AMAT

davidbigham

oh boy, today gonna be bad for ASML AMAT LRCX .

wilhelm96

All the equipment makers did. AMAT and LRCX too

Appropriate_Ice_7507

My MU 1000c went to shit. Hospital bills are piling up. Bought 550c for AMAT bitches.

visionarymind

Wow, AMAT🇺🇸💾 Fair Value™️ was reduced from $460 to $415 over since checking several sources last Wednesday …tinfoil crown might be on too tight rn, but perhaps this🇨🇳🅰️ℹ️ model is really breaking things I was going to buy @ $485 but now I think I’ll look for something else to swing

Waiting4Reccession

I've been hearing that semiconductors are cyclical since AMAT broke $100 a share a few years ago though.

DJ-LIQUID-LUCK

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it. I think your comment on their business culture is very meaningful. I have an acquaintance that's been an engineer at Marvell for decades and I asked him if he would invest in AMAT, and he enthusiastically said yes. I also really like how they're trimming/eliminating smaller divisions of their operations to focus on their highest revenue segments. I'm trying to pick a single stock that provides meaningful alpha while been positioned to remain a major player for 10 plus years, and I'm feeling pretty good about going with AMAT

NonStopGravyTrain

40% of my portfolio has been in wafer fab equipment for the last couple years so I watch it like a hawk and spend a good deal of time researching it. After ASML, AMAT would be my second choice for a sleep well at night WFE stock. They're super diversified with their hands in just about every step of the fab and management has a strong buy back track record which can help protect EPS in the inevitable cycle down turns. That's being said, if I could only pick one it wouldn't be them because I value total return potential more than stability.

gizamo

I agree with your summary, but I haven't done any analysis on them recently. They have a ton of divisions and markets that I just don't keep track of, so I honestly don't think I have a very informed opinion. That said, I consulted with them ages ago, and I really liked their work culture. When consulting with companies, I can often tell the good companies from the utter shitshows, and AMAT was definitely the former. Good people, good work ethics, strong collaboration, great processes and docs, that sort of thing.

DJ-LIQUID-LUCK

What's your opinion on AMAT as a long term hold (10-15 years)? It seems like with their critical role in semi fab equipment and investment in R&D, their place in the tech innovation landscape is relatively irreplaceable. Happy to hear/consider any counter arguments

AJ_Grey

AMAT not looking good here.

Juidawg

Looking super fucked out there boys, looks like more meat and blood for bears honestly. I like AMAT down into 500, MRVL into 165, INTEL 88

Sad_Star9007

Problem is how you define loss vs what feels like shit. Did you lose $58/share when you exited AMAT early? If you'd let it run to 700, then sold after pullback to 650, is it a loss? Ofc I have positions that are still profitable, but took big haircuts today. Technical loss no, but still feels like shit. Also, don't be a douche.

visionarymind

I sold 50 shares of AMAT @ $642.50 & then it ran above $700 I seldom top tick I also seldom lose money because I have defined exits & consistently lock in profits You’re welcome 😌

Inevitable_Zebra_0

It's a normal healthy correction. It happens when valuations tend to get way ahead of themselves. We saw the same thing with covid plays in 2020-2022 - very promising companies in the age of remote work and stuff, until they suddenly weren't. Narratives tend to shift with time, and there's no such thing as an endless shortage. That's kinda the purpose of the market economy - to fix supply and demand mismatches. This is a period when the world suddenly needs more semis than are being produced, a couple of years will go by, this will rapidly normalize as the new supply enters the market. Which is the reason semis are cyclical, this happens over and over and over in history, you just have to zoom out to 10+ year period. If you were expecting parabolic rise until the end of times, that wasn't gonna happen anyway, that's not how it works with trends and shortages. By the way, I wouldn't expect the correction to finish right away, the valuations for many of these semi plays still have a lot of room to cool down - LRCX forward PE is 43, AMAT's is 37, ASML's is 49, AMD's 75, ARM's ridiculous 126 and price to sales of 60.

davidbigham

ASML AMAT green tho .

tickerspark

Yet ASML, AMAT, and other upstream companies are either unmoved or down. And everyone downstream is also down. If the market were rational, there would, at worst, simply be a rotation equivalent to the difference in expected capex, which itself is actually rather small.  Instead, semis have dumped a few hundred billion overnight. This is a buying opportunity in a lot of places.

visionarymind

!banbet AMAT $585 9d

Far_Feature2702

TSM and AMAT going to the moon is the only going to save me now.

