Reddit Posts
Soo , Russell .. what’s up man ? 🫨
Mother switched brokerage and gave me her mature rira in May... Tax free loss here we go!
Major Technical Levels on SPY QQQ IWM for 2024
Need advice about index option and option on future.
Someone close to me made an interesting bet against ES NQ IWM TSLA, the semiconductors, but is long on PSNY, China, oil, cereals, wheat pall
Everything I'm watching in premarket 27/12, Including my analysis on DXY, IWM and more.
Is it worth it to sell your now ITM options to buy OTM options?
So are we buying meme stocks again or what?
Expected Moves this Week - GDP, a low VIX, IWM and earnings from Nike, FedEx and Micron
Expected Moves this Week: SPX/SPY, QQQ, IWM, Broadcom, Docusign and more.
Are SPY and IWM the only stock with multiple expirations during a one week period?
My plan of trading until the end of the year SPY
24% profit, Day 1 of 30 - $1k to $1M challenge
Join me on my journey ... $1,000 to $1,000,000 ... I'll be documenting here. (Trade 1/30)
Join me on my journey ... $1,000 to $1,000,000 ... I'll be documenting here. (Trade 0/30)
Is this stupid?- Selling put on IWM getting assigned and then selling covered call?.
Pretty wild stats on market positioning - crash coming in the new year?
5K Daily Gain on AMD, IWM, META, PLTR, and QQQ
Shorts Once Again Concentrated in Hated Index/Sector
Funds were waiting for earnings to justify EOY rally. Taking bullish hedges.
Mid-Month Technical Analysis Review of SPY QQQ IWM
SPY 418p -- Evaluating value after experiencing loss.
Small Caps are now at a five year low, in nominal terms
Trade Journal & Technical Review of September + Look Ahead for October
Technical Analysis Snapshot so far of September 2023
Expected Moves this week, Oracle, Adobe, SPY, QQQ, IWM and more.
The Month Review: Technical Snapshots & Trade Journal for August 2023
The Month Review: Technical Snapshots & Trade Journal for August 2023
A mid-Month Review: Technical Snapshots & Trade Journal so far for August 2023
Butterflies & Iron Condors: Assignment Risk vs. Duration & Stock Selection
small cap/med cap stock that pay a consistent/decent dividends
Thoughts on IWM and $TNA - will small caps follow large caps?
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023
General Market Overview / Indexes Action (11th July)
Weekly Recap - Week ended Jun 9 2023 - Market rotation might be happening
Two Videos, Larry Williams: Inflation Peak Means big bull move and Carter Worth: Rotation Big to Small Cap
Market Recap - 6/7/23 - Bargain hunting
IWM Calls Grand Slam! 1717 9/15, 210 strike calls! Closed out at 1.05 and 1.10 (1.075 average), purchase price .25. Net proceeds $181,227.
Had to take it.. 256% in 4 days $IWM.. or should I have held?
We are just 8 SP500 points from official new Bull Market, Sentiment Indicators indicate we will go 10% higher.
Market Recap - 5/20/23 - everything is over bought
Wednesday morning brief from a Certified Market Technician 5/24 9:05am
Morning Brief from a Certified Market Technician 5/23/23 9:05 am EST
Market data subscriptions on Interactive Brokers
My top pair trade idea for this month: Russell 2000 vs Nasdaq using Options
Market Recap - 5/17/23 - the worst is behind us, maybe
Market Recap - 5/15/23 - everything is high risk if you're a pussy
Week Ended May 12 - Recap and thoughts for next week - tread carefully
Market Recap - 5/1/23 - 700 million dollars per AI
Key fib levels you want to watch for SPY,QQQ ,DIA, IWM
Tactical call option trade, small cap (IWM) 9/15 EXP 210 strike calls 687 contracts, 27 cents entry🔥
Tactical call option trade, small cap (IWM) 9/15 EXP 210 strike calls 687 contracts, 27 cents entry.
Russell 2000 index composition
Market Recap - 5/2/23 - a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises!
Mentions
Thanks for the detailed game plan. But why me? I've been selling cash covered puts and sipping some of the dip. AXP, BLK, and MSFT. Thinking about LVMUY/BAC/IWM too. Tried to sell SVXY puts but no one bit.
IWM was at -4% last night... NEGATIVE 4....
What outperform tomorrow QQQs or IWM?
