Reddit Posts
Last week's market performance and economic news review
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 29 - Feb 04 2024
Dear TDA or Schwab peeps - can you help out? - CFTC combos with opts & spot
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 22-28 2024
Summary of FOMC voters' speeches in January 2024 - very meaningful for interest rates movement ahead!
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 15-21 2024
BANBET: The 10y-2y treasury spread is gonna go >1% by Jan 2025. $50k on the table.
Rate cuts chances INCREASED after hot cpi
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 08-14 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 01-07 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 25-31 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 27 - Dec 03 2023
Wall Street Journal - Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 20-26 2023
How to trade the newish micro Midcap 400 and SmallCap 600 stock index futures?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 13-19 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 06-12 2023
FOMC Coming Up, Pullback Bid In View For XAUUSD
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 30 - Nov 05 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 23-29 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 16-22 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 09-15 2023
just spitballin' ... the "Wheel" except with forex -- is there a name for this ?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 02-08 2023
The everything Bubble and why it can’t be blown up again.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 25 - Oct 01 2023
Where may I buy Bitcoin/Ether LEAPS options in the United States?
Macro Support In View For The XAUUSD (GOLD)!!
Hopefully a redditor (?) can provide input -- JPY:USD spot forex position fully hedged via CME JPY
September 20, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Statement
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 11-17 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 28 - Sep 03 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 21-27 2023
CME Group and CF Benchmarks Launch BTC and ETH Reference Rates
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 14-20 2023
Interest rates should stay around 5% for longer — even as inflation falls, top economist Jim O’Neill says
A Time Traveler's strategy (Final). Reinvestment of profits according to the Kelly criterion.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 07-13 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 31-August 6 2023
How does a small business (really small) hedge their exchange risk exposure? I need to hedge only $1000 exposure to Yen but cannot find a future contract this small. Any help or advice?
July 26, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 24-30 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 17-23 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 10-16 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 10th, 2023
CME Group: if you think WTI is a manipulated commodity or a necessity- it once upon a time was until 1983
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 03-09 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 26 - July 02 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 19-25 2023
The Hawkish Pause… 6-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
June 14, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
The Fed will be making a big mistake if it skips a rate hike today, top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns
Is there a BoEWatch tool to measure market sentiment to rate rise expectations?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 12-18 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 05-11 2023
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chan
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chance of two 0.25% rate hikes in July)
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 29-June 4 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 22-28 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 15-21 2023
How can you trade interest rate futures as a retail investor?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 08-14 2023
Stock futures are flat as traders await inflation data later this week
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
May 3, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Stocks could soon retest all-time highs as markets react to possible 'thesis-changing' final rate hike from the Fed
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 01-07 2023
Market Recap - 4/25/23 - Economy is flashing red while companies beating estimations left and right
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 24 - .May 01 2023
The Federal Reserves Internal Turmoil, Recent Economic Reports and How To Profit - The Case for NUGT, UGL, AGQ, and Crypto
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 17-23 2023
Mentions
Gold will likely start to recover over the next few days to weeks to its pre-Iran-strike price of $5300-5400/toz. With rising stagflation concerns and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, investors will turn to back speculative commodities, like gold, as a hedge. CME lowering margin rates for gold and silver also acts as a nice tailwind.
Come to CME and trade outright and options. CLJ6 (APR)
Sub is sponsored by state street and not CME or cboe
Holy shit, WTI might be at $94 by the CME close
How long till CME removes long position from oil futures? 🤣
So you check CBOE and not CME. Highly regarded. Btw today at 8.30 most bullish jobs report ever. Did you see yesterday DJT live speech? I will personally assure financial oil doesn't spike further. I recently achieved DOW 50k, also a highest S&P, you know, people said those where 4y goal and I did it in one. You know we are in the golden age 🪙 lmao
Great write up. I havent tracked the options prices themselves but that sounds interesting ill have to look into that. I pay for the mid tier TV and CME live prices so im curious if the options would be as well.
