ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners LP
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Rep. Virginia Foxx is the only member of Congress trading $ARLP, and she just bought more
Electricity and coal stocks: NEE, NRG, VST, BTU, CNR, and XLU
2023-04-12 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Gordon Ramsay
2023-02-01 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
$ARLP 2024 LEAPS are trading extremely cheap
$ARLP - thermal coal prices have gone parabolic by 300% since Sept 2020; China energy crunch triggers alarm with pleas for more Coal; Europe turns to coal as gas shortage continues
$ARLP - thermal coal prices have gone parabolic by 300% since Sept 2020; China energy crunch triggers alarm with pleas for more Coal; Europe turns to coal as gas shortage continues; and last but not the least, there is a Coal Shortage
My Watchlist For 4/12/2021 -- Energy Is Primed So I Am Focusing That
Mentions
Ran $ARLP through a stock benchmarking tool out of curiosity. Cash generation is genuinely strong - FCF yield around 10-11%, and their balance sheet is unusually clean for a commodity producer. Interest coverage is 3x the peer median. That's what's funding the dividend. The tension though: they're paying out more in dividends and buybacks than they actually generate in free cash flow. Revenue is already down 10% YoY. That works... until it doesn't. The AI power demand tailwind is real and does support coal near-term. But "near-term support for a structurally declining fuel" is a specific thesis to keep adding to. Not saying she's wrong - the yield is doing a lot of work here. Just something to watch.
Coal supplies approximately 15% to 17% of U.S. electricity Alliance Resource Partners is the 2nd largest coal producer in the Eastern US. Rep. Virginia Foxx owns up to $1.1 million of ARLP based on her financial disclosures
Yeah, I noticed my coal mine stock hasn't really gone down since the war started. ARLP is what I am in. 10% dividend is why I got in.
Yet, US Natural Gas is dumping. These ARLP $30 calls are not looking good.
ARLP is a coal company and they have a 10% dividend. There is a coal event tonight.
Wow I don’t know I will get a different tax document for ARLP or XFIR. So far I am only holding some options on ARLP since the implied volatility is low. I don’t want to report tax to more states. Natural gas seems to be a more complicated topic, but I bet some on EQT, EXE and CNX calls. Comparatively, coal industry is much smaller and I feel it can have an outsized gain. Right now I am 1/3 in KWEB/BABA, 1/3 in energy, and 1/3 in all kinds of speculatively Trump mining stocks. Lol
ARLP in the green today!
Cry because my ARLP call was at $110 profit and now has bottomed to being worthless
Monitor my ARLP call. I’d get in if I was y’all
I bought an ARLP call that expires 5/17/24. Let’s see 🤷🏻♂️
> Biden Officials Mull Quicker Death for US Coal Power Plants ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/biden-officials-mull-quicker-death-for-us-coal-power-plants?re_source=postr_story_1)) Quick notes: This only affects coal power plants, hence thermal coal companies (BTU, ARLP, CEIX, e.g.). Does not affect met coal miners. (AMR, HCC). And CEIX is a heavy exporter anyway / BTU has Australian operations and extensive exports. The proposed regulations are about requiring coal power plants to either shut down by 2032, or shut down by 2035 and be used less frequently / use more natural gas instead, or fit carbon capture tech and be allowed to run into the 2040s. Here's the 'good' news for a coal investor: market doesn't give coal companies any credit for FCF generated past 5 years. Hell, HCC doesn't even get any credit for their met coal coming online in 2026. Moreover, if US energy demand keeps rising (with the help of datacenters thirsty for energy), nuclear power doesn't come on line, natural gas pipelines unbuilt, and NIMBY interests blocking renewable energy / transmission networks, the inevitable result is these coal power plant shutdowns get indefinitely pushed back. I personally do not like investing in thermal coal (other than BTU), however, as I just don't see the upside vs. met coal.
$20ish for ARLP is pretty good. Any energy stock is in demand right now. Buy and hold for the steady dividend is what I plan to do and what I advise anyone also.
>ARLP I was looking at that. Same with ARCH, any idea why they are so high?
For coal, I like ARLP. I am getting ready to buy more shares of this great dividend stock.
