CAPEX
Eaton Vance Capital Exchange Fund
Mentions (24Hr)
87.50% Today
Reddit Posts
Why Meta Stock Dropped -- Then Bounced Back
Hyperscalers and digital infrastructure providers is just the first wave of infrastructure builder
Fervo Energy (FRVO): Google just quietly expanded their geothermal deal to 3 GW. Here's why this matters for the AI energy trade.
MICRON Huge beat and expects CAPEX to increase amidst increasing demand
Title: Kinepolis Is Dirt Cheap: Why Wall Street Is Missing a Massive Value Play 🍿🚀 Hey r/pennystocks, While everyone target AMC's high-debt volatility, the market is completely mispricing European giant **Kinepolis**.
Comfort Systems USA ($FIX) - Time to take profits?
$ALHAF (Haffner Energy) DD: Projecting a €23.6M annual net margin on a single site (Marolles) with zero-cost biomass feed.
$ALHAF (Haffner Energy) - Massive arbitrage opportunity in green hydrogen: 0.59€/kg production vs 7-9€/kg market price
Ultimate DD: MSFT is the best stock in the word because they OWN ALL OF YOU
Dell’s $24B AI monster quarter means the hardware supply chain is about to go crazyy
META is the best value play that will 5X - 40k Yolo
META is the most attractive value stock play - 40k yolo
Why does AI keep pumping, and when will the music stop?
How AI keeps pumping and when will the music stop?
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Enough is enough fk u quantum/space regards making money - top is in
$META DD - Why you should bet on the lizard king
Best Compounder in the AI Data Center Value Chain - Amphenol (APH)
Best Compounder in the AI Data Center Value chain - Amphenol (APH)
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve
I have a list of energy/industrials companies but each one has their flaws.
Fuck Al - I have a list of energy/industrials companies but each one has their flaws. Would value your perspective.
🌾 The Hay-conomy is Breaking: Why Rising Feed Costs are a Systemic Risk for Ag-Stocks
Holding META/METU into the weekend hoping for a a turnaround
How to better position your portfolio after huge CAPEX from Big Tech - Q1 Earnings
ORCL needs cloud partners and GPU alternatives
$BUFF.V or OTC $BLPTF. PEA out. 30 percent IRR projected. Buffalo Potash the Potash Fertilizer Company with tech patents
The $260M Market Cap "Pick and Shovel" Play Hidden in Plain Sight (CEO says they're in almost EVERY AI GPU/TPU) - $ASYS:
APLD - Heavily shorted, recent catalyst, shorts doubled down vs covering
RZLV: this 750% growth stock is heavily underpriced. Risk/reward ratio on this is NUTS.
Rezolve AI ($RZLV): A High-Growth AI Infrastructure Play With an Extreme Risk/Reward Dislocation
Charbone Hydrogen (CH.V / CHHYF): A Mispriced, Dual Play on Green Hydrogen Production and Helium Supply
DD: Highland Copper (HI.V / HDRSF) - Does anybody else have this stock on their watchlist?
My thoughts - AMS-osram for a EU Photonic play and great industrial execution track record
The entire AGI bet rests on a single island - and the market doesn't seem to care
Full Port DD: Decided to stop betting short term and went all in with long dated leaps
Is There an AI Bubble? CAPEX, Profitability, Data Centers & Market Risk: Positions
Is There an AI Bubble? CAPEX, Profitability, Data Centers & Market Risk
[Industry Insight] Why we dumped our excess wine onto the bulk market (and spent the cash on a massive solar array). A reality check on winery economics.
Mayday, Mayday - JetBlue Airways's (JBLU) Zero Hedge Disaster
Rate my Commodity "Sniper" Portfolio - Aiming for 10x Reratings ($9k)
$GETY - DOJ regulatory catalyst + 60% Dark Pool Short Volume + 4.6 Days to Cover = The Mother of All Reversals? 🚀
The AI CAPEX wave has 74 Reddit-mentioned tickers. Here is the 75th - and why it may be better than the rest!