I'll differentiate between charting & trading platforms. For my simple stock charting (EW & Fib) I prefer ChartIQ from CME on Yahoo. For forex, I prefer MT4 w/StoneX. For placing option / stock orders currently with Schwab & simply login & trade thru the web. Recently learned that Tasty Trade offers their desktop on Linux which I'll be testing on Zorin OS as a possible replacement for schwab as a broker. fwiw.. if you see my lack of studies / indicators on a chart you would most likely laugh.
Karma and account age requirements getting raised like margin requirements by the CME. puts on this sub
The names for the chicago Bulls and chicago Bears were invented by the guys at the CME.
Right now on CME: S&P= -.5% gold apr= + 1.45%
so, stocks pumped, crypto pumped, DXY pumped, and bond yields pumped (aka US bonds sold) - silver, gold, copper, and all miners tanked... why? my theory: MMs/CME/Treasury/Fed are working together to give institutions/big $ an off-ramp from US equities... no big selloff, no shock to the system. but how? why? 1. institutions used the morning to pull out of PAPER metals positions, bringing all metal numbers down, DXY up. 2. DXY and BTC have been correlated for a while now, so DXY action gave BTC a pump. 3. by bringing down metals for the day, liquidity fills out into tech/small caps for a few hours. where it all goes from here is anybody's guess, but i think every move that's happened today so far, except for BONDS SELLING OFF/yields going up, were all fake moves to avert the appearance of a market crash. the market "crash" will be lengthened over weeks.
Futes are (NKD on CME) (also SGX)
I use CME Group, but its also on hood.
What are the changes CME stops the futures trading tomorrow because of unscheduled maintenance?
I hope there’s a massive uptick at CME open so I can put on a massive 1DTE short position and lock in some overprice premium on the IV spike.
What else is there to buy? So called “defensive” stocks are sitting at historically elevated valuations, too crowded already, you’re paying more for a burger flipper company than for Microsoft. Precious metals is a crowded trade, plus there is no physical metal to cover the withdrawals, custodian vaults are about to dry up, what do you think CME would do if there’s such a risk? Check the Hunt Brothers story. Everything related to short term volatility like defense contractors, oil and gas companies is overcrowded by bulls, and when volatility drops, it annihilates all these companies in an instant rather than a slow bleed. I just don’t see Berkshire playing a short term game here, they usually hunt for underpriced stocks, and there are no more obvious picks as of today but Tech.
I earnestly hope that 🌽 pumps into tomorrow’s CME open. Going to short the shit out of /BTC front month.
futures on CME boomed still on Friday
hmmm... now it makes sense CME "had technical difficulites" - metals about to enter a short squeeze babyyyyyy
The CME is a casino, and the house always wins.
The CME glitch makes sense now.
CME gap right at your liquidation. What could go wrong..
WOW. Such a prolific writer with a command of the English language that is far superior to my own. Such an original voice of insulting talk. What I do know is tomorrow, when the market opens, you will be wondering what and how to do. And I will be drinking coffee talk with my former desk. By the way since you are SO SO smart, you should join the CME Trading Challenge, there is one coming up in March.
Hey bros its the CME GROUP HERE. I just wanted to share we were about to bleed out on silver shorts so we decided to just halt orders and cancel them until we made some tweaks to our trades so they go our way tomorrow. We still cool, right?
CME still has a deficit of -16-17 million ounces of silver 👀
CME halted the trade wednesday, it's rigging time because they're Butt Naked on them !
March Silver contract open interest: 109 million oz CME registered silver in vaults: 86 million oz
I'm buying a shit ton of CME this morning, shit might jump far today
COMEX/CME can't keep silver down forever especially with the insane demand and reserves being low AF in Shangai. US market is already basically fake, with Shangai being almost 90% physical delivery on futures, and their reserves basically 10 year low, is all you need to know about silver. Paper silver is gonna expose Comex and probably make companies distrust it and not use it at all, with China gaining the upper hand yet again
CME halting on "Technical difficulties" Fucking "problem" is them over selling and periodically pulling blatantly corrupt shit to shake out leveraged buyers and jack margin requirements.
