AAA

BladeFireQ

USA is about to be renamed to AAA, America of America of the Americans 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅

kenyonorama

I have a Sandisk MP3 player from… 2005 maybe? I can’t change the songs on it so anytime I can be bothered to find a AAA battery I get this nostalgic music bomb

Liquid_Sarcasm

Ahh I see your point, but the downgrade would be based upon the ability to repay its debts, not the value of the dollars exchange rate to other currencies. It’s an important distinction. Credit ratings are about credit worthiness, the ability to repay the debt, not its relative value of exchange. The fear of devaluation if the dollar would cause investors to demand a higher yield for the debt. All debt is calculated as the risk free rate plus risk premium(what investors demand for the chance of taking any risk). In other words the risk premium is the increased yield. In this case it is funky because the US used to be AAA, thus it was the risk free rate. The rising yields we are seeing is the added risk premium.

berniebueller

Why doesn’t nvidia just sell it to the open market for $30? Because there is no market that will pay that price. This scheme is exactly what was happening before the GFC, new houses being handed to people who couldn’t afford the repayments and 1000’s of house mortgages bundled up as AAA rated investments and sold to ordinary workers superfunds. I’m sure this isn’t not the worst verging on fraudulent stuff going on within Wall Street right now, the world is full of stuff like this atm.

-mini-kuma

TTWO is a one-trick pony. GTA6 has to sell astronomical numbers for the next 5 years to get valuation of TTWO. All while the competition from China for AAA games is exploding and Japanese games resurgence. Good luck though. Only have a few shares I plan to cash out once the game is released.

hotforlowe

Controversially, not calls or puts, but rather FRN and AAA CLO income…

RuleSafe6767

"What is the next tranche of leaps we need to sell for our collared fund?" *2028 11, Sir.* "The build out is just getting started, and we don't expect to see demand matching supply until mid 2028" Wash, rince, repeat. Remember when in 2023 they were talking about 2024 being the year that Hollywood releases a AAA feature-length AI-gen movie (scaring actors to license the likeness)? They also predicted 2024 would be the year that AI-gen music tops the music charts. https://time.com/6322664/state-of-ai-2023/

CollegeSorry5923

AAA American asperges association

YourChildhood5762

I don't give a crap what the AAA says, gas is way under $5, close to last year's average and fifty cents over what it was when Biden was in office. If you're paying more, it's probably because your city government is lining their pockets.

DerpBaggage

AAA states national average at 4.09, a year ago average was 3.21.

Basic-Initiative-298

They work very hard at AAA studios. It’s the nepotism and cronyism at the executive level rotting the industry.

Adrian12094

good, fuck AAA companies

iamjt

Bruh they are chucked full for 3 years and any pop will only happen when one of their collateralized gpu obligations start to fuck up. Even then they will start to mix these failing tranches into their mag 7 tranches to make them look AAA

Travolta1984

My bear case is, how many of these players will be simply migrating from GTA 5 to 6, and how many will be new players? There's been reports that the younger generations don't care too much about AAA gaming, and with GTA6 releasing on a smaller install base when compared to GTA5, it remains to be seen if there will be indeed a huge bump to their revenue stream. Plus Take Two has been bleeding money since they acquired Zynga in 2022.

shinobi6siege

Same for most people; the paycheck has on average has not kept up with inflation. You used to be able to buy games for $20. Games that weren't just a lease, that didn't need an online connection to download, that didn't need a day one patch. Especially with digital only releases the games should be cheaper. And if they made a good game, they don't need to raise prices; indie games like Hollow Knigh, Terraria, Stardew Valley, etc. sold very well and prove you don't need this massive team to deliver a great game. Constantly these AAA studios keep it safe while having a massive team that take years and years to make one subpar game, while being confused why it didn't sell well. Indie games prove that adding suits often detracts from the experience and ultimately how much money a game will make. $60 is still a lot to spend on a game, again wages have not increased 1:1 with inflation

Tuomas90

"Potential revenue." That's like me saying:"I could get a AAA++ on that test next week I haven't studied for! Or not..."

Upper-Difficulty660

# What is winter-blend vs. summer-blend gasoline? Winter-blend gas has a higher Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), which is a measure of fuel evaporation at a given temperature. This higher RVP is mostly due to a higher percentage of butane in the winter-blend fuel mixture. Butane—which you may also know as lighter fluid—has high volatility and vaporizes at lower temperatures, a helpful combination when you start your car’s engine on a cold winter morning. Other additives in the winter-blend formulation are there to prevent fuel line freezing and improve engine performance when temperatures drop extremely low. from AAA this is another source

iamjt

In 2025 and 2026, the market saw explosive growth in GPU-Collateralized Asset-Backed Securities (ABS). Neoclouds and hyperscalers package their H100/B200 clusters into bankruptcy-remote Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), bundle the rental yield from AI labs, get an investment-grade rating (often A or AAA due to early over-collateralization and tier-1 tenant off-take agreements), and sell them to pension funds. Michael can you do your thing and ask Goldman to create swaps for us to buy

InvestingMonkeys

A Genesis/Mega Drive game often sold at up to $70. In fact, found this: >In the 1990s, a standard new video game typically cost between $40 and $70 USD, depending on the platform and storage medium. While these prices seem comparable to modern titles, when adjusted for inflation, a $60 game in 1995 would cost over $115 today, revealing that retro gaming was significantly more expensive for the average consumer than current AAA releases. Game development costs have gone up since those days and prices have stayed pretty much the same and have ongoing development costs post launch unlike back then which when you bought it, that's all you got.

Slimsuper

Gamers can be a nightmare but as a collective are generally right about the way the industry has gone. The AAA industry for example is plagued with out of touch CEOs and upper management that just chase dollar bills over quality, its become more about milking the consumer than being passionate about making a good game. Its like the industry has lost its soul over the years. Not to say there are still some gems out there but there’s a lot of crap to wade through.

kkyonko

That is exactly why I said I don't invest in gaming. It's a hobby that gives me joy, I don't want it to get worse because of shareholders expecting every game to sell a ton of copies. It's a big reason AAA games have generally become stagnant, most companies don't want to take actual interesting risks.