OpenAI resets spending expectations, tells investors compute target is around $600 billion by 2030
OpenAI resets spend expectations, targets around $600 billion by 2030
FSLY +91% in February: The Earnings Blowout Signals AI Tailwinds – But Is It Sustainable?
Am I crazy to think AMZN can hit $300 and META can hit $1000 this year?
Big Tech Capex is accelerating +44% YoY to ~$610B in 2026. What are the best bets to surf this wave (besides Nvidia)?
Why has AMZN been the most underperforming MAG7 stock in past 5 years?
It's not the last year that's irrational, it's this dump that's irrational
Google Earnings Report: $GOOGL Results Released Yesterday
ESS Tech DD (iron flow battery manufacturer) + news: recently secured $9.9m contract from Concurrent Technologies and US Air Force Research Laboratory
MSFT: a compelling entry point after an unjustifiable drop
MSFT, META, and TSLA Reported Earnings Yesterday
HYMC: Eric Sprott's Historical YOLO/My Biggest Position
HYMC: Eric Sprott's Historical YOLO/My Biggest Position
Black Swan | The Greenland Gambit: Why Novo Nordisk (NVO) is the Ultimate Geopolitical Pawn | Denmark's Crown Jewel on US Entity Black List
Black Swan | The Greenland Gambit: Why Novo Nordisk is the Ultimate Geopolitical Pawn | Denmark's Crown Jewel on US Entity Black List
Energy Fuels Announces Updated Feasibility Study for Toliara Rare Earth and HMS Project in Madagascar Confirming World-Class Scale and Economics, Including $1.8 Billion NPV and Ramping Up to Over $500 Million of Expected Annual EBITDA
$AUNA DD: Latin American Healthcare Beast Trading at Depression Prices – Time to Load the Boat Before It Moons 🌙🚀
Planet Labs (PL) DD, Space Stock Flying Under the Radar
5 Solid Names I'm looking at tonight into next week.
Central Asia (80M+ population) as the next Frontier Market. Evaluating a structural reform thesis for FDI growth. Bullish or Bearish?
Nvidia strongly pushes back on the 'AI CAPEX Bubble' narrative. How the market reacts around the 21d EMA will be key. Full thoughts here.
How MAG7 CAPEX Will Lift a Constellation of Small Strategic Techs
If Current Valuations Are Supported by Earnings, Why is Schiller PE at Dot Com Bubble Levels?
Volato Group ($SOAR): Deep DD into their business model, fleet leasing and strategic M&A expansion ✈️
DD on the 10x Potential of Misunderstood company $RYM
After Eos, GWH Emerges as the Next Strong Contender in Non-Lithium Battery Technology
Mentions
Lets scare the market: CAPEX
Lol, since summer last year they’ve done nothing but beat and raise, the stock is struggling because of CAPEX
If your day is going bad, it could be worse, there’s people in here with meta and Msft calls who will get butchered after an increase in CAPEX and people with semi and memory calls thinking the inevitable CAPEX increase is going to change anything like we don’t already know the demand is there
will full port calls tommorrow now, I am not gonna risk my savings on MSFT AND META CAPEX NUMBERS
CAPEX he said it lets go
CAPEX CAPEX CAPEX :jpow:
If they announce they're winding down CAPEX, probably.
nah, META earnings/CAPEX way more important imo. I imagine semis pump pretty considerably after META report
All eyes on MSFT CAPEX AND THEIR GARBAGE ASS COPILOT $190B ON DECLININGS SUBS AINT IT BRO
Calls on megacaps increasing CAPEX spending
Plot for today: CAPEX increases and semis crashing
Wow, that is really great reply. Thanks again for your thoughts. Like you, I am also bullish on the future of more and more sophisticated agentic workloads, and frankly, I am puzzled more than distraught seeing my memory holdings sliced in half. I understand the efficiency gains from Kimi K3, but whether the blend is HBM/DRAM/Flash, the overall demand for memory will be higher as both model parameters and agents get bigger and more advanced. You have also done a great job laying out the bearish macro outlook hanging over AI CAPEX. Personally, I don't see how AI CAPEX can slow down. The US government views the AI race with China as existential, and I don't see how the US can slow down while China is ramping up. Nvidia has recently stepped up to the plate to serve as a backstop, and I can see the US government doing the same in the near future.