I personally am not interested in thermal pure plays, especially those that primarily serve the US (I haven't looked into it but it seems ARLP is not a major exporter? BTU by contrast has major Aussie operations that exports to Asian countries). We have a lot more energy options in the US that are cost-competitive. On the other hand, China/India can't get enough energy so there is a reliable increase in demand to keep prices up.
Thanks for sharing. My steel stocks are suffering too, I imagine for similar reasons. How do you feel about ARLP? I know it's thermal coal. That dividend is amazing but I'm not sure how many years we could eke out 'til it goes to 0 or whatever.
In the thermal market, and its considerable headwinds, I wouldn't go with BTU based on their poor management. If you think there is a bull case for thermal - or more like a cigar-butt case then I would focus on the best managed with the best balance sheet. To me that is ARLP. Their CEO has a salary of $1.00 and their core management has been with the company for decades and has high insider ownership. They never declared bankruptcy. Their balance sheet is seriously impressive.
If i were to make investment advice, and I'm not an investor so keep that in mind; I would suggest owning QQQ above the 50 week moving average. If you want to fundamentally analyze things, it's a skill that takes years of cultivating and extreme intelligence. Suggesting owning American stocks because "the rest of the world sucks" is... crazy. There are tons of solid business outside of america. I've had experience buying companies that were priced for bankruptcy in times of great panic (covid). I bought a portfolio of only OVV, CEIX and ARLP in the month of march. My family likes to own canadian banks. You could consider owning the highest yielding one, they tend to perform extremely handsomely if you rebalance the portfolio to the highest yielding one every year. But like I said, the best strat of mine is owning QQQ, preferably with leverage the week it crosses above the 50w. I think, if you want to learn about market timing, which is an essential skill to investment that people like buffett have nailed (but lie, and say they dont care) you should look into market breadth. You can learn about market breadth by studying T2108 on TC2000 or using any other method you google. Waiting for QQQ to cross the above the 50w MA is a breadth indicator. If you would like to become extremely good at the topic, there are plenty of incredible traders on Stockbee's website. The guy's a bit cooky and sometimes demeaning, but a membership on the site will teach you a lot about market timing, which will help your investment portfolio. ​ Those are my thoughts, I hope they're insightful.
The other coal names people seem to like are ARCH/CEIX/ARLP/HCC (I would avoid the ones focused primarily on thermal coal, and stick to met coal). Some focus more on buybacks (like AMR), others focus more on dividends. All of these have run-up a bit more than say BTU (see below) because of this. I think AMR is the best deal in the met coal space at today's valuations. I saw some recent critiques of CEIX. The riskiest play is BTU (60/40 thermal/met mix), which is set to announce buybacks/dividends in the next month or two. It is therefore the cheapest since it has had 0 shareholder returns for a long time. I only own BTU/AMR because I am looking for a high risk/reward play. The best place to get DD is Twitter, see @tradedollarnut, @mfwarder, @ZeroSumBond, @respeculator, @EnergyCredit1, @aggresivevalue, @dyer440, @8750Capital . (They are all following each other, so just check out their feeds)
Been getting hard for non-ESG compliant companies like ARLP lately 🤤 climate change is the new 2012 tbh
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [CGC](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CGC) 03/17 3P for $0.40 or less * [STM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#STM) 03/17 47P for $2.10 or less * [AEO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AEO) 03/17 16P for $1.05 or less * [ARLP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ARLP) 03/17 22.5P for $1.10 or less * [WY](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WY) 03/17 34P for $1.25 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [F](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#F) 03/17 13P for $0.50 or less * [MRNA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MRNA) 03/17 175C for $12.70 or less * [SCHW](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SCHW) 03/17 80C for $1.80 or less * [AMRS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AMRS) 03/17 2C for $0.15 or less * [HUM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HUM) 03/17 510P for $17.20 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.82 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 58% and 79%. (Stats as of 2022-12-31)
Don’t sleep on ARLP. It’s a leader in the coal industry, a well run business that pays a great dividend.
No, I'm great at trading. I just got picked up and locked in the hospital before my options expired and I was able to sell them. Lemme pick a direction for market close tomorrow plus a stock for weeks end. SPY up tomorrow by at least 0.75%, ARLP 20.9 on friday. See? Fucking easy mate.
