CAPEX

Akrylicus

AI is all about insane CAPEX costs. As a PC Gamer I am glad I built my new PC 4 months ago, ram and GPU prices are going to be rough for a long time.

PatientAd9394

Zuck better reduce CAPEX

Fantastic_Honey_4532

Dude, your analysis is missing the most critical factor: REALITY. ​Let’s fact-check your points: ​1. Fuel (The Elephant in the Room): You ignored the biggest bottleneck. Oklo needs HALEU. Where are they getting it? Russia? The U.S. supply chain for HALEU is years away. No fuel = No power in 2027. IMSR uses Standard LEU. The supply chain already exists globally. Terrestrial Energy can fuel their reactors TODAY. Oklo is buying a Ferrari without gas stations. ​2. Regulatory Track Record: Oklo’s application was denied by the NRC before. They are starting over. Terrestrial Energy (IMSR) already has its Principal Design Criteria (PDC) approved by the NRC (Standard Review Plan). They are moving straight to the Construction Permit (CP) with a regulatory path that actually works. ​3. "Proven" Tech? You say Oklo is "proven"? Their design relies on liquid metal fast reactors which have a history of complex maintenance issues. IMSR is based on MSR tech proven at ORNL, but modernized. Plus, IMSR produces High-Temperature Heat (Industrial Heat), not just electricity. This opens up markets for hydrogen, ammonia, and desalination that Oklo can’t touch. ​4. Business Model: "Only selling designs" is a feature, not a bug. It’s called Capital Efficiency. IMSR is the "ARM of Nuclear" — licensing tech to massive operators like OPG or DL E&C. Oklo trying to build, own, and operate everything (Utility model) is a massive CAPEX trap. Good luck burning that $2.3B when delays happen (and they will). ​5. 2027 Deployment? Don't make me laugh. Without HALEU and a finalized NRC license, 2027 is a pipe dream. IMSR's early 2030s target is realistic and backed by actual industrial partners, not just hype. ​Stop looking at the hype and start looking at the physics and supply chain. IMSR is the real industrial solution.

Sick0h

MSFT/GOOG/META/AMZN could all announce doubling CAPEX for NVDA chips and NVDA would still go to 189-190 before noon and then start fading

my_wing

I honestly don't get what people like you expected from Intel's earning. my background, I am a Chartered Accountant, I audit and / or write Annual Report for a living. Intel does have a lot of growth, it still command a 80% plus laptop market CPU, that is 4 times more than AMD, Apple and Qualcomm combine. They might have a very large marketing team, so they are not that profitable, but they sell CPU like pancakes, while AMD is sell like an old lady. Intel made laptop is some of the most preferred amongst Business and Government, is become a habit and they don't look at anything but Intel (even they are also X86 like AMD), let give you an example of a senior accountant working in the Australian Government (my ex-boss), he would love to have the 5G surface laptop, he knows that I am a CISA (with [B.Sc](http://B.Sc) Comp Sci) as well, so he asked me what do you think, I then say it is ARM, and he just like OIC sorry no no then. I met hundreds (if not thousands) of accountant out there, they are the one controlling your company CAPEX budget (CFO, FC and alike), and guess what if you walk into a COSTCO today, you see AS400, you walk into a bank like HSBC and ANZ, you see AS400, this is an area that backward compatibility, and if that is the company I work for and the marketing lady ask me nicely can I have a MAC, I will say NO, Windows Intel Laptop just work as good, this is not 1980, Adobe work great if not better in Windows and not MAC, I do want to re-purpose the machine after useful life, I can't do it with a MAC or it is NO. As accountant, I know a lot of them can't leave Intel / X86, things like SAP ECC, they still want it even SAP is punishing them for keeping it, they just ask a bigger budget and stay on ECC, just like they stay on with AS400. period. How many PC Gamers buys in total, and how many PC will company like PwC (professional service), ZF (big but not listed) ... S&P 500 will buy in total, sorry, no growth ha ha. that is a joke. Therefore for people out there, please understand I don't think Intel needed an external customer for foundry, Let just give you an Example, do SK Hynix, Micron, Texas Instruments have foundry customer, I did not see any, with a 80% laptop market alone will have a much higher Die Area output then any of the 3 companies I listed up there and they don't have external customer for their foundries. So why Intel needed an external foundry to survive ??? Do you think SK Hynix CAPEX is less than TSMC, no no no this is joking. The CEOs after Paul until Pat is bad, they drove the company down, but Pat was really great the Panther Lake, 18A, Clearwater Forest ... perform is what his vision. I think what Intel did to him is very unfair, including Larrabee.

Medium-Flan4717

I disagree with this post. I hold a long position in ASML, and it's clear we view the company's valuation very differently. ASML isn't your typical industrial company where you can simply track order inflows and outflows on a linear basis. This is primarily because they rely on a few key customers: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung. Furthermore, interpreting their income statement on a monthly or quarterly basis is difficult because their machines take months to build. Under IFRS standards, these are only recognized as revenue upon delivery, which naturally leads to a very lumpy and uneven income statement. What we already know ahead of Q4 is that TSMC has reported a necessary increase in CAPEX to $52–56 billion to meet future demand, which will be strongly reflected in ASML’s order book. Additionally, Intel has publicly stated their ambition to be 'first on' with High-NA EUV. With a single machine costing just under $400 million, these orders are worth their weight in gold. Another point many have overlooked—but which is now a reality—is the demand for DRAM. For a long time, RAM manufacturers weren't considered a major revenue driver, but that has changed. With RAM prices skyrocketing, these suppliers must also invest in EUV and DUV systems. Finally, perhaps the strongest driver for ASML today is their service business. As the order book shifts toward EUV, this becomes even more significant because no one else is capable of servicing these machines. With service growing at 25% and machine production at approximately 12% long-term, I’d much rather hold a position with them than against them. But of course, no one has the crystal ball.