1. I never see Burry and very few other analysts mention the $NVDA + Japan Infrastructure deal... that's worth what like $260 billion that's not even in the books yet... and let's be real here.... Japan is the first country (that I know of) doing this ... who knows how big that market is "outside" of the typical hyperscaler DCs... 2. EVERYTHING in earnings so far.... shows there is additional massive CAPEX spend on more AIDC build outs coming from the hyperscalers alone... 3. IMO.... We won't know when the AI bubble will burst until the companies building out and charging for the services fail.... NVDA will get paid for their hardware even if those others fail down the road.... which IMO won't be known until late next year... 4. I think this is all just an attempt to "get a better price" for the BIG institutions.... 5. IMO I think Burry get's some kind of "behind the door" kick back to scare fools to get the price to their buy levels.... In conclusion IMO, I don't think we see a top on $NVDA until we see a HUGE ATH that is completely disconnected from the current ATH... Like $300 \~... But this is just my opnion
I don't understand how people still think this is a grounded argument when the math doesn't pan out. The hyperscalers are not building out data centers for pure inference, they are using these data centers mainly for training newer models, which is the most expensive part of the cycle. They have spent 100s of billions to train LLM's so far, that CAPEX spend is wasted, gone. Kimi K3 made sure of that. Even if hyperscalers were to abandon training new models from here on out, and only sell inference, they would need to upcharge their tokens to companies to make back the money that they have spent. But hyperscalers aren't only selling inference, they will continue to train newer models which gets more expensive the more parameters these models have. A lot of people are going to get burned from investing into AI because they can't do basic math.
Brother can we get out of this doom spam of bad news for semis, every 2 seconds it’s fucking something new: CHINESE EUV, SANCTIONS, ENERGY CONSTRAINTS, CAPEX ISSUES, CIRCULAR FINANCING, KOREAN LEVERAGE, FUCKING YEN STUFF, IRAN LAUNCHED DIRECTLY AT NVIDIA They are just spamming bearish words lol half of it doesn’t matter or is way overblown but gotta get those clicks and max fear. As soon as it’s deemed finish they’ll turn off the spam and we’ll see only good news. Just kinda tired of warped reality around MSM
META gonna zuck everyone today by cutting CAPEX.
Nah I think they will cut CAPEX
failed to beat the estimates the estimates: \- 10x AI CAPEX \- 10x revenue \- 10x profit margin \- layoff 10,000 employees
How much can CAPEX even increase from these levels with cash flows going negative
I feel like we are in a massive AI bubble. CAPEX is a ton and it's proven that ChatGPT and the rest will be profitable in like a 100 years. Not happening, but they can only turn to capital markets for investment, and so obvs they are hyping the hell out of it
We've only increased AI CAPEX by 5% this quarter. Semi stocks: -10%
Memory demands at this level don't have to be there though, if the CAPEX spending drops drastically within a few years it will be widely overpriced.
Rate hike and increased CAPEX from msft, amazon and meta and spy will go to 720.