Jinhe0529

I rotated MU to AMAT, am I cooked?

Jinhe0529

I rotate MU to AMAT. Am I cooked?

chauhan_shubham

I wanted to play AMAT(Applied Materials) earnings and bought APLD(Applied Digital) instead. Happens atleast once with every degen.

Spac55

$IBM market cap now 200 Billion. What a bargain Still $IBM has higher revenue compared to to $CSCO $AMD $AMAT $SNDK $PLTR $IBM pushing AI & Quantum, spending is common and make Tax write up, instead of paying Tax, spend for growth. $META $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN all did that. Options Algo drama last 2 days Fact check, IBM numbers not bad https://preview.redd.it/d0sikzjtufdh1.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=de73b982d663586500a82e8e87cd914d34495966

Midpoint60

hmmm -- MU, AMAT, DELL, CSCO, GEV I think this part of my port has explosive diarrhea.

StoneAlphaMarkets

Interesting. But what if I told you it has actually been the weaker performer from industry peers? The longer-term market-cap comparison is interesting. Indexed to **100 from June 2021**: * **ASML:** 263.4, \~ **+163%** * **AMAT:** 428.5, \~ **+328%** * **LRCX:** 533.3, \~ **+431%** * **KLAC:** 531.4 \~ +$430% (Error showing on platform so approx) ASML is still the largest company of the group at around **$685B**, versus approximately **$409B for LRCX, $396B for AMAT and $280B for KLAC**. But since June 2021, its market cap has grown much more slowly. I am not saying that this makes the results weak.... i.e Revenue, margins, installed-base sales and guidance all exceeded expectations. But, it does seem, however, that a substantial amount of ASML’s technological dominance was already reflected in its valuation several years ago. The real question is therefore not whether ASML is an exceptional company. we already know it clearly is. The question is whether today’s valuation offers better forward returns than the broader semiconductor-equipment companies that have already compounded at two to three times ASML’s rate over the same period.

oracasareop

I would disagree. ASML has been lagging just about all major equipment makers in terms om stock performance this year as they up until this point have guided 10-15% lower growth than its peers. This growth is now much more in line with other companies such as AMAT, LAM, Tokyo electron and KLA who have all vastly outperformed ASML. Now that it turns out that ASML will match or even surpass the growth of some of these other companies who have been ripping twice as much as Asml for the last 6 months it will be very interesting to see how the stock behaves in the next couple of weeks.

Spac55

$IBM still make big revenue than any hyped stocks. $IBM market cap now 200 Billion. Still $IBM has higher revenue compared to to $CSCO $AMD $AMAT $SNDK $PLTR $IBM pushing AI \& Quantum, spending is common and make Tax write up, instead of paying Tax, spend for growth. $META $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN all did that. Options Algo Scam IBM today

Happy-Champion1661

I sold UNH calls at 80% loss a week before Buffet announcement. They went +3,500% I held AMAT calls for 2months. I sold 1 week before expiration at 95% loss. They went 300x in one week, I wish I was joking. the worst one will always be MU tho, lost the entire gambling account after full porting averaging down calls in Feburary this year at 400ish. It just didn't go back up fast enough. Learned my lesson lol

GenevaMin

I have bought so many AI hype stocks in April/May. But I couldn’t hold it. Including AXTI LITE MRVL COHR AEHR ANET AMAT ALAB AMD and decided I shouldn’t buy stocks, I should buy ETFs instead

K1TTYST0MP3R

I'm on sites with AMAT everywhere I go with Jacobs and AMTS, doesn't change the fact that 42 isn't a competitive edge, they got floated to hedge against the ever looming annexation of Taiwan

dirtyshits

That’s cool. I work for AMAT. This is what I breathe everyday.