Valnar

>One of the larger narratives in gaming is that development costs are constantly ballooning and Gamers throw a giant hissy fit anytime companies try to do anything that would slightly increase their margins. The problem is that these AAA games are getting too expensive. Trying to increase the margin on those super expensive games just means that the quality of the game is going down. There's also like just huge diminishing returns on the expensive games being good as games. When you have something like Expedition 33 that both looks good and plays amazingly, or something like Mecha Chamelon which is just an engaging game, why should a gamer care that much about some game that is more expensive and trying to nickel and dime?

kkyonko

AAA games are now $70-$80 not including DLC and MTX. I know this is a stocks sub but consumers are not the ones to blame, it's the never ending growth shareholders expect.

yosrush

I own a little Nintendo and a moderate amount of Ubisoft. Used to also hold Activision before the merger. Some Microsoft/Amazon/Google, but wouldn't categorise them as gaming companies. The depression in gaming stock is multifactorial. Higher budgets and development costs means if a AAA flops, it hurts a lot more. There is higher competition from older games and indie games, because of backwards compatibility and a broader marketplace/ecosystem. And similar to the struggles of legacy media (TV/Film/Cinema), there's also more competition for your time from social media. How much more time do you spend on Reddit, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, Tiktok, Discord, Twitch, when you would have been gaming instead as a kid? Streaming service like Netflix and Disney+ suffer the same fate. Then there's risk of AI disrupting the entire industry. All the talented developers, designers, animators, motion/voice actors, writers, etc losing their jobs because a kid can vibe code their own cloud streaming version of Breath of the Wild. Saying all that, I own them because of the IP, and happy with the price I paid. AI can't create IP with a 30-40 year history that can be adapted to different forms of media and consumption. Gaming is more mentally satisfying than doomscrolling social media, and I don't think it's an industry that's going to disappear any time soon.

SerpentRoyalty

I don't and haven't done much research on it either. Independent gaming companies are always struggling and most AAA companies ran out of money and sold. So it just always looked like bad business.

vik556

Banks?? They are holding AAA piece. I’m not worried for them

Various_Couple_764

I own MLP (master limited partnership) fund it invest in midstream oil and gas companies that operate pipelines and refineries. Ihave EMO 8..% yield. BDC (Business development corporations) I have PBDC 9% yield. for utilities and infrastructure UTF 7%and UTG 6.2%. these funds are 20 years old and have never cut t or reduced there dividend. CLO (colateral Loan obligations) Very low risk loan obligations JAAA 5.5% yeidl AAA rated CLOs. CLOZ 8% yeidl BBB CLOs.

CyberClawX

Meta is in the forefront of VR, bought out Oculus VR - with one of the OG God-like Developers of old, John Carmack. The tech is just too niche and expensive to go anywhere anytime soon, and they never swayed any AAA developer to make a decent system seller. Apple, Sony, even Valve, they all have like 1 or 2 headset experiences, they barely suport. Meta is the only that is still investing in the tech.

par-double

Somewhat rhetorical, but what happens to Coreweave’s ability to raise capital if their AAA partners get downgraded? What if operating costs inflate on multiple fronts? What if a fall weather event delays construction across multiple projects?

Hypewillims23

To be honest, GTA 6 is still immensely anticipated no matter how long it takes. If anything, the wait has made the anticipation bigger than ever. Rockstar isn’t a game studio known for skimping out & recycling games every year like other AAA companies (ex. The CODs, 2Ks, Maddens). They’re in a dominant & unique position where they can take many years between releases and have massive funds to bring in the best talent to develop & design a truly special game over that time period.

bacon_cake

Yeah exactly. Because if it's "guaranteed" it's either backed up by some AAA institution (ie the government) or they've got your investment plus interest in escrow which is pretty much either a ponzi or renders the whole thing pointless.

BanditoBoom

Let’s say you have quite a bit of household debt. Most of your debt is long-term (20 or 30 year), but is floating rate. It is simple interest, with payments twice a year. You have a good credit score. You can service your debt payments just fine, but the cost of your debt just keeps rising and rising with rates increasing. One of your lenders gives you an offer. They will let you refinance your ling-term debt into shorter term debt…AAAAND they will give you a significantly lower interest rate to do so. Making the cost of your debt service go down. This is what the treasury is doing. They realized their ling-term debt is competing with AAA rated corporate debt issuance. If they keep issuing on the long end they will just keep exploding the cost of debt. Is it technically manipulation? Maybe. But I view it as an entity just making mice to manage its debt.

Low_Plastic363

Heard an interesting theory: bonds yields are partly increasing because there is so much corporate AAA debt being issued for Capex and AI build out. There's only so much fixed income debt-buying money to go around. Rates keep going up to entice more, in investment grade bonds, treasuries, private debt, but that pulls people out of equities. Eventually debt market is saturated, equities and depressed, and we get terrible combo of new equities cash raises and government austerity. Plus private borrowing was at high rates which drags on growth ability. The capex ironically kills the market and pops the bubble

Low_Plastic363

Heard an interesting theory: bonds yields are partly increasing because there is so much corporate AAA debt being issued for Capex and AI build out. There's only so much fixed income debt-buying money to go around. Rates keep going up to entice more, in investment grade bonds, treasuries, private debt, but that pulls people out of equities. Eventually debt market is saturated, equities and depressed, and we get terrible combo of new equities cash raises and government austerity. Plus private borrowing was at high rates which drags on growth ability. The capex ironically kills the market and pops the bubble.

strip_club_dj

Honestly lately the indie game companies are where it's out. Rarely do I see a new AAA game come out nowadays that is actually worth the $60+ price tag. Of course I primarily use pc so steam sales come frequently and I haven't purchased a game for full price in a long time.

Ok_Scientist_2762

I was speaking to bonds generically as the US bonds are merely highly trusted bonds. Maybe I was highlighting that faith in the US repayment has recently changed their rating downward. (not AAA any more)

flicter22

Wall Street really said "what if we took the most volatile asset in the semiconductor cycle and made structured credit products out of it." The 2008 guys are watching this from their Hamptons decks with nostalgia. AAA-rated assumes stable utilization and no supply shock. One TSMC disruption or a hyperscaler capex pause and the assumptions fall apart. That said, GPU-backed lending is genuinely a thing now — Microsoft and Google are using H100 fleets as collateral. It's just the "AAA" part that's doing a lot of heavy lifting.

GoTeamLightningbolt

Pokémon are mortgage-backed securities. MTG cards are AAA bonds. No I will not elaborate.

GoTeamLightningbolt

Magic cards are the AAA bonds of the collectable market.

PandaDuckMonster

hey it's a very valid reason - hands on experience - buy what you know. Let's be real, those of us who bought NVDA way back when weren't going "we're going to win the AI race!". It's "I need to buy the latest Nvidia GPU to play my AAA games"

Paul_Robert_

Virgin AAA game studios: *Too scared to release their game near GTA VI* 😰 Chad Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee Remastered developers: We know what we've got! *Releases game a week before GTA VI* 🗿

KweenieQ

Bond funds are not like bonds. When you buy into a bond fund, you're buying shares of someone else's bond trades. Your shares rise and fall with market prices on the secondary bond market. More volatility with less return relative to risk. As with equities, you can lose principal. And you have no assurance of any particular rate of return. When you buy noncallable investment-grade corporate bonds or US Treasury bonds, you're lending money to those issuers at a known rate of return. The bond rating (AAA-B) reflects credit worthiness. Holding a bond to maturity pays interest, and face value is returned to you. In that scenario, you lose money only if the issuer goes out of business. (Second possible way to lose money is if you're forced to sell off early and the market price is down. That's why you try hard not to do that.) How much risk a retirement portfolio can tolerate depends a lot on the numbers: total portfolio size relative to operational expenses, plus how tied income is to equity markets. Age and temperament of the retiree matter secondarily: age because the recovery runway's shorter than for a 30-year-old; temperament because retirees want to sleep at night. Fwiw, my portfolio hovers around 60/40 overall. My retirement accounts lean more conservative, while my taxable accounts run riskier. I pay my bills in retirement with sources not directly tied to any of that principal.

