BTC

AllCapNoBrake

Me pointing at the BTC/MSTR charts

AllCapNoBrake

If you guys aren't always $horting BTC/MSTR/IBIT, I'm not sure why you prefer being poor.

kaybloc

Wasn’t Iran doing this anyway with BTC payments?

BANKSLAVE01

OK, now do gold sitting on the sidelines. How about BTC? Since when? Could the REAL ANSWER be "your mileage may vary"?

ProofByVerbosity

I believe it could have some impact, but we are talking volume and capex much larger than some people using a betting app. I haven't looked in a while but a few months back long BTC holders were still growing.

ProofByVerbosity

I'm still a believer in BTC, and ETH, but I never understood buying stock in a company that just buys BTC. Saylor himself would probably tell you to own the asset instead. He will either make Elon look like a Wendy's worker, or have to apply at Wendy's himself.

R3dFiveStandingBye

Send MSTR and BTC to zero, the TA wizards even showing us bearish divergence

LeavingLasVega

BTC should be lower though, kind of pissing me off. I want to buy MSTR at like $30

MarginCalledMom

Memory and BTC now move together

terminalguy007

The real tension in this situation is between what the model was optimized for and what the market demands. Strategy built a machine that paid dividends, and now the machine is being stress-tested. The mechanics are actually smart: you can't raise equity or reduce debt when BTC tanks, so selling BTC to cover preferreds is forced. But paying a 4% yield on something this volatile is a math problem, not a market strategy. The model will keep breaking until either BTC recovers 30%+ or they find cheaper financing.

Crazy_Donkies

No one cares about BTC. It's now detached from the market.

Jerikolol

futes opening in 5mins? BTC instant drill

Emilio___Molestevez

priced as a BTC proxy when it's actually way more than that

WSB-mods-are-

BTC is skyrocketing this weekend

Snowman33001

LOL bers sweating watching BTC

Independent-Eye9513

Why tf does Michael get to be a millionaire off literally just buying and selling BTC and he’s not even fucking good at it

Snowman33001

Bers watching BTC like it contains the answers to the universe.

terminalguy007

The core issue is that Strategy's model was never really about Bitcoin — it was about the premium to NAV. The flywheel worked like this: MSTR traded at a premium to its BTC holdings because investors valued Saylor's conviction, the leveraged exposure, and the scarcity of a corporate Bitcoin vehicle. That premium allowed the company to raise equity at above-NAV prices, use proceeds to buy more BTC, and grow the loop. The premium is now a discount. Issuing equity below NAV destroys value for existing shareholders, raising fresh debt when BTC is below average cost basis is expensive, and the preferred obligations — $750–800M annually — don't stop because the arithmetic flipped. Selling BTC to cover that shortfall is the only remaining path, and it's a structurally bearish dynamic: forced BTC sales timed to dividend schedules rather than market conditions, regardless of price. From a capital structure perspective, the common equity is in an increasingly precarious position. Preferred stockholders have priority on dividends and rank ahead of common in liquidation. If BTC remains below Strategy's average cost basis of \~$75,700 and the NAV discount persists, common equity holders bear the full dilution risk with limited upside protection. The bull case requires BTC appreciating fast enough to restore the NAV premium, which would allow fresh equity issuance to restart the model. The bear case is a slow erosion: preferred obligations continue, BTC sales accelerate to fund them, and common shareholders face a widening discount with no mechanism to close it except price appreciation in the underlying asset. This is a leveraged BTC bet with a preferred stack that has seniority and fixed obligations — not an operating business with improving fundamentals. Risk-reward on the common looks asymmetric in the wrong direction at current pricing.

mashem

Fair points. I largely think of 2020-21. The wallstreetsbets madness, BTC/memecoin spikes with Robinhood exposing those buyers to their stock exchange, and Elon's internet shit stirring.

Own-Recipe5908

Good for stocks since it's kinda hard to find another place to put your money. Bonds are fucked, gold/silver became memecoin. BTC is... BTC. Cash sucks because of inflation. So, your only choice is stocks, right?

