CME

Deep-Bench-2016

I've been geeking out on this Powell-exit story for a few weeks and the part that finally clicked for me is that tomorrow's actual rate decision basically doesn't matter — CME FedWatch has it at 100% odds of a hold at 3.5–3.75%. The interesting question is what happens to our stuff (mortgages, HYSA yields, auto loans) when Warsh takes over in May. What I learned the hard way is that mortgage rates don't really track the Fed funds rate. They track the 10-year Treasury yield, which is set by what the bond market expects the Fed to do 1–2 years out. So the chair changing only matters to your wallet if it shifts those expectations. What I'd actually watch tomorrow: 1. Powell's tone in his final presser at 2:30 — he'll probably want a graceful exit and lean dovish. If the 10-year doesn't react, the bond market is telling you it doesn't expect Warsh to materially change course. 2. PCE on Friday — sticky inflation locks in higher-for-longer regardless of who's chair. 3. The 2026 dot plot — if any of the projection dots shift down, that's where Warsh-era easing actually shows up first. For most regular people refinancing or sitting on cash, the practical takeaway is: don't reposition based on the chair change itself. Reposition based on what the 10-year does in the 48 hours after the presser. That's the cleanest signal you can get without a Bloomberg terminal.

Formal-Ad4023

Right lol granted what they did was short shipping route cost through CME or CMG whatever the hell it’s called

nowjade

Oil futures are so manipulated and no where near reality. Fuck the CME and their stupid rules.

A55BAG

Is all this futures trading bullish for CME? Earnings today..

2020isgreat

the 0dte changed her life CME tweet marked the top

Big-Needleworker9877

Thank you for sharing this, was so baffled at the blatant manipulation at first. And looking more closely at who controlls the market I would guess that this is all done with consent from the govenment under the guise of Donald Trump triumphant Taco game and run throw the CME group since they seem to have a stangle hold on the market.

AphexPin

I subscribe to OPRA and CME datafeeds from DataBento and have some homemade tools for GEX etc but like you said it's up to interpretation on top of already being only a proxy for real dealer exposure. I'm mostly hoping to grab anything quantitative I can to help paint a better picture of market structure, even if it's lagged, but it seems like a lot the stuff isn't accessible to retail on actionable timeframes. Overall I'm just wanting to get better about trading with the market rather than whatever my own thesis is, but reading the room like that is challenging without the required data. Been trying to also follow better people on X, just added Nicholas so thanks. Do you think Bloomberg as a news source, not the terminal, is worth it?

DaFlyingGriffin

Wow so apparently webull is having a glitch where users can't execute CME trades. So I am stuck in an WTI crude futures scalp until further notes.

tromp8

That’s what I thought, so my doubts about doing it myself through IBKR API as they have MBP not MBO (as long as I know). I have MBO from CME in Bookmap but it doesn’t include options I think.

MongooseTough2838

Yeah, that fits with what I’ve been seeing as well. The CME data I’m tracking showed steady inflows into equity futures almost every day last week. The numbers were consistently positive across the first five sessions, and even the small drop on the last day looked more like a pause than any real unwind. Rates were even stronger. The flows in the interest‑rate complex were huge all week, which usually lines up with systematic buying when volatility stays low. Equities weren’t as extreme as rates, but the demand was persistent enough to support the idea that CTAs and other systematic strategies were active. If volatility stays contained, I agree there’s room for another wave of buying early in the week. Positioning still looks light enough that both CTAs and active managers could add more exposure.

Mother-Grapefruit-45

Yeah good question. Soft-touch Treasury means they don't directly buy or sell oil futures on CME to manipulate price. They instead lean on sanctions enforcement where Iranian barrels hit the market. Specifically: Iran exports via shadow fleet (ships with false flags, spoofed AIS). When the US threatens enforcement against banks or carriers that touch those barrels, the settlement path gets harder. Chinese and Russian buyers who were paying in dollars have to switch to ruble or yuan clearing, which adds friction, adds cost, and reduces the actual volume that can move. So Iranian supply to the market goes DOWN even without a physical blockade. That shows up in the oil price as a supply-side pressure that looks organic (less Iranian crude in the global market means higher price). But it isn't Treasury trading futures directly, which means the CFTC positioning reports don't flag it and the public can't point at a Treasury line item. Two reasons they'd prefer this: (1) legal (direct futures intervention has the unclear-legality question Bessent dodged), (2) deniable (they can say "we're just enforcing existing sanctions" rather than "we're managing the oil market"). Downside from their perspective: slower than direct intervention. Upside: no paper trail, fits existing enforcement authority.

