Reddit Posts
$KO outperforms half of the Mag 7 in 2024 because of $NVO and $LLY
2023-05-01 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Bob Ross
2023-04-13 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Cookie Monster
2023-04-10 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Edna Mode
Applied Materials lead chips higher as sector reacts to bank backstops (AMAT)
Expected Moves: The CPI. Plus, Earnings from Palantir, Shopify, Cisco, AMAT and more.
Help! AMAT / LRCX / KLAC- Which are good for the long term?
2022-11-08 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
It is insane that Americans aren't looking for bargain bucket European stocks right now
Risky Strategy: Selling and Re-Purchasing to Reduce Cost Basis During a Crash
Big week coming here are my positions and thoughts
How did you originally pick your longest held and/or best positions? What did you learn from those picks?
Lost approximately $250k going back to January 11th . . . Starting the "slow slog" upwards (I think)
7 tech stocks that are most worthy of "cheap": Micron's forward price-earnings ratio is only 5.8 times
Need help on understanding option price and sudden increase in premiums pre-earnings
Sooo when are you thanking me ??? $AMAT is paying fat 💰
Should I do Friday account check before & after ?🤑💰 $BBWI / $KSS / $PANW / $AMAT
Earnings for the Week of May 16, 2022
S&P 500 had a neutral day overall, except TSLA and AMAT
Looking for some sound, sane advice for these troubling times.
160 AMAT Puts Expiring Friday. I want to buy calls because I think it will go up so obviously that means it will go down.
Consistent loses for a year straight. Then, doubled 17k from a loan overnight from random shitty pharmaceutical company, VRPX. My family thinks I’m a genius, y’all know I’m a lucky degenerate retard. Currently YOLO’d 160 AMAT puts expiring Friday.
$ICHR Holdings, Ltd. How Innovative Acquisitions Created an Industry Leader
The week ahead (Semis and CyberSecurity)
The week ahead [NVDA/AMAT/SNPS]; [PANW/CRWD/ZS]
A couple of pairs worth watching [AMAT/SNPS; PANW/CRWD/ZS]
Why I think people are sleeping on semiconductor tooling manufacturers.
Which semiconductors company has best long term growth potential?
Looking for "Chip Shortage" buys? Here are the companies that make the things that make the chips! ASML , AMAT , LRCX , KLAC
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, 70-100% upside potential in 3-6 months. The sentiment has been changed to bullish this week, a GREAT TIME TO BUY.
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, and has 60-100% upside potential in 3-6 months. (The sentiment has been changed to bullish this week, a GREAT TIME TO BUY).
MU, the most undervalued semi stock, has 20-30% upside potential in a month, 60-100% in 6 months (Sentiment turned to bullish this week, TIME TO BUY)
Applied Materials ($AMAT) – The Conductor Of The Tendies Train
Applied Materials Inc. ( $AMAT ) Earnings Thread — BULLISH
Applied Materials Inc. ( $AMAT ) Earnings Thread — VERY BULLISH!
Tickers with the most optimistic / pessimistic sentiment in this weekend's news coverage:
Why do TSMC and ASML have such low institutional ownership?
Why Goldman Sachs thinks these 32 stocks are very attractive
What is the best Semiconductor stock right now?
Top 2-3 Semiconductor companies among AMD, AMAT, TSM, MU, XLNX?
US Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
LRCX is the semiconductor play for 2021-2022
$AMAT DD and why semi-conductor stocks are a great play right now
$AMAT DD and why semi-conductor stocks are a great play right now
The global chip shortage and how I'll be taking advantage of the semi's dip: NVDA, AMD, AMAT, TSM
5 Possible Options Plays Now That Inflation Woes Are Being Priced In
Got an article on my phone today about a new ETF, QQQA. Any initial thoughts on this?