There isn't going to be enough AI revenue generating TAM to support a \~10^(13) AI investment. Who is going to pay the 1% monthly payments required to pay off the cost of money on $7 TRILLION DOLLARS of capital investment over 5-6 years? 1% of 7 Trillion is 70 billion in loan payments ***per month***. AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, and META combined are only paying \~$7B per month right now on cost of money for their existing CAPEX. Do the math and you'll discover that there aren't enough paying customers on the planet to generate even that much revenue per month in total, much less paying off loans at that level, which would arguably require at least 10x the revenue or 700B in revenue ***per month***. The entire S&P 500 generates only 1.5T in revenue per month. AI isn't going to increase it by 50% in 5 years, friend. $700B/month is \~$90 per person per month on the planet. Who's gonna pay that? I won't pay $9, and you're certainly not going to get it in Uganda. This is why the AI sector topped out last month, and the big Wall St. houses are rotating sectors slowly to avoid spooking a market crash. How does that Jeremy Irons quote go? *"So you're telling me that the music is about to stop, and we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism."*
META: We’re stopping CAPEX completely. AI porn ads will be coming to boomer facebooks nationwide. +84%
Can't believe on Thursday, the only green sector was memory because of Google's CAPEX and now the entire sector is obliterated
Yes but it matters whether the returns justify the spending. If returns outweigh CAPEX by a lot then you’re golden but if returns are like on par then the company is cooked
CAPEX. If spending more than you’re returning you’re actually losing.
Who watching the big game tomorrow? Main card META versus CAPEX! I got money on it
There’s one thing that haunts my dreams at night: CAPEX
No. What crushed Google was their CAPEX without providing massive ROI (for data centers not even built yet). The market can be shortsighted and irrational. This whole chip/memory selloff is all about leverage and positioning, it has nothing to do with fundamentals. We'll see how things go when SK Hynix reports later evening and KOSPI handles the last few days before the new leverage restrictions go into effect.
Does Zucks WSJ opinion piece today essentially confirm higher CAPEX?
That may be the case long term. In the near term, the rate of increase on CAPEX spend is declining. And I suspect the first thing hyperscalers do if they acheive AGI is use it to reduce their cost.
Mag7 is toast. They are spending CAPEX and taking on debt like the singularity is upon us, it's all total bullshit.
Assuming the demand for AI CAPEX sustains and continues increasing the demand for what MU makes will be there. CXMT is unable and not on pace to compete with the latest offerings and this should be the case for the next 5-10 years. The thing is... until the market better understands the demand from business for inference and the business model for hyperscalers the market will be jittery regarding all this AI related stuff and nervous it will collapse.
Oh shit I forgot MSFT and META earnings are tomorrow. Good luck holders, theyre gonna drop like a rock after the call is just going to be "AI AI AI AGNETIC AI AGENTIC CAPEX CAPEX CAPEX"
This market is so stupid Company A: we’re increasing CAPEX (gets dumped) Company B: we’re benefiting from the CAPEX, here’s another beat and raise (dumped)
The only hope is that META, MSFT will guide even more CAPEX thus making GOOG seem cautious by comparison (and lower growth in cloud)
>the best thing about Quantums is NO ~~CAPEX~~ NUTHIN fixed that for you
the best thing about Quantums is NO CAPEX Quantum season is almost upon us! August 5 for IONQ August 6 earnings for RGTI, QBTS August 10 QUBT
AMZN and MFST - if they increase CAPEX they fall if they Decrease CAPEX the whole market falls
Google: +213% beat, profiting a lot from their investment in datacenters and finally having something to invest in that can yield the returns people were expecting of them to return Market: OMG, LOOK AT THAT CAPEX AND FCF, AI BUBBLE BAD, -5%!
I exited my entire meta position recently. Management will likely take the company through the full AI capex cycle until all the other hyperscalers pull back. When that will be is anyone's guess. The risk is actually higher than expected capex in 2027 IMO. Market is probably still underestimating how much more money these hypersaclers will spend buying AI chips and letting them sit idle. Current analysts are projecting around 22% CAPEX in 2027 and that sounds conservative to me - just a hunch but quarter after quarter actual CAPEX keeps getting revised up. The issue is the waves of depreciation that will hit earnings statements for years long after capex growth finally starts dropping off. This will suppress EPS growth and compress valuations further.
The need for AI inference is likely effectively infinite so demand for it will outstrip supply. The demand will be driven by the increase in efficiency in the economy it produces. Assuming that increase in efficiency is sufficient the revenues and profits will follow. If I had to put out a timeline, my expectation is 2028 is the year we see AI revenues outpacing AI CAPEX.