Bruh when wall street built their trading machine they have one in Chicago with no vents and parts of still from the cold war...and it broke down recently... On November 27, 2025, the CME's electronic "trading machine" (the Globex platform) suffered a massive 10-hour shutdown. This global disruption was caused by a cooling system failure at a CyrusOne data center in the Chicago area, freezing prices for oil, gold, and equity futures until engineers could restart the chillers 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
Silver +5% on low volume CME group: Our servers overheated/crashed/technical issues, pausing all trades Silver down 30% on historic volume CME group: Works like a charm
CME "technical issues" got me spooked.
You say after CME takes away the buy button when their silver supply is massively over shorted, I mean when their supply does not match how much they need to deliver… JFC this is the same play book
Problem with CME trying to force sales of Silver through margin requirements and pauses to keep the price down for Asia to just buy up is eventually you run out of Silver
$600 realized loss on GLD 1DTEs today courtesy of a boring SOtU and yet more bullfuckery from CME cucking the strong upward trend. "Technical difficulties" smh corrupt fucks. O well, was an optimistic bet on house money anyway lol.
Of course CME experiences a "cooling issue" when hedgies are about to get rinsed.
CME presumably got whoever they needed to sell and not stand for delivery, then reopened and the price tanked in a single candle 🙄
CME Group said on Wednesday that trading has been suspended for its CME Globex Metals and Natural Gas...
CME haling silver trading right when it was about to blast through $92, a key resistance level, citing 'technical issues' is bullish af
The halt, which CME said lasted about 35 minutes, came on the same day that the futures contract for March delivery expired, a key date for traders looking to roll over their positions. Futures rose before settling 1.9% higher at $2.969 per million British thermal unit. Trading in metals, including gold and copper, on Globex was also halted before resuming at around 1:45 p.m. Central Time. The latest glitch “erases confidence over liquidity and price discovery at a time when the market has been contending with a market dysfunctioning given the wild price swings,” Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA.
I wanna bitchslap somebody at CME baddddd
No I know about those, but I was trying to figure out if something happened with CME
CME ES futes better have technical difficulties now to fuck up all the Greek bullshit.
Idk, with he CME halt it might jump once it's fixed
doesn't look like CME is coming back on in cash market
CME is sketchy. Changing margin requirements, random halts…
CME has reported that Natural Gas trading has resumed as of 1:45 p.m. EST, and all metals will resume trading at 2:45 p.m. EST. They have also advised the following actions as a result of the technical issue. Prior to market reopening, CME will cancel all orders except for good until cancelled orders. Those orders will remain working.
CME pausing metals options lmao Corrupt sacks of shit
🚨CME halts trading in all metals and natural gas. A "technical issue" is cited. Nothing to do with any incoming world events
"CME Globex Natural Gas futures and options markets will Pre-open at 12:45 Central Time and Open at 12:50 Central Time. All day orders and GTDs with today’s date will be cancelled. All GTCs that have been acknowledged will remain working."
>CME: Global metals, natural gas futures & options markets halted Here comes the silver fuckery
CME Halts Globex Metals, Natural Gas Futures on Technical Issues [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/cme-halts-globex-metals-natural-gas-futures-on-technical-issues](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/cme-halts-globex-metals-natural-gas-futures-on-technical-issues)
CME trading halted, technical issues lmfao
"Due to technical issues, the CME Globex Metals and Natural Gas futures and options markets have been halted. The following actions will be taken on CME Globex Metals and Natural Gas Futures and Options prior to the market opening: All day orders and GTDs with today’s date will be cancelled. All GTCs that have been acknowledged will remain working."
Metals and natural has are indeed halted on CME. I have /GC, /MGC, and /NG contracts that are just frozen
gold and silver frozen on CME
CME really needs something in between /MTB which is 1/10 of a bitcoin or $640 and /BTC which is 5 bitcoin or $320K lol
SLV will increase as it is a proxy for physical silver. Here is what Google says "If the [CME (COMEX)](https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/video/is-silver-about-to-break-the-comex/) runs out of deliverable silver, it would likely cause a severe "break" between the paper futures market and the physical market, triggering a violent surge in silver prices ". SLV will rise in line with silver prices since it correlates very closely to the silver price since it is based on physical silver ownership in vaults.
