CRTX

Internal_Ad_1091

Congrats on your massive gains and as the regarded would say, f*!k u :). The last 2 years in this market have been incredibly humbling for a long. Let's be honest, you could have shorted tesla (instead of SAVA) or literally anything, and walked away with massive gains. Don't conflate a pessimistic/skeptical market for a fair/rational one (all based on price action 🙄). 1) The Adas Cog scores continue to be stellar. If the data are reproduced in P3, there is only one way to describe it, a breakthrough. 2) Despite #1, the data is NOT as good as the first 50 cohort or the second 50, but at *12 months* it is unrivaled. Especially, the mild AD response rate. 3) Also for perspective, the sell-off is not a terminal one. No matter how you look at it, SAVA is still valued at over a billion dollars. A company with no revenue, a single drug in its pipe, and at least 2 years from making money is valued at a billion dollars. Yes, in this beast of a market that is feasting on speculation. Powell is on our ass, so how and why is SAVA worth 1 billion? Ecor a biotech investment hedge fund recently bought 10’s millions of dollars of SAVA, why? Jones and its well-ranked biotech analyst reiterated the buy rating and increased the PT to $100. The list goes on for a while. If the market believed SAVa is a failure its market cap wouldn't be over a billion consistently for the last 2 years. Short-term the markets are wild, but this Mr. Markets valuation over the last 2 years. One inkling that SAVA is a failure, it would be worth less than cash. CRTX fell 90% when it released data the market didn't like. 3) I remember you from the discord. You were trying to convince us that the 6-minute walk test in 5 young patients is the same as Cognitive improvement in 50 old patients with Alzheimer's. That's laughable. I've read your disingenuous posts and dug into the data you provided. What a waste and how disingenuous. We have argued about this extensively and if you want to rely on that logic (that placebo is the same in the two cohorts above) then please post your long-term short position and let's see how it plays out over the next two years. I'm not wasting my time arguing or going in circles. My stance has not changed. 90% chance SAVA will go to over $1000 and a 10% chance we go to $0. SAVA is a unique asymmetric bet for the ages. At least we both agree, it won't be sitting at $28 in two years. Again, congrats on your gains, but it isn't because of the data. Good luck!

PlayBollinger

The CTAD presentation won't be released in advance of CTAD, but the top line result of the clinical trial will be released when it's available. There's been discussion of this in other internet forums and some guy even said he's confirmed with AVXL IR that the TLD is not going to be "saved" for December 1. The SEC would look down upon AVXL holding back such material news for a scheduled show. Note that CRTX last year and BIIB this year both announced TLD in advance of their CTAD presentations.

Analgod350

👆 this guy fucks like I do. Lost $50k on AMC in 2021 on options, $8k on SPCE in July 2021, then got raped on CRTX cus of an offering. When a company doesnt spit first, or even offer a Vaseline dab prior to sticking it in, you realize the cash is gone because of a SL and your numb for a few hours. Then the next time it doesn't hurt as much. Paper hands , paper pucker. Pain disappears. Fuxkin yolos. Treat that shit as if it's gone the second your order fills. Just how I treated my wife. She's gone too. Her boyfriends a cool dude tho. He cash apps me for 0DTE SPY CALLS as long as I split the tendies.

Apprehensive_Quit_83

QNCX (used to be CRTX) and BBBY.

RAGE_CAKES

Member CRTX?

Internal_Ad_1091

We are in phase 3 of clinical testing, and the cog data is what matters. Western blots are irrelevant. (For like the 100th time). But you lack this understanding, and that's why you were bullish on CRTX. Basic science and its data do not make successful biotech. Clinical data does.

BHapi1

Check out CRTX, great hypotheses and data. Just need to work through liver effects. Way better than SAVA and BIIB and their fake data.

Pretend_Vanilla_5080

Oh please, CRTX has a better chance treating gum disease than Alzheimer.

Pretend_Vanilla_5080

You’re talking about the p. gingivitis drug that CRTX spins. Fake correlation btw.

BurningOrangeHeaven

>CRTX currently trades for less than the cash on its balance sheet. Probably because these companies burn cash.