I’m in on IWM 245p bought at close too, if the war is really over then look out every other county with oil or minerals and I guess we’ll just bomb and take what we want at this point
I’m in for IWM 245p, this feels weird to me(I’m a bull btw)
IWM up 5.5% off the overnight lows lmfaooooo
Not buying IWM calls is my biggest tegret
Guys, no bs, they are legit stealing from us. IWM $250 puts are only up 75% today. That's such bullshit. It's giving 2008 all over again.
There was like 1 million puts sold last week on IWM. I’m pretty sure this entire. Bullshit has been market makers to hedge that.
IWM 5dte puts have been printing every morning for me. Buy at end of day.
For the green by open crowd. Here is what Iran fucked up. Saudi Arabia Ras Tanura refinery Bahrain Sitra refinery complex, tanker damage UAE Fujairah oil storage terminal Qatar Ras Laffan LNG export complex Kuwait Fuel storage facilities Iraq Multiple oil production sites curtailed Oman Duqm fuel tank + tanker attacks And here is what we jacked up in Iran. Confirmed oil facilities hit inside Iran Reports indicate several refineries and storage depots around Tehran and other cities were struck: 1. Tondgouyan Oil Refinery (Shahr Rey, Tehran province) – one of Iran’s largest refineries, hit in airstrikes.  2. Shahran Oil Refinery / Shahran Oil Depot (Tehran) – major storage site for Tehran’s fuel reserves.  3. Oil storage facility in Karaj (Alborz province).  4. Another fuel storage complex in Tehran (separate site from Shahran).  5. Multiple oil storage facilities around Tehran – warplanes reportedly struck five facilities in one wave of attacks.  6. Abadan Refinery – one of the largest refineries in Iran, also reported damaged during the conflict.  Some of these are different tanks or depots within the same refinery complex, which is why counts vary depending on how analysts group them. So even if we make nice today and never speak of this again. Oil is gonna be over $100 a barrel for a while. If we don’t make nice and keep blowing it up and the strait stays closed we have not even begun to see how high it goes. BNO calls. Any strike/date IWM puts any strike/date.
I hope it doesn’t dump too much. I want to go all in on IWM puts. The oil shock will be catastrophic this time around
I think oil will keep rising. It’s probably a good idea to buy long dated $200 IWM puts or SPY 550 puts. I think we could have a big crash, bigger than liberation day.
IWM circuit breaker would be cinema.
Ah ur fucked IWM stocks will -15 to 20% this week lol.
They’ve massacred my boy IWM
You collect more premium with $1 wide, so if I sell 5 condors I usually get $.45 on average. So 5x that is $2.25. If you sell a $5 wide spread on SPY, you get the equivalent of $.38. There are many factors but you kinda get what I’m referring too. As far as assignment, you will only get assigned if your short CALL is ITM on the xdate, which is once a quarter. And you pretty much avoid having a position for that day. Besides if you get assigned, your max loss is credit-$1 so maybe $60. You’ll still have the short put on. Not a reason to avoid tradingSPY. And even with the tax benefits of SPX, you’ll be getting more premium from SPY which will offset the tax savings. I’ve done the math, everyone thinks differently, I just know what’s working for me. To summarize again, go 4dte, you can close the next day for a small profit and roll or put multiple days’ spreads on in a row. You’ll rarely lose and you’ll have plenty of time to adjust. Give yourself a lot of room, if you see the difference from going $8-$10 OTM vs $12, it’s Pennies for the extra breathing room. Avoid QQQ, it has the potential to move much more % wise intraday and after hours. I also trade IWM but the premium credits are not worth tying up the capital if you only have so much. DIA only has weekly options so if I trade DIA, I’ll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday. Btw, I guess from your username you play pickle? I grew up in St Pete but am in SFL now. 0-0-2 🎉
IWM is down 4%. Rcat achr onds ionq and other shitter stocks are -10%ing tomorrow lol
# Gemini said Your analysis is a textbook study of **market contagion** and **liquidity traps**. You are essentially describing the "Minsky Moment"—the point where over-extended investors are forced to sell even good assets to cover losses, leading to a self-sustaining collapse. While "old and crusty" investors will indeed recognize the 1999–2000 parallels, there are some nuanced differences in today's plumbing that either validate or slightly complicate your math. # 1. Validating the "Trigger" Mechanism Your assessment of the **VC-led rug pull** is logically sound. In venture capital, there is a phenomenon called "Flight to Quality." * **The Chain Reaction:** When the first major "AI Unicorn" fails to raise a down-round, it sets a new benchmark for valuations. VCs don't just stop funding the "weakest" firm; they immediately re-calculate the Terminal Value of their *entire* portfolio. * **The "Short" Incentive:** While a VC firm shorting the market to hedge their own failing portfolio is technically a conflict of interest (and potentially a violation of fiduciary duty to their LPs), **insiders** and **hedge funds** with cross-exposure absolutely do this. # 2. Comparing the "Burn" (2000 vs. 2026) You asked: *How long can fresh cash sustain the burn rate?