I think this could be a shitty rest of the week without unexpected interventions. I don't believe The Guy anymore, and neither does them market based on how quickly the "We're meeting the Iranians" headline sold off. We now face BoJ and Fed decisions in the upcoming days factoring current and anticipated inflation of all of this in. All alongside no relief in sight for the hyperscalers, which still constitute a huge % of the S&P and NASDAQ, and have been unstable due to FCF depression by huge CAPEX that michael burry is also saying is partly being funded by debt that he now asserts is being held by insurance companies and pension funds that are compromised. On top of all this, Orange is still renewing fights with Europe and Canada, and I personally think there is a chance Russia could lash out after some pretty hard-hitting strategic strikes by Ukraine. I'm just saying, this is wacky stuff coming up
Yeah I have no complaints about AAPL skyrocketing cuz just bought some after they announced the price raise. I think, tho, the problem with CAPEX is not that they they are not seeing ROI. At least for all the hyperscalers their cloud business is booming and demand already exceeds supply, hence the spending on data centers justifies. The problem is that whether this mode will be consistent(or more technically, when do we claim that AI is the Lord of the world), and the market is always afraid of dotcom thing coming again, so stocks like MSFT and GOOG takes hit at different times. I honestly have no clue how this AI thing will continue, but AAPL is involuntarily benefiting from this is what I'm saying.
Im saying that there is no AI bubble and the CAPEX is and will have a significant ROI long term whether the tards here want to believe that or not. Stop associating the dotcom to AI CAPEX until there is evidence these companies are going bankrupt. The demand for AI is higher than the supply whether reddit wants to agree with that or not. The ROI will mature
Because they are not yoloing their cash on AI related CAPEX, so when the circular financing of the rest of big tech plus openAI and Anthropic blows up they'll be ok.
I am an AAPL shareholder. But I think it's a bit silly the narrative is now to reward capex light companies; because what intrinsic value does that add to the company? MSFT reported $37b ARR in AI services in Q3, and later this week we get the Q4 update. Considering the $37b figure was over 100% YoY increase, I'm expecting another big leap this week. AMZN reported $15b ARR in AI services in their prior Q1. Also expect a huge leap here as well later this week. GOOGL does not break out AI services, but cloud revenue grew over 80% YoY in their just reported Q2. In more recent times, cloud growth was 30-40%, so obviously a huge slice of that is AI. So the CAPEX spend is creating a new and fast growing revenue stream for those who want to see it. It is only those who want to follow the "AI capex spend will never payoff" that choose to ignore it.
They not snorting the CAPEX coke.
This market is stupid. GOOG says it is increasing CAPEX spending. Buffett even says CAPEX spending sucks but makes sense to do. AI build out stocks go down.
These companies have done bonds, dilutions, cash flow going negative, CAPEX can only increase so much from these levels and is being scrutinised more and more We’re closer to a AI top than the bottom, the hype stage is over, it’s time to produce results This is erotica for bers
# Don't worry guys once AI CAPEX crashes the economy there will be no jobs left except formatting excel files, cuz even LLMs won't stoop that low
WTF does Tim Apple do with the money if they are not spending on CAPEX nor buying back shares?
They build their own semi-conductors and are making PCs that could reasonably run local models. So theoretically if businesses don’t want to pay the subscription model they buy some Apples and put whatever local model they want on them. Obviously that way of doing things hasn’t taken hold but Apple is a clear hedge against cloud based AI and CAPEX.
Look at how dumb the average bull is. There is NO MORE GOOD NEWS. IRAN WILL NOT END ANY TIME SOON BECAUSE 🥭 WONT ACCEPT A LOSS AND IRAN WINS THE LONGER THIS DRAGS ON. ITS EITHER BOOTS ON THE GROUND OR IRAN MAKES BILLIONS TOLLING IT WHILE WE LEAVE. CAPEX IS EXPLODING NO MORE FCF FOR MAG 7. This is the start of a 30 year bear market so prepare accordingly.