Pretend_Vanilla_5080

Oh gawd, CRTX does not treat Alzheimer. Their drug is only capable of treating the plaque bacteria. Alzheimer is more complex than just the inflammation. We know there is a change in the protein structure and accumulation of amyloid plaque.

burrysputs

CRTX is testing a drug under the hypothesis that a bacterium P Spinosa is the root cause of at least some dementias. The nervous system creates the plaques as an immune response. The literature has a lot of interesting data supporting this hypothesis. CRTX is testing a drug that inhibits P Spinosa from eating healthy cells. It should advance to Phase 3 by 2023. CRTX currently trades for less than the cash on its balance sheet. All companies operating under the tau protein or plaque hypothesis are committing fraud.

Infamous-Capital3491

Thought the same thing about CRTX and PTPI. Truth is MOASS is coming and everything else will crash and you’ll be holding the bag

VisualMod

I am a bot from /r/wallstreetbets. You submitted one or more banned tickers: CRTX. Message /u/zjz if they're above 1.5 billion-ish market cap and not related to crypto/pennies/OTC.

VisualMod

I am a bot from /r/wallstreetbets. You submitted one or more banned tickers: CRTX. Message /u/zjz if they're above 1.5 billion-ish market cap and not related to crypto/pennies/OTC.

Nofapforfreedoms

I know it sounds like I’m joking, but seriously. Look at CRTX. 1 FDA disappointment tanked the stock 74% in a day and it hasn’t recovered. That’s just one out of many.

gsoroch

Check please CRTX looks like has potential to squeeze or I’m wrong ?

gsoroch

CRTX

gsoroch

Check CRTX please

Infamous-Capital3491

CRTX 😉

Infamous-Capital3491

Whoever down voted my CRTX comment can now shove that up yours lol

Infamous-Capital3491

CRTX today ha

Infamous-Capital3491

CRTX also looking like a pretty spicy MEATABALL

stoltenberggg

Those are great points! Appreciate your reply. I forgot about the merger- that'll be interesting. I'm sadly not holding my breath, but I will be holding my bags of CRTX til zero, or at least previous ATH haha.

Ok_Platypus_8606

CRTX

stoltenberggg

So, how are we feeling about CRTX nowadays? I'm sitting on some leaps (from about the time of your original post) and trying to decide to cut losses or exercise...

Brads-Brew-Lab

Holy shit mang, you’re still about and long CRTX?

doctorpot1

It depends on the historical IV% too. Just saying implied volatility is 100% doesn't tells us much. If historical IV% is also around 100%, then there is no IV crush to worry about. If the historical IV% is 30% then IV crush becomes a concern. I did an option trade with CRTX before before their 2nd clinical trial result announcement. Their IV% was 1000% and historical IV% was 120%. So after the announcement the IV crush was crazy. Sold a $15 PUT 30 DTE when the price was $60 after announcement the price drop all the way down to $14. I was ok the wrong side of the trade and yet I earn a 25% gain. So do find out what is the historical IV% too. I doubt the current IV% and historical IV% deviates too much for your PUT as the DTE is so far away.

givemebuck

Peace to everyone I know a lot of you have their Blood Pressure up! Take it easy guys! Better days are coming... My Stocks for the day... $CRTX $AEI $KTRA $SBFM

Internal_Ad_1091

LMAO. Unluckyprize was trying to convince the world to buy CRTX based on basic science as there was no human/clinical data. That study essentially failed, and the stock fell 90% in one day. Are you still holding CRTX? Or have you learned that basic science and western blots are meaningless without human trial data? That is precisely why the FDA cares about safety and efficacy in humans. Western blots don't translate to human data, especially when variations are being disingenuously framed as fraud. What does the human data show? They have the most robust results of any US-based trial ever. Quanterix is an independent lab with a correlation between Dr. Wang's work and Their results. As I started in my post, the FDA's actions (approving more human trials) clearly speak volumes about Sava's integrity. The NIH continues to disburse funds to SAVA. CUNY's deadline is May 16th. That is an accurate 30,000 ft view. Your "30,000" argument ignores the cognitive data in walking, talking humans, which 😆. the Also, cash value is around $7, not 60 cents. The general market is the only actual risk you pointed out. Everything else is minutiae.

calebsurfs

Thanks for highlighting the key points and weighing in. I always appreciate your comments. The point of the strategy is precisely about finding overpriced premium and selling it. I have a sweet spot where I like to sell and if it's extraordinarily high I wait for the next trade. (Remember CRTX? Insanely high IV before it drilled. I sold spreads after the drop, when IV was much lower but still overpriced). Losing on 15% of the trades is important to consider and why I emphasize that it's important to cut losses and not double down. If I had just taken the initial loss on NUE I'd be down $300 instead of $3000 and my return on risk for the year would still be above 20%. So yes, a slightly lower win rate would be better for situations like this.