_hiddenscout

It will at some point. I mean we had had some a correction like a year ago. SPY was down like 18% from Feb 19 to April 8. QQQ was technically a bear market during that time. I do think at some point in the near future we will get a CAPEX cut announcement from one the hyper scales that are going to whack a lot of names. However, I think people holding the non profitable high beta stuff are going to be in for a fun ride when that happens.

drt0

Maybe not default, but what happens if they don't follow through on the majority of all their CAPEX plans (what is it now 1.5T?)

NASMAG13

Didn't he eat all his CAPEX in Q4 earnings?

_hiddenscout

Few things. For one, just calling out that the headline you posted doesn't fully align with what Nadella thinks. Around the bubble idea, no idea. I think there are pockets are parts of the market that are much more risk of a bubble than the whole thing. Like the nuclear/quantum names that make no revenue and keep trading up are way more analogous to the dotcom era. Valuations where way more stretched. I think the most likely thing that is going to happen in the short to near future, will be some of the megacap cutting back on CAPEX spend for the data centers, which will probably crush a lot of the high beta non profitable names.

Plus-Professional-84

I agree with you with one caveat: He never said he had a clue about what is going to happen. He just explains that productivity is up thanks to CAPEX in digital transformation. What that means is legacy systems are being updated. That is, in his opinion the leading contributor to productivity growth, not gen AI. He doesn’t dismiss the progress of gen ai, he says that productivity outcomes are currently situational (ie linked to certain jobs like software engineers and industries loke call centers). He is not explaining what could happen. He explains what has happened

Singapore-Finance

1 - CEO Diane has explicitly said in interviews no dilution for at least 3 years and they want to go with a starter mine first to pay for expensive CAPEX later. If she breaks this promise I would probably sell out all immediately as it shows a lack of credibility long term. 2 - Barrick and their massive roasters are next door so they could do a short-term tolling agreement on the high grade for some instant cash flow, Barrick needs high grade gold too for their expensive roasters to be economical. Their sulfides are geological and geographically identical so easy plug-in. The technical report coming out end of Q1 will probably have the specifics.

GlobalResolution77

Bought a few today also at 368. Think they're undervalued on a forward basis. **Forward P/E at \~11** \- Ridiculous cheap. Sector avg sits at 20x-25x. Earnings expected to grow over 100% year-over-year + management has confirmed 2025 and 2026 HBM supply is already "sold out." **Enterprise Value-to-Cash Flow from Operations (EV/CFO) at 10x-12x** \- They´re Cash-Cow with no debt. Micron funds its massive CAPEX entirely from internal cash flows that protects the balance sheet during the aggressive expansion. **Price-to-Book Value at 6x-7x** (Historically high but viewed alongside Return on Equity. Projected to achieve ROE in the 40-50% range for FY2026 i think is appropriate). Micron's assets are no longer just commodity fab equipment. They now include high-barrier-to-entry HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production lines with significantly higher margins than traditional DRAM. No wonder they are the largest holding of Xtrackers MSCI World Value UCITS ETF - IE00BL25JM42

TheMarketsWithMilan

Personally I don't think this downtrend is finished just yet. Trump just announced more tariffs on European countries over Greenland, so I suspect the markets may sell off further next week as this was not anticipated or priced in. I'm hoping to get in closer to $500-$550 personally (which is also a 75% fib retracement of April lows to August highs). Considering META warned about CAPEX increasing in 2026, the the stock is likely correcting for a decline in earnings this year, and potentially lower earnings growth next year. So, I suppose it could be a buy the news event if CAPEX and future CAPEX projections aren't as bad as predicted, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the entire market sees a larger correction over both a bigger than anticipated increase in CAPEX by the major companies (hurting earnings), and Trump's new tariffs kicking in from February and then June. Just my 2 cents.

Singapore-Finance

second part of my hycroft call The imminent end-game roadmap for Hycroft $HYMC is near and almost fully de-risked. What Eric Sprott's 4M share warrant exercise + 200,000 open market buy signifies (my guess):Key 1) Eric hates CAPEX. 2) He's seen the cores/drill visuals → He knows a high-grade starter mine is 100% viable. There won't be a $1.5bn dilution round to build a POX or roasting facility.Once the underground starter mine is built, Nevada Gold Mines (Barrick) is down the road. Their roasters/facilities are stuck with low-grade ore; they're in dire need of high-grade ore. These facilities are expensive to run and not being at full grade is costly. Hycroft enters a tolling agreement with Barrick and starts delivering high-grade ore, earning several hundred million a year. The now de-risked project + cash flow positive + critical mineral resource means financing is easier/less [dilutive.At](http://dilutive.At) some point, Barrick will be forced to bid to keep their roasters fed. Eric Sprott, now over 40% shareholder, is the gatekeeper—he will hold out for a premium offer as he said. A debt-free and cash flow positive Hycroft can hold out indefinitely / go alone if need be.A premium takeover is the end game. All this will be confirmed once the upcoming MRE (maybe Tuesday after MLK) puts into writing that the high grade is there and justifies an underground starter mine.If you look at Diane's recent interviews across Crux Investor and Catt Calls, the roadmap is already laid out and discussed in detail. The only missing piece is the PDF report for the public.Eric's warrant exercise + open market buying is a 4 standard deviation conviction move. To him and his position, this PDF is all but de-risked, the high-grade starter mine is all but confirmed—no CAPEX/dilution wall coming. The market is just waiting for a PDF press release—a very high asymmetrical bet for insiders vs. public. Hycroft re-rates and awaits a premium takeover bid by end 2026.

IslandExact429

We’ll all look back and ask ourselves “where did we go wrong” Im a bull. I don’t even think bears should be shamed These are absolutely retarded times. 🥭 might as well bribe the MMs to not dump it. No one has any clue where we’re going since October & yes CAPEX is legit But capex doesn’t pay the bill. Just moves money around

_hiddenscout

Probably TSMC earnings and report around CAPEX spend. 

