TMF

cannythecat

Im full porting TMF. Recession is here, bul is fuk.

tarrat_3323

why stop there TMF!

WrexyWrex

i'm sitting pretty with my 3x leveraged TMF and you guys are about to get dumped on in the main index told you yesterday

MagicJuggler

TLT is creeping up again. Markets are in danger. I learned that 30-year bonds also have a 3x leveraged ETF, TMF. This seems like something with no way to backfire.

Happy_Discussion_536

No point. Best debasement trade is still stocks. If you think they will turn off the printer like many retards do you buy TMF.

MatrixPrecision

200 shares TMF bought friday ready for tomorrow. Ready to go green.

MatrixPrecision

Bought 200 shares TMF overnight trade at 7pm. Nice and green

Muted_Ad3810

Meh easy to say on an old position. Sure I could've been retired if I help on to my sub $2 AMD from 2015 or my $400 bitcoin. But I also would've been broke if I held on to DOGE, TMF, etc. Realistically on those old positions you'd double your money and sell rather than watching it truly go up to $100 million

Phiziqe

my TMF bag is -22.37 % rn lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lcl lol lol lol lol lol lcl lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lcl lol lol lol lol lol lol lcl lol lol lol lol lol lcl lol lol how many fake laughs?

pmotiveforce

I dunno about shorting them, but I got out of my TMF positions lickety fucking split today. Only issue is govt will just buy the fucking things to keep rates low, so shorting is kind of risky.

pmotiveforce

Yeah.. dumping my TMF asap, that shit is cratering when Europe dumps our garbage.

pmotiveforce

I just picked up some TMF for funsies.

Dazzling-Match-4746

$117k in UNH and UNHG and $9k in TMF, $14k in ETH, and $68k in CNC. And some calls mixed in too

Got_Engineers

TLT and TMF are at month long lows. Great time to buy

Phiziqe

TMF was supposed to moon on the rate cuts but it didnt this might be cuz of m … the fruit … sweet juicy round a mix of yellow and o … ok i stop now

Phiziqe

new yr wish: i need papa jpow pamp my TMF bag hard daddyyyy plssssss

Independent-Tree-985

> Silver gang rise up > TMF gang Gang Gang rise up

Phiziqe

fellow TMF gang we are cooked its just a matter of well done or medium

daviddjg0033

You are short TLT puts for the credit and long TMV calls/TMF puts? This is a big brain trade. Why not just short /ZB futures?

Phiziqe

imagine imagining holding TMF since august last yr based on belief papa jpow cutting the rates this yr would make it moon magically and being down -20% no need to double imagine true story

manlymatt83

Just changed my f it portfolio on m1 to be 50% SOXL 50% TMF. Gonna look at it 3 years from now.

Economy-Owl-5720

Yeah I don’t know why. I read this comment awhile ago about this: “Eli5 version: stocks go down, bonds go up. TQQQ crashes, TMF likely increases. Please note, this is not an immutable law of market physics. Your typical stock sell off corresponds with a "flight to safety." This involves investors selling risky assets, and buying safe assets--treasurys are the safest asset in the world*. When you sell a stock, you don't want to keep it in cash (royal you), so you buy bonds as a safe parking space until the dust settles. As a function of increased demand for bonds (re: more people buying), the price of the existing bonds increase. In addition, fed action typically will decrease the short term lending rates. This also makes existing bonds "more expensive" (re: price goes up). So, if you eschew the TMF portion, where does the ballast come in your portfolio if the market crashes? Remember, a 30% crash in equities is a 90% crash in a 3x leveraged ETF. Someone has the chart that shows subsequent returns required for a recovery. *At the time of this writing” I think the theory is that the markets are down, bonds go up.

Tricky_Let2806

Sold all my shitty TMF for tax loss harvesting. Ugh that trade was supposed to make me big money until trump won the election

Sanskreetam

TMF and TMV show 3X returns for only one month.

