Reddit Posts
$KO outperforms half of the Mag 7 in 2024 because of $NVO and $LLY
2023-05-01 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Bob Ross
2023-04-13 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Cookie Monster
2023-04-10 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Edna Mode
Applied Materials lead chips higher as sector reacts to bank backstops (AMAT)
Expected Moves: The CPI. Plus, Earnings from Palantir, Shopify, Cisco, AMAT and more.
Help! AMAT / LRCX / KLAC- Which are good for the long term?
2022-11-08 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
It is insane that Americans aren't looking for bargain bucket European stocks right now
Risky Strategy: Selling and Re-Purchasing to Reduce Cost Basis During a Crash
Big week coming here are my positions and thoughts
How did you originally pick your longest held and/or best positions? What did you learn from those picks?
Lost approximately $250k going back to January 11th . . . Starting the "slow slog" upwards (I think)
7 tech stocks that are most worthy of "cheap": Micron's forward price-earnings ratio is only 5.8 times
Need help on understanding option price and sudden increase in premiums pre-earnings
Sooo when are you thanking me ??? $AMAT is paying fat 💰
Should I do Friday account check before & after ?🤑💰 $BBWI / $KSS / $PANW / $AMAT
Earnings for the Week of May 16, 2022
S&P 500 had a neutral day overall, except TSLA and AMAT
Looking for some sound, sane advice for these troubling times.
160 AMAT Puts Expiring Friday. I want to buy calls because I think it will go up so obviously that means it will go down.
Consistent loses for a year straight. Then, doubled 17k from a loan overnight from random shitty pharmaceutical company, VRPX. My family thinks I’m a genius, y’all know I’m a lucky degenerate retard. Currently YOLO’d 160 AMAT puts expiring Friday.
$ICHR Holdings, Ltd. How Innovative Acquisitions Created an Industry Leader
The week ahead (Semis and CyberSecurity)
The week ahead [NVDA/AMAT/SNPS]; [PANW/CRWD/ZS]
A couple of pairs worth watching [AMAT/SNPS; PANW/CRWD/ZS]
Why I think people are sleeping on semiconductor tooling manufacturers.
Which semiconductors company has best long term growth potential?
Looking for "Chip Shortage" buys? Here are the companies that make the things that make the chips! ASML , AMAT , LRCX , KLAC
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, 70-100% upside potential in 3-6 months. The sentiment has been changed to bullish this week, a GREAT TIME TO BUY.
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, and has 60-100% upside potential in 3-6 months. (The sentiment has been changed to bullish this week, a GREAT TIME TO BUY).
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, 60-100% in 6 months (Sentiment turned to bullish this week, TIME TO BUY)
Applied Materials ($AMAT) – The Conductor Of The Tendies Train
Applied Materials Inc. ( $AMAT ) Earnings Thread — BULLISH
Applied Materials Inc. ( $AMAT ) Earnings Thread — VERY BULLISH!
Tickers with the most optimistic / pessimistic sentiment in this weekend's news coverage:
Why do TSMC and ASML have such low institutional ownership?
Why Goldman Sachs thinks these 32 stocks are very attractive
What is the best Semiconductor stock right now?
Top 2-3 Semiconductor companies among AMD, AMAT, TSM, MU, XLNX?
US Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
LRCX is the semiconductor play for 2021-2022
$AMAT DD and why semi-conductor stocks are a great play right now
$AMAT DD and why semi-conductor stocks are a great play right now
The global chip shortage and how I'll be taking advantage of the semi's dip: NVDA, AMD, AMAT, TSM
5 Possible Options Plays Now That Inflation Woes Are Being Priced In
Got an article on my phone today about a new ETF, QQQA. Any initial thoughts on this?
Expected moves this week. SPY, HD, TGT, AMAT, TSLA, RIOT
Mentions
I've owned AMAT since 2015, it was one of the first stocks I ever bought, so its actually led to me missing out on a lot of other semiconductor gains because I didn't want to be all in on only semiconductors :(
I'd been looking at AMAT, ASML, MU, Tokyo Electron, and KLA on Thursday. I didn't pull the trigger. I wanted to cry on Friday...