KittyLover-7

Meta would need a 7% er move to get back to 660s lol And that ain’t happening, street is done with the stock and it’s CAPEX

KittyLover-7

Might just take the loss on meta, street is not going to give a fuck about a beat and raise when zuck can’t answer to CAPEX

CardiologistLarge523

90% of regards on WSB think CAPEX is an anti-lying prescription medication

KittyLover-7

If meta tanked after previous ER because of CAPEX with nothing to show for it, why would this earnings be any different?

NomSaneMan

Yeah, pretty unlikely. I think you mean rubin (the newest NVDA chips) trained models though. Here’s the issue. NVDA keeps deploying new chips in less than a year every year. These chips are the “best” in general at every task, but not the best at each individual task. To get a chip that is tailored to an individual task, you need custom ASICS style chips (AVGO, MRVL) which it seems most data centers are beginning to deploy or have been using for a while (GOOG, AMZN, etc.). Obviously this does not cut NVDA’s demand though, because you still want the all purpose chips too for parts of your data center that need it. The problem though, is that these data centers are pricing in using the chips that they bought for 6 YEARS…. That’s a long fucking time…. So what’s possible given this model? 1. People start buying less chips (less demand) saying that have enough for the remaining 6 years that they have priced into their earnings and the real bottleneck is memory and power. 2. People buy the newest and greatest chips EVERY TIME there is a new set, and they re-negotiate those previous earnings (likely causing the early priced in CAPEX to make the PE and forward PE inflate - higher valuation of stocks)… Either is not good. The point is though, the foundation models won’t just be trained on rubin. None of them to my knowledge are just trained on a single chip set anyway. Thus no one knows how Gemini or chatGPT will do in the future. All we know is the trend of performance from the past and right now says Gemini is running away in performance

Petit_Nicolas1964

My advice is to keep cool and not to jump in and out of stocks too often. I bought Meta in 2021, it lost 70% in 2022 and was at 180% of my buying price a couple of years later. Micron is different as it is cyclical, but CAPEX spending for data centers is not slowing down, demand for memory is very high and pricing power enormous. Micron‘s fwd PEG ratio is at 0.2, which is really cheap, due to the crazy growth probably cheaper than the stock was 6 months ago. It‘s a 3 x for me and I will sell when first signs of growth slowing down and margins contracting occur. I don‘t look at how much I made with a stock, I make my decision based on valuation.

Citizen_of_Danksburg

OKLO is actively building its first reactors literally right now. It’s not smart or some “gotcha!” to say “they are pre-revenue and pre-product. Meme stock status confirmed.” OKLO is where RKLB was like, 2-3 years ago maybe. You’re just looking at OKLO (and possibly other businesses like it in structure) wrong because you’re applying traditional or like, late-stage expectations to a newer company. They have high up-front CAPEX but they have a design, are actively building the reactors, and have their fuel recycling plant at Oak Ridge in the works right now. You should check out my long comment I made and also look at the AMA on r/OKLOstock that Caroline and Jacob DeWitte hosted. You may actually learn something. OKLO is such a solid fucking company and way better off than NuScale, and CERTAINLY Nano Nuclear — that company is a fucking dumpster fire. OKLO has a ton of contracts and interest for good reason.

_hiddenscout

Pfft anytime! Yeah, I view this a place where we can help each other make money. I always try to share anything I'm looking into. Always do your own DD of course. I could be wrong, but that's my big fear with some of these names, is that a CAPEX cut will come in the near future. Still think long term we are great, just when/if that happens, a lot of names are going to get whacked.

_hiddenscout

As someone who has exposure to the theme, I'm not looking forward to the day when CAPEX cut happens. When deepseek news came out like last year, a lot of stuff went down like 40%. Even with the cooling news, names in the cooling space got whacked. Luckily, I was in the names before OpenAI, so my cost basis is good, but there will be a day sometime in the future where there is CAPEX cut is coming.

Fit_Translator_6412

They announced an update to the 2022 FID figures on January 2nd to reflect 2026 costs and current CAPEX estimates. The jump from the initial assessment of $419.4M in 2022 to $600M raised a few eyebrows this year, causing a bit of a shakeout. Realistically, though, Final Investment Decisions typically come in higher than initial assessments, so I’m guessing the market was being a little dramatic. The good news is that they are hitting their deadlines. Today, they announced that their flagship Phoenix Uranium mine site just completed a transmission line build-out with SaskPower (01/08/2026). Denison is NOT playing around. That flagship construction scheduled for early 2026 looks like it's staying close to its deadline, and they are handling the regulatory side nicely. People may just be putting a snooze button on this. Cates has some really smart people threading the needle here.

KittyLover-7

I dunno man, ai trade is exhausted, no answer for CAPEX concerns, this might sell off more