* * **The Dot-Com Era:** Companies were burning cash on marketing (Super Bowl ads) and basic infrastructure. When the cash ran out, the value was zero. * **The AI Era:** Companies are burning cash on **Compute (GPUs)**. * *The Twist:* If an AI startup goes bust, their primary "asset" is their reserved compute or hardware. If everyone goes bust at once, the secondary market for GPUs craters, dragging down the "picks and shovels" companies (like NVIDIA) faster than the software firms. # 3. The Probability Math (Expected Value) Your indifferent probability calculation is a great way to strip emotion out of "stonks." EV=(Pgain×Rgain)+(Ploss×Rloss) Using your numbers: * If you need to beat a **3.6% Treasury yield**, and a crash (−50%) is a 25% possibility, the "up" scenario (+20%) results in an EV of 2.5%. * **Verdict:** You are mathematically correct to prefer Treasuries here. The "Risk Premium" (the extra return you get for taking the risk) is actually **negative** in your scenario (2.5%−3.6%=−1.1%). You aren't being paid to take the risk. # 4. Nuance: The "Big Tech" Firewall The biggest difference between now and 2000 is **Cash Flow**. * In 1999, many leaders were pre-profit. * In 2026, the "Big 7" are essentially sovereign-wealth-sized entities with massive buyback programs. **The Risk:** Even if Big Tech stays profitable, your scenario holds true because of **Multiple Compression**. If the market decides AI is a "bust," Microsoft's P/E ratio could drop from 35x to 15x, even if their earnings stay flat. That is where your −50% scenario lives. # Analysis of Your Positions * **Swiss Francs ($CHF):** A classic "flight to safety" currency. It de-correlates from the USD/Euro-centric tech collapse. * **Gold ETFs (IAU, SGOL):** If the Fed reacts to your "Scenario B" by printing money to save the banking system (again), gold is your hedge against the resulting debasement. * **Hedged Options (QQQ/IWM):** This is the smartest part of your play. By "setting a floor," you change your EV calculation because your Rloss is capped (e.g., instead of −50%, it's capped at the cost of the put premiums). # Summary Your scenario is highly plausible. The "AI Winter" usually follows an "AI Summer" not because the tech stops working, but because the **Return on Investment (ROI)** takes longer to manifest than the **Burn Rate** allows.
You think so? It's tough to tell with things like this, but Trump does tend to TACO. Problem is there is no guarantee Iran wants to stop. Trump can't easily TACO out this time. I wanted to sell SVXY puts but no one was buying. Also very busy with my own things this week, but bought some BLK and sold some IWM puts.
I completely adjusted all of my positions so I have SPY 3/10, 3/11, 3/16. IWM 3/11, DIA 3/13. About 15-20 on each. Rolled my short calls strike from around $696 to $689 and short puts from $673 to $662. Had to adjust more this week than previous weeks but still no losses. Recovery periods where the underlying will blow through your short calls are more likely than declines. I lost a lot last year on QQQ, just kept going up and I was mostly only trading credit spreads not condors. If you setup 3-5dte condors and expect to roll in a day or two even for small profits it will work almost always. Don’t hold until expiration, and don’t get greedy with 0-1dte options.
In your case I would bet on IWM with 100% certainty since you ain’t getting laid. IWM = I Will Mastur****
#TLDR --- **Ticker:** IWM, GLD **Direction:** Down **Prognosis:** Buy IWM 205P 09/18/26 **Social Skills:** Bankrupt **Probability of Getting Laid:** 0%
#TLDR --- Ticker: IWM Direction: Down Prognosis: Buy $205 Puts (Exp 09/18/26) Social Status: Puts on getting laid Strategy: Hedge virginity by lecturing sociology majors on macroeconomics
Why bro…. I mean tbh anything can happen Holding $5K on IWM puts for Monday strike $249 so any dip should be fine
If you don’t have oil calls and IWM puts Monday get lots of
I’m Canadian - watching it from Vancouver, BC. Also sitting at 20 IWM $249 puts for Monday lol 😆 hoping for a gap down Monday morning. Next strong support at $245. Just want to make some tendies :)
20 IWM puts $249 - Let’s get this bread
Me too soldier - IWM $249 (20 contracts lol 😂) see how it goes
Holding $249 IWM puts for Monday. Let’s get this bread
Man broke even, believe it or not I woke up a bit late, my google home did not wake me up so I broke even lol Holding 20 x $249 IWM puts for Monday now (hope we don’t get a Taco 🌮 during the weekend lol)
Held 20 x IWM puts $249 for Monday … Hope no Tacos 🌮 during the weekend lol 😂 Ride or Die. Let’s go
Both SPX and IWM broke through 100 SMA without much resistance. 200 SMA is next, watch for random announcements from this administration to prevent the markets from getting to that level. I'd try to add small positions for long term starting next week.