Sanskreetam

|Return 1M|Symbol|Return 6M|Return YTD|Return 1Y|Return 5Y|Return 10Y|Return 20Y| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |\-1.59%|[TLT](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tlt/)|3.73%|4.56%|3.40%|\-34.86%|\-6.85%|82.91%| |\-5.76%|[TMF](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tmf/)|4.02%|\-2.08%|\-5.68%|\-87.83%|\-77.66%|\-| |6.33%|[TMV](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tmv/)|\-4.88%|\-4.57%|\-1.09%|199.29%|\-36.62%|\-|

HugeAd5056

Irony is since you said this TMF has only gone up. And depending on the data released today, it may well be over $40 again in no time… Still holding puts?

BeyondtheWrap

TMF

bemeandnotyou

TMF should be the play but Mango trying to give the poor money we don't have fked me over.

w562d67Z

Didn't someone try this already with triple leveraged UPRO and TMF, which promptly blew up in 2022?

Good_Ride_2508

This is correct, Bond is the way to go. BTW: Bagholder of TLT/TMF - biased, but I will make money like I did in Jan-Apr 2025 simply 27% return from TMF alone !

ThePoorProdigy

Your math is right, but your timeline is cherry-picked. TQQQ's 5,000%+ return from 2010-2021 happened during the most forgiving market regime possible: a secular bull run with historically low volatility, near-zero interest rates, and tech dominance . That's not a bug, it's a feature of the period. The question isn't whether TQQQ worked *then*, it's whether it works *generally*. Volatility decay isn't the killer; drawdown math is. You mentioned the 2022 chop - but here's what actually happened: TQQQ fell \~81% from peak to trough . To recover from an 81% loss requires a 426% gain. QQQ only needed \~85% to get back to highs. That asymmetry is brutal. Even if you DCA through the drop, you're deploying capital at a 3x velocity on the way down, which means each dollar buys less exposure recovery than you'd think. The 15-year backtest is survivorship bias on steroids. If you ran the same DCA starting in 2000 (the last time Nasdaq was this expensive relative to earnings), you'd be underwater for a decade. The 2000-2009 period would have wiped out 98% of your capital at the 2009 bottom. That sequence risk matters more than long-term compounding because TQQQ can take decades to recover its peak . Most humans don't have the lifespan to wait it out. Current market regime is structurally different. You're buying at \~30x QQQ earnings with rates at 4.5%. The 2010-2021 run started at 15x earnings with rates at 0%. Valuation matters when you're levered 3x because multiple compression hits you triple. A 33% QQQ drop (like 2022) becomes a 99% TQQQ drop in theory; circuit breakers would halt trading at -33% in a single day, but over a month? That's just a normal bear market . The psychological trap is underappreciated. You say "strictly looking at outcomes, not emotions" but the outcome *is* emotional. Studies show investors bail after 50% drawdowns. TQQQ's max drawdown is -81% over 5 years . That means you'd need to watch $100k turn into $19k and *still* keep buying monthly. Almost nobody does. The DCA model assumes perfect discipline that human psychology literally cannot sustain. So why not? Because you're betting on three things simultaneously: 1. Nasdaq continues 15%+ annual returns (unlikely from here) 2. Volatility stays low (unlikely in a higher-rate world) 3. You maintain perfect discipline through 80% drawdowns (statistically improbable) Miss any one and the math flips. TQQQ works in theory and worked in the past, but it's a call option on a specific market regime, not a general investment vehicle. If you must, use 2-5% of portfolio max, hedge with TMF, and treat it like a short-term tactical tool, not compounding engine.

Good_Ride_2508

On any case, they are far better than SPX when it crashes! During Jan 2025, brought TMF 2000 shares at $36.26 and sold around 46.9 in April 2025, appx 27% jump while market crashed. Now, I bought TMF at 39.75, accumulating more if price goes down, let me see in future.

ChaoticDad21

go ahead…but by the time the market recovers, you’ll still be down probably 50% on your original shares You really need to lean on a 200ma strategy will 3x or a reliable hedge, which TMF hasn’t really been recently

Good_Ride_2508

That is my intention. If you are interested "watch See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026" Otherwise, ignore this as noise. Good Luck!