My AMAT shares once again carrying me 📈
Back in 2000, AMAT, KLAC, etc., were considered unstoppable FWIW.
LRCX is interesting, but I think the price is too stretched. I have nothing againstChina exposure through Chinese stocks, but I'm a little more wary about American companies with heavy China exposure due to the current geopolitical climate. I also hold its competitor AMAT which has had a nice run-up and I'm considering taking profits.
I own RKT and AMAT. WTF happened today? LOL. I check after work and both are up 7 to 9 percent. This is the biggest bubble ever.
This is fucking nuts so I took profits today. Sold 300 shares of LRCX, sold all 60 AMAT shares, sold another 1/4 of my MU shares.
Buying MU, SNDK, WDC, STX, LRCX and AMAT tomorrow
TSM and AMAT be eating good this week ✌️
Get those chips! I have a little semi etf going in my port: MU ASML AMAT NVDA AMD QCOM TSM MPWR AND... CAT - not a semi but I'm bullish
Smart profit-taking discipline. The data actually validates your think tank approach, here's what I pulled: **CHIPS Act → Semiconductor Equipment (policy lag: ~18 months)** CHIPS Act signed Aug 2022. Here's what happened to the equipment makers: | Stock | At CHIPS Signing (Aug 2022) | Now | Return | |:------|:----------------------------|:----|:-------| | ASML | $541 | $1,164 | +115% | | LRCX | ~$42 | $171 | +307% | | KLAC | ~$377 | $1,215 | +222% | | AMAT | ~$97 | $257 | +165% | The thesis was in think tank papers 12-18 months before the Act passed. **Your antimony call - MP Materials:** | Date | MP Price | Event | |:-----|:---------|:------| | Jan 2025 | $16 | Pre-restriction | | Oct 10, 2025 | $78 | China restriction news | | Oct 14, 2025 | **$99** | +40% in 4 days | | Now | $55 | Cooled but +245% from Jan | You caught this from CSIS before the restriction hit. That's the edge. **The pattern in numbers:** - Think tank vulnerability report → 12-18 months → policy/event → 100-300% moves - Your approach of "follow the rabbit holes" is basically impossible to systematize because the edge IS the curiosity The only semi-systematic version: RSS alerts on think tank testimony to Congress. That's when ideas become policy momentum. What's the current CSIS rabbit hole you're watching?
Are we looking at the same market? Every AI build out hardware equip supplier is like +5-+9% here? AMAT, ASML, KLAC, ONTO, etc
Semiconductor plays. AMAT and ACLS.
Short take on the market angle: Linking “US hits Venezuela → China immediately invades Taiwan → advanced chips vanish overnight” feels like an overfitted chain. Whether Beijing moves on Taiwan depends on capabilities and deterrence in the region, not one event elsewhere. Market-relevant points: * Chip risk exists, but ASML kill-switches and a TSMC “scorched earth” scenario are tail risks with heavy political/economic constraints. * Even with escalation, zero supply is unlikely; the U.S., Japan, and SK are expanding capacity. Arizona TSMC helps but can’t backstop leading-edge demand alone. * Exposure matters: handset/AI leaders (AAPL, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, etc.) carry higher near-term headline risk; mature-node heavy or diversified fabs are more resilient; equipment/material names (ASML, AMAT, LRCX) will swing with capex/policy. * Practically, this raises geopolitical risk premia and volatility rather than sending us into a “tech stone age.” Bottom line: take the risk seriously, but don’t price in an immediate Taiwan invasion off today’s Venezuela headlines. Focus on supply-chain mapping, alternative capacity timelines, and how drills/sanctions change volatility.
