Reddit Posts
Companies to avoid or who will gain due to AI? Suggestions please and why, but exclude the magnificent 7 as they been talked to death.
Favo Capital Expands Global Footprint With Three Strategic Acquisitions
Why Microsoft's gross margins are going brrr (up 1.89% QoQ).
Why Microsoft's gross margins are expanding (up 1.89% QoQ).
Why Microsoft's gross margins are expanding (up 1.89% QoQ).
Seeking Suggestions for my Next Portfolio Allocation Re-balance
Advise on selling some of my holdings - GOOGL, META, INTU, CRM
$SONG This will be my last post about the company until the new year. Part 1 of 3 (tried to post it all once and it would allow me)
AmpliTech Group, Inc (Nasdaq:AMPG) Stock in Focus
Retirement Planning's-3 stocks could help power your investment portfolio and make you wealthier by retirement.
MRIN- Marin Software integration with HubSpot- Untapped CRM Data
Have 500 CRM stocks sitting in my account. Is weekly covered calls a good idea to make regular income?
Conviction Buy List of Goldman Sachs. Which recommendation is your favorite?
IDGlobal Corp. Announces Corporate Update Focused on AI Subsidiary QHP Corporation Developments
IDGlobal Corp. Subsidiary QHP Corporation Announces Joint Venture and Revenue Sharing with EnergyPro
NEWS: $EMIN.v at $0.04 on the TSX-Venture Canada: Spark Energy Minerals Partners with Straight Edge Marketing Inc. for Advanced AI-Driven Marketing and Advertising Services
Quantitative Analysis for Veeva Systems, Inc. (NYSE: VEEV)
Quantitative Analysis for Veeva Systems, Inc. (NYSE: VEEV)
Dow Jones today: Markets sputter to start a shortened week.
How Shopify ($SHOP) 'shape shift' made e-commerce firm attractive again
YOLOing my last thousand on option stocks after losing a lot of money. Missed out on Tesla calls by selling too early, bought CRM calls before earnings, and bought SPY puts to ride them to 0. Switched to QQQM now. RIP!
I’m a 16 Year Old Who Just LOST Their Life Savings
CRM loss porn and I sold my tesla call about $170 too early. Should’ve taken profits idk.
Earning plays for CRWD, CRM, AI, OKTA, and JWN
Jim Cramer: CRM have a bright future, expect good thing out of year
WIMI Hologram Cloud(NASDAQ: WIMI): The innovation and development of BPMS
Five stocks/mutual funds/ETFs/Bonds you’d invest for 20-25 years
Exceeding expectations: OLB Group ($OLB) first quarter financial results.
Exceeding expectations: OLB Group ($OLB) first quarter financial results.
$PNPNF My top mining company on watch as recent news points this company in the right direction..sounds like they have even more resources then they we’re counting on..and that it was already looking solid…
2023-05-08 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of a Maple Syrup Lover
Uncovering the Potential of $BCAN in the Booming Medical Cannabis Market - DD
Exxe Group Announces Its First Resort Deal in Thailand
50,000 shares of Microsoft Co. ($MSFT) were acquired by Graphene Investments SAS.
Keeping a close eye on Edge Total Intelligence Inc. (CTRL.V) progress achieved this month
CRM: A mature company, losing money & promising to break even in just 919 years!
Try to Find a Salesforce ($CRM) report on a hedge fund website
AIGC Become A Hot Topic,WiMi Hologram Cloud Actively Explores The Relevant Fields
Google and Microsoft AI impress investors JP Morgan reiterates buy rating for amazon. Tesla faces antitrust lawsuits
CRM, RIVN Planning Another Round of Layoffs Per California's Employment Development Dept.
STNE earnings preview: Best of both worlds: Growth and Margin of Safety
GATHER APES. 1K - 43K (i started roughly 3 weeks ago!)
Zoominfo: Q4 Results and Dampened 2023 Outlook. Is Management being Conservative?
Zoominfo: Q4 Results and Dampened 2023 Outlook. Is Management being Conservative?