Mother-Grapefruit-45

Good to know on the Bessent signal, unclear-legality-plus-no-plans-yet is the right read and better data than anything I had. If they're leaning on the Ruble side instead of direct CME ops, that's the soft-touch version of the same goal. Sanctions enforcement is their lane anyway so any positioning impact there shows up as flow distortion not as a Treasury print, which is why we wouldn't see it in the positioning data. Means your "ticking time bomb" point on the May settlements stays intact as the unhedged exposure.

Mother-Grapefruit-45

Fair catch and thanks for the link, 0.8% is way tighter than I was implying. That pretty clearly kills the "big gap up Monday" part of my take. Caveat I'd still hold though: IG weekend futures are thin-volume synthetic, the real Monday open runs through Asia then Europe first and oil-specific cash trades react to the physical tape (tanker movements, Hormuz throughput overnight). So the 0.8% is the equity-synthetic read, not necessarily the oil-cash read. WTI front-month specifically could still move more when CME opens. But on the broader "already repriced" point, yeah you're probably right, and the scenario where Monday doesn't open visibly different is genuinely possible. That changes the setup from "catch-up trade" to "wait for Wednesday headline risk and position around that." Appreciate the data pull.

Swiftnice

CME group is in Chicago.

TACO_Orange_3098

Because the market closed 500pm EST on Friday :D Reopens on Sunday evening at 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) on the CME Globex platform.

Putrid_Pollution3455

If that’s the case, why does the CME watch tool still say that we have a 99.5% chance of no rate change? Kevin better fuck this shit up.

TheBoldManLaughsOnce

I have a have an over arching thesis. Always. Several in fact. I have numerous books underlying each of these theses. Across a number of countries and currencies. Each with a corresponding hedge. Some with secondary, tertiary possibly even fourth order hedge (but I currently have only one of those but it fits several positions (it's in crude oil futures options)). I'm currently considering what the double-closure of the Hormuz will do to the Yen-carry and therefore all spec bubbles including our favorite circular financing subject. How best to structure a synthetic knock- in structure with listed CME JPY maybe? I already own enough equity panick in USD. And in the Greenback itself. Looking for the best bang for my buck here.

Jealous_Archer_4522

CME investigating front running TACO trades in the oil futures market. “Nothing is more important than ***the illusion of*** market integrity,” a spokesperson at CME told CNBC. Front running trades? Insider fuckery? No one will go to jail. Carry on TACO.

Youngutz2026

those types of data points you can run through Claude or something by downloading the free price historic data from CME

BFLO-Retail

So I called CME ‘s future trading desk and Brent futures are Financially Settled against the “Ice Crude Brent Index” This is an index that tracks Forties and 4 other physical trades. Now since I don’t pay $30,000 a year for a bloomberg terminal, my data is out sync by about a week, but as of last thursday Brent Physical was trading at $138 and some news articles are now reporting $149

Small_Rip351

I come from the present. Per the CME site, front month oil up about 9% from Friday’s close. Equity indices down about 1.25%, but I could see that picking up steam into tomorrow’s open.

Small_Rip351

This might work out Monday morning since the war is back on. I guess check the futures Sunday night on the CME site and see what kind of morning you’re going to have. Nothing wrong with shorting the stuff, but maybe in the future, buy some calls as a hedge. If this goes in your face, even having OTM calls can prevent your broker from force liquidating your account.