Right. If, after being presented with an explanation of the risk of something, you find yourself saying "if it moves 10% up in the next 3 months, you're good" as a counter-argument, then you may want to stick to that demo account a little longer - I don't think this is for you yet. Just for shits and giggles, let's look at your gotcha scenario: Buy 100 Jan'24 25C now at $258 debit. In 3 months, ARLP rises 10% to 24.45. With that nice steady rise comes a typical drop in IV from 35% down to, say, 25%. Because OTM LEAPS have a high vega, this results in your Jan'24 25 calls _falling_ to $235 as at 1 April '23 - a loss of $23. Liquidity may also be a challenge with LEAPs, hence you might not find a bidder immediately resulting in you dropping your ask further to attract bids. So, if it "moves 10% up in the next 3 months", you're still not good. In any event, I didn't say that LEAPs are a bad idea. I said that _OTM_ LEAPs are a bad idea. _ITM_ LEAPs are a good way to get leveraged exposure to shares without a margin account. But even ITM LEAPs are not some magical profit multiplier and you are not getting that leverage for nothing.
Okay, reality check on OTM LEAPs needed here because this sort of advice comes up far too often here. So, you could buy 100 Jan'24 25C for around $270 net debit. ARLP rises 25% to $27 by Jan '24, at which point your calls are worth about $220. You lose about $50 because most of the initial option premium that you paid is extrinsic value (or "time value"). Or you could buy 12 ARLP shares outright for around $265 and forget about the calls. ARLP rises to $27 by Jan '24, at which point your ARLP shares are worth $324. You make $59 profit. Same initial outlay, same share price, but your OTM LEAPs lose money whereas outright shares make profit. Granted, if ARLP rises above $28, then your calls are going to give back substantially more profit than outright shares, but the reward/risk ratio is actually worse for the calls than for the outright shares. ARLP needs to go to zero to lose 100% in the outright shares scenario, but your options will lose 100% even if ARLP _rises_ by 10%. Don't buy OTM LEAPs. It's not smart, and aside from a lucky bet occasionally, you will lose in the long run. If you're going to buy long dated calls, go as far ITM as you can to minimise the amount of extrinsic value that you are paying for. ARLP Jan'24 15C, for example, will cost you $765 but the break even is only $22.65 (2.3% up from current). If ARLP rises to $27 by Jan '24, your profit is about $435 (or 59%). That's a far better reward/risk than the OTM calls.
i know this thread was a long time ago, but do you have any thoughts on $ARLP for coal?
#this is why you trust me. BTU and ARLP green on the day. BTU beat earnings by 25%. EPS $2.34 vs. 1.83 estimate. SPY massively red and we are up green. Best stock of 2023.
Dont bet on tech, buy stocks that are making money NOW. Especially during a recession. BTU and ARLP.
#me laughing bc I know my BTU and ARLP investment will be up 40%+ by end of the year. Slowly but surely. Not like betting on tech stocks down 20% in a day.
#Life about to get real serious with BTU/ARLP coal stocks 2023
International Energy Agency (IEA) expects coal demand to likely increase further in 2023 and touch a new all-time high due to drought in China that is limiting hydro power and the high cost of natural gas. #MORAL OF THE STORY: BUY BTU and ARLP before they skyrocket
#BTU and ARLP rising
#Easy buy for commodities like BTU and ARLP rn. Fuckin easy. Watch em go up 35-40% by the end of 2023. Winter is coming.
Dont put your belief in tech. Get commodity stocks for this winter and 2023. Supply is short and will be for a long while. #BTU AND ARLP
#yup last chance on BTU before it skyrockets next week. Also ARLP
#BTU and ARLP before they skyrocket. Trust me. 2023
#coal skyrocketing, get BTU and ARLP before they go up like 100% by 2023
#last chance to load up on BTU and ARLP
#No more tech stocks. Time to buy shit that will rise 60-130% by early 2023. Coal stocks. BTU, ARLP, ARCH.
#all yall forgot about my boy BTU, ARCH and ARLP
#ARCH popping off like I said. Next up BTU and ARLP. Coal stonks. 131% gains in 2023
#2023 highest gains: BTU, ARCH, ARLP. Source: trust me bro
#COAL stocks 2023: profitable and money machines with HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY (russia/ukraine arent even big factors). Trust me. BTU, ARCH, ARLP
Thanks. Do the researcha nd you’ll see why BTU/ARCH/ARLP are my top picks
Tell me your bear thesis idiot. You have nothing on BTU/ARLP
No more tech. Tech is gone. Buy COAL stocks like BTU, ARCH and ARLP flush with coal inventory and cash.