CME is glitching Who’s ready to party?
MBT futes on CME, only $4k margin ish
It will. China is cutting off paper trade this week and CME has delivery at end of month. DO NOT be surprised if we see another stock market "outage" like last time there was a delivery. Last month had record deliveries. The countries want their physical. Musical chairs time.
This is from google AI search; Small-cap value stocks historically offer higher long-term returns (14.3% annually since 1926) than the S&P 500 (10.2%), but come with higher volatility and extended periods of underperformance. While the S&P 500 dominates with large-cap tech growth, small-cap value acts as a diversified, cheaper alternative, often outperforming during economic recoveries, despite lagging behind for most of 2017–2024. CME Group +4 Key Differences: Performance (Recent vs. Long-Term): The S&P 500 has significantly outperformed small-cap value over the last five years. However, historically, small-cap value has delivered superior long-term returns. Risk & Volatility: Small-cap value is more volatile and sensitive to interest rates, as these companies often carry more debt and are more sensitive to economic downturns. Valuation: Small-cap value stocks are generally cheaper than the S&P 500, with lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and higher dividend yields. Composition: The S&P 500 is heavily concentrated in massive tech firms (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple), while small-cap value is more diversified across sectors, reducing "AI bubble" risk. Market Cycle: Large-cap (S&P 500) tends to win in late-stage expansion, while small-cap value often wins in early-stage recovery and higher inflationary environments. CME Group +5 Which to Choose? S&P 500: Suitable for investors seeking steadier growth, lower risk, and high liquidity, as recommended by Warren Buffett. Small-Cap Value: Best for long-term investors willing to accept higher short-term volatility for the potential of higher long-term returns (mean reversion). Combination: Combining both can reduce overall portfolio risk due to their low correlation. YouTube +4 As of early 2026, small caps have shown signs of catching up, having outperformed in early 2026, suggesting a potential rotation.
There were a suspicious amount of bot posting green future prior to CME bid session opens while future b/s spread was in fact down. Now there’s still large amount of active bot spamming open by green.
Forte afternoon. Tomorrow’s moves thread opens up, followed by CME.
Gold is super volatile right now. You might double your money, you might halve it. Sentiment toward gold is strong and it should climb but the CME margins climb in lock step which keeps the spot prices contained. Parabolic growth for precious metals has already happened, you might see 20% ish (maybe closing Fy26 at $6k/oz) but you’re not going to see another 100%+ year like last year. So consider your options, mining plays are pretty good right now but if your looking for return & growth weight up how much risk you are prepared to gamble on. Historically holding gold hasn’t been that great, it’s good to retain wealth in times of volatility but right now it’s being treated like a growth / momentum investment when it’s an asset in reality.
CME raised SLV margin 10 times and its still behaving like a meme coin. LOL
CME: look the best we can do is give you 24/7 ways to lose your money on 🌽 starting in May
What are the odds for CME margin hike?
Rumors of something going on with SLV at the end of the month. Something something physical supply something something CME price fixing.
Im mostly at Stocks and ETFS and for the cash CME
Fuk this. I’m going to take a nap. I’ll meet up with you guys for CME open.
The CME margin hike from 9% to 11% was basically a targeted liquidation event for anyone who wasn't deep in the green already. It’s the classic "change the rules when the house starts losing" move. When you have that much open interest vs registered deposits, the bullion banks have zero choice but to trigger a massive sell-off to shake out the physical delivery demands. I’ve seen similar distribution patterns on the TradingWizard AI charts right before the drop—liquidity hunts followed by a complete break in structure once the retail shorts were wiped out. Silver at $121 was clearly the peak of the squeeze. Now we're just seeing the "orderly" return to the mean while the big guys reload their shorts. Anyone trying to catch the falling knife here is going to get shredded.