Wrong_Dog_4337

My bear case on abaxx is a $5B buyout offer from CME or ICE. they shake enough shares loose they buy out abaxx tech. They get the whole company. Sure I make some money. But the ride to $50B is over. 

curious_investor007

The core observation here is real — the spread between Dated Brent (physical cargoes) and Brent futures is historically extreme. Dated Brent hit $144.42 on April 7 (all-time record per S&P Global Platts), while June futures were around $95-109. As of last week it was still ~$30-35 wide. But the trade thesis has some critical mechanical problems. Settlement doesn’t work the way OP thinks. BZ (CME Brent futures) cash-settles against the ICE Brent Index, which is derived from a cascade of forward contracts — not against Dated Brent directly. Dated Brent prices prompt physical cargoes for delivery in 10-30 days. Futures price delivery months out. These are structurally different instruments. Morgan Stanley’s commodities desk put it well: these two prices are connected but they don’t measure the same exposure in time or at the same point in the supply chain. There is no mechanical forcing function that pulls June futures up to match today’s physical spot price at expiry. BNO tracks futures, not physical. BNO holds front-month Brent futures and rolls them. If futures stay at $95 while Dated Brent is $130, BNO stays at $95-equivalent. The $60-70 target only works if futures converge upward to physical — which requires the supply disruption to persist or worsen through June. That’s a directional geopolitical bet, not an arbitrage. The spread isn’t manipulation — it’s the term structure of scarcity. The physical market is pricing “barrels available right now” (extremely tight, Hormuz still effectively closed). Futures are pricing “barrels expected to be available in June” (assumes some normalization from the ceasefire). The spread between Dated Brent and futures is called the EFS (Exchange for Swaps) and it reflects exactly this time dimension. If the ceasefire holds and Hormuz reopens, futures at $95 could be the correct price while physical at $130 reflects a temporary dislocation that resolves. Could OP still make money? Sure — if you believe Hormuz stays closed and the ceasefire collapses, crude rips higher and BNO calls print. But that’s a war bet with a defined thesis, not a convergence arb. Call it what it is. For anyone wanting to track the physical price: S&P Global Platts publishes the official Dated Brent assessment (paywalled). Free alternatives include the EIA Brent spot series on FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU, delayed) and CNBC/Bloomberg articles that report the Platts numbers. Disclosure: No position in BNO, BZ, or crude oil.

No_Art_2787

you say this, but the option market and future market, and betting market did not predict it. All CBOE/CME option productions pointed to low vol, no change and seemed positive this weekend would result in a deal. So did polymarket. Fortune favors the brave.

No_Art_2787

i bought 4 calls on /cl at close. 10K worth, expiration on monday. Using weekend oil, and some math, it is now 6+ points ITM from CME close. thats 20K of just intrinsic value. Fucking slippage city at CME open tomorrow at 6pm EST, but right now i plan to sell 4 lots of /cl to go delta neutral as soon as i can. I hope it gets to 105+ atleast.

bemeandnotyou

This is a meme, Most retail brokers automatically liquidate speculators before expiry. On the other hand some full blown retards were trying to force SLV delivery to force a squeeze aaaand they ended up getting squeezed the fick out by CME raising margin requirements.

SolomonKings7

WTI is down 90 USD on hyper liquid: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:CL It will be interesting to see the CME and ICE futures next Monday

East-Apartment6771

Hello. I have no excperience in trading but have placed a lottery bet on 3 legs of GCZ26 gold futures options 15000/20000 December 2026 via CME / IBKR. It now show 12000 dollar in maintance margin. If Gold should be close to 20000 near end of November will my maintance margin the same or will it rise a lot. Rgds Terje

MongooseTough2838

**Shorting the Nikkei depends entirely on the instruments your broker offers. Some platforms provide futures, some offer CFDs, and others only allow ETFs that move inversely. Each one has different margin requirements, liquidity profiles, and risks, so it’s not something I can recommend or walk you through.** **From the institutional data side, the reason I flagged the Nikkei as bearish is because the COT flow is negative and CME validation shows distribution rather than accumulation. That’s the signal not the trade itself. How to express that view depends on your own tools, jurisdiction, and risk tolerance.**

MongooseTough2838

**I wasn’t familiar with the MOOD ETF, so thanks for mentioning it. I work strictly with COT, CME data, and a custom AI model, and that already takes quite a bit of time each week. But I’ll take a look at it because the approach sounds interesting.** **Regarding sugar, I didn’t include it in this week’s report, but I did notice the drop. When a market falls that sharply after a strong bullish narrative, it’s usually a positioning flush rather than a structural shift. The key now is whether institutional flow comes back in.**

music_is_gud

8:30 Eastern. You can check CME economic release calendar for times/dates of major events

SugarPhoenix

The market bottomed on JPOW saying no rate cuts and the market pricing in CME odds going from 10% of a rate hike to 0%. I swear to god on my fuycking cat I've seen 10k comments mentioning "mango" and god damn zero comments mentioning JPOW when it was him saying something that bottomed the market. Yall really are 18-24 year old children that are too fucking stupid to understand any of this. ANYONE WANT TO DISCUSS THE FED TURNING DOVISH AND THE AFFECT OF THAT ON THE MARKET OR JUST DAE MaANgO??

