal; set and forget? VT. Want a lil nuance? VT/IBIT/USFR....want to crank it up a notch? SSO/KMLM/IBIT. Want some yolo-fueled inspired AI-maxing-goon-ascending hocus-pocus? YOU. The S&ME500. You work on increasing your skills and savings rate, which will dramatically help you more than finding the "next big strategy". Until your account is massive, your savings rate is more important than your asset quality....but if you insist on lighting money on fire, TECL/BITX/TMF in October and sit in USFR until then.

Spinax_52

My TMF gonna moon thanks Trump

nightly_owl_8888

This guy creates stories to command people attention and unfortunately all media and news channels follow TMF.

Elrondel

Godspeed regard, I'm still holding my $280 cost basis $TMF

Phiziqe

are there any fellow TMF gang? we have no hope for awhile like at least during 2026

alexmark002

I use TLT/TMF. The deflationary force is rising. You can see from the past few trading session. Yes oil soar, but yields are pretty stable in a tight range. Job cuts jump, the privot is arrived. Wall st will start pay attention to weakening econ rather than stagflation.

Mannimal13

I agree...why Ill be dumping my ag positions and buying TMF over the summer if this keeps up.

advantage_player

BSV is cucked, TMF or GTFO

No-Consequence-8768

Yah TMF would be great.... Not

No_Locksmith_7965

idk what it was but i felt inspired to pick up AAPL, MSFT and TMF calls long dated into end of the year and they’re all kinda moving

MagicJuggler

I have 50 shares of SGOV in reserve. I am writing a July covered call on my Franklin Resources shares, and maybe shorting TMF to hedge my TLT. That or rolling down some new puts.

bemeandnotyou

Starts buying TMF like an otter then it takes a landslide dump

sesameball

when you work as a contractor, the company you're working for will send you a 1099 as documentation of how much they paid you. You get a copy, and the government gets a copy (so the gov knows how much tax you owe). As part of volunteering for TMF, you get access to all the newsletters. It was not mentioned that i would be getting a 1099 for what they valued the services at. So in effect, TMF was saying they "paid" me $5k so that would themselves get a tax deduction for that expense. Even though the $5k is not real income.

South_Attention_8046

Can anyone give me advice on TMF? I personally think we will have a recession by the end of the year. Would this be a good investment?

MagicJuggler

I decided to hedge my TLT position with a TMF short. No way this goes tits up. Also, I survived a 0dte call for strike 680 on spy today. I got lucky.

MagicJuggler

I ended up switching from BIL to SGOV, simply because shares are easier to round to 100, and using it as a buffer to absorb any potential csp assignments. Since yields are climbing back up/mean reverting, I may want to short TMF to hedge my TLT as long options haven't quite worked for me this far.

diefy7321

Believe it or not, calls on TLT or TMF

cannythecat

Im full porting TMF. Recession is here, bul is fuk.

tarrat_3323

why stop there TMF!