Buydipstothemoon

AAA and it's gone

Capital-Pineapple961

A shitty movie + interaction on Netflix is not gonna cut it and only have very minimal impact on GTA 6 overall. The fanbase expect an AAA game from the future. The fact that managment even mention this leaves me with doubts about the real sales numebers

DamnBored1

> But it's still pretty worrying what's gonna happen in a long term to investments ,the US economy or even economy on the global scale. Which is why they advise investors to have global exposure. Yes, the US is AAA rated but if that was the end of story you wouldn't be asking this question on this sub. As for the world, the world will still have humans and they'll need to consume things and build things. There's very low chance that the entire world chooses not to create/produce any value unless there's another Covid that locks people indoors or black death that starts killing people. As long as humans are around they'll keep creating something of value. So, a well balanced exposure to rest of the world should safeguard you from whatever doldrums the US economy and markets go through.

PaperHandsTheDip

The most profitable games tend to be made by smaller studios / teams tho. I worked with microsofts game studio years back on a AAA xbox title. Lotta the large companies are losing money like crazy on AAA games. It's not profitable like it used to be. The money is in things like roblox, minecraft, etc. Fairly simple games that are easy for all to access / play.

WilsonKh

The Nintendo Switch 2 has broken all-time sales records since its launch. A success despite Nintendo holding back its heavy hitters. Their exclusive line up since launch since launch has been worrying but it worked in their favor. (1) Wait for the S2 install base to grow (2) Coast on continued momentum of S1. Their sole S2 flagship Mario Kart World has been carrying, with key support from 3 Spin-offs - Donkey Kong, Pokopia and Splatoon. (No, the rest of the titles aren't system sellers) while sales of S1 titles and their upgrades continue in the millions despite being made to run on a device less powerful than today's smart phones. From the list of top 10 best selling S1 titles of all time - we have zero sequels/continuations outside of the next Pokemon mainline which is probably 15 months away. This all points to 1 conclusion (which is probably why the OP made his post) - Summer 2027 is when Nintendo starts to roll out the red carpet. Instead of spreading their big names over 7-8 years like they did on the Switch. We can expect an equal amount of AAA titles in 4 years. (assuming 7 year life cycle) This list includes: 20M++ unit sellers ($1.2B - $2.5B each) - Pokemon, Smash, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Zelda, Party, Animal Crossing, Switch Sports 10M++ unit sellers (600M - $1B) - Splatoon, Ocarina of Time, Luigi Mansion, Pokemon Legends, Pokemon Spinoffs, AAA-Remakes etc. *\*\* To be clear, 20M sales is no longer that impressive in this day and age, but it is still very much for platform-exclusives, because it sells the system itself.* All S2 is missing is GTA 6, since we already have Madden, Fifa, Call of Duty coming. This last point is important since the arguments against the Switch has always been its pathetic third party line up. This is now fixed with most relevant franchises all coming to the S2 alongside >20M-50M selling single titles like Cyberpunk, RDR and Harry Potter. \--- With all that "bull-scenario" said however, I won't be touching Nintendo for a while since (1) Japan politicians are doing weird shit (2) GTA will suck the air out of the ENTIRE entertainment ecosystem (including movies and TV) when it launches. I expect Nintendo to have a disappointment 2026 holiday season since they are literally the only platform without the "system seller" alongside a price increase. And then in 2027 - I expect Rockstar to announce a Switch port. It just seems to be the type of game made for handheld.

skilliard7

>20% in individual AAA-rated corporate bonds in 2025 averaged 5.3% interest per chatbot for almost $85K income taxed at ordinary income rates. If taxes are a concern buy tax exempt muni bonds

NathanielRochester

20% in individual AAA-rated corporate bonds in 2025 averaged 5.3% interest per chatbot for almost $85K income taxed at ordinary income rates. If that 20% were held in VTSAX instead, per chatbot, you'd have incurred $16.3K income taxed at qualified dividend rates and $1.1K non-qualified dividends taxed at ordinary income rates. Some people love, love that asset allocation approach to which you refer. Another way would be to keep 5-10 years of living expenses in bonds or cash. To match the amount in bonds of the asset allocation approach (20% \* $8 million = $1.6 million), you'd have to be spending $1.6 million/10 years...$1.6 million./5 years = \[$160K...$320K\] per year. But if you spend less and don't expect to need the money for 5-10+ years, you can get away with less and get the more favorable tax treatment as well. Also, for the worst-case market performance, you'd need to replicate the economic policy mistakes of the 1930s/late 1960s-1970s and the Fed's and Congress's response to the Global Financial Crisis and during the pandemic seems like we've learned the lessons about acting assertively to counter economic downturns.

baby_budda

If you want a bit more juice for the squeeze there's JAAA, a AAA CLO ETF. it pays 5.3%. A little more income but a little more risk.

AlbertiApop2029

Whatever you do, don't research the private and corporate credit markets. Don't research the credit spreads. CCC vs AAA is just transitory. Don't wonder if the Japanese Yen has anything to do with the markets on Monday. Nothing to see here.

PassionLong5538

I’ve gotten more than my money’s worth this year already considering the yearly cost. Lots of solid indie games on there, as well as AAA titles.