Bull Case AMAT is a picks-and-shovels play on AI. The thesis is that DRAM, leading-edge foundry, and advanced packaging create a multi-year equipment spending tailwind. UBS calls it a memory "super-cycle" driven by AI server demand for high-bandwidth memory. TD Cowen models 17% growth in non-China DRAM equipment spending in 2026. The China overhang is largely known—revenue from China already dropped from 37% to 30% of sales [TS2](https://ts2.tech/en/applied-materials-amat-stock-jumps-on-fresh-analyst-upgrades-jefferies-lifts-target-to-360-as-ai-chip-spending-shapes-2026-outlook/) , and the $600M export control hit is guided. Analysts are bullish: targets range from $285 (UBS) to $360 (Jefferies). Bear Case Valuation. The stock is up ~60% YTD and near 52-week highs. Even bulls frame it as "AMAT wins if the 2026 upcycle is real and broad" rather than "AMAT is cheap." [TS2](https://ts2.tech/en/applied-materials-amat-news-and-2026-outlook-on-dec-25-2025-record-fy2025-china-export-curbs-dividend-and-wall-street-forecasts/) If AI capex cools or the equipment cycle disappoints, there's real downside. It's a cyclical, high-beta name that moves fast in both directions.
Which stock would you rather buy and hold for the long run: $LRCX or $AMAT?
While, I can't offer a professional advice, I can tell you what I am doing. Before I invest in any individual stock, I look into numbers. I check revenue, net and operating income,operaring margin, expenses, cash&debt, shares outstanding, free cashflow and more. If I like what I see, I put the company in my watchlist. Then every month I invest in a company from that watchlist where I see disconnection between price and fundamental metrics. I don't look into stories, they are usually short term noise. In the beginning of the year I invested in Google, AMAT, ASML, AMZN. In the last few months I bought more AMZN, SPGI, META, NFLX, MA. I am planning to hold for many years. If you want to see the way I make my research, you can check it in r/stockpickeranalysis. I am posting a lot there. I hope this helps. 10k is not that much money. This loss is something you can learn from. In 10 years you might be thankful for it. Good luck!
Balls deep on AMAT.
Morgan Stanley's top picks for 2026: • NVDA - still the highest ROI in AI compute. Vera Rubin ramps in 2H26, delivering a step-change vs Blackwell. Faster, denser, more profitable. This is infrastructure, not a trade. • AVGO - the cleanest way to play custom silicon and AI networking. ASICs don’t replace Nvidia - they expand Broadcom’s lane. Supporting pillars: • ALAB - hyperscale AI needs connectivity. Smaller cap, direct leverage to data-center buildouts. • MU - HBM stays tight, pricing power holds, memory matters more as AI scales. • AMAT + TSM - no advanced chips without tools and fabs. Capacity = leverage. • NXPI + ADI - the quiet winners as AI demand moves from servers into the real economy. I know MU trades at a lower multiple because they are cyclical, but their forward PE is under 9. Their last ER was simply amazing and blew away all expectations.
LRCX and AMAT as memory companies increase CapEx. TXN and ON as industrial onshoring picks up. NOW as enterprise IT spend gets focused and they prove to not be an AI loser. RKT as mortgage rates drop. And my dark horse… ADP as employment picks up and people realize no one is vibe coding a global payroll platform.
AMAT is above 250$ are you saying it will not move at all in 2026
AMAT and LRCX are the picks-and-shovels play on memory CapEx. Smart approach - you win regardless of which memory producer comes out on top. \+2% YoY estimate does seem low if this cycle has legs. Equipment suppliers always get underestimated early in the buildout.
I am playing memory through increasing CapEx. I own AMAT and LRCX. Consensus rev growth on AMAT alone is criminally low (seen GS has them at +2% YoY). This cycle will not be different. Memory producers will “lock in” long term supply agreements and then expand capacity on existing lines before adding more greenfield supply.
Yeah that staged black swan vibe with no human casualties. My dad is an Exec with a Goldman advisor who said to sell LAM and AMAT in 2021 for that very risk. It cost him a million dollars in gains. Seems like they pumping to exit now.
Hi why did you unload AMAT, do you think its worth buying AMAT shares at this point, do you think think share price will continue to do well next 6 months?