MrSirBeard

Already made my AMAT money pal. The writings on the wall I got out and am firmly positioned in MSFT and NOW calls

MrSirBeard

Already made my AMAT money, took profits and saw the writing in the wall. Now it's MSFT GOOG and NOW

Keizman55

Alternative Solution: In the past, I would just start selling CC’s above my cost basis, even knowing it make take months before I collect enough premium to escape at break even. A few months ago, I got caught in a similar situation OP in GLD and what I did was quite different. I had been wheeling AMAT a few months earlier but had gotten out of it before earnings, and had never gotten back in. I was a lot more positive about it’s prospects than GLD, so I closed my puts for a pretty big loss, and sold puts well ITM and collected the same amount of premium, figuring that AMAT would move up a lot more quickly. I got pretty lucky and AMAT went on a tear, even more than I expected, and my contracts are well OTM now. Even rolled on e for more premium. So instead of sitting on the GLD hoping for a turn around, I took my loss and put it into something with better prospects. BTW, SLV and GLD have similar prospects right now, which is not good for holding on and hoping. I’d be looking to redeploy into something with better short term prospects than chipping away at SLV. The key to this strategy is that you have to find a ticker with better prospects and have decent premiums (due to high volatility). Alternatively, you could take the loss, but not go too deep, just recover some of the loss, but be back in action, rather than sitting on the contracts.

ambidextrous12

I'm thankful for your views because they are so wildly wrong it means there are incredible pockets of opportunity created even in today's markets. India is never going to have a leading edge chip plant, let alone high end memory lmao You truly have no idea the complexities that go into setting up a leading edge fab in GPU or memory chips. You first need to buy state of the art wafer equipment (which is backlogged for years from ASML and AMAT and which costs tens to hundreds of millions of dollars per equipment, with each fab needing many such equipment), then spend years establishing the vast contractor ecosystem to do specialized testing, advanced packaging, dry etch, provide extremely niche consumables like cleaning slurries etc, then years more for training the workforce for highly specialized fab operation, then spend years internally developing the trade secrets for having high yields with low defect rates..thus is so astronomically expensive and time consuming that it's a stupid erand. The best indicator is to see the cost and time frames that Micron SKyhnix and Samsung themselves are planning for. Keep in mind that these are the three best companies in the world with the best expertise and know-how. Each of their new factories are scheduled to come live in 3 years+ time frame, some in a 5 year time frame. Micron is spending close to 40 billion US dollars in capex next year. The 3 memory companies combined are spending more on capex this year than the entire government of India spends on its entire military expenditure! No sovereign is going to fund this enterprise, just to reach reach in 5 years the "state of the art" of 2026 chips. In 5 years Micron Samsung TSMC are going to be exponentially ahead in their product lines. The only country with a realistic chance of possibly catching up to these leading edge fabs is China, but keep in mind that China itself is vastly undersupplied in compute and is a massive supply sink rather than a net supplier for at least the next 3 years. .

TheKaiserAlpha

I split semis into AI compute(NVDA/AMD), memory(MU), and infrastructure/capex(TSM/ASML/AMAT/LRCX). Infrastructure feels like the best risk/reward right now; AI compute is already priced for “no slowdown.” I’m holding what I have, but waiting for a clearer correction before adding more.

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

I hold and buy all of these regularly. NVDIA AMD AVGO TSM ASML are the safest. Anytime they are 10% off 52 week high I buy. MU 15% off, and AMAT LRCX KLAC 25%.

SQU1DSN1P3R61

I’m holding AMAT. Buy either, they move together mostly

Xzlk

LRCX or AMAT. Anyone not regarded know what they do. I need one of them.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

AMAT CEO: There's tremendous visibility for the eight quarters," Dickerson said. "Even three years out, it's more precise. I think, as we go beyond that, it's more kind of directional, and so we get the direction and the magnitude of the investments ahead of time." "The pervasiveness of the computing and the compute demand is unprecedented," he added. "This compute demand, I have very high confidence that this is going to increase at a tremendous rate for many years into the future."

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Applied Materials (AMAT) CEO Gary Dickerson said during an interview with Nikkei Asia that chipmakers are providing their equipment demand outlooks for two years or more, indicating the unprecedented capital expenditures related to the AI buildout might continue longer than anticipated. "Our largest customers, they're giving us more of the long-term visibility because they know there's a certain lead time that's needed, just like for them," Dickerson said in the interview.