#You know those stocks that take forever to go up? But in 6-8 months they are up 131%? Buy coal stocks now before the demand shows and these growth stocks go crazy during this recession and hard economic times. Tech is slowing, coal is going up. BTU, ARCH, ARLP. Those 1-2% days add up and next thing u know boom 100%
#BUY COAL STOCKS (BTU, ARCH, ARLP) these will BE UP ANOTHER 100% in 2023. Read the fundamentals. Tech stocks are not it.
# Tickers of Interest **Gamma Max Cross** * [PCG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PCG) 11/18 12P for $0.50 or less * [MLCO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MLCO) 11/18 6P for $0.60 or less * [ARLP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ARLP) 11/18 22.5P for $1.60 or less * [SOXS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SOXS) 11/18 62P for $10.85 or less * [SARK](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SARK) 11/18 61P for $4.95 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [SOXL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SOXL) 11/18 10C for $1.80 or less * [MNTV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MNTV) 11/18 5P for $0.30 or less * [DKS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#DKS) 11/18 115C for $5.50 or less * [SQM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SQM) 11/18 95C for $7.80 or less * [JNJ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JNJ) 11/18 165P for $5.05 or less # Trading Thesis Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
Breakout watchlist: OSH, GEO, PDD, ARLP, IS Current positions: VLD, VERV, AXSM, VRDN, BLFS, TQQQ ARLP has a fantastic flag, but it is also quite extended, up 3x in the past year already. Could still have legs of course. Good luck everyone.
#Ban Bet Lost /u/PassiveA (0/1) made a bet that ARLP would go to 28.515900000000002 when it was 25.69 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.
Better coal like ARLP for winter
ARLP all the way through the winter, 6.6 % dividents and unclear situation with energy supply in EU. Unfortunately I don't have a free funds to invest there, but if I would get some.. all in from now
haha yea not apple, ARLP has got some good momentum going
**Ban Bet Created:** **/u/PassiveA** bet **ARLP** goes from **25.69** to **28.52** before **2022-09-05 19:10:38.992356-04:00**
For someone looking to increase coal exposure in NA would you recommend METC or CEIX? I thought ARLP has some potential as well.
I tried to tell everyone about ARLP, but nobody listened.
Wym nobody? Some of us watch high yield stable companies and buy downswings and massive dips. But when we talk about this and how to evaluate these things it gets lost in the see of memes and tendies. I understand, I really do. I know that "hey um... watch these specific companies and when they dip over the years load up a bit and hold forever, and you will find yourself sporting a pretty nifty 15-25% annual yield on your investment amounts" isn't exactly the flashy advice people are looking for. But it's how you end up with a nice little side portfolio that didn't cost you your retirement that pays you $40k/year after 5-7 years of looking around for things like this. The best safest path to beating to massively beating the market over a long term is invest largely in the market, and just wait, and wait, and watch, and wait, and watch. And when opportunities arise, seize them. But... here is an important step. Make sure you are actually knowledgeable about the companies and can tell the difference between catastrophe and a good price. ARLP is a shining example. I've watched it for over 5 years, and extensively read about market situations relevant to it. Shares purchased during the Covid downturn are now yielding 30%+ on the purchase price, and have appreciated in market value 6 fold. Now you can either just sell it off and put it back safely in the market and wait and watch again. Or you can stick to your pick. Either is fine. Do whatever you want. It's your money, nobody cares. But one of the easiest to understand and master paths to early retirement is looking for good income investments. Mind you, one of the easiest paths to losing your account is by falling for sucker yields. Because for every 30% yielding company that is going to rebound, there are 5-6+ that will not, and will continue tanking possibly to 0. If you can't tell the difference with 80% accuracy, just stick to market investing.
I posted about ARLP for 2 years on a different account. Got told I was stupid so often I gave up. Posted about it before the winter and said it was going to hit $15 minimum if not more. The financials and world situation were just impossible to continue to ignore forever. $$$
Diamond hand that coal mine lease all the way to a net zero economy! For serious, buddy of mine has been bagholding $ARLP thinking it'll make a comeback since 2010, and has recently started doubling down with the latest run they've been on. Still dollar cost average at a down 70% after distributions position though.