Good_Ride_2508

Why short the market, better to go for BOND ETFs like TLT or VGLT or SPTL BTW: Holding only TLT in my retirement accounts and TMF in Roth Accounts until the market turmoil over ! Will cash out around Jan 26, 2026 and move to QQQ & TQQQ. See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026. RemindMe! Jan 28, 2026 FOMC meeting !

veryfatcat

All in TMF now thank me later

innatangle

Spike that mofo and start pricing in interest rate cuts, my TMF position has been bleeding for too long.

zxc123zxc123

I had been using SGOV and BIL (just with ever one let me round out my cash). Then I shifted to using BOXX because it's less work and offered more control on how I realized gains. I've slowly been moving out of the curve with sales of BOXX and going into SHY. For the long end. I have IEF for my tax-exempt and TMF for my taxable.

Good_Ride_2508

I hold TLT and TMF with 65% of my position, no other stocks or ETFs.

Good_Ride_2508

Good insight, I appreciate. This is what my thinking, past sharp drops in S&P market, TLT jumped considerably as given here [https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR](https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR) (TMF is 3x of TLT). I witnessed the same, when TLT went down to $85 range during Jan 2025, I bought with full cash selling all other investments and sold the TLT by Apr first week nice profits. Same way, I am buying now as FED is reducing FFR (of course they do not control LT rates) as a part of inflation control. TLT has potential grow (as SPX is not attractive). Even if SPX is not going down and TLT is not going up, I get 4.36% dividend return (monthly paid). Technical side, not fundamental side, my risk is less to buy TLT as $82 is the lowest of the last 15-20 years. Thank you

BigWarning8696

Market falling, yields dropping, and inflation doesn't seem to be as bad as predicted, is the trifecta for a TLT pump. I like TMF and TLTW (for fat divi)

BigWarning8696

Real estate and TLT/TMF are the only things green that I see. Metals had too big of a run recently to be a hedge now. BTC never was a good hedge

Phiziqe

I have no regrets but I think having sold a portion of my NVDL and NVDA and sinked the cash into TMF last year might be a mistake. It’s been bleeding ever since even though Fed has cut the rate, but will hold till 2027 though.

veryfatcat

Buy TMF now!!

roadsbachner

TMF was better when David was actively picking stocks. David more consistently beat the market than Tom did or does, and now that David is semi-retired it seems like Tom is stretched too thin. I think TMF is good at identifying value to buy and hold when the market is down, but they struggle to identify opportunities when valuations are generally higher and less supported by fundamentals. Seeking Alpha Quant is a useful service as a cross reference against other tools and your own research. The stocks that Quant identifies as the best have consistently beat the market in the few years I've been following them.

Good_Ride_2508

I have 70% in TLT,TMF now, 30% cash position.

FormalAd7367

yes and TMF or TLT!

Fit_Combination6988

TLT/TMF gang 😎

SainteDeus

If you don’t want to worry about managing leverage with futures just buy TMF (3x leverage long bonds)

alexmark002

TLT/TMF, the fed will flood the system with money and cut rates to zero.

Specific-Ad9935

Diversify into BNDX, TMF, VXUS

Strong-Wisest

Yes, I rolled up and out TLT call and got TMF call assigned.

aftherith

Starting to almost feel moderately smart for the sickening amount of TLT and TMF I purchased a while ago. This likely still ends with my tears and lost porn somehow.

Fit_Combination6988

TLT and TMF gang checking in 🤙 if anything were to happen to bonds though, then we are seriously fucked. One way to read the gold rush is that the global economy is losing trust in the US hegemony, we do not want that

Good_Ride_2508

Just came for your help, This SPX/NDX must go down at its current phase, safer is TLT & TMF. This is my algorithmic finding and I never failed last 8 years RemindMe! 14 Apr 2026 check with me ! At present , holding SPY or QQQ is riskier than TLT & TMF.