ROSC00

Read Jim Cramer's How to Make Money in Any market. The buy a CNBC subscription and watch Lunchtime, Fast Money Mad money until all key concepts become as second nature as tire pressure. 2 years later you become proactive, before a quarterly report or a Fed meeting. If you do not know that rates can tank the markets, you should be either in a guided approach, or an ETF centric approach. And diversified! 2020 Black Monday I was in cash waiting for COVID to hit, and got 70 pct return yty until Liberation Day. I started as you did, 26 to 30 lost 70% here 90% there, I WAS CLUELESS. I had one Sci and Tech Mutual Fund that got me 30% YTY and that at least game me my house down payment. But I was clueless and when you are active on the market, and clueless, that is my assessment of gambling. And worse, not knowing gambling. For example, while people chased NVDA past year, I got out of it summertime after 1000% return, and went for Google, and memory, MU SDSK etc. I saw the rotation before it happened. Analysts warned. Went 25% in Banks and 4% returns, and they are doing exceptionally well. Bought 10% in Gold platinum silver. So diversification is the absolute key towards this. Diversification is also cash for example a High Savings 3% account is cash once sold. A LOW VOLATILITY ETF is cash once sold And then, depends what crashes. Zoom crashed and never recovered. Then there is a Magical Investing Year Stocks Cramer listed (the quantum cryptos that did 300% in days and 95% drops). No more than 2% of your portfolio. For solid companies, buying the dip is key. But if you buy AI stocks crashing because the market saturated with AI CAPEX and the ROI is negative, buying that dip is like catching a falling japanese knife. If for example PRC really blockades TWN, you would better be in precious metals and cash, only these two. and defence stocks. Everything else plummets until the crisis is resolved. I know I know why hold Citi and Manulife growing at 30% per year / 360 days, when you get MU at 14% jumps? Well, if you have 100k on MFC and it is up 5%, so 105,000$, and you get that 4,000$ worth of dividend shares (so 80 shares payout). That is 109,000 USD in the green is now 9 pct up while a 300,000$ worth of tech stocks are -25%. You can cash out 9000$ and your principal is intact! So understanding the math of compounding is key.

MarthaJulietta

I was reading some VITL releases last night 145M cash/securities 0 debt Spending 80-100M on CAPEX this year vs 10 last year but that is mostly finished They own both the land and the processing facilities in Missouri and their new location in Indiana Looking for 30% topline growth in 2026 Seems like a slam dunk trading at 22x with those types of growth numbers. Any additions will be for July options

Kindly-Artichoke6569

Nadella's pivot away from "slop" is a calculated defense of Microsoft's CAPEX-heavy valuation. It mirrors the 1980s rebrand of "junk bonds" to "high-yield" debt. If the market views generative output as a commodity filler rather than a cognitive asset, the justification for massive infrastructure spending vanishes. So, he's fighting to preserve the intellectual premium before commoditization takes hold.

DiscountAcrobatic356

On the plus side not spending a hundred billion in annual CAPEX or issuing debt for LLMs. Cue Dr Evil $1 million dollars! 

burnertaintlol

AWS is an absolute fucking monster. Amazon has been spending billions on CAPEX and has been flat-ish for a while. I think they’ll eventually go on a nice run, but that may not even be in 2026 as I don’t know shit about fuck.

salty0waldo

One of the big selling points for the large integrated names, is they are being better stewards of capital and reducing unnecessary CAPEX, so this whole situation is so conflicting lol. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to dump a lot of capital to get the wells back producing if the overall market will be this soft. Plus, it is 'dirty' and 'heavy' crude which has a lower upstream margin than that of sweet Permian crude. Sorta strange.

salty0waldo

Some of the moves don't make sense. Like, I don't think COP or XOM are going to enter or really commit to anything in a meaningful way. But like, CVX already has assets there so they likely will be reclaiming those. Then a few service companies will benefit from the increased CAPEX like HAL and SLB. The CAPEX need is pretty massive from what the reports mention on the overall infrastructure.

bigmeatbag

Imagine thinking that US oil companies will want to spend the massive CAPEX required to extract and refine the most difficult type of heavy crude in one of the most unstable countries in the world that actually democratically voted for Chavez originally to kick out foreign companies from taking their natural resources all to further lower the price of oil and jeopardize their US shale interests.

pink_ego_box

You're totally right, in 10 years... It'll take a lot of time and CAPEX to go back to the production levels they used to have. Immediate impact will be that China now has to buy 800k barrels on the regular market instead of at a discount at Maduro's shop

Working-Guard-7848

CAPEX absolutely comes out of net.... it takes years, and I think current chips is 6 years to zero? R&D comes out at 100%. So a million dollars of capex would come out 1/6 at a time for the next 6 years My point was not to get into a discussion about accounting, it was to say; watch FCF... "profitable" is subjective, IMO. FCF is a way better metric to watch

Recent_Strength5643

CAPEX IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN NET INCOME !!!!! NET INCOME relates to OPEX

Kindly-Artichoke6569

The 745-mile range is a technical triumph, but Factorial's public listing reveals a shift in the capital cycle. Scaling solid-state production requires massive CAPEX that private markets won't carry alone. It's the 2020 SPAC wave revisited. So the real test isn't the mileage; it's surviving the capital-intensive bridge between a laboratory prototype and a profitable assembly line.

LoveManatee

Will writing doomposts be enough pay for the AI CAPEX?

LoveManatee

Outside of the US internet access is dirt cheap. In Thailand you can get 100 Mb/s for $12, in Germany for $28, in Armenia for $15, etc. ASTS will never have enough of a paying customer base if their market is anything other than Bumfuck, OH where your only other option is $190/mo ISDN. It will never be as cheap and easy on OPEX as land fiber optic. Bandwidth growth requires unbelievable CAPEX. The only selling point, just like with Starlink, is WOW LOOK SPACE INTERNET. Even my 15 yo understands it

c-u-in-da-ballpit

Pessimistic This massive infrastructure buildout is rapidly destroying the pricing power of the technology it’s meant to support. As compute has become more abundant, inference costs have dropped nearly 200x this year, turning frontier models into a low-margin commodity where open-source alternatives can erode any real moat While hyperscalers are projected to spend over $500 billion on CAPEX in 2026, the industry is facing a revenue gap of $2 trillion in new annual software sales to justify the investment—returns that simply do not exist today. Most AI earnings are currently circular, consisting of hardware vendors selling to cloud providers who are trapped in a game-theory-driven buildout, spending up to 50% of their revenue just to avoid falling behind. Add in the power constraints and the torrent of capable, low cost, open source models coming out of China and I just can’t see me singing ROI materializing

alloutofchewingum

Investopedia is your friend. You can find all definitions there. Basically net income accounts for all costs including depreciation for example. Operating free cash flow only looks at cash expenses, so it doesn't include depreciation. So a CAPEX heavy business might have positive cash flow but negative net income.

