CME

SPXQuantAlgo

Sigh… all my sources are underneath the other comment including CME itself. You ppl are really tiring…

SPXQuantAlgo

Am I though? “The term “naked option” refers to an options-focused position that is not hedged with stock. In that regard, naked options positions are viewed as “pure play” options positions.  For example, a [covered call position](https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/covered-call) involves selling a call option against an existing long stock position. That means the investor/trader owns enough stock against the short call(s) to “cover” any potential assignment.  On the other hand, if an investor/trader sells a call option, and does not own the underlying stock, that position would instead be referred to as a “naked” short call. **A naked option position may take the form of a long call, a short call, a long put, or a short put—all of which have clearly defined risk parameters**\*\*.” https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/naked-options And as per CME directly ““Naked long option positions are defined as long options…” https://www.cmegroup.com/company/membership/files/cme-group-clearing-membership-handbook.pdf?redirect=%2Fcompany%2Fmembership%2Ffiles%2FClearing-Membership-Handbook\_FINAL\_December-2009.pdf&utm\_source=chatgpt.com God I hate this sub

Objective-War-7458

Your premise is directionally correct, but fundamentally wrong. If you look at the last couple auctions for bonds, as mentioned through this thread once or twice, they've been healthy issues. Bid to cover, primary dealer, tails... All within expectations for GOOD auctions. This means there are enough buyers for current US debt. Period. Until this changes and it will most likely change suddenly. I'd argue that with yields hitting record highs, it was unsurprising that Bessent intervenned on the morning of the 20yr Bond auction (fresh, not a reissue) as the 20yr has had problems which bleed over into the stock market. This occurred on May 21, 2025 with what was an overall -2% drop in the S&P500. (Market was up +0.5% before closing down 1.5% on a 1.2 basis point increase) The May 21st auction had a tail increase of 1.2 basis points, which set a new record and sent the markets spiraling. Prior to yesterdays auction, record highs had been reached, so a new record high on the tail was all but guaranteed. Bessent defused that bomb in the AM. I bet you weren't thinking about the bomb he was trying to defuse or you would have mentioned it. So, he wasn't trying to gin up more demand, he was trying to control yields for a bond auction which has gone nuclear. And he was successful at that goal. The auction went fine, with a tail of a basis point or so, but no new record. Healthy bid to cover and low primary dealer take. The auction went fine and there are NO issues on the demand side. Where you are directionally correct are the yields hitting record highs and the severity of the structural problems they expose. In the past year, $3T-$4T has been added to the debt, we are getting close to tipping points for debt servicing vs governmental functioning. If you know "starve the beast" this could be the plan. However, I don't think this plan really was meant to happen during an active war with Iran that has exhausted our weapons stockpiles. They are very, very expensive to replace. And with oil prices working their way up, the SPR releases working their way down (for structural reasons the pumps can no longer be run fast), this is where "starve the beast" runs into real-world expensive problems that require gobs and gobs of money to solve. Which you can't do if you're starving the beast. Bessent, this morning, by indicating that he could increase the size of the bond repurchases (which are done at a discount, say 55%-70%, so not at par), pretty much indicated that the magazine is "empty". There's little to jowbone in the oil market because the SPR is constrained by physical limits on the pumps imposed by the drawdowns. Pull too fast when the SPR is low and you'll get oil/brine slurry which cavites the pump vanes literally tearing them apart. We're going to be restricted to 500k bpd draws, if we want to use the SPR. Haven't even gotten to the cavern integrity due to the brine solutions eroding the walls and support. It is actually possible for the SPR to collapse on us, rendering all the oil inaccessible, if we draw to fast. So, Bessent can't talk down the bond market, SPR is bottle-necked from draws. You're left with Presidential IEEPA authority which would crash the market if deployed PRIOR to extreme market events. You don't deploy the bazooka when the stock market is at record highs, it's sorta like the crash has to happen to grant the authority. Think of it like a nuclear bomb, which is topical, and stunningly accurate. It should be in response to another nuclear bomb and expressly not because you feel like it. A first use nuclear doctrine would destabilize the world quite quickly. Congress is divided. So they are off the board. The Fed will respond and not act pre-emptively. That would be very, very bad for presidential politics as it would be the president steering the fed through his actions, as opposed to the fed trying to optimize their dual mandate in response to political policy. Where does that leave us? We have a jawboned stock and oil market. Stock market is near record highs after a record run up - include a 5% week based on good corporate earnings and a peace deal which never came. The oil market is jawboned like crazy. Participation in the futures markets are a fraction of what they should be and crack spreads are at record highs - which means that the futures market for raw materials may be mispriced the market for intermediate and finished products is not. This could be exceptionally dangerous. Could. We don't know, hasn't happened before to my knowledge. My base expectation is when this corrects it will be violent. On the other hand, most futures are cash settled, not oil settled (outside of CME), so Brent/WTI need not experience a violent correction: there's no real oil to deliver. Just paper. And this difference may be (most likely is) what the administration is betting on. You can infinitely fake a fake market not dependent on deliverables. Does not help diesel at the pump, or LSFO in the bunker which reflect reality, so you'll be impacted even if the benchmarks are "faked". Where does this leave us? Good question. But not where you think we are. This can go on for quite some time. But Bessent is out of ammunition. Donzo. Trump is equally constrained. It could be days, it could still be weeks. The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It is my belief, however, that we hit tops. If Bessent is out of ammo, his magazine has run dry, and the jawboning is undone in hours not days, the Iran conflict (affecting oil) is functionally strategy-less, flailing and potentially ill-equipped to muster a response (which cedes the initiative to Iran), this sounds like tops. And, I do know a bit about the military - certainly more than most. I suspect we pulled out of the Korean exercises because we are unable to support them having previously moved many of the THAAD, Patriot and Naval assets to the Middle East. I don't know what else went, but with drawing prevents the embarrassment of showing up without pants and rifles (by this I mean batteries, jets and carrier strike groups) which would leak to the press, given the massive scale of the exercises. I'm gonna call tops. I don't know if this is going to be a crash or a tumble, but I haven't even gotten into private credit imploding and AI bonds/financing. All of this happening at the same time (and more) is a rare, rare, rare storm reminiscent of the GFC.

