Reddit Posts
Last week's market performance and economic news review
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 29 - Feb 04 2024
Dear TDA or Schwab peeps - can you help out? - CFTC combos with opts & spot
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 22-28 2024
Summary of FOMC voters' speeches in January 2024 - very meaningful for interest rates movement ahead!
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 15-21 2024
BANBET: The 10y-2y treasury spread is gonna go >1% by Jan 2025. $50k on the table.
Rate cuts chances INCREASED after hot cpi
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 08-14 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 01-07 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 25-31 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 27 - Dec 03 2023
Wall Street Journal - Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 20-26 2023
How to trade the newish micro Midcap 400 and SmallCap 600 stock index futures?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 13-19 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 06-12 2023
FOMC Coming Up, Pullback Bid In View For XAUUSD
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 30 - Nov 05 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 23-29 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 16-22 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 09-15 2023
just spitballin' ... the "Wheel" except with forex -- is there a name for this ?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 02-08 2023
The everything Bubble and why it can’t be blown up again.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 25 - Oct 01 2023
Where may I buy Bitcoin/Ether LEAPS options in the United States?
Macro Support In View For The XAUUSD (GOLD)!!
Hopefully a redditor (?) can provide input -- JPY:USD spot forex position fully hedged via CME JPY
September 20, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Statement
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 11-17 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 28 - Sep 03 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 21-27 2023
CME Group and CF Benchmarks Launch BTC and ETH Reference Rates
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 14-20 2023
Interest rates should stay around 5% for longer — even as inflation falls, top economist Jim O’Neill says
A Time Traveler's strategy (Final). Reinvestment of profits according to the Kelly criterion.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 07-13 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 31-August 6 2023
How does a small business (really small) hedge their exchange risk exposure? I need to hedge only $1000 exposure to Yen but cannot find a future contract this small. Any help or advice?
July 26, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 24-30 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 17-23 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 10-16 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 10th, 2023
CME Group: if you think WTI is a manipulated commodity or a necessity- it once upon a time was until 1983
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 03-09 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 26 - July 02 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 19-25 2023
The Hawkish Pause… 6-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
June 14, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
The Fed will be making a big mistake if it skips a rate hike today, top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns
Is there a BoEWatch tool to measure market sentiment to rate rise expectations?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 12-18 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 05-11 2023
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chan
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chance of two 0.25% rate hikes in July)
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 29-June 4 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 22-28 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 15-21 2023
How can you trade interest rate futures as a retail investor?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 08-14 2023
Stock futures are flat as traders await inflation data later this week
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
May 3, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Stocks could soon retest all-time highs as markets react to possible 'thesis-changing' final rate hike from the Fed
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 01-07 2023
Market Recap - 4/25/23 - Economy is flashing red while companies beating estimations left and right
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 24 - .May 01 2023
The Federal Reserves Internal Turmoil, Recent Economic Reports and How To Profit - The Case for NUGT, UGL, AGQ, and Crypto
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 17-23 2023
Mentions
We are raising margin limits because we don’t want poors making money - CME probably
and you think an already highly pumped SLV with CME margin calls and weak chinese guidance (given that they could switch up any day) is the move?
Just learned that the CME kept the margin rates elevated for 9 months after raising them in 2011, so people shouldn't expect a reversal on that anytime soon. All this talk about decoupling from physical prices in Shanghai is interesting; but I think it's obvious that things would really have to be wildly different for the CME to change its playbook.
Silver is already coiling to the upside after the historic CME margin raise.
Member the CME outage because of 'cooling'?
Yea, Puts. CME raised the margin requirements again.
Ho-lee shit. If these were OCC options, I'd run, but frankly I don't know how CME option assignment works. I guess I should read up before being alarmist.
I hope Hindenburg research writes a research paper on CME and comex before giving them the GME shorted-to-the-basement treatement pre-deepfuckingvalue.
CME said that’s enough of you guys getting rich off silver, back down she goes 💰
CME hiked margin requirements by 30% last night.
CME keeps raising margins on futures for metals to tamp down speculation, all of them are getting hit. Be patient
No buy the miners. They are leveraged bets on silver anyways and SLV can get slammed by CME rule changes.