$IWM 6 bucks away from Nov 2021 levels lol
War is weighing on IWM today. 10 year yields fell after the disasterous jobs report today.
I have 3dte calls for IWM at $258. Should I sell now for a 60% loss, or wait until Wednesday for a 100% loss?
the IWM is the exact inverse of USO right now lol
Didnt trade whole week but I love beating IWM is taking. Drill some more bitch
To OP, hope you read this: Although I’m just some random dude on Reddit, I don’t want you to find this out by gambling and losing money. Butterfly’s are attractive for the low entry, high return potentials but there’s very little room for error especially with 0-1dte. I can confidently tell you that you will only lose long term trading Butterfly’s. You should consider credit spreads or ultimately iron condors. The probability of profit is exponentially greater and you can actually make money. I do this and am up over 500% ROI in the last month alone. I put on a QQQ condor yesterday for 3/18, $626/$585. 15 of those my max profit will be $645, Ill close them next week for at least 50% of that. I mostly trade SPY and IWM. Regardless, unless there’s a nuclear war, there’s a 90% chance I’ll make money.
Oil up, I'd expect today to be another rough day for the SPY and IWM
I am doing similar and getting excellent results but not using ORB. I am using EMAs. As you mentioned, simple strategy is the best. Glad to see others are testing same as me :) \- python code using **live data for entries** \- it is easy to backtest with static data and it is not much used to test more than a year data - You did well with 2 years days - you want to make money and out of the trading \- I am currently using live entries for long calls/puts and taking profits - **One trade a day** **- forward testing** \- I check the actual options prices on live data - fills are done immediately - people worry too much about slippage which is not a problem on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc \- I have also built a simple app to allow me to one click and enter trades when I watch the chart - **issue with your strategy and mine**, it brings excellent results but when trading manually, you have to select the strike + jump through a few confirmation screens before submitting the trade & take profit - so missing some price movements on the contracts \- **the consistency in these trades pays off massively** \- even for me when I started doing this with $300 again this year, taking $10 per contract (less than 10% take profit), I can easily reach $60,000 in 6 months \- I like the **3 trades a week**, this is what I do and **it reaches massive profits**. \- If you exclude days when there were earning of the mag 7 on previous days, you may get better results. These are known before and can easily be configured when live I am also software developer and the coding language does not matter. From massive did you get the data free? I was looking at polygon/massive and decided to just use the data from the broker
If you think IWM futures are doing well now wait until Kopsi opens at 7
QQQ ends flat, IWM pumps a little. The rules of max pain implemented
IWM $263c exp 3/10. hold for a better opportunity tomorrow or sell now and repurchase?
Call me crazy but I bought some IWM calls 3/10 exp
On Monday I bet this would happen to IWM and I got FUCKED!!!
Feels like a 0dte IWM afternoon
Update 3/5: I can’t seem to post a screenshot but so far in 4.5 weeks I am up 503% on condor returns. It’s been a combo of adding one side at a time and putting on the whole spread at once. With all the chop it’s been a really profitable strategy. I decided to place so further dated trades today while SPY is again around $680 and IWM when it gets to about $255. Cheers!
IWM puts at open so fucking free.
I ran strangle on IWM at 2:59 yesterday...everything will be flat today. Sorry guy's
Thanks for the future opportunity to short IWM I guess
I did not leave anything overnight but if it pumps I will full port IWM puts. There is no indication this is ending, and if energy stays elevated rate cuts will be impossible. IWM has the most downside.
CNBC: "With the ongoing war in Iran, we're looking for safe places to hide, like small caps, specifically popular Russell 2000 names, even more specific, IWM."
Just noticed the Russell is getting obliterated. Might swing to $IWM calls. Hmmmmm
maybe IWM calls was indeed a bad idea
IWM you glorious piece of shit . Drill!!!