MeanTimeMeTime

So you may be mis reading me. SRW wheat futures are 6.99 per Bushel right now on CME. For etf WEAT to be 30 bucks wheat prices would only need to rally 20 percent to 8.40 per Bushel. Lastly the fertilizer piece is just 1 of the several points I make. It is far outweighed by the issues in the black sea. Also my understanding is wheat is a medium to high input crop since it gets fertilizer 2 timers per year. Once during fall planting and then again in spring for green up. So again literally just talking about a 20 to 40 percent price rally at the absolute max

MeanTimeMeTime

I get what you are saying - but we could easily see futures prices rise while the market stays in Contango. Also there are really only 3 options here. The WEAT ETF, CME Wheat futures or buying a farm. You suggesting a 4th option?

Juhkwan97

Yeah you might have to wait til they do another run of them. They came to Seattle last year but I didn't go. I'd suggest googling CBOE and CME to see what they offer. I know they do conferences but they might be for more industry level type people....

OsoPlato

Depending on what you are trading and the volume, you may want to consider getting an exchange membership to reduce costs. A broker's commission usually include the exchange fee as a significant part of the commission. If you lower that fee, your broker should lower the commission. For example, CME charges the broker $1.65 for a non-member gold option trade but charges only $0.80 if you are a member. Memberships are specific to what you are trading and can be leased for as low as $200 - $300 per month.

ManekenkaDaBudem

I bought Disney because at that time I didn't see much better opportunities, but that drastically changed and I still continued to hold. I should have bought more V, MA, RACE, BKNG or open positions is Moody's, ICE, CME, Abbott etc. 

ManekenkaDaBudem

I m literally this morning thinking of how much of Disney to trim. It's 4.6% of my portfolio. Bought year and a half ago at 91$, then added couple of times at around 112$. While I was holding, many better opportunities come and gone, and I didn't buy them because I was fully invested in things like Disney. I think the stock is not expensive and will go higher, but the problem is that some much better opportunities come and I can't react because Disney is long term investment. I can't get over for not seeing CME and ICE, two months ago. The reason I m missing such opportunities is constantly following stocks I already own while not being satisfied with. 