mountainhb

Any low float stocks to day trade that swing up and down 5-10% daily Been looking at MYSZ. BEDU. HOUR. CRTX

5999s

/u/Unlucky-Prize saw your name and CRTX in the previous daily. Mind explaining your thoughts on what happened to CRTX? Your DD back then was very convincing

BrainsNotBrawndo

[Here is the CRTX guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/qght6a/crtx_what_next/) for context. Biotech can be a brutal game, respect for his effort. His earned flair still makes me laugh tho

Internal_Ad_1091

Were you the CRTX bull? 😆. FDA isn't halting trials; while there absolutely are risks, this is not one of them. Faulty logic will get to buy fundamentally weak stocks like CRTX. The big difference between SAVA and CRTX is Sava's Cognitive data over 12 months was spectacular. If the stock price falls, the cognitive data is still stunning. CRTX fell because the data sucks. The point being CRTX has a fundamental Issue while SAVA is still fundamentally strong based on the Cognitive data.

U-GenGaming

Hi I'm a Belgian accountant age 27. My thoughts ​ ET seems a decent dividend company. Won't comment on ETFs SCOR is losing money, growth in revenue. A shit company in my opinion. The company has - book value. It's shit. Try to sell it at an opportune time or hope they get more business post covid. WISA also losing money. They have cash though and are growing revenue. I would never invest in a company that has yet to turn a profit ever, but up to you to take that risk. TRUE also losing money. Revenue is shit in my opinion. Plenty competition, no clue why you would buy this company and not one that turns a profit. The future of this company to me seems very frail. Cash to burn, but that is what they will do I think. Burn the cash, get bought by someone else who is running it well. QMCO another company losing money. Revenue growth is shit. They offer storage? Big companies do it and they don't seem to be doing their part well. Cash is about burnt up. get rid of this trash. BIRD another company losing money. Revenue growth is ok but they are increasing their losses while turnover is growing. So many apparel stores exist and they are honestly a bad business. Small margins and most die out fast. Get rid of this stock, way better sectors exist and even in apparel you can get better stocks. CRTX a classical pharma company. Making huge losses with the promise of big medicine in the future. Don't buy pharma unless you know the market or they already turn a profit. Pharma without a product is a gamble and they only burn up money. Sure if they make a cure or treatment it can be big bucks. I'd buy them WHEN they have it. Net you'll make more buying them on achievment and not owning all the garbage compared to the guy who wanted all the promises before it was a thing. (many just sizzle out) To me you seem like a young guy who is ready to risks other don't have the balls to take. A good trait, but take smart risks. You seem to look at 1 thing only. The stock price and maybe the story. A company is NOT a stock price. Look up the long term graphs of your stocks and you'll see a trend. A downwards trend. Get companies that make money and focus on fundamentals like profits and balance sheet. So many on reddit act like the candle technical BS will make em rich. It won't. It's proven it won't and they all get mad when you say this. But they can't prove me wrong. Accounting is simple and it works, use it. I'm willing to teach the basics of fundamentals to you, just PM me.

MontaukMonster2

Current positions: CEI, XELA, SNDL, PLX, CRF, and CRTX

BUDDHA_LAUGHING

CRTX is shorted for a good reason, a failed study, same with VLON. Dyslexia could cost you on this.

Emergency_Function97

My bad… I was looking at CRTX

drew2f

Damnit. I own CRTX

donatelo200

I assume you meant to type $CRXT? $CRTX is in a downtrend while $CRXT is mooning hard.

donatelo200

If you want a gamble. $CRTX. It's moving hard AH right now. I have no PT other than oh LAWD SHE GOING UP.

Maybe_Awesome22

So I looked at the ticker before and my dyslexic ass thought this was CRTX. I was like huh, so Cortexyme is hot now? Derr...

