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Bitcoin cycles theorem - speculation about extended cycles.
Don't try to force the market to pay for your mortgage
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I didn't even like writing that or insinuating at making that assumption. And I haven't made this assumption yet. Let me be clear, it very dangerous to say "the price SHOULD have been this, damn it!". Well, it wasn't! The fact that "It WASN'T" is much greater than "it should have". The power law is more realistic IMO (for greater philosophical reasons that very few understand). There are contradictions in the STF Model(s) that don't make sense. If the Power Law model is right (and bitcoin tops anywhere from 180-220k), then PlanB must admit defeat. It feels to me like we're going to see a 250-300k price, where both Giovanni AND PlanB claim victory. Doesn't it feel like that's what's coming? Lol
I understand precaution about the STF model. But truthfully there are several STF Models and the original (what planB calls the "monthly" has been pretty damn spot on, predicting a 50-55k BTC Price last bull run. If we approach that 55k mark by the halving I'd say there is even more validity to the original monthly STF model. However, your caution is duly noted and I agree we shouldn't be putting to much stock (no pun intended) into any model or projection. Once you "see" what bitcoin is, you realize your only goal is to obtain as much as possible and the price fluctuations are meaningless.
So would you agree its fair to say that the market cap of bitcoin is pretty much always over-stated? If you do a simple google search of "bitcoin market cap" you get the 722 B number. I'd say its probably at least 3/4 of this, if not less. I don't know enough about the number of lost coins. I Just know the market cap of bitcoin seems to be overvalued. I'm not saying this is good or bad. It just seems like a matter of fact. However, does it even matter? Maybe not. I don't know. It seems like its important when considering that the STF model looked at rate of newly minted coins vs. supply, the supply probably being 19.5m or whatever it was at the time. The stock to flow would actually be lower than projected, meaning the model would be incorrect. But this is assuming the coins are lost forever. which I guess is difficult to prove.
I'm with you. If I respectfully disagree with anything, its that someone in 10 years will be "too late". I think anyone can invest at anytime, as long as they have a 5-10 year hold window or preferably more. If you'd look at my comment history, and I don't recommend you do because I'm absolutely nobody, I'm with you on this cycle. There is writing on the wall for this cycle to be different, as in "the macro aspects helping bitcoin" instead of hurting bitcoin, for one. Combine that with the movable supply going down. Everyone is snake-bit from last cycle, so they are afraid to predict the mooning that looks like its inevitably coming. Absolute worst case scenario is 180k, best case is 800k, maybe even a crazyvalue like 1.2m. An honesty opinion, most likely hit somewhere between 300k-600k before we have the cycle pull back. If I had to guess a number, it would be 450k based on the original STF model which has been dead on since inception. If we hit a 50k value by the halving, I think it would be very strong evidence that the 450k value is not only in play, but very likely (>50% chance). One thing to keep in mind, and this scares me. The temptation will be too great for some. If you're sitting on even 0.2 BTC and we're hitting values like 200k/300k, people will be very tempted to sell. Now, sit on 0.3 BTC or 0.4 BTC and it hits 800k, that's ALLOT of money for some people. And we can't really fault them. People who can maybe pay off their mortgage by selling the bitcoin they obtained for 10k is not a bad outcome for anyone. My point, there could be allot of sell pressure once we're breaking through 100k, 150k, 200k etc. In terms of buying and selling pressure, the ETF could really change this as well. Wealthy individuals who now have ETF access and are watching bitcoin hit 100k, 200k, could THEN start FOMOING in "before it hits 1m". This is the case where we see 1BTC=1M in 2025. People think its crazy. I'm not saying its likely or even probable, but its *much more likely* than some people think. There certainly seems to be a perfect storm brewing. My orange balls are ready.
The macro environment is simply letting bitcoin equalize to its natural STF (Monthly, model 1) price of \~55k. Plan B's stf model was not wrong, he just had several different stf models. His original model predicted the 55k price when bitcoin was 3k, everyone thought he was crazy. He hit 67k'ish. Guess what the original STF model price is predicting in 2025? 450k. Stay calm and breath.
You discovered the one great flaw in a traditionally safe investment: stock-to-flow rates on gold are extremely high. It has a stable value due to this high STF...thatbis until some outside event, like a gold asteroid or large gold vein in Africa disrupts the flow. There's an asteroid in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter composed of high platinum ore. So much platinum exists within this asteroid that if it were mined on earth, it would be potentially worth $50 Trillion dollars, but if it was harvested, the STF would be shattered and so would the platinum markets. You could buy an ounce for $10 instead of the present $2000.