Scriptum_

Yes, absolutely: The CME Group (parent of COMEX) is launching AI Compute Futures.These contracts treat AI computing capacity (like GPU processing power) as a physical commodity. This allows companies to hedge volatile data center and processing costs exactly like they hedge oil or electricity.

jonnycoder4005

CME Group https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIJgms3O_lM&list=PLkJQh4MWlJksEOMuHaYxkK0-yHsrhS8kW

Apefriends

Um I’ve seen this before. Bitcoin futures CME 2017. Subsequently Bitcoin died

Cookie_Masher

It's a bit chicken and egg, no incentive to market make these single stock futures when volume is so low, and no volume because bad spreads. I also think CME were a bit late to the party because there are other alternative venues with volume in the big names, so most trading in those hours just happens there.

Sooperooser

CME really fell off

Smile961

Sourcing compute for large clients is hard, these are often 3-5 year contracts and the chips aren't even the biggest problem. Multiple parties started the idea of pricing compute and CME of course can't suffer the possibility of that revenue stream going somewhere else. The most interesting thing is whether you price for input or output. Not all chips are the same and use of them is irregular in the AI age. So when you rent what is essentially real estate you want to pay for what you use, and AI can get erratic during training and inference. Amp PBC started a promising solution on that front, pricing that output with a software solution. Hope it'll be here soon.

SignificanceLate7002

Wow. 32 single-team NHL ETFs — one for every NHL franchise. The SEC filing you supplied is the registration statement for that group Each ETF is designed to give investors exposure to the performance of a specific NHL team, rather than owning the team's stock—which generally isn't possible because almost all NHL teams are privately held. NHL team → CME team index → futures → Volatility Shares ETF So, for example, the Toronto product would give you economic exposure to an index measuring the Toronto Maple Leafs' on-ice performance rather than shares of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment.

hftrobo9285

“AI computing power is becoming a tradeable asset class as CME launches futures contracts” 🤡🤡🤡 send this shit market into the ground already

SteakEater137

**AI computing power is becoming a tradable asset class as CME launches futures contracts** Uh what the fuck is this stupid shit lmao This is such a clown market man

-sakuranbo

if CME's gonna have cryptocurrency futures, they should just go all the way and introduce weather gambling futures Chicago temperature futures or something. Tick value of 0.1℉ = $1

ihasanemail

TLDR - OP's vibe > actual numbers and analysis. This is easily among the top 5 dumbest threads on here. Dumber than the guy who got the CME face tattoo, at least he made money on the squeeze.

BarbellPadawan

It’s low fee, and transparent as well. 1) Equities totally free (there might be some exceptions on penny stocks or illiquid shit), 2) options 0.65 per contract (seems like you’re “wasting” money but I get price improvements with Schwab pretty consistently, which RH doesn’t do—if the MMs’ BA spread strikes through your limit order, Schwab will give you the better price, whereas RH will steal the arbitrage. I save way more per year on these price improvements than I pay on fees, plus I always add one penny to the a limit sell order or subtract a penny from the limit buy order so that—at least psychologically to me—the market is paying that fee), 3) Futures contracts and options on futures depend on the market specifically but it’s about a 0.50 commission to SCHW and about 2.25 to the CME—again I add or subtract a tick so that the market is “sort of” absorbing those fees completely. 4) Forex: no outright fees, the “fee” is taken out of the bid-ask spread. 5) no wire fees to and from brokerage accounts 6) their ETFs and mutual funds have extremely low expense ratios. Seriously don’t get RH. The arguments for the nice interface are true but it’s not a serious broker. If you need help or get in trouble, even if it’s a simple question, you won’t get help from RH, whereas Scwhab’s customer service is exceptional. If you do go with Schwab, having their investor checking account (which I’ve had for about 15 yrs) is amazing. No fees, and they reimburse ALL atm fees, no limits. So it’s never a problem getting cash abroad, or anywhere.

calebsurfs

Headlines like this make me wish I could buy calls on Citadel or Jane Street because they are going to make a killing this quarter. Currently holding CBOE and CME as maybe the next best thing though.

spacklock

I did the free trial of TV and when I activated it they sent me an offer for I think 30% off of annual membership. So I paid $125 for the essentials plan for the year, and I paid $84 for the annual CME group plan good for the year. So $209 total for both for the year.