SharkSapphire

Full text: July 26, 2026 Oil prices fell and stocks wavered on Monday as [fighting](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-war-pause.html) between the United States and Iran paused. The relative calm left investors hopeful that more energy might soon start flowing from the region, even though ships still faced dangerous conditions. Energy prices had surged throughout most of July as the cease-fire between the countries fell apart. Then, last week, oil [topped $100 a barrel](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/23/business/oil-price-100-dollars.html) after the Houthis, an Iran-backed group, broadened the conflict by [threatening a blockade](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/23/world/middleeast/what-to-know-iran-houthis.html) against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. But President Trump’s [decision to hold off](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/us/politics/trump-iran-military.html), at least temporarily, on a major escalation of the war brought renewed optimism among traders about a resolution. **Oil prices drop.** The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, fell 8.7 percent, to $88.36 a barrel. That is for oil to be delivered in September. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.5 percent to $82.61 a barrel for September delivery. Investors and analysts are focused on the continued disruption to shipping in the [Strait of Hormuz](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-what-to-know.html), the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, as well as threats to another strait, [the Bab al-Mandab](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/business/energy-environment/red-sea-saudi-arabia-houthis.html), at the mouth of the Red Sea. **Price of Brent crude oil** How much the international benchmark costs Jan. March May July 0 20 40 60 80 $100 per barrel **Shipping traffic reflects continued caution.** The number of ships that went through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday remained near its lowest levels in over two months. According to data from the maritime data firm Kpler, 11 vessels used the strait on Sunday, up from six the day before and about the same as on Friday. Before the war, more than 130 ships on average used the strait daily. The situation in the Red Sea remains fragile. The Houthi blockade of Saudi ports in the Red Sea led several Saudi vessels that were heading to Bab al-Mandab — a waterway that Saudi Arabia has turned to because of the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — to reverse course and head toward the Suez Canal. Still, some of those ships ended up turned around again and transited via Bab al-Mandab, suggesting that ship operators “are not uniformly avoiding the route,” according to Kpler. Most Saudi crude is destined for Asia. Traveling to Asia via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean and around the Cape of Good Hope adds an extra four weeks to the journey. It was too soon to determine the full impact of the Houthi threats on traffic in the Red Sea. The amount of oil and other products moving through the Bab al-Mandab strait fell about 50 percent compared with April through June, according to Clarksons, a ship broker. The number of supertankers crossing the strait also declined, averaging one a day over the past week, down from an average of three per day in the second quarter. Overall, a daily average of 31 vessels of all types passed through the Bab al-Mandab strait over the weekend. Any wide-scale movement away from Bab al-Mandab is likely to further tighten global energy supplies. **Global stocks rise modestly.** The S&P 500 wobbled on Monday as an initial optimism in response to easing Iran concerns tumbled amid persistent worries about spending among the big technology companies leading the build out of artificial intelligence. The index ended the day flat. Stocks in Asia mostly closed higher on Monday. The Chinese stock indexes all rose more than 1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.5 percent. In Europe, the Stoxx 600, a broad index that tracks the region’s largest companies, ended the day flat. **Gasoline prices hover above $4 a gallon.** The national average for a gallon of gas stayed at $4.11 on Monday, the same as the previous two days, according to the AAA motor club. The price, which had been coming down, [rose back above $4](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/business/four-dollar-gas-iran-war.html) last week after fighting restarted between Iran and the United States. Gas prices don’t move in lock step with crude, usually trailing increases or declines by a few days. The average price of diesel remained at $5.30 a gallon on Monday, up roughly 41 percent since the start of the war. [](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/business/energy-environment/gas-prices-map-iran-war-oil.html) [**How High Are Gas Prices Where You Live?**](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/business/energy-environment/gas-prices-map-iran-war-oil.html) [Here is a county-level look at where drivers are facing the highest costs.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/business/energy-environment/gas-prices-map-iran-war-oil.html) **What they are saying: Despite the lull, ’the situation remains highly fluid.’** The markets are treating the pause in the fighting between the United States and Iran as a positive development, but “the situation remains highly fluid,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note. The broadening conflict “raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes,” they added. Still, traders are welcoming the lull and are looking ahead to a busy week, “with central bank decisions, major economic releases and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention,” the analysts wrote.

Foremole_of_redwall

Imma start a hedge fund. Send me your money and I’ll invest in only the wisest, most conservative AAA hedges, shrubberies, and topiary financial institutions. 

Weak_Emu3659

the remake? There's a AAA MGS1 remake also coming in the not too distant future btw.

Reggio_Calabria

Why short the BB and BBB (Oracle, Datadog, Sandisk) with insane fees when you can short the AAA (Apple)?

thelegendJimmy27

You still think MSFT is issuing shares over the next 2 years? They have over $75B in cash, and can gain an extra $15B from stopping share repurchases. Confirmed they will be FCF positive for all of FY27 after deducting capex. Also one of 2 US companies with a AAA credit rating. So let me get this straight, not only does MSFT print free cash flow after deducting capex, they also have over $75B in cash to deploy and $15B in savings by pausing share buybacks. On top of that, it's one of the most credit worth companies in the US which can easily tap the debt markets. You truly are the greatest regard with the hubris to match. You absolute moronic dimwit. I will keep you updated after every quarterly earnings to remind you how confidently moronic you are. You absolute imbecile.

Beneficial-Age-9293

Look at analogous and mature software industries like video games, 70% of China AAA games built using Unreal Engine.  

UncleKarlito

I agree that if we 'could' we probably 'would' but  I don't think we have the tech to make this virtual reality society real anytime soon . We've seen technological advancements beginning to slow. It takes 7 years to make a AAA video game, that often looks or plays worse than one made years ago. 

FireNexus

Dude, I’m not jealous. What is it about your psychology that makes it impossible for you to imagine that not everyone is obsessed with their personal investments to the exclusion of anything else? That most people aren’t obsessed to the point of derangement so to their own net worth and incapable of observing the world through any other lens? Oh, you’re that fucking guy. That makes it worse, because you ring the most true in terms of your claims about what you do for a living. Usually these guys got caught up in crypto or whatever other scam and this is just more of that. But you, I kinda believe. If you’re not lying about what you do, then that really explains why this shit keeps happening. And it squares with how thee minds of scammy bubble situations managed to do what they did. You should know better. So there are two possibilities if you are what you say: 1. You don’t. Therefore, the fact that companies keep getting AAA+++ ratings is because the experts are, sometimes at least, completely full of shit. That would not surprise me, because the people deciding who are the experts are just more senior you. 2. You do. And, well, that is arguably darker. It also squares with how investment analysts were calling dogshit gold in public and and catshit in private in past bubbles. Fuck dude, you won’t even fucking learn from this. Because if you know better you’re already actively dumping whatever positions you have and maneuvering to make money on the crash. If not, you’re either too insulated to ever truly suffer a consequence from a failure or too stupid to understand that’s what’s happened. Either way… (redacted automod removed statement). Whatever the truth, your projection is tiresome. It’s what narcissists and sociopaths do when their lies are called out. It’s also what garden variety dumb motherfuckers do, but the Venn diagram between total dipshit and pathological liar overlaps very strongly when self-interest is in play. (Cooled and tried again, automod)