Mysterious-Device-53

BTC

ting-ting_jahe

Be me, BTC bag holder. Buy BTCZ for 2x inverse leverage. BTC stops eating shit for the first time in months 🤦‍♂️

yatv

Idk where XMR’s price will be in 10 years, but as long as I’m alive I’ll support, use, and store it. I’ve always seen Monero as the only “true crypto” and one of the few exceptions to all the grifter garbage in this space. Even after being delisted on most CEXs, constant media FUD, and the overall negative stigma surrounding privacy coins (BTC had a similar rep during its early years too), Monero is still here and still being used. Initially I didn't even get into crypto for investment purposes…. I got into the space in 2016 (I was 11 yrs old) cuz PayPal kept limiting my accounts and freezing funds while I was selling certain digital goods / services online thru clearnet autoshops. Crypto was the only practical option for me to accept payment, and later when I moved to being a darknet vendor, all the serious onion and i2P markets moved toward Monero because BTC and other transparent chains became entirely traceable and centralized (ironic cuz most people to this day yap about BTC and other altcoins in general as being "decentralized" lol)... Software like Chainalysis and all the KYC regs that CEXs have to follow allows the feds to spy and trace any transactions of any crypto thru any network... except Monero's (hence why it's banned on most exchanges) Flash forward to today and most of the crypto scene is just garbage… everything is centralized, everything is traceable, the scene is just filled with gambling and grifters preying upon financially weak people… Monero remains decentralized, untraceable, fungible, and genuinely useful as digital cash. Monero basically inherited the role Bitcoin was originally supposed to have according to the whitepaper. I’m optimistic that eventually more of society will understand it.

No_Cod972

LOL why is BTC at $64k? The geniuses on WSB told me it was worthless...?

Wows_Nightly_News

Every occasion is a good time to murder BTC

Emilio___Molestevez

BTC up also means stocks up

Emilio___Molestevez

BTC down means stocks up

hallett21

What just caused the BTC pump and dump

StrifeRaZoR

It moves based on 15-minute event contracts now. When in the past have you ever seen BTC/USD on any chart NOT MOVE for more than a few seconds? As it approaches every 15min mark it gets eerily flat and quiet for 3-5mins before absolutely going batshit crazy in a direction right after they settle. Check the halfway points. 12:00 - 12:15 contracts will spike/reverse at 12:07/12:08. 12:15 - 12:30 contracts will do the same at 12:22/12:23. Fucking clockwork, man.

Status-Net2947

Allahu Akbar BTC ETH

Flat-Focus7966

BTC looking prime to breach 65K.....

AllCapNoBrake

Get them $horts on BTC/IBIT/MSTR, bois! https://preview.redd.it/0d4uxrc2vjch1.png?width=132&format=png&auto=webp&s=281d8859e16a6bb42382faa716a80e1f859df6b1

Thing1_Tokyo

All aboard the Grifter Express! Stops in BTC, Halliburton, AI and Guam!

farsightxr20

It's a compounding factor: inflation keeps stocks nominally high, meanwhile selling stocks means moving into worthless dollars or meme shit like gold/BTC. Stocks are just the least-bad asset right now.

TheInkDon1

You're right, and that's exactly what Claude said, that I was providing liquidity inside the MM's desired spread. I buy LEAPS and sell 2-4 week Calls against them (just the PMCC), so I do like doing price discovery on the Ask side and often getting better fills than Midpoint. Me also trading the Buy side was just a fun little experiment to see how far I could push them each way. It was fun selling-to-open for $1.20, then turning around and BTC'ing for 0.88 on the first round-trip (within minutes). Then selling for 1.25 and buying back for the same 0.88. Then 1.14 and 1.10, BTC'ing for 0.89. Then 1.12 to 0.89. Then 1.03 and 1.00 to 0.95. And then I stopped, because as you can see, the MM tightened up where they were willing to trade with me. That was over the course of less than an hour, and I scalped $32, then $37, $25, $21, $23, $8, and $5. So I made $146 for that hour of a fun experiment. You might be right about bag-holding later when trying to BTC those I sold, but worst-case I could let them go to expiration, where they're worth just their Intrinsic value. But mostly I've been able to close them for half, or roll out and up for a credit. Just a fun little experiment is all I'm saying, and I haven't done that since. But it's nice to have Claude (or something else) telling you what B-S fair value is.