spacklock

I did the free trial of TV and when I activated it they sent me an offer for I think 30% off of annual membership. So I paid $125 for the essentials plan for the year, and I paid $84 for the annual CME group plan good for the year. So $209 total for both for the year.

spacklock

You need to use ES1! / S&P 500 E-Mini Futures And it’s delayed by 10 minutes if you don’t get the CME Group market subscription https://preview.redd.it/rmc4axw8q8hh1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dca736d877a72b2c310a5916bf768ea19d3894ed

BrilliantArm5914

could have gone to CME Fedwatch Tool and seen that odds of Wednesday rate hike were in 30 to 35 percent range

BarbellPadawan

\-5% on CME open would be interesting

music_is_gud

It's already priced in. CME Fed watch priced in a 25bps hike by EOY for a while now

ten7four

Last update we're gonna get on CME fedwatch: 71.7% hold / 28.3% hike

ten7four

Probably doesn't update as often as polymarket (might lag 10-15 minutes behind) but [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is arguably considered as close to an "official" benchmark as we'd get and they currently have it at 70.6%. So that checks out

fledgling66

No, I’m perfectly happy being overweight in CME, Berkshire, ADP, Eli Lilly, and RSP. Other than that it’s just Google and TSM, both of which I bought forever ago.

Successful_Car1670

You can’t just say 0 chance CME has it increasing on the hour almost 40% now

FunkyGrowMan

CME odds for this evening: No Change - 64.2% .25% raise - 35.8% Almost never see so much dispersion the day of. Market really doesn't know whats going to happen.

RuleSafe6767

Nq registering barely a scratch.. And only down 5% on the month. Plunge protection team working overtime. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME_MINI-NQ1!/?timeframe=6M

jonneh

I'm not mad, I'm surprised I mean, CME FedWatch tool is at 38% chance of a hike. It should be much higher if Citadel thinks it's likely to happen.

Soldacki

Where to buy CME futures of single stocks?

trader_dennis

$$$ for CME.

BruceStarcrest

CME has the odds at ~60% maintain ~40% hike.  I haven’t seen them miss yet.  The larger issue is what they say about the future.  https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

IlIlIlllIlIll

CME CEO shook their magic 8 ball a buncha times and yeah, looks like 31.5%

vandalizethethief

No, the CME is worried bc Hyperliquid is 24/7 and can do 200,000 transactions in less than a second. Someone built a light crude and Brent oil perp for it and it has become very popular. It’s a very token holder friendly business with 99% of fees going into buying back coins “burning them”. It’s written into the protocol and can’t be changed by vote. They also have PURR which trades on NASDAQ and is currently trading at 0.85 to Net Asset Value. Should be at minimum .9 to .95 like a CEF when you add in expenses for running the digital treasury instrument. Most of the coins are staked, earning 2.25% APY & the constant inflow of millions per day of fees has made HYPE one of the best performing coins YTD. Goldman sold all their XRP and SOL and bought a 3% stake in PURR. Real time data: https://defillama.com/protocol/hyperliquid https://hypestrat.xyz Could be huge, could lose its market dominance idk but I bought Purr into the close all the way to $6.19 (around 300 shares total plus covered calls). I own maybe $400 in HYPE directly as well. If I see institutional selling in 13f Q2 filings I might trim but it’s in the Russell 2000 so Vanguard and all the other big ETFs hold it.

spacegrab

CME saw Korean 5x ETFs and want in on the shenanigans

jerome-yellen

(Bloomberg) -- Investors will soon have another way to bet on the hottest stocks from Nvidia Corp. to SpaceX, without trading a single share. CME Group Inc. will launch single-stock futures Monday, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on more than 50 of the largest US companies. The contracts, offering leverage without the complexity of options, will be cash-settled on the closing price of the stocks they’re tied to.

downvotescatpictures

Where did you see this? The CME faq says they won’t provide tax advice, and the IRS code specifically excludes single stock futures from the special tax treatment.

WhenGeniusFail

Let's see if the CME is better at launching new products than the CBOE.