Zoominfo: Q4 Results and Dampened 2023 Outlook. Is Management being Conservative?
$CRM (Salesforce Inc) Revenue & Earnings Beat! Revenue +14.44%, Gross Profit +18.30%, Income From Operations (- to +), Net Income (negative), Stock-Based Compensation +6%, Free Cash Flow +41.6%
$CRM (Salesforce Inc) Revenue & Earnings Beat! Revenue +14.44%, Gross Profit +18.30%, Income From Operations (- to +), Net Income (negative)
The 3 Most Upgraded Stocks Are Reversing
Salesforce Pops On Earnings Beat, An Outlook Investors Should Note
Doubled Down on 🔺CRWD after making 3.6 Million on Salesforce 🔺CRM
DD - $CRM is going to gap up even further with the current macro environment, AI business integration, and a surprise catalyst next week
The Ultimate Question | Salesforce $CRM | What are you choosing?
The Ultimate Question | Salesforce $CRM | What are you choosing?
Today Salesforce (CRM) Jumped 11.51% After Their Earnings | What Was So Special About Their Earnings?
Today Salesforce (CRM) Jumped 11.51% After Their Earnings | What Was So Special About Their Earnings?
Today Salesforce (CRM) Jumped 11.51% After Their Earnings | What Was So Special About Their Earnings?
Today Salesforce (CRM) Jumped 11.51% After Their Earnings | What Was So Special About Their Earnings?
CRM numbers were ok. 14% YoY is nice. But the 12% pop was due to Benioff saying "AI" literally 10 times in the conference call.
Why I'm gettin' AMD calls for earnings today
This is for all the ones who laughed at me on my CRM puts. Matrix escape in progress.
Morning Briefing 🌞 Mar 1st 2023 - Let's make some money!
Mentions
Guiz I’m starting to think JPM was full of shit when they said selling 4-5 month out CRM puts was free money. Wat do if no money to buy 600 shares
why do I have CRM calls this stock is so ass
I saw someone's DD for shorting CRM. They typed in "build me a crm software" and Claude said "sure I can do that." That was it. That was the DD.
Agreed in some ways as I am about to drop an absolute bomb of fully coded AI on my niche industry and put 2 companies out of business.. but Microsoft is gonna be fine bro. Adobe will be fine. Oracle, hubspot etc for CRM the fact is even when people like myself use AI to build and scale CRMs, that shit is expensive. For any industry requiring compliance etc you can’t just vibe code an app that will break on user 11, Also who knows how much revenue slop hosting is going to bring Microsoft.
CRM has been downgraded to Dookie by AI 💩
Why is CRM (Salesforce) the only Software company going down right now?
Why is CRM not going up with every other crap?
CRM decided not to attend the party I guess
Have you read their glassdoor reviews lately? The truth is right there. I used to work there, and there was a book written by someone who did as well. It was all hype, and their only hope was cornering the SMB market, like full on becoming THE CRM, somehow making their product synonymous with CRM like their arch nemesis Salesforce has. Moreover, with AI out and so many AI competitors, SMBs can use a combination of a standard office suite, some cheap AI tool at under $30 a month and.... gasp.... PEOPLE to do a way better CRM, sales, and marketing than HubSpot could ever give. The human touch is coming back as a real value add for SMBs to engage with customers, not bot flows and automated BS. Bonus points for these cheaper tools either being free or contractless, month-to-month options. HubSpot's potential market is tapped out. The economy is hurting for SMBs. Everyone wants to pay less, not more, as technology improves. HubSpot always expected customers to pay more for less and pay for bullshit add ons. They weren't really exponentially growing customer base with brand new businesses compared to overall market growth. It was all covid bump. Like do you even know or like the product/company or you just bought on hype and complete fluff pieces? And you gripped that falling knife for dear life while HubSpot execs sold their stock. LOL!! You just made a bad choice, gurl.
CRM can’t even pump on a day Ike today. Certified trash
> CRM Too late, already YOLOed all in on it.
STX ANET calls, NOW W CRM puts... play both sides is the only thing I can think of these days...