Just like anyone's analysis, you have to take with a grain of salt. A few years ago I rid of a company called ARLP. They paid out a 12.9% dividend. They were extremely low. I took a chance on them and eventually started scaling in. It has paid very well. Not only has it paid out. Great dividends. It also has gone up 500% since buying it. I also sell covered calls on it, making it one of my best assets these past few years. I'm just bragging a little. But yes, sometimes they do recommend some great pics that no one else is talking about.
Hit $UVXY for 11% Hit $LIAN for 9% pre market 🙏🙏 $Nex $BLBX $ARLP are next week Have an awesome weekend.
Smaller energy companies ARLP and EGY. I got murdered on EXXON
Lol WSB getting into energy!? Now I know I should definitely sell my multibaggers. Bought ARLP around the 2020 election. More than doubled my HNRG position and will hold SJT to doubling. Should have bought when the retards were going about our “green future” and they elected the real dotard. LPG is still insane cheap though. Also not too late to get in Kazatomprom (LSE:KAP)
>I hope you nailed better exits than me. *I did not*. Apr14 150c @ 2.66, sold at 2.96. I can't remember why I exited so early. I should really keep a trade journal. Sold all but one ARLP call today at 0.70. Thanks again for the trade idea. It is a great one.
📮 Update to [my coalescing against coal play](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/txjiwe/comment/i3muv60/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Ok, so I originally posted this play on Apr 6, [sold some positions on Apr 8](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/tz0xl0/comment/i3we9ag/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), and although I didn't time the top perfectly, I've already sold a lot today. **AMR Apr14 140c** for $1.13 Sold for $3.30 (192%) on Apr 8 and for $6.00 (**430%**) today. I'm out. **ARCH Apr14 145c** for $2.35 Sold for $6.50 (**176%**) on Apr 8 and for $6.40 (172%) today. I'm out. **ARLP May20 17.5c** for $0.35 Sold for $0.38 (8%) on Apr 8 and for $0.70 (**100%**) today. I'm out. **BTU Apr14 28c** for $0.85 Sold for $1.70 (100%) on Apr 8 and for $1.75 (**105%**) today. I'm out. **CEIX Apr14 40c** for $0.65 Sold for $1.05 (61%) on Apr 8 and for $2.90 (**346%**) today. I'm out. **HCC Apr14 40c** for $0.20 Sold for $0.40 (**100%**) on Apr 8 and for $0.25 (25%) today. I'm out. **METC May20 20c** for $0.50 Sold for $0.65 (30%) on Apr 8 and for $1.00 (**100%**) today. I still have some left here. **NRP May20 45c** for $1.20 Sold for $1.40 (16%) on Apr 8 and for $2.65 (**120%**) today. I still have some left here. [NUE Apr14 150c](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/txjiwe/comment/i3myqn1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) for $3.10 This one was suggested by u/garbatater. Nice one, man! I hope you nailed better exits than me. Sold for $5.22 (68%) on Apr 8 and for $8.73 (**181%**) today. I'm out.
How does this compare to Alliance Resource (ARLP), the second largest coal producer in the eastern US and has 1.7 billion tons in reserve? Who are they selling to? They have an offtake agreement with Integrity Coal Sales through which they sell 22,000 tons / month, but no customer relationships beyond that. So their top line will be pegged to the price of coal until that point minus whatever the broker is taking for their troubles. Also, metallurgical coal is only used in blast furnace steel manufacturing, which is a dying industry. EAF mills, which don't require coal - only scrap - have taken over as the majority -- US Steel, Commercial Metals, Steel Dynamics, Nucor, etc all have EAF mills now. In the US, there were over 125 blast furnaces in the 1970s. Now there are maybe 25? If you want blast furnaces, go to China. But don't bother trying to ship your coal that far. Transport costs crush your margins. Again, real company - 1.7 billion tons in reserve. Bens Creek - 2.4 million tons. Hilarious squirrel memes and jokes aside, if you're going to hop in quickly, be ready to hop out quickly too. That's all I'm saying.
Yeah buddy! By all means take profits, I truly don’t know how far it could go. Coal prices have been steady and ARLP has contracts into 2023 booked. They might raise the dividend again. I think you cant lose if you take some profits and hold some stock for the rest of the year, just my 0.02.