Onlyliv1nce

I made money on BBAI 2 weeks ago, I got in really early, if volume picks up I would consider re entering, I think it’s dead in the water without volume. I just started a position in CRTX right before close, I think it has a chance to make a nice run. Has some decent volume. GL

janneell

When you get married to stock that's the outcome, I feel fucking liberated after selling that piece of shit Bbig last week , I made from CRTX ,STSS and BRQS in a day that I would have made from TyDe lol

WellHungSnorlax

Stop trying to make CRTX happen. The CEO was ousted and given a million Dallas severance after there stock lost 80% of its 12 dollar value, after dropping from 100

speedygonzo1019

Yup its happened with CEI, PPSI, and CRTX.... idk who to believe on here.

stockly123456

I had a great one with CRTX.. 60k vaporized in 0.1ms I got greedy and thought I couldn't lose - shitty biotech was there with a lesson BMTX was also a huge loss which I have only just recovered from this week to ATH :-)

prbsrmdm

CRTX

BHapi1

CRTX, high risk, high reward alzheimer stock that has efficacy, but some liver effects that are being worked out.

prbsrmdm

CRTX

speedygonzo1019

100% this. Same shit happened to PPSI, CRTX, CLOV,.... to name a few.

prbsrmdm

CRTX

Pretend_Vanilla_5080

He mentioned CRTX and look what happened to that.

Unlucky-Prize

CRTX. It has problems, but consider, pre trial results: \- No one believed their disease theory (PG might cause alzheimers) had validity \- No one believed their drug would do anything even if that was true \- And even it did, maybe the company would screw up, or the drug would have some other issues? Market priced the stock as maybe 5% chance of success. The trial failed and the stock went down 90% since then... the drug has since been halted for safety by FDA, but the drug DID appear to work in the way expected for a sub-group of those who had PG infection detectable in saliva. But, the company did find a valid target and proved their disease theory in my opinion. They have a new candidate they are running now, but the company is trading at cash, despite having the sole placebo-controlled valid target to treat Alzheimer's at this point.

speedygonzo1019

Same thing happened to PPSI and CRTX... and a bunch of other stocks on Herr. I'm not budging.

DifferentPop9977

If they can short a stock on good news/earnings to basically fuck retail then why can’t we just buy the shit out of a stock like CRTX which is heavily shorted and on hold by the FDA. Shit is super cheap and there is only like 30 million shares and half are available to the public. Seems like a few whales could destroy this.

pork-head

I cry in CRTX

askingforafakefriend

Yeah totally he's gonna lose it all betting on a company with very promising phase 2 data, zero safety issues, insiders buying not selling... My condolences to you and your CRTX failed investments...

stoltenberggg

But but but, what about CRTX?

LostinNYC22

Am I the only one that sees the potential in CRTX?

Own-Dream-8425

Forgot how much moolah I invested in alzheimers-fighting company CRTX . shit owell

Own-Dream-8425

Thinking to YOLO on CRTX - 40% shorted

Mike499999

CRTX one of the highest shorted stocks on the market with an insanely low float. Missed on their FDA approvals. Im in for some lotto plays to burn down the shorts on this one

Mike499999

CRTX most heavily shorted stock at the moment. Like it as a lotto play!

Dirty_Money_Jordan

Not true, through all of the manipulation and FUD SAVA has been through, the FDA has never halted or stopped trials for their drug. CRTX was considered SAVA’s main competitor, they have multiple trials halted by the FDA, including one just a couple weeks ago by the FDA. CRTX’s stock price decreased because of bad trials and concerns, SAVA’s stock decreased because of pure manipulation.

Itchy-Bookkeeper2465

This guy's a CRTX Bagholder. Don't mind him

Packernole69

CRTX set to be squoze niiiceeeeeee and hard. Highest short interest, up on low volume today, bug AH purchases. Prime.

CluelessPop

What say you about CRTX?

Chigh_town311

I'm not entirely certain, but my hope is they give a more definitive response. The Propecia petition was trying to get an existing product pulled from the market whereas the SAVA one is trying to get an actual trial that is actively recruiting shut down. I'd say we're about 85/15 that the FDA rules in favor of Cassava. But there's a nightmare scenario where the trials get paused until further investigating gets done. It's tough to envision it happening, but they possibility exists. My current average is $36.14, so depending where things are at with the share price the week of Valentine's Day, I may set a stop loss a little bit above my average (like $36.50 or thereabouts) just so I don't end up losing on it. If by some miracle we can run up to $50+, I may set the stop loss around $45 just for that week. I don't want to get caught in a CRTX or ANVS type situation where I'm losing 50%+ of my money on it. But enough of doom and gloom; the flip side could mean a run up to $100+! Let's hope that happens.