A massive oil spike is bad for the following. IWM, airlines, transport especially trucking and shipping, just about every industrial. So yeah puts on all that stuff.
IWM getting smoked. Margins will be eviscerated by higher fuel costs.
crazy amount of IWM $257 puts for tomorrow. IWM has a 24.4 put to call ratio for tomorrow. Not sure if that's a good sign for my IWM puts or not lol
I chose to sell the call sides separately today on DIA IWM SPY. I will start adding some puts tomorrow throughout the day but not rolling anything down. My short strike are $496 DIA, $268 IWM, $696 SPY.
All cash right now. Been in and out of $SPY $QQQ $IWM and other options plays. I was in some China & $NVO recently but went cash. Planning to buy when $VIX goes over $25 this month
\- Index Only - 0DTE ($SPY, $QQQ, $IWM) \- Monthlies for Individuals \- Keep it Simple
buy IWM for the next two years for biggest returns
Why do I feel like the rugging is coming.. hard and fast tonight.. fuk My port is way too fucking green. IWM + SPY puts and MSTR short shares? I need to hedge my calls. What are the 🌈 buyin?
Man I was gonna lock in some IWM $265c but now I might just wait. Actually fuck it I’m gonna buy em tomorrow at open
Why is IWM up. Higher oil price going to kill these little companies and inflation staying up means a rate cut will get pushed back.
lol IWM, surrreee just normal price movement.
Did you by chance add any condors today? I went a little crazy and went in hardcore when DIA was $487, IWM $262, SPY $685, NVDA $180, almost perfectly in between ATHs and support levels.
IWM up 3% off the overnight lows is insanity
Come on IWM just fucking give up and go down and stay down!
Making a note to myself. IWM goes up when we attack the Middle East. Got it.
gold fucked me cuz i closed overnight instead of waiting for this dump IWM somehow green, going to sell covered calls on this turd, again.
I have IWM spreads expiring today that break even at 263, got to watch the entire spectrum of up 5-6% Friday to down 90% at open today back to near even as we speak 😂
if IWM ends up green today I am done trading
3/2/26 - On a day like today, I’d absolutely setup some condors or credit spreads 30-45 days out. I had already added some 3/20 $701/$661 condors last week when SPY was $680. Plenty of room on both sides. I will also likely add just the put credit side on DIA and IWM if we get a nice move down.
Congratulations. These will print. I also wanted to load puts but the premiums are too much elevated. So, I picked IWM puts instead
Based on the level of regard in here, I know my puts on IWM are safe
I did add a lot of DIA call credit spreads when it hit $495 Thursday morning for 3/6. And then sold some $484/$483 puts Friday afternoon for a small credit to hold over the weekend. Same with IWM but only since they ran up.
I find spy is so safe with less volatility but somehow feeling better when I diversify all three qqq spy and IWM each time. do you usually close your trades if all goes right on the direction within the next one or two trading days?
Yesterday I added the 3/4 QQQ $620/$621 $590/$589 spread for $.28. That’s about average for QQQ $15 OTM. For SPY I can get $.45+ $15 OTM so I will generally trade SPY. IWM $10 OTM is usually $.20.
I sell puts (CSP) but -0.014 delta is usually pretty safe on QQQ, SPY, IWM. Just to give idea, for QQQ -0.014 delta strikes are 565, 560, 550, 540 from 3rd to 6th of March. I usually roll max $450k to $480k tied up to option every week only to make $2400 - $3200 a month. When DTEs expire, I do next days -0.014 strikes so it keeps rolling utilizing more cash entire week. It is stressful and risky for sure and I don’t like my method.
Thanks again. This makes sense and very manageable at these ranges. I will give it a test on paper and see my outcome this week. For sure not an ideal week to test with ongoing war but worth to test and experience that. I am total noob on options at moment. All I do is every Friday I sell 2 puts for next tue, wed, thu, fri at -0.014 delta on Think or swim for QQQ, SPY and IWM and keep repeating this in parallel again Monday to Friday with 2 puts at -0.014 delta -and targeting like $600 - $800 a week rolling the money. Tho for that amount of money, stress and daily effort, I have a feeling I can make similar money just from dividend stocks with less risk. Needed a different options approach than mine🙏
So my 3/3 250 puts on IWM may print? Close the Hormel Strait! I do love their chili though 😮💨
Ideally when we are in a defined trading channel which is where we are now with SPY/IWM/DIA.
Just wait for the straights of Hormuz to be mined, USO up, IWM down