Expected moves this week. SPY, HD, TGT, AMAT, TSLA, RIOT
Mentions
The equipment demand being downstream of the chip demand point is legitimate and I should have addressed it more directly. The 'they sell equipment not chips' framing does gloss over the fact that if long-term chip demand growth slows, eventually the equipment cycle feels it. My counter would be that the current backlog at AMAT and LRCX is already locked in for 12–18 months, so the near-term impact is limited even if the long-term thesis gets complicated. The LNG / TSMC angle is one I hadn't fully connected and honestly it's more interesting than the export control story right now. If Asian spot LNG is getting squeezed and TSMC runs on gas, that's a direct operational risk that doesn't show up in the chip export narrative at all. Appreciate that, going to look at this more carefully.
the flip flop pattern is real and it's a fair point. this draft could get watered down or reversed entirely before finalization. but the China supply chain acceleration is actually part of why i'm more focused on equipment than chips right now. if China builds out domestic fabs regardless of what the US does, AMAT and LRCX still sell into that cycle. the restriction on finished chip exports doesn't touch the equipment layer the same way.
The equipment layer point is underappreciated. Export controls on finished chips don't touch the capital equipment cycle that supplies every foundry globally. AMAT, LRCX, KLAC sell into TSMC, Samsung, and the emerging Chinese fabs regardless of where the end chips ship. And TSMC's advanced node capacity is already committed years out. The real risk to watch is whether the licensing friction slows hyperscaler capex decision timing, not whether it kills demand. A delayed order is not a cancelled order, but it can mess with quarterly guidance in ways the market tends to overreact to short term.
the equipment companies are "neutral" framing is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. ASML just reported flat Q4 bookings and guided cautiously. if chip export controls tighten further, foundries outside the US reduce capacity additions, and suddenly ASML, AMAT, LRCX have fewer customers building new fabs. the whole "they sell equipment not chips" argument ignores that equipment demand is downstream of chip demand. also the "domestic demand is exempted so everything is fine" angle misses the bigger picture. the entire AI capex thesis depends on hyperscalers eventually monetizing that spend internationally. if Microsoft builds $80B worth of US data centers but can't fully deploy AI services in half the world because of restrictions on the underlying chips, the return on that capex gets harder to justify over time. honestly though, while everyone debates this export control draft, the actual underpriced risk to the chip supply chain right now is energy. Qatar's Ras Laffan going offline means Taiwan's LNG supply is getting squeezed hard. TSMC runs on gas. 60 days of reserves sounds comfortable until you realize Asian spot LNG just went vertical and every available cargo is getting outbid by desperate buyers. the intersection of the Hormuz energy disruption and semiconductor manufacturing is where i'd actually be looking, not some bureaucratic licensing framework that'll probably get watered down before it's finalized anyway.
I’d look to the semi-cap equipment companies instead who benefit so matter what. The LRCX, AMAT & KLAC
On the same day, March 23rd, MU, LRCX, AMAT, and GEV are being added to the S&P 100.
Having worked in the tool space for my entire career, I'd argue that you should prioritize investing in the tool companies in the following order - ASML, AMAT, LAM, KLA = TEL. I really don't see good long term arguments for investing in Lam > Applied as deposition and product diversity is just so much more important. Once (if) the memory cycle dies down, Lam just goes back to being an solely etch company. ASML's litho monopoly is definitive but the closest one following is AMAT's dep dominance, then followed by Lam's etch dominance.
What does this mean for MU, LRCX and AMAT. I have seen addition to S&P 500 causing a jump in stock price, but not sure about S&P 100
MU, LRCX and AMAT please fly
The ETF has about $46b USD in AUM. When the ETF rebalances, it both buys and sells equities to the point where the percentages are at their new desired weights. But the total value is still about $46b. Of course as the market moves, the AUM moves. Hypothetically, if I had $10b worth of NVDA. And I sold $2b, and bought $1b AMAT and $1b LRCX, it's still $10b worth of assets composed of different mix.