AJ_Grey

Boy my screen is red today. Thank goodness for AMAT.

Average_TechSpec

Last time I sold a stock was AMAT at 720... Wish you the best on this one 😅

Safe-Statistician976

I hate investing to AMAT haha it goes down after I bought stocks last week Friday

Midpoint60

MU and AMAT have been giving me a bloody nose.

Spac55

Soon big banks and BigTech give strong earnings Looking great Q2 earnings by many big banks $C $JPM $WFC $BAC $GS $MS space all in $XLF. All big tech in $QQQ $SPX $NDX will give strong earnings, followed by big buybacks. Whole semiconductor sector $SMH $AMAT $ASML & many got a big boost from earnings spike

be_o3

Faaaak could have sold AMAT was up $100k+ in the stock went all in 

davidbigham

AMAT just keep dipping 🤷‍♂️

Excellent-Pay-4477

**The companies selling the picks and shovels:** Micron, SanDisk, Lam Research, Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA, ASML, and many others.

Abe2025

Come on AMAT. Down to 500 you go so I can buy in

Wapmen

I'm all cash now and don't know what to do. BE, AMD, ALAB pumped, but on the other hand GLW, MRVL, AMAT and memory did not. From premarket you could not tell which of them could moon. (but now its kind of meaningless to buy any of them) MAG7 are also flattish..

be_o3

Need AMAT back at ath 

Far_Feature2702

AMAT to 1T market cap.

Waiting4Reccession

AMAT MU Cash

zg44

Today is not a day to overreact. Most of today's action is just quarterly mechanics (new quarter starting and a lot of big funds are likely taking profit on semis that ran up into yesterday's close). Look at the names that ran up big the past week: ALAB, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, GLW, AMD; those are the names that are down the most.

Wonder_bread317

Structurally, this is a bullish but trading a 10-year macroeconomic headline requires separating the long-term trend from short-term implied volatility (IV). headlines causes an IV spike in names like AMAT or LRCX, buying long vertical spreads will carry a steep premium. If the expectation is that these stocks will grind higher slowly as the actual spending eventually hits their balance sheets, calendar spreads can capitalize on a near-term IV crush while maintaining exposure to the broader structural trend.

AnonThrowaway998877

I already own some of these but I think I need to own much more AMAT than I do

Sentinaapp

Solid breakdown. One thing worth adding to the chain logic: this kind of "demand cascades down the supply chain" reasoning is exactly why semiconductor equipment names tend to lag the AI leaders by a few quarters rather than moving in lockstep. Capex commitments from fabs take time to translate into actual equipment orders. Worth watching ASML's order backlog and lead times alongside AMAT. If both are climbing together it confirms the structural read rather than just riding the AI hype cycle. The "picks and shovels" thesis only holds if backlog data backs it up, not just stock price momentum.

Muted-Pace-5706

the service revenue angle is underrated here. once AMAT equipment is installed, the service contracts run for the life of the fab, which is 20 plus years. that recurring stream is way stickier than new tool orders and it doesnt depend on whether the next capex cycle shows up on schedule.

NoRisk_NoRarri

As an employee of AMAT, let tell you they are trash. Customer does not pay AMAT until chamber is delivered. Chamber delivery and set up is last step after construction and  building their mega fabrication plant . That means AMATs ability to realize this revenue is years out, just like their backlog. Look at the last 2 previous quarters. Laughable performance in my eyes. 2 quarters ago, semiconductor sales were down, but the company celebrated bigly on a small increase in revenue for tool services. What a joke. The major recent stock gains will not hold as AMAT will likely fail to show any serious growth, and investors will become impatient after few quarters. Then AMAT will sink back to low 20 PE or less where it belong. OP thinks AMAT is a shovels play, but it’s less than that. The real money is made on the product, like nvidia gpus with packaged memory. Not the tool company that squeezed out a 50% gross margin one time, then can’t scale well.  Just my take.

ajsharm144

I looked at the 5 year chart and it looked like one of those AI stocks. Then I searched what does AMAT do, oh baby.. of course.