MackWheaton

“Wafer-level bonding and testing, passive alignment with embedded mux/de-mux, use of known good die - all reduce BOM cost, yield points, assembly and testing costs as well as required CAPEX investment.” Customer qualification is well underway. Instead of defending your post, maybe treat it like a trial run, take the data provided to do failure analysis. Or come back in a year and let’s see where things are. For now, I’ll treat your analysis with less credence than you do vetted contract manufacturing and await information provided by the company, along with multiple customers and partners who have obviously done an extensive amount of due diligence, testing and risk assessment of their own to validate their decisions to invest time, capital and resources.

_hiddenscout

Anyone here follow **STVN?** Came across them screening this morning, kind of an interesting name. This is what they do: >Stevanato Group S.p.A. engages in the design, production, and distribution of products and processes to provide solutions for biopharma and healthcare industries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America, and the Asia Pacific. >It operates through two segments, Biopharmaceutical and Diagnostic Solutions; and Engineering. The company offers drug containment solutions comprising pre-fillable syringes, cartridges, vials, and ampoules; in-vitro diagnostic solutions; drug delivery systems, including pen injectors, auto-injectors, and wearable injectors; diagnostic laboratory consumables; analytical and regulatory support services; medical devices; pharmaceutical visual inspection machines; assembling and packaging machines; glass forming machines; and after-sales services, such as spare parts and maintenance services. They have some exposure to GLP1s, but worry about the pill taking off. Kind of a smaller float name too. From a PE level, it's a bit high, but PEG is at 1.5, so if they can keep up the growth, it's somewhat a fair value price. [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d) Sounds like they are trying to expand more into the US, so CAPEX could weight down some of the FCF. [https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from](https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from) Here's the last ER press release: [https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/\_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06\_Stevanato\_Group\_Reports\_Revenue\_of\_303\_2\_Million\_171.pdf](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06_Stevanato_Group_Reports_Revenue_of_303_2_Million_171.pdf)

ptexpat

i was looking at AROC and they seem to have had heavy CAPEX in some of the recent quarters leading to low / -ve FCF in some of them. Were you able to get comfortable with the drivers of that? Also, just wondering whether you have looked at FTI?

Budget_Initiative740

Due to high CAPEX which will improve future capacity. Even if Ai buildout turns out to be a bubble, just reducing their CAPEX budget will bring FCF right back up as their OCF is relatively stable despite macro conditions

darahs

Their debt burden doesnt scare you? Its an overhang on their creditworthiness and borrowing cost in a very high CAPEX industry. The safe harbor of equipment does allow a decent bit of their future pipeline to claim full tax credit. Also I know many investors get turned off by all the non-GAAP metrics they present during earnings (cause GAAP EPS and such make them look far worse). The recent-ish move to fully self fund development is a big deal though.

Earnings_Yield

Finally someone with a brain. Net debt to EV is like 15%, net debt to EBITDA is around 4x and it has an investment grade BBB rated balance sheet.  People saying it will go bankrupt are truly regarded. Even if AI turns to complete shit and all current CAPEX generates zero revenue going forward they are going to survive.

Brawmethius

So I build pharma plants for a living. Just finished detailed costing for about 4MT/year of API for a commercial GLP. Cost to build that capacity is about 1 to 1.3 billion, with the differntially really being how much CAPEX gets shifted to OPEX costs. 4MT/year at highest dosage of ~15mg; is just shy of 270M doses of anti-fatty magic medicine. 1 data center CAPEX spend is then roughly 200 MT/yr production (and I mean realistically... we could get some more scale efficinecy) or 13.5B doses of anti-fatty juice. We could eliminate the fatties with 1 Data center budget, and walk away with 60%+ margin.

Nuvuser2025

I’m of the opinion that this recession, predicted since 2022 at least, has been papered over by CAPEX spending ramping up in 2023.  Not hiring, not wage growth.  We’ve helped to postpone the recession by the increased size of our wealthiest, continuing their consumption even in the face of 2024’s job slowdown, and 2025’s negative headline avalanche.   In fact, by the traditional measurement of “recession”, we may not even be close having one officially be “called”.  Demand from the consumer appears healthy, GDP well above absolute 0.   TLDR: I don’t think we can see recession be called in 2026.  In fact, we might not even have the correct math to call one now.

Phantasmalicious

Seems cheap :D? Wtf. Where are you going to charge those cars in NY? Drive to NJ and build out couple gigawatt infrastructure for them at a time when AI is eating up all the power it can get? The CAPEX costs are going to eat them alive. In order to scale up to Uber levels which is worth like 160 b, they need to spend \~125 billion in hardware alone. Not to mention that they don't drive in snow, rain or any type of adverse weather conditions.

Phantasmalicious

So, Uber does 11.27 billion trips per year and they are worth 160 b and Waymo with 10 million TOTAL is looking to get 100 b? They would need to spend between 100-150 billion in CAPEX alone to get the cars to even achieve that. Complete nonsense.

Strange-Ingenuity420

it’s not a perma bull market… it was a fundamental restructuring of global fiscal policies. We no longer rely on productivity to justify increased CAPEX. We rely on debt to bring productivity and we create more debt to inject more liquidity when needed. 2009 was a pivotal year. Crashes are not the same fundamentally. Bull runs are not the same fundamentally.

Fancy_Cattle_5914

My opinion is market makers killed the sector to buy cheaper. The AI buildout is very real and the use case is proven with revenue to back this up. In Q2 increased CAPEX spend on AI was the most bullish thing ever for companies. Now in Q4, it's bearish. Market makers fed us a narrative that the debt raised by these companies is a concern. Meanwhile, everything NBIS has is sold and they are taking on debt to build more so they can sell more... it makes zero sense, but sentiment around the AI trade has clearly flipped and it's likely by design.