On news of a mild winter and dipping natural gas prices, coal stocks should fall. Recently I've been reading up on the thermal coal subsector specifically and have been waiting for a chance to throw down a spread. Imo thermal coal has another 5 years of life left. I doubt mines will close voluntarily when fuel reserves aren't full. The COP26 climate summit was more of a cop-out than anything and the global stance against coal ended up weakened as opposed to strengthened. An American carbon tax would change my stance but j can't see the Democrats managing that and it's definitely not in the Trump 2024 platform. A carbon cap-and-trade system would probably strengthen my conviction and I'd double down. Barring carbon pricing, I think the only thing that can save thermal coal beyond 2030 would be a South American economic turnaround combined with sanctions against Brazil. I.e. thermal coal is dead in 2030. I'm spreading 2% of my holdings into my own coal index (2k lulz). In ascending order of weight: $CEIX CONSOL Energy $ARLP Alliance Resources $ARCH Resources And the real congo homo play: $HNRG Hallador Energy @ $2.43 Go get the power of man's red flower and make your dreams come true, apes. Last chance is coming and going.
ARLP hike in next 2-3months when they post earnings from the winter season
Long time reader; first time poster! I won't bore anyone with the investment thesis. I own \~1100 shares of ARLP in a taxable account. I'm up 47% on the position. I don't see near term upside but I can easily see it falling 30% or more. My taxes this year are pretty rekt and I'd rather not sell. I'm willing to sacrifice most/all of the upside in exchange for downside protection while I wait out the rest of the tax year or possibly these shares aging into long-term cap gains. Playing with OptionStrat, a 10p/12.5c collar looks decent. Room for \~6% gains with losses capped around \~15%. Not great but it's the best I can do, with the nearest strike being so far down from the current share price. Can enter the position (qty 11) for a small credit. A bull call spread at the same strikes appears to provide similar curves but it's an up-front cost of \~1500 to enter with the same quantity. Any thoughts on this trade?
Been watching ARLP for several years, still think it's about to print 20-30% over the next 2-3 months if you include it's dividends and the fact that winter is always it's best season
ARLP still looks strong for the next 2-3 months
I been shilling ARLP for a little while
ARLP is going to be free money for the next 2-4 months fyi. Winter is always their strongest season, and china has been low on coal.
I think ARLP is gonna be free money for next 3.5 months. 20-40% ish
guys if you want free money, buy ARLP and hold to January-February. Probably a free 20-40%. Coal situation for next 5 months is $$
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ARLP is another good one, safer si ce the company has a clean balance sheet. Less juice though for sure.
I would say that in general the expectation is that options are priced so that most investors won’t make outperforming returns in the long run. In this case, like the stock itself, but I currently see more upside in selling the $5 puts rather than buying the underlying... so I sell the $5 puts. What my comment was really getting at though is that there are options being bought/sold that would look like easy money if you only viewed them in isolation. Options aren’t bought/sold in isolation though, so these come up from time to time. My example was pointing out that I see an extremely small chance of ARLP getting anywhere near $2.50 before expiry, but I buy them anyway because it’s part of a larger strategy: the put credit spread. The seller of the put wouldn’t necessarily know this though.
To be fair, we don’t know have complete knowledge of what the other side of the transaction is doing. For example, I do a ton of put credit spreads on ARLP. It trades at $7.27 currently, so I sell $5 puts for around .30-.50 and buy $2.50 puts for 5¢. I know pretty much every $2.50 put is going to expire worthless, but buying them allows me to cut the needed collateral in half, so my percentage return is almost doubled.
ARLP... that’s all I’m saying
I got some. $ARLP. Trending up right now. I used to work there. Liquidating all my shares at a heavy loss. They screwed us.
These are some great points about uranium (which I think will mostly only affect $DNN since the others are precious metals/copper). I may take profits on $DNN and shift to the other ones which are more likely to run up with the commodities. I’m glad I could get an industry insider to comment! My one hesitation with $ARLP is that it seems to be only a coal producer, and with the Biden administration pushing hard for greener, cleaner energy, I just don’t foresee coal being a viable long term play. I’m sure coal demand will remain robust outside the US (especially in China where I think the vast majority of their power comes from coal), but $ARLP seems to be primarily an American producer, and I know China has ample coal reserves and production (and so wouldn’t need to import). What are your thoughts on it though? Do you know of any major catalysts to drive the price higher either long or short term?