The Spot ETF, and all the major companies getting in on it, changes the game for Bitcoin Any prediction, and STF model, andthing you think you know about Bitcoin value is destroyed when trillions of latent dollars have assess to the greatest investment of the 21st century. The true wealthy will literally see it like buying blocks of Manhttan real estate 200 years ago. In 2 years, all the 2M Bitcoin on exchanges will be gone, one way, or another.
Cycle is obviously decoupled from the math now. Price is determined by psychology and speculation. If people were actually saying there is gonna be a bull run because StOcK tO fLoW by a certain date, then got your own good assume they have no idea what they are talking about. There is no master equation that governs price and STF model is extremely crude and has high variance.
I watched his YouTube video and I think he was cautious to add a number of carefully phrased caveats, such as: “according to STF, the value of BTC could be as high as XX by XX date.” If you listen closely many of these analysts are cautious to how they frame things which gives them plenty of room to backtrack and claim later they “called it”. Nothing against, PlanB, but I just take all these analysis with a pinch of salt and instead just saddle up to enjoy the rodeo, good or bad.
STF are similar, but whereas more gold can always be mined, there will never be more than 21 million bitcoin. So, long-term the STF of bitcoin is far higher than gold based on this fact alone.
STF model to predict price is wrong, because price is about demand as well as supply. But the STF ratio on its own is a useful measure of supply hardness.
Wasn’t the STF model debunked in late 2021/early 2022?
I rarely trade on STF with over 20% of my capital. Need plenty in reserve in case the shit hits the fan (like an unexpected squeeze).
For those who think OP is over the top. check IBOVESPA prices, and market news, a lot of companies closing. Lula is a leftist guy that got a good commodities wave that held his government in place. All the other discussion abbout feelings, mysoginy etc is hand held by midia outlets, everything they call bad about any other politician lula would be as bad as, he just pays and fake it better. His supporters too will ignore any problemn with lula the don't mind it, they just want their leader in power. Lula wants to increase taxes, regulations, and wealth fare state so they have more ways to create corruption. Increasing too the number of ministeries/secretaries so he has more political structure to negotiate and get more allies ( in the end is more money to wash ). Brazil as well as the rest of south america is a narco state. Top politicians, judges and lawyers will defend and advocate to drug stuff, and even do it in quiet ways. Then they will say but it's the law. It's a slow but steady change to make things better for bandits and thieves. Everyone that were sent to jail due to corruption on politician such as Sergio Cabral and others were released already by the STF. To release Lula they changed the understanding of the law releasing with him more than 100 people just changing what the law meant. DO NOT TRUST big midia. Just don't.
Logic is dificult when talking BTC but what’s true is that any model that pre dates 2022 is completely useless. STF, Rational root spiral, halvings, all of it. The backdrop against which BTC has operated has changed so fundamentally thst the last 10yrs of performance are utterly irrelevant now. BTC won’t see any new ATH as the macro economic picture is a long way off from being a risk on environment again. Further still, the actions of SBF and others have given the likes of the FED the regulatory gun they needed. You can’t ban BTC blah blah blah. Sure, but you can make it almost impossible and pointless to own. Further still, there will be zero institutional interests. It took 10yrs to build even the slightest institutional interest, which in the grand scheme was minimal anyway and given the events of 2022 (taking macro economics out of it) institutions won’t touch this stuff ever again. Going forward if anyone ever speaks of a BTC ETF, slap them, because they are delusional! BTC (and wider crypto) is dead.
Do you know the difference between HTF and STF? Do you know what support and resistance levels mean? Do you know what market structure means? I assume you don’t, but for some reason you think traders are ignorant. While many of them make 7-8 figures/year and can do it from home or anywhere in the world, while you shlep to your 9-5 making money for someone else. But you’re the smart one huh?
Musk really needs to STF and fix his ugly cars first before saying anything else.
Well, I trusted in plan B’s STF model ( not sure if u can call this guy a random guy? If he were random Satoshi would also be a random guy ) and other indicators seemed to be in line with it until it got invalidated. I thought missing the pump would be worse than losing money at the time. Not sure if I just listen to random people, because I havent sold anything. Realized that time in the market is more important than timing it. Youve stated that Ive learned nothing. Not sure if theres anything to learn from my temporary losses, Im just holding. Or should I listen to random people like you and sell I dont need my office. I think real estate is going to crash next year. Yea, so Im selling it. Should I listen to a random stranger like you and not sell?