95Daphne

Whatever they announce won't matter unless they erase the term CAPEX from their vocabulary. It'll be sold aggressively because the AI is ded trade is in style.

Otherwise-Coyote6950

Where are all those $NBIS bulls that were laughing when I sold $NBIS at $105 and $IREN at $58 to buy $RKLB $LUNR and $FLY? Space stocks have gone up a lot, those AI infrastructure stocks kept going down. Nobody is investing anymore in the AI bubble with the circular financing scam, Oracle is almost bankrupt (credit default swap on levels seen only during the 2008 financial crisis), OpenAI bankrupt, Coreweave insolvent, Nvidia with accounting fraud, Google TPU replacing GPU and now we also have the new trend of putting datacenters in space. Not to mention the dilution those AI infrastructure stocks will serve existing shareholders to finance the massive CAPEX...garbage stocks and they're rightly down and will keep going down as I predicted.

Extension_Dog_8511

After all of those AI researcher letters saying that theyre at an innovation standstill without additional CAPEX for new research are gonna TANK this market tomorrow

ReserveDrunkDriver

I understand the sentiment that corporations are bad, however, what you are saying is literally the opposite of what is true. The CHIPS Act was specifically for the Micron (MU) NY, ID, and VA manufacturing facilities to expand the US supply chain for memory. MU & the USA are working together to increase the supply of memory for the US, which will ultimately lower the cost for the American people as production expands to meet demand. The money was not just "taken" it was an investment in which the US government will recoup their investment via profit share after helping the American people with the memory shortage. The asshole move by the best/largest US memory company would be if they refused to expand CAPEX/production and just turned the FCF machine on to create the most shareholder value.

coconutconsidered

There are a bunch of factors aligning to cause this: 1) Memory production is an oligopoly with a huge moat. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron make the world’s memory. They have patents out the wazoo. Fabs cost 10s of billions of dollars and take 3+ years to build. China (CXMT) can produce DRAM but they aren’t allowed to have EUV so their capability is limited. 2) HBM has been the most profitable type of memory for these companies so they are focusing all CAPEX on making more. Hbm is difficult to make and requires 3X the capacity. 3) HBM demand double whammy. There are only a handful of companies that actually buy HBM and they are loaded with cash - for example, NVIDIA and Google. Both of these companies plan to produce more GPUs and TPUs in 2026 and their products will use way more memory. Google for example is converting from TPU v6 to v7 and going from 32GB per chip to 192 GB. By the way, they plan on producing twice as many also. NVIDIA’s Rubin GPU is jumping from 192 GB to 288 GB and their next gen after that is rumored to be at 1TB!!!! 3) Data centers also need servers - which need lots of memory. 4) People will keep buying products that use DRAM like smart phones, automobiles, Nintendo, etc. This is just the start of a memory supercycle that could last 4-5 years or more. Even if the AI frauds drop out of the game, demand will exceed capacity. Google is saying serving capacity must double every 6 months. Do you think Nvidia is slowing down anytime soon? The oligopoly is building new fabs that come online from 2027 to 2029 but I don’t think it will be enough.

LifeOk6872

I think OPEC has way less power today than what they did years back, nowadays they crave money and the margins are not the same, while Saudi is comfortable with a barrel of 20 USDs, Russia is not. To me the OPEC will crumble once Venezuela goes back in the market and Russia requires the oil machinery to start selling to recover from the war economy. I have nothing against SLB in fact I know for a fact they are doing everything they can to keep things running on the field, like reducing operational costs like crazy to keep things lean (at the cost of good people leaving) Genvia was supposed to have a revolutionary hydrogen breakthrough that has shown nothing, Geothermal, just a couple of projects, Carbon capture? De-prioritized, Litium for Panasonic JV? Still in baby steps, research centers are reducing CAPEX, and we all know that reduction in R&D is not a good sign. I don’t know maybe I am too pesimistic but I don’t see anything good in mid term, I wouldn’t be surprised if next year oil price is still low they will either freeze dividends or keep the layoffs and third party all of their functional operations (IT is getting outsourced and likely they will continue to reduce overhead unless prices go up) I feel the previous CEO was more money oriented even though he was well known for being a jackass, Olivier is the kind of guy that looks good in the pictures but the organization strategy is starting to shake. I feel in terms of energy, wind, nuclear and hydro are much safer bets, oil is not cool anymore and in my head SLB’s worldwide exposure will be their worst enemy, I see SLB as the next Blackberry, Nokia or Yahoo, big company that will just go out of fashion though you might very well say they are too big to fail which it’s completely correct as well. (This is my personal opinion not financial, insider nor economical advise in any way)

looool_k_libtard

Markets telling us to put money into dinosaurs that gain 4% a year instead of AI because oracle fucked up with CAPEX

False_Secret1108

Picture is becoming clearer. 2026 should have another -20% moment but the year will probably still end green. It is all about AI. Without AI capex spending, we would be in a recession right now. You have to ask yourself how sustainable is this spending? Because once these guys start cutting CAPEX, we will see panic

Thefellowang

ORCL still has a positive operating cash flow and investment grade bond ratings - though I think a rating cut is coming. The company just needs to take more measured pace in CAPEX.

MaterialGuy007

GS another one promising increased CAPEX

Thefellowang

Cash on hand $19B Next 6 month operating cash flow $12B (based on Last 6 month operating cash flow $10B) Next 6 month CAPEX $30B (Last 6 month $20B, fiscal year pla $50B) $19+$12-$30=$1 ORCL can either borrow more or cut CAPEX, but it already has $100B debt.

Thefellowang

Based on ORCL's CAPEX plan, by the middle of 2026 it will run out of cash COMPLETELY.