Aapl is being used as a AI CAPEX safety haven play CAPEX fatigue is real and more and more people are questioning this spend and cash flows going negative
One of 3 need to say CAPEX reduction, would it happen though?
The higher the CAPEX spending, the higher the stock! LFG GOOG and MSFT!
MSFT and META are going to announce increased CAPEX and you're not buying memory stocks? Craaaazzzzyyyyyy
TOTAL CAPEX * 2023: \~$151B * 2024: \~$246B * 2025: \~$410B * 2026 (guidance): \~$725B * 2027 (consensus): \~$920B TOTAL REVENUE GROWTH * 2023: \~$81B * 2024: \~$133B * 2025: \~$177B * 2026 (guidance): \~$235B They've only begun to recover money they spent in 2024. It's a bubble.
2023: ^That’s ^enough ^CAPEX. 2024: That’s enough CAPEX. 2025: **That’s** **enough** **CAPEX.** 2026: #**THAT’S** **ENOUGH** **CAPEX!**
2023: ^That’s ^enough ^CAPEX 2024: That’s enough CAPEX. 2025: #That’s enough CAPEX 2026: #**THAT’S** **ENOUGH** **CAPEX**
2023: ^That’s ^enough ^CAPEX 2024: That’s enough CAPEX. 2025: #That’s #enough #CAPEX 2026: #**THAT’S** #**ENOUGH** #**CAPEX**
Msft and meta puts Googl and apple reaction gave you the play, market is in punish CAPEX mode
For sure. But I think Amazon might be the only one to decrease CAPEX - their AWS books are looking really strong from what I’m seeing. regardless it might dump with the rest of the Mag 7 anyway so who knows
Numbers can be cooked in terms of contracts and CAPEX. Best believe when the AI bubble pops MU will be one of the first to go down.
Sell everything. Wait for earnings reports to tank META and AMZN. But at dip for massive profits in 2 years when CAPEX comes down
The hyperscalers spend 750 billion dollars of CAPEX in 2026 alone solely for AI Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to train and run their models. They see it as an investment. Generally, when you invest in something, you expect a positive return. Meaning 750 billion of investment should net above 750b of revenue, all to be paid by the AI companies. How likely is it that Anthropic, OpenAI and Gemini combined will reach 750 billion in annual revenue? You tell me.
It is a concern because CAPEX spend has been a big driver of valuation for months now
If they increase CAPEX they will drop - and I will be buying the whole way down
Samsung and Hynix asking how much they want to increase the CAPEX.
Ok but hows CAPEX? EBITDA?
First off, using avg price targets as a signal is usually not a good idea - trending of them maybe (ie trending up/down over the past wk or mo + # of analysts covering up/down). There are just a lot of other indicators that are much better. Both will have big CAPEX #’s which will likely cause no-conviction investors to sellout and knock the stocks down even more. This will clean out the “traders” idk? But the reaction will also knock down a few other pins alongside, too. Don’t forget about the pin action. A lot still depends on the bond markets which looked dicey this past week. But I don’t think a more stable bond market will mean positive reaction to earnings tho - more like a continued sketch bond market would mean these two get crushed even more. We’ll see. Thru the end of the year tho, I personally think the hyperscalers are the new defensives, and some time in late Aug there will be an inflection point & multiples will move back to historical norms - or at least the group will rebalance at around a FWD P/E around 25-27. What do ya think?
It’s gonna be mentioned no matter what, this is the main sticking point and Google is the main reason why. If Zuckerberg is anything to go by, no way he just magically decides to stop CAPEX spend this quarter
DRAM will go back up because Hyperscaler CAPEX went up 20% due to DRAM prices.. SPCX, not so much.