prbsrmdm

CRTX

prbsrmdm

Next is CRTX 🚀🚀🚀🚀🌚🌚🌚🌚

MrDee97

CRTX 😢

MontaukMonster2

Positive for me; I scooped up a hundred shares of $MTTR at about $9.50 and another hundred $BB for less than $8. I also got some $CRF under $13 and $CRTX for under $9. Then stupid Vanguard started with this whole "cash hasn't cleared yet" bullshit when I was about to grab some fucking $GOGL for $7 and change. I was a gorgeous day, and I don't know when I'll ever see that kind of sale again.

askingforafakefriend

Look up insider trading for CRTX leading up to their their data release. A whole lot of selling and then big surprise. Bad results published. now look up Sava. Insiders were up like 20x this year alone and didn't sell a dime. Tells you something They can't say directly

Unlucky-Prize

Oh my fate calls went to zeerrroo, so that was like $100k of loss, then maybe $200k on shares too lol. I have lots of shares though and bought more. That's biotech! Especially in 2021. I think the CP will delay and delay. Key controlling event if I had to guess is Wang. And I think if CUNY moves to fire Wang, it must be sometime between this week and end of April. He may have a contract that allows him to fight it for a while, but the university will issue retractions in this case. ​ To my prior remarks - I've made good and bad trades, but my science track record is pretty good. \- Called Moderna as going to work when people were really quite skeptical and told me I was a moron. Made a lot on that one. \- Called CRTX mode of action being correct and likely to be effective. Most thought that was insane (That a bacteria would cause Alzheimer's). Well, drug trial failed, but the drug MoA does work, and does actually control Alzheimer's in people with active infections. So wrong on drug trial design, but right on science. Stock down 80% on that, but, the main risk was their theory being wrong -it's not. I think the mispricing is insane because I think their new trial will get approved and work, at which point the stock is worth $500+. \- Fate TBD - I think their new edits probably will work in solving their durability issues, but they've not failed, and progress has continued.

Unlucky-Prize

CRTX, unlike SAVA, actually has placebo controlled evidence of efficacy, and a lot of it btw. If they do a new trial and get similar results, they will get approved, and annual sales would be at least a few billion a year in profit once rolled out IMO. That drug seems to roughly halve the rate of Alzheimer's decay for about half of the patient group. Their trial design sucked, so they have to do a new trial. But they are trading at 1/8th the value of SAVA because they do not pump the stock relentlessly to retail, and don't puff their data for the benefit of retail.

B1gChuckDaddySr

So was ATER ISIG SENS PPSI PTPI RELI CRTX AVCT AUVI MBOT

B1gChuckDaddySr

ESSC BFRI ISIG SENS AVCT AUVI CRTX PPSI and PTPI are the plays

Brilliant_Effective3

CRTX has over 57% of short interest. https://www.highshortinterest.com/

prbsrmdm

CRTX 🚀🚀🚀🚀🌚🌚🌚🌚

TechNerd007

BBIG was a trap…We loose focus, folks….catalyzed by professional dilutors following orders of their hedgies … RELI CRTX AVCT

TechNerd007

BBIG was a trap. Focus on: RELI CRTX AVCT period

B1gChuckDaddySr

CRTX is the play

sludge_dawkins

ESSC is the better play. Retail has two days to capitalize on this. Currently has 3x (300%) the float ITM for Friday. If it gets about $12.5, that’s 5x the float or 500% that needs to be accounted for. If this sub actually wanted it squeeze something, all that stock needs a push. CRTX is dependent on FDA approval, until then, shorts have control because you have no momentum pending approval. That is not the case with ESSC. This is in retail’s control. ESSC is beyond market makers control right now. We can have it if we want it. The NAV floor is $10.26. Retail let the drama get in the way of making money. If you all were serious about squeezing a stock, it’s ESSC. Served on a gold platter, the only thing missing is volume and positive sentiment.