Good_Ride_2508

RemindMe! 14 Apr 2026 At present , holding SPY or QQQ is riskier than TLT & TMF. Even you do not have crystall ball that SPX or QQQ will be up by  4/14/26 !

Good_Ride_2508

I agree with your sentiments, sold all the stocks and moved to TLT/TMF side, holding for next 6 months.

Good_Ride_2508

**Title question**: If stocks are at an all time high and gold is at a an all time high, then what is not at an all time high **My asnwer**: US treasury ETFs are not all time high, buy TLT and TMF (I believed that and bought TLT on Thursday).

anamethatsnottaken

Short term bonds have very little upside to go up on. Truly cash equivalent is getting the overnight rate and that's unaffected by the markets. Cash equivalent bonds are three months or shorter. So unless they're trading at a negative yield the most they could go up is ~1% (bills expiring jan 13 are trading for 99.04$ per 100$ face value). I have no idea what the comment was talking about. And then they reply with TMF which is long duration. I get it might go up in a crash due to flight to safety, but I think it'll go down as more and more participants realise inflation isn't going below 3% and a 1% real yield isn't worth it

310Topdog

Sure I'm long TMF a leveraged 3x 20 year bond rn. Seems the easy money trade for the next year other than Antimony UAMY

ListerineInMyPeehole

Was TMF long the play

smitra00

TQQQ shorts are for the longer term TQQQ decays relative to the NASDAQ so that's ideal for trading the correction that will eventually come. SQQQ doesn't decay all that much, but I short SQQQ instead of opening longs for NASDAQ because shorting is free of charge at my broker while going long directly incurs daily fees. SOXS and SOXL decay very fast, and I want to be short the semis in case the market would go up and that's automatically implemented by shorting both SOXS and SOXL. We'll likely get a rotation to the financial sector, shorting FAZ has the advantage that FAZ decays over time. I'm long TMF instead of short TBT because TBT incurs massive dividend fees and doesn't decay all that fast. It's worse than SQQQ in which case the slow decay is still similar to the quarterly dividend fee.

smitra00

Short NASDAQ by shorting TQQQ and shorting SQQQ as a hedge. Long VXX and also short VXX as a hedge. Long XLF by shorting FAZ Long TLT by being long TMF Neutral semis by being short SOXS and also short SOXL at the same exposures.

No-Consequence-8768

Yes I'm out of TMF short about month ago. Been a hell of 5 yrs prior tho. TLT drops below 200sma i'm in it again.

FarCommercial8434

banbet! TMF +10% 10/3/25

FarCommercial8434

Feels like TMF is about to go on a moon mission with long bonds dropping.

Good_Ride_2508

Reddit is Reddit, 141 upvotes for wrong statements/concepts! So much people are naive and they do not look history of these instruments (SPX, TLT and GLD ) Find recessions periods 2001, 2008, 2011,2016 , 2018, 2020, 2025 what happened to GLD and TLT ? Every market crash above 15% SPX drops, both TLT and GLD jumps opposite side. Between Jan 12 to April 7th, I moved my cash from TQQQ to TMF and TMF jumped from $36.5 ( bought ) to $48 ( sold )

Lumix3

At least go for the 3x leveraged bond fund. TMF.

Possible-Material693

114k in UNH, 8k in UNHG, 32k in BRK-B, and 30k in WM. UNH did most of the heavy lifting for me today. Also have 13k in ETH, 4k in BTC, and 10k in TMF

smitra00

September 23rd is dividend ex-date for many of my leveraged ETFs. I've closed my shorts for SOXS and moved the money to a long position for SOXL a few days ago. Today I may open a long position for SQQQ and if the market goes down today, I may close a few shorts for TQQQ and perhaps open a long position for TQQQ. Shorts for TBT were closed a while ago and the money was moved to a long position for TMF. I'll leave my large short position for FAZ open. On the ex-date or later I'll reverse these moves at opportune moments, closing long positions for leveraged ETFs and reopen the shorts for leveraged ETFs.