Whole thing balances on TSM/ASML. Could see argument for AMAT argument but that’s the easiest of the 3 to get around. NVidia will come to earth somewhat. Intel has resorted to lobbying as they have had poor fabs and architecture for years and added to that with a poor response to issues recently. AMD of the 3 has the most room to run. Most of the GPU/AI architecture advantage is gone already it’s just current software is designed with CUDA in mind rather than AMD/others. Performance to watt with die size in mind on gaming (which takes AMD more seriously) already has them near even. AMD has had a huge advantage in defect rate on the CPU side due to chiplets and will almost for sure be the first to do it on the GPU/AI side. With limited foundry availability and defect parts not being comped, this is the next major step. If I was betting, ASML long, TSM long, AMD long. Uranium for power delivery as transistors are already a dozen or less atoms wide. Whoever can leverage MIT’s research into more efficient TEG’s as well which should go a good ways towards power recovery. Industry is going to be linked to energy for at least a decade now. The whole sector lost its luster a bit for me though with AI. The back turning on consumer facing products is lame (well outside AMD anyway). AMD gained data center CPU ground by hitting consumers first and proving their architectures advantages. They’re slowly doing the same with GPU’s now.
not me checking to see how much i missed out on AMAT by buying 100 shares at 160 and selling at 210 thinking im buffet
AVGO will do exactly what AMAT did, beat earnings, open low followed by analysts upgrades and then it melting up
For starters, maybe you should sell your ABAT for AMAT
lol, start by drawing charts of the right ticker, that's ABAT not AMAT.
This deserves full port 0DTE in AMAT. Do it OP, do it!
AMAT is applied material, great company
# says he invested in AMAT post a chart of ABAT lmaooo
During the over done tariff bullshit in April, I bought more AMD, MRVL, NVDA, PLTR, AMAT, PANW. So far so good, however, I think I will be unloading some long term holdings in early 2026. I just think Trump will once again do something ridiculous to cause a 10-15% decline. Pre-planned volatility to help the 1%ers cash in even more. Hey, small fry like us, could do the same one much smaller scale, provided you have cash on the sidelines.
LRCX, TSM, AMAT, KLAC If you know, you know
AMAT IS 35%. LRCX is 43%. They all have high exposure. Plus their systems are more advanced for data center chips, more likely to have issues with exports. ACLS is ICAPS equipment.
Every semi cap player has China exposure. AMAT probably has the least but it’s still close to 35% of sales. ACLS at 46% is comparable to LRCX. Also ACLS is an ICAPS play, no leading edge. I don’t think they have an issue filling China orders.
Semi equipment plays are the new NVDA. ACLS, AMAT and LRCX. Let’s go.
Google, Intel and AMAT have all pretty much doubled for me this year.
If you want to get ahead of this… AMAT, LRCX, ASML (in that order) Once the memory players lock up long term agreements they will then announce higher CapEx budgets and WFE (wafer fabrication equipment) spend goes brrrr.
ABBV AMAT CSU GD GOOG H IAG IPCO RY XOM VIDY Just kinda picked whatever looked okay. 33-33-33.
I thought it would bounce too but not this soon, similar to AMAT earnings, was planning on buying more but happy with my current holdings
Same, I have AMAT and I do wonder how much more upside is left
Not sure how much longer I can hold ASML and AMAT, geez those are nice gainers
AMAT keeps climbing in down and up markets. Semi equipment leader.
I had a pretty good day. AMAT up. NKE up. PMT up. Holding all.
AMAT leading. Still undervalued.
AMAT. ACLS. undervalued semi equipment plays.
His NVDA AAPL CRM LRCS AMAT NFLX PLTR MNST TSLA buy calls (and a hundred more) are names that have been best of the indexes for decades, delivering triple digit gains. A vanilla index fund can’t do that.
How many positions are you carrying in your port? At what rate are you taking losses? Two of those stocks $SND and $AMAT recently achieved 52-week highs.
AMAT 52 week high and still has the lowest PE of any semi cap equipment company.