MinutePristine1047

Oil shorts before CME open, that timing is so suspicious it’s almost a joke. Someone definitely got a phone call before the rest of us My portfolio been bleeding since June too, I don’t even look at the app anymore just the damage notifications The insider trading on these plays is so obvious but nobody ever gets in trouble for it

iTouchStuff

BREAKING: A 9-figure Axios-linked insider trader on Hyperliquid just opened a massive oil short position a few hours before the CME open today. This comes as the US and Iran have submitted their formal responses to a joint Pakistani-Qatari proposal following a US request to return to negotiations, per Al-Arabiya. "axios linked insider trader on hyperliquid" lmfao. just send the asteroid

0DTEKing

BREAKING: A 9-figure Axios-linked insider trader on Hyperliquid just opened a massive oil short position a few hours before the CME open today. This comes as the US and Iran have submitted their formal responses to a joint Pakistani-Qatari proposal following a US request to return to negotiations, per Al-Arabiya.

music_is_gud

Why would they hike rates? Just go see "CME Fedwatch" probabilities for Fed rates at the next FOMC. Anything more than 80% means that's gonna be the decision. You don't really need to be guessing

bigstoolbigtool

CME odds point to another hike while oil climbs. Markets look pretty shaky heading into Monday.

Full_Pear449

CME Rate Tool, you should read it sometime , or actually trade on it. Open up an account and join us Upcoming Meeting Probabilities (July 29, 2026) * **No Change (3.50% - 3.75% range):** \~62% probability * **Rate Hike (+25 bps):** \~38% probability \[[1](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/fed-interest-rate-odds-oil-jobless-claims.html), [2](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/348323916355649)\] Future Meeting Outlook (September 2026) * **Cumulative Hike Pricing:** Markets price an 82% likelihood of a rate increase by the September FOMC meeting. * **Driving Factors:** Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing Brent crude oil near $100 a barrel.

ThatMasterpiece2174

\>Investors are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates as soon as next week as the resurgence in oil prices triggered by the escalating war in Iran threatens to ignite a fresh burst of inflation.  \>Markets are pricing in a 38 per cent chance that the Fed will lift rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, up from just 13 per cent a week ago, according to CME Group data based on federal funds futures. \>The increase in rate-rise odds highlights how Fed chair Kevin Warsh is coming under growing pressure to show that the US central bank is prepared to contain a fresh jolt of inflation. It marks a sharp shift in sentiment since July 14, when a subdued consumer price index reading sent rate rise odds tumbling. “The July Fed meeting is definitely live. It is very questionable whether monetary policy is restrictive at the moment,” said Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy, Bank of America. “And oil is now rising again.” Robert Sockin, chief US economist at PGIM, a $1.4tn asset manager, described next week’s meeting as “almost a 50-50 call”. Brent crude breached $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May as Donald Trump said he was weighing a “massive attack” on Iran, leaving the oil benchmark up 25 per cent since the June Fed meeting. Prices for petrol and diesel have shot higher in recent weeks, raising costs for both consumers and US industry. Investors said there was unusually high uncertainty over the Fed’s plans for next week’s two-day meeting since Warsh has remained more tight-lipped about his views on the economy than his predecessor Jay Powell, who rarely left markets guessing on the central bank’s next moves. CME Group said trading in federal funds futures ahead of the meeting had been 50 per cent higher than the July 2025 decision, when markets had correctly priced in a 96 per cent probability the US central bank would hold rates at this point in the run-up. Agha Mirza, global head of rates and OTC products at CME Group, said the higher volumes were “caused by the increasing chatter about whether the market was correctly pricing in a low probability of a rate rise, given Warsh’s vigilance on inflation”. Warsh told Congress earlier this month that he would have “no tolerance” for persistently high inflation but offered few clues on policy plans. The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge was 4.1 per cent in May, more than double its 2 per cent target. Some investors and economists say that if bets on rate rises mount further in the run-up to the Fed decision, it could force policymakers into a rate increase. “When the Fed has missed on inflation for this long, if the market prices a hike and the Fed does not deliver, what they are doing is easing in the face of market expectations,” Cabana said. The 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee also have some way to go to reach a unanimous decision. Lorie Logan, the president of the Dallas Fed, and Beth Hammack, her counterpart at the Cleveland Fed, have both said the US central bank has waited long enough to get on top of an inflation problem that continues to weigh on American households and businesses. Another voting FOMC president — Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari — could also back a rate rise, even if the majority opts to keep borrowing costs on hold. “Hawkishness in the Fed is reaching a type of critical mass,” said Sockin. Donald Trump’s tariffs and the AI boom, which has sent prices for chips and other parts soaring, threaten to keep price pressures in the US economy elevated, even if tensions with Iran ease, economists said. “Inflation is hotter for reasons that have very little to do with oil — there’s a little bit of tariff pass-through, there’s demand in the system from AI and then there’s this chunk of inflation due to services that we haven’t been able to squeeze out of the system for a few years,” said Edward Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle. Influential voices on the FOMC, such as New York Fed president John Williams, have suggested waiting until September to decide on a rate rise, which would provide more time to see how inflation plays out this summer. Some think the cooler-than-anticipated consumer price index reading for June, which showed inflation at 3.5 per cent, could persuade others on the committee to follow suit. “They’re going to be talking seriously about the pros and cons of a rate hike,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed official who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors. “But looking at the commentary from various Fed officials, I just don’t see a majority in favour of raising rates already.” Eric Wallerstein, a former adviser to ex-Fed governor [Stephen Miran](https://www.ft.com/content/f0b24cda-de76-41c0-9464-ac1dba7633c3) who is now at Clocktower Group, added that, “now’s not the time for shock and awe, given that there’s nothing in the underlying data that justifies a surprise”. Others argue that Warsh, who took over from Powell in May, has an opportunity next week to show that he is an inflation fighter and that he is serious about returning price growth to the central bank’s target. “Why wait till September if you can just do it now?” said Joe Lavorgna, chief US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America and former economic counsellor for US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent. Lavorgna added that Warsh could handle the political fallout from Trump — who consistently attacked Powell for keeping interest rates too high — by pointing out to the US president that taking a firm stand on inflation now could help lower long-term borrowing costs, which are driven by expectations for inflation in the coming years. https://preview.redd.it/eftmofjorgfh1.png?width=1470&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9cb1f48b7ffb23f19777ef08670c385bb482382 “If I’m Kevin Warsh, I’d go to the White House and say: ‘Mr President, we hiked rates, but actually lowered long-term borrowing costs for corporates and, more importantly, for households,’” he said. “And, at the short end, people will get paid more interest on their savings. It’s a win-win.”