I don't know all of these but Oracle is leverages up the ass. UNH has scandal upon earnings woes, NKE has been a mess, Adobe is AI vibe coding replacment fears, CRM see Adobe, MSFT is OpenAI sucking fears. TSLA has plenty more to go down. I don't follow all these other stocks just want to say these were all having problems before the War and had reasons. They may bounce but the only two of those in particular i like are MSFT and UNH in the long run.
my buys for this week: SNAP, CRM, SLV, MDB, MP, FIG, SOFI
My buys of the week: MDB, SNOW, CRM, COPX, FIG, SOFI
Today: “Wow, my CRM call is up 235%” Monday: “I should have taken the $23”
No, it’s not debatable. The AI selloff began in early November 2025. Many stocks have fallen 40%. ASTS CRM MSFT NFLX ORCL RGTI SOFI
CRM 👀 can’t figure out if it’s going to move up or down BIG but it’s primed for an explosion 💥
holy shit I sold my CRM calls at the top
META, ORCL, CRM all cutting thousands of white collar jobs. Maybe Citrini was right..
CRM will do well this year.
"Dev". The thing is sure the core basic features of a web app Calendly could be vibe coded to some degree. But there are a lot of back office processes etc which go into an enterprise level app. Not to mention Calendly seems to offer more than just that based on their website footer. If you can vibe code all of this in a morning I'll be impressed. **Product** Scheduling automation Meeting Notetaker Payments Customizable availability Mobile apps Browser extensions Meeting routing Event Types Email & website embeds Reminders & follow-ups Meeting polls Analytics Admin management **Integrations** Google ecosystem Microsoft ecosystem Calendars Video conferencing Payment processors Sales & CRM Recruiting & ATS Email messaging Embed Calendly Analytics API & connectors Security & compliance
I’m buying the fast growing, high margin, debt free, name brand, large cap technology companies with an average PEG around .9 being bought right now by insiders, the companies, Tom Lee, Dan Ives, & Stephanie Link, that are all UP\^ over the last 7 weeks (and today), after being cut in half the 7 weeks before that, whose efficiencies the AI they’re integrating will probably grow. NOW CRM APP VEEV ADSK WDAY. Hell, toss in PANW, TTWO, INTU, and a flyer on DUOL. Every one UP\^ over 7 weeks after getting nuked. Oh and this hidden gem called Microsoft.
How do I know this move is absolutely bullshit? INTU, CRM, NVDA, are all running at the same time. INTU and CRM inverses the market typically.
Entire markets going to look like INTU and CRM by July. INTU and CRM are going to look like a civil war happened. But then bounce like none other.
Half cash, metered buying on horrible days targeting 25% down s&p for full investment. Enterprise software, housing, crypto already crushed. Don’t think we’ll see 30% down. NOW APP MSFT VEEV CRM DDOG DT NVDA META
I use this site called stocknear (free) and look for the highest volatility stocks on that day, that I also wouldn’t mind owning and sell way OTM puts. Recently I have sold Puts on RDDT, ADBE, AVGO, CVNA, CRM, BE, etc.
I think it’s a buy. Ex MSFT employee here, and I’m probably a bit of a homer, but I think they’ve got a solid business, and they are naturally diversified: they have the desktop market with windows, gaming, cloud, end users with office, their own PC line, security, CRM, AI and so much more. Not only that, but they have billions of customers using their platforms.
Kinda high risk stuff there broski. These are large positions😬?? My polite suggestions: I personally think the smart risk currently is housing (XHB), airlines (UAL, AAL) but the real juice is Microsoft(!!!!) & top tier enterprise software (NOW, VEEV, CRM). Software generally is dirt cheap so cyber like PANW & CRWD. And video games, they’re software too, so TTWO. NVDA, META, AMZN getting too cheap. Software, housing, airlines for a trade only. Hold core positions in NVDA, AMZN, 1/2 position in META. Hope google, avgo, tsm aapl crash so u can load up.