ClarkNova80

I’m just going to ignore the fact that you’re asking this question like the US market is the only one that exists. Asia is trading right now. Nikkei, Hang Seng, ASX are all live. Middle East exchanges trade on Sundays. Tadawul, Tel Aviv, Dubai. Forex never closes. Crypto never closes. E-mini S&P futures on Globex open Sunday 6PM ET. European pre-market is pricing in moves hours before NY wakes up. CME oil futures are already reacting. Gold and bonds caught the safe haven bid on Friday’s fear and now reverse on Sunday’s de-escalation. Two moves, two trades, same weekend. Volatility spiked on the escalation, so whoever sold premium into that panic on Friday profits massively on the IV crush Monday. VIX products like UVXY and VXX get obliterated on a gap-up open. Whoever shorted vol over the weekend prints. Credit default swaps on defense, energy, and sovereign debt were repricing OTC in real time all weekend. You escalate on Friday after close, let the fear cook all weekend, let every retail trader panic-set their Monday morning orders. Every stop-loss and limit order sitting on the book is visible to market makers. They know exactly where the liquidity is before the bell even rings. Then you leak a de-escalation on Sunday so the algos can scrape the headline and reprice futures in milliseconds while the smart money front-runs the entire move across every open exchange before US retail even wakes up. The people who move markets don’t need the NYSE bell. They have futures, overseas desks, Globex access, headline-scanning algos, OTC desks, FX desks repricing every USD pair in real time, and dark pool positioning before you even open your brokerage app. You don’t.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

SugarPhoenix

Look up when JPOW said there will not be rate hikes. The market was pricing in potential rate hikes due to high oil prices. CME odds of a hike went to 10%. Now they are 0%. The market priced that in and likely bottomed off the Fed saying no rate hikes. It was 10% down for like 2 hours lol

SugarPhoenix

What exactly he said doesn’t matter. What’s not up for debate is after his little presser CME odds of a rate hike went from 10% to 0%. And are still 0%. The market priced that in. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

AllCapNoBrake

Just a CME gap. It will cover.

eggplantpot

*"Nothing about supply really changed overnight"* Besides Iran confirming some nations can cross the strait and sanctions on Russia being relaxed... They literally just slapped some Trump quotes on a graph and said implied those quotes were the causation lmfao. Full on regime propaganda this is. Shame on CME Group and Bloomberg.

BarbellPadawan

I’m just going to listen to jazz music and read *1929* while awaiting CME open.

OftenTangential

CME rate futures imply <1% odds of two cuts by December and 10% odds of a hike. You're entitled to your opinion but don't confidently stick your head in the sand, that's how you get burned.

BarbellPadawan

US Fighter Jet downed in Iran, SAR operations in progress. Didn’t we already win the excursion? Wonder what this will do for markets come Sunday night CME open.

negative-nelly

CME will never be allowed to go down. Just like DTCC. If they go down, America doesn’t exist. It’s that level of event.

No_Feeling920

Credit default swaps, unlike NYMEX crude contracts, did not use a clearing house (central counterparty). It was essentially "trust me, bro" kind of risk management. CME could still go down as a clearing house, but the likelihood of that is way lower (for the time being). Especially if they keep hiking the maintenance margin requirements accordingly.

SugarPhoenix

Im not sure what you mean. This isnt up for debate. The expectation of a rate hike went from 0% to 10% and the market fell. JPOW said what he said, and expectations of a hike went to 0% overnight and the market mooned. Are you saying you know better than CME Group expectations and chances of a rate hike aren't 0% now? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html He legit cheated and influenced the market. It would be like if we are playing poker and he showed the table his hand. Now that we know his hand we can say "Hey oil prices dont matter, Fed isnt raising rates anyway". On top of this, you can now see a clear divergence in longer dated future oil prices. They aren't going up as much as shorter term futures, essentially calling BS on the oil market and saying it will revert back within a few months.