B1gChuckDaddySr

I thought BFRI CRTX ESSC AVCT AUVI PPSI PTPI were the real things

BrainsNotBrawndo

I have reviewed the patient dropouts in detail, and selection criteria, and everything else, and all of it is already accounted for in my assessment. I am satisfied with the dropout rate, low since there is no side effects, and actual patient families who show improvement are going to stay. Reviewing the Ads-COG scores of SAVA plotted against all the AA/BTD monoclonal Abs recently, the gap is just so profound, my impression is that the amount of any adjustment to be made for that is still going to go to approval, on no side effects alone, even if could just match efficacy of existing candidates. Alzheimer is a clinical diagnosis, it's not feasible to do brain biopsies to prove diagnosis, but that is the same for all Alzheimer therapy candidates. If anything, I would reckon future patient outcomes would need to be adjusted a bit to the downside as people who would like to see SAVA fail storm a site, and try to poison results by signing up by faking clinical symptoms (my understanding is that some shorts posted pictures of patients in a waiting room that they tried to go snoop in on, which is of questionable ethics and may be illegal in some locations, alas). I would be cautious with 'shorts pointed it out' as a reason, when you earlier say you don't trust neither shorts nor longs. The concern would be reinforcing a cognitive bias. I do salute you for taking your reward/risk acumen of Alzheimer drugs in good fun with a '*Bullet to the CRTX'* flair as a mark of Cain reminder on how that one went, though the story is never over. For everyone betting on a red, there is someone on black, we are just on different sides of this trade, the drug will get approved or not, and I will salute the winners.

BrainsNotBrawndo

Cannabinoids sit on the sidelines for some things if not a patentable molecule. While the recent CoVid finding was a surprise to me, though I haven't looked at the details, I would reckon there is not going to be any cannabinoid disease modifying for Alzheimer that makes it to market. Things like Metformin may end up having a role for many diseases of old age from a neuroinflammation, blood vessel protection, and 'Diabetes Type 3' neurological approach. That would be great since Metformin has a multi-year safety history, and cheap to make, but the challenge is getting someone to pony up the billions for the proof, though as I understand some poor countries are running some longitudinal trials. So it is what it is: patentable small molecules for now, that can then someday go generic. If one thinks that all the clinical sites are going to somehow collude and pull shenanigans with patients: dropouts, selection bias, faking results, putting patients in without Alzheimer, etc, there is not much I do to change that belief. Ditto on placebo at the 9 month mark: it's one thing to have placebo for pain or depression, but cognition is more like rabies: tougher to feel like you are better when the responses are just wrong. We already have good placebo data for other FDA candidates and just vastly outpacing. The thing is though, all of those those pitfalls are already in the calculus of my 40% risk of failure already, before any short petition existed. For following the Twitterati, like the poster you linked to, I would consider this: if the short petitioners really thought they were helping the world, why not pursue Aduhelm that was more likely to be harming patients? Why wait right to the Theranos trial start date to try to maximize fear, then comment that CEO and lead scientist are man and wife just like Theranos to try to cash in on people's cognitive bias of false equivalency? If thought that was all a fraud, why not let the SAVA price run, and then could short at $400 or $250 with very little short interest costs? For me, it just strains credulity to think that shorts are somehow out to help retail. The summation of all the data together is why I opt to be on the bull side of this trade. With regards to the strategy of waiting until the placebo trial is done, then investing in SAVA, some funds do exactly that, but with a recognition that at that point, that is more of an arbitrage type of play for a few percentage point gain with very little meat left on the bone. Moreover, because this is a disease modifier with a large unmet need, the timeline I reckon is not going to complete phase 3 before BTD. This is why the relatively small milestones along the point from here to a BTD cause such large gaps upward. I have reviewed CRTX in moderate detail as part of a standard competitive review of taking a relatively large (for me) position in SAVA. Although I won't invest in CRTX in the near term, I wish you good luck in the play there and hope that they can have a part to play in fixing Alzheimer.