UWMN

The screenshot was taken 21 minutes ago when AMAT was at $730.05

ExpensivePangolin712

When has AMAT ever hit $730 a share. Plus if you’re talking about today when it went up 68$ a share during market hours.. then you would’ve made over 27K … at 401 shares

AlpacaDream7

AMAT 800 tmrw

Port_Lens

I think the interesting question isn't whether NVDA or AMAT is the better business—it's how much exposure you actually want at each layer of the AI stack. You could make a reasonable case for owning: Infrastructure (NVDA, AMD), Equipment (AMAT, ASML, LRCX), Foundries (TSMC), Hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL), Software/app layer. That way you're not making a single bet on where the economic profits ultimately end up. History shows that sometimes the biggest winners aren't the companies everyone talks about today. The harder part is deciding the allocation between those buckets rather than picking one "winner."

be_o3

I keep telling everyone to buy AMAT stock 

be_o3

So happy to be in AMAT stock 

ThanklessWaterHeater

I’d say don’t invest where the money is flowing from; invest where the money is flowing to. Silicon fabs are in the midst of a massive buildout of new capacity all around the world. The new facilities will need eye watering amounts of new lithography, packaging, testing and quality control equipment. The beneficiaries over the next few years will be the makers of that equipment: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, etc.

Frequent-Length-9966

AVGO, AMAT, GE, GOOGL, SPCX and LIN are a few of my favorite names.

Inevitable_Zebra_0

That's the thing for most people, they only hear about hot stocks when they've already become hot and everybody starts talking about them, and they start wanting a piece of the pie too (FOMO). Which usually don't go well for them, because they start entering when the stock has already been hyped up too much, and long-term holders start taking profits. LRCX, alongside AMAT, ASML and several others had always been a huge value with big potential, wide moat to the point of being a monopoly and well run businesses overall, but you had to be a geek/connected to the semi industry to know these names before the AI cycle made them know to the average retail investor.

Muted-Pace-5706

the structural vs cyclical question is exactly the right one to ask before sizing options here. if you believe the WFE cycle is now 5+ years, short-dated calls on AMAT or KLAC are the wrong vehicle - you want LEAPS so theta isnt eating you alive while the thesis plays out. the other thing worth watching is that ASML IV tends to spike on any export restriction headline, which creates periodic windows to buy longer-dated calls at a discount before the next leg.

Swimming-Device-1223

AMAT to provide equipments to Samsung n SK expansion.

Midpoint60

Don't forget the Picks and Shovels play on a slow volume day: LRCX, AMAT, KLAC

silverfutes

Bruh, AMAT +12%, KLAC +10%, hell even AMD is green. Only red holdings are MU & Intel... We going back to 265.

dayvieee

AMAT, ALAB & LRCX ATHs today of all days

TreGet234

Diversified port of DRAM, BB, GLW, AMAT and POET

davidbigham

AMAT up 12%. This thing gonna hit $1000 soon

Far_Feature2702

AMAT to the moon!

Spac55

$AMAT DOJ investigation for China illegal shipping, similar like $SMCI Is it over ?

OptionsHuduga

I sold AMAT and ASML this morning like a fn cuckmaxxer. AMA

be_o3

Told you all about AMAT

FatFluffyFish

AMAT just disgusting

davidbigham

AMAT actually going straight up everyday

tachyonvelocity

Forget about memory, it’s a cyclical industry with easier entrants, if buying the picks and shovels of AI is so lucrative then the semi cap equipment are the picks and shovels of all semis, so double lucrative. LRCX, AMAT, KLAC some of the greatest companies of all time.

Luka__mindo

AMZN and AMAT are on steroids today

nigofe

AMAT flying, now i just need MU and SNDK to get their shit together! Give me a massive V now! Not asking, demanding! Tyvm

Frequent-Length-9966

What’s the consensus on AMAT?

