AV

LASKler69

Also not sure how to assess this stock. Quarterly numbers were strong and future short/mid term growth appears to be very healthy. Biggest unknown is simply their future role in the booming AV industry. Are they going to control the demand side or will AV companies build their own customer interface. The market simply hates uncertainty otherwise the stock clearly would have to trade much higher.

MarthaJulietta

Your problem was that the AV overhang issue has not resolved and will not for some time.

Friendly-Visual5446

This logic is extremely flawed. Few clarifications: 1) You mention Waymo gaining market share in SF, sure, but why are uber bookings in SF growing/accelerating? (The answer is self driving increases TAM) 2) Ok, now “if AI were to get 10x better”, yes that would be great for self driving companies, inclusive of the 20+ companies uber is partnered with? Are you suggesting every self driving player will try to build their own ride hailing network? If so, that is an insane assumption. That scenario strongly points towards a consolidated network 3) Where profit comes from - there is so much wrong here. But to simplify, you’re missing: a) how much of North America profit comes from mobility vs. delivery b) incorrectly extrapolating average booking $s with profit (id recommend thinking more through *why* booking amounts would be higher, think through things like cost of labor, insurance, etc) c) Uber’s advertising revenue is growing rapidly - this is one of the main catalysts for improving margins 4) Lastly, on AVs, I’d recommend imagining an extreme scenario, where an AV player takes 50% share in any market. That would mean: (a) there must be enough cars to match peak demand times such that wait times aren’t an issue AND (b) be profitable. You’ll quickly realize that (a) vs. (b) is a major issue, enough cars to match peak demand also means those cars will sidle idle most of the time as demand is variable. Hopefully it starts to click that a hybrid network is the most likely outcome here

Garlic_Toast88

Pay attention to how waymo's roll out in Tokyo goes. They're the probably the friendliest AV market. Also waymo bet isn't solely to replace rideshare. They plan to eventually lease/sell the AV package to BMW etc...

MiddleAgedSponger

So you think all other major corporations cede the AV market to google? This is going to be such a huge industry, a sea change moment in world history. It's going to change the way we build cities and highways. It will change public transportation. This is so early innings, Waymo could be the Motorola flip phone for all we know. I agree there is some serious execution risk with uber, but thats why it is priced where it is. There are going to be a ton of winners (and losers) at many multiple layers of AV driving. Where does the money come for the scale up? How long does it take to scale up? How much does it cost to scale up? You could make the argument that Uber is going to be more profitable with AV driving. Does a Rivian have their now app when they have 20K cars. Do they roll out in cities where Waymo it saturated already? So many questions.

Laugh-Aggressive

They have not understood what "entertainment" is, it's meant to be cheap and brainrelaxing. Cinemas are doing the same thing and talk "the experience" as why they charge so much. Fuck that, it's a movie, not a religious experience, I wanna spend 2 hours and be entertained but that's all, and if the price is high that's all I'll remember and never come back and enjoy youtube instead because my money when into my own AV setup

dpatel211

Fire the AV guy

shadeland

> brand, It's a brand in decline. > IP Not much there anymore. They're a consumer electronics company that takes Sony sensors, a battery, a SoC, and puts it in a box. It's not trivial, but other companies have been doing it. They have a codec that no one really uses since it's not baked into hardware like ProRes, H265/HEVC, AV1, etc. >stabilization tech It's good, but so is DJIs and Insta's. Stabilization tech isn't all that hard. > rugged hardware Not difficult to do so no competitive advantage > and camera platform for AI/computer vision Sony makes the sensor, and a consumer action camera is not a good "AI sensor", whatever that means. > drones GoPro tried making drones and they fell out of the sky. They blew something like $300 million trying to make it work and they have nothing to show for it. I think they even sold their drone IP. > robotics They've absolutely nothing to do with robotics. > defense use cases Their terrible financials would preclude them from any military contracts I would imagine. They've no money for R&D. So outside of a bulk order for consumer non-certified action cameras they're more likely to make coffee makers than anything in defense. > more important as sensors, Sony makes the sensors. The biggest issue I think is Nick Woodman. He's a terrible CEO and he's seen GoPro lose 98% of shareholder value.