IllustriousLetter898

Now your talking about CAPEX for Whatapp, Instagram, Facebook, Realty Labs.

95Daphne

Apparently CAPEX related, but I was just searching myself. Didn't think we'd get there, but this AVGO move is now as bad, if not even WORSE than ORCL's was. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a 10%+ reversal. Like I said. Expect a big fat 0 from tech for December it looks like.

IllustriousLetter898

Considering META has to train and build Avocado and maintain LLAM, isn’t there CAPEX going over 100 billion? Stuck on the 200 day with institutions shoveling cash as fast as it drops. Anyone see a play?

Quiet_Deer_4887

Which doesn't change CAPEX environment or lack of AI profitability at all. The one thing everybody wants to quietly ignore lol.

ThouOne

NBIS 700% Y/Y growth to 7B-9B ARR, $5B cash to spend on CAPEX, 4 subsidiaries & one of which has the potential to become bigger than the parent company (Avride), lowest analyst rating 13% from current prices with an average of $163. But of course, whatever wall street regards say.

_hiddenscout

Around the free cash flow, it's good to look into why when you see huge jumps. I don't really follow the company too closely, but they did cut some CAPEX as well could be a timing thing of selling more cars because of the timing of the end of the tax credits. Both F and GM also sold more cars than normal around that quarter. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-best-sales-quarter-ever-130838579.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-best-sales-quarter-ever-130838579.html)

DiscountAcrobatic356

After a trillion or so in CAPEX they all converge to about the same. No one wins. 

taiwansteez

That’s so interesting I came to the opposite conclusion and see AI as a net threat to their businesses. I agree with what you’re saying about the value of unique data sets for AI models, but I guess my issue is that I don’t see how any of their data is particularly unique. Even in the case that it is super unique the question becomes: Do they have strong enough balance sheets to compete with the mega caps who have endless free cash flow? Will they be able to weather all the CAPEX required to develop their own models? Or are they better off just licensing the data? In any case all these decisions have to be made just be to defend their existing market share let alone worry about growth. I do think that selling on both companies feels overextended and they are probably good for tactical short term longs but long term I’m still dubious of them being growth companies.

Otherwise-Coyote6950

I finally sold that fucking garbage of $NBIS Fuck off to the idiots that made me buy it It won't go anywhere, every rebound is quickly sold off because people are trying to dump it as soon as possible Huge CAPEX so they'll have to dilute a lot in the future, it's correlated to NVDA which is going nowhere lately because of AI bubble and their accounting fraud. OpenAI is blowing up and going bankrupt, Oracle CDS are almost at 2008 levels so they're done, CoreWeave is a fraud, more and more competition from bitcoin miners that are turning to AI infrastructure providers, they'll unprofitable for many years, Google is using TPU so the GPU monopoly is ending, Burry has very convincingly laid out why AI is in a bubble and the US Government has said they won't bail out anybody No wonder the stock has gone down in the last month, AI infrastructure plays are done. Everybody is trying to get out. Fuck NBIS and fuck the pumpers on here and X that are hyping that trash to get out of their position

HugeDramatic

Been doing some more analysis on this… After the debt repayment, Trulieve will have $90M cash left on their balance sheet. The interest expense savings for 2026 is roughly $29M. If the IRS comes knocking for their $616M 280E tax debt in 2026, Trulieve will have less cash on hand for the IRS to immediately demand to satisfy that debt. It’s an interesting strategy… if you owe the IRS a few million that’s your problem, if you owe $616M that’s the IRS’s problem. I feel like Trulieve is hedging more than one risk by paying off their debt early. Their cash flow is very strong with some of the highest margins in the sector, $90M is more than enough to fund CAPEX, and the $29M of interest savings can simply be redirected to start paying the IRS if they lose their 280E legal battle. Overall, I like what they are doing… it gives me more confidence that they can survive and continue to grow in 2026 even without rescheduling or tax reform.

Front-Nectarine4951

More like Announce new technology —> stock pop Cut CAPEX spending—> Stock pop

toydan

can see how that line is drawn less metaverse and to continue on ai CAPEX tbh bullish

not_my_monkeys_

I’m sorry, but that simply isn’t true. LLM’s are fancy autocompletes with a serious hallucination problem that is likely fundamentally unsolvable. Yes, they are a cool technology, yes they certainly have some use cases that add value to human labor. But claiming that they constitute AGI is nonsense. We are nowhere close to being able to plug an LLM into the chair of the average white collar worker and have it perform the equivalent job. And until that is a reality, there is no justifying the trillion+ CAPEX spend that has been committed to AI so far, nor the label “AGI”.

KittyLover-7

Someone just asked in a meeting how much energy is used when we use co pilot Only if you knew Katie, only if you knew the CAPEX we’re throwing at this

Fragrant_Equal_2577

TSMC is a manufacturing services company in an extremely CAPEX intensive industry. They don‘t design own products. They provide part of the enabling technologies for the product companies. The value creation ladder: 0.1x : Raw silicon wafer vendors 1x : Foundry - TSMC 10x: semiconductor product company (ASSP) - AMD 100x system company >1000x hyperscalers - Google NVIDIA is somewhere between a Semiconductor product and a systems company - they have their data center system solution for AI and HPC needed by the hyperscalers. NVIDIAs market valuation today is in the hyperscaler bucket. This sounds a bit high based on their location in the value chain.

Due-Swimmer-5888

Oracle is interesting because of the stock price how much volatility it’s had. It announced an OpenAI deal and soared 40% then got brought back down to earth. AI CAPEX is starting to get people to question these companies in my opinion. Too much debt is getting people nervous and hundreds of billions in commitments are spooking retail and institutional investors.

Yogurt_Up_My_Nose

what if AI just started investing in itself and that's why these companies CAPEX is so high because they can't stop it.