BrainsNotBrawndo

Have a small stake in AVXL (\~1/30th of SAVA stake). I like that AVXL almost done a phase 3, have a big pharma partner already, decent results on cognition. Headwinds of I don't want to also pay for a long pipeline of other early stage stuff, has Australian base despite NY website address, and they didn't bother following Ads-COG scores nor really communicating with FDA for a proper FDA route for approval so while might get some international approvals, not likely going to USA for years yet. Never had a CRTX stake, though I wish them well as with all Alzheimer treatment hunters. For DeSPACs or other short targets (which I did play successfully albeit with small stakes), the major difference between them and SAVA is the value of an item on the end. Shorts can try to drive an Overstock toward zero so that confidence is impacted, and can't grow, then never deliver the shorted shares for a bankrupt company. But for SAVA, they don't need sentiment, nor momentum nor new investor cash to come in. If their drug works as in phase 2, shares are worth $500, period. I am not in the camp that thinks there will be a dramatic short squeeze, because I don't think the institutional shorts have conviction in the trade, and will have ponied up for calls to exit losses, since they know they can be in trouble quickly. The chart for the last few months for SAVA show how much things can spike up without warning, even on very small positive news items. So if there is a great news day, it's going to be a nuclear bomb on uncovered shorts. Which makes buying the calls expensive, which again makes it seem to me that there is less value for SAVA as a short target in and of itself, need to have a money maker elsewhere from the play. From a TA point of view, stock was at $140 or so in Aug prior to a short petition, and since then: FDA approved special protocol authorizations for phase 3 (notably, approving it *after* having received the short petition), the 9 month data came out as a home run, monoclonal antibody competitors got thumbs down from Medicare unless in a clinical trial, phase 3 trial sites are booming, and now some of the physicians/researchers/patients families are coming forward to speak about their experience with the patients of phase 2 trials directly. So for a derisked asset, it's roughly a third of the price, which to me as a value investor I am satisfied with. Though I agree not everyone wants to buy derisked, beaten-down value stocks, it matches my personality. Ask WFC shorts how their last 2 years went. I alas disagree with your statement that *"no one thinks their approval is imminent except the SAVAges"*. Check the [institutional ownership](https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.html?symb=SAVA&subView=institutional): Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, Charles Schwab. Samford Robertson on the board is a Silicon Valley tech legend and on the Salesforce board. The New Jersey pension fund opened a new stake in $60s last quarter *after* short citizen petition. May get some color on SAVA next week from the principal investigator physician at Princeton Medical Institute, who: correctly called that will plaques seem to be result not cause of disease, ran 300 drug trials, and was part of the original Aricept approval trial.

Unlucky-Prize

I'm only long CRTX of those, but following AVXL. CRTX has the best evidence of efficacy of the three (Because the placebo controlled evidence is very good). For short interest - that is a key question. Part of why I'm drawing attention to this is the 20% borrow rate. Stocks do not stay there unless a lot of money expects an imminent collapse. Short squeeze enthusiasts see it as a pending short squeeze, and that's true to a degree, but most of these massive % borrow fees lead to massive price declines - commonly seen on DeSpacs due to PIPE holders pre-selling when they can, or on other non-standard mergers of that kind (like with [support.com](https://support.com) and greenidge). 20% isn't yet absurd, but it's accelerating. At 50%+, it's a very strong signal of imminent collapse. As to who would do that? Well, someone with a lot of conviction as to the direction and the timing. I don't think the FDA would leak a decision, but I do think CUNY academic affairs could, and I think a journal could, and either of those would give a hedge fund conviction to swing very hard if they knew the approximate date. Of course, this could just be people wrongly playing the petition timing. But it's a large borrow rate, and it appears institutional given the news flow. In the case SAVA get's their IND pulled, they are back to square zero, and are heavily discredited, and owe $225m in bonuses already to execs. Those will likely be clawed back in that situation, but technically the company is worth $25m net value in that case, and there will be a lot of legal claims. Even if those bonuses get evaporated, that's 240m cash being challenged by shareholder lawsuits and government fines - could easily burn through 100m of that. Then you are talking about $5 a share. That's a good short - cover at $10. I don't think the market sees LLY/BIIB related to SAVA. SAVA is it's own beast. No one thinks their approval is imminent except the SAVAges.

BrainsNotBrawndo

I agree with you on the value on original verifiable items, or the least steps between oneself and the data. I am not sure that the short interest motivation is to make money off shorting SAVA directly, since I assess the risk/return as so asymmetric to the upside. Some shorts have been apparently been short since single digit share price, so they may have a cognitive bias, but I don't think the cognitive bias is enough by itself to explain the short interest. My impression for the next two years for SAVA is a 60% chance of a ten-bagger (based on market cap change in BIIB and LLY on their antibody approval news release days) and a 40% chance of SAVA being cut to cash value (\~$7). While I appreciate that some of the possible shorts like Point72 perform poorly lately (pulling up last years graph of their performance), SAVA is a still a bizarre choice to short currently, considering there are many biotechs are going to face poor sentiment with a rising rate environment, debt, cranky VCs, and candidates 10 years down the road. This is in contrast to Cassava with $240M in the bank to finish a phase 3, no debt, and the CEO on ER reports a non-dilutive infusion is pending (which I reckon would be a big pharma partner, my odds-on favorite being Pfizer since cash-rich, PFE on their own ER that wanting to go shopping for juniors, and PFE's Aricept license runs out in 2022). So when risk/reward benefit is so tilted against shorts, I reckon the gain would need to be elsewhere. I do comment that BIIB wiped off around $27B from FDA approval through to the Medicare ruling, so perhaps one could gain from trying to temporarily protect a BIIB or LLY long position, or fundraising for a junior before the VC biotech market dries up markedly. I hear you on FDA caution to not have egg on their face, but I think the political push to have a functioning, relatively low cost, disease-modifying pill for fixing Alzheimer would be a giant win for everyone involved in the country. The most jingoistic could use a modified line from the announcer from Watchmen: "I repeat, the super pill exists, and it is American". Anyways, best of luck in the trade. The world needs more people that are at least putting a spotlight onto investing bets on Alzheimer meds (whether it be SAVA, AVXL, CRTX or others), not fewer.