Complex-Note-5274

who trades fx here? crowded USD shorts? That DXY candle seems wild. FX report from CME [https://www.cmegroup.com/reports/fx-report.pdf](https://www.cmegroup.com/reports/fx-report.pdf)

AggieDem

CME Group U.S. Equity futures have 7% price limits overnight and remain open for trading at that limit. If markets reach 7% up or down during the overnight session, they remain open but can only trade up to those price limits. Further, Dynamic Circuit Breakers will be in effect with a width of 3.5%. If a contract market moves beyond +/- 3.5% within an hour during the overnight session, trading will be paused for two minutes. https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/understanding-price-limits-and-circuit-breakers

Consistent_Panda5891

Sell everything and buy puts but not now. Wait till 1AM Japanese pump. You can buy them on multiple brokers in CME markets which are opened over 23 hours

Consistent_Panda5891

CME. Actually is where money is done

jonnycoder4005

Depends on your account type. Reg-T margin is simple 50% (2x leverage) for holding long/short positions. Portfolio margin (up to 6x leverage) looks at your entire portfolio and calculates risk arrays similar to CME SPAN for Futures positions.

ecoburner87

you are experiencing the closest thing America has ever had to Central Planning there are levers the government can pull each day/week to respond to actual market conditions; they can tank oil, they can pump markets, they can get CME on the phone to obstruct movements in metals - and then there's the propaganda, the press conferences, the social media component those in the inner circle get each move telegraphed and can on side 100% of the time for every little move. the money going in their pockets is yours

downdog44

Ha ha! I was a currency trader for a hedge fund - CME futures. My boss was an idiot. I tried to identify universal truths. The only one I came up with - and let me know your thoughts: Only market orders move price. You get it? - oddly I used it to make a good living until my boss, the fund founder, went to prison for fraud.

modder9

Can we do a similar meetup outside the CME datacenter in Aurora?

Full_Pear449

That quote is WTI Crude/CME...Brent crude is currently $115.30 WTI is a higher-quality, "lighter" U.S.-produced crude, while Brent is the international benchmark sourced from the North Sea

LillianWigglewater

They're probably talking about CME futures, which is often synonymous with "market expectations". Two weeks ago they were indeed pricing in at least 2 or 3 cuts this year and more next year. Now suddenly the market is betting on zero cuts this year, with a slight probability of a rate increase, and a chance of maybe one cut at the end of 2027. It was a dramatic shift.

Full_Pear449

OIL opened on CME up 3%

hotforlowe

Yeah, when CME’s top clients don’t have the physical to cover contracts 😆

aspergillum

CME tends to move opposite the market at times

Full_Pear449

Last CME trade friday was at $101.18, easy easy to say tonight's open will be NORTH maybe $115

xghtai737

You guys are arguing about the wrong things. True: Iran is not remotely a military match for the US. But, they don't have to be in order to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. All they have to do is credibly threaten to fly drones into oil tankers. They have already accomplished that. The US would have to move its ships into the Strait in order to stop that, which means that US ships would be within range of Iranian attacks and it is very likely that at least some of them would be sunk, which is why we haven't done it, yet. And the only way to secure the coast is with ground troops. According to one expert on Iran that I listened to, someone who is has been an advisor on Iran to every US administration since Clinton, Iran's countermove to a US ground invasion, which looks like its coming, will be to take some of that nuclear material that they have stock piled, build a bomb, and use it, either in the US or in Israel or both. They have enough material for 16 of them. They don't even need a missile delivery. Imagine if they could smuggle them in and put them on a truck and detonate it on Wall Street, or outside the CME, or somewhere in DC... The worst case scenario for Iran isn't getting bombed by B2s, it's a ground invasion by US troops. They can try to hide from bombers, but a ground invasion means regime change and certain death for current leadership and nothing left for the Iranian regime to lose. The worst case scenario for the US isn't closing the Strait and $200 oil, it's a truck carrying a nuke going off in NYC. That's the scenario Trump is walking us toward. Yes, the US military can go in and kick-ass. That isn't the friggin point. That solves nothing. It doesn't stop Iran from wanting to sponsor terror or enriching uranium to weapons grade level. Best case it delays them for a few years, worst case it motivates them to actually use one on US soil.

angcritic

Wrong you are not going to acquire or deliver anything ever. Trade oil, cotton, hogs, orange juice, whatever. It's the leverage that must be understood. Anyone new to futures should paper trade and only in the "micro" families. I hadn't traded in a couple of years and decided to play silver /MCLH6 and oh boy that was a short emotional ride. Up $2k and yes! and down 1k a few minutes later. Sell or ride? I think I made $500 on the swing. Go to the CME group and take some education.