-sakuranbo

CME removed the "pending CFTC approval" footnote for Single Stock Futures. Monday's gonna be fun

Textosterone69

In all my years I’ve never seen anyone model expiring options cause the Greeks don’t matter. It’s either in the money or out that’s all you should worry about. Collect the premium or pay out. We were told as new traders to take out the expiring month when analyzing our positions. That being said, there’s options software that does what if scenarios like you’re doing. CME offers CME direct software.

JaggedLittlePiII

For the opposite of the above trade - same symbol as the OP, just opposite directions (write the call). Match his dates For oil - CME CL, and follow the direction of the skew. If you do not understand those words, stick to more vanilla products until you do.

michal939

It's relevant for inter-exchange trading, you can exploit arbitrage opportunities between for example NYSE and CME better if you can send one to the other a few milliseconds faster

teh_herper

pulling an ol trick from CME's book i see

Garbage-Disposal-938

if you don't like the stress of waiting to find out what happens tomorrow, the NYSE and CME will offer -1DTE options. just give them some money. they'll tell you immediately what you invested in yesterday and how much you lost.

SupraTacky

Check out CME, Cboe if you want to play the market volatility. They trade around fair value but I think the inflation data and this war continuance is going to keep putting pressure on overextended sectors.

Icy-Necessary3904

As of right now the CME is pricing rates to stay constant at 65% or so… the remainder pricing on 25 bps hike. The problem with commodities is they’ve got no dividend so the opportunity cost of buying bonds/CDs at a higher fixed rate causes more pressure to the downside. With about 2 weeks some things can change, although I am confident they won’t hike rates on any new report due to priced in expectations.. I would position myself for a 50-75 bps hike by EOY. Best bet: go heavier on floating rate bonds (65/35 port go 55/45).

Vast_Ad_8414

Download the CME app It’s very useful and includes all the economic data

-sakuranbo

ES is part of CME and trades 24/5. Single-stock futures releasing July 27 unless CFTC blocks them

MarginCalledManager

CME doesn’t have 24/5 anything, and they don’t offer futures on a stock.