Araniet

You remember GME back in January right? Was my initial answer but can seem condescending and not funny. So I'll go with: While you have a point, SI means nothing if that is accumulated at around 8$ and higher. Look at CRTX for example. It has a massive SI but that goes all the way to 100$. The problem with BBIG is that people need to hold until those price levels are achieved. To force shorts to cover it needs to be like PROG which held the SP long enough to force covering and margin calls. And seeing how it gets hyped on social media I just don't believe it will sustain the share price needed for it. Again, as I said, I really hope it goes your way as I detest the way a supposedly free market is being used to rip off money of those who are in need of it. Also don't missunderstand, what I'm saying is not to stay away from BBIG but to make careful decisions and to not YOLO into it because of hype. Fundamentally BBIG, MMAT, SEAC (to name a few) should all trade higher than they currently do. Even tho BBIG had had its issues it still is promising when merging and becoming ZASH. But that doesn't matter if they can't build confidence in it's shareholders. And it also takes time. Something most traders here aren't interested in.

Nofapdeity

Sorry, meant CRTX not CNTX. Same shit basically. Their pipeline had bad news and the stock tanked.

prbsrmdm

CRTX🚀🚀🚀🚀🌚🌚🌚🌚

sammy2607

AVCT AMC CRTX are the plays for now

risc9558

No it’s not the same. u/unlucky-prize is a different person :) That’s a fairytale you’re trying to tell me now. This would imply that SAVA thinks they have a miracle drug that reverses AD where the average (!) person improves in his/her ADAS-Cog11 score over time. That would mean there must be patients in the sample (in the top decile, e.g.) who show a difference compared to placebo of at least 10 or 12 points, if not more. The scale of ADAS-Cog11 goes from 0 to 70, with a higher score indicating greater cognitive impairment. Their Day 1 mean score was (according to their poster) 16.73. That is extremely, extremely mild AD. To the contrary, Cortexyme’s Day 1 mean was 23.70. They also had mild to moderate AD patients in their GAIN study sample. Next, SAVA only has 46% of females (see poster lower left) whereas CRTX’s average is 58%. It is known that AD is significantly more likely in woman than in men. Further, SAVA’s MMSE sample mean is also significantly more skewed to very mild forms of AD, with a mean of 22.7 compared to 18.5 in CRTX. Nobody believes this out there without a phase 3. There is even natural aging that lowers your score in this age group over time. Cells that are already “dead” can’t be brought back to life through Simufilam. This can only be achieved if there are people in the sample of 50 who don’t have any AD, or if the (very small) sample of 50 people is highly, highly selected. This form of sample selection is impossible in a randomized phase 3 as mentioned above (FDA standard). I think they also use the clinical word “baseline” in a different meaning (i.e., for the placebo group rather than in relation to month 0). Where can this interview be found?

risc9558

Sold AMC with 600% profit and currently breaking even on CRTX. So I'm fine with that. FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. I'm not spreading FUD. #1 and #2 are facts. They are public information that can be verified by everybody who can read financial statements and SEC filings. Hence there is no Uncertainty and no Doubt. #1 and #2 are just true statements. If this brings fear to you, then you should not trade based on emotions, but based on rational expectations / decision making.

NFG89

Where is that dude that was shilling CRTX long plays here a while ago. Biotech man, shits volatile.

Ngabbard84

Is anyone in CRTX? Been holding this bitch for a while and it keeps going down. Or sideways

B1gChuckDaddySr

I thought BFRI RELI CRTX AVCT AUVI were the plays