PenguinOfB00m

Horizon was good but arguably not AAA

Samjabr

Again, fully imbecilic take on reality: \- No valid argument exists that EVs have a cheaper cost of ownership = Less maintenance, less Gas. \- Rural Canada = Again going full retard and taking an applying anecdotal evidence to the majority. It might blow your mind to know that most people don't live in rural Canada. Also, FK Canada. I was very clear, a VAST MAJORITY of people do not drive more than 300 miles a day, live in rural areas, need capacity for more than 7 passengers, or need towing capacity. But retards will be retards. Good luck out there. **Sources:** \- According to data from the [AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety](https://aaafoundation.org/research/american-driving-survey-2024/), the average American driver travels roughly 31 miles per day, and total annual mileage averages about 11,500 to 13,500 \- automotive industry data shows that roughly **25%** pickup truck owners tow more than **once a year**. This means about **75% of truck owners tow once a year or less—or never at all** \- Electric vehicles typically experience a 20% to 40% reduction in driving range in freezing temperatures - So, an average driver living in cold climates only gets 200 miles to a full charge... Still, enough for approximately 5 days of driving. \- The United States has over 80,000 public EV charging station locations providing more than 250,000 individual charging ports nationwide. Urban and suburban regions have dense coverage, while rural areas feature sparse "charging deserts". Most major corridors and cities feature active Level 2 and DC fast-charging options. And this ignores the fact that your fking house is literally a charging station, dipshit.

visionarymind

Meh, I’ll visit 🎮🛑 after the gym today Is it priced as a AAA❓ not sure I wanna drop $80

DaIubhasa

Hahhaa. Good morning from NZ. This is fckng AAA cheers mate

RatGodFatherDeath

And you don’t even mention the several game studios they now own. First AAA game Exodus is slated for q1 2027

Sufficient_Habit5091

>Without leverage, however, Mr Buffett’s returns would have been unspectacular. The researchers estimate that Berkshire, on average, leveraged its capital by 60%, significantly boosting the company’s return. Better still, the firm has been able to borrow at a low cost; its debt was AAA-rated from 1989 to 2009. >″[Investor] Cliff Asness and the team at AQR did some great research and showed that what you accounted for the leverage Buffett applied through his reinsurance company. If you bought an index of stocks that had these same characteristics, you would have matched Buffett’s returns virtually,” said Swedroe. “Now today, every investor can own through ETFs or mutual funds the same types of stocks that Buffett has bought through companies that apply this academic research — companies like Dimensional, AQR, Bridgeway, BlackRock, Alpha Architect and a few others.”

squiercat

Ok if you want to get that technical, but probably 95% of the gaming community would agree that Larian is not a AAA studio. Other than that, even if it was AAA, it's not publicly traded. Most of the recent success stories have come from private companies, Steam being the best example of them all. That's where the wind is blowing in gaming.

didyouseetheecho

That just means they’re not shitty. “A **AAA (Triple-A) game** is a video game developed with a **large budget, a large development team, and high production values**. It’s similar to the concept of a blockbuster movie”

squiercat

They're not AAA for sure, they don't employ scummy AAA monetization techniques, and they don't adhere to any other AAA philosophies either.

didyouseetheecho

AAA games are not dead, they’ve been turned into a commodity by MBAs. CDprojek and larian have shown that they work. Some companies are doing poorly, but the TAM is huge and growing worldwide. It now includes both genders, which is fairly new over the last ten years. Indie studios are outcompeting a lot of big names right now but it’s because they have a better product. The big names are just going to have to improve AND increase production. Microsoft really missed the point aiming to be family friendly. Fallout games need a dark option. Call of duty rooms should be vile. The Witcher 3 leaned into what people want and they loved it, stardew valley did too. If they want old games to go away, the new games have to offer something new. Eventually these indie studios will eat their lunch and they’ll get bought out, or go public themselves. The market will continue to grow. Apple killed Motorola, we didn’t stop using cell phones.

squiercat

I agree with most of what you are saying, except video games. The whole AAA gaming sector is in shambles right now, including the likes of Ubisoft, Bethesda and Xbox by extension, and Sony. There's no happy path for consoles right now, and the future seems to be indie developers, but then again those are not public companies.

didyouseetheecho

I disagree almost completely. Space -going to be such a “total addressable market” and cost issue. Things like starlink and cell service are only valuable to rural areas and developing countries. Where’s the money gonna come from? Drones- I’m in. Nice mix of military, typical commercial and industrial uses. Quantum- 30 years, billions of dollars, 0 use cases. Unproven. Robots- agree and disagree. Humanoid robots are pointless. Smart factory robots specifically designed will absolutely take off even more. Energy- yep Wendy’s- obviously The next ten years companies are going to focus on vertical integration, and smart factories. They’re going to use BYD on how to function. Other winners: Logistics: completely self driving cars (go anywhere, no steering wheel) are more than 10 years away. Semis running predetermined routes delivering to nearly completely autonomous warehouses is coming quick. Video games: the industry has matured and is booming with revenue. Almost doubling streaming. When CD Project Red releases 5 AAA in 8 years or whatever the market is going to lose their mind. Microsoft will drop the hammer on their studios and the industry will balloon. Phone games will improve beyond all recognition in that time frame. Energy: world’s getting warmer and people will want ac. Data centers won’t go away. Electric cars are better than ice by every metric. We’re gonna have to make more power. Geothermal systems will be popular. I can see thorium or nuclear resurgence. The sector as a whole will do well. Desalination: more and more of the population lives where it’s dry. Eventually people will move or we will have to make water. Iran is dry dry. Saudi growing like crazy.

_D0MiNiX_

the only AAA investment grade advice

Okok28

You are stupid though. You are basically saying historical gains represent future gains. Yeah sure MSFT is up 800% last 10 years, you really think that will happen again? Enshitification is a real thing in the year of lord 2026. All of the biggest companies are trying to get blood out of every stone they can find. Have you seen the gaming industry? AAA developers and publishers are laying off everywhere since they are getting crushed by indie devs releasing actual good shit. MSFT is losing ground with Windows to Linux. People are getting tired of big tech and their enshitification of every product possible. People aren't saying blue chip investing is stupid, it's just not smart. Investing 101 is past performance doesn't represent the future and people are always looking to the future.

Fluffy-Discussion166

What other bull case for memory now? If the AAA earnings report still tanked the sector

FlyingDutch1988

It's comparable. Some smaller games start at a lower price, let's say 30 and I could sell them for 25. Here in the Netherlands we have a website called marketplace (marktplaats) which is fine for this type of buying and selling. There is always a small audience to find for it. I love to support indie game studios, those games come digital only. They are creative and are value for money. But these big AAA, only a few studio's like fromsoft get my money. Edit: I don't keep my games after finishing them, so I sell them 1 or 2 months after I bought them. I'm not the type to replay a game ever. So the buying isn’t owning isn’t a big deal to me, but it's unfair nonetheless btw.

kinetic_honda

Did that type of resale value stick for all games or just certain AAA titles?