-sakuranbo

imagine the beautiful price swings when MU futures release on CME (24/5 global trading)

Familiar-Suspect730

For oil research, I try to separate the headline from the actual supply-demand data. Geopolitical events can move prices quickly, but the long-term direction usually comes down to barrels, inventories, demand, and spare capacity. The sources I find most useful are: - EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) – excellent for production, inventory, and U.S./global market data. - IEA Oil Market Report – one of the best sources for global supply, demand, and trade flow analysis. - OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – useful for producer-side data and forecasts. - CME/ICE futures data – helps understand what the market is pricing in. For situations like the Strait of Hormuz, I would focus less on media headlines and more on: 1. Actual tanker flows and export volumes. 2. Global inventory changes. 3. Spare production capacity. 4. Refinery capacity and product markets. 5. Whether demand is strong enough to absorb higher prices. The market can sometimes look irrational because prices are forward-looking. If traders believe a disruption will be temporary, prices may not react as much as the headline suggests. The key is identifying whether the disruption changes the long-term supply-demand balance or is only a short-term shock. The IEA Oil Market Report is probably the best starting point because it combines supply, demand, inventories, and trade analysis in one place.

the_humeister

> A second, unrelated source reads the same calm. On Polymarket, the contract on the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the July meeting sits around 84.5% on close to 10 million dollars of volume, with a hike priced roughly 3 to 4 times more likely than a cut. So both futures positioning and a prediction market are leaning on low volatility at the same time. VIX near 15 fits that too, and the same COT data shows speculators still net short volatility. Why use Polymarket bets instead of CME Fedwatch? Or go straight to the futures contracts to assess probability.

GneissFrog

[CFTC to block CME's plan for 24/7 crude oil futures trading](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/cftc-block-cmes-plan-247-crude-oil-futures-trading-2026-07-09/) This administration is applying pressure from all angles to suppress oil prices while this Iran conflict lingers on. Long oil might be the 'correct' play, but that doesn't always mean it will return a profit. Seems like the odds are stacked against USO right now

RagingBearBull

fun fact. The CME is now jsut mailing people an envolope with 1000 pages, each with a picture of a barrel of oil. They discovered that yes, yes you can print oil!

kvndoom

CME has to lower their margin rates on metals. Hiking those rates multiple times crashed it in January.

barelyreadsenglish

Following the new military strikes investors increased the odds to about one in three that the Fed would raise rates at the upcoming July 28-29 meeting, and to around 70% that rates would rise by or at the September 15-16 session, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds jumped.

subpar321

CME fedwatch had a huge change after that jobs report, rate hike odds got slashed

HardradaTheKing

You could pick sectors that are down. This way you spread the risks over multiple stocks in a sector you deem good to hold for a couple of years. My advise would be to look at healthcare, financials and software. Also think about buying some CBOE, ICE or CME as a volatility hedge. If you wanna get more spicy, pick a small amount of AI infrastructure stocks like Marvell, Coherent, Arista or Credo. Safer AI would be Nvidia; since it is getting cheaper by the quarter. Stocks go up and down, but when in doubt: zoom out.

MarginCalledManager

They don’t. CME group futures contracts and options open every Sunday at 6 eastern. They close today at 1 eastern. No one gives a shit about index options. Futures market is where the real money is 23 hours a day.

MarginCalledManager

Except all CME Group futures contracts and options are open, where the real money trades If you’re not trading e-mini S&P options 23 hours a day you’re gambling wrong.

Consistent_Panda5891

CME Group stock. If there is a crash it will be green because of puts, if it there is upside green because of calls. Casino always wins...

dataCollector42069

Bought 100 shares of CME at $220 to snipe the dip. Think this is clear for an easy $240 and will set a drop

dataCollector42069

CME stock looks like a buy here

creemeeseason

It might be debt for ICE, but the whole sector is getting crushed. Even low debt names like CME and MIAX are massively down. The selloff really got going when new competition was announced in Bitcoin futures, so I'm guessing it's more competitive concerns with AI making new markets possible.