AMAT upgraded by UBS today on improving WFE DRAM foundry spend in coming quarters. It’s been a relative under-performer.
AMAT upgraded to buy by UBS on string DRAM WFE demand. More room to run based on its relative YTD under performance.
AMAT. UBS upgrade to strong buy based on demand for DRAM WFE equipment. Up over 3% today. Been a semi under performer past year. Catch up bounce could be big.
What? 😂 I was a fucking investing noob in 2015 and I bought AMAT as one of my first stocks because everything but my ass was getting a chip put onto it. People who get paid to do this all day shouldve been heavy on Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks instead of trying to just manage money like buffet does.
Semis are going to run tomorrow. Go SOXX. go AMAT.
They’ve never needed Nvidia chips Gemini 1.0 was trained with TPUs Broadcom still benefits from TPUs though. Same for TSMC, MU, AMAT, etc.
AMAT hanging in there post earnings and Argus raised target price to $260. Morningstar also raised PT.
AMAT, MDB, NFLX, GS, ASML. short LULU puts need a rally.
That's the only event I could find, but I wouldn't have expected it to boost AMAT and take down LRCX...
AMAT back up to where it closed yesterday. Up $20. This is fkn CRAZY.
Was up 200% on my AMAT puts just for them to go red. Sell when you’re up. SMH
Jesus AMAT might drop below $200 today
This AMAT dump needs to be studied cause wtffff
Kashkari saying he wasnt sold on a rate cut in December. That and AMAT shit the bed
DIS puts into AMAT puts, what a week
Do you think my 50k on AMAT calls are cooked ? Its gonna expire today
The market wasn't pricing LRCX, TSM, AMAT to only 2x in 5 years lol
There is no AI bubble. I work for a major VAR and it’s all anyone is talking about. We (the engineers) are all using it daily for our jobs. Almost all of my colleagues have side projects we are working on trying to figure out what kind of crazy shit we can do with it. Our customers bring it up in every meeting. The manufacturers are all scrambling to integrate these solutions into their products. Some of them are going to be successful and will leap frog their competitors. Data center capacity is growing at insane rates. The amount of power it takes to power one rack is going to exceed what we used to spec for an entire data center. It’s going to be volatile for companies like mine and for the manufacturers and for the software companies. Chip demand will ebb and flow a bit but it isn’t going to come crashing down. LRCX, TSM, AMAT are the safest long term plays. They will pull back at some point here but are going to 2x from today’s highs in 5 years. NVDA and AMD will be much more volatile. Every major pullback is a buying opportunity. tl;dr All the news from the past few weeks is to scare you into selling before the next run to ATH’s.
Good thing I didn't do earnings for today or I would've went for AMAT and RCAT like some of you told me to do haha.
$AMAT Earnings: Q4 2025 https://preview.redd.it/z1yg6ek1641g1.jpeg?width=1173&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e69e47d0dc6e563f8bd913d17011e13c695efa8
AMAT needs to be dead by morning or IV is gonna crush my nuts
AMAT is a great buy. Reasonable PE for a tech company. Good growth. Even pays a divvy.
Listening to the AMAT conference call and it’s all so good; what the actual fuck is this fuckery 🙃
AMAT can definitely 205 at the least. 200 would be beautiful
AMAT $210 tomorrow morning
Is AMAT really gonna fuck both sides without a condom?
here comes the AMAT IV crush
figures AMAT is gonna be flat
AMAT flat, unless the first move is fake
Anyone wanna full port into AMAT earnings before close with me?
tell it to me straight doc, $AMAT calls or puts?
Think AMAT blows away earnings because of chip spending but mostly priced in. Think it trades flat.
$AMAT calls or puts ? and why pls?
$AMAT calls or puts? and why pls?
Today: - Calls A: NU AMAT - Calls B: EVLV TSSI STUB TMC ETHZ SRRK - Puts: BZH GLOB
AMAT puts seem to easy
I am fullport AMAT puts for earnings. Already up 60% today; strikes of 210 and 212.5. Sell or hold?