Veshino99

Do we know why spy and BTC green andHOOD was red? Love the manipulation

trsx5

hahha have y'all seen this BTC Battlefield site? This is hilarious. [https://bitcoin-battlefield.pages.dev/](https://bitcoin-battlefield.pages.dev/) It shows real time battles of the price of fake money corn.

ting-ting_jahe

If BTC could tank over the weekend that’d be great thanks

Rez-_-

Right but I was literally waiting all day for that and looked back at history and saw MSTR and BTC have very rarely moved down in the second half of the day so I figured since expired today better to just cut bait

Rez-_-

So typical I sit around all day MSTR doesn’t give a shit what BTC does survives 4 attempts at lows before yesterday keeps going up and then per usual right when I’m out suddenly it goes down I’m so tired of it

Rez-_-

How did I know that the second I exited MSTR suddenly it would go down and BTC WOULD GO DOWN

Rez-_-

So I sit around all day watching MSTR get chance after chance after chance and not care what BTC does and then the second I exit all my shit it actually falls convincingly within 3 minutes

boose36

BTC $75k by end of July me thinks

WSB-mods-are-

Youd have better luck timing if BTC is going to go up or down on the 15min than timing this garbage

CleanUpstairs7593

Guess you haven’t got into BTC treasuries then

Rez-_-

Man get this bullshit off my screen fuck BTC fuck MSTR fuck this whole scam ass industry

Rez-_-

Let me guess cause I need it to go down BTC will last second recover the 15 minute candle so it can be @strength”

Rez-_-

MSTR barely acknowledging BTC sell off to new lows almost as if it’s fake move from the lows was the prevent it from making new lows when BTC did go down…this is so fucked up

Rez-_-

MSTR going up as BTC makes new lows dude get me the fuck out of here

Rez-_-

BTC literally falls 200 MSTR doesn’t budge cool

Rez-_-

Fresh lows on BTC so where does that put MSTR? Oh yeah still at a high from the low because of course it is

Rez-_-

So MSTR goes up 30 cents when BTC goes up 10 dollars but when BTC goes down 50 MSTR doesn’t even go down .08 cents got it

Rez-_-

How kind of BTC to create a $100 range for 2 hours as MSTR was about to be at new lows

Rez-_-

MSTR up 30% cents cause BTC up $10 dude this is fucking hell

Rez-_-

Really impressive how BTC has managed to stay straddled in a 100$ range as soon as MSTR got to a vulnerable position of being lower than yesterdays close

Status-Net2947

Proud to be a BTC investor

Rez-_-

Hell yeah nice keep throwing a 20$ bid up on BTC every time it starts to fall

Rez-_-

How does MSTR tick for tick still continue to know what BTC is gonna do before it does it

Rez-_-

Impressive that MSTR knew at 11:43 BTC wasn’t going to make new lows but BTC didn’t know until 12:04

Slight_Bet660

First because it’s a meme stock. If sentiment turns and it gets pumped to all-time highs then shorting it would get you a 1200% loss and a likely margin call. In contrast, if it traded down to its book value then you would be picking up roughing a roughly 50% gain. Risk to reward for shorting isn’t very good. Second, it is sitting on a sizable stockpile of BTC, ETH, etc. if the crypto market turns due to the CLARITY Act passing, due to the fed engaging in QE, due to accelerating adoption, etc., then DJT will trade up along with the broader BTC/crypto market. That isn’t a problem if you want to be short on the crypto markets, but given how volatile upswings in those are, there are many who do not want to take that risk. I have no position either way, but if you are going to play the short side you are probably better off buying puts to limit your downside exposure.

Rez-_-

MSTR up 1.5% from lows because BTC is up $90

Rez-_-

God here we fucking go man the purposeful stalling so nothing is allowed to happen for 4 more hours on MSTR and BTC

Rez-_-

Everytime BTC or MSTR starts to fall it gets this instant injection of like .03% to try and prop it up or create something new to take more time

Rez-_-

MSTR up 1% because BTC went up $60 while the day slowly fades away and my puts lose more time that expire today. this is my version of hell

Rez-_-

Yeah that’s right you whores pump BTC and MSTR in the last minutes to kill all my hope

Rez-_-

They sure don’t make it feel like it. Apparently it’s a hot commodity that leads BTC and catches a bid at the end of 15 minute and 1 hour time markers

Rez-_-

Come on you shameless piece of shit show me your fuckery to save MSTR and BTC candles on timeframes you losers

Rez-_-

So excited for the fuckery on MSTR and BTC to save the 1hr 4hr and 15 minute so that we can’t fall. This shit is pathetic man it’s so gd deliberate like suddenly btc just levitates right at where they dumped MSTR into close yesterday and can’t go any lower? After a stupid fucking 5% gap like fuck off man

Rez-_-

BTC up $60? Launch MSTR up 30-40 cents. BTC sells it off? MSTR unbothered. BTC back up? MSTR up. The games these people play to not let me win are just unbelievable

Rez-_-

Here we go back to the oops my position starts to look beneficial and a fall is showing likely let’s throw the fucking kitchen sink at the bid to steal more time. MSTR leading BTC again staying alive

shawwwwwwwwwwwwwn

i never understand why don't people just buy BTC instead of MSTR

Rez-_-

I genuinely will never trade options again if BTC can please just drop and take MSTR to like 88$

Rez-_-

Ahh what do you know MSTR leading BTC again when it’s in a position of vulnerability so crazy!