TennesseeTennessee

They’re sold by the 100 because they’re supposed to be used to hedge long positions of large numbers actual shares. IE: I own 10000 shares of AAA stock that’s got some risky outlook I’m worried about, I spend the premium to buy put options that give me the right but not the obligation to sell at the strike price (below the current price) to limit my losses without having to actually sell my shares. Regards here pay the premium as a gamble without owning shares because of their volatility and that they allow them to collect the increases or decreases associated with large amounts of shares. The gamble is that shares don’t expire and very rarely go to zero in an afternoon. If you don’t sell or otherwise unwind your option position before the expiration date it’s worthless, they can also expose you to risk 1000x what you put in, if you sell naked options you may be obligated to buy 100+ shares of whatever you were gambling on.

Tay_Tay86

There are no earnings from AI and Datacenters All the companies making money off of chips and power... It's all debt. It's a giant bubble of debt on AAA company balance sheets

gotdome

TLDR: $2000 or less I give the below info for insight in case anyone is serious like I was about leaving. I knew I was for a while like the commenter… I really did NOT want to be living at my parents house in my 30s, I did see the financial advantage but it doesn’t outweigh the baggage I gotta deal with. US given my preference and resources was no longer a desired place to live, I have nothing really tying me down and everything was telling me to go. This is my 3rd time just traveling the globe since early 2025, and I have watched places like Japan and Thailand specifically get a little more expensive in certain areas—these are two countries I frequent, have friends in both immigrants and locals, and Japan I plan to move to/been self teaching language. I already got offered a job via networking in person, I’ll figure out something else when I need to work since right now I don’t. I’m in my 30s That said: my quality of life — I am low maintenance as I said I sold some of my prized materials like my car which I dumped money into working on for nearly a decade & everything else I owned—put stuff up on fb market place, grailed, you name it, just shooting photo and now video which is my hobby—that’s where all my money goes and that’s all I kept except sentimentals. If I need comfortable travel I’ll pay for it, I have a crap ton of miles and points from my previous career which took me many places so any tickets are usually paid for via $5-50 for the taxes and the rest is points and I can go anywhere. Went to like 13 countries last year for less than $1200 in taxes and idk how many points. Accommodations are private and usually have everything I need. I can eat pretty much whatever I want out or take out (no tipping is required in this part of the world but I still do it and it’s nothing compared to US). My medical care is outstanding, fast, convenient, and incredibly low, I hold a travelers policy that has everything I need for $70ish a month that’s extra with electronics usually it’s $50-60 for someone my age. All of this equates to maybe $2k a month max, and that’s a high month. I’m spending like $35ish on avg a night sometimes because low season in an area or it’s just cheap like in southern Thailand rn it’s maybe $18 a night and I have an entire bungalow in the middle of the rainforest comes with breakfast. Never spending more than $50/60 a night unless I’m in Tokyo depending on where sure. Mind you, all these prices are tourist pricing because I’m just traveling, not working, and can afford to offset those differences now. Living, Thailand like $500 a month in rent for a 1b1b in a high rise, Japan I have a friend there 10 years $500 a month never increased rent living well—you can still find steals, maybe not central Tokyo. I’m taking grabs (their uber or scooter) or I rent a scooter with AAA international permit $30 and ur driving anywhere pretty much or riding like in SEA that’s like $5-10 for gas for the week/$7-10 for the scooter. In Japan it’s train and it’s nothing/gets you everywhere. I only uber if it’s like 12-3 am and I don’t want to wait for the train. Vietnam is cheaper than all this. So is Indonesia. And Malaysia is also cheap in some areas — all weaker to USD in daily living and I can’t speak on Indonesia since I haven’t been there or The Philippines yet, but Malaysia / Vietnam also outstanding. That’s if you aren’t luxury accustomed in some regards, most can be accommodated though. Theres so much money in some of these places yet you can still have a decent quality of life on a below avg US salary. I have friends making like 50-70k in yen and that would be cutting it close in places like NY/LA, in TYO $70k is phenomenal living. So yeah, there’s no way I’m going back to US unless like my family desperately needed me. I’m building a life outside of it and can still invest to get back to topic — I learned to trade literally while traveling because it afforded me the time. I made mistakes, I love and hate WSB, but I achieved this short term financial freedom and I can potentially keep it going for a really long time. This is all personal and depends on how much money is enough for you I know what is enough for me.

NabotaMessUpMyFace

Then again, Kaylee Goncalves (sp?), one of the Idaho 4 victims of that murderous psychopath, Bryan Kohberger, just graduated and bought a Range Rover right before her death, with plans of starting her first post-college job in Austin, TX. I think at least part of why she was there in Idaho that weekend was to show off her new car, which obviously sucks, but I hope that she was at least over the moon happy and excited to drive that car for the short time she had it. When you think about it, life is so short that even a week of pure joy being the proud owner of a Ferrari or a Range Rover is worth something! Same thing with my dad…like, he died with some consumer debts that fortunately for me as his daughter, died with him. I’m GLAD he charged that expensive dental work, that top-tier AAA membership, and brand new Purple Mattress and sheets instead of paying cash, bc it’s not like he got to take it with him in the end. If it brought him just a little bit more peace and joy, it was worth it.

drtranmd

I hope they both go away. Between sony not supporting physical media and Microsoft going all in on the subscription model, "AAA" gaming is changing for the worse.

geekguy

Okay. I’m going to say it. It’s because the shows are too formulaic now. Excessive dialog. Episodes designed for binging instead of a story arc. Everything is a mini series. Over produced content with lack of substantive story telling. They need to invest more in independent media instead of buying rehashed content from studios. And well. If they want to get back to grass roots, maybe instead of feeding a bunch of garbage content get back to a rental type model. Give us credits each month to choose one of those more expensive AAA movies to watch or rent. Let us browse the catalog. Right now- there is not much market differentiators from other streaming platforms.

AliStarr182

You'd be surprised how many modern AAA games don't support unicode. I have a unicode star (☆) in my steam name which rendered as a box for the first few months of battlefield 6. I've seen it cause text rendering issues too.

VegetableResource204

Saying Microsoft can casually absorb a $100B capex hike without equity dilution misses the point. Forcing $100B onto the balance sheet completely destroys their AAA credit rating, halts their massive share buybacks, and the resulting rapid depreciation of short-lived GPUs directly craters their EPS. You can't just handwave away a massive hit to profitability by saying 'they won't dilute shares. I guess you didn't see what happened to ORCL. Regard

demaraje

Dumb example. There are verical LLM integratioms with a relatively thing layer on top. It's reselling repackaged LLM access. Let's see if those business models hold up with non-subsidized token costs. But in any case, these are not SaaS killers. They ARE SaaS, nust with stochastic instead of deterministic code. Give me the companies that built another MS office, Slack, Zoom, Youtube, Photoshop, Whatsapp. The ones that are rolling out AAA games every 2 months. Where are they? It's been 2 years

demaraje

That's not replacing, that is personalization. Not the same product. Which you will have to maintain. Which you will be bad at. Incidents will happen. Yo7 will pay for them. The theshold to make good software is still there. Only incompetent people think otherwise. That's why there are no vibecoded AAA games. No vibecoded Office suites. No vibcoded security software. I am holding 0 bags, I'm just compentent. I'm a ML engineer for a known company. I know what LLMs are good at and what they're not. This SaaS pocalipse is pure bullshit and the use case you mentioned doesn't apply. Most companies won't cheap out

Fluffy-Discussion166

Why Korean memories tanking..... MU earning is AAA. These Koreans are paper hand regards

Weak_Emu3659

That game is garbage but you heard about that development studio making a AAA RPG in the lord of the rings universe? they're the developer behind it, probably see the game in couple of years.