Was going to say this too. SaaS getting blown out is understandable since they face disruption threat. If I had to bet on the Mag7 or the rest of the SaaS companies (idea is that either AI is overpriced because it doesn't generate value or AI does generate value and will disrupt others like SaaS)? I'd take the Mag7. Nothing against ADBE specifically. I would say the same of CRM or NOW. I'd take MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN of them.
MSFT ORCL NOW ADBE SAP CRM SNOW totally destroyed... ADSK
Rddt, Team, Microsoft, UBER and CRM
CRM pays a divvy, although pretty small. Benioff up'd it a bit recently.
Starting to sell puts now. META & RDDT. Maybe CRM. Otherwise worried I’ll puss put and never pull the trigger to buy back in. Assign me my shares as I’m bleeding red all over the place (no wait, not like that).
Salesforce stock has been tanking, but I think it could go lower. Their product is losing it's alure across the industry and it is not responding quickly enough to threats posed by anthropic into openai. It's agentforce tools are simply non-competitive. It's core CRM product is bloated, convoluted, and exceedingly expensive to purchase and maintain. I think the conditions are ripe for someone to eat their lunch. The only thing keeping it afloat right now is that it's really hard to switch off Salesforce. But if some of these AI tools make unifying disparate data sets easy, they're cooked.
So CRM, ADBE and NOW all had green days but not MSFT? Ok..
Software stocks holding up surprisingly well. CRM and ADBE are green today. Possible safe haven?
PANW, MSFT and CRM are biggest mistakes in recent times
MSFT is ultimately headed down the same path CRM and ADBE have been on. You can even make the case those are better buys here. They at least have stick products that people enjoy using. I can’t even remember a time I’ve heard one person say they found copilot useful
lol ADBE CRM down again. AI eating the software
Cramer went all it late Thursday into CRM…
JPM cashing in on those July insurance policies this week or next week that they told retail to sell for CRM lmao
There are lots of high quality names trading at discounts which I believe show much better next ~2-4 year returns than FIX at the current $1,450 price. I think FIX is now a big gamble given the valuations and multiple. FIX is already up another whopping 57% YTD following a 130% run up last year. This rally simply can't continue long term given the physical constraints of labor workforce. $1,450 is basically already pricing in a 20-30% YoY growth for this year, going into 2027, and possibly even into 2028. As we all know, the entire SaaS sector is unjustifiably punished. As my name implies, I've been continuing to actively invest in CSU. There are plenty of other high quality names that are very discounted. Some I have tracked that I believe are high quality at fair or even good valuations include SPGI, FICO, MCO, MSFT, CRM, BKNG, MELI, KNSL, CPRT, and BRO.
The chart is a nightmare but I do believe SaaS will survive long enough for a like 6-9 month trade, starting soon, and this one should bounce 20-40%. But I don’t own and it has a truly horrible chart. NOW crushed earnings & CRM just announced they’re buying back more than a 1/4 of the entire company. Stay with those or MSFT.
many of us still believe companies like MSFT, NOW, CRM are just stupid cheap. AI was going to KILL Google, remember? Then it doubled in like 6 months.
I was full port CRM calls, and doubled down at the bottom last night, how F'd am I? Any hope? May 1st
CRM and NOW once again approaching buy territory imo
Cramer just told his members to bulk buy CRM three days ago… 💃💃💃🤣🤣
Options are not my style, I don’t like predicting the market. It’s just a tool for wallstreeters to do the opposite more often than not. I bought a bit of CRM and CSU but nearly everything is historically overvalued. How many people are telling people to take profits. All I’m hearing is buy every week no matter what, not bad advice at all but there is a time and place for that. We’ve seen these behemoths like this in history. The nifty Fifty. We’ve see this before, I recommend you look into that especially with all these big stocks imo over investing their cashflow into Datacenters that haven’t proven they’ll generate profits. It leaves these stocks exceptionally valuable to a downturn not having free cashflow.