I hold some of all the main ones mentioned here all over, but I never see people mention these companies that have been doing solid, any holders? TER Teradyne CLS Celestica AMAT Applied Materials And I'm hopeful for POET too
Some are pretty liquid though ? MU and AMAT should have very liquid options markets? Maybe that rule of thumb is becoming less true ? I’ve found leaps on Googl/amzn/msft/ma etc. to be very liquid .
Before selling, force yourself to answer three following questions: 1. Is this event permanently damaging MU, AMAT or WDC’s long-term business? 2. Can I naеe an exact re-entry price and timing with real confidence? 3. Is the expected drop clearly bigger than my total round-trip friction? If you cannot answer those precisely, you are not executing a plan, you are reacting to fear. With 300+ days to expiry, your edge is time. Most geopolitical spikes are noise for long-dated semiconductor LEAPS. Acting on short-term fear usually benefits market makers more than you.
Any thoughts on if AMAT or KLAC can outperform VTI over the next 20 years
I own AMD, NVDA, AMAT; but the one I own that I've been adding to since 04/25 (owned it pre-tariff dip) is MRVL. Many analysts have them by 4th quarter 2027 at $150-60. Currently sitting at $82.
AMAT does this, dunno why more firms don't do this
Mine is about 35%, not because I intended it that way, but because my semis have gone up so much (NVDA AVGO are the 2 biggies). I don't feel the need to diversify out yet... because the companies are still growing with no end in sight. Here's the thing, semis were hot back starting in 2017-18-ish timeframe. That's because the world is moving more digital, electric, "smart" and connected - all of this grows the semi market - it's not just about AI. AI made it go exponential since big tech is trying to accelerate AI advancements with huge upfront capex spend. Just look at your charts for LRCX ASML CDNS AMAT ADI SNPS KLAC and many others - upwards since 2017.
My friend who works at AMAT said stock will hit 400s My cat confirmed
Im still in AI bottlenecks like AMAT,ASML, or TSM
This is emotional betting vs professional. Invest in good stocks - AMAT, ASML, NVDA, AMD, GOOG etc I'm sire there are many good stocks out there
AMAT, the congresspeople are buying
They’re in the semiconductor equipment sector and may see growth if the current mania for chips continues. But looking at their financials, they have lower revenue and profit now than they did in 2022, and have in fact lost money every year since 2022. That seems bad, especially at a time when related companies like LRCX and AMAT have seen ballooning revenue and profits (and share prices). I would want to know exactly what is boosting the share price now before investing myself. I’m not seeing any reason for the rise in their numbers.
I just bought NOW, CRM, PANW on the low. Last week CAT, APLD, AMAT. Watching stocks that benefit from building the infrastructure of AI data centers. Already heavy on chips, energy, gold instead of bitcoin.
Money leaving Mag 7 for AI infrastructure building. My latest buys were CAT, APLD, AMAT. See also energy like GEV, NLR. Already loaded with LRCX, MU, SNDK.
First thing is I only trade companies that I understand what they do and how they make the majority of their money. Next, I am a Fidelity customer so I use their resources and check what the analysts recommendations are. If they don’t align with my view I try to see what I am missing. I also use their screener to filter on the major variables that others have listed but am not strict on those unless some negative really stands out. I also read or listen to their earnings calls and have alerts set for any news on their tickers. I picked up AMAT a few months ago and had a good understanding of their business and have done really well with it, wish I had trusted myself enough to hold through earnings overnight. My other tickers that I have done well with here and there are V, GS, KO, MA, MSFT, COST. I try to avoid holding through earnings because I got burnt with Costco - was 100% right on fundamentals but earnings call comments killed it (“…something, something, something, expect tariff headwinds…”)
Welp, wish I had just bought and held AMAT rather than traded it. Cost basis on those shares was between 100-120 and sold out at 160.