When it comes to silver the CME changed the rules for the 3rd time this month. THEY ARE DESPERATE! Silver going to run 2026 and it looks like they trying to stop it.
Buy the miners or physical not anything else short dated. The CME manipulated the price by changing the rules for the 3rd time this month it's just a gamble and the manipulators is in charge.
\*This comment bought and paid for by the CME\*
How to short CME group??
CME massively increased margin and maintenance requirements AGAIN https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2025/25-399.html
CME could raise the requirement to $50k and people are still gonna buy. They need to disable the buy button.
What's next CME short ladder attack?
CME the scam of a generation https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2025/25-399.html
CME tried to shut down Gold and Silver Gold and Silver immediately rallies in Asia and Europe sessions. CME will need to raise margins again and again and again, The world knows that the Fed is printing hard, and the next Fed Chair will likely print harder. People will increasingly only believe in real money Gold/Silver and USD will be fuk.
Watch the CME continue raising margin requirements correspondingly...
For futures, you need both initial and maintenance margin. Since CME recently increased the maintenance margin, it’s getting expensive to go long, since you need to put more cash for each contract.
U can thank CME for manipulating SLV
Margin requirement system is so dated. Banks can leverage to the tits on bad bets and tap into the repo market or get bailed out by the fed for the forth time but the average buyer in a free market must continue to get priced out of their positions by a dated CME. I hope silver sits at 200/oz if it means I can buy ram again. Turn the profit margins to mush on this AI/EV/Solar slop that they push down our throats.
We all are understimating the sheer number, % of folks speculating on commodities, especially precious metals. Except real industrial players (who use the metal for manufacturing, maintaining etc), almost everyone else is a speculator in silver. Including institutional buyers. CME hiking the margin requirements will significantly cool off the really, Everyone will tend to offload their contracts and stay away from buying. Especially big money. Because they can go and speculate elsewhere. That will correct the prices sharply for n metals (except gold) in next couple of weeks.
Chinas offering more money for silver than the CME is, isn’t that just capitalism?
Which exacerbates the problem because any silver that does enter the market immediately gets vacuumed up by china. Like why would a mine sell to COMEX when it can sell to shanghai or india? Fucking stooges at COMEX bending over backwards to protect shorts. Eventually the gov will have to get involved and ban silver exports or there will be no silver left for critical industries and our military. They should try CME management as traitors to the US.
The CME just raised the margin requirement to 30%. Not sure if you guys heard.
CME can't stop physical demand. They are pissing in the wind.
Legit question to Silver bulls, CME can keep raising margin rates, to suppress prices, so even if enough buyers "buy the dip" they can increase the margins over and over again with higher and higher frequency. So do y'all really think Silver 100-120 is a reality in 2026?
CME upping the margin requirement again
It’s CME covering for the banks who are gonna get blown out
CME you silly goose, giving me another buyin opportunity, about to 10x calls and shares in the am on SLV
That's two bottle of scotch I have to buy (x2 CME margin increases). For each $10 rise in silver price AFTER these, I will drink one of those bottles.
https://preview.redd.it/0ugl57spmgag1.jpeg?width=454&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d24503a539cb22f215c3e12e0af9842e0c08df5d CME is asking Silver bros what this Pokemon is.
CME is hiking margins on precious metals yet again to deter longs.
So in some ways I wasn't wrong to buy SLV on Fri. CME partly tanked it on Mon
CME raised margin requirements again and force liquidated a lot of holdings. Its one of their tricks. But the scarcity is not going away anytime soon
CME is suppressing metals hard, this is another GameStop waiting to happen.
Don't worry, it'll punp after tomorrow, right before CME raises margin requirements again.
Keep buying silver, I’m sure you’ll beat the CME
Is CME margin hike confirmed?
CME hikes margin rates a second time for SILVER, so why it shoots up now?
How many times can faken CME hike rates for silver? What's the highest they can go and what is it at now?
CME raising margin requirements won’t alone affect equities.
Any news? Or is CME dragging equities down along with it with the margin hike?