GeeBee72

Well there’s a few things to point out: A COMEX contract is 5,000 Troy ounces, not 1 oz. There were only 18 open contracts in this past expiry, so it’s not like there was a huge lineup of prime waiting to cash in. CME rules dictate that silver must be available for delivery on a delivery date; not an escort date, and it’s not like you can take delivery before the expiration date like you can with American Options. And so on. Sorry to burst your conspiracy theory.

The-Rock-Report

They are an exchange and clearinghouse (first one to get both those licenses in over 10 years in the entire world) and their exchange volumes are going parabolic. Most of the revenue right now is from their physically delivered LNG and Gold contracts. For context on the parabolic move in exchange volumes and revenue, about 3 months ago they were averaging around 10k in revenue per day and today they almost hit 100k. You could pull up some press releases where they are recently onboarding a lot of new trading firms and platforms. Exchanges are one of the highest profit margin and highest "moat" businesses on the planet (see ICE and CME). Definitely take a look at it.

Enough_Payment_8838

markets.xyz lets you trade oil perps 24/7 so you can actually see live price action during weekend events. for historical options chains specifically tho, CME's QuikStrike or barchart have archives but you'll probaly need a subscription for the snapshots.

Philthatman

NYSE? NASDAQ? CME? Nah, OTC meth exchange in the park corner

ecoburner87

where are they buying puts (CME, ICE?) and with what US currency? anyone with the money and power to do this in Iran has been sanctioned for decades by now, not easy to move money out of the country and trade it, although they have some limited ways, but not enough to move global markets imo

MrTemecula

I'd like to think, on the whole, this market is fair. But now, the illusion about the invisible hand are being shattered on a [daily ](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html)basis. >At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

crankthehandle

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CME Group declined to comment.

One-Signature-2706

Why the fuck didn’t you specify you bought options on ES futures for example instead of using weird language and then falsely calling someone retarded for not knowing? You could have just said “bought options on futures” instead of being a tryhard and purposefully disingenuous. What platform do you use? CME?

isolated-cat

of course CME group didn't respond because they're aware of this bs manipulation that's been going on for years

McKoijion

A 5 day delay is how long it takes for the oil market to close again. The CME futures trading schedule is dictating the pace of WWIII lol. That's not my insight. Iran's state TV is reporting it as they explain why Trump is full of crap and there's no negotiations being held right now. https://x.com/PressTV/status/2036078098496512051

Ok-Piano8789

they're looking at CME S&P futures right now, ES1! on tradingview, /ES in your brokerage, or [https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures?cid=1175153](https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures?cid=1175153) if you're a regard

Internal_Field5970

While last Friday (March 20) saw the "Quadruple Witching" event in traditional markets, this coming Friday carries the heavy lifting for crypto-specific quarterly contracts. Key Expirations: Friday, March 27 • Deribit Quarterly Expiry: Approximately $13.5 billion in crypto derivatives are scheduled to expire on Deribit. This is a massive "roll-off" that typically dictates the market's mid-term direction as traders move out of Q1 positions and into Q2. • CME Bitcoin Futures & Options: The March 2026 (BTCH26) contracts reach their last trade and settlement on this day.