After seeing ALPHABET/GOOGLE’s earnings destroy expectations and then still getting clobbered by the market (loss of 7% in market cap)due to an increase in CAPEX spending up to 205 BILLION, I’m definitely NOT too optimistic for META and MSFT. META has a chance to mitigate its downside due to its diversification into leasing its data center buildouts to Anthropic. MSFT ? Not so much, as the Software industry is getting destroyed by AI. Their cloud services business AZURE has been fantastic, however, again, they will get punished due to CAPEX spending goals. I can’t go long on either and would consider going short. Good luck to what ever you decide !
I have been experimenting with a different way of analyzing markets using multiple LLMs. The goal is not to predict stock prices directly. The goal is to understand how **relationship networks change under different market conditions**, and to update those relationships as new evidence arrives. Most investment discussions focus on identifying more variables. I think the harder problem is that the relationships themselves are not fixed. For example, increasing AI usage does not always imply increasing GPU demand. Under one regime: AI usage ↑ → Revenue ↑ → Cash flow ↑ → CAPEX ↑ → GPU/HBM demand ↑ Under another regime: AI usage ↑ → Inference costs ↑ → Margin ↓ → Financing pressure ↑ → CAPEX ↓1 A third path is also possible: Profitability ↓ → Competitive pressure ↑ → External financing ↑ → Strategic CAPEX maintained The same observation can therefore activate different causal paths depending on context. The same thing happens over time. Initially: GPU investment → AI service capacity Later: AI demand → GPU reinvestment Nodes continuously change from causes to effects and back again. My experience is that once enough variables accumulate, both humans and LLMs tend to collapse the network into a single convenient explanation. For example: "HBM demand is strong, therefore HBM will keep rising." That statement may be directionally correct while still hiding several missing paths: * power constraints * data-center construction delays * financing conditions * inventory cycles * product transitions * delayed revenue recognition Instead of comparing only final conclusions, I have started comparing the intermediate relationship networks generated by different models and identifying the **first divergence point** where their causal structures begin to differ. Has anyone here experimented with a similar framework? I'm particularly interested in methods for evaluating competing causal relationship networks rather than individual valuation models.
# Title: Is the biggest challenge in investment analysis no longer the variables, but the relationships between them? I have been experimenting with a different way of analyzing markets using multiple LLMs. The goal is not to predict stock prices directly. The goal is to understand how relationship networks change under different market conditions, and to update those relationships as new evidence arrives. Most investment discussions focus on identifying more variables. I think the harder problem is that the relationships themselves are not fixed. For example, increasing AI usage does not always imply increasing GPU demand. Under one regime: AI usage ↑ → Revenue ↑ → Cash flow ↑ → CAPEX ↑ → GPU/HBM demand ↑ Under another regime: AI usage ↑ → Inference costs ↑ → Margin ↓ → Financing pressure ↑ → CAPEX ↓1 A third path is also possible: Profitability ↓ → Competitive pressure ↑ → External financing ↑ → Strategic CAPEX maintained The same observation can therefore activate different causal paths depending on context. The same thing happens over time. Initially: GPU investment → AI service capacity Later: AI demand → GPU reinvestment Nodes continuously change from causes to effects and back again. My experience is that once enough variables accumulate, both humans and LLMs tend to collapse the network into a single convenient explanation. For example: "HBM demand is strong, therefore HBM will keep rising." That statement may be directionally correct while still hiding several missing paths: * power constraints * data-center construction delays * financing conditions * inventory cycles * product transitions * delayed revenue recognition Instead of comparing only final conclusions, I have started comparing the intermediate relationship networks generated by different models and identifying the first divergence point where their causal structures begin to differ. Has anyone here experimented with a similar framework? I'm particularly interested in methods for evaluating competing causal relationship networks rather than individual valuation models.
Sk Hynix will smash earnings out the park which will somehow crash the Korean stock but the American one will rise 25%. They will then make a joke about they are glad they don’t sell washing machines like Samsung so they can’t miss on that, which will cause a random panic sell off of all memory again. MU rallies to a new ATH from peace talk 600 and then crashes when Amazon commits to more CAPEX for some reason
if you’re worried about the capex numbers you should post them. MRQ CAPEX 30.8 (37% of revenue) 29.8 (36% of revenue) 19 (25%) 17 (22%) It’s a very big jump without an increase of revenue to show for it. They will need much better guidance, so it seems bearish.