CME trying to recreate 2011 lmao. Got puts on a whim and seems they’re gonna hit
CME is so fearful of the whole thing breaking down that they just fully shut off for 10 hours only a few weeks ago. They can’t raise margin requirements enough to keep Pandora’s box shut forever
Oh wow more market manipulation thank you CME Now I'm torn between calls on silver due to unervaluation and scarcity and putson silver due to blatant, obvious, heavy handed market manipulation to reduce its paper price.
It’s literally being manipulated by CME. This won’t end well. Physical is $90 on major markets. This is just pulling back on the slingshot. It worked in 2011, it won’t this time.
CME can't keep getting away with this!
lol second margin increase by CME. Silver 30%!! Now
CME will jack rates again imo
CME raising margin rates on silver again, almost like it could be 2011 all over again :)
>Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Futures Alert >CME hikes margin rates a second time in a week. >*Massive* increases : Gold 9%, Silver 30%, Platinum 25%, Palladium 22% They do not want you to have real money in debasement. The point is wealth transfer. To them.
CME is raising margin capital requirements by 10%+ again at market close tomorrow: [https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2025/25-399.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2025/25-399.html)
SLV pullback was due to the margin repricing by CME. Quarterzips don’t return from Aspen until Monday. Time for the march to $100 with plenty of rugs and fuckery along the way.
Someone at CME: PAMP SUISSE IT
Hey CME group, any chance you want to change the margin requirements on silver again to make my 1k in puts go up $250
All the big guns from CME came out yesterday just to save some idiots who shorted silver Bought them just a single day lol This is so entertaining to watch and I don't even hold any silver positions 😂
Another CME margin hike incoming in....
I think any exposure to SLV at 70+ is suicide, if one CME margin hike won't kill the speculation, you can be sure another one is in the pipeline. The administration don't want Silver to be a monetary metal, its industrial uses are far too great to let the prices run wild.
Get fucked CME Stupid market manipulating thugs
Son. You weren’t even a twinkle in your mother’s eye when I started down this road. I’ve been in this game WAAAY too long to be in school. Take a step back and think about what you are claiming. That the CME would literally destroy their entire institution over what? Helping a few desks make a quick buck for one session? Yesterday’s move was a transfer. Not money vanishing. Rough math because I truly can be assed any further with you. It was on the order of $6.6B of mark to market swing in silver and roughly $9.8B in gold so about $16B across the two. That’s exactly what a mechanical reset looks like when the whole street is leaning the same way. I’m sure the SEC has your name on a plaque and a corner office waiting for you. And while I appreciate your dedication to sleuthing out the corruption with “enthusiasm” and your completely original use of name calling and insults, I have better shit to do today. Truly, Done with this. Jonny Salami
I do event based investing. Currently building up position looking forward to these events 1. Supreme court ruling on Tariff 2. new Fed chair appointment news and what it will mean for interest rate cuts 3. holiday sales data release 4. Nvidia H200 shipping data to china, when they start shipping. To me, next FOMC will be just as expected. CME Fedwatch has 82% expectation of no cuts.
CME manipulates during their night and they buy everything during their day
CME does not give a shit if silver goes up or down. They are not trading the market. They are running a clearinghouse. Their only job is to make sure nobody blows up and fails to settle. When a market gets crowded and leveraged, the risk is not price direction, it is counterparty risk. Raising margin is how they force people to either put up more cash or cut size so the system does not snap. Sometimes that causes a crash. Sometimes it causes a squeeze. CME does not care which way it goes. In this case everyone was long, so the pressure was down. If everyone had been short, the same margin hike would have ripped the market higher.