Sold my AMAT 377 call for $500 this morning to some regard, its worth $12 rn 🤣
low volume day. 3 day weekend. It's up and sure feels like groundhog's day. MU to AMAT: the AI trade is accelerating & demand goes up \[again\]? Who's buying? NeoCloud GPU rentals are still >$1/hr.... on h/w 3 generations ago.
AMAT up almost 10% singlehandedly carrying my portfolio
AMAT up 11%, MU down 4%. Make it make sense
I should have pulled the trigger on my AMAT call before closing yesterday. I wonder if I should still buy in or not
AMAT up 10% pre market... 100% for the year. Best stock ever
if AMAT can hold this 11% but on the negative direction thatd be great. netanyahu please save me
Spent $176 on Spy calls, and it's not budging. Spent 30 minutes researching AMAT, didn't pull the plug, they pull a$40 bump out of their ass. %13 bump fffffff
Yoo, betting against AMAT rght now? Memory demand is only gonna grow with AI, bro. Lmao.
Jevons Paradox - Improving efficiency doesn't always lead to less consumption. >For companies like AMAT or TSMC, even if a single AI task becomes 100x cheaper, the world will likely respond by running 1,000x more tasks, ensuring that the hunger for advanced hardware remains insatiable.
You should learn more about the bigger picture. AMAT is a major supplier in the semiconducting industry and in my book the suppliers are probably safer than the manufacturers or sellers and more likely to be the ones who come out ahead in a bubble.
AMAT sitting on a +13% after hours throne right now but I’m calling it it’s going to dump hard. Wrote a quick hype piece for your DD if you want the reasoning. [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1r3a6b1/ath\_on\_zero\_growth\_meet\_amat/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1r3a6b1/ath_on_zero_growth_meet_amat/)
AMAT makes equipments to make memory which is a bottleneck right now for AI, but sure buy some long dated puts to bet against it
As long as Nvidia, AMD, and others keep churning out advanced chips and companies continue to stay at the forefront of upgrading - firms like AMAT will never starve, contrary to what your post seems to insinuate.
Pump tomorrow based on AMAT earnings. We’ve done this for the last few quarters now where one big name in the AI supply chain lifts all boats. The market doesn’t actually know how AI will be profitable so it settles for companies that “make” AI showing profit. Except for CRDO and AMAT I’m bagholding those 2 so they’ll shed another 10% but every other high beta AI stock will pump
Should AMAT stock price be Zero? Zero tolerance for against the law….Lost a fortune!
Damn I have not been paying attention to AMAT 😭
Just had a sell off today AMAT posted great earnings CPI numbers are releasing tmr Shorten week next week because of a holiday Yup tmr’s going to be green
How deep will your loss be on AMAT?
AMD, NVDA, AMAT, GOOG, MSFT, MRVL, ORCL. I wouldn't do anything until Q1 is over, I suspect more bloodshed is on the horizon. Rather buy on a 5-10% upswing and see something positive. Lately, even blowout quarterly earnings are having no effect on stock prices. So many good companies that had excellent earnings still saw their share price drop 10% or more.
$MU and $SNDK again $AMAT earnings
AMAT saving my port to live again another day
AMAT up 13% after hours, software is moving inverse of semis, so don’t expect much software upside yet
AMAT movement proves technical trading is lowkey a scam. It is showing a huge double top on the ytd chart, which should mean bearish according to technical, but the stock is up 13% after earnings. That is why I always say trade with your gut instinct and use maybe 1 or 2 technical tools that you like...
After listening to some of your regards, I sold 2 of my 3 AMAT calls for a loss today. Fuck me 😭😭 https://preview.redd.it/dd9pg2je55jg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59628920fd62ec9d0bed3938adef8067973215a1
AMAT up like 11% on earning. Semi sector should be gucci tmr
Why AMAT is up even after to pay $252 million over illegal exports to China? someone cares LAW?