Bravadette

Baldurs Gate 3, Arc Raiders, and GTA6 (to be determined) are something beyond AAA

deepakfialok

My view: the post identifies real vulnerabilities in private credit, but it overstates the probability of a 2008-style systemic collapse and mixes strong points with shaky or unsupported claims. The better investor takeaway is not “panic,” but “assume stress is rising, underwriting dispersion is widening, and liquidity risk is real.” � What looks credible Several core themes are consistent with recent official and industry sources. The FSB says private credit has grown to roughly $1.5–$2 trillion by end-2024, that valuation can be discretionary, that leverage exists at multiple layers, that liquidity mismatches are a concern, and that retail participation is increasing in some structures. � The IMF also highlighted private credit as a rising risk area and the FSB notes that the market remains untested in a prolonged downturn. � What seems overstated The post blurs the line between “stress” and “systemic collapse.” The FSB explicitly says direct bank exposure to private credit funds is relatively small and that the main risk channels are opacity, interconnections, and spillovers rather than an immediate bank-failure cascade. � So the more likely base case is a painful credit-cycle unwind, not necessarily a 2008 replay. � Claims that need caution Some of the post’s numbers and labels are presented too confidently, especially around the true default rate, “synthetic PIKs,” frozen withdrawals, and exact maturity-wall figures. The FSB confirms that payment-in-kind structures and valuation opacity can mask stress, but it does not validate the more dramatic claims about hidden AAA packaging or a universal retail wipeout scenario. � Also, the post cites specific fund-level redemption events and indefinite gates as if they prove a system-wide freeze, but those are manager-specific issues unless corroborated across a broad set of vehicles. � Investor read on the setup For investors, the important distinction is between good private credit and the weaker parts of the market. Strong managers with disciplined underwriting, conservative leverage, low covenant-lite exposure, and limited liquidity promises can still be attractive; weak vintages, stretched borrowers, and retail-facing evergreen structures deserve much more skepticism. � The stress is real enough to justify caution, but not so uniform that all private credit should be treated as toxic. � Practical recommendations Reduce exposure to funds that promise daily or quarterly liquidity while holding illiquid underlying loans. � Favor managers that disclose vintage mix, leverage, covenant quality, PIK usage, and workout history. � Prefer senior secured, diversified, short-duration structures over aggressive, sponsor-heavy, or highly levered vehicles. � Avoid chasing headline yield without understanding how marks, side pockets, and gates work in stress. � Treat private credit as a diversification tool, not a substitute for liquid core fixed income. � My bottom line If I were advising an investor, I would say: keep private credit on the radar, but demand much higher diligence and lower expectations than the marketing suggests. The setup looks more like a late-cycle credit tightening with pockets of hidden fragility than an inevitable global crash.

OracleOmaha

One of the first lessons many SPAC investors learn is that partnerships can be announced easily. Actual institutional adoption is much harder. That's why the most compelling part of the Securitize story isn't tokenization itself. It's who has already chosen to work with them. When some of the largest financial institutions in the world evaluate infrastructure providers, they aren't making decisions based on marketing presentations or social media excitement. They perform extensive due diligence covering technology, compliance, operations, cybersecurity, regulatory frameworks, legal risk, and scalability. That is what makes Securitize's customer and partner list worth paying attention to. The most notable example is BlackRock. BlackRock selected Securitize as the infrastructure provider for BUIDL, its tokenized money market fund. BUIDL has grown into one of the largest tokenized funds in the market, with approximately $2.5B assets under management as of June 2026. Think about that for a moment. BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world. It had countless options available when deciding how to bring one of its first major tokenized products to market. The company chose Securitize. More importantly, BlackRock has since filed for a second tokenized fund using the same infrastructure. That is often a stronger signal than the original selection itself. Beyond BlackRock, the institutional ecosystem surrounding Securitize is significant. Names associated with the platform include: * Apollo * BNY Mellon * KKR * Hamilton Lane * VanEck * Morgan Stanley * Coinbase Ventures * Circle * Ripple These are organizations managing hundreds of billions, and in some cases trillions, of dollars in assets. Another development that caught my attention was New York Stock Exchange selectingSecuritize as its design partner and first broker-dealer connection for its tokenized equities initiative. The vision includes: * Tokenized securities * Near-instant settlement * Extended trading availability * More efficient market infrastructure Thisdemonstrates that tokenization is increasingly being discussed by institutions that traditionally define how capital markets operate. There's also another signal that deserves attention. Moody's assigned a AAA-mf rating to BlackRock's tokenized money market fund. That may sound technical, but it's important. Credit rating agencies are among the most conservative participants in finance. The fact that institutional-grade risk frameworks are now being applied to tokenized products suggests this market is moving beyond experimentation and into broader institutional evaluation. To me, the key takeaway isn't that tokenization is guaranteed to succeed. It's that some of the largest institutions in global finance are investing real resources, real capital, and real reputational risk into exploring it. And when those institutions needed infrastructure, many of them chose Securitize. *\*This post is for educational and informational purposes only. Some promotional materials and publicly available company information are discussed. This is not investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.*

Castlenock

I find this thread fascinating. Some people coming in here and saying that investing in Take Two is 'niche coverage'. GTA 6 which this stock currently hangs on, is estimated to have spent over 2 billion dollars to make. Piper Sandler released a report that they believe it will receive '46 million' sales on day one. Over the past year we have seen the stock spike or dip strictly based on delay fears or rumors of a trailer getting announced. The past 4 months have been crazy with this stock - during the 'when are they going to release a trailer' hype, the stock would jump at 9 a.m., 10 a.m. and 11 a.m., a.k.a. the times that Rockstar (company developing GTA6) traditionally would release links to their new trailer. Every time. Every time a rumor has happened this year with a date attached, the stock swings on those dates on those times. I've made some day trades even though they aren't my thing, based on these patterns. The price set for this game will absolutely set the price for AAA games going forward. If it's 80 USD, major games will retail at 80 USD. If it's 100 USD, major games will release at 100 USD. There is no other single entity that I know of in the entertainment space that will directly effect the gaming market. So what I find fascinating is that no people have mentioned the 3+ day rally is because after over a year of anticipation Rockstar announced that pre-orders will start on June 25th. It makes sense that the third trailer will come with that announcement. So it's one of the safest bets I've ever seen that the stock will go up leading to that announcement. How much of it is baked in with the current rally I don't know, how much the stock will continue to climb after the pop or dip after that announcement I have no idea... ... but to see all this talk about the stock and no one mentioning the start of presales with some investors estimating at 46 million sales on day one and a trailer that has dictated TTWO stock prices for a while now... all of that landing in two days.... but no mention on these facts in TTWO at this time? I would have thought that was all we would be talking about. Again, not saying the stock is going to hit 300+ on the 25th, but it is highly unlikely it'll be in the red by the time the trailer and pre-orders start in two days, and that is a very rare opportunity IMO.