CD274

Yeah the CME globex site is shit to navigate and I use my broker but that's not a public feed. If he just meant a rough idea what the market will open at the tech index is easy

theSherlockView

Started off with raise at 54, then there was a sector wide sell off due to US allowing competition on perpetuals for bitcoin i think. I think the suggestion was it could grow to other sectors causing CME/ICE to sell off hard. But I think Abaxx got caught up in it even though their business model is different. Focusing on physically settled futures + new T+0 tech for 24/7 trading. Then the short report hit, if you read it, you would see how terrible it was. They make up financials, and they don't even know how futures contracts work. Abaxx responded with hiring lawyers. But the report did its job, people panic sold causing further drops. Then I think it lead to people selling thinking they will just by back lower and trade this. Eventually there is a lower limit. I think its close to around that but its impossible to know. Seems like shorts haven't covered at all yet. If they start, then everyone panic selling will probably fomo back in. I have heard fidelity family office has been adding on these dips as well

GAV17

He said this year, not next meeting. Go look at the tool from the CME you are using, at the top you can see the dates of future FOMC meetings. Click on the last one for this year, December 9th. The probability of the rate going up according to futures during this year, is 77%. You may disagree with this percentages, but I'm not wrong, that's what the market as of right now predicts for the remaining of 2026.

22ndanditsnormalhere

What about CME group, do they have a moat?

Zipski577

Not sure what you are looking at but NQ1 (Nasdaq 100 E-Mini) on CME closed at 4PM at 29,512.50. CME, which is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the official futures exchange. It’s AH high was 30,154.25 (that is 2.17%, or 214 bps - not 500) It is currently at 29,928 and falling. That is -0.75% from the AH high. -75 bps from where the initial spike from MU earnings fizzled out. This says into AH close.. from 7:45 to 9PM ET it fell by 50 bps. Now 75 as of 10:15PM.

music_is_gud

Not at all Lol I *never* said he will cut this ine. Long term, yes. There was no way he was gonna cut this time. I use CME Fed watch to infer my opinions on fed reserve decisions

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

You buy AI and SpaceX, fine. I buy US oil producers ! MTDR - SM - DVN - OXY - XOM There is no "peace plan" US-Iran. The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories. Be ready

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

What to buy?? US oil producers !! MTDR - SM - DEVON - OXY - XOM The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories.

music_is_gud

Idk why you regards are guessing on rate cuts. Go to CME Fed watch and see the probability of rate cuts. Anything greater than 80% chance means that's what will happen.

redditcommentguy

Reallocated recently to \- RSP \- TSM (been in this one for a bit already) \- GOOG (been in this one for a bit already) \- CME \- ETN \- NVO \- MGM \- XLE \- RTX \- GLDM

Poptart_Salad

The FedWatch tool at CME group website shows 99.6% chance of unchanged so yeah.

AllCapNoBrake

CME gap being filled at 193.

AllCapNoBrake

$SPCE CME gap about to be FILLED https://preview.redd.it/ng76bjwf7p7h1.jpeg?width=109&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d3b9f7599cfd349ef31077ae51791b4ecca6ba1

iShitBloodandCumShit

🤯 it all makes sense why all the block trades reported by CME were on oil futures yesterday. Those fuckers let us pump SPX/NDX so they could use us as exit liquidity.

FuckedUpImagery

CME fedwatch

creemeeseason

Using [CME fedwatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), there is roughly a 0.6% chance of cuts by December. This meeting is probably not going to happen (96% chance of no change) but there hasn't been much move yet longer term.

iShitBloodandCumShit

In case you missed it. CME is releasing micro emini cash settled options soon which will be based on the actual index futures value and not shit like SPX 6000 vs XSP 600. I’m kinda excited for it.

iShitBloodandCumShit

They are better than XND lmao. CME is releasing micro emini cash settled options soon which will be based on the actual index futures value and not shit like 600 vs 6000. I’m kinda excited for it.

ZYHUA

you trust crypto shit instead of CME futures? lol

Zestyclose-Ad3518

This is one of many messages and calls from CME and his clearing firm before his contract expired into delivery. No gotcha surprises.

InternationalFly6869

By that definition the CME isn’t an exchange either. Nobody’s handing over barrels of oil at NYMEX, yet somehow oil ‘trades’ every day. Wild concept, I know 🤡

CriticismOtherwise78

CAVA with 10% of the stores that CME has and it's 22% of their market cap and creeping up.

HeirophantGreen

So what happened to that guy who had to go pick up 80,000 lbs of live cows because he was trading cattle futures on CME? lol