Sensitive-Good-2878

Not in this guy or gals case! Im not one to talk tho.. I lost my 15K inside of my tfsa on TMF last year. But made most of it back with IBIT. I bought the day after trump won and BTC mooned

dimethylhyperspace

I've been in and out of TMF twice this week. It's either go in to absolutely moon or tank with the rate cut..I just don't know which

Individual-Being-639

Long TMF since $36

SSN-759

For what it’s worth, TMF just hit the eject button on UPS late last week.

dimethylhyperspace

Just bought TMF for CPI and ppi + rate cuts.

Recent_Register_2952

What about TMF tho

aftherith

Well that was a loooong 5 months to get back to green on TMF. I should probably GTFO.

Recent_Register_2952

any regards trade TMF? good shit? bad shit?

dimethylhyperspace

There was like 5 or 6 BIG darkpool transactions that came thru on the TMF. Usually, these mark tops or bottoms depending on the shape of the trend. TLT has been basing out for months now

dimethylhyperspace

Damn, I feel like it's only been three days but I've already missed the move in TLT/TMF

Quick-Ad1830

TMF calls 😳

HugeAd5056

True. I have this conviction on SOFI at the moment, but that’s a long haul. Short term, similar conviction on TMF though recent events have made me think twice (tariff ruling made it pull back way more than expected)

SainteDeus

You need a leveraged hedge if you want a x3 leveraged equity ETF long term, like bonds (TMF) or bonds and gold (UGL). Bonds have historically been a good hedge, but not great with high inflation - but that’s where UGL can come in handy. Otherwise having 1.5-2x leveraged equities has historically been good and you don’t need hedges but they are more volatile.

HugeAd5056

True. TMF looking strong again today though. We’ll know soon enough on September 17th

HugeAd5056

Well, if you’re going to switch to something else with a crazy all in why not SOFI? That might make you a millionaire with a bet this size… especially with the pending rate cut. Or better yet, TMF.

No-Consequence-8768

Yeah like TMF, 20 yr T bills. They shut down few years ago.... NO they reversed split and still going. You have no idea what your talking about!

user_7486

Yeah, TMF’s been rough lately 45% allocation is definitely high risk. 😬📉

jnas_19

I cannot understate how shit TMF is in this environment. To put 45% your port in that at these levels is a tough ass pill to swallow

UncouthMarvin

55/45 UPRO TMF and chill

jnas_19

Yes, sell and go all in on TMF

DoubleEveryMonth

Jurome will capitulate to Trump. Buy calls on TMF.

hawkedmd

Anyone else finally listening to the drumbeat and all in on TMF and TLT?

Comfortable_Bat_7015

Anyone think TMF or TLT might be worth looking into in a couple months? I know interest rates are a long shot investment, but it could pay off nicely if rates start to fall down the line.

weasler7

I tried a 3x leveraged portfolio with UPRO, TQQQ, and both TMF and BTAL as hedges based on several popular back tests. TMF got destroyed in 2022 as long duration bonds got fucked as the fed was raising rates. It never functioned well enough as a hedge (and I don’t think will in the future either). BTAL actually worked well. Glad it was in the portfolio. Backtests were skewed due to long periods of slow grind up post GFC. In fact, it’s the same period when the short vol trade (XIV) was very popular. I think it could work, but you have to have immense risk tolerance. I did not- deleveraged in Jan/Feb and just went into non leveraged indexes.

haze_from_deadlock

If the federal funds rate is cut, TMF should go up in price, right?

haze_from_deadlock

Idea: TMF calls

zxc123zxc123

Well I get why OP is doing that. Probably because he's confident in AMD but not confident in the economy/market. Problem with TLT is that he should have just used TMF if it's just for insurance.

zxc123zxc123

Wait until next week when a retard goes 0DTE into INTC and uses TMF FDs as hedge.

ibeach2025

Maybe you don’t understand what TMF is lmao. It goes UP (call) when interest rates go down. Its an inverse 3X stock

ibeach2025

Bought Calls on: TMF - fed will drop interest rates SQQQ- Market sell off of S&P HIMS - Good value now Puts: SPY- $626 SPY-$627 DNUT