ScoffersGonnaScoff

Bullish for AMAT

sigmakry

The $31 EPS guide is impressive on the surface, but you're right to be cautious — the bar just got raised significantly higher for the entire semi sector. When Micron beats by that margin, the market immediately reprices expectations for ASML, TSMC, and the rest of the chain upward. That's the trap. The real risk in July isn't a miss — it's a "good but not good enough" earnings season. If TSMC guides in line but doesn't raise, that gets sold. If ASML shows any EUV order softness, the whole equipment space cracks. From a positioning standpoint, the smarter play might be to fade the semi euphoria heading into earnings and look for re-entry post-report. The Chandelier Exit levels on MU and AMAT are worth watching closely — if either breaks below their 22-day trailing stops on high volume, that's a clean signal to step aside regardless of the fundamental narrative. July earnings are always a volatility event. The question is whether you're trading the number or the reaction to the number.

GlorifiedPlumber

You seem to be describing fab tools, like ASML, AMAT, LAM, etc. that go into the fabs. I literally design the FABS, the buildings, the cleanrooms, their utilities, clean gases, UPW, waste water treatments, etc. They're 3 to 4 year cradle to grave projects (from I want a fab! to blowdown), not inclusive of years and years of tool installation ramp. 100% of the projects we have right now are being done so that people can sell the AI machine hardware (think selling shovels to the gold miners, the ONLY people making money), and if that outlet didn't exist, they'd be canceled or transitioned to something we call a "warm shell" or "cold shell." "Cold shell" is kind of the new norm. At least with a warm shell, we usually finish our design, but for a cold shell.. a lot of shit stops to just do concrete and this is a huge risk. Honestly, cold shelling is a risk IMO. I have yet to see one started up years later without MASSIVE retrofitting. Now, they like a lot of pre-cast, which... wah wah, won't retrofit like they want (put holes for duct and pipe where you need em). So if the cold shell used a lot of pre-cast (which is kind of the sexy thing to do) then, I don't think those will retrofit the way the clients think they will. This is going to be a billion dollar problem one day, but at least, in the future. I digress, Fabs I helped design YEARS ago (let's say 2019-2022) era, are just now having some of their second large mods being "turned on" (as putting tools in the warm shell or starting up the cold shell) and it's 4-7 years later (thankfully these did not use Pre-cast concrete in key areas). As well, AI has been gong show for 2 ish years, and those companies are just NOW using that cleanroom space, and it doesn't turn on in an instant. So are they going to make it? Who knows. So my point, is that AI is triggering a huge amount of cleanroom square footage buildout; if that demand goes away, there is going to be SO MUCH "available" cleanroom space that I worry I won't ever have a job again. Demand will crater, which means the business unit where I work, which does just fabs, won't be able to survive, and that expertise will go away to do other work.

be_o3

Why did AMAT dip so much eod 

OptionsHuduga

BE and AMAT just filed bankruptcy

OptionsHuduga

WTF just happened to AMAT?

Spac55

$CVX market cap 340 Billion $AMAT market cap 520 Billion Both have flat revenue last 6 quarters, check https://preview.redd.it/1mhsk9ut4o9h1.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=81c9a21e25ae2d82341f1cebc256c70507986824

be_o3

Guh should I have sold AMAT at $668

AnotherThroneAway

Well, INTC barely counts. But AMD and MRVL are fair game. Many of the others are only mildly above their averages, though. I've owned AMAT and LRCX for decades, and yeah, they're pricing in a lot of future growth, but thy've had higher—and less justified—multiples many times in the past

jcpopm

AMD 174 INTC -212 (because they don't even make.money lol) MRVL 96 after recent pullback Not to mention AMAT, LRCX, etc which are all in the 80s. Even if you want to use forward P/E, which is a joke because the whole point of forward P/E is estimating continued future growth and the buildout is not going to last forever, everything but NVDA / AVGO remain absurdly expensive. Even when you cheat the nunbers they are atill unjustifiable by anything more than "chips r gud I buy."

be_o3

AMAT going to 1 Trillion 

CD274

People ignoring things like AMAT, KLAC, TER, GLW up 10+% today. It's not just memory

RAYoRAY

i had an AMAT call didn't fill cause i was being cheap on the spread prior to close yesterday. sucks

Midpoint60

\*Arrived home and checked my port...\* "Wow - I did great today" -- MU, AMAT, GEV, ETN, ABBV "Oh, wait" -- DELL, ORCL, IBM, PEP "Never mind." \*grabs bong from cupboard\*