Last crack down on silver and gold was 11 days long. I really, really need a similar performance so I can toss the rest of this money at HL, CDE and NEM. Come on CME, do your thing!
only a idiot who has zero clue wtf going on would say that though as respons to comment you responded to. The timing of margin changes is the manipulation. CME waits for price surge, raises margins, forces liquidations that crash the price. Banks and clearing members know this will happen. It's a tool that consistently punishes longs and helps shorts cover. the physical metal price like silver remains at a 8$ premium and if physical trades at a premium for a period like its been doing for more than a month, that means futures are wrong, not the other way around. which means "lol yeah profit taking" remains completely oblivious to wtf going on and the amount of smug oblivious stupidity you packed into such short sentence remains impressive
This is complete horseshit framing. Just because something happens mechanically doesn't mean it's not manipulated. The TIMING of margin changes is the manipulation. CME waits for price surge, raises margins, forces liquidations that crash the price. Banks and clearing members know this will happen. It's a tool that consistently punishes longs and helps shorts cover "working exactly the way it should" = "It always works this way therefore it's correct." while completely ignoring whether the mechanism itself is the problem. if physical trades at a premium, that means futures are wrong, not the other way around "arbitrage is functioning" If arbitrage was working, premiums would close. "You should have seen it coming" lol, its clear you have basic understanding, but in a autism way
Looks like I was right. Exchange operator CME raised margin requirements across a range of metals contracts, effectively slamming the brakes on last week's massive rally in precious metals.
This is a classic futures washout and working exactly the way it always has and should. No manipulation here. Silver ran hot, leverage exploded, CME raised margins, funds were forced to cover or sell, and price collapsed mechanically. That is literally how the clearing system protects itself when positioning becomes one sided. As far as the strange turn you took on your conclusions… price discovery is still primarily set by futures. Shanghai premiums tell you tight local physical supply and market frictions not fake pricing or a broken COMEX. Physical can trade at a premium for months when demand exceeds deliverable metal but the global benchmark is still anchored to futures as long as arbitrage is functioning. TLDR Leverage got too high, margins went up, weak hands were forced out, and the paper price reset. Physical staying bid just means supply is tight not that the futures market failed.
😅 After CME announced their hiking margins everyone already knew Monday was going to open red. It is what happens in the coming days that is interesting. It's like being proud of calling out that a stock will go down on Monday after the company got sued on Saturday. If you can't change your position before the market opens everyone already knows.
We're likely in for half a month of a combination of sideways and downwards movements while the new CME margin capital requirements shake out some of the over-leveraged futures speculators. We could be also seeing a lot of overnight liquidations over the next few days, which will further depress prices, due to poorly tuned risk-assessment models. Once gold consolidates for a few days and starts an uptrend, then it'll be time to amp up the leverage again. This will, likely, correspond with the Lunar New Year, which is one of the biggest buying periods for gold.
Wish I could help you. My best guess is that another CME margin hike is coming. However, keep in mind that the rumors are that China is limiting silver exports on Jan. 1, 2026. I think that was priced in with this morning's early run-up and now subsequent sell-off. I think the name of the game here is to own shares in miners or ETFs. Options.... risky business at this point unless they're LEAPs. Good luck.
Margin increased on silver by cme me ght be part of it Surging silver and gold slide after CME raises margin requirements | AP News https://share.google/9TYgeczlMDU415BhI
Thinking of lobbying for CME to get a futures offering covering human shit (fertiliser etc) - but then I remembered there's already bitcorn and real corn I guess
Banks short silver on comex and comex and also CME which handles buy / sell contracts had a margin call signal for banks that are actively shorting silver. $77.19 was a signal to banks for margin calls so they were able to get comex and CME to give them more buying power.
If everyone on here was serious about going balls deep on silver today, they would embrace this little flash crash right? If they want to control the price from getting out of control, why would they do something that makes the price go down significantly? There's still a demand for it so even more people are gonna buy it. Which is going to make it go even higher, right? The CME hiked margin requirements earlier this month and it had little effect on the price so what gives now? Does this mean it was really the peak?
Man wish I'd seen the CME announcement friday. At least Im never leveraged to the tits
This silver dump is because CME group increased margin requirements a second time. Idk if it’s going to work tho
Hold the line on silver. Fuck CME group
Thanks CME, for fucking up precious metals.