Rez-_-

I clean up way too much if they just let MSTR and BTC fall rest of the day so clearly we are getting everything and the kitchen sink thrown at those to save the MAs so that can’t happen

Rez-_-

How convenient that flash crash managed to take the SPY and BTC right to hourly and 15 minute candle MAs and recover right at the end of each time period to show “strength” and now it’s gonna be some bullshit to recover the entire hourly flash crash which they did on purpose

Rez-_-

Can we please stop fucking jolting MSTR up 20-30cents just because BTC goes up $40

Rez-_-

What do you know MSTR filling that bullshit fake gap up and the BTC run up and MSTR gap fill was just enough to make sure I don’t maximize in profit on this and now spy back in territory where it can stall the move and chop around to screw late shorters

Rez-_-

More manipulation whatever happened was intentionally right at a fresh hourly so it can paint a strong looking recovery market. Gotta be fucking kidding me man Mstr and BTC just immediate recoveries this shit is all so fucked I didn’t even have 30 seconds to do anything

Rez-_-

lol BTC and MSTR barely budging on a .63% flash dump that’s just gonna magically retrace cause it would have been too beneficial for my positions. And too many people were likely already short

Rez-_-

So so cool man MSTR sells for 12 out of the 15 minutes gets near my strike and then in the last 2 minutes of the hourly candle closing goes up .6% cause BTC goes up $60 to make this harder and burn more time

Rez-_-

Oh you’re short a stock that all they do is dilute and buy BTC? We aren’t gonna go down when BTC goes down but we are gonna up even when it goes up

Rez-_-

Love how when I short MSTR it leads BTC

Veshino99

Fr BTC Spy up and it dumps, 0 sense seems calculated af, last chance to buy low before moon maybe idk

Veshino99

SPY BTC PUMP= HOOD Dump who would have known

RJ5R

"Why selling BTC at a -50% loss could be a good thing". - Michael Saylor

TreGet234

BTC is so annoying. Just do the cycle low already and let me buy at 40k.

Emilio___Molestevez

BTC skiing $HOOD diving $MSTR... mooning?

Rez-_-

Also hell yeah pumped BTC just enough overnight to make my MSTR puts that were realistic completely unrealistic needing a total miracle—classic

Rez-_-

ES still going up now gonna get 10 chances at the same resistance while BTC continues to fall just to fucking get me on full tilt

Rez-_-

Sure let’s make it 9 tries for ES at the same resistance while BTC keeps going down from where I got liqd in the same hour love this shit.

Rez-_-

You can literally see it on the charts. 8:30am I give up on BTC after getting liqd on the explosion up and pivot to shorting ES instead

Rez-_-

That’s right BTC keep going down from where you liqd me while I’m stuck getting fucking teased by ES refusing to go lower than my entry W

Rez-_-

It’s so fucking dumb I’ve done it so many times if I kept throwing money at BTC short after getting liq’d it’d just keep climbing and then when I don’t it goes down. So I Move to ES and suddenly it’s not allowed to go below my entry w/ a giga bid before markets even open

Rez-_-

Cool man giga is on ES the second I short and BTC down only since I got liqd an hour ago and gave up

Rez-_-

lol where I got liquidated on BTC and pivoted to ES really gonna mark BTC high yet ES gonna keep grinding higher… always worst case scenario

Rez-_-

Short BTC? Explosion climb up to liquidation stop then immediate get convinced that’s bullshit stop playing so go and short ES instead and that decides to now grind higher as BTC moves down cools off and my liquidation marks the high still. Can’t make this shit up

Rez-_-

Then because BTC plays games I go and short ES and then BTC goes down while ES squeezes more like you just can’t make this shit up

Rez-_-

On one hand I appreciate the gap up overnight on MSTR to totally even remove the slight bit of hope that my yolo could workout — on the other it’s complete fucking bullshit cause buying it you are asking to get diluted and BTC is barely up but sure go right ahead sell button vanishes if I’m short anything apparently

Snowman33001

BTC bers questioning their thesis right meow.

BearContra

Just took a bet that BTC is going to dump back to 62k before tomorrow. Easiest money I will ever make.