Was about to go back to VOO and chill since I lost 50k in a week, but now AMAT is printing AH. Thank God I don't have to go back to that life for a bit longer
I guess we all missed the real play... AMAT damn... and it pumped ASML with it
Starting to think I'm the CEO of AMAT or something, this is like the sixth straight quarter I've played earnings right, lol. I should probably start buying more than a couple thousand bucks.
My AMAT puts were up 100% today and will now be worthless tomorrow lol
AMAT and coin both up
Damn, I was right and so wrong on my plays this week. APP calls and AMAT puts. APP crushed results exceeding revenues, income, and a raise to the forecast. AMAT had some overall positive results but semiconductor revenue actually DECLINED almost 10% year over year. They announced they need to settle up a $250m penalty and the only other big news is Samsung joining their test lab whenever it will be built in like 2027-2028. Obviously AMAT needs to rocket to ATH, because lower revenue and margins is a great thing - on the most highly sought after product in the market today....
AMAT up big in after hours. Crushed earnings. :)
Lot of downs and except for Arista all the companies that went up sharply like Dutch Bros and AMAT just came back up to where they were on Tuesday. I guess the play is to short everything 2 days before earnings. You will break even on the ones that pop and clean house on the dumps.
Sigh why did I pick buying QCOM over AMAT, because I’m regarded that’s why
I was looking hard at AMAT calls, but since it usually don't move a lot on earnings, I didn't get them 😔
AMAT is the new NVDA.
AMAT is the real savior 🤌
AMAT pumping on earning. Semi gang there is hope for tmr
AMAT showing a glimpse of the trend coming soon.....
So glad my 2 whole shares of AMAT are green…..for now. *cries*
sheesh AMAT. Dragging SOXL out of the depths.
did AMAT just saved the market?
AMAT beat, up 10 percent after hours. Biggest regret is not buying more when it cratered months ago.
Ooooof my AMAT puts are cooked
Yep, same with TOST, ROKU, TLWO, DXCM, ANET and AMAT. Bought at the bottom
Gonna lose a lot of money if you’re purchasing AMAT puts
How did AMAT do past few earnings? How did stock move?
AMAT historically had bad earnings stock movements?
ANET or AMAT earnings play today?
Moves today: ANET/AMAT/FROG/TOST/TWLO/ROKU/BROS, also adding more MU shares
Hubs and Applovin might buck the trend of software slaughter as they are already down a lot. AMAT, ANET and Cisco should jump up
AMAT Er today gonna kill ur puts sir,,,
Someone tell me the magic number to sell on AMAT. I'm up about 100 percent and at some point there's more risk in holding than selling.
Who is playing AMAT earnings tomorrow? I am short I would agree with that. This bitch doesn’t seem to die
Who is playing AMAT earnings tomorrow? I am short 40 stocks
I'd highly recommend AMAT calls right now.
Feels like APP could soar with how much they have come down and their revenue stepping up with a new full year forecast. Meanwhile feels like AMAT is likely to tank, sky high price and quarterlies have been really inconsistent for a while now.
AMAT puts for me. This season everything is getting hammered except for Meta which came back down as easily.
If it wasn’t a sizeable part of my portfolio already i definitely would be buying more. I personally loaded up on AMAT on Thursday
The ASML moat is incomparable. Sources: I've worked at AMAT (even if a lonnng time ago)
You are very welcome. There will be many winners, those are just some of my favorites. I left some out as others have mentioned…Marvel, Dell, HPE, SMCI, AMAT, ARM. There are more stocks that will benefit but it’s an exhaustive list. I think the ones listed give you a pretty good place to start. Just look at the projected numbers for the next 5 years. I’m full porting AI stocks and I don’t give AF what anyone thinks. Good luck! -Projected US AI Spend 2025: ~$300 billion 2026: ~$600 billion 2027: ~$650 billion 2028: ~$700 billion 2029: ~$750 billion 5-year cumulative total: ~$3.0 trillion 5-year total: ~$6.5 trillion