2plus2_equals_5

Uncertainty about what will happen in the war has led to manic back-and-forth swings in the oil and stock markets since the war began nearly three weeks ago. Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), top center, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won, top center left, at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, March 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon) AP By STAN CHOE, Associated Press March 20, 2026 | 6:06 PM 4 minutes to read Share ... NEW YORK (AP) — A roller-coaster day for oil prices showed how they’re dictating where financial markets and maybe even the global economy are heading. Stocks tumbled in Europe and Asia when oil prices shot higher early on Thursday, but U.S. stocks pared their sharp losses as the day progressed and oil prices fell back. The morning began with the shock of Brent crude, the international standard, briefly rising above $119 per barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war with Iran began. The jump followed intensified attacks by Iran on oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf in response to an Israeli attack on an important Iranian natural gas field. They worsened fears that the war could knock out oil and gas production in the Middle East for a long time, which would mean high prices could last a while and cause inflation to rip higher around the world. Stock indexes dropped 3.4% in Japan, 2.8% in Germany and 2.7% in South Korea. But oil prices pared their big gains as the day progressed, the latest in their hour-to-hour swings since the war began. Brent oil settled at $108.65, up only 1.2% from the day before, and then eased further as trading continued. After briefly topping $101, a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude settled at $96.14 and then fell toward $94. That helped stocks on Wall Street pare their own losses, which were already more modest than in Europe and Asia because U.S. companies are less reliant on oil from the Middle East. The S&P 500 finished with a dip of 0.3% after coming back from an early loss of 1%. It even briefly turned higher in the last hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 203 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. Trump and countries around the world have made moves to stem the spike in oil prices. But they’re mostly short-term fixes, and markets want to see less risk for oil and gas fields around the Gulf and a clearance of the Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s coast, where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails. Late on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will hold off on any further attacks on the Iranian gas field, at Trump’s request. Uncertainty about what will happen in the war has led to manic back-and-forth swings in the oil and stock markets since the war began nearly three weeks ago. The yo-yo movements also hit the bond market Thursday, as Treasury yields jumped in the morning with the price of oil and then eased back. The two-year Treasury yield got as high as 3.96% before receding to 3.79%, which is a major move for the bond market. The two-year yield tends to follow expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates. Oil prices have gotten so high that traders are nixing bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates even once this year. It’s a dramatic turnaround from before the war, when traders were betting heavily that the Fed would cut rates multiple times. Cuts to rates would give the economy and prices for investments a boost, and they’re something Trump has angrily been calling for, but they would risk worsening inflation. The Fed on Wednesday decided to hold off on cutting interest rates at its latest meeting, and traders found comments from Chair Jerome Powell discouraging about the possibility for cuts in 2026. Now, traders are betting on a 73% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady this year or maybe even raise them, according to data from CME Group. Just a month ago, those same traders were betting on a 74% probability that the Fed would cut rates at least twice. Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England held their own interest rates steady. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held at 4.26%, where it was late Wednesday. But it’s still well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran started. Higher Treasury yields have already sent rates for mortgages and other kinds of loans upward, and a report on Thursday showed sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly weakened in January. Higher Treasury yields also grind down on prices for all kinds of investments, from stocks to crypto to gold. Gold sank 5.9% to settle at $4,605.70 per ounce. Silver fell even more and dropped 8.2%. Stocks of companies that mine such metals fell to some of Wall Street’s sharpest losses. Newmont slumped 6.9%, and Freeport-McMoRan fell 3.3%. Micron Technology fell 3.8% even though it reported a blowout quarter of much higher profit and revenue than analysts expected. It gave back some of its big gain for the year so far, which came into the day at nearly 62% because of a worldwide shortage for computer memory. Helping to limit Wall Street’s losses was Rivian Automotive, which rose 3.8%. It announced a partnership in which Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in the company and expects to buy 10,000 autonomous robotaxis. Uber Technologies fell 1.7%. All told, the S&P 500 fell 18.21 points to 6,606.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 203.72 to 46,021.43, and the Nasdaq composite sank 61.73 to 22,090.69

Rich-Badger-7601

CME Fedwatch already predicting a 13% chance at a rate hike in April lmaoooooooooooooo

fredditf

CME FedWatch for december is now 33% for a rate hike and 56% current and 4% for a .25 lower. LMAO

modder9

I live 5 mins from CME datacenter. Don’t give me these ideas.

Substantial_Yard_904

Hey everyone, been trading futures for about two years now and based out of Chicago. Always looking to connect with other traders in the area, whether you're into equities, futures, forex, or anything in between. Chicago's obviously a great city for this with the CME right here, but it can feel pretty isolated trading solo. If anyone's down to swap ideas, talk setups, or just grab coffee and talk markets, drop a comment or shoot me a DM. Not looking to pitch anything, just genuine trader to trader conversation. Would love to build out a local network with people who are actually in the game.