I use the CBOE institutional data but not sure if they offer that for the SPXW. Although they do offer tick data for most markets. You might want to check with the CME Group because they offer similar products as the CBOE.
If the short option is in the money, or even close to being in the money, then close it before the trading day ends. Practically, if it's a cash settled option, then it doesn't really matter. CME options on futures contracts are the only ones I use that are cash settled, but there may be others.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html The chance of a June cut have climbed slightly on CME, not basing this off of Polymarket tards
SLV does not fluctaute with the 'paper' price... which is the futures/CME price. SLV holds physical - so it fluctuates with the SPOT/physical price. In reality the spot/future price does not diverge so it's academic. But in the crisis scenario you're describing they might... But who cares because SLV will be valued relative to spot. Again, there's no advantage to fucking around with physical.
There's a real answer to your question. SLV may be backed, but it's price fluctuates with the 'paper' price. So if the CME refuses to deliver and suppresses their paper silver price relative to what physical silver is getting in the real world, SLV will not perform. I don't know if I buy all these theories, but that's the 'why' you were looking for.
QuantPedia estimates an annualized risk-free rate of 3.69% for Bitcoin when accounting for the U.S. dollar risk-free rate and using CME futures data.
(I'm out of a market making seat now) When in a MM seat, if we are "controlling" market movements it's by proxy; it's usually an unfortunate consequence of a hedging program because of a position that's too large or concentrated- and that hedging works against us, technically, by nudging price towards pinning our long. As an extreme example, once midsummer 2017 we had so much gamma from a CME flow (catalyst hedge futures call 3x1) that if the market moved up $1.00 we had something like 2500 futures to sell, and vice versa on a down move (futures to buy) - that's a miserable position to be in, and when you outsize the market you usually don't wind up very happy about it
[CME Group to Launch Single Stock Futures ](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-to-launch-single-stock-futures-302684107.html)
CME March silver contracts coming up
Are you looking for single stock futures in your area? Use CME to find the right match for you.
BREAKING: CME Group to launch single stock futures this summer, enabling leveraged long and short trading 24/5.
BREAKING: CME Group to launch single stock futures this summer, enabling leveraged long and short trading 24/5.
Why you say that? CME margin increase went into effect today and it still went up 8%, not saying it can't go down but just wondering if there was some news
CME’s SLV vault is almost out. Something’s gonna give.
CME keeps raising margin requirements, currently at 18%, potentially getting 2 + more hikes by the time silver calms down if history can teach us anything. These prices are not ‘safe’ just because they’re lower than the peak, many traders who found themselves underwater suffer from sunk cost fallacy and this time is no different. What is certain though is that with the increased requirements, more forced selling and pain on the way. Silver Thursday didn’t rebound itself in a week, and this time the leverage issue is a much bigger problem than people can imagine. I don’t know what day this week we see another leg down but I’m positioned to capitalize, I think 55-60% chance we see a dip past 50 this week
CME is proud to introduce inverse leverage starting at .85-1
Remember what happened last time CME increased margin requirements for gold and silver?
Kinda happened with gold. CME raised margins requirements, prices dipped and margins got called all the way down. A lot of bag holding but gold will be a good play for the rest of the year so idk if anyone’s gonna loose that much. I guess the same is absolutely possible with BTC on the way down
Just IMO but the biggest risk is not Comex default (however, it is still possible) but export limitations. For example: your contracts have settled, you have your silver at CME-approved werehouse but you can't take it and ship to China/India/whereever. Then the Comex price (as well as all derivatives bound to it) will collapse. On the other hand, MCX, SHFE, SGE and physical prices will skyrocket to the Moon. Sure it is not 100% possible risk and Canadian PSLV may survive some apocalyptic scenarios but physical is always safer.
Met a dude that works at CME group while at a friends party, I looked him dead in the eyes and told him I donated my port to his company last week, I then shook his hand and said I’ll see you when the casino opens at 6 on Sunday.
At least as reliable as CME Futes