qwembly

Just keep in mind that investors already know all of this. They've been waiting years and years for this release. The world expects this game to do insane numbers. Despite that, traditional games are in a downward trend since younger players are much more focused on roblox, meaning that the typical console gamer is older. So the player base is flat, and AAA games are considered a mature market, not a growing market. All that said, I personally expect retail to buy into ttwo, but I also expect it could fade after, as hype fades over the following months. Can GTA convince investors that gaming has returned to growth? I don't know about that. I think we'd need to see a shift in movement away from roblox in the teen demographic.

Mr60SPX

>Because private credit funds are using synthetic Payment-in-Kinds (PIKs), which simply means opening new Delayed Draw Term Loans ("DDTLs") to pay interest on the previous loan to make it seem like a good loan, so that it can be packaged into an AAA-rated CLOs and sold to pension funds as guaranteed income, when in reality the borrowers are missing their payments and defaulting if not for the DDTLs. Confidently incorrect lol. Ive never heard anyone in the industry use the term “synthetic Payment-in-Kinds.” Additionally, delayed draws are cash facilities. When you draw on a delayed draw, the borrower receives cash from the lender. PIKs are cashless. When a paydown or interest payment is PIKed it’s added to the existing loan balance. The lender does not give the borrower cash. You could borrow from your delayed draw to make your interest payment, but that is not a PIK, that is the delayed draw functioning like a delayed draw.

KimberlyK031

The fact that they are literally using Delayed-Draw Term Loans (DDTLs) to issue new debt just to pay off existing interest is peak 2007 behavior. It’s unironically the corporate version of taking out a new Mastercard to pay off your Visa bill, all while the internal 'mark-to-model' spreadsheet stamps it 'AAA'. When that $500B+ 'Maturity Wall' hits in 2027–2029 and these zombie SaaS companies can't refinance at 7%+, it’s going to be absolute chaos. Excellent write-up, OP. Can't wait for *The Big Short 2* where instead of housing, the main character is just staring at a dashboard of synthetic PIKs and depreciating GPUs. I'm ready to buy puts 3 years too early.

AshleyC031

The fact that they are literally using Delayed-Draw Term Loans (DDTLs) to pay off existing interest is peak 2007 behavior. It’s unironically the corporate version of taking out a new Mastercard to pay off your Visa bill, all while the rating agencies smile and stamp it 'AAA'. When the 'Maturity Wall' hits in 2027-2029 and these zombie SaaS companies can't refinance their software/GPU-backed debt at 7%+ rates, it’s going to be glorious chaos. Excellent write-up, OP. Can't wait for the movie *The Big Short 2: Electric Boogaloo* where Michael Burry is just staring at a dashboard of synthetic PIKs. I’m ready to lose money on puts 3 years too early.

Retro21

I can't believe the sdd - you're charging 1k and *starting* at 500gb?! What is that, four AAA games? (I mean, most of us don't have steam accounts to play AAA games but still)

crypto_kt

There’s a real point buried in here, but it’s currently wearing a trench coat made of Reddit doomerism. Private credit does have problems. It’s grown fast, it’s opaque, PIKs can hide stress, and quarterly liquidity on illiquid loans is the kind of “trust me bro” structure that usually ages like gas station sushi. But jumping from “private credit has risk” to “this is 2008 but worse” is a pretty heroic Olympic-level leap. 2008 wasn’t just bad loans in a trench coat. It was bad collateral wired directly into major banks, broker-dealers, short-term funding markets, repo, ratings agencies, household leverage, housing prices, and the actual plumbing of the financial system. When that cracked, the whole machine seized up. Private credit is uglier, slower, and more opaque, but a lot of the pain sits in locked-up funds, BDCs, insurers, pensions, and private vehicles. That means losses can absolutely happen. Redemptions can get gated. Marks can get revised. Investors can get wrecked. But that is not automatically the same thing as a bank-run-style systemic collapse. Also, PIKs are not some newly discovered alien technology. They are a stress signal, yes. They can absolutely kick the can. But “borrower is using PIK” does not automatically mean “AAA tranche is fake and society ends Thursday.” The more sober take is: Private credit is likely heading into a nasty credit cycle. Weak borrowers, overvalued software companies, covenant-lite loans, sketchy marks, and retail investors who thought “quarterly liquidity” meant actual liquidity are all legitimate concerns. But “dot-com plus 2008 plus AI apocalypse” is not analysis. That’s a financial crisis fan fiction trailer with bass boosted. Good warning. Bad conclusion.

crypto_kt

Relax. Private credit absolutely has real issues: rapid growth, opaque marks, PIK usage, refinancing pressure, and redemption gates. That part is not fake. The leap to “worse than 2008” is where the argument gets sloppy. Size alone does not make something another subprime crisis. 2008 was not just “bad loans got packaged.” It was bad mortgage collateral embedded across highly levered banks, broker-dealers, repo funding, off-balance-sheet vehicles, ratings failures, and household leverage tied to collapsing home prices. Private credit has opacity and weak spots, but a lot of the risk sits in locked-up funds, BDCs, insurers, pensions, and private vehicles where losses are slower, less runnable, and less directly tied to the core banking system. PIKs and synthetic PIKs are warning signs, not proof of total fraud. They can hide stress and inflate debt balances, but they are also part of how private lenders restructure weak borrowers before formal default. That means headline defaults may understate stress. It does not mean every AAA CLO is automatically fake. Same with redemption limits. A fund capping withdrawals is bad for investors who thought quarterly liquidity was real liquidity. But it is not the same as a bank run. These vehicles were built with gates because the underlying loans are illiquid. That is a liquidity mismatch problem, not automatic evidence of a payments-system crisis. The better thesis is: private credit is entering a painful credit cycle. The highest-risk zones are weaker managers, smaller borrowers, software-heavy books, PIK-heavy portfolios, and retail investors who misunderstood liquidity. That can cause losses, frozen redemptions, markdowns, and years of ugly restructurings. But “2008 plus dot-com combined” is not analysis. It is vibes with footnotes. ✌🏼