Substantial_Yard_904

Hey everyone, been trading futures for about two years now and based out of Chicago. Always looking to connect with other traders in the area, whether you're into equities, futures, forex, or anything in between. Chicago's obviously a great city for this with the CME right here, but it can feel pretty isolated trading solo. If anyone's down to swap ideas, talk setups, or just grab coffee and talk markets, drop a comment or shoot me a DM. Not looking to pitch anything, just genuine trader to trader conversation. Would love to build out a local network with people who are actually in the game.

Substantial_Yard_904

Hey everyone, been trading futures for about two years now and based out of Chicago. Always looking to connect with other traders in the area, whether you're into equities, futures, forex, or anything in between. Chicago's obviously a great city for this with the CME right here, but it can feel pretty isolated trading solo. If anyone's down to swap ideas, talk setups, or just grab coffee and talk markets, drop a comment or shoot me a DM. Not looking to pitch anything, just genuine trader to trader conversation. Would love to build out a local network with people who are actually in the game.

wasifaiboply

1% per CME. So a sure bet, YOLO!

Groundbreaking_Tone3

CME shows 1.07% probability of rate hike. Surprise farewell gift from Jpow!

Derpy_Mc_Burpy

I thought they were pricing in at least one cut later in the year. CME fedwatch still has probability of a cut later in the year

kananishino

CME futures pricing in a rate hike lol

ThoseGelInsertThings

CME Fed Watch page currently showing a 99.1% chance of no rate change at all.

BarbellPadawan

I wonder how much money our Treasury is currently losing on their short oil trade. Maybe CME will novate it for them.

BadAlternative1495

According to Terry Duff, the head of the CME, a major market participant may have influenced the oil options market during its initial surge to $120 per barrel last week. Many speculate that this large player could be the U.S. Treasury Department attempting to ease the upward pressure on oil prices. If that assumption is correct, it raises the question of whether similar intervention might also be occurring in other areas of the market.

UsernameTaken_123

CME/NYMEX doesnt identify anything, but of course if you're a huge player in the oil market, you will have in-depth signal analysis and other tools to try and identify who you're trading against. And there's of course data that shows how much is being delivered vs traded. All this will affect the market and is part of the reason futures can be in contango/backwardation vs spot. As for swaps, they're gonna trade lock-step with futures anyways and ultimately the buying/selling pressure still lands on the futures unless its some obscure transaction. The CMEs comments lately makes me believe its not.

Full_Pear449

Went long May (CME) oil options 110 strike @$7.50 , they closed at $9.30

Careful_Response4694

Lol wtf I thought hyperliquid was really like some official afterhours CME futures exchange, it's a pegged shitcoin? https://preview.redd.it/aismqw7x75pg1.jpeg?width=618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16876a02dc934853475e37052517f9ac3149d682

DesticularDorsion

The hyper liquid volume is like 7 million dollars. The CME trades a billion barrels per day in underlying.

Fatus_Assticus

CME is closed

BarbellPadawan

It’d be sweet if the Treasury lost its ass in the CME futures markets and the entire Administration had to go on Squid Game.

Dapper-Video-791

Lmao,  this administration is apparently using the US treasury to intervene in the oils futures markets. Head of CME warned Trump administration that they risk "biblical disaster" if they intervene.   https://www.ft.com/content/823657f2-4f8b-4325-88db-fbbdba6c9e17 WTF, the USG holding naked shorts on oil? I guess when this blows up it will be the most epic loss post on WSB. At least the USG can print $2 trillion to cover the loss.

BarbellPadawan

Pre CME Futures down 3% holy shit

BarbellPadawan

Who would operate as prime broker for The US Treasury if they start participating in CME futures markets?

Full_Pear449

Went long Friday May 110 calls @ $7.00 on CME. They closed @ $9.30.....Range for the day was $6.40-$10.10

Full_Pear449

Went long Friday May 110 calls @ $7.00 on CME. They closed @ $9.30

modder9

Nah, we already had a NYSE episode on 9/11. Let them take out CME this time.

Careful_Response4694

Oh ok, just took a look and there's more than enough emergency funding for this sort of situation. Zeroeth line is shorts getting margin liquidated, first line is contract holders reselling, second line is brokers emergency funds, third line is CME group emergency reserves which are $1.6 billion, so over $20k per contract most likely, more than enough.

Longjumping_Tree6561

BREAKING: The head of CME Group has warned the Trump Administration it risks a “biblical disaster” if it attempts to lower oil prices by intervening in derivatives markets during the war with Iran.