This the last time I ever listen to a financial Youtuber. Not pointing fingers here (ELF, EL, META, CELH, CRM, ADBE) 😦🤌
AI makes old-school SaaS feel bloated, but the stuff that survives won’t be “feature sets,” it’ll be workflow, trust, and data. AI is just the engine; SaaS becomes the chassis, UI, and support. I’d look for tools that sit on top of AI and own a niche outcome. For example, people use HubSpot for the CRM spine, Zapier for glue, and things like Pulse for Reddit to find real user pain before shipping anything.
Thank god I didnt listen to that one "expert" youtuber who told everyone to buy CRM, ADBE, ELF, EL AND CELH
I'm happy SPY is green. I bet my MSFT and CRM port is going great. Checking now...
Not sure the last time my total port was net negative delta. It is now, LOL. My calls on AAOI, LITE, GLW are printing today—but if it wasn't for those photonics plays, I'd be full port puts. My spring put collection: COIN, APP, CRM, WDAY, GDDY, NOW, NTSK, KKR, DOCS Se you all at the bottom of the hill!
All the coders at every major AI company and every big tech company are 75% vibe coding at this point. Vibe coded CRM coming whether it’s from Salesforce or some dude in a basement lmao
A lot of these software names are beaten down AF for no real reason. Like, bro, you ain't gonna vibe code a fucking enterprise CRM.
Any opinion on TEAM? Seems very cheap but I am not very well versed in SaaS outside of CRM, ADBE, and NOW.
Still believe in the bounce in software, defense and cyber incl. But MSFT with a NOW, CRM kicker is the huge overweight
You do release most software companies like ADBE, CRM, NOW, etc... service software, are down 50% from just a few months ago? Basically, when Claude released the latest Opus. Too late to short them. The big players already saw this coming with AI months ago.
I read your other post and I think you're seeing what you want to see. AI is a fundamentally disruptive technology. I sure wouldn't invest in names like TEAM, MNDY, or even a giant like CRM. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. But even if I'm wrong, I think a lot of these companies have a long way to fall yet. TEAM doesn't even make money, despite being basically the standard, and if you look at their financials they aren't even showing improvements in operating leverage. They're basically just floating along on massive SBC, and if you think about that, it seems likely they've got a whole lot of stressed out and pissed off employees right now.
Where you think $CRM is going in next 3 weeks?
MSFT is a dead company. AI will kill them, just like with CRM and ADBE
NOW is a prospective candidate for this. Other SaaS stocks like CRM and ADBE also have significant upside potential. These are probably my most undervalued plays currently, and RKLB.
$CRM technical analysis plz, bullish or bearish in the short term?
Things can change fast, all these companies make these massive guidance predictions but all it takes is one customer to pull off to change things. Feel like SSD, NAND, RAM are the commodity piece that can be undercut by China? Maybe the Market is starting to price these massive Q's as peak ai revenue which is why AVGO, AMD and NVDA are on a downtrend. RAM was the hot trade the past 6 months. For the spending party to continue all the big software companies like MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN, ORCL, CRM, etc need to keep banging and start to see a ROI. but their stocks have been declining too, esp MSFT, CRM and ORCL. Its becoming a game of chicken as to who will crack first and if it keeps going down they're going to need that cash for payroll and share buybacks to keep the price up. my 2 bear cents.