CME turned off the buy button and a bank collapsed. Couple good reasons
SLV is dropping because: The [CME Group](https://www.google.com/search?q=CME+Group&rlz=1C1CAFC_enUS884US884&oq=did+the+comex+increase+the+margin+of+silver+today&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigAdIBCDg5MTFqMWo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&mstk=AUtExfCY9AEpELdYqCJC3DwVl8IC1tLFLHR1LCUbeVOe2tqsi8nn8HJYKnvoPuwcXVrtaP-w23LcnOICFQnJNatMJjCg0Dhxr89QC5iepGjVVG6Bd7jXC9k93AspYx47ZE2s15_Ykef8A99c0OKd2Wm3F-VzBifbsDcNp_WnBnU3x3yA99vE04zv_WuVMoYqZ_aUL4sBOUw0k1iPvbm9A8H1bMSENZYcPi60Pd9BOCD6Ez6sozz6nEF40ndN3C8-TfkCPPDdz3yqu4Lm_OOwkF9Kwz8xHtUE60QwBvkcxq-zVHG2qw&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi8rcf99-KRAxXkEEQIHZaTPBEQgK4QegQIARAB) (which runs the COMEX) did increase margin requirements for silver futures, effective today, December 29, 2025, raising the initial margin to around $25,000 for March 2026 contracts, leading to significant selling and profit-taking in silver markets as it cools down from record highs. **Key Details:** * **Effective Date:** December 29, 2025. * **New Margin:** Approximately $25,000 per contract (up from $22,000 or $20,000). * **Reason:** The exchange cited increased volatility and the need to manage risk as silver prices surged. * **Market Impact:** This increase forced leveraged traders to deposit more collateral or reduce positions, triggering sell-offs and corrections in both COMEX and MCX (Indian) silver markets. This move by the CME aims to curb excessive speculation and follows a massive rally in silver prices, bringing relief to some markets while causing sharp price drops.
Generational decade long silver baggies will be made today on open due to CME margin calls LMAO
There you go. CME got silver crushed Just like the 1970s and 2011 They won't win this time. We will be back soon.
Buckle up folks: There isn’t enough Silver to unwind JP Morgan’s short position without driving silver prices insanely high. If that happens then…… Industry estimates suggest eight major bullion banks (JP Morgan, Citibank, HSBC, Scotiabank, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank) collectively hold 400-600 million ounce commercial short position, meaning if JP Morgan's 200 million ounce position created $4.8 billion loss, total industry losses approach $10-15 billion across all institutions, with additional contagion risk through CME Group default fund of only $2.5 billion insufficient to cover JP Morgan failure requiring assessments from other clearing members already facing their own silver losses creating cascading insolvency risk.
On December 26, 2025, the CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for silver futures. Starting December 29, 2025, the initial margin for March 2026 silver contracts will rise to $25,000. This move comes amid rising silver prices and growing concern about market manipulation. The CME’s decision is seen as another attempt to control silver’s price during a period of increased demand.
And CME thought $25k margin requirement would control Silver 😂
Expected. Will get worse tomorrow as CME raised margin requirements. What this gap up showed is is that after the margin requirements are met it's going to gap up again in a month or two. I'm buying al the dips with both fists.
In 2011, margins started at ~4% of notional—meaning you could control $100 of silver with $4 of capital. That’s 25x leverage. Degenerate stuff. CME ratcheted margins to ~10% over a few weeks, leverage collapsed from 25x to 10x, and the forced liquidation cascade murdered the rally. Today? We’re already at ~17% of notional. Six times leverage. That’s tighter than the WORST point of 2011. Not a lot of speculators trading paper this time. This is a race for the physical.
Good question. In late Nov, a COMEX data center had a "cooling" issue that forced them to shut down their servers. This coincided with a sharp spike in Silver earlier that day. It was a clear breakout if you watch the chart. It was so clear they were going to have structural deficit problems after that, I went long in early December. Its my suspicion that there was likely a large Chinese bank that tried to move a lot of silver all at once out of COMEX, and someone high ranking stepped in to tell them not to. Data center cooling issue halts world's largest derivatives exchange — CME trading shutdown ripples across Malaysia, UK, and EU markets | Tom's Hardware https://share.google/x1XtBxPpbyYalwYWt
CME is going to raise margins through the roof tomorrow afternoon if we have a 5%+ day....
Do we have a drinking game everytime the CME raise metal margins this week?
We're about to learn things about what the CME is willing to do when shit gets real.