Distinct-Tour5012

GOTTEM yeah these dumb poors AI is fucking awesome and it's going to change everything. Imagine if you got in the back of an uber, but the destination was wrong, so you ask "hey can you fix the destination?" and the driver turns around and says "Whoops! I'll fix the destination now" and now for some reason the car has no tires. You tell the driver, "hey we need tires to make this trip" and the driver says "silly me! I'll fix that now". But now for some reason you're in the drivers seat and the driver is trapped in the trunk. You yell back to the driver, "Hey! You're supposed to be the driver" and you can hear a muffled "My mistake! Let me get back to the front seat" but now for some reason the driver's head is on your body and your head doesn't exist anymore. Fuck yeah. Directly into my fucking veins. Does it make money? No. Is it good? No. So everything is going to be different and these fucking minimum wage dummies KNOW JACK SHIT. Not me though. I'm fuckin SMART. Everything will be DIFFERENT. I used the term CAPEX.

kidike

It’s just physics, Starlink can’t compete with ASTS, bigger antenna equals standard connectivity to any device (think IoT), cars, drones, wearables… Starlink wants to brute force the market flooding the space with thousands of satellites that need to be replaced every 1-2 years, it’s a CAPEX nightmare

Commercial_Deer_7114

Actually, in software in general and in AI in particular, it is a winner-take-all market. Nobody wants an AI that is right 75% of the time when 85% is available. That is what makes it so extremely risky. There was even a paper on this some years back which argued that because it is so costly in the long run to have a weaker AI, it kind of guarantees a long cycle of CAPEX and employment demand as firms will compete to produce, purchasers will shift between models, etc etc. It will consequently also erode the outsized profitability that people are projecting around.

anonymous_sheep1

Was is your take on the AI bubble and how would you position yourself at this point in time if you are a stock picker and manage an equity only portfolio? I was watching a Ray Dalio interview this week where he discussed the AI bubble from 2 angles: 1) what is a bubble: lots of wealth creation from “weak hands” - the public buying equities on leverage instead of strong hands (private holders). 2) what makes the bubble burst: an event that invites a demand for cash ultimately pops the bubble as people need to sell wealth for cash. And leverage is the catalyst that creates panic selling. Burry also compared NVDA to CISCO and argued that the issue about this bubble isn’t earnings but rather an over supply of infrastructure build out (very much like the dot com bubble). But at the same time, I am aware that we are in a rate cut cycle with a dozen other stimulus policies (I think it looks like an early cycle) that makes asset price go up. The K shaped economy is also talked about a lot where hyperscaler CAPEX is the only thing that “matters.” So it’s really hard to say how much longer this craziness can last. Maybe the market rallies another 100% from here and the disinflationary effect of AI really makes earnings catch up to a reasonable valuation and maybe the dotcom bust happens again from the consumer credit breakdown or yen carry trade unwind in the next 2 years. Curious what you think as an institutional investor in terms of what business cycle and how would you adjust allocation amid the near term macro/sentiment tailwind vs longer term structural risk on AI top heavy economy.

raisedeyebrow4891

This is like someone saying that there are huge outflows from tech into healthcare and that healthcare is doing so well this week while over the course of the year tech has outperformed healthcare 5x. What people may or may not realize is that the AI has hat is driving the CAPEX of the hyperscalers is the same AI that is allowing pharma companies to innovate and bring drugs to market faster, safer and more profitable. AI is everywhere and this is only the beginning.

jackflash223

You've absolutely nailed the true source of the AI CAPEX bubble. It's not the chips, it's the Toilet-to-Rack Conversion Ratio or TCR for short.

Lunarisation

I doubt they are even breaking even from a CAPEX vs revenue perspective.

Darth1Football

FWIW - Capital Equipment (CAPEX) spending / budget approval is down for '26 projects. The majority of the ones I'm familiar with deal directly with the consumer. That signals companies are nervous about prospects headed into the new year

maui-shark-fighter

Your thesis is basically Ai is power hungry, buy utility companies. It doesn't work that way. The biggest hole in your thesis is that all these players are going to make money in the Ai race is that you said it yourself. The grid isn't ready. So if it isn't ready how are these players going to make any money if they have to cough up CAPEX to upgrade the Grid? Short answer is: THEY ARENT. Most Ai datacenters are near the source of their power so long transmission lines are needed to distribute this load BECAUSE of said grid. If you look at most of the Ai players they aren't waiting for grandpas utility company to suddenly deploy enough capacity to the grid and transmission. Utility companies are already under scrutiny for this issue and will soon be regulated, by federal, state and local laws. By the time the utility companies upgrade the grid Ai will already be on to the next steps which are using light and silicon instead of expensive power.

touuuuhhhny

I mean low CAPEX doesn't even give justice. They spent 2 Million cash expenses (two!) to generate 5xxM in revenue in Q3. That is batshit insane

No_Cell6708

Shouldn't be surprising. Tons of money is being loaned out for CAPEX. Lower rates = muh economy pumps (ideally) I noticed during COVID that the market makes massive assumptions about where rates are headed and often that ahead of itself. We'll see how it works out this time.

KittyLover-7

They haven’t cancelled NVDA orders so the CAPEX is still there

Geno_2102

Yea that’s an interesting take. AMZN has a history of artificially lowering their EPS by spending loads of cash on investments. Do you not think that this company will eventually turn from a CAPEX heaving company into a company that rewards share holders? Yes not ideal but I see why AMZN is valued higher than Walmart etc.

Geno_2102

Yes definitely! They are the most efficient companies in the world. The flexibility they have to stop CAPEX at the snap of their fingers or keep developing has never been seen before

Desmater

They are, just saying they don't have as solid as FCF as the others. Also their business has more down cycles with advertising. Even though Alphabet also does the same. But they also have other business segments. META at $100 awhile ago, happened for a reason. Also the excess CAPEX into the "Meta Verse."