Accenture doubled their CAPEX and are pivoting towards software security solutions / AI stuff. So I take it they know that consulting is going to be on the downside.
Everyone is spending all their current free cash flow on AI buildup/buildout on prospective business. All of it. Alphabet just had their first quarter of negative FCF because of this. MSFT, prob same Or close to it. And, it’s likely they are OVERSPENDING! So when the investment turns into a cash generating part of the book, great. But it may be awhile before that happens. This is a CAPEX buildup, and the big question is, who wins besides the chipmakers ?
Memory and semi Bols after 2030 when CAPEX gets cut because there’s still no ROI and their cheap forward PEs get even cheaper: 😮
I dont care whatever invesetment advice I read. I read a lot of trading or stock proposals, and all of them were fine, fuundamentally based and well researched. And then one of those investment banking cocksuckers comes out and says "AI eats software", "Cockroaches in private credit", actually "CAPEX eats hyperscalers" (the current rush)... , "Hyperscaler bonds are junk" - those big market participants turn the US stock market into a shithole. IBM, Oracle (got a $7 bn tender) drop by 30% on the slighest "concern", and all of that is messed up by people whose job it is to make deals and remain invested - called investment bankers. They whipsaw those great names, big american names like an obscure Hongkong pennystock. So what are those people? Are they talking the maket down to buy the dip or just sell off for self declared reasons? I wounder how the first transcontinental railway got financed - bonds with 10 year term for example but nowadays people ask for redemptions after 3 months... sorry, 10 rails mounted but we cant pay the workers any more? Stay with horses and carriages? There was another, better type of investor around, people who planned a carry trade with 100% of return by a three port trip by a sailship. Nowadays... sorry we sold the cargo after 7 days ship now sails elsewhere? That is madness, nonsense. When I am flat and out of my current postionsin US stocks and indices I will leave it to those who wanna get burned or torn away from that what they consider an investment... buy and hold. But can I buy and hold when others tell me "implement a SL 10% below the current price" when some stocks make 30 or 40% up and down within weeks? That's not investing, that's one shark attemting to bite another shark. We small fish are tired ...
Aapl with less of a growth prospect is performing better than the other cash burning idiots CAPEX fatigue is real now and is going to be even more scrutinised going forward “Start of the AI cycle” my ass
Yes unfortunately. The market seemed intent on dropping despite strong CAPEX projections
Yesterday Tech companies were Red for big CAPEX Today companies receiving CAPEX are Red 🤡
This completely misses the point. It doesn’t matter if the hyperscaler CEOs are smart or not to be spending all of this CAPEX. What matters is that they NEED to spend this CAPEX. They have no choice. They all know AI is coming one way or another. If it’s not them at figures it out, it’ll be someone else. It could be the Chinese, the Russians, the Europeans, or whoever. If they don’t spend on AI CAPEX and R&D, they’ll for sure be left behind. That’s a for sure certainty. I have no idea who the AI winners will ultimately be but I know the CAPEX spending won’t slow down cuz they have to choice but to keep spending.
Fuck you GOOGL for lighting more money on fire and the fucking "CAPEX will continue to accelerated in 2027" line
So we can go up tomorrow if google crushes earnings AND mantains/increases CAPEX on AI.
GOOG will announce CAPEX of 1t but wall street wants to here 3t therefore semis and memory dump 30% after hours
We need Luigi of Mag7 to get this madness AI CAPEX to stop. CEOs are clearly willing to bankrupt themselves and their shareholders
7/24 NVDA 205P? Goog earnings.. could be cutting CAPEX or steady
Increase in CAPEX, 100th deal, Korean and US fomo SNDK 3000 eom
The moment GOOG announces CAPEX increase MU and SNDK will go up 10% ah
Everyone is waiting for CAPEX guidance from hyperscalers