> everything has gone up 15% or more in the past year. Try over 50%. The "inflation" calculations they are using now-a-days exclude key food staples and energy to make it look lower than it is. Energy prices are up 50-100% in the last year. That's 100% on the Biden admin's economic policies and literally anyone with a brain called that out as coming. Because of that *alone* you've got the prices of any shipped and manufactured or farmed good increasing - the lower the STF, the higher the price increase. Now throw in the absurd amount of printing money, money laundering through foreign aid, the self-inflicted "sanctions" that do nothing but increase our costs further, and inflation's just getting started. People holding dollars and shitcoins are about to find out why gamgam washed her aluminum foil.
Surely that can't happen in few years man, it will take decades to see this change in society and that's the issue because in STF it all seems stagnant.
Just because Bitcoin did no reach $100k yet doesn't mean that STF failed.
Usually I would recommend btc at any price but at this point in time I’m not sure that’s the best option. Currently we’re in uncharted territory as this is the first time btc has strayed off plan Bs STF model. I also am concerned by the influence of figures such as Saylor/MicroStrategy etc… that own huge concentrations of btc and can greatly influence the mkt w their slightest decisions. While I am aware this does not change btcs premise it does bring about a new aura of uncertainty. I have faith in btc for the long run but amid this current bear mkt and these special circumstances I would move cautiously. Best of luck to you and your dad tho! Remember- the best way to deal with risk is to adjust your exposure
The STF Model failed years ago and he just made a new one and started shilling it he will do the same again.
I guess STF model is broken if this is the case.. dont you think so?
TA traders expecting BTC to hit ~53k, negative. STF people not caring when they get in at on a DCA day, positive. Paper handed traders loosing faith in STF because of plan b predictions, negative. Spooky news throughout the feed today, negative. Market still in fear, negative. Pessimists outnumber optimists in daily, negative. Feels like a slow move to 53k to me… And then a breakout! This is not financial advice.
Is it possible we are not going to hit the next —2-3 STF models as we typically have a blow off top that will require allot of hype to push the price up to that final target? So it’s a slingshot effect?
This would be his first miss, if his STF model didn't miss the November 2017 peak by around 300%. Beware of false prophets.
It was nearly 30 thousand dollars short the other day now it’s more like 35 thousand short of his predicted end of November price range, oh but wait that’s now not STF it his other model or is it the other other model, the guys a complete twat that’s why he’s a baseball cap with laser eyes and won’t put his real identity out there because he knows he’s talking shit.
I dont think so i think 100k will more likely be in February/march Plan Bs STF Model was wrong along time ago he created a new one to replace the old wrong one so his model is not working he just changed it to suit the previous price action when it went wrong.
The concept of the future projected values of BTC, based on the STF model, being priced in soon, is interesting.
Because STF doesn't hold up. It failed miserably in 2017. He didn't predict Tesla buying $1.5B. he didn't predict China finally killing Bitcoin in China, and he can't predict which bank or other actor in the future drops $5B on Bitcoin, affecting the price. He's been right sometimes, and he's been wrong a lot of other times, which doesn't make him special. Not impressed. All his models are trash as soon as Bank of America accepts the buying and selling of Bitcoin, or there's a US Spot ETF. When he accurately predicts that, then he's cooking with gas. Right now, he's a jabroni with an app. Give him your power, if you want. He's smoke and mirrors to me.
He and his STF were very wrong about the last bull run Said he top would be $5k, 4 years ago this month, and it was $20k Only off by 300%, so he has a lot to prove to me
PlanB is a Dutch investor and known for his in-depth knowledge of legal and quantitative finance topics. PlanB is well-known within the crypto community. He created a fascinating model called the 'stock-to-flow' (STF) model. This model explains the value of Bitcoin using the scarcity of these coins.
i think binance has STF or smart token funds which are basically crypto MFs
I think he just means hyperbolic as in ‘exaggerated’, not parabolic. He repeatedly states that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and value, and has elsewhere said that once we pass beyond available data on STF ratios we’ll be extrapolating and the model may not be useful even though the price may maintain the overall logarithmic trend.