As it turns out, JPM is truly a fucking asshole company. For CRM they had a DCB. TA shows there is another fib level for a true rally and it’s significantly lower than those 175p
If you read the author's posts, he is deeply invested in SaaS companies which is why he's been going around saying Claude Code is "shit". Plenty of software developers feel threatened by LLMs so they're incentivized to downplay it. \> Claude is a shit eating intern at best [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1r7wlma/comment/o7lhpp1/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1r7wlma/comment/o7lhpp1/) \>So the current narrative is foolish at best. I’m DCAing more in CRM, MSFT, CRWD, TEAM since they are at a deep discount with good financials and moat. [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qx2b0d/comment/o3v08q7](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qx2b0d/comment/o3v08q7)
When people compare CRM - or other CRM/ERP products and companies within this field - to ServiceNow and praise ServiceNow.. Have these people worked with ServiceNow before, or do they mostly view ServiceNow as this magnificent workflow automator? ERPs and CRMs appear as slow because they are handling immense amounts of data, corresponding to the sometimes data-heavy loads and requests users make. I have worked with ServiceNow before. All I see is a glorified ticketing system that could just as easily be threatened by competitors. Their API structure is.. decent but not more than that. Are people willing to bet on a general plug and play API request software company that doesn’t have any specific moat - at least as far as I can tell? Sorry, I just don’t buy it. My humble opinion, I really don’t get the craze about ServiceNow so please enlighten me
Let’s make one big beautiful list of high probability stocks to join CRM/ADBE/UNH etc. down in dogshit land
No, people were saying the same about ADBE and CRM a year ago too and now they have nothing
EXACTLY. Then JP Morgan telling retail to sell 175 puts on CRM despite an obvious history of dumping to 120s before going up. People/news sources you should NEVER trust. Fucking all of them.
Waiting on a good fake rally for CRM before shorting lmao. Free investing tips from JP Morgan(any company really) aren’t free. If it’s going for that fib 120-130 is going to hit(then rally hard)
JPM’s “free advice” on retail news. Sell June 2026 CRM 175 puts. Fucker is definitely headed to the 120s.
That’s a really interesting way to frame it, especially the first-principles angle. You’re right that SaaS valuation gets tricky because there isn’t a clear anchor like book value or hard assets. In many ways the “asset” is really the **installed base + switching costs + data accumulated inside the platform**, which are harder to quantify. Your AI comparison idea is interesting because it basically tests whether AI actually **breaks the switching-cost moat** that enterprise SaaS has historically relied on. If AI can replicate the workflow cheaply and reliably, then the market’s commoditization thesis might be justified. But if the real cost of rebuilding CRM functionality with AI (integration, reliability, governance, security, etc.) ends up being higher than expected, then the installed base might remain much stickier than the market assumes. That’s the part I’m trying to understand whether AI meaningfully lowers switching costs or just changes the interface layer while the underlying data and workflow moat remains intact.
That’s an impossible objective bc related to the last question, what is the book value of SaaS, how can you measure an overreaction? It really is difficult because there’s no objective data points to analyze. At least with companies with hard assets or even looking at just cash balance, you have a basis for accurate valuation (bc cash’s value doesn’t fluctuate and hard assets can be priced in real time). You’ll need to monitor a trend in FCF and even then what’s not an arbitrary timeframe? 2 quarters? 2 years? You’ll only know if it’s an overreaction vs accurate commoditized risk after it’s already occurred. Probably for you the best way to answer the question is look at the first principle: CRM SaaS and AI capability. Do a mock case study; use AI in such a way that mimics what CRM does. Then you need to ask 4 questions: 1) Does AI effectively, accurately, and consistently perform the same as Salesforce? 2) How easy/time consuming is it to use AI or set it up to act like Salesforce? 3) What is the real cost (tokens consumed, employee time used to engage, etc.) to use AI and compare to Salesforce price? 4) At what point would I use Salesforce over AI; if it were priced the same? lower? if AI companies increase their prices? It’s all speculation but you’ll be far closer to having a reasonable answer to your question than most people who are using AI news headlines, which in my opinion, are overstating the effect of AI. Not in terms of application, but more so people just are too lazy or don’t want to learn how to use the tools. Far easier to hire someone else and complain to or blame them when things go wrong. How can you blame computer code? People are significantly mispricing the ability to hold a human accountable when things go wrong.
Gonna have some Loss Porn for you all soon on CRM
I know two CRM consultants who recently lost their jobs and can’t find new work implementing and maintaining CRM. Seems like demand isn’t as strong anymore
100%. I think the key reason they are successful is not because of their product, you can see on this thread alone, everyone hates their product, the only people who like their product are the people who make money supporting and setting up Salesforce, anyway it’s because of their sales team. I think they are just very effective at selling their CRM to enterprise. They do lavish events, will wine and dine and CEO’s whereas other companies don’t go to that much effort or apply that personal touch.
Companies like ServiceNow and Workday are still seen as “high-growth workflow platforms,” while Salesforce is often labeled as a mature CRM company. Even if the cash flow is stronger, valuation multiples tend to follow growth stories more than current profitability.
I’ve heard this from a lot of people who actually use it. What’s interesting though is that historically enterprise software doesn’t win because users love it it wins because switching is painful. If a Fortune 500 company has: years of CRM data integrations across sales, marketing, and support custom workflows built on top of Salesforce Switching costs become enormous. That’s why I was curious whether the market is pricing in AI actually lowering those switching costs for the first time.
That’s actually one of the paradoxes of enterprise software. A lot of dominant platforms are not loved by users they’re entrenched because companies have built their entire workflows around them. That’s part of why I’m curious whether AI changes the switching-cost dynamic for CRM systems. If it doesn’t, Salesforce’s installed base is incredibly valuable.
I’ve heard this from a lot of people who actually use it. What’s interesting though is that historically enterprise software doesn’t win because users love it it wins because switching is painful. If a Fortune 500 company has: years of CRM data integrations across sales, marketing, and support custom workflows built on top of Salesforce Switching costs become enormous. That’s why I was curious whether the market is pricing in AI actually lowering those switching costs for the first time.
You are missing the fact that the market is future/forward looking. It’s the same reason why any company that reports great earnings (i.e. beats EPS/Rev/Margins etc which are related to the same valuation metrics you focused on) gets hit when forward guidance is bad. Your valuation is based on TODAY’s FCF; but the market is saying they don’t want to pay for TODAY’s FCF they want to pay for 2027,28,29 etc FCF. What changed is CRM has always been a premium product that defended its pricing power, but the market is factoring in the fact that AI is going to commoditize their service. The other companies you mentioned may be due to more growth/retail sentiment or some AI news driven speculation who knows. But CRM’s valuation has always been a dominant staple in pricing power that’s going to swing in the other direction… a commodity, at least that’s what the market believes. Since it’s a technology company that’s sells a service, it difficult to use traditional Buffet valuation metrics bc they have no hard assets. In other words, what’s the true book value of a SaaS company?
The fact that the software is expensive is a positive thing for CRM stock, because literally every Fortune 500 company uses it. They don’t care what it costs, they’re paying it anyway because it’s what they’re used to. Same thing for the teams of people you mention. That makes them more money, because CRM isnt paying for those people, their clients are. AI is a disruptor for sure but most industries already have regulations in place that severely restrict how it can be used professionally (finance and medicine for example). Also, as a software ware company they are in a better position than most to assimilate that technology and monetize it. Salesforce is undervalued given the volume of product they pump out to virtually every major business. If I had any spare cash whatsoever I would definitely toss some into the stock and check back in a couple years, it’s only a matter of time before the masses realize it.
I was bullish on CRM until I saw this: "Something to consider with $CRM is this company has a bonkers SBC program that really dilutes shareholder value. Their TTM stock based compensation is 3 billion dollars! That's more than Vermont's state general fund budget. So their diluted SBC per share is 3.2! Compare this to their non-gaap ttm eps of 6.89 (their real non- gaap TTM eps should be 3.89 per share). If you go on a financial site and see 35 ttm PE...they are basing this off a non-gaap eps WITHOUT SBC. If you add back in SBC that number would be way worse. When you see Salesforce's P/E of 35x on a major finance site, you are being shown an artificially low number. The true cost of your investment is almost double that advertised rate, due to the $3 billion annual SBC cost."
MSFT, CRM have +25% rebounds by summer. US based memory stocks have +25-50% upside by fall. Silver and Copper demand are going up for the foreseeable future. Defense stocks will be in a secular bull market for the next 20 years.
Is anyone else holding CRM calls? Am I completely fucked?
I paper handed CRM puts with $175 profit which could have been $600
if you follow the stocks this sub loves long term, some are making $$$ on NVDA and GOOG and the rest already went through pain on CRM, MSFT, PLTR, and RDDT. Not sure the market in general is down that much